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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast Podcast podcas All right,

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Speaker 1: here we go spreading the corn ten seconds or maining,

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Speaker 1: gonna just go show up to the basket.

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Speaker 2: Under the basket, it's the troupe for the wind. God

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Speaker 2: make up up miracle, I'd.

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Speaker 3: Up the water hit that one from the parking lot.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast plended by

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Speaker 2: Bett MGM. I am your host, Matthew Cox, joined as

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Speaker 2: always by my two esteemed cohorts at the three man

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Speaker 2: Weave kind of Ken and Jimbo Roots fresh off a

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Speaker 2: up ooper Wisconsin trip celebrating his Packers glory in the

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Speaker 2: National Football League playoffs, Kai, we don't talk about that

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Speaker 2: on this show. We talk about college basketball, though. Thank

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Speaker 2: you for joining us. We'll be dropping a new BBOC

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Speaker 2: episode every Wednesday morning. On today's we're gonna talk about

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Speaker 2: the key game of the week. The usual six pack

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Speaker 2: section still applies, although there is one section that is

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Speaker 2: going to be on ice based on our continued horror

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Speaker 2: performance and now gets that later. But to start, fellas,

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Speaker 2: how are we Kai? How are you?

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Speaker 3: I'm good man, I'm excited to talk college basketball.

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Speaker 2: Jim any additional thoughts on top.

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Speaker 4: Of that Copeco Jay Love best qubing in the league.

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Speaker 4: Let's talk cout tchoops.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I kind of agree with that. H Well, the

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Speaker 2: one section we're really good at, by the way, guys,

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Speaker 2: is picking live money line dogg os Bark bark bark.

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Speaker 2: Where's mine?

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Speaker 3: Uh? Where is mine?

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Speaker 2: We were all over cal last week slew both won

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Speaker 2: in dramatic comeback fashion thanks to fireball three point shooting

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Speaker 2: before always follow when the team that you bet on

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Speaker 2: make shots. That is kind of the ultimate. Uh, if

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Speaker 2: you can find a model that predicts that you'd be

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Speaker 2: pretty good at this business. So yeah, we're gonna try

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Speaker 2: and keep our nose for those vintage home dogs out

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Speaker 2: there as we kick off the live Dog of the

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Speaker 2: Week section. A couple to consider, and I kind of

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Speaker 2: stretched the envelope here on some longer shot dogs for sure,

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Speaker 2: which I know you guys will probably throw in a

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Speaker 2: few more more realistic ones. But hear me out here. Wednesday,

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Speaker 2: I got Rhode Island at Saint Bonaventure a road dog here,

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Speaker 2: but the Bondis don't seem that invincible, and Rode Island's

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Speaker 2: an absolute juggernaut right now. With David Green back in

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Speaker 2: the fold, I also circled Illinois State in the Valley

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Speaker 2: hosting Drake, who has been awesome but not as awesome

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Speaker 2: away from home. We know the Valley is one of

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Speaker 2: the stronger home courts conferences in college toops. Well, actually

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Speaker 2: talk about that at the end of the section today,

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Speaker 2: getting to the conferences with the best and worst home

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Speaker 2: courts to date. The Valley is up there for sure.

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Speaker 2: Home court Thursday, South Florida at Memphis. Big big swing

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Speaker 2: here for the fences. I know Memphis will probably be

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Speaker 2: laying twelve thirteen in this game, but they've not been

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Speaker 2: as good at home when they're laying large margin. CCUTSA

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Speaker 2: could have probably won that game last week at the

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Speaker 2: FEDEC form. And then Mommuth going into Drexel, who has

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Speaker 2: not missed a shot since No. I guess, but Mom,

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Speaker 2: that's good and they can play up and King Rice's

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Speaker 2: kid is awesome. I got four there, Kay, for you

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Speaker 2: pick out one of your favorites or throw in one

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Speaker 2: of your own considerations for the Live Dog the Week.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and then there's only one home dog in your

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Speaker 3: selection here, Matt. But there's really not many home dogs period.

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Speaker 3: This week. It seems East Carolina was there against North Texas,

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Speaker 3: but I've sworn off fading North Texas, so that will

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Speaker 3: not be one of mine. Man, how do youre force

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Speaker 3: some You know, Illinois State's intriguing. I just think Drake's

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Speaker 3: amazing and they solidified that by whooping Southern Illinois at

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Speaker 3: Southern Illinois last game, which is very hard to do.

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Speaker 3: Illinois State has not looked great. They just lost a

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Speaker 3: Valpo at home. Not in a hurry to back the Redbirds.

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Speaker 3: I do kind of like the Monmouth game. You know,

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Speaker 3: Monmouth is one of those teams that can get hot

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Speaker 3: in her You mentioned Xander Rice and if you want

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Speaker 3: to pick aa dog to out right, you want in variants.

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Speaker 3: And hey, Drexel, you're right. They're shooting over their heads.

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Speaker 3: That will come back down to earth eventually, and maybe

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Speaker 3: it does against Momauth and maybe Momuth gets hot. Maybe

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Speaker 3: MoMA is a good way to go. It's a pretty

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Speaker 3: big spread, be around nine or ten, but that's probably

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Speaker 3: my favorite of the bunch or island. I don't hate either.

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Speaker 3: Saint Bonaventure though, it is just a really really tough

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Speaker 3: place to play.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that travels difficult getting out to Oian, especially with

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Speaker 4: the storm sweeping through the East coast. Maybe they're not

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Speaker 4: really through the entire country. We dealt with that this

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Speaker 4: weekend in Chicago and in as matt mentioned, Upper Wisconsin

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Speaker 4: where I was, I probably will bet Rhode Island spread there.

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Speaker 4: I don't think I buy the money line outright, and

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Speaker 4: that's that's where I land. With South Florida too, man,

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Speaker 4: I think it's going to be a competitive game. Memphis,

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Speaker 4: like you mentioned, has been really bad laying big points

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Speaker 4: at home. It's kind of a penny hardaway thing. You

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Speaker 4: think of him as like smashing in fear of competition,

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Speaker 4: but laying big numbers at home. He's been like a

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Speaker 4: forty ATS coach. It's been really bad. So I actually

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Speaker 4: like Mom with the best of them all. It should

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Speaker 4: be a lower possession game. Like you guys mentioned, Drexel's

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Speaker 4: not going to get up and down. So if the

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Speaker 4: shots don't go in and Xander Rice does, go nuts

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Speaker 4: for Mom. Withuth on the other end, I think there's

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Speaker 4: a real trance of an upset there. So Mom with

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Speaker 4: is one. I'm going to be betting with the money

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Speaker 4: line underdog Matthew, and then also South Florida for sure

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Speaker 4: on the spread, considering Rhode Island, but I don't think

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Speaker 4: I'm quite gonna get there.

