1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast 5 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,480 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Markets are clearly being 7 00:00:22,600 --> 00:00:25,880 Speaker 1: driven by the geopolitical issues coming out of Ukraine, but 8 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 1: there was a lot of eco data this morning on 9 00:00:29,400 --> 00:00:31,960 Speaker 1: primarily on the labor fronts. Pretty good numbers two in 10 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 1: terms of nonfarm payrolls coming in better than expect that. 11 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:37,240 Speaker 1: Let's break it all down with Sarah House, senior economist 12 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:40,240 Speaker 1: at Wells Fargo Securities. Sarah, thanks so much for taking 13 00:00:40,240 --> 00:00:42,959 Speaker 1: the time to join uh US. What did you make 14 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 1: of the labor data this morning? Overall, this was a 15 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:50,160 Speaker 1: really strong report. So obviously we had much stronger growth 16 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:53,560 Speaker 1: in terms of parel numbers and broad based across sectors. 17 00:00:53,920 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: We also had an increase in the work week, and 18 00:00:56,560 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 1: so I think that points to growth here in the 19 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:02,840 Speaker 1: first quarter certainly being stronger than what was generally expected. 20 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:07,279 Speaker 1: And I think one thing we saw was that stood 21 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:10,520 Speaker 1: out was that flat reading an average early earnings. And 22 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 1: so this coincides with some moderation we've seen in the 23 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:16,320 Speaker 1: e C I, some of the moderation we've seen in 24 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,480 Speaker 1: things like the Small Business Survey compensation Plan. So I 25 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:22,800 Speaker 1: think in some ways that that's good for the overall 26 00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:26,760 Speaker 1: inflation outlook and therefore the overall growth outlook. Considering that 27 00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:30,520 Speaker 1: it suggests that wage growth isn't isn't running away and 28 00:01:30,560 --> 00:01:33,560 Speaker 1: taking inflation with it? Is it a good thing? I mean, 29 00:01:33,600 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 1: this is what I was wondering as I was looking 30 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 1: through the numbers. Wages kind of have to go up 31 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:42,200 Speaker 1: pretty quickly for people to maintain pace with the with 32 00:01:42,240 --> 00:01:45,120 Speaker 1: the increased inflation and with the oil and commodity shock 33 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:50,640 Speaker 1: more generally. Doesn't this just reduce purchasing power? Essentially? It 34 00:01:50,760 --> 00:01:52,880 Speaker 1: does in the short term, But I think in terms 35 00:01:53,160 --> 00:01:57,040 Speaker 1: of keeping the inflation environment somewhat reined in or at 36 00:01:57,080 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 1: least reducing the risk that it gets further out of control, 37 00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:02,880 Speaker 1: I think it's an It's an important it's an important 38 00:02:02,880 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 1: print in that matter, and I think it suggests in 39 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 1: some ways that the FED can actually be a little 40 00:02:08,040 --> 00:02:11,360 Speaker 1: less aggressive in terms of their tightening tightening plans in 41 00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 1: light of the inflationary pressures that we're seeing on the 42 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:16,920 Speaker 1: commodity front. All right, Saras, and what do you what 43 00:02:17,000 --> 00:02:19,120 Speaker 1: do you expect this photo reserve to do on the 44 00:02:19,160 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 1: back of this data set? This morning, I look at 45 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:24,520 Speaker 1: the w I R P GO function on the terminal 46 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 1: and it shows the streets thinking about six rate hikes 47 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 1: this year? Is that kind of how you're seeing it? 48 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:33,720 Speaker 1: So right now we're at five rate hikes for the year. 49 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 1: But obviously there's a lot of uncertainty and a lot 50 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:38,960 Speaker 1: of things that could change even between now and the 51 00:02:38,960 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 1: March meeting. So we're still looking for the Fed to 52 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:44,720 Speaker 1: raise twenty five basis points here at their next meeting. 