WEBVTT - Breakthrough, Part Nine: The Next Pandemic 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:04.880 It's January nine and prime ministers, CEOs and celebrities are 0:00:04.920 --> 0:00:07.720 gathering in the Swiss Alps for an annual summit. A 0:00:07.760 --> 0:00:12.760 globalization backlash, growth in China and trade tensions are dominating 0:00:12.800 --> 0:00:17.440 the agenda. Actor Matt Damon is also here talking about 0:00:17.480 --> 0:00:20.880 the need to improve access to clean water. On the 0:00:20.960 --> 0:00:24.400 sidelines of the World Economic Forum, an American doctor and 0:00:24.440 --> 0:00:28.240 a British scientist are sounding the alarm about a different concern, 0:00:28.880 --> 0:00:33.000 the specter of a pandemic. In a press conference, Richard 0:00:33.000 --> 0:00:36.160 Hatchett highlights the mission of his organization, launched two years 0:00:36.159 --> 0:00:40.479 earlier to combat infectious disease outbreaks with new vaccines. Sitting 0:00:40.520 --> 0:00:43.040 beside two drug industry executives and the head of a 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:47.479 health charity, he says the risks are rising in our 0:00:47.560 --> 0:00:50.879 hyper connected world. Epidemics have the potential to hop from 0:00:50.880 --> 0:00:54.400 continent to continent, spreading far beyond the places where they emerge. 0:00:54.840 --> 0:00:58.680 His group, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, is pushing 0:00:58.680 --> 0:01:01.760 to speed development of exts means against a range of threats, 0:01:02.160 --> 0:01:05.919 including a coronavirus that causes Middle East respiratory syndrome or mirrors. 0:01:06.800 --> 0:01:09.600 And there's more to richard strategy. We have also announced 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:13.280 our first investments to tackle disease X, the disease we 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:16.160 don't know about, the emerging disease with the potential to 0:01:16.240 --> 0:01:19.680 cause a pandemic. One investment is in a program at 0:01:19.720 --> 0:01:23.440 Imperial College London led by Robin Shattuck. The research ames 0:01:23.480 --> 0:01:26.240 to create vaccines that can be scaled up rapidly to 0:01:26.319 --> 0:01:30.080 respond to outbreaks of those mysterious pathogens. Richard sees on 0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:33.800 the horizon, the event in Davos is a prime opportunity 0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:36.880 to address some of the planet's most prominent decision makers. 0:01:37.840 --> 0:01:40.760 Robin sets the scene standing in front of a screen 0:01:40.880 --> 0:01:45.600 with images of people walking along a bustling city sidewalk. Now, 0:01:45.640 --> 0:01:48.240 imagine you're standing in any major city in the world 0:01:48.640 --> 0:01:51.080 and as an outbreak of what we call disease X, 0:01:51.360 --> 0:01:57.360 an unknown respiratory pathogen, how quickly could we respond. The 0:01:57.440 --> 0:02:00.520 reality is that for most countries there's no regional mechanism 0:02:00.720 --> 0:02:05.240 that could manufacture and distribute vaccines in a meaningful time frame. 0:02:05.880 --> 0:02:10.040 Just think about that for a moment. But many people 0:02:10.200 --> 0:02:13.560 are thinking about a deadly pandemic potentially triggered by avian 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:17.880 flu as a distant possibility, not an imminent one. Ebola 0:02:17.960 --> 0:02:22.400 killed more than eleven thousand people in West Africa between, 0:02:22.919 --> 0:02:25.720 but that virus and others like Stars, Mirrors and Zeka 0:02:26.080 --> 0:02:29.360 had all faded from the headlines. Robin reflects on the 0:02:29.360 --> 0:02:32.720 prevailing sentiment at the time. The scientific community is set 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:36.560 up pandemic is coming, It's coming. But having said that, 0:02:36.680 --> 0:02:41.920 for at least ten years, people were getting very used 0:02:41.960 --> 0:02:47.359 to the drumbeat and not actually really appreciating the threat. 0:02:47.960 --> 0:02:50.240 So it isn't exactly a packed house when the Imperial 0:02:50.280 --> 0:02:53.760 scientist warns of a novel and potentially dangerous virus that 0:02:53.800 --> 0:02:57.000 could suddenly strike. There have been the experience with a bowler, 0:02:57.720 --> 0:03:02.440 but that was still relatively geer graphically isolated and wasn't 0:03:02.440 --> 0:03:06.480 a global phenomena. And so in Davos when we gave presentation, 0:03:06.520 --> 0:03:08.600 I think there were about thirty people in the audience 0:03:09.160 --> 0:03:14.799 um and none of them of particular levels of influence. 