1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We have 11 00:00:46,800 --> 00:00:50,160 Speaker 2: the right guy at the right time on a five 12 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 2: percent nominal GDP ending June thirty. Comedy Stuart Kaiser, I 13 00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 2: got goosebumps right now. 14 00:00:57,400 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 3: How you were out two years ago saying it will 15 00:01:00,760 --> 00:01:05,319 Speaker 3: be okay and as I've always said, corporations will adjust 16 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:06,640 Speaker 3: in your mind. 17 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:11,160 Speaker 2: Away from Andrew Hollandhorst and Veronica Clark, Victoria Clark, are 18 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 2: you modeling a slowdown? 19 00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 4: You know, we're we're a little more worried about it 20 00:01:15,240 --> 00:01:17,120 Speaker 4: than we have been probably in the last eighteen months. 21 00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 4: I would say, you know, Veronica and Andrew definitely have 22 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:22,479 Speaker 4: a recession kind of later this year. We have seen 23 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:24,319 Speaker 4: some I think shots across the bow and the weak 24 00:01:24,400 --> 00:01:27,080 Speaker 4: data perspective, but as you mentioned, GDP strong this morning 25 00:01:27,240 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 4: claims are up to two hundred and thirty eight thousand, 26 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:33,440 Speaker 4: So like in our view, the macro backdrop is positive 27 00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:36,480 Speaker 4: for equities. You've got solid jobs growth, you've got inflation 28 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:38,679 Speaker 4: using your blow consensus, you've got a FED that wants 29 00:01:38,720 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 4: to cut, So that to us says you want to 30 00:01:40,240 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 4: keep running long equity, right. 31 00:01:41,360 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 2: Gina Martin Adam's parses down the income statement. She sees solidity. 32 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 2: She's worried about revenue shortfall. If I have a five 33 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 2: percent Q two nominal GDP, how do I have a 34 00:01:52,760 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 2: revenue shortfall? 35 00:01:54,280 --> 00:01:57,160 Speaker 4: You know? Probably probably unlikely. I think that the biggest 36 00:01:57,200 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 4: race in the back half to me would be even 37 00:01:59,160 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 4: though five percent high from a nominal perspective, compared to 38 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 4: what we had a year or two ago, that nominal 39 00:02:03,960 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 4: number is lower, And I think the question is in 40 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:08,919 Speaker 4: a slowly nominal environment, do we see downward pressure on margins? 41 00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:11,760 Speaker 4: But look big picture, I think the earnings outlooks looks 42 00:02:11,760 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 4: pretty strong. Twelve month forward EPs is like two hundred 43 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:16,880 Speaker 4: and sixty bucks, which is a very big number. So look, 44 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 4: I think the earnings outlook is still pretty solid. The 45 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 4: challenge is that the expectations around that earnings outlook are 46 00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:26,119 Speaker 4: quite high. And if you look at this quarter to date, 47 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 4: forty six percent of companies have traded up on earnings. 48 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 4: Historically that's like fifty two So less than half of 49 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:34,000 Speaker 4: companies are trading high around the earnings prints, I think, 50 00:02:34,000 --> 00:02:36,080 Speaker 4: which tells you how high the bar is this quarter. 51 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 5: Tom Stewart's got this great stat here, I'm just looking 52 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 5: at it. SPX yesterday had its first two percent down 53 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:44,640 Speaker 5: day in more than in three hundred and sixty five 54 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:48,400 Speaker 5: trading days. I mean, that goes to the strength and 55 00:02:48,480 --> 00:02:52,040 Speaker 5: consistency of this market here, which I guess is even 56 00:02:52,080 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 5: more amazing than the context of the Fed's been raising rates. 57 00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:57,600 Speaker 5: You know, it's just what happens when the Fed starts 58 00:02:57,600 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 5: really cutting rates. 59 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's a really impress Paul. I think part of 60 00:03:00,840 --> 00:03:02,680 Speaker 4: that is just the fact that you you sort of 61 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:05,200 Speaker 4: clip the tail off inflation, which helps a lot of 62 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 4: people are blaming vas selling and sort of all these 63 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,920 Speaker 4: systematic strategies that are that are fundamentally supporting the market, 64 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:13,760 Speaker 4: and I think that's probably partially the case. There's there's 65 00:03:13,760 --> 00:03:15,400 Speaker 4: a flip side of that coin though, right you know, 66 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:18,080 Speaker 4: coming out of yesterday, the size move we saw in 67 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:21,000 Speaker 4: the S and P means like volatility target funds are 68 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:23,239 Speaker 4: going to sell about seventy five billion dollars of equity 69 00:03:23,280 --> 00:03:24,760 Speaker 4: over the course in the next couple of days. So 70 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 4: the question is, yes, we've we've had a very low 71 00:03:28,120 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 4: volatility rally. Now that we've broken out of that range, 72 00:03:31,760 --> 00:03:33,680 Speaker 4: the test is going to be have we broken out 73 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:35,120 Speaker 4: of the range and do we end up a little 74 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:37,520 Speaker 4: bit untethered or do we get a strong GDP number 75 00:03:37,640 --> 00:03:38,680 Speaker 4: and we sort of ourselves. 76 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 2: How long does it take for these sophisticated institutional strategies 77 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:48,280 Speaker 2: to activate and then they clear the market and the 78 00:03:48,320 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 2: market's left to itself? 79 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:50,880 Speaker 3: Is it ours? 80 00:03:51,080 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 6: Is it? 81 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:54,400 Speaker 3: Days? Is it? You know when they bring au Twister three? 82 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 3: When is it? 83 00:03:56,520 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 4: I think it's I think it's more in the days category. 84 00:03:58,360 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 3: Tom. 85 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:00,600 Speaker 4: You know, like the vall target funds, for instance, do 86 00:04:00,680 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 4: it over a kind of a T plus two basis. 