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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds, and Elon Musk has lifted Donald Trump's

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Speaker 1: Twitter van. We have a wild show for you today.

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Speaker 1: Congresson Mondair Jones stops by to talk to us about

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Speaker 1: the changes the New York political machine needs to make

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Speaker 1: to ensure the Democrats future dominance. Then we talked to

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Speaker 1: ABC News political director Rick Kleine about the mid terms

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Speaker 1: unexpected outcomes. But first we have the host of the

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Speaker 1: podcast Okay Computer on the tape and market Watch, who

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Speaker 1: all is a squawk Box contributor, Dan Nathan. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: Fast Politics, Dan Nathan, Molly John Fast, Thanks for having

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Speaker 1: me back. Well, it's always a delight and there's so

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Speaker 1: much to talk about. And first I think we should

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Speaker 1: talk about even though the mid terms are a couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks in the rear view, we are still in

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Speaker 1: this interesting period when a lot of people thought Americans

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Speaker 1: would vote on the economy or their you know, their

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Speaker 1: fantasy of the economy or whatever that was. They didn't

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Speaker 1: And I'm curious to know are you surprised? And furthermore,

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Speaker 1: what is happening right now with the economy. Yeah, so

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Speaker 1: interestingly enough, I mean, I think that there was so

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Speaker 1: much concern over the prices of just kind of goods

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Speaker 1: and services and just the increase kind of year over year, right,

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Speaker 1: So that would be the term inflation that a lot

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Speaker 1: of Americans have been feeling, you know, in the aftermath

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Speaker 1: I guess of the pandemic. And if you think about UM,

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Speaker 1: a lot of what our government did, whether it be UM, Congress,

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Speaker 1: the White House, the US Federal Reserve during the pandemic

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Speaker 1: is they kind of flooded the zone with monetary and

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Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus. They wanted to make sure companies didn't go

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Speaker 1: out of business so they could keep people employed, and

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Speaker 1: they wanted to make sure that households were okay, right,

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Speaker 1: And so they got through the pandemic for the most

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Speaker 1: art I think, pretty decently. But then we kind of

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Speaker 1: hit the kind of pedal to the metal again last

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Speaker 1: year with some more fiscal stimulus, and that really caused

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Speaker 1: an increase in UM inflationary pressures. But that was also

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Speaker 1: caused by China zero COVID policy, by broken supply chains,

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Speaker 1: and then obviously the war UM in Europe. So I guess,

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Speaker 1: you know, when we have this kind of numbers, we

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Speaker 1: had forty year high readings and inflation, I think a

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Speaker 1: lot of people thinking about how mid term elections usually

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Speaker 1: go right for a first term president, do you have

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Speaker 1: about economy? It's usually lights out right, And I think

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Speaker 1: that was kind of overtaking a lot of the kind

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Speaker 1: of you know, thoughts about you know, what's going to

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Speaker 1: dominate at least voters interest, and so in the aftermath,

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Speaker 1: I think what's really important to kind of recognize the

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Speaker 1: fact is that, yes, we have forty year high inflation readings.

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Speaker 1: I think everybody economists and I think just a lot

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Speaker 1: of market strategists and people who just kind of follow

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Speaker 1: this stuff politically. Also, we're pretty safe to kind of

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Speaker 1: guess that inflation readings were going to peak sometime soon, right,

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Speaker 1: And so here we are. That's what we're seeing, um

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Speaker 1: right now. And so I guess the point is is

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Speaker 1: that this could actually set up really nicely Molly, if

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Speaker 1: you think about it, if all of these rate increases

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Speaker 1: to battle inflation. Right, So we've had mortgage prices go up, um,

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Speaker 1: and that could be a near term phenomenon. The economy

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Speaker 1: could be setting up Okay, if we get through let's say,

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Speaker 1: the second half of into four for this incumbent president

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Speaker 1: and because this this kind of red wave never materialized here,

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Speaker 1: so again, the economy might be doing okay, or at

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Speaker 1: least a lot better than I think a lot of

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Speaker 1: politicians or voters thought as they headed into the midterm.

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Speaker 1: Part of that is anxiety. It's I want to say,

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Speaker 1: it's like Carter anxiety right the seventies world period with

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Speaker 1: a lot of inflation, and you know, it ended up

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Speaker 1: ending the Carter presidency. And I feel like every time

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Speaker 1: people talk about inflation, or at least me in my mind,

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Speaker 1: I go right back to Carter and I feel like

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Speaker 1: that angs it kind of permeated the narrative to a

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Speaker 1: certain extent totally because we had this oil crisis right

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Speaker 1: there was so much focus on oil because that's the

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Speaker 1: thing that most um, you know, individual consumers, they feel

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Speaker 1: the pinchet. But I also say, this is really important

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Speaker 1: part of this is that you know, we had unemployment

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Speaker 1: down to three and a half percent. This was before

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Speaker 1: the pandemic, and where is it unemployment right now? It's

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Speaker 1: only at three point seven percent. It just picked up

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Speaker 1: a little bit. So after we saw unemployment shoot up

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Speaker 1: during the pandemic, it came right back down to those

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Speaker 1: pre pandemic levels. So I guess the good news for

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Speaker 1: the economy is that we had a pretty decent savings

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Speaker 1: rate for consumers, so their balance sheets were in good

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Speaker 1: order coming out of the pandemic, and we didn't see unemployment,

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Speaker 1: you know, shoot up very dramatically right now, and that's

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Speaker 1: kind of the last piece of the puzzle that the

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Speaker 1: US FED is kind of focused on as they think

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Speaker 1: about their battle with inflation. They've raised interest rates dramatically,

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Speaker 1: so FED fund futures. This is the interest rate, the

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Speaker 1: short term interest rate that the US Federal Reserve controls.

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Speaker 1: They've raised it basically three percent over the last four meetings,

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Speaker 1: is the fastest increase ever. And that's why you've seen

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Speaker 1: mortgage rates go up pretty dramatically. But you've also seen

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Speaker 1: a lot of housing data come in, so they wanted

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Speaker 1: to cool off some of these asset bubbles a little bit.

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Speaker 1: And I guess the silver lining is if they can

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Speaker 1: do this without the like, without unemployment going up meaningfully,

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Speaker 1: then that would be again a good situation for the economy.

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Speaker 1: As we get into let's say the backside of the

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Speaker 1: one thing I think is probably a near certainty there

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Speaker 1: will be a recession. But I guess the point is

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Speaker 1: that that happens at some point at least the things

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Speaker 1: that I look at this stuff through the lens of

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Speaker 1: the markets, they will have already discounted that at some point,

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Speaker 1: right So we could be in a recession right now

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Speaker 1: and not know it, and by the time we realize

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Speaker 1: that we could be out of it correct and then

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Speaker 1: also if we're able to do that in a manner

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Speaker 1: where unemployment doesn't go up meaningfully. But I guess the

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Speaker 1: next part of this, you know equation is is that

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Speaker 1: notion of stagflation you just mentioned Carter in the late

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Speaker 1: seventies and what that did for his presidency. Stagflation is

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Speaker 1: a situation where prices of goods and services have gone up.

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Speaker 1: They can come off their highs, which I expect that

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Speaker 1: to happen with this situation, but you have lower growth, right,

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Speaker 1: and so if you have higher prices and lower growth,

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Speaker 1: it makes for a really, like the name says, just

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Speaker 1: a stagnant environment. So um, again, it's not like we're

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Speaker 1: gonna come out of this pandemic and we're gonna have

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Speaker 1: this rip oring economy which a lot of people thought

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Speaker 1: we were gonna have. We might go back to the

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Speaker 1: pre pandemic growth GDP growth domestic the product was averaging

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Speaker 1: about two point two percent, which is not great, it's

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Speaker 1: not bad or whatever, but it was also in and

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Speaker 1: around where inflation wasn't about two percent, and so at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day, we just might be in

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Speaker 1: an economy that saddled with a lot of debt that

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Speaker 1: was there to help, um, you know, kind of make

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Speaker 1: sure we could stay afloat during the pandemic. Then we

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Speaker 1: had inflationary pressures on the way out of it. That

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Speaker 1: seems very likely if you put so much you know,

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Speaker 1: capital to a problem like this, you're gonna have an

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Speaker 1: increase in prices. So, you know, we juste is not

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Speaker 1: going to be a great year for the economy. It's

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Speaker 1: not probably gonna be a great year for markets, but

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Speaker 1: it could also be a really good digestion year considering

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Speaker 1: the prior three years that we've been in with also

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Speaker 1: the dismantling of some major forces. If you think about

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Speaker 1: this whole deglobalization and our reliance on cheap foreign labor

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Speaker 1: and supply chains oriented around China, that's coming apart right now,

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Speaker 1: and that's also inflationary well. And also it's going to

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Speaker 1: be less bad than we thought it would be, which

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Speaker 1: I think is the important data point. Right. But you know,

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Speaker 1: the US government, the US consumer, US manufacturing, we made

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Speaker 1: a deal with if you can call it, the devil

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Speaker 1: you know, forty fifty years ago about focused on cheap labor,

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Speaker 1: about jobs that supposedly Americans did want to do. And

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Speaker 1: what did that do well? That we got cheaper goods, right,

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Speaker 1: And so that's something that's been going on um for

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Speaker 1: a long time now. If you think about it's not

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Speaker 1: just supply chains, but it's also energy as as a

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Speaker 1: point of national security. I think that's something that we're

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Speaker 1: going to come out of this period and think, you know,

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Speaker 1: you know, maybe that's right. And I will tell you this.