0:03:17.000 --> 0:03:20.080 For years, scientists that issued warnings and urgent calls to 0:03:20.120 --> 0:03:23.240 bolster our health defenses, and at times those red flags 0:03:23.280 --> 0:03:27.080 captured the attention of global leaders. Richard's coalition known as 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:31.240 SEPPI is a testament to that. But when disease X 0:03:31.320 --> 0:03:36.920 hits just months later. Many countries aren't ready. Despite success 0:03:36.960 --> 0:03:41.680 in creating vaccines in record time, COVID nineteen exposes the 0:03:41.680 --> 0:03:47.320 world's vulnerabilities, killing millions of people and triggering economic turmoil. 0:03:48.520 --> 0:03:52.040 Two years in, the pandemic still is in over a 0:03:52.120 --> 0:03:56.600 fast spreading and heavily mutated variant. Omicron is the latest twist. 0:03:57.320 --> 0:04:00.600 But virus hunters are already planning for a future, a crisis, 0:04:01.040 --> 0:04:03.880 one that could be just as bad, if not worse, 0:04:04.720 --> 0:04:08.000 and they're pointing to lessons from the past. While a 0:04:08.080 --> 0:04:11.360 number of pathogens are on their radar, the effort also 0:04:11.440 --> 0:04:17.360 depends on anticipating threats they haven't seen before. I'm James Peyton, 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:20.880 a health journalist at Bloomberg News from the Prognosis podcast. 0:04:21.400 --> 0:04:39.000 This is breakthrough. Richard Hatchett didn't set out to protect 0:04:39.040 --> 0:04:43.000 the country from pandemics. At Vanderbilt University in the nineteen eighties, 0:04:43.200 --> 0:04:46.680 he was an English major and a poet. Later, he 0:04:46.720 --> 0:04:50.200 opted to go to medical school before focusing on treating cancer. 0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:55.440 Then a turning point comes On a bright late summer 0:04:55.560 --> 0:05:00.600 day in two thousand one, News outlets like CNN interrupt 0:05:00.600 --> 0:05:04.400 their coverage this justin you were looking at obviously a 0:05:04.520 --> 0:05:07.479 very disturbing live shot there. That is the World Trade Center, 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:10.719 and we have unconfirmed reports this morning that a plane 0:05:10.800 --> 0:05:14.640 has crashed into one of the towers. A second hijacked 0:05:14.640 --> 0:05:18.279 plane slams into the South Tower, and soon New York's 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:23.280 tallest buildings collapse. Thousands of people are feared dead. Richard, 0:05:23.480 --> 0:05:27.040 an emergency room doctor a Memorial Slowe Kettering Cancer Center, 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:30.080 is determined to help the city respond to the September 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:34.280 eleventh attack. The next morning on Wednesday, he and other 0:05:34.360 --> 0:05:36.599 volunteers hit your ride on the truck down the West 0:05:36.600 --> 0:05:39.840 Side Highway and head to the smoldering ruins at ground zero. 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:44.320 It was really shocking there, obviously, was this just pulverized 0:05:45.000 --> 0:05:50.520 dust coating everything. There were cars and things that had 0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:52.960 been abandoned. I mean, I think I remember seeing like 0:05:53.000 --> 0:05:55.919 a baby carriage that was just completely coated in white 0:05:56.000 --> 0:05:58.800 dust that it clearly, you know, the parent had picked 0:05:58.880 --> 0:06:01.680 up the child and had fled on foot. It smelled 0:06:01.760 --> 0:06:04.560 poisonous and toxic in a in a way that I've 0:06:04.560 --> 0:06:09.120 never experienced before. Richard's group moves a few blocks north 0:06:09.160 --> 0:06:11.680 to a field hospital set up at Stuyvesant High School. 0:06:12.040 --> 0:06:15.320 With few survivors, nurses and doctors are providing medical support 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:18.720 to search and rescue workers. Richard is asked to take over. 0:06:19.320 --> 0:06:22.520 Hundreds of volunteers arrive in the next twelve hours, and 0:06:22.560 --> 0:06:25.760 the young physician is energized by the teamwork he witnesses. 