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Speaker 3: Matt Worth noting nor South Florida horrible this year so

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Speaker 3: far on the road just oh two and one. Technically

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Speaker 3: ats terrible margin, but small sample size a good point.

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Speaker 2: They have not left the cushy confines of South Florida

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Speaker 2: too off. However, I think they're playing better recently, so

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Speaker 2: I'm it's certain encouraged that they could actually rise up here.

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Speaker 2: I Am going to take that one as my long

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Speaker 2: shot flyer, and then I'll beat my chest and shower

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Speaker 2: confetti on myself when they win as a you knowkitchen

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Speaker 2: six or seven to one, depending what the price is there.

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Speaker 2: That's my only one of the week. I'm with Ky.

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Speaker 2: There were actually wasn't a very good batch for us

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Speaker 2: to continue. Are are surging two week win streak in these,

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Speaker 2: I guess especially in the home dog variety, which it

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Speaker 2: seems like it's been a pretty good ancdotally a very

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Speaker 2: good bet this year with strong home court edge. Jim,

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Speaker 2: you did mention the UC or you written down here,

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Speaker 2: wrote down on the outline. You see San Diego at

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Speaker 2: UC Irvine. We'll talk about that. The mid major game

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Speaker 2: of the week two awesome teams. You see, San Diego

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Speaker 2: has been one of the biggest surprises in college basketball.

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Speaker 2: They could be catching seven eight at Irvine with how

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Speaker 2: good Irvine's been pretty good money line dog value there.

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Speaker 2: I'm not playing that my only official play in the

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Speaker 2: USF For the record, Kyle, what's your official ledger read?

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Speaker 3: I'm going Monmouth, But I like the UC San Diego

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Speaker 3: side for Jim, and the reason is I keep fading

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Speaker 3: you see San Diego and they keep crushing me. I'm

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Speaker 3: giving in. Man, they got some Power Conference level players

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Speaker 3: on this team, clearly a ton of talent. Bryce Pope's

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Speaker 3: been ridiculous. This offense has to slow down eventually, but heck,

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Speaker 3: maybe it doesn't for another game. Maybe they can pull

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Speaker 3: the upset here at Irvine.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm taking UC San Diego. We can dive into

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Speaker 4: the ex's those of that game later in the mid

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Speaker 4: Major Game of the Week section like you mentioned. But

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Speaker 4: since Tyler McGee got eligible with the two time transfer

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Speaker 4: rule being sent to well, no whatever, he's twenty one

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Speaker 4: to fifty one from three in seven games. He's making

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Speaker 4: three a game forty. He's a complete monster, and it's

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Speaker 4: just really giving them the spacing they need around to

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Speaker 4: all the other personal action that they have with size

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Speaker 4: and the great point guard and Pope, like I mentioned,

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Speaker 4: I guess he's not really a point guard, but they've

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Speaker 4: got weapons that spreads too high. I think Irvine's a

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Speaker 4: tad inflated in my opinion. So yeah, you see San

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Speaker 4: Diego Monmouth, and I'm betting South Florida against the spread.

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Speaker 2: Everybody else coming back from Hawaii all of a week off,

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Speaker 2: but still central kind of landmine type of spot that

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Speaker 2: could arise there. Live Dog of the Week put that

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Speaker 2: to bed, and now we have to waltz into the

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Speaker 2: blowout city section, which was just a horrid section for

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Speaker 2: us last week.

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Speaker 3: Sentence.

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Speaker 2: We almost feel like this is an obligation at this

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Speaker 2: point because of how bad we've been identifying some of

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Speaker 2: these blowouts. Miami Florida lost at home to Louisville, which

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Speaker 2: is actually more embarrassing than Colgate losing at home to

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Speaker 2: La Fiette, though for that program standards pretty head scratching

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Speaker 2: as well. The opposite of blowouts would have actually been

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Speaker 2: good contenders in the money lining dog section. So I

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Speaker 2: try to keep this really simple, and my candidates selected

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Speaker 2: for this week on Wednesday, Furman at My Thursday, Hampton

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Speaker 2: at Hofstra Jim, I'll get two years in a second

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Speaker 2: here at those two, in particular, Hampton and VM I.

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Speaker 2: I feel really good about those as fades because they

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Speaker 2: play fast, and they don't play any defense, and their

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Speaker 2: opponents are really good opponents, and I think built to

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Speaker 2: blow bad teams out. Furman should be healthier on Wednesday. Slight,

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Speaker 2: slight chance they get Marcus Foster back, Probably not, but

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Speaker 2: a slight chance he does return, there will be a

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Speaker 2: huge boost for that team. And all you know kind

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Speaker 2: of considered them mini Alabama with their guard talent and

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Speaker 2: their shot making talent. Obviously sent one of their guards

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Speaker 2: to strut of there this offseason, but could certainly beat

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Speaker 2: Hampton and that Pors defense by a million. I thoughts

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Speaker 2: on my two selections, or are we going to exile

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Speaker 2: this section from the show outlined entirely. I'm in favor

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Speaker 2: of that choice as well.

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Speaker 3: No, I like these. I do think last year we

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Speaker 3: had Iowa Eastern Illinois in this section, and of course

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Speaker 3: beat Iowa. You're gonna get that every now and then.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Colgate hasn't lost a home game in like

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Speaker 3: two or three years. That was clearly like a shocking result.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I like the Furman vm I one, especially Pegeese and

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Speaker 3: Williams have been back for Furman for I think three games,

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Speaker 3: and they've covered at least two of those games. They

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Speaker 3: look obviously way better, but really it's about VMI. They

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Speaker 3: are just go, go, go go right now. In conference play,

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Speaker 3: they played ninety five possessions with Sanford. That's almost impossible.

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Speaker 3: There's two hundred and thirty points in that game. I

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Speaker 3: think Furman names it's number. They'll score one hundred in

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Speaker 3: this game, good enough for a blowout. The spread's gonna

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Speaker 3: be twenty twenty three something like that.

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Speaker 2: Slightly in the street so you actually might get a

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Speaker 2: cheaper spread there to all.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, yeah, slightly under hasher as well. I wouldn't

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Speaker 3: be surprised if that game was like tied at halftime,

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Speaker 3: because Hampton tends to do that against better competition, and

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Speaker 3: then Haster just destroys him in the second half. So yeah,

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Speaker 3: I like to Furman play better.

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Speaker 4: Jim. Yeah, I'm with Matt. Both these teams are such

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Speaker 4: big fades Femi and Hampton given their style, and I

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Speaker 4: think you're catching favorites that are reeling a little bit.

