WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 3 Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:12.920 Check it down Man Now down Man, Thursday September twenty 0:00:13.039 --> 0:00:17.920 twenty and meeting the book podcast megapod skill Alexander Uh 0:00:18.000 --> 0:00:21.160 you know how this works? Week three of the National 0:00:21.400 --> 0:00:24.079 Football League. The staples of the show here in the 0:00:24.079 --> 0:00:27.320 past year and change to my left, live at the day, 0:00:27.360 --> 0:00:28.720 and we're so happy to be live at the d 0:00:28.840 --> 0:00:31.200 R second week ever, live at the date. By way, 0:00:31.200 --> 0:00:32.599 the audio sounds great. Do you think by the end 0:00:32.600 --> 0:00:33.800 of the year we'll have a crowd here at today 0:00:33.840 --> 0:00:35.440 I'm on a Thursday. At the end of the year, 0:00:35.440 --> 0:00:37.400 we'll have a crowd at ten am at circa. Oh 0:00:37.440 --> 0:00:40.720 at circa. Yes, it's Mike Palm. Everybody, how you doing? 0:00:40.760 --> 0:00:43.960 My great And I'm so happy that Todd uh found 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:46.680 town found time to join us this week. Thank you Todd, 0:00:47.040 --> 0:00:51.280 Thank you Todd wish Now I won't respond to the 0:00:51.400 --> 0:00:54.920 verbal Dave Schultz. If everybody remembers the cheap shot artist 0:00:54.960 --> 0:00:58.200 of the NHL, Dave Schultz, there's the verbal cheap shot artist, 0:00:58.320 --> 0:01:01.360 Mikey Palm, who was almost as bad as Dave Schultz 0:01:01.400 --> 0:01:03.600 of the National Hockey League. Since he loves hockey, I 0:01:03.600 --> 0:01:06.040 gave him a hockey example. Now I happened to miss 0:01:06.160 --> 0:01:09.880 last week's episode because I didn't realize that we had 0:01:09.920 --> 0:01:12.320 a set time yet for this season. I'm sure Gilly 0:01:12.360 --> 0:01:14.640 Ice will call me on that and pretend that somehow 0:01:14.680 --> 0:01:17.080 there was actually a set time when last week it 0:01:17.120 --> 0:01:20.920 was all over the place. But whatever, I will be. Um, 0:01:21.000 --> 0:01:24.319 you know, a martyr in this situation, and I'm here 0:01:24.400 --> 0:01:26.720 to give you just winning kids. Todd, that was just 0:01:26.760 --> 0:01:28.560 the intro. We have a lot to get to, but 0:01:28.640 --> 0:01:31.760 thank you for that. Uh. We usually have a rotating guest. 0:01:32.080 --> 0:01:36.840 I feel bad even calling this guy a rotating guest 0:01:36.880 --> 0:01:41.360 because it is upon his shoulders that this megapod was built. 0:01:41.959 --> 0:01:43.880 But we are thrilled to have him back as a 0:01:43.920 --> 0:01:46.800 guest today. Uh. And there was a groundswell of support 0:01:46.840 --> 0:01:49.560 on Twitter for it as well. I'm getting texts about it. 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:52.080 Is he on? Is he on? I can't wait to 0:01:52.080 --> 0:01:54.840 hear him say these things. Uh, Ladies and gentlemen, you 0:01:54.880 --> 0:01:57.080 have known him as Vegas Runner in the past. Uh. 0:01:57.160 --> 0:01:59.760 He is my buddy, Ace. How you doing Ace, great 0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:03.000 to have you here. Never better, brother, never better. God 0:02:03.000 --> 0:02:05.960 bless America. Thanks for having me on. You know this 0:02:06.040 --> 0:02:08.840 is my favorite besides the fact I was on for 0:02:08.919 --> 0:02:12.840 so long, so obviously it was my favorite show still is. 0:02:13.000 --> 0:02:14.720 I listened to you guys all the time. You know, 0:02:14.760 --> 0:02:18.519 I'm a fan, and obviously Vison who doesn't drive around 0:02:18.520 --> 0:02:22.000 with that on all the time. So thanks for having 0:02:22.080 --> 0:02:25.720 me sofully. We give some winners to them, yes, hopefully 0:02:25.760 --> 0:02:27.360 we get some winners. And the reason you are not 0:02:27.680 --> 0:02:29.640 here at the d with Mike and because you're here 0:02:29.639 --> 0:02:31.600 in Las Vegas explained to folks, you are in a 0:02:31.720 --> 0:02:36.400 sort of pseudo quarantine. Yes, because I go to the UFC, 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:41.000 the Performance Institute and the APEX and do um content 0:02:41.160 --> 0:02:45.760 for them, do videos and social media hits and their 0:02:46.000 --> 0:02:48.320 stuff they're