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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 1: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: All right, good morning, and welcome to Breaking Points.

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Speaker 4: We had some tech issues in the studio this morning,

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Speaker 4: so we're probably going to abloviate a little bit less,

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Speaker 4: a little bit more news to try to get through.

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Speaker 4: The entire show won't be a two and a half

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Speaker 4: hour behemoth that lands in your inbox.

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Speaker 5: Yeah you say that now. At the beginning, it will

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Speaker 5: saying we're going to push three hours or something.

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Speaker 4: And we're close to two million subscribers on the YouTube

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Speaker 4: platform if that's where you watch this show. If so,

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Speaker 4: if you watch it there and you haven't yet subscribed,

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Speaker 4: go ahead and do that.

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Speaker 3: Maybe do you get a second place? Is that how

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Speaker 3: that works?

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Speaker 5: I don't know. It might be five million, it might

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Speaker 5: be one and then five if I'm remembering the threshold correct.

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Speaker 3: We could make our own. There are plaque shops.

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Speaker 5: We should make our like a bowling trophy.

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Speaker 4: And of course, while you still have money, because Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump is doing everything he can to crash the global

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Speaker 4: economy in a way that it hasn't been probably since

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Speaker 4: two thousand and seven and eight before he does that,

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Speaker 4: while you still have money, make sure you become a

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Speaker 4: premium subscriber to brakpoints.

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Speaker 3: Don't do the monthly thing.

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Speaker 4: Do the all at once, because you're not going to

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Speaker 4: be able to afford the monthly pretty soon.

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Speaker 5: I mean you're losing money if you don't go all

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Speaker 5: right now, go all in right now. Maybe literally, big show.

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Speaker 4: If you need a refund now, welcome. We probably won't

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Speaker 4: have any money either.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, So actually maybe you should just do it now,

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Speaker 5: so big show. Donald Trump announced last night he is

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Speaker 5: giving a speech and addressed to the nation with updates

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Speaker 5: about the Iran war this evening. Well we all wait

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Speaker 5: for on just the edge of our seats Ryan for

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Speaker 5: that to happen, many many updates to go through. So

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Speaker 5: Trump was taking questions yesterday that gave us some indication

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Speaker 5: to the extent as possible of where his head might

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Speaker 5: be out. We have quotes and videos from that to

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Speaker 5: go through. Also an announcement from Iran that they are

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Speaker 5: now going to target major US tech companies in the

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Speaker 5: Gulf region. Already there are a lot of major tech

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Speaker 5: companies who also double as defense contractors, not really double

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Speaker 5: as defense contractors, a huge source of their business. We're

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Speaker 5: going to get into this and just a moment, there's

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Speaker 5: a preview of it up on your screen right now.

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Speaker 5: So the uh, the escalation trap. Actually, speaking of the

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Speaker 5: escalation trap, we're going to have Robert pape Back on

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Speaker 5: the show. But that gives you some sense of how

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Speaker 5: quickly the escalation trap is escalating, just looking at all

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Speaker 5: of those company logos on the screen. So we will

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Speaker 5: have pape Back on to go through updates and understand

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Speaker 5: where they fit into his paradigm of how this war

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Speaker 5: is going to is likely to unfold. RNT some economic updates,

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Speaker 5: big big layoffs at Oracle yesterday.

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Speaker 4: Yep, and nobody can get helium. Asia and Europe are

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Speaker 4: shutting down as if it's COVID again, and the UK

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Speaker 4: says they have one more tanker of jet fuel coming

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Speaker 4: and after that they're out. That should be fine for them.

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Speaker 4: It's not like they have a tunnel. They can get

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Speaker 4: to Paris, right, they don't have to fly.

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Speaker 5: No, there's nothing to worry about.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they'll be fine.

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Speaker 5: Everything's in good shape, all according to plan.

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Speaker 3: Right.

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Speaker 5: And you're also going to bring us some updates about

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Speaker 5: a little guy in Cuba.

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Speaker 4: Yes, so a week and a half ago we were

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Speaker 4: in Cuba with and we tore a hospital with Liza

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Speaker 4: Leva Fernandez, a Cuban journalist, and Brace Belden, American journalists

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Speaker 4: and co host of the True noonn podcast. We're going

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Speaker 4: to have both of them on today. Absolutely like fascinating story.

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Speaker 4: A Russian oil tanker broke Trump's oil blockade and is

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Speaker 4: now unloading it's fossil cargo at the port of Havana,

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Speaker 4: and we'll talk about what that means and what it

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Speaker 4: means for Cuba and for the healthcare system there.

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Speaker 5: And one really compelling story of.

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Speaker 4: Going to be a compelling You're gonna I don't want

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Speaker 4: to don't want to spoil it, but it's good stuff.

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Speaker 5: It'll be a little bit of heartwarming content, which we

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Speaker 5: don't normally do, and indeed, the next block will be

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Speaker 5: anything but heartwarming. We're going to cover the updates from

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Speaker 5: former DHS Secretary Christy Nome, who we now know was

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Speaker 5: vulnerable to an enormous potential blackmail for that. We're going

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Speaker 5: to have updates on this awful, sad, kind of funny

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Speaker 5: at the same time story about Christi Nom's husband Brian

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Speaker 5: being high cross dresser.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, she's basically trying to mimic the FBI directory warmer.

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Speaker 6: I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I'm not saying anything about cash the old one Hoover.

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Speaker 5: Yes, And one underdiscussed element of this is probably also

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Speaker 5: how it seems to have unraveled in the media. Looks

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Speaker 5: like there was an interesting tip coming from a person

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Speaker 5: perhaps aggrieved by the innustrition's immigration policy. So we will

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Speaker 5: have breakdowns on that for everyone and Bob behar run

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Speaker 5: And this was a great interview we did yesterday. Fascinating interview.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, interesting, kind of a legendary CIA case officer turned author.

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Speaker 3: Bob Bear, it's going to be on the show.

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Speaker 4: He's you can Wikipedia, and he's got quite quite an

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Speaker 4: incredible life story, including they tried to prosecute him for

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Speaker 4: planning to assassinate Sodom Hussein and his defense was I

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Speaker 4: was doing it as part of my day job for

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Speaker 4: the CIA, and they're like, oh, okay, you're good.

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Speaker 5: Then yeah it Listen, you can't prosecute someone for doing

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Speaker 5: their job.

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Speaker 4: I mean you probably should maybe, but we're not going

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Speaker 4: to put it that way.

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Speaker 5: Well remightder. We are on the cuspier of two millions,

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Speaker 5: so go ahead be that two millionth subscriber will appreciate it.

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Speaker 5: It helps us support our independent journalism that we do here,

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Speaker 5: which we of course think is very important in times

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Speaker 5: like the is where the legacy media is failing you

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Speaker 5: just about every single day. So appreciate it. Now, let's

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Speaker 5: get onto the show and update. Just as we started

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Speaker 5: filming this morning, Ryan, which is a zero, we can

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Speaker 5: put this up on the screen. Reports now that Iran

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Speaker 5: has struck Amazon and servers hosting Amazon Web services in Bahrain,

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Speaker 5: literally just breaking this morning.

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Speaker 3: Yes.

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Speaker 4: So, Bahrain of course is plays host to the fifth

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Speaker 4: Fleet and so they are the only country, the only

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Speaker 4: golf country that hasn't even tried to deny that they

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Speaker 4: are allowing the United States to launch operations against Iran

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Speaker 4: from there.

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Speaker 3: They have a.

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Speaker 4: Population that is pretty generally in general supportive of Iran,

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Speaker 4: but they are that population is occupied by the current dictatorship.

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Speaker 4: All of our allies there basically dictators And so if

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Speaker 4: you put up a one here. Yesterday, the IRGC said,

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Speaker 4: if there are future assassinations of Iranian officials, these are

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Speaker 4: the tech companies that we consider to be involved in

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Speaker 4: these assassination programs and which we will then attack directly.

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Speaker 4: And we were warning all of the employees in the

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Speaker 4: region that they need to work from home if you're

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Speaker 4: engaged in assassination plots.

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Speaker 3: Now, you know, as Amazon is not on there.

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Speaker 4: They had previously said that Amazon was a legitimate target

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Speaker 4: because of its involvement with these assassination programs. And also

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Speaker 4: they don't always announce every single one. Sometimes they'll announce

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Speaker 4: these lists, lists, and then they'll go and hit those.

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Speaker 3: But I don't know.

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Speaker 4: Well, Trump was asked about this and then we can

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Speaker 4: talk about it. So in the Oval office, Trump was

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Speaker 4: asked by a journalist, what do you think about the

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Speaker 4: fact that Iran is now saying it's going to respond

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Speaker 4: to assassinations.

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Speaker 3: I don't know.

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Speaker 4: Did they even bring up the assassinations in the Western press.

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Speaker 4: You kind of often leave out the for the adversarial action.

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Speaker 4: It's just kind of comes out of nowhere. Let's let's see,

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Speaker 4: I don't I don't actually remember. Let's roll a one

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Speaker 4: B radiant government threatened a bunch of US companies today

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Speaker 4: in the region, including Google, Apple with.

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Speaker 7: What what are they threatening them with? PB guns? Or

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Speaker 7: they don't how much you left to threaten? My question

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Speaker 7: for you is are you I don't know? I mean,

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Speaker 7: what are they you made to say? What are they

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Speaker 7: threatening them with? I don't know? Tell me how did

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Speaker 7: they threaten them?

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Speaker 8: Well, I know they threaten them, sir?

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Speaker 7: What does that mean? He said something? Next?

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Speaker 9: Yeah, he's the government touched with these companies.

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Speaker 7: You're helping to backstop them. You don't even know what

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Speaker 7: the threat was. What was the threat? I haven't heard of.

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Speaker 7: What was the threat? Did they say they're going to

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Speaker 7: blow them up? They're going to hit them? They're not,

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Speaker 7: you know what they're not gonna do. They're not going

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Speaker 7: to hit them with a nuclear weapon. No, Ron's age.

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Speaker 7: You see issues warning that they will target.

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Speaker 9: Eighteen US technology companies. If the US continues targeted assassinations.

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Speaker 5: Of ronny leaders, take getting money, go first this company.

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Speaker 6: Maybe most of those people are dead already. When negotiating

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Speaker 6: with them right now, they've been again.

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Speaker 7: We have had regime change.

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Speaker 6: No regime change was not one of the things I

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Speaker 6: had as a goal. I had one goal. They will

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Speaker 6: have no nuclear weapon, and that goal has been attained.

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Speaker 6: They will not have nuclear weapons. When we feel that

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Speaker 6: they are for a long period of time put into

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Speaker 6: the Stone ages and they won't be able to come

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Speaker 6: up with a nuclear weapon, then we'll leave. Whether we

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Speaker 6: have a deal or not, it's irrelevant. We'll be leaving

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Speaker 6: very soon. And if France or some other country wants

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Speaker 6: to get oil or gas, they'll go up through the

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Speaker 6: Strait and Hormost straight. They'll go right up there and

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Speaker 6: they'll be able to fend for themselves. I think it'll

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Speaker 6: be very safe, actually, But we have nothing to do

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Speaker 6: with that. What happens is the Strait, we're not going

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Speaker 6: to have anything to do with because these countries, China,

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Speaker 6: China will go up and they'll fuel up their beautiful

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Speaker 6: ships and they'll leave and they'll take care of themselves.

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Speaker 7: There's no reason for us to do it.

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Speaker 4: And I don't mean to pick on that particular reporter, Emily,

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Speaker 4: but it is actually a perfect example of the way

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Speaker 4: that the American public ends up being kind of misinformed

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Speaker 4: about the nature of our adversaries. So often their actions

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Speaker 4: are presented without context, and in this case, it's just

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Speaker 4: they're threatening to bomb these tech companies.

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Speaker 3: Why why are they? Why are they doing it?

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Speaker 4: They're doing it because they say, you should stop assassinating

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Speaker 4: our officials, stop assessing our officials. We won't do this

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Speaker 4: because Trump had to play this like such a dummy,

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Speaker 4: I don't understand how these things work.

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Speaker 3: Hard.