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Speaker 4: Haster's one to three in the Coastal, which is shocking,

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Speaker 4: like one of the favorites. So I think they're going

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Speaker 4: to be, you know, not going to sleep walk through that.

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Speaker 4: They've lost two in a row. And then Furman, also

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Speaker 4: preseason favorite in the SoCon they started owing two limited

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Speaker 4: by injuries. Now getting healthier. May or may not get

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Speaker 4: Foster back in the lineup, but I think you're getting

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Speaker 4: a very focused version of them as well. They covered

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Speaker 4: against the Citadel, they covered against eat Tennessee State. I

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Speaker 4: think they can do the same against a mega young

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Speaker 4: VMI team that is just kind of I don't know

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Speaker 4: what they're doing. That like they've hit the gas pedal

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Speaker 4: in league play and they're just having fun out there.

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Speaker 3: I guess.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Just a quick note back to sorry, I was

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Speaker 2: just looking at gyms schedule for Hampton. They played Monday,

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Speaker 2: they play Thursday against Hofstraw as I just mentioned, and

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Speaker 2: they play at momoth on Saturday. So if we fail

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Speaker 2: you on hofstru maybe just go back to the well

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Speaker 2: on Saturday with King Rice and the boys in West

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Speaker 2: Long Branch at the home. They've been a pretty good

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Speaker 2: home favorite. We saw them take Northeastern to the wood

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Speaker 2: shed last weekend, So Jim, I'm gonna disavow your last

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Speaker 2: consideration here. Liberty potentially as a blowout candidate against FIU,

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Speaker 2: which has zero concept of discipline or organization. They live

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Speaker 2: and flourish in chaos, but Liberty has no tolerance for that.

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Speaker 2: I'm just kind of out of Liberty overall. I've just

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Speaker 2: been soured by their last few games. Officially put them

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Speaker 2: on I do not bet unless really really good reason list.

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Speaker 4: Here's a really really good reason. They're ow and three

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Speaker 4: in the A Sun. They're the preseason favorite, and they're

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Speaker 4: playing a team that has no clue how to play

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Speaker 4: against the.

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Speaker 2: Discipline Way Conference USA new conference this year.

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Speaker 4: Yes, thank you, thank you.

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Speaker 3: Good catch.

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Speaker 4: I lost to Jacksonville State, one of their old A

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Speaker 4: Sun foes that came with them, So that's got the

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Speaker 4: a Son on my mind.

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Speaker 3: Uh yeah, no, I.

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Speaker 4: Think it's a terrific spot to back. Liberty just lost

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Speaker 4: an ot on the road at Louisiana Tech. You're getting

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Speaker 4: an angry back against the wall. Oh and three like

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Speaker 4: a good team. Being owen three is so rare, and

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Speaker 4: they've got a team come into Town that if they

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Speaker 4: can't get out in transition, they don't know what to do.

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Speaker 4: I think Liberty beats them by thirty. That's my pitch.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know if I'll go back to that.

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Speaker 2: Well again, we'll see that concludes blowout City. Hopefully we

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Speaker 2: were poised for a bounce back there this week.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, unless you're maybe maybe you're crazy and you wanna

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Speaker 4: that the money lines of the ones we advised against

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Speaker 4: because last week you would have printed money on.

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Speaker 2: Live Ville and might do it myself. Actually say as

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Speaker 2: and we're onto the power game of the week.

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Speaker 4: Oh I could feel it, the.

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Speaker 2: Big Bad Voodoo Daddy matchup Smister mckeirn. A lot on Wednesday,

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Speaker 2: a little lighter on Thursday, and super light on Friday.

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Speaker 2: Except for those of you Big ten fanatics out there,

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Speaker 2: you guys have kind of hijacked the Friday Sunday slot,

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Speaker 2: so good free, we will not be talking Friday to Wednesday.

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Speaker 2: The for best Creighton at Yukon, Mississippi State at Kentucky,

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Speaker 2: Nevada at San Diego State, all of those around five

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Speaker 2: point spreads. By the way, home team going to be

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Speaker 2: roughly laying five per campon we'll see where the market opens,

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Speaker 2: and then Houston hosting Texas Tech in Big twelve Country. Thursday,

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Speaker 2: we have Illinois at Michigan and Oregon at Colorado out

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Speaker 2: on the West coast. So those are kind of the

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Speaker 2: six best games I identified. I have a couple takes

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Speaker 2: probably plays, I think in two of these, Kai, is

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Speaker 2: there anyone that sticks out to you as a great

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Speaker 2: juicy spot team you want to back? First team? You

314
00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:37,160
Speaker 2: want to fade, good matchup angle, whatever catches your catch

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Speaker 2: your eye.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I actually considered Craton against Yukon in the in

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Speaker 3: the live dog section. I know we're going to Yukon

318
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Speaker 3: and they might get ling Kong back, which apparently is

319
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Speaker 3: his nickname that just formed that like a week ago.

320
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Speaker 3: Everyone's seeing that name now. I'm for It's fine, Yeah whatever. Yeah,

321
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Speaker 3: he was seen cleanon down and Cleanton was seen warming

322
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Speaker 3: up pretty actively last game, so speculation as he returns.

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Speaker 3: I just think this Creighton team's really good, and five

324
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Speaker 3: points is a lot, especially if Klingon is not all

325
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Speaker 3: the way back and maybe on a limit cap. But Matt,

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Speaker 3: I think the game I like better in this section

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Speaker 3: is Mississippi State. Weirdly enough, totally Smith back for I

328
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Speaker 3: think his fourth or fifth game, certainly getting more ramped

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Speaker 3: up as we go along. They're coming off that tough

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Speaker 3: Alabama loss. I think it's a good spot from the

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Speaker 3: bounce back physical style of play, beat up the younger

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Speaker 3: Kentucky team. So that's probably my favorite of the bunch

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Speaker 3: you mentioned.

334
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Speaker 4: Yeah, Tiero maybe still out for Kentucky. He's been really important,

335
00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:40,240
Speaker 4: like jack of all trades type piece for them. So

336
00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:41,920
Speaker 4: take him out and maybe you got a little bit

337
00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:45,120
Speaker 4: of an edge tilting towards Mississippi State. Hi, I'm with

338
00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:47,840
Speaker 4: you on maybe back in Creighton if that game gets

339
00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:50,760
Speaker 4: bet up, when Klingon gets in or something, you get

340
00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:53,680
Speaker 4: it up to like seven. It is a little spooky

341
00:16:53,720 --> 00:16:56,080
Speaker 4: to back these really good Big East teams in their

342
00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:59,360
Speaker 4: monster home environments. But I'll take a hard look at

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Speaker 4: Creighton there. Man, I'm going to just avow one thing,

344
00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:05,080
Speaker 4: including Michigan in this section. Why do they belong here?

