1 00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:09,520 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:11,120 Speaker 2: Good morning. 3 00:00:11,160 --> 00:00:14,680 Speaker 3: I'm Karen Moscow and I'm Alexis christopherus. Here are the 4 00:00:14,720 --> 00:00:16,079 Speaker 3: stories we're following. 5 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:19,759 Speaker 4: Today, Alexis. We do begin with that big decline in oil. 6 00:00:19,880 --> 00:00:22,279 Speaker 4: The move comes after the US paused an almost two 7 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 4: week run of strikes against Iran, after thirteen straight nights 8 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:29,520 Speaker 4: of strikes seemed at degrading Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping. 9 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:33,520 Speaker 4: The US is apparently held off since late Friday. Iran 10 00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:36,480 Speaker 4: has halted its retaliation as a result. And begin more 11 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:39,959 Speaker 4: from Bloomberg Middle East Breaking News editor Patrick Sykes. 12 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 5: The US seems to have reached the conclusion that daily 13 00:00:42,680 --> 00:00:47,440 Speaker 5: strategy of strikes, particularly around Iran's southern coast on the 14 00:00:47,479 --> 00:00:50,519 Speaker 5: Persian Gulf, hasn't been leading to the results it was 15 00:00:50,520 --> 00:00:54,160 Speaker 5: hoping for, and the diplomacy needs to be the way forward. 16 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:59,000 Speaker 5: What exactly that might look like is also fairly unclear 17 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 5: at the moment. Of course, the Pakistanis remain the main 18 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:04,640 Speaker 5: mediators in all of this, and I think it's a 19 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:09,200 Speaker 5: note that Iran's Interior minister was in Pakistan is Lava 20 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 5: but around this time last week, and. 21 00:01:11,360 --> 00:01:15,000 Speaker 4: As Boomberg's Patrick sikes. Mike Waltz, Washington's ambassador to the 22 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:18,600 Speaker 4: United Nations, said President Trump is giving diplomacy quotes some space. 23 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:22,319 Speaker 4: This morning, an Iranian Foreign Ministry a spokesman said Iran 24 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:24,640 Speaker 4: will not allow the US to determine the timing of 25 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:25,000 Speaker 4: the war. 26 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:28,399 Speaker 3: The latest pause in fighting comes as Israeli Prime Minister 27 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:30,760 Speaker 3: in Benjamin nettan Yahoo, prepares to go to the White 28 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 3: House this week. Net Yaho says he plans to press 29 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 3: President Trump to keep a constant watch on Iran's nuclear program. 30 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Monica Ritz has details. 31 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:43,959 Speaker 6: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the US and Israel 32 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 6: have set back Iran's nuclear abilities a good few years, 33 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 6: but cautions Tehran could still try to reconstruct what's been destroyed. 34 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:55,680 Speaker 7: Are Intel services and yours are working so close together 35 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 7: that it's not that I'm going to present new information, 36 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 7: But I think it's a good thing to have the 37 00:02:00,680 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 7: opportunity to sit with our good friend President Trump and 38 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 7: to hear what he has in mind, because I think 39 00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:08,000 Speaker 7: in many ways it's his decision. 40 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:11,160 Speaker 6: Net Yahoo on Fox News. Trump has also said the 41 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 6: US is locked and loaded for major strikes on Iran. 42 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 6: But suggested he'd wait for diplomatic talks to play out. 43 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 6: Monica Ricks Bloomberg Radio. 44 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:22,359 Speaker 4: All right, Monica, thank you. And Seattle police say three 45 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:24,919 Speaker 4: people were killed and at least five others injured after 46 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:29,160 Speaker 4: gunfire erupted at a crowded food festival beneath the Space Needle. 47 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:32,560 Speaker 4: One person has been arrested. The shooting happened around six 48 00:02:32,639 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 4: pm Sunday at the annual Bite of Seattle Festival. Mayor 49 00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:40,640 Speaker 4: Katie Wilson said Sunday night, her heart is with the victims. 