doing this week with their pay per view 0:02:48.360 --> 0:02:51.520 the big card in Albu Dhabi. So I have to 0:02:51.560 --> 0:02:54.240 get tested. And since I live here, I don't have 0:02:54.280 --> 0:02:56.320 to stay at the hotel like a lot of the 0:02:56.520 --> 0:02:59.000 fighters and staff that come in from out of state do. 0:02:59.400 --> 0:03:01.400 I'm able to stay at home, but I have to 0:03:01.480 --> 0:03:04.679 sign a waiver that I will not leave and that 0:03:04.800 --> 0:03:07.320 I will stay quarantine. So I've been doing that and 0:03:07.360 --> 0:03:13.799 it's been going well. Remember when, yeah, I remember when 0:03:13.800 --> 0:03:15.799 you first got the gig. Man, I'm happy for you then, 0:03:15.800 --> 0:03:18.560 and you're right, you know stay there, uh so that 0:03:18.639 --> 0:03:21.520 you don't get any of the fighters. Uh positive exactly, 0:03:21.600 --> 0:03:23.760 but you are not positive yourself. Just to clarify, you 0:03:23.800 --> 0:03:25.959 are not positively. No, no, no, thank god. I get 0:03:25.960 --> 0:03:28.760 tested a couple of times a week, so if anything, 0:03:28.840 --> 0:03:31.440 it's a it's a luxury because I get to know 0:03:31.520 --> 0:03:33.360 that I'm I don't have it. A couple of times 0:03:33.360 --> 0:03:36.000 I woke up for analergies not feeling good. I'm like, 0:03:36.000 --> 0:03:38.040 oh my god, I hope I didn't catch it, and 0:03:38.040 --> 0:03:40.280 the unfortunately, you know, I know, I'm getting tested a 0:03:40.280 --> 0:03:43.320 couple of hours later, so you get the results. Thank god. Well, 0:03:43.360 --> 0:03:44.840 I'm pumped to have you here. Man, it's great to 0:03:44.840 --> 0:03:46.840 see your face. Let's thank you for having Let's do 0:03:46.880 --> 0:03:49.120 this starting with Thursday night football before we get to 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:52.280 our best bets. Maybe this might be somebody's won through 0:03:52.320 --> 0:03:55.040 three best bets. But it's a Thursday night football game, 0:03:55.080 --> 0:03:57.960 not exactly like the sexiest matchup there is. But it's 0:03:57.960 --> 0:04:01.920 Miami and Jacksonville. Miami O and who after losing the 0:04:01.960 --> 0:04:04.920 Buffalo though covering as a dog, but O and two 0:04:04.960 --> 0:04:07.960 in the standings Jacksonville's one in one. They've covered both 0:04:08.040 --> 0:04:11.920 of their games, could have perhaps one last week, but 0:04:11.960 --> 0:04:15.360 they got Gaskowski at the end by Tennessee. So Jacksonville 0:04:15.400 --> 0:04:19.360 after beating uh the Indianapolis Colts week one, their one 0:04:19.360 --> 0:04:24.920 and one Jacksonville favored by three. ACE. We start with 0:04:24.960 --> 0:04:28.960 you because you're the guests. That's odd. What do you 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:32.000 think anything tell you? Yeah, I tell you when I win, 0:04:32.080 --> 0:04:34.120 when I lose, and I'll tell you when I placed 0:04:34.120 --> 0:04:36.280 the bad bet. And I got involved on this game 0:04:36.279 --> 0:04:39.800 already at a bad number. I went on thet when 0:04:39.839 --> 0:04:42.279 I sold this total climb from forty four all the 0:04:42.279 --> 0:04:44.760 way forty eight. I didn't think he's gonna get much 0:04:44.839 --> 0:04:47.920 higher than that. I know that the problems on defensive 0:04:47.960 --> 0:04:50.719 side of the football, I know the injuries on the 0:04:50.760 --> 0:04:54.320 defensive side of the football, but this is still unprecedented 0:04:54.400 --> 0:04:57.600 territory for both these teams. Just look back over their 0:04:57.680 --> 0:05:01.440 last ten plus regular season game. I don't think jackson 0:05:01.480 --> 0:05:05.680 Bill's had a total above forty seven forty eight maybe once. 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:08.840 I don't think Miami even had that once in their 0:05:08.880 --> 0:05:12.560 last ten plus regular season games. Um So, for me, 0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:17.200 I thought it was a case of recency bias and 0:05:17.360 --> 0:05:19.920 Sharps getting out ahead of the market. We've seen these 0:05:19.920 --> 0:05:24.120 primetime games flying over to total. The narrative is points 0:05:24.520 --> 0:05:26.839 even though it's a Thursday night game with less time 0:05:26.880 --> 0:05:30.040 to prepare, So it looks like I took a bad number. 