WEBVTT - Fed Meeting, US Election Aftermath 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:09.119 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:09.119 --> 0:00:13.320 Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 0:00:13.320 --> 0:00:15.800 Eastern on Apple car Playing and Broyd Auto with the 0:00:15.800 --> 0:00:19.720 Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 0:00:19.920 --> 0:00:22.760 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:23.640 --> 0:00:25.920 Let's get a preview here of what we may here 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:28.600 from this ft of reserve, this affternoon. Dennis Lockhart is 0:00:28.640 --> 0:00:32.720 a former Atlanta Fed president, joining us from Atlanta, Georgia 0:00:33.000 --> 0:00:36.480 via that zoom thing. Dennis, thanks so much for joining 0:00:36.560 --> 0:00:39.400 us here. I guess the market's looking for a twenty 0:00:39.400 --> 0:00:41.160 five basis point cut today. 0:00:41.240 --> 0:00:43.400 A do you think that's what we'll get? And be 0:00:43.560 --> 0:00:44.040 what kind of. 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:46.360 Message you think Jay Powell wants to get across today. 0:00:49.200 --> 0:00:51.760 Well, I think it's almost a certainty that we'll get 0:00:51.760 --> 0:00:54.680 twenty five base points today. It would be a big 0:00:54.720 --> 0:00:58.800 surprise to everyone, so I put that aside. I don't 0:00:58.800 --> 0:01:02.480 think it's a question. The message coming out of this 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:07.800 meeting will certainly describe the economy as strong, with the 0:01:07.920 --> 0:01:13.679 labor market cooling but not abruptly cooling, inflation coming down. 0:01:13.760 --> 0:01:17.120 I think you'll hear more of the same basic message 0:01:17.160 --> 0:01:22.440 that Powell has put out at previous press conferences, so 0:01:22.480 --> 0:01:26.440 it's sort of a steady as she goes. He'll explain 0:01:26.560 --> 0:01:31.160 that the committee believes that they can continue to cut 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:39.000 rates through twenty twenty five, and he's not going to 0:01:39.080 --> 0:01:42.080 make much noise about the election. I don't think he'll 0:01:42.080 --> 0:01:46.640 say anything that suggests any reaction to it at all. 0:01:47.319 --> 0:01:51.480 In the short term, at least, the election won't have 0:01:51.600 --> 0:01:52.320 much influence. 0:01:53.120 --> 0:01:56.360 We don't know yet the impact on the economy of 0:01:56.400 --> 0:02:01.040 the new president's policies. Does that call for smaller rate 0:02:01.560 --> 0:02:05.240 increases in the future, or even applause until we get 0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:05.920 more clarity. 0:02:08.880 --> 0:02:14.080 Well, I wouldn't surprise me if they consider a skip, 0:02:15.280 --> 0:02:19.600 not necessarily a pause of putting a policy path on hold, 0:02:19.720 --> 0:02:23.680 but just the slowing of the process as early as January. 0:02:23.919 --> 0:02:27.000 I really don't expect that in December, although I would 0:02:27.040 --> 0:02:33.000 point out that in the September Summary of Economic Projections 0:02:33.680 --> 0:02:37.040 there were seven people who were looking to only seventy 0:02:37.080 --> 0:02:41.200 five basis points this year in twenty twenty four. That's 0:02:41.240 --> 0:02:45.079 a constituency for skipping in December if they continue to 0:02:45.120 --> 0:02:48.440 hold those views. So I think a skip in the 0:02:48.480 --> 0:02:51.200 one of the next two meetings, but more likely in 0:02:51.320 --> 0:02:56.640 January would allow them to take stock of what policies 0:02:56.639 --> 0:03:00.880 are likely to actually be implemented and rangers that they 0:03:00.919 --> 0:03:02.600 have in the outlook because of. 0:03:02.480 --> 0:03:07.640 That pretty big political event earlier this week. Dennis, how 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:11.560 should the Federal Reserve, if at all, address it today? 0:03:13.280 --> 0:03:15.680 I don't think they should address it at all today. 