Speaker 1: Hey to everybody.
Speaker 2: Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast, brought to you
Speaker 2: by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can
Speaker 2: find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is
Speaker 2: week fourteen of the NFL season.
Speaker 1: It's time to.
Speaker 2: Talk about our best bets from a spread or money
Speaker 2: line or totals perspective. Here to do that with me
Speaker 2: is Pat Fitzmorris. Find them on Twitter at fits Underscore
Speaker 2: ff Fits.
Speaker 1: How are you today?
Speaker 3: I'm good, Dan? How are you?
Speaker 2: I'm doing all right? We have both locked our dogs
Speaker 2: in another room far away. That's one of our favorite
Speaker 2: things to do when we podcast together, which is fairly often,
Speaker 2: which is to make sure that the dogs cannot get
Speaker 2: in and ruin our entire podcasts.
Speaker 1: Are you are you? You feel comfortable?
Speaker 2: We've got a good half hour forty five minutes here
Speaker 2: where you can survive.
Speaker 3: By lock far away? You mean sleeping next to me? Right? Oh? No,
Speaker 3: much so? All right, that's okay.
Speaker 4: I've got an emergency bone at the ready in case
Speaker 4: I need it. If he wakes up and wants to
Speaker 4: annoy me. That would buy us enough time, I think
Speaker 4: to finish the show.
Speaker 1: Very good.
Speaker 2: Well, I was lucky enough for my dog to write
Speaker 2: before we start recording, see the neighborhood, Bobcat and run
Speaker 2: downstairs barking up crazy. And then I just locked the
Speaker 2: door behind it. So we should be good here. But
Speaker 2: if you hear some scratching, that is that is him
Speaker 2: trying to get in. All right, let's get into it, Pat,
Speaker 2: This is gonna be a good show for us, as
Speaker 2: people will find out shortly, because I know you and
Speaker 2: I think very similarly on a lot of things, and
Speaker 2: it does look like we may be on the opposite
Speaker 2: side of a couple of things today. But before we do,
Speaker 2: let's talk about a couple of housekeeping items.
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Speaker 2: New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona,
Speaker 2: and Wyoming. All right, quick recap up last week. It
Speaker 2: was not a good week for this podcast, pat So.
Speaker 2: And it's been a little bit stagnant lately, myself, our guests. Frankly,
Speaker 2: it hasn't been you know, we haven't been blowing the
Speaker 2: doors off here. So Ian McMillan, who is having one
Speaker 2: of the great betting seasons of all time. He bets
Speaker 2: every single NFL game. He's up something like twenty five
Speaker 2: units on the season. Like he's doing great. He went
Speaker 2: out for three, He missed on the Bears, getting eight
Speaker 2: from the Cardinals. The Raiders lank two and a half
Speaker 2: to Washington, and the Ravens and the Steelers over forty four.
Speaker 2: I went one and two. I missed on the Vikings
Speaker 2: laying seven to the Lions, which was not close. The
Speaker 2: second Adamsdally got injured, I realized, like, this is not
Speaker 2: going to end well. Regardless. I also missed on the
Speaker 2: Bills lank three to the Patriots. The one I hit
Speaker 2: on was the Chargers getting three from the Bengals, which
Speaker 2: was my favorite of the weekend. That's nineteen and twenty
Speaker 2: on the year. That's obnoxious after a good start. So Pat,
Speaker 2: we have to get back on track here. I know, Pat,
Speaker 2: that we are not going to go six and oh
Speaker 2: on our six favorite bets here, as you and I
Speaker 2: may have discussed before we started recording. We can start there,
Speaker 2: or we can start wherever.
Speaker 1: You want. Give me a bet that you're looking at
Speaker 1: this weekend.
Speaker 4: Well, Dan, and I'm surprised this was not the one
Speaker 4: that we agreed on necessarily because I know all about
Speaker 4: your blind loyalty to the New York Jets, your willingness
Speaker 4: to overlook their myriad deficiencies.
Speaker 1: None of this is true whatsoever, but go ahead.
Speaker 4: So I was kind of surprised you did not like
Speaker 4: them catching five and a half points at home against
Speaker 4: the Saints, who have lost five straights and have Taysom
Speaker 4: Hill at quarterback. Who yeah, I mean he was Harry
Speaker 4: Houdini with the rushing against the Cowboys.
Speaker 3: A fat lot of.
Speaker 4: Good it did them in that game. In his last appearance.
Speaker 4: I mean, he's just a terrible passer and has since.
Speaker 4: You know, now he's got this finger issue, So like,
Speaker 4: what is that going to look like? I know the
Speaker 4: Jets defense is bad, but I don't think Taysom Hill
Speaker 4: is capable of capitalizing on that. And the Jets have
Speaker 4: averaged twenty two point eight points a game since Week eight.
Speaker 4: This is actually a functional offense, and like Elijah Moore
Speaker 4: has added a lot of spark here, Like I love
Speaker 4: the five and a half points. I mean, I'm gonna
Speaker 4: lock in the safe five and a half, but I'm
Speaker 4: probably gonna put a little something on the money too.
Speaker 4: I Mean, the Saints team is like they're done. They
Speaker 4: know they're not playoff bound. So it's not like you
Speaker 4: are going to get this spunky, fighting for their life
Speaker 4: Saints team, like they know they're not going to make
Speaker 4: the playoffs.
Speaker 2: Why well all that, why do you say five and seven?
Speaker 2: I mean we're gonna talk. Oh you know what I've had,
Speaker 2: I should have talked about the Vikings tonight. I'm sorry,
Speaker 2: you're right, because I know we had talked about that earlier.
Speaker 2: I'll tell you what, we'll talk about that at the
Speaker 2: end of the show. We'll talk about the game because
Speaker 2: people will have probably seen that game already by the
Speaker 2: time they listen to this anyway, But we talked about
Speaker 2: the Vikings at five and seven, like they're still in
Speaker 2: the playoffs. You never know it's the seventh spot, man,
Speaker 2: I mean, the Saints are still there.
Speaker 4: I guess, man, But five straight Dan with Taysom Hill
Speaker 4: at quarterback, I mean, they just they don't have a
Speaker 4: quarterback who can win out. They need to win out,
Speaker 4: and they're just not gonna do it with what they
Speaker 4: have on offense right now.
Speaker 2: All right, Well, I will say this. I'll point a
Speaker 2: couple of things out, just so you know. This has
Speaker 2: nothing to do with why I'm not taking the but
Speaker 2: I will point out Elijah Moore is battling the quad
Speaker 2: injury like that popped up on the practice report, which
Speaker 2: and it didn't sound like Robert Solid didn't come out
Speaker 2: and been like this is nothing, it's maintenance, We're going
Speaker 2: to take it easy. It was something where he was like, yeah,
Speaker 2: we'll see about it. So I'm at least a little
Speaker 2: cautious there. Tevin Coleman, also dealing with the concussion, may
Speaker 2: not play, and I know it's Tevin Coleman. It's not
Speaker 2: like that makes a huge difference, but they are dealing
Speaker 2: with some injuries. Keeling cole By the way, just as
Speaker 2: we were sitting down the record placed on the COVID
Speaker 2: nineteen list, I don't know the details of that. Again,
Speaker 2: not that that matters that much, right, It's not like
Speaker 2: these guys are doing it pad. I just like I
Speaker 2: can see a scenario with Alvin Kamara back in this game,
Speaker 2: which he's supposed to be that I won't say a
Speaker 2: Patriots esque game plan here, but they can just go
Speaker 2: out there and run the ball non stop whatsoever. And
Speaker 2: if you have, let's say, the one thing the Saints
Speaker 2: do really well on defense is stop the run. And
Speaker 2: if the Jets can't run the ball at all, and
Speaker 2: you're looking at it has to be Zach Wilson to
Speaker 2: put up points here with the inability to move the
Speaker 2: ball on the ground, that just makes me worried. Man,
Speaker 2: I don't like the Saints. I'm not taking the Saints
Speaker 2: on the road laying the weird dead number of five
Speaker 2: and a half. But it's a game that I looked
Speaker 2: at and I just went, ugh, this is a game
Speaker 2: I want to run away from. Uh So that's really
Speaker 2: why that's where my hesitation comes from.
Speaker 3: Understandable, Yeah, I'm just.