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Speaker 1: You probably haven't heard me compliment um the prior president

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Speaker 1: too much. I mean, I don't think the way in

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Speaker 1: which they put the trade war in place with China.

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Speaker 1: I didn't like how they did that, okay, but I

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Speaker 1: think they were right on a lot of issues there,

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Speaker 1: you know. And I think that if you just think

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Speaker 1: about the Biden administration, they have not kind of backed

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Speaker 1: off a lot of those tariffs that we've had and

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Speaker 1: some of the issues that we've had, they've been much tougher.

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Speaker 1: I know that you spent some time talking about this

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Speaker 1: in your podcast, but the export band of advanced chips,

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Speaker 1: you know, from the US to China. I mean that

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Speaker 1: was like a major, major shot across the bottle, right.

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Speaker 1: And also they're bringing manufacturing back to the United States

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Speaker 1: right there, building the you know, factories they're encouraging. So

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Speaker 1: the Chips Act was a great example. I mean, this

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Speaker 1: is fifty plus billion dollars. You know, a lot of

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Speaker 1: people think it was corporate welfare. They wanted to incentivize

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Speaker 1: US chip makers to kind of make those factories here,

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Speaker 1: employee workers here. Again, the problem is is that if

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Speaker 1: you make iPhones that already cost about a thousand dollars

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Speaker 1: to consumers, you make them here and you reorient your

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Speaker 1: supply chains here. Okay, in the West, those iPhones they're

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Speaker 1: gonna be a lot more expensive. And then the last

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Speaker 1: part of this whole inflation piece is that once wages

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Speaker 1: start to go up, which is really what's happened here

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Speaker 1: over because we have a shortage right now and obviously

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Speaker 1: there's a huge immigration issue. So we have a shortage

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Speaker 1: of workers, and if we have a shortage of skilled workers,

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Speaker 1: I mean demand for them is going to go up

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Speaker 1: and then those wages are gonna stick. And that's a

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Speaker 1: really difficult scenario for corporation, especially US multinationals who have

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Speaker 1: actually gotten really used to cheap foreign labor. Matt green Field,

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Speaker 1: my long surferings past, was talking about in an inverse

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Speaker 1: yield curve and I pretended I know, I knew what

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Speaker 1: he was talking about. Pain. Yeah, So so we just

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Speaker 1: talked about how quickly the US Federal Reserve is raising

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Speaker 1: interest rates. And one of the things they're trying to

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Speaker 1: do there is kind of tamped down asset bubble. So

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Speaker 1: if rates are higher, the cost of money is higher,

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Speaker 1: and therefore, you know, valuations on assets should be lower

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Speaker 1: in that scenario. So they were unusually low to battle

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Speaker 1: the pandemic, right we just talked about, so they've raised

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Speaker 1: them kind of quickly. So if you look at inverted

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Speaker 1: yield curve, really what it's signaling is the two year

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Speaker 1: US Treasury yield is above the tenure yield, and that

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Speaker 1: shouldn't be Shorter term money should not have a higher

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Speaker 1: interest rate than longer term money. Just just think about it.

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Speaker 1: Really simply, ten years is a lot more time for

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Speaker 1: things that you're wrong and maybe you don't pay that

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Speaker 1: um that debt instrument back two years is a shorter

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Speaker 1: period of time. But the two year is reflecting what

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Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve has done and what they're saying about

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Speaker 1: how they're going to battle inflation. And therefore the ten

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Speaker 1: year yield is more reflective of potential growth in the

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Speaker 1: in the future. So the two ten spread that's inverted

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Speaker 1: to the tune of the two year treasury yield being

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Speaker 1: higher than the ten is saying stag inflation. And I

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Speaker 1: know that may seem like a lot maybe that kind

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Speaker 1: of puts together the conversation and we just had. But basically,

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Speaker 1: lower long term growth is what the two ten spread

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Speaker 1: inverted means. And the two year being higher right now

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Speaker 1: is just suggesting that, um, you know, the FET is

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Speaker 1: going to stay the course on higher interest rates. And

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Speaker 1: I guess the point that also makes is that inverted

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Speaker 1: yield curve like this, to Matt's point, has almost every

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Speaker 1: single time that's happened resulted in a recession, or excuse me,

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Speaker 1: put differently, every recession that we have had in the

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Speaker 1: last call it sixty years or show has been preceded

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Speaker 1: by a two ten yield curve inverting. Right. That was

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Speaker 1: when we were talking about whether or not there was

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Speaker 1: going to be a recession. He said, well, the yield

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Speaker 1: curve is inverted. And I wanted to ask him but

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Speaker 1: lost interest. But I'm glad you answered that question and

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Speaker 1: now our listeners can know all about the inverseil curve.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about my favorite subject, and it's actually quickly

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Speaker 1: not becoming my favorite subject. To the death of Twitter.

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Speaker 1: I never thought he would go through with it. Now

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Speaker 1: he's gone through with it. Now he seems I mean,

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Speaker 1: he seems like he's just desperate to destroy it unless

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Speaker 1: you can explain to me, I mean, explain to me

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Speaker 1: what's happening here. Well, it's from my point of view,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think he the guy tried to fix

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Speaker 1: the Ukraine. Um, you know, warred in Russia. He's not

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Speaker 1: a political science He scientists. He claims that, you know,

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Speaker 1: he's a rocket scientist. He's not one of that. He's

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Speaker 1: not that either, right, So here he is now, you know,

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Speaker 1: he's like you've been following all this stuff about all

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Speaker 1: this coding and stuff. He's not. He's not a he's

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Speaker 1: not a computer scientist. Yeah, it's just really kind of funny, right.

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Speaker 1: I think he really thinks he's got a god complex.

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Speaker 1: I really think he thinks he can fix this thing.

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Speaker 1: I think the most important thing is that Jack Dorsey,

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Speaker 1: who was the founder of this company, two time CEO,

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Speaker 1: who was CEO a little more than a year ago, Okay,

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Speaker 1: before he gave up the reins of that, he was

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Speaker 1: running this company into the ground, being the CEO of

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Speaker 1: two companies, Square which was one of them, and then

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Speaker 1: Twitter was the other. So so this company monetizes their

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Speaker 1: user base at at a much you know, worse rate

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Speaker 1: to some of their competitors and social media, they're audience

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Speaker 1: or the users are growing much slower. Okay, that was

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Speaker 1: the case. So he thought he could come in here

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Speaker 1: and get rid of all these bots that he thinks

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Speaker 1: is this massive problem here um and and making just

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Speaker 1: a better places, this kind of what digital town squarely calls,

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Speaker 1: um you know what would be great for humanity. But

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Speaker 1: in doing so, he's really and again I know you're

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Speaker 1: following this because I'm following you on Twitter, which is

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Speaker 1: kind of metic here. I mean, he really is putting

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Speaker 1: this platform on the brank. I know a lot of

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Speaker 1: really smart people who like to sound smart on Twitter

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Speaker 1: say it's much harder, you know, to have something like this.

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Speaker 1: These these systems are much more resilient. So if you

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Speaker 1: even get rid of thousands of people on a employee base,

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Speaker 1: it won't matter because this thing has been built for

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Speaker 1: all these years. Um, I don't know the things that

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Speaker 1: you're focused on, trust and safety and all those other

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Speaker 1: issues about disinformation and battling those sorts of things. You

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Speaker 1: think that people are really important to those processes, right,

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Speaker 1: and so all of those people are gone. Most of

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Speaker 1: the people what it sounds like, who had real important

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Speaker 1: jobs there about the direction of the platform are all

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Speaker 1: gone there. You know, maybe there's some hardcore libertarian browe

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Speaker 1: tech people who are sticking around because they're just like

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Speaker 1: always been Elon fans. But but again, I just don't

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Speaker 1: think it's the sort of place that people are gonna

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Speaker 1: go on to go work. And I think what's really

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Speaker 1: clear is that advertisers right now don't want to be there.

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Speaker 1: And this is a company that's reliant on big advertisers.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's very different over at Facebook or Meta

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Speaker 1: they have like lots of small medium businesses that are local.

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Speaker 1: Twitter relies on large companies to advertise. And then you

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Speaker 1: also saw over the weekend that CBS News, so they're

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Speaker 1: gonna stop tweeting, you know, just think about that, right,

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Speaker 1: Think about you. You take your a million followers, right,

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Speaker 1: and you all the content that you're putting out there

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Speaker 1: throughout the day. Let's say it goes somewhere else. And

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Speaker 1: maybe that's this post thing. I've seen you and Kara

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Speaker 1: switch your tweet about. I just signed up for it.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna follow you first thing tomorrow. But there could

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Speaker 1: be an alternative. And again, I don't think he wants

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Speaker 1: to kill it now. I do think though, that he

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Speaker 1: has a situation where and you and I've talked about

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Speaker 1: this before. I mean, he bought this thing for forty

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Speaker 1: four billion dollars. He got a bunch of banks to

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Speaker 1: give him nearly thirteen billion dollars in debt, right and

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Speaker 1: that debt is training at like sixty cents on the

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Speaker 1: dollar right now. They haven't even been able to place it.