53 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,000 Speaker 1: I think we saw that not only from Pal this 54 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:49,880 Speaker 1: Pal this week, but also from Evans this morning. Now, 55 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:52,560 Speaker 1: I think that's notable considering he's traditionally been one of 56 00:02:52,600 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 1: the most dubblish members on the committee. But I think 57 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 1: when you step back and you look at where the 58 00:02:57,639 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 1: labor market is, the fact that the inflation side of 59 00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 1: the mandate has been more than met that until we 60 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:06,640 Speaker 1: see more significant still over effects to to the U 61 00:03:06,720 --> 00:03:09,520 Speaker 1: S economy, the FED is in the position where they 62 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:11,800 Speaker 1: need to adjust policy, They need to to try and 63 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: get it more centered in light of that labor market 64 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:17,799 Speaker 1: and inflation back drop. Sarah, this is what I was 65 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 1: thinking about all morning. Does it really matter? I mean, yeah, 66 00:03:21,160 --> 00:03:23,639 Speaker 1: from perhaps a visual standpoint, it matters if the FED 67 00:03:23,720 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 1: hikes rates, But what's it actually going to do right now, 68 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:30,399 Speaker 1: given the disruption that you're seeing in markets, given how 69 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:34,080 Speaker 1: low yields are, even with the prospect of inflation running 70 00:03:34,080 --> 00:03:38,240 Speaker 1: at the hottest pace. Since I think you're right that 71 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 1: it is more a signaling stance at this point, and 72 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:45,640 Speaker 1: that when we look at the tightening and financial conditions, 73 00:03:45,680 --> 00:03:47,840 Speaker 1: you know, a lot of this has already been priced in, 74 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 1: but I think it also gives the FED some additional optimality. 75 00:03:51,920 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: So not much with the basis point increase, but I'll 76 00:03:55,080 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 1: sequel a little bit more. And again it goes back 77 00:03:57,760 --> 00:04:02,040 Speaker 1: to that signaling, especially at a time when inflation expectations 78 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 1: have have moved significantly higher. So even at the long end, 79 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:07,520 Speaker 1: they're up towards the top end of the range we've 80 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:10,000 Speaker 1: seen over the past decade or so, and I think 81 00:04:10,000 --> 00:04:11,840 Speaker 1: the SAD wants to make sure that they do not 82 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:13,840 Speaker 1: break out further from that and that's going to be 83 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:16,400 Speaker 1: very difficult in light of this commodity back drop, given 84 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 1: that energy prices and food prices are are some of 85 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:25,359 Speaker 1: the most influential factors in consumers inflation expectations. So, Sarah, 86 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 1: the unemployment rate, the headline number, three point eight percent, 87 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: is that the new full employment for this economy. So 88 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:36,600 Speaker 1: I think when you, I think it is consistent with 89 00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 1: a full employment. So it's below where the FED estimates 90 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 1: that is, and I think when we step back and 91 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:44,000 Speaker 1: we look at the overall wage picture, so yes, we 92 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,839 Speaker 1: saw some softness today, but obviously the trend has been 93 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,679 Speaker 1: very strong, and so that's all consistent with the labor 94 00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 1: market that's at full employment. But it's not just the 95 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 1: unemployment rate that we see that we see it in 96 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 1: things like measures against an unemployed persons versus job openings, 97 00:04:58,640 --> 00:05:02,719 Speaker 1: the overall employment popularlyation ratio among prime mage workers, and 98 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:05,839 Speaker 1: even even under employment. Although we did see the U 99 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:09,040 Speaker 1: six pick up today, Sarah, before we let you go 100 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:11,160 Speaker 1: just real quick, how much did you ratch it back 101 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:14,040 Speaker 1: your expectations for growth after seeing the events of the 102 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 1: past two weeks. So we haven't published a new forecast, 103 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:20,359 Speaker 1: but I think when you look at the sensitivity to 104 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: growth around some of the increase in in commodity prices, 105 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:27,200 Speaker 1: and we are looking at potentially somewhere around half a percent. 106 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:31,480 Speaker 1: If you saw energy and UH and food prices increase 107 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:34,640 Speaker 1: about thirty five percent. So oil prices are are past 108 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:38,159 Speaker 1: that point, but food prices haven't gotten quite there. But 109 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:40,920 Speaker 1: I think importantly with the starting point for the U. 110 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 1: S economy, there is some room to give on growth 111 00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:47,480 Speaker 1: where before it slips below trend, let alone a recession inflation, 112 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:50,320 Speaker 1: we don't have that room to give. All right, Sarah, 113 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:53,200 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us on this job today. 