0:06:26.360 --> 0:06:33.039 That was obviously the personally transformative moment, very powerful, overwhelming 0:06:33.160 --> 0:06:37.280 in some ways, experience also remarkable to work with the 0:06:37.920 --> 0:06:42.040 medical volunteers, the nurses, the doctors who had shown up 0:06:42.760 --> 0:06:47.680 very dedicated, self motivated, used to taking accountability. But he's 0:06:47.680 --> 0:06:51.600 also frustrated by the lack of organization. Little prior thought 0:06:51.720 --> 0:06:55.040 had gone into harnessing the skills and talents of civilians. 0:06:55.760 --> 0:06:58.040 No one seems to have thought that anything like this 0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:02.880 could happen. After three days, he hops on the subway uptown, 0:07:03.360 --> 0:07:07.000 slowly making his way out into a new world. Along 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:09.880 the streets are photos of New Yorkers who are missing, 0:07:10.280 --> 0:07:13.920 leaving Friday morning and emerging back into this shell shop 0:07:14.840 --> 0:07:20.920 city that was just devastated and silent and had a 0:07:20.960 --> 0:07:26.880 gaping wound in the skyline. I was inspired too, you know, 0:07:26.960 --> 0:07:28.920 drawing the experience we had, but think about what would 0:07:28.920 --> 0:07:31.160 we need in the future if something like this happened again. 0:07:31.240 --> 0:07:33.160 How could we be better organized? How could we be 0:07:33.040 --> 0:07:39.240 better integrated. Terrorism is now America's most urgent priority, but 0:07:39.320 --> 0:07:42.480 the threat is changing shape quickly. When letters laced with 0:07:42.520 --> 0:07:46.200 anthrax begin appearing in the mail, bio defense suddenly emerges 0:07:46.480 --> 0:07:50.560 as another pressing concern. Richard is said to begin a 0:07:50.640 --> 0:07:54.559 cancer fellowship at Duke University. After nine eleven, he changed 0:07:54.560 --> 0:07:57.320 his course, devising a plan to form a network of 0:07:57.360 --> 0:08:01.680 medical volunteers who can be mobilized swiftly in emergencies, not 0:08:01.760 --> 0:08:05.920 just terrorism, but other health crises like epidemics. The concept 0:08:06.080 --> 0:08:09.480 catches fire. Within weeks, he and his colleagues are briefing 0:08:09.480 --> 0:08:13.080 the White House. President Bush's endorsement follows, and in early 0:08:13.160 --> 0:08:16.160 two thousand two, Richard heads to Washington to help set 0:08:16.200 --> 0:08:18.520 it up. I took a complete right turn in my 0:08:18.680 --> 0:08:22.480 career at that point, you know, deviating from my plan 0:08:22.640 --> 0:08:25.240 to complete an oncology fellowship and to go on and 0:08:25.240 --> 0:08:29.640 practice medicine, to to do this odd thing that didn't 0:08:29.680 --> 0:08:36.560 seem to build on anything that I've done before. What 0:08:36.720 --> 0:08:40.280 Richard doesn't realize is that his idea, initially sparked by 0:08:40.280 --> 0:08:43.920 fears of domestic terrorism would take on increased importance in 0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:46.439 the coming years and put him on the ground floor 0:08:46.640 --> 0:08:51.360 of global efforts to battle biological threats. When you decide 0:08:51.400 --> 0:08:53.679 you need to prepare the country for a pandemic, how 0:08:53.679 --> 0:08:55.840 do you make that happen? And how do you persuade 0:08:55.840 --> 0:08:59.839 a complacent population to brace for a possible catastrophe? A 0:09:00.040 --> 0:09:04.600 pivotal policy sixteen years ago starts with a book. It's 0:09:04.640 --> 0:09:07.959 two thousand five and George W. Bush's worries are expanding. 0:09:08.720 --> 0:09:12.040 Eleven had already been at defining moment. Hurricane Katrina is 0:09:12.080 --> 0:09:16.440 another unexpected disaster. Anxieties over an avian flu strain spreading 0:09:16.440 --> 0:09:20.160 in Asia are also running high. Then the President learns 0:09:20.200 --> 0:09:23.520 about a pandemic almost ninety years earlier that killed tens 0:09:23.520 --> 0:09:27.200 of millions of people worldwide. Richard is working at the 0:09:27.200 --> 0:09:30.920 Infectious Disease Division of the National Institutes of Health. The 0:09:30.920 --> 0:09:34.600 President happened to read John Barry's book The Great Influenza, 0:09:35.080 --> 0:09:39.920 which was a history of the flu, and it, you know, 0:09:40.000 --> 0:09:42.240 really scared him. And here was a natural threat that 0:09:42.360 --> 0:09:46.439 had a potentially an impact that it was catastrophic beyond 0:09:47.200 --> 0:09:53.680 anything that you know, Terrorists could do. Bush elevates the 0:09:53.720 --> 0:09:56.360 issue to the top of his agenda, calling for a 0:09:56.480 --> 0:10:00.640 national pandemic influenza strategy. Putting it together falls on the 0:10:00.640 --> 0:10:04.600 shoulders of Regiev and Kayak, the President's adviser on biodefense. 