0:03:16.240 --> 0:03:21.320 The formulation of monetary policy is not a political or 0:03:21.400 --> 0:03:29.120 politically influenced policy setting process. And you know, it's not 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:32.160 as if he can ignore a question from the audience 0:03:32.240 --> 0:03:35.720 that brings it up. But I think what you'll find 0:03:35.840 --> 0:03:41.600 is power will stay very removed from anything that suggests 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:43.880 a reaction to political events. 0:03:44.680 --> 0:03:48.360 Does the FED, oh of the markets, any guidance. 0:03:51.280 --> 0:03:57.040 The you know, the Fed, does it Fed oh the 0:03:57.160 --> 0:03:59.960 markets guidance? I think the Fed has been giving guidance 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:04.520 that the direction of travel is in the direction of 0:04:04.640 --> 0:04:09.960 lower policy rates settings. They have to be indetermined as 0:04:10.080 --> 0:04:12.880 to where that will end. They just don't know. That 0:04:13.440 --> 0:04:17.479 depends a good deal on how the economy evolves over 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:21.680 the coming months and next year or so. So I 0:04:21.760 --> 0:04:25.440 think guidance has been given. I doubt that you'll hear 0:04:25.560 --> 0:04:30.520 much in the way of amplification of that or elaboration 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:36.599 on that. In this meeting, the direction is to a 0:04:36.800 --> 0:04:39.040 lower overall rate setting. 0:04:40.120 --> 0:04:43.320 Dennis, again, the FED cut race by fifty basis points, 0:04:43.320 --> 0:04:45.560 and as you just mentioned, there's the bias towards more 0:04:45.640 --> 0:04:48.479 rate cuts, yet yields to move sharply higher. 0:04:49.560 --> 0:04:53.040 Is that what's going on there for the average investor? 0:04:54.520 --> 0:04:57.000 I think there are a number of factors at work, 0:04:57.080 --> 0:05:01.440 but probably the one that deserves the most tension is 0:05:01.600 --> 0:05:07.599 the markets increasing their discount or pricing in some concern 0:05:07.680 --> 0:05:13.720 about the fiscal outlook both candidates. Basically, we're likely to 0:05:13.760 --> 0:05:20.080 be sustaining or even increasing deficits, and the proposals that 0:05:20.120 --> 0:05:24.440 are out there from Trump's campaign appear to be net 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:35.680 inflation era and conceivably net fiscal fiscally unchanged in many respects, 0:05:35.960 --> 0:05:39.600 if not worse. So I think what the markets are 0:05:39.640 --> 0:05:42.840 seeing is that the fiscal outlook coming to grips with 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:48.120 the reality of deficits in the rising debt as of 0:05:48.200 --> 0:05:51.839 now at least don't appear to be a priority, and 0:05:51.920 --> 0:05:54.360 they're pricing that into the longer term rates. 0:05:54.520 --> 0:05:57.320 WELLY ask you what you think the relationship should be 0:05:57.320 --> 0:06:00.400 between the President of the United States and the head 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:01.240 of the Federal Reserve. 0:06:04.080 --> 0:06:07.520 President of the United States should stay out of trying 0:06:07.560 --> 0:06:11.760 to influence the FED in the direction of monetary policy. 0:06:12.320 --> 0:06:15.400 The FED should operate independently. I happen to have pretty 0:06:15.440 --> 0:06:20.320 strong feelings about this. I think it's globally a fundamental 0:06:20.320 --> 0:06:23.040 of good governance to allow your central bank to make 0:06:23.080 --> 0:06:29.360 its decisions independently, and the influence is simply in the 0:06:29.440 --> 0:06:34.200 nominations that the President makes for the Board of Governors 0:06:34.320 --> 0:06:40.320 and the chair, and after that, I think the setting 0:06:40.400 --> 0:06:45.680 up policy should be done independently with no interaction with 0:06:45.800 --> 0:06:46.320 the president. 0:06:47.440 --> 0:06:52.040 Dennis, do you think what's the risk here if you're 0:06:52.080 --> 0:06:56.240 the Federal Reserve? Is it inflation coming back? Is it 0:06:56.440 --> 0:06:58.520 the economy tilting into a recession? Where do you think 0:06:58.560 --> 0:07:01.080 the FED is kind of folk here on that balance? 