50 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:43,840 Speaker 4: What happened here today at the Seattle Center was an 51 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 4: unbelievable tragedy, a horrific act of violence, and here's Assistant 52 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:51,279 Speaker 4: Seattle Police Chief Tyrone Davis Pumps. 53 00:02:51,000 --> 00:02:55,760 Speaker 8: Has responded and addressed one of the shooters. That person 54 00:02:55,880 --> 00:02:58,920 Speaker 8: gave up and was taken into custody. There was another 55 00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:01,800 Speaker 8: person that we believe I was also involved and fled 56 00:03:01,840 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 8: the scene. 57 00:03:02,880 --> 00:03:06,519 Speaker 4: Seattle Police Assistant Chief Tyrone and Davis says, for now, 58 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:10,480 Speaker 4: detectives did not have any description of the outstanding suspect. 59 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:13,640 Speaker 4: Investigators believe the two were shooting at each other and 60 00:03:13,680 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 4: there is no ongoing threat to the public. 61 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:20,320 Speaker 3: And Karen in Europe. French and Spanish firefighters are battling 62 00:03:20,360 --> 00:03:23,480 Speaker 3: wildfires for a sixth day. More than three hundred thousand 63 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:26,960 Speaker 3: people have been evacuated as fires threatened cities including Madrid 64 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:31,400 Speaker 3: and Bordeaux. We get the latest from Bloomberg Managing editor Bensils. 65 00:03:31,160 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 9: In Madrid, where I am. The situation is somewhat better. 66 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 9: The authorities are reporting that the main fire to the 67 00:03:39,360 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 9: west Madrid is now more or less contained. That said, 68 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:46,800 Speaker 9: it's been an extremely nervy weekend. I was watching last 69 00:03:46,880 --> 00:03:49,920 Speaker 9: night as the firefighting planes were kind of flying over, 70 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 9: moving out to the west, quite near to where I live, 71 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:55,800 Speaker 9: and you know, at times over the weekend the sky 72 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:59,320 Speaker 9: was filled with kind of thick brown smoke those ash all. 73 00:03:59,200 --> 00:04:00,920 Speaker 10: Over the streets the place where I live. 74 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 9: So it seems like it's contained, but it's been a 75 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:07,160 Speaker 9: really strange and quite scary weekend. 76 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Ben Sils's Spain's fires were fueled by a combination 77 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:14,560 Speaker 3: of heat waves and depleting soil moisture. Similar reasons are 78 00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 3: being cited in France. 79 00:04:15,920 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 4: Well, we turn to the markets now Alexis, where the 80 00:04:18,200 --> 00:04:21,279 Speaker 4: pause in fighting in the Middle East is giving stocks 81 00:04:21,320 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 4: a lift. S and P futures up nine tenths of 82 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 4: a percent this morning. It'll be another key week for earnings. Megacap, 83 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:32,279 Speaker 4: tech names, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft all report 84 00:04:32,320 --> 00:04:34,279 Speaker 4: I being get more with Bloomberg's Shirley Pellett. 85 00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 2: The focus will be very much on capex and return 86 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 2: on investment. Kara Murphy is president of Kestra Investment Management. 87 00:04:43,520 --> 00:04:45,640 Speaker 6: I mean, I think the CEOs at these companies should 88 00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:47,839 Speaker 6: be more cautious. They need to listen to what the 89 00:04:47,880 --> 00:04:50,240 Speaker 6: market is telling them. The market is saying, you can't 90 00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:51,400 Speaker 6: just keep spending money like that. 91 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:57,839 Speaker 2: Also reporting this week Boeing, Coca Cola, Visa, MasterCard, Qualcomm, Starbucks, 92 00:04:57,920 --> 00:05:01,839 Speaker 2: and then Friday Oil, Major's, ex Mobile, and Chevron in 93 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:04,240 Speaker 2: New York. Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio. 94 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:07,120 Speaker 3: All right, thanks Charlie. The economy will also be in 95 00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 3: focus this week. The Fed makes a policy decision on Wednesday. 96 00:05:10,600 --> 00:05:12,839 Speaker 3: We get a preview now from Bloomberg's Michael McGee. 