WEBVTT - Week 14 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 139) 0:00:13.440 --> 0:00:14.120 Hey to everybody. 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:16.640 Welcome back to the Betting Pros podcast, brought to you 0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:19.320 by bet MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris. You can 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:21.239 find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. It is 0:00:21.280 --> 0:00:22.920 week fourteen of the NFL season. 0:00:22.960 --> 0:00:23.520 It's time to. 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:26.760 Talk about our best bets from a spread or money 0:00:26.800 --> 0:00:29.280 line or totals perspective. Here to do that with me 0:00:29.520 --> 0:00:33.400 is Pat Fitzmorris. Find them on Twitter at fits Underscore 0:00:33.600 --> 0:00:34.640 ff Fits. 0:00:34.680 --> 0:00:35.519 How are you today? 0:00:35.960 --> 0:00:37.279 I'm good, Dan? How are you? 0:00:37.760 --> 0:00:40.640 I'm doing all right? We have both locked our dogs 0:00:41.120 --> 0:00:44.240 in another room far away. That's one of our favorite 0:00:44.240 --> 0:00:46.560 things to do when we podcast together, which is fairly often, 0:00:46.880 --> 0:00:49.159 which is to make sure that the dogs cannot get 0:00:49.200 --> 0:00:50.760 in and ruin our entire podcasts. 0:00:50.800 --> 0:00:52.240 Are you are you? You feel comfortable? 0:00:52.280 --> 0:00:54.120 We've got a good half hour forty five minutes here 0:00:54.240 --> 0:00:55.400 where you can survive. 0:00:55.400 --> 0:00:58.920 By lock far away? You mean sleeping next to me? Right? Oh? No, 0:00:59.040 --> 0:01:00.880 much so? All right, that's okay. 0:01:00.880 --> 0:01:03.160 I've got an emergency bone at the ready in case 0:01:03.200 --> 0:01:05.560 I need it. If he wakes up and wants to 0:01:05.640 --> 0:01:08.240 annoy me. That would buy us enough time, I think 0:01:08.240 --> 0:01:09.080 to finish the show. 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:09.960 Very good. 0:01:09.959 --> 0:01:12.920 Well, I was lucky enough for my dog to write 0:01:12.920 --> 0:01:16.040 before we start recording, see the neighborhood, Bobcat and run 0:01:16.080 --> 0:01:18.640 downstairs barking up crazy. And then I just locked the 0:01:18.640 --> 0:01:20.760 door behind it. So we should be good here. But 0:01:20.800 --> 0:01:23.840 if you hear some scratching, that is that is him 0:01:23.920 --> 0:01:26.399 trying to get in. All right, let's get into it, Pat, 0:01:26.400 --> 0:01:28.920 This is gonna be a good show for us, as 0:01:29.319 --> 0:01:31.920 people will find out shortly, because I know you and 0:01:31.959 --> 0:01:34.840 I think very similarly on a lot of things, and 0:01:34.920 --> 0:01:37.320 it does look like we may be on the opposite 0:01:37.360 --> 0:01:39.880 side of a couple of things today. But before we do, 0:01:40.120 --> 0:01:43.320 let's talk about a couple of housekeeping items. 0:01:43.800 --> 0:01:44.039 Here. 0:01:45.080 --> 0:01:47.880 You can watch this show if you want to see 0:01:47.880 --> 0:01:50.960 both of our smiling faces here on our YouTube channel 0:01:51.080 --> 0:01:54.920 YouTube dot com slash bedding Pros. And by the way, 0:01:55.360 --> 0:01:59.000 you can win a signed Saquon Barkley helmet just by 0:01:59.000 --> 0:01:59.400 doing that. 0:01:59.400 --> 0:02:00.160 That's all you gotta do. 0:02:00.240 --> 0:02:01.840 Go there and then go to betting Pros comp slash 0:02:01.880 --> 0:02:03.960 helm up to give me your name and everything like that, 0:02:04.360 --> 0:02:06.680 and to confirm that you subscribe to the channel. 