Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bets. This me Joey p jop Zapia and this
Speaker 1: is BP NFL Man. I've waited a long time to
Speaker 1: say that. It's so good to be back here. As
Speaker 1: we're kicking off our NFL shows preseason time, look at
Speaker 1: ahead to the twenty twenty five slash twenty twenty six
Speaker 1: NFL season, and I'm here with my boys, My boys
Speaker 1: Terrell Furman Junior and Andrew Erickson. Gang is all back together.
Speaker 1: It just feels right and we're gonna be previewing all
Speaker 1: the divisions. We're gonna start with the AFC North Division.
Speaker 1: We're gonna look at the team win totals, look at
Speaker 1: the future, look at the changes, break it all down
Speaker 1: for you here. Don't forget to subscribe to the Betting
Speaker 1: Pros YouTube channel right now, ring the belt till it
Speaker 1: goes ding for notifications. See, you never miss a moment
Speaker 1: of content because before you know it, the NFL season
Speaker 1: will be here and we're here to make some money
Speaker 1: on it. And gentlemen, let's start with a division that
Speaker 1: has a lot of storylines. We have some some greatness
Speaker 1: potentially in the Ravens, we have some revenge narrative with
Speaker 1: the Bengals who just almost snuck in the back door
Speaker 1: last year. And then of course we have the bottoming
Speaker 1: out potential of the Cleveland Browns, not to mention the
Speaker 1: side show that might be the Pittsburgh Steelers. So let's
Speaker 1: jump in with two feet and let's get going here.
Speaker 1: Let's start with some of the changes in this division,
Speaker 1: how it's going to impact some of our wagers we're
Speaker 1: going to make. I let's start with as Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 1: returns or to the NFL, but as Andrew Erickson so
Speaker 1: astutely put it, the biggest changes he's the new offensive
Speaker 1: coordinator of the Pittsburgh Steelers. So Andrew Rickson, I'm going
Speaker 1: to credit you with that line because you've said it
Speaker 1: before the show started, and it's funny because it's true.
Speaker 1: So DK Metcalf is there, Caleb Johnson's there, Terrell Firman, junr.
Speaker 1: The question is how many wins are going to be
Speaker 1: there with all this changeover and Aaron Rodgers bringing his oh,
Speaker 1: his Aaron Rodgers ness over to Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2: At least nine at least a winning record. That's the
Speaker 2: very least that is going to be. I mean, is
Speaker 2: Tom Kauf with it? Not Tom Caffe When I'm over
Speaker 2: here in my Giants mode.
Speaker 1: Tomlin, shake the dust off here.
Speaker 2: Man, I'm over here. I'm over here.
Speaker 1: Reminants too much w NBA.
Speaker 2: I was actually watching the two thousand and seven Giants
Speaker 2: Super Bowl run DVD once again. You know I always
Speaker 2: thumb it in there every now and then.
Speaker 1: What were you wearing as you watched it?
Speaker 2: As I was wearing. I was wearing a white T
Speaker 2: shirt with Giants Giants draws on, no pants, and I
Speaker 2: had a tub of ice cream, and I I was
Speaker 2: living out the Dolory days, living out the glory days.
Speaker 2: But yeah, Mike Tomlin here winning record, and I mean
Speaker 2: we talk about all the quarterbacks that he's done it with,
Speaker 2: Duck Hodge's, Mason Rudolph, all those subpar guys. And the
Speaker 2: thing about the Aaron Rodgers and why I love this
Speaker 2: bet this year is because if I don't hit it
Speaker 2: this year and it's Aaron Rodgers at the helm, I
Speaker 2: get to have a life long amount of content that
Speaker 2: I could say that Aaron Rodgers was the reason that
Speaker 2: Mike Tomlin had his first non winning season. So for
Speaker 2: that alone, the bet is good enough for me because
Speaker 2: it's a win win. It's a win win at this
Speaker 2: point bet because if I don't if I don't win,
Speaker 2: I get to blame Aaron Rodgers because he's done it
Speaker 2: with everybody. He's done it with absolutely no talent. And ultimately,
Speaker 2: I think Aaron Rodgers is a psychopath, and I think
Speaker 2: that he is so in his head that he doesn't
Speaker 2: want to go out like how he did with the Jets,
Speaker 2: like he wants some type of role of glory, some
Speaker 2: type of blaze of glory or something like that. And
Speaker 2: so I expect him to go out here and actually
Speaker 2: play along with Mike Tomlin. He loves Mike C. Mike
Speaker 2: C doesn't care for Aaron Rodgers, but he wants to
Speaker 2: win games, and he says, oh, yeah, I can make
Speaker 2: it work with Aaron Rodgers. So I trust Mike Tomlin
Speaker 2: here to get it done. And then you look at
Speaker 2: the Steelers. They're dogs in ten games this season, So
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm already feeling good. I got ten games
Speaker 2: where I'm like, all right, that's that's a good chance
Speaker 2: for ten wins right there, not to add the games
Speaker 2: that the books actually think the Steelers can win. Yeah,
Speaker 2: they could stumble on a nine to eight record and
Speaker 2: it could not be that good. And Aaron Rodgers feels
Speaker 2: really good about himself because he kept Mike Tomlin's winning
Speaker 2: streak alive.
Speaker 1: Well, it feels like we never left because automatically, I'm
Speaker 1: going to just pick apart some of the things you
Speaker 1: just said. Terrell no talent. Ben Roethlisberger, I think he's
Speaker 1: going to the Hall of Fame. I'll love Big Ben,
Speaker 1: but geez, I mean, he did have a quarterback that
Speaker 1: played for a decade plus and got to a couple
Speaker 1: of Super Bowls and won a couple of them.
Speaker 2: So that's not the point I was making.
Speaker 1: But he got with no talent. He did it.
Speaker 2: With no talent. He had Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges
Speaker 2: for a season and had a winning record. So yes,
Speaker 2: he did it with no talent. So whether he has
Speaker 2: talent or no talent, he gets a winning record.