0:10:05.360 --> 0:10:08.600 Bush believes many parts of the government and economy aren't 0:10:08.600 --> 0:10:12.360 focusing nearly enough on that kind of nightmare scenario. He 0:10:12.480 --> 0:10:14.800 was regieve he didn't see that they were part of this, 0:10:15.400 --> 0:10:18.120 and yet he knew that they would be affected. One 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:20.720 of the assumptions we made in pandemic planning is that 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:23.520 up to a third of your workforce could be out 0:10:23.520 --> 0:10:26.199 of work at any given time because either they were 0:10:26.240 --> 0:10:28.839 sick or at home taking care of somebody who's sick, 0:10:29.080 --> 0:10:32.520 or because they're scared to come into work. Reggiev is 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:35.880 looking for backup, a strategic thinker with a medical background, 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:38.719 so he contacts the office of Tony Faucci, head of 0:10:38.760 --> 0:10:42.480 the Infectious Disease Unit, and asked for Richard Reggieve knows 0:10:42.559 --> 0:10:45.200 him from projects they'd worked on before what I asked 0:10:45.240 --> 0:10:47.000 for and was allowed to pull together a team to 0:10:47.040 --> 0:10:50.320 work on the implementation plan for the National Strategy for 0:10:50.360 --> 0:10:53.120 pandemic influenza. He was one of the first people that 0:10:53.120 --> 0:10:55.559 that came to mind, and we asked for him by name, 0:10:56.200 --> 0:10:58.600 and so I had to make the difficult call and 0:10:58.600 --> 0:11:01.680 request to Tony Fauci to get him to release Richard 0:11:02.040 --> 0:11:04.240 to be a part of our pandemic flu efforts. And 0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:08.079 of course Tony um saw the importance of it and 0:11:08.640 --> 0:11:12.679 he agreed. Although I'm not sure gladly Bush's plan takes 0:11:12.679 --> 0:11:15.400 shape quickly. In late two thousand five, he explains the 0:11:15.440 --> 0:11:18.719 rationale and a speech televised on c SPAN proposing more 0:11:18.720 --> 0:11:21.600 than seven billion dollars in spending. This moment, there is 0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:26.320 no pandemic influenza in the United States or the world, 0:11:27.800 --> 0:11:29.760 but if history is our guide, there is reason to 0:11:29.800 --> 0:11:34.439 be concerned. The President is determined to pick up outbreaks earlier, 0:11:34.600 --> 0:11:38.280 expand vaccine production, and boost readiness at the federal, state, 0:11:38.520 --> 0:11:42.480 and local levels. Waiting until the lethal pathogen emerges could 0:11:42.520 --> 0:11:46.120 have devastating consequences, and one day, many lives could be 0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:51.640 needlessly lost because we failed to act today. By preparing now, 0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:53.840 we can give our citizens some peace of mind knowing 0:11:53.880 --> 0:11:56.600 that our nation is ready to act at the first 0:11:56.600 --> 0:12:00.440 sign of danger. But the foresight isn't fully app ciated 0:12:00.480 --> 0:12:03.040 at the time, and the US commitment to tackling those 0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:07.600 looming pandemic risks, it's inconsistent. After the Bush years, Richard 0:12:07.679 --> 0:12:11.000 continues to worry with roles on Bush's Homeland Security Council 0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:14.319 and the National Security staff. Under Barack Obama in two 0:12:14.320 --> 0:12:16.560 thousand nine, the new president is forced to contend with 0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:19.480 the swine flu pandemic just months into his term. The 0:12:19.520 --> 0:12:22.720 spread of hibola and Africa poses another test. The Obama 0:12:22.760 --> 0:12:26.679 administration was quite good at learning from its experience and 0:12:26.960 --> 0:12:30.040 adapting to the reality of the world that it lived in. 0:12:30.080 --> 0:12:34.120 It and it and it did elevate global health security 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:37.080 as as one of its priorities. But I think it 0:12:37.160 --> 0:12:39.800 was driven to do that by, you know, what happened 0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:42.320 in the world, not not because it was a priority 0:12:42.360 --> 0:12:46.160 from the beginning. Obama's team drafts a sixty nine page document, 0:12:46.240 --> 0:12:49.920 a pandemic playbook, outlining how to respond to deadly viruses, 0:12:50.440 --> 0:12:53.840 and leaves it behind for