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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast Podcasts app.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second.

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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Action Network Podcast presented by FanDuel Brendan

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Speaker 1: Glashen with Action Networks UFC Betting Previews.

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Speaker 3: They are back.

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Speaker 1: We are back for our second episode, joining me two

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Speaker 1: of our very best in the space, Sean Zarillo Billy Ward.

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Speaker 3: You can find them in the Action Network app.

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Speaker 1: They have great work in the Action Network app also

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Speaker 1: on actionnetwork dot Com. This episode breaking down UFC Vegas

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Speaker 1: sixty nine this weekend at the Apex in Vegas, looking

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Speaker 1: at some favorite underdogs. Later in the program, also a

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Speaker 1: fight of the night the guys are targeting and of

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Speaker 1: course the best bets. But first we'll start with the

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Speaker 1: main event, Jessica Andrage taking on Aaron Blanchefield right now

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Speaker 1: coming into this thing, Andrage, who Sorilla is coming off

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Speaker 1: a really, really gutsy, long played out fight, is indeed

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Speaker 1: a favorite in this spot coming into Vegas. To me,

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Speaker 1: that kind of makes it head scratching to want to

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Speaker 1: take the favorite here because of what Andrage is coming

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Speaker 1: off of here.

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Speaker 4: Jessica Andrage a very violent fighter, likely future UFC Hall famer,

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Speaker 4: but one weakness in her game is takedown defense, and

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Speaker 4: she can get grappled up, and I think that's a

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Speaker 4: potential path to victory for Aaron blanche With here you

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Speaker 4: see a very closely lined fight. I do think in hindsight,

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Speaker 4: the winner is probably gonna look pretty dominant. So at

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Speaker 4: the end of the fight, the line will not match

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Speaker 4: what it looks like going into the fight, not expecting

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Speaker 4: a drawn out, five round affair that goes back and forth.

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Speaker 4: I think one fighter is going to have the advantage

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Speaker 4: being able to implement their game on the other. If

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Speaker 4: Aaron Blanchield can get takedowns, I think she's going to

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Speaker 4: get dominant positions as on Drogers looks to get up.

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Speaker 4: I think she's going to be able to thread the hooks,

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Speaker 4: take the back, potentially secure dominant control positions, or finish

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Speaker 4: the fight. If she cannot get takedowns, which has happened

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Speaker 4: in the past against other fighters like JJ Aldrich who

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Speaker 4: has shrugged her off got back to the striking. Andraj

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Speaker 4: going to have a serious power advantage in the striking.

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Speaker 4: We'll be able to pressure blanche Field, potentially hurt her,

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Speaker 4: if not put her away. So you do see the

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Speaker 4: fight juice pretty heavily to end inside the distance. I

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Speaker 4: do agree with that assessment. No value in that prop

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Speaker 4: for me though, if I'm going to be betting the fight,

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Speaker 4: I projected the money line right around fifty percent, so

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Speaker 4: Blanchefield around plus one fifteen would be the money line.

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Speaker 3: Side for me.

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Speaker 4: But I actually might prefer her finish props inside the

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Speaker 4: distance around plus two ninety and buy submission at plus

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Speaker 4: five hundred. If she has that grappling advantage, maybe gets

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Speaker 4: to a crucifix position like she did against Molly McCann

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Speaker 4: and finishes Jessica Androge as well. I'm not sure if

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Speaker 4: I mentioned, but she is the bigger fighter, three inches taller,

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Speaker 4: four inch reach upside, so Androge does have the power advantage.

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Speaker 4: But when they get on the ground, it maybe taking

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Speaker 4: those longer rims lapping or wrapping up Androge could be

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Speaker 4: the advantage sixty six.

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Speaker 1: Reach for Blanchefield to Andrage's sixty two. Yeah, but I

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Speaker 1: was getting at is the just reading up on this.

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Speaker 1: The short notice here for Andrage coming into this is

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Speaker 1: a concern, and that does not match the like you

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Speaker 1: had mentioned, the takedown defense, the pace at which she

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Speaker 1: fights Billy, I'm curious if you agree with Sorillo, how

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Speaker 1: do you go about this?

