1 00:00:02,200 --> 00:00:05,560 Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg 2 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: dot com, the radio plus mobile LAP and on your radio, 3 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:12,799 Speaker 1: this is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscown. 4 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:15,320 Speaker 1: There's updates brought to you. Buy eisener Amper. Does your 5 00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:18,759 Speaker 1: accountant do more than crunch numbers? Eisener Amper understands the 6 00:00:18,840 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 1: more of their clients to know, the better the outcome. 7 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: That's why they've created a twenty sixteen personal tax guide 8 00:00:24,160 --> 00:00:28,320 Speaker 1: free downloaded eisener Amper dot Com slash strategies US stocks. 9 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:30,560 Speaker 1: They're little change while the dollar heads for the longest 10 00:00:30,640 --> 00:00:33,839 Speaker 1: rally since October against the yen, as speculation grows that 11 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:36,640 Speaker 1: the world's largest economy is strong enough to withstand higher 12 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:39,600 Speaker 1: interest rates. To check the markets every fifteen minutes throughout 13 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:42,240 Speaker 1: the trading day on bloomberg S and P five hundred 14 00:00:42,280 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 1: little change at twenty thirty six down Jones Industrial Average 15 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,080 Speaker 1: little changed up six points to seventeen thousand, five hundred 16 00:00:48,159 --> 00:00:50,440 Speaker 1: twenty two, and then asked act down to ten per 17 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:53,440 Speaker 1: center nine points to forty seven sixty three ten your 18 00:00:53,479 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 1: treasury of three thirty seconds the yield one eight eight percent. 19 00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:58,840 Speaker 1: They yield on the two year point eight six percent 20 00:00:59,240 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 1: nine make screw to ailed down half percent or nineteen 21 00:01:01,480 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 1: cents at thirty seven of barrel comes Gold is down 22 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:06,600 Speaker 1: less than a tenth of a percent on a dollar 23 00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:10,000 Speaker 1: ten to twelve forty ounce the euro at dollar twelve 24 00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:13,399 Speaker 1: o four the end one thirteen point to one Starwood 25 00:01:13,440 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 1: Hotels and Resources Worldwide that had received a higher takeover 26 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:19,360 Speaker 1: offer from a group led by n Bang Insurance Group, 27 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 1: putting the Chinese company back into battle with Marriott International 28 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,360 Speaker 1: for control of the hotel operator, and Starwood Hotels is 29 00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: up to and a half percent. This morning, Revla naming 30 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,320 Speaker 1: Fabian Garcia as its next chief executive, turning to a 31 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:35,759 Speaker 1: Colgate pom Ola veteran to revamp the cosmetics company. It's 32 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 1: down almost twelve percent today, and Bob Jane, the global 33 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 1: head of Credit Suis Asset Management, is leaving the Swiss 34 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 1: Bank to be co chief investment officer at Millennium Management, 35 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 1: according to people familiar with the matter. And that's a 36 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 1: Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Barry Karen, thank you so much. 37 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 1: I want to note quickly here I think it's so 38 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 1: important that Friday. Thanks to Mark Grant for pointing this out. 39 00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:02,760 Speaker 1: Out in the Twitter space Atlanta. GDP now angled down 40 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:05,400 Speaker 1: to a one point four percent Barry. That's a that's 41 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 1: a low number for Q one sixteen. You gotta believe 42 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:11,959 Speaker 1: it's going to go lower after today's economic data. Um. Yes, 43 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: I mean they always work within a fairly broad range 44 00:02:16,120 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 1: when they look at the top and bottom of the 45 00:02:18,520 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: top ten forecasts. But that's really right at the bottom 46 00:02:22,440 --> 00:02:24,120 Speaker 1: of the range, and that's back where it was in 47 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:27,040 Speaker 1: the early January. I am sorry, I missaid. I should 48 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 1: have had that out early morning hours. Five am. Um. 49 00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 1: We have been waiting days to speak with Carla and Robbins, 50 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 1: who with Julius Wigan's the high Ground in Cuba. She 51 00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:40,280 Speaker 1: is at the crosso and Formulations out of Wellesley in Berkeley. 