1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:04,880 Speaker 1: It's January nine and prime ministers, CEOs and celebrities are 2 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:07,720 Speaker 1: gathering in the Swiss Alps for an annual summit. A 3 00:00:07,760 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 1: globalization backlash, growth in China and trade tensions are dominating 4 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 1: the agenda. Actor Matt Damon is also here talking about 5 00:00:17,480 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 1: the need to improve access to clean water. On the 6 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:24,400 Speaker 1: sidelines of the World Economic Forum, an American doctor and 7 00:00:24,440 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 1: a British scientist are sounding the alarm about a different concern, 8 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 1: the specter of a pandemic. In a press conference, Richard 9 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:36,160 Speaker 1: Hatchett highlights the mission of his organization, launched two years 10 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:40,479 Speaker 1: earlier to combat infectious disease outbreaks with new vaccines. Sitting 11 00:00:40,520 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 1: beside two drug industry executives and the head of a 12 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:47,479 Speaker 1: health charity, he says the risks are rising in our 13 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:50,879 Speaker 1: hyper connected world. Epidemics have the potential to hop from 14 00:00:50,880 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 1: continent to continent, spreading far beyond the places where they emerge. 15 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 1: His group, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, is pushing 16 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 1: to speed development of exts means against a range of threats, 17 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:05,919 Speaker 1: including a coronavirus that causes Middle East respiratory syndrome or mirrors. 18 00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 1: And there's more to richard strategy. We have also announced 19 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:13,280 Speaker 1: our first investments to tackle disease X, the disease we 20 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 1: don't know about, the emerging disease with the potential to 21 00:01:16,240 --> 00:01:19,680 Speaker 1: cause a pandemic. One investment is in a program at 22 00:01:19,720 --> 00:01:23,440 Speaker 1: Imperial College London led by Robin Shattuck. The research ames 23 00:01:23,480 --> 00:01:26,240 Speaker 1: to create vaccines that can be scaled up rapidly to 24 00:01:26,319 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 1: respond to outbreaks of those mysterious pathogens. Richard sees on 25 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 1: the horizon, the event in Davos is a prime opportunity 26 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,880 Speaker 1: to address some of the planet's most prominent decision makers. 27 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:40,760 Speaker 1: Robin sets the scene standing in front of a screen 28 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 1: with images of people walking along a bustling city sidewalk. Now, 29 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:48,240 Speaker 1: imagine you're standing in any major city in the world 30 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:51,080 Speaker 1: and as an outbreak of what we call disease X, 31 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:57,360 Speaker 1: an unknown respiratory pathogen, how quickly could we respond. The 32 00:01:57,440 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 1: reality is that for most countries there's no regional mechanism 33 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 1: that could manufacture and distribute vaccines in a meaningful time frame. 34 00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:10,040 Speaker 1: Just think about that for a moment. But many people 35 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 1: are thinking about a deadly pandemic potentially triggered by avian 36 00:02:13,639 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 1: flu as a distant possibility, not an imminent one. Ebola 37 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:22,400 Speaker 1: killed more than eleven thousand people in West Africa between, 38 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 1: but that virus and others like Stars, Mirrors and Zeka 39 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:29,360 Speaker 1: had all faded from the headlines. Robin reflects on the 40 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 1: prevailing sentiment at the time. The scientific community is set 41 00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: up pandemic is coming, It's coming. But having said that, 42 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:41,920 Speaker 1: for at least ten years, people were getting very used 43 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:47,359 Speaker 1: to the drumbeat and not actually really appreciating the threat. 44 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:50,240 Speaker 1: So it isn't exactly a packed house when the Imperial 45 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 1: scientist warns of a novel and potentially dangerous virus that 46 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:57,000 Speaker 1: could suddenly strike. There have been the experience with a bowler, 47 00:02:57,720 --> 00:03:02,440 Speaker 1: but that was still relatively geer graphically isolated and wasn't 48 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 1: a global phenomena. And so in Davos when we gave presentation, 49 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 1: I think there were about thirty people in the audience 50 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:14,799 Speaker 1: um and none of them of particular levels of influence. 51 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:20,080 Speaker 1: For years, scientists that issued warnings and urgent calls to 52 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 1: bolster our health defenses, and at times those red flags 53 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 1: captured the attention of global leaders. Richard's coalition known as 54 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:31,240 Speaker 1: SEPPI is a testament to that. But when disease X 55 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:36,920 Speaker 1: hits just months later. Many countries aren't ready. Despite success 56 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 1: in creating vaccines in record time, COVID nineteen exposes the 57 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:47,320 Speaker 1: world's vulnerabilities, killing millions of people and triggering economic turmoil. 58 00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 1: Two years in, the pandemic still is in over a 59 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 1: fast spreading and heavily mutated variant. Omicron is the latest twist. 60 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 1: But virus hunters are already planning for a future, a crisis, 61 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:03,880 Speaker 1: one that could be just as bad, if not worse, 62 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:08,000 Speaker 1: and they're pointing to lessons from the past. While a 63 00:04:08,080 --> 00:04:11,360 Speaker 1: number of pathogens are on their radar, the effort also 64 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:17,360 Speaker 1: depends on anticipating threats they haven't seen before. I'm James Peyton, 65 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:20,880 Speaker 1: a health journalist at Bloomberg News from the Prognosis podcast. 