87 00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:04,920 Speaker 4: You know, the CTAs are doing it sort of in 88 00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 4: real time, but they're obviously responsive to each day. 89 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:09,480 Speaker 3: Right, you know, you're down yesterday, you sell. If you're 90 00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 3: up today, you might buy. 91 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:13,200 Speaker 4: So I would say, you know you're talking days, not 92 00:04:13,200 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 4: not necessarily hours, But it would depend on the strategy. 93 00:04:15,960 --> 00:04:17,800 Speaker 4: And you know, it depends how actively managed they are. 94 00:04:17,839 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 5: I mean, you think about city, I mean just just 95 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:22,840 Speaker 5: the most global of off firms in New York, London, 96 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 5: Hong Kong. Your traders talk to everybody. It's the chatter 97 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 5: bin over the pass a couple of days. Any panic 98 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 5: coming back or are they just saying no, it's it's 99 00:04:30,760 --> 00:04:32,040 Speaker 5: pretty orderly trading here. 100 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, I would. 101 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 4: I would say we haven't seen outright panic necessarily. Yesterday 102 00:04:35,960 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 4: we were about thirty three percent better to sell on 103 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 4: the desk, which is which is a significant amount of 104 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:42,840 Speaker 4: risk reduction. In tech, you were two and a half 105 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:45,320 Speaker 4: to one better to sell. So we definitely saw in 106 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:48,039 Speaker 4: tech yesterday some people taking out risk. That said through 107 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:50,360 Speaker 4: the pipes, it looked like retail was pretty actively buying 108 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:53,040 Speaker 4: those tech stocks. So look, you know people that people 109 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:55,040 Speaker 4: that wanted to be in at Video or SMCI or 110 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:57,440 Speaker 4: ARM or one of these stocks maybe looking at this 111 00:04:57,480 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 4: pullback as you know, them getting a second bite at 112 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 4: the Apple in terms of getting back engaged. And if 113 00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 4: that's the case, that's positive. 114 00:05:03,320 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 2: So within your securities analysis team at City Group, what 115 00:05:07,240 --> 00:05:09,359 Speaker 2: do you do with Google? Do you let the things 116 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 2: settle down for X number of days and then repurpose Google. 117 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:19,599 Speaker 2: My head is spinning over, Paul, you understand it. I 118 00:05:19,680 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 2: don't gamma trading and all the rest of it for 119 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 2: conservative normal Hey, I've got to fund my retirement plan investors. 120 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:29,840 Speaker 3: This is an opportunity, right. 121 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:32,600 Speaker 4: I think ultimately people will look back at this, at 122 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:35,320 Speaker 4: these Google learnings and say they were actually quite solid. 123 00:05:35,400 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 4: Obviously the YouTube side of it was a little bit weak, 124 00:05:37,600 --> 00:05:40,920 Speaker 4: but the other sides were positive. The read across from 125 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 4: a Google perspective, I think was on the cap x 126 00:05:43,440 --> 00:05:46,160 Speaker 4: side of things, the AI trade this year there's been 127 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:48,720 Speaker 4: an ongoing debate of do I own the capex spenders 128 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:51,919 Speaker 4: or do I own the recipients of that Capex? And 129 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:54,280 Speaker 4: I think what you saw with you know, Google kind 130 00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:56,279 Speaker 4: of guiding down a little bit on the cap x side, 131 00:05:56,320 --> 00:05:59,719 Speaker 4: it really got people's antennas up. So the issue there 132 00:05:59,760 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 4: is not of Google issue only. It is a is 133 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:04,800 Speaker 4: a feedback loop to the other parts of the ecosystem. 134 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 2: Apple does a very clear presentation. I sit there at 135 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:09,599 Speaker 2: four to twelve pm, people go, what do you do 136 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 2: when you go home? You know, I walk the dogs. 137 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 2: You know, I take they take the fame for surveillance 138 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 2: and APP. I got a beverage of my choice in 139 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 2: my hand, and I'm looking at the Apple numbers and 140 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 2: I'm seeing this hysteria out there within financial media, and 141 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:28,559 Speaker 2: I'm looking at the cash flow statement, going what why 142 00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:30,880 Speaker 2: you know? And I don't mean to pick on Apple. 143 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:32,719 Speaker 2: It could be any of these other stucks like Google 144 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:35,360 Speaker 2: the other day they had a solid quarter. 145 00:06:35,080 --> 00:06:37,080 Speaker 5: The solid quarter, a solid free cash flow. 146 00:06:37,360 --> 00:06:37,960 Speaker 3: How about that? 147 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:39,640 Speaker 5: You know, as Tom's talking about some of those big 148 00:06:39,720 --> 00:06:41,920 Speaker 5: names we have, we've seen a real kind of rotation 149 00:06:41,960 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 5: the last few weeks into the small cap, you know, 150 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:46,760 Speaker 5: looking at the Russell app performing the small cap Russell 151 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 5: two thousand. 152 00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 2: Is that a thing? 153 00:06:49,279 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 4: I think it's a It's a thing if you believe 154 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:53,279 Speaker 4: in the soft landing. So I think what you saw 155 00:06:53,480 --> 00:06:56,359 Speaker 4: late last year, middle of June on the June FMC 156 00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:59,280 Speaker 4: and July eleventh on CPI is when you get soft 157 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:03,160 Speaker 4: landing data, which is solid jobs and downward surprises on inflation, 158 00:07:03,320 --> 00:07:05,200 Speaker 4: especially if the FED wants to cut in the background. 159 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 4: People gravitate towards these soft landing trades, and the target 160 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:12,800 Speaker 4: for those trades is small cap, it's regional banks, it's 161 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 4: things of that nature. So I think what you've seen 162 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:18,160 Speaker 4: is is the market sort of going through a soft 163 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:21,480 Speaker 4: landing trade for the moment. We think it's more tactical. 164 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 4: I don't necessarily think that's sustainable over a medium term 165 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 4: period because Andrew Holmenhorsten team do have a deceleration and growth. 166 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:29,880 Speaker 4: A lot of people said, oh, small caps in election trade. 167 00:07:29,960 --> 00:07:32,120 Speaker 4: I think that's reverse engineering a narrative. I think this 168 00:07:32,240 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 4: is very much a macroeconomic data trade. 