0:07:02.920 --> 0:07:05.359 Well, I think they're focused on two things. Of course, 0:07:05.640 --> 0:07:08.960 as everyone knows, there's a dual mandate, so they have 0:07:09.040 --> 0:07:15.520 to pay attention to both employment and inflation. A stickiness 0:07:15.560 --> 0:07:23.320 of inflation at current levels, possibly a resurgence which could 0:07:23.360 --> 0:07:27.560 be based on some policy decisions that are made in 0:07:27.560 --> 0:07:32.040 the Trump administration. So that is a concern and a 0:07:32.480 --> 0:07:38.600 cracking of the good situation we have in employment markets today. 0:07:40.120 --> 0:07:43.840 I pay attention to initial claims. If you saw initial 0:07:43.880 --> 0:07:47.400 claims shoot up, it would suggest that people are being 0:07:47.480 --> 0:07:51.280 laid off and something is changing. So I think they'll 0:07:51.400 --> 0:07:56.800 keep their eye on both and try to preserve a 0:07:56.920 --> 0:08:00.520 rather good economy we have at the moment, and particularly 0:08:00.560 --> 0:08:02.480 a good employment situation. 0:08:03.200 --> 0:08:05.920 Can I ask you, being there in Atlanta, what was 0:08:06.000 --> 0:08:10.080 the message that you interpreted was sent by voters in 0:08:10.120 --> 0:08:14.360 the Atlanta, in Georgia and Atlanta in particular, and how 0:08:14.360 --> 0:08:18.840 should that be interpreted in the formulation of policy, whether 0:08:18.840 --> 0:08:20.200 it be monetary or fiscal. 0:08:22.200 --> 0:08:26.080 Well, I'm so maybe a little early to opine on 0:08:26.400 --> 0:08:30.200 what the message was from the electorate in Georgia, and Georgia, 0:08:30.240 --> 0:08:32.520 of course, was like many other states around the country 0:08:32.559 --> 0:08:35.679 where Trump carried the state and got the electoral votes 0:08:35.720 --> 0:08:42.360 from the state. You know. I think one message is 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:48.440 that higher prices as a result of inflation, even with 0:08:48.920 --> 0:08:54.360 the argument that inflation is declining, higher prices really do 0:08:54.480 --> 0:08:59.199 affect the thinking of the voter, and I think that 0:08:59.400 --> 0:09:03.560 that was one of several factors that was not favorable 0:09:03.640 --> 0:09:09.680 to the Harris campaign. Prices rose during the hyperinflationary period 0:09:09.720 --> 0:09:13.600 we saw right after the pandemic. Inflation has been coming down, 0:09:13.600 --> 0:09:16.840 but the prices themselves have not been coming down, and 0:09:16.920 --> 0:09:23.520 that is a real constraint on consumptions in many households, 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:27.360 and I think there was to some degree a vote 0:09:27.720 --> 0:09:28.800 against that reality. 0:09:29.360 --> 0:09:31.760 Dennis Lockhart, thank you so much for joining us. Dennis Lockhart, 0:09:31.840 --> 0:09:36.520 former Atlanta Fed President, joining us from Atlanta via zoom thing. 0:09:36.600 --> 0:09:39.839 And when I think about Atlanta, phenomenal city, I've got, 0:09:40.000 --> 0:09:42.319 you know, just over my career, Senia experienced the growth 0:09:42.360 --> 0:09:44.560 of Atlanta, having gone there for so many times and 0:09:44.600 --> 0:09:49.079 had a lot of investment banking clients there. Every single 0:09:49.240 --> 0:09:51.200 street is named Peachtree Streeter. 0:09:51.920 --> 0:09:54.560 I believe Dennis's firm is on peach Street. 0:09:54.600 --> 0:09:58.400 Right, Yeah, Basically something like something like thirty six streets 0:09:58.440 --> 0:10:02.000 have the word Peachtree in the so it's very easy 0:10:02.040 --> 0:10:04.120 to get confused. And then there are a lot of 0:10:04.120 --> 0:10:07.040 other institutions that to use the word Peachtree. So it's 0:10:07.080 --> 0:10:11.240 a certainly a Peachtree crazy city, to say the least. 