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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that action boss.

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Speaker 1: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 2: We're growing. I'm sitting it to cash.

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Speaker 1: Stop.

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Speaker 2: We'll see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 2: go to wind.

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Speaker 1: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money. All right,

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Speaker 2: this is the ultimate kabai.

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Speaker 1: You want to pull.

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Speaker 2: And we are way all right. We're back here on

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Speaker 2: our AFC twenty twenty five win totals episodes. Here on

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Speaker 2: the Action Network Podcast, Part two of two. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: cover the AFC South and the AFC West. Be sure

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Speaker 2: to check out part one with the AFC East and

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Speaker 2: AFC North out Now, all.

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Speaker 1: Right, so where are we going?

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Speaker 2: Houston nine and a half of the wind total, plus

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Speaker 2: money slightly to the over at some spots thirty five

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Speaker 2: to one super Bowl right inside that forty to one

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Speaker 2: threshold of teams that have won over the past two decades.

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Speaker 2: Plus uh there actually plus money to win the division

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Speaker 2: at most spots plus one ten So no clear, you know,

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Speaker 2: no juiced favorite past fifty percent pliet odds. So I

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Speaker 2: mean Houston just had a meltdown last year. They did

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Speaker 2: change their offensive coordinator. You got Nick Kayley McVeigh type

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Speaker 2: of McVay type offense in there for Slowick, so great,

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Speaker 2: a lot more receivers, I think a lot less you know,

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Speaker 2: a lot more three to one spread out could help

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Speaker 2: the run game. Looks like you're gonna get chubbed in

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Speaker 2: there behind Mixing And you drafted Higgins wide receiver in

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Speaker 2: round two. You drafted Jalon Nowel and in round three

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Speaker 2: got a tackle, but you did lose Laramie Tunsil, who

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Speaker 2: was a top twenty tackle overall. Though, what are your

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Speaker 2: thoughts on this Texan squad?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's all about the offensive line. I do think

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Speaker 1: offensive coordinator Bump getting rid of Slowak. I think he

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Speaker 1: was a detriment to their offense in many different ways.

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Speaker 1: But you mentioned losing Tunsol last year the offense Lime

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Speaker 1: was just a disaster. I mean they couldn't do anything

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Speaker 1: and there was injuries and subpart play. They have a

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Speaker 1: lot of pieces now, we added a lot of pieces,

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Speaker 1: you know, through free agency and in the draft. Can

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Speaker 1: they put it all together? That's basically what this comes

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Speaker 1: down to. And can they get something from their younger receivers.

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Speaker 1: Because Tank Dell lost digs, Tank Dell's likely to miss

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Speaker 1: off twenty twenty five. I love the defense still and

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Speaker 1: Petrie getting him back will be big. Just their secondary

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Speaker 1: goes to another level when he's in there in his spot,

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Speaker 1: So yeah, comes out of the offensive line comes down

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Speaker 1: to are you a believer in Stroud? I still am.

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of last year was slowic the

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Speaker 1: offensive line, the injuries. Yeah, I think this team should

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Speaker 1: be favored to win the division. I project them at

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Speaker 1: nine to four, so I'm I'm close to the market here.

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Speaker 1: I do have them favored in thirteen games for what

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Speaker 1: it's worth, But I'm close to market here. And if

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Speaker 1: they can get the the defense can stay healthy, they

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Speaker 1: can get the offensive line figure it out, and then

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Speaker 1: you know, they get a couple other guys to step

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Speaker 1: up on the outside consistently. This is a team I

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Speaker 1: would consider as a long shot in the super Bowl market.

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Speaker 1: I think they have the defense. I'm a believer in Stroud,

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Speaker 1: but and I do think the offensive coordinator replacement will

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Speaker 1: provide a bump. So this is probably be the only

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Speaker 1: long shot I'm considered in the NFL because I'm a

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Speaker 1: believer in Stroud, but I'm pretty close to market mathematically,

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Speaker 1: what do you what are you saying.

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Speaker 2: Here, Yeah, I only have a favorite in nine games.

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Speaker 2: I have them a lot of coin flips, so I

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Speaker 2: could you could get to thirteen. But I think there's

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Speaker 2: a wide range outcome, so I want all upside. If

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Speaker 2: I'm taking Houston thirty five to one, super Bowl is

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Speaker 2: probably you know what I'd look at, but I really

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Speaker 2: but then again, I don't really like taking, you know,

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Speaker 2: betting against the big three in this in this conference either,

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Speaker 2: so it's it's tough. I don't really have anything on them,

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Speaker 2: but I know the division is tempting when you're talking

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Speaker 2: about Jacksonville, Indie and Tennessee versus Houston. But I still

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Speaker 2: think there's a there's a there's a ton of downside.

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Speaker 2: I mean, yes, Kaylee, it should be an upgrade, but uh,

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Speaker 2: you know, Slowack was very highly regarded two years ago

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Speaker 2: and it's just a complete regression last year. The left

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Speaker 2: tackle was not going to be as good. Regardless, I

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Speaker 2: don't think with Cam Robinson, who was grade out fifty third,

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Speaker 2: Tunsil was still a top twenty guy in his older age.

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Speaker 2: They got Tomlinson, he's been average. I mean it should

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Speaker 2: be an upgrade, but I mean the old life could

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Speaker 2: still be bad. The receivers, who knows, I mean Canico State, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: like Kirk, like, you know, we're all just expecting like

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Speaker 2: Higgins or Noel to be like the next Nico and

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Speaker 2: Tank Dell. But that's you know you no, no, that's

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Speaker 2: that's no guarantee. So I mean this, this offense may

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Speaker 2: just continue to be shaky. And they were. This was

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Speaker 2: a ten win team, but only eight and a half

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Speaker 2: ptagona wins essentially a five hundred team on by point

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Speaker 2: differential last year, so enough enough red flags for me

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Speaker 2: to kind of stay away. And they're the team I'll

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Speaker 2: talk about next is the team I'm really high on,

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Speaker 2: and that's that's what kind of stops me from betting

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Speaker 2: the division at plus one ten. But I really like

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Speaker 2: the I'm curious to hear your thoughts. I really like

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Speaker 2: the Jaguars upside. You know, they're seven and a half.

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Speaker 2: You know, Texans are the leader of the division with

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Speaker 2: nine and a half, Jacksonville seven and a half, Indy

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Speaker 2: seven and a half, Tennessee five and a half. Uh,

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Speaker 2: Jacksonville I think has some interesting upside because I have

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Speaker 2: a decent quarterback, you have a coach that took a

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Speaker 2: team that we already thought would like took a step

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Speaker 2: forward in the previous year. The offense, you know, under

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Speaker 2: Canalist he leaves and essentially goes from you know, twenty

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Speaker 2: points a game to thirty points a game for that

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Speaker 2: Bucks offense. Last year. You know you have Hunter, you

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Speaker 2: have Brian Thomas, you have you drafted tooting, so you

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Speaker 2: drafted drafted speed. Your your skill position should be better.