0:02:06.760 --> 0:02:08.280 That's it easy pas when. 0:02:08.200 --> 0:02:10.360 Assigned helmet, and also let me remind you bet our 0:02:10.440 --> 0:02:13.320 latest offer from our sponsor bet MGM. Anybody betting on 0:02:13.360 --> 0:02:16.680 an NFL game for new customers, bet ten dollars, win 0:02:16.720 --> 0:02:19.200 two hundred dollars. It's a team you bet on, scores 0:02:19.360 --> 0:02:22.800 a touchdown, that's it. That's with the code Juice one 0:02:22.919 --> 0:02:26.280 hundred and again that's for new customers. That's available in 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:34.160 New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona, 0:02:34.280 --> 0:02:37.240 and Wyoming. All right, quick recap up last week. It 0:02:37.280 --> 0:02:39.120 was not a good week for this podcast, pat So. 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:43.080 And it's been a little bit stagnant lately, myself, our guests. Frankly, 0:02:43.200 --> 0:02:45.640 it hasn't been you know, we haven't been blowing the 0:02:45.760 --> 0:02:49.480 doors off here. So Ian McMillan, who is having one 0:02:49.480 --> 0:02:51.720 of the great betting seasons of all time. He bets 0:02:51.760 --> 0:02:54.639 every single NFL game. He's up something like twenty five 0:02:54.720 --> 0:02:56.799 units on the season. Like he's doing great. He went 0:02:56.840 --> 0:02:59.440 out for three, He missed on the Bears, getting eight 0:02:59.720 --> 0:03:01.880 from the Cardinals. The Raiders lank two and a half 0:03:01.919 --> 0:03:05.400 to Washington, and the Ravens and the Steelers over forty four. 0:03:05.919 --> 0:03:08.040 I went one and two. I missed on the Vikings 0:03:08.120 --> 0:03:10.880 laying seven to the Lions, which was not close. The 0:03:10.880 --> 0:03:13.720 second Adamsdally got injured, I realized, like, this is not 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:15.720 going to end well. Regardless. I also missed on the 0:03:15.720 --> 0:03:18.120 Bills lank three to the Patriots. The one I hit 0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:21.400 on was the Chargers getting three from the Bengals, which 0:03:21.480 --> 0:03:23.760 was my favorite of the weekend. That's nineteen and twenty 0:03:23.800 --> 0:03:26.519 on the year. That's obnoxious after a good start. So Pat, 0:03:26.880 --> 0:03:29.359 we have to get back on track here. I know, Pat, 0:03:29.400 --> 0:03:31.320 that we are not going to go six and oh 0:03:31.440 --> 0:03:34.720 on our six favorite bets here, as you and I 0:03:34.800 --> 0:03:38.880 may have discussed before we started recording. We can start there, 0:03:39.000 --> 0:03:40.000 or we can start wherever. 0:03:40.040 --> 0:03:41.640 You want. Give me a bet that you're looking at 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:42.520 this weekend. 0:03:42.720 --> 0:03:45.760 Well, Dan, and I'm surprised this was not the one 0:03:45.760 --> 0:03:48.560 that we agreed on necessarily because I know all about 0:03:48.560 --> 0:03:52.680 your blind loyalty to the New York Jets, your willingness 0:03:52.720 --> 0:03:55.360 to overlook their myriad deficiencies. 0:03:56.560 --> 0:03:59.040 None of this is true whatsoever, but go ahead. 0:04:00.040 --> 0:04:02.360 So I was kind of surprised you did not like 0:04:02.480 --> 0:04:06.360 them catching five and a half points at home against 0:04:06.360 --> 0:04:12.360 the Saints, who have lost five straights and have Taysom 0:04:12.440 --> 0:04:16.880 Hill at quarterback. Who yeah, I mean he was Harry 0:04:16.880 --> 0:04:19.840 Houdini with the rushing against the Cowboys. 0:04:20.040 --> 0:04:20.960 A fat lot of. 0:04:20.920 --> 0:04:24.200 Good it did them in that game. In his last appearance. 0:04:24.760 --> 0:04:28.360 I mean, he's just a terrible passer and has since. 0:04:28.760 --> 0:04:31.120 You know, now he's got this finger issue, So like, 0:04:31.240 --> 0:04:33.400 what is that going to look like? I know the 0:04:33.480 --> 0:04:36.680 Jets defense is bad, but I don't think Taysom Hill 0:04:36.760 --> 0:04:40.960 is capable of capitalizing on that. And the Jets have 0:04:41.000 --> 0:04:45.240 averaged twenty two point eight points a game since Week eight. 0:04:45.600 --> 0:04:49.760 This is actually a functional offense, and like Elijah Moore 0:04:49.839 --> 0:04:53.280 has added a lot of spark here, Like I love 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:55.719 the five and a half points. I mean, I'm gonna 0:04:55.720 --> 0:04:57.640 lock in the safe five and a half, but I'm 0:04:57.760 --> 0:05:00.560 probably gonna put a little something on the money too. 0:05:01.680 --> 0:05:04.520 I Mean, the Saints team is like they're done. They 0:05:04.560 --> 0:05:06.840 know they're not playoff bound. So it's not like you 0:05:06.880 --> 0:05:10.120 are going to get this spunky, fighting for their life 0:05:10.680 --> 0:05:12.880 Saints team, like they know they're not going to make 0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:13.560 the playoffs. 0:05:13.640 --> 0:05:16.280 Why well all that, why do you say five and seven? 0:05:16.800 --> 0:05:18.800 I mean we're gonna talk. Oh you know what I've had, 0:05:18.839 --> 0:05:21.159 I should have talked about the Vikings tonight. I'm sorry, 0:05:21.160 --> 0:05:22.960 you're right, because I know we had talked about that earlier. 0:05:23.040 --> 0:05:24.520 I'll tell you what, we'll talk about that at the 0:05:24.600 --> 0:05:26.200 end of the show. We'll talk about the game because 0:05:26.200 --> 0:05:29.120 people will have probably seen that game already by the 0:05:29.120 --> 0:05:31.800 time they listen to this anyway, But we talked about 0:05:31.839 --> 0:05:34.720 the Vikings at five and seven, like they're still in 0:05:34.760 --> 0:05:37.240 the playoffs. You never know it's the seventh spot, man, 0:05:37.279 --> 0:05:38.720 I mean, the Saints are still there. 0:05:39.720 --> 0:05:42.800 I guess, man, But five straight Dan with Taysom Hill 0:05:42.839 --> 0:05:45.280 at quarterback, I mean, they just they don't have a 0:05:45.360 --> 0:05:48.720 quarterback who can win out. They need to win out, 0:05:49.000 --> 0:05:51.720 and they're just not gonna do it with what they 0:05:51.720 --> 0:05:52.840 have on offense right now. 0:05:53.600 --> 0:05:56.920 All right, Well, I will say this. I'll point a 0:05:56.960 --> 0:05:58.760 couple of things out, just so you know. This has 0:05:58.800 --> 0:06:00.360 nothing to do with why I'm not taking the but 0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:04.000 I will point out Elijah Moore is battling the quad 0:06:04.000 --> 0:06:06.640 injury like that popped up on the practice report, which 0:06:06.680 --> 0:06:09.360 and it didn't sound like Robert Solid didn't come out 0:06:09.360 --> 0:06:11.240 and been like this is nothing, it's maintenance, We're going 0:06:11.320 --> 0:06:13.479 to take it easy. It was something where he was like, yeah, 0:06:13.480 --> 0:06:15.320 we'll see about it. So I'm at least a little 0:06:15.360 --> 0:06:18.480 cautious there. Tevin Coleman, also dealing with the concussion, may 0:06:18.520 --> 0:06:20.680 not play, and I know it's Tevin Coleman. It's not 0:06:20.720 --> 0:06:22.400 like that makes a huge difference, but they are dealing 0:06:22.400 --> 0:06:24.800 with some injuries. Keeling cole By the way, just as 0:06:24.839 --> 0:06:27.200 we were sitting down the record placed on the COVID 0:06:27.279 --> 0:06:30.000 nineteen list, I don't know the details of that. Again, 0:06:30.080 --> 0:06:32.160 not that that matters that much, right, It's not like 0:06:32.200 --> 0:06:35.760 these guys are doing it pad. I just like I 0:06:35.839 --> 0:06:39.000 can see a scenario with Alvin Kamara back in this game, 0:06:39.000 --> 0:06:41.960 which he's supposed to be that I won't say a 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:45.760 Patriots esque game plan here, but they can just go 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:49.560 out there and run the ball non stop whatsoever. And 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:52.040 if you have, let's say, the one thing the Saints 0:06:52.080 --> 0:06:55.200 do really well on defense is stop the run. And 0:06:55.279 --> 0:06:57.279 if the Jets can't run the ball at all, and 0:06:57.320 --> 0:07:00.240 you're looking at it has to be Zach Wilson to 0:07:00.240 --> 0:07:02.400 put up points here with the inability