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Speaker 3: And by the way, is I.

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Speaker 1: Think Zerrilla mapped this out look at Fandel Or presented

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Speaker 1: by Fandel Blanchefield plus one ten on the money line,

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Speaker 1: Androge the favorite at minus one thirty four.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the short notice aspect of this.

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Speaker 5: You know, Jessica and drag it was either three or

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Speaker 5: four weeks ago, pretty dominant performance against Lauren Murphy was never.

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Speaker 6: Really put in trouble. Yeah.

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Speaker 5: Still, you know you assume after a fight like that,

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Speaker 5: you probably take a week off, rest a little bit,

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Speaker 5: and now she's getting thrown back in. This is a

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Speaker 5: five round fight because it's the main event. That's what

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Speaker 5: I'm really seeing. The biggest advantage for either fighter here

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Speaker 5: is Blanchefield. If this one goes long, It's really hard

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Speaker 5: to prepare for that long of a fight, especially on

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Speaker 5: a short notice.

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Speaker 6: She took this on less than a week.

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Speaker 5: And you know, I agree with Sean that Androge has

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Speaker 5: the power advantage, that she probably has the early finishing upside,

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Speaker 5: So I could certainly see a case for playing Androge

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Speaker 5: early and then Blanchfield late. I'm riding with Blanchfield. The

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Speaker 5: line has moved tremendously her way. When this fight was announced,

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Speaker 5: Androge was minus one eighty minus one ninety somewhere in

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Speaker 5: that range.

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Speaker 6: So sharp money has been coming in on Blanchfield the

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Speaker 6: whole way. I like her on the line.

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Speaker 5: I think, you know, plus one ten plus one fifteen

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Speaker 5: is fine. I'd bet that down to about even money

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Speaker 5: if you're looking elsewhere in the market. I also like

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Speaker 5: thinking about trying to get her and over. You know,

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Speaker 5: a certain number of rounds one and a half, two

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Speaker 5: and a half that can get you kind of back

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Speaker 5: to that original line we saw for her, or sometimes

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Speaker 5: even better depending on how aggressive you get.

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Speaker 6: So that just gives you a little bit better odds.

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Speaker 5: I don't think she just comes out and starches Androge,

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Speaker 5: but she should be able to take over the longer

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Speaker 5: this goes, bigger fighter. You know, Androja said she's gonna

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Speaker 5: go back to one fifteen at some point. Blanchfield's a

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Speaker 5: pretty big one twenty five carrying all that weight, especially

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Speaker 5: if she gets some takedowns. My prediction how I think

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Speaker 5: this is gonna go is Blanchfield late. So however you

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Speaker 5: want to bet based on that, Angle. I'm okay with it.

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Speaker 5: Money line's fine too as well.

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Speaker 1: All right, so this top ten fight main event, fellas

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Speaker 1: are going with the underdog. Now when you say just quickly,

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Speaker 1: when you say go Androge early, is that you saying,

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Speaker 1: all right, maybe get involved with Andrage early on and

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Speaker 1: the like.

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Speaker 3: Bet blanche Field Live. Potentially, I guess, is my question.

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Speaker 5: You could certainly do that if you're watching this one live.

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Speaker 5: You know, if you really wanted to Hedge. I have

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Speaker 5: no problem with Androge in round one. FANDL has some

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Speaker 5: props where you can bet, you know, a fighter in

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Speaker 5: two different rounds, so you can bet on Drige round one,

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Speaker 5: a round two. Long story short, if you told me

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Speaker 5: this one ends in the first round, I'd be pretty

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Speaker 5: convinced that Androge Wednesday, I don't think it's gonna end

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Speaker 5: in the first round. But if I knew coming in

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Speaker 5: that someone wins in the first round, it's probably Drage.

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Speaker 5: So if you want to be more conservative with your

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Speaker 5: bets and take both sides of it, it would be

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Speaker 5: Ondrodge round one or two.

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Speaker 6: You know, Blanchfield later on, Blanchfield Live. Things like that.