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Speaker 1: He also has been selling his test Less stock to

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Speaker 1: fund the purchase. He's also probably pledged a lot of

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Speaker 1: test Less stock okay to kind of be part of

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Speaker 1: the equity. He also had a lot of other equity

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Speaker 1: people come into it who held equity in the public

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Speaker 1: company rolled it into the private But there's a scenario

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Speaker 1: where you know, he probably paid um, you know, twenty

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Speaker 1: five billion more than it's worth and um, you know,

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Speaker 1: So he's got a scenario where it's not a great

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Speaker 1: financial setup, Like it will really be hard for him

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Speaker 1: to make money anytime soon in the next three to

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Speaker 1: five years on this thing, which is usually what you

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Speaker 1: would hope to do if you were going to take

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Speaker 1: a public company private. You're gonna lever it up with debt,

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Speaker 1: You're gonna cut costs, and you're gonna try to get

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Speaker 1: faster growth and then rebring it back to the public

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Speaker 1: markets at a higher valuation to make money on that.

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Speaker 1: It seems very unlikely he's gonna be able to do that.

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Speaker 1: It seems to me like even if he just has

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Speaker 1: thirty and billion dollars of his personal wealth in it,

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Speaker 1: that seems like a lot of money. But maybe I'm stupid.

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Speaker 1: Can he just afford to do this? Well, it sounds

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Speaker 1: like he's got a lot more than than thirteen billions,

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Speaker 1: So if he paid forty four billion, he's got thirteen

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Speaker 1: billion in debt on it. Okay, that that that basically

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Speaker 1: you know he's on the hook for he owns it,

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Speaker 1: right and then you know, so then all the equity

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Speaker 1: he has been selling stock in Teslas share, So think

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Speaker 1: about where he gets his money, right, So he was like,

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Speaker 1: he's supposedly the richest man in the world. Um, a

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Speaker 1: lot of his wealth has been tied up in Tesla,

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Speaker 1: which a publicly traded stock. It has a six billion

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Speaker 1: dollar market cap, which is one of the largest market

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Speaker 1: cap companies in the US, just to be really clear,

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Speaker 1: but it's also down fifty percent from where it was

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Speaker 1: trading a year ago, all right, And he also has

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Speaker 1: a lot of his wealth tied up in SpaceX that's

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Speaker 1: the rocket company, right, But that is a private company,

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Speaker 1: so he doesn't have liquidity there. So if he wants

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Speaker 1: to go out and spend millions or billions, he's as

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Speaker 1: he either has to sell stock in those companies or

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Speaker 1: pledge shares of that okay, to to basically get the

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Speaker 1: money to do things. But the Teslas stock goes much

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Speaker 1: lower than the value of the of his assets goes

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Speaker 1: much lower, So he's really tied to the markets. He's

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Speaker 1: really levered here. And just you know, if you think

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Speaker 1: about everything that's going on right now, when you have

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Speaker 1: interest rates go up as quickly as they've had, why

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Speaker 1: has crypto and bitcoin all this stuff just created? Why

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Speaker 1: How are we starting to see some of this corporate

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Speaker 1: mouthfeasans this stuff where people weren't I'm sure, I'm sure

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Speaker 1: Back Reenfield spent a lot of time talking about, you know,

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Speaker 1: this FTX situation in the crypto world right right now,

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Speaker 1: there was no really good due diligence done on a

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Speaker 1: lot of stuff, and the cult of personality of some

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Speaker 1: of these founders, people like Elon, people like this SPF

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Speaker 1: and f t X, people like this woman homes from

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Speaker 1: their knows where you have really smart people just throwing

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Speaker 1: money at them and not asking the hard questions. In

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Speaker 1: periods like this, you know what I mean, This is

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Speaker 1: when you see a lot of the frauds, the phonies,

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Speaker 1: and and you know, you see it exposed. And I

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Speaker 1: think we're seeing that. There's a lot of people who

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Speaker 1: think that Ellen, while he's not a fraud like some

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Speaker 1: of these other financial frauds, his company is very overvalued. Well,

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Speaker 1: they think, well, the company has ever valued. And the

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Speaker 1: reason in which people are willing to value the company

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Speaker 1: Tesla in particular, is because they think he's the smartest

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Speaker 1: guy in the world and he's going to do something fabulous.

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Speaker 1: And he's already done something fabulous. Okay, he's moved the

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Speaker 1: electric vehicle business, and I don't compliment them too frequently.

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Speaker 1: You know, he's moved all of these incumbents, whether it

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Speaker 1: be Detroit, whether it be the Germans, whether it be

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Speaker 1: the Japanese or the Koreans, they've moved them. He's moved

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Speaker 1: them to a place where they probably wouldn't have been

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Speaker 1: on their own, moving cars to you know, to be

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Speaker 1: you know, fully electric fleets at some point. I don't

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Speaker 1: a lot of these guys say by you know, twenty

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Speaker 1: thirty or something like that. So he's done that. But

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Speaker 1: does this company deserve to have a six und a

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Speaker 1: billion dollar market cap because I don't really think so.

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Speaker 1: At the end of the day, it's just going to

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Speaker 1: be a car company when every other company is just

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Speaker 1: making electric vehicles. Yeah, that's what I think too, Dan Nathan,

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Speaker 1: please come back. I will, Thanks, Mom, I appreciate you

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Speaker 1: having me. Congressman made Jones represents New York sevent Congressional District.

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Speaker 1: Welcome too Fast Politics, Congressman Mondair, It's good to be back.

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Speaker 1: We're so happy to have you for any number of reasons,

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Speaker 1: but the first of which is, so, do you want

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Speaker 1: to tell listeners for the people who are not like

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Speaker 1: extreme congressional junkies, what the midterms have brought to you.

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Speaker 1: The midterms have resulted in the salvaging of our democracy

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Speaker 1: at least for a few more years. Yes, that is

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Speaker 1: the good news. But in New York it's been kind

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Speaker 1: of what we say on this podcast, because we can

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Speaker 1: curse a ship show. Oh I'm so glad, I concurse

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Speaker 1: New York's ree district. Thing has been a disaster, and

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Speaker 1: no one wants to take responsibility for the margin that Republicans,

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Speaker 1: the Anti Democratic Party, the Anti Democracy Party has in

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Speaker 1: the House of Representatives can be explained by the number

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Speaker 1: of seats that flipped Republican in the state of New

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Speaker 1: York because of a gerrymander that was struck down by

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Speaker 1: the New York Court of Appeals. We had an independent

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Speaker 1: reditioning commission here that could have handled things far better

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Speaker 1: than what the Democratic legislature did, and of course, the

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Speaker 1: fact that the lines had to change at all was

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Speaker 1: the result of Andrew Cuomo, a deal he cut in

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Speaker 1: twenty twelve when many of us were still in high school.

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Speaker 1: I mean, not May and maybe not you, but many

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Speaker 1: other men. You know. Anyway, so go on, yes, well,

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Speaker 1: Andrew Cuomo is the reason why we even had to

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Speaker 1: lose a congressional seat in the state of New York,

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Speaker 1: because we only lost it by eighty nine folks who

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Speaker 1: simply did not complete the census. And that was can

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Speaker 1: be explained by the fact that he did not disperse

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Speaker 1: many millions of dollars, tens of millions of dollars for

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Speaker 1: purposes of census collection. So there's a lot of blame

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Speaker 1: to go around. So anyway, what happened with the redistricting

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Speaker 1: was Sean Patrick Maloney, who was the chair of the

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Speaker 1: D Triple C right, yes, um, he decided he would

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Speaker 1: take what was half of your district and run there.

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Speaker 1: He lost. The district that he ran in is a

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Speaker 1: district that I currently represent seventy percent of. And I

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Speaker 1: had a choice, as you know, Molly, I could have

431
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Speaker 1: run against the chair of the D. Trip will see

432
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,879
Speaker 1: the the guy whose primary job responsibility it is to

433
00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,080
Speaker 1: help us keep our majority in the House and and

434
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:50,560
Speaker 1: defeat fadgism in this country. And I never imagined that

435
00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:54,360
Speaker 1: after taking one for the team, that the gentleman from

436
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 1: New York's eighteenth Congressional district would lose in New York seventeenth,

437
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,280
Speaker 1: a district that I would have won. Um, so you

438
00:22:00,280 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 1: can imagine how I feel right now. But you know,

439
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,160
Speaker 1: the good news is we did keep the center. Wait,

440
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,400
Speaker 1: how do you feel right now? Because I'm thinking about

441
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,480
Speaker 1: it and I was thinking how what I feel? I

442
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 1: don't know. How do you feel? Do you feel like

443
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 1: vindicated or do you just feel devastated? No, vindicated feels petty, right.

444
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 1: I never imagined, after having been a leading, highly effective

445
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:24,439
Speaker 1: member in the United States Congress for the past two years,

446
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:28,080
Speaker 1: that I would wake up one morning and because of

447
00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 1: the incompetence of so many people, there's a lot of

448
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:37,879
Speaker 1: blame to go around be made, uh, to you know,

449
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 1: make this impossible choice and not be allowed to continue

450
00:22:41,960 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 1: serving the community that raised me and that I have

451
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:48,199
Speaker 1: been delivering for. And so I'm just sad, frankly by

452
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:52,160
Speaker 1: the outcome and by the knowledge that Democrats would have

453
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 1: the majority in the House of Representatives, and we would

454
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,960
Speaker 1: still be able to pass legislation for the next two

455
00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:02,879
Speaker 1: years were it not for the former governor of the

456
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:06,239
Speaker 1: State of New York, leaders and the state legislature, the

457
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 1: chair of the D Triple c and some other federal

458
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 1: legislators who coordinated with the Chair of the D Triple

459
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:18,560
Speaker 1: City in terms of pushing a blatantly illegal partisan jerrymander

460
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 1: that was ultimately struck down by the Court of Appeals.