Speaker 4: I agree that the Saints defense is pretty good and
Speaker 4: the running game could be an issue, although I think
Speaker 4: even if Tevin Coleman isn't able to go, I think
Speaker 4: they would be able to squeeze enough out of ty
Speaker 4: Tyd Johnson. And there who's the mischievous Walter Austin Walter.
Speaker 3: I forgot about his name.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so should I mean should we like the under
Speaker 4: here at forty two and a half?
Speaker 3: Too?
Speaker 2: It was under consideration for me, Pat for sure. I my,
Speaker 2: you know, if they're ever a defensive score, I could
Speaker 2: see happening here. But yeah, I mean, look, why would
Speaker 2: you throw the ball if you're the Saints in this game?
Speaker 2: I mean, the Jets cannot stop the run. You have
Speaker 2: your best playmaker obviously on offense is Alvin Kamara, and
Speaker 2: you've got a quarterback who's got mallet finger and by
Speaker 2: the way, doesn't even have the Deontay Harris, right, like,
Speaker 2: let me have a slant and take it seventy yards
Speaker 2: to the house. It does strike me as the under
Speaker 2: is the right play when it's a total that low,
Speaker 2: and I'm about to take an over under also on
Speaker 2: the under, also with a total that's close to that low.
Speaker 2: But it gives me sort of concerns. But I do
Speaker 2: like the under better than the side in this one.
Speaker 2: You like the under as well if you had to
Speaker 2: go one way.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like the under two, but I would take
Speaker 3: the side first.
Speaker 2: Okay, all right, I'm staying away from the side, And
Speaker 2: again I want to make it clear I'm not against
Speaker 2: you in this one. We'll get to one where I'm
Speaker 2: against you, Pat, but I'm not against you on this one.
Speaker 1: And you know it's got to be. I've got to
Speaker 1: feel really.
Speaker 2: Strong if I'm going to back the Jets, and I
Speaker 2: certainly don't hear so you know if actually I don't
Speaker 2: even have a if I had to go way, I
Speaker 2: would go this way. If I had to go one way,
Speaker 2: I would you root for the asteroid and jump out
Speaker 2: the window and do something else. I'm gonna start with
Speaker 2: the total, Pat, And then I was thinking maybe I'll
Speaker 2: start with the game that I know we're on different sides.
Speaker 2: I'll start with the total, though, since we talked about
Speaker 2: a low total, I will give an equally low total
Speaker 2: here the Panthers and the Falcons, Pat and I'm going
Speaker 2: under forty two and a half. Carolina fired Joe Brady
Speaker 2: and the stated reason was he doesn't run enough, Like
Speaker 2: he is not running the ball enough. So I don't
Speaker 2: know what the over under is on rush attempts here
Speaker 2: between Cam and Chuba Hubbard and you want to get
Speaker 2: a mirror of Dullah involved in there, but it's got
Speaker 2: to be like thirty five or something like that. Like
Speaker 2: they're just gonna run the ball the entire time, is
Speaker 2: what I guess, especially Pat after we saw Cam, who's
Speaker 2: going to start in this game. I know he's not confirmed,
Speaker 2: but he's gonna start. Go five for twenty one in
Speaker 2: their most recent game. Like the passing game isn't really working,
Speaker 2: so I don't expect them to attempt too many passes.
Speaker 2: And again, a lot of running attempts that bleeds the clock.
Speaker 2: That's kind of what we're saying here with this Jets game.
Speaker 2: And the Falcons are bad defend for sure. Uh there's
Speaker 2: the dog areas. Don't worry about it. Pat, you're very
Speaker 2: concerned about the dog barking. I promise you it's not
Speaker 2: a big deal.
Speaker 1: Whatever. I will not let my crazy man in. But anyway, I.
Speaker 2: Don't worry about it because I do know you are
Speaker 2: concerned about the dog barking, So don't worry about.
Speaker 1: What's her anyway.
Speaker 2: So the Falcons are bad defensively, but they are worse
Speaker 2: against the pass than they are against the run. Like
Speaker 2: that's just the way it is, and I think that's
Speaker 2: part of why they get beaten so badly.
Speaker 1: So I think with running it.
Speaker 2: Like the scoring, I don't think that the Panthers will
Speaker 2: be able to just run down the field every single
Speaker 2: drive and score necessarily, especially without Christian McCaffrey. But I
Speaker 2: do think that they'll have long, sustained drives and that'll
Speaker 2: bleed the clock a little bit. And on defense, the
Speaker 2: Panthers get a lot of pressure that is bad for
Speaker 2: Matt Ryan. You've got probably gilmour can just stick on
Speaker 2: Kyle Pitts and take him out of the game, like
Speaker 2: pretty much every team has been doing of late, and
Speaker 2: then they focus everything else. I just getting pressure on
Speaker 2: Matt Ryan and taking away Cordero Patterson and then the
Speaker 2: Falcons are out of luck on offense. Ryan was not
Speaker 2: great against them in the first game. Now you're on
Speaker 2: the road in a second division game, which I feel
Speaker 2: like the teams know each other already at this point.
Speaker 2: They usually feels like it leads itself to a little
Speaker 2: you know, scoring loll Here again, they're both five and seven, Like,
Speaker 2: realistically they're both out of the playoff hunt, but they're
Speaker 2: also still in the playoff hunt. Carolina needs a win
Speaker 2: and they're all in right. I mean, they went for
Speaker 2: Gilmour like they went for it this year even if
Speaker 2: they shouldn't have, so they need to win here. I
Speaker 2: think the defense plays really well, holds Atlanta down, and
Speaker 2: I think with all the running that this is going
Speaker 2: to be like a really low scoring game here. It
Speaker 2: strikes me as like a like a twenty thirteen type
Speaker 2: of game here, So I will go the under even
Speaker 2: though it's low here at forty two and a half.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm probably going to piggyback you on that one.
Speaker 4: We saw the first game Carolina one, nineteen thirteen when
Speaker 4: they met earlier. We have not seen any appreciable improvements
Speaker 4: in either offense since then. I hate everything about the
Speaker 4: Falcons offense except Cordero Patterson pretty much. You know, we
Speaker 4: have talked about this on our Sunday Recap pod, where
Speaker 4: we have seen instances where Matt Ryan drops back to pass,
Speaker 4: gets like four seconds of protection, scans the field, still
Speaker 4: cannot find an open receiver and like eventually takes a sack.
Speaker 4: So yeah, like Cam is just like, we've got some
Speaker 4: really bad passers playing quarterback in the NFL this week.
Speaker 3: I got some really.
Speaker 4: Non functional passing games, and I think we're looking at
Speaker 4: one with Carolina too. So as you said, it's probably
Speaker 4: going to be a thirty five running rushing attempt game
Speaker 4: for Carolina that's going to speed up the game. This
Speaker 4: is one of those that could be over at like
Speaker 4: two fifty five Central time.
Speaker 1: I think, yes, So.
Speaker 4: I'm with you here. I think this one plays under.
Speaker 4: I was kind of surprised to see it as high
Speaker 4: as it was.
Speaker 1: What game ends first, Pat Saint Chetz or Falcons father.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's boy.
Speaker 4: That is going to be a sprint to two sprinters
Speaker 4: going at it like Ussein Bolts trying to get under
Speaker 4: the four pm Eastern wire.
Speaker 1: I want.
Speaker 2: I want our books to start making. That is something
Speaker 2: we can bet on which game end ends.
Speaker 3: First, fun weekly prop, wouldn't it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like we'll start our own sports book. We'll get
Speaker 2: that going, all right, So that's my first pick.
Speaker 1: Go for number two. Whatever you want.
Speaker 4: What do you got since we're on the Undersdan, how
Speaker 4: about Jacksonville Tennessee under forty three and a half. I
Speaker 4: mean Jacksonville has scored ten point seven points a game
Speaker 4: in their last six just a completely dysfunctional passing game.
Speaker 3: We know that.
Speaker 4: And now the running game. You know, Urban Meyer choosing
Speaker 4: to punish James Robinson for you know, a fumble where
Speaker 4: he's slammed to the ground by Aaron Donald and then
Speaker 4: like Carlos side lose is a much worse fumble. I
Speaker 4: think it was like four series or three series after
Speaker 4: that fumble that James Robinson didn't play and Hide has
Speaker 4: a softer fumble and then plays the very next series.
Speaker 3: But never mind that.