0:05:30.040 --> 0:05:31.400 And I know there's a lot of short money on 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:34.200 the over, but I'm on under forty eight here in 0:05:34.240 --> 0:05:36.880 the totals twenty nine, so you know you may not 0:05:36.920 --> 0:05:39.040 want to pay you back that one under forty Is 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:40.599 that one of your three best bets? Or that just 0:05:40.640 --> 0:05:43.560 a bet? Because okay, so just the Thursday bet on 0:05:43.600 --> 0:05:47.120 an undert uh, Todd or Mike anything on this one 0:05:47.120 --> 0:05:50.920 tonight Mike, Yes, okay, Todd. You first, I'm sorry. I apologize. 0:05:51.000 --> 0:05:53.200 I said under Mike, and then you're gonna complain that 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:55.120 I know. I said sunder Mike, and then I went Mike, 0:05:55.200 --> 0:05:56.960 but you jumped in. That's okay, go ahead, what do 0:05:57.000 --> 0:06:01.680 you say? Look, he can dish, he cannot save. It's unbelievable. 0:06:01.839 --> 0:06:05.000 It's unbelievable. I can receive. Just find my friend. I 0:06:05.040 --> 0:06:08.679 had over a hundred catches last season. Uh, here's the deal. 0:06:09.000 --> 0:06:11.279 I would like to use one of these. This pick 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:14.520 with this game is one of my three picks. I'm 0:06:14.560 --> 0:06:20.800 gonna go with that's right, folks, Miami Dolphins, Miami Dolphins, 0:06:20.920 --> 0:06:25.040 Miami Dolphins number one. I'm sorry, since since you've left, 0:06:25.080 --> 0:06:28.680 it's gone to hell A, so I'm sorry. Apologize. Go ahead, 0:06:28.720 --> 0:06:33.200 DoD Miami. I have Miami Dolphins plus the three tonight. 0:06:34.200 --> 0:06:37.680 I believe they're the type of teams that just hangs around, 0:06:38.200 --> 0:06:41.440 hanging around, like from Rounders. They just hang around like 0:06:41.560 --> 0:06:44.120 alligate their blood. This guy, you can't get rid of them. 0:06:44.360 --> 0:06:47.480 They just hang around in games, and I think they 0:06:47.520 --> 0:06:50.480 can hang around with the Jacksonville team. They're getting three points, 0:06:50.520 --> 0:06:53.520 three points in the National Who's Jacksonville? Who's all of 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:55.920 a sudden Jacksonville is good? To me? This is just 0:06:55.960 --> 0:06:58.680 a toss up game. I'm getting three points. There's probably 0:06:58.680 --> 0:07:01.560 no home field advantag Jean Jacksonville even when they do 0:07:01.640 --> 0:07:05.320 have fans, and now that they don't have fans, Ryan 0:07:05.360 --> 0:07:09.039 Fitzpatrick can keep you in the game. Backdoors always open 0:07:09.080 --> 0:07:11.600 with Ryan Fitzpatrick. I believe he backdoor for the cover 0:07:11.720 --> 0:07:14.680 for me last week. And I'm getting three points. I mean, 0:07:15.120 --> 0:07:19.000 who's the Jacksonville Jaguars. Miami continues to continue to try 0:07:19.040 --> 0:07:21.800 every single week, play people tough, even the game they 0:07:21.840 --> 0:07:24.080 lost to New England. The beginning of the year wasn't 0:07:24.280 --> 0:07:26.720 a wipe out. They were hanging around in that game. 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:29.400 They hung around with a decent Buffalo team last week. 0:07:29.520 --> 0:07:31.680 White can't to hang around with Jacksonville. Maybe they can 0:07:31.760 --> 0:07:34.480 even win the game. Give me Miami plus three, Miami 0:07:34.520 --> 0:07:37.480 plus three, todd one of number one, number two or 0:07:37.520 --> 0:07:41.000 number three, best bet for you. I'm gonna make it, 0:07:41.680 --> 0:07:47.320 uh number two, number two for Toddy, Miami Dolphins. Anything 0:07:47.320 --> 0:07:48.960 for you to say, no, I'm not gonna play the game, 0:07:49.040 --> 0:07:52.600 gil Um. I really haven't watched much of Miami this 0:07:52.680 --> 0:07:55.600 year a little bit because of the two lightning delays. 