461
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:23,920
Speaker 1: I would have much preferred the maps that were drawn

462
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,880
Speaker 1: by the Independent Redistricting Commission. It certainly would have avoided

463
00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:29,560
Speaker 1: the impossible choice that I had to make. So let's

464
00:23:29,760 --> 00:23:35,639
Speaker 1: talk about ja Jacobs. J Jacobs is the chair of

465
00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party of the State of New York. Talk

466
00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 1: to me about J Jacobs. I don't know the guy.

467
00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:46,240
Speaker 1: He's the chair of the New York State Democratic Party.

468
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:50,880
Speaker 1: He runs summer camps. Yes what he that's I think

469
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:54,159
Speaker 1: that's what he's busy doing. Okay, yes, well, much has

470
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:57,840
Speaker 1: been made of his failure of leadership when it comes

471
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:03,120
Speaker 1: to not investing in an infrastructure that could have helped

472
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 1: Democrats hold onto and win seats in those seats that

473
00:24:08,560 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 1: were flipped. I mean four seats went were flipped to

474
00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:13,679
Speaker 1: Republican this cycle in the state of New York that

475
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:16,640
Speaker 1: could have been avoided, which is, by the way, will

476
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:22,160
Speaker 1: probably be the difference between a Democratic Congress and Republican Congress.

477
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:26,880
Speaker 1: Kathy Hokel performed much worse than she should have. I mean,

478
00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:30,720
Speaker 1: she lost in you know, my hometown county of Rockland,

479
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,159
Speaker 1: which is a county that Joe Biden won and that

480
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:35,639
Speaker 1: I won quite handily in two thousand twenty. You know,

481
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:40,960
Speaker 1: one wonders why, given this track record, which by the way,

482
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:44,960
Speaker 1: extends well beyond what just happened this cycle, that someone

483
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:48,119
Speaker 1: would be allowed to continue in this role. Right I've

484
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 1: worked in corporate America, I've worked in government. It is

485
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:55,720
Speaker 1: extraordinary because, as State Senator zonn orm I re mentioned

486
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 1: to political a few weeks ago, by what metric are

487
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:05,320
Speaker 1: we just success? Certainly not in terms of electoral victories, certainly,

488
00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 1: not in terms of fundraising, certainly, not in terms of infrastructure, certainly,

489
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 1: not in terms of cultivating a new generation. That is

490
00:25:13,760 --> 00:25:15,359
Speaker 1: really where a lot of the energy and the party

491
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 1: is right now. Because what we've got is not just

492
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 1: Mr Jacobs, Because I really do think that focusing on

493
00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:24,640
Speaker 1: him has distracted from a broader reckoning throughout the leadership

494
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:26,439
Speaker 1: of the party that needs to take place. It is

495
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:28,360
Speaker 1: certainly the case that many of these people are more

496
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 1: hostile to progressive than they are focused on defeating Republicans. Yeah,

497
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 1: that's a really good point. We're in this position. What

498
00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 1: can people in New York do? Is there a way

499
00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:43,159
Speaker 1: to sort of unravel this disaster in New York. And

500
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 1: it's funny because the two states where Democrats did the worst,

501
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:49,919
Speaker 1: our New York State, which has a very problematic Democratic Party,

502
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:54,919
Speaker 1: and Florida, which has almost no Democratic party structure infrastructure. First,

503
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:58,680
Speaker 1: I hope that there is an opportunity for the independent

504
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 1: Redistricting Commission to which job and redrawing the assembly maps.

505
00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 1: The court has ordered that the assembly maps in the state,

506
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:07,960
Speaker 1: but we've redrawn. I continue to believe in this independent

507
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:11,639
Speaker 1: reditioning commission rather than what we saw take place in

508
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 1: the state legislature this year, which got struck down by

509
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 1: the Court of Appeals. There also has to be new

510
00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 1: leadership at the at the level of party chair in

511
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:24,239
Speaker 1: New York State. And again I regret that, you know,

512
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 1: people feel personally attacked, but what this is really about

513
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:31,640
Speaker 1: is making sure that we have competency going into two

514
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 1: thousand twenty four. I also think that the leader needs

515
00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:36,840
Speaker 1: to be someone who brings people together. We have a

516
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:41,879
Speaker 1: beautifully diverse Democratic Party, uh and that includes ideologically. There

517
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 1: are plenty of folks who could bring people together. We've

518
00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 1: We've got a big tent. And I understand that what

519
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:51,200
Speaker 1: works up state doesn't always work in Brooklyn, for example.

520
00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:54,879
Speaker 1: I know that well. But the fact is we have

521
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:59,359
Speaker 1: to create room for the talent that tends to be

522
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 1: younger and oftentimes, though not always, is progressive in this party.

523
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:07,880
Speaker 1: There has to be room for everybody if we are

524
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 1: to defend and strengthen our democracy, protect fundamental rights, and

525
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 1: build an economy that works for everybody. But that means

526
00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 1: winning elections. It does not mean Eric Adams validating the

527
00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:22,639
Speaker 1: hysteria over crime that exists. I live in the Hudson

528
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:25,879
Speaker 1: Valley right so, Rockland County is the third safest county

529
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 1: in the entire United States. According to the US News,

530
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:31,720
Speaker 1: Westchester is the fourth safest county in the entire United

531
00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 1: States of America. You would never know it based on

532
00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 1: the campaigns that Hudson Valley Republicans are running. By the way. Platinum,

533
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 1: I think is number twelve, twelfth safest county in the

534
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:45,320
Speaker 1: entire United States. So we can talk about the problem

535
00:27:45,359 --> 00:27:49,480
Speaker 1: of crime, which is a problem, without being reactionary and

536
00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 1: validating the misinformation and disinformation that we see Republicans pushing. Unfortunately,

537
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:59,920
Speaker 1: we don't see that from Eric Adams and others who

538
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,359
Speaker 1: are afraid to lead on this subject. So talk to

539
00:28:03,359 --> 00:28:06,960
Speaker 1: me about this lame duck because there's an opportunity to

540
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 1: do a bunch of really important things in the lame duck.

541
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:12,359
Speaker 1: Talk to me about what you think will happen in

542
00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 1: order to prevent the government from shutting down or to

543
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 1: make that less likely. And Congress, which will take shape

544
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:21,919
Speaker 1: in early January next year, we've got to raise the

545
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:26,440
Speaker 1: debt ceiling. We cannot continue to allow Republicans who are

546
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:29,159
Speaker 1: not interested in and I don't think of government they

547
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:34,199
Speaker 1: wanted to right which they luckily they don't, from taking

548
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 1: the government hostage. And so we can do that through reconciliation,

549
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 1: which is a process that may be familiar to folks.

550
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:42,000
Speaker 1: That's how we were going to pass Build Back Better

551
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 1: through the Senate. It's it's how we pass the Inflation

552
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 1: Reduction Act. This year in August that historic legislation to

553
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 1: lower costs for our seniors on Medicare and to invest

554
00:28:51,400 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 1: in climate action. And we still got an opportunity to

555
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,040
Speaker 1: do that, and there's an appetite to do that, so

556
00:28:56,200 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 1: I hope that we take care of that. There's also

557
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 1: a lot of discussion about things that we can include

558
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,440
Speaker 1: in the n d a A, which is something we

559
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:06,160
Speaker 1: pass on a on an annual basis. Can we put

560
00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:09,400
Speaker 1: voting rights in there? Can we put Supreme Court reforms

561
00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 1: in there? Like ethics reforms. That's what I'm pushing for

562
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:15,239
Speaker 1: right now. Right, No, that makes sense. Where are you

563
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 1: on this leadership election? Talked to me. I get to

564
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 1: sit in the chair and just observe so so many

565
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 1: of these races I have already been decided as of

566
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:31,880
Speaker 1: you know, a few hours ago, deals were being struck.

567
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:34,840
Speaker 1: I think Nancy Pelosi and I know that there are

568
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 1: some leftists who are who are going to be upset

569
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 1: with me. Is the most effective Speaker of the House

570
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:44,080
Speaker 1: in modern history and quite possibly in the history of

571
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 1: this country. I say that as someone who has had

572
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:50,240
Speaker 1: a very good seat at the table as the youngest

573
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 1: member of House leadership and has seen how she has

574
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 1: pushed through the president's broadly popular economic agenda and has

575
00:29:58,280 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 1: done battle with some of the most conservative obstructionist voices

576
00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 1: in the Democratic Party. It is interesting to me that

577
00:30:06,720 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 1: so many folks on Twitter are and have been calling

578
00:30:11,760 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 1: for her to step down and to turn things over

579
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 1: over to a new generation. I wonder how those people

580
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:25,719
Speaker 1: will feel if her successor is not as accommodating of

581
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 1: progressive voices as she has been. That's a really interesting point.

582
00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 1: That is the thing we saw a lot was that,

583
00:30:32,720 --> 00:30:36,440
Speaker 1: you know, she tried very hard to bring people together

584
00:30:36,640 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 1: from different parts of the Democratic Party. That's exactly right.

