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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I'm live

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Speaker 1: from my Tommy John home studio, and I'm joined as

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Speaker 1: always by my co host, my companion, Michael Padre my

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Speaker 1: BFF professional Better signmon Hunter l O Simon.

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Speaker 2: Chad, how are we doing well?

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Speaker 1: It's going to be an interesting show because I know

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Speaker 1: where you and I are leaning, and I know some

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Speaker 1: stats from Evan Abrams, who continues to be asked to

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Speaker 1: sign jerseys by our fans at our live events. People

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Speaker 1: are going up to Evan asking him to sign their

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Speaker 1: NFL Legit regulation jerseys and put their favorite st in

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Speaker 1: sharpie on the jerseys. So Evan illuminating in his great

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Speaker 1: article that he posts on Wednesdays on Action network dot

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Speaker 1: com in the Action Network app download it illuminating the

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Speaker 1: upside down year it has been for betters like us Simon,

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Speaker 1: who historically have cashed in betting against the favorites, fading

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Speaker 1: the public betting home underdogs, of which we have plenty

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Speaker 1: to choose from. This week, some stats from Evan. Favorites

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Speaker 1: have gone seventy one percent straight up this year most

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Speaker 1: profitable season since two thousand and nine. It's the fourth

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Speaker 1: least profitable season for underdogs in NFL history. Might explain

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Speaker 1: some of our challenges. We like to fade the public.

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Speaker 1: Teams getting over sixty percent of the spread bets have

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Speaker 1: gone fifty seven percent against the spread this year. Again,

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Speaker 1: we like to fade the public. Home underdogs are forty

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Speaker 1: two percent against the spread, which would be the second

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Speaker 1: least profitable season since nineteen ninety. What do we do, Simon,

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Speaker 1: We bet home dogs and we fade the public. No

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Speaker 1: wonder we're having one in four weeks and just having

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Speaker 1: misery every single week, coming out on the edge on

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Speaker 1: these five games. We're picking road favorites. Last week when

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Speaker 1: seven and no straight up and are thirty four and

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Speaker 1: eight eighty one percent since Week nine. So there are

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Speaker 1: six home dogs this week, Simon, you and I are

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Speaker 1: curious about all of them, more than curious with a

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Speaker 1: couple of them. Today is our NFL Week sixteen Best

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Speaker 1: Bets episodes. Simon and I will narrow down our five

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Speaker 1: picks in the favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football

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Speaker 1: Pick Them Contest presented by Bet three sixty five, we'll

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Speaker 1: get into the foxhole. We'll give out our Timy John

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Speaker 1: big balls better than we We're going to discuss Simon's

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Speaker 1: biggest bets are boosted moneyline underdog parlay. You can gearon

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Speaker 1: fucking tea. It's going to be two home dogs and

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Speaker 1: we'll talk about the underdog round robin and so much more.

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Speaker 1: Bets are rolling in lines, removing decisions seem to be made.

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Speaker 1: As our volume podcast, Boss Callen Coward likes to say,

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Speaker 1: there's a sea of money out there. There's a sea

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Speaker 1: of money out there. As a reminder, the Favorite Podcast

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Speaker 1: presented by Bet three six five and now new Bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five, customers get one hundred and fifty dollars

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Speaker 1: in bonus bets. When you bet five dollars, sign up

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Speaker 1: using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars, place a bet

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Speaker 1: bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,

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Speaker 1: player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary.

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Speaker 1: At Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or

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Speaker 1: older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or a ten and older

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Speaker 1: in Kentucky gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or

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Speaker 1: one hundred bets off in Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply.

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Speaker 1: It's Thursday. Wise. Guys have been blowing up Simon's phone.

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Speaker 1: He already teased on it before we came on air

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Speaker 1: what they think about some of the decisions we're making.

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Speaker 1: Lines have been moving since we've been talking, Simon. Let's

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Speaker 1: do sharp calls.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there?

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Speaker 3: I'm talking Rain rain telephone range.

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Speaker 1: Somebody's said, maybe what you do man?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? Off the top.

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Speaker 3: People want to know if you're alright, Chad. I had

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Speaker 3: a couple of calls about Chad taking Buffalo minus fourteen.

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Speaker 3: They're just wondering if you're all right nicking that your

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Speaker 3: pick there with all these home dogs this week, so

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Speaker 3: pretty easy week, honestly, Chad. I think every probably talked

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Speaker 3: to you. The most part is on the home dogs.

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Speaker 3: A couple guys I've talked.

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Speaker 2: To you, like the Eagles. It is really about the

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Speaker 2: number there.

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Speaker 3: I know a couple of guys that took a position

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Speaker 3: on the Eagles when it was two and a half,

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Speaker 3: and then when I went back to three this week,

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Speaker 3: they took another position on it, which to me makes sense.

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Speaker 3: It makes me leave a little confidence because I thought

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Speaker 3: it was just gonna be I showed a pros versus Joe's,

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Speaker 3: but shaping up to be one that's not as heavily

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Speaker 3: professional on the Washington side, where the other dogs, like

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Speaker 3: these home dogs, won't need to talk about it. Basically,

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Speaker 3: the pros love every home dog this week. The only

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Speaker 3: one I think people are hesitant on is that Bear's

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Speaker 3: number because it has moved down, right.

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Speaker 2: I think if it was.

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Speaker 3: Still seven or at seven and a half, that would

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Speaker 3: just be in the same exact conversation we're having right now.

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Speaker 2: Let's dive into the favorites though.

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Speaker 3: With the pros, I bet I don't know if we're

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Speaker 3: gonna talk about it today, but that Chiefs lines moved

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Speaker 3: like crazy, So that was the line.

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Speaker 1: That we're definitely gonna talk about it today.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I'll save it.

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Speaker 3: Then that one that jumped out to me where it's

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Speaker 3: like the books have left themselves open so wide to

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Speaker 3: a middle here, so it's very telling that they're moving

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Speaker 3: it to where they've got they've moved it to now,

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Speaker 3: so that's a game we Yeah, we'll definitely need a

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Speaker 3: break down.

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Speaker 2: A favorite that me and you kind of liked that.

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Speaker 2: I've talked a.

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Speaker 3: Couple of pros on the other side, the Colts. I

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Speaker 3: mean again, it's not like we're madly in love with

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Speaker 3: it. It was just a favorite we flooded out there. We

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Speaker 3: kind of liked. Just about every probably talk to likes

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Speaker 3: the other side of that one. And again we started

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Speaker 3: out this week like in Miami, most pros I've talked

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Speaker 3: to like.

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Speaker 2: The forty nine or so.

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Speaker 3: Yep, it's funny on the same side as us, but

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Speaker 3: it feels like, for the most part, a lot of

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Speaker 3: the home dogs be like this week, it seems like

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Speaker 3: that's gonna be the professional side this week.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not surprised by that at all. Like the

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Speaker 1: more I looked at the board and the more I

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Speaker 1: dug into this, and by the time we get to

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Speaker 1: Wednesday afternoon, uh, you know, opinions start to solidify a

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Speaker 1: little bit. You start to see some of the practice

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Speaker 1: reports and like, similar to what you the feedback you've gotten,

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Speaker 1: I started to walk away from the Dolphins. I was

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Speaker 1: not feeling confident about the Colts. We're going to talk

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Speaker 1: about the Bills game. I'm curious to know they feel

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Speaker 1: why they're against me.

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Speaker 3: I guess they were just shocked that in a week

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Speaker 3: of like you just said, six or seven home dogs

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Speaker 3: that you went with, Yeah, one of the biggest favorites

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Speaker 3: on the board.

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Speaker 2: You know that's fair.

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Speaker 1: That's also part of the challenge of doing the show

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday, right, is like you can only do so

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Speaker 1: much on Mondays when you're researching this stuff, and you

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Speaker 1: start to get more intel on Tuesday and more intel

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Speaker 1: on Wednesday.

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Speaker 3: I told them, I think you just had PTSD. You're

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Speaker 3: a man that you're just every week, like we talk it,

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Speaker 3: we've been taking these dogs and we're just getting shit

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Speaker 3: kicked out of us, and the only one cover for

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Speaker 3: us are our favorite, Like betting favorites have just been

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Speaker 3: good for us for these lat school weeks. So that

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Speaker 3: was my excuse for you to these people. I was

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Speaker 3: just like, list can's been through the fucking Ringer man,

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Speaker 3: He's just he knows you should take Jets three and

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Speaker 3: a half, but in his mind he's just like fuck them.

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Speaker 3: I'm just going with the Bills and I won't be

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Speaker 3: mad at myself if they don't cover.

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Speaker 2: So that was my view of it.

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Speaker 1: Well, look, you're not wrong, and we're going to get

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Speaker 1: to the Jets three and a half because we did

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Speaker 1: come back around on that. We're going to get to that.

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Speaker 1: Soonest first, let's talk about Kansas City, which is now

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Speaker 1: with three and a half. Yeah, and I'm putting this

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Speaker 1: in here. I don't think we're going to play Houston

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Speaker 1: at three and a half or Kansas City at three

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Speaker 1: and a half in the contest. Mainly I want to reiterate,

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Speaker 1: and we bet Kansas City on Sunday night Monday morning

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Speaker 1: at plus two and a half. And then yesterday, because

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Speaker 1: you are my bff and you're good to me, you

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Speaker 1: sent me a text to let me know that the

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Speaker 1: Texans had moved to three and a half at bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. Because I told you in the shower

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday morning, I was thinking this thing, which is

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Speaker 1: now at two and a half, it's going to get

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Speaker 1: to three and if it gets at three and a half,

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Speaker 1: we're going to have to middle this. It was three

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Speaker 1: and a half. I'm assuming you've bet the Texans at

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Speaker 1: three and a half. I've bet the Texans at three

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Speaker 1: and a half. We are very much hoping for the middle.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and the most shocking part is we did our

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Speaker 3: show Tuesday and Mahomes practiced and there was a couple

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Speaker 3: of books that moved them back up to plus two

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Speaker 3: and a half the Chiefs, And I was like, what

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Speaker 3: do they know that I'm missing? Maybe you look gingerly

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Speaker 3: in practice, maybe it wasn't moving right, and they were like, oh,

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Speaker 3: we'll get ahead of it. And then yeah, I went

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Speaker 3: to bed and woke up to a frantic call in

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Speaker 3: the middle of the night and it was like just

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Speaker 3: basically that number was moving the other way and the

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Speaker 3: Chiefs were back now to one, and then sure enough,

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Speaker 3: you know, eighty or nine, am I feel like it

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Speaker 3: was back up. On Wednesday it was back up to

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Speaker 3: three for the Chiefs, and then by the time you know,

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Speaker 3: we texted later in that day, it was up to

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Speaker 3: three and a half of just about every book. So yeah, honestly,

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Speaker 3: we talked about this. It's like, what's it above three?

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Speaker 3: Especially with this Chiefs team. I want to be on

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Speaker 3: the other side of it. So I was already gonna

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Speaker 3: try to play the middle when I was at three happy,

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Speaker 3: I was patient and weighted.

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Speaker 2: Let it get to three and a half.

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Speaker 3: And now it's I mean, for anyone that bet the

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Speaker 3: two and a half on the Chiefs, you have to

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Speaker 3: try to play the middle here. You can't just roll

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Speaker 3: this value like this is such a Chiefs line where

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Speaker 3: timetime a, we'veeen land on three. Very telling by the

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Speaker 3: sports books because of how much early money they got

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Speaker 3: on the Chiefs that they even put this at three

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Speaker 3: and a half because they they knew if they put

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Speaker 3: this at three and a half, they're just gonna get

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Speaker 3: hammered by not just professionals but the public.

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Speaker 2: Right. I think everyone's kind of been on.

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Speaker 3: The the gig of this Chiefs team just doesn't blow

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Speaker 3: the teams now, obviously we saw what happened last week,

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Speaker 3: but yeah, it's it's just interesting that they've moved this

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Speaker 3: to three and a half and now it's just sat

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Speaker 3: there for coming up on twelve thirteen hours here. So

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Speaker 3: the books are telling you what they need right now.

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Speaker 3: They need Houston money clearly.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's gonna get down to three. It's

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Speaker 1: already juiced in that direction. I think if you want

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Speaker 1: to get to three and a half and you're listening live,

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Speaker 1: go get it because it's not gonna last long. I

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Speaker 1: hope it's there when listeners are tuning in later today

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Speaker 1: after the show has been posted.

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Speaker 2: See I told you that.