169 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 2: Keep talking that. Marcus just swin Green was Stuaris. 170 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 3: Where we at the end of the year. 171 00:07:39,640 --> 00:07:42,680 Speaker 2: I understand that's deep and long term for you, but 172 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:43,440 Speaker 2: where we at the. 173 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:43,960 Speaker 3: End of the year. 174 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 4: Our research sides got Kroner the third fifty six hundred 175 00:07:47,320 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 4: end of year. You know, I think we're higher than 176 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 4: we are today at the end of the year. Personally, obviously, 177 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 4: if we get a recession, that's not going to be 178 00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:56,840 Speaker 4: the case. But our view is, as I mentioned, you 179 00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:59,920 Speaker 4: run long equity risk unless and until that US job 180 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:03,000 Speaker 4: market cracks if the job marker hade strong, you remain 181 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 4: long equities and I think we're hiring to year end 182 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:05,680 Speaker 4: in that case. 183 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:06,480 Speaker 3: Hugely valuable. 184 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:09,320 Speaker 2: Can't say enough about Stewart Keiser was City Group head 185 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:22,320 Speaker 2: of US equity Trading. What we're going to do is 186 00:08:22,600 --> 00:08:27,120 Speaker 2: stop on a July morning, with our heads spinning over 187 00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:30,640 Speaker 2: the American history lessons of the last ten days. We 188 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 2: have a guest esteemed in Washington, Libby Cantrell's with Pimco, 189 00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 2: out of Brown, out of Harvard, with some serious effort 190 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:42,560 Speaker 2: at Morgan Stanley to understand inside the Beltway, and I 191 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:44,880 Speaker 2: just want to stop, and I want to talk about 192 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:48,559 Speaker 2: two senators and how they were different, How was the 193 00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:53,079 Speaker 2: and I had the honor of speaking with Senator Obama 194 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:55,800 Speaker 2: by the bruin Zamboni when he was a senator, nobody 195 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:59,839 Speaker 2: knew who he was. How is Senator Obama different from 196 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 2: Senator Harris in Libby Cantrill's world or were they the same? 197 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:06,600 Speaker 2: Just two young junior senators. 198 00:09:07,240 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 1: Well so, Senator Obama actually had fewer years of service 199 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 1: than Senator Harris did. Remember he was only in the 200 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:15,640 Speaker 1: Senate for two years. Two cups, Yeah, right, exactly. 201 00:09:16,080 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 7: And she was there for four years. 202 00:09:17,440 --> 00:09:19,280 Speaker 1: I do think that maybe a similarity though, is that 203 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 1: they both knew that they were going to be pursuing 204 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:24,680 Speaker 1: national office when they started their jobs in the Senate, 205 00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 1: so that they knew that the Senate was not sort 206 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:28,679 Speaker 1: of their landing place that they had. And I think 207 00:09:28,720 --> 00:09:31,200 Speaker 1: that if you look at both of their records, that's 208 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:33,360 Speaker 1: sort of emblematic some of the things that they voted on. 209 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:36,880 Speaker 1: We're probably trying to tee them up for a national 210 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 1: race versus just against stay in the Senate. 211 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:43,359 Speaker 2: I'm a prosecutor at Attorney General in California. I'm parachuting 212 00:09:43,400 --> 00:09:47,840 Speaker 2: into the Senate, which is all collegialities. Smiley teams, put 213 00:09:47,880 --> 00:09:50,560 Speaker 2: your napkin in your lap in the Senate lunch room. 214 00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 2: The rap on her is she said, troubled building a team? 215 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:55,439 Speaker 3: Discuss that. 216 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean she's had I think management staff issues 217 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 1: really since she was a DA in San Francisco. So 218 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 1: this is something that it will be a liability. Obviously, 219 00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 1: building a national campaign in a very short period of time, 220 00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 1: basically building a plane while you're flying, it is challenging 221 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:12,959 Speaker 1: to begin with. 222 00:10:13,840 --> 00:10:17,959 Speaker 3: But you have lived this. Do they change? Can she improve? Well? Look, 223 00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:18,960 Speaker 3: she has a building. 224 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:20,679 Speaker 1: I mean there is a lot, there are a lot 225 00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:24,320 Speaker 1: of tailwinds to continue that the airplane metaphor she has, 226 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 1: I mean, she has the entire kind of Democratic Party apparatus. 227 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 1: She has lots of national figures who are endorsing her 228 00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:35,079 Speaker 1: and supporting her, so people are incredibly incentivized to see 229 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 1: her succeed. In some ways, she might actually benefit from 230 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: a shorter campaign because you don't have the time to 231 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:43,320 Speaker 1: sort of pick her apart, pick the campaign apart that 232 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 1: you would and deserve a general general election cycle. So 233 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:47,960 Speaker 1: this is so extraordinary. 234 00:10:48,240 --> 00:10:48,640 Speaker 7: I'm much. 235 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:50,160 Speaker 1: I don't think those are going to be the things 236 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:51,640 Speaker 1: that are really going to weigh on voters. But I 237 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:54,959 Speaker 1: think her liability, though, is that platform that she ran 238 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 1: on in twenty twenty. And of course for the Democrats 239 00:10:57,480 --> 00:10:59,480 Speaker 1: they may not be an issue, but to get those 240 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 1: swing vote in those six states that she needs to 241 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:04,400 Speaker 1: in order to. 242 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:05,359 Speaker 7: Win the presidency. 243 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:08,200 Speaker 1: The fact that she has advocated for medicare for all, 244 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:11,320 Speaker 1: the fact that she basically is you know, talked about 245 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:14,160 Speaker 1: open borders or what have you, or fewer you know, 246 00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:16,679 Speaker 1: repercussions for folks coming over the border. I mean, all 247 00:11:16,720 --> 00:11:20,040 Speaker 1: of those things will plague her. So, Tom to your question, well, 248 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 1: her management style, maybe that will plague her. Maybe, But 249 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:25,400 Speaker 1: is that going to be the big headwind going into November. 