to move the 0:07:02.400 --> 0:07:05.600 ball on the ground, that just makes me worried. Man, 0:07:05.640 --> 0:07:07.520 I don't like the Saints. I'm not taking the Saints 0:07:07.560 --> 0:07:09.840 on the road laying the weird dead number of five 0:07:09.880 --> 0:07:11.640 and a half. But it's a game that I looked 0:07:11.640 --> 0:07:13.720 at and I just went, ugh, this is a game 0:07:13.760 --> 0:07:16.560 I want to run away from. Uh So that's really 0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:18.520 why that's where my hesitation comes from. 0:07:19.480 --> 0:07:22.200 Understandable, Yeah, I'm just. 0:07:23.800 --> 0:07:27.480 I agree that the Saints defense is pretty good and 0:07:28.000 --> 0:07:30.280 the running game could be an issue, although I think 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:32.720 even if Tevin Coleman isn't able to go, I think 0:07:32.760 --> 0:07:35.760 they would be able to squeeze enough out of ty 0:07:35.960 --> 0:07:41.680 Tyd Johnson. And there who's the mischievous Walter Austin Walter. 0:07:42.680 --> 0:07:43.720 I forgot about his name. 0:07:45.600 --> 0:07:47.840 Yeah, so should I mean should we like the under 0:07:47.840 --> 0:07:49.280 here at forty two and a half? 0:07:49.320 --> 0:07:49.520 Too? 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:54.920 It was under consideration for me, Pat for sure. I my, 0:07:55.720 --> 0:07:57.880 you know, if they're ever a defensive score, I could 0:07:57.880 --> 0:08:01.040 see happening here. But yeah, I mean, look, why would 0:08:01.080 --> 0:08:04.320 you throw the ball if you're the Saints in this game? 0:08:04.360 --> 0:08:07.400 I mean, the Jets cannot stop the run. You have 0:08:07.560 --> 0:08:11.200 your best playmaker obviously on offense is Alvin Kamara, and 0:08:11.240 --> 0:08:14.520 you've got a quarterback who's got mallet finger and by 0:08:14.560 --> 0:08:17.720 the way, doesn't even have the Deontay Harris, right, like, 0:08:17.840 --> 0:08:20.600 let me have a slant and take it seventy yards 0:08:20.640 --> 0:08:22.880 to the house. It does strike me as the under 0:08:22.920 --> 0:08:24.960 is the right play when it's a total that low, 0:08:25.240 --> 0:08:27.360 and I'm about to take an over under also on 0:08:27.400 --> 0:08:29.920 the under, also with a total that's close to that low. 0:08:29.960 --> 0:08:33.240 But it gives me sort of concerns. But I do 0:08:33.400 --> 0:08:36.080 like the under better than the side in this one. 0:08:36.320 --> 0:08:37.800 You like the under as well if you had to 0:08:37.800 --> 0:08:38.559 go one way. 0:08:38.679 --> 0:08:40.400 Yeah, I like the under two, but I would take 0:08:40.440 --> 0:08:41.280 the side first. 0:08:41.679 --> 0:08:43.559 Okay, all right, I'm staying away from the side, And 0:08:43.600 --> 0:08:46.000 again I want to make it clear I'm not against 0:08:46.000 --> 0:08:47.640 you in this one. We'll get to one where I'm 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:50.080 against you, Pat, but I'm not against you on this one. 0:08:50.559 --> 0:08:52.520 And you know it's got to be. I've got to 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:53.520 feel really. 0:08:53.240 --> 0:08:54.920 Strong if I'm going to back the Jets, and I 0:08:54.960 --> 0:08:58.760 certainly don't hear so you know if actually I don't 0:08:58.800 --> 0:09:00.319 even have a if I had to go way, I 0:09:00.320 --> 0:09:02.160 would go this way. If I had to go one way, 0:09:02.240 --> 0:09:04.679 I would you root for the asteroid and jump out 0:09:04.720 --> 0:09:07.120 the window and do something else. I'm gonna start with 0:09:07.160 --> 0:09:10.400 the total, Pat, And then I was thinking maybe I'll 0:09:10.400 --> 0:09:11.960 start with the game that I know we're on different sides. 0:09:11.960 --> 0:09:13.560 I'll start with the total, though, since we talked about 0:09:13.559 --> 0:09:16.400 a low total, I will give an equally low total 0:09:16.440 --> 0:09:18.840 here the Panthers and the Falcons, Pat and I'm going 0:09:18.960 --> 0:09:22.400 under forty two and a half. Carolina fired Joe Brady 0:09:22.480 --> 0:09:26.200 and the stated reason was he doesn't run enough, Like 0:09:26.400 --> 0:09:28.959 he is not running the ball enough. So I don't 0:09:29.000 --> 0:09:30.840 know what the over under is on rush attempts here 0:09:30.880 --> 0:09:33.400 between Cam and Chuba Hubbard and you want to get 0:09:33.400 --> 0:09:35.520 a mirror of Dullah involved in there, but it's got 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:37.480 to be like thirty five or something like that. Like 0:09:37.520 --> 0:09:41.120 they're just gonna run the ball the entire time, is 0:09:41.160 --> 0:09:43.840 what I guess, especially Pat after we saw Cam, who's 0:09:43.880 --> 0:09:45.560 going to start in this game. I know he's not confirmed, 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:47.599 but he's gonna start. Go five for twenty one in 0:09:47.640 --> 0:09:50.320 their most recent game. Like the passing game isn't really working, 0:09:50.400 --> 0:09:52.960 so I don't expect them to attempt too many passes. 0:09:53.240 --> 0:09:56.120 And again, a lot of running attempts that bleeds the clock. 0:09:56.200 --> 0:09:58.240 That's kind of what we're saying here with this Jets game. 0:09:58.559 --> 0:10:01.840 And the Falcons are bad defend for sure. Uh there's 0:10:01.880 --> 0:10:05.439 the dog areas. Don't worry about it. Pat, you're very 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:07.720 concerned about the dog barking. I promise you it's not 0:10:07.800 --> 0:10:08.280 a big deal. 0:10:08.440 --> 0:10:11.080 Whatever. I will not let my crazy man in. But anyway, I. 0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:12.640 Don't worry about it because I do know you are 0:10:12.640 --> 0:10:14.880 concerned about the dog barking, So don't worry about. 0:10:14.679 --> 0:10:15.959 What's her anyway. 0:10:16.160 --> 0:10:18.280 So the Falcons are bad defensively, but they are worse 0:10:18.520 --> 0:10:20.480 against the pass than they are against the run. Like 0:10:20.559 --> 0:10:22.560 that's just the way it is, and I think that's 0:10:22.600 --> 0:10:24.720 part of why they get beaten so badly. 0:10:24.800 --> 0:10:26.520 So I think with running it. 0:10:26.480 --> 0:10:29.079 Like the scoring, I don't think that the Panthers will 0:10:29.080 --> 0:10:31.480 be able to just run down the field every single 0:10:31.640 --> 0:10:35.000 drive and score necessarily, especially without Christian McCaffrey. But I 0:10:35.040 --> 0:10:37.160 do think that they'll have long, sustained drives and that'll 0:10:37.160 --> 0:10:39.640 bleed the clock a little bit. And on defense, the 0:10:39.640 --> 0:10:41.680 Panthers get a lot of pressure that is bad for 0:10:41.760 --> 0:10:44.839 Matt Ryan. You've got probably gilmour can just stick on 0:10:44.960 --> 0:10:46.560 Kyle Pitts and take him out of the game, like 0:10:46.640 --> 0:10:49.080 pretty much every team has been doing of late, and 0:10:49.120 --> 0:10:51.240 then they focus everything else. I just getting pressure on 0:10:51.280 --> 0:10:53.360 Matt Ryan and taking away Cordero Patterson and then the 0:10:53.400 --> 0:10:56.080 Falcons are out of luck on offense. Ryan was not 0:10:56.240 --> 0:10:58.160 great against them in the first game. Now you're on 0:10:58.200 --> 0:11:00.880 the road in a second division game, which I feel 0:11:00.920 --> 0:11:02.800 like the teams know each other already at this point. 0:11:02.960 --> 0:11:06.160 They usually feels like it leads itself to a little 0:11:06.280 --> 0:11:11.040 you know, scoring loll Here again, they're both five and seven, Like, 0:11:11.120 --> 0:11:13.680 realistically they're both out of the playoff hunt, but they're 0:11:13.720 --> 0:11:16.240 also still in the playoff hunt. Carolina needs a win 0:11:16.320 --> 0:11:18.040 and they're all in right. I mean, they went for 0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:20.240 Gilmour like they went for it this year even if 0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:22.200 they shouldn't have, so they need to win here. I 0:11:22.200 --> 0:11:25.320 think the defense plays really well, holds Atlanta down, and 0:11:25.360 --> 0:11:27.200 I think with all the running that this is going 0:11:27.240 --> 0:11:29.400 to be like a really low scoring game here. It 0:11:29.440 --> 0:11:32.440 strikes me as like a like a twenty thirteen type 0:11:32.440 --> 0:11:33.959 of game here, So I will go the under even 0:11:33.960 --> 0:11:35.520 though it's low here at forty two and a half. 0:11:36.040 --> 0:11:38.920 Yeah, I'm probably going to piggyback you on that one. 0:11:39.720 --> 0:11:42.360 We saw the first game Carolina one, nineteen thirteen when 0:11:42.400 --> 0:11:47.560 they met earlier. We have not seen any appreciable improvements 0:11:47.600 --> 0:11:50.760 in either offense since then. I hate everything about the 0:11:50.800 --> 0:11:56.040 Falcons offense except Cordero Patterson pretty much. You know, we 0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:59.760 have talked about this on our Sunday Recap pod, where 0:11:59.800 --> 0:12:02.920 we have seen instances where Matt Ryan drops back to pass, 0:12:03.440 --> 0:12:07.079 gets like four seconds of protection, scans the field, still 0:12:07.120 --> 0:12:10.959 cannot find an open receiver and like eventually takes a sack. 0:12:11.160 --> 0:12:16.000 So yeah, like Cam is just like, we've got some 0:12:16.200 --> 0:12:20.160 really bad passers playing quarterback in the NFL this week. 0:12:20.360 --> 0:12:21.840 I got some really. 0:12:21.600 --> 0:12:25.520 Non functional passing games, and I think we're looking at 0:12:25.520 --> 0:12:28.840 one with Carolina too. So as you said, it's probably 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:32.040 going to be a thirty five running rushing attempt game 0:12:32.080 --> 0:12:34.760 for Carolina that's going to speed up the game. This 0:12:34.880 --> 0:12:36.400 is one of those that could be over at like 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:38.720 two fifty five Central time. 0:12:38.760 --> 0:12:39.920 I think, yes, So. 0:12:41.400 --> 0:12:43.760 I'm with you here. I think this one plays under. 0:12:43.800 --> 0:12:45.480 I was kind of surprised to see it as high 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:46.040 as it was. 0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:50.199 What game ends first, Pat Saint Chetz or Falcons father. 0:12:50.640 --> 0:12:52.040 Yeah, that's boy. 0:12:52.120 --> 0:12:55.720 That is going to be a sprint to two sprinters 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:58.199 going at it like Ussein Bolts trying to get under 0:12:58.280 --> 0:13:00.360 the four pm Eastern wire. 0:13:01.120 --> 0:13:01.520 I want. 0:13:02.080 --> 0:13:04.679 I want our books to start making. That is something 0:13:04.679 --> 0:13:06.559 we can bet on which game end ends. 0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:09.360 First, fun weekly prop, wouldn't it. 0:13:09.920 --> 0:13:12.040 Yeah, Like we'll start our own sports book. We'll get 0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:14.000 that going, all right, So that's my first pick. 0:13:14.120 --> 0:13:15.960 Go for number two. Whatever you want. 0:13:16.080 --> 0:13:19.200 What do you got since we're on the Undersdan, how 0:13:19.240 --> 0:13:24.320 about Jacksonville Tennessee under forty three and a half. I 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:27.800 mean Jacksonville has scored ten point seven points a game 0:13:27.800 --> 0:13:32.559 in their last six just a completely dysfunctional passing game. 0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:33.679 We know that. 0:13:33.920 --> 0:13:37.160 And now the running game. You know, Urban Meyer choosing 0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:41.600 to punish James Robinson for you know, a fumble where 0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:44.240 he's slammed to the ground by Aaron Donald and then 0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:47.280 like Carlos side lose is a much worse fumble. I 0:13:47.360 --> 0:13:50.240 think it was like four series or three series after 0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:53.880 that fumble that James Robinson didn't play and Hide has 0:13:53.920 --> 0:13:56.280 a softer fumble and then plays the very next series. 0:13:56.960 --> 0:13:57.760 But never mind that. 0:13:57.920 --> 0:14:00.600 So we know the Jacksonville offense is gonna struggle to 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:04.400 put up like even seventeen points, and the Tennessee offense, 0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:08.000 since Dereck Henry got hurt. They that surprisingly good performance 0:14:08.040 --> 0:14:10.640 against the Rams where they won twenty eight to sixteen, 0:14:11.720 --> 0:14:14.920 then twenty three to twenty one against the Saints, but 0:14:15.080 --> 0:14:19.960 since then they lost what twenty two to thirteen to 0:14:20.280 --> 0:14:24.720 Houston and last week thirty six or two weeks ago 0:14:24.760 --> 0:14:28.520 thirty six thirteen to New England. You know, tougher matchup, 0:14:28.560 --> 0:14:32.120 but we still don't know if Julio Jones is going 0:14:32.160 --> 0:14:35.600 to play, and this is a barely functional passing game. 0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:38.200 Even if he does play, I think we've got the 0:14:38.240 --> 0:14:41.520 amalgam of running backs they have, like it's it's not 0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:42.640 an offense. 0:14:42.240 --> 0:14:42.880 To be feared. 0:14:42.920 --> 0:14:45.840 I'm not too worried about like the Titan Titans putting 0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:49.320 up thirty in this game to push it over single handedly. 0:14:49.600 --> 0:14:53.000 So I mean, I think you get a real good 0:14:53.000 --> 0:14:55.840 percentage play with the under here. Not saying it's foolproof, 0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:58.800 but you know, I feel like you're seventy percent this 0:14:58.880 --> 0:14:59.480 plays under. 0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:02.960 Certainly none of the bets that anybody gives out as 0:15:02.960 --> 0:15:05.280 full proof, But yes, I agree with you here because 0:15:05.320 --> 0:15:09.360 I do think that certainly the Titans offense since all 0:15:09.400 --> 0:15:13.680 the injuries, has been pretty stagnant and understandably so, it's 0:15:13.720 --> 0:15:15.720 never been an explosive offense. You've just had the best 0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:18.080 running back you know playing in the game right now, 0:15:18.360 --> 0:15:21.400 dominating and that allowing you know, Ryan Tannehill to be 0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:24.640 the most efficient quarterback in the NFL. So with this, 0:15:25.000 --> 0:15:27.360 even if Julio Jones plays, like, this is not a 0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:29.960 Titans team that is going to basically go out there 0:15:30.000 --> 0:15:32.920 and put up a million points unless I get some 0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:35.520 sort of defensive score, because that's just not what they 0:15:35.520 --> 0:15:37.000 want to do, especially in the game that they are 0:15:37.040 --> 0:15:39.080 favored to win by eight and a half or nine 0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:42.600 depending on the book. That they don't need to push it, 0:15:42.680 --> 0:15:44.800 they don't need to take chances. And you mentioned, you know, 0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:47.840 the game against the Rams, there's a defensive score, like 0:15:47.880 --> 0:15:50.200 their points come from defense, right, It's not like their 0:15:50.200 --> 0:15:52.000 offense has ever lit it up since they've had all 0:15:52.000 --> 0:15:54.880 the injuries. And Julio Jones, like if he plays, if 0:15:54.880 --> 0:15:57.800 he doesn't play, I love Julio Jones, pat, but it's 0:15:57.840 --> 0:16:00.200 not like AJ Brown isn't there, and even when he was, 0:16:00.280 --> 0:16:02.600 it's not like they were really doing all that much anyway. 0:16:02.720 --> 0:16:04.760 So I am with you here. I think both teams 0:16:04.760 --> 0:16:05.400 struggled to score. 0:16:05.480 --> 0:16:07.920 So man, unders huh, that's what we're doing in this 0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:11.280 game in this podcast, right, now, huh can make one other. 0:16:12.480 --> 0:16:15.760 Just the Tennessee's run defense is really good. And if 0:16:15.840 --> 0:16:19.640 you're forcing Jacksonville to be one dimensional and lean on 0:16:19.680 --> 0:16:23.320 the pass, right, boy, I mean, that's going to damage 0:16:23.360 --> 0:16:26.600 their chances. And uh, you know, the Jacksonville defense is 0:16:26.640 --> 0:16:28.160 not a complete pushover either. 0:16:28.840 --> 0:16:29.280 Correct. 0:16:29.360 --> 0:16:30.840 That was actually the next one I want to make, 0:16:30.880 --> 0:16:33.680 which is I think we think of the Jacksonville because 0:16:33.720 --> 0:16:36.040 I think sometimes you think of teams being terrible and 0:16:36.080 --> 0:16:39.320 you assume that every part of the team is terrible, 0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:42.560 and the overall defense for Jacksonville is not. And so 0:16:42.760 --> 0:16:46.080 that's going to probably lend itself to a game that's 0:16:46.120 --> 0:16:49.600 going to be relatively low scoring. So I really hadn't 0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:51.680 even thought about this one very much, Pat until you 0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:52.200 brought it up. 0:16:52.360 --> 0:16:54.080 But I do like it. 0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:57.040 Now I'll try it on it. But let look, I 0:16:57.040 --> 0:16:59.920 have two picks left. Okay, one of them I feel 0:17:00.080 --> 0:17:02.480 a little less confident in, and I've sort of been 0:17:02.480 --> 0:17:04.920 debating when I was thinking about the third pick. One 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:06.560 of them I like a lot, and it is the 0:17:06.600 --> 0:17:08.879 one Pat, which we are on opposite side. So we 0:17:08.920 --> 0:17:10.879 talked about I kept waiting for you to bring it up. 0:17:10.920 --> 0:17:12.560 You were waiting for me to bring it up. I'll 0:17:12.560 --> 0:17:14.800 start then, and it is the forty nine ers that 0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:18.200 are visiting the Bengals, And right now the forty nine 0:17:18.280 --> 0:17:20.080 ers are laying a point. When I looked at it 0:17:20.119 --> 0:17:22.439 with Joe and I said, I loved it. Then it 0:17:22.520 --> 0:17:25.040 was the forty nine ers getting a point. So there's 0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:27.320 probably been a little money. Not that it doesn't matter 0:17:27.359 --> 0:17:28.919 to me, like giving a point, getting a point really 0:17:28.960 --> 0:17:30.919 doesn't matter if you cross hear at that point. But 0:17:31.560 --> 0:17:33.480 I do like the forty nine ers. You'll be on 0:17:33.520 --> 0:17:35.040 the other side for one of your picks. And we 0:17:35.080 --> 0:17:36.760 talked about that whether or not that made sense, and 0:17:36.800 --> 0:17:38.960 I said, you and I are known to agree on 0:17:39.160 --> 0:17:39.840 many things. 0:17:40.119 --> 0:17:41.040 Let's disagree. 0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:43.520 I'll make my case first, Pat, that's good with you, 0:17:43.680 --> 0:17:44.720 and then you can counter. 0:17:44.640 --> 0:17:47.280 Good, absolutely wonderful, all right. So this is the one 0:17:47.320 --> 0:17:48.399 I really do like right now. 0:17:48.440 --> 0:17:50.400 And I know there are some people out there who 0:17:51.280 --> 0:17:53.119 like to fade me, which is great, And in this 0:17:53.160 --> 0:17:55.120