52 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:45,799 Speaker 1: Uh in Latin American Studies in the Future of Cuba. Um, Carla, 53 00:02:45,919 --> 00:02:50,920 Speaker 1: good morning, UM Dr Robins. How did I said, I said, 54 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 1: let's wait on this until the president leaves. How do 55 00:02:54,840 --> 00:03:00,360 Speaker 1: you do? Um? I think he did? Uh think he 56 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 1: did really well. Uh. I mean, just the contrast in 57 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 1: that press conference of looking at sort of the old 58 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 1: grumpy Raoul castro Um and the young dynamic Obama and 59 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:14,519 Speaker 1: forcing Raoul in many ways we're enticing him into enjoy 60 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:17,400 Speaker 1: press conference, something that Rail doesn't do, and getting him 61 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 1: to answer questions or at least get reporters asking questions 62 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:26,120 Speaker 1: about human rights. Pretty persuasive contrast vary. It's extraordinary. I mean, folks, 63 00:03:26,160 --> 00:03:28,079 Speaker 1: I want to say that the one volume definitive is 64 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:31,120 Speaker 1: Julius Wig on Cuba. I mean, I mean, what when 65 00:03:31,120 --> 00:03:33,760 Speaker 1: you when you read about Cuba. Dr Rubs if you were, 66 00:03:33,800 --> 00:03:37,240 Speaker 1: if you were to look at Julia's wise classic one 67 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,880 Speaker 1: volume on Cuba, how would you rewrote rewrite it right now? 68 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:46,680 Speaker 1: So the key question, the key issue here is who 69 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:50,040 Speaker 1: is the businesses in the US that are going to 70 00:03:50,160 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 1: benefit from the opening. Is this a tourist uh sector 71 00:03:54,360 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 1: or is this agriculture and telecom technology and manufacturing. How 72 00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:06,240 Speaker 1: do you see Cuba, Carla interacting with American business? Well, 73 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 1: the thing about the Cuban economy is it's it's small 74 00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 1: and it's poor. Um it needs a lot of stuff, 75 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:16,840 Speaker 1: and with the loosening of the embargo, there are things 76 00:04:16,839 --> 00:04:19,760 Speaker 1: that American companies can sell. But the level of excitement 77 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:21,719 Speaker 1: about Cuba has less to do with the power of 78 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:23,720 Speaker 1: the economy than it is the fact that nobody's been 79 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:25,520 Speaker 1: able to No Americans been able to get in there 80 00:04:25,600 --> 00:04:28,960 Speaker 1: for fifty plus years, so you know, I wouldn't get 81 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:31,680 Speaker 1: too excited about it. Now. Which sectors would benefit? Part 82 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 1: of that depends on what the Cuban government is willing 83 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 1: to do. I mean, the thing that Obama wanted more 84 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: than anything else was to get internet companies in there 85 00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 1: so that they could you open it up behind the 86 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:44,560 Speaker 1: five penetration that people believe because the whole point of 87 00:04:44,560 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 1: it is to have the breath of fresh air in there. 88 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:49,839 Speaker 1: Will the Cuban government really let internet companies come in? 89 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:52,600 Speaker 1: Will they really allow the Cuban people to have connectivity? 90 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: You know, I probably not. Their goal for this is 91 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:58,119 Speaker 1: to just get enough cash so they can stay in power. 92 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 1: I don't think they want the same same thing Bama. 93 00:05:00,960 --> 00:05:03,039 Speaker 1: Bama want you to know what if Cuban needs under 94 00:05:03,080 --> 00:05:05,159 Speaker 1: the loosening of the embarbo. Keep in mind that only 95 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:09,800 Speaker 1: the Congress can can lift the embargo. Basically anything that 96 00:05:09,880 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 1: you know, repair for home repair and for farmers, and 97 00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:16,160 Speaker 1: pretty much everything that they could possibly get that they 98 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:19,400 Speaker 1: could afford, but they can't afford much. Brief me on 99 00:05:19,520 --> 00:05:23,560 Speaker 1: the Havanna centric analysis. Cuba's got a whole a nother 100 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 1: Cuba besides seventeen square blocks of beaten up Havanna. Is 101 00:05:29,360 --> 00:05:36,559 Speaker 1: there more there or will it just be a Havanna relationship? Well? Um, 102 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,000 Speaker 1: in the theories, the loosening of the embargo is supposed 103 00:05:39,000 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 