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Speaker 1: When we look at this week's card, Zerillo would you

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Speaker 1: like as far as an underdog which jumps out.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, difficult card for betting purposes, just because there's a

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Speaker 4: lot of fighters coming off the layoff where we don't

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Speaker 4: have tape on in recent years. And one of those

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Speaker 4: fights in particular, Jamal Emmers against Hussein whose last name

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna butcher hopefully not Oskobov.

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Speaker 3: Twenty three and oh rush and fighter.

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Speaker 4: You see that record, it's kind of like a team

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Speaker 4: coming into the NCAA tournament, you know, played a dominant

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Speaker 4: mid major schedule beat up on their conference that you

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Speaker 4: don't know anything about. And I'm not really sure how

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Speaker 4: I rate Cussanin as a fighter, but his level of

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Speaker 4: competition was very He racked up twenty three wins against

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Speaker 4: the very low level of opponents.

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Speaker 3: Classic five to twelve matchup. That's what you're talking right here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, And you know, it kind of seems like that

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Speaker 4: Jamal Emmers sort of your mid of the standings, like

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Speaker 4: acc type of team where he's been around the game

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Speaker 4: for a while, lots of pedigree there. He is coming

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Speaker 4: off of an injury though, and that is the biggest

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Speaker 4: concern on his side. Got his knee shredded in his

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Speaker 4: last fight in the UFC, but has faced a high

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Speaker 4: level of competition, very well rounded, tends to be competitive

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Speaker 4: with a lot of UFC fighters that you wouldn't think

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Speaker 4: he would be able to be competitive with fights to

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Speaker 4: his level of competition. That could be a bad thing too,

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Speaker 4: because he does make some very poor decisions in there

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Speaker 4: are times low level fight IQ. Some bad decisions could

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Speaker 4: put him in trouble even when he's winning fights. But

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Speaker 4: all of those things that I said, well rounded fighter.

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Speaker 4: He's the bigger man as well, two inches taller, five

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Speaker 4: inch reach advantage, and frankly, I'm not really sure what

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Speaker 4: Cousain does that is the main part of his game.

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Speaker 4: He seems to be able to do a bunch of things,

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Speaker 4: but if I had to tell you what his best

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Speaker 4: skill was, I'm not really sure I can identify it.

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Speaker 4: So getting jamal Emers here at plus one thirty five

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Speaker 4: by decision a plus three sixty against the guy who

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Speaker 4: tends to finish a lot of his fights, this is

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Speaker 4: a difficult fight to bet, as I said, because you

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Speaker 4: have the long layoff for Kusaine jamal Emers coming back

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Speaker 4: off of injury, but getting the plus side money of

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Speaker 4: the equation in what I think I would handicap as

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Speaker 4: at least a fifty to fifty fight, if not make

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Speaker 4: Emers a slight favorite.

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Speaker 3: Do you have a cutoff line as far as what

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Speaker 3: you bet it? Two? Probably do about plus one ten.

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Speaker 4: I made Emmers forty nine percent, and then in that

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Speaker 4: decision prop at plus three sixty. I believe I projected

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Speaker 4: it closer to plus three two fifty, so around plus

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Speaker 4: three hundred by decision.

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Speaker 3: Okay, very good, Billy. How about yourself? You look up

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Speaker 3: and down and are you with Zurilo that this is a.

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Speaker 1: Challenging card to find underdog edges with some uncertainty?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, definitely. I've struggled to find.

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Speaker 5: You know, there's a couple of fights on targeting, but

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Speaker 5: you can't use those in every single segment and just

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Speaker 5: keeps saying the same thing over and over real quick.

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Speaker 5: To Shawn's point, I've been doing a piece I'm calling

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Speaker 5: the luck rankings or luck ratings for the AH, and

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Speaker 5: I'm trying to look at guys who you know, get

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Speaker 5: points deducted, lose split decisions that could have gone either way.