0:07:55.640 --> 0:07:57.040 They kind of got a little bit of air time 0:07:57.080 --> 0:08:00.520 with the one o'clocks against Buffalo last week, But I 0:08:00.560 --> 0:08:04.080 really don't know a lot about them, And uh, look 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:06.040 at this Minster has been pretty good. Yeah, I mean 0:08:06.160 --> 0:08:08.200 he really has. They had the ball with three and 0:08:08.240 --> 0:08:09.640 a half minutes to go with the chance to go 0:08:09.640 --> 0:08:12.640 down and win that game tied at Tennessee. So um, 0:08:12.680 --> 0:08:15.040 I just got comfortable with this number laying a whole 0:08:15.040 --> 0:08:17.400 field goal. Uh, the game was closer to a pick, 0:08:17.440 --> 0:08:19.680 I would probably lean jackson Bill, but as it is, 0:08:19.760 --> 0:08:21.880 it's a pass for me. It's passed for me as well. 0:08:22.000 --> 0:08:25.080 Let's go to the best bets. Ace your number one 0:08:25.400 --> 0:08:29.880 best bet on the board this week, sir. Not surprisingly, 0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:32.760 I like a lot on this week's board. It's week three, 0:08:32.840 --> 0:08:35.240 so now we have a good enough sample size that 0:08:35.600 --> 0:08:40.240 there's locks just popping off that board the Sunday night 0:08:41.000 --> 0:08:43.560 no more value than the New Orleans Saints over Green 0:08:43.640 --> 0:08:46.880 Bay Packers. This should be six on a neutral let 0:08:46.920 --> 0:08:49.600 alone at home in New Orleans. Forget what you saw 0:08:49.720 --> 0:08:52.600 Monday night with the hundred plus penalty yards and the 0:08:52.679 --> 0:08:55.760 Raiders with their home opener and allegiance who didn't see 0:08:55.800 --> 0:09:01.000 that coming Brad six days before that Monday. Um So, 0:09:01.240 --> 0:09:04.280 if anything, I think this Green Bay team, Listen, we 0:09:04.400 --> 0:09:08.040 talked to coming into the season last year they were 0:09:08.080 --> 0:09:12.880 the most overperforming team based on their analytics. This year 0:09:12.960 --> 0:09:16.720 they're doing it again right, and we're expecting the regression 0:09:17.480 --> 0:09:19.760 they're expect. There's they were supposed to be too a 0:09:19.840 --> 0:09:22.880 no coming into this game. The thing is they've made 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:27.240 it books so easy, scoring forty plus points covering light 0:09:27.320 --> 0:09:31.280 they have, but it's that a TS differential that sticks 0:09:31.320 --> 0:09:34.880 out to me. This team is now plus twenty four points. 0:09:34.920 --> 0:09:39.040 They've outperformed the betting market. They're catching points in New Orleans. 0:09:39.280 --> 0:09:41.800 They should be catching a lot more. But that's the 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:45.120 only reason it isn't the case. UM. As long as 0:09:45.160 --> 0:09:48.880 New Orleans is a little more discipline this week, I 0:09:48.920 --> 0:09:51.360 don't think they're gonna have any problems beating the Green 0:09:51.400 --> 0:09:57.000 Bay Packers, who, again I just think are an overvalued team. UM, 0:09:57.040 --> 0:10:00.440 and the regression isn't gonna come. I expect think too. 0:10:00.480 --> 0:10:03.719 I think most expected it too. And again they are 0:10:03.800 --> 0:10:08.199 just playing above their ceiling. I think that eventually crashes. 0:10:08.600 --> 0:10:11.880 No better time than Sunday night foot Bowl in New Orleans. 0:10:12.120 --> 0:10:14.160 You have always loved the New Orleans Saints. I know 0:10:14.240 --> 0:10:16.040 you've been to games there. By the way. One other 0:10:16.080 --> 0:10:20.200 thing that might help you out here, Davante Adams feeling better, 0:10:20.440 --> 0:10:24.040 but still too early to tell if he'll play Sunday. 0:10:24.120 --> 0:10:27.000 Aaron Rodgers number one target for the Green Bay Packers, 0:10:27.080 --> 0:10:30.160 so ace with New Orleans minus three as his number 0:10:30.160 --> 0:10:34.240 one pick. Mikey, you're number one. You know My favorite 0:10:34.280 --> 0:10:37.560 fifteen minutes of the week each week, uh is when 0:10:37.600 --> 0:10:40.680 Michael Lombardi goes on a numbers game, Because I mean, 0:10:41.320 --> 0:10:44.120 Gil is always so well prepared. I mean the questions 0:10:44.120 --> 0:10:48.680 are pullet and after week one, Gill asked him, isn't 0:10:48.720 --> 0:10:51.719 this Vikings team a sneaky five and eleven? They might 0:10:51.720 --> 0:10:54.480 be a sneaky three and thirteen team. This team is 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:58.640 god awful. I watched the entire game against the Colts 0:10:58.760 --> 0:11:02.000 end gaming under. I mean they are how come when 0:11:02.080 --> 0:11:04.040 they have the ball on their own one they call 0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:06.439 play action with the seventh step drop every week and 0:11:06.520 --> 0:11:09.360 get him sacked here. I mean they're terrible. They don't 0:11:09.400 --> 0:11:11.360 even want him to pass. The problem is they get 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:14.120 behind in the games because there's nobody left on their defense. 