Speaker 1: All right, all right. I do like the fact that
Speaker 1: they're unders in a lot of games. I can't wait
Speaker 1: for Week one. Everybody knows that I can't wait for
Speaker 1: the Jets, Steelers game, the Fields, Rogers game. That's honestly,
Speaker 1: I don't know why, Like I just I can't wait
Speaker 1: to watch that debaccle But in all seriousness, too, DK
Speaker 1: Metcalf's there now ericson, You've also got a Cale Johnson
Speaker 1: in the draft here to take over the Najie Harris
Speaker 1: role in this backfield, and who knows, maybe a little
Speaker 1: bit more too. So what do you think of the Steelers'
Speaker 1: off season before we start to look at the numbers?
Speaker 3: I mean, I think that if they kept Mason Rudolph
Speaker 3: as the starting quarterback, would their win total have really
Speaker 3: drastically altered that much? We talk about Mike tom and
Speaker 3: he always finds a way to get eight to nine wins.
Speaker 3: I get that the win totals were when they were created,
Speaker 3: they were still baking in the idea that Rogers would
Speaker 3: probably be the quarterback. When it's all said and done,
Speaker 3: that end up being winning happening. But I just think
Speaker 3: that it's going to be eight to nine wins kind
Speaker 3: of like Trail laid out, that's what this team just
Speaker 3: does every single tea.
Speaker 1: He said minimum, I say maximum. See, I think that's
Speaker 1: I think I'm.
Speaker 3: Probably more on the maximum side of things because I
Speaker 3: just don't this offense to me is going to be
Speaker 3: slow and they want to run the football, so not
Speaker 3: super exciting. I think to they're going to light at
Speaker 3: the scoreboard with points. No, they want to plague defense,
Speaker 3: win in the fourth quarter, don't turn the ball over.
Speaker 3: So I don't think it's going to be exciting. But
Speaker 3: at the end they're going to be in the AFC
Speaker 3: playoff hunt. They have a lot of divisional games down
Speaker 3: the stretch and we'll see how things shake out against
Speaker 3: the Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals to kind of break
Speaker 3: down the rest of these teams. But for me, I
Speaker 3: think that getting Rogers in there puts an adult at
Speaker 3: the quarterback position, which which is good for fantasy purposes
Speaker 3: that I'm always looking at. I mean, it's he's still
Speaker 3: better than Mason Rodoff.
Speaker 2: Question mark on adult.
Speaker 1: I was gonna say adult might be down with the
Speaker 1: best choice of words, but I mean, people were accurate.
Speaker 1: Let's get to the Bengals here. They brought back to Higgins,
Speaker 1: that's huge. They did also make one adjustment here. They
Speaker 1: got rid of lou and Oramo, who was well liked
Speaker 1: for many years there in Cincinnati's the defensive coordinator, place
Speaker 1: him with Al Golden and look, you know, you can
Speaker 1: replace coordinators all you want. I don't know if they
Speaker 1: Eric didn't necessarily have the horses on the defensive side
Speaker 1: of the football here to get the job done at
Speaker 1: the end of the day. But that's a good news
Speaker 1: for the offense and fet fantasy and maybe for some
Speaker 1: overs that we're looking at in the betting space. I
Speaker 1: would agree with you there.
Speaker 3: Al Golden is just being a terrible hand of a
Speaker 3: team and defense that has no talent across the board.
Speaker 3: And we can look at it and say, is this
Speaker 3: worse than last year?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 3: Trey Hendrickson, the guy who had all the sacks of
Speaker 3: the Bengals last year, he may hold out. We don't
Speaker 3: know if he's ever gonna play for the Cincinnati Bengals.
Speaker 3: And then they decide, okay, well, we'll rebolster, we'll revamp
Speaker 3: the pressure. In the NFL draft, We're gonna draft Shamar Stewart.
Speaker 3: It's all gonna be great. Shamar Stewart is rings unsigned
Speaker 3: because they're putting in these certain contract clauses when it
Speaker 3: comes to suspensions, and they don't have their first round
Speaker 3: pick on the team, and now he's being talked about
Speaker 3: and discussed Oh, well, he's gonna re enter next year's
Speaker 3: draft because he doesn't want to play with the Bengals either. So, yes,
Speaker 3: this defense is still a mess, regardless of Al Golden
Speaker 3: being an upgrade at defensive coordinator. I just don't think
Speaker 3: the personnel is there right now.
Speaker 1: Terrelle, anything here you want to add about the off
Speaker 1: season of the Bengals before we move on to the Browns.
Speaker 2: No, it's just the Bengals being the Bengals, right, Yeah,
Speaker 2: fair enough. There's no reason, there's no reason to be
Speaker 2: like this, Like, come on, guys, at the end of
Speaker 2: the day, yeah, literally, just be better, Like that's the
Speaker 2: only thing I have. Just be better. This is literally
Speaker 2: the best person, arguably the best person on your team.
Speaker 2: Like you could make the argument because of his impact
Speaker 2: to the defense. I mean they go from maybe being
Speaker 2: able to do something to just completely bottoming out if
Speaker 2: Trey Henderson is not there. And then you have Shamar
Speaker 2: Stewart and this weird clause that no other rookie has,
Speaker 2: but you're trying to implement it now. And he's like, wait,
Speaker 2: why why am I got to be the scapegoat for this?
Speaker 2: Why do I got to be the first person? No, No, No,
Speaker 2: they're just Bengals doing the Bengals. And you know what,
Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised if the Bengals defense was okay,
Speaker 2: because it's really hard to be as bad as they
Speaker 2: were last year. That's the only thing that's really good
Speaker 2: for them, the fact that the defense was so bad
Speaker 2: last year. That is really really really really really hard
Speaker 2: to be just as bad. And honestly, I think all
Speaker 2: of this is just a mute point because the Bengals
Speaker 2: are not starting the season without either one or two guys,
Speaker 2: So they're doing all of this, dragging all of this out,
Speaker 2: not having these guys through dough camps and all that,
Speaker 2: just to eventually crack sign them both and then they
Speaker 2: end up playing in football for the Bengals. So I
Speaker 2: don't think I think this is a non starter. I
Speaker 2: think they're gonna end up playing and I think the
Speaker 2: Bengals are gonna be slightly better. But who cares?
Speaker 1: All right, Cleveland, Joe Flacco returns, Shdors Sanders gets drafted.