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Speaker 5: Emers really jumped out to me. He made his USC

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Speaker 5: debut against Giga Chikazi lost a split decision, wins his

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Speaker 5: next fight, then fights Pat Sabatini, who's really really good,

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Speaker 5: gets caught in a heel hook, which I don't want

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Speaker 5: to say is lucky, Like that's certainly something that we

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Speaker 5: train for, but it's somewhat fluky. You can't make that

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Speaker 5: happen every single time. It's not something you really plan for.

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Speaker 5: So I'm not necessarily sold on Emers for this fight.

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Speaker 5: But he's definitely an undervalued fighter by the market broadly speaking,

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Speaker 5: mainly just based on strength of schedule, as Sean pointed

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Speaker 5: out with the NCAA analogy, But as far as far

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Speaker 5: as my underdogs, I'm looking at Thumbo Garimbo kind of

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Speaker 5: similar to Kusayn Askabov. I don't know a ton about him.

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Speaker 5: He's ten and three, faught lower level of competition, look

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Speaker 5: pretty good, But he's fighting Aj Fletcher. AJ's owen in

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Speaker 5: his UFC career proper, he wanted to fight on the

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Speaker 5: Contender Series. This is a welterweight fight, but Fletcher is

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Speaker 5: just not built like a welterweight. He's five foot ten,

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Speaker 5: that's fine for the division. He has a five foot

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Speaker 5: seven inch each and he's just the short, little stubby

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Speaker 5: kind of t rex arms guy. It just really doesn't

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Speaker 5: play well against these big, long guys that he's going

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Speaker 5: to be fighting. I really can't see a case for

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Speaker 5: Fletcher being minus two eighty minus two ninety that kind

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Speaker 5: of line against pretty much anyone.

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Speaker 6: So if you can get plus two fifty on his

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Speaker 6: opponent who looks.

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Speaker 5: Solid, you know, he's the number one welterweight in South

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Speaker 5: Africa for whatever that's worth.

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Speaker 6: I just really have a hard time seeing Fletcher that longabouts.

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Speaker 4: Fletcher gas is really hard in every fight. To you,

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Speaker 4: if you can get his opponent live after round one

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Speaker 4: or there's you know, as Billy mentioned the main event,

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Speaker 4: playing late props, I would definitely take his opponent round two,

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Speaker 4: round three props as well.

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Speaker 6: Might interest me.

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Speaker 1: All Right, we have top props coming up on the pod.

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Speaker 1: I've got your article pulled up now, Billy. We can

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Speaker 1: get to this in a moment when we turn our

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Speaker 1: attention to Jim Miller Alexander Hernandez. We know Miller, his history,

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Speaker 1: what he means to UFC. Miller is I have it

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Speaker 1: right here. Jim Miller is on FanDuel plus one eighty six.

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Speaker 1: Alex Hernandez minus two thirty five. So Billy, I'll go

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Speaker 1: to you first on this one, just because he brought

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Speaker 1: up the luck ratings, because now I'm intrigued, and I

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Speaker 1: didn't on purpose say aha, I read your article and

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Speaker 1: you use the word aha in the first sentence, So

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Speaker 1: now I'm intriud Check it out over on the Action

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Speaker 1: Network AP on the website. So you think Miller is

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Speaker 1: undervalued at this number.

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Speaker 5: To a degree, and you know, obviously I'm not expecting

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Speaker 5: you to read all of this live while also conducting

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Speaker 5: a podcast.

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Speaker 3: But I'll live. I'll be fine.

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Speaker 5: But my general thought is Miller is just a really

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Speaker 5: good early fighter. His last seven wins have all came

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Speaker 5: within the first six or seven minutes of fights. Most

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Speaker 5: of his losses are by decisions. No, he's not fighting

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Speaker 5: great competition, but no, Alexander Hernandez is not great competition.