Speaker 4: So we know the Jacksonville offense is gonna struggle to
Speaker 4: put up like even seventeen points, and the Tennessee offense,
Speaker 4: since Dereck Henry got hurt. They that surprisingly good performance
Speaker 4: against the Rams where they won twenty eight to sixteen,
Speaker 4: then twenty three to twenty one against the Saints, but
Speaker 4: since then they lost what twenty two to thirteen to
Speaker 4: Houston and last week thirty six or two weeks ago
Speaker 4: thirty six thirteen to New England. You know, tougher matchup,
Speaker 4: but we still don't know if Julio Jones is going
Speaker 4: to play, and this is a barely functional passing game.
Speaker 4: Even if he does play, I think we've got the
Speaker 4: amalgam of running backs they have, like it's it's not
Speaker 4: an offense.
Speaker 3: To be feared.
Speaker 4: I'm not too worried about like the Titan Titans putting
Speaker 4: up thirty in this game to push it over single handedly.
Speaker 4: So I mean, I think you get a real good
Speaker 4: percentage play with the under here. Not saying it's foolproof,
Speaker 4: but you know, I feel like you're seventy percent this
Speaker 4: plays under.
Speaker 2: Certainly none of the bets that anybody gives out as
Speaker 2: full proof, But yes, I agree with you here because
Speaker 2: I do think that certainly the Titans offense since all
Speaker 2: the injuries, has been pretty stagnant and understandably so, it's
Speaker 2: never been an explosive offense. You've just had the best
Speaker 2: running back you know playing in the game right now,
Speaker 2: dominating and that allowing you know, Ryan Tannehill to be
Speaker 2: the most efficient quarterback in the NFL. So with this,
Speaker 2: even if Julio Jones plays, like, this is not a
Speaker 2: Titans team that is going to basically go out there
Speaker 2: and put up a million points unless I get some
Speaker 2: sort of defensive score, because that's just not what they
Speaker 2: want to do, especially in the game that they are
Speaker 2: favored to win by eight and a half or nine
Speaker 2: depending on the book. That they don't need to push it,
Speaker 2: they don't need to take chances. And you mentioned, you know,
Speaker 2: the game against the Rams, there's a defensive score, like
Speaker 2: their points come from defense, right, It's not like their
Speaker 2: offense has ever lit it up since they've had all
Speaker 2: the injuries. And Julio Jones, like if he plays, if
Speaker 2: he doesn't play, I love Julio Jones, pat, but it's
Speaker 2: not like AJ Brown isn't there, and even when he was,
Speaker 2: it's not like they were really doing all that much anyway.
Speaker 1: So I am with you here. I think both teams
Speaker 1: struggled to score.
Speaker 2: So man, unders huh, that's what we're doing in this
Speaker 2: game in this podcast, right, now, huh can make one other.
Speaker 4: Just the Tennessee's run defense is really good. And if
Speaker 4: you're forcing Jacksonville to be one dimensional and lean on
Speaker 4: the pass, right, boy, I mean, that's going to damage
Speaker 4: their chances. And uh, you know, the Jacksonville defense is
Speaker 4: not a complete pushover either.
Speaker 1: Correct.
Speaker 2: That was actually the next one I want to make,
Speaker 2: which is I think we think of the Jacksonville because
Speaker 2: I think sometimes you think of teams being terrible and
Speaker 2: you assume that every part of the team is terrible,
Speaker 2: and the overall defense for Jacksonville is not. And so
Speaker 2: that's going to probably lend itself to a game that's
Speaker 2: going to be relatively low scoring. So I really hadn't
Speaker 2: even thought about this one very much, Pat until you
Speaker 2: brought it up.
Speaker 1: But I do like it.
Speaker 2: Now I'll try it on it. But let look, I
Speaker 2: have two picks left. Okay, one of them I feel
Speaker 2: a little less confident in, and I've sort of been
Speaker 2: debating when I was thinking about the third pick. One
Speaker 2: of them I like a lot, and it is the
Speaker 2: one Pat, which we are on opposite side. So we
Speaker 2: talked about I kept waiting for you to bring it up.
Speaker 2: You were waiting for me to bring it up. I'll
Speaker 2: start then, and it is the forty nine ers that
Speaker 2: are visiting the Bengals, And right now the forty nine
Speaker 2: ers are laying a point. When I looked at it
Speaker 2: with Joe and I said, I loved it. Then it
Speaker 2: was the forty nine ers getting a point. So there's
Speaker 2: probably been a little money. Not that it doesn't matter
Speaker 2: to me, like giving a point, getting a point really
Speaker 2: doesn't matter if you cross hear at that point. But
Speaker 2: I do like the forty nine ers. You'll be on
Speaker 2: the other side for one of your picks. And we
Speaker 2: talked about that whether or not that made sense, and
Speaker 2: I said, you and I are known to agree on
Speaker 2: many things.
Speaker 1: Let's disagree.
Speaker 2: I'll make my case first, Pat, that's good with you,
Speaker 2: and then you can counter.
Speaker 1: Good, absolutely wonderful, all right. So this is the one
Speaker 1: I really do like right now.
Speaker 2: And I know there are some people out there who
Speaker 2: like to fade me, which is great, And in this
Speaker 2: case you've got an extra reason because you've got Pat
Speaker 2: going on the other side. So I continue to fade
Speaker 2: the Bengals Pat generally as the team I think they've
Speaker 2: been overrated. That does not always work out. It does
Speaker 2: sometimes like last week with the Chargers. Certainly the forty
Speaker 2: nine Ers are a better team crew you know, not
Speaker 2: a crude metric, but the most basic metric, again is
Speaker 2: just total DVOA. The forty nine Ers are seventh, the
Speaker 2: Bengals are nineteen. The forty nine Ers are a better
Speaker 2: team than the Cincinnati Bengals. I have no doubt that
Speaker 2: you look away to DVA that's more recent games, the
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers are actually fifth and the Bengals are twentieth.
Speaker 2: Since the forty nine Ers basically stopped with the they
Speaker 2: haven't had the opportunity really with because of Trey Lance's injury.
Speaker 2: But since they stopped the gimmicky stuff with giving Trey
Speaker 2: Lance and splinting bots and Kyle Shannon came out and
Speaker 2: talked about how that wasn't really working for them, the
Speaker 2: offense has just been a lot better. They've got a
Speaker 2: really good offensive line, They've got an incredible blocking tight
Speaker 2: end in George Kittle. They're EPA offensively. The forty nine
Speaker 2: Ers are ninth and the Bengals are twentieth and EPA
Speaker 2: per play. Since Week ten, the forty nine Ers are fourth,
Speaker 2: so they're really rolling here. Offensively. Both teams have injuries here,
Speaker 2: Pat like, we can't discount that on either side. But
Speaker 2: I actually think that the angles injuries are more significant
Speaker 2: right now than the forty nine ers, and that is
Speaker 2: one of the reasons why I lean this way. So
Speaker 2: Deevo Samuel Patt, I'm thinking, honestly he might. Then there's
Speaker 2: optimism from Kyle Shannan. I'm expecting Devo to not play
Speaker 2: in this game. I would love it if Elijah Mitchell
Speaker 2: is able to suit up. I will be fine with
Speaker 2: this even if Elijah Mitchell does not suit up, whether
Speaker 2: or not it's Jamichael Hasty or Jeff Wilson's able to
Speaker 2: come back. We know Emmanuel Moseley's already out in that secondary.
Speaker 2: Fred Warner though, is back and practicing in full.
Speaker 1: That's big.
Speaker 2: But the injuries for the Bengals Pat the finger injury
Speaker 2: for Burrow, and really that's kind of like the critical
Speaker 2: point for me, Like that was an ugly injury. He
Speaker 2: did not look good throwing the ball after that.
Speaker 1: We have seen what these finger injuries do.
Speaker 2: I know it's the pinky, so it's a little different
Speaker 2: than Wilson, but we've seen what these finger injuries do.
Speaker 2: It's not as if like he's out there in practice
Speaker 2: like I'm totally fine.
Speaker 1: I'm totally fine.
Speaker 2: He's like I can play through it and stuff like that.
Speaker 2: So I think that is going to affect the way
Speaker 2: the Bengals are offensively. Not to mention T Higgins dealing
Speaker 2: with an ankle injury, which happened at the very end
Speaker 2: of that game. I didn't really realize it, but he
Speaker 2: hasn't practic yet, and defensively two pat for the Bengals.
Speaker 2: You know, a Woozia he might be out in this game.