97 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:17,040 Speaker 11: A month after a surprisingly benign CPI inflation report, investors 98 00:05:17,080 --> 00:05:19,839 Speaker 11: are now pricing in a growing chance the Fed raises 99 00:05:19,920 --> 00:05:22,920 Speaker 11: interest rates this week. It's still less than fifty percent, 100 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:26,599 Speaker 11: but it's a remarkable turnabout in sediment. Trump's re escalation 101 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 11: in Iran has energy prices rising sharply again. Tech companies 102 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:34,279 Speaker 11: are reporting very high demand for AI components, and the 103 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:38,359 Speaker 11: administration has reimposed tariffs. The combination sets the stage for 104 00:05:38,480 --> 00:05:41,919 Speaker 11: a re acceleration of inflation. On the other side of 105 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:45,000 Speaker 11: the argument, a rate hike wouldn't open the strait of Hormuz, 106 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:49,560 Speaker 11: nor would it likely damp AI enthusiasm. Wednesday's decision will 107 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:52,679 Speaker 11: be a much closer call than first thought, and as always, 108 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 11: what the Fed Chairman has to say will be just 109 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:58,239 Speaker 11: as important to Wall Street bets on their September meeting. 110 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:00,200 Speaker 11: Michael McKee Bloomberg Radio. 111 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,279 Speaker 4: All right, Michael, thank you. In company news and videos 112 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:04,920 Speaker 4: and talks to provide financing to help open AI's Big 113 00:06:05,080 --> 00:06:08,479 Speaker 4: Data Center project, Beget the details with Bloomberg's John Tucker, 114 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 4: John good Morning, and Coom. 115 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:12,159 Speaker 12: Morton Karen Ian video is in discussions to help the 116 00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 12: creator of chat Ept lease a five hundred billion dollar 117 00:06:17,040 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 12: ten gigawatt hub in Ohio, a financing guarantee by Nvidio. 118 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:25,880 Speaker 12: It would highlight the increasingly circular financing behind the AI boom, 119 00:06:26,040 --> 00:06:29,360 Speaker 12: as tech giants fund ever larger projects that ultimately generate 120 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:33,080 Speaker 12: business for themselves. In an exclusive interview with Bloomberg and 121 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 12: Vidia's Jensen Wang, who spoke more broadly about demand for 122 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 12: all of this, my. 123 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 4: Guess is that that the semiconductor industry is probably going 124 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 4: to have to be ten times larger than it is 125 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:47,159 Speaker 4: today over the next decade or so. 126 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 12: Jenson Wang has directed billions of dollars into companies throughout 127 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:53,920 Speaker 12: the AI supply chain. He's aiming to accelerate the uptake 128 00:06:54,000 --> 00:06:57,280 Speaker 12: of his products. But investors, having recent weeks, of course, 129 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:01,320 Speaker 12: begin to cool on lofty tech stock valueations. They're worried 130 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 12: that there's more capacity of the construction than future AI 131 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 12: services will actually require. You knoww York count John Tucker, 132 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:09,000 Speaker 12: Bloomberg Radio. 133 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:11,880 Speaker 3: Thanks John, and in deal news this morning, shares of 134 00:07:11,960 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 3: Forte Biosciences are up about forty percent in early trading. 135 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 3: The Dallas space company is being bought by the Netherlands 136 00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 3: r Jenks for about two point two billion dollars in cash. 137 00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 3: Forte is developing a promising drug for treating videligo and 138 00:07:26,040 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 3: celiac disease that could be used to address multiple autoimmune conditions. 139 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 4: While the rally and Forte shares. Alexis pales in comparison 140 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:37,600 Speaker 4: to the Shanghai stock market debut of China's biggest memory 141 00:07:37,760 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 4: chip maker, CXMT, searched four hundred and sixty six percent 142 00:07:42,160 --> 00:07:45,960 Speaker 4: to become China's largest onshore listed company. The blockbuster debut 143 00:07:46,000 --> 00:07:49,560 Speaker 4: follows the second largest initial public offering in China's history. 144 00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:53,360 Speaker 4: Analysa at underscores investor appetite for a company viewed as 145 00:07:53,360 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 4: central Debajing's ambitions to build a self sufficient semic inductor industry. 146 00:08:00,920 --> 00:08:02,720 Speaker 3: Five o nine on Wall Street Time Now for a 147 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 3: look at some of the other stories making news in 148 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 3: New York and around the world. For that were joined 149 00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 3: by Bloomberg's Michael bar Good Morning, Michael. 