114 00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:57,919 Speaker 1: Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities. Here another 115 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: week day to the tape. Here at least, I think 116 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 1: again the geopolitical issues are really what's driving a lot 117 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 1: of this market. Yeah, you know, this should have been 118 00:06:06,160 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 1: payrolls Friday, and the President Biden just put out a 119 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,880 Speaker 1: statement on the job's report talking about how people are 120 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:15,239 Speaker 1: getting back to work. But right now pandemic might be ending, 121 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:18,039 Speaker 1: but the focus is elsewhere. Yeah, I guess it takes 122 00:06:18,040 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 1: a good old fashioned European work to get the pandemic 123 00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:22,360 Speaker 1: off the front pages. I mean, we just have I 124 00:06:22,360 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 1: could do without. I gotta say, yeah, I know, it's 125 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 1: it's a pick your poison, I guess in these things. 126 00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:34,480 Speaker 1: All right, let's talk a little echo stuff here and 127 00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 1: you go Eco go on. The Bloomberg terminal brings up 128 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:41,359 Speaker 1: all the salient economic data coming out of the U. S. Government. Again. 129 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:44,840 Speaker 1: The data point today was change in nonfarm payrolls came 130 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:48,559 Speaker 1: in it plus six seven six seventy eight thousand versus 131 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 1: a consensus of four hundred twenty three thousand, So a good, 132 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:54,400 Speaker 1: good beat there. We had a revised upward revised to 133 00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 1: the prior month there, so all good on the labor front. 134 00:06:56,960 --> 00:06:59,440 Speaker 1: Let's break it down with Russell Price, chief economists with 135 00:06:59,480 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 1: AMERP as a financial Russell looked like a really solid number. 136 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 1: What's your view of the US labor market these days? Yeah, Paul, 137 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:10,760 Speaker 1: you know, I think it really is very solid backdrop 138 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 1: for the job market right now. I think that's even 139 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 1: and not just in today's report, but in the reports 140 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 1: that we've seen over the last few months, and as 141 00:07:18,800 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 1: far as other um side reports that we've seen, as 142 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 1: far as the job openings and labor turnover survey. What 143 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:30,680 Speaker 1: we're the reports that we're hearing from individual companies as 144 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 1: far as is the strength of them finding it difficult 145 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 1: to find workers. Um, so it's a very strong market. 146 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:41,440 Speaker 1: But from one thing that's a very apparent parent from 147 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:44,520 Speaker 1: today's report is that we're finally starting to see a 148 00:07:44,520 --> 00:07:47,440 Speaker 1: little bit of improvement in the pace of people returning 149 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,600 Speaker 1: to the job market. The labor force participation rate over 150 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:54,360 Speaker 1: the last two months grew by four tenths of a percent. 151 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 1: I don't know. That doesn't sound like much, but it's 152 00:07:57,640 --> 00:08:01,000 Speaker 1: equal to the game that we saw uh in all 153 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 1: of two thousand and twenty one. So as COVID eases, 154 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 1: I think that we should continue to see more people 155 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 1: be willing to rejoin willing we're able to rejoin the 156 00:08:13,000 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 1: job market. That's good because it puts more people to work, 157 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:19,080 Speaker 1: and it also should take some pressure off of wage 158 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:21,840 Speaker 1: gains as well. So there's this idea right now, and 159 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 1: you're seeing this in currency. Is certainly with the dollar 160 00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 1: strength and the era weakness, that the US will be 161 00:08:27,800 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 1: able to avoid stagflation even in the face of this 162 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:34,320 Speaker 1: commodity shock, but Europe will not. Do you think that 163 00:08:34,320 --> 00:08:39,120 Speaker 1: that is consistent with what you're seeing? Yes, I do 164 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 1: think so. I we believe right now that when you 165 00:08:42,559 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 1: look at stagflation that is weak or stagnant pace of 166 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 1: economic expansion, well during periods of very high inflation. We 167 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:56,959 Speaker 1: do think that at current crew oil prices, and it's 168 00:08:57,000 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 1: really a story about energy prices, particularly when you're talking 169 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 1: about the difference between the United States and Western Europe. Um, 170 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:09,320 Speaker 1: it's the impact of those higher prices for energy here 171 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 1: in the United States with crude oil prices as was 172 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 1: just mentioned, the crude oil and about one, we think 173 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 1: that anywhere between a hundred and a hundred twenty should 174 00:09:19,840 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 1: have a negative impact on our real GDP by about 175 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:27,960 Speaker 1: half to one full percentage point. So our estimate for 176 00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:31,480 Speaker 1: this year coming into the year was for real GDP 177 00:09:31,600 --> 00:09:34,640 Speaker 1: to go by three and a half percent UM. So 178 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:39,720 Speaker 1: uh So, then current West Texas intermediate price is a 179 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 1: drag on that number, but there's still plenty of underlying 180 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:47,800 Speaker 1: room for growth. In our view. It's more negatively impactful 181 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:51,320 Speaker 1: for Europe because they import much more than we do. 182 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:55,079 Speaker 1: And uh those imports not only do they pay a 183 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:58,160 Speaker 1: higher price, but it's a greater risk because they import 184 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:02,960 Speaker 1: so much from Russia. All Right, So, Russell, how do 185 00:10:03,000 --> 00:10:05,200 Speaker 1: you think the data that we've seen over the past 186 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:09,560 Speaker 1: several days, including today's jobs data and the geopolitical risk 187 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:12,959 Speaker 1: that we're all witnessing in Ukraine. How do you think 188 00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 1: that impacts what our federal Reserve is going to do 189 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 1: for the remainder of the year. Yeah. I think they 190 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 1: still have to be concerned about the negative influence of 191 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:24,640 Speaker 1: energy prices and the which is the ex uh, the 192 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 1: extrapolation from the problems and in Europe and uh, the 193 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:32,440 Speaker 1: war in Ukraine. I think that's still has to be 194 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:38,040 Speaker 1: a very significant component of their calculations. So I agree that, Well, 195 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 1: we already know from the Fed Shair citing the other 196 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:44,080 Speaker 1: day that he's going to support a twenty five basis 197 00:10:44,120 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 1: point hike here in their meeting next week. UM. So uh, 198 00:10:49,240 --> 00:10:52,040 Speaker 1: we expect twenty five basis points, and we expect for 199 00:10:52,080 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 1: the full year probably four or five basis point hikes, uh, 200 00:10:57,080 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 1: including the one we see possibly you know in the so. Um, 201 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:07,000 Speaker 1: the Fed, they do are able to look at the 202 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:10,760 Speaker 1: job market and lean into that as a position of strength. 203 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:13,080 Speaker 1: In other words, one of the things that they would 204 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 1: be most they don't want to do is slow the 205 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 1: economy to where it slows the job market to where 206 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:22,320 Speaker 1: we're seeing net job losses, but we're in such a 207 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:26,839 Speaker 1: position of strength that gives them some leeway to hike 208 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 1: um as as they feel needed to constrain inflation. Uh 209 00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:34,480 Speaker 1: So it is still the wild card with energy prices, 210 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:38,200 Speaker 1: and that is at the moment at least very highly 211 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:42,480 Speaker 1: dependent on the situation in Ukraine, which is m remains 212 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:45,840 Speaker 1: uncertain and unknowable. All right, Russell, thank you so much. 213 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:49,200 Speaker 1: We really appreciate getting your thoughts and perspective there, Russell Price, 214 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:57,160 Speaker 1: chief economists at Amera Price Financial. The jobstd again better 215 00:11:57,200 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: than expected numbers, and we want to break it down 216 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 1: a little bit. We can do that with Tom Gimbell, 217 00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:04,000 Speaker 1: founder and CEO of the Lassal Network. Toms, some pretty 218 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:06,520 Speaker 1: solid numbers on the labor front. Looks like folks are 219 00:12:06,520 --> 00:12:10,840 Speaker 1: getting back into the workforce. What's your takeaway? Pretty solid? 