Speaker 2: That's a big loss for them. He might play, but
Speaker 2: we already know Logan Wilson is out. That's a big loss.
Speaker 2: They are coming east, Pat, and I know I never
Speaker 2: love West Coast teams coming east, but the four to
Speaker 2: twenty five game makes it a little more palatable to
Speaker 2: me because it doesn't mess with their internal clocks. I
Speaker 2: think the forty nine ers win this game, Pat, and
Speaker 2: you know, the injury, especially the Burrow, makes me feel
Speaker 2: even better about it.
Speaker 1: That is my case. That is why one of my.
Speaker 2: Picks is San Francisco giving one now to the Bengals
Speaker 2: in Cincinnati.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so initially this started as San Francisco with a
Speaker 4: one point correct.
Speaker 2: They were, they were getting a point correct, they were
Speaker 2: getting a point. Now they're a one point favorite.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so wait, I'm sorry. Who was initially the favorite?
Speaker 2: The Bengals were initially the favorite. It is now enough
Speaker 2: to San Francisco being the favorite. San Francisco I assume,
Speaker 2: I really, I I have to believe Pat, that that's
Speaker 2: that's injury related.
Speaker 1: I have to believe it because I.
Speaker 2: Think Burrow's comments not that he's gonna play. Burrow's tough guy.
Speaker 1: We've seen it. He's gonna play.
Speaker 2: But I think his comments have been less than like,
Speaker 2: oh man, I'm good, let's go.
Speaker 1: I feel great. It's more like I'm gonna be I'm
Speaker 1: gonna manage it, I'm gonna play through it.
Speaker 2: And I'm like, my guess is that's why the money
Speaker 2: came in. But again, to me, Pat, it doesn't really
Speaker 2: matter one on on either side. Crossing zero doesn't matter
Speaker 2: that much to me, but go ahead.
Speaker 1: Sorry.
Speaker 4: No, he has said that it hurts like hell, and
Speaker 4: he saw him like those those practice throws on the
Speaker 4: sideline where he was just like an excruciating pain. So yeah,
Speaker 4: that is Admittedly, that is a big wild card that
Speaker 4: I maybe.
Speaker 3: I am not accounting for enough.
Speaker 4: You know, we've seen this, this Bengals team drill some
Speaker 4: of their divisional rivals and not bad teams either, but
Speaker 4: they have been schizophrenic. Yes, that game against the Chargers
Speaker 4: last week a really tough loss for them, but they
Speaker 4: fought pretty hard to stay in a game that was looking.
Speaker 3: Like it was going to be a blowout.
Speaker 4: I just think this is a good enough team to
Speaker 4: do something about a bad home loss and bounce back
Speaker 4: against a team coming east, Yes, the West Coast coming
Speaker 4: into the Eastern time thing. I'd feel much stronger about that,
Speaker 4: of course, if it was an early start.
Speaker 3: Although that old betting.
Speaker 4: Axiom has not exactly, you know, been one hundred percent
Speaker 4: by any means this year. But you know, I do
Speaker 4: like the good team coming off a bad loss. That
Speaker 4: that's kind of one thing I'm leaning on here. And
Speaker 4: I don't think the Bengals are going to lose too
Speaker 4: straight at home to West Coast teams. So and I
Speaker 4: think they've got the better quarterback here Dan, Like I mean,
Speaker 4: even if Burrow is completely incapacitated and we see him
Speaker 4: sailing throws, like, I'll pay my money and know that
Speaker 4: I made the wrong bats, but you know, Jimmy makes
Speaker 4: like two or three just like bad mistakes every game.
Speaker 3: I don't think he's a terrible quarterback.
Speaker 4: But like he's going to give you some turnover opportunities
Speaker 4: like every game. It happens every game, and I feel
Speaker 4: like if the Bengals can capitalize on that get a
Speaker 4: turnover to I really like their chances here.
Speaker 2: So I think the only thing I'll say is the
Speaker 2: good team coming off a bad loss goes both ways, right,
Speaker 2: because the forty nine ers right coming off that loss,
Speaker 2: I mean that honestly, neutral field, everyone healthy, who's the
Speaker 2: better team?
Speaker 1: Do you think in your mind forty nine Ers are
Speaker 1: the Bengals?
Speaker 3: I mean, to me, it's still really close.
Speaker 4: Dan, Like, I have a greater belief in this Bengals
Speaker 4: team maybe than I should, But you know, I like
Speaker 4: there was a point early in the season where I
Speaker 4: thought they could be a legitimate AFC Championship contender. I'm
Speaker 4: not sure if I still believe that now, like they've
Speaker 4: there have been some some leaks exposed, I think, but
Speaker 4: I still think it's a pretty good team.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I mean again, and there's you know, for me,
Speaker 2: it's been personally something where I have just been avoiding them,
Speaker 2: and again it has not always worked out.
Speaker 1: I faded them and they have romped at times.
Speaker 2: But I do think that especially with the injuries, I
Speaker 2: liked it before, Pat, I love it really now.
Speaker 1: Like even if Burrow's like, I'm good.
Speaker 2: And he looks gonna warm up, I mean, you know,
Speaker 2: he takes a hit or something on the hand a
Speaker 2: little bit like just makes me too worried with it.
Speaker 1: But this is good.
Speaker 2: I think it's good that we're on different sides, and
Speaker 2: I know we'll have six bets, but it'll be different.
Speaker 2: And the one thing I will say to our audience,
Speaker 2: by the way, is because Pat and I talk all
Speaker 2: the time, obviously.
Speaker 1: We feel when we get a pick wrong.
Speaker 2: Like we were taxing Pat on Thanksgiving because you were
Speaker 2: on before Thanksgiving and you had the total four the
Speaker 2: Dallas uh Las Vegas game wrong and you were upset
Speaker 2: and you thought you had gotten the Detroit Chicago game
Speaker 2: wrong because you would bet the money line yourself on
Speaker 2: a personal play, but you had actually taken Detroit with
Speaker 2: the spread. But I remember how bad you felt about it,
Speaker 2: and I always feel the.
Speaker 1: Same way too.
Speaker 2: I hope everybody understands that, like when we give out picks,
Speaker 2: like we want you guys to.
Speaker 1: Be able to be profitable. So I thinks, so one
Speaker 1: of us.
Speaker 2: Pat is going to be really good at you know,
Speaker 2: right before we do our fantasy show on the recap,
Speaker 2: one of us is going to be in a bad mood.
Speaker 4: So oh yeah, there's not going to be any trash
Speaker 4: talking about that whatsoever.
Speaker 1: We'll be fine.
Speaker 4: Can I add one more thing about that game, just
Speaker 4: one less points to make. I mean with the unit
Speaker 4: versus unit matchups. One I forgot the pinpoint was just
Speaker 4: the Bengals receivers against this forty nine or secondary. Yeah,
Speaker 4: if the forty nine ers have a glaring achilles heel,
Speaker 4: it is their secondary. And just you know that they
Speaker 4: don't have very many capable cornerbacks. And you know, if
Speaker 4: we get a healthy enough t Higgins, the Bengals can
Speaker 4: deploy three very good wide receivers against a pretty terrible
Speaker 4: group of cornerbacks.
Speaker 3: But you know, again that all comes back.
Speaker 4: To Burrow's ability to deliver tight FROs and you know
Speaker 4: overcome that finger injury. So yes, yeah, that is the
Speaker 4: Burrow finger could definitely torpedo this one for me and
Speaker 4: you know, have you grinning ear to hear on Sunday
Speaker 4: night day?
Speaker 2: It's very rare, Pat, but I'm a happy man on
Speaker 2: Sunday night. But let's hope for this time, and I
Speaker 2: certainly will not rub it in as I hope you
Speaker 2: don't if you are correct as well. My last pick, Pat,
Speaker 2: I don't know how you're gonna feel about this one,
Speaker 2: and I've kind of agonized that it because this is
Speaker 2: one Pat where I had an initial instinct when I
Speaker 2: saw the line and I talked about it on Monday,
Speaker 2: and then as I dug into it, I didn't feel
Speaker 2: quite as great about it. But I don't love that
Speaker 2: many games this week, So I'm gonna stick with my
Speaker 2: initial instinct here and I am going to take the
Speaker 2: Ravens visit in Cleveland and right now getting two and
Speaker 2: a half. But the one thing I will say is
Speaker 2: there is there are threes out there, and my book
Speaker 2: at Drackings, for example, is that a three. So I
Speaker 2: would not bet this right now if you are a
Speaker 2: Ravens backer like I am, and if the and if
Speaker 2: the consensus moves to three, that's going to be my
Speaker 2: official play.
Speaker 1: And if it moves down That'll be my.
Speaker 2: Official play wherever it closes closer on Saturday night, because
Speaker 2: I do think that this might get to three here,
Speaker 2: because I think there are a lot of things a
Speaker 2: favorite Cleveland, like they're off a bye, the Ravens are
Speaker 2: absolutely decimated by injury, of course.
Speaker 1: I mean, that's that's why Harbaugh said that they.
Speaker 2: Went for two, because they didn't have anybody who could
Speaker 2: stop the pass anymore. They are coming off of a
Speaker 2: brutal game here. Lamar Jackson has not looked good, and
Speaker 2: I don't I don't ever remember this, pat. I don't
Speaker 2: remember that often where you get a team that plays
Speaker 2: an opposing team, then gets a bye, then plays that
Speaker 2: same team like we've got here with Cleveland, where it's
Speaker 2: basically you've had three weeks to dedicate yourself to Baltimore.
Speaker 2: That's tough for Baltimore for sure, because this is all
Speaker 2: they've had in their head. But I just have no
Speaker 2: faith in Cleveland right now. And I think Baker Mayfield,
Speaker 2: this is a week off does not cure Baker Mayfield.
Speaker 2: Right Like Mayfield, you seem every game pad he looks
Speaker 2: like he's about to just basically walk off. And the
Speaker 2: injuries to the Ravens, especially in their quarterback. We lost
Speaker 2: Marlon Humphrey. That's not that big a deal necessarily with
Speaker 2: a team like Cleveland who doesn't really have that wide
Speaker 2: receiver that threatens you right now, right I mean Donovan
Speaker 2: People's Jonans, Travis Landry and the guy who's gonna, you know,
Speaker 2: go deep. He'll get his catches like he did in
Speaker 2: the first game, but still not a guy who really
Speaker 2: threatens you. They want to run the ball. That's all
Speaker 2: they really want to do. That's the Ravens strength. Their
Speaker 2: fifth in defensive DVOA against the run. The Ravens are
Speaker 2: well coached, as we know. I think Harbaugh will be
Speaker 2: able to sort of get them through. They sort of
Speaker 2: match up well in what they do. Like the Ravens
Speaker 2: red zone defense is really good. Cleveland's red zone offense
Speaker 2: kind of stinks, and I know that the offense has
Speaker 2: really been struggling badly. And Lamar Jackson doesn't look good,
Speaker 2: but I'm hoping this is a little bit of the
Speaker 2: illness that he's been dealing with, and as he gets
Speaker 2: further apart away from that, he'll look back closer to
Speaker 2: what he looked like earlier in the season and Cleveland
Speaker 2: plays a lot of his own that usually you know,
Speaker 2: plays into what Lamar strings are. So again, it's a
Speaker 2: divisional games, it's usually close, especially with the second one.
Speaker 2: They just played a game where Lamar Jackson threw four
Speaker 2: picks and the Ravens still won the game. Like, I
Speaker 2: don't know, man, I think the Ravens are coming out
Speaker 2: of here with a win that they need despite how
Speaker 2: banged up they are.
Speaker 1: I think they're just a better team.
Speaker 2: But I am interested to hear your thoughts because it
Speaker 2: is one where I've debated kind of all week.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is one I'm probably not gonna be touching.
Speaker 4: And we've talked about my strange pool to bet the
Speaker 4: Ravens in every single week and play it out as
Speaker 4: a league. And I'm on a two game winning streak
Speaker 4: to get back to six and six, all right, I
Speaker 4: tentatively have taken the Browns in this just because.
Speaker 3: And the angle that I hooked onto was.
Speaker 4: The weird scheduling quirk that the Browns have just stewed
Speaker 4: on this game during their bye week and you know,
Speaker 4: had all this extra time to watch film, and you know,
Speaker 4: it's a pretty competent coaching staff.
Speaker 3: I think on the Cleveland side.
Speaker 4: So you mentioned the Marlin Humphrey injury again, I think
Speaker 4: this is like one of the few teams that's not
Speaker 4: going to be able to really capitalize on that very much.
Speaker 4: Just not a strong group of receivers, not a good quarterback. Yeah,
Speaker 4: Ravens under twenty points in three straights, the Browns thirty
Speaker 4: total points in their last three. This just could be
Speaker 4: an absolute rock fight. And you know, I think the
Speaker 4: reason I'm going to be laying off in a game that,
Speaker 4: you know, could be this low scoring and weird, Like,
Speaker 4: I just think some sort of weird play a turnover,
Speaker 4: a fumble return for a touchdown could like totally swing it.
Speaker 4: A special teams play, you know. I just like, I'm
Speaker 4: not going to feel good about whichever side I take
Speaker 4: in this one, So I'm kind of just staying away.
Speaker 2: Maybe we should have made this another underplay for us
Speaker 2: here at forty three given the offensive struggles, Right, maybe
Speaker 2: you go.
Speaker 3: Forty I saw forty four on DraftKings this morning.
Speaker 2: All right, hold on, I'm checking it out. No draftings
Speaker 2: down to forty three.
Speaker 3: It is done forty three, as is.
Speaker 2: A pretty much every book. Actually, there's a lot of
Speaker 2: forty two's and there's forty two and a half's out there.
Speaker 2: So if you want the under go now, I guess
Speaker 2: get it.
Speaker 3: I can understand why it's dropping.
Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, everybody listens to you, Pat, So that's right. Yeah,
Speaker 2: it's going to continue to drop. I don't hate the
Speaker 2: under in that one too, but I just don't know
Speaker 2: how many unders I can stomach in one week of football.
Speaker 2: So all right, So that's going to be our six plays,
Speaker 2: and you know it's technically five because it really depends
Speaker 2: on which way you want to go here on that
Speaker 2: Bengals forty nine Ers game. But Pat, you are taking
Speaker 2: the Jaguars and the Titans under forty three and a half,
Speaker 2: the Jets getting five and a half from the Saints,
Speaker 2: and the Bengals getting one from the forty nine ers.
Speaker 2: I'm on the other side of that one. I'm getting
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers laying one point to the Bengals,
Speaker 2: the Panthers and the Falcons under forty two and a half,
Speaker 2: and the Ravens getting two and a half from the Browns.
Speaker 2: Let's quickly run through the remaining spreads pack if that
Speaker 2: works for you, Yes, sir, start with tonight. Everybody's gonna
Speaker 2: know already, So you're either gonna have a ton of
Speaker 2: credibility or everybody's gonna be like, I'm fading whatever that
Speaker 2: dude is doing. It's now the consensus line pad other
Speaker 2: than our book of DraftKings, which is still at three.
Speaker 2: The consensus line is now three and a half here
Speaker 2: with the Vikings laying three and a half points in
Speaker 2: this game.
Speaker 4: I'm not sure which I like more getting that hook
Speaker 4: on the field goal or getting even money to get
Speaker 4: points with the Steelers against Kirk Cousins in a primetime game.
Speaker 4: I've already read the script for how this game turns out.
Speaker 4: Dan Kirk Cousins doesn't play well and the Vikings lose.
Speaker 1: So what, yes, exactly?
Speaker 4: I mean, like Kirk, He's played so consistently poorly in
Speaker 4: primetime games, and like it is in the point at
Speaker 4: the point where I think that is a thing. You
Speaker 4: just wonder if as many tight games as the Vikings
Speaker 4: have played, like if they didn't hit the tipping point
Speaker 4: with the loss to Detroit, if they aren't just ready
Speaker 4: to pack it in, and you know, in a game
Speaker 4: where some of the coaching was just you know, I know,
Speaker 4: my friends up in Minnesota were totally up in arms
Speaker 4: over just some of the play.
Speaker 3: Calling last week.
Speaker 4: So and we've talked about the Steelers in desperation mode,
Speaker 4: how that is normally a pretty good time to get them. Yes,
Speaker 4: they did sort of stave off elimination last week. You know,
Speaker 4: maybe that was their desperation mode game. Can they have
Speaker 4: two of the desperation mode games in a row. But
Speaker 4: this one is a big one for them, Like they
Speaker 4: need this one too, And I you know, kind of
Speaker 4: like them getting the points here against just you know,
Speaker 4: squirrely Minnesota team with the Cousins factor and Cousins without
Speaker 4: his Adam Feelin's security blanket.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a big thing.