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Speaker 2: Your quarterback should have I mean you were he was

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Speaker 2: in the Doug he was in Urban Meyer and then

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Speaker 2: Doug Peterson Press Taylor like just completely antiquated offenses by

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Speaker 2: the time it was all said and done, so best

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Speaker 2: I think, best coaching staff of Lawrence's career. The defense

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Speaker 2: probably be shaky, but this could be a shootout team

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Speaker 2: and a bad division.

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Speaker 1: Uh.

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Speaker 2: And offense is still going to be offense still reigns supreme.

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Speaker 2: So uh. I could see this Jaguar team being in

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Speaker 2: al Houston for the division if Houston is the Houston

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Speaker 2: of last year and ends up winning you know eight

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Speaker 2: or nine. I actually have Houston about eight and a

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Speaker 2: half wins or when it's all said it done, so

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Speaker 2: I like Jacksonville plus two to sixty for the division.

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Speaker 2: I like the plus one seventy five to make the playoffs.

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Speaker 2: I like them over.

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Speaker 1: There, plus three out there for the division.

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Speaker 2: Oh well, yeah, it's whatever you can get on for

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Speaker 2: the division. Love love that and uh and yeah, I

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Speaker 2: just want to bet Jacksonville. Uh, pretty much all over

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Speaker 2: the place because there's only so many coaches, there's only

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Speaker 2: so many situations. I think where you know there could

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Speaker 2: there could be that much upside. And you know, ween Cone,

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Speaker 2: we don't really have a sample size, but the sample

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Speaker 2: size we do have of him taking over an offense.

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Speaker 2: He had that Rams situation, but that was still mcveag's offense.

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Speaker 2: And then we had the Bucks where they took like

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Speaker 2: a map, like an eight x step forward from what

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Speaker 2: they took the previous year. Mayfield, you know, put up

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Speaker 2: new career highs. You know, I mean he was down

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Speaker 2: to like his fourth and fifth and six receivers and

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Speaker 2: still the offenses balling. You know, the old line. I

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Speaker 2: love what he did with the O line with a

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Speaker 2: lot of the same pieces last year on the Bucks,

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Speaker 2: you know, same tackles. I think it was a rookie center.

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Speaker 2: You know, they go from one of the worst run teams,

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Speaker 2: worst yards before contact to one of the best with

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Speaker 2: you know, probably sixty percent of the same guys, same snaps. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: just like what he did. Think think he gives the

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Speaker 2: offense a lot of upside. It's always the offense is

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Speaker 2: always underperform. Lawrence is always underperformed a lot of parrels

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Speaker 2: between him and Mayfield in terms of draft pedigree and whatnot.

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Speaker 2: And then I mean the defense does have some talent

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Speaker 2: and defenses tended to over underperform as well. Not saying

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Speaker 2: it'll be like a Jeff Halfy jump, you know, but

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Speaker 2: you could see the defense playing better than it has,

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Speaker 2: which has been bottom of the league these last few years.

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Speaker 2: So I think this team could kind of have like

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Speaker 2: a poor Man's Bucks season from last year in terms

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Speaker 2: of the jump. So I love Jacksonville. This is the

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Speaker 2: team the most bullish and relatives to the market. What

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Speaker 2: are your thoughts.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not as bullsh as you, but just trusting

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Speaker 1: Liam Cohen. You didn't even go back to Kentucky when

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Speaker 1: he was at Kentucky. He was at Kentucky twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 1: then not in twenty twenty two, and then they're in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. Now, last year, the offense with him

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Speaker 1: and without them night and day wherever he goes, and

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Speaker 1: massive upgrade. A lot of upside here because you have

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Speaker 1: first time head coach OCDC. The offensive line does scare

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Speaker 1: me a lot, like the aleixond could be really bad again,

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Speaker 1: but you also have the Hunter cohenan.

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Speaker 2: Like he was. That's the thing that goes under radio

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Speaker 2: Like it wasn't just Bucky Irving last year. It wasn't

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Speaker 2: just Baker Mayfield last year. Like that offensive line with

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Speaker 2: like the same.

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Speaker 1: And what they were doing with their wide receiver injuries too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah wash, But yeah, it's trusting Cohen. How special can

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Speaker 1: Hunter be too on both sides of the ball that

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Speaker 1: you have some upside there with him and the offensive line? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: is so a question for me. But trusting Cohen, the

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Speaker 1: d has a good front seven overall. The secretary is

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Speaker 1: still the major question. The safeties are really bad, which

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Speaker 1: scares me. But when you look, especially after the buy,

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Speaker 1: let's just go after the buy, how many really scary

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Speaker 1: passing attacks do they face after the buy? Raiders, Texans, Chargers, Cardinals, Titans, Colts, Jets, Broncos, Colts,

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Speaker 1: Titans like they're they're not. I mean even before that,

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Speaker 1: I mean you have KC. There's I mean, they haven't

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Speaker 1: been that scary lately, but their schedule was kind of

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Speaker 1: magicable from a pass defense perspective, you know, especially after

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Speaker 1: like the first five, especially after the buye. So I

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Speaker 1: like the upside with the jag So yeah, don't hate

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Speaker 1: the division play. They also were three and ten in

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Speaker 1: one possession games last year, so maybe you get some

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Speaker 1: close game regression as well. But yeah, trust in Liam Cohen,

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Speaker 1: I don't hate them. I think they finished like nine

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Speaker 1: and eight, which could could be enough to win a division.

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Speaker 1: They get another like close game or two that breaks

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Speaker 1: their way. Texans don't live up to expectations. I just

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Speaker 1: don't see it with the Colts, and I don't see

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Speaker 1: it with the Titans getting there. So yeah, Liam Cohen,

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Speaker 1: I like the Jacks of the division. Flush talked about

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Speaker 1: the Colts.

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Speaker 2: They're seven and a half about even even juice each

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Speaker 2: way one hundred to one to win the Super Bowl.

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Speaker 2: They're plus three fifty to win a division. I actually

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Speaker 2: like the upside of I just don't think Richardson could

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Speaker 2: have to be any worse than he was last year.

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Speaker 2: Daniel Jones thinks, but like the team around him should

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Speaker 2: be better. So I didn't hate it, but now he's

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Speaker 2: you know, already injured, which is not ideal. And you're

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Speaker 2: not like Daniel Jones. I mean you're not. I know

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Speaker 2: they're calling it a competence, but the biggest coast one

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Speaker 2: you could give for your starting quarterback is to bring

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Speaker 2: in Daniel Jones to compete with them, like, come on now.