220 00:12:11,040 --> 00:12:16,079 Speaker 1: I'd say they're outstanding. Yep, these things see things bouncing back. 221 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:19,280 Speaker 1: And you know, I'm I'm a realist and I'm an optimist, 222 00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:23,640 Speaker 1: and I look at this and it says, uh, corporations 223 00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 1: are very bullish on where things are. They continue to 224 00:12:27,200 --> 00:12:30,280 Speaker 1: hire people were coming into the spring, the summer. The 225 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:35,040 Speaker 1: masks are off companies continue to grow, and I'm very 226 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:39,319 Speaker 1: optimistic and we'll see what happens when the basis points increase. 227 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:41,320 Speaker 1: But I think things are continuing to grow and we're 228 00:12:41,320 --> 00:12:43,720 Speaker 1: gonna have a great summer of hiring as well. Tom 229 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:45,720 Speaker 1: talked to us about kind of the wages we had. 230 00:12:46,160 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 1: You know, the street was looking for zero point five percent, 231 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:51,520 Speaker 1: gained an average hourly earnings on a month a month 232 00:12:51,520 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 1: basis came in at zero point zero. And how do 233 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 1: you think about wages here because we've certainly seen, you know, 234 00:12:57,920 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 1: the Walmarts of the world, the McDonald's of the world, 235 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 1: ramping up their entry level per hour wages. How do 236 00:13:03,360 --> 00:13:06,560 Speaker 1: you think about wage inflation? Yeah, I think the fact 237 00:13:06,640 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 1: that it was zero is actually a good thing. It 238 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:12,840 Speaker 1: means that people aren't moving and the wages aren't increasing 239 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:15,040 Speaker 1: just because people are throwing money. It means that we're 240 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:17,960 Speaker 1: getting a little bit of a more stable job market 241 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:21,040 Speaker 1: and economy, that we're not ribing people for certain things, 242 00:13:21,120 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 1: that people are re entering the workforce, that COVID settling down, 243 00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 1: and that companies are hiring due to growth and not 244 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:30,199 Speaker 1: ribing people, and that we're seeing a really really strong 245 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:34,200 Speaker 1: labor market that's based on both it's almost an equal 246 00:13:34,720 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 1: of h of supply and demand kind of you know, 247 00:13:37,800 --> 00:13:40,480 Speaker 1: when when you have a short supply, wages are going 248 00:13:40,520 --> 00:13:43,040 Speaker 1: to increase to get people. When you have an almost 249 00:13:43,040 --> 00:13:45,679 Speaker 1: an equal supply and demand and you don't have wage increase, 250 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 1: it actually shows that you've got a market that's working. 251 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:52,800 Speaker 1: So I'm very optimistic about where this thing's at right now. Tom. 252 00:13:52,800 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 1: When you talk to your client companies that you work with, 253 00:13:56,000 --> 00:14:00,080 Speaker 1: what are they doing to UH that might be different, unique, new, 254 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:02,680 Speaker 1: different from pre pandemic levels in terms of trying to 255 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:07,400 Speaker 1: attract workers. The number one thing that we're emphasizing with 256 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:10,199 Speaker 1: our clients and we're seeing them do is learning and development. 