Speaker 3: That's a big thing.
Speaker 2: Now, Dalvin Cook made play apparently as we were talking
Speaker 2: about earlier, which is surprising to me. But I can't
Speaker 2: imagine he's going to be at one hundred percent if
Speaker 2: he does go at this point.
Speaker 3: I think that doesn't really move the needle for you,
Speaker 3: does it?
Speaker 2: No, not at all, And because Alexander Madison's are perfectly
Speaker 2: capable back anyway. And I wouldn't expect Alvin Cook to
Speaker 2: be at full strength regardless of if he plays. I
Speaker 2: have not I full disc like I've not bet a
Speaker 2: side on this. I do have a prop bet on
Speaker 2: kJ Osbourne over forty one and a half receiving yards.
Speaker 1: But I think the loss of Deeling is big.
Speaker 2: Obviously ten of his twenty five touchdowns there, I mean,
Speaker 2: Cousins played well this year, twenty five touchdowns, three picks.
Speaker 2: Like I actually didn't even fully realize that until I
Speaker 2: was looking up that sid. I was like, Wow, that's fascinating.
Speaker 2: But we've seen the script and this is the normal
Speaker 2: spot where you would back the Steelers, which is the
Speaker 2: road underdog in a game they need to win with
Speaker 2: their backs against the wall. Mike Tomlin gets them up
Speaker 2: for those games. Man.
Speaker 1: But it's probably something I'll stay away from.
Speaker 2: But are you on officially the Steelers getting It's not
Speaker 2: gonna be one of your bets, Pat, don't worry, You're
Speaker 2: not laying it out.
Speaker 1: But Steelers getting three and a half from the Vikings?
Speaker 1: Are you betting that?
Speaker 4: I have put my own hard earned money on it already, Dan,
Speaker 4: And isn't it fun to know that? Right now listeners
Speaker 4: are laughing at us because Kirk Cousin through for three
Speaker 4: hundred yards and three touchdowns. Dalvin Cook ran for one
Speaker 4: hundred and fifty and another touchdown, and you know everyone's
Speaker 4: just calling us idiots right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fine. They do.
Speaker 2: They do that for me anyway, so we're all good.
Speaker 2: How about the Raiders visiting the Chiefs. This is one
Speaker 2: that I kind of like when I first looked at it.
Speaker 2: Pat on Monday, the Chiefs are laying nine and a
Speaker 2: half at home. What do you think.
Speaker 4: Generally, I've been disappointed when taking the Chiefs laying a
Speaker 4: lot of points. I'm starting to feel a little better
Speaker 4: about it. Not necessarily the offense, but their defense is
Speaker 4: very quietly held five straight opponents to seventeen or fewer points.
Speaker 4: Like the Chiefs defenses. You know, after being a laughing
Speaker 4: stock the first five or six weeks of the season,
Speaker 4: totally turn things around. The offense hasn't turned things around.
Speaker 4: I mean, they look terrible again against Denver last week.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 4: Las Vegas has scored sixteen points or fewer in four
Speaker 4: of their last five, the one exception being that thirty
Speaker 4: six point outburst against Dallas on Thanksgiving, and I just
Speaker 4: don't think they're going to be able to put up
Speaker 4: enough points against the Chiefs. And you figure the Chiefs
Speaker 4: have got a breakout at home one of these times.
Speaker 4: It just seems like they're kind of due for the explosion.
Speaker 4: They beat the Raiders forty one to fourteen the last
Speaker 4: time they played in Vegas, so I kind of do
Speaker 4: like the Chiefs here laying the big points.
Speaker 1: For me.
Speaker 2: I look more towards the total at this one, and
Speaker 2: I kind of feel like I liked it when it opened.
Speaker 2: I think it was forty nine or forty nine and
Speaker 2: a half. It sounds forty eight because I do think
Speaker 2: that the Chiefs have not gone crazy on offensive late.
Speaker 2: Their defense is, as you said, playing exceptionally well. The
Speaker 2: Raiders are not putting up a ton of points. The
Speaker 2: strikes a game the Chiefs probably win pretty easily, is
Speaker 2: my guest, although I'm not sure I'm willing to lay
Speaker 2: the nine and a half, but it strikes me as
Speaker 2: a game that's again something that is not a shootout
Speaker 2: or anything like that, and I think it leans towards
Speaker 2: the under at forty eight. I don't love it as
Speaker 2: much as I did it forty nine and a half,
Speaker 2: but I did take it there, so you know, it's
Speaker 2: probably mostly a stay away.
Speaker 1: From me at this point.
Speaker 2: But if anything, I leaned the under Titans. We talked
Speaker 2: about the total, Papa, what about the spread eight and
Speaker 2: a half now is higher when it opened here, but
Speaker 2: it's eight and a half now as we sit here.
Speaker 3: Will not touch this one.
Speaker 4: I just don't feel good enough about the Titans covering
Speaker 4: a big spread. Yeah, they're just they just haven't been
Speaker 4: quite good enough lately. I mean, if you forced me
Speaker 4: to play this one, I'd probably give the Jaguars the
Speaker 4: points and take the Titans.
Speaker 3: But yeah, I'm just laying.
Speaker 2: Off completely agree. If I had to go one way,
Speaker 2: I'd probably go to the Jaguars. But I don't want
Speaker 2: to touch it whatsoever, Nor do I want to really
Speaker 2: go near the Seahawks laying eight and a half to
Speaker 2: the Texans. I will say this bad and maybe this
Speaker 2: was done when a were seven and a half at open.
Speaker 2: I teased them down. I included them the teaser, and
Speaker 2: I tease them down to one and a half because
Speaker 2: I do think they're going to win this game any
Speaker 2: game where Again, we talked about all these teams are
Speaker 2: still in.
Speaker 1: The playoff hunt.
Speaker 2: You know, at four and eight they go to five
Speaker 2: and eight, who knows, you know, the Texans barely put
Speaker 2: up a fight anymore.
Speaker 1: I don't feel confident that they'll cover the eight and
Speaker 1: a half points spread, but I think they'll win.
Speaker 2: So I did tease them down when it was seven
Speaker 2: and a half to one and a half. But that's
Speaker 2: about the only lean I have on this game.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, the Seattle defense is not the joke
Speaker 4: that I thought it might be this season. They've actually
Speaker 4: been decent at times, and you know, I don't think
Speaker 4: the loss of Jamal Adams really hurts that much. So
Speaker 4: I tend to feel the same way like their past
Speaker 4: defense has been capable enough that I'm not too worried
Speaker 4: about Davis Mills right having any sort of uprising against them.
Speaker 4: You know, I do think they were going to win,
Speaker 4: but I just hate.
Speaker 3: That spread too much. I hate it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you can't take the Seattle on lay more than
Speaker 4: a touchdown.
Speaker 1: It's just no. Never can.
Speaker 2: How about the pat We talked about the Tuttle Panthers
Speaker 2: at home. They're laying the two and a half here
Speaker 2: to the Falcons. Now it's juice towards the Panthers. It's
Speaker 2: minus one eighteen. It's even at two and a half
Speaker 2: here for the Falcons if you take them getting the points.
Speaker 1: So what do you think?
Speaker 4: Yeah, kind of another game. I hate and don't like
Speaker 4: taking a side on this. I just don't know what
Speaker 4: to expect out of Cam Newton.
Speaker 3: This game is the main problem.
Speaker 4: If I was confident enough that he was going to
Speaker 4: be able to generate offense purely with his legs, I mean,
Speaker 4: he was just so bad passing the last time we
Speaker 4: saw him, Like it just scares me off the Panthers.
Speaker 4: Another game where it forced you, I would probably take Carolina,
Speaker 4: But I just don't really feel good about either side here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, did oh.
Speaker 2: I would definitely take Carolina if I'm forced to go
Speaker 2: one way or another, because again, I do see them
Speaker 2: just saying like, all right, we're just gonna run the
Speaker 2: ball NonStop. We're not going to allow Camp to hurt
Speaker 2: us and their defense being able to hold down the Falcons.
Speaker 2: So I lean the Panthers at under Afield goal. But
Speaker 2: I'm not putting my money on Cam Newton in that sense,
Speaker 2: other than I'm putting my money on Cam Newton to
Speaker 2: not be able to put up a ton of points.