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Speaker 4: Then the second reporter like, just read directly from the

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Speaker 4: ier GC, so if you've watched the whole thing, you

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Speaker 4: do get the context that they're talking about this set.

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Speaker 4: And then he's like, well, how are they How are

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Speaker 4: they going to tell you?

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Speaker 3: I can't imagine.

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Speaker 4: I don't know, I'm not a military expert, but probably

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Speaker 4: by bombing them. And then within an hours they bombed

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Speaker 4: Amazon in Bahrain.

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Speaker 5: Trump was really chippy in that question where he gets asked, eventually,

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Speaker 5: are you worried about it? No, which is not at

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Speaker 5: all what you take from the tone of that exchange

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Speaker 5: about whether or not he's worried, actually.

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Speaker 3: Could he's not worried?

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Speaker 6: Right?

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Speaker 5: Could we put a one backup on the screen, because

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Speaker 5: I want to just go through a little bit with

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Speaker 5: these these logos. So if you're listening to this, it's

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Speaker 5: some companies that you might not expect meta you probably

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Speaker 5: definitely expect Nvidio, Oracle, Palenteer, Google, Boeing, Microsoft, IBM, JP Morgan. Interestingly,

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Speaker 5: I mean it's not surprising, but JP Morgan does have

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Speaker 5: defense contracts HP. If people don't know about HP in

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Speaker 5: the Pentagon, that's a long standing relationship Apple. I mean,

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Speaker 5: just some of the most major American companies that I

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Speaker 5: don't know, right, And I think people don't realize how

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Speaker 5: involved some of these companies that you don't ever think

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Speaker 5: of as Pentagon contractors are. And all that is just

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Speaker 5: to say, when you go to war, you are putting

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Speaker 5: so much more on the line. It's not just another

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Speaker 5: step in your foreign policy on paper, it's actually like

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Speaker 5: a whole of society, a whole of government and private

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Speaker 5: sector effort. And that's where it seemed like a lot

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Speaker 5: of people were just kind of breezing over this news yesterday,

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Speaker 5: and here we wake up to a strike on Amazon

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Speaker 5: and Bahrain.

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Speaker 4: And since these assassinations don't actually strategically work anyway, maybe

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Speaker 4: we should just like stop doing them.

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Speaker 5: Well, And that's the other thing that we kind of

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Speaker 5: breezed over is the not even the ethics isn't the

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Speaker 5: right word, because I wouldn't expect the media to ever

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Speaker 5: discuss the ethics of an assassination, but even the legality

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Speaker 5: and the legitimacy of that is an act of war.

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Speaker 5: Military experts have serious debates about that. It's not actually

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Speaker 5: just a give and so to your point about including

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Speaker 5: the context and the question, it's it's essential to understanding

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Speaker 5: what's happening right now.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and we talked to we'll talk to Bob Baar

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Speaker 4: about this later, CIA case officer who has been involved

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Speaker 4: in planning assassinations and who was written about assassinations, and

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Speaker 4: he too thinks that it's counter just counter productive. Setting

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Speaker 4: aside the morality of just kind of killing people, it's

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Speaker 4: like also trying to imagine from our perspective, let's say

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Speaker 4: they went out and they killed hegseeth like that doesn't

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Speaker 4: actually stop the Pentagon from operating, right, And what what

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Speaker 4: a lot of Iranians have said is that some of

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Speaker 4: the most incompetent people had ridden to the top, had

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Speaker 4: risen to the top and needed to be fired, but

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Speaker 4: couldn't be fired, and so then Israel killed them and

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Speaker 4: they're replaced by more competent people. Like that's that's a

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Speaker 4: that's a thing, like it is certainly possible that if

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Speaker 4: Iran did that to our Pentagon and people rose up

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Speaker 4: from the ranks, Pentagon.

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Speaker 3: Could be more efficient. Might might be?

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Speaker 4: Might there's no guarantee that you've made it worse by

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Speaker 4: just in cold blood murdering people.

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Speaker 5: Or that you've made your own well to your point,

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Speaker 5: does it make Iran weaker? Or does it make Iran

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Speaker 5: more chaotic and.

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Speaker 3: More of a risk for your Pentagon? Would be like

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Speaker 3: hag seth, what's the compromise?

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Speaker 5: Oh my gosh, So speaking of our Pentagon, let's go

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Speaker 5: ahead and put this next element up on the screen.

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Speaker 5: We're seeing here the Nimitz class US Navy aircraft carry

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Speaker 5: USS George H. W. Bush has departed from Norfolk, Virginia

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Speaker 5: as of yesterday on a scheduled deployment. The ship and

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Speaker 5: IT strike group are likely en route to relieve the

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Speaker 5: USS Gerald R Ford Carrier strike group in Europe. Really,

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Speaker 5: I was going to say striking, but that would be

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Speaker 5: like I didn't mean it as a pun, but striking.

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Speaker 4: To see this right, everybody check your lint traps, you

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Speaker 4: know the last one. Does anybody out there believe the

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Speaker 4: story that it was really just ant like a fire

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Speaker 4: or whatever that just randomly sparked on the gerald Ford

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Speaker 4: on the jailed Ford that has it now out of

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Speaker 4: commission for like ever. The Ryan Grimm theory is that

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Speaker 4: they either sabotage or they got struck and aren't admitting it.

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Speaker 5: Or your theory is also that they really don't want

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Speaker 5: to be there.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well sabotaging, they definitely don't want to be there.

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Speaker 5: But then the sabotage the ship by a laundry, which

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Speaker 5: is one way to do it. We can put the

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Speaker 5: next element up on the screen. This is a drop

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Speaker 5: site post us Embasis to coordinate with Pentagon Psyopsy in

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Speaker 5: it and Elon Musk. We should also mention that when

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Speaker 5: we were listing out those big tech companies before, Tesla

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Speaker 5: was one of them. Again not surprising, but if Elon

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Speaker 5: Musk were still in our government in the same capacity,

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Speaker 5: that he was at this exact time last year. Ryan,

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Speaker 5: I think what many people who are following the story

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Speaker 5: closely understood, which is that he's so deeply intertwined at

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Speaker 5: almost every layer of our national security actually our government overall,

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Speaker 5: but especially the national security apparatus. This post from drop

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Speaker 5: site makes that very clear. It's about a guardian story,

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Speaker 5: but man, what might elon Musk's motivations and all of

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Speaker 5: this hubbooth?

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Speaker 4: And what's what's funniest about this whole thing is that

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Speaker 4: this is the Pentagon basically super worked up that they

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Speaker 4: keep getting community notes on Twitter on their posts because

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Speaker 4: they live on Twitter, like they're still there, and they

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Speaker 4: hate it when people successfully community note one of their posts.

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Speaker 3: And so this is an effort to.

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Speaker 4: Deploy the resources and the manpower of the Pentagon to

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Speaker 4: fight back against community notes on Twitter. And they said

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Speaker 4: they're going to and they're gonna use kind of credible

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Speaker 4: local allies too. It's because it's kind of you know,

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Speaker 4: I think it's hard for them when they're just rolling

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Speaker 4: out their own stooges and flunkeys to sound credible. So

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Speaker 4: they're like, we got to find some more credible voices,

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Speaker 4: and we got to downvote these community notes. So the

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Speaker 4: war effort is going very solidly.

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Speaker 5: Starlink is not a non factor in this war. Tesla

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Speaker 5: is now one of the companies that the IRGC has

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Speaker 5: said that it's targeting. And so the flow of information

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Speaker 5: domestically is not nothing extremely significant. And so this is

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Speaker 5: the State Department. This is a cable from the State Department.

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Speaker 5: I'm reading from the Guardian report here. Quote signed by

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Speaker 5: the Secretary of State Mark Arubio on Monday and obtained

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Speaker 5: by the Guardian also suggests embassies and consulates work alongside

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Speaker 5: the US military's Psychological Operations Unit to address the problem

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Speaker 5: rynd's laughing of rampant disinformation. It lays out a sweeping

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Speaker 5: set of instructions for how embassy staff should push back

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Speaker 5: against what it describes as coordinated foreign efforts to undermine

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Speaker 5: American interests abroad.

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Speaker 3: The down voting will continue until morale improves. Yes, excellent, perfect.

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Speaker 4: So Pete Haigsath was asked, so why are we doing

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Speaker 4: this and how long are we going to do it for?

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Speaker 4: And if you want to feel comforted before Trump comforts

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Speaker 4: us again this evening at nine pm, let's.

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Speaker 3: Throw a little bit of our war Secretary, here.

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Speaker 10: Out a question I'm going to answer, or the President

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Speaker 10: has said definitively, we have our own goals and guidance

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Speaker 10: and things were military objectives that we're moving toward and

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Speaker 10: things that we look at. And as he's articulated, you know,

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Speaker 10: he said four to six weeks, six to eight weeks, three,

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Speaker 10: It could be any any particular number, but we would

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Speaker 10: never reveal precisely what it is because our goal is

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Speaker 10: to finish those objectives and we're well on our way.

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Speaker 4: Excellent, Okay, mister War Secretary. What about opening the Strait

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Speaker 4: of Hormos?

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Speaker 2: Is opening the straight an essential objective to Operation Epic Fury?

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Speaker 5: Or is that the job of those other countries and.

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Speaker 10: Our core objectives from this podium from day one, from me,

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Speaker 10: from the Chairman, from the President, from the Vice President,

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Speaker 10: from Secretary of Rubio and others have been clear, defense,

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Speaker 10: missile production and missile programs, so their entire missile program,

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Speaker 10: defense industrial base and production, ability to build, and navy

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Speaker 10: and power projection, so those of and then of course

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Speaker 10: rapping it all is Aron's never gonna have a nuclear

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Speaker 10: So those have been very clear. Defeating the Navy's a

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Speaker 10: core part of ensuring they can't project that kind of power.

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Speaker 10: But ultimately, I think the President's truth this morning lays

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Speaker 10: that out very well. That this strait of Horrmon's issue,

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Speaker 10: which we've set the conditions for success and we will

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Speaker 10: make sure Iran knows that very clearly, is not just

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Speaker 10: the United States of America problem set. We've been willing

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Speaker 10: to lead. President Trump's led the entire time, but it's

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Speaker 10: not just us. So ultimately, I think other countries should

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Speaker 10: pay attention when the President speaks. He's proven that when

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Speaker 10: he speaks, he means something, and he's pointing out you know,

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Speaker 10: might might want to start learning how to fight for yourself.

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Speaker 4: What I love about this guy is that he is

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Speaker 4: the most obvious sees get degrees frat boy that's ever

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Speaker 4: risen to like this level of power, And to.

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Speaker 5: Hear him maybe who's ever risen on camera so much

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Speaker 5: to this level of power.

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Speaker 4: To hear him say we've set the conditions for success,

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Speaker 4: to explain his failure is just so delightful.

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Speaker 3: It's just such an amazing turn.

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Speaker 4: We've did I get a B on the test? No,

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Speaker 4: but I set the conditions for success. I did not succeed,

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Speaker 4: And that is your fault, and if you want to succeed,

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Speaker 4: you should go ahead and succeed. What I did is

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Speaker 4: I set the conditions for success.

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Speaker 5: Yes, but he's also having to explain the conditions his boss,

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Speaker 5: the commander in chief, sets for success that are constantly

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Speaker 5: shifting and impossible to pin down. Likely even if you're

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Speaker 5: his war secretary. I mean, that's a job nobody's going

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Speaker 5: to want. That makes an already impossible job even harder.

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Speaker 5: And it's so embarrassing.

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Speaker 4: When it comes to this straight of her move's issue.

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Speaker 4: We have set the conditions for success. Reminder, on February

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Speaker 4: twenty eighth, when the US launched a surprise attack on Iran,

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Speaker 4: blowing up our negotiations and blowing up a girls school

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Speaker 4: and killing at least one hundred and sixty five little

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Speaker 4: girls and their teachers, the strait of her moves was open.

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Speaker 3: Now it's not, but heg Seth.

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Speaker 4: Has set the conditions for success. Who is going to

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Speaker 4: take us over the top to success none other than

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Speaker 4: the United Arab Emirates.

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Speaker 3: We can put up a seven here.