150 00:08:08,320 --> 00:08:11,240 Speaker 13: Good Morning, and Alexis. German authorities say the suspect in 151 00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:14,920 Speaker 13: the deadly Berlin Pride attack that killed one person and 152 00:08:15,040 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 13: left twenty nine others injured was shot and killed by 153 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:21,040 Speaker 13: police during a confrontation in a suburb of the city. 154 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:25,520 Speaker 13: Abdual Ballout, a German citizen with Lebanese roots, was killed 155 00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 13: Sunday evening following a search that lasted nearly twenty four 156 00:08:29,200 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 13: hours after the attack in downtown Berlin. Police say it 157 00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 13: started on Saturday, when the suspect drove a vehicle into 158 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:39,880 Speaker 13: a crowd of people attending a gay Pride celebration. Berlin's 159 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:45,040 Speaker 13: Pride Festival is one of Europe's largest LGBTQ plus celebrations. 160 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 13: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin at Yahoo says he still plans 161 00:08:48,520 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 13: to attend the UN General Assembly in New York City 162 00:08:51,320 --> 00:08:55,360 Speaker 13: despite Mayor Zorim Mundani's threats to arrest him. The Nan 163 00:08:55,440 --> 00:08:57,479 Speaker 13: Yahoo on Fox New Sunday. 164 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,600 Speaker 7: He's formitting hate. He's supposed to be the of all 165 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 7: New Yorkers, Jews, Christians, Muslims, everyone, but he's trying to 166 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 7: turn one group against the other and he's forcing hate 167 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 7: and fear. 168 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:14,079 Speaker 13: Mayor Mamdanie has called Netnawho a war criminal over the 169 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 13: International Criminal Court's warrant for the Prime Minister's arrest. The 170 00:09:17,920 --> 00:09:20,960 Speaker 13: mayor also says netnaw Who is not welcome in New York. 171 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:25,720 Speaker 13: Several children attending a YMCA summer camp in East Orange, 172 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 13: New Jersey, were sickened after they allegedly consumed suspected mushroom 173 00:09:30,280 --> 00:09:33,439 Speaker 13: laced edibles. This woman rested her twelve year old daughter 174 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 13: to the hospital after getting the call from the camp 175 00:09:36,160 --> 00:09:39,320 Speaker 13: that her child was given drug laced chocolate by another camper. 176 00:09:39,679 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 3: It's about thirteen children. They, for lack of better words, 177 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 3: they look like zombies. It was really sad. 178 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:48,320 Speaker 13: Her daughter made a full recovery. East Orange Police said 179 00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:51,600 Speaker 13: the suspect has been identified, no charges have been filed, 180 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 13: and the investigation remains ongoing. Global news twenty four hours 181 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:58,080 Speaker 13: a day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now. 182 00:09:58,200 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 13: I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberger. 183 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:02,439 Speaker 11: Thanks Michael. 184 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:05,440 Speaker 4: Time now for our Bloomberg Sports update, and for that 185 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 4: we bring in John Staffshauer. 186 00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:09,719 Speaker 14: Thanks Karon. Three new inductees in the Baseball Hall of 187 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 14: Fame Jeff can To hit the most home runs of 188 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 14: any second baseman ever, and Drew Jones, who as a 189 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 14: center fielder in Atlanta won ten straight Gold Glove Awards, 190 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:20,440 Speaker 14: And Carlos Beltran who had four hundred career home runs 191 00:10:20,440 --> 00:10:22,800 Speaker 14: and had over three hundred stolen bases. Me And while 192 00:10:22,800 --> 00:10:25,560 Speaker 14: in Milwaukee's eleven to two rout of Colorado, the Brewers, 193 00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:28,959 Speaker 14: Jacob Missowski struck out the first seven batters twelve of 194 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 14: the first thirteen three m golf in Minneapolis twenty one 195 00:10:32,320 --> 00:10:35,040 Speaker 14: year Old Jackson Koeboom Shot twenty five hundred part and 196 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 14: one by three. That's your Bloomberg Sports update. 