585
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 1: And it's been tough, and it's been frustrating. And I

586
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 1: had not agreed with every decision policy wise and tactically

587
00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:50,240
Speaker 1: that the Speaker has made. But I have seen her

588
00:30:50,280 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 1: push for broad reforms in the child care space and

589
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:57,960
Speaker 1: in other spaces. When we had that major debate over

590
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 1: built Back Better and the bipartisan in for extra bill

591
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 1: almost a year ago to the day. You know, she

592
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 1: also when Rob Emmanuel, the former chief of staff for

593
00:31:07,240 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 1: Barack Obama, you know, was trying to move on from

594
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:14,720
Speaker 1: or or or pivot away from Obamacare, and then tried

595
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:16,479
Speaker 1: to water it down. I mean, she was the one

596
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 1: who pushed for an aggressive piece of legislation that would

597
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 1: really expand healthcare to tens of millions of people in

598
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,560
Speaker 1: this country. I'm a student of history, so I'm aware

599
00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,440
Speaker 1: of these things even before having served in Congress for myself,

600
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,480
Speaker 1: and I encourage people to educate themselves. That's a really

601
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 1: good point, you know. I'm sure you've read that article

602
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 1: about her whipping votes and having the person's cousin called

603
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 1: them and the ed secretary. You know that's a certain

604
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:43,959
Speaker 1: kind of I mean, I don't know, there's a certain

605
00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:49,200
Speaker 1: thing about her, Molly that isn't that's nothing. I read

606
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 1: that too, and I'm like that that's the best story

607
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:57,600
Speaker 1: you've got. Really, you saw, You've seen more persuasive persuading

608
00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 1: from Nancy Pelosi. Please share. I would just say that

609
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 1: the Speaker knows where all the bodies are buried, right,

610
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 1: and she's got she's got relationships with so many members

611
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 1: of our caucus spanning decades, and so what Tom Parry

612
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 1: Yellow was described in that article as having experienced was

613
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 1: one of the more muted persuasion. That's amazing. Thank you

614
00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 1: so much for joining us man, dare I just build

615
00:32:26,280 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 1: water all over my desk, as I often do during

616
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:32,040
Speaker 1: this podcast. But you were great and I really appreciate

617
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 1: you coming on. Thanks for having me on. Rick Klein

618
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 1: is ABC news is political director. Welcome to Fast Politics,

619
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 1: Rick Clyde, thanks for having me. Excited to be here.

620
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 1: We're thrilled to have you. The thing I really want

621
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:48,720
Speaker 1: to talk about, which I feel like we haven't talked

622
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 1: about it enough, if that makes any sense, is are

623
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 1: you were you shocked by those midterm results? No? I

624
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:58,600
Speaker 1: was surprised, I would say, not shocked. One reason I

625
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 1: wasn't shocked is that only was actually kind of right

626
00:33:01,720 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 1: this time. And okay, so talk about that, Mark, Yeah, So,

627
00:33:05,320 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 1: I mean we we did pulling it at ABC News

628
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 1: with the Washington Post showed it to be I think

629
00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 1: a one point edge for Republicans on the generic ballot,

630
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 1: leaned heavily into state polling, and you know, the out

631
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:17,920
Speaker 1: of partners at five thirty eight. We're doing a lot

632
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,080
Speaker 1: of work on this and they basically had it as

633
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 1: a coin flip for the Senate with a lot of

634
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:25,479
Speaker 1: coin flip races. Ultimately, Republicans did get a little bit

635
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 1: of an edge in the generic ballot and a slight

636
00:33:27,320 --> 00:33:29,160
Speaker 1: edge that puts them over the top to win the House,

637
00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 1: and then the Senate came down about what we thought.

638
00:33:31,760 --> 00:33:34,520
Speaker 1: So there were individual results that certainly surprised me, maybe

639
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 1: even shocked me. I was. I was extremely surprised that

640
00:33:36,680 --> 00:33:39,440
Speaker 1: she saw Patrick Maloney lose in New York. I was

641
00:33:39,720 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 1: very surprised, frankly that Catherine cortest Masto pulled it out

642
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 1: in Nevada because she had been down. But John Rosten,

643
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 1: I know, I should have learned the lessons. So so,

644
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 1: you know, way back in, way back in two when

645
00:33:51,280 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 1: everyone thought that Harry Reid was was definitely gonna lose,

646
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 1: I remember making a bet with my friend John Berman

647
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:58,560
Speaker 1: as part of our digital coverage. I just said, I'm

648
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 1: gonna go with Ralston. I don't care what anyone else says.

649
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:01,920
Speaker 1: And he was one of the only people that said

650
00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 1: that Reid would hang on, and he did. So I

651
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 1: should have learned that lesson. People got it right. It

652
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 1: just you know, in the aggregate, I think that we

653
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:10,800
Speaker 1: we were expecting something different for a couple of reasons.

654
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 1: One is inflation. Yeah, every historical indicator for president's first

655
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:17,839
Speaker 1: midterm with inflation double digits, with the president approval rating

656
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 1: in the high thirties, lower forties. It's a wipeout. And

657
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 1: the other thing, frankly, is I don't think we fully

658
00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 1: believe the polls because we knew that they had been

659
00:34:26,160 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 1: wrong before. So I think in our heads, even if

660
00:34:28,640 --> 00:34:30,439
Speaker 1: it wasn't explicit, I think in our heads, we saw

661
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:33,719
Speaker 1: forty eight in the race and thought, okay, tie goes

662
00:34:33,760 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 1: to the runner. You know, Republicans are gonna win that

663
00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 1: by a couple of points. And we thought that across

664
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 1: the board. And so again that's that's why, you know,

665
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 1: surprised but not shocked. I think we were pretty honest

666
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 1: with our audience about the fact that this was a

667
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:47,360
Speaker 1: very close race and it could go either way, and

668
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 1: there were extraordinary forces in both sides. It wasn't just

669
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:53,000
Speaker 1: inflation and the president's first midterm. You had Rovy Wade

670
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:56,320
Speaker 1: being overturned. You had the insurrection and democracy being on

671
00:34:56,360 --> 00:34:58,360
Speaker 1: the ballot, and all of those things factored in different

672
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:01,440
Speaker 1: ways in different places. I wonder how much the lesson is. Like,

673
00:35:01,800 --> 00:35:04,600
Speaker 1: so we're talking about John Rawlstad. I think his paper

674
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:08,040
Speaker 1: is called The New Nevada Independent. Yeah, that's right, Independent. Yeah,

675
00:35:08,120 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 1: I want to talk about Nevada, because Nevada, we had

676
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 1: actually Cortez Masto on this podcast, and everyone I know,

677
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 1: and remember I know many more Democrats than Republicans, was like,

678
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 1: she is not going to win, and I want to

679
00:35:22,000 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 1: talk about that because Roasted said she's gonna win. And

680
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:27,560
Speaker 1: then when the votes came in, he said, people are

681
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:31,000
Speaker 1: not voting in person. These numbers are just have to

682
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:33,160
Speaker 1: be wrong. There has to be a huge number of

683
00:35:33,160 --> 00:35:35,759
Speaker 1: mail ins. And again all of us were like, well,

684
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:38,279
Speaker 1: maybe there is, maybe there isn't. And what I think

685
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 1: is interesting is like, in the end, it were it

686
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:45,759
Speaker 1: was a couple of unions, right, who pushed her over

687
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 1: the top, right, the food worker yeah, and the red machine. Right,

688
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:52,160
Speaker 1: it was you know, from the grave, Harry Reid's machine

689
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:55,440
Speaker 1: is still operational, and they put together away to win elections.

690
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:58,319
Speaker 1: And they took advantage of the fact that you can

691
00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:00,560
Speaker 1: bank a lot of votes before election day and focus

692
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 1: your organizing on election day on the most smaller, smaller universe,

693
00:36:03,719 --> 00:36:06,360
Speaker 1: I think Republicans. I talked to a bunch of Republicans

694
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:07,799
Speaker 1: and the run up to the election who were very

695
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:10,839
Speaker 1: heavy in their expectations. I asked one prominent Republican. I said,

696
00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 1: what's your fear not what could go along? And he said, well,

697
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:15,399
Speaker 1: our voters have to vote on election day. We think

698
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:18,000
Speaker 1: they're gonna, but they have to. And the Democrats have

699
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:20,319
Speaker 1: long since adopted the strategy of of trying to bank

700
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:22,239
Speaker 1: as maybe votes as possible and to organize. And I

701
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:24,600
Speaker 1: think that's in the Vada and elsewhere. Bank what you

702
00:36:24,640 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 1: can get it done and then focus on the rest.