1: to reach out to small entrepreneurs, farmers that could go 104 00:05:44,120 --> 00:05:46,600 Speaker 1: beyond Havanna. But all of that is in the hands 105 00:05:46,600 --> 00:05:49,640 Speaker 1: of the Castor government. The Caster government will decide how 106 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 1: much they're they're willing to meet out their limited amount 107 00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:55,840 Speaker 1: of hard currency and how much the interaction they want 108 00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:58,239 Speaker 1: their people to have with the world. Use. There's another 109 00:05:58,279 --> 00:05:59,640 Speaker 1: way of looking at it, which is, you know, I 110 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:02,040 Speaker 1: don't know if you saw this, but the Fidel Castro 111 00:06:02,120 --> 00:06:05,039 Speaker 1: who Obama Obama did not me, who's very old and 112 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:08,200 Speaker 1: quite ill, has a letter in grandmother, you know, the 113 00:06:08,200 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 1: Commist Party newspaper today ripping the visit. Uh. What we 114 00:06:11,760 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 1: don't really know is, you know, are there two Cubas 115 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 1: politically as well? Or It seems to me that everyone 116 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: who we saw being interviewed, and even when when they 117 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:25,600 Speaker 1: were letting me into Cuba decades ago, Um, everybody thought 118 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,599 Speaker 1: that the revolution had just gone on too long. But 119 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 1: there are a lot of true believers still out there, 120 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 1: and certainly Fidel is the leader of that faction not 121 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 1: going to be around all that much longer. But what 122 00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 1: we don't know is what is sort of the will 123 00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 1: of the Cuban people in the wild in human bureaucracy. 124 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:43,839 Speaker 1: I'd point out Mr Dholts that Mr Castro the younger is. Yeah, 125 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:46,599 Speaker 1: he's young of the two. You know, when we talked 126 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:50,799 Speaker 1: about this breath of fresh air, I heard similar stuff 127 00:06:50,839 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 1: when we were opening up China. And yet China runs 128 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:58,560 Speaker 1: the Internet with a fairly iron grip. Some stuff leaks through, 129 00:06:58,760 --> 00:07:03,760 Speaker 1: but it hasn't been that. Hey, here's what freedom offers. 130 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:08,840 Speaker 1: You come to a different political or philosophical perspective. I 131 00:07:08,880 --> 00:07:11,600 Speaker 1: have to imagine tiny Little Cuba is going to be 132 00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 1: much even stronger in terms of maintaining that information blockade 133 00:07:17,160 --> 00:07:20,680 Speaker 1: against sites that they're not interested in. Well, tiny little 134 00:07:20,720 --> 00:07:25,560 Speaker 1: Cuba doesn't have the resources that China does, you know, economically, technologically, 135 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 1: and it's also not you know, true is in a 136 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:31,560 Speaker 1: hundred miles from American shores. I mean in Havana. You 137 00:07:31,720 --> 00:07:35,600 Speaker 1: can live here, drivetime radio from Miami. It's it's never 138 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 1: been completely blocked off. You're the real question is what 139 00:07:38,840 --> 00:07:40,680 Speaker 1: happens when Raoul dies. Now I used to say the 140 00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:43,760 Speaker 1: real question is what happens when Feedale leaves. Um, he 141 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 1: left and the regime is still there. But you know 142 00:07:46,920 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 1: what motivated the Cubans to do this? Because they got 143 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:51,920 Speaker 1: They got rid of their biggest excuse for their own 144 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 1: incompetence economically, and I think it's because Venezuela doesn't have 145 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:57,800 Speaker 1: the resources to keep them the problem of the way 146 00:07:57,880 --> 00:08:00,040 Speaker 1: Russia used to prop them up, So we don't know 147 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 1: how def would they are either. He was just joining 148 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:04,640 Speaker 1: US Carla and Robbins was with the consul in Foreign 149 00:08:04,640 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 1: relations on Cuba. Is there a Republican strategy? I mean, 150 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:12,320 Speaker 1: I understand it's in disarray with the Cuban vote in Florida, 151 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:15,680 Speaker 1: and there's a few other distractions for the Republican Party 152 00:08:15,760 --> 00:08:19,000 Speaker 1: right now. But for the next president, whether it's let's 153 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:24,080 Speaker 1: presume Secretary Clinton or Mr Trump or whomever were the Republicans, 154 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:30,440 Speaker 1: is there a Republican strategy beyond the stereotypes of the 155 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:35,599 Speaker 1: early nineteen sixties. UM, I don't think there's much of 156 00:08:35,640 --> 00:08:38,480 Speaker 1: a relevant strategy at this point in any foreign policy issue, 157 00:08:38,480 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 1: whether than it really going to be great, and we're 158 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:42,800 Speaker 1: gonna be you know what, out of everybody out there. 