250 00:11:25,440 --> 00:11:27,079 Speaker 7: Probably not. It's going to be more of trying to 251 00:11:27,120 --> 00:11:27,960 Speaker 7: defend that record. 252 00:11:28,400 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 5: It seems like the Democrats have some renewed momentum here. 253 00:11:31,280 --> 00:11:33,920 Speaker 5: What are you telling the fund managers of pimpco about 254 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:37,200 Speaker 5: what's happened over the last you know, seventy two hours 255 00:11:37,200 --> 00:11:39,960 Speaker 5: and what the next several months might entail with olipms. 256 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:41,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, of course, while the horse race may or may 257 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 1: not be interesting, that there are traders really care about 258 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:46,760 Speaker 1: is like what does this mean for the economy? 259 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:48,840 Speaker 7: What does this mean for markets? And I think that 260 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:51,960 Speaker 7: in many ways this is just reset the race, right. 261 00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 1: And so if you were if you're putting odds on 262 00:11:54,400 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: a Biden presidency and a A and sort of the 263 00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:01,079 Speaker 1: composition of Congress, you would have said, wow, you know, 264 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 1: the chips are really stacked in favor of Republicans. 265 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:05,600 Speaker 7: Last week, that has changed. 266 00:12:05,640 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 1: And I think that is not only the top of 267 00:12:08,280 --> 00:12:11,000 Speaker 1: the ballot, but really the down ballot. I mean, the 268 00:12:11,000 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 1: composition of Congress really matters for the things that actually 269 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:18,040 Speaker 1: investors care about, For fiscal policy, for tax and for spending, 270 00:12:18,200 --> 00:12:20,680 Speaker 1: and a Republicans sweep looked like it was much more 271 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 1: likely as of last week than it does today. So 272 00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:27,520 Speaker 1: of course it's still early days and how Harris will 273 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:31,200 Speaker 1: will do versus Trump, but there is so much more 274 00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:34,320 Speaker 1: renewed enthusiasm. And I think the big challenge for Democrats 275 00:12:34,360 --> 00:12:36,199 Speaker 1: going into the general if Biden were on the top 276 00:12:36,200 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 1: of the ticket was lack of enthusiasm, and that has changed, right. 277 00:12:39,400 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 5: I mean, what do you make of, you know, the fundraising. 278 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:43,440 Speaker 5: We had a story yesterday on the Bloomberg about how 279 00:12:43,440 --> 00:12:45,600 Speaker 5: some of the big Wall Street folks are lining up 280 00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 5: behind Harris. But I guess what got me was the 281 00:12:49,840 --> 00:12:51,959 Speaker 5: reporting that one hundred million dollars was raised by the 282 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:56,360 Speaker 5: Harris campaign in the twenty four hours after Biden announced 283 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:59,200 Speaker 5: you stepping down, and sixty two percent of those were 284 00:12:59,320 --> 00:13:00,520 Speaker 5: new donors. 285 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:03,439 Speaker 7: Yeah, and there were relatively small donors. I think that 286 00:13:03,920 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 7: was the thing. 287 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:06,360 Speaker 1: I mean, this is so this is I mean, yeah, 288 00:13:06,400 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 1: these big donors are kind of coming back home, if 289 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:10,920 Speaker 1: you will. They were sort of sitting on the sidelines 290 00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 1: when Biden was the top of the ticket. But really 291 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:15,320 Speaker 1: the fact that there's so much more renewed energy, the 292 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:18,440 Speaker 1: fact that she is appealing to to some of the 293 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:21,240 Speaker 1: constituencies that did the Democrats need in order to win, 294 00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:24,839 Speaker 1: like young people and like African Americans. And I think 295 00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:27,360 Speaker 1: the grassroots fundraising service reflection. 296 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:29,440 Speaker 3: Of that and the craziness that we're living. Folks. I 297 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:32,120 Speaker 3: actually work. I do work more than three hours ago. 298 00:13:32,960 --> 00:13:33,520 Speaker 3: It's hard to. 299 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:35,640 Speaker 2: Believe that don't work a day like Cantrell, but you know, 300 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:37,640 Speaker 2: it's fine, or Lisa Matteo. 301 00:13:37,720 --> 00:13:39,120 Speaker 3: But you know, LIBBYA. 302 00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:43,560 Speaker 2: I was reading the Pew Research Topology report where they 303 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:47,000 Speaker 2: divide Americans into nine groups and there's three or four 304 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 2: shades of Democratic Party. She's going to be painted as 305 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:53,200 Speaker 2: a Bernie Sanders, Liz Warren progressive? 306 00:13:53,880 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 3: Is she is? 307 00:13:55,600 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 2: She? 308 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 1: Is she that? 309 00:13:57,120 --> 00:13:58,000 Speaker 7: I don't know. 310 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 1: I think that's another issue, is that voters don't really 311 00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:04,040 Speaker 1: know what she stands for. I mean, obviously, when she 312 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:07,559 Speaker 1: was the DA, when she was the Attorney general in California, 313 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:11,120 Speaker 1: you know, she could have been characterized as center left, 314 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:14,320 Speaker 1: almost even centrist in terms of some of her approach 315 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 1: to to to sort. 316 00:14:15,240 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 7: Of law enforcement, what have you. 317 00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:19,200 Speaker 1: But when she got to the Senate, and this is 318 00:14:19,360 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 1: your previous question, Tom when she got to the Senate, 319 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:23,000 Speaker 1: she knew she was going to be running for a 320 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:26,640 Speaker 1: national office, and she did pivot pretty far left again 321 00:14:26,680 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 1: on some of those things like Medicare for all, like 322 00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:32,600 Speaker 1: defunding the police, like stopping fracking, and these issues will 323 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 1: matter to swing voter. So I think this will be 324 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 1: her challenge is almost reintroducing herself to voters in a 325 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 1: way that maybe is more reflective of where she really stands. 