the Trump administration. Richard spends 0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:56.599 several years at a US biomedical agency that works to 0:12:56.640 --> 0:13:01.560 spur development of vaccines, drugs, and other countermeasures. Then, in 0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:06.520 early seventeen, another door opens. The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness 0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:10.040 Innovations is launched and Richard is lured to run it. 0:13:10.760 --> 0:13:14.040 SEPPI has influential backers. It began with almost half a 0:13:14.080 --> 0:13:17.080 billion dollars in funds and support from a few governments 0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:20.559 and big foundations like Gates and Welcome. But keeping pandemics 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:24.080 front and center proves difficult. Swine flu turns out to 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:28.240 be less deadly than people feared ebola, worries EBB. Much 0:13:28.240 --> 0:13:31.080 of the focus is on the Trump election and Brexit. 0:13:31.880 --> 0:13:36.320 Elected officials and governments probably discounted the threat when we 0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:40.240 talked about the pandemic threat and talked about the huge 0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:44.880 global cost of the pandemic. I think a lot of 0:13:45.000 --> 0:13:47.360 a lot of people kind of secretly were like rolling 0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:50.960 their eyes, thinking that we were just fearmongering. I don't 0:13:51.000 --> 0:13:59.840 think that I'll have that problem going forward. At the end, 0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:03.680 less than a year after that meeting in the Swiss Mountains, 0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:08.760 officials in China begin investigating a pneumonia outbreak, an unknown 0:14:08.800 --> 0:14:14.520 virus that's spreading fast. Within days, scores of researchers get 0:14:14.559 --> 0:14:17.560 to work on potential vaccines to combat the pathogen. A 0:14:17.559 --> 0:14:21.720 new Coronavirus Visor and its partnered bion tech Sprint out 0:14:21.760 --> 0:14:25.120 of the Gates along with another company, Maderna, which has 0:14:25.120 --> 0:14:28.400 been collaborating with the US government. Those drug makers are 0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:33.920 betting on a technology called Messenger RNA. Richard has been 0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:36.400 tracking progress in that field for years, so when he 0:14:36.440 --> 0:14:40.480 receives an email from Maderna CEO Stefan ben Sell on January, 0:14:40.760 --> 0:14:43.520 he doesn't need long to reply. The biotech company is 0:14:43.520 --> 0:14:46.560 seeking funds to move its shot into human trials. I 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:51.240 think we basically made a decision in about seven minutes. 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:54.560 I Stefan's email was like, you know whatever, Diamond was 0:14:54.600 --> 0:14:56.880 eight o'clock and it like eight oh seven. I was 0:14:56.920 --> 0:14:59.200 responding saying, yeah, I think we should do this. Let's 0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:03.000 for seed. But we knew the company, we needed the technology, 0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:06.400 and we knew the urgency at that point. They sign 0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:09.240 a contract just two days later and unveil it the 0:15:09.280 --> 0:15:13.240 next morning back in Davos. And that was actually, I 0:15:13.400 --> 0:15:18.400 believe a week before who even declared the outbreak of 0:15:18.440 --> 0:15:22.400 public health emergency of International Concerned. That's how quickly we 0:15:22.400 --> 0:15:26.840 were making decisions and moving. The vaccine race is on 0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:29.720 and most people know how it plays out. In a 0:15:29.760 --> 0:15:33.760 remarkable feat. Visor and Maderna create highly effective MR and 0:15:33.840 --> 0:15:37.240 A shots within a year. The University of Oxford and 0:15:37.280 --> 0:15:41.600 astras Eneka also crossed the finish line using a different technology, 0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:44.520 building on work to develop a shot against MERS, the 0:15:44.560 --> 0:15:48.840 other coronavirus threat, but gaps in surveillance and testing allowed 0:15:48.880 --> 0:15:52.480 the virus to take off. Many governments respond to slowly 0:15:53.000 --> 0:15:56.520 as cases climb. The Trump administration is blasted for ignoring 0:15:56.520 --> 0:16:00.600 the pandemic strategy and inherited Here's Obama speaking of the 0:16:00.640 --> 0:16:05.800 campaign rally in Philadelphia in October. We literally left this 0:16:05.960 --> 0:16:10.600 White House a pandemic playbook that would have shown them 0:16:10.640 --> 0:16:15.760 how to respond before the virus reached our shots. They 0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:19.160 probably used it, I don't know, prop up a wobbly 0:16:19.280 --> 0:16:23.280 table somewhere. We don't know where that playbook went. Wealthy nations. Meanwhile, 0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:26.800 Russia had to snap up vaccine supplies, leaving poorer regions 0:16:26.840 --> 0:16:30.480 behind and unprotected as the highly contagious delta variant spreads. 0:16:30.960 --> 0:16:36.640 The inequity of the distribution of vaccine in particular, but 0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:40.480 also the other countermeasures, oxygen and the therapeutics that we 0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:45.320 have to me that's the central story of the pandemic. 0:16:45.400 --> 0:16:50.520 It's also the central moral failure of humanity in our 0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:53.840 response to the pandemic. Richards says a program known as 0:16:53.920 --> 0:16:56.760 Kovac's is helping to right those wrongs. He was part 0:16:56.760 --> 0:16:59.960 of early discussions that led to its creation. The initiative 0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:03.600 aim to deliver vaccines fairly to every corner of the planet, 0:17:04.000 --> 0:17:07.359 but it struggled to access doses and fallen short of 0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:12.240 its goals. Wealthy governments and pharmaceutical companies have faced criticism 0:17:12.280 --> 0:17:16.160 for not doing more to narrow the divide. Next time, 0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:19.360 the world will need to spread vaccine technologies and manufacturing 0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:23.320 capabilities more widely. Petro To Blanche is trying to make 0:17:23.359 --> 0:17:26.600 that a reality. She directs a Cape Town based biotech 0:17:26.640 --> 0:17:30.600 company called Afrogen Biologics and Vaccines. The business is working 0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:32.479 with the w h O and other partners on an 0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:34.800 m R and a hub to produce new shots and 0:17:34.840 --> 0:17:38.640 train people from other countries to make them. They aim 0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:41.600 to reproduce the Madurna vaccine, a product that's failed to 0:17:41.640 --> 0:17:44.120 reach large parts of the globe, and have a candidate 0:17:44.160 --> 0:17:47.000 ready for human trials in about a year. But they're 0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:49.879 looking well beyond that project, hoping to put lower income 0:17:49.920 --> 0:17:53.360 regions in a stronger position in the future. Here's tore blanche, 0:17:54.040 --> 0:17:58.680 and it's part of a global initiative to ensure that 0:17:58.920 --> 0:18:02.280 not in any industry short term, but in the long term, 0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:05.720 low and middle income countries have access to m R 0:18:05.800 --> 0:18:09.400 and A technology platforms, and at low and middle income 0:18:09.440 --> 0:18:16.320 countries are able to sustainably manufactured at least a significant 0:18:16.400 --> 0:18:20.720 portion of the vaccines that they are required to ensure 0:18:20.880 --> 0:18:23.800 health security. This is not a one year program, This 0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:26.280 is not a five year program. This is a fifteen 0:18:26.400 --> 0:18:30.600 year program. A year after the first COVID inoculations arrived 0:18:30.600 --> 0:18:33.680 in rich countries, many African nations have yet to fully 0:18:33.760 --> 0:18:37.080 vaccinate ten percent of their people. The clearing access gap 0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:40.480 during the COVID pandemic as fueled calls to boost manufacturing 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:44.240 and developing nations and help those regions become more self sufficient. 0:18:44.840 --> 0:18:49.520 Africa imports more than of its vaccines. Petro says the 0:18:49.560 --> 0:18:52.480 past couple of years have been painful, but she's optimistic 0:18:52.600 --> 0:18:56.119 the new technologies and increased investment will have a lasting 0:18:56.160 --> 0:19:00.119 impact beyond COVID. The bigginest lesson for us is that 0:19:02.040 --> 0:19:04.919 you cannot rely on the rest of the world to 0:19:05.040 --> 0:19:08.639 provide us with how security when the rest of the 0:19:08.680 --> 0:19:13.160 world are in a pandemic um. It is the it's 0:19:13.200 --> 0:19:16.680 the it's the selfish gene that you us never underestimate. 0:19:17.680 --> 0:19:20.600 There's a route awakening that this, this, this can this 0:19:20.680 --> 0:19:25.000 cannot be repeated ever. In the West African country of Senegal, 0:19:25.160 --> 0:19:27.320 a new production plant is set to become part of 0:19:27.359 --> 0:19:29.920 the solution as well. By the end of next year, 0:19:30.000 --> 0:19:33.000 the proposed facility at the Institute Pasteur may start making 0:19:33.040 --> 0:19:37.000 twenty five million vaccine doses a month, targeting COVID and 0:19:37.040 --> 0:19:40.679 other diseases. It's backed by European countries, the US, the 0:19:40.680 --> 0:19:45.080 World Bank, and others. Amadou Saw, the veteran virologist who 0:19:45.119 --> 0:19:47.960 directs the institute in Senegal, says the plant could spurre 0:19:48.000 --> 0:19:52.639 more investment and become a model for the continent. This 0:19:52.720 --> 0:19:56.320 is not a project only about making vaccine, but also 0:19:56.400 --> 0:20:00.439 it's a great opportunity to build a future and hope 0:20:00.480 --> 0:20:03.840 that the younger generation won't have to face what we're 0:20:03.920 --> 0:20:07.720 facing right now. Amado has spent decades urging people to 0:20:07.760 --> 0:20:11.119 prepare for outbreaks. After the Ebola crisis, he received a 0:20:11.160 --> 0:20:13.800 painting as a gift from his wife and children. On 0:20:13.800 --> 0:20:17.000 one side, as a family shrouded in darkness, threatened by 0:20:17.119 --> 0:20:20.720 looming virus. The other is filled with bright light, a 0:20:20.840 --> 0:20:23.560 symbol of the science that will save them. He put 0:20:23.560 --> 0:20:25.600 it on the wall of his office in downtown Dakar, 0:20:26.200 --> 0:20:29.600 a reminder of his mission. We should be conscious that 0:20:29.680 --> 0:20:33.560 we may have other covids. They may not be necessarily COVID, 0:20:33.600 --> 0:20:37.520 that they may be influenza or another new disease, and 0:20:37.560 --> 0:20:40.639 the world should be prepared for that. But people are 0:20:40.680 --> 0:20:43.160 talking a lot about having a new normal, meaning that 0:20:43.200 --> 0:20:46.200 we would have to cope with living under some condition 0:20:46.320 --> 0:20:50.399 because the epidemic may be something very regular we have 0:20:50.520 --> 0:20:54.720 to take into account. As Amadou says, Africa, along with 0:20:54.760 --> 0:20:58.280 the rest of the world, will be tested again. Coronavirus 0:20:58.400 --> 0:21:02.359 is influenza, and of other pathogens around scientists watch list. 0:21:03.000 --> 0:21:06.360 Then there are diseases that aren't yet known to infect humans. 0:21:06.880 --> 0:21:10.040 The next ones could be tougher targets. Scientists may not 0:21:10.080 --> 0:21:13.280 be able to easily replicate the COVID success story, work 0:21:13.320 --> 0:21:17.880 that benefited from previous investments in targeting coronaviruses. Despite decades 0:21:17.880 --> 0:21:20.320 of work, there still is in a vaccine for HIV 0:21:20.880 --> 0:21:24.280 as Imperials Robin Shattuck knows well. The danger is that 0:21:24.440 --> 0:21:27.360 something new comes along on people expect it solved within 0:21:27.400 --> 0:21:31.159 a year, and it may just be a bigger challenge 0:21:31.240 --> 0:21:36.080 for the scientific community. Robbin's experience also underscores the complexities 0:21:36.119 --> 0:21:40.280 of vaccine development. After falling behind, Imperial decided not to 0:21:40.320 --> 0:21:43.119 go forward with a larger trial this year, lacking the 0:21:43.119 --> 0:21:46.560 budget of a big farm a company. Instead, it's refocused 0:21:46.560 --> 0:21:52.440 on variants, booster shots, and refining its approach. Their technology 0:21:52.480 --> 0:21:54.960 may not play a role today, the hope is that 0:21:55.000 --> 0:21:58.400 it will in the future. In September, a university spinoff 0:21:58.480 --> 0:22:02.960 Robin co founded attracted astros Eneka as a partner. Imperial's method, 0:22:03.000 --> 0:22:07.399 called self amplifying RNA shows potential and stimulating strong immune 0:22:07.440 --> 0:22:12.800 responses with very small doses. Messenger RNA vaccines temporarily turned 0:22:12.800 --> 0:22:17.000 the body cells into vaccine making factories. This could be 0:22:17.000 --> 0:22:20.240 part of the next generation. If Robin's team can prove 0:22:20.280 --> 0:22:25.360 it works, the technology could reduce manufacturing costs in a pandemic. 