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Speaker 4: The Amoradis are saying that they want to join in

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Speaker 4: the fight. They have bought a whole bunch of fancy

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Speaker 4: f fifteen's. They've trained up their pilots. They famously have

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Speaker 4: a couple of female fighter pilots which.

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Speaker 3: They used against Isis.

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Speaker 4: It was their big kind of propaganda effort to say, look,

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Speaker 4: you know, look at how progressive and oping forward thinking

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Speaker 4: we are.

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Speaker 5: Not just that they can drive cars, they.

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Speaker 4: Can even drive fighter jets. So they won in they

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Speaker 4: won in on the action. The UAE has been pushing

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Speaker 4: for a strike against Iran. I believe it's a twenty

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Speaker 4: ten or twenty eleven yusuf Allo Taba at the Aspen

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Speaker 4: Institute let slip at the time that he wanted the

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Speaker 4: US to bomb Iran. That was a big scandal at

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Speaker 4: the time, created this rift between him and the golf

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Speaker 4: countries in Iran.

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Speaker 3: Ambassadors were recalled, et cetera. But it has been part

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Speaker 3: of their.

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Speaker 4: Their national security strategy to attack Iran for now going

440
00:22:13,000 --> 00:22:14,679
Speaker 4: on about at least fifteen years.

441
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 3: They finally get what they want.

442
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 4: It's complete catashi for them, probably marks the end of

443
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 4: the era of Dubai as we know it. But now

444
00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 4: and they recognize that, they recognize that if Iran fit

445
00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:31,560
Speaker 4: ends this conflict in control of the Strait of Hormuz.

446
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:33,920
Speaker 4: They're going to just tax the hell out of Dubai.

447
00:22:34,600 --> 00:22:36,399
Speaker 3: And you know, how are they then going to have

448
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:37,080
Speaker 3: indoor skiing?

449
00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:41,959
Speaker 5: Well, you know, I don't. This is where the speech

450
00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:44,480
Speaker 5: that Donald Trump is set to deliver tonight is very

451
00:22:44,480 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 5: interesting because the timing. I'm curious Ryan if you think

452
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,439
Speaker 5: some of it is that Trump is trying to mitigate like,

453
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:53,040
Speaker 5: as you just said, this could be the end of

454
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:55,400
Speaker 5: Dubai as we know it and not applies to not

455
00:22:55,720 --> 00:23:02,000
Speaker 5: just Dubai but other golf states. So what seems possible

456
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:07,640
Speaker 5: is that Trump is trying to mitigate the obvious fallout

457
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:12,920
Speaker 5: that was utterly predictable, but he's trying to kind of

458
00:23:12,920 --> 00:23:15,239
Speaker 5: stench the bleeding by coming up with a way to

459
00:23:15,280 --> 00:23:16,960
Speaker 5: like say the I mean, he's keeps saying the war

460
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:18,920
Speaker 5: is over, but to deliver a formal address to the

461
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 5: nation saying we're done. It's over. Mission accomplished.

462
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:24,080
Speaker 3: We'll see.

463
00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 4: And then because we have a three day weekend, the

464
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 4: markets are closed on Friday, then maybe he launches another

465
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 4: surprise attack. Like it's almost not even worth listening to

466
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:37,679
Speaker 4: the guy, and Robert Pepe is going to talk about that.

467
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:38,919
Speaker 3: I think when we have him on.

468
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:41,760
Speaker 4: Okay, you can listen to him, like if you don't

469
00:23:41,760 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 4: have anything else to do, but do not credit what

470
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 4: he says as meaningful. I think Carolyn Levin had a

471
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 4: great quote yesterday where she said, when the president says something,

472
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:55,080
Speaker 4: it means something, well sense, but it doesn't necessarily mean

473
00:23:55,119 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 4: what he said. Yes, it might mean something, but then

474
00:23:58,280 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 4: you have redefined the word meaning.

475
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 5: Well, this is what he wrote about an art of

476
00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:04,840
Speaker 5: the deal, Like he uses words to negotiate, Like he

477
00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:09,679
Speaker 5: uses meaning to your point, like that's an intentional We

478
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 5: talked about this all the time. It's a happy Liberation

479
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:14,879
Speaker 5: Day anniversary to all who celebrate. We talked about this

480
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 5: all of the time in the wake of Original Liberation

481
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:22,879
Speaker 5: Day last April second, which is it's to some extent

482
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 5: you can understand how in business deals, talking like that

483
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:30,439
Speaker 5: is a tool and an advantage. If it goes on

484
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 5: for a year on tariffs, and then it's going on

485
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:37,399
Speaker 5: for weeks in a war. It's not like you're just

486
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 5: building a new casino. So obviously not like you're just

487
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,320
Speaker 5: building a new casino, and yet it's where we find ourselves.

488
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 4: As a senior Administration official put it to Axios this morning, quote,

489
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 4: this isn't three D chess, it's twelve dimensional. He contradicts

490
00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,920
Speaker 4: himself regularly, so nobody knows what he's thinking.

491
00:24:55,119 --> 00:24:56,200
Speaker 3: Right, it's on purpose.

492
00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 7: Right.

493
00:24:57,840 --> 00:24:59,240
Speaker 3: Well, the world is just.

494
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:03,720
Speaker 4: Kind of moving on and just trying to say, okay,

495
00:25:03,720 --> 00:25:05,240
Speaker 4: you know what we actually we don't know what this

496
00:25:05,280 --> 00:25:07,359
Speaker 4: guy is doing. Yeah, but we got to prepare ourselves

497
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:11,159
Speaker 4: for what is obviously coming, which.

498
00:25:11,040 --> 00:25:12,440
Speaker 3: Again, by the way, streme hardship.

499
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 5: That again, by the way, is very similar to what

500
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:18,480
Speaker 5: certain major companies and countries have bet on with Liberation Day,

501
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:22,120
Speaker 5: and the negotiating principle has been very similar to create

502
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 5: a totally unpredictable environment, so much so that people bet

503
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 5: on the United States. This is like steel manning. The

504
00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 5: way Donald Trump would describe this chaotic if you even

505
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,159
Speaker 5: described it in a way that was coherent. But this

506
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 5: is the Steelman argument behind his threats that are all

507
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:41,480
Speaker 5: over the map, and what we're seeing is the opposite

508
00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:44,360
Speaker 5: of the intended effect, even when you try to understand

509
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 5: those intentions, which is like you nearly skeetty to a wall.

510
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:48,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, that Steelman is still being made.

511
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:52,440
Speaker 4: With foreign steel manufacturing jobs way down over the past year.

512
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 5: The decline is slower than it happened.

513
00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 3: Okay, well there we go. Good for Trump, all right.

514
00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 4: So Keir Starmer, UK Prime Minister and Anthony albani Is

515
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:06,520
Speaker 4: the Australian Prime Minister, are out there freaking everybody out

516
00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:09,879
Speaker 4: because they are absolutely freaked out. Europe is, the Europe

517
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:14,719
Speaker 4: and Asia are basically moving into like redos of COVID

518
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:17,840
Speaker 4: lockdowns at this point when it comes to energy usage, we,

519
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:22,480
Speaker 4: because we're a little bit down the pipeline, haven't quite

520
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,880
Speaker 4: started to experience what they're experiencing now. But let's roll

521
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:28,040
Speaker 4: cure of Starmer just to get a sense of oh

522
00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:29,879
Speaker 4: this is this is getting real.

523
00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,359
Speaker 9: It is now clear that the impact of this war

524
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:38,679
Speaker 9: will affect the future of our country. So today I

525
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:42,440
Speaker 9: want to reassure the British people that no matter how

526
00:26:42,520 --> 00:26:46,119
Speaker 9: fierce this storm, we are well placed to weather it

527
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 9: a that we have a long term plan to emerge

528
00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 9: from it a stronger, a more secure nation. First, let

529
00:26:56,840 --> 00:27:02,199
Speaker 9: me say once again, this is not our war. We

530
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:06,159
Speaker 9: will not be drawn into the conflict that is not

531
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 9: in our national interest. And the most effective way we

532
00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:15,280
Speaker 9: can support the cost of living in Britain is to

533
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 9: push for de escalation in the Middle East and a

534
00:27:18,600 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 9: reopening of the straight up hole moves and.

535
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 4: So that comes after the kind of conservative Prime Minister

536
00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:27,719
Speaker 4: of Italy Maloney said that the US can't use its

537
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 4: basis or fly over for the war effort, and the

538
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 4: left wing government of Spain has said the same. Anthony

539
00:27:32,720 --> 00:27:37,400
Speaker 4: alban Is in Australia also warning his country.

540
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 3: That yeah, things are getting rough. That's all eight ten.

541
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 11: Making sure that we are prepared so that if the

542
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:47,760
Speaker 11: global situation gets worse and our fuel supplies are seriously

543
00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 11: disrupted over the long term, we can coordinate the next

544
00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 11: steps together. Today we cut the fuel excise in half,

545
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 11: cuttying the text on every leader of petrol by twenty

546
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 11: six sense. Those savings have started showing up at your

547
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:07,199
Speaker 11: petrol station for our truck is. We have cut the

548
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:11,000
Speaker 11: heavy vehicle roads us A charge to zero. Both these

549
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 11: measures will be in place for the next three months.

550
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 11: And if you're hitting the road, don't take more fuel

551
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:19,960
Speaker 11: than you need. Just fill up like you normally would

552
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:23,800
Speaker 11: think of others in your community, in the bush and

553
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 11: in critical industries and overcoming weeks, if you can switch

554
00:28:27,800 --> 00:28:30,399
Speaker 11: to catching the train or bus or tram to work,

555
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 11: do so that builds our reserves, and it saves fuel

556
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:37,879
Speaker 11: for people who have no choice but to drive, and

557
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 11: all those shift workers and nurses who do so much

558
00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 11: for our country. The months ahead may not be easy.

559
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:47,360
Speaker 11: I want to be upfront about that.

560
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:50,760
Speaker 3: All right, Emily, So the entire world is rationing.

561
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 5: Fuel now, I don't see what could go wrong.

562
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:58,200
Speaker 3: Doesn't seem great. So there was also a related development which.

563
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 5: Sorry, I just like that effects across of it, needs

564
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:04,040
Speaker 5: me to say that, but that affects the cost absolutely everything.

565
00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,800
Speaker 4: We're and we're moving from the cost of things to

566
00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:09,480
Speaker 4: the existence of things.

567
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 3: This is bleak and again for what.

568
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:19,280
Speaker 4: And this is where I think Israel does not quite

569
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 4: recognize what it's gotten itself into. Because the publics in Australia,

570
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 4: in Asia and South America, in the UK and Europe,

571
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:33,360
Speaker 4: and when it hits US in the United States are

572
00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 4: going to understand that, whether you want to blame Trump

573
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 4: for going along with it or not, Israel wanted this war.

574
00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:45,640
Speaker 4: Israel very clearly and publicly and for decades wanted this war.

575
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 4: They got it. We're all paying for it. So last

576
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:53,840
Speaker 4: night AOC met with the U, met with DSA to

577
00:29:53,920 --> 00:29:56,680
Speaker 4: go over their kind of reindorsement process. It's a very

578
00:29:56,800 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 4: cool democratic process that they have. And what emerge from

579
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 4: it are two significant shifts. One she said she would

580
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 4: in the future always vote against what's known as the

581
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 4: IHRA definition of anti Semitism, which says that any criticism

582
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 4: of criticism of Israel is also then therefore anti Semitic.

583
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 3: And she said, no, I will vote against that. That

584
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 3: should not be enshrined.

585
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 4: She also said, and we can put up a eight

586
00:30:23,360 --> 00:30:28,760
Speaker 4: here that she will no longer will the quote is

587
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 4: she's committed to voting against quote any spending on arms

588
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 4: for Israel, including so called defensive capabilities. And this had

589
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 4: been a flashpoint because for years she had supported whether

590
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 4: or not she had voted for it or not, she's

591
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:47,120
Speaker 4: kind of supported the idea of iron dome and other

592
00:30:48,120 --> 00:30:54,760
Speaker 4: quote unquote defensive weapons for Israel. She has tried relentlessly

593
00:30:54,800 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 4: to chart what she understood to be kind of a

594
00:30:57,480 --> 00:31:01,120
Speaker 4: reasonable middle ground where she could be seen and taken

595
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:04,040
Speaker 4: seriously by all sides and could help to be some

596
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 4: kind of conciliator or you know, bringing people together here

597
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 4: that she would say, you know, innocent Israelis should not

598
00:31:13,680 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 4: be subject to you know, indiscriminate rocket attacks. What she's

599
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 4: finding here clearly is that that's just not a sustainable

600
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:29,040
Speaker 4: position with Israel kind of lashing out constantly around the region.

601
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 5: Well, I was going to say, actually, it gets to

602
00:31:30,480 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 5: the point you were just making about it. I mean,

603
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:36,160
Speaker 5: you just said Israel doesn't not necessarily know what it's

604
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:39,200
Speaker 5: unleashed by provoking this war for so long. And there

605
00:31:39,200 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 5: are plenty of people in the American government who have

606
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 5: also been provoking and trying to bring us into this

607
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:48,959
Speaker 5: war for years as well. Because I imagine for AOC, I mean,

608
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 5: I don't know how you've done extensive reporting on this.

609
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 5: I don't know how Sincere that middle ground position was,

610
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:59,280
Speaker 5: But this is clearly Sincere. I mean, I think this

611
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 5: sounds like the authentic AOC. Actually, I think it was

612
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 5: very Sincere.

613
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:10,040
Speaker 4: I think that she genuinely thought that she could be

614
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 4: somebody that could bridge these camps because she thought she

615
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 4: could have credibility with both sides. You know, she was

616
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 4: ruthlessly attacked by APAK and its allies, and so there

617
00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:27,240
Speaker 4: was no political benefit to trying to play this reconciliation

618
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 4: role and there and there was only then criticism from

619
00:32:31,480 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 4: the other side. And then what does Israel do with

620
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 4: our endless quote unquote defensive weapons. They're invading and occupying Lebanon,

621
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 4: They're trying to annext the West Bank, they start a

622
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 4: war with Iran. They refused to like move to phase

623
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 4: two with with gods and allow any reconstruction or reasonable aid.

624
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:53,200
Speaker 3: They carried a genocide there.

625
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,200
Speaker 4: So at some point you're like, you know what, there's

626
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 4: no political benefit for this. The country won't go a

627
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 4: week without going to war or invading one of its neighbors,

628
00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 4: and so why am I going to kind of drag

629
00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:14,280
Speaker 4: my own potential presidential campaign down over an issue that

630
00:33:14,400 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 4: where I don't get any credit for it.

631
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:18,440
Speaker 5: Anyway, the incentive structure has changed. This is an an

632
00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 5: indication of how the politics have changed.

633
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, and tough. This is be tough for Gavin Newsom.

634
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 3: I think it could.

635
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 4: It'll challenge Rocanna, who I think has still been supportive

636
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:32,560
Speaker 4: of quote unquote defensive weapons. It's going to be like, well,

637
00:33:32,600 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 4: because the public is not going to when the public

638
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 4: is looking at one hundred and fifty dollars barrel five

639
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 4: six dollars gas, they're not going to want to hear

640
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:45,320
Speaker 4: about these distinctions about offensive and defensive weapons. So like

641
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 4: they're just using our weapons to create chaos and expand.

642
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:52,840
Speaker 3: Their territory in the Middle East. Why should we keep

643
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:53,239
Speaker 3: doing that?

644
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:54,920
Speaker 4: Is I think what you're going to hear from the

645
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 4: public and definitely from Democratic primary voters.

646
00:33:57,840 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 5: Well, let's get now to Professor Robert Pape, who's going

647
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 5: to brief us on the Escalation Trap. Well, as we

648
00:34:06,560 --> 00:34:08,840
Speaker 5: mentioned earlier in the show, Donald Trump plans to address

649
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 5: the nation on the Iran war with a quote update

650
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:16,399
Speaker 5: at nine pm Eastern live tonight. Now we're joined once

651
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:19,280
Speaker 5: again by Professor Robert Pape, has been on with Crystal

652
00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 5: and Sager and is of course author of the Escalation

653
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 5: Trap substack, where he's going to be doing a live

654
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:29,839
Speaker 5: briefing on Saturday, and wrote, actually, just like nine hours ago,

655
00:34:29,840 --> 00:34:32,320
Speaker 5: according to substack, I don't know you've got enough sleep,

656
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 5: Professor Pape, that Trump mayson yeh war, Oh gosh, that's

657
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:40,080
Speaker 5: not enough. Trump may say the war is over. He's wrong.

658
00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 5: Professor Pape, of course, is professor political science at the

659
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:46,360
Speaker 5: University of Chicago. You can and should follow the Escalation

660
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:50,160
Speaker 5: Trap on substack. Professor, thanks so much for joining us.

661
00:34:51,000 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 8: Thank you very much for having me. You accommodate my

662
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:58,880
Speaker 8: schedule here. I really appreciate that, and I'm also delighted

663
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:02,960
Speaker 8: to speak to the audience here again, which is so crucial.

664
00:35:03,120 --> 00:35:07,879
Speaker 8: Your audiences is so important, and I just couldn't thank

665
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:08,399
Speaker 8: you enough.

666
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:10,880
Speaker 5: Well, thank you, And we wanted to start with this

667
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:17,840
Speaker 5: clip of Benjamin Netanyahu talking about what Israel's goal for

668
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:24,280
Speaker 5: the region might be after the war. Obviously two nuclear

669
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:28,440
Speaker 5: or one nuclear nation, potentially trying to thwart another nuclear

670
00:35:28,560 --> 00:35:30,960
Speaker 5: nation from growing, which has been the focus of your

671
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 5: entire career, professor, So let's go ahead and roll the clip.

672
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 12: This is the guarantee for our future. We are working

673
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 12: on transforming Israel into a super nation in the region

674
00:35:42,640 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 12: and globally, and we were able to do so thanks

675
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 12: to our soldiers and our captains and all those who

676
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,480
Speaker 12: fought and those who died, and of course thanks to

677
00:35:54,520 --> 00:35:56,920
Speaker 12: your solidarity and your steadfastness.

678
00:35:57,600 --> 00:35:59,799
Speaker 5: So, Professor, the title, as I just read of your

679
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 5: post on the escalation trap is Trump may say the

680
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 5: war is over, he's wrong. Is this why you think

681
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 5: if Trump tries to say the war is over, he's wrong.

682
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:11,520
Speaker 8: Yes, Yes, what we're going to see and your listeners

683
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:14,799
Speaker 8: will know I talked about three stages. We've done. Stage one,

684
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 8: we've done, we're stage two. Stage three is the ground

685
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 8: power dilemma. Well, if we don't go to the ground war,

686
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,839
Speaker 8: that's not de escalation as many people would hope. It's

687
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:27,799
Speaker 8: going to be a stage four. There's going to be

688
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 8: a continuation. And that's what I'm going to explain here

689
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 8: and also more later. So stage four, and this is

690
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:39,760
Speaker 8: where Netna, who is really wrong, is about what will

691
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:44,440
Speaker 8: be the new center of world power coming out of

692
00:36:44,480 --> 00:36:47,720
Speaker 8: this conflict. Net Nyaho said it's going to be Israel.

693
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:51,120
Speaker 8: He's wrong. It's not going to be Israel. And you

694
00:36:51,120 --> 00:36:54,280
Speaker 8: can already see who it's going to be today, which

695
00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:59,680
Speaker 8: is Iran is not just controlling shipping the way people

696
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:04,280
Speaker 8: were just oil prices the way people are describing Iran

697
00:37:04,760 --> 00:37:10,720
Speaker 8: is controlling so much world oil so much and oil

698
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:16,959
Speaker 8: is so critical to world power that Iran is emerging

699
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:22,799
Speaker 8: as a new global center of power. So let me

700
00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:26,640
Speaker 8: just explain this a moment. So before the war thirty

701
00:37:26,680 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 8: three days ago, there were three centers of world power

702
00:37:30,760 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 8: we described, We discussed the US, Russia, and China. Now,

703
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:39,839
Speaker 8: why was Russia even in that mix? Because it had

704
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:43,920
Speaker 8: eleven percent of the world's oil, and of course it

705
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:51,480
Speaker 8: uses that for military purposes. Well, Iran now has double

706
00:37:52,239 --> 00:37:56,520
Speaker 8: that amount of world oil, more than any other country

707
00:37:56,600 --> 00:38:01,200
Speaker 8: on the planet. And what that's gonna mean seventy five

708
00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:06,439
Speaker 8: one hundred billion dollars a year more to put into military.

709
00:38:06,920 --> 00:38:10,880
Speaker 8: That nuclear enrichment is now more likely than ever to

710
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:16,640
Speaker 8: become nuclear weapons. And over time, as the months and

711
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:19,880
Speaker 8: the years go on, which I know we're having a

712
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 8: hard time coming to grips with the reality that's occurred

713
00:38:22,719 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 8: here is that this is going to create a new

714
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 8: center of world power and dwarf Fizral. This is you

715
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 8: can see right away. For all of our lifetimes, oil

716
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 8: has been so critical. And it's not just oil, of course,

717
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:42,920
Speaker 8: it's gas, it's the energy, it's the fertilizer. This is

718
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 8: what is what Iran has now as a choke.

719
00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:48,360
Speaker 7: Hold on the world.

720
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 8: But it's twenty percent and there's no way you're going

721
00:38:52,600 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 8: to make up for that in the next three or

722
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:58,839
Speaker 8: four years. Even if you start drilling now, it will

723
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 8: take that long. So Iran is coming out of this

724
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 8: and we've never seen this in our lifetimes. A new

725
00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:13,319
Speaker 8: world power center created in a month that's what's on

726
00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 8: issue here. So whatever President Trump says tonight, whether he

727
00:39:16,719 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 8: wants to go forward ground war or not, all of

728
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:22,040
Speaker 8: this we don't know, and he may not even know.

729
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:25,880
Speaker 8: Let's face it, he's been all over the map. The reality.

730
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:28,200
Speaker 8: I deal with the realities here, and what we are

731
00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:35,800
Speaker 8: seeing is escalation reality with strategic consequences. Those aren't over

732
00:39:36,000 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 8: because President Trump thinks he's going to stop and go

733
00:39:38,719 --> 00:39:42,279
Speaker 8: to Marlago and just cut himself off from the world. No,

734
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:46,400
Speaker 8: the world will have to live now with this new

735
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 8: center of world power, and there's no good way to

736
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 8: deal with this. This is why I was so opposed

737
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:55,279
Speaker 8: to this war. With the modeling I've been explaining, this

738
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:59,719
Speaker 8: is not like this will end up being worse than Vietnam.

739
00:40:00,120 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 8: Maybe not in battle death So the fifty eight thousand

740
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 8: dead that that took ten years however, so we haven't

741
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 8: been into this ten years yet. But it's because of

742
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:11,640
Speaker 8: the consequences. There was no way Vietnam was ever going

743
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,719
Speaker 8: to become a center of world power. It had no

744
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:17,640
Speaker 8: nuclear enriched material, it was not going to do shocks.

745
00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 8: This one was always fundamentally different, and I realized most

746
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 8: of the world would not know that, why should they

747
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 8: know that they're not modeling this for decades? This is

748
00:40:30,239 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 8: what was always coming. And that's why I said, this

749
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 8: is the horns of a dilemma. It's a branching with

750
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:40,279
Speaker 8: where we're at. It's not a well now that we

751
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:43,120
Speaker 8: are going to not go forward with the ground where

752
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 8: we can all live happily. Ever after oil prices are

753
00:40:46,800 --> 00:40:49,600
Speaker 8: going to come down, iron's just going to give up

754
00:40:49,640 --> 00:40:53,600
Speaker 8: the power that I'm describing. When was a country ever

755
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 8: give up any power, let alone world power? This will

756
00:40:58,160 --> 00:41:02,080
Speaker 8: be my new discussion point going forward, and that's why

757
00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 8: I so appreciate coming on your show to share it.

758
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 8: You got it first, basically an exclusive.

759
00:41:08,200 --> 00:41:09,920
Speaker 4: So I mean, do you answer the question of what

760
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:12,399
Speaker 4: country would ever just voluntarily give up power?

761
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:13,640
Speaker 3: Might be the United States?

762
00:41:14,440 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 8: Oh yeah, well that's what you can. So all that

763
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:23,720
Speaker 8: talk of America first, Okay, I've been trying to argue

764
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:27,440
Speaker 8: for America. I'm not using Trump's language. I'm not supporting that,

765
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 8: but I'm just pointing out that was always cheap sales talk,

766
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:35,239
Speaker 8: cheap sales talk. So what you're getting now is the reality, sir,

767
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 8: And what you were seeing is as the for centers

768
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:42,719
Speaker 8: of power. Now there are now four America is the

769
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:46,800
Speaker 8: one going down, Russia going up, China is going to

770
00:41:46,880 --> 00:41:51,000
Speaker 8: be going up, Iron's going up, Who's going down?

771
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:53,719
Speaker 4: And so we have a little breaking news on this

772
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:56,759
Speaker 4: nine o'clock event that Trump is having. So when we

773
00:41:56,800 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 4: get your reaction in real time. So he did one

774
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:03,200
Speaker 4: of these very brief interviews with Reuters about what he's

775
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:06,359
Speaker 4: going to talk about. He told Reuters he's going to

776
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:10,760
Speaker 4: express quote unquote my disgust with NATO, and it sounds

777
00:42:10,760 --> 00:42:14,800
Speaker 4: like it's going to be significantly a broadside against NATO.

778
00:42:14,920 --> 00:42:20,840
Speaker 4: And he said he's quote absolutely considering withdrawing US forces

779
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:25,320
Speaker 4: from NATO. So you've spent decades, he says, modeling these

780
00:42:25,680 --> 00:42:30,319
Speaker 4: the escalation trap when countries get involved. I don't know

781
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:32,960
Speaker 4: if you've ever had a model with this many variables.

782
00:42:33,560 --> 00:42:39,000
Speaker 8: Well, actually, so this is your audience is not familiar

783
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:42,040
Speaker 8: with this, but that's not it is the case, sir,

784
00:42:42,200 --> 00:42:44,560
Speaker 8: that we deal with this. So let me explain first

785
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:48,000
Speaker 8: to your audience what is NATO. Okay, NATO's not just

786
00:42:48,040 --> 00:42:51,960
Speaker 8: a political club, a talking club of diplomats. It's a

787
00:42:52,080 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 8: military organization with the American general at the top who

788
00:42:57,680 --> 00:43:04,720
Speaker 8: gives orders to the other countries' militaries. That's what NATO is, Okay,

789
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:09,200
Speaker 8: it's a command structure right now today, sir, Even though

790
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:11,640
Speaker 8: that still is in place, do you believe for a

791
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 8: second the British Army is going to follow General Kane

792
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:20,120
Speaker 8: the American Just imagine if General Kin said, British Army,

793
00:43:20,200 --> 00:43:23,360
Speaker 8: you go X. That's just not happening. So what I

794
00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:26,200
Speaker 8: would just say is we've talked about the fading away

795
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:29,719
Speaker 8: of NATO for years. We're not at that point anymore.

796
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:32,960
Speaker 8: NATO is dead. NATO is in the morgue, and the

797
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:38,360
Speaker 8: obituary is what's being written now, so it's already dead.

798
00:43:38,880 --> 00:43:43,839
Speaker 8: There's no way the Europeans are following the American generals here,

799
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:46,799
Speaker 8: and I'm sorry to say, even if it's a democratic

800
00:43:46,920 --> 00:43:50,960
Speaker 8: president comes in, they're not. We've elected Donald Trump twice.

801
00:43:51,040 --> 00:43:51,239
Speaker 7: Now.

802
00:43:51,560 --> 00:43:54,440
Speaker 8: The idea of the Europeans are going to obey orders

803
00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 8: from American general not happening. So this is really going

804
00:43:58,239 --> 00:44:02,000
Speaker 8: to have also major consequence because we never had to

805
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:06,000
Speaker 8: worry about this problem of you know, these little dust

806
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:08,880
Speaker 8: ups like on Greenland. Well, this this may be a

807
00:44:08,920 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 8: future here, and it's a horrible future. But I'm just

808
00:44:12,040 --> 00:44:15,719
Speaker 8: pointing out what Donald Trump has done here. This is

809
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:19,279
Speaker 8: this is much larger consequences.

810
00:44:19,880 --> 00:44:20,000
Speaker 6: Uh.

811
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:24,240
Speaker 8: And the oil shock and the energy shock is already astounding.

812
00:44:24,760 --> 00:44:29,080
Speaker 8: I'm explaining there's a stage four here and this is

813
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 8: this is even as astounding as it's been already in

814
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:37,919
Speaker 8: thirty three days. My gosh, the next six months we're

815
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:40,759
Speaker 8: gonna be this is gonna be the reverse of the

816
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 8: end of the Cold War. The end of the Cold War.

817
00:44:43,440 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 8: We shot up like a rocket, Like a rocket those

818
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:52,080
Speaker 8: nineties Bill Quinton's presidency. Oh my goodness, those days. Yeah, everybody,

819
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:54,080
Speaker 8: you all, yeah, we all know what.

820
00:44:54,600 --> 00:44:55,319
Speaker 3: Boy do we.

821
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 8: Want those days back?

822
00:44:56,640 --> 00:44:56,799
Speaker 13: Right?

823
00:44:57,239 --> 00:45:00,239
Speaker 8: Well, this is the other way around. We we are

824
00:45:00,280 --> 00:45:04,280
Speaker 8: now on the other end of this, going the other way.

825
00:45:04,960 --> 00:45:08,799
Speaker 8: Forty trillion in dat Oh my gosh, Alien, I mean,

826
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:12,840
Speaker 8: the the amount of trouble here. It's that's why we

827
00:45:13,080 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 8: I so appreciate again just talking to your smart on

828
00:45:15,800 --> 00:45:18,839
Speaker 8: It's it is, it's my favorite audience to talk to.

829
00:45:19,120 --> 00:45:21,799
Speaker 8: It's it's like being at the University of Chicago. You guy,

830
00:45:21,960 --> 00:45:24,960
Speaker 8: it's just the you're mean, it's just that that's.

831
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:27,080
Speaker 3: Done up too much. They're gonna get big heads.

832
00:45:27,120 --> 00:45:27,920
Speaker 10: But yeah, well.

833
00:45:29,480 --> 00:45:31,719
Speaker 8: You and it's you got and it's also your other

834
00:45:31,840 --> 00:45:34,640
Speaker 8: the other folks here. I mean this, you're asking really

835
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 8: the right questions.

836
00:45:36,400 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 5: And on that point you I wanted to ask about

837
00:45:39,640 --> 00:45:44,080
Speaker 5: this this thread that you posted yesterday. You mentioned at

838
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:47,479
Speaker 5: one point in this thread, watch the deployments as US

839
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:49,840
Speaker 5: forces moved to secure the Strait of Hormuz. The region

840
00:45:49,880 --> 00:45:52,480
Speaker 5: is already splitting, Irack as hedging, Qatar and Oman are

841
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 5: staying neutral, Saudi and UAE are growing more alarmed. So

842
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:58,400
Speaker 5: you posted that again according to X twenty two hours

843
00:45:58,400 --> 00:45:59,920
Speaker 5: ago this morning, that's right to.

844
00:45:59,840 --> 00:46:02,399
Speaker 8: The news that I came right out of class. And

845
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:05,319
Speaker 8: by the way, so I'm teaching here in just a

846
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:09,240
Speaker 8: few hours and essentially all my students are asking exactly

847
00:46:09,239 --> 00:46:12,399
Speaker 8: and my class are bursting. Okay, they're all asking all

848
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:15,160
Speaker 8: of this. So that's where that's why these thoughts are there,

849
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:18,200
Speaker 8: because I'm already talking to my students about these So

850
00:46:18,400 --> 00:46:19,959
Speaker 8: what you are seeing.

851
00:46:19,800 --> 00:46:21,080
Speaker 5: Oh, go ahead, Well, I was just saying, we woke

852
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:22,960
Speaker 5: up this morning in news that Amazon had been hit

853
00:46:23,040 --> 00:46:25,719
Speaker 5: in Bahrain, and that's what you see is threatening all

854
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:29,279
Speaker 5: these major defense contractors in the Golf region. And I

855
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:32,600
Speaker 5: was curious from your perspective, Professor, that seems like very

856
00:46:32,600 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 5: obvious trip wires around the entire region where you could

857
00:46:36,600 --> 00:46:39,440
Speaker 5: end up seeing boots on the ground to potentially defend

858
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:41,440
Speaker 5: those major defense contractors.

859
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:43,920
Speaker 8: Well, you're seeing this that we're on the horns of

860
00:46:43,960 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 8: the dilemma. So you're seeing right there, do we defend

861
00:46:46,680 --> 00:46:49,759
Speaker 8: it or do we go away? You see, this is

862
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:53,920
Speaker 8: what we're looking for here. And I suspect whatever President

863
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:57,640
Speaker 8: Trump says tonight two weeks from now, we'll see where

864
00:46:57,640 --> 00:47:01,520
Speaker 8: we're really at. That's why I say follow them right now.

865
00:47:01,640 --> 00:47:05,360
Speaker 8: We have another carrier coming to the region, we have

866
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:10,000
Speaker 8: more special forces being mobilized, We have the additional marines

867
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:15,440
Speaker 8: coming until those forces literally reverse course in the water

868
00:47:16,040 --> 00:47:19,720
Speaker 8: and the marine muse that big hunk of metal ships

869
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:22,839
Speaker 8: with all those equipment go back to Japan and go

870
00:47:22,960 --> 00:47:27,439
Speaker 8: back to California, and we start pulling out forces from

871
00:47:27,440 --> 00:47:30,800
Speaker 8: the region and moving them to other parts of the world.

872
00:47:31,360 --> 00:47:34,399
Speaker 8: This is not a reality the rhetoric here. We've got

873
00:47:34,400 --> 00:47:38,480
Speaker 8: to see that's what that deployment is. And also what

874
00:47:38,520 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 8: you're also seeing is the second point I made is

875
00:47:41,200 --> 00:47:45,360
Speaker 8: that Iran I warned before that as Iran's horizontal escalation

876
00:47:45,520 --> 00:47:48,960
Speaker 8: would continue, you would see the fracturing of the Golf States.

877
00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:52,880
Speaker 8: That's exactly what you're seeing. And Bahrain I explain in

878
00:47:52,920 --> 00:47:56,800
Speaker 8: that tweet here there's three groups in the Golf States.

879
00:47:56,840 --> 00:48:01,760
Speaker 8: Now there's those already bandwagoning toward that's a rock. There's

880
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:05,360
Speaker 8: those that have been in the middle that is Oman

881
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:08,880
Speaker 8: and cutter, and they're desperately trying to duck and avoid

882
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:12,879
Speaker 8: any getting But they're in the middle. They're not pro

883
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:18,960
Speaker 8: America now. And now you have the others and Bahrain UAE,

884
00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:22,080
Speaker 8: these have been focused here, they have some Shia, they

885
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:27,359
Speaker 8: have there's real reasons to pressure those particular states, and

886
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:31,480
Speaker 8: that's what you're seeing Iran doing. They're being extremely smart

887
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 8: about how they're fracturing those three pools. And what they're

888
00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:41,040
Speaker 8: doing is breaking the coalition. We're not growing that we

889
00:48:41,120 --> 00:48:44,960
Speaker 8: just talked about the Indonato. We're are coalitions falling apart

890
00:48:45,480 --> 00:48:49,960
Speaker 8: here and they're picking up pieces and this is the problem.

891
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:52,719
Speaker 8: Russia will pick up some more pieces, China will pick

892
00:48:52,800 --> 00:48:55,799
Speaker 8: up some more pieces. So this is what we are

893
00:48:55,960 --> 00:48:58,720
Speaker 8: we are going to see more of. And I don't

894
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:02,320
Speaker 8: know if city months from now, President Trump may decide

895
00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 8: he wants to keep American forces and bases there. He

896
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:08,359
Speaker 8: may have to fight to keep them there, just where

897
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:11,799
Speaker 8: they are today. So I don't mean to grow. I

898
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:15,719
Speaker 8: mean these Bahrain has a big base. They may throw

899
00:49:15,840 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 8: us out and we may have to say, well, we'll

900
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:21,359
Speaker 8: have to topple the Bahrain government to keep that. Are

901
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:23,920
Speaker 8: we really going to do? These are the choices President

902
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:26,560
Speaker 8: Trump has put us in. Now, this is not where

903
00:49:26,600 --> 00:49:28,279
Speaker 8: we were thirty three days ago.

904
00:49:29,680 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 4: You had written something that it was a kind of

905
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:36,600
Speaker 4: a disturbing insight, which cuts against I think of a

906
00:49:36,680 --> 00:49:39,080
Speaker 4: lot of the conventional thinking about how this unfolds, and

907
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 4: I think the markets in general seem to think, Okay,

908
00:49:43,920 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 4: this can't go on because it's going to destroy the

909
00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:49,560
Speaker 4: world like that. You know, the longer this goes on,

910
00:49:49,960 --> 00:49:55,200
Speaker 4: the more energy volatility we have, and by volatility actually

911
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:56,279
Speaker 4: just heading straight down.

912
00:49:56,360 --> 00:49:57,840
Speaker 3: It's not even volatile, it's just down.

913
00:49:59,200 --> 00:50:04,800
Speaker 4: Trump will back off to clare victory because the source

914
00:50:04,840 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 4: of the problem, the source of the economic crisis, is

915
00:50:09,120 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 4: what Trump's doing, So he'll remove himself from that, therefore

916
00:50:13,160 --> 00:50:15,200
Speaker 4: removing the source of the instability and the crisis, and

917
00:50:15,239 --> 00:50:16,799
Speaker 4: we'll be back to normal. That seems to be the

918
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:20,160
Speaker 4: market's assumption, which is why they haven't completely bottomed out.

919
00:50:20,440 --> 00:50:25,040
Speaker 4: Your argument is that that, no, this instability actually kind

920
00:50:25,040 --> 00:50:29,560
Speaker 4: of feeds the cyclical trap itself.

921
00:50:29,960 --> 00:50:33,800
Speaker 3: Can you walk us through that a little bit because that, Yeah.

922
00:50:33,200 --> 00:50:36,759
Speaker 8: So the trap is I've explained it so far here

923
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:39,040
Speaker 8: and let me just repeat that because it's very helpful,

924
00:50:39,160 --> 00:50:44,120
Speaker 8: is at each of those stages I described, the Americans

925
00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:49,520
Speaker 8: are tactically successful but strategically failing, and it's the failure

926
00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:54,279
Speaker 8: and the counterproductive. We're in a worse position at each

927
00:50:54,320 --> 00:50:58,320
Speaker 8: stage that sucks us to go deeper into the trap.

928
00:50:58,800 --> 00:51:02,000
Speaker 8: When I'm adding now is a new layer and that's

929
00:51:02,040 --> 00:51:05,240
Speaker 8: what you're you're noticing, and thank you very much again

930
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:07,840
Speaker 8: smart identification of the newness.

931
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 3: Here.

932
00:51:08,560 --> 00:51:12,520
Speaker 8: What I'm adding is, and I'm really talking to JP Morgan,

933
00:51:12,600 --> 00:51:15,880
Speaker 8: I'm talking to Jamie Diamond. I'm talking directly to those people,

934
00:51:15,920 --> 00:51:17,799
Speaker 8: even though they may never have heard my.

935
00:51:17,880 --> 00:51:21,600
Speaker 5: Name saying that on that list yesterday, I was going

936
00:51:21,680 --> 00:51:23,520
Speaker 5: to say JP Morgan was on the list of defense

937
00:51:23,560 --> 00:51:26,880
Speaker 5: contractors that the IRGC said are now fair game in

938
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:27,239
Speaker 5: the region.

939
00:51:27,320 --> 00:51:31,360
Speaker 8: Yes, that's that's exactly right. I'm trying to explain why

940
00:51:31,560 --> 00:51:37,840
Speaker 8: their assumption is fatally flawed for their business. I don't

941
00:51:37,880 --> 00:51:42,560
Speaker 8: just mean like cocktail chatter, okay, I'm I'm trying to

942
00:51:42,600 --> 00:51:45,759
Speaker 8: go to the heart of the matter. And the heart

943
00:51:45,800 --> 00:51:49,960
Speaker 8: of the matter is they're assuming that the root of

944
00:51:50,040 --> 00:51:54,720
Speaker 8: this can be snagged out by just simply Trump walking away.

945
00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 8: And I've heard Jamie Dimond yesterday talking about this on Fox.

946
00:51:58,239 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 8: He's just wrong, It's just flat out wrong. And the

947
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:06,520
Speaker 8: reason is because we have created through no intention, but

948
00:52:06,600 --> 00:52:11,680
Speaker 8: we've created a new center of world power. And Iran

949
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:14,880
Speaker 8: is not going to stop trying to grow that power.

950
00:52:15,480 --> 00:52:20,320
Speaker 8: They're gonna want to exert more influence in the Persian Gulf,

951
00:52:20,560 --> 00:52:22,759
Speaker 8: and that's what you're seeing in those Amazon attacks. And

952
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:25,200
Speaker 8: now absolutely they're gonna want to knock JP Morgan and

953
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:28,799
Speaker 8: Amazon out. That's that's Western imperialism as they see it.

954
00:52:29,120 --> 00:52:31,480
Speaker 8: And they have a lot of power, and especially as

955
00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:35,080
Speaker 8: if Trump pulls back, they will have even more power. Then.

956
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:38,200
Speaker 8: They also have growing power in Asia. I've been talking

957
00:52:38,239 --> 00:52:41,160
Speaker 8: to the Hong Kong of Bloomberg, hongn Kong, others in Asia.

958
00:52:42,040 --> 00:52:44,440
Speaker 8: So much of the oil from the Middle East goes

959
00:52:44,520 --> 00:52:48,960
Speaker 8: to Asia, and Asia right now is in a supply crunch,

960
00:52:49,080 --> 00:52:53,040
Speaker 8: not just a cost crunch. But there is in the Philippines,

961
00:52:53,239 --> 00:52:56,719
Speaker 8: there's two hundred million people in a supply crunch here,

962
00:52:56,760 --> 00:53:00,319
Speaker 8: almost the size of the United States in Asia. This

963
00:53:00,440 --> 00:53:06,720
Speaker 8: is generating enormous power for Iran and also in relation

964
00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:10,719
Speaker 8: with China, they can do more and more together. And

965
00:53:10,760 --> 00:53:14,160
Speaker 8: so what you're going to see here is this fundamental

966
00:53:14,200 --> 00:53:17,360
Speaker 8: assumption that this can all just be blown over. And

967
00:53:17,440 --> 00:53:19,880
Speaker 8: all we have to do is we're gonna apologize for

968
00:53:20,040 --> 00:53:23,600
Speaker 8: killing the Supreme Leader and yeah, Trump was stupid, and

969
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:26,520
Speaker 8: then we're all gonna admit that it was just Trump. Here,

970
00:53:26,520 --> 00:53:29,640
Speaker 8: we're just gonna blame Trump, blame that in Yahoo, and

971
00:53:29,800 --> 00:53:33,520
Speaker 8: Iran's gonna just give up world power. No, And who's

972
00:53:33,520 --> 00:53:37,799
Speaker 8: gonna pay the price? The businesses JP, Morgan, Amazon. This

973
00:53:37,880 --> 00:53:41,440
Speaker 8: is gonna have mega effects because they're not up for

974
00:53:41,760 --> 00:53:45,800
Speaker 8: If they want ai, Auran's gonna get ai from somebody,

975
00:53:46,400 --> 00:53:49,640
Speaker 8: it's China. And I spent two weeks in China last

976
00:53:49,719 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 8: June touring the AI factories and and and shops on

977
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:56,280
Speaker 8: the on the robot shop floor to see for myself

978
00:53:56,600 --> 00:53:59,799
Speaker 8: how the byds and so forth are being made. And oh,

979
00:53:59,840 --> 00:54:04,400
Speaker 8: my goodness, gracious, China has enormous leverage here that it

980
00:54:04,440 --> 00:54:09,440
Speaker 8: can share that AI with Iran, and so this idea

981
00:54:09,560 --> 00:54:13,040
Speaker 8: that Iran needs JP Morgan, I don't know what I

982
00:54:13,080 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 8: don't I'm miss trying to explain. This is this is

983
00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:19,240
Speaker 8: the fatal flaw in that thinking.

984
00:54:19,480 --> 00:54:22,160
Speaker 3: And we have other break real quick with other breaking news.

985
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:26,880
Speaker 4: The manufacturing numbers are out for March and the actual

986
00:54:26,960 --> 00:54:32,680
Speaker 4: is plus seven point eight points over the consensus, the

987
00:54:32,760 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 4: highest number since mid twenty twenty two.

988
00:54:35,800 --> 00:54:36,680
Speaker 3: This is oil.

989
00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:42,400
Speaker 4: Already, oil prices already funneling their way into manufacturing prices,

990
00:54:42,400 --> 00:54:45,800
Speaker 4: which is just another way of saying you're getting poorer.

991
00:54:45,840 --> 00:54:49,279
Speaker 5: And meanwhile, Professor Stocks, the market's just opened about an

992
00:54:49,320 --> 00:54:51,680
Speaker 5: hour ago as we're speaking here. In the CNBC headline

993
00:54:51,719 --> 00:54:54,799
Speaker 5: is stocks are hired to start the month as optimism

994
00:54:54,920 --> 00:54:58,120
Speaker 5: around Iran war ending grows.

995
00:54:59,120 --> 00:55:01,960
Speaker 8: Well, shure, they haven't caught up to the reality that

996
00:55:02,040 --> 00:55:05,960
Speaker 8: I'm explaining. They still think Iran is four percent of

997
00:55:06,000 --> 00:55:10,319
Speaker 8: the world's oil. They're they're they're operating as if we

998
00:55:10,320 --> 00:55:14,680
Speaker 8: were thirty three days ago and all that's changed is bombing.

999
00:55:15,200 --> 00:55:18,240
Speaker 8: So we end bombing and everything goes back to thirty

1000
00:55:18,280 --> 00:55:22,520
Speaker 8: three days ago. There's just a flaw here. I don't

1001
00:55:22,520 --> 00:55:26,239
Speaker 8: know quite how to explain it. There's a reality, and

1002
00:55:26,280 --> 00:55:31,360
Speaker 8: that reality is Iran is a world power now and

1003
00:55:31,440 --> 00:55:35,120
Speaker 8: as each week and month goes by, this will become

1004
00:55:35,160 --> 00:55:38,120
Speaker 8: more and more evident, and at some point markets will

1005
00:55:38,160 --> 00:55:40,600
Speaker 8: catch up. I mean markets are often you know behind.

1006
00:55:40,600 --> 00:55:45,480
Speaker 8: I mean I always say, you know, Washington is three

1007
00:55:45,520 --> 00:55:51,560
Speaker 8: to six months behind, and markets are typically long behind

1008
00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:53,400
Speaker 8: more than that. That's how you get the balloon. So

1009
00:55:53,440 --> 00:55:56,600
Speaker 8: otherwise you would not have those balloons topping. So the

1010
00:55:56,680 --> 00:56:00,200
Speaker 8: fact the market, that's just another group of smart piece people.

1011
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:03,279
Speaker 8: I deal with smart people all the time. Everybody I

1012
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:06,480
Speaker 8: deal with has is at the University of Chicago is

1013
00:56:06,520 --> 00:56:10,359
Speaker 8: actually really smart. So this is not about smart versus not.

1014
00:56:10,880 --> 00:56:14,359
Speaker 8: This is about how to understand the reality that we're

1015
00:56:14,400 --> 00:56:20,239
Speaker 8: seeing versus the hopes that we also all have. Well

1016
00:56:22,000 --> 00:56:27,440
Speaker 8: that sucks, I'm sorry to say it's but you're gllowing me.

1017
00:56:27,600 --> 00:56:30,400
Speaker 8: This is why I keep complimenting folks. You're allowing me

1018
00:56:30,520 --> 00:56:33,759
Speaker 8: to express it. You're following, you're seeing what's new at

1019
00:56:33,800 --> 00:56:37,520
Speaker 8: each week because the world I'm not just responding to,

1020
00:56:38,040 --> 00:56:41,200
Speaker 8: you know, yesterday's news. I'm trying to explain what to

1021
00:56:41,280 --> 00:56:46,000
Speaker 8: expect in the coming weeks. And I don't think that

1022
00:56:46,640 --> 00:56:51,080
Speaker 8: the United States pulling back equals de escalation in the

1023
00:56:51,120 --> 00:56:55,839
Speaker 8: way we would understand it, which is the economic shock here.

1024
00:56:57,600 --> 00:57:03,360
Speaker 8: Aaron is going to squeeze these countries as they go through,

1025
00:57:03,400 --> 00:57:06,080
Speaker 8: and I suspect they will never let a drop of

1026
00:57:06,120 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 8: oil from Saudi Arabia or UEE pass the Strait of

1027
00:57:09,160 --> 00:57:14,640
Speaker 8: Hormuz here because they want to topple those governments. And

1028
00:57:14,719 --> 00:57:18,160
Speaker 8: I think that's why Saudi Arabia is talking to Pakistan,

1029
00:57:18,840 --> 00:57:21,880
Speaker 8: because Saudi Arabia is looking for who's gonna help me?

1030
00:57:22,360 --> 00:57:27,000
Speaker 8: And Pakistan's friendly to Iran, So why is Saudi Arabia

1031
00:57:27,240 --> 00:57:32,880
Speaker 8: making these relationships with Pakistan here? They need a backup

1032
00:57:33,000 --> 00:57:36,680
Speaker 8: in case Uncle Trump bails on them, and who would Yeah,

1033
00:57:36,760 --> 00:57:39,120
Speaker 8: you can see right away you're not counting on Trump.

1034
00:57:39,480 --> 00:57:42,240
Speaker 8: So what are you doing? You're looking for a backup

1035
00:57:42,280 --> 00:57:46,160
Speaker 8: plan and Pakistan may not be your best bet, but

1036
00:57:46,400 --> 00:57:50,320
Speaker 8: it's probably your only bet here to help. NBS has

1037
00:57:50,360 --> 00:57:52,800
Speaker 8: got a real problem. How is he going to his

1038
00:57:52,920 --> 00:57:57,760
Speaker 8: regime survive in this situation where he's lost that much

1039
00:57:57,800 --> 00:58:00,960
Speaker 8: oil revenue so he can't use money as much as

1040
00:58:00,960 --> 00:58:05,680
Speaker 8: he could before. Iran is gaining power. These are the

1041
00:58:05,800 --> 00:58:10,320
Speaker 8: real consequences that I'm explaining by the new center of power.

1042
00:58:10,840 --> 00:58:14,400
Speaker 8: Uh and it's just not likely to change. I just

1043
00:58:14,440 --> 00:58:16,520
Speaker 8: don't see how Iran. Even if you got a new

1044
00:58:16,560 --> 00:58:18,960
Speaker 8: regime in Iran, why would they give up all this power?

1045
00:58:19,560 --> 00:58:23,040
Speaker 4: And Saudi Arabia reached a security deal with Pakistan, and

1046
00:58:23,040 --> 00:58:25,360
Speaker 4: I think the reason that Pakistan was trying to host

1047
00:58:26,320 --> 00:58:29,360
Speaker 4: the mediation talks is that so Pakistan could then tell

1048
00:58:29,360 --> 00:58:32,400
Speaker 4: Saudi Arabia, sorry, we can't participate in this war.

1049
00:58:32,520 --> 00:58:35,000
Speaker 3: We're mediators, but they're not.

1050
00:58:35,080 --> 00:58:35,280
Speaker 12: Well.

1051
00:58:35,320 --> 00:58:36,400
Speaker 3: I would go a little further.

1052
00:58:36,480 --> 00:58:38,680
Speaker 8: I was just on for half an hour with the

1053
00:58:38,720 --> 00:58:43,000
Speaker 8: big Pakistani media because I think what's being missed there

1054
00:58:43,080 --> 00:58:45,880
Speaker 8: is I think Pakistan has been one of the countries

1055
00:58:46,040 --> 00:58:51,960
Speaker 8: understanding this emerging geopolitical power, not just the details. And

1056
00:58:52,040 --> 00:58:55,080
Speaker 8: so if you notice who else was there, it was

1057
00:58:55,840 --> 00:58:59,720
Speaker 8: you basically had Pakistan, you had Turkey, you had Saudi

1058
00:58:59,760 --> 00:59:05,240
Speaker 8: ira you have Iran. This is the anti there's a

1059
00:59:05,360 --> 00:59:11,280
Speaker 8: growing anti American coalition that is emerging here. As soon

1060
00:59:11,320 --> 00:59:17,520
Speaker 8: as we talked about arming the Kurds, we effectively lost Turkey.

1061
00:59:17,560 --> 00:59:20,600
Speaker 8: I mean, Turkey's got millions of Kurds. The idea we're

1062
00:59:20,600 --> 00:59:23,439
Speaker 8: going to arm the Kurds. The the first thing those

1063
00:59:23,560 --> 00:59:26,480
Speaker 8: Kurds are likely to want to do is turn on Turkey.

1064
00:59:26,880 --> 00:59:30,640
Speaker 8: So this is already our ideas here. Are are just

1065
00:59:31,440 --> 00:59:37,960
Speaker 8: doing everything to push away those countries, and Pakistan is

1066
00:59:38,080 --> 00:59:41,600
Speaker 8: starting to build coalitions here. So I don't think this

1067
00:59:41,760 --> 00:59:44,920
Speaker 8: is just about being mister nice guy Pakistan, let's be nice.

1068
00:59:45,600 --> 00:59:47,920
Speaker 8: I think that what you're seeing is the reality of

1069
00:59:47,960 --> 00:59:50,840
Speaker 8: how the geopolitical game is played.

1070
00:59:51,120 --> 00:59:55,440
Speaker 4: All right, Professor Robert Pape, author of the Escalation Trap Substack,

1071
00:59:55,520 --> 00:59:57,480
Speaker 4: probably have to talk to you again next week to

1072
00:59:57,880 --> 00:59:58,600
Speaker 4: get more depressed.

1073
00:59:59,520 --> 01:00:01,400
Speaker 8: I'm very we had to do it so and thank

1074
01:00:01,440 --> 01:00:03,040
Speaker 8: you so much, really, thank you.

1075
01:00:03,080 --> 01:00:05,080
Speaker 3: That was excellent. Thank you got it all right, We'll

1076
01:00:05,080 --> 01:00:05,600
Speaker 3: see you later.

1077
01:00:05,680 --> 01:00:09,440
Speaker 4: Up next, a little rundown on the economic news, and

1078
01:00:09,640 --> 01:00:11,880
Speaker 4: guess what it's not great more bad news.

1079
01:00:15,240 --> 01:00:18,400
Speaker 5: Major announcement from Oracle yesterday. We could put C two

1080
01:00:18,480 --> 01:00:21,800
Speaker 5: up on the screen here the headline Oracle slashes thirty

1081
01:00:22,280 --> 01:00:27,280
Speaker 5: thousand jobs with a cold six am email. Thirty thousand

1082
01:00:27,400 --> 01:00:30,840
Speaker 5: jobs yesterday. Now we can move back to element C one.

1083
01:00:31,560 --> 01:00:33,720
Speaker 5: Put that up on the screen. The economic indicators are

1084
01:00:33,720 --> 01:00:36,800
Speaker 5: starting to look very bleak. Indeed, this is a quote

1085
01:00:36,800 --> 01:00:40,320
Speaker 5: from reporter Steve Luckner, who said in a speech with

1086
01:00:40,400 --> 01:00:43,280
Speaker 5: echoes of the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. This

1087
01:00:43,360 --> 01:00:47,200
Speaker 5: is pulled from a political Europe article. EU Energy chief

1088
01:00:47,280 --> 01:00:51,160
Speaker 5: Dan Jrgensen said Europe was facing a very serious situation

1089
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:56,040
Speaker 5: with no clear end in sight. Ryan Trump has teased

1090
01:00:56,120 --> 01:00:58,560
Speaker 5: the speech to the nation at nine pm last I checked.

1091
01:00:58,600 --> 01:01:01,600
Speaker 5: Futures were up, which interesting given all of this news

1092
01:01:01,600 --> 01:01:05,880
Speaker 5: that we're going through right now. But let's say we

1093
01:01:05,920 --> 01:01:08,520
Speaker 5: didn't have this announcement about a Trump speech. Hypothetically say

1094
01:01:08,560 --> 01:01:10,480
Speaker 5: we have absolutely no idea what he's going to say,

1095
01:01:10,480 --> 01:01:13,680
Speaker 5: which isn't just a hypothetical. That's always true of Donald Trump.

1096
01:01:13,880 --> 01:01:16,320
Speaker 5: People seem to believe he's going to indicate a kind

1097
01:01:16,320 --> 01:01:20,880
Speaker 5: of mission mission accomplished type moment, public relations end of

1098
01:01:20,880 --> 01:01:25,120
Speaker 5: the war. We've won, We're successful. What do you make

1099
01:01:25,840 --> 01:01:29,160
Speaker 5: What do you make of the economic indicators? Is he responding,

1100
01:01:29,280 --> 01:01:33,440
Speaker 5: Let's say to some of this really bleak, some of

1101
01:01:33,480 --> 01:01:36,880
Speaker 5: the bleak prospects from places like Europe, which are saying, listen,

1102
01:01:37,000 --> 01:01:38,840
Speaker 5: this is pandemic level.

1103
01:01:38,920 --> 01:01:42,720
Speaker 4: Possibly yeah, and oracle is probably what you know AI related.

1104
01:01:42,800 --> 01:01:45,840
Speaker 4: Plus a bunch of their money comes from Gulf states.

1105
01:01:45,520 --> 01:01:49,040
Speaker 5: Which they're also on the IRGC list of companies to target.

1106
01:01:49,320 --> 01:01:54,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, and so this is a clash between the ability

1107
01:01:54,760 --> 01:02:02,200
Speaker 4: of a president to manipulate markets and actual reality. And

1108
01:02:02,280 --> 01:02:04,800
Speaker 4: so actual reality with the Gulf countries, which are major

1109
01:02:04,840 --> 01:02:10,400
Speaker 4: finance financiers of Oracle, are struggling because they're getting bombed constantly. Uh,

1110
01:02:10,480 --> 01:02:14,760
Speaker 4: and their their ability to produce the thing and distribute

1111
01:02:14,800 --> 01:02:18,520
Speaker 4: the thing that undergirds their wealth is being undercut by

1112
01:02:18,560 --> 01:02:22,440
Speaker 4: the war. Trump thinks if he can tease that the

1113
01:02:22,440 --> 01:02:25,440
Speaker 4: war is going to end constantly, that.

1114
01:02:25,280 --> 01:02:27,400
Speaker 3: That will kind of prop up the markets.

1115
01:02:27,400 --> 01:02:31,600
Speaker 4: But at some point people actually need the things that

1116
01:02:31,640 --> 01:02:33,680
Speaker 4: are being produced and they're not able to get them.

1117
01:02:34,320 --> 01:02:34,440
Speaker 8: Uh.

1118
01:02:34,800 --> 01:02:38,560
Speaker 4: It's not just fuel helium which is a by you know,

1119
01:02:38,600 --> 01:02:40,560
Speaker 4: I guess it's a byproduct of the process of making

1120
01:02:40,960 --> 01:02:44,400
Speaker 4: natural gas. Or you need it, you know, don't don't

1121
01:02:44,400 --> 01:02:46,400
Speaker 4: take your scientific news from me.

1122
01:02:46,720 --> 01:02:48,120
Speaker 5: I only get science from you.

1123
01:02:48,520 --> 01:02:50,640
Speaker 4: It's it's very hard to get helium. Now we're entering

1124
01:02:50,680 --> 01:02:55,240
Speaker 4: a helium shortage. Liquid helium is essential to actually AI

1125
01:02:56,040 --> 01:02:58,520
Speaker 4: but also you know, MRI machines and all sorts of

1126
01:02:58,600 --> 01:03:01,800
Speaker 4: other like advanced technology because it is able to be

1127
01:03:01,920 --> 01:03:05,960
Speaker 4: cooled to an extremely low temperature, which is essen essential

1128
01:03:06,000 --> 01:03:08,800
Speaker 4: to a lot of magnetic technology that's related to these

1129
01:03:09,240 --> 01:03:14,760
Speaker 4: high end processing functions. Fertilizer, which is now this I

1130
01:03:14,800 --> 01:03:17,080
Speaker 4: can tell you something about spring is when you plant

1131
01:03:17,080 --> 01:03:19,920
Speaker 4: thinks that I can tell you if you didn't know that,

1132
01:03:21,280 --> 01:03:24,200
Speaker 4: it's now spring. So that there's two pieces of information.

1133
01:03:25,040 --> 01:03:28,280
Speaker 4: The fertilizer runs through the strait of Hormos. China has

1134
01:03:28,360 --> 01:03:32,600
Speaker 4: basically stopped exporting fertilizer because they realize they need it

1135
01:03:32,640 --> 01:03:37,320
Speaker 4: for their country, dastardly Chinese, and so all around the

1136
01:03:37,320 --> 01:03:43,840
Speaker 4: world farmers who are beginning the planting season do not

1137
01:03:44,000 --> 01:03:49,120
Speaker 4: have the nitrogen rich fertilizers prosphus rich fertilizers that they need.

1138
01:03:49,720 --> 01:03:54,040
Speaker 4: That is going to again helping you out here, mean

1139
01:03:54,080 --> 01:03:54,640
Speaker 4: that there's gonna be.

1140
01:03:54,640 --> 01:03:56,560
Speaker 3: Less food, which.

1141
01:03:56,360 --> 01:03:59,120
Speaker 4: Means it's people are going to starve and people are

1142
01:03:59,120 --> 01:04:03,120
Speaker 4: going to pay more for food. Your quality life is

1143
01:04:03,160 --> 01:04:05,760
Speaker 4: going to go down, and that's money that because you

1144
01:04:05,800 --> 01:04:07,760
Speaker 4: have to spend money on food, that's money that you're

1145
01:04:07,800 --> 01:04:08,840
Speaker 4: not going to have for other things.

1146
01:04:09,040 --> 01:04:10,560
Speaker 5: And let's take a look at these numbers that Joe

1147
01:04:10,560 --> 01:04:13,800
Speaker 5: Wisenthal pointed out yesterday. This is the next element will

1148
01:04:13,920 --> 01:04:18,760
Speaker 5: the employment situation compound. What Ryan was just describing whysnant

1149
01:04:18,800 --> 01:04:22,240
Speaker 5: Thal looking at the new Joult report said while the

1150
01:04:22,360 --> 01:04:25,800
Speaker 5: hiring rate in February hit the same level it did

1151
01:04:25,800 --> 01:04:28,760
Speaker 5: in April twenty twenty.

1152
01:04:28,840 --> 01:04:31,040
Speaker 4: So April twenty twenty, what was going on in April

1153
01:04:31,040 --> 01:04:35,520
Speaker 4: twenty twenty, Was anybody hiring in April twenty twenty, No,

1154
01:04:35,520 --> 01:04:40,480
Speaker 4: nobody was hiring. In other words, nobody is hiring today,

1155
01:04:40,800 --> 01:04:42,640
Speaker 4: like right now. This is one of the things that you.

1156
01:04:42,720 --> 01:04:44,680
Speaker 5: Got a new class of graduates about to edger.

1157
01:04:44,520 --> 01:04:46,600
Speaker 3: The workforce right now. Yeah, yes, people.

1158
01:04:46,680 --> 01:04:49,600
Speaker 4: I feel so horrible for people who are graduating in

1159
01:04:50,160 --> 01:04:55,680
Speaker 4: May entering the workforce quote unquote workforce. This is We've

1160
01:04:55,720 --> 01:04:58,200
Speaker 4: seen this for about the last year, even before it

1161
01:04:58,240 --> 01:05:01,360
Speaker 4: was showing up in the data, right readers, viewers were

1162
01:05:01,360 --> 01:05:04,000
Speaker 4: telling us this, People in our lives were telling us

1163
01:05:04,040 --> 01:05:06,960
Speaker 4: this that like, and hiring managers were telling us this

1164
01:05:07,120 --> 01:05:07,560
Speaker 4: that like.

1165
01:05:09,520 --> 01:05:11,960
Speaker 3: They're just are not job openings.

1166
01:05:12,400 --> 01:05:17,880
Speaker 4: That unemployment is remaining fairly low relative to historical.

1167
01:05:19,200 --> 01:05:19,600
Speaker 3: Highs.

1168
01:05:20,880 --> 01:05:22,680
Speaker 4: But if you do not have a job, trying to

1169
01:05:22,720 --> 01:05:26,240
Speaker 4: find one is like impossible, And all of these companies

1170
01:05:26,400 --> 01:05:30,920
Speaker 4: are putting out fake job openings for data purposes. Have

1171
01:05:31,040 --> 01:05:35,440
Speaker 4: you seen this, And so people are then applying to

1172
01:05:35,520 --> 01:05:38,760
Speaker 4: all these fake jobs, of course not getting an interview

1173
01:05:38,800 --> 01:05:40,479
Speaker 4: or anything else because it's not a real job.

1174
01:05:40,720 --> 01:05:41,280
Speaker 3: That should be.

1175
01:05:41,200 --> 01:05:47,160
Speaker 4: Illegal, by the way, And you know they're using AI

1176
01:05:47,320 --> 01:05:50,360
Speaker 4: in their HR departments. The people who are creating their

1177
01:05:50,360 --> 01:05:53,080
Speaker 4: resumes are using AI to brush them up. So it's

1178
01:05:53,120 --> 01:05:56,800
Speaker 4: AI talking to AI and humans and humans are just

1179
01:05:56,920 --> 01:05:59,360
Speaker 4: as you see in that chart, just cut out of

1180
01:05:59,400 --> 01:06:00,280
Speaker 4: the equation.

1181
01:06:00,280 --> 01:06:04,920
Speaker 5: And they're feeling it. The humans, unlike the robots, are responding.

1182
01:06:05,120 --> 01:06:06,080
Speaker 5: Let's roll see four.

1183
01:06:06,800 --> 01:06:09,160
Speaker 13: I struggle every day and now I'm taking care of

1184
01:06:09,160 --> 01:06:12,840
Speaker 13: my mom who's older and denied simple simple things like

1185
01:06:12,880 --> 01:06:13,640
Speaker 13: rereading and meds.

1186
01:06:15,560 --> 01:06:18,840
Speaker 3: Soll gas, what are you going to do?

1187
01:06:20,000 --> 01:06:22,000
Speaker 13: So I don't eat this week because I have to

1188
01:06:22,080 --> 01:06:23,640
Speaker 13: take mom to the doctors tomorrow.

1189
01:06:23,720 --> 01:06:27,200
Speaker 14: If you could pick one word to describe the economy,

1190
01:06:27,440 --> 01:06:31,680
Speaker 14: your economy, your economic situation right now under these conditions,

1191
01:06:31,720 --> 01:06:34,080
Speaker 14: one word to describe that desolate.

1192
01:06:35,000 --> 01:06:37,280
Speaker 5: So that was just a normal man from Florida that

1193
01:06:37,480 --> 01:06:40,800
Speaker 5: ms NOW interviewed about the state of the country yesterday

1194
01:06:40,800 --> 01:06:43,200
Speaker 5: and run. One of the interesting things I saw in

1195
01:06:43,320 --> 01:06:46,120
Speaker 5: a report about TSA. I'm trying to remember which publication

1196
01:06:46,320 --> 01:06:47,560
Speaker 5: was off the top of my head. But they did

1197
01:06:47,640 --> 01:06:51,520
Speaker 5: a great interview with a TSA agent who said he

1198
01:06:51,680 --> 01:06:55,440
Speaker 5: actually was he part of a strike. Yes, it sounded

1199
01:06:55,440 --> 01:06:57,040
Speaker 5: like he was part of a strike, but he actually

1200
01:06:57,080 --> 01:06:59,440
Speaker 5: couldn't fill his gas tank because he hadn't had a

1201
01:06:59,440 --> 01:07:02,640
Speaker 5: paycheck to commute, right, which when you put two and

1202
01:07:02,640 --> 01:07:05,760
Speaker 5: two together, is completely obvious. But that's what gas price

1203
01:07:05,840 --> 01:07:07,760
Speaker 5: I mean, these are I passed the gas station of

1204
01:07:07,760 --> 01:07:10,720
Speaker 5: the sport is like five twenty uh and those are

1205
01:07:10,840 --> 01:07:14,760
Speaker 5: levels where obviously, I mean, gas prices are always a

1206
01:07:15,120 --> 01:07:17,520
Speaker 5: persistent problem for the American people, but it's.

1207
01:07:17,360 --> 01:07:19,320
Speaker 4: Something they talked about in Cube. A lot people didn't

1208
01:07:19,600 --> 01:07:20,880
Speaker 4: have the gas to get to work.

1209
01:07:21,880 --> 01:07:26,840
Speaker 5: And Trump has always, always, like with the market, tied

1210
01:07:26,920 --> 01:07:30,760
Speaker 5: his political success to things like gas prices and the

1211
01:07:30,760 --> 01:07:34,560
Speaker 5: stock markets. So maybe that explains whatever he's going to

1212
01:07:34,600 --> 01:07:37,480
Speaker 5: say tonight. We don't know yet. But the pressures are

1213
01:07:37,560 --> 01:07:40,439
Speaker 5: obvious probably to anybody outside. When they're obvious people in DC,

1214
01:07:40,920 --> 01:07:43,720
Speaker 5: you know they're bad. When when Washington is talking about

1215
01:07:43,800 --> 01:07:46,080
Speaker 5: the economic pressures, you know they're bad.

1216
01:07:46,240 --> 01:07:48,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, And airlines are canceling a bunch of flights because

1217
01:07:50,440 --> 01:07:52,960
Speaker 4: in order to like, you know, they let's say they

1218
01:07:52,960 --> 01:07:56,080
Speaker 4: sold a plane load full of tickets at three hundred

1219
01:07:56,080 --> 01:08:00,320
Speaker 4: bucks when jet fuel prices were what they were back

1220
01:08:00,320 --> 01:08:04,040
Speaker 4: in February. Now, to operate that flight, they might lose

1221
01:08:04,040 --> 01:08:06,200
Speaker 4: a million dollars. So they're like, you know what, I

1222
01:08:06,240 --> 01:08:08,160
Speaker 4: don't think we want to lose a million dollars. Now,

1223
01:08:08,160 --> 01:08:10,840
Speaker 4: there's laws about whether or not they can actually do that.

1224
01:08:11,440 --> 01:08:15,040
Speaker 4: You guarantee they're combing through every possible mechanism they can

1225
01:08:15,080 --> 01:08:17,720
Speaker 4: to say, oh, it's not because of the that we're

1226
01:08:17,720 --> 01:08:20,800
Speaker 4: losing money on this flight. It's because of something we

1227
01:08:20,840 --> 01:08:22,880
Speaker 4: didn't foresee. Don't whatever it is, don't.

1228
01:08:22,720 --> 01:08:23,160
Speaker 3: Worry about it.

1229
01:08:23,280 --> 01:08:25,760
Speaker 4: You just like, just hope your flight's canceled. But if

1230
01:08:25,760 --> 01:08:27,519
Speaker 4: you want to read, here's three hundred dollars credit. If

1231
01:08:27,520 --> 01:08:29,720
Speaker 4: you want to read book, here you go. It's going

1232
01:08:29,800 --> 01:08:31,840
Speaker 4: to cost you fifteen hundred dollars now