66 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:39,000 Speaker 1: This is breakthrough. Richard Hatchett didn't set out to protect 67 00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:43,000 Speaker 1: the country from pandemics. At Vanderbilt University in the nineteen eighties, 68 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:46,680 Speaker 1: he was an English major and a poet. Later, he 69 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:50,200 Speaker 1: opted to go to medical school before focusing on treating cancer. 70 00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 1: Then a turning point comes On a bright late summer 71 00:04:55,560 --> 00:05:00,600 Speaker 1: day in two thousand one, News outlets like CNN interrupt 72 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 1: their coverage this justin you were looking at obviously a 73 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:07,479 Speaker 1: very disturbing live shot there. That is the World Trade Center, 74 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:10,719 Speaker 1: and we have unconfirmed reports this morning that a plane 75 00:05:10,800 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 1: has crashed into one of the towers. A second hijacked 76 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:18,279 Speaker 1: plane slams into the South Tower, and soon New York's 77 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 1: tallest buildings collapse. Thousands of people are feared dead. Richard, 78 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:27,040 Speaker 1: an emergency room doctor a Memorial Slowe Kettering Cancer Center, 79 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:30,080 Speaker 1: is determined to help the city respond to the September 80 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:34,280 Speaker 1: eleventh attack. The next morning on Wednesday, he and other 81 00:05:34,360 --> 00:05:36,599 Speaker 1: volunteers hit your ride on the truck down the West 82 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,840 Speaker 1: Side Highway and head to the smoldering ruins at ground zero. 83 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 1: It was really shocking there, obviously, was this just pulverized 84 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:50,520 Speaker 1: dust coating everything. There were cars and things that had 85 00:05:50,560 --> 00:05:52,960 Speaker 1: been abandoned. I mean, I think I remember seeing like 86 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:55,919 Speaker 1: a baby carriage that was just completely coated in white 87 00:05:56,000 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 1: dust that it clearly, you know, the parent had picked 88 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 1: up the child and had fled on foot. It smelled 89 00:06:01,760 --> 00:06:04,560 Speaker 1: poisonous and toxic in a in a way that I've 90 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 1: never experienced before. Richard's group moves a few blocks north 91 00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:11,680 Speaker 1: to a field hospital set up at Stuyvesant High School. 92 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 1: With few survivors, nurses and doctors are providing medical support 93 00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:18,720 Speaker 1: to search and rescue workers. Richard is asked to take over. 94 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: Hundreds of volunteers arrive in the next twelve hours, and 95 00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:25,760 Speaker 1: the young physician is energized by the teamwork he witnesses. 96 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:33,039 Speaker 1: That was obviously the personally transformative moment, very powerful, overwhelming 97 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:37,280 Speaker 1: in some ways, experience also remarkable to work with the 98 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:42,040 Speaker 1: medical volunteers, the nurses, the doctors who had shown up 99 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:47,680 Speaker 1: very dedicated, self motivated, used to taking accountability. But he's 100 00:06:47,680 --> 00:06:51,600 Speaker 1: also frustrated by the lack of organization. Little prior thought 101 00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:55,040 Speaker 1: had gone into harnessing the skills and talents of civilians. 102 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:58,040 Speaker 1: No one seems to have thought that anything like this 103 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 1: could happen. After three days, he hops on the subway uptown, 104 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 1: slowly making his way out into a new world. Along 105 00:07:07,040 --> 00:07:09,880 Speaker 1: the streets are photos of New Yorkers who are missing, 106 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:13,920 Speaker 1: leaving Friday morning and emerging back into this shell shop 107 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:20,920 Speaker 1: city that was just devastated and silent and had a 108 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:26,880 Speaker 1: gaping wound in the skyline. I was inspired too, you know, 109 00:07:26,960 --> 00:07:28,920 Speaker 1: drawing the experience we had, but think about what would 110 00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:31,160 Speaker 1: we need in the future if something like this happened again. 111 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:33,160 Speaker 1: How could we be better organized? How could we be 112 00:07:33,040 --> 00:07:39,240 Speaker 1: better integrated. Terrorism is now America's most urgent priority, but 113 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:42,480 Speaker 1: the threat is changing shape quickly. When letters laced with 114 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 1: anthrax begin appearing in the mail, bio defense suddenly emerges 115 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:50,560 Speaker 1: as another pressing concern. Richard is said to begin a 116 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:54,559 Speaker 1: cancer fellowship at Duke University. After nine eleven, he changed 117 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 1: his course, devising a plan to form a network of 118 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:01,680 Speaker 1: medical volunteers who can be mobilized swiftly in emergencies, not 119 00:08:01,760 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 1: just terrorism, but other health crises like epidemics. The concept 120 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:09,480 Speaker 1: catches fire. Within weeks, he and his colleagues are briefing 121 00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:13,080 Speaker 1: the White House. President Bush's endorsement follows, and in early 122 00:08:13,160 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 1: two thousand two, Richard heads to Washington to help set 123 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 1: it up. I took a complete right turn in my 124 00:08:18,680 --> 00:08:22,480 Speaker 1: career at that point, you know, deviating from my plan 125 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 1: to complete an oncology fellowship and to go on and 126 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 1: practice medicine, to to do this odd thing that didn't 127 00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:36,560 Speaker 1: seem to build on anything that I've done before. What 128 00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 1: Richard doesn't realize is that his idea, initially sparked by 129 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:43,920 Speaker 1: fears of domestic terrorism would take on increased importance in 130 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:46,439 Speaker 1: the coming years and put him on the ground floor 131 00:08:46,640 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 1: of global efforts to battle biological threats. When you decide 132 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:53,679 Speaker 1: you need to prepare the country for a pandemic, how 133 00:08:53,679 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 1: do you make that happen? And how do you persuade 134 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:59,839 Speaker 1: a complacent population to brace for a possible catastrophe? A 135 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 1: pivotal policy sixteen years ago starts with a book. It's 136 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:07,959 Speaker 1: two thousand five and George W. Bush's worries are expanding. 137 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:12,040 Speaker 1: Eleven had already been at defining moment. Hurricane Katrina is 138 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:16,440 Speaker 1: another unexpected disaster. Anxieties over an avian flu strain spreading 139 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:20,160 Speaker 1: in Asia are also running high. Then the President learns 140 00:09:20,200 --> 00:09:23,520 Speaker 1: about a pandemic almost ninety years earlier that killed tens 141 00:09:23,520 --> 00:09:27,200 Speaker 1: of millions of people worldwide. Richard is working at the 142 00:09:27,200 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 1: Infectious Disease Division of the National Institutes of Health. The 143 00:09:30,920 --> 00:09:34,600 Speaker 1: President happened to read John Barry's book The Great Influenza, 144 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 1: which was a history of the flu, and it, you know, 145 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:42,240 Speaker 1: really scared him. And here was a natural threat that 146 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:46,439 Speaker 1: had a potentially an impact that it was catastrophic beyond 147 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:53,680 Speaker 1: anything that you know, Terrorists could do. Bush elevates the 148 00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 1: issue to the top of his agenda, calling for a 149 00:09:56,480 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 1: national pandemic influenza strategy. Putting it together falls on the 150 00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:04,600 Speaker 1: shoulders of Regiev and Kayak, the President's adviser on biodefense. 151 00:10:05,360 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 1: Bush believes many parts of the government and economy aren't 152 00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:12,360 Speaker 1: focusing nearly enough on that kind of nightmare scenario. He 153 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: was regieve he didn't see that they were part of this, 154 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 1: and yet he knew that they would be affected. One 155 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:20,720 Speaker 1: of the assumptions we made in pandemic planning is that 156 00:10:21,360 --> 00:10:23,520 Speaker 1: up to a third of your workforce could be out 157 00:10:23,520 --> 00:10:26,199 Speaker 1: of work at any given time because either they were 158 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:28,839 Speaker 1: sick or at home taking care of somebody who's sick, 159 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 1: or because they're scared to come into work. Reggiev is 160 00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:35,880 Speaker 1: looking for backup, a strategic thinker with a medical background, 161 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:38,719 Speaker 1: so he contacts the office of Tony Faucci, head of 162 00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:42,480 Speaker 1: the Infectious Disease Unit, and asked for Richard Reggieve knows 163 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:45,200 Speaker 1: him from projects they'd worked on before what I asked 164 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:47,000 Speaker 1: for and was allowed to pull together a team to 165 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 1: work on the implementation plan for the National Strategy for 166 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 1: pandemic influenza. He was one of the first people that 167 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:55,559 Speaker 1: that came to mind, and we asked for him by name, 168 00:10:56,200 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 1: and so I had to make the difficult call and 169 00:10:58,600 --> 00:11:01,680 Speaker 1: request to Tony Fauci to get him to release Richard 170 00:11:02,040 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 1: to be a part of our pandemic flu efforts. And 171 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:08,079 Speaker 1: of course Tony um saw the importance of it and 172 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:12,679 Speaker 1: he agreed. Although I'm not sure gladly Bush's plan takes 173 00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 1: shape quickly. In late two thousand five, he explains the 174 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:18,719 Speaker 1: rationale and a speech televised on c SPAN proposing more 175 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 1: than seven billion dollars in spending. This moment, there is 176 00:11:21,600 --> 00:11:26,320 Speaker 1: no pandemic influenza in the United States or the world, 177 00:11:27,800 --> 00:11:29,760 Speaker 1: but if history is our guide, there is reason to 178 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:34,439 Speaker 1: be concerned. The President is determined to pick up outbreaks earlier, 179 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 1: expand vaccine production, and boost readiness at the federal, state, 180 00:11:38,520 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 1: and local levels. Waiting until the lethal pathogen emerges could 181 00:11:42,520 --> 00:11:46,120 Speaker 1: have devastating consequences, and one day, many lives could be 182 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 1: needlessly lost because we failed to act today. By preparing now, 183 00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:53,840 Speaker 1: we can give our citizens some peace of mind knowing 184 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 1: that our nation is ready to act at the first 185 00:11:56,600 --> 00:12:00,440 Speaker 1: sign of danger. But the foresight isn't fully app ciated 186 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:03,040 Speaker 1: at the time, and the US commitment to tackling those 187 00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:07,600 Speaker 1: looming pandemic risks, it's inconsistent. After the Bush years, Richard 188 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 1: continues to worry with roles on Bush's Homeland Security Council 189 00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:14,319 Speaker 1: and the National Security staff. Under Barack Obama in two 190 00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:16,560 Speaker 1: thousand nine, the new president is forced to contend with 191 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:19,480 Speaker 1: the swine flu pandemic just months into his term. The 192 00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 1: spread of hibola and Africa poses another test. The Obama 193 00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:26,679 Speaker 1: administration was quite good at learning from its experience and 194 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 1: adapting to the reality of the world that it lived in. 195 00:12:30,080 --> 00:12:34,120 Speaker 1: It and it and it did elevate global health security 196 00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:37,080 Speaker 1: as as one of its priorities. But I think it 197 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 1: was driven to do that by, you know, what happened 198 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 1: in the world, not not because it was a priority 199 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 1: from the beginning. Obama's team drafts a sixty nine page document, 200 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:49,920 Speaker 1: a pandemic playbook, outlining how to respond to deadly viruses, 201 00:12:50,440 --> 00:12:53,840 Speaker 1: and leaves it behind for the Trump administration. Richard spends 202 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:56,599 Speaker 1: several years at a US biomedical agency that works to 203 00:12:56,640 --> 00:13:01,560 Speaker 1: spur development of vaccines, drugs, and other countermeasures. Then, in 204 00:13:01,600 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 1: early seventeen, another door opens. The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness 205 00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:10,040 Speaker 1: Innovations is launched and Richard is lured to run it. 206 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 1: SEPPI has influential backers. It began with almost half a 207 00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:17,080 Speaker 1: billion dollars in funds and support from a few governments 208 00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:20,559 Speaker 1: and big foundations like Gates and Welcome. But keeping pandemics 209 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:24,080 Speaker 1: front and center proves difficult. Swine flu turns out to 210 00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:28,240 Speaker 1: be less deadly than people feared ebola, worries EBB. Much 211 00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 1: of the focus is on the Trump election and Brexit. 212 00:13:31,880 --> 00:13:36,320 Speaker 1: Elected officials and governments probably discounted the threat when we 213 00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 1: talked about the pandemic threat and talked about the huge 214 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:44,880 Speaker 1: global cost of the pandemic. I think a lot of 215 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:47,360 Speaker 1: a lot of people kind of secretly were like rolling 216 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:50,960 Speaker 1: their eyes, thinking that we were just fearmongering. I don't 217 00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:59,840 Speaker 1: think that I'll have that problem going forward. At the end, 218 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:03,680 Speaker 1: less than a year after that meeting in the Swiss Mountains, 219 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:08,760 Speaker 1: officials in China begin investigating a pneumonia outbreak, an unknown 220 00:14:08,800 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 1: virus that's spreading fast. Within days, scores of researchers get 221 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:17,560 Speaker 1: to work on potential vaccines to combat the pathogen. A 222 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:21,720 Speaker 1: new Coronavirus Visor and its partnered bion tech Sprint out 223 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:25,120 Speaker 1: of the Gates along with another company, Maderna, which has 224 00:14:25,120 --> 00:14:28,400 Speaker 1: been collaborating with the US government. Those drug makers are 225 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 1: betting on a technology called Messenger RNA. Richard has been 226 00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:36,400 Speaker 1: tracking progress in that field for years, so when he 227 00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 1: receives an email from Maderna CEO Stefan ben Sell on January, 228 00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:43,520 Speaker 1: he doesn't need long to reply. The biotech company is 229 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:46,560 Speaker 1: seeking funds to move its shot into human trials. I 230 00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:51,240 Speaker 1: think we basically made a decision in about seven minutes. 231 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 1: I Stefan's email was like, you know whatever, Diamond was 232 00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:56,880 Speaker 1: eight o'clock and it like eight oh seven. I was 233 00:14:56,920 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 1: responding saying, yeah, I think we should do this. Let's 234 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 1: for seed. But we knew the company, we needed the technology, 235 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:06,400 Speaker 1: and we knew the urgency at that point. They sign 236 00:15:06,440 --> 00:15:09,240 Speaker 1: a contract just two days later and unveil it the 237 00:15:09,280 --> 00:15:13,240 Speaker 1: next morning back in Davos. And that was actually, I 238 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:18,400 Speaker 1: believe a week before who even declared the outbreak of 239 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 1: public health emergency of International Concerned. That's how quickly we 240 00:15:22,400 --> 00:15:26,840 Speaker 1: were making decisions and moving. The vaccine race is on 241 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 1: and most people know how it plays out. In a 242 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 1: remarkable feat. Visor and Maderna create highly effective MR and 243 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 1: A shots within a year. The University of Oxford and 244 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:41,600 Speaker 1: astras Eneka also crossed the finish line using a different technology, 245 00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:44,520 Speaker 1: building on work to develop a shot against MERS, the 246 00:15:44,560 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 1: other coronavirus threat, but gaps in surveillance and testing allowed 247 00:15:48,880 --> 00:15:52,480 Speaker 1: the virus to take off. Many governments respond to slowly 248 00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:56,520 Speaker 1: as cases climb. The Trump administration is blasted for ignoring 249 00:15:56,520 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 1: the pandemic strategy and inherited Here's Obama speaking of the 250 00:16:00,640 --> 00:16:05,800 Speaker 1: campaign rally in Philadelphia in October. We literally left this 251 00:16:05,960 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 1: White House a pandemic playbook that would have shown them 252 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 1: how to respond before the virus reached our shots. They 253 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 1: probably used it, I don't know, prop up a wobbly 254 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:23,280 Speaker 1: table somewhere. We don't know where that playbook went. Wealthy nations. Meanwhile, 255 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 1: Russia had to snap up vaccine supplies, leaving poorer regions 256 00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 1: behind and unprotected as the highly contagious delta variant spreads. 257 00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 1: The inequity of the distribution of vaccine in particular, but 258 00:16:36,760 --> 00:16:40,480 Speaker 1: also the other countermeasures, oxygen and the therapeutics that we 259 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:45,320 Speaker 1: have to me that's the central story of the pandemic. 260 00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 1: It's also the central moral failure of humanity in our 261 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:53,840 Speaker 1: response to the pandemic. Richards says a program known as 262 00:16:53,920 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 1: Kovac's is helping to right those wrongs. He was part 263 00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 1: of early discussions that led to its creation. The initiative 264 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 1: aim to deliver vaccines fairly to every corner of the planet, 265 00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:07,359 Speaker 1: but it struggled to access doses and fallen short of 266 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:12,240 Speaker 1: its goals. Wealthy governments and pharmaceutical companies have faced criticism 267 00:17:12,280 --> 00:17:16,160 Speaker 1: for not doing more to narrow the divide. Next time, 268 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:19,360 Speaker 1: the world will need to spread vaccine technologies and manufacturing 269 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:23,320 Speaker 1: capabilities more widely. Petro To Blanche is trying to make 270 00:17:23,359 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 1: that a reality. She directs a Cape Town based biotech 271 00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:30,600 Speaker 1: company called Afrogen Biologics and Vaccines. The business is working 272 00:17:30,640 --> 00:17:32,479 Speaker 1: with the w h O and other partners on an 273 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 1: m R and a hub to produce new shots and 274 00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:38,640 Speaker 1: train people from other countries to make them. They aim 275 00:17:38,720 --> 00:17:41,600 Speaker 1: to reproduce the Madurna vaccine, a product that's failed to 276 00:17:41,640 --> 00:17:44,120 Speaker 1: reach large parts of the globe, and have a candidate 277 00:17:44,160 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 1: ready for human trials in about a year. But they're 278 00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:49,879 Speaker 1: looking well beyond that project, hoping to put lower income 279 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:53,360 Speaker 1: regions in a stronger position in the future. Here's tore blanche, 280 00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:58,680 Speaker 1: and it's part of a global initiative to ensure that 281 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:02,280 Speaker 1: not in any industry short term, but in the long term, 282 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:05,720 Speaker 1: low and middle income countries have access to m R 283 00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:09,400 Speaker 1: and A technology platforms, and at low and middle income 284 00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 1: countries are able to sustainably manufactured at least a significant 285 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:20,720 Speaker 1: portion of the vaccines that they are required to ensure 286 00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 1: health security. This is not a one year program, This 287 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 1: is not a five year program. This is a fifteen 288 00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:30,600 Speaker 1: year program. A year after the first COVID inoculations arrived 289 00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:33,680 Speaker 1: in rich countries, many African nations have yet to fully 290 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 1: vaccinate ten percent of their people. The clearing access gap 291 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 1: during the COVID pandemic as fueled calls to boost manufacturing 292 00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:44,240 Speaker 1: and developing nations and help those regions become more self sufficient. 293 00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:49,520 Speaker 1: Africa imports more than of its vaccines. Petro says the 294 00:18:49,560 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 1: past couple of years have been painful, but she's optimistic 295 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:56,119 Speaker 1: the new technologies and increased investment will have a lasting 296 00:18:56,160 --> 00:19:00,119 Speaker 1: impact beyond COVID. The bigginest lesson for us is that 297 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:04,919 Speaker 1: you cannot rely on the rest of the world to 298 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:08,639 Speaker 1: provide us with how security when the rest of the 299 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:13,160 Speaker 1: world are in a pandemic um. It is the it's 300 00:19:13,200 --> 00:19:16,680 Speaker 1: the it's the selfish gene that you us never underestimate. 301 00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:20,600 Speaker 1: There's a route awakening that this, this, this can this 302 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:25,000 Speaker 1: cannot be repeated ever. In the West African country of Senegal, 303 00:19:25,160 --> 00:19:27,320 Speaker 1: a new production plant is set to become part of 304 00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:29,920 Speaker 1: the solution as well. By the end of next year, 305 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:33,000 Speaker 1: the proposed facility at the Institute Pasteur may start making 306 00:19:33,040 --> 00:19:37,000 Speaker 1: twenty five million vaccine doses a month, targeting COVID and 307 00:19:37,040 --> 00:19:40,679 Speaker 1: other diseases. It's backed by European countries, the US, the 308 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:45,080 Speaker 1: World Bank, and others. Amadou Saw, the veteran virologist who 309 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:47,960 Speaker 1: directs the institute in Senegal, says the plant could spurre 310 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:52,639 Speaker 1: more investment and become a model for the continent. This 311 00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 1: is not a project only about making vaccine, but also 312 00:19:56,400 --> 00:20:00,439 Speaker 1: it's a great opportunity to build a future and hope 313 00:20:00,480 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 1: that the younger generation won't have to face what we're 314 00:20:03,920 --> 00:20:07,720 Speaker 1: facing right now. Amado has spent decades urging people to 315 00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:11,119 Speaker 1: prepare for outbreaks. After the Ebola crisis, he received a 316 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:13,800 Speaker 1: painting as a gift from his wife and children. On 317 00:20:13,800 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 1: one side, as a family shrouded in darkness, threatened by 318 00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:20,720 Speaker 1: looming virus. The other is filled with bright light, a 319 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 1: symbol of the science that will save them. He put 320 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 1: it on the wall of his office in downtown Dakar, 321 00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:29,600 Speaker 1: a reminder of his mission. We should be conscious that 322 00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 1: we may have other covids. They may not be necessarily COVID, 323 00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:37,520 Speaker 1: that they may be influenza or another new disease, and 324 00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:40,639 Speaker 1: the world should be prepared for that. But people are 325 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,160 Speaker 1: talking a lot about having a new normal, meaning that 326 00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:46,200 Speaker 1: we would have to cope with living under some condition 327 00:20:46,320 --> 00:20:50,399 Speaker 1: because the epidemic may be something very regular we have 328 00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:54,720 Speaker 1: to take into account. As Amadou says, Africa, along with 329 00:20:54,760 --> 00:20:58,280 Speaker 1: the rest of the world, will be tested again. Coronavirus 330 00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 1: is influenza, and of other pathogens around scientists watch list. 331 00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:06,360 Speaker 1: Then there are diseases that aren't yet known to infect humans. 332 00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 1: The next ones could be tougher targets. Scientists may not 333 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 1: be able to easily replicate the COVID success story, work 334 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:17,880 Speaker 1: that benefited from previous investments in targeting coronaviruses. Despite decades 335 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,320 Speaker 1: of work, there still is in a vaccine for HIV 336 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:24,280 Speaker 1: as Imperials Robin Shattuck knows well. The danger is that 337 00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:27,360 Speaker 1: something new comes along on people expect it solved within 338 00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:31,159 Speaker 1: a year, and it may just be a bigger challenge 339 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 1: for the scientific community. Robbin's experience also underscores the complexities 340 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:40,280 Speaker 1: of vaccine development. After falling behind, Imperial decided not to 341 00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:43,119 Speaker 1: go forward with a larger trial this year, lacking the 342 00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:46,560 Speaker 1: budget of a big farm a company. Instead, it's refocused 343 00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:52,440 Speaker 1: on variants, booster shots, and refining its approach. Their technology 344 00:21:52,480 --> 00:21:54,960 Speaker 1: may not play a role today, the hope is that 345 00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:58,400 Speaker 1: it will in the future. In September, a university spinoff 346 00:21:58,480 --> 00:22:02,960 Speaker 1: Robin co founded attracted astros Eneka as a partner. Imperial's method, 347 00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:07,399 Speaker 1: called self amplifying RNA shows potential and stimulating strong immune 348 00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 1: responses with very small doses. Messenger RNA vaccines temporarily turned 349 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:17,000 Speaker 1: the body cells into vaccine making factories. This could be 350 00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:20,240 Speaker 1: part of the next generation. If Robin's team can prove 351 00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:25,360 Speaker 1: it works, the technology could reduce manufacturing costs in a pandemic. 352 00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,119 Speaker 1: It could allow supplies to reach vast parts of the world. 353 00:22:29,720 --> 00:22:33,080 Speaker 1: If we can meet that challenge of very low doses, 354 00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:40,800 Speaker 1: it completely changes the productivity and will enhance global access. 355 00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,119 Speaker 1: So if you can make thirty two a hundred times 356 00:22:44,160 --> 00:22:47,120 Speaker 1: more vaccine, then you're going to have just way more 357 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 1: doses to to go around. Another goal is avoiding the 358 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:54,560 Speaker 1: need to freeze or one day even refrigerate RNA vaccines 359 00:22:54,680 --> 00:22:58,119 Speaker 1: during shipping and storage. That could remove an obstacle for 360 00:22:58,160 --> 00:23:03,159 Speaker 1: immunization campaigns into heloping countries. The rollout in low and 361 00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 1: middle income countries has been tragically slow, and we can't 362 00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,560 Speaker 1: continue to live with this kind of two phase approach 363 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:16,360 Speaker 1: where rich countries get vaccinated very quickly and are already 364 00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:21,360 Speaker 1: thinking about boosters, where low income countries just have had 365 00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:30,600 Speaker 1: perishingly few vaccine doses. Richard now wants to draw on 366 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,040 Speaker 1: those lessons. One part of the plan is creating a 367 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:36,639 Speaker 1: library at prototype vaccines targeting up to two dozen viral 368 00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:40,320 Speaker 1: families that could provide a crucial head start in battling 369 00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 1: future outbreaks when they arise. Scientists are also working on 370 00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:48,600 Speaker 1: experimental all in one vaccines that could offer broad protection 371 00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:52,280 Speaker 1: against multiple coronavirus is not just the one that causes COVID, 372 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:57,080 Speaker 1: and Richard wants to move even faster on vaccines, potentially 373 00:23:57,119 --> 00:24:02,520 Speaker 1: developing them in just one days. A moonshot ambition we 374 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:07,640 Speaker 1: can see a pathway and perhaps as little as as 375 00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:12,360 Speaker 1: ten years of focused work two radically reduce the risk 376 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:15,639 Speaker 1: that these diseases present, you know, for the future. And 377 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,359 Speaker 1: if we can do that, we will live in a 378 00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:22,200 Speaker 1: much safer world. Still, the next pandemic could happen sooner 379 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:25,800 Speaker 1: than we think. Rising populations and increased travel can allow 380 00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:30,680 Speaker 1: viruses to spread quickly. Encroachment into natural habitats, swelling cities, 381 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:34,320 Speaker 1: and wildlife trade raise the likelihood of diseases jumping from 382 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:38,320 Speaker 1: animals to people, and researchers say climate change is expanding 383 00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:42,000 Speaker 1: the range of disease carrying insects like mosquitoes. There are 384 00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:47,520 Speaker 1: a number of trend lines that would increase the risk 385 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:51,240 Speaker 1: of future emerging diseases, and all those trend lines are 386 00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:54,000 Speaker 1: long term trends, and they're all heading in the wrong direction. 387 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 1: So I think what we're dealing with is a a 388 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 1: category of of thread that has not been discharged because 389 00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:06,359 Speaker 1: we've now had a pandemic. That doesn't buy us another 390 00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:10,560 Speaker 1: hundred years of safety. Vaccines are just one tool, along 391 00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 1: with expanded monitoring and sequencing to track mutations. Artificial intelligence 392 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:20,359 Speaker 1: and data analysis are also critical. Sally Davies England's former 393 00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:23,320 Speaker 1: Chief Medical officer is on the front lines of that effort. 394 00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 1: Last year, she formed the Trinity Challenge, a coalition that's 395 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:30,719 Speaker 1: funding promising projects all over the world from Europe to Asia. 396 00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:35,840 Speaker 1: Technology companies Facebook, Google and Microsoft are members. We came 397 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:42,080 Speaker 1: together saying never again. We asked people to engineer the 398 00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:47,040 Speaker 1: collision of data science with public health to answer the 399 00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:52,960 Speaker 1: questions by producing innovations that can be scaled, that can 400 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:57,600 Speaker 1: become public goods affordable in loan middle income countries as well, 401 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 1: to really make a difference to can you pick up 402 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:05,080 Speaker 1: spill over earlier? Can you clamp down on an outbreak? 403 00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:09,960 Speaker 1: Can we respond better? Can we recover better? One recipient 404 00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,959 Speaker 1: of Trinity funds in Thailand arms local farmers with an 405 00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,879 Speaker 1: app that allows them to quickly flag emerging diseases that 406 00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:19,440 Speaker 1: could pass from animals to humans. Another is using AI 407 00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:22,040 Speaker 1: to analyze billions of annual blood tests to try to 408 00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:25,520 Speaker 1: pick up epidemics early. Those initiatives could give governments an 409 00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:29,879 Speaker 1: edge and preventing local outbreaks from exploding into something far worse. 410 00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:32,920 Speaker 1: The former UK health official is focused on a number 411 00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 1: of risks like influenza. She also worries about a different 412 00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:39,000 Speaker 1: kind of pandemic, one that's moving more slowly than COVID 413 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:42,280 Speaker 1: but killing hundreds of thousands of people every year. I 414 00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:46,720 Speaker 1: am very concerned about anti microbial resistance, the superbugs, the 415 00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:50,480 Speaker 1: bugs that developed resistance to the treatments we use, whether 416 00:26:50,520 --> 00:26:55,960 Speaker 1: it's bacteria to antibiotics, viruses to anti virals, fungi to 417 00:26:56,080 --> 00:27:00,760 Speaker 1: their treatments, which is a slow and silent pandemic that's 418 00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:06,120 Speaker 1: rising steadily up. Money and expertise are important, but galvanizing 419 00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:10,919 Speaker 1: world leaders also requires tenacity. In Sally Davies pushed then 420 00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:15,080 Speaker 1: Prime Minister David Cameron to take on superbugs. Or my 421 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:20,440 Speaker 1: husband once said, when I was Chief Medical Officer, the 422 00:27:20,480 --> 00:27:25,439 Speaker 1: senior people probably thought they'd appointed a doctor who would 423 00:27:25,440 --> 00:27:28,359 Speaker 1: tell them the evidence. Well, they didn't understand was they 424 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:31,080 Speaker 1: got a campaigner who was a doctor who would tell 425 00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:35,399 Speaker 1: them the evidence. And the evidence on anti microbial resistance 426 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:40,040 Speaker 1: is powerful. It wasn't strong enough. When I realized we 427 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:43,320 Speaker 1: needed as a world to move on it, so I 428 00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:46,240 Speaker 1: went with our Cabinet secretary to see the then Prime 429 00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:51,000 Speaker 1: Minister Cameron. I said to him, it's as complex and 430 00:27:51,160 --> 00:27:55,399 Speaker 1: complicated as climate change. She and her colleagues moved the 431 00:27:55,440 --> 00:27:57,920 Speaker 1: issue out of the realm of technocrats, as she puts it, 432 00:27:58,080 --> 00:28:00,600 Speaker 1: and into the public eye. Report that came out of 433 00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:04,000 Speaker 1: this effort found that without any action, drug resistant diseases 434 00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,919 Speaker 1: by twenty fifty could cause up to ten million deaths 435 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:10,880 Speaker 1: a year and have massive economic costs. It's not too late, 436 00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,200 Speaker 1: but we must take action. All there will be many 437 00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:18,800 Speaker 1: dead because you, the politicians haven't committed the money. You 438 00:28:19,040 --> 00:28:22,800 Speaker 1: the companies haven't made new drugs, We have not set 439 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:27,359 Speaker 1: up surveillance systems. Here I am banging on still seven 440 00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:33,719 Speaker 1: eight years after I started. People tend to believe the 441 00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:36,199 Speaker 1: future will look like the past. So how do you 442 00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:40,520 Speaker 1: prepare for something you can't imagine? Here's regieve again. The 443 00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,720 Speaker 1: former Bush advisor now runs the vaccines business for Takeda, 444 00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:46,880 Speaker 1: the Japanese pharmaceutical company, and he's also on the board 445 00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,840 Speaker 1: of SEPPI. The swine flu or H one N one 446 00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:53,520 Speaker 1: pandemic should have been a warning instead, because the fallout 447 00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:56,600 Speaker 1: was limited, R. Jeeves says, it led people to relax. 448 00:28:57,920 --> 00:29:01,400 Speaker 1: This is a real concern that people's imagination will be 449 00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:07,360 Speaker 1: limited by their most recent experience. UH the H one 450 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:14,000 Speaker 1: N one pandemic paradoxically probably drove a level of complacency 451 00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:19,200 Speaker 1: around influenza. Now, COVID will likely be seen as a 452 00:29:19,200 --> 00:29:21,960 Speaker 1: worst case scenario given the massive health and economic pain 453 00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,920 Speaker 1: it's caused, But we could see a similar story play 454 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:28,400 Speaker 1: out again, and it's possible a future contagion could be 455 00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:32,280 Speaker 1: even more devastating, combining an ability to spread easily with 456 00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:35,920 Speaker 1: a higher fatality rate. The virus that causes COVID is 457 00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:40,080 Speaker 1: much less lethal than stars and mers. Another worry is 458 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:43,240 Speaker 1: a disease that severely afflicts groups beyond the elderly and 459 00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:47,640 Speaker 1: those with underlying health conditions. Take the pandemic the one 460 00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:51,160 Speaker 1: that frightened President Bush. People between twenty and forty years 461 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:53,600 Speaker 1: old were hit hard by that virus, as well as 462 00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:58,200 Speaker 1: younger and older populations. I see plenty of reasons why 463 00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:01,400 Speaker 1: COVID could be far from the worst UH pandemic that 464 00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:05,120 Speaker 1: we could face, and battling dangerous viruses could become more 465 00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:11,040 Speaker 1: difficult as governments and scientists confront distrust and it divided population. Frankly, 466 00:30:11,080 --> 00:30:14,360 Speaker 1: my biggest concern coming out of this pandemic is the 467 00:30:14,480 --> 00:30:18,959 Speaker 1: undermining of confidence in public health authorities and the scientific 468 00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:24,680 Speaker 1: community that we've seen driven by misinformation and disinformation, and 469 00:30:24,760 --> 00:30:27,360 Speaker 1: that is not something that's going to be corrected overnight. 470 00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:31,000 Speaker 1: Countries cannot afford to let that persist. We're going to 471 00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,680 Speaker 1: have to have a comprehensive strategy to deal with with misinformation, 472 00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,720 Speaker 1: because in the absence of that, we will have a 473 00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:41,880 Speaker 1: chaotic response, as we've seen in many parts of the US, 474 00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:45,880 Speaker 1: and that will ultimately lead to far more people getting 475 00:30:45,880 --> 00:30:51,240 Speaker 1: sick and dying as we're seeing today than necessary. Regieves says. 476 00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:53,600 Speaker 1: Health officials need to take advantage of the focus on 477 00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:58,640 Speaker 1: COVID to step up development of vaccines, therapies, and testing technology. 478 00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 1: There's no guarantee that whatever we do is going to 479 00:31:01,920 --> 00:31:05,040 Speaker 1: eliminate the pandemic threat, to be clear, but there's a 480 00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:07,880 Speaker 1: lot that we could do to be more prepared, not 481 00:31:07,960 --> 00:31:11,280 Speaker 1: just for flu viruses and coronaviruses, but for viruses from 482 00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:16,680 Speaker 1: other families. One key is messenger RNA. It's a bright 483 00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:19,040 Speaker 1: spot amid the misery of the past two years that 484 00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:22,320 Speaker 1: bodes well for the future, bringing the benefits of speed 485 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:26,200 Speaker 1: and flexibility, even if traditional methods will still be needed. 486 00:31:27,080 --> 00:31:29,440 Speaker 1: Nations also must brought in their efforts to keep up 487 00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:33,000 Speaker 1: with both old scourges as well as new enemies. Richard says, 488 00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:36,640 Speaker 1: Nipa and Hendra, the deadly paramix of viruses, are expanding 489 00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:39,600 Speaker 1: their global range, and they're just a couple of examples. 490 00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:44,080 Speaker 1: We got out of the gate like Hussain Bold in 491 00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:47,320 Speaker 1: terms of responding to coronaviruses, and we're not ready to 492 00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,280 Speaker 1: do that with other viral families. And there are many 493 00:31:50,360 --> 00:31:54,200 Speaker 1: other viral families that present concerns. We need to be 494 00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:58,000 Speaker 1: as ready for paramix of viruses and and for you know, 495 00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:01,960 Speaker 1: the other five viral families that are known to cause 496 00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:08,000 Speaker 1: human disease as we were for coronavirus. Is twenty years 497 00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,320 Speaker 1: after nine eleven, Richard again sees an opportunity in the 498 00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:14,400 Speaker 1: wake of a disaster. He envisions the world in which 499 00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,960 Speaker 1: pandemics are preventable in the same way famines are no 500 00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:21,720 Speaker 1: longer inevitable thanks to early warning efforts, but achieving that 501 00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:26,000 Speaker 1: will be a massive challenge. After COVID nineteen, I am 502 00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:31,280 Speaker 1: very concerned that in a sense, as as damaging and 503 00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:34,400 Speaker 1: disruptive as it has been, as many millions of people 504 00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:37,960 Speaker 1: as it has killed, and as much economic damage as 505 00:32:37,960 --> 00:32:40,960 Speaker 1: it has caused, which is in the tens of trillions 506 00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:44,160 Speaker 1: of dollars probably that COVID may just be a shot 507 00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:47,040 Speaker 1: across the bowl that there is ahead of us in 508 00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:52,560 Speaker 1: this century, a pandemic that would make COVID look like 509 00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:56,640 Speaker 1: a mild pandemic relative to what is possible For now. 510 00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,520 Speaker 1: The priority is getting COVID under control and grappling with 511 00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:03,200 Speaker 1: the risk posed by variants like amicron, taking advantage of 512 00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:06,440 Speaker 1: the innovation that emerges from the pandemic. Strengthening the w 513 00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:10,640 Speaker 1: h O and boosting funding are seen as important next steps. 514 00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:14,080 Speaker 1: That's spending to try to avert a future calamity. It 515 00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:16,880 Speaker 1: would be tiny compared with the potential cost. If we 516 00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:21,400 Speaker 1: stay focused and and leverage the political will that COVID 517 00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:27,360 Speaker 1: has generated. I think we can dramatically reduce or even 518 00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:31,360 Speaker 1: eliminate the risk of future pandemics if we want to, 519 00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:34,080 Speaker 1: and I think we have to, because I think they're 520 00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:40,680 Speaker 1: an existential threat to modern society. It's a message governments 521 00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:43,320 Speaker 1: have failed to heat in the past. Well the world 522 00:33:43,400 --> 00:33:45,960 Speaker 1: assume that this is a once in a century event 523 00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:49,760 Speaker 1: and let its guard down again when COVID finally recedes, 524 00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,360 Speaker 1: or will we see this pandemic as a wake up call? 525 00:33:54,440 --> 00:34:14,400 Speaker 1: The health and economic stakes couldn't be higher This episode 526 00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:17,800 Speaker 1: of Prognosis Breakthrough was written and reported by me. James 527 00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:21,640 Speaker 1: peyton To for Foreheads and Magnus Hendrickson are the senior producers. 528 00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:26,040 Speaker 1: Karl Kevin Robinson Jr. Is our associate producer. Our theme 529 00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:30,040 Speaker 1: music was composed and performed by Hannis Brown. Rick Shine 530 00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:33,840 Speaker 1: is our editor. Francesco Levy is the head of Bloomberg Podcast. 531 00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:36,799 Speaker 1: Be sure to subscribe if you haven't already, and if 532 00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:39,680 Speaker 1: you liked this episode, please leave us a review. It 533 00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:42,760 Speaker 1: helps others find out about the show. Thanks for listening.