Speaker 1: That's where I'm going with that.
Speaker 2: The Washington football team is getting now four and a half.
Speaker 1: It was four and open.
Speaker 2: It's still four to a couple of books, including at
Speaker 2: bet MGM. DraftKings for US pat is at four and
Speaker 2: a half. Here Washington hosting Dallas.
Speaker 4: So everything about this game wants like I almost wanted
Speaker 4: to put Washington as the best bat almost. They've rattled
Speaker 4: off four straight wins. One of them was against the Buccaneers,
Speaker 4: like the number one DVOA team at Carolina at Las Vegas.
Speaker 4: So a couple of decent road wins beat Seattle. This
Speaker 4: team's playing really well. But here's the thing that kind
Speaker 4: of worries me d In Like, I know Montes Sweat
Speaker 4: by the metrics, like hasn't been having the best of seasons.
Speaker 4: They've already lost Chase Young, one of their primary edge rush. Well,
Speaker 4: you know they've got the two book end edge rushes,
Speaker 4: Young and Montest Sweat together, that's a pretty good duo.
Speaker 4: They lost one, now they've gotten either. I mean this
Speaker 4: it reminds me of Monty Python and the Holy Grail.
Speaker 4: You know when King Arthur meets the Black Knight and
Speaker 4: turns to cross across the bridge and they have the
Speaker 4: sword fight, Like he cuts off one of the Black Knights.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Black Knight.
Speaker 4: Just keeps fighting with the sword hand, you know, but
Speaker 4: now they've cut off the other arm Montes Sweat is
Speaker 4: the second arm YEP.
Speaker 3: And if you can't get a pass rush, like I
Speaker 3: know that.
Speaker 4: The Washington has been very good at generating pressure from
Speaker 4: the inside, but without any pressure from the outside, and
Speaker 4: this Dallas team, Dak Prescott and these receivers being able
Speaker 4: to pick away at a very vulnerable football team secondary, Like,
Speaker 4: I just don't feel good enough about Washington's ability to
Speaker 4: play decent enough defense to cover this spread. So I'm
Speaker 4: laying off it. I mean, I really want to take
Speaker 4: the football team here, Dan, but I just can't.
Speaker 2: I'm in total agreement with basically everything that you said,
Speaker 2: which is, I look at this, I think Joe like
Speaker 2: the Cowboys.
Speaker 1: When we looked at it early.
Speaker 2: Everything says to me that Washington keeps this game close.
Speaker 2: They're playing really well, but at some point, at some point,
Speaker 2: like they're just not going to be able to lose
Speaker 2: Chase Young and Sweat and continue to basically put up
Speaker 2: these defensive performances. I don't know how their defense has
Speaker 2: been playing so well, so it's a stay. I'm still
Speaker 2: not taking Dallas like you right, it's just to stay
Speaker 2: away for me at this point.
Speaker 3: Is this one of the rare overs we might look
Speaker 3: at Dan?
Speaker 1: What do you have? The total?
Speaker 3: Forty eight?
Speaker 4: So, I mean, I love that Washington has found this
Speaker 4: new offensive identity when yeah, Tonio Gibson coming back to
Speaker 4: life and you know that making Taylor Heineke potentially more effective.
Speaker 4: And now they've Curtis Samuel back. He's been playing limited snaps,
Speaker 4: but it's another day jewish weapon who can rip off
Speaker 4: a chunk play possibly if they get the ball.
Speaker 3: In his hands. So I kind of like the over
Speaker 3: here at forty eight.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm staying away from that.
Speaker 2: I your points make sense, but I Washington seems like
Speaker 2: a team that is committed to taking two minutes to
Speaker 2: get every first down and getting you know, six first
Speaker 2: downs every drive in these like we're gonna gain twelve
Speaker 2: yards every single like like that's just what we're gonna
Speaker 2: do and just we're gonna keep it going. So I
Speaker 2: don't lean under, but I'm not willing to go for
Speaker 2: my first over of the week that with that one.
Speaker 2: But you you take it, you'd be brave for me.
Speaker 2: Broncos are at home link ten to the Lions. I
Speaker 2: feel like this might have been eight and a half
Speaker 2: earlier in the week of Memory Serves, and I kind
Speaker 2: of like the Broncos there. I don't want to fait
Speaker 2: the Lions again, but it's certainly if there's a letdown
Speaker 2: spot for a one ten and one team, this would
Speaker 2: be it and the Broncos fighting for their lives at home.
Speaker 2: But at ten, it just it seems a little too
Speaker 2: rich for me to go either way.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Teddy Bridgewater has just looked so shaky lately, even
Speaker 4: though there's some maybe get right spots for him in
Speaker 4: this matchup. Like I know, Detroit's had all sorts of
Speaker 4: trouble with slot receivers, and I think Jerry Judy could
Speaker 4: feast in this matchup.
Speaker 3: If Javonte Williams gets more work.
Speaker 4: I mean, we saw what he did to Kansas City,
Speaker 4: and you know against Detroit that's had a lot of
Speaker 4: problems with running backs. And yes, maybe Detroit is fat
Speaker 4: and happy Dan after that first loss.
Speaker 3: There was one ten in one.
Speaker 2: Now you know, who.
Speaker 4: Could blame them for being fat and happy? But ten
Speaker 4: points for this Denver team is just too much. There's
Speaker 4: just not been enough Denver offense for us to feel
Speaker 4: good about.
Speaker 2: That, I agree with you, Chargers are at home laying
Speaker 2: ten against the Giants sounds like Mike Lennon. There's optimism
Speaker 2: about Mike Glennon being able to clear congussion protocol and
Speaker 2: not try that really matters to you, Pat, But ten
Speaker 2: points here with.
Speaker 4: The charters, Yeah, I mean Mike Glennon or Jake from
Speaker 4: is really a drop off there.
Speaker 3: Ye.
Speaker 4: You know, this was one I actually considered as a
Speaker 4: best bet for the Chargers, and I might have done
Speaker 4: it if not for the COVID status of their wide receivers.
Speaker 4: And maybe it won't matter if Jalen Geiton and Josh
Speaker 4: Palmer are decent backup options, I guess, And you know
Speaker 4: they've got a trio of tight ends, and.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's possible Williams plays.
Speaker 3: Though it's Yeah. Has Alan been rolled out?
Speaker 1: He actually hasn't. He actually hasn't.
Speaker 2: But I think he tested positive, and I think it's
Speaker 2: almost not impossible entirely given the protocols. But I don't
Speaker 2: think anybody who has tested positive on the day that
Speaker 2: he tested positive has been able to make it back
Speaker 2: for that week's game yet.
Speaker 1: So he hasn't been rolled out.
Speaker 2: But Williams is just a close contact and so if
Speaker 2: he does test positive before game, he can be cleared
Speaker 2: in play for sure.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: So I think this Giants offense is just an absolute
Speaker 4: toxic way stumph with the quarterback situation, with the just
Speaker 4: awful offensive line. You know, I don't think Saquon Barkley
Speaker 4: can create an offense out of thin air by himself.
Speaker 4: The myriad injury problems at wide receiver, you know, and
Speaker 4: the Chargers have just been like, this has been a
Speaker 4: pretty tough team. There's been some slips, but overall, like
Speaker 4: this is a really good team, and I think Herbert
Speaker 4: can create offense even if he doesn't have his two receivers.
Speaker 4: The one thing that gives me pause here, Dan, is
Speaker 4: that the Giants defense doesn't suck right, like they might
Speaker 4: be able to turn this into like a seventeen to
Speaker 4: ten games. That's the one concern I have. But I'm
Speaker 4: still probably going to take the Chargers for a you know,
Speaker 4: one unit bets at minus ten.
Speaker 2: How about the Bucks taking on the bills here. It
Speaker 2: wasn't three for a lot of the week, it's now
Speaker 2: three and a half in the consensus.
Speaker 4: I'm scared of this one, Dan, I like, I don't
Speaker 4: I could talk myself into over under box Bills, Like
Speaker 4: give me an angle I can sink my teeth into.
Speaker 3: I don't know what to make of this one. I'll
Speaker 3: be totally.
Speaker 2: Honest, totally stay away from me, absolutely, Like, if I'm
Speaker 2: forced to choose, I think with the Hook, I might
Speaker 2: take the Bills, just because you know, they're desperate, you know,
Speaker 2: and they were poorly coached in that game against the Patriots,
Speaker 2: Like they kept trying to run the ball for whatever reason.
Speaker 2: They should have stopped because Alan could kind of throw
Speaker 2: it through the wind and they looked much better when
Speaker 2: they threw. So they're probably a little desperate and a
Speaker 2: little mad. So if I had to go somewhere, I
Speaker 2: take the Hook with the Bills.
Speaker 1: But I am running away from it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a fun, sexy game.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 4: The only thing I could maybe talk myself into, I
Speaker 4: think is the under here m hm fifty three and a.
Speaker 3: Half just because you mentioned it. The Bill.
Speaker 4: I mean, they're a finesse team. They can't run the ball.
Speaker 4: They're not going to be able to run the ball
Speaker 4: against Tampa effectively, so they're gonna be one dimensional and
Speaker 4: Brady has kind of quietly been not that great lately. Sure,
Speaker 4: seven interceptions in his last five games, and over his
Speaker 4: last four games collectively, he's averaging under seven point yards
Speaker 4: per pass attempt. I mean, we've talked about this on
Speaker 4: our Sunday night show. Very often he is settling for
Speaker 4: the checkdowns and not really hunting downfield or you know,
Speaker 4: the quick hitters to Godwin, like the quick bubble screens,
Speaker 4: or the quick slants over the middle, or many many
Speaker 4: many dumpoffs to Leonard Fournette. So it's not like this
Speaker 4: is a quick strike, beat you thirty yards at a
Speaker 4: time offense. This is kind of a you know, like
Speaker 4: ball control passing.
Speaker 3: Game in a lot of ways.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so fifty three and a half seems a little
Speaker 4: tall to me.
Speaker 2: You don't have to talk me into an under too
Speaker 2: hard there, but I do think Actually I log this
Speaker 2: in our app, which again you can do. You have
Speaker 2: the betting pros app even if you're not a you know,
Speaker 2: somebody who does this for a living or anything like that.
Speaker 2: You can log your pick. See where you stack up
Speaker 2: on a leader board with other users. How about your
Speaker 2: packers pat taking on the bears. This is stuck at
Speaker 2: twelve and a half pretty much generally speaking, since it
Speaker 2: opened kind of a weird line.
Speaker 1: What do you think.
Speaker 3: It's it's tilted towards the Bears.
Speaker 2: I think at twelve and a half though, right, I've
Speaker 2: got to have minus one ten pretty evenly for us
Speaker 2: all that you're looking at DraftKings right at draftings minus
Speaker 2: one twenty at twelve and a half, where the Packers
Speaker 2: are even at minus twelve and a half.
Speaker 1: Everywhere else I see Pat, it's one ten on both sides.
Speaker 1: It's just drafting.
Speaker 4: Yeah, the Packers have not had that game. They seem
Speaker 4: to have one game a year, and it often happens
Speaker 4: against a divisional rival and a lesser divisional rival like
Speaker 4: the Normally it's the Lions. Normally they sleep walk through
Speaker 4: their home game against the Lions. They didn't do that
Speaker 4: this year. Maybe it's the Bears where they have that
Speaker 4: one game of a year they just sleepwalk through a
Speaker 4: game at home. But man, it's hard to back the
Speaker 4: Bears here with any confidence with Justin Fields coming.
Speaker 3: Off the injury.
Speaker 4: Maybe the Packers get JayR Alexander back, adding to a
Speaker 4: pass defense that has already within the last six weeks
Speaker 4: shut down Patrick Mahomes, Kyler, Murray, Russell Wilson.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean twelve and a half points is a lot.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not.
Speaker 4: Sure how I feel about that. And I'm just I'm
Speaker 4: gonna lay off here.
Speaker 1: Dan, I'm staying far away.
Speaker 2: Also, we'll be podcasting during it, Pat, so you won't
Speaker 2: even be able to get to enjoy it for your
Speaker 2: own team there. Yeah, it's just a weird number, and
Speaker 2: I don't really know how I feel. I you know,
Speaker 2: Justin Fields will be starting, okay, I guess Alan Robinson back, Okay,
Speaker 2: But I could see the Packers winning this game by
Speaker 2: twenty four points, or I could see them just sort
Speaker 2: of like kind of have a general malaise. Is they're like,
Speaker 2: you know, probably don't need to do too much to
Speaker 2: win this game and not pushing it or anything like that.
Speaker 2: Last one, Pat Rams busitying the Cardinals Monday Night Football.
Speaker 2: It's two right now. The Cardinals laying two was two
Speaker 2: and a half earlier. There's still some two and a
Speaker 2: halfs out there. Any feelings on this one.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm kind of leaning towards the Cardinals here laying
Speaker 4: the points. I mean, last time they played in Week four,
Speaker 4: the Rams were on top of the world and they
Speaker 4: kind of got drilled thirty seven to twenty. And I
Speaker 4: think we've only had more questions about the Rams developed
Speaker 4: since then, and a lot of them are on the
Speaker 4: defensive side of the ball. I mean, they did beat
Speaker 4: Jacksonville thirty three to seven last week, but before that,
Speaker 4: they give it thirty six to Green Bay, thirty one
Speaker 4: to the forty nine Ers, twenty eight to the Titans,
Speaker 4: twenty two to the Texans, and nineteen to the Lions.
Speaker 4: So they have not been playing good defense, Like this
Speaker 4: is not the shutdown Rams defense A lot of people think,
Speaker 4: I don't know, a lot of people seem to think,
Speaker 4: based on the recent results recent seasons that this is
Speaker 4: still like a really good defense. But all the metrics
Speaker 4: say the Rams have been utterly average defensively this year.
Speaker 4: So I think the Cardinals are going to be able
Speaker 4: to score on this one. I don't know if the
Speaker 4: Rams are going to be able to score that much
Speaker 4: on the Cardinals with some of their offensive struggles.
Speaker 3: I like the Cardinals here.
Speaker 1: I do too.
Speaker 2: If I have to go one way, I would take
Speaker 2: the Cardinals. I you know, haven't been all in on
Speaker 2: the Cardinals this whole year. I've kind of been waiting
Speaker 2: for the shoot a drop, but you know, with Murray
Speaker 2: healthy right now, they are just a better team than
Speaker 2: the Rams, who are struggling, as you mentioned, defensively and offensively.
Speaker 2: I mean Matthew Stafford, you know, has he has his games,
Speaker 2: but you know without Robert Woods. Obviously, Odell Beckham Junior,
Speaker 2: as much as he stepped in, has been banged up.
Speaker 1: Of course, So I agree with you here.
Speaker 4: I do also, I don't have current injury information, but
Speaker 4: I know that they're very good. Starting center Brian Allen
Speaker 4: got hurt last week early on, and their left guard
Speaker 4: David Edwards University of Wisconsin shout out.
Speaker 3: Both injured last week.
Speaker 4: I don't know what their status is, and if those
Speaker 4: two don't play, protection is going to be an issue
Speaker 4: for staff Yeah.
Speaker 1: That's a good point.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I haven't seen anything on them either, but obviously
Speaker 2: we'll need to monitor that as the week goes on.
Speaker 1: All right, Pat, We've done it, We've gone through everything.
Speaker 2: Everybody has our picks already from earlier and again we
Speaker 2: will see about that forty nine Ers Bengals game. We'll
Speaker 2: see how that one turns out, and maybe it'll it'll
Speaker 2: you know, push it at one and we can both
Speaker 2: sort of you know, tip our hats and you know,
Speaker 2: not be too upset there on Sunday night, and.
Speaker 4: The dog stayed quiet. Dan, the chloroform worked perfectly. I
Speaker 4: don't want to get the pe of people mad at me.
Speaker 3: Just forget I.
Speaker 1: Said that was a joke. He's earned an extra bone.
Speaker 2: Pat My dog, I'm sure is downstairs staring at the
Speaker 2: neighborhood Bobcat really ready to go out. And if he
Speaker 2: ever ran out there and saw the Bobcat, he would
Speaker 2: then turn over and like show his belly or something
Speaker 2: because he's a whim. But anyway, thank you for popping
Speaker 2: on everybody. Enjoy your NFL Sunday. We'll be back again
Speaker 2: on Monday talking about an early look at the week
Speaker 2: fifteen lines crazy that we're here, ready an early look
Speaker 2: then on Monday or Tuesday, depending on when we get
Speaker 2: it out.
Speaker 1: Enjoy your weekend, everybody. We'll talk to you again then