0:10:12.320 --> 0:10:15.320 Dennis, thanks so much for joining us. Former FED president 0:10:15.440 --> 0:10:17.960 for Atlanta, Dennis Lockhart. Yeah, it's it's amazing. It's a 0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:22.040 huge city, cosmopolitan, global city, but yeah, somebody, you know what, 0:10:22.320 --> 0:10:26.320 it's Peachtree, but it's Peatree north West Southeast, and it's street, 0:10:26.400 --> 0:10:30.959 it's Avenue, it's this. And so before you had like GPS, 0:10:32.679 --> 0:10:35.000 you'd say, you give an address to a cab driver 0:10:35.400 --> 0:10:37.280 nine times at attendant, you take it to the wrong 0:10:37.320 --> 0:10:41.439 place because it's oh it's Peachtree Southeast you wanted, you know. 0:10:41.480 --> 0:10:44.120 It's like and of course home to Coca Cola. 0:10:44.200 --> 0:10:47.440 Yeah, it's an awesome town, that great stuff. And it's just 0:10:47.440 --> 0:10:48.840 been I tell you, it's just been one of those 0:10:49.000 --> 0:10:51.200 you talk about the you know, the growth of the 0:10:51.240 --> 0:10:54.120 sun Belt, and Atlanta was the first, you know, and 0:10:54.679 --> 0:10:57.160 just the dynamic growth just over the last. 0:10:57.000 --> 0:10:58.480 Thirty forty years has been extraordinary. 0:10:58.920 --> 0:11:00.440 So now I think like the fourth bag is market 0:11:00.480 --> 0:11:02.360 in the US, it's something huge like that. 0:11:02.600 --> 0:11:05.559 It's on my bucket list. I haven't been yet, oh dude. 0:11:05.640 --> 0:11:07.200 I mean, I think I've been through the airport, but 0:11:07.240 --> 0:11:07.960 that was Yeah. 0:11:07.960 --> 0:11:09.880 But the traffic is just brutal down there. 0:11:09.880 --> 0:11:11.760 It's one of those again in the growth of the Southeast. 0:11:11.960 --> 0:11:13.480 You know, these towns go. 0:11:13.520 --> 0:11:16.120 So quickly the traffic, you know that the instructure can't 0:11:16.200 --> 0:11:20.600 keep up. But anyway, getting the latest from Dennis Lockhart. 0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:25.880 Down there, you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch 0:11:25.960 --> 0:11:29.280 us live weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play 0:11:29.360 --> 0:11:32.440 and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business. You can also 0:11:32.520 --> 0:11:35.960 listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 0:11:36.400 --> 0:11:40.840 Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty all. 0:11:40.800 --> 0:11:43.040 Right, not nostiting it for Alex deal on Paul Swingeel 0:11:43.040 --> 0:11:45.240 Life here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio, streaming live 0:11:45.280 --> 0:11:48.960 on YouTube as well. It is FED Day, and after 0:11:49.000 --> 0:11:51.920 announcing what's widely expected to be a quarter point cut industrates, 0:11:51.960 --> 0:11:55.440 the FED will have to reassure markets it can manage 0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:58.319 the impact of a president elect who's valed a raft 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:00.920 of new tariffs and tax cuts. What does that mean 0:12:01.000 --> 0:12:03.040 is FED Chairman j Palce did his job just get 0:12:03.040 --> 0:12:07.839 more difficult after twas Tuesday's political election results. Katerina sara 0:12:07.880 --> 0:12:09.920 Eva joints us here, a Federal. 0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:12.079 Reserve reporter from Bloomberg News. 0:12:12.480 --> 0:12:15.920 Katerina did FED chairman pals job get a little bit 0:12:15.960 --> 0:12:18.880 more difficult given the presidential election results from Tuesday? 0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:23.480 I think in a way, yeah, I mean, of course, 0:12:23.800 --> 0:12:27.679 you will try to you know, steer clear of anything 0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:31.199 politics related in his press conference, and you know, when 0:12:31.200 --> 0:12:33.880 he's asked about it going forward, they always try to 0:12:34.120 --> 0:12:37.000 remain a political But I think the reality of a 0:12:37.040 --> 0:12:40.400 new administration is that we are likely to see some 0:12:40.559 --> 0:12:45.080 policies that may stoke inflation a little bit or even growth. Right, 0:12:45.800 --> 0:12:49.520 it's not all negative, but it does mean, you know, 0:12:49.559 --> 0:12:51.680 it may change some things for the FED, and we've 0:12:51.720 --> 0:12:55.719 certainly seen that in banks. You know, some of the 0:12:56.160 --> 0:13:00.200 Wall Street economists and financial markets kind of repricing what 0:13:00.200 --> 0:13:02.160 they expect for the FED going forward. 