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Speaker 5: To what I said about Androge earlier, if you told

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Speaker 5: me that this fight ends in the first half of it,

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Speaker 5: and that's all I know going in, I'm laying the

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Speaker 5: house on Jim Miller. So fanduwell again with their you know,

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Speaker 5: pick two different rounds props. You can get Miller round

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Speaker 5: one or round two. At plus three eighty. I'm tempted

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Speaker 5: to just say take the first round, but he's won

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Speaker 5: his last three in a row. Early into the second

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Speaker 5: sometimes it helps you get that minute on the stool

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Speaker 5: to recover a little bit, come back out, and that's

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Speaker 5: pretty much it for Jim Miller after that first minute

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Speaker 5: or two in the second round. So if you're watching it,

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Speaker 5: definitely a great live spot on Hernandez. I think Sean's

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Speaker 5: gonna mention some Hernandez late angles here. But again, if

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Speaker 5: you think it's gonna end early, it's almost certainly Jim

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Speaker 5: Miller that does it.

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Speaker 6: He's gonna come.

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Speaker 5: Out really hard, either put the guy away or not,

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Speaker 5: and then probably fade.

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Speaker 1: Zarillo, Are you gonna fade the lack of consistency, the

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Speaker 1: lack of conditioning that surrounds Hernandez against Miller.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think.

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Speaker 4: There's some significant cardio concerns on both size. You know,

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Speaker 4: Hernandez tends to get finished in round two. He also

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Speaker 4: has a six or seven minutes of gas. But to

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Speaker 4: Billio's point, Jim Miller hasn't won a decision since twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 4: He is definitely up there.

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Speaker 3: At age.

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Speaker 4: He has lime disease, so he tends to fade fairly

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Speaker 4: quickly into his fights in general, just because he can't

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Speaker 4: keep it going and he's older. He has the most

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Speaker 4: fights in UFC history. I believe most wins in UFC

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Speaker 4: history will probably be in the UFC Hall of Fame

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Speaker 4: one day. Jim Miller is an absolute legend. The one

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Speaker 4: thing I think is going to be an issue for

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Speaker 4: him asides from athleticism, because from the jump, the pure

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Speaker 4: athleticism gap is going to be huge. Hernandez is going

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Speaker 4: to be much faster. Miller has forty seven percent takedown

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Speaker 4: defense typically because when he gets taken down, he jumps

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Speaker 4: guillete if he gets it fight ender if he and

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Speaker 4: he's got a great guilletee, and if he doesn't, he's

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Speaker 4: gonna get stuck on his back, and he's good defensive

295
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Speaker 4: jiu jitsu. I think Hernandez probably top times him for

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Speaker 4: the latter part of the fight, especially the second half

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Speaker 4: of the fight. I think they're both going to be tired,

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Speaker 4: but I think that athleticism gap, the wrestling advantage for

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Speaker 4: her and down the stretch is going to be the

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Speaker 4: difference maker. I do like Hernandez on the money line.

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Speaker 4: I think Jim Miller is going to need a guillotine

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Speaker 4: or going to need a club and sub in order

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Speaker 4: to finish him, as Billy said in the first six

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Speaker 4: and a half minutes, or it's going to be a

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Speaker 4: pretty wide Hernandez decision if not a Hernandez finished. So

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Speaker 4: Hernandez on the money line, I made him closer to

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Speaker 4: minus two seventy five. There's some minus two twenty five

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Speaker 4: out there. I think you could throw him in a parlay.

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Speaker 4: Felipeglin's another guy liking the card. I think he could

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Speaker 4: get a small little parlay around even money on those

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Speaker 4: two or Hernandez by decision at plus three twenty I

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Speaker 4: think is the best way to bet this fight. Miller

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Speaker 4: was surviving both guys tiring out down the stretch.

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Speaker 3: Miller, you have Ce's all time leader in appearances.

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Speaker 1: He's got a three game, three match win streak coming

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Speaker 1: into this this particular fight.

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Speaker 3: So and He's got forty appearances under his belt at

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Speaker 3: forty years old.

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Speaker 6: Real quick on that one.

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Speaker 5: I believe FanDuel offers lines where you can get a

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Speaker 5: round three win or a decision.

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Speaker 6: You get both of those in there.

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Speaker 5: That's I think a really strong and really good option

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Speaker 5: to have for alex Hernandez here against Miller.