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Speaker 2: So I don't have much trust to Daniel Jones if

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Speaker 2: he has to now make starts. I mean he's twenty

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Speaker 2: four and forty four in his career. So yeah, I

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Speaker 2: don't really see it for Indianapolis either, though some of

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Speaker 2: the pieces around the quarterback definitely should be better. I mean,

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Speaker 2: just adding you know, a tight end like Warren, you know,

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Speaker 2: even get ins at that running back spot should help.

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Speaker 2: I think the defense will be solid, but it's never

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Speaker 2: a team I found myself too bullish on and they

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Speaker 2: always kind of hang around in these things. So maybe

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Speaker 2: I'm underrating them. But I only have him favored in

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Speaker 2: four games. Yeah, I only have him favorite in four games.

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Speaker 2: Have their win total right around seven? So what are

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Speaker 2: your thoughts on this Colt squad?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? I project them right around seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: A lot of that is. I mean, but the quarterback situation,

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Speaker 1: I don't trust Anthony Richardson. If it's Daniel Jones, we know,

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Speaker 1: I mean Daniel. I feel like Daniel Jens could be

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Speaker 1: starting twenty thirty somehow on the team, and we're gonna

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Speaker 1: be talking about this guy.

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Speaker 2: Now, like the Kevin O'Connell's team like something. Yeah, so yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 1: You're fed off going with Briley Leonard. But yeah, rich Soon,

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Speaker 1: I don't believe in and now he has the health questions. Interior,

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Speaker 1: the offensive line, they you know, they lost a couple

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Speaker 1: of starters, but I mean Portalini and on compas they

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Speaker 1: did have experience last year. So but that that's something

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Speaker 1: to watch how the offensive line performs in the interior.

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Speaker 1: The defense still has major questions on the back end.

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Speaker 1: Bunebacker in the secondary. I know they brought in Tarvarius Ward,

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Speaker 1: which should help and Cam bind him the lead, don't

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Speaker 1: burry the lead. I'm gonna getting there getting traction. Uh So, yeah,

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Speaker 1: Gus Bradley's out, So that's yeah. I gave him a

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Speaker 1: big bump on defense just for that. They got more

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Speaker 1: talented than the second So some questions in the back end.

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Speaker 1: But there's no more guys, Bradley. I mean, just go

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Speaker 1: back to that Giants game. That is the like that

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Speaker 1: Giants offense looked like the greatest show on turf that day,

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Speaker 1: which ended the Colts pull ups and that was just

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Speaker 1: like the summation of cous Braveley. So yeah, Lou Henrimo

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Speaker 1: is in massive upgrade of brother. You're gonna get different

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Speaker 1: looks which the Colts that haven't done in years. I

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Speaker 1: took them long enough, so their defense should be better

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Speaker 1: alone just there just the coordinator change. So but the

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Speaker 1: quarterback uncertainty is uh, it's just massive here. So I

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Speaker 1: mean I project them right around seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: They probably this is probably seven eight win team. I

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Speaker 1: think the numbers are out right, you know, for just

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Speaker 1: and takes a major lead and the defensive scheme is

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Speaker 1: so much better and everyone stays healthy, then you know

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Speaker 1: it's it's not a very difficult schedule. Then who knows,

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Speaker 1: maybe you can talk yourself an upside not for me

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Speaker 1: pass on the Colts.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is more of the reason why I don't

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Speaker 2: want to back Houston, even though they seem kind of

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Speaker 2: tempting as like the old you know, good deed in

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Speaker 2: this division as it stands right now, because I'm high

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Speaker 2: on the Jags and the Colts. I mean a wide

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Speaker 2: range of outcomes I think, and you know, my Jags

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Speaker 2: place could still get home with whether whatever the Colts do.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, nothing for me on the Colts as of now,

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Speaker 2: but we'll see how that kind of shapes up with

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Speaker 2: rich with the with the new surrounding Richardson. And then

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Speaker 2: we got the Titans. They're at five and a half

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Speaker 2: used to the over eight to one to win the division.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's not like if cam Ward is decent,

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Speaker 2: I'm not saying he's gonna be Jayden Daniels, but we

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Speaker 2: last year. Yeah, like a quarterback is gonna transform an

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Speaker 2: entire organization, and so yeah, I think cam Woard if

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Speaker 2: this all depends on awards, So what do you have

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Speaker 2: to let's start there. What are your thoughts on wards?

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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think I think that nobody knows

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Speaker 1: when it comes to quarterbacks, like literally nobody's It comes

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Speaker 1: down to like milliseconds and your head and processing time

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Speaker 1: and then the situation that you're in. I think he

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Speaker 1: has all the tools. I think he has way more

297
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Speaker 1: upside than and can't be any worse with the last year.

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Speaker 1: So I mean, I lost so much money on the

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Speaker 1: Titans last year were the worst against the spread team

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Speaker 1: of all time. Why not start off with they? No

301
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Speaker 1: I show value on They're over. I think, like, think

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Speaker 1: about how everything went wrong with them last year. By

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00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:37,800
Speaker 1: the way, they're two and six and one possession games.

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Speaker 1: Their quarterback play could have been worse, their offensive line

305
00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:41,360
Speaker 1: couldn't have been worse, and there was injuries all over.

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Speaker 1: There's special teams which they completely revamped, were a disaster

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Speaker 1: last year. They should just be better. And you remember

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Speaker 1: last year also was a complete rebuild. They only had

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Speaker 1: fifty four percent of their twenty twenty three starts still

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Speaker 1: on the roster. Last year. The next lowest team was

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Speaker 1: like sixty percent. I think it was the Bills. They

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Speaker 1: had thirteen new started, completely reb and everything went wrong.

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Speaker 1: I think the offensive line should be better, right expect

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Speaker 1: you know, Bushenbury Skanowski bump like Latham is big. But

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Speaker 1: Zeiler was a good signing. I think more. I don't

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Speaker 1: know why they paid him all the money, but he's

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Speaker 1: an upgrade from what they had at left tackle. So

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Speaker 1: the offensive line I think will be better. The quarterback

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Speaker 1: play will be better. There's still weak on the back

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Speaker 1: end of the defense. I mean, Browny needs to continue

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Speaker 1: to develop well. Steve bounce backers he just cooked. But

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Speaker 1: I don't think their defense could be much worse. The

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Speaker 1: schedule is tough initially overall, it's not I have twenty

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Speaker 1: fourth in schedule difficulty. But they start at Denver, Rams Indye,

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Speaker 1: at Houston, you know, at Arizona. But then I actually

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Speaker 1: like that for ward because rookie quarterback a lot of change.

