WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Gershon Distenfeld & Anna Wong

0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:16.040
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea on

0:00:16.160 --> 0:00:19.440
<v Speaker 1>a two hour broadcast, that's what we could do today.

0:00:19.440 --> 0:00:24.080
<v Speaker 1>There was so much material and the newsflow just overwhelming

0:00:24.760 --> 0:00:27.240
<v Speaker 1>through the Thank you to the Bloomberg News team a

0:00:27.320 --> 0:00:32.200
<v Speaker 1>sleepless night covering this horror in Utah. We greatly appreciate that.

0:00:32.280 --> 0:00:35.320
<v Speaker 1>Of course, the FBI with a conference and I'm sure

0:00:35.320 --> 0:00:38.640
<v Speaker 1>there'll be more news through the day. The President of

0:00:38.640 --> 0:00:42.240
<v Speaker 1>the United States speaking on this eleventh of September at

0:00:42.280 --> 0:00:46.919
<v Speaker 1>the Pentagon. Go to Wikipedia and go down flight seventy

0:00:47.000 --> 0:00:51.360
<v Speaker 1>seven and the paragraphs of what was lost at the

0:00:51.400 --> 0:00:55.240
<v Speaker 1>Pentagon is just heartbreaking. I think it's a lot of

0:00:55.320 --> 0:00:58.840
<v Speaker 1>things Americans don't know. There's New York, and there's all

0:00:58.880 --> 0:01:02.960
<v Speaker 1>sorts of your images of the horror in New York.

0:01:03.040 --> 0:01:06.200
<v Speaker 1>But I'll tell you the Pentagon was really something with

0:01:06.400 --> 0:01:10.520
<v Speaker 1>huge loss. At our Department of Navy, we tried to

0:01:10.640 --> 0:01:14.880
<v Speaker 1>prosecute a normal show on a very non normal day

0:01:14.920 --> 0:01:17.960
<v Speaker 1>to day. What a noninative griston distant Feld with us

0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:21.560
<v Speaker 1>with Alliance Bernstein, truly a giant and fixed any in

0:01:21.640 --> 0:01:25.440
<v Speaker 1>fixed income. He gave us his reminiscence of his eleventh

0:01:25.480 --> 0:01:29.960
<v Speaker 1>of September here Gristen distant Feld on the worry of

0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:30.839
<v Speaker 1>higher yield.

0:01:31.080 --> 0:01:32.760
<v Speaker 2>We've been focused so much on what the Fed's going

0:01:32.800 --> 0:01:34.560
<v Speaker 2>to do in the latest CPI print and stuff, and

0:01:34.640 --> 0:01:37.560
<v Speaker 2>we seem to have forgotten about the budget deficit and

0:01:37.600 --> 0:01:39.280
<v Speaker 2>what's weally going to drive the long end of the curve.

0:01:39.640 --> 0:01:43.240
<v Speaker 2>So I think that sometime that's going to become an

0:01:43.280 --> 0:01:46.680
<v Speaker 2>issue that's not going away. It's hard to talk about

0:01:46.760 --> 0:01:49.840
<v Speaker 2>politics in a day as as solemn as not just

0:01:49.880 --> 0:01:53.040
<v Speaker 2>nine eleven, but you know, the political assassination of Charlie Kirk,

0:01:53.080 --> 0:01:55.480
<v Speaker 2>which probably the largest one in the past fifty years.

0:01:55.680 --> 0:01:58.640
<v Speaker 2>It's a very solemn day to talk about things like this.

0:01:58.840 --> 0:02:03.000
<v Speaker 2>But you know, it's there's going to be a time

0:02:03.200 --> 0:02:05.120
<v Speaker 2>where we're going to have to come half to have

0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:06.960
<v Speaker 2>a reconing. You know, I've been on I've been on

0:02:07.000 --> 0:02:09.440
<v Speaker 2>record saying and you know this is not a prediction,

0:02:09.520 --> 0:02:11.799
<v Speaker 2>but it wouldn't shock me if we woke up two, three,

0:02:11.919 --> 0:02:13.799
<v Speaker 2>five years from now and we had a very normal

0:02:13.840 --> 0:02:15.600
<v Speaker 2>curve out to ten years, goal to ten, you would

0:02:15.600 --> 0:02:17.800
<v Speaker 2>have a three hand on it, and the and the

0:02:17.800 --> 0:02:19.960
<v Speaker 2>thirty year would be six or seven percent. I think

0:02:19.960 --> 0:02:23.000
<v Speaker 2>there's going to be a reckoning where especially foreigners are

0:02:23.000 --> 0:02:23.959
<v Speaker 2>not going to want to lend.

0:02:23.919 --> 0:02:27.880
<v Speaker 1>Us Kristen Distanfeld. They're really hearkening back to our conversation

0:02:27.960 --> 0:02:31.200
<v Speaker 1>with kind of Througoff of Harvard University a number of

0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:35.680
<v Speaker 1>days ago. Anna Wong has been extraordinary an important essay

0:02:35.720 --> 0:02:41.080
<v Speaker 1>in the last seventy two hours on the revisions of jobs, saying, yes,

0:02:41.400 --> 0:02:45.840
<v Speaker 1>there was a recession like job economy in twenty twenty four.

0:02:45.919 --> 0:02:51.320
<v Speaker 1>She's more optimistic about a nascent improvement a better business cycle.

0:02:52.000 --> 0:02:55.520
<v Speaker 1>Anna Wong on today's inflation statistics.

0:02:55.080 --> 0:02:58.760
<v Speaker 3>Three point six percent is actually the one of the

0:02:58.840 --> 0:03:02.799
<v Speaker 3>highest sins for over six months now, so I think

0:03:03.280 --> 0:03:06.600
<v Speaker 3>the contour of three months annualized, and this is a

0:03:06.639 --> 0:03:10.399
<v Speaker 3>measure that Chris Waller has said he looks at. It's

0:03:10.440 --> 0:03:14.519
<v Speaker 3>basically it has troughed a couple months ago and it's

0:03:14.600 --> 0:03:18.120
<v Speaker 3>now on a rebound. And I think that what.

0:03:18.440 --> 0:03:21.840
<v Speaker 4>It is that the I think the rate hikes in

0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:24.760
<v Speaker 4>the last couple of years in the level of that

0:03:24.880 --> 0:03:28.799
<v Speaker 4>fund's right is only sufficient to bring inflation back down

0:03:28.840 --> 0:03:31.360
<v Speaker 4>to about two point seven or two point eight percent,

0:03:31.960 --> 0:03:35.080
<v Speaker 4>and thereafter it installed and it's now going right.

0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:39.360
<v Speaker 1>Just extraordinary analysis from doctor Walrong. Let me explain three

0:03:39.400 --> 0:03:46.240
<v Speaker 1>months to annualized units. The biggest problem with surface analysis

0:03:46.760 --> 0:03:49.600
<v Speaker 1>within the financial media is everybody looks on the y

0:03:49.720 --> 0:03:54.040
<v Speaker 1>axis at price change. Far more important is what unit

0:03:54.240 --> 0:03:58.080
<v Speaker 1>is taken. For example, an ancient Wall Street people had

0:03:58.080 --> 0:04:02.080
<v Speaker 1>a real predilection to look at weekly charts and not

0:04:02.400 --> 0:04:07.640
<v Speaker 1>daily charts, and find value in monthly charts or units

0:04:07.640 --> 0:04:11.440
<v Speaker 1>of a longer time, even quarterly or yearly charts, just

0:04:11.480 --> 0:04:13.640
<v Speaker 1>to get a scope away from the day to day,

0:04:13.760 --> 0:04:18.919
<v Speaker 1>hour to hour tick of the modern Wall Street. Annualized

0:04:19.600 --> 0:04:23.039
<v Speaker 1>takes the given data over one month or typically three

0:04:23.080 --> 0:04:27.159
<v Speaker 1>months ninety days, and we say three months annualized, or

0:04:27.240 --> 0:04:30.200
<v Speaker 1>we say what was the change over ninety days, and

0:04:30.240 --> 0:04:32.719
<v Speaker 1>then we take that out and pretend it was over

0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:37.839
<v Speaker 1>twelve months. There's flaws in it, to be honest, you know,

0:04:37.920 --> 0:04:42.320
<v Speaker 1>sometime misused. But I'm sorry, I put very heavy weight

0:04:42.480 --> 0:04:46.159
<v Speaker 1>in the three month annualized statistic. Jason Ferman leading a

0:04:46.279 --> 0:04:49.280
<v Speaker 1>charge on this up at Harvard along with doctor Wong

0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:53.280
<v Speaker 1>of Chicago and Bloomberg. But the three monthly annualized statistics,

0:04:53.320 --> 0:04:56.440
<v Speaker 1>I haven't seen them yet. On goods and services, they're

0:04:56.480 --> 0:05:01.000
<v Speaker 1>not pretty. It's a podcast on Apple, on Modify, on

0:05:01.120 --> 0:05:03.800
<v Speaker 1>YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea.

0:05:07.120 --> 0:05:14.919
<v Speaker 4>H m hm