0:13:03.360 --> 0:13:05.319 So what do you think we're going to get out 0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:07.960 of today? I feel like it's going to be a 0:13:08.000 --> 0:13:11.840 pretty boring FED meeting since they're locked in for twenty 0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:13.040 five basis points. 0:13:13.040 --> 0:13:14.640 But they probably won't want to. 0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:19.240 Say anything about the next meeting, certainly not about twenty 0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:19.880 twenty five. 0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:24.320 Right, Yeah, I think that's right. I think today should 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:27.440 be pretty boring. They're probably going to deliver what we're 0:13:27.480 --> 0:13:30.680 all expecting, which is that quarter point cut, like you're saying, 0:13:31.440 --> 0:13:33.800 and then it's it's not one of the quarterly meetings, 0:13:33.800 --> 0:13:37.040 so we don't get updated economic forecasts from them, so 0:13:37.080 --> 0:13:40.000 there's not kind of those extras that we would get at, 0:13:40.520 --> 0:13:42.319 you know, that we got in September and that we'll 0:13:42.360 --> 0:13:46.280 get in December. And yeah, I think I think they're 0:13:46.559 --> 0:13:48.920 really going to want to leave the door open because 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:53.040 we don't you know, we've had some economic data recently 0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:56.000 that has shown that things might be heating up a 0:13:56.000 --> 0:13:59.040 little bit again. So even outside of the election, we're 0:13:59.080 --> 0:14:02.360 seeing some strength in the economy that might have implications 0:14:02.360 --> 0:14:06.520 for the FED. And then also they we don't know 0:14:06.559 --> 0:14:09.480 what policies will be implemented. We were not going to 0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:12.160 have a new government in place until January and then 0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:14.760 you know, these things take a while, so the FED 0:14:14.840 --> 0:14:17.640 isn't going to want to kind of subscribe itself to 0:14:17.720 --> 0:14:20.000 anything that hasn't happened yet. 0:14:20.480 --> 0:14:24.040 So what do you think we'll hear from Chairman Pal 0:14:24.160 --> 0:14:26.120 today as it relates to the election. Is it just 0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:29.680 literally say nothing to dance around it, or just I 0:14:29.680 --> 0:14:32.720 guess kind of say, hey, you know, we're a political 0:14:32.800 --> 0:14:33.640 and we're fine. 0:14:34.960 --> 0:14:37.240 Yeah, I think that I think that is you know, 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:40.200 both of those is what we'll see. And we've seen 0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:42.440 that all year. You know, this has been a big 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:46.400 question for them. But yeah, they just they love to say, look, 0:14:46.520 --> 0:14:48.720 we have nothing to do with this. Our job is 0:14:48.760 --> 0:14:52.200 to react to what the economy is doing. Right, They'll 0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:55.400 they'll say things like Congress has given us this dual 0:14:55.480 --> 0:14:59.920 mandate stable prices and maximum employment. What we're focused on, 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:02.800 and we're looking at the data as it comes in 0:15:03.520 --> 0:15:06.040 to figure out what we can do. And they'll probably 0:15:06.080 --> 0:15:08.520 repeat something that they've been saying this year as well, 0:15:08.760 --> 0:15:12.040 which is that policies well positioned to address anything that 0:15:12.080 --> 0:15:14.680 comes its way. So we're kind of in a you know, 0:15:14.720 --> 0:15:17.320 they've started cutting interest rates already, we're in a position 0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:19.840 where if they need to cut more, they can do that. 0:15:19.920 --> 0:15:21.760 If they need to pause for a while, they can 0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:25.360 do that. So I think they they see themselves as 0:15:25.360 --> 0:15:28.520 being kind of in a good place to be nimble 0:15:28.560 --> 0:15:29.560 and react. 