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Speaker 3: I talked to sportsbook guys and they were just like,

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Speaker 3: this is on Tuesday again. They're like, every teaser, every

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Speaker 3: single teaser on Saturday is Chiefs up to eight and

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Speaker 3: a half and the Ravens down too point five, Like

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Speaker 3: they just got slammed with that. So that to me

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Speaker 3: is just they already know they're kind of screw because

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Speaker 3: this is a standalone game on a Saturday, But the

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Speaker 3: fact that they're just leaving this at three and a half, like,

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Speaker 3: like you just said, it could go down to three

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Speaker 3: by kick, but they're in such a bad position right now.

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Speaker 2: Might you might be able to still get it come Saturday.

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Speaker 1: I think it's not a bad spot for the Texans

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Speaker 1: if you think about it. At three and a half.

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Speaker 1: Their defense have been playing better, Their pass rush is

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Speaker 1: one of the best in the NFL, if not the

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Speaker 1: best in the NFL. Mahomes is hobbled, and we really

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Speaker 1: don't know what their offensive line can do. Last week

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Speaker 1: they were playing Joe Tooney at left tackle. Will he

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Speaker 1: do it again? Will he perform?

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Speaker 2: Well? He looked great, Honestly for a guy that never

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Speaker 2: played it before. He look really good.

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Speaker 1: Freaking baller, right, Yeah, And you also have to wonder,

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Speaker 1: like the Texans. You know, rush game has been so

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Speaker 1: inconsistent every week with Joe Mixon. He's either getting one

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Speaker 1: hundred yards or he's less than fifty yards. Last week

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Speaker 1: he was less than fifty yards, right, twenty three yards?

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Speaker 1: Will they decide to just unlease CJ. Stroud, let them

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Speaker 1: throw against a depleted secondary, like, we don't know? So

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Speaker 1: it could be a good spot for the Texans. But

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Speaker 1: I'm very happy to let my middle just sort of

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Speaker 1: linger and stew and simmer. It's so rare you get

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Speaker 1: these opportunities. Yeah, Yes, Pittsburgh get Baltimore. So this game

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Speaker 1: was at six and a half. We liked it at

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Speaker 1: six and a half, it moved down to six. Got

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Speaker 1: word yesterday that George Pickens on Wednesday did not practice. TJ.

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Speaker 1: Watt did practice. This line is now back at six

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Speaker 1: and a half. I would still take the Steelers. I'd

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Speaker 1: probably still be comfortable with them in the contest, mainly

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Speaker 1: because of the historical nature of this series, and it's

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Speaker 1: sort of a Tomlin spot. It's a fade Harbass spot

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Speaker 1: as a relatively big favorite, as a dog of three

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Speaker 1: or more versus the Ravens. Tomlin is six and oh

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Speaker 1: thirteen and two and two against the spread overall versus Harbaugh.

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Speaker 1: You know, stats galore the series overall the last twenty years.

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Speaker 1: The underdog is twenty three, four and three since twenty fifteen, sixteen,

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Speaker 1: two and one. Everything says it. And like, unlike the

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Speaker 1: other trends where we, you know, sort of got caught

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Speaker 1: last week with the Steelers and the Browns or the

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Speaker 1: Steelers and the fading the Chiefs, this one doesn't worry

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Speaker 1: me as much. I don't know about.

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Speaker 3: You, no, and it's it's it's my favorite bet every

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Speaker 3: year whenever the Ravens and Pittsburgh play, like we talked about,

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Speaker 3: whoever is the dog? I put zero effort and research

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Speaker 3: into the number. I simply log on, go to Evans page,

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Speaker 3: look at the trends. It's like this is one of

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Speaker 3: the few games where you can just simply play the

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Speaker 3: trends here and it's it's all about who's the dog.

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Speaker 3: The bigger the number, the better. It's like you talked about,

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Speaker 3: it gets even better the higher the number gets when

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Speaker 3: these two teams match up. So, yeah, Lamar having an

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Speaker 3: MVP season, it feels like the only team she struggle

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Speaker 3: against her Pittsburgh and the Eagles this season, right, and

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Speaker 3: this is another bad matchup for him with this Pittsburgh

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Speaker 3: team that just they just know how to plan and

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Speaker 3: they know to make them un corporate, they how to

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Speaker 3: make them flustered. In Yeah, Chad, we might eventually get

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Speaker 3: burned by it, but we're up.

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Speaker 2: I think we're like Evans.

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Speaker 3: Five and oh betting against this exact spot, and like

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Speaker 3: we always joke about that, are we overthinking?

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Speaker 2: This is just too easy?

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Speaker 3: And we always eventually put it in the contest because

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Speaker 3: we eventually do get there. So it is another number

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Speaker 3: where it's like, yes, we know Lamar's I can go

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Speaker 3: zero to ten in his career against this Pittsburgh team,

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Speaker 3: But if me and Chack can go eight and two

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Speaker 3: betting this exact spot over the lifetime of this for

300
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Speaker 3: the next couple of years, that's huge for us, Like

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Speaker 3: that's the dream scenario. So yeah, we're sitting our five

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Speaker 3: and oh betting this exact spot nothing's changed for me.

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Speaker 3: It's all about playing the number had this way down

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Speaker 3: like I have this close to the four and a half.

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Speaker 3: That's the only fear. It's the same thing as the

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Speaker 3: Eagles last week, where I might be overrating this Pittsburgh

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Speaker 3: team too much and maybe i'ven't adjusted enough.

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Speaker 2: On the pickings injury.

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Speaker 3: But at six and a half, I feel like that

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Speaker 3: insurance is already built in. Like we talked about last week,

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Speaker 3: that that game would have been totally different if there

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Speaker 3: wasn't a couple of little turnovers here and there and

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Speaker 3: Tomlin played a little more aggressive. I can't see him

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Speaker 3: being reluctant and hesitant back to back week with Tomlin

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Speaker 3: like he knows he screwed.

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Speaker 2: Up last week.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, give me a Pittsburgh team on a short week,

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Speaker 3: pissed off and against a Raves team that just absolutely

319
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Speaker 3: blew out and dominated a Giants team that's feeling themselves.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, we love the trends, we love the spots.

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Speaker 3: Give me Pittsburgh plus six and a half.

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Speaker 1: I love your confidence. I was afraid that you were

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Speaker 1: going to come in and tell me you're a little

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Speaker 1: bit anxious about playing the Steelers because of us getting

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Speaker 1: sort of snake bit last week playing the Steelers trend

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Speaker 1: and fading the Chiefs, you know, as more than three

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Speaker 1: point favorite trend. So I'm so thrilled to hear because

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Speaker 1: I still love the Steelers here.

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Speaker 2: Yes, this is great. It's all about the number.

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Speaker 1: I would like to know. We should check this. We've

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Speaker 1: been doing this show.

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Speaker 2: Is this our sixth season?

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Speaker 1: Is this our sixth season doing it together? But is

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Speaker 1: it our fifth year with the contest or is it

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Speaker 1: our sixth year with a contest?

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Speaker 2: Can the contest?

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Speaker 1: We'll have to figure that out. I wonder how many

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Speaker 1: times we put the Steelers as dogs against the Ravens

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Speaker 1: in the contest, and if we've been six and oher

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Speaker 1: with that play, if we're running, you know, because you

341
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Speaker 1: know God will and Simon, God will, and we get

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Speaker 1: four more years of the show and we can have

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Speaker 1: a decade's worth of data. I'm playing the Steelers as

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Speaker 1: the dogs in the contest against the Ravens. Guess what

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Speaker 1: you mentioned The Jets took me a minute, but maybe

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Speaker 1: on Tuesday I would have made this my exact decision.

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Speaker 1: The good news is it's lingering out there and now

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Speaker 1: it is our big balls Bet of the Week presented

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Speaker 1: by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John

350
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Speaker 1: has this support. Great games start with great underwear, and

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Speaker 1: Tommy John makes the greatest. I don't know that there's

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Speaker 1: been a better, more serendipitous match between tagline sponsor and

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Speaker 1: inane segment. Then Tommy John having the support to give

354
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Speaker 1: us to bet the New York Jets as three three

355
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Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs at home against the Los

356
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Speaker 1: Angeles Rams. We like this allowed on Tuesday when it

357
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Speaker 1: was three and a half, we both bet it there.

358
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Speaker 1: It has moved to three. I'll tell you it looks

359
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Speaker 1: like it's moving to two and a half. But I

360
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Speaker 1: don't know about you, Simon. I started to feel much

361
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Speaker 1: better about this over the past forty eight hours.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and mine's like the old school, the old school

363
00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:01,960
Speaker 3: white reason for me liking this again, the numbers back

364
00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,120
Speaker 3: it up. I mean, Rogers obviously has been playing much

365
00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:05,879
Speaker 3: better these last several weeks. But the biggest thing I

366
00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,600
Speaker 3: like about this was it felt like a trap spot

367
00:18:08,760 --> 00:18:10,919
Speaker 3: right for the public coming on the Rams, and then

368
00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,440
Speaker 3: you factor in the weather like it's gonna be what

369
00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:16,960
Speaker 3: mid twenties in this game comes Sunday and this is

370
00:18:17,000 --> 00:18:20,360
Speaker 3: we're talking about Stafford here, like people forget because he's

371
00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:23,880
Speaker 3: been out in LA. We auto faded Stafford just about

372
00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:26,840
Speaker 3: every time he left that giant that Lions building. Right

373
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Speaker 3: anytime he went outdoors, we saw Stafford would always struggle. Again,

374
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Speaker 3: He's a kid that played in college ball, played down

375
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Speaker 3: in Georgia. He's just never been a cold weather quarterback.

376
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Speaker 3: And I need to go through the trends with Evan

377
00:18:38,600 --> 00:18:41,080
Speaker 3: here with him and outdoor games, but it feels like

378
00:18:41,720 --> 00:18:43,480
Speaker 3: this is kind of a good spot to fade him

379
00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:46,480
Speaker 3: and this Los Angeles offense, especially like we.

380
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Speaker 2: Talked about, they're just the public darling right now.

381
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Speaker 3: So honestly shock looking the app that there is even

382
00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:54,600
Speaker 3: that amount of money coming in on the Jets, But

383
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Speaker 3: I think it's what we talked about every week. These

384
00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:58,600
Speaker 3: professionals are just gonna keep hitting the side, whether it

385
00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:00,280
Speaker 3: was a good number or a bad number.

386
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Speaker 2: They believe in this team. They're models believing this team.

387
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:04,359
Speaker 2: And yeah, three and a.

388
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Speaker 3: Half contest wise, shot, I absolutely love it. Two and

389
00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:09,720
Speaker 3: a half will truly take some big balls to put

390
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,119
Speaker 3: it in there, because obviously me and you have hammered

391
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:15,480
Speaker 3: this at three and a half would it be shocked

392
00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:17,440
Speaker 3: if this game lands on three. If the Jets somehow

393
00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:19,239
Speaker 3: find a way to lose this game by fool at

394
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Speaker 3: the end, would not be shocked.

395
00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:24,399
Speaker 2: But the number, everything about.

396
00:19:24,160 --> 00:19:27,320
Speaker 3: This just feels like a Jets outright win, upset shocked

397
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 3: the world type of game.

398
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,720
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, we faded the Rams for two reasons here

399
00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:36,040
Speaker 1: and we talked about this on Tuesday. Two very sexy,

400
00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:40,760
Speaker 1: big time wins, and this team now finds itself in

401
00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 1: first place in the NFC West. Right, they are streaking,

402
00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:47,119
Speaker 1: as they tend to do the last couple of years,

403
00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:49,960
Speaker 1: like they find their footing in the second half of

404
00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:54,960
Speaker 1: the year. It's why we generally hate betting against Matthew Stafford.

405
00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:57,560
Speaker 1: But they have not been the same team on the

406
00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:00,959
Speaker 1: road that they've been at home this year. And like

407
00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:04,840
Speaker 1: you just said, the Jets have been okay the past

408
00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:07,640
Speaker 1: couple of weeks. Like they lost a game they should

409
00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:14,520
Speaker 1: have won and covered against the Dolphins, they covered a

410
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:17,960
Speaker 1: game they shouldn't have. In both cases they were undone.

411
00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:23,720
Speaker 1: This is the scary part. They're very unqualified, ill equipped

412
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:28,119
Speaker 1: head coach who knows less about clock management than just

413
00:20:28,160 --> 00:20:31,640
Speaker 1: about anybody watching red zone on a Sunday afternoon. It's

414
00:20:31,720 --> 00:20:35,280
Speaker 1: actually astonishing how bad he is at it. Like these

415
00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 1: past two weeks, the spread and the jet success has

416
00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:47,160
Speaker 1: been entirely determined by his horrible, inane, stupid clock management.

417
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:49,639
Speaker 1: So we get screwed in this game. This is why,

418
00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,400
Speaker 1: and it's why actually I didn't make it a massive

419
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:55,520
Speaker 1: bet this week is because I worry a little bit

420
00:20:55,560 --> 00:21:00,600
Speaker 1: about Jeff Olbrook just not understanding the basic constructive management.

421
00:21:01,880 --> 00:21:04,800
Speaker 3: And then this amazing stature from Evan Stafford. Four and

422
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:08,480
Speaker 3: seven straight up outdoors thirty five degrees or less one

423
00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:10,040
Speaker 3: in three under thirty degrees.

424
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Speaker 2: So, I mean, I knew there was something back there.

425
00:21:12,680 --> 00:21:15,280
Speaker 3: It was like we used to same kind of treat

426
00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 3: when we get the golf, but not extreme that. I

427
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:19,119
Speaker 3: just remember when every time Stafford went outdoors, he always

428
00:21:19,119 --> 00:21:21,960
Speaker 3: struggled in the cold weather. And uh, that could be

429
00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:24,240
Speaker 3: partially why the summer's moved so much check because people

430
00:21:24,280 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 3: are just it's again it's the old old man take

431
00:21:27,000 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 3: where it's like you got the weather and you have

432
00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:32,600
Speaker 3: the public perception. They usually love to hammer these type

433
00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 3: of spots.

434
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Speaker 2: So yeah, if if you're.

435
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:36,040
Speaker 3: Lucky enough to still find a three to three and

436
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:37,679
Speaker 3: a half out there, I would definitely grab it out

437
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:39,160
Speaker 3: before this does go down to two and a half.

438
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:42,240
Speaker 1: I do worry a little bit that Rogers has looked

439
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 1: so good because he's old and he's been in Florida,

440
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:47,439
Speaker 1: and everybody knows that when you're old and you're in

441
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:50,280
Speaker 1: Florida during the winter, you're going to be more spry.

442
00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 1: So does he look better? Does he look the same?

443
00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 1: Does he look worse when he's playing at home in

444
00:21:54,840 --> 00:21:58,720
Speaker 1: cold weather. Here's a good stat last twenty years, a

445
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 1: team that has a winning percentercentage of fifty to sixty

446
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:04,560
Speaker 1: percent fifty to fifty nine percent. So you know, teams

447
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:08,200
Speaker 1: that like are good ish might be fighting for a

448
00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:10,679
Speaker 1: playoff spot, but they're not so good that they can

449
00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 1: be dominant. And we're at the end of the season,

450
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:15,440
Speaker 1: the last three weeks of the season facing a team

451
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 1: below five hundred allah. The Rams and the Jets in

452
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:23,280
Speaker 1: this current matchup thirty eight percent against the spread the

453
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 1: past twenty years and since twenty twenty two just nine

454
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:31,720
Speaker 1: to eighteen and one. So I do like that we

455
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:34,000
Speaker 1: have the Jets in a good spot here. It's a

456
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:38,639
Speaker 1: home dog. Will our fidelity to the number in the

457
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:42,600
Speaker 1: spot be betrayed by the wackiness of this season. That

458
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 1: is our question, Simon. We just don't know, but we're

459
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 1: willing to dig in and play it. Dear listeners. It

460
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,840
Speaker 1: is the holiday season, so of course I'm sporting some

461
00:22:54,040 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 1: Tommy John underwear right now. They're incredible. Don't roast your

462
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:05,960
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463
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:10,480
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464
00:23:10,680 --> 00:23:14,399
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465
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:19,680
Speaker 1: those magical cringle tingles with the gift of Tommy John. Simon,

466
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:21,960
Speaker 1: why will you be giving the gift of Tommy John

467
00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:22,439
Speaker 1: this season?

468
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,159
Speaker 2: Pretty easy, chat, It's the gift that last.

469
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,200
Speaker 1: There is still time to throw downfield with Tommy John

470
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:30,200
Speaker 1: and become the greatest gifter of all time, but time

471
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472
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473
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474
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:46,640
Speaker 1: dot com slash favorites. All right, you mentioned Washington three

475
00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:49,200
Speaker 1: and a half, you know at the Eagle or hosting

476
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 1: the Eagles right now. Another home dog alert for us

477
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:55,879
Speaker 1: I'm with the wise guys on this, like we played it,

478
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 1: this was Simon says, I believe. But the more like

479
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:03,199
Speaker 1: I think about it, the more anxious it makes me,

480
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 1: just because I love this Eagles defense so much. Like

481
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 1: I haven't bought out of it. I'm on the commanders

482
00:24:10,600 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 1: at three and a half, but it does it does

483
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:16,320
Speaker 1: make me a little anxious.

484
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:21,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's fair. The last time they played

485
00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:23,080
Speaker 3: the Egles beat them up. They beat him like twenty

486
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:25,720
Speaker 3: seven eighteen or twenty six to eighteen. So I get

487
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:29,240
Speaker 3: your hesitation, and.

488
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 2: My view of it is just how do that Egles

489
00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:31,360
Speaker 2: not have.

490
00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:34,560
Speaker 3: A letdown after that Pittsburgh game. I mean they're just

491
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:37,720
Speaker 3: feeling themselves so much. I mean, she is just christ

492
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 3: yell and hurts press conference. You would think this dude

493
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:43,439
Speaker 3: is averaging thre hundred yards per game, passing in three touchdowns,

494
00:24:43,480 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 3: like he came in their flection so hard for a

495
00:24:46,119 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 3: game that was Yeah, it's very good, but it's like

496
00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:49,360
Speaker 3: this is what we expect.

497
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:52,479
Speaker 2: Out of you, So yeah, not a good look. Budget

498
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 2: It hurts that that was not good.

499
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:57,160
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, this it really wasn't and it was kind

500
00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,920
Speaker 1: of it was to me, it was a little bit

501
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,439
Speaker 1: out of character for a guy who like generally is

502
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 1: pretty quiet, like self confident obviously, but just hasn't been

503
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:12,360
Speaker 1: in the place where he likes to sort of go

504
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:15,320
Speaker 1: after the media, blame the media, us against the media,

505
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 1: you know, sort of that that Aaron Rodgers esque approach.

506
00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:26,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, and clearly it got to him though, where it's like, yeah,

507
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 3: we talked about this though. I told you it's he

508
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 3: gets more hate than most other quarterbacks, and it is

509
00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,400
Speaker 3: because of the weapons he has around him, right. People

510
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:39,400
Speaker 3: just see the talent of the offensive line, the wide

511
00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 3: receivers and obviously the running back, and they're just like,

512
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 3: this team should be so much better than the two seed.

513
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,439
Speaker 3: They haven't lost in you know, since September. It's just

514
00:25:47,800 --> 00:25:49,680
Speaker 3: I think that's what's probably annoying the shit hapen where

515
00:25:49,720 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 3: it's like, man, if you know sak one didn't have

516
00:25:53,280 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 3: that bad drop against Atlanta, they they're.

517
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 2: Probably the one seed right now.

518
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,040
Speaker 3: I mean, they are the one seed right now, So

519
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 3: you know, I get where he's coming from.

520
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:02,600
Speaker 2: But I just thought it was a weird.

521
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:05,120
Speaker 3: Way to start that press conference where it was just

522
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,320
Speaker 3: just not like you just said, I the character for

523
00:26:07,400 --> 00:26:12,520
Speaker 3: Jalen hurts. But yeah, Chad, this matchup for me, it

524
00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:15,000
Speaker 3: really is just about this number and this this type

525
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 3: of matchup these two teams play. Right, We've seen it

526
00:26:17,320 --> 00:26:20,159
Speaker 3: this season that obviously Washington. Every game Washington plays is

527
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:25,440
Speaker 3: just a bizarre game. Either they're rolling like absolutely dominating

528
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 3: teams or it's going to come down to the final seconds,

529
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:31,439
Speaker 3: last possession. And you know, as much credit as I

530
00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 3: want to give to their defense, because that's probably been

531
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:36,159
Speaker 3: the most shocking part about Washington this season is how

532
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 3: good their defense is played. Where you know, me and

533
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:40,239
Speaker 3: you joked about they were getting rid of basically all

534
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:44,040
Speaker 3: their best d linemen and still have found a way

535
00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:47,600
Speaker 3: to put it together. But you know, again, like your hesitation,

536
00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 3: I totally understand it because you know, they had a

537
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 3: stretch there where they lost to Pittsburgh, they lost to

538
00:26:52,600 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 3: the Eagles, they lost to Dallas. Now they have one

539
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:58,159
Speaker 3: too straight, right, They won against Tennessee, then had their

540
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:00,400
Speaker 3: bi week when they beat New Orleans. So we've seen

541
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:03,400
Speaker 3: it that they've beat up on these bad teams. But

542
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 3: you know, I just view this game as then be

543
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:06,800
Speaker 3: able to play this one close.

544
00:27:06,880 --> 00:27:07,120
Speaker 2: Jet.

545
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:09,240
Speaker 3: It's like a type of game that just because the

546
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:13,120
Speaker 3: divisional game here late in December, both fighting for playoff

547
00:27:13,160 --> 00:27:15,920
Speaker 3: spots in the sense that you know, Eagles still fighting

548
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 3: for the one seed, Washington still fighting to be a

549
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:20,760
Speaker 3: wildcard team. It just feels the game that's gonna be

550
00:27:20,800 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 3: really close and other than come down to three. Now,

551
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,040
Speaker 3: I get where you're at your hesitation. I had a

552
00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 3: lesitation too, because I found out so many professionals wrong

553
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 3: on the other side.

554
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:30,360
Speaker 2: So yeah, if there's other dogs.

555
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 3: You rather put in there this week home dogs, I'd

556
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 3: be fine with it. It was just really about me trying

557
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:36,920
Speaker 3: to get ahead of it the market, just because the

558
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:38,720
Speaker 3: number had moved so much. I really did think it

559
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 3: was gonna be three come today's show, and clear I

560
00:27:41,800 --> 00:27:43,959
Speaker 3: was wrong. Should have went with the Jets or the Chiefs,

561
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:46,520
Speaker 3: as my Simon says, because that was definitely getting ahead

562
00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:47,720
Speaker 3: of the line movement in those games.

563
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,199
Speaker 1: Yeah, I didn't see you as being dug in on

564
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,640
Speaker 1: this as a contest play. To me, it was only

565
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 1: about the Simon says, and getting the three and a

566
00:27:55,760 --> 00:27:58,200
Speaker 1: half and on Tuesday like it was trending in that direction.

567
00:27:58,280 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 1: It did get down to three, just came back up

568
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:02,880
Speaker 1: to three and a half, and I think The difference

569
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:08,159
Speaker 1: here about the letdown is we've said this all season.

570
00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 1: Physical travels right, and Jalen Hurts can be up and

571
00:28:13,760 --> 00:28:18,360
Speaker 1: down and all those kinds of things. But like their

572
00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,640
Speaker 1: defensive line is still going to be dominant and their

573
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 1: defensive backfield is still continuing to get better. I don't

574
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:28,399
Speaker 1: even think they've reached their peak yet. They're just so

575
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 1: freaking good.

576
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 2: You were at the game of this when the Eagles

577
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:32,399
Speaker 2: played Commanders.

578
00:28:32,160 --> 00:28:34,760
Speaker 1: I was, but my tickets through game time, which will

579
00:28:34,760 --> 00:28:34,960
Speaker 1: get you.

580
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 3: Another reason I love Washington is the Eagles. I mean

581
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 3: people think they blow them out. They scored twenty in

582
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 3: the fourth, like this was a really close game, and

583
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:44,719
Speaker 3: then it kind of got away from Washington the very end.

584
00:28:44,760 --> 00:28:46,600
Speaker 3: That's another reason why I like Washington, where it's like

585
00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 3: it feels like they know and to match up with

586
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 3: this Eagles team. But like the Eagles have done all season,

587
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 3: they just wear you out with sake.

588
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 1: They wear you out. They look at that ten minute

589
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 1: drive against the Steelers was really so dominant you couldn't

590
00:28:59,520 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 1: turn away. It was a constant car crash like it broke.

591
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 1: One of the most unbreakable teams in football, that's the

592
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 1: Steelers like you expect them to get the stop. The

593
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 1: Commanders have not been very good in the fourth quarter

594
00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:16,200
Speaker 1: this year. We saw it against the Saints just this

595
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 1: past weekend. But you know from Evans article, three and

596
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 1: eleven against the spread in the fourth quarter this year,

597
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 1: that's tied for worst in the NFL. So I do worry.

598
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 1: We're going to get to a place where it's late

599
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:34,719
Speaker 1: in the season, rookie quarterback, physical game. The Eagles are

600
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 1: going to eagle you know what I mean?

601
00:29:36,760 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 2: It's fair.

602
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 1: Arizona at Carolina. We lean Carolina when it was four,

603
00:29:44,760 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 1: Now it's four.

604
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:47,320
Speaker 2: And a half, it's get to five.

605
00:29:47,920 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 1: I don't get it, like the Cars are one of

606
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,160
Speaker 1: those teams I just mentioned it with the Rams where

607
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: they're good ish, they've sown promise, but they're not dominant.

608
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 1: They're not the Eagles, they're not the Lions. They're not

609
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:06,880
Speaker 1: even that second Tiers sort of packers team. They are

610
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 1: a good teams still figuring it out with an okay

611
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 1: defense that is getting a little bit better, and an

612
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 1: inconsistent quarterback. These are the teams you fade in December.

613
00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 1: They're playing losing teams like nine, eighteen and one against

614
00:30:20,120 --> 00:30:23,880
Speaker 1: the spread. Since twenty twenty two in this spot, and

615
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:28,480
Speaker 1: Kyler like has all the Cliff Kingsbury in him when

616
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 1: it comes to fading this guy as the season goes on,

617
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 1: twenty six and fourteen against the spread September, October seventeen,

618
00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 1: twenty one and two in November or later when he

619
00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 1: is over five hundred, and that game is played in

620
00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 1: November or later, he's seven to fourteen against the spread.

621
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 1: I'm wondering if this is our foxhole because we still

622
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 1: like the Panthers, I think, and this line keeps moving

623
00:30:58,520 --> 00:31:00,400
Speaker 1: against us. I don't know if it goes in the contest,

624
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 1: but I don't know if there's another game where we

625
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 1: so definitively have been on the other side, I.

626
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 2: Could get in the content.

627
00:31:07,840 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 3: I mean, I've been betting it pretty heavy this week,

628
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:11,600
Speaker 3: and it was really all about the number. On what

629
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 3: you just said about Kyler, I just think that not

630
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 3: that he's a tad overrated, but he's just been the

631
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:18,200
Speaker 3: type of guy that sucks people in after a good

632
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 3: week and then kind of has a letdown game the

633
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:22,760
Speaker 3: following week, especially in this exact scenario where he's playing

634
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:24,880
Speaker 3: not a not a good team on the road as

635
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:27,920
Speaker 3: a big favorite, and I mean you joke about it,

636
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 3: like when Kyler is a big dog on the road,

637
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:32,640
Speaker 3: we tend to back them. Like historically he's been really

638
00:31:32,680 --> 00:31:34,720
Speaker 3: good as a dog on the road, but as a favorite,

639
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:38,360
Speaker 3: especially when it's above three, he tends to struggle. And

640
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 3: you know this season, you know we've seen him have

641
00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 3: games like even that Minnesota game. They almost stole that game,

642
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 3: Like he was on the road, could have stole that game,

643
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:49,480
Speaker 3: no doubt. They all played Minnesota, but that was another game.

644
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 3: I felt like it was more about Minnesota than it

645
00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 3: was about Arizona.

646
00:31:52,840 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 2: And it feels the same spot here.

647
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:57,880
Speaker 3: It's like, all right, they just had this incredible, big

648
00:31:57,920 --> 00:32:00,680
Speaker 3: win against a very bad team. Now they're playing another

649
00:32:00,720 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 3: bad team on the road. The public is coming in heavy,

650
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 3: bending them up, even if some professionals are betting this

651
00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 3: one up. And it's at the point now where especially

652
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 3: that's about four and a half, it's like, how do

653
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 3: we not get this one? It just feels like way

654
00:32:13,680 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 3: too much disrespect this Carolina team. But my only fear

655
00:32:16,880 --> 00:32:19,240
Speaker 3: is I'm blind to my love for this Panthers team,

656
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 3: Like it's still a cheme that I could be overrating

657
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 3: as much I want to say that this game is

658
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 3: gonna be another cold weather game.

659
00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 2: I don't know how bright Young.

660
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 3: Is going to do in the cold weather either, like

661
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 3: this is not a guy who's played in the Big

662
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 3: tenor like Dad, he's an Alabama quarterback that basically his

663
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 3: whole career has pretty much been the warmth. And I

664
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 3: hate bring it up, but it's a real thing. These

665
00:32:40,480 --> 00:32:43,960
Speaker 3: quarterbacks with small hands in this cold weather that is tough,

666
00:32:44,000 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 3: Like your grip on the ball is different when it

667
00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 3: is cold like this. So a lot to think about here.

668
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 3: I got a game I'm not going to force us into,

669
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:53,360
Speaker 3: but just don't be shocked if for this is one

670
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 3: of our five comes Sunday, because it's like I could

671
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,400
Speaker 3: easily see myself, especially hitting the books tonight and tomorrow

672
00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 3: getting talked into it because I just know every problem

673
00:33:00,760 --> 00:33:02,200
Speaker 3: go to run into for the most part, is gonna

674
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 3: be on this Panthers side. It just feels like this

675
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:06,600
Speaker 3: is way too inflicative, but number way too much respect

676
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 3: this Panthers team, I mean this Cardinals team, and too

677
00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 3: much disrespect to a Carolina team that was due for

678
00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:13,360
Speaker 3: a bad game.

679
00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 2: Right. We talked about that last week. It was gonna

680
00:33:15,160 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 2: go the other.

681
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:18,040
Speaker 3: Way eventually, right, They had been playing so well for

682
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:19,800
Speaker 3: so many weeks in a row for such a young,

683
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 3: inexperienced team. At the end of the day, though, they

684
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 3: still were competitive in that game against Dallas, but it

685
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:30,200
Speaker 3: really felt too Bryce Young, right, like, when that game

686
00:33:30,240 --> 00:33:33,200
Speaker 3: was close, kept turning the bull over, kept getting short fields.

687
00:33:33,520 --> 00:33:35,320
Speaker 3: Same thing here, like, if we have a bad Bryce

688
00:33:35,360 --> 00:33:37,360
Speaker 3: Young game, me and Chad will know right away that

689
00:33:37,400 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 3: we're dead because this Panthers defense is just atrocious. So, yeah,

690
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:43,160
Speaker 3: this really is a bet on. Do we think Bryce

691
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 3: Young's gonna show up for us on this spot?

692
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 1: All right? So this is gonna be our foxhole because

693
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with you, but we're definitely on the

694
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 1: opposite side of the wise guys here.

695
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:53,440
Speaker 3: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a

696
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 3: foxhole guy.

697
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 2: I commit to a team, I commit to a city.

698
00:33:56,560 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 2: I'm a foxhole guy.

699
00:33:57,800 --> 00:34:00,200
Speaker 1: The one thing I will say to counter what you're

700
00:34:00,240 --> 00:34:02,720
Speaker 1: saying about Bryce Young, the Cardinals don't have any pass

701
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 1: rushers as good as Michaeh Parsons. And you know, we're

702
00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 1: going to talk about Dallas in a little bit, but

703
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 1: he has been dominant and that was just the biggest

704
00:34:12,640 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 1: factor in that game. Every time Red Zone flipped to it,

705
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:20,080
Speaker 1: Micah Parsons was sacking Bryce Young or forcing a fumble

706
00:34:20,080 --> 00:34:23,759
Speaker 1: of Bryce Young. So that was a big deal. I

707
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 1: knew you were leaning Panthers because the last few weeks

708
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:33,160
Speaker 1: you have loved the Jags, and we have both loved

709
00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:36,240
Speaker 1: the Panthers. And I slacked you this morning and said,

710
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 1: what do we think of these games for our money

711
00:34:39,160 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 1: line underdog round robin? And you wanted me to take

712
00:34:43,680 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 1: out the Jags and put in the Panthers. And I'm like, huh,

713
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 1: that's interesting. So I knew. I knew there was going

714
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 1: to be a lean here today because if you're taking

715
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:58,920
Speaker 1: out the Jags for the Panthers, you're falling madly, deeply

716
00:34:59,480 --> 00:34:59,879
Speaker 1: in love.

717
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:02,600
Speaker 3: It's also about the value too, Like Panthers are plus

718
00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 3: one ninety plus one eighty.

719
00:35:04,080 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 2: I think the Jags are like minus one h two.

720
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 1: So you love the Panthers. I do do we want

721
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:13,239
Speaker 1: to spend any time on Tennessee, Indie. I don't think

722
00:35:13,239 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 1: we're going to put them in the contest. I just

723
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,319
Speaker 1: thought it was interesting. You know, Mason Rudolph is now

724
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 1: officially the quarterback we didn't know that on Tuesday. And

725
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:26,319
Speaker 1: I don't want to lay money on Anthony Richardson as

726
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:30,719
Speaker 1: a favorite, and I don't really have faith. I don't

727
00:35:30,719 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 1: think Mason Rudolph is even worth the point that the

728
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:36,560
Speaker 1: line moved. He's not that good either, So I'm not

729
00:35:37,520 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 1: feeling strongly about this game.

730
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 2: That's fair.

731
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 3: It fills the game that we're going to kick ourselves

732
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 3: if the Cults are up fourteen head end of the fourth,

733
00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 3: and it's like, man, how have we missed all these

734
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 3: weeks of just fading this Tennessee team because they have

735
00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:53,359
Speaker 3: just been a ferocious.

736
00:35:52,960 --> 00:35:56,239
Speaker 1: Well look, that's also the question. So Tennessee this year

737
00:35:56,280 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 1: is two and twelve against the spread. Yeah, like one

738
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:02,800
Speaker 1: of the worst team against the spread in NFL history,

739
00:36:03,480 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 1: the worst mark since through fourteen games since the twenty

740
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 1: sixteen Browns. But Anthony Richardson is on pace to have

741
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 1: such a bad year of completing passes that his only

742
00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 1: comps in terms of lowest completion percentage for the past

743
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:27,320
Speaker 1: quarter century Tim Tebow and Achille Smith.

744
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 2: Yeah.

745
00:36:30,560 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 1: I'm old enough to have been a professional in the

746
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 1: year nineteen ninety nine two thousand, so I remember the

747
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:46,239
Speaker 1: Achille Smith year. I remember Tim Tebow very specifically when

748
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 1: I was running ESPN, the magazine we put him on

749
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 1: the cover. Caused a lot of consternation, so we made

750
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,719
Speaker 1: him look like he was praying. People thought it was

751
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:56,760
Speaker 1: a political statement.

752
00:36:57,600 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 2: I missed.

753
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:02,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you were like times you were like ten

754
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 1: years old.

755
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:06,360
Speaker 2: Not even how ung go do you think Tibo played?

756
00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 1: I was no, but for a Key Smith twenty five

757
00:37:09,640 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 1: years ago. This is like how bad Anthony Richardson has been.

758
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:17,280
Speaker 1: He has taken some severe steps back since the benching,

759
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:19,920
Speaker 1: and we thought he was getting better. So just a

760
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:23,799
Speaker 1: whole lot of we have so many ugly home underdogs

761
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:26,160
Speaker 1: we can ruin our weekend with. Do we really want

762
00:37:26,200 --> 00:37:27,800
Speaker 1: to ruin it with Anthony and Richardson?

763
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 2: No, it's fair. I just I'm honestly.

764
00:37:30,520 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 3: I told you I was more shocked about the love

765
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 3: from the professionals putting heavy money on his Tennessee side,

766
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:36,799
Speaker 3: Like I'm not talking a little money, Like I know

767
00:37:36,840 --> 00:37:40,240
Speaker 3: guys who are putting decent money into the spot. And

768
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 3: it's what I think you just talked about. Though maybe

769
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:45,760
Speaker 3: it's just the doubt of Anthony Richardson and the lift

770
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:47,840
Speaker 3: they think Mason Rudolph somehow was going to bring to

771
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 3: this Tennessee team because I do think one of their

772
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:53,239
Speaker 3: covers the season was by Mason Rudolph when he did

773
00:37:53,320 --> 00:37:53,719
Speaker 3: step in.

774
00:37:53,880 --> 00:37:56,840
Speaker 1: So oh, look, he's a better quarterback than Will Levis

775
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 1: and he made ready for the Steelers last year. But

776
00:37:59,800 --> 00:38:01,799
Speaker 1: he also had the Steelers defense, and if you remember

777
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:04,719
Speaker 1: last year, they were winning games because of turnovers by TJ.

778
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 1: Watt that he was forcing. Not because Mason Rudolph was

779
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:08,799
Speaker 1: any kind of hero.

780
00:38:09,400 --> 00:38:12,399
Speaker 3: No, he'll forever be only known just for getting hitting

781
00:38:12,440 --> 00:38:14,000
Speaker 3: the head by Miles Garrett with his helmet.

782
00:38:14,680 --> 00:38:18,880
Speaker 1: That's right. Also, simpler times Detroit minus six and a

783
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,080
Speaker 1: half at Chicago. So we've been talking about cold weather.

784
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:24,879
Speaker 1: We've been talking about quarterbacks in Chicago. In Chicago, it's

785
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:26,759
Speaker 1: going to be low thirties. The warmest it'll be is

786
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 1: around kickoff at noon on Sunday in Chicago about thirty one.

787
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:33,719
Speaker 1: It's never going to be above freezing. This is not

788
00:38:33,800 --> 00:38:37,239
Speaker 1: a Jared Goff spot. So I understand why the wise

789
00:38:37,239 --> 00:38:38,799
Speaker 1: guys have come in on the Bears at seven and

790
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:42,680
Speaker 1: a half and seven. However, I don't think it's going

791
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:45,920
Speaker 1: to matter for Jared Goff. We're not going to need

792
00:38:46,000 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 1: him to do much. For the record, He's eighteen and

793
00:38:50,120 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 1: eight against the spread off a loss. He's seven and

794
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:58,160
Speaker 1: two in the division off of a loss against the spread.

795
00:38:58,239 --> 00:39:01,200
Speaker 1: This Bears rush defense is so bad. We saw it

796
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:05,000
Speaker 1: again last week against the Vikings. Even without David Montgomery,

797
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:08,960
Speaker 1: Jamia Gibbs may get two hundred yards. I'm not even exaggerating.

798
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:10,799
Speaker 1: Like I watched so many of these Bears games. They

799
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 1: cannot stop anybody on the run in the running game, like,

800
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:19,720
Speaker 1: and the Bears are so ill prepared. Since eber Flus

801
00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:23,480
Speaker 1: was fired, They've given up thirty plus points in both

802
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 1: of their games. In the first half of the past

803
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:31,040
Speaker 1: three games, they've gained a total of one hundred and

804
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:38,920
Speaker 1: sixty three yards. That's it. Like, I know people are

805
00:39:38,920 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 1: betting the number. I hate the Bears here, hate them.

806
00:39:43,080 --> 00:39:44,440
Speaker 1: I'd much rather bet the Lions.

807
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:45,759
Speaker 2: I know.

808
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:48,879
Speaker 3: It sucks so because I wanted to find a way

809
00:39:48,920 --> 00:39:53,640
Speaker 3: to take this Bearer's team, especially you know, the slander

810
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:55,960
Speaker 3: for Caleb Williams this week, it's just an.

811
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:56,919
Speaker 2: All time high.

812
00:39:56,960 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 3: I mean, I have seen that video of him on

813
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:01,799
Speaker 3: that bench, you know, rolling around in agony like a

814
00:40:01,800 --> 00:40:06,760
Speaker 3: toddler about twenty times and it's like, God, damn, people,

815
00:40:06,840 --> 00:40:08,960
Speaker 3: let the kid grow. He's just a kid, Like he's

816
00:40:09,000 --> 00:40:11,319
Speaker 3: just going through it. It's someone that you know, not

817
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:13,279
Speaker 3: that he's a silver screw up his ass his whole life,

818
00:40:13,320 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 3: but he's been a winner his whole life. And you know,

819
00:40:16,360 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 3: last year, yeah, it was hard to lose in the

820
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:22,000
Speaker 3: Pac twelve. But it's like, I think he's quickly realizing

821
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:24,120
Speaker 3: like this is a whole different world and it doesn't end.

822
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 3: Like in his mind, he's like, man, I should be

823
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 3: getting ready for the offseason. No, you still got three

824
00:40:28,680 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 3: more weeks of just playing against the toughest division of football.

825
00:40:31,960 --> 00:40:34,440
Speaker 2: So it's brutal for Caleb.

826
00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 3: And you know, like we talked about, the coaching has

827
00:40:36,719 --> 00:40:41,279
Speaker 3: just been so disappointed for the Bears everything offensively, defensively

828
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 3: since the.

829
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 2: Fire, and they've just been terrible. And you're right, I'm

830
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:45,640
Speaker 2: probably overthinking it.

831
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 3: I should just take the value here. I just can't

832
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 3: believe the books are giving us six and a half

833
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 3: another game. That's like, this is in every single teaser.

834
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 2: Even me, who knows.

835
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:57,040
Speaker 3: It's a sucker bet, has put the lines in every

836
00:40:57,080 --> 00:40:57,920
Speaker 3: single teaser.

837
00:40:58,000 --> 00:40:59,719
Speaker 1: It's too easy, that's so funny.

838
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:02,200
Speaker 3: Gonna lose, Like, there's in what world do they lose

839
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:05,239
Speaker 3: this game? So of course somehow Chicago Bears are going

840
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:06,520
Speaker 3: to find a way to upset this game.

841
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 2: That's just how usually. But this year has been wonky.

842
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:10,120
Speaker 2: It's been great for the public.

843
00:41:10,200 --> 00:41:12,880
Speaker 3: So yeah, if you're someone like me, a sucker betting

844
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:15,840
Speaker 3: this Detroit team and a teaser, hopefully that that trend continues.

845
00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:18,640
Speaker 3: So I'm with you, chat It's like if the Bears

846
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:20,360
Speaker 3: seven and a half, maybe, mean you would have it

847
00:41:20,360 --> 00:41:21,759
Speaker 3: a serious conversation here, it's not.

848
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 2: It's six and a half. I'll take the train that

849
00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:25,040
Speaker 2: number and I'll throw them in a teaser.

850
00:41:26,480 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 1: I don't know if this gets contest play. I mean,

851
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 1: we're gonna have a favorite in the contest.

852
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 2: We got to find a favorite so it could it

853
00:41:32,440 --> 00:41:33,359
Speaker 2: could find its way in.

854
00:41:33,560 --> 00:41:36,400
Speaker 1: It's well, the favorite is going to be Detroit or Buffalo.

855
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:41,080
Speaker 3: All right, right, I forgot our Buffalo love. It just

856
00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:45,400
Speaker 3: cracks me up. Minus fourteen rock me away.

857
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:48,239
Speaker 1: Like we'll get to it in a minute, but walk

858
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:49,759
Speaker 1: me away from it, you know what I mean.

859
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:53,400
Speaker 2: I can't, I really can't. I mean that's that's the

860
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 2: scary part.

861
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:55,640
Speaker 3: Like when it was getting up to fourteen and a

862
00:41:55,640 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 3: half this Buffalo game, I was like, Okay, at least

863
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 3: a professional money's coming on the same side of us.

864
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 3: Now it is back down to fourteen, which is like

865
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:04,359
Speaker 3: not going to scare me off. But I do think

866
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:07,440
Speaker 3: it's interesting that guys are taking position on this New

867
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 3: England team where like, again my model thinks is a

868
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:10,160
Speaker 3: good spot.

869
00:42:11,600 --> 00:42:13,840
Speaker 2: Do the Bills overlooked him and have a letdown game?

870
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:16,040
Speaker 2: I don't know. It feels like they're coming home.

871
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:17,960
Speaker 3: And Josh Allen's playing for MVP and like this is

872
00:42:17,960 --> 00:42:20,200
Speaker 3: the type of game he just beats the shit out

873
00:42:20,200 --> 00:42:22,560
Speaker 3: of this bad New England team. The only hesitation here

874
00:42:22,640 --> 00:42:25,360
Speaker 3: is do we get back door because the Bills have

875
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:27,840
Speaker 3: so many injuries to that defense and they're really playing,

876
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:30,680
Speaker 3: you know, with guys off the streets at this point,

877
00:42:30,760 --> 00:42:32,399
Speaker 3: Like I know, they only have three or four guys

878
00:42:32,440 --> 00:42:35,160
Speaker 3: they've sent the ir but they just have guys banged

879
00:42:35,200 --> 00:42:36,719
Speaker 3: up that might miss this game. That could be a

880
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:38,840
Speaker 3: big deal for them. So that's the only hesitation for you.

881
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:40,480
Speaker 1: Well, hold on, let me set it up so Gifford

882
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:42,200
Speaker 1: can throw up his graphics and we're going to go

883
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:44,279
Speaker 1: a little bit out of order here because we've transitioned

884
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:48,000
Speaker 1: into Buffalo. I want to get to Seattle and Minnesota.

885
00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:51,400
Speaker 1: We'll do that after this one. But New England Buffalo

886
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:55,920
Speaker 1: was my exec decision. I feel like if it wasn't

887
00:42:56,520 --> 00:42:58,839
Speaker 1: the Jets, we would want to double up and make

888
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:02,120
Speaker 1: this big balls too. I agree with you. The Bill

889
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:06,399
Speaker 1: secondary is banged up, and we know Drake May likes

890
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 1: to make things interesting in the second half. And I

891
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:12,360
Speaker 1: think we're both Drake may fans, like we've seen a

892
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:14,719
Speaker 1: lot of moxy out of the guy. He makes good throws,

893
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:18,359
Speaker 1: he's not afraid to throw into coverage, he throws with accuracy,

894
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:23,480
Speaker 1: he runs well like he's got nothing on that team.

895
00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 1: He has zero help and he has no help from

896
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:31,680
Speaker 1: the coaches either. And like this week Gerrod Mayo throwing

897
00:43:32,200 --> 00:43:38,000
Speaker 1: Alex van Pelt under the bus about his play calling. Look,

898
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:42,000
Speaker 1: maybe I'm overthinking that part of it, but I do

899
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:46,200
Speaker 1: wonder is this, all of a sudden, a radically different

900
00:43:47,200 --> 00:43:51,920
Speaker 1: game from a play calling point of view because of

901
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:58,240
Speaker 1: the sort of overt throwing under the bus by Gerald

902
00:43:58,320 --> 00:44:01,319
Speaker 1: Mayo of Alex Bent van Pelt. That's to me, that's

903
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 1: one part of it. I'd like your reaction to that,

904
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:06,359
Speaker 1: if I'm overthinking that part.

905
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:08,239
Speaker 2: Yeah again, I don't know.

906
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:10,360
Speaker 3: I don't think there's a move to be made with

907
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:12,840
Speaker 3: them at this point. That's that's the thing where it's like,

908
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 3: you know, as much praise as we're giving to Drake May,

909
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:23,439
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go through it right here. He is throwing

910
00:44:23,440 --> 00:44:27,239
Speaker 3: an interception every game since November three.

911
00:44:27,640 --> 00:44:30,680
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, So he's still a rookie quarterback playing against

912
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:35,640
Speaker 1: a terrible offensive line with no discernible players, no discernible

913
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:39,880
Speaker 1: talent on the edges, at receiver, at running back, Like

914
00:44:40,120 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 1: he's getting no help here.

915
00:44:42,600 --> 00:44:45,680
Speaker 3: No, And it's he's getting no help. But they're kind

916
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:48,440
Speaker 3: of letting him just go through all of that right now.

917
00:44:48,520 --> 00:44:50,879
Speaker 3: Right They're not like pulling back the rains. They're still

918
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 3: letting them throw the ball downfield in basically, every time

919
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:56,480
Speaker 3: they play a good team, they.

920
00:44:56,320 --> 00:44:59,319
Speaker 2: Just get absolutely rolled. This this new England team.

921
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:01,120
Speaker 3: So like that again, And there's another reason why I'm

922
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:03,640
Speaker 3: okay with you bet this number, because you've just seen

923
00:45:03,680 --> 00:45:06,319
Speaker 3: this season that you know, when they play against some

924
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 3: bad teams, they can stay in it, they can keep

925
00:45:08,120 --> 00:45:11,400
Speaker 3: the games close, but once they face a good, complete team, they.

926
00:45:11,239 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 2: Seem to get rolled. And we know that we have major.

927
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 3: Questions about the defense, but you have to think Sean

928
00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:18,759
Speaker 3: McDermott going against a rookie QB, he's gonna be able

929
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:20,440
Speaker 3: to throw some crazy exotic looks at him.

930
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 2: That's going to kind of have his head on a squivel.

931
00:45:22,120 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 2: So again, Chad, I was.

932
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:25,360
Speaker 3: Trying to find a reason to get us off of

933
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:27,719
Speaker 3: this one, just because, like, it's rare that guys call

934
00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:29,800
Speaker 3: up and talk about your bets. To me, it was

935
00:45:29,800 --> 00:45:31,440
Speaker 3: just funny how many guys called up are just like

936
00:45:31,800 --> 00:45:34,560
Speaker 3: your buddy, Chad all Right giving out a minus fourteen

937
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 3: favorite is his favorite bet.

938
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 2: I was like, I think he's just going through it.

939
00:45:37,920 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 1: We've done this before, we did this with alliance we have.

940
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:44,400
Speaker 3: But this is again, this is a different scenario that

941
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 3: was like peak lines Juggernaut.

942
00:45:48,080 --> 00:45:50,399
Speaker 2: This is not peak Bills, Like this is the best

943
00:45:50,400 --> 00:45:51,480
Speaker 2: team that's a little banged up.

944
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:54,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, but how is this not peak performance for the Bills.

945
00:45:55,280 --> 00:45:58,879
Speaker 1: Look at what they did they you know, against You.

946
00:45:58,840 --> 00:46:01,680
Speaker 3: Keep saying like, then, like do their defense is dish

947
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:06,239
Speaker 3: dog shit, it's all Josh Allen Captain America.

948
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:12,279
Speaker 1: So that that's the final factor for me, is that

949
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 1: this is Josh Allen win the MVP game.

950
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:17,399
Speaker 2: That's the reason I'm like all in on this. It's

951
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:18,799
Speaker 2: just he's going for it.

952
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:21,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a week where he can do what Lamar

953
00:46:21,360 --> 00:46:24,799
Speaker 1: did last week. It's a week where the Ravens could

954
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:28,359
Speaker 1: have a hard time against the Steelers. It's separation week,

955
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:32,840
Speaker 1: It's week sixteen. Lock this shit down, win him the MVP,

956
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:35,359
Speaker 1: because now all of a sudden there is talk, Wait

957
00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:38,440
Speaker 1: a second, should Lamar Jackson win the MVP? Look at

958
00:46:38,440 --> 00:46:40,560
Speaker 1: how good he is, look at how efficient he is? Right,

959
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:45,239
Speaker 1: So this is the week we're betting Josh Allen to

960
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 1: win the MVP. This is how we're betting Josh Allen.

961
00:46:48,680 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 1: The odds in Josh Allen winning MVP, there's no value anymore.

962
00:46:53,600 --> 00:46:55,719
Speaker 1: We think there might be some value in Josh Allen

963
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:58,719
Speaker 1: to win the MVP against the New England Patriots.

964
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:01,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, because Josh, again, that's keep put on video game numbers,

965
00:47:01,160 --> 00:47:03,200
Speaker 3: because they really do have a joke schedule here. Then

966
00:47:03,280 --> 00:47:05,280
Speaker 3: I think they faced the Patriots twice in the Jets

967
00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:06,400
Speaker 3: once the season.

968
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 2: Here.

969
00:47:07,120 --> 00:47:09,960
Speaker 3: On the flip side, Lamar has a tough Pittsburgh game,

970
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:13,320
Speaker 3: then he has Houston. So it's like Lamar could flip

971
00:47:13,360 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 3: this to his favorite, but I just don't think josh

972
00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:17,360
Speaker 3: An allows it. Like this guy is just playing at

973
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:18,839
Speaker 3: the highest level we've ever seen.

974
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:21,319
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I can't believe we're gonna put this

975
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:24,439
Speaker 1: in the contest, but I think we are. I really do.

976
00:47:25,080 --> 00:47:27,440
Speaker 1: Minnesota Seattle. This game's at three. It was at three

977
00:47:27,520 --> 00:47:29,399
Speaker 1: and a half. I liked it a lot at three

978
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:31,200
Speaker 1: and a half. I betted at three and a half.

979
00:47:31,520 --> 00:47:33,880
Speaker 1: It's basically three everywhere. In fact, I think it'll go

980
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:36,160
Speaker 1: down to two and a half. The old line is

981
00:47:36,200 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 1: banged up for Seattle. Gino is hobbled. We hope that

982
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:42,919
Speaker 1: he's gonna play. They say he will, but if he's

983
00:47:43,280 --> 00:47:46,920
Speaker 1: knocked out, we got Sam Howell. Gino against a spread

984
00:47:46,920 --> 00:47:49,680
Speaker 1: at home is a loser bet. Gino against good defense

985
00:47:50,160 --> 00:47:52,359
Speaker 1: is a bad bet. I just liked it at three

986
00:47:52,360 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 1: and a half because I thought Minnesota was inflated. But

987
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 1: if we saw this at three and a half in

988
00:47:57,040 --> 00:47:59,240
Speaker 1: the contest, how would you feel.

989
00:48:00,239 --> 00:48:03,239
Speaker 3: I could probably get there, just because, like we've talked

990
00:48:03,280 --> 00:48:05,920
Speaker 3: about this, this Minnesota team is great, they've been and

991
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:06,960
Speaker 3: how well they're playing.

992
00:48:07,640 --> 00:48:08,960
Speaker 2: This is a letdown spot.

993
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 3: They're on the road in Seattle, then they're going to

994
00:48:10,640 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 3: face Green Bay in the Detroit the next two weeks.

995
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 2: So it's like the.

996
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:16,799
Speaker 3: Human element is, how are they not looking ahead? They

997
00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:19,480
Speaker 3: know what's ahead of them right, Like they're in total

998
00:48:19,480 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 3: control of the one seed, even though they want to

999
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:23,799
Speaker 3: say they're not going to overlook the Seattle team. You

1000
00:48:23,840 --> 00:48:25,560
Speaker 3: just gave a bunch of reasons why they might righte

1001
00:48:25,719 --> 00:48:28,880
Speaker 3: Like it's a banged up last leg team in Seattle.

1002
00:48:29,080 --> 00:48:31,600
Speaker 3: And to me, the reason I love it is like

1003
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:33,920
Speaker 3: it feels like we're buying really low on the Seattle

1004
00:48:33,960 --> 00:48:37,000
Speaker 3: team now after last week. Must people that bet them

1005
00:48:37,040 --> 00:48:39,359
Speaker 3: are going to be really upset about that performance they

1006
00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 3: put out against Green Bay.

1007
00:48:40,680 --> 00:48:43,480
Speaker 2: And I've talked about the stat of nauseum.

1008
00:48:43,600 --> 00:48:45,160
Speaker 3: I mean, it's mainly a lot of money this season,

1009
00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:48,400
Speaker 3: but I basically have just been blindly betting these NFC

1010
00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:50,480
Speaker 3: North teams and when they go outside the division because

1011
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:53,320
Speaker 3: they've just been beating up outside their division this season.

1012
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:55,600
Speaker 3: So this is all about the number, Chad, Like you

1013
00:48:55,640 --> 00:48:57,440
Speaker 3: just said, this number might move too much to the

1014
00:48:57,440 --> 00:48:59,879
Speaker 3: point of like are we all in Minnesota now?

1015
00:49:00,080 --> 00:49:01,440
Speaker 2: This two and a half in contest?

1016
00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:03,640
Speaker 3: Like that's the issue I had with this one where

1017
00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:06,120
Speaker 3: three and a half totally supports you. I think that

1018
00:49:06,200 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 3: was a good read by you on the Seattle team.

1019
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:10,960
Speaker 3: But we're getting to bang up o line and a

1020
00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:13,239
Speaker 3: banged up Gino Smith against a team that loves to

1021
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:15,920
Speaker 3: rush the passer, like that's what the Vikings love to do.

1022
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 3: So again, there's other ugly dogs we like this week more.

1023
00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:23,400
Speaker 3: This is a very pros verse Joe's spot though. The

1024
00:49:23,480 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 3: pros they're hitting the Seattle team hard, the public is

1025
00:49:26,719 --> 00:49:28,960
Speaker 3: thanking them. They are coming even heavier on the opposite

1026
00:49:28,960 --> 00:49:31,719
Speaker 3: side on this Vikings team. So yeah, really really fun,

1027
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 3: interesting game here.

1028
00:49:33,040 --> 00:49:35,680
Speaker 1: Maybe the wise guys when they call you, they should

1029
00:49:35,680 --> 00:49:39,400
Speaker 1: be saying Chad really nailed it with his analysis of

1030
00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:44,520
Speaker 1: Seattle instead of worrying about my mental state choosing the Bills,

1031
00:49:44,520 --> 00:49:49,840
Speaker 1: because clearly I'm finding the right side, you know. Tampa

1032
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:52,440
Speaker 1: Bay at Dallas. Dallas is four. We both liked it

1033
00:49:52,600 --> 00:49:55,319
Speaker 1: for it's trending towards three and a half. Money is

1034
00:49:55,360 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 1: coming in on our side. Look, it has not been

1035
00:49:59,680 --> 00:50:02,560
Speaker 1: six successful move for us this year to fade the

1036
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:05,839
Speaker 1: better team when we think it has reached a peak

1037
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:14,640
Speaker 1: in the market. Ala Minnesota, A LA the Bucks to me,

1038
00:50:16,719 --> 00:50:19,160
Speaker 1: I just think this Dallas defense is not getting enough

1039
00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:21,480
Speaker 1: credit for how much better it has been since Micah

1040
00:50:21,480 --> 00:50:24,799
Speaker 1: Parsons came back. Alluded to this a little bit, with

1041
00:50:24,840 --> 00:50:28,479
Speaker 1: the Panthers seven and a half sacks since he came back.

1042
00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:32,720
Speaker 1: They are three and one in the last four games.

1043
00:50:33,120 --> 00:50:38,160
Speaker 1: The only loss is that fluky Bengals game, which if

1044
00:50:38,200 --> 00:50:42,640
Speaker 1: not for a mental breakdown by one of their players,

1045
00:50:43,719 --> 00:50:48,560
Speaker 1: they probably win that game. So I still like Dallas here.

1046
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:50,759
Speaker 2: Yeah and there.

1047
00:50:51,000 --> 00:50:53,160
Speaker 3: Dallas is another team that they seem to play to

1048
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:57,800
Speaker 3: level their competition since that, and they've played bad teams

1049
00:50:57,840 --> 00:51:00,160
Speaker 3: they usually play up to and they've done pretty well well.

1050
00:51:00,719 --> 00:51:03,879
Speaker 3: And when they've played legit contenders, really good teams, they've

1051
00:51:03,880 --> 00:51:04,960
Speaker 3: been rolled and blown out.

1052
00:51:04,960 --> 00:51:05,319
Speaker 2: This season.

1053
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:07,400
Speaker 3: Now, we think Tampa is right in between there, like

1054
00:51:07,440 --> 00:51:10,239
Speaker 3: they're a team that any given Sunday they could upset

1055
00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:12,080
Speaker 3: any team in the NFC. They shouldn't have this season, and

1056
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:14,759
Speaker 3: they beat the Eagles in Detroit this season, which is

1057
00:51:14,800 --> 00:51:18,520
Speaker 3: just crazy to think about. But we've seen it time

1058
00:51:18,560 --> 00:51:20,880
Speaker 3: and time again with this this Tampa team. They just

1059
00:51:20,880 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 3: have letdown games like it's it's no you know, it's

1060
00:51:24,600 --> 00:51:26,439
Speaker 3: not something we're making up in our minds, Like we've

1061
00:51:26,440 --> 00:51:28,719
Speaker 3: seen it now where they've had these big wins, these

1062
00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:30,680
Speaker 3: big road wins, and they come and they face teams

1063
00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:33,959
Speaker 3: and they just have huge letdowns. And you know, they've

1064
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:36,560
Speaker 3: been really hot since they're bye week, they're four and

1065
00:51:36,600 --> 00:51:39,120
Speaker 3: oh right, they've just been beating up on teams. And

1066
00:51:39,520 --> 00:51:42,000
Speaker 3: you know, surprisingly, their only close game in that stretch

1067
00:51:42,080 --> 00:51:44,919
Speaker 3: was Carolina. That side we took Carolina should have won.

1068
00:51:45,360 --> 00:51:49,000
Speaker 3: They fumbled away though, right, So that was another spot

1069
00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:52,399
Speaker 3: of this team being a little lucky. So they beat

1070
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:54,520
Speaker 3: up on a bad Vegas team, which the line was

1071
00:51:54,560 --> 00:51:56,120
Speaker 3: a lot closer than people realize. Like it sounds like

1072
00:51:56,120 --> 00:51:58,320
Speaker 3: an easy one now, but like people again were hesitant

1073
00:51:58,360 --> 00:52:01,279
Speaker 3: about this team. Same with against the Chargers, right, a

1074
00:52:01,280 --> 00:52:03,200
Speaker 3: lot of professionals I knew were coming in on the

1075
00:52:03,239 --> 00:52:05,360
Speaker 3: other side, like they really liked the charge on that spot.

1076
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:08,440
Speaker 3: They went forty to seventeen. How do they not have

1077
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:11,959
Speaker 3: a letdown here against an overlook Dallas team, right, going

1078
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:15,040
Speaker 3: on the road here, you know, we expect this to

1079
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:17,879
Speaker 3: be a close game. Like you just said, Dallas has

1080
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:19,920
Speaker 3: just been better than what I feel like people are

1081
00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 3: giving them credit for in the public perception right now,

1082
00:52:22,120 --> 00:52:24,480
Speaker 3: Like that game we joked about, but that was a

1083
00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:26,360
Speaker 3: real thing with that Cincinnati game, Like they should have

1084
00:52:26,640 --> 00:52:29,040
Speaker 3: either won that game or at least that minimum covered

1085
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:30,319
Speaker 3: that that number.

1086
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:31,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I believe it was five or five and a half.

1087
00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:35,200
Speaker 3: Sam goes for here and the books are smart moving

1088
00:52:35,239 --> 00:52:38,000
Speaker 3: this down because that was a bad number they hung

1089
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:40,040
Speaker 3: when it was four and a half. Four, That felt

1090
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:41,840
Speaker 3: like that was way too high. This should be closer

1091
00:52:41,880 --> 00:52:43,840
Speaker 3: to three. Still, like the value of three and a half.

1092
00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:46,400
Speaker 3: It's just another game that like if you wanted to

1093
00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:49,480
Speaker 3: put in the contest, I know we're leaning into something

1094
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:52,000
Speaker 3: we regretted this whole season, just betting these home dogs.

1095
00:52:52,640 --> 00:52:54,160
Speaker 3: But how does this line not have a ton of

1096
00:52:54,200 --> 00:52:56,600
Speaker 3: value on it, Like it's just way too inflated for

1097
00:52:57,040 --> 00:52:59,160
Speaker 3: a bucksting that we've seen that you can get pressure

1098
00:52:59,239 --> 00:52:59,760
Speaker 3: on Baker.

1099
00:53:00,680 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 2: They don't have a great.

1100
00:53:01,440 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 1: Old line and he'll make mistakes.

1101
00:53:03,440 --> 00:53:06,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he'll make mistakes, right, And like then you

1102
00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:09,799
Speaker 3: talked last episode was a bland You talked about that, Yeah, right,

1103
00:53:09,920 --> 00:53:12,480
Speaker 3: Like that's a big, big upgrade to that Dallas secondary.

1104
00:53:12,560 --> 00:53:14,880
Speaker 3: So it's just a lot of the points and tracks

1105
00:53:14,880 --> 00:53:17,200
Speaker 3: to us taking Dallas here. To me, it was all

1106
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:20,000
Speaker 3: about the number. If this was three, okay, I could

1107
00:53:20,040 --> 00:53:21,759
Speaker 3: finally talk ourselves out of it. The fact that you're

1108
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:23,040
Speaker 3: still be able to get three and a half four

1109
00:53:23,160 --> 00:53:25,560
Speaker 3: on this Cowboys team, it's just way too much value

1110
00:53:25,600 --> 00:53:26,720
Speaker 3: to pass on at that number.

1111
00:53:27,120 --> 00:53:30,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel like we're looking at pitt the Jet, Pittsburgh,

1112
00:53:30,960 --> 00:53:37,520
Speaker 1: the Jets, Dallas, Buffalo, and then we're gonna have to

1113
00:53:37,560 --> 00:53:43,919
Speaker 1: make a call, you know, is it Washington, is it Carolina?

1114
00:53:44,239 --> 00:53:45,799
Speaker 2: Well, I'm surprised you didn't bring up one game.

1115
00:53:46,280 --> 00:53:46,600
Speaker 1: What's that?

1116
00:53:46,960 --> 00:53:50,880
Speaker 3: The Giants Atlanta? So so we're way ahead of the movement,

1117
00:53:50,880 --> 00:53:52,960
Speaker 3: which is like the best feeling in the world. Getting

1118
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:57,920
Speaker 3: a plus ten against a rookie. I know, obviously he's

1119
00:53:57,920 --> 00:54:00,720
Speaker 3: not on the road, but like, dude, Pennix is left handed.

1120
00:54:00,840 --> 00:54:03,520
Speaker 3: They're flipping to a left handed quarterback middle of the

1121
00:54:03,520 --> 00:54:07,040
Speaker 3: week in this game, I know the Giants are trying

1122
00:54:07,040 --> 00:54:08,480
Speaker 3: to tank and give up the stet. We already joked

1123
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:11,120
Speaker 3: about how they were gonna somehow steal this game. Now

1124
00:54:11,160 --> 00:54:13,920
Speaker 3: it's even more tempting, like, sure, this kid TeX's come

1125
00:54:13,960 --> 00:54:15,800
Speaker 3: in and just light the world on fire and completely

1126
00:54:15,880 --> 00:54:19,439
Speaker 3: roll this Giants team. But how do you not throw

1127
00:54:19,480 --> 00:54:21,200
Speaker 3: a little bit? I mean again, we don't have to

1128
00:54:21,239 --> 00:54:23,040
Speaker 3: put this in contest because the number has moved. But

1129
00:54:23,160 --> 00:54:25,880
Speaker 3: like this one just jumped out to me of like, wow,

1130
00:54:26,480 --> 00:54:28,319
Speaker 3: the books move this a point and a half when

1131
00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:31,319
Speaker 3: Kirk got taken out, which was pretty interesting. Fact they

1132
00:54:31,400 --> 00:54:32,560
Speaker 3: moved that that that much.

1133
00:54:32,600 --> 00:54:35,839
Speaker 1: It's heading back in the other direction. It got down

1134
00:54:35,840 --> 00:54:37,399
Speaker 1: to eight and a half. I think it's back up

1135
00:54:37,400 --> 00:54:40,080
Speaker 1: to nine. I'm looking in the ad. I'm looking online

1136
00:54:40,680 --> 00:54:43,879
Speaker 1: right now. No, I'm seeing eight and a half. I'm

1137
00:54:44,120 --> 00:54:47,600
Speaker 1: I see a couple of nines out there. Actually, I

1138
00:54:47,640 --> 00:54:50,279
Speaker 1: think Bed three six five, Yeah, Bet three six five

1139
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:51,319
Speaker 1: is at nine right now.

1140
00:54:52,480 --> 00:54:54,160
Speaker 3: So yeah, just the game that jumped out to me.

1141
00:54:54,239 --> 00:54:58,080
Speaker 3: It was like, it's it's crazy. This is this kid's

1142
00:54:58,120 --> 00:55:01,799
Speaker 3: first start, this late in the season, and basically it

1143
00:55:01,960 --> 00:55:04,400
Speaker 3: must win. Like this is like this kid's first starts

1144
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:07,160
Speaker 3: basically a playoff game. Like it's just crazy they're throwing

1145
00:55:07,200 --> 00:55:10,319
Speaker 3: him right to the fire like this. But like I said,

1146
00:55:10,360 --> 00:55:13,000
Speaker 3: weeks ago, when they should have made the move, it

1147
00:55:13,000 --> 00:55:15,239
Speaker 3: didn't make sense why they're keep going Kirk out there.

1148
00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:17,160
Speaker 3: And I kept saying, maybe we're not seeing what they're

1149
00:55:17,160 --> 00:55:19,520
Speaker 3: seeing in practice, which is Penix is simply not ready.

1150
00:55:20,600 --> 00:55:21,520
Speaker 2: I have no idea.

1151
00:55:21,640 --> 00:55:24,439
Speaker 3: I mean, this organization is just such a train wreck

1152
00:55:24,440 --> 00:55:27,319
Speaker 3: and it's another one of those that's like it's being

1153
00:55:27,400 --> 00:55:29,799
Speaker 3: run from the owner. Right, this doesn't feel like this

1154
00:55:29,840 --> 00:55:31,439
Speaker 3: is being run by the GM or the head coach.

1155
00:55:31,560 --> 00:55:33,919
Speaker 3: Just feels like an owner move. The owner came down

1156
00:55:33,960 --> 00:55:36,960
Speaker 3: after that embarrassing game against the Raiders and was like

1157
00:55:37,080 --> 00:55:39,880
Speaker 3: put the kid in, Like I'm done watching Kirk. So

1158
00:55:40,680 --> 00:55:43,360
Speaker 3: I just the vibes everything about it with Atlanta, I

1159
00:55:43,440 --> 00:55:45,160
Speaker 3: just want to fade, fade, fade.

1160
00:55:45,400 --> 00:55:48,200
Speaker 1: Well, the statement they put out was so weird what

1161
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:52,520
Speaker 1: they said. It was like, this is a football decision

1162
00:55:53,000 --> 00:55:55,240
Speaker 1: and it wasn't Raheem Morris either.

1163
00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:57,239
Speaker 2: It was sort of like the order to be a

1164
00:55:57,280 --> 00:55:59,839
Speaker 2: soccer decision. I hate when fucking people say that it's it.

1165
00:55:59,800 --> 00:56:02,120
Speaker 1: Was like it was so it was so sort of

1166
00:56:02,160 --> 00:56:07,919
Speaker 1: weird and like, you know, real politic kind of thing.

1167
00:56:08,280 --> 00:56:12,279
Speaker 1: So your your instincts might be right on that. All right,

1168
00:56:12,320 --> 00:56:14,480
Speaker 1: Well I put on the list. I don't know, I

1169
00:56:14,520 --> 00:56:16,799
Speaker 1: feel like we're going to have what we'll have a

1170
00:56:16,840 --> 00:56:20,439
Speaker 1: good spirited debate about it. There is no debate though,

1171
00:56:20,560 --> 00:56:25,200
Speaker 1: Simon about this next sponsor, Can you name the best

1172
00:56:25,200 --> 00:56:27,400
Speaker 1: ticketing app in the United States.

1173
00:56:28,040 --> 00:56:28,840
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1174
00:56:29,640 --> 00:56:34,000
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1175
00:56:34,040 --> 00:56:38,200
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00:56:38,400 --> 00:56:43,840
Speaker 1: kid in November that we bought tickets for on game Time.

1177
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1179
00:56:55,680 --> 00:57:01,040
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1180
00:57:01,520 --> 00:57:05,400
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1181
00:57:05,560 --> 00:57:10,040
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1182
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1183
00:57:15,239 --> 00:57:19,640
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1184
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1185
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1187
00:57:31,400 --> 00:57:33,439
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1188
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1189
00:57:36,200 --> 00:57:39,600
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1190
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1191
00:57:43,040 --> 00:57:50,720
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1192
00:57:50,760 --> 00:57:53,760
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1193
00:57:54,600 --> 00:57:57,080
Speaker 1: All right? Each week we give out a two team

1194
00:57:57,320 --> 00:58:00,720
Speaker 1: money line underdog parlay. Bet three six five will boost

1195
00:58:00,840 --> 00:58:03,680
Speaker 1: the odds and highlighted on their site a weekend under

1196
00:58:03,720 --> 00:58:07,240
Speaker 1: both game pages. Remember both games are eligible for Bet

1197
00:58:07,280 --> 00:58:11,480
Speaker 1: three six fives early payout promo. Your money line pick

1198
00:58:11,680 --> 00:58:14,360
Speaker 1: gets marked as a win if either team takes a

1199
00:58:14,400 --> 00:58:18,000
Speaker 1: seventeen point lead, even if those teams go on to lose.

1200
00:58:18,400 --> 00:58:20,520
Speaker 1: If you want to bet this, bet it at bet

1201
00:58:20,520 --> 00:58:24,480
Speaker 1: three sixty five. This week's boosted parlay New York Jets

1202
00:58:24,600 --> 00:58:28,000
Speaker 1: and Dallas Cowboys. That's right, folks, that is plus seven

1203
00:58:28,000 --> 00:58:31,560
Speaker 1: to twenty five. That's how crazy the folks at bet

1204
00:58:31,560 --> 00:58:34,080
Speaker 1: three six five think we are. They're boosting this moneyline

1205
00:58:34,080 --> 00:58:36,920
Speaker 1: parlay of the Jets and the Cowboys to seven to

1206
00:58:36,960 --> 00:58:39,560
Speaker 1: twenty five. Find the boost under either the Jets or

1207
00:58:39,600 --> 00:58:41,560
Speaker 1: Cowboys game pages on bet three six five.

1208
00:58:44,200 --> 00:58:45,680
Speaker 2: There will come up payday.

1209
00:58:45,840 --> 00:58:51,760
Speaker 4: Hallelu yo, wanna pay day? There will come up payday someday. Someday,

1210
00:58:52,240 --> 00:58:56,439
Speaker 4: there will come up payday. Hallelu yo, wanna payday? Tyre

1211
00:58:56,520 --> 00:58:58,400
Speaker 4: will come up pay day some day.

1212
00:59:00,440 --> 00:59:04,680
Speaker 1: Our money line underdog round robin Dallas Cowboys, no surprise,

1213
00:59:04,720 --> 00:59:10,560
Speaker 1: New York Jets, no surprise, Seattle, San Francisco, the Carolina Panthers.

1214
00:59:10,960 --> 00:59:13,640
Speaker 3: So San Francisco is a favorite. Now we have to

1215
00:59:13,640 --> 00:59:14,440
Speaker 3: take them out.

1216
00:59:14,680 --> 00:59:16,560
Speaker 2: Can I get you there for the episode with Washington?

1217
00:59:17,080 --> 00:59:19,280
Speaker 1: Sure I could do. I had Washington on my list.

1218
00:59:19,880 --> 00:59:22,120
Speaker 2: I think they're a live dog here, so that would

1219
00:59:22,160 --> 00:59:22,840
Speaker 2: be a fun one.

1220
00:59:23,200 --> 00:59:28,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, do it. It's in Dallas, New York Jets, Seattle, Seahawks,

1221
00:59:28,760 --> 00:59:32,960
Speaker 1: Washington Commanders, Carolina Panthers. That is our money line Underdog

1222
00:59:33,080 --> 00:59:35,720
Speaker 1: round Robin. Give me your biggest bets right now?

1223
00:59:36,880 --> 00:59:40,920
Speaker 3: Oh Man, Definitely Jets three and a half. Definitely Washington

1224
00:59:40,920 --> 00:59:43,880
Speaker 3: three and a half. Obviously, people know the Chiefs. I

1225
00:59:43,920 --> 00:59:46,000
Speaker 3: was hammering that when it was plus money. Now like,

1226
00:59:46,040 --> 00:59:47,760
Speaker 3: obviously I'm gonna pull back, probably.

1227
00:59:47,520 --> 00:59:50,600
Speaker 2: Dory to hit the middle. We'll see how that Chiefs

1228
00:59:50,600 --> 00:59:51,000
Speaker 2: games go.

1229
00:59:51,120 --> 00:59:53,520
Speaker 3: I mean, if it goes as we expected to, If

1230
00:59:53,560 --> 00:59:56,360
Speaker 3: it lands and I do Middle, that Pittsburgh might have

1231
00:59:56,400 --> 00:59:57,640
Speaker 3: been one of my bigger bets as well.

1232
00:59:57,720 --> 00:59:59,160
Speaker 2: Like that's a type of type of situation.

1233
00:59:59,200 --> 01:00:01,880
Speaker 3: If I'm in the book, I know people who are like, oh,

1234
01:00:02,000 --> 01:00:04,400
Speaker 3: professionals don't do this. I'm telling you, professionals do this

1235
01:00:04,440 --> 01:00:06,040
Speaker 3: all the time. We just take that ticket right to

1236
01:00:06,080 --> 01:00:08,040
Speaker 3: the window and just throw it onto the next game.

1237
01:00:08,080 --> 01:00:10,560
Speaker 3: It's just you're playing with chips. It's not real money

1238
01:00:10,560 --> 01:00:13,320
Speaker 3: in my mind. So that's definitely a spot where it's like,

1239
01:00:13,360 --> 01:00:16,000
Speaker 3: if I hit that middle, I'm gonna be tempted a

1240
01:00:16,000 --> 01:00:17,920
Speaker 3: load up on this It's Pittsburgh number because it.

1241
01:00:17,880 --> 01:00:18,520
Speaker 2: Is so big.

1242
01:00:19,400 --> 01:00:22,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's a tough one. So yeah, for me,

1243
01:00:22,560 --> 01:00:23,560
Speaker 3: it's a dog heavy week.

1244
01:00:23,640 --> 01:00:23,800
Speaker 2: Chat.

1245
01:00:23,840 --> 01:00:25,720
Speaker 3: Like usually, I've been trying to force in a favorite,

1246
01:00:25,720 --> 01:00:27,240
Speaker 3: and I really don't have a favorite.

1247
01:00:27,280 --> 01:00:29,200
Speaker 2: I really love this week, I'll be honest.

1248
01:00:29,360 --> 01:00:32,560
Speaker 1: Other than Buffalo. Before we get out of here, let's

1249
01:00:32,560 --> 01:00:35,080
Speaker 1: bring in our director of research, Evan Abrams. We talk

1250
01:00:35,120 --> 01:00:37,320
Speaker 1: about them constantly on the show. He's gonna have the

1251
01:00:37,320 --> 01:00:39,160
Speaker 1: final awards. He's going to make us feel even better

1252
01:00:39,200 --> 01:00:41,320
Speaker 1: about betting all these home dogs, and we keep losing

1253
01:00:41,360 --> 01:00:46,800
Speaker 1: on the last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking.

1254
01:00:47,360 --> 01:00:49,800
Speaker 5: I'm gonna try here, but we're gonna start with the

1255
01:00:49,800 --> 01:00:52,680
Speaker 5: easy one, right, So Raven Steelers. We've talked a ton

1256
01:00:52,720 --> 01:00:55,479
Speaker 5: about the series stats, and yeah, they all favor the dog,

1257
01:00:55,560 --> 01:00:58,439
Speaker 5: but I think Lamar versus Tomlin is worth some time

1258
01:00:58,440 --> 01:01:00,920
Speaker 5: here as well. So Lamar is one and four straight,

1259
01:01:01,000 --> 01:01:04,000
Speaker 5: up and zero to five against the spread versus Tomlin.

1260
01:01:04,240 --> 01:01:06,720
Speaker 5: But look inside the numbers. So Lamar's passer rating of

1261
01:01:06,840 --> 01:01:10,240
Speaker 5: sixty six points seven versus Pittsburgh his lowest versus any

1262
01:01:10,280 --> 01:01:13,080
Speaker 5: opponent by almost ten full points. All right, so he

1263
01:01:13,080 --> 01:01:16,680
Speaker 5: has five passing touchdowns and eight picks versus Pittsburgh. He

1264
01:01:16,680 --> 01:01:19,840
Speaker 5: doesn't have a negative touchdown at interception ratio against any

1265
01:01:19,840 --> 01:01:23,760
Speaker 5: other NFL team in four or five starts. Lamar's under

1266
01:01:23,840 --> 01:01:26,800
Speaker 5: seven yards per attempt. And even looking at the Ravens

1267
01:01:26,840 --> 01:01:30,240
Speaker 5: this season, Ravens have five losses this year, four of

1268
01:01:30,280 --> 01:01:33,640
Speaker 5: them versus top seven pass rushes according to PFF, and

1269
01:01:33,680 --> 01:01:37,480
Speaker 5: Pittsburgh's first. So it's just a bad matchup. Now, this

1270
01:01:37,520 --> 01:01:39,720
Speaker 5: is where I was gonna actually use Chad the stat

1271
01:01:39,800 --> 01:01:43,160
Speaker 5: that you used of mine on the bad teams versus

1272
01:01:43,160 --> 01:01:45,440
Speaker 5: good teams. But it's a great stat. Go back into

1273
01:01:45,440 --> 01:01:47,640
Speaker 5: the pod, listen to it. I'm gonna talk a little

1274
01:01:47,640 --> 01:01:48,200
Speaker 5: bit about.

1275
01:01:47,960 --> 01:01:49,280
Speaker 2: The Jets pick that you guys like.

1276
01:01:49,400 --> 01:01:53,320
Speaker 5: So the Jets offense has been better now, score twenty

1277
01:01:53,320 --> 01:01:55,320
Speaker 5: one points or more in four straight games. But to me,

1278
01:01:55,560 --> 01:01:58,320
Speaker 5: this is about different numbers. If you like the Jets,

1279
01:01:58,520 --> 01:02:01,520
Speaker 5: So to me, it's a defense that's been bad obviously

1280
01:02:01,560 --> 01:02:04,600
Speaker 5: since Sala left thirty first in EPA per play thirtieth

1281
01:02:04,600 --> 01:02:07,680
Speaker 5: and success rate. But I think Rogers and the Cold

1282
01:02:08,000 --> 01:02:09,840
Speaker 5: it's a good angle there, So I got two more

1283
01:02:09,880 --> 01:02:14,240
Speaker 5: for you. Todd Bowles Sunday Night Football against the Cowboys.

1284
01:02:14,400 --> 01:02:17,400
Speaker 5: Bowles has coached seventeen games as a road favorite. When

1285
01:02:17,400 --> 01:02:20,360
Speaker 5: the home team scores fourteen points or more, he's five

1286
01:02:20,400 --> 01:02:21,400
Speaker 5: and zero against the spread.

1287
01:02:21,640 --> 01:02:22,520
Speaker 2: When the home team.

1288
01:02:22,360 --> 01:02:25,720
Speaker 5: Scores less more than fourteen points, he's three eight and

1289
01:02:25,840 --> 01:02:28,400
Speaker 5: one against the spread, losing six of those games outright.

1290
01:02:28,680 --> 01:02:31,320
Speaker 5: The Cowboys team total in that game is twenty two

1291
01:02:31,480 --> 01:02:34,280
Speaker 5: and a half, so obviously they're expecting some points, which

1292
01:02:34,320 --> 01:02:36,640
Speaker 5: seems like a little bit of a big favorite for him.

1293
01:02:36,800 --> 01:02:38,440
Speaker 5: And I'll leave you with this one. And I added

1294
01:02:38,480 --> 01:02:40,680
Speaker 5: it because you guys had so much back and forth

1295
01:02:40,920 --> 01:02:44,400
Speaker 5: on Bill's Patriots. So if Bills do get up early,

1296
01:02:44,440 --> 01:02:46,919
Speaker 5: say they lead seven to nothing. Since it started twenty

1297
01:02:46,960 --> 01:02:50,240
Speaker 5: twenty two, the Patriots are three and twenty seven straight

1298
01:02:50,320 --> 01:02:53,000
Speaker 5: up and four to twenty five and one against the

1299
01:02:53,040 --> 01:02:55,400
Speaker 5: spread when trailing by seven points or more at any

1300
01:02:55,440 --> 01:02:58,360
Speaker 5: point in the game, worst marks in the NFL. Even

1301
01:02:58,440 --> 01:03:01,280
Speaker 5: this year, they're zero to eight straight up one in

1302
01:03:01,440 --> 01:03:04,280
Speaker 5: seven against the spread, losing six of those eight games

1303
01:03:04,280 --> 01:03:06,680
Speaker 5: by double digits. So the bet to me is just

1304
01:03:07,000 --> 01:03:09,880
Speaker 5: start fast, get Drake in a hole, and Josh will

1305
01:03:09,880 --> 01:03:11,400
Speaker 5: take care of the rest.

1306
01:03:11,960 --> 01:03:17,480
Speaker 1: Amen, brother, That's how we see it too, Evan, we

1307
01:03:17,640 --> 01:03:21,960
Speaker 1: love Buffalo. We are all Matt Mitchell's this weekend. If

1308
01:03:21,960 --> 01:03:25,080
Speaker 1: the bill's covered by fourteen, I'm not going to eat

1309
01:03:25,120 --> 01:03:28,960
Speaker 1: like wings with you know, surgical gloves, because I'm not

1310
01:03:29,480 --> 01:03:33,840
Speaker 1: a crazy person like Matt Mitchell. But maybe i'd have

1311
01:03:33,880 --> 01:03:34,960
Speaker 1: a spoonful of ice cream.

1312
01:03:35,320 --> 01:03:37,120
Speaker 2: Wait real quick, Yeah, we gotta do scooch for lot.

1313
01:03:38,440 --> 01:03:41,520
Speaker 1: When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.

1314
01:03:43,240 --> 01:03:45,680
Speaker 2: Let's play Scooch Rolette.

1315
01:03:47,480 --> 01:03:49,560
Speaker 3: I'll go with Pittsburgh plus six and a half. Hearing

1316
01:03:49,560 --> 01:03:50,880
Speaker 3: those Evans stats, how can I not?

1317
01:03:51,360 --> 01:03:51,440
Speaker 1: All?

1318
01:03:51,520 --> 01:03:51,600
Speaker 5: Right?

1319
01:03:51,640 --> 01:03:53,760
Speaker 1: Well, guess what I'm taking? The New York Jets? What

1320
01:03:53,960 --> 01:03:56,200
Speaker 1: number can I get them at? Three and a half? Please,

1321
01:03:56,600 --> 01:04:00,160
Speaker 1: we'll give it to you, Thank you, thank you. Here's

1322
01:04:00,160 --> 01:04:02,760
Speaker 1: a reminder. The Favorite podcast is presented by Bet three

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01:04:02,800 --> 01:04:06,160
Speaker 1: sixty five and now new BED three sixty five. Customers

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Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when

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Speaker 1: you bet five dollars. Sign up using promo code Favorites

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Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars in place a bet for five dollars

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Speaker 1: three sixty five must be twenty one or older and

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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,

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01:04:32,200 --> 01:04:35,320
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms.

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Speaker 1: Conditioned restrictions apply. Salmon and I will return with our

1335
01:04:42,520 --> 01:04:45,520
Speaker 1: next episode of The Favorites on the Action Network YouTube

1336
01:04:45,520 --> 01:04:49,680
Speaker 1: page Sunday night, seven point thirty Eastern to recap NFL

1337
01:04:49,960 --> 01:04:53,400
Speaker 1: Week sixteen. Download us from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you

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01:04:53,400 --> 01:04:56,040
Speaker 1: get your pods, rate review, subscribe, U US five stars,

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01:04:56,080 --> 01:04:58,960
Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift until next time.

1340
01:04:59,320 --> 01:05:11,400
Speaker 1: I Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly

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Speaker 1: if you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.

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Speaker 1: hundred Gambler