257 00:14:10,600 --> 00:14:13,360 Speaker 1: You've got to invest more money to make your people 258 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:18,480 Speaker 1: better and that creates continuity, It creates a sense of collegiality, 259 00:14:18,559 --> 00:14:21,240 Speaker 1: and it also lets them know that you're invested in 260 00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 1: their career, in their future and they feel a bigger 261 00:14:23,800 --> 00:14:26,280 Speaker 1: connection to the company. And so when you have that, 262 00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:29,520 Speaker 1: they're gonna be more A more stable company is a 263 00:14:29,520 --> 00:14:32,680 Speaker 1: better attraction of talent, and when you have more turnover, 264 00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:36,320 Speaker 1: you're always backfilling in addition to growth. People can sense 265 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 1: that and they don't want to join those companies. So 266 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 1: we're every company is gonna try to do recruiting bonuses 267 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:44,760 Speaker 1: and retention bonuses. They're gonna try to do more happy 268 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 1: hours and fun things to get people in the office, 269 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:49,640 Speaker 1: or they'll go the other way and let people work 270 00:14:49,640 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 1: from home just to try to stay. But it's really 271 00:14:52,040 --> 00:14:55,040 Speaker 1: the learning and development and investing in people that sends 272 00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:57,480 Speaker 1: a culture that people want to join. Tom, I'm back 273 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:00,160 Speaker 1: in your office every day, but I'm the aberration. And 274 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:03,240 Speaker 1: how do you think this shakes out. I think we'll 275 00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:06,560 Speaker 1: end up seeing for the most part, uh no, less 276 00:15:06,560 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 1: than three days a week, and really four days a week. 277 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 1: I think Friday is going to be remote Friday like 278 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:14,720 Speaker 1: it was casual Friday, and it's gonna be You'll have 279 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,080 Speaker 1: a few places, maybe law firms or banks or something 280 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 1: that are in the office on Friday, but most companies 281 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:23,400 Speaker 1: will be uh not in mandatory in the office remote Fridays, 282 00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:25,680 Speaker 1: and the majority of companies will be three to four 283 00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:27,920 Speaker 1: days a week. It sounds pretty good to me, I 284 00:15:27,920 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 1: guess um, but I come in every day, so we'll 285 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 1: see how it plays out. Tom. Thanks there, I'm right 286 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:35,960 Speaker 1: there with the right exactly. Someone know, someone didn't give 287 00:15:35,960 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 1: me a choice, as I recall, but here I am anyway. 288 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:41,200 Speaker 1: Tom Gimbell, founder and CEO of LaSalle Network, talking to 289 00:15:41,240 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 1: us about this blowout jobs number we had today again 290 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:48,040 Speaker 1: came in well above expectations. We had an upward revision 291 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 1: to last month's jobs data as well, so again, folks 292 00:15:52,160 --> 00:16:00,200 Speaker 1: are kind of getting back into this labor economy. You know, 293 00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 1: when I saw Jeffrey Cleveland on our list of guest today, 294 00:16:02,680 --> 00:16:04,480 Speaker 1: I said, there's something odd about this dude. I just 295 00:16:04,520 --> 00:16:07,600 Speaker 1: can't remember what it is. But it's even more than odd, 296 00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,560 Speaker 1: it's troubling. Jeffy Cleveland, Director in chief Economist Payton and Regal. 297 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:13,280 Speaker 1: What's odd is he's an avid swimmer, but that doesn't 298 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:15,680 Speaker 1: really capture He swam across the English Channel in two 299 00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 1: thousand and eight, across the Catalta Channel in two thousand nine, 300 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:23,320 Speaker 1: and around Manhattan. This triple crown of open water swimming 301 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:25,960 Speaker 1: has only been completed by forty people. So what's wrong 302 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:28,840 Speaker 1: with this guy? Anyway? Jeff you're a good economists. I 303 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 1: guess that's what all we talked to you. I mean, 304 00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:33,560 Speaker 1: perfectly good boat would do just fine here, um, but 305 00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:37,600 Speaker 1: congratulations on being amazing swimmer. Would you take out of 306 00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:40,240 Speaker 1: the jobs day. But data today it seemed pretty darn 307 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 1: good to me. Well, it was, yeah, solid reports, best 308 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 1: report in rough yeah eight months. In terms of the 309 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:51,440 Speaker 1: headline non farm payroll number, we seem to be in 310 00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:54,920 Speaker 1: this this range of monthly paywroll growth of around five 311 00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 1: d thousand or so. That's that's really strong. I think, 312 00:16:59,400 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 1: you know, I really you always like to look at 313 00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:05,920 Speaker 1: the employment to population ratio for five to fifty four 314 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:09,000 Speaker 1: year olds. I think that's your core working age population 315 