0:15:29.920 --> 0:15:33.160 Is policy really restrictive here? 0:15:33.280 --> 0:15:35.840 I mean, I'm looking at six thousand right now on 0:15:35.920 --> 0:15:40.480 the S and P five hundred. Unemployment is at four percent, 0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:43.680 growth is at three percent? I mean, what are they 0:15:43.800 --> 0:15:46.240 restricting with these levels? 0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:50.080 Yeah, and we just got some really hot you know, 0:15:50.120 --> 0:15:55.720 earnings number not earning like worker earnings numbers today, So yeah, 0:15:55.840 --> 0:15:57.640 I think that's been earnings. 0:15:57.760 --> 0:16:00.560 Earnings also have been good, and we're. 0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:04.600 Expecting fourteen percent earnings growth in Q four and Q one. 0:16:05.240 --> 0:16:07.960 Yes, yeah, yeah, yeah, No, I mean that's been the 0:16:08.000 --> 0:16:13.200 million dollar question all along, Right, how are we restrictive? 0:16:13.560 --> 0:16:16.640 How restrictive are we? If we are, how is that 0:16:16.760 --> 0:16:19.960 even being transmitted to the economy right now? I mean, 0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:22.760 we know, for example, with mortgage rates, a lot of 0:16:22.800 --> 0:16:25.320 people are locked into low rates and it's not having 0:16:25.360 --> 0:16:30.800 the transmission effect it that it normally would. So it is, 0:16:30.880 --> 0:16:34.520 it's it's I think that's an open question. And I 0:16:34.880 --> 0:16:36.840 you know, I do wonder if we're going to start 0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:39.160 hearing more chatter of are they going to have to 0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:42.840 start hiking again if things get really out of hand? 0:16:43.400 --> 0:16:45.480 Paul, you're not locked into a low mortgage rate. 0:16:45.760 --> 0:16:47.000 No, I'm at six percent? 0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:50.560 And are your refinanced dreams dash by Trump dash Yeah. 0:16:50.360 --> 0:16:53.000 I mean the rates just kick back up here, all right? 0:16:53.040 --> 0:16:55.960 Katherina sorry, a Federal Reserve reporter for Bloomberg News. Thank 0:16:55.960 --> 0:16:59.040 you so much for joining us there, matt Before we 0:16:59.120 --> 0:17:00.760 let you go here and we go to Joe Matthew 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:01.480 and bounce of power. 0:17:01.520 --> 0:17:02.200 What are you driving? 0:17:02.920 --> 0:17:03.080 Oh? 0:17:03.200 --> 0:17:06.480 Actually right now I'm driving a So for those who 0:17:06.720 --> 0:17:09.879 don't listen regularly, or watch my show. I drive a 0:17:09.880 --> 0:17:11.800 new car every week, so I'm always test driving a 0:17:11.800 --> 0:17:15.360 new vehicle for my podcast, Hot Pursuit with Hannah Elliott. 0:17:16.359 --> 0:17:20.600 Usually I'm in fancier cars, like maybe an Aston Martin 0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:25.040 or hot new Mercedes, a lot of BMW's I like 0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:25.440 a lot. 0:17:25.680 --> 0:17:28.679 Right now, I'm driving a Chrysler pacifica minivan. 0:17:29.040 --> 0:17:29.640 How's that going. 0:17:29.680 --> 0:17:32.919 It's a hybrid. I gotta say I had never driven 0:17:32.960 --> 0:17:34.399 a minivan before. 0:17:34.080 --> 0:17:35.680 Two kids, so you should be in the market. 0:17:35.800 --> 0:17:35.960 Yeah. 0:17:36.000 --> 0:17:39.120 And I've spent so many years and spent so much 0:17:39.200 --> 0:17:42.200 money trying to avoid going to the minivan. I get 0:17:42.200 --> 0:17:45.240 an SUV that functions like a minivan but still looks tough, 0:17:45.680 --> 0:17:47.440 and I feel like I've been wasting. 