326 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:46,240 Speaker 1: Because that the liberal, the progressive liberal that we saw 327 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:48,520 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty running for the primary against Elizabeth Warren. 328 00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:50,440 Speaker 1: That will she will not be able to win the 329 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 1: presidency if that is her platform. 330 00:14:52,480 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 5: Who's debating who going forward? I mean debate Trump advance 331 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:00,000 Speaker 5: and does that work? And who decides how that plays out? Yeah, 332 00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 5: because I'm looking forward to that. I'm looking forward to. 333 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 1: And I do think and I you know again, I 334 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:04,840 Speaker 1: think one of the reasons why there's so much renewed 335 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:08,120 Speaker 1: optimism is because Harris like her or not like her. 336 00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:09,920 Speaker 1: I mean, we'll be able to litigate the case against 337 00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 1: Trunk better than certainly than Biden was able to write 338 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:14,400 Speaker 1: in terms of the June twenty seventh debate. Yeah, So 339 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 1: the running mate her re selection of the running mate. 340 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 1: I do think will be important just in terms of 341 00:15:18,720 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 1: reflective of her judgment, and obviously who she picks her 342 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:25,640 Speaker 1: running mate will then debate JD vance TBD on the dates. 343 00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 1: There were some dates thrown out when she was the 344 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:30,000 Speaker 1: vice president and now when she was the running mate, 345 00:15:30,040 --> 00:15:33,520 Speaker 1: and now that's changed. September tenth is still potentially the 346 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 1: date where there might be a Trump versus Harris debate, 347 00:15:37,040 --> 00:15:39,200 Speaker 1: And of course, just in terms of history, that is 348 00:15:39,320 --> 00:15:43,000 Speaker 1: much more typical. Usually we see the debates after the conventions. 349 00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:44,960 Speaker 1: The fact that we saw this debate in June was 350 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:48,000 Speaker 1: of course what the Biden world wanted, pretty pretty impressent. 351 00:15:48,080 --> 00:15:50,600 Speaker 3: Ten seconds, who's your VP pick? Who's the common sense 352 00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:51,120 Speaker 3: pick for her? 353 00:15:51,320 --> 00:15:54,080 Speaker 1: You know, you know, you know, I think Mark Kelly, 354 00:15:54,280 --> 00:15:57,200 Speaker 1: I think Roy Cooper, I think Jos Shapiro. You know, 355 00:15:57,240 --> 00:16:01,200 Speaker 1: William mcgraven was was rumored for for a very hot second. 356 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 1: He's a general who obviously killed some of them. Laden 357 00:16:03,600 --> 00:16:05,440 Speaker 1: he would have that would have really shored up the ticket. 358 00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 1: But I think one of those gentlemen would do a 359 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 1: nice job of bouncing. 360 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:16,040 Speaker 6: Julie Pimcoff, You're on the list, Levy Ketchel, thank you 361 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:19,680 Speaker 6: so much, Pacific Investment Management Company and of course her 362 00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 6: really expertise on the Halls of Congress and the policy 363 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 6: of America. 364 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 3: This is a joy. This is someone Postsuen, you know, 365 00:16:31,040 --> 00:16:31,480 Speaker 3: some Duke. 366 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:35,280 Speaker 2: There are young Turks in academics and in this case 367 00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:38,840 Speaker 2: coming out of Stanford who just start writing his book. 368 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:44,880 Speaker 2: Goldilock's globalism has created a stir and Paul it centers 369 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 2: around like in twenty sixteen, both candidates walked away from TPP, 370 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:52,880 Speaker 2: they walked away from the Pacific and the only tool 371 00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:55,680 Speaker 2: you have is a blunt instrument of terrorists of tarffs. 372 00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 5: And we've seen that from both the Trump administration, but 373 00:16:59,240 --> 00:17:01,640 Speaker 5: staying with the By administration as well. We're seeing more 374 00:17:01,640 --> 00:17:04,960 Speaker 5: and more talk, more and more tariffs, I guess in 375 00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:09,040 Speaker 5: you know, really saying it's part of economic security, and 376 00:17:09,080 --> 00:17:12,000 Speaker 5: that's something new. Tim Meyer Joints is Associate Professor of 377 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,400 Speaker 5: Duke Law. Tim, can you put into context why we're 378 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:20,359 Speaker 5: seeing more I guess economic policy being invested in the 379 00:17:20,400 --> 00:17:22,720 Speaker 5: presidency as opposed to Congress. 380 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:28,359 Speaker 8: Sure, so, you know, I think presidents have long used 381 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:33,719 Speaker 8: foreign policy as a vehicle to get around gridlock and Congress. 382 00:17:34,080 --> 00:17:36,520 Speaker 8: The president has long been thought to have a pretty 383 00:17:36,560 --> 00:17:40,440 Speaker 8: wide degree of latitude in making foreign policy. It's very 384 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:42,960 Speaker 8: common to talk about presidents, especially in their second term, 385 00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 8: you know, turning pivoting to foreign policy. And one of 386 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:49,360 Speaker 8: the things that we've observed since President Trump first took 387 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:53,920 Speaker 8: office in twenty seventeen is that foreign commerce, commercial policy 388 00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:56,679 Speaker 8: has kind of gotten wrapped up in that in that bubble, 389 00:17:56,800 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 8: Congress has granted the president a pretty broad, odd degree 390 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:06,880 Speaker 8: of discretion in setting trade restrictions, in particular in negotiating 391 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:11,479 Speaker 8: new trade agreements. The president, multiple presidents have kind of 392 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 8: treated it as their prerogative to go out and negotiate 393 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:18,840 Speaker 8: new trade agreements. President Trump obviously treated it as his 394 00:18:18,960 --> 00:18:24,119 Speaker 8: prerogative to impose a wide degree of tariffs on steel 395 00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:29,480 Speaker 8: aluminum imports from China. Obviously he tried to regulate foreign 396 00:18:29,560 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 8: investment in businesses like TikTok, and you know, there's some 397 00:18:34,880 --> 00:18:37,479 Speaker 8: question about the legality of those actions, whether or not 398 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:40,760 Speaker 8: that goes too far in terms of cutting Congress out 399 00:18:40,760 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 8: of the out of the policy making framework. But economic 400 00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:48,640 Speaker 8: security has been what the trumpet Biden administrations have really 401 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:50,800 Speaker 8: leaned on to say, look, this is a security issue, 402 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:51,640 Speaker 8: This is for the president. 