703
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:30,400
Speaker 1: And Republicans have they have been doing that really up

704
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:32,880
Speaker 1: until Trump and Trump I think trashing the idea of

705
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,239
Speaker 1: really voting has set them back pretty considerably in terms

706
00:36:35,239 --> 00:36:37,760
Speaker 1: of that organizing. Yeah, I want to talk about that too,

707
00:36:37,840 --> 00:36:41,919
Speaker 1: because that is such an interesting situation and it has

708
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:46,240
Speaker 1: so it is so continually backfired for Trump. So Trump

709
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:48,920
Speaker 1: only believed in the same day voting. He had this

710
00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:52,759
Speaker 1: sort of anti voting bent in a way, right like

711
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:55,799
Speaker 1: mail and voting in sped You know, got to make

712
00:36:55,840 --> 00:36:59,160
Speaker 1: sure don't trust the system. But I do think ultimately

713
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:02,800
Speaker 1: like this message don't trust the system, it leads people

714
00:37:02,840 --> 00:37:04,640
Speaker 1: to not trust the system. The problem is if you

715
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,320
Speaker 1: don't trust the system, you don't vote. Yeah, and that

716
00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 1: we saw it directly in Georgia and the runoffs early

717
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 1: last year. And I think in this case, you had

718
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 1: a lot of states that have even before COVID made

719
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:16,919
Speaker 1: it a lot easier to vote early vote that since

720
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:18,839
Speaker 1: he there's other ways to do it. We had long

721
00:37:18,920 --> 00:37:22,640
Speaker 1: since been just a purely election day society, you know.

722
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:23,920
Speaker 1: I think it was something like a third of the

723
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 1: vote was early even before COVID, And then COVID accelerated

724
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,040
Speaker 1: a lot of those trends, and states changed their laws

725
00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 1: and made available other options. And people want to vote

726
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 1: when it's convenient to vote. And if you're banking everything

727
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 1: on you know, I'm old enough to remember when you

728
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 1: know that the seventy two hour program that the Republicans

729
00:37:38,600 --> 00:37:40,840
Speaker 1: had in two thousand four, which was all about getting

730
00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:42,759
Speaker 1: people out on election day, and Karl Rove had this

731
00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 1: system and he was able to get it done and

732
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 1: get George W. Bush over the top with people voting

733
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 1: on election day. That's great for its time, but the

734
00:37:49,560 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 1: laws have moved on, people's customs have moved on, and

735
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 1: lots of states there's a huge amount of the vote

736
00:37:54,680 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 1: that happens early. Take Arizona, nine or so of the

737
00:37:57,719 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 1: vote they're going into election that we expected it to

738
00:37:59,880 --> 00:38:02,719
Speaker 1: be early or mail in or some version of of absentee,

739
00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 1: and you had a can that didn't carry Lake, who

740
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:08,359
Speaker 1: was trashing the idea of of early voting, even though

741
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 1: she said, you know, vote however you want. She said

742
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 1: that she wants to have an election day society. They

743
00:38:12,560 --> 00:38:15,239
Speaker 1: were banking on people to vote on election day, and

744
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:17,480
Speaker 1: they did, and that's one reason it took so long,

745
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:20,279
Speaker 1: but not enough for them, didn't, right, I know that

746
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:23,280
Speaker 1: was and now you have carry Lake going. These people

747
00:38:23,320 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 1: had to wait for hours and hours on election day.

748
00:38:25,560 --> 00:38:28,719
Speaker 1: But why you know, right exactly? I mean, I think,

749
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:30,239
Speaker 1: I think, and you're seeing it in some of the

750
00:38:30,239 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 1: statements that Republicans are putting out after the fact, the

751
00:38:32,120 --> 00:38:34,799
Speaker 1: ones who are losing, including Blake Masters in Arizona saying,

752
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:36,839
Speaker 1: you know, we've got to wake up to the way

753
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 1: that the system is built. Either change the system or

754
00:38:39,840 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 1: catch up to the way that people are living their

755
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 1: lives and are actually voting right now. And you know what,

756
00:38:44,400 --> 00:38:47,600
Speaker 1: in Florida, Rhonda Santis banked a huge amount of early vote.

757
00:38:47,640 --> 00:38:49,920
Speaker 1: He didn't care about the Trump trashing of it. They

758
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 1: banked it and they you could see it in the

759
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:53,200
Speaker 1: numbers early on that it was going to be a blowout,

760
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:55,440
Speaker 1: and in fact it was. There are ways to do this,

761
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:58,560
Speaker 1: it's just Trump has made it hard. Yeah, Blake Masters

762
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 1: is terrifying racist, and I think the reason why he

763
00:39:02,160 --> 00:39:05,239
Speaker 1: didn't win was he was a terrible candidate. I don't know.

764
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:08,399
Speaker 1: I just think with Blake Masters, like he had had

765
00:39:08,440 --> 00:39:11,400
Speaker 1: all these ads that were like him shooting guns. I

766
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 1: don't know that that is a relatable swing state message,

767
00:39:15,680 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 1: like you know, civil war. And I think what I

768
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:20,560
Speaker 1: thought was so interesting about Blake Masters. And I say

769
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:22,879
Speaker 1: this as someone who was married to a VC so

770
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:25,279
Speaker 1: even though we're on the East Coast, I have lived

771
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:28,000
Speaker 1: in a world where I've always thought of technology as

772
00:39:28,080 --> 00:39:30,399
Speaker 1: like a thing that we'll solve our problems. But what

773
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:32,840
Speaker 1: I saw with Blake Masters was this is a person

774
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 1: with a you know, some of these Silicon Valley people

775
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:39,279
Speaker 1: have very dark visions for this country. We live in

776
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 1: a fifty fifty country and a lot of fifty fifty states,

777
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:45,239
Speaker 1: and there's a lot of voters that just vote Team

778
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:48,160
Speaker 1: Read or Team Blue, and they look beyond the individual

779
00:39:48,360 --> 00:39:50,920
Speaker 1: candidates and do that now at the margins, it makes

780
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:53,319
Speaker 1: a difference, and that's where I think. Look, Arizona I

781
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,319
Speaker 1: think was a winnable race for Republicans at the Senate level. Man,

782
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 1: I think Georgia was definitely a winnable race for Republicans

783
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:01,239
Speaker 1: at the at level. Look at how many people voted

784
00:40:01,280 --> 00:40:03,200
Speaker 1: for their candidate for governor. At the same time, I'm

785
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 1: not convinced that voters simply rejected the Republican candidates. In

786
00:40:08,160 --> 00:40:10,560
Speaker 1: some part they did, but I think also the tactics

787
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:12,640
Speaker 1: of getting people to vote early and getting people to

788
00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:14,840
Speaker 1: engage in this election had to happen as well. People.

789
00:40:15,040 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 1: This is a self evident statement, but people have to

790
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 1: vote for any of that stuff that you just said

791
00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:21,279
Speaker 1: to matter, right, even if someone is an awful human

792
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:24,719
Speaker 1: being in every conceivable way, election day and and it's

793
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:27,200
Speaker 1: run up has to feature people actually voting against that

794
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:29,400
Speaker 1: person for that person to lose. That's how the system works.

795
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:32,719
Speaker 1: And that's that's where the tactics I think are. You know,

796
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:35,319
Speaker 1: Republicans are now fighting with the hand tied behind their

797
00:40:35,320 --> 00:40:38,360
Speaker 1: backs if they're not able to encourage people to vote early,

798
00:40:38,440 --> 00:40:41,640
Speaker 1: because it just plane works as a as an organizing strategy,

799
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:43,959
Speaker 1: and you go into election day with with less less

800
00:40:43,960 --> 00:40:45,760
Speaker 1: ground to make up. And I and we can rerun

801
00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 1: the election a million times and come up with different,

802
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:51,120
Speaker 1: different outcomes. But even if everything you say about Blake

803
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:54,279
Speaker 1: Masters is true, voters had to actually do something about it,

804
00:40:54,360 --> 00:40:56,840
Speaker 1: and they do it by voting, and they're vote in

805
00:40:56,840 --> 00:40:59,200
Speaker 1: different ways than they used to and Donald Trump's vision

806
00:40:59,200 --> 00:41:01,319
Speaker 1: of the world than they right now, right, I mean,

807
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:04,319
Speaker 1: I guess, I don't know. I still think like if

808
00:41:04,320 --> 00:41:07,919
Speaker 1: you run someone who's not terribly creepy, people will vote

809
00:41:07,920 --> 00:41:11,439
Speaker 1: for them. There was a fundamental disconnect there. I want

810
00:41:11,480 --> 00:41:15,760
Speaker 1: to get into this idea of what the House looks

811
00:41:15,800 --> 00:41:19,960
Speaker 1: like now because we have this really, I mean, historically,

812
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 1: this is the narrowest house margin in modern political history, yes,

813
00:41:25,680 --> 00:41:27,760
Speaker 1: or now likely to be. I mean, you know, we

814
00:41:27,760 --> 00:41:30,439
Speaker 1: we have it at to eighteen to to twenty range

815
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:32,960
Speaker 1: from the majority and the Democrats just you know, they're

816
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 1: out going Congress was thirteen, so it's not going to

817
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 1: be that much different from that. But but it's gonna

818
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,440
Speaker 1: be pretty pretty garny close. And for you know, party

819
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:44,279
Speaker 1: coming in and for all of the expectations you know,

820
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:47,000
Speaker 1: as you know, politics is often a game of expectations,

821
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 1: and they really fell short on the expectations piece of it.

822
00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:52,759
Speaker 1: And we know the nature of what this majority is.