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Speaker 1: Give me the hard games up front, right when you're

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Speaker 1: trying to figure things out, rookie quarterback, throw him into

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Speaker 1: the fire early. I'm fine with that. I actually like

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Speaker 1: so yeah, and maybe they'll finally win some close games

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Speaker 1: and special teams has hurt that. I think their special

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Speaker 1: teams will be better. They're sixteen and thirty five overall

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Speaker 1: the last three years, which is pretty crazy that. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this franchise has gone absolutely in the tank. But last

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Speaker 1: year they are two and six to one possession games.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I think I'm gonna buy low on

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Speaker 1: the Titans in this division with this schedule. I think

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Speaker 1: the offensive line will be better, quarterback will be better,

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Speaker 1: and I think they're being a little bit undervalued. I

340
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Speaker 1: like their bye before a home game against Houston, so

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Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna be in on the tap Titans.

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Speaker 1: Why not start off this year with a bet on

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Speaker 1: the Titans? Good lord?

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Speaker 2: I mean they were seventeenths in defensive dboa under coordinated

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Speaker 2: Denard Wilson last year's which I think, I mean, that's

346
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Speaker 2: probably overachieving. Now we know defense does regress to the mean,

347
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Speaker 2: but the fact that they were the mean is good

348
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Speaker 2: for a team that was that terrible. So yeah, I

349
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Speaker 2: think I think the quarterback just completely flips them around,

350
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Speaker 2: So I would I would lean over as well. The

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Speaker 2: only thing is I think I feel like, yeah, it's

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Speaker 2: it's it's I'm not as bullish on them as Ion

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Speaker 2: the Titans. Full disclosure, But.

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Speaker 1: You mean Jacks.

355
00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:23,800
Speaker 2: I mean excuse me, I mean yeah, the Jacks. But

356
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Speaker 2: of the teams of the non Jacks team in this division,

357
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Speaker 2: I would lean over on there. When the Titans win

358
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Speaker 2: total the second like the most, So yeah, i'd lean

359
00:19:34,359 --> 00:19:38,240
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Speaker 2: eight seven to seven to eight hope and why or

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00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:28,920
Speaker 2: text hope and why? All right, Ascus Chiefs eleven and

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00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,000
Speaker 2: a half is the win total. Now, this is like

390
00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:33,680
Speaker 2: a crazy thing about this Chiefs team before we even

391
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Speaker 2: get into roster and all this stuff. They were fifteen

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Speaker 2: games last year. Their toy deferential suggested they were a

393
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:45,920
Speaker 2: ten point two win team. That is a four point

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00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:53,680
Speaker 2: eight overperformance. That is just absolutely absurd. And you tend

395
00:21:53,720 --> 00:21:58,639
Speaker 2: to see those teams regress to the mean pretty pretty heavily.

396
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Speaker 2: Teams that overperformed back two or more wins the next season.

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Speaker 2: They're just fourteen and thirty with three pushes thirty two

398
00:22:07,840 --> 00:22:11,639
Speaker 2: percent to the over uh since two thousand and two.

399
00:22:11,800 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 2: So and then you look at obviously a smaller sample,

400
00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 2: but the Super Bowl loser for some reason, just doesn't

401
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:21,280
Speaker 2: have as much success as the winner. Teams off of

402
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 2: Super Bowl loss just thirty three percent over their win

403
00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:29,119
Speaker 2: total since oh two. So, uh, Chiefs are up at

404
00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:32,520
Speaker 2: eleven and a half. I have them projected for about

405
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:36,639
Speaker 2: eleven flat. I have all but one game, yeah, but

406
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:41,440
Speaker 2: ten nine yeah, and Reid is ten and two to

407
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:43,399
Speaker 2: the over, but just two into the last four years.

408
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 2: So the market's finally kind of caught up to the Chiefs.

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00:22:46,359 --> 00:22:48,200
Speaker 2: I think at this point, I don't. I don't really.

410
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:50,359
Speaker 2: You could make your case to go over the win

411
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:52,200
Speaker 2: total based on the track record, could make your case

412
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 2: to go under based on the trends. I don't really

413
00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:56,639
Speaker 2: want to touch any of that. I just want the

414
00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:59,400
Speaker 2: upside and the Chiefs they've they've made you know, seven

415
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,520
Speaker 2: mahomes year, They've lost in the conference championship twice, been

416
00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:05,080
Speaker 2: to the Super both the other five times. Just give

417
00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:09,800
Speaker 2: me the seven to one for Okay, there you go.

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00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean I lean under numbers wise, but like,

419
00:23:15,200 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 1: and they went eleven and zero one posession games last year,

420
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:20,600
Speaker 1: but they're gonna win more one possession games percentage wise

421
00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 1: than other teams. Why coaching my home's good kicker, like

422
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:27,719
Speaker 1: you just expect. I mean, eleven and a was kind

423
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 1: of crazy, and they definitely were lucky last year. To

424
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:33,760
Speaker 1: go fifteen and two. There's still some offensive line questions,

425
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 1: but rice back helps. I like their draft. There are

426
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:41,000
Speaker 1: some depth questions. The secondary is still a little iffy

427
00:23:41,600 --> 00:23:45,640
Speaker 1: in my opinion, but you got, this is a team

428
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Speaker 1: like every year I always track them. I have like

429
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Speaker 1: continuity ratings. So it's like teams that have like eighty

430
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:55,919
Speaker 1: percent of their starters back and then the same quarterback coach. Uh,

431
00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 1: it's it's based on percentage of starters back, same quarterback,

432
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 1: same coach, sam O c st DC. The only team

433
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 1: that's been in that in my top five the last

434
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:08,720
Speaker 1: three years is the Chiefs. Like you know what you're

435
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:10,399
Speaker 1: gonna get with them. I would like they need to

436
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 1: be more explosive on offense. They only had twenty nine

437
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:15,480
Speaker 1: plays at twenty five plus yards last year. That was

438
00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 1: half as many as the Ravens, the same as the Giants.

439
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,920
Speaker 1: So yeah, but I really like their By the way,

440
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 1: look out for Xavier or Streppo. I don't know if

441
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 1: he gets drafted in like best balls for that. He

442
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:31,119
Speaker 1: was an undrafted signed by the Texas at the Titans.

443
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 1: But I think that matching him back up with cam Ward,

444
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,960
Speaker 1: he might like actually do something as an undrafted rookie.

445
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:41,399
Speaker 1: But Royals I think has some juice. I just like

446
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 1: their whole draft, really smart organization. So but I mean

447
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,159
Speaker 1: I project eleven. Uh do I want to bet it?

448
00:24:50,840 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 1: I don't know. As of right now, I'm on the sidelines.

449
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:53,520
Speaker 1: It's under nothing now.