403 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:55,920 Speaker 5: So I guess where is Congress on this. I mean again, 404 00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:58,200 Speaker 5: if I would were in Congress, I would think I 405 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:01,480 Speaker 5: think the Framers wanted Congress to have some of these powers. 406 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:04,919 Speaker 8: Yeah, so if you read the Constitution, that is what 407 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:08,639 Speaker 8: it says. So the Constitution makes pretty clear that Congress 408 00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 8: has authority, exclusive authority to regulate foreign commerce. Congress also, 409 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:17,400 Speaker 8: you know, when we talk about tariffs, tariffs are just taxes, right, 410 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:21,000 Speaker 8: They're just taxes on imports, and so the power to 411 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:26,120 Speaker 8: set taxes is also for Congress in the Constitution. And 412 00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 8: you know, really for most of the first one hundred 413 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:32,480 Speaker 8: and fifty years, Congress did set tariffs. And it was 414 00:19:32,840 --> 00:19:36,720 Speaker 8: really in the nineteen thirties that as part of kind 415 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,679 Speaker 8: of building out of the Great Depression and negotiating what 416 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:44,120 Speaker 8: ultimately became the World Trade Organization in the nineteen nineties 417 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,639 Speaker 8: that that authority over tariffs really started to get delegated 418 00:19:48,200 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 8: to the to the president. 419 00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:52,879 Speaker 3: Yeah, go ahead, Oh we note a smooth hauling. 420 00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 2: You got a guy from Utah, guy from Oregon. They 421 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:57,760 Speaker 2: blow up the world in nineteen twenty nine. We all 422 00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:00,840 Speaker 2: know what happened after that. Do you look at Trump, 423 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 2: Harris and there's no difference, and we're going to get them. 424 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:07,720 Speaker 2: We're going to get China and Trump and Harris whoever 425 00:20:08,160 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 2: is going to be on the edge of a new 426 00:20:09,600 --> 00:20:11,120 Speaker 2: smoot Holly. 427 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:16,680 Speaker 8: You know, so President Trump is clearly talking about ideas 428 00:20:16,720 --> 00:20:19,040 Speaker 8: that are in that ballpark. He's talking about and across 429 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:22,439 Speaker 8: the board ten percent tariff, he's talking about sixty percent 430 00:20:22,560 --> 00:20:27,440 Speaker 8: tariffs on Chinese imports. You know that that's that's clearly 431 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:29,600 Speaker 8: in the smooth Holly range. And there have been estimates 432 00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,199 Speaker 8: that say, look, that amounts to, you know, roughly a 433 00:20:32,240 --> 00:20:37,960 Speaker 8: seventeen hundred dollars per year per household tax increase effectively 434 00:20:37,960 --> 00:20:41,680 Speaker 8: that President Trump is proposing. You know, I don't think 435 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 8: Vice President Harris is talking about anything in that range. 436 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:47,920 Speaker 8: You know, as you all mentioned, the Biden administration has 437 00:20:48,560 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 8: by and large continued some of the tariffs that President 438 00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:54,800 Speaker 8: Trump imposed when he was first in office. They tried 439 00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:56,600 Speaker 8: to be a little bit more targeted I think in 440 00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,840 Speaker 8: some of what they've done, particularly in kind of trying 441 00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 8: to calibrate some of the tariffs on China. But I 442 00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 8: don't think from Vice President Harris you're likely to see 443 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:09,040 Speaker 8: anything like the sort of ten percent across the board 444 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:11,640 Speaker 8: Terrifike that the former president is proposing. 445 00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,480 Speaker 5: Is there a sense that Congress is going to fight 446 00:21:14,520 --> 00:21:15,720 Speaker 5: to get some of this power back? 447 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 8: Yeah, I think there's there are folks in Congress that 448 00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 8: are that are interested in doing that. And you know, 449 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 8: when when President Trump, when he was first sort of 450 00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:29,360 Speaker 8: rolling out these tariffs in twenty seventeen, twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen, 451 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:34,800 Speaker 8: you saw some bills actually introduced, mostly by Republicans in Congress, 452 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,360 Speaker 8: that would try to claw back some of the president's 453 00:21:37,359 --> 00:21:39,920 Speaker 8: authority to just set tariffs without you know, so much 454 00:21:39,960 --> 00:21:40,840 Speaker 8: as a buy or leave. 455 00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:44,040 Speaker 3: And you know, one of the interesting things about this. 456 00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:47,159 Speaker 8: Year, the kind of end of the twenty four years, 457 00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:50,120 Speaker 8: is that with President Biden stepping down, with former President 458 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:53,400 Speaker 8: Trump running for office again, making this you know, similar 459 00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:56,199 Speaker 8: kinds of ratcheting up proposals, you know, there might be 460 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 8: a window in which we could see Congress try to 461 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:01,680 Speaker 8: take some action to claw back some of this authority 462 00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:03,360 Speaker 8: that it's given the president. 463 00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:08,360 Speaker 2: Just one more question, if we could, what is your 464 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:14,960 Speaker 2: best outcome to either keelback tariffs or restructure tariffs, say 465 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 2: in February or March of next year. 466 00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:22,520 Speaker 8: So you know, I think that what would ideally happen 467 00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:26,120 Speaker 8: here is that Congress would pass a statute that would 468 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,400 Speaker 8: amend a whole bunch of existing authorities that the president 469 00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,600 Speaker 8: has and say, look, the president has authority to impose 470 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:36,840 Speaker 8: new tariffs for a certain period of time, say ninety days, 471 00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:39,240 Speaker 8: one hundred and eighty days, in case there's some sort 472 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:43,480 Speaker 8: of emergency, and then those tariffs automatically sunset unless Congress 473 00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,720 Speaker 8: enacts them by law. And that gives the president the 474 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:51,199 Speaker 8: flexibility to deal with actual emergencies without creating the kind 475 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:54,000 Speaker 8: of situation we live in today in which the president 476 00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:57,640 Speaker 8: is basically using tariffs to set what amounts to sort 477 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:01,760 Speaker 8: of domestic tax policy. And that would really restore Congress's 478 00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:05,679 Speaker 8: role in setting what is effectively tax fancy. 