345
00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:07,840
Speaker 4: That team is under five hundred. Get them out. I'm

346
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Speaker 4: not a not a worthy inclusion in the power Game

347
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Speaker 4: of the week. I'm throwing keeping shade at that program

348
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Speaker 4: right now.

349
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Speaker 2: I just felt like, just because of their uh, you know,

350
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Speaker 2: their national championship gym.

351
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Speaker 4: We had to football school, yeah exactly.

352
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Speaker 2: So had to appease the current championship vibes that they

353
00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:29,720
Speaker 2: are exuding there. I love Colorado here at home. That

354
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:30,960
Speaker 2: that was the one I wanted to hit on. I

355
00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:33,040
Speaker 2: just think that they've been a different team at home,

356
00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:37,159
Speaker 2: very simply, they're healthier and Oregon as they step up

357
00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:39,720
Speaker 2: in class on the road in altitude, I'm curious to

358
00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,199
Speaker 2: see how they handle the size, and Jim you kind

359
00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:44,359
Speaker 2: of talk about it. The Buff's defense really impressed me

360
00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:47,080
Speaker 2: in stretches when they had all their able bodies out there,

361
00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:50,120
Speaker 2: especially Kobe Williams. I think that length could actually bother

362
00:17:51,040 --> 00:17:53,520
Speaker 2: the scintillating guards of Orgon right now. But fading Oregan

363
00:17:53,560 --> 00:17:55,840
Speaker 2: has been a terrible investment of season. So maybe those

364
00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:57,320
Speaker 2: will be my famous last words.

365
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Speaker 4: And I think they handle the size by having to

366
00:18:00,119 --> 00:18:02,399
Speaker 4: poly Dante back. He played like twenty two minutes over

367
00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:05,119
Speaker 4: the weekend. Yeah, that's going to give them a major,

368
00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:09,920
Speaker 4: major paint boost. I think spot wise, it's a terrific

369
00:18:10,040 --> 00:18:11,000
Speaker 4: spot for Colorado.

370
00:18:11,680 --> 00:18:13,760
Speaker 3: Gosh, man, I don't want to back Colorade after the

371
00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:16,439
Speaker 3: USC game. Colorado should have won that game by thirty

372
00:18:16,720 --> 00:18:19,159
Speaker 3: just looking at the paper, and they were lucky to

373
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Speaker 3: get out of their life. And Oregon's been incredible. So

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Speaker 3: that's a stay away from me.

375
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Speaker 4: My favorite better of that that year Matt is San

376
00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:29,840
Speaker 4: Diego State at home, they just lost, got kind of

377
00:18:29,880 --> 00:18:32,960
Speaker 4: punked at New Mexico on the road get back home.

378
00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:36,840
Speaker 4: Nevada has been a little shaky getting into league play.

379
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:39,240
Speaker 4: Lost a home to Boise State or excuse me, might

380
00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:41,560
Speaker 4: have been at Boise State. But I think that's going

381
00:18:41,640 --> 00:18:43,960
Speaker 4: to be an awesome home environment team looking to get

382
00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:47,120
Speaker 4: right after a really poor second half at the pit.

383
00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:49,120
Speaker 4: So I like San Diego State. I think that's that's

384
00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:50,440
Speaker 4: my favorite bet of this six pack.

385
00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:52,720
Speaker 2: Agree the Wolfpackers just kind of sell high for me.

386
00:18:52,760 --> 00:18:54,119
Speaker 2: I think they're really good. I just think they're a

387
00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:56,960
Speaker 2: little bit overpriced. They can't possibly play any better. I

388
00:18:57,000 --> 00:19:00,520
Speaker 2: think we all agree there and Cowford's play the really

389
00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:02,080
Speaker 2: good coaches in this league. I think you're starting to

390
00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:06,320
Speaker 2: see some of the scouting nuances work against some of

391
00:19:06,359 --> 00:19:08,960
Speaker 2: these favorites who have maybe played above their heads to start.

392
00:19:09,440 --> 00:19:13,040
Speaker 2: We saw in that Boise Nevada game really good scheming

393
00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,080
Speaker 2: biled Rice against Black Shehar, which is a key part

394
00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:17,720
Speaker 2: to what Nevada does on offense. Gotta think Brian Dutch

395
00:19:17,720 --> 00:19:19,399
Speaker 2: will have something good drawn up in the playbook for

396
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:22,440
Speaker 2: the Pack. But yep, I went with you, Jim. I

397
00:19:22,520 --> 00:19:24,960
Speaker 2: like the Aessex and I like colrad Um. Sorry you're

398
00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:27,560
Speaker 2: gonna run Dante off the floor, Eddie Lampkin and company.

399
00:19:29,080 --> 00:19:32,800
Speaker 2: Final thoughts. Now we're going in mid mages talking to

400
00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:36,199
Speaker 2: the middle men, not the mids. It's disrespectful guy, there

401
00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:38,199
Speaker 2: are no great ones on Wednesday, but we have an

402
00:19:38,280 --> 00:19:40,200
Speaker 2: awesome one Thursday, maybe one of the best mid major

403
00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:43,119
Speaker 2: tilts of the season in the true mid major fashion

404
00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:47,400
Speaker 2: in Big Sky Country, Weaber State is hosting Eastern Washington.

405
00:19:47,960 --> 00:19:51,240
Speaker 2: KEMPOM has this as we reminus five. I think it

406
00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:53,320
Speaker 2: should open somewhere around there, maybe a little bit less

407
00:19:53,640 --> 00:19:56,560
Speaker 2: given how good Eastern Washington's been For those who don't

408
00:19:56,600 --> 00:19:58,399
Speaker 2: remember it didn't follow. This is kind of a deja

409
00:19:58,560 --> 00:20:01,880
Speaker 2: vous of Eastern Washington season last year under David Rally.

410
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:04,160
Speaker 2: They went absolutely scorched earth through the conference. I think

411
00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:07,080
Speaker 2: racked it up as sixteen to oh record before kind

412
00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:09,680
Speaker 2: of faltering down the stretch. They're basically running back that

413
00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:12,880
Speaker 2: exact same script this season after a tough non con schedule.

414
00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:16,119
Speaker 2: Weaver's awesome though too. On the other side, Dylan Jones

415
00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,960
Speaker 2: a bona fide pro at home, certainly tough place to

416
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 2: go in and play it Outitude Kai a lot of

417
00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 2: good matchup angles here. What's your take on this gun.

