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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: Poda, All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen cuny twenty five, thirty thirty five, forty forty five

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Speaker 3: fifty and the Kicks block Book College Football World Stunners,

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Speaker 3: Oh my goodness.

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Speaker 1: He stumbled and football the lateral.

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Speaker 3: Turn the counter on the inside.

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Speaker 1: Don't you believe I tap them up the field to night.

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Speaker 3: It's not the sage the dog the.

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Speaker 1: Fuck, It's the sage of the fight in the roll.

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Speaker 3: What's up the Generate Nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 3: on Campus Podcast presented by Bett NNGM. This is the

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Speaker 3: Week nine college football betting preview. I'm Stucky and joining

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Speaker 3: me as always is Colin Wilson. Colin's had some very

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Speaker 3: exciting weekends of awesome collegeball matchups. This one isn't the

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Speaker 3: prettiest state, so you know what that means. Get ready

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Speaker 3: for chaos.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I one hun a percent agree. I think we're

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Speaker 1: gonna get some upsets this week. What I'm excited about

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Speaker 1: Stuck also is that a lot of these win totals

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Speaker 1: are like i'd say, over half the ones that I

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Speaker 1: placed early in the season, They're starting to get decided.

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Speaker 1: Like I don't have to sweat in Nevada anymore. I

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Speaker 1: don't have to sweat Arkansas State anymore. The fact that

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Speaker 1: we're getting into action, really close to having a football

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Speaker 1: game every single day, Are you serious? You gotta love it.

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Speaker 1: It's just a perfect time of year.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, we don't have to wait for football

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Speaker 3: every day for the next twenty seven days. We're recording

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Speaker 3: this on Thursday evening, there is at least one football game.

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Speaker 3: I'd said that there's not one every day in November.

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Speaker 3: The Wednesday before Thanksgiving there's no football game. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: And speaking of Maction, I will have my mid season

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Speaker 3: Maction Manifesto, like twelve thousand words. I think it's gonna

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Speaker 3: be about every team. I've already started on it. It

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Speaker 3: is labor intensive, but a labor of love. So I

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Speaker 3: will tweet that out make sure everyone READSA that that'll

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Speaker 3: be out on Monday. With weekday Maction starting Tuesday, it's

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Speaker 3: a crazy Mack years. There's a lot to catch up on.

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Speaker 3: Like only four teams have started the same quarterback all year, Like,

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Speaker 3: there's backups all over the place. It's so it's the

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Speaker 3: wild Wild West in the MAC this year.

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Speaker 1: I can't wait to read it to see if Northern Illinois

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Speaker 1: is still the villain. I'm not sure there's still the

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Speaker 1: villain right now. Buffalo is my villain, so we'll see.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Buffalo's by Villa too. Yeah, Northern Illinois, I mean

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Speaker 3: they were down of their third string quarterback, I think

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Speaker 3: Paxton Lynch's little brother, who's like their running quarterback. They

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Speaker 3: had both their top quarterbacks hurt last week. But they

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Speaker 3: you know, they won every one possession game last year.

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Speaker 3: Now they're losing one possession games. And they were had

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Speaker 3: a lot of luck on fourth down last year. Now

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Speaker 3: they're unlucky on fourth downs. The regression monster has hit NIU,

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Speaker 3: which is why it wasn't closets and have only two

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Speaker 3: wins on the air, and there's some quarterback injuries. But

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Speaker 3: I digress before we get into Friday night lights and

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Speaker 3: then we'll get into our market games run down and

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Speaker 3: yes they'll be trash. I have my trash segment as always.

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Speaker 3: Heads up to our listeners out there, this week mark

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Speaker 3: the return of the NBA. Yeah means lifelong NBA fanatics

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Speaker 3: like myself can dive into action networks new and improved

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Speaker 3: NBA podcast buckets every weekday this NBA season. Yep, that's

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Speaker 3: every weekday. Shout out to Matt Moore. So if you're

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Speaker 3: into betting the NBA, check out the Buckets podcast wherever

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Speaker 3: you like to listen. All right, let's get into the

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Speaker 3: weekate slate, starting with some Friday night lights.

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Speaker 1: Let's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

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Speaker 3: Hey, let's go play some football. All right. We have

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Speaker 3: two games on Friday, ECU at BYU. The more exciting

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Speaker 3: game bas a three point home favored over under sixty three.

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Speaker 3: You know this is an intriguing game. ECU is just

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Speaker 3: off a blowout win against ucf al a pretty misleading

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Speaker 3: box score benefited from some turnovers and other factors. Holt

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Speaker 3: Naylers is balling. The ECU run defense is elite, like

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Speaker 3: illegal leite. It's crazy. Mike Houston's winning a run defense

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Speaker 3: there and some bodies up front. He's finally got them.

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Speaker 3: ECU can't you know, isn't really running the ball? Well,

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Speaker 3: they can't run block and then on the other side,

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Speaker 3: and their secondary is pretty bad and vulnerable the other side.

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Speaker 3: B why you can't run the ball, So they're not

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Speaker 3: gonna run it here against ECU. He would think that

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Speaker 3: they're gonna come out slinging it and they their defense

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Speaker 3: has fallen off a cliff. So when I first look

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Speaker 3: at this game, my initial thought would be, Okay, both

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Speaker 3: teams are going to sling it around the air and

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Speaker 3: it's just gonna be kind of shootout vibes. Both secondaries

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Speaker 3: can be exploited. I don't if either bothers running the ball,

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Speaker 3: it's gonna be a waste of time. Will be why

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Speaker 3: you be healthy that receiver is a question, But I

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Speaker 3: think both passing offenses can have success here. What is

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Speaker 3: going on with the BYU defense and what do you

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Speaker 3: see in this game?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean BYU's defense we've not has been bad

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Speaker 1: for quite a while. Can't tackle anybody, can defend the pass.

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Speaker 1: And you know, when I look at this game, I thought, well,

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Speaker 1: this is a spot maybe where we should play East Carolina.

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Speaker 1: But then when I kind of dug further into it,

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Speaker 1: the fact that running back Christopher Brooks is out for

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Speaker 1: BYU means there's going to be more passing. And yes,

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Speaker 1: I know wide receiver Cody Epps has also been ruled out,

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Speaker 1: but Puka Nakua is back, and both Epps and Nakua

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Speaker 1: are very explosive targets there. I think they're the only

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Speaker 1: ones that are over two yards per route run. You're right,

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Speaker 1: this is going to be slinging it around, and East

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Speaker 1: Carolina is much better against the run than they are

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Speaker 1: against the pass. They're near dead last and having a

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Speaker 1: pass rush. They're seventy sixth in coverage, and they just

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Speaker 1: have poor success rate and explosive numbers when it comes

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Speaker 1: to passing downs. And when you look at ECU schedule,

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Speaker 1: and this is going to come up with another team

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Speaker 1: we're going to talk about later. Ninth straight game next

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Speaker 1: week is a bye. I'm not really sure how in

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Speaker 1: bet this is. They are in a non conference game,

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Speaker 1: going to elevation by week, coming up aspirations. Outside of

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Speaker 1: whatever this, they're going to make a bowl Temple's you know,

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Speaker 1: they got five wins Temple's last game of the year.

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Speaker 1: I'm not really sure how much EAC was into this game,

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Speaker 1: but the fact that they are a great rush defense

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Speaker 1: and that's not what BYU is gonna do. I think

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Speaker 1: that might be on the Cougars here, which I didn't

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Speaker 1: think I was when I first thought about this game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it could be a lot. At YU comes out throwing.

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Speaker 3: I think he always have success to throw the ball.

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Speaker 3: I mean Easu's defense top twenty in EPA per rush

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Speaker 3: and rush success rate, their pass defense outside the top

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Speaker 3: one hundred and both. So you know BYU likes to

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Speaker 3: throw the ball and they cannot run it. By you

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Speaker 3: can't run it. They are one hundred outside the top

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Speaker 3: one hundred and rush success rate, and their pass offense

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Speaker 3: has been really good despite some injuries at quarterback, and yeah,

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Speaker 3: you can throw on EASU and then the BYU defense

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Speaker 3: just across the board has been horrific. I mean you're

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Speaker 3: talking one hundred outside the top hundred in basically every metric.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I think that this could turn into the shootout.

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Speaker 3: And I don't hate the call on BYU buying them low,

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Speaker 3: but I do think yous to use offense a lot

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Speaker 3: of success. If if the kid Bennett for Liberty, like

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Speaker 3: in all their injuries on offense could shred them, I mean, Holt,

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Speaker 3: Naylers and these receivers could as well. But I think

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Speaker 3: b YU will have no problem scoring here. And uh yeah,

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Speaker 3: the the elevation and the fatigue might catch up the

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Speaker 3: ECU in the second half here and they're like you

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Speaker 3: said there's a chance they could come out flat.

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Speaker 1: Ninth game in a row is a lot.

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Speaker 3: It's a lot. Yeah, you you'll you start to see

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Speaker 3: a especially when teams go on the road. You start

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Speaker 3: to see you'll start to see the effects of that,

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Speaker 3: especially in second half of games. All Right, the other

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Speaker 3: game is disgusting. But I'm wearing a Florida International shirt

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Speaker 3: because I said I'd buy it as Charlotte because Charlotte

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Speaker 3: lost out right, FIU is hosting Louisiana Tech. If I

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Speaker 3: use a six and a half point home dog over

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Speaker 3: under fifty seven, I did say last week, I f

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Speaker 3: IU if they get Chambers back would be a huge chop.

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Speaker 3: He went bananas. He's an awesome receiver, he's their best

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Speaker 3: player by far. To assume he's back here, La Tech

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Speaker 3: has quarterback questions. This game is ross. You assume no

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Speaker 3: one's going to be at this game again. I remember

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Speaker 3: that had the Miami Vice field of the coolest shit.

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Speaker 3: There was no one there when they played Friday night.

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Speaker 3: The other week makes sense of this horrendous game.

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Speaker 1: Well, Parker McNeil is the name that you need to

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Speaker 1: pay attention to. This number which both you took, did

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Speaker 1: you take it on the app. I know I took

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Speaker 1: it on the app when Florida International was like seven

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Speaker 1: and a half eight it was above a touchdown, and

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Speaker 1: I you know the way that Florida National has been playing,

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Speaker 1: I knew that this was going to come down. But

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Speaker 1: now we're as stuck. He and I are recording this,

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Speaker 1: We're sitting it around six six and a half and

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Speaker 1: it's continuing to drop. And that is because second string

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Speaker 1: quarterback for Louisiana Tech, Matthew Downing, is definitely out. Parker

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Speaker 1: McNeil is a game time decision. He is their starter,

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Speaker 1: but he was also knocked out of the game last week. Now,

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Speaker 1: in that overtime game, Landry Liddy came in. He's had

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Speaker 1: two appearances this series five a passing, but they did

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Speaker 1: not win in overtime because his attempt and overtime he

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Speaker 1: threw it maybe ten yards away from where his target was.

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Speaker 1: Florida Nationals covered three or four hourright win against Charlotte

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Speaker 1: last week. They are seventh in the nation and pass

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Speaker 1: rush like I had a double check like clear my eyes,

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Speaker 1: Florida National has a pass rush, So that doesn't sound

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Speaker 1: too good for Landry Lyddy who's the third string quarterback.

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Speaker 1: But keep an eye on Parker McNeil. That's the big

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Speaker 1: name because if he is in for Louisiana Tech, you're

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Speaker 1: going to see a bounce on this back up to seven.

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Speaker 1: Otherwise Florida Nashal can flat out win this game.

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Speaker 3: I will not be voter in that game FIU. I

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Speaker 3: need a break for a week from FIU. All right,

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Speaker 3: let's I will always have my cover on Yukon as

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Speaker 3: a favorite at FIU. All right, let's move on to

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Speaker 3: some more meaningful games and ones that everyone will watch

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Speaker 3: on Saturday. Let's get into our marquee games of the weekend.

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Speaker 4: It's another fabulous weekend of college football. Let's check out

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Speaker 4: the marquee matchups we'll all end up bedding for week nine.

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Speaker 3: All right, there's only three. We'll have seven in the

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Speaker 3: rundown before I get to my trash. Let's kick things off.

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Speaker 3: We have a nice separation of time or one at noon,

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Speaker 3: one at three thirty, and one at seven. Let's start

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Speaker 3: at noon on Fox Ohio State at Penn State. Penn

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Speaker 3: State fourteen and a half point underdog over under sixty

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Speaker 3: and a half. Very intriguing game here. Penn State has

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Speaker 3: been an weird team to kind of crack on a

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Speaker 3: week to week basis. You had last week against Minnesota.

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Speaker 3: I don't know where all that came from, but all

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Speaker 3: of a sudden, the passing offense looks really good and

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Speaker 3: the run defense that was probably what I was most

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Speaker 3: impressed by against Minnesota's size. So kids, Sean Clifford to

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Speaker 3: have another good game here or will he turn into

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Speaker 3: a pumpkin? I don't know. That's one of the big

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Speaker 3: handicaps here because contrary to popular belief, Penn State can't

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Speaker 3: run the ball. You know, people are like, yeah, supposed

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Speaker 3: to have bounced offense. They have more talent running back,

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Speaker 3: but just not working there outside the top hundred and

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Speaker 3: rush success rate EPA per rush, and I don't think

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Speaker 3: that that's they're gonna have much success running it against

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Speaker 3: Ohio State. So I'll be curious to see how Penn

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Speaker 3: State plays this. I think their best chance is to

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Speaker 3: come out tempo and then hope you get the good

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Speaker 3: Clifford and throw the ball. The more interesting handicaps on

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Speaker 3: the other side of the ball. And by the way,

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Speaker 3: no matter what you look at with Ohio State, they're

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Speaker 3: number one in every metric because they've played nobody, so

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Speaker 3: it it's hard to really break down. I mean, even

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Speaker 3: against Iowa last week, a really good defense, They've only

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Speaker 3: had three hundred and fifty yards. It's not like their

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Speaker 3: offense was cooking despite fifty four points. You know, they

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Speaker 3: ran the ball thirty times for sixty six yards, which

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Speaker 3: I found interesting as ilhan i was a really good defense.

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Speaker 3: But Iowa had six turnovers, went one of four on

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Speaker 3: fourth down and one of thirteen on third down. Like

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Speaker 3: that's just their complete ineptitude. They just gave the game

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Speaker 3: a way to Ohio State. So, you know, Jackson Smith,

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Speaker 3: the Jigma still banged up. Are we sure this Ohio

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Speaker 3: State team is, you know, ready to come out and

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Speaker 3: start cooking? Right, because like and the defense too. You know,

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Speaker 3: they dominated Michigan State. Michigan State was all beat up

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Speaker 3: and we'll talk about them later, but remember the notreed

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Speaker 3: ame game. It was. So it's really hard to figure

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Speaker 3: out who Ohio State is right now. I mean I

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Speaker 3: have them as the top rated team in the country,

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Speaker 3: but I show value on Penn State here. I make

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Speaker 3: the line like thirteen, so I should take over two

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Speaker 3: touchdowns here. I also think that the Ohio State defense,

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Speaker 3: you know, could be in for maybe a little early shock. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: just they haven't faced the top fifty offense this year.

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Speaker 3: And if you get good Sewn Clifford out here in

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Speaker 3: front of the awesome home crowd, I could see Penn

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Speaker 3: State making this game early. Now the Michigan game scares me. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: the Michigan game. You have an Alburg game, you look good.

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Speaker 3: You have the Minnesota gat it look good. You have

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Speaker 3: a couple bad opponents may look bad, and the Michigan

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Speaker 3: just destroyed them. But I'm kind of intrigued by Penn

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Speaker 3: State plus seven and a half first half. I think

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Speaker 3: that they can come out. Maybe Ohio State takes some

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Speaker 3: time to adjust. This is Penn State super Bowl because

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Speaker 3: I think that with the fourteen and a half, like,

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Speaker 3: I think Penn State has to stay close here early

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Speaker 3: or this gets ugly. But this is not the easiest handicap.

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Speaker 3: But I think it's Penn State or nothing here. I'm

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Speaker 3: very close to playing the any Lions. What do you

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Speaker 3: see here?

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Speaker 1: I just played it. I was throwing money across the

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Speaker 1: counter there is I still can't believe what Penn State's

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Speaker 1: numbers are when it comes to PBu Stucky. In case

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Speaker 1: you haven't seen, Penn State is lapping college football and

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Speaker 1: pass breakups. I think they have fifty eight and the

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Speaker 1: next closest to them is somewhere around forty two.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. I should have Yeah, I should have mentioned that.

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Speaker 3: By the way, because a lot of State wants to

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Speaker 3: throw the ball, they wouldn't run. They but that's where

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Speaker 3: their most dangerous. The pet State has one of the

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Speaker 3: most talented secondaries in the country, led by Joey Porter Jr.

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Speaker 1: Yes, Yeah, they are putting up numbers that are just

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Speaker 1: absolutely insane right now. When it comes from defending the pass,

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Speaker 1: you can't put a ball up in the air. It

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Speaker 1: will get knocked down. And I might be the only

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Speaker 1: person in the country that covers college football that might

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Speaker 1: say this. I think CJ. Stroud has a little bit

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Speaker 1: of fools gold. There's some things in his numbers I'm

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Speaker 1: not agreeing with whatsoever. Yeah, twenty eight touchdowns and four interceptions,

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Speaker 1: and that's the reason why he's lea leading in the

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Speaker 1: Heisman odds. But he only has thirteen big time throws

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Speaker 1: and he has ten turnover worthy plays. That is eye

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Speaker 1: opening compared to what he did last year. He had

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Speaker 1: three turnover worthy plays against Iowa last week. He's almost

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Speaker 1: doubled his turnover worthy play right from last year. So

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Speaker 1: this CJ. Stroud heisman thing, I understand it from a

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Speaker 1: TD to I and T, but it's not showing in

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Speaker 1: the numbers. And it's not drops. I know Marvin Harrison

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Speaker 1: can't get separation. I know Jackson Smith, you know hasn't

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Speaker 1: been healthy. I understand all these things. But CJ. Stroud

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Speaker 1: it's not drops. It's on him. And so when you

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Speaker 1: get to that part of it, Penn State is knocking

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Speaker 1: things down. CJ. Stroud is not as good throwing, so

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Speaker 1: it's going to have to be Ohio State running the ball.

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Speaker 1: So that kind of helps maybe a case for the under,

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Speaker 1: but it definitely helps a huge inflated spread with Penn State.

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Speaker 1: So if you're betting on Penn State, which I did,

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Speaker 1: then you're betting Sean Clifford doesn't give away a pick

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Speaker 1: six your banking. Ohio State is poor in their red

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Speaker 1: zone defense numbers, which they are, but it's limited. Right,

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Speaker 1: They've had eleven trips by opponents of the red zone,

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Speaker 1: so I don't really put their finishing drives and red

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Speaker 1: zone numbers in, but it's still not good. They're giving

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Speaker 1: up a lot of touchdowns whenever teams get in there,

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Speaker 1: and the Penn State pass defense has to force Ohio

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Speaker 1: State to be one dimensional. I don't think they say

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Speaker 1: can win this game, but cover. Yeah, give it to me.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, there's steam in the market here

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Speaker 1: as you and I are talking. I think it's coming

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Speaker 1: back down to fourteen.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, that's another case for my first half play, because

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Speaker 3: we both agree that Ohio State should have success running

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Speaker 3: the and if Ohio State builds a lead, then you know,

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Speaker 3: and then they can tee off on Clifford on pass

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Speaker 3: like knowing he's gonna throw it, and then they can

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Speaker 3: just go to the ground and like Michigan did be

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Speaker 3: able to extend that way. So I think that Penn

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Speaker 3: State has to stay close early and there might be

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Speaker 3: like you know, the noon kick. Penn State hasn't really

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Speaker 3: faced like anybody. I mean, Ohiskin hasn't faced anybody, so

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Speaker 3: there might be like a little shock to the system

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Speaker 3: facing like a real offense early, a real defense. You know,

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Speaker 3: they got the face Iowa last week, but they I

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Speaker 3: could see Penn State starting fast here and I think

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Speaker 3: that's what they have to do in order to have

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Speaker 3: a chance. Look, James Franklo has played Michigan close historically.

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Speaker 3: I don't really know what that means, but if you

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Speaker 3: take any credence in that that he has, they usually

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Speaker 3: will lose bag one or two like that. There's been

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Speaker 3: a couple of times where they at home, they would

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Speaker 3: be really close and then just couldn't pull it out.

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Speaker 1: But he said that in his pressure this week, he

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Speaker 1: said that this week the reason Franklin's you know, Franklin

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Speaker 1: said that we have to show things that we've never shown,

337
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Speaker 1: but we have to do things and execute things that

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Speaker 1: we've never put on film. So to this point and

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Speaker 1: the reason why this penns team usually covers, there's some

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Speaker 1: offensive plays in there that have been kept in the bag.

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Speaker 1: We just need Sean Clifford not the bottom out here

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Speaker 1: for one game, please.

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Speaker 3: There's a lot of errands, like sometimes you get good Clifford,

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Speaker 3: sometimes you get bad Clifford. And we have a big

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Speaker 3: sample size of that. It's not like he's a pressure

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Speaker 3: and we're still trying to figure out who he is.

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Speaker 3: Above two touchdowns and above a touchdown in the first half,

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Speaker 3: I think the look is Penn State. All right, let's

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Speaker 3: move on to our second marquee game of the day,

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Speaker 3: Oklahoma State at Kansas State. Kansas State's a one and

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Speaker 3: a half point favorite over under fifty six games at

352
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Speaker 3: three point thirty on Fox. Don't have to change your

353
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Speaker 3: main TV if you're betting on these two main games.

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Speaker 3: People know my thoughts on Oklahoma State. Go Pokes. I

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Speaker 3: I'm on Kansas State here, I will be on Kansas

356
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Speaker 3: State more. Will Howard's gonna go, which is good enough

357
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Speaker 3: for me. I don't think Adrian Martinez is gonna play,

358
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Speaker 3: but he's questionably as a knee injury. He took himself

359
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Speaker 3: out of the game because of it last week. I'm

360
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Speaker 3: assuming it's up to him. But Will Howard's getting most

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Speaker 3: of the first team reps, and I think all the

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Speaker 3: first team reps this week so far. Look, Oklahoma State,

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Speaker 3: I gotta give them credit this year, but there's there's

364
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Speaker 3: holes in this team. They're kind of like that. They

365
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Speaker 3: remind me of the giants in the NFL, like they're

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Speaker 3: just finding ways to win. Like last week, you get

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Speaker 3: fourteen to nothing penalties, you get Texas missing a field

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Speaker 3: goal late, you get three Texas turnovers, you know they

369
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Speaker 3: were big turno. You know, at the end of the game,

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Speaker 3: he threw two picks. You have another turnover early in

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Speaker 3: the game, a couple turnover on downs. Yes, Oklahoma State

372
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Speaker 3: turned it over twice, but it didn't lead to any

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Speaker 3: Texas points. You know, they had a muff punt and

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Speaker 3: then Texas turned it over on downs. Quinn Ewers just

375
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Speaker 3: turned into a pumpkin in the second half and he

376
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Speaker 3: just couldn't make it. I don't know if it was

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Speaker 3: the win. I don't know if it was his mental

378
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Speaker 3: state as a freshman. I don't know if he was

379
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Speaker 3: dealing with something. But you know, one thing Texas did

380
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Speaker 3: well all game is they ran all over Oklahoma State.

381
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Speaker 3: They ran for six and a half yards per carry.

382
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Speaker 3: One thing Oklahoma State couldn't do is they couldn't run

383
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Speaker 3: the ball as they haven't been able to do all year.

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Speaker 3: And that's big against Kansas State because Kansas State's secondary

385
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Speaker 3: is top twenty in EPA for past this year. Oklahoma

386
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Speaker 3: State's also doing with a lot of injuries. It had

387
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Speaker 3: six starters out, might have up to seven missing in

388
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Speaker 3: this game. And I think that just from a you know,

389
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Speaker 3: a spot perspective and I know Gundy's with fifteen to

390
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Speaker 3: two against the spread. As a dog, that is to me,

391
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Speaker 3: that is completely meaningless here. And these stats as a

392
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Speaker 3: dog is like the spread is one like come on,

393
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Speaker 3: it's not like he's catching like ten here. But you

394
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Speaker 3: know what, I look at Oklahoma State, they have to

395
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Speaker 3: be absolutely guessed physically mental. They're doing with a ton

396
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Speaker 3: of injuries. This is their fifth Big twelve game of

397
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Speaker 3: the month. They've all you know, most of them are

398
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Speaker 3: right down. The last who went right down to the wire. Meanwhile,

399
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Speaker 3: Kansas State had to buy two weeks ago, should be

400
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Speaker 3: much more arrested. They have a couple of bumps and bruises,

401
00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:22,040
Speaker 3: specifically to Adrian Martinez. I'm hearing from a little birdie

402
00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 3: that Duz Vaughan will be good to go. Look a

403
00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:27,840
Speaker 3: bit's funny that the Oklahoma State Kansas State in this game.

404
00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:29,920
Speaker 3: This will be a third straight year that Oklahoma State

405
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Speaker 3: has faced a backup quarterback in this game. Assuming Will

406
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Speaker 3: Howard goes, Kansas State will be able to lean on

407
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Speaker 3: its ground game here wear down this exhausted, beat up

408
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:42,879
Speaker 3: Oklahoma State defense. Look also their bottom ten in the

409
00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:46,119
Speaker 3: country in early down EPA. That is a bad sign

410
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Speaker 3: for this defense. I'll take the more rested team with

411
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Speaker 3: the superior rushing attack and defense in a favorable spot

412
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Speaker 3: at home. And for what it's worth, since Chris Climbent

413
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Speaker 3: took over the job at Kansas State, if he covers

414
00:21:02,160 --> 00:21:04,879
Speaker 3: this game, he will be the most profitable coach against

415
00:21:04,880 --> 00:21:08,080
Speaker 3: the spread over that spent. If he doesn't, it's Gundy.

416
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Speaker 3: This is for the against the spread crown of college

417
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Speaker 3: football head coaches. It's called it took over at Kansas State.

418
00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,919
Speaker 3: Both of these guys have been absolutely money when you

419
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Speaker 3: backed him. Eball Wildcats. Kansas State gets it done at home,

420
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Speaker 3: the voodoo show ends and the frauds can go away. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: So we just got news like sixteen minutes ago that

422
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Speaker 1: it looks like Adrian Martinez his game time decision. Dude,

423
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Speaker 1: So Adrian Martinez is really the one holding this number up.

424
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Speaker 1: I can't promote the action app enough. There was a

425
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Speaker 1: couple books holding Oklahoma State plus three on open and

426
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Speaker 1: then by Sunday night it was Kansas State plus one

427
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Speaker 1: and a half. So I dipped on both of those.

428
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Speaker 1: You know, took the under earlier today because of the

429
00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:55,119
Speaker 1: news could have been you know, bad, but you can

430
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:56,959
Speaker 1: easily get out of that now too if you want.

431
00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:58,960
Speaker 1: But if you're gonna go with this game, I mean,

432
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:01,879
Speaker 1: you're really waiting for Adrian Martinez because Will Howard, I

433
00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:04,920
Speaker 1: mean ten designed rushing yards. I'm sorry, ten designed rushing

434
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 1: attempts against TCU, and he just had thirty yards on

435
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 1: those gap runs with pulling linemen. They didn't run any

436
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,960
Speaker 1: zone reads whatsoever, which is what Martinez uses about thirty

437
00:22:12,960 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 1: percent of the time. You know, the Oklahoma State defense,

438
00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 1: they're eighth and stuff right, and fourteenth in the line

439
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:20,119
Speaker 1: yard So those numbers are kind of falling as the

440
00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:22,840
Speaker 1: season goes along. Texas was six point four per carry.

441
00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:26,120
Speaker 1: TCU is five point two per carry. So they've had

442
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:28,760
Speaker 1: a lot of success against this Oklahoma State defense. And

443
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:31,680
Speaker 1: that's where you hear Stuckey and myself and some others

444
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:33,920
Speaker 1: say this Oklahoma State defense is not as good as

445
00:22:33,960 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 1: what everybody thinks it is. And then you go when

446
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:37,919
Speaker 1: you look at the game logs, right.

447
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 3: They do's have injuries too. They've lost like two defensive

448
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,359
Speaker 3: linemen might be out. You know, they have receivers that

449
00:22:42,400 --> 00:22:45,119
Speaker 3: are hurt, guys in the secondary. Yeah, it is a

450
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 3: beat up defense.

451
00:22:47,119 --> 00:22:48,680
Speaker 1: The number in the market right now says that Adrian

452
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:51,960
Speaker 1: Martinez is going to play. There's if it's Will Howard,

453
00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 1: then that number needs to move about three points. So

454
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:56,919
Speaker 1: everything in the market says that Adrian Martinez is going

455
00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,880
Speaker 1: to play. You know, be careful. Coach Climban has yet

456
00:22:59,920 --> 00:23:02,440
Speaker 1: to be Gundy in three head to heads, so under

457
00:23:02,480 --> 00:23:04,960
Speaker 1: for me, officially, we'll see how it goes Adrian Martinez

458
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:06,119
Speaker 1: on which side I'm gonna play?

459
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, look, they faked Oklahoma States when they

460
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 3: played them. They've always had a backup quarterback. Last year

461
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 3: when they played Jaron Lewis started for Kansas State, and

462
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,560
Speaker 3: the year before that, Will Howard got the start because

463
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 3: what's his name, Skyle Thompson was hurt. Yeah, a third

464
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:27,120
Speaker 3: show year backup starts. I actually make this game four

465
00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 3: and a half with Adrian Martinez. It's a little it's

466
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:32,399
Speaker 3: a little bit of a drop off with Howard, but

467
00:23:32,480 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 3: I actually don't think it's that big of a drop off.

468
00:23:34,760 --> 00:23:37,080
Speaker 3: I would still play it up to minus two and

469
00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:41,159
Speaker 3: a half and give me the Wildcats. As a reminder,

470
00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 3: the Big Bets on Campus podcast is probably presented by

471
00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 3: bet MGM. So kick off the new Pro Football season

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Speaker 3: dot com For terms and conditions. Arizona, Colorada, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nevada,

476
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Speaker 3: New Jersey, New York, Pensylvania, Puerto Rico, Tennessee, Virginia, Washington, DC,

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Speaker 3: or cite credit free bets expire seven days from michouants

482
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Speaker 4: Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem call one hundred Next Step

484
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:28,200
Speaker 4: in Arizona one one hundred five two two forty seven

485
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 4: hundred in Colorado, DC, Kansas, Louisiana, Nevada, Wyoming, ort Virginia

486
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:33,919
Speaker 4: one one hundred two seven zero seven to one one

487
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:37,639
Speaker 4: seven for confidential help. In Michigan twenty hundred gambler in Indiana, Maryland,

488
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 4: New Jersey, or West Virginia one eight hundred bets off

489
00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 4: in Iowa one hundred nine eight one zero zero two three.

490
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:46,159
Speaker 4: In Puerto Rico, call eight seven seven eight Hope NY

491
00:24:46,359 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 4: or text Hope NY. In New York, call or text

492
00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:51,040
Speaker 4: to Tennessee Redline at eight hundred eight nine nine seven

493
00:24:51,080 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 4: eight nine or one eight eight eight seven seven seven

494
00:24:53,440 --> 00:24:55,600
Speaker 4: nine six nine six in Mississippi. In Ontario, if you

495
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 4: have questions or concerns about your gambling or someone close

496
00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,719
Speaker 4: to you, please contact Connects Ontario at one eight six

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00:25:00,800 --> 00:25:03,320
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498
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:05,440
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499
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,680
Speaker 4: in Georgia, Hawaii, Ohio, and Utah and other states were

500
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:10,400
Speaker 4: promimited promotional offers not available in.

501
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:12,960
Speaker 3: Nevada and New York. All right, let's move on to

502
00:25:13,000 --> 00:25:14,960
Speaker 3: our third marque give of the day. Let's go to

503
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:18,679
Speaker 3: the SEC at night. It will be very fun here

504
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 3: at our bars. Let me know if you're in Lexington,

505
00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 3: Kentucky at Tennessee. Tennessee is a twelve point home favorite

506
00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 3: over under sixty one. This game's at seven pm Eastern

507
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:33,359
Speaker 3: on ESPN is a really interesting game. Kentucky's coming off

508
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 3: of a bye, Tennessee coming off of a quasi by

509
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:39,800
Speaker 3: the first half, yeah, shout e T. Martin for the

510
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:43,200
Speaker 3: second for the live and second half cover. Maybe Tennessee

511
00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 3: gets Cedric Toeman back. That's he's one of the best

512
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:48,439
Speaker 3: receivers in the country. Don't know if we'll be a

513
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 3: full go, but he's going to be back very soon.

514
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:52,359
Speaker 3: They might just hold him for Georgia, but they might

515
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 3: just want to get him a couple snaps then get

516
00:25:54,600 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 3: him some live run before that game, which is next week.

517
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:59,879
Speaker 3: I don't know if necessarily know if Tennessee's overlooking Kentucky.

518
00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:03,360
Speaker 3: It's like a rivalry. It's Kentucky, but maybe maybe they're

519
00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 3: I mean they're kids, maybe they're they're taking this game

520
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 3: for granted. Have to at least bring it up. This

521
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:12,320
Speaker 3: is a really interesting matchup in that Kentucky these are

522
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 3: complete opfsive teams. By the way, Kentucky is like a

523
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:19,720
Speaker 3: snail and then Tennessee is a super speed racer. Tennessee

524
00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 3: as this electric passing attack. Kentucky wants to lean on

525
00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 3: its run game and Kentucky that's this is what's so

526
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 3: fascinating Kentucky. If you go back the last twenty years,

527
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 3: there are two coaches who are as road under coaches.

528
00:26:33,200 --> 00:26:38,160
Speaker 3: It's Jimbo Fisher, which makes sense, and Mark Stoops. Why

529
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:41,199
Speaker 3: what is and what does Kentucky do Kentucky over the

530
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 3: you know since Stoops has been there, and what do

531
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 3: they usually do in the SCCA by They're playing teams

532
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 3: that are better than them, So what does Kentucky want

533
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 3: to do? Play? Shorten the game, control the clock, run

534
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 3: the ball, limit the amount of possessions, which makes sense

535
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:02,280
Speaker 3: when you're the inferior team. That's what that stoops them out.

536
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 3: The problem is you can't do that here. You can't

537
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 3: run the ball. I know Chris Rodriguez is back, but

538
00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 3: your offensive line stinks. And Tennessee's rundy is elite, like

539
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 3: it's elite any metric you look at. Tennessee's run dy

540
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 3: is elite. Their secondary is not. So does Kentucky come

541
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 3: out here and say, let's throw and go toe to

542
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 3: toe with Tennessee. I think that's the smartest approach, but

543
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:31,879
Speaker 3: it's not in their DNA. They're not like controlling the

544
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,520
Speaker 3: clock and keeping the Tennessee offense on the sidelines and

545
00:27:34,560 --> 00:27:37,160
Speaker 3: wearing them down, taking the crowd out. So I don't

546
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 3: know if Kentucky's gonna play this, because I think they

547
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:42,600
Speaker 3: just should come out and say, let's throw it around

548
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:47,520
Speaker 3: the field, take advantage of the weak point of Tennessee's defense.

549
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:51,200
Speaker 3: But that's never how Stoops plays these games. But he

550
00:27:51,280 --> 00:27:54,199
Speaker 3: should here because Kentucky, the big blue wall is no

551
00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,639
Speaker 3: longer there. They can't just line up and run it.

552
00:27:56,760 --> 00:27:58,800
Speaker 3: They couldn't run it against MAC teams. They're not running

553
00:27:58,800 --> 00:28:01,680
Speaker 3: it against his Tennessee rushdy and that's really good, really good.

554
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 3: So having trouble with this one. I'm higher on Tennessee

555
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 3: than I think everyone in the world. But I not

556
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:11,320
Speaker 3: only make this like eleven eight, So I mean, I

557
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,639
Speaker 3: don't see any value in the side of total. This

558
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:18,200
Speaker 3: game will shatter if Kentucky is just coming out throwing

559
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 3: it all over. This game probably goes under if Kentucky

560
00:28:21,760 --> 00:28:25,639
Speaker 3: plays it like they always play road games in the SEC,

561
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 3: and that's just like run run, run, run, run, run, run,

562
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:32,280
Speaker 3: go very slow. So I don't know, Maybe I look

563
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 3: live at the total depending on how Kentucky is coming

564
00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 3: out early. Very fascinating game from an x's and O standpoint.

565
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 3: What do you see here?

566
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,640
Speaker 1: Well, I said this on Green Day Daily and I'll

567
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 1: say it again here on the podcast. This is the

568
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 1: last time I'm fading Tennessee because the correlations with LSU

569
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen, it is. I learned my lesson from twenty

570
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 1: nineteen LSU, like I was hot on Burrow against Texas

571
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:56,960
Speaker 1: and then I never bet them again for the rest

572
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 1: of the year. Got to the National Championship game in

573
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 1: Vegas with you and my precious Trevor Lawrence got smacked

574
00:29:03,040 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 1: by LSU and Joe Burrows. So I'm seeing a lot

575
00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 1: of correlations here. And what I mean is is math guys,

576
00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:11,600
Speaker 1: you know that keep power ratings and do analytics, they

577
00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:13,480
Speaker 1: can't keep up with where these point spreads are in

578
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:16,480
Speaker 1: the market, and Tennessee just continues to cover them. My

579
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 1: number is eight and a half. So of course anything

580
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 1: in this market right now looks like that there's value

581
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,280
Speaker 1: on the other side. You know, whether I'm you know,

582
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 1: be damned that it doesn't fit for the team that

583
00:29:25,520 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 1: they're playing to actually back them. You know, it's a

584
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 1: tough spot. But I've learned my lesson with LSU a

585
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:33,480
Speaker 1: couple of years ago. Now the problem with LSU and

586
00:29:33,520 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 1: the other correlation, You haven't learned your lesson yet. You

587
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 1: say you will learn your lesson if you lose this weekend.

588
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 1: I lose this, I'm skeptical.

589
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 3: I think I'll get to see you here next week,

590
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:44,160
Speaker 3: same time with a with a Georgia shirt on.

591
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:45,320
Speaker 1: But well s, I don't know.

592
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:46,040
Speaker 3: I don't know.

593
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:48,200
Speaker 1: I think you just lay it and close your eyes

594
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 1: with Tennessee if they blow this one out. So I

595
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 1: think the last correlation I'll make between LSU is that

596
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:58,680
Speaker 1: they couldn't tackle anybody halfway through that schedule, and Vanderbilt

597
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:00,960
Speaker 1: put up thirty points on that twenty nineteen LSU team,

598
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,080
Speaker 1: And then Dave Randa was like, we're having to come

599
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 1: to Jesus meeting and we're going to learn how to tackle.

600
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:07,960
Speaker 1: And that's what's going on here, like mistackles for Tennessee

601
00:30:08,080 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 1: UT Martin there was eleven Bama, there was twelve, LSU,

602
00:30:10,760 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 1: there was twelve. It's too many. They need to be

603
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 1: around five or six per game if if they want

604
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:17,880
Speaker 1: to have a better defense. So UT is still outside

605
00:30:17,880 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 1: the top one undred defensively in havoc and coverage, they're

606
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:22,400
Speaker 1: not going to win a national championship with those numbers.

607
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:24,800
Speaker 1: So we're gonna find out if Tim Banks, a defensive coordinator,

608
00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:27,160
Speaker 1: is going to be able to fix those fundamentals and

609
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 1: if he's going to be able to like pivot off,

610
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 1: you know, a little bit of man play, a little

611
00:30:31,240 --> 00:30:34,760
Speaker 1: bit more zone, be more versatile in their coverage. But

612
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:39,000
Speaker 1: I think what's interesting about this game is that Kentucky

613
00:30:39,080 --> 00:30:42,959
Speaker 1: embraced the tempo last year. Look at that score, forty

614
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 1: five to forty two. It was a one possession game

615
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 1: going into the fourth quarter. Kentucky ultimately lost forty five

616
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 1: to forty two. But if you told Stoops right now,

617
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 1: I'll give you a one possession game and a tempo

618
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 1: atmosphere going to the fourth quarter, I bet you he

619
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 1: would take it. So if you're betting Kentucky, which I am,

620
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:04,479
Speaker 1: the formula is zone defense with safety help on Jalen Hyatt,

621
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:06,840
Speaker 1: you got to sign a spy on Hendon Hooker scrambles.

622
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 1: Will Levis deep passing. He's only had ten Did you

623
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 1: know he only had ten completions this year over twenty yards? Like,

624
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 1: what are they doing with Will Levis? He's not running?

625
00:31:15,320 --> 00:31:17,760
Speaker 3: They missed point you need.

626
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:20,200
Speaker 1: The biggest thing is you need the refs. You know,

627
00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 1: Tennessee is one hundred and twentieth in penalties. I'm not

628
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 1: placing any bets on the team's penalty rate rate, but

629
00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 1: at the same time, you're going to need that assistance

630
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:30,720
Speaker 1: in this game if you're going to take a Kentucky play.

631
00:31:30,760 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 1: So that's the formula. Is Stoops willing to scrap thirty

632
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 1: two seconds per play? Is he willing to get Levis

633
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 1: to throw downfield? Is he willing to go up tempo?

634
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 1: We're going to see. But that is the formula to

635
00:31:41,960 --> 00:31:43,440
Speaker 1: keep this close and try to beat Tennessee.

636
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 3: By the way, that Tennessee Kentucky duck in the ball

637
00:31:46,200 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 3: for forty six minutes in Tennessee only like thirteen. I

638
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:52,280
Speaker 3: think Kentucky around one hundred plays in that game, fifty pass,

639
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 3: fifty run. It was just Tennessee scoring and then on

640
00:31:55,600 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 3: like one play and then Kentucky would get it and

641
00:31:58,680 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 3: drive down the field and then score, and then the

642
00:32:01,640 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 3: same thing if repeating itself. Wold game. All right, let's

643
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 3: move on to the rundown.

644
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 1: I never quit. It's unbelievable.

645
00:32:09,480 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 3: All right, Let's start with a game that I love.

646
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 3: I think Notre Dame wins this game I played, I

647
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,440
Speaker 3: played some three earlier in the week. I would wait,

648
00:32:18,920 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 3: you know, kind of a dead zone on the see

649
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,400
Speaker 3: if it hits three. I still like it it to

650
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:24,640
Speaker 3: an AF though. This is also it's just a bad

651
00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 3: spot for Syracuse potential letdown right, like now all of

652
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 3: their unrealistic aspirations and hopes and dreams are gone. Like

653
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:35,120
Speaker 3: you're not winning the ACC now you can't go to

654
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 3: the college ball playoff, like right, all these things that

655
00:32:37,200 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 3: the kids were thinking as undefeated team. You come back,

656
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 3: you play Notre Dame. A little bit of a letdown here,

657
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:46,160
Speaker 3: noon kick, even if it's in Carrier Dome. And I

658
00:32:46,360 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 3: just my suspicions were confirmed about this Syracuse team that

659
00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:52,960
Speaker 3: they weren't that good. I mean, they lost almost lost

660
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 3: to a bad Virginia team who went one of three

661
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 3: and four down in this both field goal attempts. Syracuse

662
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 3: won by two at home, and then they should have

663
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 3: lost to a beat up Purdue team. Well you know

664
00:33:02,120 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 3: that eighty percent postgame win expectancy. And then last week,

665
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 3: yeah they covered, but they were out gained by about

666
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 3: one hundred and seventy yards. They really benefited from turnovers,

667
00:33:12,680 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 3: and I just just didn't come away impressed. The Notre

668
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 3: Dame has been very inconsistent a week to week basis

669
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 3: the one consistent aspect of the Irish. They've been good

670
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 3: away from home. They hung around at Ohio State, they

671
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 3: outplayed YU, dominated them on a neutral site, and then

672
00:33:26,880 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 3: they crossed North Carolina, which looks more impressive now on

673
00:33:30,080 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 3: the road. And then this just comes down to a matchup.

674
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:33,960
Speaker 3: For the advantage for me, Notre Dame could lean on

675
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 3: nuts ground game, their top twenty five nationally almost every

676
00:33:37,080 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 3: run blocking metric, and they're going up against the Syracuse

677
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 3: defense that doesn't defend the run wether one hundred and

678
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,320
Speaker 3: fifteenth in the country in both rush success rate in

679
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 3: EPA per rush. And they also lost all three starting

680
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 3: defensive linemen from last year, and they've lost multiple defensive

681
00:33:52,640 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 3: linement to injury. They also might be with out their

682
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:58,840
Speaker 3: stark corner back Erret Williams again. So yeah, I just

683
00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:01,000
Speaker 3: think Notre Dame could control the line of scrimmage here,

684
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 3: control the clock, move the chains, get an easy passing situations,

685
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:08,239
Speaker 3: and you know they aren't should have some success running it,

686
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:12,319
Speaker 3: but they're gonna there's gonna be enough negative plays that

687
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:15,279
Speaker 3: Notre Dame can make with its with its password, which

688
00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:18,920
Speaker 3: is the strength of its defense. Fourteenth and sacrate against

689
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:23,440
Speaker 3: a bad offensive line in pass protection. For Syracuse, also

690
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 3: the penalties. Notre Dame not penalized much at all or

691
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 3: well coached not department. Syracuse has a lot of penalties

692
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 3: penalty problem. And also just from a regression standpoint, the

693
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 3: Notre name is dead last in the country and takeaways,

694
00:34:37,680 --> 00:34:39,919
Speaker 3: they're gonna get some soon. I think they come here.

695
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 3: Since two thousand and five, no team has turned to

696
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:45,319
Speaker 3: a larger profit against ranked opponents in the Irish. Think

697
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 3: they add another one here, give me a Notre Dame.

698
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to join you. I just can't figure

699
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 1: out if I'm doing two and a half or I'm

700
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 1: doing money line. And when I first started down this journey,

701
00:34:55,760 --> 00:34:57,759
Speaker 1: I thought I was gonna be on Syracuse because if

702
00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:00,279
Speaker 1: you look at Notre Dame schedule, it's like they have

703
00:35:00,360 --> 00:35:04,160
Speaker 1: a boost because in finishing drives against UNLV, they had

704
00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 1: eleven trips inside the forty for forty four points, you know,

705
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 1: almost the exact same numbers against you nc's defense. And

706
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 1: then on a loss to Stanford, they you know, there

707
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:16,400
Speaker 1: was just three offensive drives past the forty and then

708
00:35:16,400 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 1: a nine trips against BYU just twenty four points. The

709
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:22,759
Speaker 1: Irish are facing defenses that are outside the top seventy five,

710
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 1: and they've built their offensive numbers against some pretty poor defenses.

711
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:29,480
Speaker 1: So I kind of have to take these Notre Dame

712
00:35:29,560 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 1: numbers and set them aside. I can't just automatically assume

713
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 1: all this green that I see in the Syracuse defense

714
00:35:35,640 --> 00:35:40,399
Speaker 1: is going to dominate this pretty one dimensional, boring, conservative

715
00:35:40,440 --> 00:35:43,759
Speaker 1: Notre Dame offense. So let's talk about Michael Meyer the

716
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,799
Speaker 1: tight end, because every other pass target from Pine is

717
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 1: going to go to Michael Meyer. Notre Dame is going

718
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:52,279
Speaker 1: to have a ton of success there. Let's just go

719
00:35:52,280 --> 00:35:54,320
Speaker 1: ahead and look and see what Syracuse has done against

720
00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:57,640
Speaker 1: tight ends the past couple weeks. Clemson's most explosive play

721
00:35:57,680 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 1: last week came from tight end Davis Allen Versus He

722
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,800
Speaker 1: had three catches for fifty one yards. N C State's

723
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:06,919
Speaker 1: most explosive pass with their backup quarterback was the tight

724
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,839
Speaker 1: end Christopher Tootle. They have not been able to keep

725
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 1: tight ends from having explosive plays. The defense got beat

726
00:36:13,280 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 1: up against Clemson, so I'm notredly.

727
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:18,720
Speaker 3: Lost defensive two defensive lineman. Their depth there is young

728
00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:19,439
Speaker 3: and thin.

729
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 1: I don't know if they have the defense right now

730
00:36:22,600 --> 00:36:25,279
Speaker 1: that is at full strength or even half strength to

731
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:28,520
Speaker 1: try even defend tight end Michael Meyer. So fitting right

732
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:33,600
Speaker 1: before Halloween, we're talking about Michael Meyer. Notre Dame is

733
00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 1: going to win this game because Syracuse is going to

734
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,240
Speaker 1: penalty themselves out. They're two beat up at the running

735
00:36:38,239 --> 00:36:41,800
Speaker 1: back position, their defense is completely bruised up. Half the

736
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:44,399
Speaker 1: starters won't even be in the game, and nobody has

737
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 1: been able to defend the tight end position the last

738
00:36:46,680 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 1: two weeks against Clemson NC State. So I'm with you

739
00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:49,839
Speaker 1: on Notre Dame.

740
00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:54,920
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to TCU at West Virginia.

741
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:57,600
Speaker 3: This game's at noon ESPN westera seven and a half

742
00:36:57,640 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 3: point home dog over under sixty eight and a half.

743
00:37:00,920 --> 00:37:03,720
Speaker 3: My you know my thoughts on Oklahoma State and TCU,

744
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 3: and they're in the same exact spot going off on

745
00:37:07,680 --> 00:37:11,880
Speaker 3: the road. Have to be exhausted. So TCU played their

746
00:37:12,000 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 3: rival SMU, and then they played four consecutive ranked conference

747
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 3: opponents Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Kansas State. They had

748
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 3: a stage comebacks in each of the past three one

749
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:28,440
Speaker 3: possession victories. Meanwhile, I mean West Virginia had only has

750
00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:31,520
Speaker 3: only played once since October thirteenth. TC's played every week

751
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:34,839
Speaker 3: sixth straight week their rival SMU on the road, four

752
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:37,120
Speaker 3: straight Conference Right opponents and by the way, all four

753
00:37:37,400 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 3: terrible defenses, just like West Virginia. Besides Kansas State and

754
00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 3: quarterback they all TCU does is get back up quarterbacks.

755
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 3: They knocked out Dylan Gabriel in the first half, knocked

756
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 3: out Jalen Daniels, knocked out Adrian Martinez, then knocked out

757
00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:54,000
Speaker 3: Will Howard at one point, you know, Kannastatey went to

758
00:37:54,040 --> 00:37:56,480
Speaker 3: the third stringet threw a pick the only started quarterback

759
00:37:56,520 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 3: to finish a game over that stretch of Spencer Standers

760
00:37:58,680 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 3: who was clearly hurt in the second half.

761
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:00,160
Speaker 2: Yea.

762
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,359
Speaker 3: So I think that TCU's defensive numbers, which aren't good,

763
00:38:03,719 --> 00:38:06,960
Speaker 3: are even worse than they because of all the backup

764
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:09,799
Speaker 3: quarterbacks that they've gotten to face during games, which is

765
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,880
Speaker 3: even better than facing them. You know, when the backup

766
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 3: quarterback knows and you can practice with the ones that

767
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:17,360
Speaker 3: prepare for the backup. So I think this TCU defense

768
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 3: is exhausted, is vulnerable. Their pass defense in particular, can

769
00:38:21,760 --> 00:38:25,279
Speaker 3: be exploited. And that's all West Virginia does is throw

770
00:38:25,360 --> 00:38:28,719
Speaker 3: the ball at home here and look, even with all

771
00:38:28,760 --> 00:38:31,200
Speaker 3: those breaks, they're still ninety third in EPA per pass

772
00:38:31,239 --> 00:38:35,360
Speaker 3: the TCU defense. So and look for what it's worth,

773
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:38,480
Speaker 3: Sunny Dikes. It's the exact weekend is teams fall off

774
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:40,279
Speaker 3: a cliff and lose every game the rest of the way.

775
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:42,719
Speaker 3: That's what's happened the last three years at SMU. I

776
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:45,200
Speaker 3: know he has a little more talent now. TCU and

777
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,760
Speaker 3: Sunny Dikes went ranked one in ten against the spread

778
00:38:48,960 --> 00:38:52,319
Speaker 3: on the road against an unranked conference opponent. He is

779
00:38:52,360 --> 00:38:55,400
Speaker 3: the least profitable coach in that scenario over the past

780
00:38:55,480 --> 00:38:59,480
Speaker 3: thirty years. One in ten against the spread. TCU might

781
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:01,480
Speaker 3: be running on empty. I mean last week they came

782
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:03,640
Speaker 3: out a little flat against Kantas. Say they're down eighteen

783
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 3: and then you get all the backup quarterbacks. Your adrenaline goes.

784
00:39:06,200 --> 00:39:08,720
Speaker 3: They start making the comeback because Cantas they can't do anything.

785
00:39:09,600 --> 00:39:11,359
Speaker 3: Now I gotta get up again. This is eleven AM

786
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 3: kicked for their time in Morgantown great by Low Spot

787
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:18,440
Speaker 3: of West Virginia after getting embarrassed. I think that they

788
00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:20,920
Speaker 3: can keep this at least within one possession. Should be

789
00:39:20,920 --> 00:39:23,479
Speaker 3: a shootout. West News defense also stinks. For what it's worth,

790
00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 3: they should not get many stops. Be similar to the

791
00:39:25,960 --> 00:39:28,719
Speaker 3: Baylor game. I assume maybe I think they're gonna win

792
00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:30,080
Speaker 3: out right for what it's where, then they'll get like

793
00:39:30,120 --> 00:39:33,719
Speaker 3: a turnover here or there, and they're gonna You're gonna

794
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:35,800
Speaker 3: get a good JT. Daniels game. Give me West Virginia

795
00:39:35,800 --> 00:39:36,600
Speaker 3: plus set on a half.

796
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 1: I'm against you.

797
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:40,880
Speaker 3: I die yeah on TCU.

798
00:39:41,239 --> 00:39:44,240
Speaker 1: Shocker, yeah, shocker. I think if you've got a TCU

799
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,080
Speaker 1: eighteen to one your back pocket, you're not gonna bet

800
00:39:46,080 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 1: on this game. But I think I am gonna bet

801
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:49,719
Speaker 1: on this game. The problem is I can't scoop one

802
00:39:49,719 --> 00:39:51,560
Speaker 1: of these sevens. Every time I get a notification of

803
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:53,080
Speaker 1: sevens out there and I try to go grab it,

804
00:39:53,080 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 1: it's gone. So I'm definitely not scooping seven and a half.

805
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 1: But I think I'm going with you. I mean more.

806
00:39:58,200 --> 00:40:01,640
Speaker 1: I dug into this game, and TCU has been really

807
00:40:01,680 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 1: bad in the first halves. I don't know what's going on.

808
00:40:03,600 --> 00:40:05,880
Speaker 1: Their first half seventeen points the first half against Kansas

809
00:40:05,920 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 1: State thirteen first half first masses.

810
00:40:08,520 --> 00:40:10,920
Speaker 3: That's when they faced started quarterbacks the second.

811
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:16,840
Speaker 1: Thirteen against Oklahoma State. Ten first half points against Kansas

812
00:40:17,960 --> 00:40:19,879
Speaker 1: And you know, I'm losing. I lost the first half

813
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:22,319
Speaker 1: bet on the BBOC Show on Saturday because Kansas State

814
00:40:22,360 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 1: went absolutely berserk in the first half. But you know,

815
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:27,879
Speaker 1: once Joebilespie's been making his halftime adjustments, and yes there's

816
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:30,640
Speaker 1: been some you know, uh, you know, some other quarterbacks

817
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:33,600
Speaker 1: come in TCU. It's just been they've been routing these

818
00:40:33,640 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 1: teams and the Kena beatan TCU is establishing a good

819
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:39,520
Speaker 1: ground attack against the defense that is mid FBS and

820
00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:42,400
Speaker 1: rushing success rate and stuff right, and you know TCU

821
00:40:42,480 --> 00:40:45,920
Speaker 1: has given up more. Also, they're giving up explosive passes.

822
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:48,760
Speaker 1: They've given up more twenty yard pass plays than any

823
00:40:48,760 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 1: team in the country, almost any team in the country.

824
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:54,960
Speaker 1: They've given up thirty four passes over twenty yards. The

825
00:40:55,000 --> 00:40:57,319
Speaker 1: bottom of the FBS is Bandy at thirty eight. So

826
00:40:57,360 --> 00:41:00,320
Speaker 1: they're not that far away from being Vanderbilt level. Now, Now,

827
00:41:00,760 --> 00:41:03,400
Speaker 1: why I am fading West Virginia And I thought this

828
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:05,400
Speaker 1: was going to be the spot. You have to be

829
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:08,359
Speaker 1: able to run the ball against TCU lead running back

830
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 1: Troy Maths Junior. He's out for this game. Third string

831
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 1: Justin Johnson Junior, with fifty five rushing attempts, is now questionable,

832
00:41:15,680 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 1: likely not to play. Saj Donaldson returned as their workhorse,

833
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:21,640
Speaker 1: but he only had twelve carries last week. So then

834
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 1: you asked, does West Virginia have a shot and limiting

835
00:41:24,040 --> 00:41:27,200
Speaker 1: the high powered TCU attack. Neil Brown came out at

836
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 1: his presser and it's like starting corner rashot a Jaia out,

837
00:41:31,000 --> 00:41:34,560
Speaker 1: weak sidelinebacker lay Stixon out. JT. Daniels had his worst

838
00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 1: game of the season, three interceptions all on him. JT.

839
00:41:37,800 --> 00:41:41,439
Speaker 1: Daniels has one big time throw. Joseph Gillespie is going

840
00:41:41,480 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 1: to be bringing the heat and that has not been

841
00:41:43,480 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 1: a good formula for JT. Daniels so far. So I'm

842
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:47,840
Speaker 1: not running out to grab seven and a half. But

843
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:50,640
Speaker 1: at TCU minus seven, I'm playing the frogs. Yeah.

844
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 3: No, I mean I will see if they have the legs.

845
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 3: I mean, this spot here is just so good for

846
00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:54,600
Speaker 3: West Virginia.

847
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 1: Yeah it is.

848
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 3: I don't mind the running back being hurt because West

849
00:41:58,320 --> 00:42:00,440
Speaker 3: you can't run the ball. He pa pass. Yes, they

850
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:04,880
Speaker 3: are thirty fourth success rate on offense. They're nineteenth in

851
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:07,560
Speaker 3: when they passed the ball, and like I said, teas

852
00:42:07,680 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 3: us defense ninety eighth epa per pass. And they've played

853
00:42:12,239 --> 00:42:16,760
Speaker 3: multiple backups and third stringers JT. I want JT. Daniels

854
00:42:16,760 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 3: to cook here. And I don't care who's out in

855
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:20,680
Speaker 3: the Western New defense. They're not getting any stops here.

856
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:23,280
Speaker 3: They gotta cause a couple of tournaments. I'm not expecting

857
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 3: any stops. I'll be hopefully tweeting Country Roads and some

858
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:35,960
Speaker 3: John Denver clips Saturday, almost even West Virginia. All right,

859
00:42:36,000 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 3: let's move on to our next game in the rundown

860
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 3: Arkansas at Auburn Auburn plus three and a half home

861
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 3: dog over under sixty two. This game is at noon

862
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 3: SEC Network. I might throw Auburn in around Robin, but

863
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 3: no real takes here. I'll leave that to you. What

864
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 3: do you got on your boys?

865
00:42:53,120 --> 00:42:54,879
Speaker 1: Whoo pig Sully.

866
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:57,239
Speaker 3: Absolute dumpster fire dumps.

867
00:42:57,680 --> 00:42:59,000
Speaker 1: I don't know how we win a game the rest

868
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 1: of the year. Program up. Give us a death sentence

869
00:43:02,400 --> 00:43:07,759
Speaker 1: Collins talking razorback football. Yeah, I wrote it up over

870
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:09,680
Speaker 1: at Action. You guys can get a full breakdown there.

871
00:43:09,680 --> 00:43:12,319
Speaker 1: But I am on Auburn. Also, I didn't think I

872
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:15,680
Speaker 1: would be, but I would like four, but you know

873
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:17,799
Speaker 1: three and a half. I would take him too. And

874
00:43:17,840 --> 00:43:19,360
Speaker 1: Pyman came out and he said, listen, this is the

875
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 1: healthiest Arkansas can possibly be. Unless you've been named out

876
00:43:23,080 --> 00:43:26,080
Speaker 1: for the season like Catalan, you're expected to play in

877
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:29,359
Speaker 1: this game. So that's Kry Johnson, Jayden Johnson return at

878
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 1: corners position. Miles Slusher is going to be back, even

879
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:34,440
Speaker 1: though he's listened his questionable. Pittman says, they're all going

880
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:36,919
Speaker 1: to play. And you know wide receiver Jaden hazel Wood,

881
00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:40,040
Speaker 1: he's in no contact drills this week, but that means

882
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:42,680
Speaker 1: that he's going to play. So Arkansas is going to

883
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:45,560
Speaker 1: be at more full strength than they've been in weeks.

884
00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:47,719
Speaker 1: I mean, they were struggling down the stretch here, and

885
00:43:47,760 --> 00:43:50,520
Speaker 1: the question is can Auburn defend k J Jefferson Raheem Sanders.

886
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:53,840
Speaker 1: They're just taking over games right now. And Pittman was

887
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:56,440
Speaker 1: very pleased with Kendall Browse's play calling up in provo.

888
00:43:56,920 --> 00:43:59,959
Speaker 1: They opened up the playbook during standardowns, they let kJ

889
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:03,640
Speaker 1: Jefferson start throwing the ball. It resulted in scoring over

890
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:05,759
Speaker 1: fifty points in the second half. They just took off.

891
00:44:06,120 --> 00:44:09,120
Speaker 1: So Pittman is praising Kendall Brows about his new play calling,

892
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:14,399
Speaker 1: but hey, that defense still stinks, all right. I mean

893
00:44:15,520 --> 00:44:18,480
Speaker 1: Auburn's defense is bad. Arkansas is just as bad. Right,

894
00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 1: They're both terrible in defending the rush, they're both terrible

895
00:44:21,160 --> 00:44:23,319
Speaker 1: defending the past, they're both terrible at tackling, and they

896
00:44:23,360 --> 00:44:25,360
Speaker 1: can't keep anybody out of the end zone. So the

897
00:44:25,440 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 1: question is is can Auburn do enough on offense? And

898
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 1: if you haven't seen Robbie Ashford play at quarterback, we're

899
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:34,160
Speaker 1: talking high variants here. A guy that can bust touchdown

900
00:44:34,239 --> 00:44:36,640
Speaker 1: runs on zone read plays and a guy that can

901
00:44:36,680 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 1: fumble the ball six times in this game. And when

902
00:44:39,600 --> 00:44:41,600
Speaker 1: I watch Robbie Ashford play and I look at his

903
00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:43,480
Speaker 1: numbers and I watch him run the zone read with

904
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:45,600
Speaker 1: Tank Bigsby, you know what, it reminds me of a

905
00:44:45,640 --> 00:44:49,840
Speaker 1: stuck reminds me of Jalen Milroe. It looks like Jalen Milroe.

906
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:52,040
Speaker 1: And that if you're an Arkansas fan and you want

907
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:54,879
Speaker 1: to back Arkansas, that's should scare the absolute shit out

908
00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:59,759
Speaker 1: of you. Because Arkansas had Alabama on the ropes and

909
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:04,279
Speaker 1: Jalen Milroe came into that game and just blazed a

910
00:45:04,400 --> 00:45:08,560
Speaker 1: trail down the sidelines and Razorback stadium. So you know

911
00:45:08,560 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 1: the Razorbacks they struggle with explosive plays. They're one hundred

912
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:15,120
Speaker 1: and thirtieth and opponent plays longer than thirty yards. You

913
00:45:15,160 --> 00:45:17,279
Speaker 1: know who's dead last and opponent plays longer than thirty

914
00:45:17,360 --> 00:45:21,719
Speaker 1: yards Charlotte Well, Arkansas's second to last. But you know

915
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:24,319
Speaker 1: the combination of Robby Ashford and Tank Bigsby, they throw

916
00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 1: in the tape and they see what Jalen Millroe and

917
00:45:26,080 --> 00:45:29,760
Speaker 1: Jamior Gibbs did, who dominated the Arkansas defense. That's exactly

918
00:45:29,840 --> 00:45:32,040
Speaker 1: what Auburn's going to line up and do. Who knows

919
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:34,160
Speaker 1: if they can do it as well. But you know,

920
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:36,640
Speaker 1: Auburn's fumbled the ball more than I mean, if you're

921
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:39,120
Speaker 1: gonna bet on this Auburn team, you need to realize

922
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:41,439
Speaker 1: they have fumbled the ball more than any other team

923
00:45:41,480 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 1: in all of FBS, eighteen of them this year. I

924
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:46,560
Speaker 1: didn't say fumbles loss. I'm in just fumbles total. The

925
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:49,920
Speaker 1: ball is always on the carpet. So you know I'm

926
00:45:49,960 --> 00:45:52,439
Speaker 1: betting Auburn. It's not a heavy bet because I don't

927
00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:55,319
Speaker 1: trust them with this many you know, fumbles in there.

928
00:45:55,600 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 1: But Auburn can run Robbie Ashford the way Jalen Milroe

929
00:45:58,680 --> 00:46:01,120
Speaker 1: ran for Alabama, and that is a huge issue for

930
00:46:01,200 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 1: Arkansas defense.

931
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:06,040
Speaker 3: All Right, I heard here first Dollans fading Arkansas. You

932
00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:09,800
Speaker 3: know what to do, war Eagle, all right? Wake at Louisville.

933
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:11,480
Speaker 3: This is an interesting game. Louisville is at three and

934
00:46:11,520 --> 00:46:14,200
Speaker 3: a half point home underdog over under sixty four of

935
00:46:14,200 --> 00:46:17,879
Speaker 3: this games at three thirty on ACC Network. I want

936
00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 3: to play Louisville here as a round robin dog consideration.

937
00:46:22,160 --> 00:46:24,399
Speaker 3: For me, I have a couple of things that I'm

938
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:27,800
Speaker 3: afraid of. I'm afraid of their They're small at corner

939
00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:31,600
Speaker 3: to worries me a little bit against these Wake receivers

940
00:46:31,680 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 3: that Hardy could throw it up to. Louisville can get

941
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:37,239
Speaker 3: pressure on the quarterback here, which could be a path

942
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:39,279
Speaker 3: to success to blow up the mesh point that is

943
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:43,719
Speaker 3: the starting point for the wake Forest defense. But I'm look,

944
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 3: wake Forest just continues to exceed expectations and just got

945
00:46:49,080 --> 00:46:51,880
Speaker 3: to give them credit. And I'm looking at their defensive numbers,

946
00:46:51,880 --> 00:46:54,440
Speaker 3: like Brad Lambert is doing a hell of a job

947
00:46:54,440 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 3: with that Wake defense, especially against the run. They did

948
00:46:57,080 --> 00:46:58,440
Speaker 3: been really good against the run. I thought they were

949
00:46:58,440 --> 00:47:00,840
Speaker 3: going to be awful that scale there a bit against

950
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:04,720
Speaker 3: Louisville because Louisville needs to get its ground game going.

951
00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 3: You know that their passing attack is very inconsistent with

952
00:47:08,000 --> 00:47:11,920
Speaker 3: Malie Cunningham. So I think the spot in the bat

953
00:47:11,960 --> 00:47:15,480
Speaker 3: I show value in Louisville here too, But I'm a

954
00:47:15,520 --> 00:47:18,120
Speaker 3: little scared that maybe I just don't have Wake's defense

955
00:47:18,120 --> 00:47:19,319
Speaker 3: good enough. What are your thoughts here?

956
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:21,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, maybe I can get you over the hump, because

957
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 1: I mean Louisville was a play immediately for me on

958
00:47:23,280 --> 00:47:26,000
Speaker 1: Sunday when openers came out down Go download the action

959
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 1: app by the way, if you haven't. And the issue

960
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:31,200
Speaker 1: is is that, yes, Brad Lambert and the Wake Force

961
00:47:31,280 --> 00:47:33,400
Speaker 1: defense are good against the run, but they're good against

962
00:47:33,880 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 1: running backs are getting handoffs and gap runs that are

963
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:39,400
Speaker 1: like pulling guards and you know, not zone runs and

964
00:47:39,400 --> 00:47:42,440
Speaker 1: not zone reads. And when they have gone up against

965
00:47:42,760 --> 00:47:46,280
Speaker 1: dual threat quarterbacks, it's just been a completely different story.

966
00:47:46,400 --> 00:47:48,440
Speaker 1: So if you go back and look at what Maliite

967
00:47:48,480 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 1: Cunningham has done to Wake Forest all these years, I

968
00:47:50,640 --> 00:47:54,080
Speaker 1: mean he has just absolutely torn them apart. Louisville's kind

969
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:56,640
Speaker 1: of owned this series, and I mean they've scored at

970
00:47:56,719 --> 00:47:59,520
Speaker 1: least thirty four points in what five years of Malie

971
00:47:59,560 --> 00:48:02,160
Speaker 1: Cunningham has been there. So if you look at the

972
00:48:02,200 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 1: other dual threats that Wake has gone up against this year,

973
00:48:05,200 --> 00:48:07,920
Speaker 1: DJ and Clemson, he had fifty eight yards, they were

974
00:48:07,920 --> 00:48:10,920
Speaker 1: all on designed and scrambles. Will Shipley had over one hundred.

975
00:48:11,080 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 1: And that's from the zone read. Liberty is the one

976
00:48:14,200 --> 00:48:16,040
Speaker 1: where I mean, Liberty is the one that stuck out

977
00:48:16,080 --> 00:48:17,600
Speaker 1: in my mind the reason that I wanted to make

978
00:48:17,640 --> 00:48:20,239
Speaker 1: this back because Kayiton Salter had ninety yards on the

979
00:48:20,239 --> 00:48:22,799
Speaker 1: ground day Day Hunter had only nineteen. But it was

980
00:48:22,840 --> 00:48:26,160
Speaker 1: the zone reay that they absolutely could not defend whatsoever.

981
00:48:26,560 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 1: Wake Forest was a little bit lost. So, yeah, they

982
00:48:28,680 --> 00:48:30,279
Speaker 1: have great rush numbers.

983
00:48:30,160 --> 00:48:32,879
Speaker 3: But when they beat Liberty by one, Yeah, when you.

984
00:48:32,840 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 1: Go back to that Liberty game and you start watching

985
00:48:34,680 --> 00:48:37,000
Speaker 1: highlights of that, it's like, oh shit, they can't defend

986
00:48:37,080 --> 00:48:39,759
Speaker 1: dual threat quarterbacks. They're going to pick one to the

987
00:48:39,800 --> 00:48:41,920
Speaker 1: other right, the defensive end is going to pick one

988
00:48:41,960 --> 00:48:43,680
Speaker 1: and the other one's just going to fly off, and

989
00:48:43,719 --> 00:48:46,600
Speaker 1: that is not a good combination for a Louisville team

990
00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:49,440
Speaker 1: then not only has Malie Cunningham, but they've got like,

991
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:52,440
Speaker 1: I don't know, five running backs that are all healthy

992
00:48:52,480 --> 00:48:57,120
Speaker 1: down like Tyon Evans most likely available per Sadderfield. Trevion

993
00:48:57,239 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 1: Cooley is the most explosive out of all the running backs,

994
00:48:59,840 --> 00:49:03,000
Speaker 1: and Jauar Jordan He's created more mistackles than any other

995
00:49:03,080 --> 00:49:05,279
Speaker 1: running back. So they got three of them. They can

996
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:07,920
Speaker 1: line up next to Malie Cunningham and explode. And I

997
00:49:07,960 --> 00:49:09,759
Speaker 1: say this every time we bet on Louisville. Oh, the

998
00:49:09,760 --> 00:49:12,920
Speaker 1: penalties are gonna kill us. Hopefully we can survive. But

999
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:15,759
Speaker 1: at the base core of this bet, think about that

1000
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:18,360
Speaker 1: Liberty game, because that dual threat quarterback combination on the

1001
00:49:18,360 --> 00:49:20,080
Speaker 1: ground has torn wake for us apart.

1002
00:49:20,719 --> 00:49:23,839
Speaker 3: All right, I think you could speak that's up. All right,

1003
00:49:23,840 --> 00:49:27,080
Speaker 3: Here's a game I am on and do like, and

1004
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:31,000
Speaker 3: that's UCF at home two point home favorite over under

1005
00:49:31,000 --> 00:49:36,600
Speaker 3: fifty six three thirty Eastern on ESPN. I love UCF.

1006
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:38,719
Speaker 3: Here still some issues with since he I just haven't

1007
00:49:38,760 --> 00:49:41,160
Speaker 3: been impressed with them all year. They couldn't put like

1008
00:49:41,200 --> 00:49:43,200
Speaker 3: Indiana way. They were struggling with miam Ohio and their

1009
00:49:43,200 --> 00:49:45,680
Speaker 3: backup quarterback. Of these are bad teams could have lost

1010
00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:49,719
Speaker 3: the USF at home. They have issues like the penalties

1011
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:52,520
Speaker 3: and the offensive line. These are things that they didn't

1012
00:49:52,520 --> 00:49:54,480
Speaker 3: deal with last year, and they're correlated because a lot

1013
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:57,480
Speaker 3: of these are pre staff penalties and there are offense

1014
00:49:57,480 --> 00:49:59,120
Speaker 3: on They were supposed to return all five stars, supposed

1015
00:49:59,120 --> 00:50:01,400
Speaker 3: to be the strength of the offense, but then that injuries

1016
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:03,040
Speaker 3: in the preseason and another injury this year. They've been

1017
00:50:03,040 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 3: shifting guys around. Now you're going to the bounce house.

1018
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:08,120
Speaker 3: With all that noise, I think penalty is gonna be

1019
00:50:08,120 --> 00:50:11,479
Speaker 3: more of a problem. Look this they faced a bunch

1020
00:50:11,480 --> 00:50:14,440
Speaker 3: of poor rush offenses SMU Tulsa, Indiana, Miams, Ohio or

1021
00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:18,200
Speaker 3: poverty rush offenses. The two rush officers at rank of

1022
00:50:18,239 --> 00:50:22,120
Speaker 3: the top thirty South Florida and Arkansas each round for

1023
00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:25,319
Speaker 3: two to twenty five five yards per clip. Well UC

1024
00:50:25,640 --> 00:50:27,920
Speaker 3: franks the top twenty national leg guards per carry e

1025
00:50:28,000 --> 00:50:31,080
Speaker 3: paper rush rush success rate. Everything starts in the ground

1026
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:33,719
Speaker 3: with them. That's why I faded on BCU because he's

1027
00:50:33,800 --> 00:50:36,560
Speaker 3: US run defense has been elite. That's not necessarily the

1028
00:50:36,560 --> 00:50:38,880
Speaker 3: case with Cincinnati this year. They do get after the

1029
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:42,200
Speaker 3: quarterback at an elite level. But I think that Plumbery

1030
00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:45,360
Speaker 3: can use their aggressiveness against them here. Yeah, I just

1031
00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:47,759
Speaker 3: I'm not sure that since he's pass attack, which their

1032
00:50:47,800 --> 00:50:50,080
Speaker 3: leading receiver is in a boot last week and Scott

1033
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:55,160
Speaker 3: it really lacks explosiveness this year, I don't think they

1034
00:50:55,160 --> 00:51:00,080
Speaker 3: can really exploit UCS weaker pass defense. So yeah, I

1035
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:02,280
Speaker 3: think this is a bounce back spot in the bounce house,

1036
00:51:02,640 --> 00:51:06,240
Speaker 3: favorable situational spot and matchup in my opinion.

1037
00:51:06,800 --> 00:51:07,000
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1038
00:51:07,040 --> 00:51:10,200
Speaker 3: By the way, I mentioned Dykes's record when ranked on

1039
00:51:10,239 --> 00:51:13,359
Speaker 3: the road against unranked teams. He's the least profitable last

1040
00:51:13,400 --> 00:51:16,680
Speaker 3: forty years, the second least profitable. Luke Fickle one in

1041
00:51:16,719 --> 00:51:19,000
Speaker 3: eight against the spread found the cover by eight points

1042
00:51:19,040 --> 00:51:21,520
Speaker 3: per game. I think this is a great spot to

1043
00:51:21,560 --> 00:51:25,080
Speaker 3: back UCF. I think since he's yet to be exposed,

1044
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 3: but they're about to be, UCF gets its revenge from

1045
00:51:29,360 --> 00:51:32,440
Speaker 3: the past two seasons losses. What do you got here?

1046
00:51:33,600 --> 00:51:35,200
Speaker 1: I'm on the fence on this because I don't want

1047
00:51:35,200 --> 00:51:37,120
Speaker 1: to lay points with the UCF. I mean I could

1048
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:40,000
Speaker 1: find a money line out there. Cincinnati has not played

1049
00:51:40,040 --> 00:51:41,640
Speaker 1: even Fickle said this, we have not played in a

1050
00:51:41,680 --> 00:51:46,239
Speaker 1: hostile environment since Week one against Arkansas, since he's dead

1051
00:51:46,360 --> 00:51:49,319
Speaker 1: last and penalties. I'm not trying to back a road team.

1052
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:52,960
Speaker 1: It's dead last to penalties go into a hostile environment.

1053
00:51:53,160 --> 00:51:56,320
Speaker 1: This is not a good formula whatsoever. UCF second leading

1054
00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:59,520
Speaker 1: target wide receiver Jayvon Baker, He's been limited. He just

1055
00:51:59,560 --> 00:52:01,840
Speaker 1: had one argued last week. Maleson says, it's day to

1056
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:04,719
Speaker 1: day that guy is two point six yards per route run.

1057
00:52:04,760 --> 00:52:06,920
Speaker 1: So when plumb Lee does decide to throw, that is

1058
00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:09,640
Speaker 1: the weapon that he really needs. It's UCF for nothing

1059
00:52:09,680 --> 00:52:12,839
Speaker 1: here rolling with males On Springdal Arkansas z Own.

1060
00:52:14,600 --> 00:52:18,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's all about gus this weekend. I love UCF.

1061
00:52:18,200 --> 00:52:20,359
Speaker 3: One of my favorite best weekend all right, Ole Miss

1062
00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:22,400
Speaker 3: at Texas A and M text a M one and

1063
00:52:22,440 --> 00:52:25,560
Speaker 3: a half one underdog over under fifty five games at

1064
00:52:25,640 --> 00:52:28,879
Speaker 3: seven pm Eastern SEC Network. One thing that I'll mention

1065
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:31,080
Speaker 3: with Ole Miss is and this kind of goes along

1066
00:52:31,080 --> 00:52:33,960
Speaker 3: with what you're saying, and you'll add contest when we

1067
00:52:34,000 --> 00:52:37,120
Speaker 3: get to that. Last week, Lane Kiffin, you know, came

1068
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:40,440
Speaker 3: out Ole Miss came out pretty hot and then they

1069
00:52:40,520 --> 00:52:44,399
Speaker 3: got dominated in the second half. Right, So I said

1070
00:52:44,400 --> 00:52:47,279
Speaker 3: to myself, I feel like this happens a lot like

1071
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:49,520
Speaker 3: Ole Miss and this year's in particular. Now, a lot

1072
00:52:49,520 --> 00:52:50,719
Speaker 3: of it was like they took their foot off the

1073
00:52:50,760 --> 00:52:52,640
Speaker 3: gas this year. But I was like, if I feel

1074
00:52:52,680 --> 00:52:55,799
Speaker 3: like Kiff, it comes out the good, great scripted plays,

1075
00:52:56,239 --> 00:52:58,000
Speaker 3: has a great game plan. He always has, you know,

1076
00:52:58,040 --> 00:53:01,600
Speaker 3: he's a great play scheme, And I think I feel

1077
00:53:01,600 --> 00:53:04,279
Speaker 3: like ole Miss always comes out hot, but then they

1078
00:53:04,320 --> 00:53:06,680
Speaker 3: fizzle in the second half, and he always gets beaten

1079
00:53:06,760 --> 00:53:10,480
Speaker 3: coaching adjustments. So I went and checked in his career

1080
00:53:10,560 --> 00:53:14,920
Speaker 3: Lane Kiffin's career. This is stunning. He's seventy two and

1081
00:53:15,000 --> 00:53:18,360
Speaker 3: forty one against the spread in the first half, but

1082
00:53:18,480 --> 00:53:20,880
Speaker 3: the best of all time, most profitable coach of all

1083
00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:24,440
Speaker 3: sixty four percent, seventy two and forty one. You know

1084
00:53:24,480 --> 00:53:26,719
Speaker 3: what he is in the second half, the worst of

1085
00:53:26,760 --> 00:53:30,839
Speaker 3: any current coach forty four sixty and five, forty two

1086
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:34,520
Speaker 3: point seven percent. So I'll wait for you to talk

1087
00:53:34,520 --> 00:53:40,200
Speaker 3: about this in our money line underdog segment. But if

1088
00:53:40,680 --> 00:53:43,560
Speaker 3: Texas A and M is down at the half, keep

1089
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:46,799
Speaker 3: that in mind, because which you'll get to. Ole Miss

1090
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:48,759
Speaker 3: has played like a million games in a row. So

1091
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:52,560
Speaker 3: not only do you have this adjustment advantage, text, ole

1092
00:53:52,560 --> 00:53:54,720
Speaker 3: Miss could is just gonna like could lose its legs

1093
00:53:54,760 --> 00:53:56,760
Speaker 3: like they might have nothing left, like we talked about

1094
00:53:56,880 --> 00:53:58,520
Speaker 3: with ECU, who, by the way, is also on a

1095
00:53:58,560 --> 00:54:02,640
Speaker 3: short trip in altitude, so keep that in mind. If

1096
00:54:03,400 --> 00:54:07,000
Speaker 3: ole miss is close at the half, I'm gonna be

1097
00:54:07,120 --> 00:54:08,960
Speaker 3: most likely to test to say it. The second half

1098
00:54:09,440 --> 00:54:10,840
Speaker 3: we'll get we'll get more insight when we get to

1099
00:54:10,880 --> 00:54:13,360
Speaker 3: the moneyline dog segment. All right, I do want to

1100
00:54:13,360 --> 00:54:15,080
Speaker 3: remind everyone to make sure you check out our group

1101
00:54:15,120 --> 00:54:17,520
Speaker 3: of five guys, Mike and Mike. They do a tremendous

1102
00:54:17,600 --> 00:54:22,280
Speaker 3: job covering the group of five Marquee games each week

1103
00:54:22,560 --> 00:54:25,160
Speaker 3: comes out the day before our episodes, so it's already out.

1104
00:54:25,160 --> 00:54:27,480
Speaker 3: Make sure you check that out, a little shorter than ours.

1105
00:54:27,640 --> 00:54:31,000
Speaker 3: Really easy to digest. They do a tremendous job, So

1106
00:54:31,080 --> 00:54:34,879
Speaker 3: check out my guys, Mike and Mike. All right, let's

1107
00:54:35,320 --> 00:54:41,640
Speaker 3: get into some trash. Baby, what's that smell? It's danks,

1108
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:42,279
Speaker 3: what you mean?

1109
00:54:42,480 --> 00:54:45,280
Speaker 1: Just trash, the sweet, sweet trash.

1110
00:54:46,200 --> 00:54:50,520
Speaker 3: The trash is a gold mine, old mine, all right, Kyle.

1111
00:54:50,680 --> 00:54:53,040
Speaker 3: Every week I'm saying, everyone's still loving this segment, but

1112
00:54:53,080 --> 00:54:54,799
Speaker 3: there's gonna be one week where it goes wrong. So

1113
00:54:55,000 --> 00:54:57,759
Speaker 3: just my cave saying.

1114
00:54:57,520 --> 00:54:59,440
Speaker 1: That we've only got like five weeks left.

1115
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:03,719
Speaker 3: You can so far, so hopefully hopefully I can. It's I

1116
00:55:03,719 --> 00:55:06,879
Speaker 3: can jinx it where it's it's good all year. But yeah,

1117
00:55:06,960 --> 00:55:09,399
Speaker 3: I look, I could stay red hot for an entire

1118
00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:11,800
Speaker 3: college tuble seat. It's a small sample size, like you

1119
00:55:11,840 --> 00:55:14,360
Speaker 3: can go. I could be cold for twelve weeks. So

1120
00:55:14,480 --> 00:55:17,880
Speaker 3: hopefully this is the season. I am hot every weekend

1121
00:55:18,360 --> 00:55:22,320
Speaker 3: and Barret's goes my way, and then next year we'll

1122
00:55:22,320 --> 00:55:24,480
Speaker 3: worry about next year next year. What does Tom win say?

1123
00:55:24,840 --> 00:55:27,040
Speaker 1: Last week was last week, this week was this week,

1124
00:55:27,440 --> 00:55:29,160
Speaker 1: next week will be next week.

1125
00:55:29,239 --> 00:55:31,480
Speaker 3: All right, So let's get in some trash. I got

1126
00:55:31,520 --> 00:55:34,560
Speaker 3: six games here, you know. The first one, By the way,

1127
00:55:34,840 --> 00:55:37,840
Speaker 3: the first one is uh, Charlotte plus sixteen and a

1128
00:55:37,880 --> 00:55:42,319
Speaker 3: half at Rice. This line is crazy. Rice should not

1129
00:55:42,360 --> 00:55:44,439
Speaker 3: be a seventeen point favorite here. There were seven point

1130
00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:46,279
Speaker 3: dog I think that's Charlotte last year and they lost

1131
00:55:46,280 --> 00:55:51,439
Speaker 3: in overtime. Rice is much improved. But this is mainly Look,

1132
00:55:51,480 --> 00:55:53,080
Speaker 3: I was gonna be done with Charlotte. And by the way,

1133
00:55:53,120 --> 00:55:55,480
Speaker 3: everyone gives me shit for Charlotte. I'm two and three

1134
00:55:55,480 --> 00:55:58,080
Speaker 3: against the spread batting them this year. Okay, last week

1135
00:55:58,160 --> 00:56:01,280
Speaker 3: was the swing. It was embarrassing. That's been some embarrassing losses.

1136
00:56:01,480 --> 00:56:03,719
Speaker 3: But UTEP could have went either way. But yeah, I've

1137
00:56:03,719 --> 00:56:05,200
Speaker 3: been really wrong on them and then really right, like

1138
00:56:05,239 --> 00:56:08,000
Speaker 3: easy cover against UAB. They went outright against Georgia State.

1139
00:56:08,480 --> 00:56:11,719
Speaker 3: So it hasn't been I've had worse teams. But look,

1140
00:56:11,760 --> 00:56:13,680
Speaker 3: this is a new new coach bump. We've seen it

1141
00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:19,480
Speaker 3: all year. Look Georgia Tech, huge upset, Arizona State, huge upset,

1142
00:56:19,680 --> 00:56:24,000
Speaker 3: Colorado huge upset. These are teams that were corpses prior

1143
00:56:24,040 --> 00:56:26,759
Speaker 3: to firing their coach. Wisconsin fire as their coach wins

1144
00:56:26,800 --> 00:56:31,040
Speaker 3: forty two to seven. The one exception was Nebraska when

1145
00:56:31,040 --> 00:56:33,560
Speaker 3: they let Scott frostco. So hopefully you know it's like

1146
00:56:33,600 --> 00:56:36,839
Speaker 3: four to one, we get a not a Nebraska situation here.

1147
00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:39,239
Speaker 3: Charlotte's defense is a lost cause whatever, but they do

1148
00:56:39,280 --> 00:56:40,840
Speaker 3: it the better offense of this matchup, Like I have

1149
00:56:40,880 --> 00:56:44,160
Speaker 3: their offenseive rated higher, and they've been unlucky, like they are.

1150
00:56:44,760 --> 00:56:48,359
Speaker 3: I haven't top thirty five success rate on offense. They are. Look,

1151
00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:51,919
Speaker 3: they've only converted eight of twenty three fourth downs, bottom ten.

1152
00:56:52,080 --> 00:56:55,879
Speaker 3: Their opponents are thirteen of eighteen top ten turnovers. They've

1153
00:56:55,880 --> 00:56:58,640
Speaker 3: been unlucky. So like they're off their defense sucks, like

1154
00:56:58,640 --> 00:57:01,480
Speaker 3: their defense is worse than the country. But their offense

1155
00:57:01,520 --> 00:57:05,879
Speaker 3: should have some positive variants. And I'm hoping that the

1156
00:57:06,239 --> 00:57:09,520
Speaker 3: new coach gives them around. They have some new looks here. Yeah,

1157
00:57:09,560 --> 00:57:11,120
Speaker 3: I'm taking Charlotte. I haven't put it in the app

1158
00:57:11,160 --> 00:57:13,080
Speaker 3: yet because why it's at sixteen and a half. Waiting

1159
00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:15,680
Speaker 3: to see if it goes to seventeen. But if even

1160
00:57:15,680 --> 00:57:18,080
Speaker 3: if it doesn't, I will be on Charlotte. We're back

1161
00:57:18,120 --> 00:57:22,440
Speaker 3: on the train. We're back, baby, And see this FIU shirt.

1162
00:57:22,520 --> 00:57:24,360
Speaker 3: I will buy a Rice shirt and wear it next week.

1163
00:57:24,400 --> 00:57:27,880
Speaker 3: If Charlotte doesn't cover, like, I wouldn't be shot to

1164
00:57:27,960 --> 00:57:31,200
Speaker 3: Charotte went out right, So we're back.

1165
00:57:31,640 --> 00:57:34,200
Speaker 1: We'll see if Stucky brings Charlotte to the show on Saturday.

1166
00:57:34,680 --> 00:57:37,600
Speaker 3: Wait, it's against Rice. Are two banned teams from the show.

1167
00:57:37,800 --> 00:57:40,720
Speaker 1: I know, I know, I listen. I dove a little

1168
00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:42,720
Speaker 1: bit in this game. To me, it's an under. I

1169
00:57:42,760 --> 00:57:44,600
Speaker 1: project this in the high forties.

1170
00:57:44,280 --> 00:57:46,800
Speaker 3: Helps the dog. If you like the under helps the dog.

1171
00:57:47,040 --> 00:57:49,240
Speaker 1: I mean Rice is a complete snail thirty point one

1172
00:57:49,280 --> 00:57:52,000
Speaker 1: seconds per play. There's no explosives. It's gonna happen here

1173
00:57:52,280 --> 00:57:55,080
Speaker 1: and the Rice rush defense is the strongest unit here

1174
00:57:55,080 --> 00:57:58,800
Speaker 1: in the game. And you're right. If Charlotte's gonna pass,

1175
00:57:58,800 --> 00:58:00,760
Speaker 1: they're gonna have a good time because the Rice doesn't

1176
00:58:00,800 --> 00:58:03,480
Speaker 1: really defend the pass very well. But at the same time,

1177
00:58:03,520 --> 00:58:05,680
Speaker 1: these two teams are in Netta getting it into the

1178
00:58:05,800 --> 00:58:08,560
Speaker 1: end zone. So I don't know where this total comes from.

1179
00:58:08,880 --> 00:58:11,280
Speaker 1: Fifty nine very key, so I would get the best

1180
00:58:11,320 --> 00:58:12,320
Speaker 1: of that and get under.

1181
00:58:12,560 --> 00:58:14,640
Speaker 3: Charlotte can't run it at all, by the way, so

1182
00:58:14,840 --> 00:58:16,480
Speaker 3: and they don't like to, so I hope they don't

1183
00:58:16,520 --> 00:58:18,280
Speaker 3: run it at all. So like to strike. The Rice's

1184
00:58:18,280 --> 00:58:21,320
Speaker 3: defense doesn't mean anything. Charloie can't run against anybody. Another

1185
00:58:21,360 --> 00:58:24,400
Speaker 3: reason to like Charlotte. Baby, we're back nine to five

1186
00:58:24,400 --> 00:58:26,520
Speaker 3: to nine, bad beat. When they lose by fifty to Rice,

1187
00:58:26,560 --> 00:58:29,400
Speaker 3: it's gonna be embarrassing. What time is that game?

1188
00:58:29,840 --> 00:58:30,840
Speaker 1: One Central?

1189
00:58:32,000 --> 00:58:35,520
Speaker 3: God nice and liquor it up by one Central.

1190
00:58:36,680 --> 00:58:40,080
Speaker 1: Sometimes the game can be so bad it's almost good,

1191
00:58:40,320 --> 00:58:41,040
Speaker 1: you know what I'm saying.

1192
00:58:41,800 --> 00:58:47,000
Speaker 3: No, All right, let's go this one's hold your nose territory.

1193
00:58:47,040 --> 00:58:49,439
Speaker 3: Hopefully we get another caller this week on this game.

1194
00:58:49,480 --> 00:58:52,200
Speaker 3: In the first quarter, we're going back to cal seventeen

1195
00:58:52,360 --> 00:58:54,960
Speaker 3: and a half is too many points here. Look, if

1196
00:58:55,000 --> 00:58:59,480
Speaker 3: you adjust for opponent, Oregon's defense sucks like suck. They

1197
00:58:59,480 --> 00:59:02,960
Speaker 3: are off so like I don't mind in a bad spot,

1198
00:59:03,040 --> 00:59:05,280
Speaker 3: like they blew out UCLA. Their offense has been rolling.

1199
00:59:05,320 --> 00:59:09,760
Speaker 3: It's roadbo nicks. Cal just plays up and down to

1200
00:59:09,800 --> 00:59:12,720
Speaker 3: their opponent being over this a million times. Justin Wilcox

1201
00:59:12,760 --> 00:59:14,560
Speaker 3: twenty three to nine and one against the spread as

1202
00:59:14,560 --> 00:59:17,600
Speaker 3: an underdog. He is seventeen and three against the spread

1203
00:59:17,640 --> 00:59:19,600
Speaker 3: as a dog when he's getting more than seven points,

1204
00:59:20,280 --> 00:59:22,840
Speaker 3: and he's also awful as a favorite. Why is that? Okay?

1205
00:59:22,960 --> 00:59:25,120
Speaker 3: So let's go break it because tred doesn't mean anything nless,

1206
00:59:25,160 --> 00:59:28,200
Speaker 3: there's a reason. Well, Cal plays they just prevent. They

1207
00:59:28,200 --> 00:59:31,240
Speaker 3: don't allow explosive plays, so they make you like drive

1208
00:59:31,280 --> 00:59:32,960
Speaker 3: it up and down the field, which is important here

1209
00:59:32,960 --> 00:59:35,920
Speaker 3: against Oregon. They'll drop their safeties way back and you

1210
00:59:36,000 --> 00:59:37,919
Speaker 3: gotta work down the field. And then on offense, they're

1211
00:59:37,960 --> 00:59:44,040
Speaker 3: like a snail and they are an old school, rotten,

1212
00:59:44,640 --> 00:59:49,680
Speaker 3: outdated West Coast offense, so they're gonna go slow. They

1213
00:59:49,720 --> 00:59:51,960
Speaker 3: got to like complete short passes all over the field.

1214
00:59:52,160 --> 00:59:54,840
Speaker 3: They could do that here, Like the past success rate

1215
00:59:54,920 --> 00:59:57,680
Speaker 3: for Oregon is not great, and Oregon isn't getting pressure

1216
00:59:57,720 --> 01:00:01,240
Speaker 3: on the quarterback, which is massive against Cal because Cow's

1217
01:00:01,240 --> 01:00:05,400
Speaker 3: offensive line stinks and Plumber can't move he's a statue.

1218
01:00:05,560 --> 01:00:08,000
Speaker 3: It's one of the problems with Cal's d Col's excuse

1219
01:00:08,040 --> 01:00:09,680
Speaker 3: me this year because Garbers could move around and he

1220
01:00:09,760 --> 01:00:12,640
Speaker 3: massed some of their offensive line issues. But uh yeah,

1221
01:00:12,720 --> 01:00:16,040
Speaker 3: col just finds ways to be in games with everyone,

1222
01:00:16,080 --> 01:00:18,000
Speaker 3: no matter who they play, no matter who bad or good.

1223
01:00:18,280 --> 01:00:20,160
Speaker 3: And this is just a good spot to back them.

1224
01:00:20,400 --> 01:00:23,520
Speaker 3: And like I said, Oregon's defense is really bad. So

1225
01:00:23,600 --> 01:00:26,280
Speaker 3: like Cal could score some points here, this game could

1226
01:00:26,280 --> 01:00:29,400
Speaker 3: be like and Orgon's gonna score. But Cols the ride

1227
01:00:29,480 --> 01:00:31,479
Speaker 3: this game down, make them drive the field. Maybe Orgon

1228
01:00:31,480 --> 01:00:34,480
Speaker 3: comes out flat, it's roadbownicks, maybe throws a couple of picks.

1229
01:00:34,440 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 2: Bow next season then full effect.

1230
01:00:38,360 --> 01:00:41,520
Speaker 1: I'll say Oregon by ten seventeen and a half is

1231
01:00:41,520 --> 01:00:44,320
Speaker 1: where the value begins on Cal. This Oregon team is

1232
01:00:44,400 --> 01:00:46,280
Speaker 1: not the same when they're on the road. They have

1233
01:00:46,400 --> 01:00:49,080
Speaker 1: just one cover that was Arizona. They just have one

1234
01:00:49,160 --> 01:00:52,920
Speaker 1: over that was against Wazoo. You know, if there's a

1235
01:00:52,960 --> 01:00:54,440
Speaker 1: little bit of seam, I'd love it to get to

1236
01:00:54,440 --> 01:00:55,320
Speaker 1: fifty and wazoo.

1237
01:00:55,320 --> 01:00:57,720
Speaker 3: There, I'm sixteen with five to go in the game.

1238
01:00:58,120 --> 01:01:01,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I mean, how about it? This Oregon defense.

1239
01:01:01,120 --> 01:01:04,080
Speaker 1: It convinced Stuckey and I in the seventies last week

1240
01:01:04,120 --> 01:01:07,080
Speaker 1: to take it over. That's how bad this defense is.

1241
01:01:07,120 --> 01:01:10,480
Speaker 1: That's all you gotta say. So, uh, you know, I

1242
01:01:10,680 --> 01:01:12,880
Speaker 1: don't know. Maybe I think if there's steam at fifty nine,

1243
01:01:12,920 --> 01:01:14,720
Speaker 1: I would take it under here because Cal wants to

1244
01:01:14,920 --> 01:01:16,920
Speaker 1: yuck it up. Yeah stuck, he's a right seventeen if

1245
01:01:16,960 --> 01:01:19,280
Speaker 1: you could gut it. What time is this?

1246
01:01:19,360 --> 01:01:19,480
Speaker 2: Oh?

1247
01:01:19,600 --> 01:01:22,720
Speaker 1: Got the games in the middle of the day or yeah,

1248
01:01:22,800 --> 01:01:26,840
Speaker 1: seventeen and a half. Yeah, sleepy spot. You gotta flush

1249
01:01:26,840 --> 01:01:29,360
Speaker 1: that thing down the toilet like your goldfish in fourth grade. Man,

1250
01:01:29,400 --> 01:01:30,440
Speaker 1: that thing's dead and gone.

1251
01:01:31,040 --> 01:01:33,240
Speaker 3: All right, here's the next one, you mass Home Dog.

1252
01:01:33,720 --> 01:01:36,080
Speaker 3: I don't I'm not gonna even break it down. This

1253
01:01:36,200 --> 01:01:39,240
Speaker 3: doesn't this game doesn't deserve to be broken down. My

1254
01:01:39,400 --> 01:01:43,760
Speaker 3: reasoning is New Mexico State does not deserve to be

1255
01:01:43,800 --> 01:01:48,200
Speaker 3: a road favorite in a meaningless game. For them going

1256
01:01:48,240 --> 01:01:52,560
Speaker 3: across the country to face you mass you mass Home

1257
01:01:52,600 --> 01:01:54,120
Speaker 3: dog taking it.

1258
01:01:56,120 --> 01:01:59,400
Speaker 1: I can't well, I will say this has been three

1259
01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:02,480
Speaker 1: home games for they've covered two of them, so at

1260
01:02:02,560 --> 01:02:04,560
Speaker 1: least they're covering games at home. And you're right, New

1261
01:02:04,560 --> 01:02:07,080
Speaker 1: Mexico State shouldn't be favored over anybody, no matter. If

1262
01:02:07,120 --> 01:02:09,480
Speaker 1: I have a power rating, this says it should be

1263
01:02:09,480 --> 01:02:12,920
Speaker 1: New Mexico State minus three. You know, both teams are

1264
01:02:12,920 --> 01:02:13,520
Speaker 1: coming off of.

1265
01:02:13,440 --> 01:02:14,200
Speaker 3: A bye week.

1266
01:02:14,440 --> 01:02:16,280
Speaker 1: You know, at some point we've got to throw you

1267
01:02:16,400 --> 01:02:19,720
Speaker 1: mass into a round robin on the show.

1268
01:02:19,640 --> 01:02:20,720
Speaker 3: And I was thinking about it.

1269
01:02:20,800 --> 01:02:22,600
Speaker 1: We've got to include all of our children. So I

1270
01:02:22,600 --> 01:02:25,000
Speaker 1: think this Saturday, we'll keep you guys on your toes.

1271
01:02:25,040 --> 01:02:27,000
Speaker 1: I think maybe the Minutemen are going to be a

1272
01:02:27,040 --> 01:02:27,920
Speaker 1: go to play.

1273
01:02:28,480 --> 01:02:32,400
Speaker 3: Rutgers at Minnesota. I'm considering Rutgers because their run defense

1274
01:02:32,440 --> 01:02:35,960
Speaker 3: has been tremendous and by the way, Ohio State's something

1275
01:02:36,000 --> 01:02:38,280
Speaker 3: to mention when they played Rutgers. Rutgers are missing three

1276
01:02:38,440 --> 01:02:41,280
Speaker 3: starters in the secondary if you're looking into some of

1277
01:02:41,320 --> 01:02:46,040
Speaker 3: their data points. But their Rutgers now healthy. Their offense stinks,

1278
01:02:46,320 --> 01:02:48,680
Speaker 3: but their run defense is really good. Like their defense

1279
01:02:48,720 --> 01:02:52,760
Speaker 3: overall is really good now that it's healthy. Minnesota has

1280
01:02:52,760 --> 01:02:55,040
Speaker 3: been lost on offense. They can't throw the ball. I

1281
01:02:55,040 --> 01:02:59,440
Speaker 3: don't know if Tanner Morgan's gonna play a Morgan but

1282
01:03:00,160 --> 01:03:03,120
Speaker 3: Rutgers run dye can and this game in Minnesota plays

1283
01:03:03,160 --> 01:03:05,640
Speaker 3: like a snail. How will Rutgers score? I don't know.

1284
01:03:05,680 --> 01:03:08,480
Speaker 3: Their offense is so bad, their special teams are also elite.

1285
01:03:10,320 --> 01:03:12,840
Speaker 3: It's either I'm thinking about Rutgers plus fourteen if Morgan's

1286
01:03:12,880 --> 01:03:16,200
Speaker 3: out for sure. But maybe I just go under forty

1287
01:03:16,200 --> 01:03:19,280
Speaker 3: and a half here because Minnesota is like the slowest

1288
01:03:19,280 --> 01:03:21,160
Speaker 3: team ever and they all they want to do is

1289
01:03:21,200 --> 01:03:23,160
Speaker 3: run it, but you can't really run it on Rutgers,

1290
01:03:23,520 --> 01:03:26,960
Speaker 3: and Rutgers offense is horrendous. Maybe this is an underplay,

1291
01:03:27,160 --> 01:03:31,240
Speaker 3: but at fourteen, I'm like tempted by Rutgers just because

1292
01:03:31,280 --> 01:03:35,040
Speaker 3: of the matchup. And Minnesota also obliterated by Penn State.

1293
01:03:35,400 --> 01:03:37,920
Speaker 3: They've lost like three in a row. Now you're home

1294
01:03:37,920 --> 01:03:40,680
Speaker 3: against Rutgers and like your Big Ten Division, like they're

1295
01:03:40,680 --> 01:03:43,120
Speaker 3: just have to be deflated like that. So I don't

1296
01:03:43,120 --> 01:03:45,920
Speaker 3: think it's a great spot from Minnesota either. I don't know,

1297
01:03:46,440 --> 01:03:47,800
Speaker 3: yeah about Rutgers in the under.

1298
01:03:47,960 --> 01:03:49,520
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm egan fourteen and a half. I think

1299
01:03:49,560 --> 01:03:51,480
Speaker 1: you made a great case for taking the Ruggers team

1300
01:03:51,480 --> 01:03:54,320
Speaker 1: total under, So I'll leave it at that. But on

1301
01:03:54,360 --> 01:03:56,880
Speaker 1: a side note, did everybody happen to see the twenty

1302
01:03:56,880 --> 01:04:00,920
Speaker 1: twenty three Big Ten schedule that came out. Holy shit, Minnesota,

1303
01:04:01,000 --> 01:04:05,360
Speaker 1: I believe they drew Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State. There

1304
01:04:05,400 --> 01:04:07,919
Speaker 1: will be no Minnesota futures in twenty twenty three coming

1305
01:04:07,960 --> 01:04:12,840
Speaker 1: from the Action Network. Minnesota got death row scheduling next.

1306
01:04:12,760 --> 01:04:14,480
Speaker 3: Year, and it's fucked up.

1307
01:04:15,000 --> 01:04:17,160
Speaker 1: But that is the way it is, all right.

1308
01:04:17,240 --> 01:04:22,120
Speaker 3: Let's here's an ugly one Iowa minus eleven. I'm thinking

1309
01:04:22,160 --> 01:04:26,480
Speaker 3: about Iowa minus eleven. I can't figure out Northwestern is

1310
01:04:26,520 --> 01:04:28,760
Speaker 3: gonna score. I'm assuming they're gonna go with their backup

1311
01:04:28,840 --> 01:04:33,439
Speaker 3: quarterback again. Northwestern gets to like seven points against any

1312
01:04:33,720 --> 01:04:38,160
Speaker 3: defense with a pulse, and their defense isn't very good,

1313
01:04:38,440 --> 01:04:42,520
Speaker 3: So I think Iowa is gonna get to I mean,

1314
01:04:42,560 --> 01:04:46,600
Speaker 3: Northwestern's defense is bad. I mean, Iowa's offense is horrendous.

1315
01:04:46,600 --> 01:04:49,400
Speaker 3: They have seven offensive touchdowns in the year. But the

1316
01:04:49,480 --> 01:04:52,800
Speaker 3: Iowa defense is probably gonna score here. They're special teams.

1317
01:04:53,200 --> 01:04:53,560
Speaker 1: I don't know.

1318
01:04:53,600 --> 01:04:55,720
Speaker 3: I think that they get to like twenty and I

1319
01:04:55,720 --> 01:04:58,800
Speaker 3: don't think I think this is like twenty something to seven.

1320
01:04:59,240 --> 01:05:01,280
Speaker 3: So I'm thinking about laying the eleven with Iowa.

1321
01:05:01,800 --> 01:05:03,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I make it thirteen. So I mean

1322
01:05:03,920 --> 01:05:05,920
Speaker 1: this kind of caught my eye. But then you know,

1323
01:05:05,920 --> 01:05:10,440
Speaker 1: if you pay attention to the news, Farents is in

1324
01:05:10,520 --> 01:05:13,520
Speaker 1: trouble for saying, I'm glad I'm not that guy like

1325
01:05:13,600 --> 01:05:16,240
Speaker 1: making fun of a reporter that asked a question. You know,

1326
01:05:16,320 --> 01:05:19,400
Speaker 1: of course, his son is under big time scrutiny for

1327
01:05:19,440 --> 01:05:23,600
Speaker 1: that offense, being the offensive coordinator. So I'm not saying

1328
01:05:23,640 --> 01:05:26,040
Speaker 1: they're capable of doing it. But do they change the playbook?

1329
01:05:26,040 --> 01:05:29,640
Speaker 1: Do they try something new, because anything, anything, has got

1330
01:05:29,680 --> 01:05:31,720
Speaker 1: to be better than what they currently have on the field.

1331
01:05:31,920 --> 01:05:35,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, put the freshman QB and they have Pat Peterson

1332
01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:39,040
Speaker 3: Padela yeah yeah, or as the starters.

1333
01:05:39,080 --> 01:05:42,000
Speaker 1: But yeah, so I mean the market's telling me, I

1334
01:05:42,040 --> 01:05:43,800
Speaker 1: mean what we opened at nine, we're eleven and a

1335
01:05:43,840 --> 01:05:45,640
Speaker 1: half and it's actually climbing a little bit, and I

1336
01:05:45,680 --> 01:05:47,760
Speaker 1: make the number thirteen. So yeah, I think IOWA is

1337
01:05:47,800 --> 01:05:50,160
Speaker 1: the play But I don't know. It's like it's like

1338
01:05:50,400 --> 01:05:52,520
Speaker 1: asking you kicked in the nuts and maybe you'll get

1339
01:05:52,520 --> 01:05:53,560
Speaker 1: paid out. I don't know.

1340
01:05:53,760 --> 01:05:56,120
Speaker 3: Look, I'm one to h against the spread betting. I

1341
01:05:56,320 --> 01:05:59,640
Speaker 3: was a double digit favorite this year and that took

1342
01:05:59,720 --> 01:06:02,560
Speaker 3: seven and a half hours till three in the morning.

1343
01:06:02,680 --> 01:06:05,760
Speaker 3: Nothing will be worse than that. So I am mentally

1344
01:06:05,840 --> 01:06:08,760
Speaker 3: prepared for this and that was like in an island spot,

1345
01:06:08,840 --> 01:06:10,280
Speaker 3: like it was the only game on I had to watch.

1346
01:06:10,640 --> 01:06:14,480
Speaker 3: All right, let's uh one final trash And the reason

1347
01:06:14,480 --> 01:06:15,800
Speaker 3: I put it in here because last time I put

1348
01:06:15,800 --> 01:06:18,760
Speaker 3: it in the trash it covered Michigan State. When I

1349
01:06:18,800 --> 01:06:21,320
Speaker 3: put them in the trash against Wisconsin when we took them,

1350
01:06:21,640 --> 01:06:24,920
Speaker 3: they covered. So Michigan State plus twenty three against Michigan

1351
01:06:25,520 --> 01:06:27,560
Speaker 3: I'm on it. This is too many points. This line

1352
01:06:27,680 --> 01:06:31,160
Speaker 3: is gotten out of hand. The Michigan really wants this game. Yeah,

1353
01:06:31,160 --> 01:06:33,240
Speaker 3: they lost back to back years is they lost his

1354
01:06:33,320 --> 01:06:35,760
Speaker 3: twenty one point favorites at home two years ago. Granted

1355
01:06:35,800 --> 01:06:38,280
Speaker 3: there was no fans in the stands. Wolf Verines are

1356
01:06:38,280 --> 01:06:41,560
Speaker 3: talking shit. Michigan State's kind of staying quiet. Who cares

1357
01:06:41,560 --> 01:06:43,480
Speaker 3: they wanted They didn't want the game last year. Michigan

1358
01:06:43,520 --> 01:06:46,040
Speaker 3: State also wants this game. They're in state rivals now

1359
01:06:46,160 --> 01:06:47,800
Speaker 3: could come into play if like Harbo wants to run

1360
01:06:47,800 --> 01:06:50,360
Speaker 3: out to score, So maybe that's that's the angle. But

1361
01:06:50,400 --> 01:06:52,560
Speaker 3: both teams off of a bye week, that's much more

1362
01:06:52,560 --> 01:06:55,520
Speaker 3: important for Michigan State, like they needed to get healthy.

1363
01:06:55,560 --> 01:06:58,240
Speaker 3: Peyton Dorne is going to be healthy. Like Xavier Henderson

1364
01:06:58,240 --> 01:07:00,600
Speaker 3: in the Wisconsin game, he's their most important defender in secondary.

1365
01:07:01,000 --> 01:07:02,920
Speaker 3: He was in a boot getting his leg worked on

1366
01:07:02,960 --> 01:07:04,760
Speaker 3: every almost every time he go off the field. He's

1367
01:07:05,000 --> 01:07:08,200
Speaker 3: apparently now fully healthy. Slave should be back. He's important

1368
01:07:08,200 --> 01:07:09,960
Speaker 3: in the run game. What is Michigan want to do?

1369
01:07:10,040 --> 01:07:12,920
Speaker 3: They want to run the ball. Michigan State's Rundy's good. Now.

1370
01:07:12,960 --> 01:07:16,640
Speaker 3: Their pass defense is horrendous, horrendous, But you have Henderson back,

1371
01:07:17,360 --> 01:07:20,440
Speaker 3: and I just think with Thorn now healthy, their offense

1372
01:07:20,480 --> 01:07:22,480
Speaker 3: is underperformed because he's been hurt. You'd read out for

1373
01:07:22,520 --> 01:07:25,080
Speaker 3: a game. I think they can use some tempo here

1374
01:07:25,760 --> 01:07:29,480
Speaker 3: and like Maryland did and score some points. And I

1375
01:07:29,480 --> 01:07:32,280
Speaker 3: think this is just too many points. It's like, if

1376
01:07:32,280 --> 01:07:34,040
Speaker 3: you go back since two thousand and five, Michigan, say

1377
01:07:34,040 --> 01:07:36,680
Speaker 3: twelve and five against the spread in this matchup covered

1378
01:07:36,760 --> 01:07:39,680
Speaker 3: by just over under a touchdown a game they won

1379
01:07:39,800 --> 01:07:42,280
Speaker 3: four of six outright, his dogs, like this is a

1380
01:07:42,400 --> 01:07:45,200
Speaker 3: rivalry game, like but and I think that always favors

1381
01:07:45,200 --> 01:07:49,760
Speaker 3: the big dog. Too many points here, give me Michigan State.

1382
01:07:51,600 --> 01:07:53,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the case getting made for the over

1383
01:07:53,400 --> 01:07:57,120
Speaker 1: here and when you talk about it's funny, you say horrendous.

1384
01:07:57,160 --> 01:07:59,360
Speaker 1: My word for it was horrific. I mean the spardy

1385
01:07:59,360 --> 01:08:03,000
Speaker 1: pasty is extremely bad. And you know this is a

1386
01:08:03,000 --> 01:08:05,840
Speaker 1: revenge game for Harball, like you mentioned, I mean cash

1387
01:08:05,880 --> 01:08:08,000
Speaker 1: your tickets. I went to Big Ten media days and

1388
01:08:09,360 --> 01:08:13,120
Speaker 1: Harball could not stop talking about achieving all of his goals,

1389
01:08:13,640 --> 01:08:17,479
Speaker 1: win the Big Ten, beat Ohio State, and beat Michigan State.

1390
01:08:17,600 --> 01:08:20,160
Speaker 1: We have not beaten Michigan State. It eats at him

1391
01:08:20,160 --> 01:08:22,320
Speaker 1: that they haven't done this. So how does that apply

1392
01:08:22,360 --> 01:08:24,720
Speaker 1: to the over right? Well, what it means is is,

1393
01:08:25,520 --> 01:08:28,320
Speaker 1: first off, this point spread is not legit. It's too high, right,

1394
01:08:28,600 --> 01:08:31,839
Speaker 1: So if you can grin bear, yeah, it's too high.

1395
01:08:32,160 --> 01:08:34,680
Speaker 1: But I think the deal is is if Michigan does

1396
01:08:34,720 --> 01:08:38,760
Speaker 1: get up by seventeen fourteen, seventeen twenty or even twenty four,

1397
01:08:39,360 --> 01:08:43,360
Speaker 1: we're not taking knees, We're not slowing down. We are

1398
01:08:43,360 --> 01:08:44,880
Speaker 1: going to continue to score.

1399
01:08:45,160 --> 01:08:45,280
Speaker 2: Now.

1400
01:08:45,320 --> 01:08:47,479
Speaker 3: I think what really like that Iowa game last year

1401
01:08:47,479 --> 01:08:48,960
Speaker 3: in the Big Ten championship.

1402
01:08:49,280 --> 01:08:52,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, so Harbaugh is not going to let it

1403
01:08:53,000 --> 01:08:54,559
Speaker 1: take his foot off the pedal if he has the

1404
01:08:54,640 --> 01:08:56,840
Speaker 1: chance to go for the juggular on Tucker here, I'm

1405
01:08:56,880 --> 01:08:59,240
Speaker 1: not sure he does though. I mean, the Spartans got

1406
01:08:59,240 --> 01:09:02,120
Speaker 1: thirty four and Wasjohnson. They had two offensive tds on

1407
01:09:02,439 --> 01:09:05,000
Speaker 1: on the Buckeyes. I know that there was a pick

1408
01:09:05,080 --> 01:09:06,640
Speaker 1: SI I think a pick six in that game. So

1409
01:09:06,800 --> 01:09:09,320
Speaker 1: but I think Harbaugh has just been so uber focused

1410
01:09:09,320 --> 01:09:11,320
Speaker 1: on this game. It's at home. But it worries me

1411
01:09:11,360 --> 01:09:12,880
Speaker 1: about taking it over. I do want to take the

1412
01:09:12,920 --> 01:09:15,479
Speaker 1: over there. My book in Iowa is offering fifty four

1413
01:09:15,520 --> 01:09:16,920
Speaker 1: and a half. I'd like to get the over on that.

1414
01:09:17,000 --> 01:09:19,200
Speaker 1: But I think what worries me is if Harbaugh decides

1415
01:09:19,240 --> 01:09:20,720
Speaker 1: we want to play bully ball and keep it on

1416
01:09:20,760 --> 01:09:22,320
Speaker 1: the ground and not air it out, which is what

1417
01:09:22,360 --> 01:09:25,040
Speaker 1: you should do against Michigan State. That's a little bit

1418
01:09:25,040 --> 01:09:27,479
Speaker 1: of a worry. But to me, if you could take

1419
01:09:27,520 --> 01:09:30,800
Speaker 1: it Michigan State, it's completely overinflated. They're scoring points now

1420
01:09:31,280 --> 01:09:33,680
Speaker 1: and then the over because Harbaugh is not going to

1421
01:09:33,760 --> 01:09:35,680
Speaker 1: let up. You just need them to be throwing the

1422
01:09:35,720 --> 01:09:38,559
Speaker 1: ball instead of running the ball. So that's where I go.

1423
01:09:39,040 --> 01:09:41,360
Speaker 3: Now, you shouldn't do that against Michigan State. You shouldn't

1424
01:09:41,360 --> 01:09:42,840
Speaker 3: try to just run on them. You should throw it.

1425
01:09:43,080 --> 01:09:44,040
Speaker 1: No, that's what I'm saying.

1426
01:09:44,120 --> 01:09:46,160
Speaker 3: I don't yeah, yeah, in Michigan. But Michigan Uns they

1427
01:09:46,240 --> 01:09:46,800
Speaker 3: always do that.

1428
01:09:46,840 --> 01:09:49,519
Speaker 1: Which, Yeah, the problem is when Jim Harbaugh gets in

1429
01:09:49,560 --> 01:09:51,720
Speaker 1: these games and he wants to prove a point like

1430
01:09:51,800 --> 01:09:54,880
Speaker 1: passing is not Michigan's first option, which it should be

1431
01:09:54,920 --> 01:09:55,519
Speaker 1: in this game.

1432
01:09:55,800 --> 01:09:58,120
Speaker 3: That's what worries me about the old All right, that'll

1433
01:09:58,120 --> 01:10:00,120
Speaker 3: do it for trash. A lot of agreement. Hopefully we

1434
01:10:00,120 --> 01:10:00,960
Speaker 3: can keep it rolling.

1435
01:10:01,439 --> 01:10:03,920
Speaker 1: One other game here, gonna fall out of his chair.

1436
01:10:03,920 --> 01:10:06,120
Speaker 1: If we put u Mass on the BBOC on Saturday,

1437
01:10:06,120 --> 01:10:07,760
Speaker 1: He's just gonna fall out of his chair.

1438
01:10:08,520 --> 01:10:13,479
Speaker 3: Nick Murphy, you monstrous erection, you Texas Tech. By the way,

1439
01:10:13,479 --> 01:10:16,000
Speaker 3: I just don't want to mentions. They play Baylor, I

1440
01:10:16,000 --> 01:10:18,719
Speaker 3: will see who plays quarterback them. They're running a trillion

1441
01:10:18,800 --> 01:10:21,519
Speaker 3: plays per minute and they keep and they. McGuire keeps

1442
01:10:21,520 --> 01:10:23,960
Speaker 3: saying he wants to go faster and faster. They were

1443
01:10:23,960 --> 01:10:25,960
Speaker 3: against West Virginia last week. They were running like three

1444
01:10:25,960 --> 01:10:30,080
Speaker 3: plays per minute and they were up huge. They are

1445
01:10:30,120 --> 01:10:32,280
Speaker 3: running a lot of a lot of plays. And when

1446
01:10:32,320 --> 01:10:34,280
Speaker 3: he got hired it was because he said he just

1447
01:10:34,320 --> 01:10:35,800
Speaker 3: wants to go back to like the Kingsbury As. They

1448
01:10:35,840 --> 01:10:38,240
Speaker 3: just want electrical. They are going They're trying to break

1449
01:10:38,280 --> 01:10:40,840
Speaker 3: records recently, and they say they want to go faster.

1450
01:10:40,960 --> 01:10:42,840
Speaker 3: Something to keep in mind. Texas Tech Kansas in a

1451
01:10:42,880 --> 01:10:47,479
Speaker 3: couple of weeks over city, oh one mess order of

1452
01:10:47,520 --> 01:10:49,920
Speaker 3: business wore we go three and out colin San Diego State.

1453
01:10:50,600 --> 01:10:54,160
Speaker 3: A couple in a row here at Fresno, FRESNOE minus

1454
01:10:54,200 --> 01:10:56,320
Speaker 3: eight and a half over under forty one over or under.

1455
01:10:56,360 --> 01:10:57,080
Speaker 3: You got one minute.

1456
01:10:57,479 --> 01:10:59,280
Speaker 1: I hit the over. I wanted to get ahead of

1457
01:10:59,280 --> 01:11:03,000
Speaker 1: the steam. In case Jake Hayter is actually playing as techovers,

1458
01:11:03,479 --> 01:11:06,320
Speaker 1: Fresno is keeping practices off limits to the media. They

1459
01:11:06,320 --> 01:11:09,680
Speaker 1: want to keep his status quiet. Logan Fife actually had

1460
01:11:09,720 --> 01:11:12,680
Speaker 1: an explosive designed run last week, But hey, this is

1461
01:11:12,720 --> 01:11:15,920
Speaker 1: all about Jalen Maiden for San Diego State. He is

1462
01:11:15,960 --> 01:11:18,720
Speaker 1: a load at quarterback six three two twenty. He looks

1463
01:11:18,760 --> 01:11:21,599
Speaker 1: like a linebacker coming off of a pick six fifty

1464
01:11:21,640 --> 01:11:22,080
Speaker 1: eight rushing.

1465
01:11:22,120 --> 01:11:24,879
Speaker 3: Sure, he's a converted safety, but he was a quarterback

1466
01:11:24,880 --> 01:11:26,280
Speaker 3: at Miss State like five years ago.

1467
01:11:26,520 --> 01:11:29,599
Speaker 1: He had two rushes last week, that's it, and created

1468
01:11:29,680 --> 01:11:32,880
Speaker 1: five Miss tackles. The dude is an animal, so over

1469
01:11:32,960 --> 01:11:35,000
Speaker 1: and if the hater news hits that he's going to play,

1470
01:11:35,360 --> 01:11:37,120
Speaker 1: I expect the over to steam. So I'm getting in

1471
01:11:37,120 --> 01:11:38,800
Speaker 1: on it now. Forty and a half, forty one. Whatever

1472
01:11:38,840 --> 01:11:39,240
Speaker 1: we're at.

1473
01:11:39,800 --> 01:11:44,640
Speaker 2: If Colin has a segment on as Techovers, isn't it

1474
01:11:44,800 --> 01:11:47,360
Speaker 2: time for Stucky to have his own segment on bet

1475
01:11:47,360 --> 01:11:50,120
Speaker 2: and Charlotte. I even have the perfect name for it,

1476
01:11:50,760 --> 01:11:51,479
Speaker 2: club shit.

1477
01:11:52,600 --> 01:11:56,360
Speaker 3: All right, let's go three and out.

1478
01:11:55,200 --> 01:11:59,240
Speaker 1: Oh, let's make it a quick three and out.

1479
01:12:00,400 --> 01:12:03,639
Speaker 3: All right, let's start off with our favorite bet. I'll

1480
01:12:03,640 --> 01:12:07,080
Speaker 3: start things off here. I'll start with Missouri. I liked

1481
01:12:07,080 --> 01:12:08,560
Speaker 3: them anything over a field goal. That's one of the

1482
01:12:08,600 --> 01:12:11,360
Speaker 3: first bets I made this week. I think on Monday

1483
01:12:11,400 --> 01:12:15,479
Speaker 3: or Tuesday, I've been riding South Carolina. I played them

1484
01:12:15,479 --> 01:12:18,719
Speaker 3: at Kentucky, but they played a backup quarterback. Said their defense,

1485
01:12:18,760 --> 01:12:21,240
Speaker 3: you know, had injuries earlier in the year. They were undervalued.

1486
01:12:21,280 --> 01:12:23,559
Speaker 3: Played them last week against Texas A and m covered

1487
01:12:23,960 --> 01:12:27,240
Speaker 3: pretty fortunate if you look at that box score. Missouri,

1488
01:12:27,320 --> 01:12:29,479
Speaker 3: by the way, But now I'll sign to jump off

1489
01:12:29,479 --> 01:12:31,720
Speaker 3: South Carolina the rank. Now I think the market is

1490
01:12:32,560 --> 01:12:35,160
Speaker 3: overvaluing them. I don't do not think. I think this

1491
01:12:35,200 --> 01:12:37,200
Speaker 3: game is a point foot by the way, Missouri I

1492
01:12:37,200 --> 01:12:39,200
Speaker 3: think is the team. Now that's undervalue in the market.

1493
01:12:39,920 --> 01:12:41,720
Speaker 3: If you look, you know they won by three last

1494
01:12:41,760 --> 01:12:46,559
Speaker 3: week against Vandy, should have been more. This defense is legit.

1495
01:12:47,000 --> 01:12:50,240
Speaker 3: This Missouri defense is the real deal, especially against the run.

1496
01:12:50,800 --> 01:12:53,280
Speaker 3: And this is a Missouri team that went on the road.

1497
01:12:53,360 --> 01:12:55,960
Speaker 3: They should have beat Auburn on the road. They had

1498
01:12:56,520 --> 01:12:58,400
Speaker 3: a missed field goal from their great kicker and then

1499
01:12:58,400 --> 01:13:00,559
Speaker 3: they fumbled the ball going into the end zone to

1500
01:13:00,600 --> 01:13:04,160
Speaker 3: win the game. They should have beat Florida. They out

1501
01:13:04,160 --> 01:13:06,200
Speaker 3: played Florida in that game. If not for a pick six,

1502
01:13:06,800 --> 01:13:09,400
Speaker 3: they win that game. They were the better team there

1503
01:13:09,920 --> 01:13:14,920
Speaker 3: and they went They played Georgia like even at home.

1504
01:13:15,040 --> 01:13:17,920
Speaker 3: This run bey is legit. That's what you need against

1505
01:13:17,920 --> 01:13:21,439
Speaker 3: South Carolina, who's you know, Marshall Lloyd's a stud. They

1506
01:13:21,439 --> 01:13:24,639
Speaker 3: can't throw the ball with Spencer Rattler. The Missouri secondary

1507
01:13:24,640 --> 01:13:27,040
Speaker 3: has also been good for what it's worth. So you know,

1508
01:13:27,080 --> 01:13:29,720
Speaker 3: the Missouri offense has been ugly. But I think that

1509
01:13:29,760 --> 01:13:32,800
Speaker 3: they can get some their ground game going here against

1510
01:13:32,840 --> 01:13:36,320
Speaker 3: South Carolina. And yeah, this is I'll take the better

1511
01:13:36,400 --> 01:13:39,360
Speaker 3: defense here in a good spot on the road at

1512
01:13:39,360 --> 01:13:41,919
Speaker 3: South Carolina. Give me Missouri.

1513
01:13:43,600 --> 01:13:45,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna pivot over and go with a usc

1514
01:13:46,040 --> 01:13:49,360
Speaker 1: team total over I am just drawn to this number.

1515
01:13:49,680 --> 01:13:52,640
Speaker 1: How USC does not post a fifty burger on Arizona

1516
01:13:53,479 --> 01:13:56,599
Speaker 1: is just gonna be shocking me. And you need help

1517
01:13:56,640 --> 01:13:58,920
Speaker 1: from the other side to score that many points. You're

1518
01:13:58,960 --> 01:14:01,040
Speaker 1: gonna get that out of Arizona this week. Arizona is

1519
01:14:01,080 --> 01:14:04,120
Speaker 1: the fastest offense USC has faced this here, twenty three

1520
01:14:04,200 --> 01:14:06,920
Speaker 1: seconds per play. When you look at what USC has

1521
01:14:06,920 --> 01:14:10,120
Speaker 1: done against other teams that run fast offenses like Wazoos

1522
01:14:10,160 --> 01:14:13,840
Speaker 1: twenty four seconds per play, Arizona states like twenty six.

1523
01:14:14,000 --> 01:14:16,040
Speaker 1: No one has been as fast as this Arizona team.

1524
01:14:16,280 --> 01:14:19,559
Speaker 1: Arizona is also explosive on offense, which means there should

1525
01:14:19,560 --> 01:14:22,680
Speaker 1: be an increase of possessions. Going back to that Wazoo game,

1526
01:14:22,840 --> 01:14:26,160
Speaker 1: USC had eleven possessions, there could be thirteen or fourteen

1527
01:14:26,200 --> 01:14:29,320
Speaker 1: possessions for the USC Trojans here and right now their

1528
01:14:29,360 --> 01:14:31,559
Speaker 1: top twenty in red zone TD rate, And what that

1529
01:14:31,600 --> 01:14:33,599
Speaker 1: means is is I think they've only had like four

1530
01:14:33,600 --> 01:14:36,559
Speaker 1: field goals to twenty seven touchdowns. They score touchdowns, they

1531
01:14:36,560 --> 01:14:40,639
Speaker 1: do not kick. Arizona is dead last and defensive finishing drives.

1532
01:14:40,920 --> 01:14:44,200
Speaker 1: What that means is every USC drive that goes past

1533
01:14:44,240 --> 01:14:46,759
Speaker 1: the forty is going to turn into a touchdown, something

1534
01:14:46,760 --> 01:14:49,479
Speaker 1: that they do anyways, and then the Arizona defense is

1535
01:14:49,600 --> 01:14:52,800
Speaker 1: dead last and standard down success rate. That is a

1536
01:14:52,920 --> 01:14:56,160
Speaker 1: long way of saying all USC has to do is

1537
01:14:56,240 --> 01:14:58,640
Speaker 1: hike the ball on first and ten and they're going

1538
01:14:58,680 --> 01:15:02,479
Speaker 1: to be granted another first. If Delora hits explosives and

1539
01:15:02,520 --> 01:15:04,760
Speaker 1: has quick scores to Jacob Cowing or any of his

1540
01:15:04,800 --> 01:15:07,920
Speaker 1: other targets for Arizona, that helps this USC team total

1541
01:15:07,960 --> 01:15:10,320
Speaker 1: over because it gives them the ball back. I will

1542
01:15:10,320 --> 01:15:13,679
Speaker 1: take Arizona quick scores all day, which we might get here. Now.

1543
01:15:13,680 --> 01:15:16,080
Speaker 1: I know Jordan Addison is day to day. I know

1544
01:15:16,120 --> 01:15:17,720
Speaker 1: that from a yards per route run, he is their

1545
01:15:17,760 --> 01:15:21,360
Speaker 1: most explosive weapon on the outside. But Mario Williams has

1546
01:15:21,640 --> 01:15:24,080
Speaker 1: as many snaps at wide out and he's also over

1547
01:15:24,120 --> 01:15:27,760
Speaker 1: two yards per two yards per route run, which means

1548
01:15:27,800 --> 01:15:31,960
Speaker 1: he's explosive. Also, give me USC team total over look

1549
01:15:32,000 --> 01:15:35,559
Speaker 1: for fourteen possessions a touchdown on ten of them, we'll

1550
01:15:35,600 --> 01:15:38,000
Speaker 1: get over that number, which I believe is about forty

1551
01:15:38,040 --> 01:15:39,920
Speaker 1: seven and a half forty six and a half, so

1552
01:15:39,960 --> 01:15:40,880
Speaker 1: we need a fifty.

1553
01:15:40,600 --> 01:15:44,400
Speaker 3: Burger out of the Trojans, all right, that'll do it

1554
01:15:44,400 --> 01:15:46,160
Speaker 3: for our best bet. Let's move on a second down,

1555
01:15:47,439 --> 01:15:50,439
Speaker 3: and let's talk our favorite over dog. For those not familiar,

1556
01:15:50,520 --> 01:15:53,120
Speaker 3: that's our favorite favorite. And Colin, you did this to

1557
01:15:53,120 --> 01:15:55,040
Speaker 3: me earlier in the year. You switched up the order

1558
01:15:55,040 --> 01:15:56,920
Speaker 3: because I could not hit a money line dog to

1559
01:15:56,960 --> 01:16:01,880
Speaker 3: save my life. That has turned. We've hit both three

1560
01:16:01,920 --> 01:16:03,519
Speaker 3: out of the past four weeks. We'll get to that

1561
01:16:03,560 --> 01:16:07,800
Speaker 3: on third down. But you've missed two favorites in a row. Well,

1562
01:16:07,840 --> 01:16:09,920
Speaker 3: I've hit two fairs ros. It's time to get you hot.

1563
01:16:10,280 --> 01:16:13,040
Speaker 3: It means switch the order and you're gonna go first

1564
01:16:13,400 --> 01:16:14,600
Speaker 3: with your favorite favorite.

1565
01:16:14,640 --> 01:16:16,640
Speaker 1: My wife gets pissed me because that changed clothes like

1566
01:16:16,680 --> 01:16:18,719
Speaker 1: four times in the middle of a college football Saturday

1567
01:16:18,720 --> 01:16:20,400
Speaker 1: because I have to change it up. I change it

1568
01:16:20,439 --> 01:16:22,200
Speaker 1: up and things just start to work. So I'll go first.

1569
01:16:22,240 --> 01:16:24,400
Speaker 1: I'll do Georgia is my favorite overdog.

1570
01:16:24,439 --> 01:16:24,679
Speaker 3: Here.

1571
01:16:25,080 --> 01:16:27,720
Speaker 1: This Florida defense from a success rate perspective, they are

1572
01:16:27,760 --> 01:16:30,280
Speaker 1: outside the top one hundred. They're not generating any havoc.

1573
01:16:30,800 --> 01:16:34,200
Speaker 1: There is no one in zone coverage to defend brock Bowers.

1574
01:16:34,200 --> 01:16:37,200
Speaker 1: Brock Bowers is an absolute animal. And oh, by the way,

1575
01:16:37,560 --> 01:16:40,320
Speaker 1: Darnel Washington is there. On the other hash Mark ready

1576
01:16:40,320 --> 01:16:42,599
Speaker 1: to take one down the scene. Florida is one hundred

1577
01:16:42,640 --> 01:16:44,599
Speaker 1: and thirtieth and third down defense. That is just going

1578
01:16:44,640 --> 01:16:46,679
Speaker 1: to equate to Georgia going up and down the field.

1579
01:16:46,720 --> 01:16:49,000
Speaker 1: Here they're top ten and converting third downs. And that's

1580
01:16:49,040 --> 01:16:51,799
Speaker 1: even to say that the Florida defense can get Georgia

1581
01:16:51,920 --> 01:16:53,640
Speaker 1: into third down. We're not even sure that that's going

1582
01:16:53,720 --> 01:16:56,360
Speaker 1: to be able to happen. So look for the Bulldogs

1583
01:16:56,360 --> 01:16:58,880
Speaker 1: to stay ahead of schedule. On offense, They're going to

1584
01:16:58,960 --> 01:17:01,679
Speaker 1: have lots of scoring opportunities. That's a place where Florida

1585
01:17:01,720 --> 01:17:05,000
Speaker 1: has really struggled the entire season. And if Florida does

1586
01:17:05,040 --> 01:17:07,639
Speaker 1: get them into passing downs, you know, the Gators defense

1587
01:17:07,680 --> 01:17:09,880
Speaker 1: is one hundred and twenty ninth in defensive success rate

1588
01:17:10,280 --> 01:17:12,439
Speaker 1: in passing down So you know Georgia is just going

1589
01:17:12,520 --> 01:17:14,160
Speaker 1: to have a field day on offense. When you go

1590
01:17:14,200 --> 01:17:16,840
Speaker 1: to the other side here, you have to ask can

1591
01:17:16,920 --> 01:17:19,240
Speaker 1: Florida score? I mean, what was this game last year?

1592
01:17:19,280 --> 01:17:22,160
Speaker 1: Thirty four to seven. Georgia isn't causing a ton of

1593
01:17:22,200 --> 01:17:24,720
Speaker 1: havoc that they don't really have a pass rush. It's

1594
01:17:24,720 --> 01:17:27,680
Speaker 1: eighty third. So the Bulldogs play about seventy percent in

1595
01:17:27,760 --> 01:17:30,919
Speaker 1: zone coverage and that's going to hinder the Anthony Richardson

1596
01:17:30,960 --> 01:17:33,559
Speaker 1: scrambles a lot. What you saw with Kentucky is what

1597
01:17:33,600 --> 01:17:35,760
Speaker 1: Georgia is going to do on their defense. So I

1598
01:17:35,840 --> 01:17:39,160
Speaker 1: expect limitations of Anthony Richardson. All we really have to

1599
01:17:39,160 --> 01:17:41,320
Speaker 1: worry about is the coach that will not be named

1600
01:17:41,640 --> 01:17:44,160
Speaker 1: him and all of these uptemple things that he does

1601
01:17:44,160 --> 01:17:46,200
Speaker 1: with two minutes left, like he did against Tennessee, trying

1602
01:17:46,240 --> 01:17:48,840
Speaker 1: to cover. But Georgia should absolutely have a field day

1603
01:17:48,880 --> 01:17:51,000
Speaker 1: here on offense, and the defense is going to keep

1604
01:17:51,000 --> 01:17:54,559
Speaker 1: Anthony Richardson at bay Like it.

1605
01:17:54,880 --> 01:17:59,439
Speaker 3: All right, I'm going to go with Miami Ohio minus eight.

1606
01:18:00,280 --> 01:18:02,160
Speaker 3: I think you're getting the RedHawks cheap here. They've had

1607
01:18:02,200 --> 01:18:05,360
Speaker 3: a bed start to the season, but Gabrick Brett Cava

1608
01:18:05,439 --> 01:18:08,680
Speaker 3: came back last week and he struggled, but that was

1609
01:18:08,680 --> 01:18:11,120
Speaker 3: to be expected. Hasn't played since the opener. There was

1610
01:18:11,200 --> 01:18:13,880
Speaker 3: Russ and they were running a completely different offense with

1611
01:18:13,960 --> 01:18:17,880
Speaker 3: their backup quarterback. Now you get another week of practice,

1612
01:18:17,960 --> 01:18:20,400
Speaker 3: you have that adjustment period. I think the Miami offense

1613
01:18:20,400 --> 01:18:22,760
Speaker 3: will look a lot better. Plus, you're playing one of

1614
01:18:22,800 --> 01:18:25,000
Speaker 3: the worst secondaries in the country in Akron On the

1615
01:18:25,000 --> 01:18:27,439
Speaker 3: other side, of the ball. Akron can't run the ball

1616
01:18:27,800 --> 01:18:31,000
Speaker 3: at all. Mina of Ohio's rundy is very good top

1617
01:18:31,080 --> 01:18:33,599
Speaker 3: twenty five, so they're going to be in passing downs

1618
01:18:33,640 --> 01:18:37,759
Speaker 3: a lot, and their offensive line is horrible in pass protection.

1619
01:18:38,280 --> 01:18:41,599
Speaker 3: Miama of Ohio lives on trying to get pressure and

1620
01:18:41,760 --> 01:18:44,000
Speaker 3: sending blitzes. So I think that they're going to create

1621
01:18:44,080 --> 01:18:46,400
Speaker 3: enough negative plays here. And I think that this line

1622
01:18:47,080 --> 01:18:50,840
Speaker 3: is cheap at Akron. There's no home field advantage. Since

1623
01:18:50,880 --> 01:18:54,639
Speaker 3: two thousand and five, Akron is the least profitable home

1624
01:18:54,720 --> 01:18:58,599
Speaker 3: underdog by a mile. They are seventeen and thirty six

1625
01:19:00,000 --> 01:19:02,240
Speaker 3: thirty two percent against the spread as a home dog,

1626
01:19:02,760 --> 01:19:06,080
Speaker 3: failing to cover by eight points per game. Uh yeah,

1627
01:19:06,120 --> 01:19:08,320
Speaker 3: so I don't mind. I think that anytime you can

1628
01:19:08,360 --> 01:19:10,519
Speaker 3: fade Acer at home because it's getting baked in the line,

1629
01:19:10,560 --> 01:19:12,439
Speaker 3: it shouldn't like there's there's a lot of travel in

1630
01:19:12,479 --> 01:19:15,160
Speaker 3: the MAC and Acre just doesn't have a good home

1631
01:19:15,200 --> 01:19:17,160
Speaker 3: field advantage right now. I think it's a good matchup

1632
01:19:17,200 --> 01:19:19,240
Speaker 3: and a good bounce back spot for my bile should

1633
01:19:19,280 --> 01:19:21,120
Speaker 3: get a bump with Gabber in a second game back.

1634
01:19:22,720 --> 01:19:26,440
Speaker 3: All right, let's move on to third down, our favorite

1635
01:19:26,760 --> 01:19:28,080
Speaker 3: money line, underdog.

1636
01:19:30,640 --> 01:19:35,600
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1637
01:19:35,760 --> 01:19:37,040
Speaker 2: money line parlay.

1638
01:19:38,360 --> 01:19:42,479
Speaker 3: Like I said, we are white hot, white hot, and

1639
01:19:42,600 --> 01:19:46,160
Speaker 3: we've hit three. We've hit both games three of the

1640
01:19:46,160 --> 01:19:49,639
Speaker 3: past four weeks, including back to back sweeps. I will

1641
01:19:49,640 --> 01:19:52,479
Speaker 3: get things started. I'm gonna go Notre Dame, a short

1642
01:19:52,479 --> 01:19:55,639
Speaker 3: dog here on the road. I think that their ground

1643
01:19:55,680 --> 01:20:00,639
Speaker 3: game is the difference. Here is Syracuse team overvalued letdown

1644
01:20:00,640 --> 01:20:02,240
Speaker 3: spot after you know you're not gonna win the ACC

1645
01:20:03,360 --> 01:20:06,040
Speaker 3: taken up to your college football hopes. But I think

1646
01:20:06,080 --> 01:20:08,439
Speaker 3: that Liodar Dame could get into the backfield here on

1647
01:20:08,520 --> 01:20:10,400
Speaker 3: passing downs. But more importantly, they're just going to control

1648
01:20:10,400 --> 01:20:14,559
Speaker 3: the line of scrimmage against a weak Syracuse defense. Give

1649
01:20:14,560 --> 01:20:17,800
Speaker 3: me the Irish on the road where they have performed

1650
01:20:18,160 --> 01:20:21,960
Speaker 3: well all year, hung with Ohio State neutral site dominated

1651
01:20:22,200 --> 01:20:25,960
Speaker 3: YU on the road dominated UNC. Give me the Irish.

1652
01:20:26,800 --> 01:20:28,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna go with Texas A and M on

1653
01:20:28,720 --> 01:20:32,120
Speaker 1: the money line at home hosting Ole Miss. Old Miss

1654
01:20:32,520 --> 01:20:36,000
Speaker 1: is exhausted. This is their ninth game in a row.

1655
01:20:36,280 --> 01:20:38,320
Speaker 1: You saw them deflate in the second half last week.

1656
01:20:38,360 --> 01:20:40,559
Speaker 1: Now they go on the road against the Texas A

1657
01:20:40,600 --> 01:20:42,759
Speaker 1: and M team that has not had a home game

1658
01:20:43,240 --> 01:20:46,040
Speaker 1: since September seventeenth, when they beat Miami. It has been

1659
01:20:46,320 --> 01:20:49,240
Speaker 1: forever and a day since Jimbo was in the friendly Confinenes.

1660
01:20:49,680 --> 01:20:52,040
Speaker 1: And yeah, Haines King has had some issues. He'll be there,

1661
01:20:52,120 --> 01:20:54,000
Speaker 1: we don't know how healthy is. And yeah, Connor Wegman

1662
01:20:54,120 --> 01:20:56,840
Speaker 1: is expected to get the Lion's sheriff snaps if King

1663
01:20:56,880 --> 01:20:59,040
Speaker 1: isn't able to go. But really this is all about

1664
01:20:59,080 --> 01:21:02,080
Speaker 1: Ole Miss and their fit. Zach Evans at running back

1665
01:21:02,120 --> 01:21:04,360
Speaker 1: missed the LSU game. He was expected to go. Not

1666
01:21:04,520 --> 01:21:06,280
Speaker 1: healthy enough. We don't know if he's going to play

1667
01:21:06,320 --> 01:21:08,920
Speaker 1: in this game. Their top three tacklers on defense have

1668
01:21:09,080 --> 01:21:11,600
Speaker 1: all been dealing with injuries. So the health of this

1669
01:21:11,680 --> 01:21:13,960
Speaker 1: team is suffering. And then when you look at the

1670
01:21:14,000 --> 01:21:16,960
Speaker 1: actual execution on the field, Ole Miss is not performing

1671
01:21:17,040 --> 01:21:19,160
Speaker 1: the same way that they were a month ago. For example,

1672
01:21:19,240 --> 01:21:21,920
Speaker 1: running back with Shawn Judkins, his production at running back

1673
01:21:22,000 --> 01:21:24,280
Speaker 1: is just coming to a halt, a full season average

1674
01:21:24,280 --> 01:21:27,679
Speaker 1: of three point one yards after contact last three games

1675
01:21:27,720 --> 01:21:30,680
Speaker 1: one point eight, two point four, two point three. They

1676
01:21:30,720 --> 01:21:34,240
Speaker 1: are not getting the push, they are not getting opportunity

1677
01:21:34,320 --> 01:21:37,439
Speaker 1: yards after they get contact. Jackson Dart has a four

1678
01:21:37,479 --> 01:21:40,479
Speaker 1: percent turnover worthy play rate for the season. In three

1679
01:21:40,520 --> 01:21:44,240
Speaker 1: of his last four games against LSU, Vandy, and Kentucky,

1680
01:21:44,520 --> 01:21:47,320
Speaker 1: he has posted at least a six percent turnover worthy

1681
01:21:47,320 --> 01:21:50,599
Speaker 1: play rate. His play is completely on the decline, and

1682
01:21:50,600 --> 01:21:53,360
Speaker 1: second leading tackler AJ Finley played just twenty four snaps

1683
01:21:53,360 --> 01:21:56,800
Speaker 1: against LSU. He only had one tackle. This team is

1684
01:21:56,880 --> 01:21:59,240
Speaker 1: absolutely exhausted on both sides of the ball. They need

1685
01:21:59,280 --> 01:22:01,320
Speaker 1: to get to a bye week, which is next week,

1686
01:22:01,600 --> 01:22:04,320
Speaker 1: pretty fast. I mean, the defense is given.

1687
01:22:04,400 --> 01:22:04,720
Speaker 3: Give it.

1688
01:22:04,720 --> 01:22:07,240
Speaker 1: Gave up five hundred and fifty three yards on the

1689
01:22:07,280 --> 01:22:10,080
Speaker 1: ground to LSU and Auburn over the past two weeks.

1690
01:22:10,320 --> 01:22:12,160
Speaker 1: And then throw in the fact that Texas A and

1691
01:22:12,280 --> 01:22:15,880
Speaker 1: m's defensive coordinator dj Diurkin left Old Miss He's now

1692
01:22:15,920 --> 01:22:18,280
Speaker 1: doing the same position for Texas A and M. You've

1693
01:22:18,280 --> 01:22:20,280
Speaker 1: heard Lane Kiffin make some jokes in the media this

1694
01:22:20,280 --> 01:22:22,080
Speaker 1: week about how they just couldn't afford him in Texas

1695
01:22:22,120 --> 01:22:24,920
Speaker 1: A and M can buy everybody, Listen. That is a

1696
01:22:25,000 --> 01:22:27,280
Speaker 1: plus for Texas A and M in this spot because

1697
01:22:27,280 --> 01:22:29,280
Speaker 1: he's gone up against Lane Kiffin in practice all the

1698
01:22:29,280 --> 01:22:31,880
Speaker 1: time and knows how his mind works on offense. Give me,

1699
01:22:31,960 --> 01:22:34,120
Speaker 1: Texas A and M don't need the points it is

1700
01:22:34,160 --> 01:22:38,200
Speaker 1: a fantastic spot against a very fatigued and tired Old

1701
01:22:38,200 --> 01:22:38,719
Speaker 1: Miss team.

1702
01:22:39,800 --> 01:22:42,519
Speaker 3: Yeah, and keep in mind the second half. If Old

1703
01:22:42,520 --> 01:22:46,000
Speaker 3: Miss does hang around, works close, look for Texas adem

1704
01:22:46,120 --> 01:22:49,840
Speaker 3: second half as I mentioned earlier. All right, that'll do

1705
01:22:49,920 --> 01:22:53,120
Speaker 3: it for us. Make sure you subscribe on Subscribe subscribe

1706
01:22:53,120 --> 01:22:55,880
Speaker 3: to All Frontal Enemy ten thirty am Eastern. By the way,

1707
01:22:56,120 --> 01:22:59,880
Speaker 3: Saturday morning, Colin myself and Brett McMurphy big that's on

1708
01:23:00,200 --> 01:23:03,800
Speaker 3: this live presented by bet MGM break down the college

1709
01:23:03,840 --> 01:23:07,559
Speaker 3: football slate and any updated information. Thanks to all of

1710
01:23:07,600 --> 01:23:10,160
Speaker 3: you for listening to Thanks tocom as always for joining me.

1711
01:23:10,560 --> 01:23:12,920
Speaker 3: Thanks to our video and audio team on the back end,

1712
01:23:12,960 --> 01:23:15,000
Speaker 3: and do a tremendous job each and every week, and

1713
01:23:15,040 --> 01:23:17,559
Speaker 3: don't get enough credit. Leave a five star review. We'll

1714
01:23:17,600 --> 01:23:19,800
Speaker 3: do giveaways, Producer. If you have a couple you want

1715
01:23:19,800 --> 01:23:21,760
Speaker 3: to give away, mention them now.

1716
01:23:22,840 --> 01:23:24,000
Speaker 1: Hey sure, Thanks Dicky.

1717
01:23:24,640 --> 01:23:27,120
Speaker 5: We have three winners this week. We got Phil in

1718
01:23:27,280 --> 01:23:32,880
Speaker 5: Saint Louis, m Saint Clair thirteen and best impression out there.

1719
01:23:33,240 --> 01:23:35,879
Speaker 5: Thank you to you three for your five star reviews.

1720
01:23:36,240 --> 01:23:40,120
Speaker 5: Email me at podcasts at actionnetwork dot com to claim

1721
01:23:40,200 --> 01:23:43,280
Speaker 5: your prize and a special shout out to the Louisiana

1722
01:23:43,360 --> 01:23:46,920
Speaker 5: Ragon Caguns who covered the live fifteen and a half

1723
01:23:47,160 --> 01:23:51,600
Speaker 5: while I was editing this podcast. Guys are all right, just.

1724
01:23:51,640 --> 01:23:53,400
Speaker 3: Leave a five star review, borrow someone's phone if you've

1725
01:23:53,400 --> 01:23:55,320
Speaker 3: already done it helps us out. You can make fun

1726
01:23:55,360 --> 01:23:58,479
Speaker 3: of me for dumpster diving. Whatever, just five star review.

1727
01:23:59,040 --> 01:24:03,519
Speaker 3: Do appreciate it. Let's keep it rolling this weekend. I'll

1728
01:24:03,560 --> 01:24:06,760
Speaker 3: see you in the dumpster. Let's have a day and

1729
01:24:07,040 --> 01:24:09,280
Speaker 3: by the way, we'll be back Monday morning. Recap the

1730
01:24:09,280 --> 01:24:13,000
Speaker 3: weekend nine bad beat call us all weekend. Let us

1731
01:24:13,040 --> 01:24:15,800
Speaker 3: know how you feel. Good luck to everyone, get you

1732
01:24:15,800 --> 01:24:16,120
Speaker 3: all later.

1733
01:24:16,200 --> 01:24:28,280
Speaker 1: Cheers, peace out,