159 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:46,240 Speaker 1: The really interesting thing thing is the Republicans war when 160 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:48,079 Speaker 1: Obama did this, that they weren't going to allow the 161 00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 1: money for opening the embassy. They weren't gonna they weren't 162 00:08:50,520 --> 00:08:53,000 Speaker 1: going to try to block this thing the same way 163 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:54,960 Speaker 1: they were going to block the Iran deale. You know, 164 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 1: I think there's a certain thing in foreign policy in 165 00:08:57,520 --> 00:08:59,719 Speaker 1: which this is pretty much a fed a company now, 166 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 1: and they screw back the openings that have taken place 167 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:06,480 Speaker 1: under Every president has a grogative to loosen or tighten 168 00:09:06,559 --> 00:09:09,680 Speaker 1: the embargo, but only Congress can lift the embargo, and 169 00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:11,599 Speaker 1: we've seen it swing back and forth to mix my 170 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:15,199 Speaker 1: matter force between Republican and Democratic presidents over the years, 171 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:18,120 Speaker 1: remittances and all. I think one of the biggest difference 172 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:20,560 Speaker 1: now though, is that the Cuban population, the people in 173 00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:23,679 Speaker 1: the United States who were the number one opponents who 174 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 1: this opening, have shifted demographically. People want to go there, 175 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:28,920 Speaker 1: they want to visit their family, they want to send 176 00:09:28,920 --> 00:09:30,960 Speaker 1: money over there. So I think there's gonna as much 177 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: as people will say in the campaign trail that this 178 00:09:32,840 --> 00:09:34,840 Speaker 1: is all going to get rolled back. If the Republicans 179 00:09:34,840 --> 00:09:37,719 Speaker 1: were to win, it will roll back. That was a 180 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 1: question I I was gonna ask next, which is we've 181 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 1: essentially had UH foreign policy dictated by a small community 182 00:09:46,600 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 1: of Cuban expats in South Florida in the last minute 183 00:09:51,120 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 1: we have. How much authority does that group have? How 184 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 1: much has it waned over the past decade. It's not 185 00:09:58,600 --> 00:10:02,040 Speaker 1: just that the group has waned, it's it's changed itself. 186 00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 1: It's a younger, it's a new generation. It's just their 187 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 1: number one issue is no longer you know, let's overthrow 188 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 1: fidelle Castro and the American public doesn't really care about Cuba. 189 00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 1: This has always been one of these things that the 190 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:18,160 Speaker 1: most vocal exile group, the most vocal group of people 191 00:10:18,200 --> 00:10:21,280 Speaker 1: who come in, can rule policy. Right now if you 192 00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:25,240 Speaker 1: look at the positive people, correlatives or they much rather 193 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:28,520 Speaker 1: vote on issues like you know, the economy, you or terrorism. 194 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:30,160 Speaker 1: One of the things that everybody else in the US 195 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:33,560 Speaker 1: at Carla, thank you so much, Carla Robbins at the 196 00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 1: Consul on Foreign Relations, the number of other schools as well, 197 00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:39,000 Speaker 1: I might point out she has been on two poets 198 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:42,559 Speaker 1: Prizing UH teams at the Wall Street Journal in her 199 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:45,640 Speaker 1: reporting days. It's all thrilled to have her on um 200 00:10:45,760 --> 00:10:49,080 Speaker 1: after what we saw from the festivities of the West 201 00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 1: was this painful barrier. You're gonna come out three hours, 202 00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:59,040 Speaker 1: three hours went. It's just astonishing. Michael Who No, good morning, 203 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 1: Michael McKee. If you listening, we hope you are as well. 204 00:11:02,480 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 1: Barry Redholton for Michael McKey this week, I'm Tom Keane. Um. 205 00:11:06,240 --> 00:11:09,840 Speaker 1: We'll do this tomorrow. Don't forget Job's Day. On Friday, 206 00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:11,400 Speaker 1: it's Bloomberg's surveillance