0:11:14.520 --> 0:11:16.920 This is incredible. I think they win three or four 0:11:17.000 --> 0:11:18.800 games this year. I love that I don't have to 0:11:18.880 --> 0:11:20.360 lay more than a field goal. They don't get that 0:11:20.400 --> 0:11:23.240 home field advantage now this year. That's a tremendous Britt 0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:26.760 talked about it in tremendously intimidating place to play. That's gone. 0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:29.400 I'll take Tennessee and I'll lay the two and a half. 0:11:29.480 --> 0:11:31.560 Is my best bet, Todd. I'm gonna step in here 0:11:31.640 --> 0:11:34.800 because I, once again Mikey and I have the exact 0:11:34.840 --> 0:11:38.200 same first best bet. Uh in fact, on guessing lines 0:11:38.200 --> 0:11:41.800 on Monday with Chris Andrews. When I guess this, I 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:45.000 said Tennessee minus four and a half. And when he 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:49.839 said it was under three, I was pretty incredulous about that. Uh. 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:52.360 Kirk Cousins, I'll take off the glasses carwkite style to 0:11:52.400 --> 0:11:56.800 read this. Kirk Cousins zero point zero passer rating late 0:11:56.880 --> 0:12:00.719 into the third quarter last week? Is that good? Zero zero? Uh? 0:12:00.720 --> 0:12:03.360 He ended fifteen point nine with an fifteen point nine 0:12:03.360 --> 0:12:06.400 passer reading. Remember that's out of one fifty eight point three. 0:12:06.840 --> 0:12:09.800 Little statistical note quirky. The Vikings have actually taken a 0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:15.240 safety in three straight games. How amazing is that? That's incredible? 0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:18.080 Going back to last season's regular Cuifinale. But they had 0:12:18.080 --> 0:12:20.800 a hundred and seventy five total yards of offense last 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:23.560 week in their game, there were two of nine on 0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:27.360 third downs and usually tom of possession. Typically tom of 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:30.400 possession doesn't mean much, but in that game it did. 0:12:30.720 --> 0:12:33.000 They only had the ball for twenty one minutes and 0:12:33.120 --> 0:12:36.960 thirty five seconds left. Who they played last week twenty 0:12:37.000 --> 0:12:39.720 one minutes and thirty five seconds Now Anthony Barr already 0:12:39.720 --> 0:12:42.679 with the shoulder injury. They've generated no pass rush to 0:12:42.760 --> 0:12:46.080 speak of their Corners. They're there, guys in their secondary 0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:50.120 are too young. Give me the Titans. What's the number 0:12:50.120 --> 0:12:54.120 on that? What's the official number? Let's see Titans minus 0:12:54.160 --> 0:12:56.160 two and a half. That is also my first bet, Todd. 0:12:57.800 --> 0:12:59.520 You know, I looked at that game and I just 0:12:59.559 --> 0:13:02.680 thought to myself, this smells like the game that everybody's 0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:05.840 gonna be on. And I've watched too much National Football 0:13:05.920 --> 0:13:09.199 League football to know there's nothing easy in the world 0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:12.280 of the National Football League. It looks too easy. And 0:13:12.320 --> 0:13:15.040 I agree with everything you both said. I couldn't agree 0:13:15.040 --> 0:13:17.120 with you more. I think the Vikings stink. In fact, 0:13:17.200 --> 0:13:19.560 last year I thought the Vikings stunk when Mike loved 0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:22.600 him in uh in the Visa studio and I had 0:13:22.640 --> 0:13:25.760 to upgrade him on thinking that Kirk Cousins was actually 0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:28.760 gonna do something good for them. I never like Kirk Cousins. 