Speaker 1: Uh was not the only rookie got drafted there, but
Speaker 1: I don't even know if we need to talk about him.
Speaker 1: Quinn John Judkins also drafted. I don't know, Uh, Terrell,
Speaker 1: it's gotta be tough to the Browns fan base has
Speaker 1: been through it. They've just been through it, and I'd
Speaker 1: love to tell them it's gonna get better this year.
Speaker 1: Maybe if Shador Sanders plays well at some point and
Speaker 1: gets the opportunity to play, things could be getting better
Speaker 1: on the horizon. But that's a big ifs and coulds
Speaker 1: and all that kind of stuff.
Speaker 2: I feel bad for the guy that has the jersey
Speaker 2: that has all the QB names on the back because
Speaker 2: that started for the Browns, because he's gonna have to
Speaker 2: add four more names by the time.
Speaker 1: Gabriel in there. Yea, yeah, well Flacco on again, Flacco
Speaker 1: and all fairness has already been there. Well that's it's
Speaker 1: only okay.
Speaker 2: So so he only got three more names, So okay,
Speaker 2: so it's not as bad as I thought. But I mean,
Speaker 2: all three of those guys are gonna end up playing
Speaker 2: snaps for some reason. I have no idea why they
Speaker 2: drafted Dylan Gabriel. I don't know why they are playing
Speaker 2: with Shador Sanders' name, Like, I think he's really really
Speaker 2: good quarterback for Kevin Stefantasy's system of getting the ball
Speaker 2: out quickly and hey, lean on the run game. We
Speaker 2: don't have to ask too much of this guy, and
Speaker 2: you'll be able to grow in the position. And I mean,
Speaker 2: it just seems like this is another carryover year for
Speaker 2: the Browns of we don't know what we're doing, so
Speaker 2: we're just gonna take another year figure it out. Be okay,
Speaker 2: maybe we win a couple of games, maybe we don't.
Speaker 2: Like this Brown team is completely unseerious, Like they're completely
Speaker 2: unserious with quarterback position. And I'm just waiting for the
Speaker 2: day that Stefanski swallows every out sopriet he has and
Speaker 2: says Shador Sanders, you're the starting quarterback because you give
Speaker 2: us the best chance to win games.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And it feels like Eric said that's probably gonna
Speaker 1: happen at some point. I'm just you know, I don't
Speaker 1: think if it's a mind reader here to figure that out. Uh,
Speaker 1: But what's your take on the Cleveland Browns? So this
Speaker 1: quarterbacks and earraw how it is going to impact them
Speaker 1: this season before we start looking at win totals, And
Speaker 1: I want to say the futures for them, because I
Speaker 1: don't think there's much of a future for them in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five making the playoffs. But I mean, let's
Speaker 1: talk about, you know, just did they become a more
Speaker 1: competitive team potentially on the horizon Wi should or Sanders
Speaker 1: or is it just like the rookie learning lumps kind
Speaker 1: of situation.
Speaker 3: I think that will be more competitive in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 3: You look at Stefanski what he's done with the brown
Speaker 3: since he arrived there as the head coach. This team
Speaker 3: has won a lot of games. Now, the bottom really
Speaker 3: fell out last year, but they're over the Deshaun Watson.
Speaker 3: It's over, like that era has finally ended. They're ready
Speaker 3: to move on. So they don't have to take the questions,
Speaker 3: is Deshaun Watson gonna be the quarterback anymore? We're gonna
Speaker 3: because they were purposely playing him even though he was
Speaker 3: the worst quarterback, because the ownership was saying, you know,
Speaker 3: you got to play Deshaun Watson. Well that's no longer
Speaker 3: the case now, so Stefanski is in a position to, oh,
Speaker 3: I can actually play the best quarterback. And I think
Speaker 3: when it's all said and done, we're going to see
Speaker 3: Shirar Sanders suit up as the QB one for the
Speaker 3: Cleveland Browns. And again, this was guy wants viewed as
Speaker 3: a top five quarterback this past year's draft, and I
Speaker 3: fell to the fifth round for maybe not all on
Speaker 3: field reasons. So I think that the Browns are going
Speaker 3: to be better, and they were last year thick. Their
Speaker 3: defense is still really good. They're also really injured last season,
Speaker 3: so if they have better injury luck, they have some
Speaker 3: good skill players. And I do like the Tommy Reese promotion.
Speaker 3: So he was the tight ended pass game coach last season.
Speaker 3: He's the new offensive coordinator, and he was in the
Speaker 3: college ranks the offensive corner for Notre Dame. And we
Speaker 3: saw Michael Mayer get used in a lot of really
Speaker 3: unique ways during his time there. That's why he was
Speaker 3: viewed as a top end tight end prospect coming out.
Speaker 3: So I think that we're going to see a lot
Speaker 3: of David and Joku in this offense as the vocal point.
Speaker 1: Last time good Yeah, well the last time and Joku
Speaker 1: was good, it was Flacco, so that's also you know,
Speaker 1: so maybe started looking at some of those in Djoku
Speaker 1: season props for yardage, maybe take some of the overs there.
Speaker 1: That could be a way to approach it. Last but
Speaker 1: certainly not least the Baltimore Ravens, which looked to be
Speaker 1: again in the class of this division, maybe the class
Speaker 1: of the AFC two. I love the draft pick of
Speaker 1: Malachi Starks Erickson. I think it was a deficit for
Speaker 1: them last year. I mean, this is what they do
Speaker 1: every year, right, they said the end of every draft,
Speaker 1: in the round and they take the best player available
Speaker 1: and they get better every year. They've got Lamar, They've
Speaker 1: got Continuity, they got Derrick Henry signed to an extension.
Speaker 1: I wish there was a little bit more in terms
Speaker 1: of some of the receiver talent. But Andrews, despite a
Speaker 1: really rocky opening to the season, was a touchdown machine
Speaker 1: in the second half of it. So it feels like
Speaker 1: the Ravens are kind of poisoned. And from there we're
Speaker 1: going to start to look at win totals. Before we
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Speaker 1: say that. Let's go to the Ravens win total here
Speaker 1: you got nine and a half at minus three twenty
Speaker 1: on the over under nine and a half plus two sixty.