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Speaker 1: Okay, onto the prop market, we will go to Zerrilla first,

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Speaker 1: and uh, as Billy said earlier, you've got some spots

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Speaker 1: here that you're.

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Speaker 4: Like, yeah, actually just mentioned Felipe Linz liking him as

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Speaker 4: a parlay piece with Alexander Hernandez. Well Linz in the

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Speaker 4: prop market, I think is the better way to play

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Speaker 4: him against ovin Saint Prux Sant Prue potential retirement fight.

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Speaker 4: Here he looks completely shot. His last fight was against

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Speaker 4: Mauricio Showgun, who he actually won that decision watching it back,

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Speaker 4: probably should have lost the fight. And then we see

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Speaker 4: Showgun come out in his retirement fight get immediately deaded

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Speaker 4: by Eu Herpetaria. OSP and Showgun. They were just two

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Speaker 4: wash fighters kind of hanging around with each other. I

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Speaker 4: think if you put them in there with any competent

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Speaker 4: UFC level fighter at this point, they're in bad trouble.

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Speaker 4: OSP prior to that Showgun fight two bad knockout losses

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Speaker 4: as well. He just looks completely physically shot. Lin's a

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Speaker 4: bigger guy, leaves and bounds, a better technical striker. I

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Speaker 4: think he has covered in the pocket specifically, OSP generally

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Speaker 4: doesn't hang out in the pocket, tends to play the

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Speaker 4: outside game. But as I mentioned, that movement is gone.

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Speaker 4: I think Lins is going to track him down at

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Speaker 4: some point. Doesn't really push a high pace, but I

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Speaker 4: think one or two big connections could be enough. So

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Speaker 4: Lin's by knockout a plus two to fifty inside the

350
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Speaker 4: distance plus one to eighty five. I think both solid props.

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Speaker 4: I'll speed Parlang winds up as well.

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Speaker 1: Billy, you're going a different direction. You got a big

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Speaker 1: plus money play for us.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm reaching real long on this one, but I

355
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Speaker 5: think there's an angle to it. Josh Prezian is coming back.

356
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Speaker 5: He had his last fight canceled because he was having

357
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Speaker 5: heart palpitations and running off to the hospital and all

358
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Speaker 5: this stuff, which scary situation.

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Speaker 6: You know.

360
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Speaker 5: He came out and gave an interview saying what this

361
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Speaker 5: fight means to him, all of that. He's from a

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Speaker 5: camp here in Michigan that's known for its really good

363
00:16:49,920 --> 00:16:52,960
Speaker 5: grappling ability. If you look at his finishes, mostly ground

364
00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:56,720
Speaker 5: and pound in submissions. He's fighting Jamal Pogue's UFC debut,

365
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Speaker 5: or two of his three losses are by submission, doesn't

366
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Speaker 5: seem we have that high level of jiu jitsu. These

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Speaker 5: are big guys. There's obviously the risk that if Parisian

368
00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:07,560
Speaker 5: uses his grappling, you just use it to beat him up.

369
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Speaker 5: But his sub submission lines are highest plus eighteen hundred.

370
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Speaker 5: That's a really really long line for a guy who's

371
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Speaker 5: a better grappler than he is a striker. Parisian is

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Speaker 5: gonna be in trouble if this is a pure striking match.

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Speaker 5: But we're in the Ufcapex Center. It's a little cage.

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Speaker 5: Similar to what Sean was saying about tracking the guy

375
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Speaker 5: down and corralling him. There's not really anywhere to run

376
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Speaker 5: or stay at range here in the small cage. So

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Speaker 5: if Farisian can grab him, get a hold of him,

378
00:17:29,800 --> 00:17:32,520
Speaker 5: he's far and away. I think the better submission grappler here.

379
00:17:33,480 --> 00:17:35,400
Speaker 5: The risk, of course is that he just beats him

380
00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:37,680
Speaker 5: up instead of using the submissions, but at plus eighteen hundred,

381
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Speaker 5: that's really hard to pass up on.

382
00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:39,720
Speaker 6: Parisian.