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:32.120 The Vikings stink. I agree with you guys a thousand percent, 0:13:32.480 --> 0:13:36.239 but it's too easy. I'm passing on that game instead 0:13:37.280 --> 0:13:41.960 going with my best bet. I'm gonna pull up Gilly 0:13:42.200 --> 0:13:48.720 Alexander's Washington Redskins against the Cleveland Browns over the points. 0:13:51.920 --> 0:13:55.959 Faked this out. I don't want the Redskins. I mean, 0:13:55.960 --> 0:13:58.280 I don't want the Washington football team or whatever they 0:13:58.280 --> 0:14:01.439 call that team. I don't m Haskins. I don't want him. 0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:05.480 But I do want the over forty five in the game. 0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:08.480 And here's why I want it. The Cleveland Browns can 0:14:08.559 --> 0:14:11.120 move the football. They give that ball to Chub, they 0:14:11.240 --> 0:14:14.240 run right down the field. Washington ain't gonna be able 0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:16.200 to stop them. They showed they don't have a decent 0:14:16.240 --> 0:14:18.800 defense last week against Arizona. I think Cleveland's gonna get 0:14:18.840 --> 0:14:21.320 your points, and I don't. It wasn't very impressed with 0:14:21.320 --> 0:14:24.280 Cleveland Browns defense at all. I think the Redskins might 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:27.720 get you some Lake garbage touchdowns. Forty five give me 0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:30.320 the over. The National Football League is a points league 0:14:30.360 --> 0:14:33.200 this year. It's points points points. Give me the over. 0:14:33.440 --> 0:14:37.480 Washington Redskins, Cleveland Browns, alright over forty five for the 0:14:37.520 --> 0:14:40.320 Washington football team in the Cleveland Browns. Yeah, Redskins offense 0:14:40.360 --> 0:14:43.400 has just been terrible. Uh. Front seven is great, but 0:14:43.440 --> 0:14:45.400 that's the strength of that football team. For the Redskins 0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:47.680 to win games, they gotta keep the opponent to like seventeen. 0:14:48.280 --> 0:14:51.520 But you're not playing the side here. Forty five over 0:14:51.680 --> 0:14:57.400 on that ace. Best bet number two, Sir, I'm gonna 0:14:57.400 --> 0:15:01.760 go to total bet. Yeah. We took first half end 0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:03.800 game on this and I'll get this one. Is the 0:15:03.800 --> 0:15:08.520 second bet at Detroit Arizona over at fifty five. As 0:15:08.560 --> 0:15:12.800 long as it's still fifty five, I like that. Yeah, yeah, 0:15:12.880 --> 0:15:14.960 and the first half I think we got twenty five 0:15:15.040 --> 0:15:16.840 or twenty five and a half. But anyway to fifty 0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:20.360 five over is the best bet number two. Um, Like 0:15:20.440 --> 0:15:23.160 we've seen Detroit defense is just gonna get let up 0:15:23.200 --> 0:15:26.560 a lot of points this year. Most expected them to 0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:31.800 progress and take a step forward, and they just haven't 0:15:31.840 --> 0:15:34.520 done that, especially on the defensive side of the ball, 0:15:34.720 --> 0:15:38.680 where Arizona, if anything, this offense is gonna have a 0:15:38.680 --> 0:15:42.600 ton of success now another season under their belt, with 0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:46.760 that coaching staff, with a young quarterback. UM, And I 0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:50.080 think that defense is played well, but it's the offenses 0:15:50.120 --> 0:15:52.240 they faced. You know, they had a San Fran team 0:15:52.240 --> 0:15:55.840 in first first week and then Washington last week. That's 0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:58.440 not too difficult to keep them to less than twenty points. 