823
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:56,560
Speaker 1: And we know that that Kevin McCarthy is the presumptive leader,

824
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:58,160
Speaker 1: who doesn't even have the votes as of now to

825
00:41:58,239 --> 00:42:00,759
Speaker 1: get to become the House Speaker, and he's going to have,

826
00:42:01,320 --> 00:42:04,319
Speaker 1: you know, so little margin for maneuvering that he could

827
00:42:04,320 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 1: be potentially ousted anytime. So a Democrats said to me

828
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:09,240
Speaker 1: the other day, you know, it might be that becoming

829
00:42:09,280 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 1: the Republican House Speakers like being a British Prime minister

830
00:42:11,760 --> 00:42:14,680
Speaker 1: these days, revolving door is going to start. It's gonna

831
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:17,880
Speaker 1: start swinging. That would be really really fun. Think about

832
00:42:17,920 --> 00:42:20,719
Speaker 1: what a two twenty or two nineteen majority means. I mean,

833
00:42:21,040 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 1: members of Congress find other jobs, they pass away like

834
00:42:25,120 --> 00:42:27,800
Speaker 1: it's possible that sometime in the next Congress the power

835
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:31,839
Speaker 1: control shifts. As crazy as that is, And actually Jesse

836
00:42:32,000 --> 00:42:35,560
Speaker 1: and I were talking about this, every special election could

837
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:38,080
Speaker 1: shift the power of the House. Yeah, that's why, I mean,

838
00:42:38,080 --> 00:42:39,919
Speaker 1: they're going to do everything they can to convince people

839
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:41,520
Speaker 1: not to not to leave. I think that's actually one

840
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 1: reason that Pelosi, Horrier and Library are all sticking around.

841
00:42:44,120 --> 00:42:46,520
Speaker 1: They don't want to give Recarthia extra votes. Right, It's

842
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 1: it is that close but how McCarthy governs in that

843
00:42:50,120 --> 00:42:52,120
Speaker 1: I mean, being in the minority, you can do a

844
00:42:52,120 --> 00:42:55,439
Speaker 1: lot just with investigations and with you know, just being

845
00:42:55,480 --> 00:42:58,200
Speaker 1: what the other guys aren't. But ultimately he's going to

846
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 1: have to get teen votes for things, and sometimes that's

847
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:04,600
Speaker 1: gonna be things that not everyone likes on the Republican side.

848
00:43:04,719 --> 00:43:06,880
Speaker 1: And that's gonna be where you see the real power

849
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:09,920
Speaker 1: of a small band, which could be the moderate side,

850
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:12,560
Speaker 1: it could be the Maga side, it could be any

851
00:43:12,600 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 1: any group of Republicans who feel emboldened. And Kevin McCarthy,

852
00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:17,719
Speaker 1: you know, he's got a reputation. I've done it for

853
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 1: a long time. He's he kind of likes being everyone's friend,

854
00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:21,240
Speaker 1: and this is not a job where you make friends.

855
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:23,440
Speaker 1: Asked Nancy Pelosi about that. I'm going to add in

856
00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 1: my own partisanship here. He's also an abject moron, so

857
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:29,520
Speaker 1: that could be problematic for him, but I guess he does.

858
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:32,759
Speaker 1: But I know people like him speaking of people who

859
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 1: people don't like. Representative Andy Biggs this morning at gets

860
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 1: on Twitter. I've seen enough I can of vote for

861
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:43,319
Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker. I do not believe he

862
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:45,160
Speaker 1: will get to to e T and I refuse to

863
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:48,480
Speaker 1: assist him in this effort to get those votes discuss.

864
00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:50,919
Speaker 1: I don't believe him. Matt Gates is saying the same things.

865
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 1: I've seen things like this playoff before, and Nancy Pelosi

866
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:56,600
Speaker 1: had to herself piece together the votes after some self

867
00:43:56,640 --> 00:44:02,280
Speaker 1: election cycles. Ultimately, if the alternative is making a making

868
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:06,399
Speaker 1: hockeym Jeffreys Speaker of the House, then then they're gonna

869
00:44:06,480 --> 00:44:09,000
Speaker 1: vote for Kevin McCarthy. There's gonna be deals cut, there's

870
00:44:09,000 --> 00:44:10,879
Speaker 1: gonna be people that hold their nose, there'll be people

871
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:13,080
Speaker 1: voting present. So I mean, there's all kinds of like

872
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:15,239
Speaker 1: side things that can happen to make it work. But

873
00:44:15,320 --> 00:44:18,479
Speaker 1: I I just don't see a viable alternative. And Andie Biggs,

874
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:20,719
Speaker 1: who just tried to be that alternative, you know, a

875
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,359
Speaker 1: couple dozen votes, you know, and I think ultimately he'll

876
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:25,720
Speaker 1: get there. It's gonna be messy, it's gonna be ugly,

877
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:29,000
Speaker 1: and he may lose it. I think he gets there.

878
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 1: And I think the Bigges and the Gates is of

879
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 1: the woman. Ultimately, you know, if they don't vote for him,

880
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:35,960
Speaker 1: they know that voting against him isn't gonna stop him

881
00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:38,719
Speaker 1: from becoming speaker because there really is no alternative. And

882
00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:40,000
Speaker 1: I don't say that lightly. It's not just that there

883
00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:42,640
Speaker 1: isn't another person out there. The way the mechanics work

884
00:44:42,719 --> 00:44:44,680
Speaker 1: is the Democrats put up a candidate, the Republicans put

885
00:44:44,719 --> 00:44:46,920
Speaker 1: up a candidate, and one of them is going to

886
00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:49,920
Speaker 1: get a majority, and you want your team to win. Ultimately,

887
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:52,719
Speaker 1: they'd rather have McCarthy than than Jeffreys hundred day out

888
00:44:52,719 --> 00:44:55,319
Speaker 1: of a hundred. Right, no, no, no question. I don't

889
00:44:55,320 --> 00:44:58,600
Speaker 1: know if you have this, but everyone I know, straight journalist,

890
00:44:58,760 --> 00:45:03,720
Speaker 1: opinion journalists, we all are having a lot of sort

891
00:45:03,760 --> 00:45:08,279
Speaker 1: of Donald Trump is back anxiety. Yeah. I think a

892
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:10,279
Speaker 1: lot of Republicans are having it. I think a lot

893
00:45:10,320 --> 00:45:12,960
Speaker 1: of Democrats are having it. You know, there's a feeling

894
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 1: we shouldn't talk about him because that will make him

895
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:17,640
Speaker 1: come true. There's a feeling that and you know he

896
00:45:17,719 --> 00:45:20,160
Speaker 1: lies a lot, so you don't want to promote the lies.

897
00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:24,440
Speaker 1: Is there a path to stopping this person from becoming,

898
00:45:25,040 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 1: you know, the European nominee? Because I don't see a

899
00:45:27,680 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 1: world where there is. I think a lot of things

900
00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 1: have to happen. And if you remember how he became nominee,

901
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:35,600
Speaker 1: the first time. You'll remember how messy it was, and

902
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:36,880
Speaker 1: it was a function of the fact that there were

903
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:39,440
Speaker 1: twenty different Republicans running and they were all, you know,

904
00:45:39,520 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 1: cannablyzing each other's votes, and he was winning with small amounts.

905
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:44,839
Speaker 1: I don't think he definitely loses. I also don't think

906
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:47,480
Speaker 1: he definitely wins. I think the path runs through the

907
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:51,719
Speaker 1: Republican primaries first and foremost, because right, but the primaries

908
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:56,560
Speaker 1: are already easier now. They're more consolidated, so they're easier

909
00:45:56,840 --> 00:46:00,640
Speaker 1: now to explain to me. Well, yes, there's some things

910
00:46:00,640 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 1: that make it easier to start running away with it

911
00:46:02,719 --> 00:46:05,160
Speaker 1: early on if you start listening some early victories. But

912
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:07,279
Speaker 1: there's so much of that's happen for then. I mean,

913
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:08,920
Speaker 1: this is what I thought about his announcement. I mean,

914
00:46:09,160 --> 00:46:11,080
Speaker 1: we are literally two years away from the election, like

915
00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:13,960
Speaker 1: we're gonna go through a whole other Thanksgiving and Christmas

916
00:46:14,040 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 1: and still no one will have voted next year, and

917
00:46:16,760 --> 00:46:20,200
Speaker 1: so there's a lot of baseball tweve And the big difference,

918
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:23,920
Speaker 1: you know, between this cycle and the last is that

919
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:25,879
Speaker 1: you know, we've been there and done that. On Donald Trump,

920
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:28,359
Speaker 1: he isn't the flashy new thing, and there are really

921
00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 1: appealing to Republicans other candidates out there. He's not going

922
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 1: to be alone in this primary. I'm convinced that. So

923
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:36,480
Speaker 1: let's just game this out for a minute, because I

924
00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:38,520
Speaker 1: agree he's not going to be alone in this primary.

925
00:46:38,560 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 1: Which is why I think he might win this primary.

926
00:46:41,719 --> 00:46:46,359
Speaker 1: Because he has this relationship with his base, right, like it.

927
00:46:46,440 --> 00:46:49,600
Speaker 1: Don't like it. He's like the grateful dad. Right. People

928
00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:53,000
Speaker 1: go to his concerts, they wear T shirts, they drive.

929
00:46:53,200 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 1: I mean, it may still be the same two thousand

930
00:46:56,040 --> 00:46:59,440
Speaker 1: people going to each one, but they go. So here's

931
00:46:59,480 --> 00:47:03,160
Speaker 1: my question for you. This guy has the die hard base, right.

932
00:47:03,239 --> 00:47:06,040
Speaker 1: So say you have Mike pens right, and you have

933
00:47:06,080 --> 00:47:10,200
Speaker 1: Mike Pompeio, and you have Ted Cruz, and you have Marco,

934
00:47:10,320 --> 00:47:12,680
Speaker 1: and you have this one, you have that one. Doesn't

935
00:47:12,719 --> 00:47:15,920
Speaker 1: Donald Trump? Then even isn't he even more likely to

936
00:47:15,920 --> 00:47:18,439
Speaker 1: win the primary? Of that depends on what the whole,

937
00:47:18,640 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 1: what the home makeup of it is, And I think, yeah,

938
00:47:20,320 --> 00:47:23,120
Speaker 1: it's if it's like twenty candidates again, and he's got

939
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:28,200
Speaker 1: his his band of of supporters or the party, then

940
00:47:28,320 --> 00:47:30,200
Speaker 1: then yeah, I think he's in a really good spot.

941
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:32,480
Speaker 1: But like you know, I'm not a music guy. So

942
00:47:32,480 --> 00:47:34,840
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna get this analogy wrong. But like grateful

943
00:47:34,920 --> 00:47:38,200
Speaker 1: Dud fans also like Dave Matthews band, right, Like, there's

944
00:47:38,239 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 1: there's other, there's other there's other music that might they

945
00:47:40,440 --> 00:47:42,239
Speaker 1: might want to groove to at some point. I don't

946
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:44,799
Speaker 1: think that that will be perceived as some disloyalty to Trump.

947
00:47:45,080 --> 00:47:47,200
Speaker 1: We've talked to a lot of Trump supporters at rallies

948
00:47:47,200 --> 00:47:48,840
Speaker 1: and around the country say I love the guy, but

949
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:52,360
Speaker 1: he's just too polarizing, or he's just two out there

950
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:54,359
Speaker 1: in the January six was too much, whatever, the thing

951
00:47:54,400 --> 00:47:56,560
Speaker 1: that's abridged too far. The people at his rallies are

952
00:47:56,560 --> 00:47:58,080
Speaker 1: the people those rallies, and I think you're right they

953
00:47:58,239 --> 00:48:00,799
Speaker 1: run through fire for him. But man, we talked to them.

954
00:48:00,800 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 1: They like Rhonda Santis a lot too, you know, and

955
00:48:03,040 --> 00:48:05,920
Speaker 1: and they could be talked into liking a lot of

956
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:08,640
Speaker 1: other people if there is a robust primary debate so

957
00:48:08,680 --> 00:48:10,839
Speaker 1: all of us. I'm not saying he can't win. We can,

958
00:48:11,080 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 1: but I'm not saying he definitely will. I I don't

959
00:48:13,000 --> 00:48:15,239
Speaker 1: think we can look to the last cycle to be

960
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:18,319
Speaker 1: instructive in any way, shape or form, just because it's

961
00:48:18,320 --> 00:48:20,880
Speaker 1: gonna be different. The issues will be different, the stakes

962
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:24,240
Speaker 1: will feel different, the pacing of the campaign will be different.

963
00:48:24,280 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 1: There's no modern precedent for a former president coming back

964
00:48:28,200 --> 00:48:30,120
Speaker 1: and trying to do this. The only even go back

965
00:48:30,120 --> 00:48:31,960
Speaker 1: to Teddy Roosevelt, and he ended up starting his own

966
00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:33,440
Speaker 1: party as a result of it. And we can't look

967
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:35,160
Speaker 1: at any piece of history to be instructive on this,

968
00:48:35,239 --> 00:48:37,279
Speaker 1: I think, including Trump's history. So I you know, I

969
00:48:37,280 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 1: think for liberals or even Republicans who are alarmed by

970
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:43,120
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, I say, then you know you're gonna have

971
00:48:43,160 --> 00:48:45,239
Speaker 1: your workout out for you. But I don't think there's

972
00:48:45,239 --> 00:48:47,480
Speaker 1: any inevitability around him, which, again, like a month or

973
00:48:47,480 --> 00:48:48,960
Speaker 1: two ago, might have been different. I think if this

974
00:48:49,040 --> 00:48:51,080
Speaker 1: was a better election cycle for him or his candidates,

975
00:48:51,280 --> 00:48:52,840
Speaker 1: maybe that would have been different. If it was a

976
00:48:52,880 --> 00:48:55,600
Speaker 1: worse election cycle for Rhonda Santis, maybe that would be different.

977
00:48:55,640 --> 00:48:57,680
Speaker 1: There will be other Rhonda Santis is over the over

978
00:48:57,719 --> 00:49:00,040
Speaker 1: the next you know, six to twelve months there that

979
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:01,760
Speaker 1: are going to emerge and it's going to be a battle.

980
00:49:01,800 --> 00:49:04,279
Speaker 1: And by the way, if he loses the battle, I

981
00:49:04,320 --> 00:49:07,000
Speaker 1: don't know many Republicans who think he's just gonna, you know,

982
00:49:07,120 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 1: quietly concede and fade away and endorse the new nominee.

983
00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:13,560
Speaker 1: I mean, that could be a real disaster for Republicans

984
00:49:13,680 --> 00:49:16,200
Speaker 1: if he if he loses and doesn't accept it and

985
00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 1: tries to burn the party down on his way out.

986
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:20,239
Speaker 1: He was close to vaulting the party after January six,

987
00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:21,920
Speaker 1: and if he loses this time, or I mean may

988
00:49:21,920 --> 00:49:24,200
Speaker 1: have done it if he lost the primer, and so

989
00:49:24,239 --> 00:49:26,080
Speaker 1: I think there's a lot that has to get figured

990
00:49:26,080 --> 00:49:28,560
Speaker 1: out before we're talking about him as a nominee. Thank

991
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:31,680
Speaker 1: you so much. That was great, Rick, Thank you, You're welcome,

992
00:49:31,880 --> 00:49:40,359
Speaker 1: my pleasure. Molly John Fast Jesse Cannon didn't take long

993
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:44,200
Speaker 1: for Kevin McCarthy to be influenced by the MTG wing

994
00:49:44,239 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 1: of the party. I thought, for a second, when it

995
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:52,040
Speaker 1: took Republicans so long to win the House, I think

996
00:49:52,040 --> 00:49:55,120
Speaker 1: there's still at like to eighteen. Maybe there's one more

997
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:57,399
Speaker 1: race being called. You know, they have the House by

998
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:04,400
Speaker 1: historically slim margin. I thought perhaps that might cause Republicans

999
00:50:04,520 --> 00:50:10,719
Speaker 1: to not act in the completely demented fashion I knew

1000
00:50:10,760 --> 00:50:15,880
Speaker 1: they would, but humiliates for them, I mean, you got it.

1001
00:50:16,080 --> 00:50:19,600
Speaker 1: You know, it's the Marjorie Taylor Green caucus now and

1002
00:50:19,640 --> 00:50:24,840
Speaker 1: the MAGA Caucus controls what poor dumb Mike Kevin a

1003
00:50:25,000 --> 00:50:28,839
Speaker 1: k A Kevin McCarthy MTG is pulling the strings. And

1004
00:50:28,920 --> 00:50:32,400
Speaker 1: the first string she's going to Paul is, according to

1005
00:50:32,600 --> 00:50:36,720
Speaker 1: young Kevin, he's going to remove some of the friends

1006
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:39,319
Speaker 1: of this show, members of Congress who are friends of

1007
00:50:39,360 --> 00:50:42,719
Speaker 1: the show from their committees, including Eric swaltwell as well

1008
00:50:42,760 --> 00:50:46,840
Speaker 1: as Adam Schiff and Ilhan Omar. So he's already doesn't

1009
00:50:46,840 --> 00:50:50,719
Speaker 1: even have the gabble yet, not till January, but already

1010
00:50:51,280 --> 00:50:57,920
Speaker 1: he's planning ways to behave badly and stunts. MAGA is

1011
00:50:57,960 --> 00:51:01,560
Speaker 1: all about stunts, and Kevin will be performing lots of stunts.

1012
00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 1: And don't you think this is all about trying to

1013
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:07,200
Speaker 1: make it look like his party isn't as bad as

1014
00:51:07,239 --> 00:51:09,839
Speaker 1: it is that when we threw MTG out. He's now

1015
00:51:09,880 --> 00:51:13,240
Speaker 1: trying to pretend that somehow these Congress people are equivalent

1016
00:51:13,320 --> 00:51:16,000
Speaker 1: to it. Yeah, of course that's the whole idea. And

1017
00:51:16,480 --> 00:51:20,680
Speaker 1: he's trying to make a false equivalency and say that

1018
00:51:21,160 --> 00:51:24,560
Speaker 1: Adam Scheff is the same as Marjorie Taylor Green and

1019
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:29,120
Speaker 1: we all know that there is literally no parity. And

1020
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:34,080
Speaker 1: so for that, the simple, simple soon to be Speaker

1021
00:51:34,120 --> 00:51:36,640
Speaker 1: of the House, though for how long no one knows.

1022
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:41,640
Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy gets a hearty fuck you. That's it for

1023
00:51:41,680 --> 00:51:45,520
Speaker 1: this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday,

1024
00:51:45,520 --> 00:51:48,439
Speaker 1: and Friday to hear the best minds in politics makes

1025
00:51:48,480 --> 00:51:51,800
Speaker 1: sense of all this chaos. If you enjoyed what you've heard,

1026
00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 1: please send it to a friend and keep the conversation going.

1027
00:51:55,480 --> 00:52:00,200
Speaker 1: And again, thanks for listening. E