Speaker 1: Really the sweet spot here is the eleven and a half.
Speaker 1: You get thirteen and a half at some other books
Speaker 1: too here where you're looking, but eleven and a half.
Speaker 1: Let's sit with that one minus one ten over or under, Terrell,
Speaker 1: I'm taking the over here on the eleven and a half,
Speaker 1: I feel really good about pushing it to thirteen and
Speaker 1: a half. I think is just pushing it just a
Speaker 1: little bit beyond where I want to. If you want
Speaker 1: to go to twelve and a half and get that too,
Speaker 1: but to me, the eleven and a half at minus
Speaker 1: one ten, you lock that in and barring a capis
Speaker 1: traffic injury here with Lamar Jackson, I think the Ravens
Speaker 1: get this easily. What do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah? And I mean it's gonna be a lot easier
Speaker 2: with the news that just dropped while we're recording right
Speaker 2: now of Jirelans, Alexander has signed with the Ravens, so
Speaker 2: they keep him in a year six dollar deal. Breaking news.
Speaker 1: Not what he was though t but right, I don't agree, right,
Speaker 1: not what he was, but hey, when you're in a
Speaker 1: situation that is not working out anymore, and sometimes you
Speaker 1: need to change the scenery to kind of wake things
Speaker 1: up and get things going again. So you could say
Speaker 1: he doesn't look like himself anymore, but he could come
Speaker 1: over here to Baltimore.
Speaker 2: And look exactly like who he was. But the end
Speaker 2: of the day is Alexander's a really good corner and
Speaker 2: they needed help in that secondary, and so I think
Speaker 2: this is a good spot for the raven I'm with you.
Speaker 2: I like over eleven and a half. I think that
Speaker 2: it is only injury. They have to have injuries across
Speaker 2: the ball here that just makes it so that they
Speaker 2: don't get to this total. But anything else, I like
Speaker 2: the run game still, I like the offense still. The
Speaker 2: only question that I have for the Ravens is how
Speaker 2: far can they make it in the playoffs because John
Speaker 2: Harball is going to have to coach this team at
Speaker 2: some point. He can't just lean on Lamar Jackson and
Speaker 2: lean on this team being good to be able to
Speaker 2: get to a championship. So it's not the wins total
Speaker 2: where I'm questioning the Ravens. It's what do they do
Speaker 2: when they get into the playoffs. Can he coach this
Speaker 2: team to get back to the mountaintop, because it seems
Speaker 2: like that's the issue right here.
Speaker 1: I think it can spoil alert more on that at
Speaker 1: the end of the show, ericson Ravens win total, where's
Speaker 1: your happy place?
Speaker 3: I Am going to the under under eleven and a
Speaker 3: half wins and so always guys. You guys kind of
Speaker 3: previewed it talking about, well, only of injuries happen, it's
Speaker 3: only injuries happened. Will the Ravens not get to twelve wins?
Speaker 3: And I think injuries are going to hit this team
Speaker 3: because last year they were the healthiest team in the NFL.
Speaker 3: We were talking about this with the forty nine ers
Speaker 3: in twenty twenty four. Fe the forty nine ers, they're
Speaker 3: so healthy. What happened, Joe? We all know what happened
Speaker 3: to the forty nine ers.
Speaker 1: I know, you know.
Speaker 2: Say it fell apart.
Speaker 1: I was I was such, you know, in a good
Speaker 1: mood coming into this first big NFL show of the
Speaker 1: year for us, and the Undertaker did not take long
Speaker 1: to rise from the I'm.
Speaker 3: Just I'm just spitting out the facts. Just the process
Speaker 3: it says that suggests you can't chase the team that
Speaker 3: was the healthiest depressing team, and given the fact that
Speaker 3: it's such a big number anyway, eleven and a half.
Speaker 3: I when I was doing projections, going through game by
Speaker 3: game every single game in the NFL season, I had
Speaker 3: them projected for eleven wins. So I think the number
Speaker 3: is right at eleven and a half. But just making
Speaker 3: the best bet against health repeating, I think that's the
Speaker 3: way I'm gonna go.
Speaker 1: All right. If you're going that route, then we'll get
Speaker 1: to the Bengals win total, which you can get at
Speaker 1: seven and a half, nine and a half, eleven and
Speaker 1: a half. I have a feeling like, if you think
Speaker 1: that the Ravers are going in one direct, that you
Speaker 1: think the Bengals might be going in another. Is that true.
Speaker 1: I'm in the over on the nine and a half
Speaker 1: wins of them at minus one twenty. That's where I
Speaker 1: want to be. But maybe you're pushing the eleven and
Speaker 1: a half where you get plus two to fifty. Is
Speaker 1: that where you're going ericson? Is that where you're leading me?
Speaker 3: Yes, I would take the over on the eleven and
Speaker 3: a half. I think the best bet is over nine
Speaker 3: and a half, just because at minus one twenty. I
Speaker 3: think that's the safest you look at Burrow, what he's
Speaker 3: shun three healthy seasons, averaging ten and a half wins
Speaker 3: per year. And Zach Taylor has already talked about with
Speaker 3: the Bengals, guys, we're not going to start slow this year,
Speaker 3: like he's going to play his players in the preseason
Speaker 3: like he hasn't done before because they're so sick of
Speaker 3: starting every September oh and three looks like.
Speaker 1: So I think they're going to.
Speaker 3: Start with Patriots last year exactly, like they need to
Speaker 3: avoid that. And I know everyone's going to be terrified
Speaker 3: in their survivor pools Bengals app rounds. Everyone's gonna be
Speaker 3: scared to take the Bengals because everyone knows they start
Speaker 3: out really bad and it's a divisional game on the road.
Speaker 3: Maybe they'll still lose, but I'm a little bit more
Speaker 3: confident that they will win. And just based on burrow
Speaker 3: sixty two percent career win rate over the last four seasons,
Speaker 3: again that's up to ten and a half wins. And
Speaker 3: talking about the projections, when I went through every game,
Speaker 3: just based on the matchups, I thought the Bengals could
Speaker 3: win thirteen games. So I'm going to take the over
Speaker 3: over over over.