0:15:58.680 --> 0:16:01.360 But I do think Detroit I will be able to 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:04.840 get some points on the board even when they lose games. 0:16:05.120 --> 0:16:08.400 Detroit's capable of scorn like we saw against Dallas last 0:16:08.480 --> 0:16:11.120 year where they lose by a touchdown, but they put 0:16:11.200 --> 0:16:13.240 up four of their own, and I think it's gonna 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:16.480 be that kind of season for Detroit. So I'm gonna 0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:19.680 go overft is my second best bet over fifty five 0:16:19.720 --> 0:16:22.960 Detroit Arizona, a rematch of their Week one tie last 0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:26.680 year where where the Lions snatched a tie from the 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:30.520 from the jaws of victory. Mikey number two. How come 0:16:30.560 --> 0:16:34.040 nobody calls out Matt Stafford, I'm just on ace. I mean, 0:16:34.480 --> 0:16:36.880 some of the decisions he makes are and nobody says 0:16:36.920 --> 0:16:40.000 anything well because his coach is so bad that we 0:16:40.080 --> 0:16:44.320 forget right by the way, before last week's game, thirty 0:16:44.760 --> 0:16:48.600 three games that Matt Patricia has coached, they have squandered 0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:51.960 eleven fourth quarter leads, so one out of every three 0:16:52.000 --> 0:16:54.680 games prior to last week. Just it's just, I mean, 0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:59.040 at some point, so I wish is gil what is? 0:16:59.280 --> 0:17:02.880 Patricia has a big meal at halftime, and he's just 0:17:02.960 --> 0:17:04.560 not as sharp in the second half, as you can 0:17:04.600 --> 0:17:09.120 see by his giant belly hangings. That could be We'll 0:17:09.119 --> 0:17:11.800 look into nothing worse than a reformed tour, I'll tell 0:17:11.800 --> 0:17:20.119 you that right now. My second pick is gonna be 0:17:20.200 --> 0:17:25.000 the Denver Broncos getting six points at home to Tampa Bay. 0:17:25.119 --> 0:17:27.359 I'm still gonna follow that. I know we lost, this 0:17:27.440 --> 0:17:29.560 was our only lost last week, Todd taking the nine 0:17:29.560 --> 0:17:32.520 against Brady with Carolina, But I'm gonna I tell you 0:17:32.520 --> 0:17:34.000 we were in a position to win that game if 0:17:34.080 --> 0:17:35.760 they don't break that run when they're trying to run 0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:38.280 out the clock. First of all, we shouldn't have been 0:17:38.280 --> 0:17:40.800 in a position to cover. They were being totally dominated 0:17:40.800 --> 0:17:43.160 down twenty one to nothing, and they turned the ball 0:17:43.200 --> 0:17:44.600 over and they got right back in the game. I 0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:47.639 thought Jeff Driscoll outplayed Roethlisberger in the second half of 0:17:47.640 --> 0:17:49.760 that game, and it looks like he's an upgrade for 0:17:49.760 --> 0:17:53.879 the Broncos. There's certainly no drop off. There is not, 0:17:54.000 --> 0:17:57.080 and Fancio is a defensive coach. They've made both teams 0:17:57.080 --> 0:17:59.000 work to move the ball that they played. Tennessee had 0:17:59.040 --> 0:18:01.480 to work to move the ball those games. Pittsburgh had 0:18:01.520 --> 0:18:02.960 to work. They're lucky to come out of there with 0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:06.000 the win last week. I just couldn't believe this number 0:18:06.080 --> 0:18:08.160 is six. I think that Denver's got a real chance 0:18:08.160 --> 0:18:10.680 to win this game. It's tough to go to altitude 0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:12.840 and play. Tom didn't have to do it that many 0:18:12.880 --> 0:18:14.840 times outside of the playoffs, and the last time he 0:18:14.880 --> 0:18:16.520 went there, they beat the living hell out of him 0:18:16.520 --> 0:18:18.680 in the n f C Championship game. I'm gonna take 0:18:18.720 --> 0:18:21.200 the six with the Broncos at home. Wow. Three things. 0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:25.000 One elevation not altitude. Thank you, you're welcome. Elevation level, 0:18:25.040 --> 0:18:28.080 altitude to the ground. Uh, that's the English teacher in 0:18:28.160 --> 0:18:30.679 me too. What is this wonderful beverage that you have 0:18:30.720 --> 0:18:33.600 concocted for me here at the day? Pineapple cranberry mixed. 