418
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,520
Speaker 3: I'm one hundred percent bought in on Eastern Washington. I

419
00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 3: think they're an incredible team, and then they're just flourishing

420
00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:35,920
Speaker 3: right now and Big Sky played number one on defense

421
00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:38,359
Speaker 3: and offense in the league, and I don't really think

422
00:20:38,400 --> 00:20:42,159
Speaker 3: it's a fluke either way. They're buckling down. They have

423
00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 3: tons of size to throw at Jones, and I believe

424
00:20:46,520 --> 00:20:49,520
Speaker 3: David Riley still employs the one three, one zone looks

425
00:20:49,560 --> 00:20:53,760
Speaker 3: as well. Before Eastern Washington make Weaver become shooters, it's

426
00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,240
Speaker 3: a pretty good strategy to beating them. They can shoot,

427
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,639
Speaker 3: that's not their their preferred method of scoring. And offensively,

428
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:03,960
Speaker 3: I buy the hot shooting. I buy the offensive looks

429
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:07,800
Speaker 3: that the lineup combinations they can put on the floor.

430
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,320
Speaker 3: I'm just all over this team right now. Plus five

431
00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:12,400
Speaker 3: I would take. I don't think we're going to get

432
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:16,080
Speaker 3: that though. Gem Unfortunately, Yeah, I'm with you on that number.

433
00:21:16,280 --> 00:21:17,919
Speaker 3: Eastern Washington's just undervalued.

434
00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:18,240
Speaker 2: Still.

435
00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:21,640
Speaker 4: They started the year playing in order at Utah, Mississippi,

436
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:24,960
Speaker 4: Cincinnati at Stanford. As you might know, those are not

437
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:28,119
Speaker 4: close together, so they were running around all over the country.

438
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:31,040
Speaker 4: Came back home and whooped Walla, Walla, and then went

439
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:36,480
Speaker 4: to Utah or Washington State and USC. But yeah, six

440
00:21:36,600 --> 00:21:40,200
Speaker 4: games against power competition on the road, some in just

441
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:43,159
Speaker 4: random parts of the country. I think that kind of

442
00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:46,160
Speaker 4: knocked down what Eastern Washington actually was, and as they've

443
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 4: gotten into playing more similar caliber competition i e. Their

444
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,920
Speaker 4: Big Sky Foes and the Summit League Challenge, they've won

445
00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:57,119
Speaker 4: five in a row against that caliber team. We're just

446
00:21:57,160 --> 00:22:00,280
Speaker 4: seeing what Eastern Washington really is. Matt, and I know

447
00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 4: the d is a tough place to play. We were

448
00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 4: back home coming off two losses. That spot scares me

449
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:06,639
Speaker 4: a little bit. But man, if you're going to give

450
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:08,359
Speaker 4: me five, I'm going to have to take that. I

451
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 4: think this is like a coinput type game.

452
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:13,440
Speaker 2: I agree, I'll probably be on easter washing here. I

453
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 2: think kind of brought up to just how much we

454
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:19,600
Speaker 2: love EWU in general. To your zone point, twenty percent

455
00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,239
Speaker 2: of possessions they're playing zone this year. That's up from

456
00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:24,560
Speaker 2: thirteen percent last year. That's top thirty in the country.

457
00:22:25,040 --> 00:22:27,120
Speaker 2: I'm inclined to think that was mostly against the big boys.

458
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 2: They probably are going to be more open to playing

459
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 2: more man against Weaver. But the key to stop the

460
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:35,680
Speaker 2: key to stopping Weaver among Dylan Jones is stopping Blade's threat,

461
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,160
Speaker 2: who's been kind of their X factor. Maybe his zone's

462
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 2: gonna way to take him out of what he does.

463
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:41,480
Speaker 2: He did not have good games on the road ere

464
00:22:41,480 --> 00:22:44,399
Speaker 2: of those two losses over the weekend. So perhaps a

465
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:48,920
Speaker 2: blueprint for mister Riley in company Ammy Eagles to go

466
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:50,800
Speaker 2: on the road and get a big win there and

467
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,400
Speaker 2: the Big Sky And we alluded to this next game

468
00:22:53,640 --> 00:22:56,639
Speaker 2: earlier in the program. But you see San Diego at

469
00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 2: UC Irvine like the general with this one from a

470
00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,120
Speaker 2: better perspective is like we've all seen. You see San

471
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 2: Diego just go completely nuclear off the chart good And

472
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:09,640
Speaker 2: the prices in the market that you're getting, they they're

473
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:13,320
Speaker 2: never it gets cheaper and cheaper more expensive by the day.

474
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:15,280
Speaker 2: Now you finally get an opportunity I think to back

475
00:23:15,359 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 2: them with a palatable price. Kai Kempom has an a.

476
00:23:19,080 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 2: I bet the market opens a little bit lower, but

477
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:23,399
Speaker 2: not much. It's gonna be tough to say. Again, we

478
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,920
Speaker 2: mentioned the spots for Irvine coming back from Hawaii with

479
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:31,360
Speaker 2: the week off, you see San Diego with less time

480
00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 2: to prep at easier travel. What's your angle here.

481
00:23:34,480 --> 00:23:36,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just think you see San Diego as a

482
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:40,040
Speaker 3: well built team. They don't play like anybody under six three,

483
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:43,720
Speaker 3: six y four. There have length all over the floor.

484
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,159
Speaker 3: They have guys that have played at higher levels like

485
00:23:46,240 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 3: Jeron Brooks was in the PAC twelve, you know, a

486
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,159
Speaker 3: couple of years ago. They're just a good team and

487
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:55,840
Speaker 3: Eric Olin their coach. He's proven time and time again

488
00:23:55,960 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 3: that he sort of outperforms expectations, at least in the

489
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 3: four years he's been in D one and again, I've

490
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:04,920
Speaker 3: surrendered to this team. They didn't always look great in

491
00:24:05,040 --> 00:24:07,240
Speaker 3: the non con but recently they've really put it together.

492
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 3: I don't want to step in front of them, and you, Survine, Well,

493
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:12,840
Speaker 3: I really like this team, and you're right, they're freshmen.

494
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:17,280
Speaker 3: Saren's run. He's been fantastic this season, come out of nowhere.

495
00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:19,480
Speaker 3: I just think they're at the top of their value

496
00:24:19,520 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 3: in the market, and eight points is a ton to

497
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:25,120
Speaker 3: cover in what should be a really competitive game.

498
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think we've already seen the value of Irvine

499
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,120
Speaker 4: be too high. In league play. They haven't covered, They've

500
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 4: they've struggled to do that. Whereas U see San Diego

501
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:36,159
Speaker 4: since they got mister fireball McGee I mentioned twenty one

502
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 4: fifty one from three and seven games. They're seven to

503
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 4: zero against the spread with him in the lineup. They

504
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 4: have been just reeling off great performance after great performance.