450
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just want the super Bowl ticket, you know,

451
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 2: like it's it's the Chief, So you're gonna it's not

452
00:24:59,520 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 2: gonna I get much shorter than do you know, eight

453
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 2: to one or whatever. Not. Maybe during the season, Uh,

454
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 2: it will, but I do I still want a piece

455
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:13,720
Speaker 2: of it. Preseason. Uh, I think they do start. Yeah,

456
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 2: they start Chargers, well, Chargers in Brazil, they host Philly

457
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 2: and then they have at the Giants, but then Baltimore.

458
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:25,280
Speaker 2: So I mean they could conceivably start you one and three,

459
00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:28,600
Speaker 2: two and two. So if you know, you could, uh

460
00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 2: you know, if you want to play their super Bowl

461
00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:34,320
Speaker 2: bypass it and see if and hope that they get

462
00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:35,800
Speaker 2: it gets longer.

463
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:39,919
Speaker 1: After home against Detroit first six weeks.

464
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's really where it is because then you got

465
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 2: well you got Washington Buffalo eight nine. Yeah, so yeah,

466
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:47,160
Speaker 2: that's after.

467
00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:52,400
Speaker 1: The schedule gets much easier. Yeah, but you might Yeah,

468
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,200
Speaker 1: I could see them starting like four and five and

469
00:25:55,320 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 1: then yeah, rattling off you know, like a seven and

470
00:26:02,720 --> 00:26:04,119
Speaker 1: one finish or something like that.

471
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:05,199
Speaker 2: Uh.

472
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 1: By the guess they finish eleven and six.

473
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you know, we kind of talked about

474
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:14,639
Speaker 2: Buffalo earlier. I think they're the team I want the

475
00:26:14,760 --> 00:26:18,200
Speaker 2: most in terms of, you know, breaking up the Super

476
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,320
Speaker 2: Bowl ticket between Buffalo probably Baltimore number two and then

477
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 2: the Chiefs number three. With the with the intention though,

478
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 2: to potentially add more to the Chiefs, you know, every

479
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 2: couple of weeks during the first half of the season,

480
00:26:29,400 --> 00:26:31,520
Speaker 2: because yeah, they have a really rough opener, so I

481
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 2: could see their ods getting longer like they did kind

482
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 2: of wait last year I think when Mahomes had had

483
00:26:37,359 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 2: had the injury and then he ended up missing any games.

484
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:44,600
Speaker 2: But yeah, should be opportunity in that first half now

485
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:47,760
Speaker 2: that I look at it too, to add even more

486
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:51,199
Speaker 2: on the Chiefs. So still like them super Bowl eight

487
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 2: to one.

488
00:26:52,119 --> 00:26:52,280
Speaker 1: Uh.

489
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,320
Speaker 2: Then you got the Broncos and the Chargers talked about

490
00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 2: them like both of them. You know, the Chiefs falter

491
00:27:01,400 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 2: but overall.

492
00:27:03,280 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 1: Again I'm against you here, I'm on the Chargers and Broncos'll.

493
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:09,760
Speaker 2: Talk about it. So they both nine and a half,

494
00:27:10,560 --> 00:27:12,480
Speaker 2: uh three to one to win a Division Charges twenty

495
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 2: five to one, Super Bowl Broncos thirty one. I'll start

496
00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 2: with the Chargers. You know Herbert and Hardball, those are keys.

497
00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 2: Still some question marks on offense. What do you think?

498
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, weapons start great, We'll see if the interier offensive

499
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:30,720
Speaker 1: line can be better. Shifting some guys around there. Looks

500
00:27:30,760 --> 00:27:33,760
Speaker 1: like Johnson's gonna move to center, Bosman to guard. Maybe

501
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:40,160
Speaker 1: that will help the defense. Still to me, isn't great.

502
00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 1: You could look at their numbers last year and like,

503
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 1: what look last year and they finished eleven and six.

504
00:27:47,119 --> 00:27:49,080
Speaker 1: They had actually they had a losing record in one

505
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:52,920
Speaker 1: possession games too. Hit a good year. But this year,

506
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 1: for what it's worth, they lose a home game against

507
00:27:54,520 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 1: Kansas City too, which is like a rarely a divisional

508
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 1: home game. You lose, but it's a Chargers. Does that

509
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 1: even matter? But last year versus winning teams, they went

510
00:28:06,600 --> 00:28:08,760
Speaker 1: three and six. Teams have finished with the winning record

511
00:28:08,800 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 1: three and six. They were outscored twenty five to twenty

512
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 1: on average. Two of those wins came against Denver, so

513
00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 1: they were one and six against all teams, all other

514
00:28:19,600 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 1: winning teams against the losing teams on their schedule. They

515
00:28:22,800 --> 00:28:25,119
Speaker 1: went eight to one, They outscored them by an average

516
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 1: of twenty six to eleven, and they feasted on some

517
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:33,919
Speaker 1: bad quarterbacks. I think this team is still pretty far

518
00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:37,879
Speaker 1: away from like the upper echelon of h see. They

519
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:40,800
Speaker 1: just feasted on bad teams last year. I mean, even

520
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:45,400
Speaker 1: if you look at the quarterbacks they faced so top

521
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:48,840
Speaker 1: top tenish top twelve ish quarterbacks, they only faced Stix

522
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 1: Strouded Mahomes, Mahomes and it's not like Mahomes top tier

523
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 1: during the regular season, but Baker, Mayfield, Barrow and Lamar.

524
00:28:57,680 --> 00:28:59,479
Speaker 1: They went one in five and those games gave up

525
00:29:00,200 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 1: to twenty eight points per game against the other twelve quarterbacks,

526
00:29:03,920 --> 00:29:07,640
Speaker 1: which is Minshew, Bryce Young early in the season when

527
00:29:07,680 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 1: he was awful, Cousins when he was playing completely Hurts,

528
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:16,320
Speaker 1: just throwing in the ball, Levis Winston, Rattler Fields, Mary

529
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 1: may O'Connell Nicks twice. They went ten to two and

530
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 1: allowed fourteen points per game. Like their schedule really shaped

531
00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:27,560
Speaker 1: how that season went and how I think that they're

532
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 1: perceived now this year. Their quarterbacks that projected the face

533
00:29:31,440 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 1: like Young Mahomes twice, Like it's still it's pretty easy

534
00:29:36,520 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 1: again from a quarterback perspective, but there is a lot

535
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 1: of uncertainty what happens with the Giants quarterback situation Tennessee, Minnesota, Indianapolis,

536
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 1: So there's some some variance with the quarterbacks. But yeah,

537
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:55,360
Speaker 1: I'm just not as high I project them eight nine.