Speaker 1: All, right, Terrell, I like the over the little bit
Speaker 1: of a smaller number. I just want to again that
Speaker 1: defense does scare me a little bit. I think they're
Speaker 1: a ten win team. Do I think they're twelve win team? Maybe?
Speaker 1: Because I do think they can just flat out out
Speaker 1: score some teams the way they're currently constructed, and if
Speaker 1: they don't get off to a terrible start from once,
Speaker 1: maybe that can also go that route. But where do
Speaker 1: you want to land on this win total here it
Speaker 1: comes to the Bengals, Trell.
Speaker 2: I like the over. I do. I think that the
Speaker 2: Bengals are going to be able to get this done.
Speaker 2: The only real issue that I have with the Bengals
Speaker 2: is the defense. And it's crazy because the defense was
Speaker 2: so bad that I think that they're going to be better.
Speaker 2: And if they're going to be better, Joe Burrow is
Speaker 2: probably going to go out there and try to put
Speaker 2: up thirty points the game every single night. So make
Speaker 2: sure that they're at least in this game. Days the
Speaker 2: defense may bottom out, other days the defense might be
Speaker 2: respectable and they are able to get the win. I
Speaker 2: think that more often than not, they're gonna be able
Speaker 2: to get the win in those situations. And I mean,
Speaker 2: I already see the script for how this season's going.
Speaker 2: The Bengals just have to have one really solid season
Speaker 2: if they so happen to win the division as well.
Speaker 2: I mean, they're they're giving away MVPs like participation trophies apparently,
Speaker 2: So it just looks like that everything is aligning for
Speaker 2: this to be the Joe Burrow MVP season because they're
Speaker 2: ready to just give everybody MVPs. You haven't had one
Speaker 2: MVP yet, Here you go, Josh. You haven't won MVP yet, Joe.
Speaker 2: Here you go, Joe. And so if they're gonna do that,
Speaker 2: I'm going to make sure that I bet on the
Speaker 2: same side as that. I think the reps are gonna
Speaker 2: be in the pockets too. I like Bengals to go over.
Speaker 2: And I do like the Bengals for this season because again,
Speaker 2: they're giving away MVPs for free, so I think they're
Speaker 2: gonna make things happen so that Joe Burrow can get
Speaker 2: his MVP. Finally.
Speaker 1: Oh god, I missed this Cleveland brow In totals, there
Speaker 1: we go three and a half, five and a half,
Speaker 1: seven and a half that's where the board is around here.
Speaker 1: This one has variance in it, Torell, so typically I'm
Speaker 1: not one that loves to approach it. I think the
Speaker 1: under on the five and a half is actually kind
Speaker 1: of maybe the best position to be in. However, I
Speaker 1: don't like the Jews at minus one fifty, so to me,
Speaker 1: it's just to stay away. Over at plus one twenty
Speaker 1: five is tempting, but I feel like it's going to
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be sweating this out at the end of
Speaker 1: the year for them to get to six wins personally,
Speaker 1: so I just don't want to do it. So to me,
Speaker 1: staying away from the Browns. Too much volatility, too many questions,
Speaker 1: too many quarterbacks, just too much where do you go?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't want anything to do with them because
Speaker 2: they're not going to play George Sanders and that's the
Speaker 2: best quarterback on the roster right now. And I feel
Speaker 2: fairly strongly in saying that I think Joe, not Joe Burrow,
Speaker 2: Joe Flacca, all these Joe's, Joe, Joe, Joe, can you like,
Speaker 2: can we work taking home talk about this? There's a
Speaker 2: lot of Joe's, Like there are you know, average Joe,
Speaker 2: Uh the Citadel of Joe. Yeah, the Citadel of Joe's
Speaker 2: and that's just ridiculous. Year, Like, I can't I've been
Speaker 2: doing this too long, and I'm saying Joe Jo Jo, Jojo.
Speaker 2: Either way, Joe Flacco is the one that I'm talking
Speaker 2: about this time. And Joe Flacco two years ago got
Speaker 2: the Browns to a playoffs. But in those two years,
Speaker 2: Joe Flacco has looked horrible since he did not look
Speaker 2: good last year for the Colts. And so I don't
Speaker 2: think Joe Flacco is himself. I think he's a show
Speaker 2: of himself and at some point they're gonna get fed
Speaker 2: up with it, and then they're gonna go through the
Speaker 2: Kenny Pickett saga and they're gonna realize, Yeah, Knny Pickett
Speaker 2: isn't this guy. They're gonna go through the Dylan Gabriel saga.
Speaker 2: They're like, yeah, he's not this guy. Like it's so
Speaker 2: clear that it's gonna be Shdor Sanders and that he's
Speaker 2: a quarterback for the system. But they're not gonna get
Speaker 2: there until the end of the year, and it's gonna
Speaker 2: be too late for the win total at that point.
Speaker 2: So just I'll wait, I'll wait for an end season
Speaker 2: wins total. If they get some type of brains about
Speaker 2: them and bring him on halfway through the year, then
Speaker 2: maybe I'll be interested. But as of now, is under.
Speaker 1: Over under three and a half games. Should Sanders starts
Speaker 1: for the Browns this year, it starts ericson.
Speaker 3: I'll take you over on three and a half games.
Speaker 2: Okay, Oh, you give the Browns so much credit.
Speaker 3: They're not Why would probably get to pick who plays
Speaker 3: quarterback this time? He doesn't have to play.
Speaker 2: So let's talk about that, because I let that slot
Speaker 2: the first time you said it. Man, I just let's
Speaker 2: just go ahead, because if nobody has said anything about
Speaker 2: Deshaun Watson not playing this year, I don't think anybody
Speaker 2: has said anything.
Speaker 1: He's not going to play this year.
Speaker 2: Again, is December under Overhawn Watson three and a half
Speaker 2: games played for the Browns. Under about gas or Sanders
Speaker 2: as a starter.
Speaker 1: I don't think Deshaun Watson steps foot in that locker
Speaker 1: room all year. I think it's done.
Speaker 2: I think if if that's true, then I would one hundred.
Speaker 2: I would probably be on and over because then that
Speaker 2: would mean Sanders would get there more. But I don't
Speaker 2: trust the Browns. I think just Sean Watson is walking
Speaker 2: through that door at some point, I really really do,
Speaker 2: and it's gonna be I think he's.