00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:12,600 Speaker 1: and that's probably your best you know filters. You can 316 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:15,760 Speaker 1: filter out a lot of the noise, you know, aging workforce, 317 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 1: all these kind of things, and that that jumped again 318 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 1: seventy nine point five. We're still shy of where we 319 00:17:22,520 --> 00:17:27,640 Speaker 1: were pre COVID, but we've improved on that measure mightily 320 00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:30,720 Speaker 1: in the last twelve months. Um So, no sign, I 321 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 1: would say, no sign of stagnation here. We're seeing very 322 00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:37,920 Speaker 1: strong growth in the in the first quarter. If you 323 00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:44,399 Speaker 1: look at jobs as yours, your key indicator three headline unemployment, 324 00:17:44,440 --> 00:17:47,720 Speaker 1: is that the new full employment for this economy. No, 325 00:17:47,880 --> 00:17:49,400 Speaker 1: I think we can go lower. We think we'll get 326 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 1: to three three by the end of the year. That's 327 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 1: our forecast. We did see labor force participation tick up 328 00:17:57,720 --> 00:17:59,920 Speaker 1: UM a little bit this month, and we think there's 329 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,960 Speaker 1: there's more room. There's there's some folks that are sidelined. 330 00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:05,240 Speaker 1: You know that it's not retirement, it's they were a 331 00:18:05,280 --> 00:18:08,800 Speaker 1: sidelined because of the virus, because of childcare responsibilities, etcetera. 332 00:18:08,880 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 1: And they will we think, come back in as the 333 00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:14,440 Speaker 1: year progresses. That's not unusual in you know, the last 334 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:17,320 Speaker 1: three cycles. You saw that as the unemployment rate got 335 00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:21,160 Speaker 1: lower and lower, people were enticed to re enter, come 336 00:18:21,160 --> 00:18:23,240 Speaker 1: back off the sidelines. And so we think that will happen. 337 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:25,280 Speaker 1: But three point eight is not the the end point here. 338 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:27,120 Speaker 1: We'll get we'll get we'll get lower on the unemployment 339 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:29,600 Speaker 1: rate later this year. How do you think the FED 340 00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:33,560 Speaker 1: looks at, you know, a job print like we saw today, Well, 341 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:35,920 Speaker 1: I think, you know, there's some concern people are talking 342 00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:39,880 Speaker 1: about GDP growth in Q one being flat or even negative. 343 00:18:40,440 --> 00:18:43,000 Speaker 1: And you know my advice is, you know, I prefer 344 00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:47,600 Speaker 1: job growth to GDP growth in real time in terms 345 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:49,399 Speaker 1: of getting a getting a sense of the economy. So 346 00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 1: I would I would overweight the jobs data versus the 347 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:55,440 Speaker 1: GDP data. So That's that's one. And as I said this, 348 00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:58,680 Speaker 1: this is telling you the economy is still growing very strongly, 349 00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:01,879 Speaker 1: very swiftly in the first quarter. So that's the first 350 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 1: thing there. There's some concern in some quarters, some some 351 00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 1: folks I talked to in the bond market, bond traders, friends, colleagues, 352 00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:11,040 Speaker 1: they'll say, you know, they're they're they're concerned about a 353 00:19:11,040 --> 00:19:15,600 Speaker 1: wage price spiral, but you're you're not really seeing that 354 00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:19,520 Speaker 1: here in this in this job support obviously flattish month 355 00:19:19,600 --> 00:19:23,000 Speaker 1: to month average genially earnings, average genially earnings up five 356 00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:26,359 Speaker 1: percent year on year. If you factor in inflation, you 357 00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 1: get negative real wage growth there. So you're not seeing 358 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 1: some worrisome signs of a waste price price. So the 359 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:34,359 Speaker 1: Fed probably okay with that. I mean, it argues I 360 00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 1: guess for the twenty five basis point versus the fifty 361 00:19:36,560 --> 00:19:39,240 Speaker 1: basis point doing something more dramatic. So that's that's probably 362 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,960 Speaker 1: your key takeaway. I just don't want people to make 363 00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:44,240 Speaker 1: too much out of one month. Uh, you know, in 364 00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:47,520 Speaker 1: terms of the wage data, I think there could be 365 00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:50,680 Speaker 1: some noise in their compositional effects um in terms of 366 00:19:50,960 --> 00:19:53,640 Speaker 1: the hirings done during the month. So I think