383
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Speaker 4: Also, true heavyweight Pogues is not I think more of

384
00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:45,880
Speaker 4: a natural white heavyweight, And with the heavyweights, sometimes all

385
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Speaker 4: it takes is for the bigger guy to get on

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Speaker 4: top and that could be the fight.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and you know just the odds of that are

388
00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:55,040
Speaker 5: way higher in the small cage than they are in

389
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Speaker 5: the pay per view cage. So that's the angle I've

390
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Speaker 5: been looking at a lot for some of the fights

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Speaker 5: this week.

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Speaker 1: And for context Parisian on the money line around plus

393
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Speaker 1: two hundred plus two ten, where you can find it

394
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Speaker 1: overrun fandle Okay. Finally, as we always do, we close

395
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Speaker 1: with best bets.

396
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Speaker 3: Zarello.

397
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Speaker 4: You can go first, Lena Landsberg Myra Blenna Silva. It

398
00:18:16,840 --> 00:18:19,639
Speaker 4: is a woman's bantamweight fight to go to decision at

399
00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:23,240
Speaker 4: minus one thirty two. The divisional average for women's bantam

400
00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:26,880
Speaker 4: weight is closer to sixty percent, so your average line

401
00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,000
Speaker 4: for this weight class should be around minus one fifty. Now,

402
00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:32,400
Speaker 4: as Billy mentioned, we are in the smaller cage, could

403
00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:35,360
Speaker 4: take about five percent off. Do get roughly to where

404
00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:37,760
Speaker 4: the line is, but I do think the finishing average

405
00:18:37,760 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 4: for this fight will be below the divisional average for

406
00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:44,240
Speaker 4: the weight class. Not a ton of standing knockout power

407
00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:47,399
Speaker 4: for either fight or I think the biggest finishing threat

408
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:51,720
Speaker 4: is Bueno Silva via armbar thing is she never has

409
00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:55,320
Speaker 4: completed a takedown in the UFC. If anybody is going

410
00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:59,520
Speaker 4: to proactively grapple here. It's likely Landsburg. Landsburg a very

411
00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:02,520
Speaker 4: durable I think she's going to be outclassed athletically. She's

412
00:19:02,560 --> 00:19:06,480
Speaker 4: pushing forty one years old. May get in trouble standing

413
00:19:06,600 --> 00:19:10,160
Speaker 4: just based on the speed disadvantage, but she's very durable.

414
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:12,520
Speaker 4: I expect this one to go to the scorecards slightly

415
00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:15,240
Speaker 4: more often than the odds suggest. I made this line

416
00:19:15,240 --> 00:19:18,600
Speaker 4: about minus one fifty five. You can also consider betting

417
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:22,000
Speaker 4: Landsberg by decision plus five fifty maybe a small sprinkle,

418
00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:24,680
Speaker 4: or her money line at plus four hundred. If this

419
00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:27,960
Speaker 4: is a slow paced, drawn out striking affair, might be

420
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Speaker 4: a split decision on the scorecards.

421
00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:34,800
Speaker 1: Hey, Billy again with your best bet. You're using your

422
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:36,320
Speaker 1: luck rankings.

423
00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:40,400
Speaker 3: Luck ratings not rankings. They're ratings to your one.

424
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Speaker 6: I haven't really settled in on exactly what we're.

425
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Speaker 1: Going to call this we I think what I've started

426
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Speaker 1: to find out. See again reading You're making your point

427
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:49,320
Speaker 1: reading the article and try to do a podcast at

428
00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:51,199
Speaker 1: the same time. But I will I will say this

429
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Speaker 1: might need to be a new segment. We need to

430
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Speaker 1: get the best edge Billy finds in the with the

431
00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:56,879
Speaker 1: luck ratings.

432
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Speaker 5: Go ahead, Yeah, so definitely referencing that one with the pick.

433
00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:03,080
Speaker 5: I'm looking at William Knight's money line. If you read

434
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Speaker 5: the article, the lines I reference in there a little

435
00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:07,120
Speaker 5: bit better on Night than what we're getting right now,

436
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:09,520
Speaker 5: which kind of goes to my point since the market

437
00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:10,520
Speaker 5: is moving in his direction.