Speaker 3: Walking, he can try to get in.
Speaker 1: I don't think they give a chase the Jamal Adams
Speaker 1: remember that whe the guy kept trying to get in
Speaker 1: the door. He's like, damn, why is I guess they
Speaker 1: cut me? So ericson speaking of overs and under the
Speaker 1: Browns win total, is there a happy place for you
Speaker 1: with it, because there isn't one for me.
Speaker 3: Well, I I like the value over five and a
Speaker 3: half plus one twenty five. Stefanski doesn't get enough credit.
Speaker 3: Look again, last year it totally bottomed out.
Speaker 1: It was terrible.
Speaker 3: But before last year he had never averaged fewer than
Speaker 3: seven wins. Averaged nine wins per year before twenty twenty four.
Speaker 3: And that's playing in the AFC North, one of the
Speaker 3: most highly competitive divisions in the AFC. So I think Stefanski, yes,
Speaker 3: he has four quarterbacks to work with, but I think
Speaker 3: he can get a couple wins here with this guy,
Speaker 3: a couple wins here with this guy, and I think
Speaker 3: that the defense is going to be really good. They
Speaker 3: got hit by a lot of injuries last year on
Speaker 3: both sides of the football. So talking about fading the
Speaker 3: Ravens because of negative injury regression, I think the Browns
Speaker 3: will be healthier on both offense and defense. I think
Speaker 3: that's gonna benefit them getting small wins. I just think
Speaker 3: five and a half it's a really low number. And again,
Speaker 3: if they do turn to Shadar at the end of
Speaker 3: the year, well maybe that gives them a little bit
Speaker 3: of a boost. Again, it seems like whenever the quarterback
Speaker 3: play starts to go down, well they always have another
Speaker 3: guy to go to be like all right, like this
Speaker 3: guy's gonna lift the team this time. So I think
Speaker 3: maybe they'll get enough what is it the dead cat
Speaker 3: bounces from changing through all of these quarterbacks, and I
Speaker 3: think they can work out.
Speaker 2: What I will say about Sador is he gets better
Speaker 2: with time. And so I never thought Shador's rookie year
Speaker 2: would be like the big breakout year where you see
Speaker 2: it instantly, but as like the next year, the next year,
Speaker 2: as they could sinue to work with him, I think
Speaker 2: he's going to be really good man, and I.
Speaker 1: Think it could be a serviceable NFL uarterback at base Yeah, dude.
Speaker 2: Like it way better than what he was drafted at.
Speaker 2: I think that that was the statement that they that
Speaker 2: they were trying to make way better than what he
Speaker 2: was drafted at. And so my only question here is
Speaker 2: are they gonna do it like cause you sent them.
Speaker 2: You sent the message already with the draft position. So
Speaker 2: are is that it? It's overwashed? We all by gods,
Speaker 2: by guys, let's evaluate the quarterback position for the quarterback position,
Speaker 2: because it shouldn't be long until we see him hit
Speaker 2: the field if we're being honest, but if they are
Speaker 2: very stuck in their head, as it seems, they don't
Speaker 2: want to talk about Shador, he hasn't been practicing with
Speaker 2: the ones any of Like you're literally you have a
Speaker 2: Lamborghini in the garage and it's just sitting there and
Speaker 2: you're driving this Toyota Camri around that's falling apart on
Speaker 2: two legs because you're like, oh, I know, for a
Speaker 2: fat it can get me from A to B. Yes
Speaker 2: it can, but it's gonna take you forever to get there.
Speaker 1: No Lamborghini, she's Alexis at best. At best, he's a Lexis.
Speaker 1: I'm just saying maybe even an Audi. He is not
Speaker 1: a Lamborghini was a Lamborghini. Well, that's fine, good quick.
Speaker 1: My own money is sweet. I'm so waiting for myl But.
Speaker 2: Joe Flacco, he's the best Lamborghini out there.
Speaker 1: Well, that's different. Joe Flacco is more of a I
Speaker 1: don't know, he's more of like whatever, some sort of
Speaker 1: Toyota minivan I think. But the doors open with a
Speaker 1: one click the Siena, that's what it is. It takes
Speaker 1: all the kids to practice. Pittsburgh Steelers win total six
Speaker 1: and a half, eight and a half, ten and a half.
Speaker 1: That's kind of what you have on the board. This
Speaker 1: one for me. I gotta tell you Ericson I feel
Speaker 1: like when it comes to the Pittsburgh Steelers, I look
Speaker 1: at the schedule, in the fact that they have to
Speaker 1: play the Ravens twice, play the India Division twice with
Speaker 1: the Bengals, I don't know how they're going to do
Speaker 1: in those games, honestly. I look in the fact they
Speaker 1: have to play the NFC North this year. Those are
Speaker 1: some tougher teams. I think they're gonna struggle there, I
Speaker 1: really do. I actually like the under eight and a half.
Speaker 1: Just sitting at eight wins at minus one thirty. I
Speaker 1: think that's the personally my comfort zone. Where's yours When
Speaker 1: it comes to the steel.
Speaker 3: Total, Yeah, I had them slightly leaned towards the under,
Speaker 3: but this would probably be a shy away because it's
Speaker 3: just gonna go down. It's gonna go down to week
Speaker 3: to eighteen, and I just like don't feel like sweating
Speaker 3: the season long bet for the Steelers because I think
Speaker 3: when it's all said done, it's going to be right
Speaker 3: around that eight to nine mark. So I think the
Speaker 3: eight and a half line is sharp. I do think
Speaker 3: that maybe this is a better live opportunity where their
Speaker 3: schedule gets really like last year, we talked about it preseason.
Speaker 3: The opening schedule they have like no divisional games, this
Speaker 3: is gonna be a cakewalk, and it was a cakewalk,
Speaker 3: and then they've played the second half of the season
Speaker 3: and it was, oh, this is a lot harder. The
Speaker 3: Steelers aren't really as good as we thought.
Speaker 1: They were.
Speaker 3: Similar this year after Week eleven for their six divisional
Speaker 3: games down the stretch, they had to play both games
Speaker 3: against the Ravens after Week eleven, whereas the start of
Speaker 3: the season, they have a lot of more favorable matchups.
Speaker 3: Even though they're playing games on the road. So I
Speaker 3: think that if you're looking to buy onto this year
Speaker 3: is you probably want to buy them early where they're
Speaker 3: gonna win some games out of the gates. But I
Speaker 3: think they're going to fade down the stretch like we
Speaker 3: saw last year.
Speaker 1: Terrell got with the Steelers win total. I can only
Speaker 1: assume it's over twelve and a half for you or something, right.
Speaker 2: I mean, I only need nine wins to get a
Speaker 2: winning record. Here. We talk about this. We talk about
Speaker 2: this every year. We talked about it last year, and
Speaker 2: it wasn't a lot of optimism with the Justin Fields
Speaker 2: and the Russell Wilson thing, and they won ten games.
Speaker 1: I disagree. Excuse me. I had nobody had more optimism
Speaker 1: about Justin Fields than this guy right here, and I
Speaker 1: was right. They were four and two and then they
Speaker 1: made a stupid decision.
Speaker 2: But I just want to six more games that they
Speaker 2: needed to get over this win total. So regardless of
Speaker 2: how you felt or in either quarterback and whether you
Speaker 2: liked one didn't like the other, a lot of people
Speaker 2: felt like that we had subpar quarterback play and they
Speaker 2: still won ten games. TJ. Watt that is the person
Speaker 2: that matters here. If TJ. Watt plays games for the Steelers,
Speaker 2: they win games. I don't care about the quarterback position.
Speaker 2: I've never cared about the quarterback position with the Steelers.
Speaker 2: If TJ. Watt plays games for them, they win games,
Speaker 2: especially as a dog. And so yeah, I think think
Speaker 2: that this is another spot where Tomlin just gets enough
Speaker 2: out of the offense, gets what he needs out of
Speaker 2: the offense. They had the what the schedule releases and
Speaker 2: who was it the Chargers that had the Steelers, and
Speaker 2: what their game plan is every single year it's oh, rebuild,
Speaker 2: oh go for the championship, and it all leads to
Speaker 2: the same thing, a subpar winning season. And that's what
Speaker 2: they always do when I'm getting plus money for it.
Speaker 2: So yes, give me over eight and a half wins.
Speaker 2: He get it.
Speaker 1: Do one more win, one more win here or there.
Speaker 1: You know, Mike Tomlin becomes the Jeff Fisher who was
Speaker 1: always seven and nine. Remember, it's like, you know, just win,
Speaker 1: win two more games a year. You're Mike Tomlin and
Speaker 1: you're a coach forever. You lose two more games a
Speaker 1: year than you're supposed to, you're Jeff Fisher. Out of
Speaker 1: the NFL after seven and nine every year, all right,
Speaker 1: division winner futures. Here we go the Ravens at minus
Speaker 1: one forty to win the North in the AFC, the
Speaker 1: Bengals plus two twenty, the Steelers plus five hundred, and
Speaker 1: forget the Cleveland Browns and plus thirty two hundred. So, Terrell,
Speaker 1: where do you want to go here? I think the
Speaker 1: Ravens at minus one forty, you're still a pretty good
Speaker 1: investment on this board. With the US, I don't think
Speaker 1: it's too heavy for me to go through. What do
Speaker 1: you think? Hmmm?
Speaker 2: Yeah, but the better values in the Bengals. Wow, it's
Speaker 2: between the Bengals and the Ravens, and I just think
Speaker 2: that it should be a lot closer than getting you know,
Speaker 2: plus two thirty or whatever it is with the Banks.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's close because of the defense ericson.
Speaker 1: That's where I come. I think the Ravens defensively are
Speaker 1: just superior team and they can hang with the Bengals.
Speaker 2: Offense is so like the ceiling for the Bengals.
Speaker 1: They always have these shootouts with the Bengals every year
Speaker 1: where these totals go to sixty seventy points. So it's
Speaker 1: not like they're not going to show up offensive.
Speaker 2: And last year they lost a lot of those shootouts,
Speaker 2: and so regression. Yeah, and so regressions to the meetings
Speaker 2: to the means, I think they're gonna win them.
Speaker 3: Bet the Ravens is just a bet on regression. Man,
Speaker 3: They're gonna regress. So I'm with the Bengals too. I
Speaker 3: think that their offense is just to offense wins divisions.
Speaker 3: They don't win championships, but they can win divisions. So
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with the this is Bengals.
Speaker 2: If the Bengals are thirteen wins and the Ravens have
Speaker 2: twelve wins and it was just because the Bengals got
Speaker 2: one extra win over them in the division, I wo'n't
Speaker 2: be surprised. Like I wouldn't be surprised.
Speaker 3: I would also say, we always just want to say
Speaker 3: one last thing so that we won. The Ravens play
Speaker 3: the Bills in Buffalo. Yeah, so what do you think
Speaker 3: these lines look like? The Bengals beat up on the
Speaker 3: Browns Week one, the Ravens lose to Buffalo. Who's the
Speaker 3: favorite to win the division after one week?
Speaker 1: Oh? I agree. I think if you want the Ravens,
Speaker 1: you wait a week. I think that's a very astute
Speaker 1: observation there, when you're looking at the schedule. Are we
Speaker 1: just here? The flip side is that if they beat
Speaker 1: the Bills, it's more like, Sayonara, it goes.
Speaker 2: I was about to say, what, we're assuming that the
Speaker 2: Bills and winning that game.
Speaker 1: I mean it's more likely. Maybe I'm not the Browns.
Speaker 1: I'm not assuming it, but I mean that's the that's
Speaker 1: the gamble.
Speaker 2: You take a gambling show.
Speaker 1: This is a gambling show. So yeah, I think they
Speaker 1: want to take that gamble. It's there for you. Week one. Ravens, uh,
Speaker 1: and you're looking at them, I'm looking at them as
Speaker 1: my favorite bet here as we get to our last
Speaker 1: segment here, my favorite bet is to go on in
Speaker 1: on the Ravens. I know ericson scare me a little
Speaker 1: bit with the health, I get it, but you know what,
Speaker 1: I just think the continuity of this team is there.
Speaker 1: Forget the Chiefs this year, that's done. I don't think
Speaker 1: the Chargers are quite ready yet. I think this is
Speaker 1: the perfect time and the Bills are the Bills. The
Speaker 1: Bills always find a way to lose the big games
Speaker 1: because the Bills stop doing this to yourself, everybody. So
Speaker 1: the Ravens, this is your year, this year, opportunity. The
Speaker 1: one thing that can stop them. The phone call is
Speaker 1: coming from inside the house and it is the Bengals
Speaker 1: for sure, and that does scare me the most. But
Speaker 1: at the same time, I'm gonna look at the Ravens.
Speaker 1: To win the AFC A plus three forty and to
Speaker 1: go to the Super Bowl and win plus seven hundred,
Speaker 1: some pretty good numbers on a team that has a
Speaker 1: lot of good continuity, can run the football, can play defense.
Speaker 1: I think this might be the year of the Baltimore
Speaker 1: Ravens to get there and win the Super Bowl. All right, Ericson,
Speaker 1: give me your favorite bet here when it comes to
Speaker 1: the AFC North.
Speaker 3: My best bet, I'm going to go with the CINCINNTI
Speaker 3: Bengals over nine and a half wins. I think the
Speaker 3: offense is just too good. You want you want my
Speaker 3: wildcar bet too? We're doing those, yeah one at all.
Speaker 1: Right, let's go, let's do it.
Speaker 3: My wildcard bet is Joe Burrow MVP plus six point fifty.
Speaker 3: I was on this last year and the numbers were there,
Speaker 3: it's just the wins. The wins were not there for
Speaker 3: Joe Burrow. But the fact that I was still able
Speaker 3: to cash out of a ticket that was totally dead
Speaker 3: just gives me a reason to believe that voters want
Speaker 3: Joe Burrow to win MVP at some point. And we
Speaker 3: saw last year, we saw some of the trends break.
Speaker 3: Mahomes had the AFC number one seed, didn't win MVP.
Speaker 3: You had Josh Allen a MVP despite Lamar Jackson having
Speaker 3: I think better counting stats overall.
Speaker 2: So first tag, if it's.
Speaker 3: A narrative driven award, then I think the voters might
Speaker 3: decide after November December when Joe Burrow plays Baltimore, Buffalo, Baltimore.
Speaker 3: The Bengals win all those games. Okay, let's make Joe
Speaker 3: Burrow our MVP. So I think the narrative is there
Speaker 3: for him to win it, and I like the odds
Speaker 3: at plus six to fifty.
Speaker 1: I believe in Joe Burrow. I believe in Joe Hendry.
Speaker 1: Just to add another Joe into this mix for Torell
Speaker 1: to confuse him. Terrell, give us your favorite bets and
Speaker 1: your wild card here for the AFC.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Joe Testar is gonna win MVP as well. Oh, wait,
Speaker 2: I mean Joe Burrow. I think as well, it's a
Speaker 2: lot of Joe's man. You get you get confused, and
Speaker 2: you just be throwing Joe out come back. But yeah,
Speaker 2: I think that last year showed me that the MVP
Speaker 2: is a participation trophy. And so yeah, now now it's
Speaker 2: it's Joe Burrow's turn to go ahead and get one.
Speaker 2: So that makes me concerned about the Ravens that there
Speaker 2: could be some debakery there and maybe this is the
Speaker 2: Bengals year. So I'm just gonna go with the easy
Speaker 2: bet that's on the board. I don't know why, you guys,
Speaker 2: over eight and a half wins for the Steelers. It
Speaker 2: cashes every single time. Every time it cashes, it does,
Speaker 2: and it's plus money every time. Because everybody talks themselves
Speaker 2: into all these different narratives of how the Steelers are
Speaker 2: not going to have a winning record when Mike Tomlin
Speaker 2: is just a good coach and they still have TJ. Watt.
Speaker 2: If TJ. Watt gets hurt, then okay, I'll backtrack and
Speaker 2: I'll be like, you know what, all right, the Steelers
Speaker 2: might I got it this year, but CJ. Watt's still
Speaker 2: playing there, and he played a lot of games last year.
Speaker 1: Well, he's holding out tea contract, he's not actually there,
Speaker 1: he pays.
Speaker 2: Let's just go ahead of stamp in this. Now he's
Speaker 2: gonna have a contract and he's gonna be playing before
Speaker 2: the year.
Speaker 1: What happens to the guys when they hold out? To you,
Speaker 1: He's gonna have a holdout, They miss camp, they have
Speaker 1: the soft tissue injuries, next thing, you know, it's a
Speaker 1: it's a toughy. I'm just saying that is a very
Speaker 1: common has been through holdouts.
Speaker 2: He's been through Duck Hodges. And I bring that up
Speaker 2: because Duck Hodges was a really, really bad quarterback. Everyone's
Speaker 2: been shree Jones. He's been through all of these situations
Speaker 2: and he wintle comes out on the top every single time.
Speaker 1: Winter comes for us. All, all right, it's gonna happen
Speaker 1: to him.
Speaker 2: I am swimming through the winner in a boatload of
Speaker 2: cash of all the scalers wins totals from every single year.
Speaker 2: So you know what, I'll be cool if it doesn't
Speaker 2: cash one year, but still taking it plus money.
Speaker 1: And I'm worse. And you get the narrative, Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 1: being the one who blows it. Look I'd love to
Speaker 1: hear from you. What do you think? What are your predictions?
Speaker 1: Drop them below in the comments here and subscribe to
Speaker 1: YouTube channel because I want to know what you think
Speaker 1: about the AFC North and what your favorite bets are.
Speaker 1: You think Terrell's right on the Steelers wrong on the Steelers.
Speaker 1: Let us know here and don't forget to download the
Speaker 1: Betting Pros app as well Sinker sportsbooks for free and
Speaker 1: track your bets while you're doing it, because now is
Speaker 1: the time to get ready for the NFL season. That'll
Speaker 1: do it for us, But the story of the game
Speaker 1: goes on for the Undertaker, Andrew Erickson and big money
Speaker 1: Terrell Furman Junior. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids,
Speaker 1: get all your jos in a row.
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