Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea on
Speaker 1: a two hour broadcast, that's what we could do today.
Speaker 1: There was so much material and the newsflow just overwhelming
Speaker 1: through the Thank you to the Bloomberg News team a
Speaker 1: sleepless night covering this horror in Utah. We greatly appreciate that.
Speaker 1: Of course, the FBI with a conference and I'm sure
Speaker 1: there'll be more news through the day. The President of
Speaker 1: the United States speaking on this eleventh of September at
Speaker 1: the Pentagon. Go to Wikipedia and go down flight seventy
Speaker 1: seven and the paragraphs of what was lost at the
Speaker 1: Pentagon is just heartbreaking. I think it's a lot of
Speaker 1: things Americans don't know. There's New York, and there's all
Speaker 1: sorts of your images of the horror in New York.
Speaker 1: But I'll tell you the Pentagon was really something with
Speaker 1: huge loss. At our Department of Navy, we tried to
Speaker 1: prosecute a normal show on a very non normal day
Speaker 1: to day. What a noninative griston distant Feld with us
Speaker 1: with Alliance Bernstein, truly a giant and fixed any in
Speaker 1: fixed income. He gave us his reminiscence of his eleventh
Speaker 1: of September here Gristen distant Feld on the worry of
Speaker 1: higher yield.
Speaker 2: We've been focused so much on what the Fed's going
Speaker 2: to do in the latest CPI print and stuff, and
Speaker 2: we seem to have forgotten about the budget deficit and
Speaker 2: what's weally going to drive the long end of the curve.
Speaker 2: So I think that sometime that's going to become an
Speaker 2: issue that's not going away. It's hard to talk about
Speaker 2: politics in a day as as solemn as not just
Speaker 2: nine eleven, but you know, the political assassination of Charlie Kirk,
Speaker 2: which probably the largest one in the past fifty years.
Speaker 2: It's a very solemn day to talk about things like this.
Speaker 2: But you know, it's there's going to be a time
Speaker 2: where we're going to have to come half to have
Speaker 2: a reconing. You know, I've been on I've been on
Speaker 2: record saying and you know this is not a prediction,
Speaker 2: but it wouldn't shock me if we woke up two, three,
Speaker 2: five years from now and we had a very normal
Speaker 2: curve out to ten years, goal to ten, you would
Speaker 2: have a three hand on it, and the and the
Speaker 2: thirty year would be six or seven percent. I think
Speaker 2: there's going to be a reckoning where especially foreigners are
Speaker 2: not going to want to lend.
Speaker 1: Us Kristen Distanfeld. They're really hearkening back to our conversation
Speaker 1: with kind of Througoff of Harvard University a number of
Speaker 1: days ago. Anna Wong has been extraordinary an important essay
Speaker 1: in the last seventy two hours on the revisions of jobs, saying, yes,
Speaker 1: there was a recession like job economy in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 1: She's more optimistic about a nascent improvement a better business cycle.
Speaker 1: Anna Wong on today's inflation statistics.
Speaker 3: Three point six percent is actually the one of the
Speaker 3: highest sins for over six months now, so I think
Speaker 3: the contour of three months annualized, and this is a
Speaker 3: measure that Chris Waller has said he looks at. It's
Speaker 3: basically it has troughed a couple months ago and it's
Speaker 3: now on a rebound. And I think that what.
Speaker 4: It is that the I think the rate hikes in
Speaker 4: the last couple of years in the level of that
Speaker 4: fund's right is only sufficient to bring inflation back down
Speaker 4: to about two point seven or two point eight percent,
Speaker 4: and thereafter it installed and it's now going right.
Speaker 1: Just extraordinary analysis from doctor Walrong. Let me explain three
Speaker 1: months to annualized units. The biggest problem with surface analysis
Speaker 1: within the financial media is everybody looks on the y
Speaker 1: axis at price change. Far more important is what unit
Speaker 1: is taken. For example, an ancient Wall Street people had
Speaker 1: a real predilection to look at weekly charts and not
Speaker 1: daily charts, and find value in monthly charts or units
Speaker 1: of a longer time, even quarterly or yearly charts, just
Speaker 1: to get a scope away from the day to day,
Speaker 1: hour to hour tick of the modern Wall Street. Annualized
Speaker 1: takes the given data over one month or typically three
Speaker 1: months ninety days, and we say three months annualized, or
Speaker 1: we say what was the change over ninety days, and
Speaker 1: then we take that out and pretend it was over
Speaker 1: twelve months. There's flaws in it, to be honest, you know,
Speaker 1: sometime misused. But I'm sorry, I put very heavy weight
Speaker 1: in the three month annualized statistic. Jason Ferman leading a
Speaker 1: charge on this up at Harvard along with doctor Wong
Speaker 1: of Chicago and Bloomberg. But the three monthly annualized statistics,
Speaker 1: I haven't seen them yet. On goods and services, they're
Speaker 1: not pretty. It's a podcast on Apple, on Modify, on
Speaker 1: YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea.
Speaker 4: H m hm