0:22:25.520 --> 0:22:28.119 It could allow supplies to reach vast parts of the world. 0:22:29.720 --> 0:22:33.080 If we can meet that challenge of very low doses, 0:22:33.520 --> 0:22:40.800 it completely changes the productivity and will enhance global access. 0:22:41.480 --> 0:22:44.119 So if you can make thirty two a hundred times 0:22:44.160 --> 0:22:47.120 more vaccine, then you're going to have just way more 0:22:47.160 --> 0:22:50.600 doses to to go around. Another goal is avoiding the 0:22:50.680 --> 0:22:54.560 need to freeze or one day even refrigerate RNA vaccines 0:22:54.680 --> 0:22:58.119 during shipping and storage. That could remove an obstacle for 0:22:58.160 --> 0:23:03.159 immunization campaigns into heloping countries. The rollout in low and 0:23:03.280 --> 0:23:08.800 middle income countries has been tragically slow, and we can't 0:23:09.680 --> 0:23:12.560 continue to live with this kind of two phase approach 0:23:12.640 --> 0:23:16.360 where rich countries get vaccinated very quickly and are already 0:23:16.359 --> 0:23:21.360 thinking about boosters, where low income countries just have had 0:23:21.680 --> 0:23:30.600 perishingly few vaccine doses. Richard now wants to draw on 0:23:30.680 --> 0:23:33.040 those lessons. One part of the plan is creating a 0:23:33.080 --> 0:23:36.639 library at prototype vaccines targeting up to two dozen viral 0:23:36.720 --> 0:23:40.320 families that could provide a crucial head start in battling 0:23:40.359 --> 0:23:45.040 future outbreaks when they arise. Scientists are also working on 0:23:45.080 --> 0:23:48.600 experimental all in one vaccines that could offer broad protection 0:23:48.720 --> 0:23:52.280 against multiple coronavirus is not just the one that causes COVID, 0:23:52.840 --> 0:23:57.080 and Richard wants to move even faster on vaccines, potentially 0:23:57.119 --> 0:24:02.520 developing them in just one days. A moonshot ambition we 0:24:02.960 --> 0:24:07.640 can see a pathway and perhaps as little as as 0:24:07.840 --> 0:24:12.360 ten years of focused work two radically reduce the risk 0:24:12.480 --> 0:24:15.639 that these diseases present, you know, for the future. And 0:24:15.880 --> 0:24:18.359 if we can do that, we will live in a 0:24:18.480 --> 0:24:22.200 much safer world. Still, the next pandemic could happen sooner 0:24:22.240 --> 0:24:25.800 than we think. Rising populations and increased travel can allow 0:24:25.920 --> 0:24:30.680 viruses to spread quickly. Encroachment into natural habitats, swelling cities, 0:24:30.760 --> 0:24:34.320 and wildlife trade raise the likelihood of diseases jumping from 0:24:34.359 --> 0:24:38.320 animals to people, and researchers say climate change is expanding 0:24:38.359 --> 0:24:42.000 the range of disease carrying insects like mosquitoes. There are 0:24:42.040 --> 0:24:47.520 a number of trend lines that would increase the risk 0:24:47.680 --> 0:24:51.240 of future emerging diseases, and all those trend lines are 0:24:51.280 --> 0:24:54.000 long term trends, and they're all heading in the wrong direction. 0:24:54.720 --> 0:24:58.480 So I think what we're dealing with is a a 0:24:58.680 --> 0:25:04.280 category of of thread that has not been discharged because 0:25:04.320 --> 0:25:06.359 we've now had a pandemic. That doesn't buy us another 0:25:06.440 --> 0:25:10.560 hundred years of safety. Vaccines are just one tool, along 0:25:10.560 --> 0:25:15.600 with expanded monitoring and sequencing to track mutations. Artificial intelligence 0:25:15.760 --> 0:25:20.359 and data analysis are also critical. Sally Davies England's former 0:25:20.440 --> 0:25:23.320 Chief Medical officer is on the front lines of that effort. 0:25:23.800 --> 0:25:27.040 Last year, she formed the Trinity Challenge, a coalition that's 0:25:27.040 --> 0:25:30.719 funding promising projects all over the world from Europe to Asia. 0:25:31.160 --> 0:25:35.840 Technology companies Facebook, Google and Microsoft are members. We came 0:25:35.880 --> 0:25:42.080 together saying never again. We asked people to engineer the 0:25:42.200 --> 0:25:47.040 collision of data science with public health to answer the 0:25:47.160 --> 0:25:52.960 questions by producing innovations that can be scaled, that can 0:25:53.040 --> 0:25:57.600 become public goods affordable in loan middle income countries as well, 0:25:58.359 --> 0:26:01.080