job 367 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,520 Speaker 1: or wage growth will continue to pick up as as 368 00:19:56,520 --> 00:19:59,119 Speaker 1: the year goes. How do you factor in here? So 369 00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:02,240 Speaker 1: we have a strong labor market, healing and improving labor market, 370 00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:05,800 Speaker 1: but we've still got energy prices going through the roof. Here, 371 00:20:05,800 --> 00:20:07,359 Speaker 1: I got w T I crewed up another three and 372 00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:09,399 Speaker 1: a half percent to a hundred and eleven dollars a 373 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 1: barrel I've got. Now I've got a worse. I've got 374 00:20:12,080 --> 00:20:14,800 Speaker 1: the geopolitical issues out there. I've got supply chain issues 375 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:18,320 Speaker 1: staring commodity prices. How do you factor that into your 376 00:20:18,320 --> 00:20:22,760 Speaker 1: GDP Outlook? Well, what we've done is we've shaved GDP 377 00:20:22,880 --> 00:20:25,200 Speaker 1: growth for the year due in large parts of the 378 00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 1: factors that you're describing. So we started the year thinking 379 00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 1: the U. S economy would grow about four percent. We've 380 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,560 Speaker 1: now shaved that down to three tents p percent, so 381 00:20:33,560 --> 00:20:36,920 Speaker 1: we're at three point seven. We've raised our inflation, so 382 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:39,919 Speaker 1: we do think inflation will fall over the course of 383 00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:43,199 Speaker 1: the year. So core PC, for example, we have a 384 00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,160 Speaker 1: getting to three three by the end of the year. 385 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,640 Speaker 1: Previously we thought it was gonna fall maybe to three 386 00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:52,120 Speaker 1: years been below. So we've we've shaved GDP, we've raised inflation, 387 00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 1: and that puts the central bank in a tough spot. Right, 388 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:57,080 Speaker 1: you still have decent growth, you don't have a recession, 389 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,000 Speaker 1: but you you have the risk that inflation will come 390 00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:05,479 Speaker 1: in higher than forecast, and so they should be hiking. 391 00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:08,920 Speaker 1: Uh you know how quickly they hike, You know they're 392 00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,879 Speaker 1: you know, onentary policy is very accommodtive right now. I 393 00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 1: think we're at nine trillion on the Fed balance sheet, 394 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,879 Speaker 1: We're still at zero and we've got inflation, So I 395 00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:20,600 Speaker 1: think they need to get going with that. But I mean, 396 00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:23,919 Speaker 1: I guess the concern I have here is the financial markets. 397 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,720 Speaker 1: The signals we're getting from financial markets are not giving 398 00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,600 Speaker 1: a green light to tightening policies. So what do I 399 00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 1: mean two stends, two stands curve flattening Now we're under 400 00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:36,880 Speaker 1: thirty BIPs. That's usually a precursor to slower growth. When 401 00:21:36,880 --> 00:21:38,760 Speaker 1: the two s tends curve inverts, you mean, you know 402 00:21:38,800 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 1: you have a recession on the horizon. There's some flags there, 403 00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:43,840 Speaker 1: of course, but that's worrisome. The crude oil situation that 404 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,399 Speaker 1: you mentioned, like sharp rises and crude oil tend to 405 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 1: proceed recessions, So I'm I'm concerned about that. And then 406 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,479 Speaker 1: I'm watching you know. Our chart of the week this 407 00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:55,160 Speaker 1: week was the Bloomberg financial conditions in debt and when 408 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:59,400 Speaker 1: financial conditions do tighten, that gives central bankers reason to pause. 409 00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:02,360 Speaker 1: So um, good stuff. Lots of things to worry about 410 00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 1: to put into that equation. Certainly, Jeff Cleveland, director and 411 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:08,720 Speaker 1: chief of Connerss, have paid in rewal joining us. Thanks 412 00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:12,199 Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe 413 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:15,920 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast 414 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:19,520 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at 415 00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:22,879 Speaker 1: Matt Miller V three and on Fall Sweeney I'm on 416 00:22:22,880 --> 00:22:25,840 Speaker 1: Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always 417 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:27,960 Speaker 1: catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio