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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Shad Moment of the Action Network. Today is

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Speaker 1: our Tuesday Week fifteen episode where we break down the

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Speaker 1: entire slate of NFL games. We will also discuss our

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Speaker 1: exec decision and our Simon says, we're going to start

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Speaker 1: to narrow down the options for our Fave five to

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Speaker 1: put it into the Favorite Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro

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Speaker 1: Football Pick Them Contest this weekend. We went two and

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Speaker 1: three this past week. We won with the Dolphins and

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Speaker 1: the Vikings, losing in predictable ways with the Chiefs who

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Speaker 1: made it another cardiac win but didn't cover, and we

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Speaker 1: lost in a predictable way with the Browns who tumbled

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Speaker 1: the way back to our opportunities, and the Bears, who

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Speaker 1: we regretted. Hours before kickoff, Live from our Tommy John

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Speaker 1: Holmes Studios, I'm joined as always by my co host,

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Speaker 1: my companion, Mike cam Padre my BFF professional Better sign

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Speaker 1: in Hunt.

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Speaker 2: Hello, So I'm in Hello Chat. How are we doing?

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Speaker 1: Feel great? Feel motivated? Feel live, having a great day.

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Speaker 1: I'm really excited about our event this week will remind

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Speaker 1: people the details coming up. Also reminder The Favorites podcast

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Speaker 1: is presented by Bet three sixty five and now new

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Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign

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Speaker 1: up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars. Place a

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Speaker 1: bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used

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Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,

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Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five. Must be

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Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and

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Speaker 1: old are in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred

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Speaker 1: gambler or win in one hundred bets off in Iowa terms.

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Speaker 1: Condition restrictions apply. At last Simon, we do not have

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Speaker 1: any buys. I feel like last week, with all the

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Speaker 1: byes and the Thursday game being a game we loved,

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Speaker 1: we did not have a ton of games that we

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Speaker 1: could really sink our teeth into that we could agree

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Speaker 1: on for the final five. So we get a full

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Speaker 1: slate every weekend from now through the end of the year,

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Speaker 1: which I love. More options equals more opportunities. As we say,

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Speaker 1: we like optionality. Let's get to Week fifteen. First game.

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Speaker 1: This is the game for our Thursday night football watch party.

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Speaker 1: Super excited to see everyone at the Wicked Wolf in Philade.

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Speaker 1: The Rams scored this past weekend on nearly every drive

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Speaker 1: against a team that had just beat up on the Niners.

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Speaker 1: We're two and a half point favorites against the Rams

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Speaker 1: on Thursday nights. The Rams are the Niners won impressively

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Speaker 1: against a bad team. Who gets more credit simon in

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Speaker 1: the eyes of the public, the Rams for beating the Bills,

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Speaker 1: the Niners for beating up on the Bears.

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Speaker 2: I mean, obviously it's going to be the Rams. It

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Speaker 2: was arguably. I mean, we didn't break it down too

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Speaker 2: much because I didn't want to keep driving the hot

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Speaker 2: needle into Matt Mitchell here. But that was like one

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Speaker 2: of the best games ever. And it's someone like me

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Speaker 2: that bet the second half of the Bills. I mean,

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Speaker 2: obviously that'd be nice for the win, but I didn't care.

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Speaker 2: I just wanted to cover and Josh Allen did something

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Speaker 2: we talked though we'd never seen in the history of

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Speaker 2: what we do. Like, I think it was the greatest

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Speaker 2: fantasy football day in history. He's the first quarterback ever

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Speaker 2: have three rushing touchdowns three passing touchdowns. It was truly

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Speaker 2: the most insane game ever. That we get one a

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Speaker 2: year or every other year, it feels like, and that

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Speaker 2: was one that, like, you know, in the summertime, that's

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Speaker 2: gonna pop up on my NFL network. I'm gonna have

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Speaker 2: to sit down and watch that whole game just because

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Speaker 2: it was that kind of a game.

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Speaker 1: Let me put it in context. Josh Allen is the

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Speaker 1: second player in NFL history with three passing touchdowns three

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Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns. He joined Hall of Famer Otto Graham, who

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Speaker 1: did it in the NFL Championship game against the Lions

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Speaker 1: in nineteen fifty four.

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Speaker 2: Well he did against plumbers and painters. Pretty impressive what

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Speaker 2: Josh Allen did in this current stage. And yeah, we

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Speaker 2: talked about that line. They opened at three. It went

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Speaker 2: away obviously, and this line opened at I believe three

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Speaker 2: for the Rams, and it went down right, It went

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Speaker 2: down to two when we were doing our show live

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Speaker 2: on Sunday, I kind of already gave it away to

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Speaker 2: people that no matter what, if this was gonna be

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Speaker 2: under three, I was gonna be on the forty nine ers.

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Speaker 2: It was just it's gonna be an overreaction to the Rams,

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Speaker 2: and it's also going to be value on this forty

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Speaker 2: nine ers team. Now as he here to say that,

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Speaker 2: I'm not, I'm not as confident as I was Sunday night,

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Speaker 2: because even today I just read they still don't know

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Speaker 2: if Trent William's gonna be back. And you know, clearly

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Speaker 2: that didn't matter against that Bears team, right because they

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Speaker 2: were we joked about they already had three hundred yards

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Speaker 2: when the Bears had nine yards, Like that guy.

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Speaker 1: I know, Simon. It was three hundred and nineteen yards

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Speaker 1: to four yards in the first half. The Bears had

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Speaker 1: five punts, five punts, four yards.

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Speaker 2: So on one side, we have a defense that showed

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Speaker 2: up for the forty nine ers. On the other side the

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Speaker 2: Rams offense that showed up. But we talked about this

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Speaker 2: Rams team, they've just struggled against the run all season

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Speaker 2: and that's kind of been their achilles hill all season,

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Speaker 2: even in that game against the Bills, they did okay

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Speaker 2: against the run, but overall, obviously we just talk about

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Speaker 2: their defense. Gave up six touchdowns to just one individual

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Speaker 2: and Josh Allen. So there's clearly ways this fortnit single

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Speaker 2: bible attack them. We've seen it before too, where they

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Speaker 2: just for some reason McVeigh and his team they let

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Speaker 2: down this spot, especially when they're on the road against

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Speaker 2: this forty nine ers team. So yeah, you can see

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Speaker 2: right now in the action app it's all the money,

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Speaker 2: all the tickets right now right are coming on this

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Speaker 2: Rams team. Not that shocking. So if you miss the two,

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Speaker 2: you could be patient, maybe hope it gets their game.

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Speaker 2: But I knew the professionals are gonna be on this

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Speaker 2: forty nine ers side, and that's what we're seeing right

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Speaker 2: this soon was just touched two, went back up to

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Speaker 2: two and a half. That that feels like where it's

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Speaker 2: going to go for the kickoff right two and a

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Speaker 2: half or three, depending what the book needs here. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I'm excited that we have a good game for a

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Speaker 2: watch party because we were joking two weeks ago it's

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Speaker 2: like if these got these teams are banged up, this

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Speaker 2: might be an absolutely dud Now cut them into it.

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Speaker 2: Coming into this game, It's like, Wow, this is a

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Speaker 2: really good game that one of these teams, if they

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Speaker 2: lose it, their their playoff treams are pretty much done.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, lineup for a good one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. I lean Niners, Ileana Night Home teams. I leen

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Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan against Sean McVay. He's had his number multiple

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Speaker 1: times over the past few years, so I still like.

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Speaker 1: I'm with you. I like the Niners if it's under three.

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Speaker 1: The Trent Williams thing is the one thing I was

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Speaker 1: trying to get intell on yesterday. I could not get

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Speaker 1: anything confirmed or affirmative that he would be playing, So

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Speaker 1: that is the one thing that that is a little

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Speaker 1: bit scary. Totally agree with you on that. Here's what's

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Speaker 1: interesting to me, Well, actually I want to get to

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Speaker 1: that when we get to the Eagles game. Quick reminder,

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Speaker 1: don't forget last reminder. Our free Favorite Podcast event is

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Speaker 1: this Thursday our SVP. It's an exclusive live episode performance

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Speaker 1: along with free drinks and good times, will be taking

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Speaker 1: place at the Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia. Me

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Speaker 1: and Simon. Evan Abrams is going to be there. Matt

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Speaker 1: Mitchell is going to be there. The event starts at six,

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Speaker 1: we'll record at seven. Everything leads into Thursday night football

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Speaker 1: between these rams at Niners to RSVP. Check out the

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Speaker 1: link in the podcast or YouTube episode description. Simon and

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Speaker 1: I will tweet it out as well. If you are attending,

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Speaker 1: check your ring boxes foreign email we'll send out with

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Speaker 1: more details. You will get VIP status if you're an

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Speaker 1: active bet three six ' five user. Be sure to

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Speaker 1: have an account. Make your deposit if you haven't yet.

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Speaker 1: Free favorites, swag prizes from our buddies at Tommy John,

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Speaker 1: possibly a warm embrace from me. Space is limited. We'll

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Speaker 1: see you in Philly. Listen. It's an exclusive episode, Simon.

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Speaker 1: The other day, I'm on the phone with my dad

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Speaker 1: and he was asking about the event. You know, he's

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Speaker 1: in Chicago, and he's like, so, well, I listened to

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Speaker 1: the show after. I'm like, no, it's just for the

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Speaker 1: people who are there. He goes, so I can't listen

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Speaker 1: to it. I'm like, Dad, I'm telling you, unless you're

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Speaker 1: coming to Philly, you are not going to hear this.

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Speaker 1: And he didn't bite. So my dad will not be there.

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Speaker 1: I might not even be able to get my older

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Speaker 1: son there. He's in the middle of finals Atdrexel. He's like,

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Speaker 1: I'll see if I can get there. That's how much

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Speaker 1: my family cares about what's going on.

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Speaker 2: Man, Chad's gonna be giving away a hugs people, I've

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Speaker 2: probably giving away some cash. That's the difference. We are.

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Speaker 2: No hugs for me, just cash.

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Speaker 1: Which would you rather have? What is better than a

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Speaker 1: warm embrace? Cold cash? It doesn't last, but a nice

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Speaker 1: feeling to know that you're loved and seen and appreciated.

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Speaker 1: That Booy's confidence. That's how my parent Dallas at Carolina.

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Speaker 1: Carolina is minus two and a half right now, Simon, Look,

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Speaker 1: this is the team that I think. This team put

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Speaker 1: us on a downward spiral to start the year. We

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Speaker 1: nearly turned our listeners against us. They're finally finally consistently

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Speaker 1: playing like the team we expected them to be. On

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Speaker 1: Sunday Night, they were one point dogs to the Cowboys

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Speaker 1: right before we went on the show. That line flipped quickly.

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Speaker 1: It was one one and a half up until two

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Speaker 1: hours ago. Now they're two and a half point favorites.

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Speaker 1: You said you had this as as Carolina minus two.

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Speaker 1: For the record, this is the first time the Panthers

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Speaker 1: are favored in a game in almost exactly two years.

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Speaker 1: It was like mid December two years ago, twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: Can you name the team they were favored against and

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Speaker 1: what happened? Do you have any idea.

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Speaker 2: In twenty twenty two?

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Speaker 1: December eighteen, twenty twenty two, was.

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Speaker 2: It at home against Derek Carr and the Saints.

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Speaker 1: At home against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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Speaker 2: Wow?

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Speaker 1: Classic raw Ron Mike Road underdog Steelers went out right,

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Speaker 1: because that's what Mike timlines. So here's my question for

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Speaker 1: real though, now, like, is the value on our favorite team,

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Speaker 1: who we've been betting every single week the past month

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Speaker 1: finally gone?

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Speaker 2: I don't think it's gone because, like I think I

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Speaker 2: said on the show, either I had it two or three.

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Speaker 2: But like this, this number here feels right. When it opened,

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Speaker 2: we talked about that was way too low. Even when

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Speaker 2: it was one, it was still showing value on the Paranthers.

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Speaker 2: But the issue is we went from like last week

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Speaker 2: I had that number ten, so we were getting I

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Speaker 2: mean it closed up fourteen. That's four points of value.

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Speaker 2: That was really extreme. Where this at half a point,

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Speaker 2: it's like we'll force it in if we need to

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Speaker 2: because we, like we talked about, we love them, and

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Speaker 2: clearly they're playing as a better team right now than

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Speaker 2: the Cowboys in a lot of ways. And you know,

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Speaker 2: if this gets to three though, it's like, Okay, at

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Speaker 2: what point is this a by a low spot on

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Speaker 2: a Cowboys team that you know, if they didn't muff

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Speaker 2: that punt wherever that will happen. And in that game

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Speaker 2: of Cincinnati, they probably would have I mean, I don't

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Speaker 2: know about loot like winning that game, but at least

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Speaker 2: when I covered, they probably would have got a field

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Speaker 2: goal and then maybe on a last touchdown by the Bengals.

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Speaker 2: But still, it's like, you know, you're right, there's a

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Speaker 2: point where we need to sell on them, and this

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Speaker 2: might be it because the Lions moved so much at

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Speaker 2: this point. So I'm doing my best not to get

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Speaker 2: sucked in on it because it's like we fell a

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Speaker 2: little bit of attachment to this team right now because

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Speaker 2: you've just been so good to us and they've done

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Speaker 2: exactly what we thought they would be this season, which

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Speaker 2: is a team that can move the ball on the offense.

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Speaker 2: You know, now it's like you just said, it's getting

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Speaker 2: close to minus thraet a lot of books. Most books

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Speaker 2: are showing two and a half. So I'm assuming by

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Speaker 2: Thursday show this is at three and it fits three

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Speaker 2: and a half in contest. I mean, that's gonna be

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Speaker 2: very tempting for us to take the Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: I just can't believe that the rest of the sports

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Speaker 1: betting world has caught up to the Panthers. Fifteen weeks later,

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Speaker 1: they've caught up to the Panthers. Turns out we were right.

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Speaker 1: Fifteen weeks later, we're one hundred percent right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's better to be earlier than late, right, Chad.

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Speaker 1: I guess so, except when you lose on the Panthers

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Speaker 1: for six straight weeks and you know, turned your entire

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Speaker 1: season upside down. Kansas City at Cleveland? How coincidental Cleveland

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Speaker 1: is a four and a half point home dog. How

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Speaker 1: coincidental that the two teams who burned us on Sunday

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Speaker 1: are playing each other. The line opened at six and

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Speaker 1: a half. We saw it on Sunday night, now down

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Speaker 1: to four and a half. We said this would happen, right,

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Speaker 1: We identified the game six and a half was too high.

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Speaker 1: Jamis is not justin Herbert. The Browns O line is

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Speaker 1: not the pass blocking unit that the Chargers is, but

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Speaker 1: I do think their pass rush is much better than

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Speaker 1: the Chargers. And we've now seen every every single week

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Speaker 1: how bad the Chiefs offensive line really is, especially their

255
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Speaker 1: edge blockers. Like it didn't matter who was in there

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Speaker 1: on Sunday night, DJ Humphrees or anybody else. Like the

257
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Speaker 1: Chiefs were only effective when they went to the short

258
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Speaker 1: passing game, right, that was the only time they could

259
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Speaker 1: really move the ball. And like at this point, between

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Speaker 1: the holding penalties, the false stars, the formation penalties, the

261
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Speaker 1: Chiefs O line is a huge liability and you can

262
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Speaker 1: see it in Patrick Mahomes's face, Like, I don't know

263
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Speaker 1: if you have different thoughts on this game than I

264
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Speaker 1: do about the Browns. But like, other than the fact

265
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Speaker 1: the line has moved two points, we've lost some value.

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Speaker 1: Still feels like you're taking the Browns at four and

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Speaker 1: a half.

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Speaker 2: You're not wrong, but like the same spot with last week,

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Speaker 2: eventually we're all going to get caught and the value

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Speaker 2: is going to shift the other way. And that's how

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Speaker 2: I felt last with a Chargers game. It's like the

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Speaker 2: Charger were down there number one receiver and the number

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Speaker 2: one running back and basically put together two drives, got

274
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Speaker 2: two touchdowns back to back, and our bet was just

275
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Speaker 2: because that's how this this this Chief's team is right

276
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Speaker 2: now that you're right, like they're they're a field goal heavy,

277
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Speaker 2: Like there's a lot of times on their drive they

278
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Speaker 2: just things fall apart because of that pressure you talked about.

279
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Speaker 2: They just have such a bad offensive line right now

280
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Speaker 2: that yeah, come playoff time. I mean, there are people

281
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Speaker 2: really gonna bet against this Chiefs team. I think everyone's

282
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Speaker 2: got the reaction from last year. But right now as

283
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Speaker 2: we sit here, I agree with you chat. It's like,

284
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Speaker 2: who are this Chief's team to get over three points against?

285
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Speaker 2: Basically anybody with a pulse? And the Cleveland Browns, as

286
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Speaker 2: bad as they've looked, they've had a pulse. I mean,

287
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Speaker 2: they've just been unlucky. It feels like these last couple

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Speaker 2: of weeks. So maybe we just avoid this game, like

289
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Speaker 2: take a break from betting the Browns or the Chiefs

290
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Speaker 2: just because it's yeah, it's two bad weeks in a

291
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Speaker 2: row from this Browns team, and you know the Chiefs.

292
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Speaker 2: It's on the historical run, right, like we were betting

293
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Speaker 2: a lot of stuff we're betting too. Last week it

294
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Speaker 2: was the same thing where I understood your position on

295
00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,720
Speaker 2: the Giants, like eventually the book's gonna catch up to it.

296
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Speaker 2: They not covered in seven straight games, I think up

297
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Speaker 2: till last week's point. Same with this Chiefs team. It's

298
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Speaker 2: the longest stint of Andy Read's career, seven straight no covers.

299
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Speaker 2: I saw it might have been. Evan had some crazy

300
00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:13,440
Speaker 2: stat about there's never been a team in the Wildcard

301
00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:15,800
Speaker 2: air since in the Super Bowl era that's won the

302
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Speaker 2: Super Bowl that has lost seven straight against the spread.

303
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Speaker 2: So once again, the Chiefs are going against something historical

304
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Speaker 2: we've never seen before, and it's the Mahomes factor. Though

305
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Speaker 2: it's just like even that game they were gonna not cover.

306
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Speaker 2: You knew they were gonna win, right, That's how I go.

307
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Speaker 1: So it's like, well, because when they get down to

308
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Speaker 1: four minutes and they've got the ball, yeah, they know

309
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Speaker 1: exactly how to play it, and they're playing college where

310
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Speaker 1: it's like, you know, he he was teasing a little

311
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Speaker 1: bit like they'd be better off if they scored a

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Speaker 1: touchdown unless they can get the clock, and I'm like,

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Speaker 1: they're not going to score a touchdown. They're going to

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Speaker 1: do exactly what they're supposed to do. They're going to

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Speaker 1: run the clock down, and they look Jim Harbaugh taking

316
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Speaker 1: all three timeouts before the two minute warning sort of

317
00:17:02,360 --> 00:17:05,199
Speaker 1: gave them that opportunity and took the cover completely off

318
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Speaker 1: the table. I knew we were going to lose that game.

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Speaker 1: I knew it.

320
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Speaker 2: Yeah, and they doinked it through. So it's that's just

321
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Speaker 2: the season that's been for this Chiefs. They're just different

322
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Speaker 2: than anything we've seen before. And yeah, you're our initial

323
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Speaker 2: read on taking the six and a half obviously was right.

324
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Speaker 2: It's a lot of books were moving to four. So

325
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Speaker 2: if you do, like Leland grabbed the four and a

326
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Speaker 2: half because I'm gonna chat, I could see this easily

327
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Speaker 2: getting down to three and a half, just because the

328
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Speaker 2: public's totally out on this team, and I think professional betters, no,

329
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Speaker 2: they don't need a rush to take this Chiefs team

330
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Speaker 2: that the snummery will keep coming down.

331
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Speaker 1: It does feel a little bit. I agree with you.

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Speaker 1: We've had the same feeling about the Steelers, which we'll

333
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Speaker 1: talk about with the Eagles. Right, how much can we

334
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Speaker 1: keep pressing our luck right?

335
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Speaker 2: Because it always goes the other way.

336
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Speaker 1: We know that it will. Like we talk about these

337
00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:57,720
Speaker 1: things they're at their best sixty two sixty three percent,

338
00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:03,200
Speaker 1: which means three point eight times out of ten you're

339
00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:06,080
Speaker 1: losing that bet. And we just haven't found the windows

340
00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:09,679
Speaker 1: where those bets are losing yet. And so it is

341
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Speaker 1: a little bit scary to like keep going to that

342
00:18:12,320 --> 00:18:16,119
Speaker 1: well again and again again, or we're doing what you

343
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Speaker 1: tell us we're always doing. We're just overthinking this shit,

344
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Speaker 1: and like it's under three, it's under three. It's it's

345
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Speaker 1: if it's over three, you bet against Mahomes. If it's

346
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Speaker 1: under three, you bet on Mahomes. Maybe maybe we're being idiots,

347
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Speaker 1: who knows, but that's that's the rule. Let's recap the

348
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Speaker 1: results of week fourteen are week thirteen. No, let's recap

349
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Speaker 1: the results of week fourteen. In the Favorites Podcast one

350
00:18:45,119 --> 00:18:49,400
Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Contest Our Week fourteen

351
00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:55,719
Speaker 1: first place winner d Winsenberg and unprecedented three entries went

352
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Speaker 1: five and zero and nailed the Monday night football tiebreaker.

353
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Speaker 1: But d Winsenberg submitted first, so that is the winner.

354
00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:07,600
Speaker 1: He or she is the winner of our maximum two

355
00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:13,320
Speaker 1: thousand dollars weekly prize. Incredible performance and as always, our

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00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,800
Speaker 1: producer Matt Mitchell has selected his Producer's Cup award to

357
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Speaker 1: the entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest.

358
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Speaker 2: Have you had about the lordsome loser? He's a Louisa,

359
00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:28,159
Speaker 2: but he still kids on try.

360
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Speaker 1: This week's Producer Cup goes to Sean LP Curtis, who

361
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Speaker 1: went ZH to five and missed the tiebreaker by three

362
00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:43,400
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy five yards. Sean, please email our producer

363
00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:48,040
Speaker 1: at podcasts at Actionnetwork dot com to claim your prize.

364
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Speaker 1: Mammy Houston. Houston's a three and a half point favorite

365
00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:58,080
Speaker 1: at bet three sixty five, and we'll say the line

366
00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:01,520
Speaker 1: moved from two and a half to three on Sunday,

367
00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:04,280
Speaker 1: move back to two and a half at most books,

368
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Speaker 1: but it is still minus three at PET three six five.

369
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Speaker 1: This this was a game yesterday, Simon. I don't know

370
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Speaker 1: if you felt this when you were when you were

371
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Speaker 1: doing your film study. But as I was doing my research,

372
00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:20,679
Speaker 1: I kept looking for reasons to like the Texans, and like,

373
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:25,639
Speaker 1: eventually I said to myself, do I like the Dolphins

374
00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:31,399
Speaker 1: at two and a half? And it seemed like the

375
00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:34,080
Speaker 1: wise guys do because they move the line from three

376
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Speaker 1: to two and a half.

377
00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:38,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say the wise guys to me seem

378
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:41,200
Speaker 2: like they like Miami at three and then so much

379
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:44,800
Speaker 2: at two and a half. So I read your sentiment there. Yeah,

380
00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:46,440
Speaker 2: I'm not having a tough time this one too, because

381
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 2: I just think the Texans are just a better team.

382
00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:53,400
Speaker 2: I trust them more, honestly. At this point, Miami, we've

383
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:55,200
Speaker 2: seen them beat up on bad teams and then kind

384
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:59,359
Speaker 2: of struggle or be inconsistent against you know, good components.

385
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:02,200
Speaker 2: And you know that that was the type of game

386
00:21:02,280 --> 00:21:05,879
Speaker 2: last week that we talked about. Like Tua, he he

387
00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:08,760
Speaker 2: is pretty special and we've seen this season now he's

388
00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 2: had a couple of games where he's willed his team

389
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 2: to a couple of victories and you know, like a

390
00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:15,920
Speaker 2: game we probably have took too lightly we talked about

391
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,199
Speaker 2: was that Bill's game. He had his team in that game,

392
00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:20,400
Speaker 2: a game they usually get blown out in that they

393
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,560
Speaker 2: only lost by six. He upset this this Rams team.

394
00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 2: It looks like a juggernaut and you know, again a

395
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:30,720
Speaker 2: late touchdown score by him. So yeah, it's a tough one. Chat.

396
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 2: I'm with you. It's like at three, I'm seeing a

397
00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:35,480
Speaker 2: couple of public books right now and are still at three.

398
00:21:36,040 --> 00:21:38,480
Speaker 2: That seems like, that's right, Like this number feels right

399
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:40,439
Speaker 2: at that number, and at that number, I would tick Miami,

400
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:42,440
Speaker 2: but it's not what I'm really banged the table for

401
00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 2: as we sit here right now.

402
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was just surprised. Sometimes I just like the validation.

403
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,640
Speaker 1: I'll just be honest, Like you do the work during

404
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 1: the day, you form an opinion, and all of a

405
00:21:54,560 --> 00:22:00,200
Speaker 1: sudden you're like, oh god, so I actually like this team. Yeah,

406
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,719
Speaker 1: And then I saw the number move After all that,

407
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:07,679
Speaker 1: I'm like, wow, maybe I do like this team. Just

408
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:11,359
Speaker 1: for clarity, Like what I saw was Miami's red zone

409
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 1: offense is top ten. I was surprised it was as

410
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 1: high because I feel like, and this is just bias, right,

411
00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 1: We've talked about this. The Dolphins' offense is just not

412
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 1: very physical, and so they get down in the red zone,

413
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:28,360
Speaker 1: you think they're going to struggle, but it turns out

414
00:22:28,600 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 1: they don't. Maybe we just felt this way because of

415
00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:34,359
Speaker 1: how they played against the Jets. Red zone defense is

416
00:22:34,400 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 1: top six, and so we know Miami will be able

417
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 1: to dink in Duncan's way down the field against a

418
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 1: middling Texans defense this year. So I just sort of

419
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 1: thought I think they can move the ball and at

420
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,560
Speaker 1: three it's probably the right side. But agree with you,

421
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,439
Speaker 1: two and a half not the flavor for me.

422
00:23:00,560 --> 00:23:01,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I don't like.

423
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 1: The Texans at two and at like, I don't think

424
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 1: I like the Texans anymore.

425
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:07,440
Speaker 2: Well, that's fair, but that's what's worrying me a little

426
00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 2: bit is that maybe we've gone too far. And just

427
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:11,920
Speaker 2: because I think you agree that there's just something off

428
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,440
Speaker 2: about their offense and their offensive line right now, and

429
00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 2: like that CJ just has not looked the same this year,

430
00:23:17,400 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 2: same same thing we had problem with Jordan Love, that

431
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:23,360
Speaker 2: just they're they're kind of going through that year too slump, right,

432
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 2: And we've seen it this season where Jordan Love looks

433
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 2: like he's coming out the other side of it. I

434
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,000
Speaker 2: still know where CJ is at. He just has not

435
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:31,200
Speaker 2: looked in rhythm all season.

436
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 1: I just want to make sure we're both agreeing that

437
00:23:33,760 --> 00:23:35,800
Speaker 1: there's no value in this game, that it's not going

438
00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 1: to be a game that we particularly like. I don't

439
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:39,720
Speaker 1: see it moving out of this two and a half

440
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:42,399
Speaker 1: to three range. And so I want to make sure

441
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:46,480
Speaker 1: that you and I are clearly communicating, because I think

442
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:48,919
Speaker 1: we crossed wires on the Panthers and ended up not

443
00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 1: putting them in the contest when we both kind of

444
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:53,520
Speaker 1: thought we should because we were waiting on a certain

445
00:23:53,600 --> 00:23:58,040
Speaker 1: number and that might not have been the case. Fair Simon.

446
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 1: We can hear the crackling of the ulogs, we can

447
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:07,199
Speaker 1: taste the eggnog. The holiday season is upon us, and

448
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:12,760
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449
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:16,000
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450
00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:20,520
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451
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452
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:29,440
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453
00:24:29,520 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 1: all year long. Simon, why will you be giving the

454
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:35,520
Speaker 1: gift of Tommy John this season?

455
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 2: It's the gift that lasts.

456
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,760
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457
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458
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459
00:24:48,720 --> 00:24:54,359
Speaker 1: John dot com slash Favorites. Cincinnati is a five point

460
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,719
Speaker 1: favorite on the road at Tennessee went from five to

461
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:01,200
Speaker 1: four and a half back up to five. The Bengals

462
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 1: were lucky to escape with a win last night. There's

463
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 1: such an incomplete football team, Like you watched Joe Burrow.

464
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 1: If he can throw it to Jamar Chase, he's great,

465
00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:17,119
Speaker 1: and like they can't really run the ball, so they

466
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 1: don't get any play action. They can't stop the run.

467
00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:24,679
Speaker 1: The Cowboys slashed their way through. Since he's defense some

468
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 1: Monday night football. The problem is that Titans are bad

469
00:25:29,840 --> 00:25:33,639
Speaker 1: on offense in just about every category as the Bengals

470
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:37,400
Speaker 1: are on defense. Bengals are thirtieth in red zone as

471
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:40,920
Speaker 1: a defense, Titans offense is twenty seven. The Bengals can't

472
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:44,560
Speaker 1: stop teams on third down. The Titans can't convert. Bengals

473
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:48,080
Speaker 1: are thirtieth in points allowed. Titans are thirtieth in points scored,

474
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:52,200
Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. You get my drift,

475
00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:56,520
Speaker 1: my instinct, and I don't think this is a game

476
00:25:56,520 --> 00:26:00,760
Speaker 1: we're gonna play. I lean Titans, so I think their

477
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 1: defense may emphasize, may be able to stop the Bengals,

478
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:10,960
Speaker 1: and will let us may be able to sprout surprise

479
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:14,160
Speaker 1: their creptastic defensive backfield.

480
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with everything you said. It feels like

481
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 2: this is a game where you throw out the numbers,

482
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:22,080
Speaker 2: and it's simply are you here to fade the public

483
00:26:22,119 --> 00:26:25,440
Speaker 2: and bet with the sports books because Cincinnati Bengals will

484
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 2: be the number one t's team their money line with

485
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:30,680
Speaker 2: every parlay. Everyone everyone knows they got a whale one

486
00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 2: last night. Like we just talked about that. Not that

487
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:35,160
Speaker 2: Dallas is out playing them. It feels like they were

488
00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 2: in some in some aspects of that game. And the

489
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,400
Speaker 2: biggest one was Joe Burrow was just getting hit after

490
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 2: hit after hit, every drop, but even after his completions,

491
00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 2: he was getting rocked. And you know, the refs missing

492
00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 2: brutal calls, like hits to the helmets, him getting face masks.

493
00:26:49,840 --> 00:26:52,320
Speaker 2: The refs were just awful last night. Let him get

494
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 2: beat up. We saw they put it on a sleeve

495
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 2: on his knee, might have been midway through the fourth quarter.

496
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 2: Like this, this man is just getting abused. And you know,

497
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:05,880
Speaker 2: like you just said, this matchup, it's not the best

498
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 2: for Tennessee because of what their strength throwed defensively, but

499
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,359
Speaker 2: you're right, like I just have such little faith right

500
00:27:14,400 --> 00:27:18,680
Speaker 2: now and Will Levis and this offense in Tennessee, you know,

501
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 2: they basically had a gift last week and they just

502
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 2: could not capitalize on all their opportunities against that Jaguars

503
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,360
Speaker 2: team and they lost it because they're just a bad

504
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:29,159
Speaker 2: team that feels like they're poorly coached. And yeah, this

505
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,080
Speaker 2: is another game where it really is It's just like

506
00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 2: your Giants bell last week. Chad, You're you're simply playing

507
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 2: the number, playing the laws of averages, and this number

508
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 2: should be three, three and a half, like you just said,

509
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:44,679
Speaker 2: it's five and most books, yes there's value there are

510
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 2: we really going to force this one in because we

511
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 2: have been betting ugly dogs and like we talked about,

512
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:51,360
Speaker 2: we've just been getting burned this year by ugly dogs

513
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 2: and against superior teams. Are is this really superior team?

514
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:58,400
Speaker 2: And the Sense team, like I feel like get nailed

515
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 2: to just say how they got lucky. So it's a

516
00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:02,040
Speaker 2: tough one. Chat Like, I really want to take it,

517
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:04,520
Speaker 2: but I'm having a lot of reservations here just because

518
00:28:04,560 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 2: it is Will love us and he's just burned us

519
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:09,120
Speaker 2: so many times this year.

520
00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 1: I feel like the worm has turned a little bit

521
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:17,480
Speaker 1: for us the past few weeks. In betting the ugly dogs.

522
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:17,879
Speaker 2: We only bet two dogs. Last week we went oh

523
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:18,199
Speaker 2: and two.

524
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, but but in the week before that. Definitely.

525
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just saying we've with Justin, we've been be

526
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:27,600
Speaker 2: many more favorites and that's the only thing covering for us.

527
00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 2: He's fucking dogs, man, I've just been killing us.

528
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 1: Isn't that insane? Why do I feel like things have

529
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:34,200
Speaker 1: been going better for us?

530
00:28:34,400 --> 00:28:36,600
Speaker 2: I know we've had winning weeks, but like that last

531
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 2: week was just the is the typical? Is like our

532
00:28:38,600 --> 00:28:41,920
Speaker 2: stupid favorites came through and our dogs we love were

533
00:28:41,960 --> 00:28:44,000
Speaker 2: just dead dead on arrival.

534
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 1: Browns were never dead. Browns were never dead. That my god, James,

535
00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:51,560
Speaker 1: You're always in it, which might bring us right back

536
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:55,360
Speaker 1: to betting. Jamis plus four and a half against the

537
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,320
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs. I don't know, there's a part of

538
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:06,240
Speaker 1: me that is feeling confident esque on the Titans.

539
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 2: Because you know it's the spot where you're supposed to hit.

540
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:09,520
Speaker 2: So yeah, maybe Thursday all will have more confidence. But

541
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:11,520
Speaker 2: it's here right now. This is I don't know if

542
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 2: you're making exact but I'm not making a sign and says,

543
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 2: oh god.

544
00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:18,320
Speaker 1: No, not even close. Also at risk of Matt Mitchell

545
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:22,600
Speaker 1: grinching me, just being an asshole if I choose a

546
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 1: team that I feel really strongly about that. He thinks

547
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 1: people are gonna hate. Look, but I do think you

548
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:30,560
Speaker 1: bet on the Saints here, like the it's like it was,

549
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 1: it's seven and a half. Yeah, it's moved to seven.

550
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 1: It's clearly a wise guy could be you, for all

551
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 1: I know, No Saints.

552
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 2: I'm on Washington. Surprisingly.

553
00:29:40,680 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 1: Wow, So Derek Carr has a concussion where a fracture

554
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 1: of risk are both Yah, Taysom Hill is out. Yes,

555
00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:50,160
Speaker 1: that is their whole offense. Yes, there is one trend

556
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 1: sort of fading the team that is covering by five

557
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:59,080
Speaker 1: points or more. When you do that, you win at

558
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 1: a fifty six percent clip. That's what you can do

559
00:30:01,360 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 1: against the Commanders. There's one other game that fits that

560
00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:08,200
Speaker 1: this week. But I actually I don't have a strong

561
00:30:08,240 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 1: opinion on this game. I'm curious to hear why you

562
00:30:10,080 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 1: why you feel strongly about the Commanders.

563
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 2: Uh, it's honestly just because how they performed against bad

564
00:30:15,360 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 2: teams this season. They're a team we talk all the time.

565
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:22,400
Speaker 2: There's certain teams that you know that just their offense,

566
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 2: the way they are, they just roll teams once they

567
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 2: get rolling, right. The Commanders feel like that team that

568
00:30:26,800 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 2: you know, they had a brutal stretch there. You know,

569
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:32,440
Speaker 2: he was banged up. They got really lucky on that

570
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 2: failed Mary or Hail Miller should say. But you know,

571
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,880
Speaker 2: they played the Giants, I think they covered by five,

572
00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 2: and then they had a run of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Dallas,

573
00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 2: and then they just smoked that Tennessee team. Right Like

574
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 2: when we look at the score, it was yeah, forty

575
00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 2: two to nineteen when they played Tennessee. Now they went

576
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 2: in a bye week, So I'm with you that, Like

577
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:54,320
Speaker 2: if this was a couple of weeks ago when I

578
00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 2: still had worries about Jane Daniels being healthy and there's

579
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,440
Speaker 2: you know a lot of the stuff we talk just

580
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 2: the regression we expected from that offense. We've seen now though,

581
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 2: when they can run the ball and get things moving

582
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:09,720
Speaker 2: and they're healthy, they're just a really high powered offense.

583
00:31:09,760 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 2: So yeah, this could be the game where I'm you know,

584
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 2: walking into it and somehow New Orleans defense does step

585
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:17,719
Speaker 2: up here. But I think you're in Agreeans. If they

586
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:20,000
Speaker 2: put up twenty one and it's midway through the third quarter,

587
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,080
Speaker 2: I just can't see a world where Desmond Ridder Whoever's

588
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 2: quarterback for the Saints can come back from being down,

589
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:28,479
Speaker 2: let alone seven points, ten points or anything like that.

590
00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:31,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, just it feels like a type of game

591
00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:34,400
Speaker 2: where they just Washington rolls. And that's why they did

592
00:31:34,440 --> 00:31:36,080
Speaker 2: give us the seven and a half because they're just like, someone,

593
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 2: please come and bet the Saints team. We need this money.

594
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:41,160
Speaker 2: So it makes sense they'd move it now it's back down.

595
00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 2: Like you said, the professionals bet it. It's it's a game.

596
00:31:44,000 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 2: I'm happy to sit out.

597
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 1: I think you're confusing Spencer Rattler for Desmond Ridder. We

598
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 1: do have a huge Desmond Ridder spot.

599
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 2: Oh yes, yes, yes, yes, this week.

600
00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:56,959
Speaker 1: However, I think it's gonna be in a former team.

601
00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 1: You're right, Jay Hayner for the Saints who came in

602
00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 1: last week when when Derek Carr was hurt, and he's

603
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:05,520
Speaker 1: the guy who replaced Spencer Rattler when early in the

604
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 1: season when he was terrible. Yeah, I don't. I can't

605
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 1: argue with anything you're saying, other than you play the

606
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 1: bad team getting seven at home against the team that

607
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:23,040
Speaker 1: is going to be such a huge that. I mean,

608
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 1: it's it's the chalky. It might be the chalkiest play

609
00:32:26,120 --> 00:32:28,800
Speaker 1: on the board when we get down to it.

610
00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:30,720
Speaker 2: I had to look at Spot. They a Philly on

611
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,240
Speaker 2: deck next week. Like I I'm telling you, the old

612
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 2: school guys, they're going to hit this like you're saying, well,

613
00:32:35,280 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 2: it's New Orleans, Spot.

614
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:40,400
Speaker 1: I'm just school though. You know what you are. You're

615
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:44,280
Speaker 1: a new school You're a modern age gambler. You can

616
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 1: make adjustments. You don't. You don't have to be beholden

617
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 1: to old school trends. That's not how you roll, Simon.

618
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:56,840
Speaker 2: You're your own man now. I mean, obviously we never

619
00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,600
Speaker 2: get two world news here, but I'm feeling pretty good

620
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:01,880
Speaker 2: at my lene. At least my generation didn't try to

621
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 2: assassinate or president and had a hitman take out a

622
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 2: CEO of a health company. So millennials are doing good.

623
00:33:06,840 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 2: Gen Z on the other side, what the fuck is

624
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:10,880
Speaker 2: going on with gen Z Jets?

625
00:33:13,840 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 1: Jesus Christ, Simon. I guess my point is this feels

626
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:19,719
Speaker 1: like this feels like a spot to play the Saints

627
00:33:20,040 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 1: New York Jets at Jacksonville. Jacksonville plus three and a half.

628
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 1: You know what, The streak is over? The Jets were

629
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:34,280
Speaker 1: dogs this past week. Finally they're back to be in favorites.

630
00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:39,600
Speaker 1: Thank god, the world has come back to its senses.

631
00:33:40,000 --> 00:33:45,320
Speaker 1: It's spinning on its axis one more time. How do

632
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:51,160
Speaker 1: we handicap this game? Interim coach versus a lame duck coach,

633
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 1: backup QB versus an over the hill QB one QB

634
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:58,400
Speaker 1: who won a game he should have lost and Mac

635
00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:01,480
Speaker 1: Jones one QB he lost a game he should have won.

636
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:05,440
Speaker 1: In Ann Rogers, the numbers going up went from three

637
00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 1: to three and a half. Like somebody likes the Jets

638
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:09,640
Speaker 1: in this spot.

639
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:13,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the same group of professionals that have liked

640
00:34:13,520 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 2: them every week, and once again they're moving the number

641
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:17,959
Speaker 2: for us, and they're giving us value. Like I would

642
00:34:17,960 --> 00:34:19,399
Speaker 2: have been right there with I probably would have passed

643
00:34:19,400 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 2: on this the Jaguars coming off a win. But are

644
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:23,600
Speaker 2: we seeing a little pattern here with Mac Jones a

645
00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:24,360
Speaker 2: three and a half?

646
00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:25,080
Speaker 1: Yep?

647
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,000
Speaker 2: Like should we not overthinking and just take the three

648
00:34:27,000 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 2: and a half when they're When Mac Jones is playing

649
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 2: against a bad team, it seems like he's gonna keep

650
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,960
Speaker 2: us in it. Whether you know that Tennessee game, like

651
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:38,560
Speaker 2: they just did absolutely nothing for three quarters, they scored

652
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:40,799
Speaker 2: ten ten points in the fourth quarter and they won

653
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 2: that game outright, which is just crazy. I think no

654
00:34:43,600 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 2: points the entire game, Then the fourth quarter they scored

655
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:48,920
Speaker 2: ten points. You know, maybe am I overacting too much

656
00:34:48,960 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 2: for a divisional game? Could be that's fair, But the Jets,

657
00:34:55,920 --> 00:34:57,759
Speaker 2: I don't know. Even when we were losing Chad, like

658
00:34:57,760 --> 00:34:59,839
Speaker 2: we talked about last week, I never felt in doubt.

659
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:03,359
Speaker 2: I felt like the Jets were gonna Jets eventually. So

660
00:35:04,239 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 2: we'll bet this. Maybe we'll get slapped in the face

661
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:07,799
Speaker 2: and I might force us to put this in the

662
00:35:07,840 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 2: contest at three and a half, But it's like we're

663
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 2: getting a good number once again against an overvalued Jets

664
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:17,000
Speaker 2: team that they're in the same exact spizes as Jaguars team. Like,

665
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 2: at least we've seen the Jaguars team playing hard. This

666
00:35:20,320 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 2: Jets team's coming off you can't have a more deflating loss,

667
00:35:23,480 --> 00:35:26,439
Speaker 2: and now they're on you know, they're coming back home

668
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,880
Speaker 2: for this game where it's like I just can't even

669
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:30,879
Speaker 2: imagine the fans. The only thing that's gonna hesitation. Evan

670
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 2: had those amazing stats, but how much better Rogers has

671
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:35,919
Speaker 2: been at home than on the road, And that's coming

672
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 2: off his best road game of the season, Like it

673
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 2: was very bizarre. So yeah, I'm i'm I'm I'm happy

674
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:45,480
Speaker 2: to take the Jags of three and a half, but

675
00:35:45,520 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 2: if this was two and a half in contest, I

676
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:48,279
Speaker 2: just avoid.

677
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 1: This one hold on one sec because I want to

678
00:35:50,080 --> 00:35:54,239
Speaker 1: make sure isn't this game in the game is in Jacksonville.

679
00:35:55,120 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, sorry, sorry, that's what I meant. Though they're

680
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:58,880
Speaker 2: back to back road games. It's just I feel like

681
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 2: a brutal spot for this Jets team.

682
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:06,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, and also, you know what, they're a bad team,

683
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,440
Speaker 1: Like like we're gonna talk about this. I don't think

684
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:12,720
Speaker 1: there's two teams getting more attention for being bad teams

685
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:16,480
Speaker 1: this year than the Jets and the Bears. And it's

686
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:19,879
Speaker 1: stunning to me that these wise guys, whoever they are,

687
00:36:20,640 --> 00:36:24,200
Speaker 1: that can be your your assignment, simon. Find out who

688
00:36:24,280 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 1: the freaking the syndicate is better you.

689
00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:28,840
Speaker 2: And they're on it. Though they hit the six and

690
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 2: a half last week on the Jets literally.

691
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:33,440
Speaker 1: Later the first time, I know, But every other week.

692
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 2: They're fucking dancing in the book now because they were like, see,

693
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:38,439
Speaker 2: I knew it would come around evention. It's like, yeah,

694
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:39,800
Speaker 2: that's why I said though, they were just going to

695
00:36:39,920 --> 00:36:42,759
Speaker 2: keep hitting black until it hit fucking black, and it

696
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:45,400
Speaker 2: did hit it. They're coming back for more. That's the

697
00:36:45,440 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 2: craziest part.

698
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:46,279
Speaker 1: To me.

699
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:48,880
Speaker 2: It's like you got away with one, just walk away,

700
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:51,919
Speaker 2: and they're they're being the opposite. So I, like I said,

701
00:36:51,920 --> 00:36:53,120
Speaker 2: though I get why they would bet at two and

702
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 2: a half, I don't really get the bet at three.

703
00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:57,320
Speaker 2: To me, the three was the value on the Jags.

704
00:36:57,320 --> 00:36:58,719
Speaker 2: Now three and a half, that's a ton of value

705
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 2: on the Jags, especial across that key number.

706
00:37:00,960 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 1: Baltimore at the New York Giants. The New York Giants

707
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:08,800
Speaker 1: are now fifteen point underdogs. Crazy the Ravens coming off

708
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:14,240
Speaker 1: the bye I will tell you that. Yesterday afternoon after

709
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:22,080
Speaker 1: Sincey Tennessee, Washington, New Orleans, Jets and Jaguars. I actually

710
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:24,399
Speaker 1: was thinking to myself, I would just love it if

711
00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 1: all of these teams had to buy, like you didn't

712
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:33,600
Speaker 1: have to research them talk about them. Fifteen points in

713
00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:38,879
Speaker 1: the NFL is to me the equivalent of twenty five

714
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 1: or thirty points in college football. Like that's that's how

715
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 1: big it is. It's rare. Maybe Evan can figure this

716
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:47,799
Speaker 1: out while we're on the call and you can throw

717
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:51,160
Speaker 1: it in the chat, like, how many times has there

718
00:37:51,200 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 1: been in fifteen point favorite in the past fifteen years?

719
00:37:56,000 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 1: You know it's going to be the Patriots a bunch

720
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:01,360
Speaker 1: of times against the Dolphins that the mid twenty tens.

721
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:05,200
Speaker 1: But this is what happens when Drew Lock startsh to eight,

722
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 1: goes twenty one to forty nine, completes forty three percent

723
00:38:09,120 --> 00:38:11,719
Speaker 1: of his passes, and even most of those come like

724
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,840
Speaker 1: in the final two drives when the Giants are on

725
00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:21,919
Speaker 1: their way to winning, maybe at least covering as as

726
00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:25,359
Speaker 1: one of us expected them to do. What is your

727
00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 1: true power rating for this game?

728
00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:30,360
Speaker 2: It's right like I had it at fourteen and a

729
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:33,440
Speaker 2: half there to bump up to fifteen now, is that

730
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:35,279
Speaker 2: makes sense to me? Like if the books move this

731
00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:38,359
Speaker 2: up to seventeen, I would still be tempted, honestly take

732
00:38:38,400 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 2: the Ravens just because what you just talk about, Drew

733
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:45,160
Speaker 2: Lock is maybe one of the worst quarterbacks I've watched,

734
00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 2: and we've seen a lot of bad quarterback play. I mean,

735
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:48,839
Speaker 2: at one point he had started that game, I think

736
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:50,880
Speaker 2: oh for nine or like oh for ten against.

737
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:52,440
Speaker 1: The so for eight he started oh for eight.

738
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 2: Over eight, Yes, So oh man, this is just a

739
00:38:58,239 --> 00:39:00,560
Speaker 2: Ravens team that we think are pretty good coming off

740
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:03,319
Speaker 2: a bye week after a really bad loss to Philadelphia,

741
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 2: like you would expect Lamar to put up his classic

742
00:39:07,120 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 2: four touches, Like I can already see Stucky being like

743
00:39:09,920 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 2: Ravens first half, take that number, whatever the line is,

744
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 2: because that's just that's this kind of spot for this

745
00:39:15,239 --> 00:39:18,399
Speaker 2: Ravens team to come out and just whoop this team.

746
00:39:18,560 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 2: You know, they haven't had too many blowouts this year, right,

747
00:39:21,880 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 2: that could be the hesitation that, like, you know, maybe

748
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:28,439
Speaker 2: we're overrating this Ravens team. They're not the Ravens team

749
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:31,239
Speaker 2: of the pass that would just roll and blow out

750
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 2: these teams.

751
00:39:31,920 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 1: But they can't. They can't stop the pass. That's kind

752
00:39:35,560 --> 00:39:39,240
Speaker 1: of my fear on this is the Giants are down

753
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:43,880
Speaker 1: three touchdowns and there's two minutes left in the game

754
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 1: and Drew Locke just starts fearlessly uncirking, and instead of

755
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:52,719
Speaker 1: all those balls going in complete or being intercepted, four

756
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:56,800
Speaker 1: of them are caught and they score with thirty seconds left,

757
00:39:56,840 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 1: and yeah, bang open the back door because the Lion

758
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:04,480
Speaker 1: the Ravens defense is just so bad against the pass,

759
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:06,840
Speaker 1: like truly terrible, one of the worst in the league.

760
00:40:06,880 --> 00:40:09,480
Speaker 1: So that's like the fear here.

761
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with that. That's what I was gonna say, Like,

762
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:12,839
Speaker 2: we've only really seen it because they've had a really

763
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 2: hard schedule, and if you look at the Ravens schedule

764
00:40:14,640 --> 00:40:16,280
Speaker 2: is the reason I like they're under but they're probably

765
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:19,440
Speaker 2: gonna end up hitting this over. They're probably gonna get

766
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:21,279
Speaker 2: the overturn and a half, but just gonna look at

767
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 2: their schedule, I thought, man, this is a really tough

768
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 2: schedule we've seen this year that I mean, their only

769
00:40:25,120 --> 00:40:27,480
Speaker 2: really blow out wind shed is against Denver. They beat

770
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 2: them like forty one to nine or forty one to ten,

771
00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:32,440
Speaker 2: and that was a game we talked about like they

772
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:34,439
Speaker 2: were going for on fourth downs and they just didn't

773
00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:36,360
Speaker 2: bounced their way for Denver and bon Nicks right, that

774
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:38,839
Speaker 2: probably would have been a little closer if some things

775
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:42,759
Speaker 2: had come through. But it's like this, this is we've

776
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 2: seen now that the Ravens can't blow out certain teams

777
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:48,799
Speaker 2: in certain matchups. So for us, I don't know if

778
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:51,480
Speaker 2: it's going to make our contest because we've we've played big,

779
00:40:51,560 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 2: big lines like this. But it was literally Detroit at

780
00:40:54,560 --> 00:40:57,360
Speaker 2: home against inferior teams when they were Detroit was healthy,

781
00:40:57,440 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 2: like Detroit's the class of the class ball right now,

782
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:03,200
Speaker 2: we don't really have that same view of this team.

783
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 2: And I agree with your statement of that's the fear

784
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:07,960
Speaker 2: is the back door. So it's a type of bed

785
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 2: that if you make, you're gonna need them to be

786
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,520
Speaker 2: build twenty eight points head into the fourth quarter this

787
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:13,279
Speaker 2: range this team, and if not, you're going to be

788
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 2: sweating this bet to the very end.

789
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 1: Fifteen plus point favorites. This is how good Evan Abrams

790
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:22,719
Speaker 1: is and everyone should tell him that. When we're at

791
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:26,720
Speaker 1: the Weekend Wolf on Thursday night, everyone tells Evan he's amazing.

792
00:41:27,200 --> 00:41:30,760
Speaker 1: Everyone asks Matt Mitchell why he's a grnch. Don't forget.

793
00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:33,560
Speaker 1: Those are the two assignments. Twenty twenty three, it happened

794
00:41:33,600 --> 00:41:36,840
Speaker 1: four times, fifteen point favorites were two and two against

795
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:40,800
Speaker 1: the spread. Twenty twenty two, it happened three times, the favorites

796
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:45,280
Speaker 1: were zero to three. Twenty one it happened seven times, wow,

797
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 1: eight times, and the favorites were four to three and one.

798
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 1: This is the first time there was a fifteen plus

799
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:55,879
Speaker 1: point favorite on the road since twenty twenty one. That

800
00:41:56,200 --> 00:42:03,640
Speaker 1: was the Buffalo Bills who lost the game against Jacksonville,

801
00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:07,319
Speaker 1: So you know we got that as a reference point.

802
00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:10,840
Speaker 1: I will say when I do the some of the

803
00:42:10,880 --> 00:42:14,640
Speaker 1: research on Mondays, I'll go to NFL Next Gen Stats,

804
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:16,680
Speaker 1: which anybody can go to NFL dot com. You just

805
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 1: got to pay like seventy five bucks and get access

806
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:23,920
Speaker 1: for everything. They will list twenty four different head to

807
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:27,839
Speaker 1: head metrics for offense and defense, rushing and passing when

808
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:32,280
Speaker 1: teams play each other. Of the twenty four listed the Ravens,

809
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 1: and then they sort of grade it. Is it like

810
00:42:35,920 --> 00:42:40,799
Speaker 1: a five star advantage, meaning it's overwhelmingly in favor of

811
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:43,799
Speaker 1: one unit versus the other, or a one star where

812
00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:47,200
Speaker 1: it's a slight favorite. Between a one star and five

813
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:53,080
Speaker 1: star advantage. The Ravens had it for every single category

814
00:42:53,960 --> 00:42:59,560
Speaker 1: except for one intermediate passing. The Giants are nineteenth, the

815
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:02,200
Speaker 1: Ravens twenty nine. So I know, like the Giants is

816
00:43:02,239 --> 00:43:08,360
Speaker 1: with multiple quarterbacks. But that's what made me think Giants

817
00:43:08,360 --> 00:43:12,400
Speaker 1: are gonna be down, dink and dunk fifteen twenty yards

818
00:43:12,560 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 1: down the field and they score a touchdown, because that's

819
00:43:14,719 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 1: the one thing the Ravens are worse at. Yeah, irrational fear.

820
00:43:19,480 --> 00:43:22,360
Speaker 1: Simon Simon says, we own exec decision.

821
00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:22,759
Speaker 2: I have two.

822
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:25,600
Speaker 1: I really like all right, well I got I got two.

823
00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:29,799
Speaker 1: I really like two. Pittsburgh at Philadelphia. Philadelphia is minus five.

824
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 1: This one's taking a jump like it went from four

825
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:34,680
Speaker 1: and a half on Sunday night to five and a

826
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:37,440
Speaker 1: half most places. It came back down to four and

827
00:43:37,480 --> 00:43:41,520
Speaker 1: a half nearly everywhere except that three sixty five. So

828
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:46,720
Speaker 1: look around, get the five if you like the Steelers.

829
00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:49,760
Speaker 1: Look the Eagles had made some noise the past twenty

830
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 1: four hours. Brendan Graham. I don't know if you saw

831
00:43:52,200 --> 00:43:56,759
Speaker 1: this on WIP. I did Philadelphia, but he came out

832
00:43:56,760 --> 00:44:00,720
Speaker 1: and basically said, Jalen Hurst and AJ Brown aren't friends anymore.

833
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:07,840
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts, who is AJ Brown's kids godfather? There was

834
00:44:07,880 --> 00:44:11,799
Speaker 1: a lot of noise after that game, right, Jalen Hurts

835
00:44:11,800 --> 00:44:13,920
Speaker 1: through for one hundred and eight yards. He has the

836
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:18,360
Speaker 1: fewest passing attempts of any quarterback starting quarterback in the

837
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:22,759
Speaker 1: league this year. Yes, AJ Brown, point blank, what's going

838
00:44:22,800 --> 00:44:24,719
Speaker 1: on with the offense? He just said one word after

839
00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:28,120
Speaker 1: the game, passing throwing his helmet on the field or

840
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:31,080
Speaker 1: on the sideline. DeVante Smith saying we're not on the

841
00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:35,600
Speaker 1: same page. Something going on with his offense, like as

842
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:39,160
Speaker 1: good as Saquon is, Jalen struggling, And that's been a

843
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:40,200
Speaker 1: theme for two years now.

844
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:44,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was. I forgot to bring it up because

845
00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:46,200
Speaker 2: I had an amazing stat for someone like you that's

846
00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:48,040
Speaker 2: just been hating on Hurts. You have him in your

847
00:44:48,040 --> 00:44:50,240
Speaker 2: top ten coming to the season. You've been bad mouthing

848
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:54,120
Speaker 2: this season. Before this weekend, him and Josh Allen had

849
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 2: literally these same exact stats for total touchdowns, for turnovers,

850
00:44:58,080 --> 00:45:01,200
Speaker 2: for yards rushing and passing combined. Their stats were literally

851
00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 2: the exact same. So on one hand, Josh Josh Allen's

852
00:45:04,600 --> 00:45:06,239
Speaker 2: the greatest if you ever have the greatest season ever,

853
00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:09,880
Speaker 2: And here's Chad just shooting on Hurtz who's having literally

854
00:45:09,920 --> 00:45:12,480
Speaker 2: the mirror season until this past weekend. Obviously, Josh has

855
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:13,319
Speaker 2: pulled ahead now with this.

856
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 1: Is that true?

857
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:17,319
Speaker 2: Yeah? It was because because Hurts has the cheat code

858
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:19,880
Speaker 2: of the twelve rushing touchdowns for the Tousch push, and

859
00:45:19,920 --> 00:45:21,439
Speaker 2: now he's even more because they just did it again

860
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,640
Speaker 2: this past week. But Josh Allen's doing the touch push.

861
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:27,200
Speaker 2: Didn't hear much people shooting on him about it. Getting

862
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:30,839
Speaker 2: touch pushed into the end zone. Uh yeah, I think

863
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:33,239
Speaker 2: you know AJ is a diva, Like I knew a

864
00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:35,919
Speaker 2: j was a diva coming in the Brandon Grant things

865
00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:38,479
Speaker 2: spooky because it's like he didn't say they weren't fends.

866
00:45:38,480 --> 00:45:41,600
Speaker 2: He's basically saying Jalen Hurts is like trying to make

867
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 2: things work, and AJ is basically saying fuck off, Like

868
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 2: I don't even talk to you right now, which is

869
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:49,839
Speaker 2: like terrifying, Like I agree with you. That's that's that's

870
00:45:49,840 --> 00:45:52,800
Speaker 2: not what I want to hear. But it's like, dude,

871
00:45:52,840 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 2: your your team is the two seed. You haven't lost

872
00:45:56,760 --> 00:45:59,600
Speaker 2: in seven eight weeks. Like it just sucks that people

873
00:45:59,600 --> 00:46:01,920
Speaker 2: have this person eyes where it's never good enough, you know,

874
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:05,000
Speaker 2: like keep it in the house, just keep your mouth shut.

875
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:06,920
Speaker 2: He didn't need to make that sound bite to get

876
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 2: everyone going crazy like this, but hopefully that worked through it.

877
00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 2: But like, you know, AJ's in a weird spot where

878
00:46:15,040 --> 00:46:16,879
Speaker 2: I get he went. I guess he wants the ball.

879
00:46:16,960 --> 00:46:19,279
Speaker 2: But the Eagles are our run first team. They have

880
00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:21,560
Speaker 2: the best weapon of football right now in Saquon, So

881
00:46:21,640 --> 00:46:24,320
Speaker 2: it's like if Hurts goes out there, they throw for

882
00:46:24,320 --> 00:46:27,040
Speaker 2: three hundred yards and four touchdowns against the Carolina Panthers

883
00:46:27,080 --> 00:46:30,600
Speaker 2: and we lose. Is that a good thing? Is because

884
00:46:30,640 --> 00:46:32,880
Speaker 2: Aj is now happy because he got one fifty and

885
00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:36,480
Speaker 2: two touchdowns and a loss. It's like, I feel bad

886
00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 2: for he doesn't really understand that they're like he because

887
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:39,680
Speaker 2: I don't know if it was last year year before

888
00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:41,360
Speaker 2: he had this crazy year with all these touchdowns and

889
00:46:41,400 --> 00:46:43,839
Speaker 2: a ton of receiving. Yeah, and that was really fun.

890
00:46:43,840 --> 00:46:46,440
Speaker 2: But it's like we saw that last year that could

891
00:46:46,480 --> 00:46:48,319
Speaker 2: that didn't work once it got cold out, And like

892
00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 2: you just said, Jalen Hurts, I'm with you. I agree

893
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 2: with you. He is not consistent that that is a

894
00:46:52,600 --> 00:46:55,640
Speaker 2: weakness of his where he's got a couple of quarterbacks

895
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:57,759
Speaker 2: in this league that they need to see a couple

896
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:00,200
Speaker 2: of three four catches in a row to find a them.

897
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:01,759
Speaker 2: If they don't get those three four in a row,

898
00:47:02,239 --> 00:47:03,960
Speaker 2: he'll put up what he does did this past week

899
00:47:04,000 --> 00:47:06,480
Speaker 2: whatever it was eleven of nineteen, Like he'll just never

900
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:09,640
Speaker 2: get in a rhythm really passing wise, and the new

901
00:47:09,640 --> 00:47:11,520
Speaker 2: personality of this Eagles team have just been a run

902
00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:13,680
Speaker 2: for his team has not helped that. So I do

903
00:47:13,760 --> 00:47:18,240
Speaker 2: agree with that, but in this matchup, I mean this number,

904
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:21,960
Speaker 2: Like we we talked about, it's so telling that who's

905
00:47:22,000 --> 00:47:24,440
Speaker 2: betting the Eagles. I don't get it. That's why I'll

906
00:47:24,440 --> 00:47:26,880
Speaker 2: never understand this number shown me all bet Pittsburgh and

907
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:28,440
Speaker 2: then just let this fall where in May it's like

908
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:33,000
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh earned that respect. And you know, we talked on Sunday,

909
00:47:33,280 --> 00:47:35,400
Speaker 2: I was a little worried about the number because it's like,

910
00:47:35,440 --> 00:47:38,480
Speaker 2: what's going with Pickens. Now We've had Tomlin sound by

911
00:47:38,560 --> 00:47:40,520
Speaker 2: saying he's probably not gonna play. He said, it's really

912
00:47:40,600 --> 00:47:45,960
Speaker 2: doubtful that Pickens plays in this game. You know that

913
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 2: that that's a big deal, Like that is a big

914
00:47:48,160 --> 00:47:52,480
Speaker 2: deal against an Eagles defense that is legit, like obviously

915
00:47:52,640 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 2: they're cryptonite is other white guys. Adam Feeling tore them

916
00:47:55,560 --> 00:47:59,520
Speaker 2: up last week, But overall this has been a really

917
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:03,279
Speaker 2: stingy defense. And even against that Ravensteam, we saw they

918
00:48:03,320 --> 00:48:06,080
Speaker 2: can make stops when they need to in big time spots.

919
00:48:06,120 --> 00:48:09,400
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's a game right on with the

920
00:48:09,480 --> 00:48:12,120
Speaker 2: du chat. I really want to take Pittsburgh. I just

921
00:48:12,120 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 2: am worried whor I'm missing something here that maybe I'm

922
00:48:14,040 --> 00:48:15,759
Speaker 2: over value in Pittsburgh and this is the right time

923
00:48:15,760 --> 00:48:18,279
Speaker 2: to jump off, But why is this number not three

924
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:20,120
Speaker 2: three and a half. That's my biggest issue in me.

925
00:48:20,160 --> 00:48:22,560
Speaker 2: It's like even my model thinks this is two overvalued,

926
00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:24,520
Speaker 2: so even the human element take it out of it.

927
00:48:24,520 --> 00:48:26,799
Speaker 2: It's like, okay, we're supposed to take Pittsburgh here.

928
00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:32,200
Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin as a road dog of between four and

929
00:48:32,280 --> 00:48:36,680
Speaker 1: six points nearly sixty five percent against the spread. He's

930
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:42,080
Speaker 1: basically north of sixty percent in every category breakdown as

931
00:48:42,120 --> 00:48:47,680
Speaker 1: a dog, Like I know, we're always looking to thread

932
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:50,759
Speaker 1: the needle on these things and pick the spot where

933
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:52,120
Speaker 1: we think it's going to work. We did it with

934
00:48:52,160 --> 00:48:52,680
Speaker 1: the Chiefs.

935
00:48:54,160 --> 00:48:55,760
Speaker 2: You know, this line's fishy, though.

936
00:48:56,160 --> 00:49:01,800
Speaker 1: It's totally fishy because so fishy, it's it's completely fishy.

937
00:49:03,760 --> 00:49:07,879
Speaker 1: I worry that that the Eagles will react to this

938
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:10,680
Speaker 1: week's drama and come out better than ever.

939
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:13,160
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, that was a loss, that Carolina game. That

940
00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:15,240
Speaker 2: that feels like a loss in that locker room, right.

941
00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:17,680
Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, one hundred percent. They didn't. They are not

942
00:49:17,880 --> 00:49:20,640
Speaker 1: walking out of that game thinking, yeah, we've won nine

943
00:49:20,680 --> 00:49:24,160
Speaker 1: in a row, there's still the two seed, and we've

944
00:49:24,200 --> 00:49:29,560
Speaker 1: got the best running back in football. They're not thinking that,

945
00:49:31,320 --> 00:49:34,239
Speaker 1: but they continue to have a dominant defensive line and

946
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:38,279
Speaker 1: their offensive line is really good. It's why Saquon is

947
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:42,439
Speaker 1: second to Josh Allen in the MVP odds. And look,

948
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:44,480
Speaker 1: you could argue you can if not for the fact

949
00:49:44,560 --> 00:49:47,320
Speaker 1: Josh Allen is a quarterback and doing it in dramatic

950
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:53,879
Speaker 1: fashion in some really high profile moments. Saquon the odds

951
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:56,520
Speaker 1: should be much closer. Josh Allen is like minus four hundred.

952
00:49:56,600 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 1: Saquon is plus four hundred. It should be more like

953
00:50:00,080 --> 00:50:04,800
Speaker 1: minus one hundred, you know, plus two hundred. Because Saquon

954
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:08,680
Speaker 1: is leading a team that is number two in the conference,

955
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:11,680
Speaker 1: that has a better record, and he's on track to

956
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:14,720
Speaker 1: break one of the most sacred records in all of football,

957
00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:17,920
Speaker 1: which is the total rushing yardage record in a season.

958
00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:24,200
Speaker 1: Josh Allen's team has three losses, right, and he's on

959
00:50:24,280 --> 00:50:26,560
Speaker 1: track to do miraculous things. But how many records is

960
00:50:26,560 --> 00:50:28,520
Speaker 1: he going to break? He's just going to be a

961
00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:31,520
Speaker 1: spectacular quarterback who's leading a team that has a really

962
00:50:31,520 --> 00:50:35,960
Speaker 1: good record. I mean, I don't know, I have a

963
00:50:36,000 --> 00:50:38,920
Speaker 1: Saquon bias. I love the guy. I think he's so

964
00:50:39,040 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 1: fun to watch, love his attitude, I love his athleticism.

965
00:50:42,600 --> 00:50:45,120
Speaker 1: I think what he's doing this year is spectacular. I

966
00:50:45,160 --> 00:50:49,840
Speaker 1: love the fact that he's sticking it to the Giants.

967
00:50:50,480 --> 00:50:55,360
Speaker 1: But I feel like I got a bit on Tomlin. Yeah,

968
00:50:55,400 --> 00:50:56,480
Speaker 1: there's just no reason not to.

969
00:50:57,120 --> 00:50:59,160
Speaker 2: I know, I hate it because it just feels way

970
00:50:59,200 --> 00:51:01,959
Speaker 2: too easy. But again, it was easy. It has been winning.

971
00:51:02,000 --> 00:51:04,160
Speaker 2: Like last week the Chargers felt really way too easy,

972
00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:05,920
Speaker 2: and that's what was spooking me on that number as well.

973
00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:08,840
Speaker 2: And every idiot in the world's like, well, this is

974
00:51:08,840 --> 00:51:11,279
Speaker 2: the spy you take them. It's it's over a field goal.

975
00:51:11,440 --> 00:51:13,319
Speaker 2: You take the Chargers over a field goal against the Chiefs.

976
00:51:13,360 --> 00:51:15,680
Speaker 2: The same thing with Pittsburgh. It's like everyone, I'm talking

977
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:18,280
Speaker 2: even the book yesterday, this fucking guy at the window

978
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:21,080
Speaker 2: goes Pittsburgh easy spend of the week. There's no way

979
00:51:21,080 --> 00:51:23,400
Speaker 2: that Tomlin, no way loses by three. And it's like, fuck, man,

980
00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:25,680
Speaker 2: I'm making that same bet. God damn it.

981
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:30,200
Speaker 1: I know this. This was my second choice for executive

982
00:51:30,200 --> 00:51:34,440
Speaker 1: decision the Steelers. Yeah, but I'm pulling back. If you

983
00:51:34,480 --> 00:51:37,440
Speaker 1: and I end up having the same game, if it's

984
00:51:37,600 --> 00:51:40,160
Speaker 1: different sides, that just might make it more interesting. But

985
00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:43,360
Speaker 1: let's just let's just see Indianapolis at Denver. Like we

986
00:51:43,400 --> 00:51:46,440
Speaker 1: talked about this on Sunday night, just eyeballing it. My

987
00:51:46,440 --> 00:51:49,480
Speaker 1: first instinct was I liked Indy right now, India is

988
00:51:49,520 --> 00:51:53,359
Speaker 1: a very public dog majority of the tickets. Uh, there

989
00:51:53,440 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 1: is that same trend that backs the Saints, backs the

990
00:51:58,560 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 1: Colts here Denver's team that has been consistently covering by

991
00:52:02,680 --> 00:52:05,480
Speaker 1: an average of more than five points per game. When

992
00:52:05,520 --> 00:52:08,840
Speaker 1: that is happening, you back the underdog. They covered a

993
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:12,279
Speaker 1: fifty six percent clip. But I don't have a strong

994
00:52:12,320 --> 00:52:14,760
Speaker 1: opinion about it. I don't know if you've developed anything

995
00:52:15,040 --> 00:52:17,520
Speaker 1: over the past few days. I can't my way in.

996
00:52:17,800 --> 00:52:20,720
Speaker 2: I did. I hit the Colts and it was more like, okay,

997
00:52:20,800 --> 00:52:23,319
Speaker 2: these these feel like two teams that are fringe playoff teams,

998
00:52:23,360 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 2: and this is the right matchup that this number should

999
00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:27,040
Speaker 2: not be five, and we've seen it now come down

1000
00:52:27,080 --> 00:52:29,279
Speaker 2: to four and a half for in a lot of books,

1001
00:52:29,880 --> 00:52:31,720
Speaker 2: three and a half three is another. This game feels

1002
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:32,799
Speaker 2: like it should be three and a half three. So

1003
00:52:32,920 --> 00:52:34,440
Speaker 2: I do see it settling down there because I just

1004
00:52:34,480 --> 00:52:36,520
Speaker 2: think more professional money will come in on this Colts team.

1005
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:39,600
Speaker 2: But I'm shocked that you said that early here that

1006
00:52:39,680 --> 00:52:42,600
Speaker 2: people are backing this Colts team just because I thought

1007
00:52:42,640 --> 00:52:44,800
Speaker 2: everyone just be so in love that bo Nick, especially

1008
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:46,839
Speaker 2: you know, he got to cover for them against that

1009
00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:49,040
Speaker 2: Cleveland team before he hadding to the bye week. So

1010
00:52:50,040 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 2: maybe it's maybe the early money is just professional money

1011
00:52:52,120 --> 00:52:54,719
Speaker 2: because I don't know why Joe Publrick's coming on this,

1012
00:52:54,880 --> 00:52:57,279
Speaker 2: right there's other games I see, like the public coming on. Yeah,

1013
00:52:57,360 --> 00:53:00,960
Speaker 2: yeah for sure, Yeah, I like the Colts. I'd take

1014
00:53:00,960 --> 00:53:02,279
Speaker 2: it down to three and a half. So if you

1015
00:53:02,360 --> 00:53:04,839
Speaker 2: can still get four and a half for four, that

1016
00:53:04,840 --> 00:53:06,080
Speaker 2: that to me is good value right.

1017
00:53:06,000 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 1: Now, all right, here we go. I don't know if

1018
00:53:10,120 --> 00:53:12,480
Speaker 1: this is your game, but it's my da Now, okay,

1019
00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:15,200
Speaker 1: Buffalo at Detroit.

1020
00:53:15,600 --> 00:53:18,160
Speaker 2: How about how about a little kick ass on three?

1021
00:53:18,239 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 1: One two three. Detroit is now a one and a

1022
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:27,239
Speaker 1: half point favorite. It's come down from two and a

1023
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:31,640
Speaker 1: half down two down to one and a half in

1024
00:53:31,680 --> 00:53:36,680
Speaker 1: some spots. This is a very public dog play. Looking

1025
00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:39,399
Speaker 1: at the current number, seventy percent of the tickets are

1026
00:53:39,440 --> 00:53:43,240
Speaker 1: on Buffalo, forty one percent of the money is on Detroit.

1027
00:53:43,960 --> 00:53:47,880
Speaker 1: So if you think about it, if seventy percent of

1028
00:53:47,920 --> 00:53:50,840
Speaker 1: the tickets are on Buffalo and thirty percent are on

1029
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:58,800
Speaker 1: Detroit forty one percent of the money slightly more lean

1030
00:53:59,000 --> 00:54:02,600
Speaker 1: from a professional point of view on Detroit. Even though

1031
00:54:02,640 --> 00:54:07,240
Speaker 1: this number has been coming down, I'm making the lines

1032
00:54:07,239 --> 00:54:08,080
Speaker 1: of my exact decision.

1033
00:54:08,960 --> 00:54:15,239
Speaker 2: Wow, the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are

1034
00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:21,000
Speaker 2: you your own executive decision. I'll support it just because

1035
00:54:21,000 --> 00:54:23,080
Speaker 2: the line movement, But I mean it was up to

1036
00:54:23,200 --> 00:54:26,400
Speaker 2: three Sunday night. I said that was way too much.

1037
00:54:26,640 --> 00:54:28,799
Speaker 2: That you're in close three on a Josh Allen that

1038
00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:30,680
Speaker 2: he will keep you in and no matter of what,

1039
00:54:30,840 --> 00:54:32,759
Speaker 2: he will backdoor that number because that was too much.

1040
00:54:32,800 --> 00:54:38,480
Speaker 2: You're right though the movement public reception. Lions are the

1041
00:54:38,480 --> 00:54:42,960
Speaker 2: better team on their on extended rest here, and they

1042
00:54:42,960 --> 00:54:45,279
Speaker 2: didn't just go through an absolute track meet and they're

1043
00:54:45,280 --> 00:54:47,120
Speaker 2: not on back to back road game. So it feels

1044
00:54:47,120 --> 00:54:48,800
Speaker 2: like a lot of things are working against this Bills

1045
00:54:48,800 --> 00:54:52,560
Speaker 2: team and this was just a brutal stretch. Now you

1046
00:54:52,600 --> 00:54:56,080
Speaker 2: are getting incredibly desperate. Josh Allen that this has tended

1047
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:57,600
Speaker 2: to be a good spot to back him after a

1048
00:54:57,680 --> 00:55:02,520
Speaker 2: loss playing against a team that I don't want to

1049
00:55:02,560 --> 00:55:05,880
Speaker 2: say they overlook that Rams game. But Josh Allen just

1050
00:55:05,920 --> 00:55:08,080
Speaker 2: wasn't right, and neither was obviously that defense to start

1051
00:55:08,080 --> 00:55:09,000
Speaker 2: the game. Like I don't know if you had a

1052
00:55:09,000 --> 00:55:10,320
Speaker 2: three and out or they had a couple of drops

1053
00:55:10,320 --> 00:55:11,960
Speaker 2: to start, but all of a sudden, it was I

1054
00:55:11,960 --> 00:55:13,319
Speaker 2: felt like it was twenty one to ten in that

1055
00:55:13,360 --> 00:55:17,480
Speaker 2: game with the Rams. Here, we don't expect that to

1056
00:55:17,480 --> 00:55:19,160
Speaker 2: be this type of game. But like you just said,

1057
00:55:19,920 --> 00:55:21,680
Speaker 2: the value was going to eventually shift back to this

1058
00:55:21,719 --> 00:55:23,799
Speaker 2: Detroit team, and you're right now that it's under two, Chad,

1059
00:55:23,960 --> 00:55:26,560
Speaker 2: I'll support that move just because that's a really good

1060
00:55:26,640 --> 00:55:29,640
Speaker 2: number on Detroit team. That could we lose this to

1061
00:55:29,680 --> 00:55:31,880
Speaker 2: the best player in football and Josh Allen, Yes, But

1062
00:55:32,960 --> 00:55:35,040
Speaker 2: now that it's under that key number, I could easily

1063
00:55:35,040 --> 00:55:37,000
Speaker 2: see in this land at too and we cover this

1064
00:55:37,320 --> 00:55:39,040
Speaker 2: like it just feels like a really nice number in

1065
00:55:39,040 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 2: this spot.

1066
00:55:39,840 --> 00:55:42,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, the teams are so evenly matched. It's strength against

1067
00:55:42,920 --> 00:55:46,560
Speaker 1: weakness on offense and strength against weakness on defense. Lion's

1068
00:55:46,680 --> 00:55:49,240
Speaker 1: pass offense is amongst the best in the league. Bill's

1069
00:55:49,280 --> 00:55:50,920
Speaker 1: pass defense is near the bottom.

1070
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:53,600
Speaker 2: You know, So it's a great match. I mean, this

1071
00:55:53,680 --> 00:55:55,280
Speaker 2: is a great match for Lions offense.

1072
00:55:55,640 --> 00:55:57,920
Speaker 1: It's a great matchup. And like the Bill's rushing offense

1073
00:55:58,000 --> 00:56:00,360
Speaker 1: is elite and the Lions is mediocre. So to me,

1074
00:56:00,440 --> 00:56:04,080
Speaker 1: it really comes down to, I mean, it's insane.

1075
00:56:04,200 --> 00:56:04,920
Speaker 2: That's insane.

1076
00:56:05,280 --> 00:56:08,680
Speaker 1: It's insane. It's like can the can the Lion stop

1077
00:56:08,760 --> 00:56:12,359
Speaker 1: Josh Allen when he improvises, that's really when he's at

1078
00:56:12,360 --> 00:56:17,200
Speaker 1: his best. Dan Campbell strategically versus Sean McDermott, I have

1079
00:56:17,360 --> 00:56:20,640
Speaker 1: a much more, much more confidence than Dan Campbell making

1080
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:24,879
Speaker 1: the right calls to maximize the opportunity to win the game.

1081
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:27,880
Speaker 2: You know your BET's coming down to a couple fourth downs.

1082
00:56:27,920 --> 00:56:29,719
Speaker 2: That's what you know when you're making that The lines

1083
00:56:29,800 --> 00:56:31,239
Speaker 2: right now, we know that's what it's coming down to.

1084
00:56:31,400 --> 00:56:34,600
Speaker 1: Lion's executing in high variant situations. So with this number,

1085
00:56:34,960 --> 00:56:37,640
Speaker 1: like now that it's below two, I got to take

1086
00:56:37,680 --> 00:56:41,800
Speaker 1: the lines. It's Simon. Can you name the best ticketing

1087
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1088
00:56:43,680 --> 00:56:44,560
Speaker 2: Game Time?

1089
00:56:45,000 --> 00:56:48,600
Speaker 1: That's right, it's our beloved sponsor, game Time. As Simon

1090
00:56:49,000 --> 00:56:51,520
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Speaker 1: time searching through thousands of tickets. Speaking to which, I'm

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Speaker 1: opening the game Time app right now. From my house

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1102
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1110
00:57:58,720 --> 00:58:00,000
Speaker 1: is it? Game talk?

1111
00:58:00,880 --> 00:58:01,240
Speaker 2: All right?

1112
00:58:01,840 --> 00:58:04,960
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay at the Chargers Chargers from three point favorites

1113
00:58:05,120 --> 00:58:07,720
Speaker 1: on Sunday? You said you like Tampa. You liked them

1114
00:58:07,800 --> 00:58:11,360
Speaker 1: last week against the Raiders as a really touchdown favorite. Yeah,

1115
00:58:11,400 --> 00:58:12,280
Speaker 1: what are you seeing here?

1116
00:58:13,320 --> 00:58:15,200
Speaker 2: I just keep thinking every week this Tampa team's under

1117
00:58:15,240 --> 00:58:17,120
Speaker 2: value that they don't get through respect they deserve. And

1118
00:58:17,160 --> 00:58:20,760
Speaker 2: it's all because of the Mike Evans and Chris Godwin

1119
00:58:20,800 --> 00:58:22,280
Speaker 2: injuries that happened weeks ago.

1120
00:58:22,480 --> 00:58:26,040
Speaker 1: And by the way, you're so right, Like, I keep

1121
00:58:26,120 --> 00:58:29,880
Speaker 1: thinking about this game, and I'm thinking, who are these people?

1122
00:58:30,040 --> 00:58:32,160
Speaker 1: Why do they deserve to be in this close And

1123
00:58:32,200 --> 00:58:35,080
Speaker 1: I keep forgetting that Mike Evans is back hurtling people.

1124
00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:38,320
Speaker 2: In that and the only way for me is Bucky Irving,

1125
00:58:38,960 --> 00:58:40,840
Speaker 2: who to me has been the lifeblood of this team.

1126
00:58:41,280 --> 00:58:43,000
Speaker 2: He was banged up. I think he played like five

1127
00:58:43,040 --> 00:58:45,120
Speaker 2: snaps last week and they took him out because I

1128
00:58:45,120 --> 00:58:47,440
Speaker 2: think they quickly realized what are we doing here? Why

1129
00:58:47,440 --> 00:58:48,840
Speaker 2: are we playing them in this game where we're just

1130
00:58:48,880 --> 00:58:51,400
Speaker 2: gonna roll these guys? Now, it did get close, right,

1131
00:58:51,440 --> 00:58:55,400
Speaker 2: There was a couple bad termers by you know, Baker,

1132
00:58:55,440 --> 00:58:58,680
Speaker 2: and we talk about that when we bet Baker, we

1133
00:58:58,680 --> 00:59:00,400
Speaker 2: we don't know what game are getting. Like got the

1134
00:59:00,480 --> 00:59:02,840
Speaker 2: Jamie Winston thing where he when Baker's bad, he is

1135
00:59:02,880 --> 00:59:06,440
Speaker 2: truly bad. When he's on, he is lights out perfect.

1136
00:59:06,600 --> 00:59:10,960
Speaker 2: And we've seen this season this Bucks team that they

1137
00:59:11,040 --> 00:59:15,560
Speaker 2: kind of played the level of their competition. And on

1138
00:59:15,640 --> 00:59:18,880
Speaker 2: the flip side, this Chargers team feels a little overrated

1139
00:59:18,920 --> 00:59:21,040
Speaker 2: because they did cover that when they're when they are

1140
00:59:21,040 --> 00:59:23,360
Speaker 2: missing all those guys. Now if they're once a going

1141
00:59:23,400 --> 00:59:25,480
Speaker 2: tonna be out, be out without the number one receiver

1142
00:59:25,600 --> 00:59:28,160
Speaker 2: and their number one running back against the Buccaneers team

1143
00:59:28,200 --> 00:59:31,640
Speaker 2: that is relatively healthy coming into this matchup, I just

1144
00:59:31,640 --> 00:59:33,480
Speaker 2: feel like this was going to be a close game throughout,

1145
00:59:33,520 --> 00:59:36,000
Speaker 2: Like this is just two teams that all season have

1146
00:59:36,080 --> 00:59:40,280
Speaker 2: just grinded out ugly close games in matchups. So I

1147
00:59:40,360 --> 00:59:42,080
Speaker 2: just think three is too much. I have this game

1148
00:59:42,120 --> 00:59:44,480
Speaker 2: closer to a pick. I have the I honestly have

1149
00:59:44,520 --> 00:59:48,400
Speaker 2: the Chargers minus one just because of Herbert. He's just

1150
00:59:48,400 --> 00:59:50,480
Speaker 2: been playing so well in certain spots this season where

1151
00:59:50,480 --> 00:59:54,320
Speaker 2: it's like he deserves that respect that even with those

1152
00:59:54,360 --> 00:59:56,560
Speaker 2: injuries to the offense, he obviously can still move the

1153
00:59:56,560 --> 01:00:00,600
Speaker 2: ball himself. But overall, they're playing against now another Buccaneers

1154
01:00:00,640 --> 01:00:03,080
Speaker 2: team that's a good playoff team, like they're leaving their

1155
01:00:03,120 --> 01:00:06,160
Speaker 2: division right now, and I just don't think they're getting respect.

1156
01:00:06,200 --> 01:00:08,280
Speaker 2: Like even when I look in the Action app, the

1157
01:00:08,680 --> 01:00:10,200
Speaker 2: money in the bets right now are still coming on

1158
01:00:10,240 --> 01:00:13,440
Speaker 2: this Chargers team. So yeah, I like this matchup for

1159
01:00:13,480 --> 01:00:17,160
Speaker 2: this Bucks team, not just offensively but defensively. I think

1160
01:00:17,160 --> 01:00:19,000
Speaker 2: there are ways for them to get stops and attack

1161
01:00:19,280 --> 01:00:22,040
Speaker 2: this Chargers team. And yeah, Chad, it's it's just a

1162
01:00:22,120 --> 01:00:23,880
Speaker 2: key number of three. I just like that number.

1163
01:00:24,400 --> 01:00:26,040
Speaker 1: Do we wait to see if it gets to three

1164
01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:28,080
Speaker 1: and a half with the activity that's coming in in

1165
01:00:28,120 --> 01:00:28,920
Speaker 1: the Chargers.

1166
01:00:31,600 --> 01:00:33,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd be shocked if the books move there because

1167
01:00:33,320 --> 01:00:34,720
Speaker 2: I feel like they would get a ton of Tampa

1168
01:00:34,800 --> 01:00:36,760
Speaker 2: money like this. This to me feels right because they

1169
01:00:36,800 --> 01:00:38,040
Speaker 2: did a couple of books they'd go to two and

1170
01:00:38,080 --> 01:00:39,760
Speaker 2: a half and they took a lot of Chargers money

1171
01:00:39,960 --> 01:00:41,760
Speaker 2: and they just moved it right back to three. So

1172
01:00:42,480 --> 01:00:44,240
Speaker 2: it does feel like that the type of line the

1173
01:00:44,920 --> 01:00:47,800
Speaker 2: books will just let the betting public decide where this goes.

1174
01:00:48,800 --> 01:00:51,280
Speaker 1: New England at Arizona. Arizona's a five and a half

1175
01:00:51,280 --> 01:00:55,960
Speaker 1: point favorite. I was actually surprised that book bookmakers made

1176
01:00:55,960 --> 01:00:58,920
Speaker 1: it close to seven on Sunday night. There were some

1177
01:00:59,040 --> 01:01:02,200
Speaker 1: sevens out there on day mostly six and a half.

1178
01:01:02,880 --> 01:01:05,320
Speaker 1: It's moved down to five and a half. It's like,

1179
01:01:07,200 --> 01:01:10,800
Speaker 1: I get the move, but now it just feels like

1180
01:01:10,880 --> 01:01:13,280
Speaker 1: it's in a dead zone where I have no opinion.

1181
01:01:15,000 --> 01:01:18,800
Speaker 2: That's fair. I honestly wanted to fade New England here because,

1182
01:01:18,880 --> 01:01:21,280
Speaker 2: like to me, that seven did feel high, but it

1183
01:01:21,320 --> 01:01:25,600
Speaker 2: felt right because we've seen now that they I don't

1184
01:01:25,640 --> 01:01:27,960
Speaker 2: want to say they're a different team on the road,

1185
01:01:28,600 --> 01:01:32,080
Speaker 2: but it is tough for Drake may right, like, you know,

1186
01:01:32,280 --> 01:01:35,120
Speaker 2: being a rookie that he is. You know, they went

1187
01:01:35,200 --> 01:01:38,000
Speaker 2: to Jacksonville, they got blown out. I don't even know

1188
01:01:38,000 --> 01:01:40,440
Speaker 2: it was. It was like thirty to twelve, something crazy

1189
01:01:40,480 --> 01:01:42,240
Speaker 2: like that. And we saw that in Miami game they

1190
01:01:42,280 --> 01:01:45,360
Speaker 2: lost thirty four to fifteen. There's just been times where

1191
01:01:45,360 --> 01:01:46,720
Speaker 2: he's going on the road and he's really struggled. Now

1192
01:01:46,720 --> 01:01:49,200
Speaker 2: there are outliers, right, they went to Chicago they won

1193
01:01:49,280 --> 01:01:51,520
Speaker 2: nineteen to three, but we already talk about we thought

1194
01:01:51,520 --> 01:01:53,440
Speaker 2: we had that more to do with the coaching than

1195
01:01:53,440 --> 01:01:58,440
Speaker 2: anything else. And this Arizona team, I don't know, it

1196
01:01:58,480 --> 01:02:00,880
Speaker 2: feels like even though the the pitcher coming off the

1197
01:02:00,880 --> 01:02:02,520
Speaker 2: bye week, I just like it feels like they're a

1198
01:02:02,520 --> 01:02:05,000
Speaker 2: good team that's desperate now playing against a bad team

1199
01:02:05,080 --> 01:02:08,840
Speaker 2: that I just don't think they're good. Like I really

1200
01:02:08,840 --> 01:02:11,400
Speaker 2: don't like New England. I get their identity of being

1201
01:02:11,440 --> 01:02:14,640
Speaker 2: to run the ball, and Drake May having big plays downfield,

1202
01:02:14,640 --> 01:02:17,080
Speaker 2: and I think he has the highest average per rush

1203
01:02:17,200 --> 01:02:19,480
Speaker 2: right now in the season where when he does run

1204
01:02:19,640 --> 01:02:23,160
Speaker 2: he runs for like ten yards. But man, this the field,

1205
01:02:23,240 --> 01:02:25,160
Speaker 2: like the Lions, move so much, it's tempting me to

1206
01:02:25,200 --> 01:02:27,920
Speaker 2: buy azon A. So I'm gonna wait, take some sharp

1207
01:02:27,960 --> 01:02:29,680
Speaker 2: calls here what the pros do on this one, because

1208
01:02:30,040 --> 01:02:32,040
Speaker 2: that's clearly really smart money that's moved that all the

1209
01:02:32,040 --> 01:02:34,120
Speaker 2: way down from seven to five and a half to

1210
01:02:34,160 --> 01:02:35,640
Speaker 2: a lot of books now chat are shown four and

1211
01:02:35,680 --> 01:02:38,400
Speaker 2: a half, So this number just keeps coming down.

1212
01:02:38,560 --> 01:02:43,240
Speaker 1: It's weird to me, Like my note about the Patriots,

1213
01:02:43,240 --> 01:02:44,920
Speaker 1: It's why I didn't really have a strong opinion in

1214
01:02:45,000 --> 01:02:50,720
Speaker 1: this is that at this point it's Drake May scrambling

1215
01:02:50,760 --> 01:02:53,280
Speaker 1: for dear life and hoping he can improvise and do

1216
01:02:53,280 --> 01:02:56,280
Speaker 1: a great play. By the way, another reason why Josh

1217
01:02:56,320 --> 01:03:03,080
Speaker 1: Allen probably shouldn't win MVP of a record setting Saquon Barkley.

1218
01:03:03,600 --> 01:03:06,440
Speaker 1: Josh Allen's not even the best scrambling quarterback in his division.

1219
01:03:06,560 --> 01:03:10,320
Speaker 2: Drake May, oh my god, oh my god.

1220
01:03:10,880 --> 01:03:14,560
Speaker 1: Clearly nobody knows what they're talking about. No one's looking

1221
01:03:14,560 --> 01:03:17,360
Speaker 1: at the numbers. Numbers never lie green Bay at Seattle.

1222
01:03:17,640 --> 01:03:20,880
Speaker 1: Seattle's a three point dog. I lean Seattle on Sunday night,

1223
01:03:21,480 --> 01:03:24,680
Speaker 1: and this is a massive public dog right now. Based

1224
01:03:24,680 --> 01:03:27,520
Speaker 1: on the current tickets, it seems like, and you said

1225
01:03:27,520 --> 01:03:31,640
Speaker 1: this on Sunday, the wise guys are leaning towards the Packers,

1226
01:03:32,720 --> 01:03:36,200
Speaker 1: one of the bigger pro Joe splits, and I think

1227
01:03:36,240 --> 01:03:38,800
Speaker 1: it might be heading to three and a half. So

1228
01:03:38,920 --> 01:03:42,880
Speaker 1: wise guys moving the book makers in that direction. The

1229
01:03:42,920 --> 01:03:46,560
Speaker 1: one thing that scares me about the Seahawks the Packers

1230
01:03:46,560 --> 01:03:49,320
Speaker 1: this year, for whatever reason, they are a ball hawking

1231
01:03:49,400 --> 01:03:53,200
Speaker 1: defensive unit and Gino Smith has the second most interceptions

1232
01:03:53,200 --> 01:03:53,720
Speaker 1: in the NFL.

1233
01:03:55,480 --> 01:03:58,320
Speaker 2: Simon says, go grab green Bay minus two and a half.

1234
01:03:58,680 --> 01:04:00,840
Speaker 1: Wow, when.

1235
01:04:02,600 --> 01:04:06,160
Speaker 2: We do what Science Day a couple of big public books,

1236
01:04:06,200 --> 01:04:09,080
Speaker 2: touff two and a half. I love this Sunday. I

1237
01:04:09,080 --> 01:04:10,440
Speaker 2: didn't really get it because I didn't know why it

1238
01:04:10,480 --> 01:04:14,320
Speaker 2: wasn't three, and Chad just said it like it. Clearly

1239
01:04:15,000 --> 01:04:17,200
Speaker 2: the public has a side they like, and it's the Seahawks.

1240
01:04:17,240 --> 01:04:19,480
Speaker 2: I don't know why they're underrating this green Bay team

1241
01:04:19,480 --> 01:04:22,600
Speaker 2: who just played so well on Thursday night against the

1242
01:04:22,680 --> 01:04:26,480
Speaker 2: lines that we've just I don't know. I feel like

1243
01:04:26,480 --> 01:04:29,560
Speaker 2: maybe I'm getting sucked into urdu with chat. But anytime

1244
01:04:30,160 --> 01:04:32,520
Speaker 2: the AMC North is playing outside their division now and

1245
01:04:32,520 --> 01:04:35,480
Speaker 2: they're under a three under a field goal, you have

1246
01:04:35,520 --> 01:04:37,280
Speaker 2: to take them. What if there's a twenty eight to

1247
01:04:37,320 --> 01:04:41,240
Speaker 2: three outside their division this season, it's incredible. How well

1248
01:04:41,640 --> 01:04:44,040
Speaker 2: that's not including the the Bears obviously this is just

1249
01:04:44,040 --> 01:04:49,920
Speaker 2: for the Green Bay Vikings and Lions. Uh but no,

1250
01:04:50,000 --> 01:04:53,360
Speaker 2: it's it's crazy. So to me, I love the matchup

1251
01:04:53,360 --> 01:04:56,200
Speaker 2: for Green Bay. I think their offense can move. We'll

1252
01:04:56,200 --> 01:04:58,120
Speaker 2: be able to move the ball against Seahawks defense that

1253
01:04:58,760 --> 01:05:00,840
Speaker 2: I just was like a little overrated right now. They've

1254
01:05:00,840 --> 01:05:02,920
Speaker 2: had a couple of things break their way, and I

1255
01:05:02,960 --> 01:05:04,720
Speaker 2: do agree they've been playing better, but look at the

1256
01:05:05,200 --> 01:05:07,400
Speaker 2: competition they've been going up against. This is going to

1257
01:05:07,440 --> 01:05:09,720
Speaker 2: be a really, really great test for them, just because

1258
01:05:10,080 --> 01:05:14,160
Speaker 2: we've seen all season Laflour. He just has such great scripts,

1259
01:05:14,200 --> 01:05:16,320
Speaker 2: like game scripts, and he knows the exact time to

1260
01:05:16,360 --> 01:05:21,040
Speaker 2: call certain plays. And you know, even when the Green

1261
01:05:21,080 --> 01:05:23,000
Speaker 2: Bay doesn't have that many possessions like they did against

1262
01:05:23,040 --> 01:05:26,280
Speaker 2: the Lines, he still maximized the possessions they did have.

1263
01:05:26,640 --> 01:05:30,560
Speaker 2: And yeah, this matchup to me, it's all about the number.

1264
01:05:30,600 --> 01:05:32,680
Speaker 2: Like I really love green Bay. It was gonna make

1265
01:05:32,760 --> 01:05:33,840
Speaker 2: us put it in no matter what. If it was

1266
01:05:33,920 --> 01:05:36,120
Speaker 2: under three. I hope you're wrong. If this is three

1267
01:05:36,120 --> 01:05:38,720
Speaker 2: and a half in the contest, I don't know confident

1268
01:05:38,720 --> 01:05:40,080
Speaker 2: I am taking Green Bay and Mines three and a

1269
01:05:40,120 --> 01:05:42,040
Speaker 2: half in the contest, But two and a half, it's like,

1270
01:05:42,640 --> 01:05:45,280
Speaker 2: must be in. This is a great spot, great number

1271
01:05:45,440 --> 01:05:48,960
Speaker 2: on a really good team that are desperate. They are

1272
01:05:49,000 --> 01:05:51,160
Speaker 2: so desperate in this spot because of that loss last

1273
01:05:51,160 --> 01:05:53,680
Speaker 2: week to the Lions team. So it all matches up

1274
01:05:53,680 --> 01:05:56,120
Speaker 2: really well scheme wise for this Green Bay team.

1275
01:05:56,640 --> 01:06:00,680
Speaker 1: Really interesting. I'm looking at our notes right now, I'm

1276
01:06:00,680 --> 01:06:02,840
Speaker 1: feeling like, if we can get a good number on Detroit,

1277
01:06:03,000 --> 01:06:06,120
Speaker 1: a good number on Green Bay, We've got strong opinions

1278
01:06:06,160 --> 01:06:08,680
Speaker 1: on at least two of the games that we would play.

1279
01:06:09,320 --> 01:06:14,000
Speaker 1: And then we've got like fearful opinions on the Browns.

1280
01:06:14,480 --> 01:06:17,760
Speaker 1: On the Steelers, yeah.

1281
01:06:17,560 --> 01:06:19,760
Speaker 2: And then the Jaguars. We have some ugly dogs you

1282
01:06:19,840 --> 01:06:21,280
Speaker 2: do like this week, But yeah, right now, me and

1283
01:06:21,320 --> 01:06:23,480
Speaker 2: you are feeling definitely more confident about favorite betting.

1284
01:06:24,720 --> 01:06:28,760
Speaker 1: Well, here's a wild card for you. Chicago Bears are

1285
01:06:28,800 --> 01:06:33,240
Speaker 1: seven point underdogs at Minnesota. Forget about my Bears bias.

1286
01:06:33,360 --> 01:06:37,640
Speaker 1: Like strictly speaking from a market point of view, isn't

1287
01:06:37,640 --> 01:06:41,280
Speaker 1: this an inflated line? Like I said, along with the Jets,

1288
01:06:41,880 --> 01:06:44,760
Speaker 1: there's not another team in the NFL this year whose

1289
01:06:44,920 --> 01:06:50,160
Speaker 1: failures are more discussed, highlighted, debated, whose future is a

1290
01:06:50,200 --> 01:06:53,920
Speaker 1: hotter topic than the Chicago Bears. I think that has

1291
01:06:53,960 --> 01:06:56,560
Speaker 1: a huge impact on the line. I think it has

1292
01:06:56,600 --> 01:07:00,360
Speaker 1: a huge impact on how bookmakers think the pub lick

1293
01:07:00,760 --> 01:07:04,800
Speaker 1: is viewing this team. Don't forget that is the baseline

1294
01:07:04,880 --> 01:07:09,320
Speaker 1: for bookmaking. What do book makers think the public is

1295
01:07:09,400 --> 01:07:13,880
Speaker 1: going to think? And they set the number accordingly to

1296
01:07:14,000 --> 01:07:19,560
Speaker 1: try to trap public betters into making decisions that are

1297
01:07:19,840 --> 01:07:25,120
Speaker 1: in favor of the book. Now they are coming off

1298
01:07:25,240 --> 01:07:31,920
Speaker 1: a legit ass kicking while the Vikings doubled up the Falcons.

1299
01:07:32,960 --> 01:07:37,320
Speaker 1: The book makers are telling me that they expect the

1300
01:07:37,360 --> 01:07:40,959
Speaker 1: public to come in on the Vikings at no matter

1301
01:07:41,040 --> 01:07:44,560
Speaker 1: what the number, because of the perception of the Bears

1302
01:07:44,600 --> 01:07:47,280
Speaker 1: and because of what the Vikings have been doing. Why

1303
01:07:47,360 --> 01:07:48,520
Speaker 1: aren't I betting the Bears here?

1304
01:07:50,880 --> 01:07:52,960
Speaker 2: I don't know. Maybe because it is something we talked

1305
01:07:52,960 --> 01:07:55,600
Speaker 2: about too. Where the splits aren't great for Killer Williams

1306
01:07:55,640 --> 01:07:57,320
Speaker 2: on the road compared to his home place. He's just

1307
01:07:57,320 --> 01:07:59,400
Speaker 2: been a different GB on the road compared at home.

1308
01:07:59,520 --> 01:08:02,880
Speaker 2: And obviously this is a team that saw seven straight games.

1309
01:08:03,200 --> 01:08:05,480
Speaker 2: This is a third straight road game, which is obviously

1310
01:08:05,520 --> 01:08:08,280
Speaker 2: tough on a team, especially one that is coming off

1311
01:08:08,720 --> 01:08:14,200
Speaker 2: two straight road losses. And Minnesota they did take the

1312
01:08:14,240 --> 01:08:16,320
Speaker 2: foot off the gas last time they played, and I

1313
01:08:16,400 --> 01:08:18,599
Speaker 2: don't think that's gonna happen here, Chad, Like they were

1314
01:08:18,680 --> 01:08:21,040
Speaker 2: up fourteen to that fourth quarter, came back that game,

1315
01:08:21,080 --> 01:08:22,680
Speaker 2: god to ot. I think it did go overtime and

1316
01:08:22,720 --> 01:08:24,400
Speaker 2: they had to squeak out a field goal just to

1317
01:08:24,439 --> 01:08:27,439
Speaker 2: beat that Bears team. So I just can't see them

1318
01:08:27,600 --> 01:08:30,200
Speaker 2: doing that again this week. Like I feel like this

1319
01:08:30,280 --> 01:08:32,280
Speaker 2: is the type of game where, you know, Coach of

1320
01:08:32,280 --> 01:08:34,000
Speaker 2: the Year Ken O'Connell just beats the shit out of

1321
01:08:34,000 --> 01:08:36,360
Speaker 2: the Bears if you can and just run the score up.

1322
01:08:36,720 --> 01:08:39,160
Speaker 2: But my biggest reason I want to fade the Vikings

1323
01:08:39,280 --> 01:08:42,519
Speaker 2: just because of Sam Darnold coming off whatever that was

1324
01:08:42,520 --> 01:08:47,080
Speaker 2: a five touchdown perfect game. Like it's it's really tough

1325
01:08:47,120 --> 01:08:49,200
Speaker 2: because I'm right there with you. I'm looking for reasons

1326
01:08:49,200 --> 01:08:51,519
Speaker 2: to take this Bears team and maybe I just should

1327
01:08:51,560 --> 01:08:53,840
Speaker 2: just give up and stop overthinking, just take the seven.

1328
01:08:54,439 --> 01:08:58,160
Speaker 2: But it's like, why is this number so big? I'm

1329
01:08:58,200 --> 01:09:00,000
Speaker 2: in total agreements with you, and it's just maybe it's

1330
01:09:00,120 --> 01:09:02,320
Speaker 2: just because of everything I just said that. This is

1331
01:09:02,360 --> 01:09:04,720
Speaker 2: three straight road games for the Bears. They haven't won

1332
01:09:04,760 --> 01:09:08,200
Speaker 2: in seven weeks. Any normal team that's gonna wear on you,

1333
01:09:08,320 --> 01:09:11,680
Speaker 2: wearing your soul, and you saw that last week. They

1334
01:09:11,680 --> 01:09:15,120
Speaker 2: looked totally lost, even though Caleb didn't stop trying, right

1335
01:09:15,120 --> 01:09:16,880
Speaker 2: he came on the second half, thrown and they put

1336
01:09:16,920 --> 01:09:20,800
Speaker 2: up a good fight. But yeah, this is two totally

1337
01:09:20,840 --> 01:09:25,040
Speaker 2: different organizations right now. Like one is just totally surprised,

1338
01:09:25,120 --> 01:09:26,800
Speaker 2: feeling great feel on top of all. The other one

1339
01:09:26,920 --> 01:09:30,599
Speaker 2: is just totally disappointed. You know, we joked about coming

1340
01:09:30,600 --> 01:09:31,880
Speaker 2: to the season. Their win total was nine and a

1341
01:09:31,920 --> 01:09:34,599
Speaker 2: half on the Bears. It was six and a half

1342
01:09:34,600 --> 01:09:37,759
Speaker 2: for this Vikings team. I mean, just totally different opposite

1343
01:09:37,760 --> 01:09:40,240
Speaker 2: sides of the world at this point in the season. So, yeah, Jah,

1344
01:09:40,320 --> 01:09:42,599
Speaker 2: this is one I'll stay away from right now. But

1345
01:09:42,960 --> 01:09:45,000
Speaker 2: I'm with you. My initial gut reaction was like, just

1346
01:09:45,040 --> 01:09:46,479
Speaker 2: take the seven, don't overthink it.

1347
01:09:46,840 --> 01:09:48,719
Speaker 1: You can have one with that. The other you can't

1348
01:09:49,720 --> 01:09:53,800
Speaker 1: have the Vikings be inflated and look for that opportunity

1349
01:09:54,160 --> 01:09:58,639
Speaker 1: and not believe that the Bears are undervalued in this spot.

1350
01:09:58,680 --> 01:10:00,840
Speaker 1: That's how the number gets the set. If you don't

1351
01:10:00,840 --> 01:10:02,760
Speaker 1: have both things, then the number is probably closer to

1352
01:10:03,080 --> 01:10:07,840
Speaker 1: say four and a half or five. So I'm not like,

1353
01:10:08,040 --> 01:10:10,280
Speaker 1: I don't feel strongly we have to get this one in.

1354
01:10:10,360 --> 01:10:13,839
Speaker 1: But to me, this was the best example of seeing

1355
01:10:13,880 --> 01:10:20,439
Speaker 1: a by low a by low Sell high scenario for

1356
01:10:20,520 --> 01:10:21,519
Speaker 1: this week's late So.

1357
01:10:21,720 --> 01:10:23,519
Speaker 2: The Bears again give credit to the Bears that they

1358
01:10:23,560 --> 01:10:25,679
Speaker 2: have played great in their division, like that Green Bay

1359
01:10:25,760 --> 01:10:28,680
Speaker 2: game they lost twenty nineteen against Minnesota, they lost thirty

1360
01:10:28,720 --> 01:10:30,479
Speaker 2: to twenty seven against their Troy lost twenty three to

1361
01:10:30,520 --> 01:10:32,760
Speaker 2: twenty all three of those games they easily could have

1362
01:10:32,760 --> 01:10:34,760
Speaker 2: flipped one. That's why they fired their head coach. So

1363
01:10:35,120 --> 01:10:36,720
Speaker 2: it is an interesting spot.

1364
01:10:37,560 --> 01:10:41,040
Speaker 1: Look the last game Atlanta, the Raiders. Raiders are four

1365
01:10:41,080 --> 01:10:45,040
Speaker 1: and a half. This is the Desmond Raider revenge game. Yeah,

1366
01:10:45,160 --> 01:10:48,599
Speaker 1: or it's the Kirk Cousins gets healthy game, or it's

1367
01:10:48,640 --> 01:10:51,080
Speaker 1: the game you don't pay attention to because you're watching

1368
01:10:51,120 --> 01:10:52,320
Speaker 1: the Bears and the Vikings.

1369
01:10:53,120 --> 01:10:54,559
Speaker 2: I mean, we obviously don't have to spend that much

1370
01:10:54,560 --> 01:10:55,880
Speaker 2: time when we'll get out of here just so we

1371
01:10:55,920 --> 01:10:58,360
Speaker 2: get right onto the mark for Matt Mitchell here. But yeah,

1372
01:10:58,400 --> 01:11:01,160
Speaker 2: I look at this one as I'll take Atlanta and

1373
01:11:01,200 --> 01:11:02,920
Speaker 2: I won't watch a second on this game, which is

1374
01:11:03,080 --> 01:11:04,519
Speaker 2: how does Atlanta not bounce back?

1375
01:11:04,560 --> 01:11:04,720
Speaker 1: Here?

1376
01:11:04,800 --> 01:11:07,080
Speaker 2: Kirk hasn't thrown a touchdown. It feels like four or

1377
01:11:07,120 --> 01:11:10,439
Speaker 2: five weeks. This is the perfect get right spot against

1378
01:11:10,479 --> 01:11:14,280
Speaker 2: a Raiders team that you know should have faded them

1379
01:11:14,320 --> 01:11:16,599
Speaker 2: last week. Pissed we didn't because that was a spot

1380
01:11:16,760 --> 01:11:19,120
Speaker 2: anytime they played tough against the Chiefs you just faded

1381
01:11:19,160 --> 01:11:23,400
Speaker 2: the following week. This Raiders team against the Falcons, you know,

1382
01:11:23,560 --> 01:11:25,880
Speaker 2: this is just a bad matchup, a raw for the Raiders.

1383
01:11:25,880 --> 01:11:28,920
Speaker 2: So yeah, I'll take the Falcons, but not anything like

1384
01:11:29,000 --> 01:11:30,200
Speaker 2: in our contest or anything.

1385
01:11:30,680 --> 01:11:34,920
Speaker 1: No, it's terrible. As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is

1386
01:11:34,960 --> 01:11:38,120
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1387
01:11:38,160 --> 01:11:40,840
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Speaker 1: in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads,

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01:11:51,560 --> 01:11:54,800
Speaker 1: total player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, It's

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Speaker 1: never ordinary. At bet three sixty five. Must be twenty

1394
01:11:58,120 --> 01:12:02,640
Speaker 1: one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

1395
01:12:02,680 --> 01:12:06,400
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

1396
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Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

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Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions

1398
01:12:13,760 --> 01:12:17,439
Speaker 1: restrictions apply. Simon and I will return with our next

1399
01:12:17,479 --> 01:12:19,679
Speaker 1: episode of the Favorites on the Action Network YouTube page

1400
01:12:19,800 --> 01:12:25,080
Speaker 1: eleven am Eastern Thursday to talk our week fifteen best bets.

1401
01:12:25,120 --> 01:12:27,960
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