538
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:57,880
Speaker 1: So I would lean under on the Chargers. I think

539
00:29:57,920 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 1: this team is further away. I love Herbert and hardball,

540
00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,120
Speaker 1: but this this team starts holes on both sides of

541
00:30:04,120 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 1: the ball, like subtle love the weapons, So questions about

542
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 1: the interier offensive line, the defense I think is further

543
00:30:12,520 --> 00:30:18,040
Speaker 1: away than people assume. And uh, yeah, I would lean

544
00:30:18,120 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 1: under on the Chargers. Why are you so high on them?

545
00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 2: So let me rephrase this. I'm not necessarily I'm at

546
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 2: nine to five, so but I do have them favorite

547
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 2: in thirteen games. I'm talking more the Chiefs. Yeah, so

548
00:30:31,640 --> 00:30:33,440
Speaker 2: the Chiefs have a real The Chiefs do have a

549
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:38,960
Speaker 2: tough schedule. And I'm just saying if the Chiefs falter

550
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:41,280
Speaker 2: like as much as you can poke holes in the

551
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 2: Chargers and order the Broncos like, one of those two

552
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:48,680
Speaker 2: teams is going to benefit. I think. So that's more

553
00:30:48,800 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 2: why I think the Chargers are like you have to

554
00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 2: consider them in your like in the AFC long shot discussion,

555
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:57,680
Speaker 2: and I mean both Charges and Broncos both three to

556
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 2: one to win the division unlikely. But again the Chiefs,

557
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 2: they were a ten point two win team. Their offense

558
00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 2: has been league average the last couple of years. If

559
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:08,840
Speaker 2: they haven't, you know, they're putting a lot on you know,

560
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:13,160
Speaker 2: Kelsey's gonna be thirty six, you know, Worthy, Rice worthies

561
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:15,320
Speaker 2: in year two. Rice, I mean, what are you gonna get?

562
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 2: Is he gonna stay healthy, He's gonna stay out of trouble.

563
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:20,560
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, and then the old line could

564
00:31:20,560 --> 00:31:23,239
Speaker 2: still not be great, right, I mean, he's gonna try

565
00:31:23,280 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 2: sue him a tay at guard. You gotta hope your

566
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 2: rookie hits and your free agent signing hit so that

567
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 2: you can get you can stop starting tailor. I mean

568
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 2: lost Toney, who was versatile. Even if you had amount

569
00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 2: of position, I mean, it could still it could still

570
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 2: not be much different from years past. For Casey's that's

571
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 2: more wild like charges. But yeah, I agree, I think

572
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 2: the charges, the defense particularly, I think is actually the

573
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 2: bigger question because they they showed, you know, on offense,

574
00:31:49,600 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 2: Herbert can carry them and they can beat bad teams

575
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 2: or bad quarterbacks just because of the quarterback that they have.

576
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 2: But I mean, you lost Joey Bosa, you low, so

577
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 2: you're like your second best ed rusher. You lost your

578
00:32:02,120 --> 00:32:05,400
Speaker 2: best interior lineman Pune of four who rated out top five.

579
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 2: You lost your best corner, Christian Fulton. So their questions

580
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:14,280
Speaker 2: are pretty much every level of the defense. And you

581
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:17,040
Speaker 2: know that that that is concerning. But that's that's why

582
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 2: I think the Chargers are more straight upside play. The

583
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 2: Broncos I think are interesting because when I look at them, like,

584
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 2: I like their rost. I mean, they got really lucky

585
00:32:26,680 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 2: in terms of injuries too, So that's that's the one

586
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 2: thing with them. But ah, when I look at their roster,

587
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 2: I think they got better on defense because now you've

588
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:41,479
Speaker 2: got Jday Barron, a first round corner, you got Savian Jones,

589
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 2: you got ke Robinson from l S and Bama respectively

590
00:32:46,000 --> 00:32:48,600
Speaker 2: early in the draft. He added have an Ingram at

591
00:32:48,640 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 2: tight end, which is an upgrade over what they've had,

592
00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 2: even if he's on the down side of his career.

593
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 2: He got rid of Williams, which is a diitioner bias subtraction.

594
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 2: And you added Harvey much more explosive, still might not

595
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:02,360
Speaker 2: be done in that room. So and then I thought

596
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 2: bo Nicks got better as the season progressed. So and

597
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:09,880
Speaker 2: you got Sean Payton. So you're gonna win games on

598
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 2: the road. You're gonna win games underdog. You got the

599
00:33:11,680 --> 00:33:16,160
Speaker 2: home field advantage. Uh seven, you know, only seven road

600
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 2: games because one of them is a Week six game

601
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 2: in London against the Jets. Nine home games including ones

602
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:28,800
Speaker 2: against Tennessee, the Giants, Cowboys, Jaguars, if you're not feeling them,

603
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:32,920
Speaker 2: of course the Raiders. So I like the Broncos to

604
00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 2: be the second best team in the division, but I

605
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 2: think both of them are just in that consideration if

606
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 2: if if the Chiefs falter, But I like the Broncos

607
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 2: a lot more as a team. What are your thoughts

608
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:43,200
Speaker 2: on them?

609
00:33:44,320 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not there yet. I think they're a little

610
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:49,840
Speaker 1: overvalued in the market as well. I mean it's the

611
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 1: same thing with the Chargers. I mean I projected close

612
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:54,640
Speaker 1: to nine, just like the Chargers. I mean last year

613
00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:59,400
Speaker 1: with the Broncos, who do they be teams with winning records?

614
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 1: They went one in eight, one in eight if you

615
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 1: if let's ignore the Chiefs Week eight team when they

616
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:08,440
Speaker 1: sat the entire team and let's include the playoffs for

617
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 1: their season their one playoff game, they went one to

618
00:34:11,040 --> 00:34:14,759
Speaker 1: eight against teams with winning record. They averaged sixteen points

619
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:16,879
Speaker 1: per game in those games those nine games, that would

620
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 1: be thirtieth in the NFL. Overall, they allowed twenty five.

621
00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 1: That'd be twenty second in the NFL. Would they do

622
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 1: against teams a losing records? They went eight to no.

623
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 1: They averaged thirty one points per game and held teams

624
00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 1: to fifteen that would be number one in the NFL

625
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:32,440
Speaker 1: in both or I think three on offense number one

626
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:38,240
Speaker 1: and off on defense, Like they just feasted on horrible teams.

627
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:40,719
Speaker 1: I know Nicks got better, but who showed me a

628
00:34:40,800 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 1: performance with this Broncos team last year and the bilk

629
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 1: The defense is going to be nasty. That should be

630
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:49,839
Speaker 1: really good, but we know defenses year to year. Maybe

631
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:52,920
Speaker 1: you know some players on the team take a step back,

632
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:54,359
Speaker 1: but I mean it should be good. And I love

633
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:57,399
Speaker 1: their draft. The offensive line should be good. I'm still

634
00:34:57,480 --> 00:35:00,439
Speaker 1: not all the way there on Knicks, And like show

635
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:02,360
Speaker 1: me last year one game where you're like, oh, this

636
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 1: team could compete in the a F one game, Like

637
00:35:06,640 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 1: just one game against anyone the whole year where you're like, oh,

638
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:11,360
Speaker 1: that was a good opponent, and I like, I like

639
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:13,000
Speaker 1: the result. Zero.

