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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Too many people out there think

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Speaker 1: that Janet yellow and secretly knows exactly what she's going

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Speaker 1: to do about interest rates, and she just isn't telling us.

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Speaker 1: I think there's just a broad appreciation across the central

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Speaker 1: banking community that global growth momentum is slide. Everything I

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Speaker 1: learned as they had gone out the window here at

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Speaker 1: the moment with the zero rate highdea. But I don't

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Speaker 1: want to get to work up here. Bloomberg Surveillance your

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Speaker 1: link to the world of economics, finance, and investment. On

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Good Morning on Michael McKee along with Tom Keene.

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Speaker 1: It is seven AyL on Wall Street, six am in Cushing, Oklahoma,

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Speaker 1: where all that oil sitting in storage is worth more

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Speaker 1: than forty dollars of barrel. This morning, for the first

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Speaker 1: time since early December, oils rise following the dollars drop

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Speaker 1: this week, which follows a week of central bank maneuvering.

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Speaker 1: We will follow the threads today on Surveillance. The dollar

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Speaker 1: index actually a touch stronger today, but oil holding its

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Speaker 1: momentum from late yesterday. West Texas forty eight three cents

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Speaker 1: up one point six percent this morning Brent five up

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Speaker 1: one point seven percent. Stocks following oil highler higher. The

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Speaker 1: stock six hundred up a point right now, four tenths

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Speaker 1: of a percent. The docks is up by twenty points

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Speaker 1: two tents. Here in the U S. S and P

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Speaker 1: futures up six points, three tents of eight percent down

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Speaker 1: futures up forty four points, about three tents, and it's

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Speaker 1: a two tents game for nastacies. They are up nine

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Speaker 1: points right now. In the bond market, the ten year note.

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Speaker 1: You know what, bonds have really continued their declined throughout

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Speaker 1: the week. Tenure note you one point eight seven five

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Speaker 1: year at one point three six and eighty five basis

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Speaker 1: points for your two year note yield. You may not

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Speaker 1: have noticed, but natural gas prices UH, natural gas futures

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Speaker 1: prices up over the last ten days or so. Right

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Speaker 1: now dollar ninety four, even though Sunday is officially the

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Speaker 1: first day of spring. Why Well, for the answer, we're

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Speaker 1: gonna turn into Bloomberg. Meteorologist Rob Carol and trumb I

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Speaker 1: think I can safely say none of our listeners want

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Speaker 1: to hear this, but we have a major snowstorm possibly

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Speaker 1: coming our way in the northeast on the first page. Possibly, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's still not set in stone. And I can tell

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Speaker 1: you why. The computer models that have been coming into

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Speaker 1: earlier this morning have started to shift the track a

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Speaker 1: little bit further east. The U S model has had

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Speaker 1: that consistently. Now the international models are starting to lean

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Speaker 1: that way. So I think the big thing is we're

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Speaker 1: definitely gonna see some snow late. It's during the day's

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Speaker 1: Sunday into Monday. It's how much now Boston is going

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Speaker 1: to see it start Sunday afternoon, Lyn Monday morning, maybe

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Speaker 1: as much as four to eight inches for the Tri

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Speaker 1: state area. It starts around sunrise Sunday morning. It ends

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Speaker 1: early Monday morning, maybe as much as three to six inches.

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Speaker 1: But I think those numbers are gonna be a moving

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Speaker 1: target at least through the next twenty four hours. With

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Speaker 1: this storm, we're gonna get any snow in Washington, d C.

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Speaker 1: And they're gonna chet down again. No they're not. It's

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Speaker 1: just gonna be on the tail end of the storm.

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Speaker 1: There's gonna be a change over. They start his rain

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Speaker 1: tomorrow afternoon, change the wet snow tomorrow night, and end

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Speaker 1: his wet snow Sunday morning. The district may pick up

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Speaker 1: a slushy inch mainly on the grass, maybe as much

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Speaker 1: as one of three inches in Baltimore. But right now

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Speaker 1: I'm leaning towards the lower side of that scale. I

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Speaker 1: know we got a lot of models to sort through.

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Speaker 1: When do you think we have a consensus, Well, probably

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Speaker 1: by late today early tomorrow morning. I can tell you

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Speaker 1: as we're seeing the runs come in that rand. At

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Speaker 1: about one am this morning, they two were shifting east.

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Speaker 1: So there's a trend now in the guidance. If that

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Speaker 1: trend continues through the day, we're gonna start to feel

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Speaker 1: more confident on lower snowfall totals. Rob Carolin and Bloomberg meteorologist,

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Speaker 1: thank you. We'll check back with you. I know a

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Speaker 1: lot of people put away their winter stuff, so they'll

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Speaker 1: be happy if the storm shifts out. Otherwise, tom we'll

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Speaker 1: be seeing you building snow Man's because the snow like

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Speaker 1: Yelle would win basketball, well, Purdue was supposed to win.

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Speaker 1: Can I'm getting a dirty look? Produce who runs our show? Here?

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Speaker 1: Distinguished perdue not have the level of hangover when she

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Speaker 1: walked in the door at two oh twelve am. It

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Speaker 1: was outrageous. Can I can I explain that senility is

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Speaker 1: set in. John Tucker, what do I have in my hand?

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Speaker 1: It's radio? It works? Uh? Well, two phones? Did I

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Speaker 1: or you? I woke? I walked out of my house

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Speaker 1: today with my iPhone and the Sainted One's iPhone. So

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Speaker 1: much the level of trouble when when you have both

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Speaker 1: iPhones in your pocket, you know this is it's a

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Speaker 1: good thing. It's Friday. We'll just get the week over.

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Speaker 1: That's It's been quite a week with a lot of

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Speaker 1: central banks meeting all week. Russia the latest this morning. Um,

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Speaker 1: if you're just waking up, the Russians did nothing like

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Speaker 1: a lot of the central banks out there, held their

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Speaker 1: main rate. They're a bit of a surprise to some people,

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Speaker 1: but at the moment it doesn't seem to be having

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Speaker 1: a huge impact. The ruble sixty seven seventy three, benefiting

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Speaker 1: from higher oil prices. J Sweeney, Chief Economists did credit

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Speaker 1: sweet securities. Uh, he is with us this morning. Talk

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Speaker 1: about what we have learned all week. We've got now

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Speaker 1: what appears to be something of a cap on the dollar.

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Speaker 1: We've got this moving oil prices. Uh. And and it's

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Speaker 1: gonna snow on the first day of spring. Um, I'll

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Speaker 1: put all those things together, and I'm wondering if maybe

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Speaker 1: we have a bit of an inflection point for the economy,

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Speaker 1: the the big valley that we went into it the

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Speaker 1: first of the year. Over, Yeah, I think there's a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a wobble up in global growth coming

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Speaker 1: after a wobble down earlier this year. UM global industrial

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Speaker 1: production essentially hasn't grown over over the past five quarters,

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Speaker 1: but the past few months were particularly bad. So often

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Speaker 1: when when you get a little momentum swing there in

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Speaker 1: factories around the world, you you see markets forecast that

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Speaker 1: a bit ahead of time, risky assets do a little better. Uh,

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Speaker 1: we're we're seeing that so UM commodity prices up, a

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Speaker 1: little bit of a improvement and growth expectator is a

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Speaker 1: little bit of an improvement and risk appetite. And then

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Speaker 1: you have these central banks. Um, you have the bad

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Speaker 1: news the markets thought it got from the from the

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Speaker 1: Japanese when there was when there was a a signal

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Speaker 1: that that maybe abnomics was not going to be you know,

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Speaker 1: bond buying on steroids as much going forward, bad news

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Speaker 1: from the e c B two markets that actually they've

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Speaker 1: eased more, but they're not gonna ease much more um

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Speaker 1: and then some good news from the market's perspective from

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Speaker 1: the Fed. They're not about to keep rates rising at

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Speaker 1: twenty five basis points the quarter despite what's happening and

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Speaker 1: rising US inflation and falling into the case where we're

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Speaker 1: central bank, where the FED is driving the global economy

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Speaker 1: by doing nothing. Well, I sort of think the global

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Speaker 1: economy drives itself, but the conversation and financial markets definitely

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Speaker 1: gets thrown around by what the central banks are doing.

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Speaker 1: And uh, and this is a very dynamic environment. It's

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Speaker 1: confused a lot of people. And actually what we've seen

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Speaker 1: is a lot of people don't want to trade in

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Speaker 1: this in this environment because because it's easy to be

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Speaker 1: off sized pretty quickly. And James Greeney where this with

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Speaker 1: Credit Sweet Bloomberg Surveillance is Friday brought you by Investco.

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Speaker 1: Investco believes it's time to say goodbye to the traditional

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Speaker 1: sixty stock bond allocation say hello to alternatives as a

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Speaker 1: core part of modern portfolios. Learn more at investco dot

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Speaker 1: com slash also a L T S Investco dot com

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Speaker 1: slash all It's one of the great moments for us.

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Speaker 1: James this week was Michael McKee tearing apart the dots,

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Speaker 1: and one of the ideas is there's a green line

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Speaker 1: which is the FED guests and there's the market belief.

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Speaker 1: They're still wide and Mike and Mike correct, they got wider. Well,

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Speaker 1: that was the odd thing. I mean, you look at

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Speaker 1: the dots plots and I and I'm sure James is

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Speaker 1: familiar with it, but I'll put it up on my

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Speaker 1: computer so you can see. I mean, you see on

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg they have a function that shows what the

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Speaker 1: oh I S spread was to the dot plot and

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Speaker 1: that's December. Uh, in December it was why, I mean,

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Speaker 1: the market was way below where the FED was. So

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Speaker 1: the Fed comes down and what happens market goes farther down. Yes, um, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's it's been it's it's been a rough ride for

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Speaker 1: markets and um. But again I think the data is

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Speaker 1: u is consistent with with higher inflation expectations that have

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Speaker 1: been priced in the market. But the fears about global

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Speaker 1: growth are consistent with the slower pace of hikes than

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Speaker 1: the FED was indicating a few months ago. So this

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Speaker 1: wedge should close. I put this out on the radio

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Speaker 1: plus app for those of you who don't have a

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Speaker 1: bloomberg in front of you and would like to see

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Speaker 1: you can check it there. Uh, as somebody put it

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Speaker 1: to the market was pricing in two Fed rate increases,

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Speaker 1: when the FED was pricing in four. The Fed comes

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Speaker 1: down to two in the market now prices one. Can

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Speaker 1: the Fed ever win? Is it always going to be

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Speaker 1: chasing its tail here? Yeah? I mean well, and there

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Speaker 1: was a moment there six or eight weeks ago where

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Speaker 1: the where the market basically thought you weren't going to

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Speaker 1: get any hikes for the next six or eight quarters. So, uh,

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Speaker 1: this stuff moves around quite a bit within it in

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Speaker 1: and I guess sort of recalibrating here after three huge

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Speaker 1: FED Central Bank meetings rather in a row, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: hear speeches, including Janet Yellen's important speech you think you

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Speaker 1: can on a club right at the the end of

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Speaker 1: the months, what will you listen for? What does she

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Speaker 1: need to rejusify? Remember, like eighteen months ago, like slack

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Speaker 1: slack slack every every other sentence, what's her what's the

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Speaker 1: new word for her? Well, how is she explaining data dependence?

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Speaker 1: And then an increase in dubbishness now? And so there

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Speaker 1: are some potential things and she She said this week

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Speaker 1: that some of the factors driving core inflation up are

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Speaker 1: transitory and and short term. UM. I don't really agree

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Speaker 1: with that, and I combe to the inflation data bottom up,

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Speaker 1: don't really see the same thing. But I would I

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Speaker 1: would like her to expand on that, UM and what

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Speaker 1: are these risks from financial markets and from China and

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Speaker 1: from global growth specifically that trouble her with regard to

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Speaker 1: US policy. You know, she could she could elaborate on

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Speaker 1: what she's worried about. That would be interesting. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it could be that the FED is deeply concerned about

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Speaker 1: the outlook in China, for instance, and think that's a

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Speaker 1: game changer for global economy over there a couple of years,

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Speaker 1: and we therefore need a different FED path. And then

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Speaker 1: you'd expect from the U S data. James Sweeney where

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Speaker 1: us with credit sweets and we will continue our discussion

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Speaker 1: looking more at the global economy. UH coming. What a

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Speaker 1: week it has been for economics here on UH surveillance

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Speaker 1: futures negative five down futures one the yen one eleven

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Speaker 1: point for one. All right, let's check it with Michael Bart.

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Speaker 1: I'll get the latest world in the national headlines Michael, Mike, Tom,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much. First fiery rhetoric about joint military

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Speaker 1: drills between the US and South Korea, and now North

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Speaker 1: Korea has fired off a ballistic missile as well. Experts

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Speaker 1: say the ballistic missile flew about five hundred miles off

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Speaker 1: the regime's coast into the sea. The U S official

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Speaker 1: says the Pentagon as confirmed that the missile was fired

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Speaker 1: from a mobile launcher. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is rejecting

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Speaker 1: suggestions at the race for the Democratic presidential nomination against

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Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton is all but over. Sanders says he still

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Speaker 1: maintains a path towards victory despite Clinton's big, delicate lead.

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Speaker 1: Turkish prime ministers says that the refugee emergency is an

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Speaker 1: issue of values, not deal making. He spoke as he

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Speaker 1: arrived for talks with EU leaders. The EU is looking

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