197 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 3: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg day Break coming up after. 198 00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 1: This Coast to coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM, 199 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:53,680 Speaker 1: and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the 200 00:10:53,679 --> 00:10:57,320 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. 201 00:10:57,400 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 4: Im a US paused in almost two week run as 202 00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:02,719 Speaker 4: sho strikes against Iran for a third a straight night. 203 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:05,439 Speaker 4: This is the Islamic Republic singled that was refraining from 204 00:11:05,440 --> 00:11:08,400 Speaker 4: any retaliatory attacks and now talks with Oman over the 205 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:11,559 Speaker 4: strait of horror. Mouz mean while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin 206 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:14,480 Speaker 4: at Yah who said he will press President Trump to 207 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:17,679 Speaker 4: keep a constant launch on Iran's nuclear program when the 208 00:11:17,760 --> 00:11:20,680 Speaker 4: two meet this week. He spoke to Fox News Sunday 209 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:21,800 Speaker 4: Morning Futures. 210 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:26,000 Speaker 7: If you can do so without returning to intense military fighting, 211 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 7: that's fine, why not. But one way or the other, 212 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 7: they have to end their nuclear program, and with a 213 00:11:32,679 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 7: deal or without a deal, that has to come to. 214 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:37,760 Speaker 4: An end, and that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Etnyaho. There 215 00:11:37,800 --> 00:11:39,520 Speaker 4: we want to get the very latest on the situation 216 00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 4: in the Middle East with Stuart Livingston Wallace, head of 217 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:45,680 Speaker 4: Bloomberg's Middle East coverage, and Stuart, good morning. Well, we 218 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:48,720 Speaker 4: appear to be seeing a legitimate pause in the fighting 219 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:52,360 Speaker 4: here after thirteen straight nights of attacks between the US 220 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 4: and Iran. So have we entered a new phase in 221 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:55,400 Speaker 4: the war? 222 00:11:56,440 --> 00:11:58,559 Speaker 10: Yeah, good morning, Karen. I mean, the short ton seris 223 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:00,200 Speaker 10: it's very hard to tell. I mean, I can tell 224 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:02,040 Speaker 10: you anecdotally, for those of us in the region, I 225 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:04,319 Speaker 10: think there's been a great sense of relief over the weekend, 226 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:08,840 Speaker 10: in particular that the sort of fairly relentless thirteen nights 227 00:12:08,920 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 10: of hostilities seems to be appaused. Whether that will last 228 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:14,920 Speaker 10: as a different matter, I mean, history would suggest probably not. 229 00:12:15,800 --> 00:12:18,760 Speaker 10: And it's certainly true to say that the US military 230 00:12:18,760 --> 00:12:20,960 Speaker 10: presence in the region is no different today than it 231 00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:24,800 Speaker 10: was week ago, that they're not withdrawing any troops or ships. 232 00:12:24,800 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 10: In particular. However, the I mean, I think in order 233 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:30,160 Speaker 10: to answer that, probably we need to look at two things. 234 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:32,520 Speaker 10: Number one is what is the motivation? At least in 235 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:35,600 Speaker 10: part it seems to be that after thirteen consecutive nights 236 00:12:35,880 --> 00:12:38,800 Speaker 10: of attacks on Iran and then these retaliatory attacks. There 237 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:41,840 Speaker 10: was no sense that Iran's ability to threaten and attack 238 00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,720 Speaker 10: ships in or moves are around or moose had diminished 239 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:47,640 Speaker 10: in any sense. And then there's a more speculator development 240 00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:49,880 Speaker 10: that you know, the cost not just the dollar cost, 241 00:12:49,920 --> 00:12:52,960 Speaker 10: but in terms of the munitions was getting very very steep. 