479 00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 3: This has been wonderful, Thank you so much. Tim Meyer 480 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:22,200 Speaker 3: out on YouTube. 481 00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:25,040 Speaker 2: The most important project of the day, the Lisa Matteo 482 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:28,320 Speaker 2: Hour the front pages. My agent just called it Lisa 483 00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:30,239 Speaker 2: and said, I have to sit up straight. So I'm 484 00:23:30,280 --> 00:23:33,520 Speaker 2: sitting up straight for the Lisa Matteo Hour. 485 00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:34,600 Speaker 7: What do you got to thank you? 486 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:36,359 Speaker 9: Oh and by the way, a quick shout out I 487 00:23:36,400 --> 00:23:38,400 Speaker 9: forgot to mention yesterday in the live chat. I think 488 00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:42,240 Speaker 9: it was Tom or tim Uh said the newspapers segment 489 00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:43,400 Speaker 9: needs to go an hour. 490 00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 3: I'm with him. 491 00:23:45,240 --> 00:23:46,240 Speaker 5: Get that sponsored. 492 00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:48,720 Speaker 7: Oh I missed, Yeah. 493 00:23:48,960 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 9: Skimmed over that one. We're starting with the Paris Olympics. 494 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:55,120 Speaker 9: All right, it's barely begun. Yes, soccer games started. Okay, 495 00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:59,119 Speaker 9: but there's already a cheating scandal that started with the Olympics. Okay, 496 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:02,399 Speaker 9: this is for women soccer. This is from the Washington Post. 497 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,760 Speaker 9: They say that Bev Priestman she will not coach Canada 498 00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,640 Speaker 9: and its Olympic women's soccer game against New Zealand today. 499 00:24:09,800 --> 00:24:12,439 Speaker 9: The reason why is because members of her staff they 500 00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:17,840 Speaker 9: drew They flew drones over New Zealand's practices on Friday 501 00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:19,920 Speaker 9: and Monday. I guess they were trying to get a 502 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:23,159 Speaker 9: little inside peak as to what they were doing. But 503 00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:25,320 Speaker 9: she put out a statement. The coach said that she 504 00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 9: is responsible for the conduct. She said she decided to 505 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,879 Speaker 9: voluntarily withdraw from coaching. She apologized to the players of 506 00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,320 Speaker 9: New Zealand and team Canada, but she said she didn't 507 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:36,840 Speaker 9: know that the recordings were being taken. 508 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:41,080 Speaker 2: I'm like, it's not into this as anybody can be. 509 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,680 Speaker 2: And I'm fascinated to see the opening ceremonies because they're 510 00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:45,280 Speaker 2: going down. 511 00:24:45,160 --> 00:24:48,840 Speaker 3: The river, I know, or up the river, which but yeah, I. 512 00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,520 Speaker 2: Can't imagine, you know, by the pone nuth and you know, 513 00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 2: the rebuilding of Notre Dame to see however they're going 514 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 2: to do. 515 00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:57,520 Speaker 3: What are they going to be in the party boats? Sweeny? 516 00:24:57,560 --> 00:25:00,240 Speaker 3: When Sweeney goes over, he's on the dinner boat. You know, 517 00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:02,800 Speaker 3: he gets tickets. I can't get tickets in Paris. 518 00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:04,760 Speaker 5: But that'll be interesting, it'll be fine, it'll be it's 519 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:05,840 Speaker 5: spectacular TV. 520 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,520 Speaker 3: I think tomorrow we get there at least. So what's next? 521 00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 9: Okay, Oh this is big now. Its real life succession 522 00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:14,959 Speaker 9: playing out for the Murdoch family. Okay, So the New 523 00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:17,120 Speaker 9: York Times they got their hands on a court document. 524 00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,159 Speaker 9: It showed that Rupert Murdoch in this legal battle with 525 00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,359 Speaker 9: his three children, he's looking to change the family's trust 526 00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:26,480 Speaker 9: to hand control of the media empire only to his 527 00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:30,439 Speaker 9: oldest son Lachlan instead of all four kids. So the 528 00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:33,440 Speaker 9: Times are saying it caught his kids, James Elizabeth Bruden's 529 00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:35,760 Speaker 9: by surprise. Now they want to challenge the action. This 530 00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:40,399 Speaker 9: is succession, I mean, it's playing out in real Well, can. 531 00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:43,960 Speaker 2: You run an enterprise like that by committee? 532 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:47,679 Speaker 5: No, but that's certainly what he What Rupert did at 533 00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:49,600 Speaker 5: the beginning was is I'm going to set up they're 534 00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:52,960 Speaker 5: all equal. After I die, they figure it out. But 535 00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:56,159 Speaker 5: now what he's saying is, oh, my three of my 536 00:25:57,359 --> 00:26:01,040 Speaker 5: offspring they don't necessarily share the editorial view that I 537 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:05,600 Speaker 5: and my son Lachlan share for Fox in particular way, 538 00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,720 Speaker 5: and so we need to get ahead of that before anything. 539 00:26:08,920 --> 00:26:11,560 Speaker 3: He's not taken equity from him. It's just who's gonna run? 540 00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:15,080 Speaker 5: Who's gonna run exactly? Okay, Yeah, and that it's gonna be. 541 00:26:15,119 --> 00:26:18,679 Speaker 5: I mean, you have ano series about this, maybe call it, 542 00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:20,320 Speaker 5: I don't know, succession. 543 00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:20,320 Speaker 3: That would be. 544 00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:21,399 Speaker 7: That would be a good story. 545 00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:21,960 Speaker 3: You could do that. 546 00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:25,920 Speaker 2: The idea generation off the Sweeney disk is extraordinary. 547 00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,560 Speaker 9: Next, Okay, you know how parents go back and forth 548 00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:31,840 Speaker 9: with their kids about the screen time? Right, Well, this 549 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,680 Speaker 9: is becoming I know you're gonna work with this. It's 550 00:26:34,720 --> 00:26:38,639 Speaker 9: becoming a thing in zoos with zoo keepers and gorillas. Okay, 551 00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:40,960 Speaker 9: the gorillas are getting too much screen time. 552 00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:42,119 Speaker 5: Who gives them a screen time? 553 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:44,080 Speaker 7: And what screens do they do? It's the thing okay. 554 00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:47,119 Speaker 9: So sometimes as zoo keepers do it, you know, they 555 00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:49,120 Speaker 9: show them their phone and they're amazed because the gorillas 556 00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:52,240 Speaker 9: actually go on and their cognizance that they like to 557 00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:56,080 Speaker 9: watch the videos of themselves and other gorillas, and and 558 00:26:56,119 --> 00:26:56,880 Speaker 9: they go like this. 559 00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:57,280 Speaker 7: To the screen. 560 00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:59,280 Speaker 9: If you are on YouTube, you're watching me, swipe on 561 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 9: the screen. They liked us, wipe and say, okay, next video. 562 00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:04,600 Speaker 9: You know, so they're getting attached to it. But the 563 00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:08,080 Speaker 9: visitors to the zoo are also holding up their phones 564 00:27:08,400 --> 00:27:11,359 Speaker 9: to attract the gorillas because the gorillas. 565 00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:12,280 Speaker 7: Like the videos. 566 00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:14,919 Speaker 9: So the zoos are going back and forth about this. 567 00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,760 Speaker 9: It's it's big battle whether they should allow, whether they 568 00:27:17,800 --> 00:27:20,560 Speaker 9: should not, how much screen time they should have, how 569 00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,280 Speaker 9: much screen time they should not have. I never thought 570 00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 9: I would be talking about that. 571 00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:27,080 Speaker 7: It's becoming a thing. 572 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:29,400 Speaker 9: This was in the Wall Street Journal. Yeah, so it's 573 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 9: becoming a problem in the zoos. 574 00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:33,359 Speaker 5: I think it got to limit the screen time for 575 00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:34,480 Speaker 5: the gorillas, no question. 576 00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:40,880 Speaker 2: The late Julian robertson Oka and his wife, they ponied 577 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:44,520 Speaker 2: up millions so we could do tigers at the Bronx 578 00:27:44,600 --> 00:27:46,040 Speaker 2: Zoo like nothing. 579 00:27:46,520 --> 00:27:49,000 Speaker 3: And you go up there, it's immaculate, and I guess 580 00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:51,000 Speaker 3: it looks a little bit like Africa. I don't know, 581 00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:51,400 Speaker 3: but the. 582 00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:57,919 Speaker 2: Robertson's really really donated an immense amount to trying to 583 00:27:57,960 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 2: make a zoo better than a piece of concrete. 584 00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:04,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, theyob as it has. 585 00:28:04,800 --> 00:28:06,720 Speaker 9: Okay, Tom, I know you're a big fan of your chair, 586 00:28:06,840 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 9: Like the office chair has to be like set and 587 00:28:09,440 --> 00:28:14,920 Speaker 9: perfect and great. Couch demand chair, office chairs. They're on 588 00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:18,000 Speaker 9: the rebound. Now you have furniture maker Miller Nole. They're 589 00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:19,640 Speaker 9: saying they were in this two year rut, but now 590 00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:22,720 Speaker 9: they're seeing corporate clients, global retail orders starting to grow. 591 00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:25,240 Speaker 9: People are coming back to the office, that's what they're saying, 592 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,040 Speaker 9: So now they need the more office chairs. But it's 593 00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:32,240 Speaker 9: beyond this. They're also saying for healthcare facilities, lobby in room, 594 00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:34,800 Speaker 9: patience seating, they need more chairs and more people coming 595 00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:39,040 Speaker 9: into the doctor's office. They're also rethinking instead of like 596 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:44,200 Speaker 9: you know, regular tables and chairs, sofas, coffee tables, office furniture. 597 00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 5: Credit Swiss had the conference table. Then my kids came 598 00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:51,920 Speaker 5: to mind. My oldest kids came to my Bloomberg desk 599 00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 5: and say, Dad, what happened? So they do a little 600 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:56,320 Speaker 5: bit differently here at Bloomberg. 601 00:28:57,600 --> 00:28:59,680 Speaker 9: So that's kind of the Swiss that they're making people. 602 00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:01,880 Speaker 9: You know, they want people to feel better when they 603 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:04,400 Speaker 9: come back to the office, so they're doing lounge areas 604 00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:05,120 Speaker 9: within the office. 605 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:08,000 Speaker 2: It's a huge deal because frankly, most of that stuff, 606 00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:10,000 Speaker 2: particularly the European stuff, doesn't fit me. 607 00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:11,920 Speaker 3: I was in Davos. They put me in a. 608 00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:16,160 Speaker 2: Lovely, lovely, fancy condo way above my pay grade, and 609 00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:16,840 Speaker 2: I sat down on. 610 00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:20,200 Speaker 3: A chair and broke it. No, I just you know 611 00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:21,240 Speaker 3: what else can I say? 612 00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:22,000 Speaker 7: Kidding? 613 00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:27,480 Speaker 3: And I wish they designed things for American size. There's 614 00:29:27,600 --> 00:29:28,560 Speaker 3: there's a very few. 615 00:29:28,600 --> 00:29:31,840 Speaker 2: There's there's one in the recording industry that everybody's the 616 00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:32,600 Speaker 2: standard chair. 617 00:29:33,080 --> 00:29:34,720 Speaker 9: Well you're a bit taller than Americans. 618 00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:37,760 Speaker 3: Vice that we got it one more. 619 00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:39,160 Speaker 8: No, we're good, We're good. 620 00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:43,560 Speaker 3: That's it. Lisa Matteo. The newspapers thank you as well. 621 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:47,120 Speaker 2: This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best 622 00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:51,920 Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also 623 00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:56,040 Speaker 2: watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast 624 00:29:56,160 --> 00:30:00,280 Speaker 2: channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from 625 00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:03,480 Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in 626 00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:07,280 Speaker 2: New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 627 00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:11,160 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio, 628 00:30:11,360 --> 00:30:14,560 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.