505
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,840
Speaker 4: Marcus having a hard time adjusting to just how good

506
00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,760
Speaker 4: they are, and they're good on both ends. Kai mentioned

507
00:24:49,800 --> 00:24:51,919
Speaker 4: the size they're not. They don't have anybody who can

508
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 4: pick on defensively. Crocrail's a nice little quick get into

509
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 4: gaps point guard for uc Irvine, but I think you

510
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 4: can attack him defensively. And Matt, you got a little

511
00:25:01,680 --> 00:25:04,199
Speaker 4: revenge game here for your boy, shamenga.

512
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 3: Shamea, shamega.

513
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:11,480
Speaker 2: You're right, it's a two year removed revenge game. I

514
00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 2: feel like the revenge juices would have been flowing strongest

515
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:16,879
Speaker 2: last year. But now that he's back and healthy this year,

516
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 2: sure he wants to be his old team. They did

517
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 2: beat easier mind last year, so they have conquered this

518
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 2: demon within the last calendar year. But this there's a

519
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 2: lot more on the table this season. And those teams

520
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 2: sitting at a perfect five and zero uh and again,

521
00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:31,960
Speaker 2: just to reiterate, you see hervine zho and three at

522
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 2: home against the spread and conference. Just as you mentioned,

523
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 2: they have not been the same team. Go Tritans.

524
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:42,399
Speaker 4: I'll be betting betting them on the money line to

525
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:44,960
Speaker 4: to the trash Man Pick.

526
00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 2: Of the Week.

527
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 3: The trash Man Pick of the Week I'm the trash man.

528
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 3: Just throw me the trash, your garbage, and you know it.

529
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,160
Speaker 3: Totally unreliable, undependable.

530
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:55,680
Speaker 2: That's it.

531
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 3: You've been told off. How do you like that?

532
00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 2: Good? And yes, the trash pile can continues to stay lean.

533
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 2: I think I might rename this section the Army Pick

534
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:07,679
Speaker 2: or trash Pick of the Week, as they are now

535
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:11,600
Speaker 2: a fixture in this section. They lost to Loyola over

536
00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:15,119
Speaker 2: the weekend seventy want sixty five, but look at their

537
00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 2: possession counts. Every game has been uglier than the prior.

538
00:26:19,119 --> 00:26:20,879
Speaker 2: The only reason they have the only chance they have

539
00:26:20,960 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 2: to go over is if they make shots. They did

540
00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 2: kind of shoot over their heads in that one. But

541
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 2: they play Colgates low and behold this Wednesday. No, obviously,

542
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:30,199
Speaker 2: in a game with Colgate doesn't qualify for trash mp

543
00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 2: Pick of the Week, but given Colgate's trash effort last weekend,

544
00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 2: I thought it was only fair to include them in

545
00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 2: a pin matchup against Army. Should be a kind of

546
00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 2: a low total relative what we're used to seeing from

547
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 2: these two programs. But yeah, the Trashman Pick of the

548
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:47,399
Speaker 2: Week is an Army fixtured section. Now, Kai, do you

549
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:50,800
Speaker 2: have any angle. In a Colgate versus Army handicap.

550
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:53,359
Speaker 3: I'd say buyer beware on taking Army unders though, just

551
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 3: despite the pace they've had three strakeover. The efficiency is

552
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 3: too high in these games. And that's a combination of

553
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:03,359
Speaker 3: this team shoots a ton of threes and they can

554
00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 3: get hot, and even being somewhat competent from there is

555
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 3: enough to overcome these totals that are in the mid

556
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:13,160
Speaker 3: to low one twenties. Secondly, their defense is terrible. Opponents

557
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,240
Speaker 3: can score easily, and that's gonna be the case with Colgate.

558
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:18,720
Speaker 3: It really should be on Wednesday. I would mean towards

559
00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:20,560
Speaker 3: the over in this game. And I've taken a few

560
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:24,880
Speaker 3: Army unders, but Colgate they're gonna play faster in Patriot play.

561
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:26,919
Speaker 3: They know they're the better team in all these games,

562
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 3: and they're gonna score it well against Armies.

563
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:32,400
Speaker 2: Just we're inside here, right that I see inside outside

564
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:32,880
Speaker 2: doesn't matter.

565
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 3: They can do whatever they want. So I would lean

566
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 3: towards the over. If anything in this game, gosh, six

567
00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:39,560
Speaker 3: points and that's really the spread. It won't be Jim,

568
00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:41,160
Speaker 3: but you have to go Colgate.

569
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:43,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I bet it's like eight eight and a half. Yeah,

570
00:27:43,800 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 4: And I will still bet Colgate. I'm going to bet

571
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:48,800
Speaker 4: Colgate almost every Patriot game, probably every Patriot game. I

572
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 4: know they lost at home block yet, but they're also

573
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 4: three and one against the spread in league play, So

574
00:27:54,080 --> 00:27:56,760
Speaker 4: I will take seventy five percent if it means they

575
00:27:56,960 --> 00:28:00,080
Speaker 4: drop one completely embarrassingly. Every once in a while, they

576
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:02,120
Speaker 4: are just better than their opponents. They played a pretty

577
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:04,240
Speaker 4: tough non league Slate, got blown out a few times.

578
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 4: We're figuring out their wing rotation still kind of are

579
00:28:08,560 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 4: lou Jacques has been solid, but they're not like they

580
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 4: don't have that killer on the wing that they've had

581
00:28:13,600 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 4: in the past. But they're dominant inside and they have

582
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:19,080
Speaker 4: a terrific sophomore point guard in Britain Smith. So matt

583
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:23,680
Speaker 4: As Army is still mega, mega young and inconsistent. I

584
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,720
Speaker 4: will go with the proven league juggernaut here and I'll

585
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:27,439
Speaker 4: be bet in Colgate.

586
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 2: Shame on me for picking on our ground troops multiple

587
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:33,239
Speaker 2: weeks in a row in the section. But the other

588
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,119
Speaker 2: one I had for consideration, by the way, was UTEB

589
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:37,960
Speaker 2: hosting Middle Tennessee, two teams I think have kind of

590
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 2: waved a way LAG.

591
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 3: That's a good one, good one at all.

592
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:42,760
Speaker 4: Ugly offenses.

593
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:46,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, kampom has that total I think at one, twenty one,

594
00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:47,760
Speaker 2: twenty three. If I can do yeah on twenty three,

595
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 2: I would go under.

596
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 3: Those are two of the four worst ATS teams in

597
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 3: the country this year. U tep's the worst. Middle Tennessee

598
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 3: is the fourth worst in the country.