438
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:13,639
Speaker 6: Night is three to one in the UFC. Is a

439
00:20:13,680 --> 00:20:14,480
Speaker 6: light heavyweight.

440
00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:16,800
Speaker 5: He stepped out of the division twice last year. Once

441
00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:19,240
Speaker 5: was a catchweight on short notice, once was a heavyweight fight.

442
00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:21,639
Speaker 6: Showed up at like two hundred fifty pounds for that one.

443
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 5: So definitely pay attention to the weigh ins, which will

444
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:26,520
Speaker 5: hopefully have happened by the time you're hearing this one.

445
00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:29,359
Speaker 5: If he looks good on the scales, and there's absolutely

446
00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:31,040
Speaker 5: no way this guy makes two to five, I don't

447
00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:33,440
Speaker 5: understand how it happens, but he's done it every single time.

448
00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:35,640
Speaker 5: But if he looks good on the scales, I think

449
00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:39,280
Speaker 5: he's a far better fighter than Marcine and Prashnio. The

450
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:41,359
Speaker 5: big knock on Night in his last two fights is

451
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:44,400
Speaker 5: he just faded really heavily down the stretch. But part

452
00:20:44,400 --> 00:20:46,280
Speaker 5: of that is because he's carrying all that extra weight

453
00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:48,600
Speaker 5: at heavyweight, and I don't know if people are aware

454
00:20:48,600 --> 00:20:50,760
Speaker 5: of this, but the process of losing weight for a

455
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:52,800
Speaker 5: lot of fighters involves a lot of extra cardio, you know,

456
00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 5: morning runs, doing that kind of thing. So not only

457
00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 5: is that what he's doing to lose the weight which

458
00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:00,480
Speaker 5: will make him able to last longer, but it also

459
00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:02,480
Speaker 5: you know, expands that guess tank as well as making

460
00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:04,000
Speaker 5: a more fuel efficient to make.

461
00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:09,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm not normally like a weight for Wayns guy,

462
00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:12,960
Speaker 4: but I think Billy's dead on here night had covid

463
00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 4: at one point two, lost a bunch of weight, gained

464
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:18,480
Speaker 4: a bunch of it back, missed weight baddly at light heavyweight.

465
00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:20,520
Speaker 4: His weight has been all over the place. He's a

466
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:23,479
Speaker 4: huge guy. He's thirty four years old. Definitely keep an

467
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:25,399
Speaker 4: eye on Wayns prior to betting this one.

468
00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,199
Speaker 1: He's like Christian Bale getting ready for a movie. You

469
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:29,400
Speaker 1: just don't know what you're going to get.

470
00:21:29,600 --> 00:21:29,960
Speaker 3: It is.

471
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,880
Speaker 4: It is like eighty pound fluctuations for this guy. It's

472
00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:35,400
Speaker 4: like going for the Machinists to Batman, back to the Machinists.

473
00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 4: So not great, all.

474
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 3: Right, fellas good stuff.

475
00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,119
Speaker 1: That'll do it for the UFC Vegas sixty nine betting

476
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 1: preview again, it's at the.

477
00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 3: Apex in Vegas.

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00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 1: That'll do it here on the Action Network Podcast presented

479
00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 1: by Fandel. Find more from Sean and Billy over the

480
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:53,399
Speaker 1: Action Network website. Don't forget to download the free award

481
00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 1: winning Action Network app. You can follow these guys, track

482
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,639
Speaker 1: their picks, et cetera. Also be sure to check out

483
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:03,200
Speaker 1: the Action Network Podcast for our NBA All Star weekend

484
00:22:03,320 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 1: betting preview. Not just the game itself, of course, We've

485
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:08,520
Speaker 1: got to find out who gets on what team based

486
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 1: on that live draft on the court and also the

487
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 1: weekend festivities three point shootout, dunk contests, etc.

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00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 3: We'll see you next time on the Action Network Podcast.

489
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:19,879
Speaker 3: You have a great weekend.

490
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

491
00:22:27,720 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

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00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,680
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler