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Speaker 1: all right time for an instant reaction. I got to
Speaker 1: be honest, I've already sent Justin Herbert a text. I've
Speaker 1: poured one tonight just for this thirty four to twenty
Speaker 1: seven chargers. When whoever won, I was happy, although I
Speaker 1: did pick the charger, so I'm a little happier, you know.
Speaker 1: I've said this is when I started the volume. One
Speaker 1: of the things I really really like. When I was
Speaker 1: in my twenties and thirties, I was probably just too
Speaker 1: selfish to help anybody else. I was into my thing
Speaker 1: and I didn't you know, I was unmarried. And then
Speaker 1: you get older and older, and you have kids, and
Speaker 1: you get married, and you know, over time, you know,
Speaker 1: hopefully you have something in you that you want to
Speaker 1: see others succeed. And I love seeing young quarterbacks in
Speaker 1: the NFL get the right coach, and Bonix could have gotten,
Speaker 1: you know, countless coaches that couldn't help him. And he's
Speaker 1: still he is still learning. But in that first half,
Speaker 1: that was all on script, those first two or three series,
Speaker 1: and bo Nix was great because he's now got his mentor,
Speaker 1: he's got his kingpin, he's got Sean Payton. Now the
Speaker 1: second half it's not on script. That's about talent, and
Speaker 1: Justin Herbert took over. Herbert's more talented, bigger, stronger. He's
Speaker 1: just a more talented, experienced quarterback. In the NFL, but
Speaker 1: both of these guys, these two teams last year were
Speaker 1: thirteen and twenty one. I mean, think about that, and
Speaker 1: right now they're eighteen and twelve and both are going
Speaker 1: to make the playoffs. One got a coach and one
Speaker 1: Sean Payton got a quarterback. And this tonight was a
Speaker 1: PSA for the league. You get the right coach, you
Speaker 1: get the right quarterback, you can turn it around in
Speaker 1: one season. It doesn't even matter in the NBA if
Speaker 1: you land Jannis or jokicch it takes years and years
Speaker 1: to build up to be viable in Major League Baseball.
Speaker 1: I mean, there's just some teams that can't afford it, right.
Speaker 1: But in the NFL, Houston was a laughing stock, a
Speaker 1: bottom three team in the league. To meet O'Ryan c J.
Speaker 1: Stroud playoffs. The Chargers last year, I think by the
Speaker 1: end of the year they had a team mutiny. They
Speaker 1: were one of the three worst teams in the league.
Speaker 1: This defense is all the same guys now. The offense
Speaker 1: got Joe Alt and Laddi McConkie. No question upgrades, but
Speaker 1: they're so beat up. Now they're using a defensive tackle.
Speaker 1: Are the Chargers as one of their skill people, Matt Locke,
Speaker 1: give me a break. They're using return guys and Quinton
Speaker 1: Johnson still can't catch. I mean, this is the second
Speaker 1: half is you know, Joel and Laddi McConkie have obviously helped,
Speaker 1: but the Chargers are so beat up on the back
Speaker 1: end of their defense, and they're beat up at tight end.
Speaker 1: They didn't have Will Disley. You know, they don't have JK. Dobbins,
Speaker 1: and you know there's still a draft away. They're about
Speaker 1: six players away. They needed to tight end another running back,
Speaker 1: although Gus Edwards had a great, huge run of the game.
Speaker 1: But it just shows you why the NFL is king.
Speaker 1: You just either get a coach, get a quarterback, or
Speaker 1: Houston get both and you're a playoff team. And it's
Speaker 1: just I've always called the NFL the League of hope.
Speaker 1: But let's first start with the Chargers. They were what
Speaker 1: did al Michael say tonight? I can't believe al Michaels
Speaker 1: is this good at eighty. The guy is such a
Speaker 1: talented guy. Al Michaels is still funny and quick, and
Speaker 1: he and Herb Street sound like they like each other.
Speaker 1: Al Michaels is so good at eighty years old, is insane.
Speaker 1: He just signed for next year, by the way, but
Speaker 1: you know that he had said at one point the
Speaker 1: Chargers were like, oh, for their last eleven and games
Speaker 1: decided by three points or less, they just don't know
Speaker 1: how to win, you know, they just just don't know
Speaker 1: how to win. And they take this team at the
Speaker 1: end of last year. It was a disaster at the
Speaker 1: end of the year, could have been the worst thing
Speaker 1: in the league. Same guys on defense, and in fact
Speaker 1: half the defense and guys in the back end are hurt.
Speaker 1: Derwin James is healthy in carrying them, but they're all
Speaker 1: banged up, and look at them. And it was such
Speaker 1: a testament to Harbaugh's coaching, because, I mean, Harbaugh and
Speaker 1: Herbert tonight won the game. Harbaugh's halftime adjustments and Jesse
Speaker 1: Minter and then Herbert in the second half scrambling on
Speaker 1: a bad ankle for a first down, that throw for
Speaker 1: a touchdown in the end zone, moving to his left,
Speaker 1: throwing it off his bad foot. It was just a
Speaker 1: Herbert Harbaugh second half of just great coaching. Smart adjustments.
Speaker 1: Herbert doing what he's doing, It's just it makes me
Speaker 1: really happy. I feel really bad for Caleb Williams. None
Speaker 1: of it is his fault. I just feel bad for
Speaker 1: the kid. And maybe it's because in my life I've
Speaker 1: had really you know, I've been very fortunate that I've
Speaker 1: landed at good spaces, especially early in my career when
Speaker 1: I didn't know what the hell I was doing. It's
Speaker 1: just so important. I tell my kids this all the time.
Speaker 1: It's not just about you. You're gonna hopefully find somebody
Speaker 1: that can mentor you cares about your well being and
Speaker 1: you know, in the job market, and they will make
Speaker 1: the best out of you. And I feel like that's
Speaker 1: what Jim Harbaugh is doing to Herbert, and that's what
Speaker 1: Sean Payton's doing to bow Nicks. Both teams are a
Speaker 1: draft away, right. Denver didn't have a ton of depth.
Speaker 1: The Chargers need more weapons and a couple of corners.
Speaker 1: But in the end of the half sequence was so
Speaker 1: perfectly Harbaugh. He's competing to the very end. I mean,
Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh is competing to the very end. And some
Speaker 1: people say he's weird, he's intense. Okay, it's the NFL.
Speaker 1: Belichick was intense, Dan Campbell's intense, John Payton's intense. So
Speaker 1: into the first half, you know, they get that field goal,
Speaker 1: and that's just Harriball battling to the end. So there's
Speaker 1: a big difference between going in down what they would
Speaker 1: have been and then the field goal. You got a
Speaker 1: real football game, and trailing eight at half feels a
Speaker 1: lot different than trailing by twelve. And I mean that
Speaker 1: kind of momentum into the locker room changed the energy
Speaker 1: and the juice, And I thought Denver had all the
Speaker 1: juice in the first half and the Chargers had all
Speaker 1: of the juice with that field goal going into intermission
Speaker 1: in the second half, and the Chargers outscored the Broncos
Speaker 1: twenty four to six once Hardball called that timeout end
Speaker 1: of the first half and got the free kick before halftime,
Speaker 1: twenty four to six. Just battling and fighting to the
Speaker 1: very end. Herbert in the second half, by the way,
Speaker 1: Jesus and he again he is working with return guys,
Speaker 1: a first round receiver that can't catch a defensive lineman.
Speaker 1: Back up running back Herbert in the second half eleven
Speaker 1: fifteen two touchdowns, passer reigning of one forty two point
Speaker 1: eight Jesus. I mean, it's just, it is just I
Speaker 1: just isn't it crazy?
Speaker 2: Is that?
Speaker 1: You know Sean Payton takes this shipwreck Denver. I think
Speaker 1: I like their GM, but it's a mess. They're in
Speaker 1: dead cap hell in the AFC. And before the season started,
Speaker 1: Vegas adam at five and a half wins, and I
Speaker 1: thought that, I said it was my favorite double wind toadal.
Speaker 1: I thought they would double that. I thought they'd get
Speaker 1: in kind of the nine eight nine category. They're gonna
Speaker 1: make the playoffs. They're in with nine wins now, and
Speaker 1: they'll they'll win one of their final three games, and
Speaker 1: I think their cap of winning a playoff game. I
Speaker 1: don't think Denver's capable of winning two or three, but
Speaker 1: I think they're capable of winning a playoff game. I
Speaker 1: feel the same way about the Chargers. They kind of
Speaker 1: have to win one way. You know, they've got to
Speaker 1: have Herbert be superman, They've got to have everybody healthy.
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh's got this feel. Pittsburgh, Denver and the Chargers those
Speaker 1: are one playoff win teams. Herbert finishes the night about
Speaker 1: when is it twenty three to thirty one? Three hundred yards.
Speaker 1: It is. It's just you know, remember a couple of
Speaker 1: years ago and the media, you know, the media went
Speaker 1: to a weird thing where it was very sensitive. And
Speaker 1: I remember about three or four years ago, and the
Speaker 1: media was just saying, Oh, these Thursday night games, they're
Speaker 1: unfair to players. Oh give me a break. So I
Speaker 1: called players, I talked to coaches, and the players I
Speaker 1: talked to are like, we love Thursday night games. Usually
Speaker 1: it's a division rival, so you don't have to do
Speaker 1: a ton of film study. Like tonight, you're playing somebody
Speaker 1: you know, and it's usually a division game, so the
Speaker 1: travel isn't too long. It's a two hour flight somewhere,
Speaker 1: and you don't hit during that week, and then you
Speaker 1: get almost a second by week. And the media was
Speaker 1: freaking out about Thursday night games. We've had some sensational
Speaker 1: Thursday night games. Tonight was sensational. I thought it would
Speaker 1: be much sloppier. I thought Denver was so crisp in
Speaker 1: the first half. Now in the second half, Denver, I mean,
Speaker 1: let's face it, they aided the Chargers on that long drive.
Speaker 1: They had a couple of guys off sides. That was
Speaker 1: a huge break there. Were two big moments in the
Speaker 1: game for me. That the end of the halftime kick,
Speaker 1: and then Denver had a series of penalties as the
Speaker 1: Chargers got that big drive which eventually ended up with
Speaker 1: Herbert making that throw for a touchdown in the end zone.
Speaker 1: But they have three or four defensive penalties and that
Speaker 1: really gave them. They really seized momentum and you could
Speaker 1: hear the crowd a little bit getting into it, and god,
Speaker 1: that was just fun. Although my phone dranking, it's probably
Speaker 1: justin Herbert. I'm sorry to be obnoxious. Can I be happy? Okay?
Speaker 1: So a big topic of conversation before I get the
Speaker 1: Chad Millman has been the NBA ratings this week, and
Speaker 1: I saw JJ Reddick said tonight, you know the league
Speaker 1: needs to be celebrated. No, the NBA needs to be audited.
Speaker 1: Don't blame the fans because the ratings are down. If
Speaker 1: you own a restaurant and people aren't buying certain items
Speaker 1: on the menu, change the menu. The audience is right,
Speaker 1: the consumer's right. The NBA is celebrated too much. The
Speaker 1: players are pampered and coddled and not called out enough.
Speaker 1: I mean good hell. Adam Silver two years ago said
Speaker 1: our players are miserable. Twitter is making them miserable. Can
Speaker 1: you imagine a football player saying that, give me a break.
Speaker 1: The league is celebrated constantly. It needs to be audited,
Speaker 1: It needs to be held accountable. Load management's crap. The
Speaker 1: three point shooting is gross. In fact, did you notice
Speaker 1: who talked about the three point shooting? Lebron James was
Speaker 1: asked about the All Star Game changes and he dropped
Speaker 1: an F bomb and said, here's what I notice. Teams
Speaker 1: are shooting way too many threes. Lebron James said that
Speaker 1: a guy that loves the game. Joe Mizzoula, the coach
Speaker 1: of the Celtics, was asked this week about the ratings
Speaker 1: and he said, yeah, I don't watch our game either.
Speaker 1: So that's the championship coach and the best player in
Speaker 1: the last twenty years criticizing the league from a position
Speaker 1: of power, not seeking attention. In fact, Lebron didn't want
Speaker 1: to go into it. He kept saying, I don't want
Speaker 1: to get too into it. So the people that are
Speaker 1: criticizing the NBA are not bringing a hatchet. They're not
Speaker 1: anti this or pro nostalgia. When your stuff isn't selling,
Speaker 1: change the menu. Rob Manford did, and Adam Silver needs
Speaker 1: to for the record, when you make changes to your menu,
Speaker 1: to your business, the consumer always responds, ohways, I mean
Speaker 1: baseball was in a fifteen year drought. Rob Manfred made
Speaker 1: two changes. The ratings went up the last two years.
Speaker 1: This year they went through the roof during the postseason.
Speaker 1: People want to watch sports. I want to watch the NBA.
Speaker 1: I tried watching the championship NBA Cup Oklahoma City was
Speaker 1: five to thirty two from threes. It was awful. It
Speaker 1: was unwatchable. It was drack. So you know, nobody's against
Speaker 1: the NBA. People at criticize it. Watch it. I watch
Speaker 1: it all the time. I don't really get into it
Speaker 1: until the football season's done. But you know by February,
Speaker 1: you know, you have the two weeks before the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: I start watching thirty minutes a night, forty minutes a night.
Speaker 1: So I thought it was interesting that Joe Missoula and
Speaker 1: Lebron James both came out and were critical esthetically of
Speaker 1: the current product. It's not a good watch and when
Speaker 1: something falls off the cliff in two years, three years,
Speaker 1: got to look in the mirror. It's not about celebrating
Speaker 1: it's about auditing. That's something baseball did recently and something
Speaker 1: the NFL does annually. NFL is King for a lot
Speaker 1: of reasons. One of the reasons the ability to self police,
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Speaker 4: Slash bball. Let's talk about the Chicago Bears. So they
Speaker 4: lost to the Vikings.
Speaker 1: I didn't think Sam Darnold played particularly well, but he's
Speaker 1: getting the ball to TJ. Hawkinson, Jordan Addison, and Justin Jefferson,
Speaker 1: so he's getting the ball to the right people. I
Speaker 1: thought he was a little high, missed some throws, but
Speaker 1: overall Minnesota was picked for third or fourth. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's all gravy at this point. First, let's start with
Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears. There are a couple franchises in this
Speaker 1: league that are just broken, and I think the Chicago
Speaker 1: Bears are top of the list. It's a broken franchise.
Speaker 1: The mccaskeys are arguably the worst owners in the league,
Speaker 1: oldest and among the poorest. Really out of touch. Kevin
Speaker 1: Warrens the president. I've been told for years, highly political.
Speaker 1: Charles Robinson of Yahoo reporting today that you know somebody
Speaker 1: that seeks power and to retain power. That's a little
Speaker 1: what I was told years ago. Don't know him personally,
Speaker 1: but that's what I've been told from two sources. I
Speaker 1: trust Ryan Poles is young. You know, I'm hit and
Speaker 1: miss on polls. I love the Monte Montes sweat deal,
Speaker 1: the DJ Moore deal. I don't think he's the problem
Speaker 1: in the organization. I think Ryan Poles is struggling with
Speaker 1: the people above him. But a great example of the dysfunction.
Speaker 1: So Matt Ebraflus, a defensive coach, was fired. Well, defensive
Speaker 1: coaches don't have the offensive connections that offensive coaches do.
Speaker 1: I mean, there is a reason Andy Reid keeps hiring
Speaker 1: really good offensive coaches right like their offense. Now, Reid
Speaker 1: does most of the play calling, but Doug Peterson got
Speaker 1: a head coaching job. Matt Naggy got a head coaching job,
Speaker 1: and by the way, got Mitt Trubisky to the playoffs twice.
Speaker 1: So you can say all you want about Matt Naggy.
Speaker 1: You die for Matt Naggy now in Chicago. And then
Speaker 1: there's a reason that Belichick had to rely on Josh McDaniels.
Speaker 1: When Josh left. You know, Bill was scrambling to find
Speaker 1: an offensive coordinator, but Sean McVay can find one every
Speaker 1: two years. So Thomas Brown was under Shane Waldron. Well,
Speaker 1: Eberflus doesn't have a lot of great offensive connections, clearly
Speaker 1: because when Shane Waldron left Chicago of Seattle, he was criticized.
Speaker 1: They rolled their eyes at him. He went to Chicago,
Speaker 1: it was a mess with Caleb Williams. Then Thomas Brown,
Speaker 1: who's a bright young guy. He coached with the Rams,
Speaker 1: but you know he is an interim head coach. He's had.
Speaker 1: This is his third different job this season with the Bears.
Speaker 1: I mean, HR is probably asking him to slow down
Speaker 1: so they can get his paycheck, right, I'm not going
Speaker 1: to blame him, but eber flu selected this staff and
Speaker 1: it's not very good. I think it's a broken franchise.
Speaker 1: And you know, my take is, if you're really honest
Speaker 1: about it, you know what they remind me of. I
Speaker 1: was thinking about it tonight. They remind me a lot.
Speaker 1: The Bears are the Chargers last season where they had
Speaker 1: a talented young quarterback, some really nice pieces, but major
Speaker 1: cultural issues and what did they do. They went and
Speaker 1: got Jim Harbaugh to fix it. And that's why Mike
Speaker 1: frabels the higher Vrabel is Dan Campbell less, reckless, He's
Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh, but to this point hasn't been as successful.
Speaker 1: He's a really smart guy. He's a culture changer. There's
Speaker 1: no bullshit with him. He's very honest and very upfront,
Speaker 1: and he got to an AFC championship, you know, with Tennessee.
Speaker 1: So I just think Vrabel's the call here. Vrabel, you know,
Speaker 1: and I've talked to Mike about this. Vrabel is the
Speaker 1: kind of guy that will come in and the only
Speaker 1: thing that would get in his way is a Kevin
Speaker 1: Warren level executive that was trying to retain power. If
Speaker 1: Frabel has some saying personnel, he's pretty good at that
Speaker 1: and has a great relationship with the general manager who
Speaker 1: he can answer to and trust I think Rabel could
Speaker 1: win immediately. I think you know again, I'll say this,
Speaker 1: the Bears have a Chargers feel now. The Chargers are
Speaker 1: not going to go from what they were last year
Speaker 1: to a super Bowl. They need another draft. They have
Speaker 1: to hit on another receiver, maybe another tight end, another
Speaker 1: running back. They need more pieces offensively, and the Bears
Speaker 1: with Rabel are not winning a super Bowl, especially out
Speaker 1: of that division. And I think the Bears need to
Speaker 1: shore up the offensive line, but more than that, you know,
Speaker 1: maybe another edge rusher. More than that, I think it's
Speaker 1: just a cultural modification is what they need. But it's rough.
Speaker 1: I mean, you can say what you want about the
Speaker 1: Jets and Woody Johnson, and I think he's one of
Speaker 1: the weaker owners, but they have a good roster. Aaron's
Speaker 1: played well in the last three to four weeks. He's
Speaker 1: had one hundred plus passer rating I think on average
Speaker 1: over the last four weeks. The Giants have issues, but
Speaker 1: you know, there's some pieces there that defensive front, and
Speaker 1: la Mars don't want to fire Brian Dable because they've
Speaker 1: run through coaches, but the team looks like they've quit.
Speaker 1: But with Chicago there's just I mean, there's just not
Speaker 1: much to like. I like Montes Sweat and Jayalen Johns.
Speaker 1: I like Caleb Williams. You know, DJ Moore, Swift, the
Speaker 1: running back, there's some Pete Cole command, there's some pieces
Speaker 1: I like, But I don't know what you do other
Speaker 1: than hire Mike Vrabel. This is not a job for
Speaker 1: a coordinator. Give me a break. You're not going to
Speaker 1: get a Ben Johnson here, Bobby Slowick. It's not going
Speaker 1: to turn this thing around. You're a mile from that.
Speaker 1: And I'll make this argument, I think, And I talked
Speaker 1: to Mike Vrabel about this, and my suggestion to him is,
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if I take a job this year,
Speaker 1: I think next year you could have much more attractive openings.
Speaker 1: If Joe Burrow is getting really tired of Zach Taylor,
Speaker 1: the coach of Cincinnati, they won't fire him at the
Speaker 1: end of this year. But if Joe Burrow makes demands,
Speaker 1: Zach Taylor's in trouble next year. For Joe Burrow to
Speaker 1: ream Zach Taylor out, knowing he's on TV the way
Speaker 1: he reamed him out. Burrow's got no time for this
Speaker 1: nonsense in Cincinnati. So that job could be open next year.
Speaker 1: I think Mike McCarthy in Dallas, I think he's probably
Speaker 1: saved his job, right, he's probably saved it. And if
Speaker 1: Dallas can move Michael Parsons get a couple of first
Speaker 1: round picks, hit on those you know, who knows. But
Speaker 1: also I think that could be open. So you know,
Speaker 1: seven different coaches get whacked every year. I just don't
Speaker 1: like the job openings. I love Caleb Williams Chicago. To
Speaker 1: me is it feels like quicksand for a coach. You know,
Speaker 1: Jacksonville's got an opening. There's a reason everybody fails here
Speaker 1: in Jacksonville. It just since Tom Coughlin left, it's just
Speaker 1: dead coach walking. Nobody works there. So there's got to
Speaker 1: be something systemic within the organization. And I think what
Speaker 1: you're really seeing now. And I was having this discussion
Speaker 1: this weekend with somebody I respect a lot, and he said,
Speaker 1: you know, you just you start looking around this league
Speaker 1: and it's just the power of ten. There's about ten
Speaker 1: good gms, ted good owners, ten good quarterbacks, ten good
Speaker 1: left tackles, and I just don't like. If you're Mike Vrabel,
Speaker 1: I don't like what's out there. I love Chicago, it's
Speaker 1: a great city. They're good pieces. But man, anybody watching
Speaker 1: this show, watching this podcast, or listening, it does not
Speaker 1: matter how good the employees are. If ownership and management
Speaker 1: is sideways, it doesn't matter. I've said this before. I've
Speaker 1: been really fortunate. I had a really good ownership in
Speaker 1: Las Vegas my first job. Obviously, ESPN and Fox are
Speaker 1: well run companies. At Portland, I thought we had good ownership,
Speaker 1: good management. I worked in Tampa for a couple of
Speaker 1: years and really really talented people in the newsroom, photo journalists, producers, reporters, anchors.
Speaker 1: It was not the employees. I thought management was a
Speaker 1: circus and I'll just leave it at that, and you
Speaker 1: couldn't overcome it. And it was a real learning moment
Speaker 1: for me, is that the employee base was the best
Speaker 1: I'd ever worked with. At the time, I thought there
Speaker 1: was just so many talented people. Our sports department was
Speaker 1: just really fun, clever, smart people. But you can't like
Speaker 1: in Chicago. It doesn't matter if Rabel's the coach and
Speaker 1: he's trying to change things eventually, if people are political upstairs.
Speaker 1: I mean it's it's like, look at the Jets, they
Speaker 1: fire Robert Sali the best coach on the staff. I mean,
Speaker 1: going into a game against Buffalo, if they won it,
Speaker 1: there they were in first place. I mean they fired
Speaker 1: Joe Douglas. Well, Douglas got Devonte Adams, who's playing great now.
Speaker 1: Joe Douglas missed on a quarterback. But Joe Douglass. That
Speaker 1: Jets roster they've got, dudes, I mean they really do.
Speaker 1: They're going to get another very good first round pick
Speaker 1: this year. They've got a left tackle for the future,
Speaker 1: they've got their corner, they've got weapons. I mean they
Speaker 1: can they can really be selected. The Jets could move
Speaker 1: down in the first round and get four or five.
Speaker 1: You know, if they moved down and got another second
Speaker 1: round pick or a second and a fourth round pick,
Speaker 1: you could have five new starters on the team next year.
Speaker 1: And I think the Jets, I mean, they really have
Speaker 1: their weapons. They have their left tackle, the Penn State kid,
Speaker 1: a couple of good receivers, good corners, pass rushers. So
Speaker 1: I mean, I I mean I thought saw when Joe
Speaker 1: Douglas were capable.
Speaker 2: They're both out.
Speaker 1: So there's nothing you can do if upstairs is messed up.
Speaker 1: There's just in my experience in life. There's nothing you
Speaker 1: can do, you know, it's I make picks blazing five,
Speaker 1: and I had another terrible week. Generally, I've been doing
Speaker 1: this Blazing five thing for like twenty years, and on
Speaker 1: average I hit about fifty six percent, fifty five, fifty
Speaker 1: seven percent. This is my worst year easily. I don't
Speaker 1: know why. I've just struggled all year long. But I'm
Speaker 1: actually it's funny because on the b preseason predictions for
Speaker 1: division champions, I've actually had the best year I've ever had.
Speaker 1: I had Buffalo, Kansas City, Baltimore and the Texans winning
Speaker 1: their division. If Baltimore beats the Steelers Saturday, I'll be
Speaker 1: four for four. Heading to the last couple of weeks,
Speaker 1: I had Philly, the Rams, Green Bay, and the Falcons
Speaker 1: winning their divisions. Philly and the Rams du lead. Green
Speaker 1: Bay and the Falcons still have a shot, although Atlanta
Speaker 1: right now they'll beating the Raiders tonight. They got to
Speaker 1: get quarterback solved. My two dark horse teams were Washington
Speaker 1: and Denver. They'll both make the playoffs. So I actually
Speaker 1: have in terms of predictions, I think I've had a
Speaker 1: really good year. I don't know why. I'm struggling so much.
Speaker 1: I've just been out of rhythm. You know. The weekends
Speaker 1: I take favorites, they go belly up. The weekends I
Speaker 1: take dogs. I have the wrong ones. But I love
Speaker 1: doing it, and I always feel bad. I don't mind
Speaker 1: losing money. I don't like anybody else to lose it.
Speaker 1: But I've been picking football games for so long. You
Speaker 1: know an old story. When I first moved to Las Vegas,
Speaker 1: I had no money, I was out of college, and
Speaker 1: I drove down to Vegas in a blue AMC Pacer
Speaker 1: that later caught fire. A couple of years later, on
Speaker 1: Charleston and Oak Streets in Las Vegas, I had Texaco
Speaker 1: station I pulled in my car was on fire. And
Speaker 1: I remember when I first moved to Vegas, I'd never
Speaker 1: met football games, and so I was a huge Pack
Speaker 1: ten fan, and so I really started hitting on a
Speaker 1: lot of Pac ten picks because all the games weren't televised.
Speaker 1: I knew the Pacific Northwest teams really well because I
Speaker 1: was from there. I remember one year, I think I
Speaker 1: was like ten and one on Oregon State games. I
Speaker 1: just could not miss on the Beavers. And I just
Speaker 1: love picking football games. But I have stunk this year.
Speaker 1: And what's interesting is that Nick Wright and Danny Parkins
Speaker 1: at FS one have both been on fire, hitting like
Speaker 1: sixty five percent. So congrats to those guys.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: My overall takeaway really on the playoffs this year is
Speaker 1: there's not a lot of surprises. I mean, right now,
Speaker 1: I have If Baltimore beats the Steelers Saturday, I'll have
Speaker 1: you know, six of the eight teams I picked to
Speaker 1: win the division winning and Green Bay and the Falcons close.
Speaker 1: What is pretty clear, and the reason I picked those
Speaker 1: teams to win the division was like head coach and quarterback.
Speaker 1: And so I think the one thing I look at
Speaker 1: this year is a real positive. I think Caleb can play.
Speaker 1: I think Jayden Daniels can play. I think Bone Knicks
Speaker 1: can play. My guess is JJ McCarthy can play. I
Speaker 1: don't know what the hell's going on with Michael Pennix,
Speaker 1: because I really liked him out of college. I thought
Speaker 1: he was a bigger, stronger, better deep ball to and
Speaker 1: Tua is more than capable, but he just can't throw
Speaker 1: the ball deep down field. He's not good against pressure
Speaker 1: or really elite defenses or in cold weather. You have
Speaker 1: to qualify everything with Tua. I think panic Sort is
Speaker 1: a much better sharper, deep ball, stronger, longer, just a
Speaker 1: bigger athlete. But I think we have a chance to
Speaker 1: go five for five with quarterbacks. And this is not
Speaker 1: a great quarterback year in college. But if the quarterbacks
Speaker 1: go four for five or five for five this group
Speaker 1: of quarterbacks, it will be the third draft since around
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen where you've had multiple first round quarterbacks hit.
Speaker 1: And I don't think we'll ever get to a saturation
Speaker 1: point where you know everybody's got their quarterback. But I
Speaker 1: don't remember a time where there were this many good quarterbacks.
Speaker 1: I mean, I mean, even Aaron Rodgers in the last
Speaker 1: month has been unbelievable. Jordan Love Jyaln Hurts this weekend
Speaker 1: was sensational. You know, bo Nix makes mistakes, but he's
Speaker 1: clearly a franchise guy. His toughness, his athletic ability. He's
Speaker 1: had a better arm I think in the pros and
Speaker 1: I thought he had in college. So I think, big picture,
Speaker 1: as the leagues become more have and have nots, I
Speaker 1: think we had another bumper quarterback draft class. I only
Speaker 1: saw JJ McCarthy in the preseason. But in the couple appearances,
Speaker 1: I thought he was really quick, really nimble, and he
Speaker 1: reminded me a little bit of Sam Darnold that he
Speaker 1: was really aggressive. And I think Kevin O'Connell's proven the
Speaker 1: Vikings head coach, he can coach a lot of that
Speaker 1: out of you. And another part of this quarterback journey
Speaker 1: is there's better quarterback coaches. I mean this, so I
Speaker 1: think the guy down in Tampa, Liam Cohen under Baker Mayfield,
Speaker 1: who was briefly in Los Angeles, I think he's going
Speaker 1: to get looks. I think the quality of offensive coaching
Speaker 1: has really improved. That's why you're seeing Donald and Baker
Speaker 1: Mayfield a rebirth. I think there's sensational coaching offensively. I
Speaker 1: didn't feel that fifteen years ago in the NFL. I
Speaker 1: think it's everywhere, and I think the talent's everywhere. So
Speaker 1: I mean, yesterday we had a really ugly one o'clock window.
Speaker 1: It was the first time all year I was bored
Speaker 1: watching the NFL where I thought, man, we just this
Speaker 1: is just a batterly window. But I mean this weekend,
Speaker 1: the college and the pro games this weekend starting Friday night,
Speaker 1: Indian at Notre Dame. The next Friday, Saturday Sunday could
Speaker 1: be the most sensational three day stretch of football any year,
Speaker 1: and a lot of it is because of quarterback play
Speaker 1: and very sharp offensive coaching. All right, Time for Sharper
Speaker 1: Square my buddy Chad Millman, co host of the Favorites
Speaker 1: All Odds provided by DraftKings. You know, listen, the college
Speaker 1: football games this weekend won't get the NFL numbers because
Speaker 1: nothing in the world does. But there's some heaters and
Speaker 1: we'll get to that in about fifteen minutes. There's some
Speaker 1: fascinating games. I mean, I'm sorry, it doesn't make any
Speaker 1: sense because he's been so good. But if Ryan Day
Speaker 1: loses home to Tennessee, it's gonna be a shit storm
Speaker 1: in Columbus. It's gonna be crazy. So we'll get to
Speaker 1: that in fifteen minutes. Let's do Sharper Square. I've had
Speaker 1: a terrible year. I've had my worst year ever doing this,
Speaker 1: and I don't really know. I don't want to outthink
Speaker 1: the room. I'm about fifty five percent every year. I'm
Speaker 1: not a pro gambler, but I think I'm you know,
Speaker 1: in the ballpark. I've been terrible this year, and I can't.
Speaker 1: You know, I think a lot of it is I've
Speaker 1: always liked value and underdogs, and it just weeked a week.
Speaker 1: Some weeks I go dogs, favorites win, some week I
Speaker 1: go favorites. So I'm just going to give you my
Speaker 1: thought on this. The Chiefs are now three and a
Speaker 1: half point favorites. It's more stay away now. But when
Speaker 1: it was two and a half, even with Carson Wentz
Speaker 1: potentially playing, I love Kansas City. I think Carson Wentz
Speaker 1: for a week is fine for a season. You can't
Speaker 1: trust his health, so I would imagine it three and
Speaker 1: a half. The Sharps like the Texans. But if so,
Speaker 1: I like the two and a half and three Kansas City. Now,
Speaker 1: if I say I like Kansas City, is it square?
Speaker 2: Totally square? Yeah?
Speaker 5: The wise guys are playing the three and a half
Speaker 5: because up until last weekend, anytime you're betting on Patrick
Speaker 5: Mahomes as a more than three point favorite, you're making
Speaker 5: a negative ROI bet he just has not won as
Speaker 5: a favorite of more than three. Last weekend, obviously he did.
Speaker 5: They were four and a half point favorites. They covered,
Speaker 5: But even in that game, you saw the pressure getting
Speaker 5: to Mahomes consistently. You saw them lose the Browns because
Speaker 5: Jameis Winston had two interceptions in the end zone that
Speaker 5: were from in the Chiefs end zone from about his
Speaker 5: thirty yard line, so killing two drives. Plus they had
Speaker 5: three other turnovers, including to open the game. You look
Speaker 5: at that game, the defense gave up seven points, right,
Speaker 5: and so that game was closer statistically than you would
Speaker 5: imagine by.
Speaker 2: The score itself. So there is going to be a sentiment.
Speaker 5: You take the Texans at plus three and a half,
Speaker 5: at two and a half, one hundred percent people were
Speaker 5: still taking the Chiefs. That's why the number got all
Speaker 5: the way up to three and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So a prime example, the Steelers get beat and
Speaker 1: pretty soundly by Philadelphia. But what's lost in that game
Speaker 1: because they had eighty yards in the first half and
Speaker 1: only trailed seventeen thirteen in Philly. If Najee Harris doesn't fumble,
Speaker 1: we got ourselves a football game. Yes, to give the
Speaker 1: Steelers six and a half the you know what the
Speaker 1: Ravens are. They got they're the Mike Tyson. They cross
Speaker 1: their bullies first round knockouts against bad teams. You push
Speaker 1: them back. You make them think Baltimore can get beat
Speaker 1: by a lot of good teams. Pittsburgh pushes back. Tomlin
Speaker 1: is a six and a half point underdog, So I
Speaker 1: this to me is the steel of the week. Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: plus six and a half in Baltimore Sharper square.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Wise guys love this bad and it's almost become
Speaker 5: a blind bet in this series. Whise guys like Mike
Speaker 5: Tomlin as an underdog. Anyways, you're right that game, Nijie Harris,
Speaker 5: the Steelers were outplayed.
Speaker 2: And in the middle of the third the game fumbled
Speaker 2: the ball.
Speaker 5: If he doesn't fumble the ball, they're on the sixteen
Speaker 5: yard line. They're at least kicking a field goal to
Speaker 5: make it a twenty sixteen game, or they're scoring a
Speaker 5: touchdown to make it twenty twenty. Changes the game, right,
Speaker 5: Mike Tomlin. Mike Tomlin and Rob Ross spots any way
Speaker 5: you slice and dice it. Mike Tomlin as an underdog
Speaker 5: is the best coach in a generation against the spread.
Speaker 5: He is best coach in a generation winning straight up
Speaker 5: as an underdog in this series, specifically as a dog
Speaker 5: of three or more versus the Ravens, he is six
Speaker 5: and oh straight up, there are six and oh against
Speaker 5: the spread. He's thirteen two and two against spread versus
Speaker 5: Harbaugh when the line in this series is three or
Speaker 5: more points the past twenty years, so it's the Harbaugh
Speaker 5: Tomlin rain. The underdog is twenty three four and three
Speaker 5: against the spread. It's twenty fifteen underdogs sixteen into sixteen
Speaker 5: too and.
Speaker 2: One against the spread.
Speaker 5: So like, yeah, that there are times where you're nervous
Speaker 5: about playing into these trends. And we talked about this
Speaker 5: on the show last week betting the Steelers fading the Chiefs.
Speaker 5: Those were times we were nervous, Like it happens six
Speaker 5: times out of ten. This time it's happening eight times
Speaker 5: out of ten. So yeah, you're playing the Steelers.
Speaker 1: I like the forty nine ers plus one at the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: I think one of the things that's become pretty clear
Speaker 1: with the Dolphins is if they're not playing an oppressive
Speaker 1: humidity at home, they get pushed around by more physical teams.
Speaker 1: I think they're the ultimate finesse team in this league.
Speaker 1: And you know, as I watched them against Houston, it's
Speaker 1: just bubble screens. That's all they do. The two is
Speaker 1: now throwing forty times a game. That's way too much
Speaker 1: for two. With the teams like the Packers and the
Speaker 1: Eagles have scaled back with more talented quarterbacks to throw
Speaker 1: twenty four times a game. I think the forty nine ers,
Speaker 1: I think it comes down to pride. For brock Purty,
Speaker 1: it comes down to a contract. I like the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers. Here sharper square.
Speaker 5: Sharp ish, like the line opened one and a half.
Speaker 5: It's been bet down obviously from mean one and a
Speaker 5: half to one. For a minute, very hot minute, the
Speaker 5: Niners were favorites and then it sort of bounced back
Speaker 5: a little bit. But that money that's moving it is
Speaker 5: professional money in favor of the Niners. Not a huge
Speaker 5: sort of feeling on that game. They just sort of
Speaker 5: think that the Niners are probably a more physical team.
Speaker 5: Are they getting more healthy? They don't believe in the
Speaker 5: Dolphins is the bigger component of their thinking.
Speaker 1: Okay, the Colts were dominating the Broncos until Jonathan Taylor
Speaker 1: and it was a blowout. They go home now and
Speaker 1: have to swallow three and a half. But the Titans
Speaker 1: are they have Benchwill Levis. I was texting a GM
Speaker 1: this week and I said, I think if you gave
Speaker 1: Sam Darnold. With the Colts, they have the Viking season.
Speaker 1: I like their personnel. I mean, I haven't seen anybody
Speaker 1: this year, including the Chiefs, push the Broncos around, especially
Speaker 1: in Denver. I mean it was a mismatch. Three picks
Speaker 1: for bow Knicks. I think Indy, I don't care what
Speaker 1: the line is. I think they're going to come back.
Speaker 1: I think they're I think Chris Ballard's jobs in the line,
Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson's careers on the line, Shane Steichen with that
Speaker 1: trick play that got a pick six. I think Indy
Speaker 1: is inflamed, and I think they blow the Titans out
Speaker 1: Sharper square.
Speaker 5: So the wise guys are on Tennessee. This line was
Speaker 5: at four and a half even when Will Levis was
Speaker 5: possibly the quarterback. It's been beat down immediately with Mason
Speaker 5: Rudolph as the quarterback. The Wise guys have liked the
Speaker 5: Titans a lot this year. They've also liked the Colts
Speaker 5: this year. Their biggest fear is betting Anthony Richardson as
Speaker 5: a favorite. Like, if you want to talk about comps,
Speaker 5: the comps for Anthony Richardson and his completion percentage Right now,
Speaker 5: Tim Tebow and Akille Smith in the past twenty five years.
Speaker 5: This season will go down as one of the worst
Speaker 5: in completion percentage because of how badly Anthony Richardson is playing.
Speaker 5: And I think there was a sentiment after he was benched,
Speaker 5: he came back and he looked like he was a
Speaker 5: little bit more in control. They were putting him in
Speaker 5: better positions. He was just awful against the Broncos. They
Speaker 5: were winning that game in spite of him. And look
Speaker 5: like I was on the Colts last week, Jonathan Taylor
Speaker 5: dropping that ball was gut wrenching. I was on the
Speaker 5: Steelers last week, Nigee Harris dropping that ball, well, and
Speaker 5: this was all happening. If you're watching red Zone, this
Speaker 5: is like boom boom boom. It was just like gut
Speaker 5: punch after cup punch after gut punch. As a better
Speaker 5: but you felt like and I felt like Colts had
Speaker 5: no chance to get back into that game after they
Speaker 5: gave up the lead, because Anthony and Richardson can't win
Speaker 5: you a game, so they're going to have to dominate
Speaker 5: on the ground in order to cover this three and
Speaker 5: a half. And at the end of the day, he
Speaker 5: got to win by four points. That's a relatively big
Speaker 5: number on what should be a run heavy game in
Speaker 5: which the clock is running a lot. So I think
Speaker 5: the wise guys are still like in Tennessee in the hook.
Speaker 1: Part of me says I should love the Bears at
Speaker 1: home plus six and a half against Detroit. Jared Goff
Speaker 1: outside bad Weather, I defended Caleb Williams this week. He
Speaker 1: has more touchdown passes than Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray,
Speaker 1: more passing yards than Jalen Hurts, and hasn't had an
Speaker 1: interception since Halloween. Is that if you just look at
Speaker 1: the record, you would think he's awful and it's like, no, actually,
Speaker 1: all things considered now that he's with the third coach
Speaker 1: at home Detroit, defensively, I mean it's bad. It is.
Speaker 1: I mean eight nine yards a chunk. I think I
Speaker 1: like Chicago at home plus six and a half sharper square.
Speaker 5: Well, look, the wise guys like Chicago at home when
Speaker 5: it was at seven and a half and seven And
Speaker 5: this is one hundred percent a number play. You're not
Speaker 5: going to find anyone taking it at six and a half.
Speaker 5: If you're taking it at six and a half, We've
Speaker 5: talked about this you're just not getting the best of
Speaker 5: the number, and long term, that's a bad way to
Speaker 5: try to win games. You might win once in a while,
Speaker 5: but long term you want to be on the right
Speaker 5: side of the number. So the wise guys took the
Speaker 5: seven and a half. They took the seven. I think
Speaker 5: this is a really tricky game. At six and a
Speaker 5: half is a home dog in the division. Of course,
Speaker 5: I want to be on the Bears. I can't find
Speaker 5: a way to get that. I'm not saying I'm going
Speaker 5: to bet Detroit. But there's two schools of thought on
Speaker 5: Jared Goff. Jared Goff outside is terrible. Jared Goff indoors
Speaker 5: is unbeatable. Obviously that happened last week, so it's a hyperbole.
Speaker 5: But he tends to cover when he is indoors, tends
Speaker 5: to not when he is outside, and he is a
Speaker 5: covering machine over the past five years. I look at
Speaker 5: this in a different way. Sure, their defense is beat up,
Speaker 5: but all they have to do is hand the ball
Speaker 5: to Jamiir Gibbs. Because this Bears rush defense is just atrocious,
Speaker 5: like putrid. They are giving up one hundred yards every
Speaker 5: single game no matter who they play. Saw it again,
Speaker 5: last week against Minnesota. So I do worry that Detroit
Speaker 5: is going to come out in a bad mood and
Speaker 5: try to prove that there's still the class of the NFC.
Speaker 5: Run the ball down the bear's throat, and it doesn't
Speaker 5: really matter what Kayleb Williams does or what the weather is,
Speaker 5: they might dominate this game. So I can't I can't
Speaker 5: tell you at six and a half, you're making a
Speaker 5: good call.
Speaker 1: Okay, Rams is now only minus three. I would take
Speaker 1: them against the Jets. It was three and a half.
Speaker 1: I think the Jets played the last two weeks. DeVante
Speaker 1: Adams and Aaron Rodgers, you know, have clicked. But the
Speaker 1: Rams are playing for the playoffs and the Jets are
Speaker 1: playing for pride. I mean, between the documentary between Garrett
Speaker 1: Wilson wanting a trade, the story about Woody Johnson's kids,
Speaker 1: this has been a messy week for the Jets. I
Speaker 1: can gladly swallow the three for a much better team
Speaker 1: and a much more functional offense. Rams minus three sharper square.
Speaker 2: I mean why look, wise guys have been on the Jets.
Speaker 2: Oh week.
Speaker 5: The wise guys have been on the Jets for much
Speaker 5: of the year, and much to their dismay. Jeff Ulbrick,
Speaker 5: the coach, seems to find ways to play them out
Speaker 5: of wins and covers and then make the stupidest mistakes
Speaker 5: that actually leads them into a cover that they never
Speaker 5: should have covered. Right last week, he's going for the
Speaker 5: touchdown with a minute left when the Jacks have two timeouts.
Speaker 5: They end up covering the three point spread, winning by six,
Speaker 5: when really he should have kneeled down and left no
Speaker 5: time and kicked a field goal. Week before, making bad
Speaker 5: decisions at the end of the game, they end up
Speaker 5: losing the game to the Dolphins and not even covering
Speaker 5: the three point spread because they lose by six in overtime.
Speaker 5: So he's a menace when it comes to clock management,
Speaker 5: and he's a menace for betters.
Speaker 2: But the wise guys do love the Jets.
Speaker 5: Right now, Aaron Rodgers has been playing significantly better the.
Speaker 2: Past two weeks.
Speaker 5: You could argue, well, the old man went to Florida,
Speaker 5: and when you're old and you're in Florida, you're going
Speaker 5: to feel better. And now he's got to come back
Speaker 5: and play in the cold in New Jersey. But there
Speaker 5: is something about the Rams and the fact that they
Speaker 5: have to go into the cold too. Stafford does not
Speaker 5: perform as well then. And also, this is a team
Speaker 5: you get late in the year. You get teams that
Speaker 5: are what I like to call good ish, right fifty
Speaker 5: to sixty percent in terms of winning percentage, and they're
Speaker 5: playing bad teams on the road. That is a recipe
Speaker 5: for disaster in terms of covering the spread. Not saying
Speaker 5: they're going to lose, but those games tend to be closer.
Speaker 5: So the wise guys are definitely back in the Jets
Speaker 5: this week.
Speaker 1: Okay, I'm not prone to do this, but green Bay
Speaker 1: minus fourteen against the Saints just screams take the Packers.
Speaker 1: I thought their win at Seattle was so impressive because
Speaker 1: I do think Seattle has excellent defensive coaching. This has
Speaker 1: been a year of the favorites. I think the most
Speaker 1: underrated player in the league is Jordan Love. I think
Speaker 1: he's a magnificent talent. I think the Saints feel like
Speaker 1: a dead franchise. I think green Bay still has a chance.
Speaker 1: They really believe it. I think they're a better team
Speaker 1: this morning or this afternoon than Detroit. I don't like
Speaker 1: fourteen point favorites, but they're covering and favorites are covering,
Speaker 1: and I feel like I've got a ascending, young, healthy
Speaker 1: team against the dead franchise. I think Green Bay is
Speaker 1: one of the few places where home field is still
Speaker 1: three to three and a half points sharper square.
Speaker 5: Well, look, you're never gonna get a sharp confirmation on
Speaker 5: a fourteen point favorite. There are two fourteen point favorites
Speaker 5: this week, the Packers over the Saints the Bills over
Speaker 5: the Patriots. There's been more of a conversation around the
Speaker 5: Bills as fourteen point favorites. That line actually ticked up
Speaker 5: to fourteen and a half, and that was very much
Speaker 5: professionals betting on the Bills a team. Then it came
Speaker 5: down then some professionals, not a whole lot of them,
Speaker 5: but a couple of them were like, yeah, that's what
Speaker 5: half a point too far the Packers, Like, sure, there's
Speaker 5: nobody who's thinking they want to bet on the Saints,
Speaker 5: but there's not a rush to the window on the Packers.
Speaker 5: Everything you just said, everyone agrees with.
Speaker 2: It's why.
Speaker 5: Actually, the wise guys were on the Packers last week
Speaker 5: against the Seahawks.
Speaker 1: That was my favorite.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, mine too. It's your only bet.
Speaker 5: I won last week and so they were on him
Speaker 5: at two and a half. That was a great spot
Speaker 5: for the Packers, right. They had just lost a really
Speaker 5: hard game to the Lions, and I think that game
Speaker 5: gave them the confidence that you just talked about. You
Speaker 5: saw the mastery with which Lafour calls a game. Jordan
Speaker 5: Love has been much more cautious with the ball, hasn't
Speaker 5: been throwing interceptions. I think the Packers believe they are
Speaker 5: in the same class as the Vikings and the Lions
Speaker 5: and the Eagles, and I'd be hard pressed to disagree.
Speaker 5: I think it's harder to win as to touchdown favorites
Speaker 5: against a Saints team that like from a from a
Speaker 5: from a wise guy perspective. They just don't like this
Speaker 5: game as much as they would like the Bills and
Speaker 5: the Patriots. And I can tell you why they like
Speaker 5: the Bills against the Patriots if that would be interesting
Speaker 5: to you.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Please.
Speaker 5: So this is the win, Josh Allen the MVP game. Right,
Speaker 5: there's talk this week because Lamar Jackson threw five touchdowns
Speaker 5: against the Giants that maybe he should be MVP. And
Speaker 5: you saw the MVP odds shrink a little bit. The
Speaker 5: Bills tend to blow these teams out anyways. Right, they
Speaker 5: are a team that has a winning record as big
Speaker 5: favorites in these games in the division, outside the division
Speaker 5: at home, they tend they don't play down to the
Speaker 5: level of the competition. Their offense can do whatever it
Speaker 5: wants against the Patriots. If the Patriots are down early,
Speaker 5: their record against the spread it's like seven and twenty
Speaker 5: one the past two years, like they are a terrible team.
Speaker 5: They cannot recover. So if the Bills get out to
Speaker 5: lead early, which they tend to do, it's a great spot.
Speaker 5: The one concern is, you know, the Bill's secondary has
Speaker 5: a lot of injuries, but there's really no concerns about
Speaker 5: the Patriots offense. They got Drake may who's slinging it
Speaker 5: and trying his best. But right now Gerrod Mayo was
Speaker 5: throwing Alex Van Pelt under the bus about their offense.
Speaker 2: There's just a lot of turmoil there.
Speaker 5: So the wise guys, if they're betting a big favorite,
Speaker 5: they're more inclined to bet the Bills than the Packers.
Speaker 1: All Right, I want to talk some college football now,
Speaker 1: because I do think in Indiana, Notre Dame and a
Speaker 1: lot of its weather, I think it's going to be
Speaker 1: pretty close. I think Notre Dame is a great run team.
Speaker 1: Indiana is a kind of a peculiar unique run defense.
Speaker 1: I think really good coaches with time can employ, you know,
Speaker 1: competitive strategies. We know that Ohio State in Columbus on
Speaker 1: a nice day to play football is better significantly. Notre
Speaker 1: Dame doesn't have Ohio State's talent, and I also think
Speaker 1: Indiana now has extra time to prepare. I think Notre
Speaker 1: Dame has a ceiling offensively, whereas Ohio State doesn't. They
Speaker 1: just played down to their competition. Notre Dame has a ceiling,
Speaker 1: and I think Indiana is going to So I really
Speaker 1: like Indiana plus seven. How do the wise guys view it?
Speaker 5: Yeah, look the numbers come down because wise guys are
Speaker 5: betting Indiana and Indiana's look been a covering machine this year. Yes,
Speaker 5: obviously that Ohio State game was the biggest challenge. They
Speaker 5: also didn't cover against Michigan, but that was at a
Speaker 5: time when Michigan was starting to get better. And the
Speaker 5: next week they went on and they beat Ohio State.
Speaker 5: So that was a much more physical game. Ohio State
Speaker 5: Indiana had some bad plays and they were outclassed, and
Speaker 5: you could see the talent difference.
Speaker 2: I'm with you. The wise guys are with you, and
Speaker 2: the way.
Speaker 5: Indiana matches up a little bit better with Notre Dame
Speaker 5: and the time and look, you can't help but listen
Speaker 5: to Kurt Signetti and know that he's playing this game
Speaker 5: and has got his players playing this game with a
Speaker 5: huge chip on their shoulder.
Speaker 2: And we've talked about this.
Speaker 5: One of the reasons Indiana won this year and why
Speaker 5: it was able to achieve when other teams that are
Speaker 5: leaning into the portal weren't able to achieve, is because
Speaker 5: they brought in grown up college football players. They didn't
Speaker 5: bring in five star recruits who are going to be
Speaker 5: there for a year and go to the NFL. They
Speaker 5: brought in guys who are just really good at college football.
Speaker 5: And this is a great college football game. And there
Speaker 5: is a nuanced difference when I say a college football
Speaker 5: game here, that's the style of game this is gonna be.
Speaker 5: It's going to be physical, it's going to be about execution,
Speaker 5: it's going to be about not necessarily the best athletes,
Speaker 5: but the people who do their jobs the best.
Speaker 2: So I love this game for Indiana.
Speaker 1: I like the under on Clemson Texas, mostly not because
Speaker 1: Texas is going to score a ton. I don't think
Speaker 1: Clemson can score much on Texas. I'm gonna take Texas
Speaker 1: minus twelve. I really feel it has a chance to
Speaker 1: be thirty to ten. I think the Texas defense is sensational,
Speaker 1: and I think the Clemson offense it's almost like that
Speaker 1: SMU game felt like their bowl game. I think both
Speaker 1: SMU and Clemson are going to get totally outclassed in
Speaker 1: their bowl games. I like the under, but I'm gonna
Speaker 1: take Texas minus twelve. I think this. Remember Clemson doesn't
Speaker 1: go to the transfer portal. They have holes. Yeah, Texas
Speaker 1: out recruits them and goes to the transfer portal. And
Speaker 1: also Texas's offense over the last three weeks, I don't
Speaker 1: think they'll pause. If quin your struggles, I think they'll
Speaker 1: go to Arts Manning. I don't think they'll pause going forward.
Speaker 1: I like Texas to roll here sharper square.
Speaker 5: Totally sharp, Like if you're looking I'm looking in the
Speaker 5: Action app right now. It's just checking it out and
Speaker 5: you can see in the app, you can see the
Speaker 5: betting tickets and you can see the money percentages on
Speaker 5: each side, and betting tickets is usually an indication of
Speaker 5: the public. That's the squares who are betting ten dollars
Speaker 5: twenty dollars, and there's a lot of volume of tickets.
Speaker 5: Money usually represents where the wise guys are. So the
Speaker 5: tickets right now are on Clemson, the money is on Texas.
Speaker 5: And I agree with you, and the wise guys agree
Speaker 5: with you. That defense they have is us fierce, Like
Speaker 5: they did a job on Georgia. And if Texas's offense
Speaker 5: could execute a little bit better, then we wouldn't be
Speaker 5: having this conversation about who's the who is the SEC
Speaker 5: champion would have been Texas. So, like, that defense is
Speaker 5: so freaking good and it's a veteran defense. Again, we're
Speaker 5: talking about like guys who've been playing college football for
Speaker 5: a while, and I think that's an advantage here.
Speaker 1: So the game, I'm going to ask you to handicap.
Speaker 1: I don't get the line. So the line is telling
Speaker 1: me Ohio State's gonna win because it hasn't moved much.
Speaker 1: So Tennessee's defensive line is significantly better than Ohio State's
Speaker 1: offensive line, meaning Ohio State's gonna have to throw and
Speaker 1: it may only be fifteen degrees. But this line is
Speaker 1: telling me that out after that Michigan loss, Ohio State
Speaker 1: is pissed and Ryan Day's jobs on the line, and
Speaker 1: Josh Heipels isn't and it's in Columbus and it is
Speaker 1: a warm weather SEC team, So the line is telling
Speaker 1: me that Ohio State's gonna win this comfortably. That's what
Speaker 1: it's telling me. Otherwise, when it came out seven and
Speaker 1: a half, the Sharps would have jumped all over this.
Speaker 1: I mean, Tennessee's the best rushing team in the SEC
Speaker 1: going into cold weather. It just screams to you, low scoring,
Speaker 1: take the points. But the line's not moving, and that
Speaker 1: tells me the Sharps like Ohio State, do they?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, look, it's settled in where it's at, right,
Speaker 5: and that is because it's been It's kind of the
Speaker 5: advantages is not for Tennessee because of some of these
Speaker 5: situations that you just talked about, And there is some
Speaker 5: feeling that this is such a desperate spot for Ryan Day.
Speaker 5: It's been seven and a half almost since it opened.
Speaker 5: It was at six and a half for about thirty seconds. Wise,
Speaker 5: guys took the six and a half. They bet Tennessee
Speaker 5: at six and a half, right, but there was so
Speaker 5: much other sentiment coming in on Ohio State that it
Speaker 5: moved up.
Speaker 2: So Ryan Day is in a spot. And we've talked
Speaker 2: about this.
Speaker 5: There was a story in the Wall Street Journal today
Speaker 5: about Ohio State fans people calling in to local radio
Speaker 5: about Max Crosby, who know the Lions, the Raiders defensive
Speaker 5: lineman who's out for the year. On his podcast, he's
Speaker 5: a massive Ohio State fan, talking about how he wants
Speaker 5: the team to lose so they get rid of Ryan Day.
Speaker 5: That is a weird thing to be talking about when
Speaker 5: you've got a coach who has won as much as
Speaker 5: he has. But I think you and I agree every
Speaker 5: game for him is going to be a must win game.
Speaker 5: And unless they win the championship or they get there
Speaker 5: and they are so dominant, and he puts himself in
Speaker 5: a position even if they lose, it's a way to
Speaker 5: rebuild the goodwill. It's a Michigan or bust program. And
Speaker 5: he hasn't beaten them, and they haven't gotten over it,
Speaker 5: you know.
Speaker 1: I think sometimes one of the things I love about
Speaker 1: sports is when there's cultural changes. I like to be
Speaker 1: I like to predict what they are. I love the
Speaker 1: theories and my systems on like what's changing. So something's
Speaker 1: happening in college football, and college football fans don't yet
Speaker 1: know it. So in the NFL, it's almost understood that
Speaker 1: you've got to give a staff a couple of years, right, Like,
Speaker 1: there's just it's just really hard. The margins are thin. Well,
Speaker 1: I think the Ohio States and the Georgia's and the
Speaker 1: Texas fans. You know, you've always been able to line
Speaker 1: up and just beat teams. And one of the reasons
Speaker 1: is over a long season is your backups were as
Speaker 1: good as their starters. And football's regulated the level levels
Speaker 1: of violence. So there's college and pro. There's injuries, but
Speaker 1: the transfer portal and NIL has eliminated depth at the
Speaker 1: blue bloods Georgia, Texas, Clemson. So when you do suffer
Speaker 1: injuries and the season is now longer than ever, your
Speaker 1: backups are produced starters, that's all they are. And so
Speaker 1: these Ohio States and these big Notre Dame, these big
Speaker 1: traditional powers as the season goes on, I mean, look
Speaker 1: at look at our twelve team playoff. Arizona States in IT,
Speaker 1: SMUs in IT, Boise States in IT, like, and these
Speaker 1: these are live dogs like and so I don't think
Speaker 1: quite college football fans understand not only are players getting
Speaker 1: paid that it looks more like pro football, but your
Speaker 1: backup stink just like pro football. Detroit's defense now has
Speaker 1: six backups. It's terrible. A month ago it was excellent.
Speaker 1: And so what and what what creates that the salary cap?
Speaker 1: You have bad backups in the NFL? Nobody has depth
Speaker 1: in the NFL. You either like Philadelphia's got great front
Speaker 1: line starters. AJ Brown's out. It's not the same offense. Right,
Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley's out, it's not the same offense. We've almost
Speaker 1: understood that in pro football you need your starters. And
Speaker 1: when you get injury plagged Buffalo Detroit's defense, you're like,
Speaker 1: what the hell's going on? Well, everybody knows you don't
Speaker 1: have good college That was never the point. Top ten
Speaker 1: teams just had better backups. I mean, eighty five scholarships
Speaker 1: allows you to have four pro offensive tackles. If you're
Speaker 1: Ohio State, now they have two. One gets hurt, you
Speaker 1: move a guard to left tackle. They're all lion stakes.
Speaker 1: It's Iowa at best.
Speaker 5: So you're you're totally right, that's an on the field problem,
Speaker 5: but culturally for fandom, yeah, the beauty of college football,
Speaker 5: it's always been Michigan Ohio State rivalry weekend. You know,
Speaker 5: Alabama Tennessee or Alabama Auburn. You know these games they
Speaker 5: had so much much meaning because there was a lot
Speaker 5: on the line.
Speaker 2: You couldn't lose that game.
Speaker 5: I think what Ohio State is struggling with and what
Speaker 5: a lot of schools will struggle with in the future,
Speaker 5: is you focus so much on that one rivalry game
Speaker 5: and that's all you care about. Because college football has
Speaker 5: always been so provincial. Now it's a national game. The
Speaker 5: SEC is spread out all over, The Big Ten is
Speaker 5: literally nationwide. These are the only two conferences that really
Speaker 5: kind of matter. And so the provincial, local rivalries that
Speaker 5: college fan bases have built their mindset on, have built
Speaker 5: their self worth on, have built their fandom on. They
Speaker 5: need to move on from those really meaning anything because
Speaker 5: they kind of don't. If Io State loses to Michigan
Speaker 5: for the next ten years, but they win the national
Speaker 5: title in five of those years, is that going to
Speaker 5: be better or worse? As a fan Like, they need
Speaker 5: to come to grips with a new reality of what
Speaker 5: these rivalry games mean in terms of the broader picture,
Speaker 5: because they used to mean everything. It wasn't just about
Speaker 5: beating Michigan. It was about beating Michigan and what it
Speaker 5: meant for winning the Big Ten and going to the
Speaker 5: Rose Bowl, or what it meant for winning the Big
Speaker 5: Ten and then being in the College Football Playoff or
Speaker 5: winning the BCS and getting a better rating.
Speaker 2: Those things don't matter anymore.
Speaker 5: So the rivalries and the expectations for what these rivalries
Speaker 5: mean need to be adjusted. I also think it's just
Speaker 5: going to diminish the value of those games for fans.
Speaker 5: My kid, he's going to be in college next year.
Speaker 5: He's gotten into Indiana, he got into Penn State, wherever
Speaker 5: he decides to go. Are the rivalries for those schools
Speaker 5: going to mean as much to him twenty years from
Speaker 5: now as they do to me and my friends who
Speaker 5: also went to Indiana?
Speaker 2: Probably not.
Speaker 1: Do you have an NFL bet this weekend that you
Speaker 1: would label your favorite.
Speaker 5: H Well, look, I'm middle Kansas City, So I bet
Speaker 5: Kansas City plus two and a half on Sunday night
Speaker 5: and then and you mean you know it was plus
Speaker 5: two and a half, like on Monday morning. I'm sorry
Speaker 5: when the news about what was happening with Holmes was
Speaker 5: still unclear. The Chiefs were two and a half point underdogs,
Speaker 5: so I bet him two and a half, and then
Speaker 5: when it became clear that he was going to be playing.
Speaker 5: This was yesterday afternoon, the game got up to three
Speaker 5: and a half. I bet the Texans at plus three
Speaker 5: and a half. So the majority of my money is
Speaker 5: trying to get that middle right. But I also bet
Speaker 5: the Jets three and a half. That's one that I like.
Speaker 5: I really like the Steelers at six and a half.
Speaker 5: So if I like, I'll put in my five favorite picks.
Speaker 5: The Steelers will be in there. The Jets will definitely
Speaker 5: be in there. Dallas I bet at four and a half.
Speaker 5: I like Dallas a lot against Tampa. I think there's
Speaker 5: a lot of inflation this week, and I think that's
Speaker 5: one of the bigger games where Dallas has been playing better.
Speaker 5: Like the last three weeks, last four weeks, that Cincinnati
Speaker 5: game kind of looks like a fluke, right. They lost
Speaker 5: that game, They've won the three other games. Micah Parsons
Speaker 5: has seven and a half sacks since he's back. Deron
Speaker 5: bland Is back in the secondary. That defense is getting
Speaker 5: a lot better. Cooper Rush at Home Controlled Environment. Tampa
Speaker 5: Bay just put up forty on the chargers that inflated
Speaker 5: that line a little bit so. Dallas is another one
Speaker 5: that I'm un paying attention to.
Speaker 1: Chad Millman Sharper Square, I love it, buddy.
Speaker 2: Great to chat with your buddy.
Speaker 4: The volume