599
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 2: Both been bad. Injuries have not helped Middle Tennessee and

600
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 2: inability to shoot at all has hurt U TUP. So

601
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 2: all right, the spotlight section looking at splits macro conference

602
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 2: splits Home versus rowe courtesy of bet Labs. Actually, bet

603
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:17,080
Speaker 2: labs a great tool overall rabid users of breaking down

604
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 2: which teams or which conferences have had the strongest home

605
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 2: court since conference play begin, which has had the I guess,

606
00:29:23,360 --> 00:29:26,760
Speaker 2: worst home court or most road friendly environments. We'll also

607
00:29:26,760 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 2: look at some favorites versus dogs, looking at leagues that

608
00:29:29,280 --> 00:29:31,040
Speaker 2: have had the most parody versus leagues that have had

609
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 2: the haves and the have nots. Starting with home best

610
00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:38,280
Speaker 2: home conferences. To no surprise of anyone, the Big Ten

611
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 2: currently twenty three and fifteen against the number just a

612
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 2: continuation of multiple years of just winning on the road

613
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 2: and covering on the road is extremely hard in each

614
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 2: of these leagues. SECS at fourteen to seven this year.

615
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 2: No surprise there either. The Artist formally known as the Colonial,

616
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 2: the Coastal le fleg Association at eighteen eleven are home teams.

617
00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 2: So far kind of surprising, But then you think about

618
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 2: how the league's been and altered a little bit the

619
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 2: last couple of years. There's new members of geographic territory

620
00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 2: spans of kind of a wider footprint than it used to.

621
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 2: You can understand that it also just could be very early,

622
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:14,120
Speaker 2: small sample size variants. Campbell has been kind of an

623
00:30:14,120 --> 00:30:16,479
Speaker 2: ATS Darling at home this year, just to keep an

624
00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:19,400
Speaker 2: eye on that one going forward. In the Coastal and

625
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 2: then best of the rest WCC at eleven and five,

626
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:25,240
Speaker 2: Big Sky eleven and six, and Big twelve, thirteen and

627
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 2: eight are the home teams there. Fell as any of

628
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 2: those leagues jump out a year any observations, Well.

629
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 3: Sample size is wrong. SEC Twenty one games. There's been

630
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:37,400
Speaker 3: way more than that this season, So I think we

631
00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 3: need to check the bet labs stats there, mister Cox.

632
00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 2: Hold on, here, have there?

633
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 3: I don't know, there's sure every team's played three games.

634
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 4: Yeah, but then you got to cut that number in half.

635
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 4: So fourteen teams played three games. That's forty two games,

636
00:30:51,480 --> 00:30:53,760
Speaker 4: but dave each played each other, so twenty one games. Boom.

637
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 4: I is Matt so hard?

638
00:30:55,960 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 3: Wow? Jim dunking on me? Okay, We're good on the

639
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 3: head on the head. I'm just trying to I'm just

640
00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 3: trying to get the audience the correct stats out there.

641
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 3: I'm looking out for.

642
00:31:08,480 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 2: I'll be honest. I had the I wanted to pile

643
00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 2: on you there too, but I had the exact same

644
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:13,880
Speaker 2: double take before we started the show about five minutes

645
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 2: and I realized that's right, And I think, just another

646
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:18,880
Speaker 2: great endorsement for Bett Labs go out there and purpose.

647
00:31:18,920 --> 00:31:25,000
Speaker 3: If I shouldn't have doubted that, Labs, shame on me. Shame.

648
00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 3: No surprises here, Matt, No surprises, especially it's at SEC.

649
00:31:29,560 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 4: Yeah. And we talked a little bit too, maybe not

650
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:34,000
Speaker 4: in detail in this particular show, but about how these

651
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 4: hype home dog spots where you know you're getting an

652
00:31:37,280 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 4: incredible crowd effort. We've seen those in the Big twelve,

653
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 4: Iowa State TCU taking down Houston, you see, have taken

654
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:46,440
Speaker 4: out Kansas. Love those home dog spots there, and the

655
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 4: SEC has had a couple Arkansas getting smashed at home

656
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:54,080
Speaker 4: against Auburn notwithstanding, and then Big Ten too. Yeah, like

657
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 4: you find those teams catching a few points with the

658
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 4: swelling of the crowd and the emotion, and I think

659
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 4: that is super super helpful. The mid Major ones a

660
00:32:03,760 --> 00:32:05,560
Speaker 4: little harder to clock. I mean, maybe the travel in

661
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 4: the Big Sky WCC as well, But uh, those are

662
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 4: very small sample, sub twenty games. It's not going to

663
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:13,960
Speaker 4: jump on those. I do think those Power Conference teams

664
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 4: finding those really good spots is a is a winning

665
00:32:17,080 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 4: strategy going home and.

666
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 2: For the best road leagues, I guess a great way

667
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 2: to say that. But the one exception of the Power

668
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 2: Conference thing again could be small sample.

669
00:32:25,800 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 3: Sized roads just shocks me. Shocks shocking.

670
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, nineteen and thirteen are road teams against the number

671
00:32:32,240 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 2: so far in Big East play. Now you have some

672
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 2: clustered travel there in the in the Northeast, but still

673
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 2: we've seen some road teams just play well, I mean

674
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 2: just outright. You know, there's some injuries that have kind

675
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:45,720
Speaker 2: of decimated some good, really strong home teams, right, Yukon's

676
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:49,479
Speaker 2: gone through, but what's going but ye, yeah, Providence as well,

677
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:53,320
Speaker 2: So there is some of that at play here. But yeah,

678
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 2: just summing it up. You know, Biggie's not saying it's

679
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 2: gone away, but the road teams have been very feisty today.

680
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 2: The sun Belt is sixty to nine all road teams

681
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 2: in that conference. Very strong home last year, I believe,

682
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 2: so a pretty strong pendulum swing this season, and then

683
00:33:08,840 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 2: Big West seventeen and thirteen nothing really strong and everyone

684
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:14,680
Speaker 2: else has been either at par or worst point being

685
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 2: home has been good this year, right Home core value

686
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 2: has been playing really well in almost all these leagues

687
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:23,880
Speaker 2: for a very slight for a very few exceptions, as

688
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:24,720
Speaker 2: we just mentioned there.

689
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 4: Does that continue mat or do we feel like as

690
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:31,680
Speaker 4: you hit late January into February, is it more doldrums

691
00:33:31,720 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 4: for the home teams and the crowds and the hype

692
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 4: spots and the refs are getting used to getting influenced

693
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,800
Speaker 4: by crowds or does the home continue to be strong

694
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:41,600
Speaker 4: through all that game.

695
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 2: I don't know, God, dang, I don't know if you

696
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 2: have the answer, And if I had the answer, I

697
00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 2: certainly wouldn't be to know. It is sort of the

698
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 2: market will adjust and probably maybe overbt it like we

699
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,800
Speaker 2: saw even this weekend. Man, they bet every every hometown,

700
00:33:53,840 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 2: every home team, and maybe not and again not enough

701
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:59,760
Speaker 2: in some cases. In February, I got to think the

702
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 2: whole could be even stronger, but the market will maybe

703
00:34:02,240 --> 00:34:05,280
Speaker 2: over just about that point. Chasing trends is always an

704
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,280
Speaker 2: icy and slippery slope. Do so at your own peril,

705
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:10,880
Speaker 2: but be aware of them so you're not caught blindsided

706
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:12,680
Speaker 2: when you've been betting road teams all year in the

707
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:14,320
Speaker 2: Big ten and like, what the crap? Why am I

708
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:16,279
Speaker 2: winning and bets on the big town? Well that's why. Yeah,

709
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:18,319
Speaker 2: So that's sort of the context in which we share

710
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 2: this stuff.

711
00:34:19,320 --> 00:34:21,840
Speaker 4: It's on auto bet home teams. It's if you're on

712
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:23,480
Speaker 4: a road team, you better like them a lot.

713
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:26,839
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's kind of I would also try to contextualize

714
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 3: just leagues and if it makes sense, right, the Sunbelt,

715
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 3: the travel is kind of weird, but yeah, there's parody everywhere.

716
00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 3: Like all these teams are basically within a naota of

717
00:34:36,360 --> 00:34:38,960
Speaker 3: each other, So I buy it. Big West, every team's

718
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:41,920
Speaker 3: in California. Travel is not that bad, right, So those

719
00:34:42,000 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 3: kind of makes sense to me. The Big East one,

720
00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:45,879
Speaker 3: we said, it doesn't make sense unless it's to Paul

721
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 3: and Georgetown. Even then, Georgetown's like one and two against

722
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 3: the spread at home. They're not rolling over to Paul this,

723
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 3: But those type of things I try to think about.

724
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,359
Speaker 3: I'm like, Okay, is this just a sample size error

725
00:34:57,520 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 3: or is this you know, a lasting core unquote trend

726
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:03,239
Speaker 3: or something that there's a reason to it, right, not

727
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:04,800
Speaker 3: just to blind sample size.

728
00:35:05,760 --> 00:35:08,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, I have to be able to rationalize it, explain

729
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 4: why it's relevant. Like there's some trends out there that

730
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:15,359
Speaker 4: people sell constantly, and yes there's no logic behind them,

731
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 4: so make sure you're thinking things through.

732
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, speaking of parody, let's get to the leagues where

733
00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:23,080
Speaker 2: underdogs have performed the best. And this is going to

734
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 2: be largely correlated with road teams obviously, but still three

735
00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 2: that jumped out to me at the top of the

736
00:35:28,520 --> 00:35:32,480
Speaker 2: list were three team just really competitive leagues with a

737
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:36,799
Speaker 2: very clear strong middle mush. But then not a ton

738
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 2: at the top, but not a ton of deadweight fat

739
00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 2: at the bottom either. The Pac twelve underdogs are twenty

740
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:47,520
Speaker 2: three and ten in their swan song season, so everyone

741
00:35:47,680 --> 00:35:50,239
Speaker 2: is fighting tooth and nail to the end in that

742
00:35:50,360 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 2: league this year, and just in general, you've seen like

743
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:56,239
Speaker 2: even Arizona look vulnerable. You've seen, you know, the expected

744
00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 2: favorites not be as dominant as you would have thought.

745
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:01,480
Speaker 2: So far, the eight ten at nineteen and eight against

746
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:03,600
Speaker 2: the number are road teams. That makes total sense to me.

747
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:05,200
Speaker 4: Not road teams. Underdogs.

748
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 2: I'm sorry, underdogs. Thank you underdogs other than Dayton, I mean,

749
00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:11,319
Speaker 2: everyone's just pretty good in that conference to really good.

750
00:36:12,160 --> 00:36:14,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, twelve teams are between ninety and one. Ninety and

751
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 3: kim Pum so it's like, I'll do it, margins.

752
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 2: Fordham is pretty good and they might be the worst

753
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 2: in that league. That's just kind of the context is

754
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 2: probably the sal at this point. But still get there's

755
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:26,320
Speaker 2: really no just complete auto victories at any point in

756
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,320
Speaker 2: the schedule there In the MAC, the Mid American another

757
00:36:29,719 --> 00:36:32,440
Speaker 2: very parody ridden league, especially this season. I just think

758
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 2: there's a lot of talent experience. During this offseason, there

759
00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 2: is gonna be a general reshuffling of the garden. Like

760
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 2: teams like Central Michigan are like kind of good. Eastern

761
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:42,440
Speaker 2: Michigan's winning a game or two.

762
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll be compared to the past. Man, this is

763
00:36:44,840 --> 00:36:48,239
Speaker 4: like Okay, Kent State, Toledo, Ohio, Akron, and then.

764
00:36:48,200 --> 00:36:50,920
Speaker 2: The rest everybody else, yes, and Ohio's.

765
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 4: Got three league losses already, Kent State's got three league

766
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 4: glasses already. Like there is much more parody in that

767
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:57,960
Speaker 4: conference this year. And honestly, that like just clicked for

768
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:00,320
Speaker 4: me over this weekend, like just looking at some of

769
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 4: that and some of the dog records, like, oh, there's

770
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:06,520
Speaker 4: more evenly balanced teams going on in the MAC right now,

771
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:09,720
Speaker 4: and had to adjust my betting strategy accordingly.

772
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 2: I mean, Toledo, they are four and oh, but they

773
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:15,359
Speaker 2: won by four at home against Miami of Ohio last

774
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:18,080
Speaker 2: week and then they just recently skated by ball stayed

775
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:20,279
Speaker 2: at home too, So I mean, like the rocket ships

776
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 2: you beat everybody by twenty last year are still really good,

777
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:28,360
Speaker 2: but not as nuclear as we've seen fellas. That is

778
00:37:28,440 --> 00:37:31,879
Speaker 2: all our program has for today. Thank you for stopping Bye,

779
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:34,760
Speaker 2: come back next week and join us on another episode

780
00:37:34,800 --> 00:37:51,320
Speaker 2: of the Big Bets on Campus. Action Network reminds you

781
00:37:51,760 --> 00:37:55,400
Speaker 2: please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about

782
00:37:55,440 --> 00:37:58,320
Speaker 2: has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four to

783
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:00,319
Speaker 2: seven at one eight hundred gam a blur