0:18:33.720 --> 0:18:36.880 It's no no alcohol to juice, is mixed, very refreshing, 0:18:37.080 --> 0:18:42.440 many calories put it down. Todd are a weight loss situation. 0:18:42.720 --> 0:18:47.320 He thinks he's gonna catch me to this morning. I 0:18:47.400 --> 0:18:50.600 am hot on your heels, my friend to forty eight 0:18:50.720 --> 0:18:54.600 this morning. I'm going down babies, Trip tells me. That's 0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:57.159 what it's called the babies. I am going down, but 0:18:57.240 --> 0:19:00.000 at a snails a glacial pace and a more health 0:19:00.040 --> 0:19:02.720 the pace. And we're healthy. Yes, we're a little worried. Todd. 0:19:02.720 --> 0:19:06.520 It's a little too quick, too much time. I will 0:19:06.560 --> 0:19:10.520 be taking nutritional information in from my good friend portly 0:19:10.640 --> 0:19:14.720 Mike Palm. Ever, and the last thing is and and 0:19:14.760 --> 0:19:16.680 this is just before I get to my second best bet, 0:19:17.800 --> 0:19:21.560 it's fall baseball. Now. Is there anything better than seeing 0:19:21.720 --> 0:19:24.359 baseball with shadows on the field when you know the 0:19:24.359 --> 0:19:30.359 playoffs are about to happen? There Todd Todd Well, who's 0:19:30.359 --> 0:19:32.520 the end game betting expert, although he doesn't host a 0:19:32.560 --> 0:19:36.800 show on MSG, but the shadows in baseball are very 0:19:36.800 --> 0:19:38.879 important when you're making these end games. Of course, I 0:19:38.880 --> 0:19:41.080 mean I don't think they're really factored into the line. No, 0:19:41.119 --> 0:19:45.879 not the algorithm factor in shadows. Excellent point by Michael Palm. 0:19:45.920 --> 0:19:48.040 Once in a while he does come up with a gem. 0:19:48.440 --> 0:19:51.160 And it happened yesterday actually in the Angels Padres game. 0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:53.119 If you were watching, that's right. I was texting with 0:19:53.160 --> 0:19:54.800 me about it. Here comes the Shadows, and I we 0:19:54.840 --> 0:19:57.160 started betting in game under here comes the Shadow. Didn't 0:19:57.160 --> 0:20:00.440 work out? It did, alright. My second best bed, uh 0:20:00.520 --> 0:20:05.080 is the Seattle Seahawks. I am laying the five against 0:20:05.080 --> 0:20:08.800 the Dallas Cowboys. Uh, don't be mesmerized by that onside kick. 0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:12.000 I know everybody is uh amazed by the Cowboys come back. 0:20:12.000 --> 0:20:14.640 And it was amazing against the Falcons last week, as 0:20:14.720 --> 0:20:17.040 they overcome a twenty point deficit from the first quarter 0:20:17.119 --> 0:20:20.440 fifteen point deficit late. But that's more of a Falcons 0:20:20.440 --> 0:20:23.320 thing to me than it is a Cowboys thing. Uh. 0:20:23.400 --> 0:20:26.960 The Cowboys had three fumbles minus three turnovers. They called 0:20:26.960 --> 0:20:29.720 two failed fake punts in their own territory, They made 0:20:29.720 --> 0:20:33.080 an idiotic two point conversion called down nine with under 0:20:33.119 --> 0:20:35.280 five minutes to play, and then, of course they had 0:20:35.280 --> 0:20:37.680 the five Falcons watched the spinning top on side kick, 0:20:37.920 --> 0:20:41.640 mesmerized by it. Um. Here's the thing with the Cowboys defense. 0:20:41.920 --> 0:20:45.600 They have forced seven punts in eight quarters of football. 0:20:46.359 --> 0:20:49.320 Four of those. By the way, we're in what Atlanta 0:20:49.400 --> 0:20:52.680 might have considered garbage time anyway. No Tyrone Smith, no 0:20:52.800 --> 0:20:56.199 Lele Collins, no Cam Irving, no Travis Frederick already on 0:20:56.200 --> 0:20:59.600 the offensive line, Blake Jarwin season ending knee injury, a 0:20:59.720 --> 0:21:02.000 deep vents that lost their top corner and Byron Jones, 0:21:02.080 --> 0:21:05.440 no Latent Vanderish, no Shawn Lee, no Anthony Brown cornerback. 0:21:05.920 --> 0:21:08.160 The defense is allowed points eight times in a nine 0:21:08.240 --> 0:21:10.480 or they did allow eight points. Excuse me, the allowed 0:21:10.480 --> 0:21:13.359 points rather eight times in a nine drive span against 0:21:13.400 --> 0:21:16.280