242 00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:55,080 Speaker 10: And there you know, we know that they're having to 243 00:12:55,080 --> 00:12:58,240 Speaker 10: take munitions out of stock pas in Europe and in Asia, 244 00:12:58,320 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 10: and I think the big concern is around the defect 245 00:13:00,160 --> 00:13:02,240 Speaker 10: of munitions because they're having to use an awful lot 246 00:13:02,240 --> 00:13:04,680 Speaker 10: of those just because of the scale of the drones 247 00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:07,440 Speaker 10: and the missiles coming across from Iran. So all of 248 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:10,320 Speaker 10: that combined suggests that they're going to try the diplomatic 249 00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:13,359 Speaker 10: track again. But there we don't have a great dealivisibility 250 00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:14,960 Speaker 10: about just what is being discussed. 251 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:17,880 Speaker 4: Yeah, and Mike Waltz, the US Ambassador to the UN, 252 00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:20,680 Speaker 4: seem to deny that there is any problem with the 253 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:23,960 Speaker 4: stockpiles of air defenses like the Patriot missile when we 254 00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:26,440 Speaker 4: heard him speak, But he also said the President was 255 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:30,679 Speaker 4: really giving diplomacy quote some space. So does that mean 256 00:13:30,720 --> 00:13:33,680 Speaker 4: there is hope that talks are making some progress. 257 00:13:34,800 --> 00:13:37,000 Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean, I think so they have some sort 258 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:40,559 Speaker 10: of framework there in terms of this memory and understanding 259 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 10: that they signed in June, and okay, fair enough that 260 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 10: fell apart pretty fast, but that is at least the 261 00:13:45,480 --> 00:13:47,680 Speaker 10: basis of what the red lines for other side are. 262 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:50,680 Speaker 10: I mean, I think in terms of the priorities, particularly 263 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:53,079 Speaker 10: for the region itself, it is Hormos. Yes, the nuclear 264 00:13:53,120 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 10: file is very important, along with the proxies and the 265 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:59,200 Speaker 10: missile programs on and so forth. But the short term, 266 00:13:59,280 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 10: and particularly for the global economy, it's all about hor 267 00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:03,840 Speaker 10: Moves and getting had all at. And now you have 268 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:06,360 Speaker 10: the second front that's opened along the Red Sea that 269 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:08,840 Speaker 10: you know, the Babel Mendeb Strait, which is rather like 270 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:11,280 Speaker 10: horn Moves. But the other side of the Raven Peninsula 271 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:14,200 Speaker 10: that is still another resolved question, although again there we've 272 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:17,400 Speaker 10: not seen any hostilities since sasday. Forty eight hours is 273 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 10: not a great deal of time to say it's all ended. 274 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 10: We suspect it probably hasn't ended there either. But again 275 00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:25,040 Speaker 10: the pressure is on, I think, to get some sort 276 00:14:25,040 --> 00:14:27,560 Speaker 10: of resolution and get that oil and gas flowing again. 277 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 4: And there's still not seeing necessarily a free flow through 278 00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:35,480 Speaker 4: the Strait of Horror moves. Despite this pause in fighting, 279 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 4: there's still a bit of a backup there, some ships 280 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 4: being turned around. Still. 281 00:14:40,480 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 10: Yeah, I think a great deal of nervousness about transitting 282 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 10: through there, because again so many ships have been attacked 283 00:14:46,040 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 10: over the last couple of weeks or so, and no 284 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:52,560 Speaker 10: sense that Iran's ability to continue attacking if it wants 285 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 10: to has gone away. But now there's the additional complication 286 00:14:56,560 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 10: of the other strait, as were the Baba Mendeb stra 287 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 10: and again that really constrainship his ability to navigate stuff. 288 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 10: So if you want to get, for instance, oil out 289 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:09,120 Speaker 10: of the western bit of Saudi Arabia on the Red 290 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:12,440 Speaker 10: Sea off to Asia, pretty much you're either going to 291 00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:14,040 Speaker 10: go through that straight and then you risk an attack 292 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:16,520 Speaker 10: from the Hooties, or you go noll through sewers along 293 00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:19,120 Speaker 10: the Mediterranean and then around the southern tip of Africa. 294 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:21,760 Speaker 10: Now that adds weeks and weeks and weeks to each journey, 295 00:15:21,840 --> 00:15:25,200 Speaker 10: so the costs increase, the delivery time increases, and the 296 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:28,400 Speaker 10: effective capacity of the global shipping fleet shrinks. 297 00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:32,040 Speaker 4: Yeah, and just because there's a pause between Iran and 298 00:15:32,080 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 4: the US, does I mean the Hoopies are going to 299 00:15:34,800 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 4: and whatever they have going on with Saudi Arabia, and 300 00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 4: there was a little bit of skirmish over the weekend. 301 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 10: Yeah, exactly. I mean, the one potential glimmer of hope 302 00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 10: there is that the Hooties seems to be framing it 303 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 10: in terms of a more localized issue that they have 304 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:52,960 Speaker 10: with Saudi Arabia over Saudi Arabia's attacks on Signa, the capital. 305 00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:56,640 Speaker 10: So in theory, if you can resolve that, it's not 306 00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:59,440 Speaker 10: necessarily at least as far as the Hooties are saying 307 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 10: it publicly linked to the Iran war. Of course we 308 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:05,880 Speaker 10: all know there is an obvious link there, but potentially 309 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 10: that could get resolved on a separate track. But again, 310 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 10: I don't want to give anyone the sense that you know, 311 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 10: it's completely separate issue. Obviously it's not okay. 312 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 4: And when it comes to any diplomacy tags that are 313 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 4: going on, should we still be looking at Pakistan leading 314 00:16:18,120 --> 00:16:19,480 Speaker 4: the way Pakistan and Oman? 315 00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:23,040 Speaker 10: Yeah, and I think others probably as well. I mean, 316 00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:25,400 Speaker 10: we know Kaso has been involved on and off. I'm 317 00:16:25,400 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 10: sure there are others because again, the priority for the 318 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,360 Speaker 10: region is to get that oil and gas flowing because 319 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 10: it's so important for their revenue, and as you know, 320 00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:37,000 Speaker 10: they're all trying to transform their economies. That is, you know, 321 00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:39,840 Speaker 10: a multi trillion dollar program that's going to take place 322 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:42,240 Speaker 10: over several years and already has been going on. If 323 00:16:42,280 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 10: they haven't got the revenue coming in, that makes it 324 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:46,160 Speaker 10: much more difficult for them to do that. Now. They 325 00:16:46,160 --> 00:16:49,160 Speaker 10: have very deep pockets and very big reserves, so there's 326 00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:51,600 Speaker 10: no sense that you know, is crisis right now, but 327 00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 10: clearly it makes their lives far more difficult if they 328 00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 10: don't have that steady stream of revenue. 329 00:16:56,560 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 4: This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast and the stories 330 00:17:00,120 --> 00:17:03,080 Speaker 4: making news from Wall Street to Washington and beyond. 331 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:05,760 Speaker 3: Look for us on your podcast feed by six am 332 00:17:05,920 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 3: Eastern each morning, on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen. 333 00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 4: You can also listen live each morning starting at five 334 00:17:13,080 --> 00:17:15,680 Speaker 4: am Wall Street time on Bloomberg eleven three to zero 335 00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:18,680 Speaker 4: in New York, Bloomberg in ninety nine to one in Washington, 336 00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:22,640 Speaker 4: Bloomberg ninety two nine in Boston, and nationwide on serious 337 00:17:22,880 --> 00:17:24,480 Speaker 4: XM Channel one twenty one. 338 00:17:24,680 --> 00:17:27,320 Speaker 3: Plus listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app. 339 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:30,840 Speaker 3: Now with Apple CarPlay and Android auto interfaces and. 340 00:17:30,800 --> 00:17:33,760 Speaker 4: Don't forget to subscribe to Bloomberg News Now. 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