640
00:35:13,080 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 2: You gotta look at it this way. You gotta look

641
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 2: at it this way. Last year they went you say,

642
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:20,640
Speaker 2: one and eight against teams with winning records.

643
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:24,800
Speaker 1: Yep, and we're removing the Chiefs Week eight team. So

644
00:35:24,880 --> 00:35:27,600
Speaker 1: they finished nine and seven because they have to.

645
00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:28,760
Speaker 2: They go one and eight against anyone?

646
00:35:29,840 --> 00:35:31,680
Speaker 1: What one and oh?

647
00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 2: You're talking about the playoffs.

648
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:35,839
Speaker 1: So I concluded the Bills, put it the Bills game

649
00:35:36,080 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 1: and removed removed the Chiefs Week eight team.

650
00:35:38,800 --> 00:35:41,840
Speaker 2: So one in seven in the regular season, yes, and

651
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:43,480
Speaker 2: they won and then they won ten games. They went

652
00:35:43,560 --> 00:35:44,560
Speaker 2: nine and oh against teams.

653
00:35:44,360 --> 00:35:45,000
Speaker 1: A losing records.

654
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:48,799
Speaker 2: Well, now, eighth year they played, they played the same

655
00:35:48,840 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 2: amount of games against winning teams. Eight. Yeah, they're gonna

656
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 2: start they should be better against winning teams. Obviously you're

657
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 2: gonna regress from what what is it nine and zero

658
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:00,879
Speaker 2: or something nine and oh against the losing teams. But ah,

659
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:03,680
Speaker 2: like this is this, I mean, it's.

660
00:36:03,600 --> 00:36:08,799
Speaker 1: Hard team again. I just think they're nine wing team again,

661
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:10,759
Speaker 1: like last year they were nine when they beat the

662
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:13,480
Speaker 1: Chiefs Week A team. Who started. I started a quarterback,

663
00:36:13,719 --> 00:36:16,320
Speaker 1: like the game doesn't count easily could have won finish

664
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 1: with nine when the Chiefs never lose to the Broncos.

665
00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:24,319
Speaker 1: So they're like a I think that the numbers. I mean,

666
00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:26,800
Speaker 1: I would lean. I mean, I'm close to the number,

667
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 1: but uh, if I had to, I bet the under

668
00:36:29,600 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 1: I do think they're building the rosters one. I think

669
00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:32,960
Speaker 1: the defense is potentially be the best the NFL. I

670
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:34,920
Speaker 1: like the offensive line. I'm still not there Knicks. I

671
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 1: also love Harvey, So there's things I like about this team.

672
00:36:38,120 --> 00:36:43,040
Speaker 1: But I just project them close to nine, and uh yeah,

673
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:45,040
Speaker 1: I wouldn't they've been. I mean, there's some things I

674
00:36:45,080 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 1: could I could see the case to Broncos. They want

675
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 1: one in six and one possession games, but I just

676
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:52,600
Speaker 1: think that they're not They're not like in this upper

677
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:55,240
Speaker 1: echelon right now. And there's also a chance that Knicks

678
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:59,560
Speaker 1: has like a disastrous year. Just saying so, I'm not

679
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 1: there with Lebroncos lost, I don't think it'd be bad.

680
00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:03,919
Speaker 2: I have a nine eight and favored in twelve games.

681
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:05,640
Speaker 2: I think I think there's a lot of upside there.

682
00:37:05,640 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 2: I mean, you know that even the receiver they drafted, Brian,

683
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:12,320
Speaker 2: I think gives them some upside. Harvey mentioned got a

684
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 2: first round corner, adding to certain, I mean the draft. Yeah,

685
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm saying it's hard to really poke holes.

686
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:20,880
Speaker 2: But it's more so it's not like I want to

687
00:37:20,960 --> 00:37:23,839
Speaker 2: just go hammering there over. It's if the Chiefs falter,

688
00:37:24,000 --> 00:37:27,240
Speaker 2: it's it's not just going to benefit the Bills and Ravens,

689
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 2: like it's probably gonna benefit one of these two teams

690
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 2: in the West, Like one of these two teams will

691
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 2: probably win like twelve thirteen games just because.

692
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:39,800
Speaker 1: Just let you know, when when Tennessee beats then wins

693
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:43,520
Speaker 1: in Denver week one with a rookie quarterback, I'll be

694
00:37:43,560 --> 00:37:45,120
Speaker 1: smarting on the podcast next time.

695
00:37:45,040 --> 00:37:49,720
Speaker 2: A point win. Yeah, but then again, your track record

696
00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:52,520
Speaker 2: with Tennessee says otherwise. But it's the new year, New Year.

697
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:55,960
Speaker 2: I was, I was over. I was Denver was like

698
00:37:56,040 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 2: my most that over last year. Them and Carol on

699
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:06,920
Speaker 2: back all right, uh Vegas. I mean, Pete Carroll, six

700
00:38:07,000 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 2: and a half of the Winter Child are in the

701
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:10,440
Speaker 2: last one hundred to one Super Bowl odds sixteen to

702
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:14,000
Speaker 2: one for the division. You got Pete Carroll, you got

703
00:38:14,080 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 2: Chick Kelly at offensive coordinated. You got Geno Smith. I like,

704
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:20,279
Speaker 2: this team just wants to be super mid but they're

705
00:38:20,320 --> 00:38:24,279
Speaker 2: in a really tough division. Uh, what are you throws

706
00:38:24,280 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 2: on the Raiders? Uh?

707
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:30,239
Speaker 1: Gino in the dome? You know he plays some. I

708
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:33,000
Speaker 1: mean it's an upgraded quarterback. I'm curious to see what

709
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:36,960
Speaker 1: jents he does. He's still really bad though, Like I

710
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 1: don't I feel bad for Patrick Graham.

711
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 2: They do have likely survived because he liked the new

712
00:38:41,280 --> 00:38:43,239
Speaker 2: Gus Bradley. He's better, thank Us Bradley obviously, but like,

713
00:38:43,440 --> 00:38:45,279
Speaker 2: surviving all these regimes is pretty nuts.

714
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, he was. I think he was about to be

715
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 1: gone and then he had a meeting with Carol and

716
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 1: they brought him back. There's a lot of winnable games

717
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:57,640
Speaker 1: in the schedule, like I don't know ten or eleven

718
00:38:57,640 --> 00:38:59,279
Speaker 1: where I'm like, I wouldn't be shocked if they want

719
00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 1: Now they're not going to in all those games, I

720
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 1: don't think. But uh, but their wind total, like with

721
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:08,319
Speaker 1: juices around seven, I project them at seven. Uh. They

722
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:10,440
Speaker 1: get Kansas City at home in the last game of

723
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 1: the year.

724
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:11,759
Speaker 2: Mm hmm.

725
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:14,640
Speaker 1: Could be big for the wind total. We saw that

726
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:18,359
Speaker 1: with Denver last year, so there's a chance Kansas City's

727
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 1: resting guys there, and like, yeah, like you have the

728
00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:26,279
Speaker 1: Giants at home, the Browns at home, the Jags at home,

729
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 1: the Cowboys at home, the Titans at home. Like there's

730
00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:34,919
Speaker 1: some winnable especially home games here. But I'm right on market.

731
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:40,080
Speaker 1: Uh I might look at them, obviously, I'm gonna look

732
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 1: at them certain weeks. I could see me being on them,

733
00:39:44,120 --> 00:39:46,799
Speaker 1: but uh, I'm right on market. Not not much else

734
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:49,560
Speaker 1: to say. It's the d these is so big still,

735
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 1: Like the D line is good, but then what else

736
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:54,600
Speaker 1: you got? The back end is just devoid of talent.

737
00:39:55,480 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I'm kind of I mean, I know the

738
00:39:56,920 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 2: track record of Carol and and Gino and but I

739
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:07,840
Speaker 2: mean you're putting all of these like mediocre older people

740
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:13,240
Speaker 2: together for the first time, Like this could go poorly

741
00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 2: as well, sure, like you know what I mean. And

742
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:17,839
Speaker 2: they do have like I think their easiest road game

743
00:40:18,040 --> 00:40:22,120
Speaker 2: would have to be at Indie, which is which I mean,

744
00:40:22,160 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 2: it's not that's not great, you know, like they got

745
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:27,839
Speaker 2: at New England maybe one of those two that's their

746
00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:28,799
Speaker 2: easiest road games.

747
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 1: So they've got Denver. Denver, don't hate the easiest road game.

748
00:40:37,000 --> 00:40:38,240
Speaker 1: Is probably week one at New England.

749
00:40:38,360 --> 00:40:41,040
Speaker 2: Like there's a lot with a yeah, depending on the quarterback.

750
00:40:41,320 --> 00:40:43,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, because like New England has all these changes in

751
00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 1: the off seasons, so we don't know if how it's

752
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 1: going to look right away, so there's a chance they

753
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 1: could steal that. Uh but yeah, I think I think

754
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:56,080
Speaker 1: that the numbers right, Yeah, I.

755
00:40:56,080 --> 00:40:58,560
Speaker 2: Have them six seven, but I don't feel great about that.

756
00:40:58,719 --> 00:41:00,440
Speaker 2: And when I look at their good I only have

757
00:41:00,480 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 2: a favorite in four or so. Nothing nothing for me

758
00:41:02,680 --> 00:41:05,520
Speaker 2: on that. But let's uh, let's do a recap of

759
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 2: our best bets from the episode Stuck.

760
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:13,279
Speaker 1: You can go first, uh A f C South, I

761
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 1: don't hate Jacks for the division, Titans over Titans podcast baby,

762
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:23,080
Speaker 1: AFC North. Nothing really, I might bet the Brown's over,

763
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:25,240
Speaker 1: but there's a lot of moving parts and I gotta

764
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:30,279
Speaker 1: before I dive in. We're on pause. There a FC

765
00:41:30,480 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 1: East Miami under uh that's probably my favorite under in

766
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:39,520
Speaker 1: the A f C. And then uh A f C West.

767
00:41:41,000 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 1: I lean Chargers in Broncos under I don't. I'm probably

768
00:41:45,040 --> 00:41:47,640
Speaker 1: gonna have one of them, not sure which one yet.

769
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:52,080
Speaker 1: I also lean Chiefs under Geezers I need you, but yeah,

770
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:57,600
Speaker 1: nothing nothing official yet in the AFC West, So Titan's

771
00:41:57,640 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 1: over maybe Brown's over Dolphins under division long shot Jags,

772
00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:05,680
Speaker 1: and don't mind the Jags over either. All right for me,

773
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 1: it is.

774
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 2: Super Bowl wise, Bill's seven to one, Ravens seven to one,

775
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:18,320
Speaker 2: Chief state the onete with the most on the Bills,

776
00:42:19,080 --> 00:42:24,239
Speaker 2: and then win total wise looking at really Jacksonville is

777
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 2: the only one that I want to play now, but

778
00:42:29,600 --> 00:42:33,759
Speaker 2: I also lean over on the Titans at five and

779
00:42:33,800 --> 00:42:39,239
Speaker 2: a half. Wean over the Patriots at at seven and

780
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:42,880
Speaker 2: a half, under the Dolphins at eight and a half. Oh,

781
00:42:42,960 --> 00:42:44,719
Speaker 2: and I like to steal. I think my other wind

782
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:47,319
Speaker 2: toltals that I like that I played now just because

783
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 2: you can get plus juice is the Steelers over eight

784
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:52,319
Speaker 2: and a half. And then I also like the Jaguars

785
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 2: for the division.

786
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 1: And you wouldn't play Miami now with like trade wrist.

787
00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:01,480
Speaker 2: Actually yeah, yeah, yeah, that's a point. Yeah, we can talk.

788
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:06,000
Speaker 2: We can say that Dolphins are play so Dolphins, Steelers, Jags,

789
00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:11,319
Speaker 2: Dolphins under, Steelers over Jags over for win totals, uh,

790
00:43:11,600 --> 00:43:17,759
Speaker 2: and then Jags division Jags playoffs. And then in the

791
00:43:17,880 --> 00:43:21,840
Speaker 2: West just just just casey for the Super Bowl and

792
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:24,480
Speaker 2: if you're really fading, Casey, I think you gotta go

793
00:43:24,600 --> 00:43:27,560
Speaker 2: with Charges or Denver, but Denver is the one I'm

794
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 2: more bullish on, but nothing official on them yet, So

795
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:33,120
Speaker 2: all right. That does it. For Part two of our

796
00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five AFC Win Totals episodes here on the

797
00:43:36,120 --> 00:43:40,719
Speaker 2: Action Network podcast, where we covered the AFC South and

798
00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:43,719
Speaker 2: the AFC West. Be sure to also check out part one,

799
00:43:44,080 --> 00:43:47,120
Speaker 2: where we cover the AFC East and the AFC North.

800
00:43:47,200 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 2: NFC Next up, go. Action Network reminds you please gambler responsibly.

801
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:04,800
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.

802
00:44:05,160 --> 00:44:08,120
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803
00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:08,600
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