0:17:47.560 --> 0:17:50.320 That cash because this is a pretty nice ride. 0:17:50.359 --> 0:17:52.640 I mean, it's not amazing, you know, but it's got 0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:57.800 the low load floor, it's kind of smooth sailing with 0:17:57.840 --> 0:17:58.679 the hybrid engine. 0:17:58.720 --> 0:17:59.440 It's pretty good. 0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:02.199 See there he goes. Yeah, we were twenty years we 0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:05.479 had the minivan thing. Now no Moss, Katerina, thank you 0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:06.400 so much for joining us. 0:18:07.760 --> 0:18:11.639 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 0:18:11.720 --> 0:18:14.399 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car playing and 0:18:14.520 --> 0:18:17.439 broud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand 0:18:17.480 --> 0:18:21.800 wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:24.919 John Tucker sitting in for Alex Steel on Paul Sweeney 0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:26.960 Your live here in our Bloomberg and Arctic Broker studio. 0:18:27.000 --> 0:18:29.800 We are streaming live on YouTube as well. 0:18:29.840 --> 0:18:32.879 What does Donald Trump and the White House mean for 0:18:33.240 --> 0:18:36.560 big tech? Dan ives Join says he's managing director and 0:18:36.600 --> 0:18:39.640 senior equity analysts for web Bush Securities. Dan, I mean 0:18:40.440 --> 0:18:42.960 a lot of the questions for investors as released to 0:18:43.040 --> 0:18:45.439 big tech and the Trump administration is I mean, what 0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:47.160 does it mean for big tech writ large? But I'm 0:18:47.160 --> 0:18:51.080 want to start with Tesla because that's an industry that 0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:53.439 depends upon cooperation with the government. 0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:54.399 What do you think about Tesla? 0:18:54.560 --> 0:18:57.679 I mean from mosque betting on Trump, it might be 0:18:57.800 --> 0:19:00.520 the best poker move he ever made, That's right, and 0:19:01.000 --> 0:19:05.560 when you think about now, this is gonna really catalyze 0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:09.600 autonomous full self driving. A lot of the regulatory issues 0:19:09.920 --> 0:19:12.879 that Tessa's been dealing with, I think essentially Mussim go 0:19:12.920 --> 0:19:17.240 out the window here, Tariffs get pulled, which is negative 0:19:17.240 --> 0:19:20.080 for the ev industreet bullish for Tessa. Look, if you're 0:19:20.080 --> 0:19:25.159 a Tessa's shareholder, for Trump getting in is basically a 0:19:25.240 --> 0:19:28.600 Champagne moment, and I believe starts to unlock. We've told 0:19:28.680 --> 0:19:33.400 out on the show the trillion dollars of AI valuation 0:19:34.240 --> 0:19:37.119 now starting to get unlocked with Trump in the White House. 0:19:37.280 --> 0:19:39.800 Yeah, just because of the jump in the stock. Yes 0:19:39.840 --> 0:19:42.040 that Elon Mussey had a twenty six and a half 0:19:42.080 --> 0:19:46.520 billion dollars made back to Yeah, I guess it was 0:19:46.520 --> 0:19:50.120 a good trade. Can we talk regulation? What's the regulatory 0:19:50.240 --> 0:19:53.200 landscape gonna look like? What does that mean for tech? 0:19:53.240 --> 0:19:54.199 How do you gain that right now? 0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:57.960 But I think the biggest take any horror movie you want, 0:19:58.080 --> 0:20:02.119 that's really been what Kansman to tech tech. So so 0:20:02.119 --> 0:20:04.560 when you look at con of the FTC has really 0:20:04.600 --> 0:20:07.080 been that nightmare for big tech in terms of M 0:20:07.160 --> 0:20:10.720 and A deals, anything they do. And that's really that's 0:20:10.760 --> 0:20:13.520 been an issue that's been overhanging a lot of these stocks, 0:20:13.359 --> 0:20:16.280 not just Google, Apple and some others. I think the 0:20:16.359 --> 0:20:19.360 view is heavy view that she's gone at the FTC 0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:24.160 and that ultimately will let a much more friendly deal 0:20:24.320 --> 0:20:25.400 environment for tech. 0:20:25.520 --> 0:20:28.560 But doesn't that doesn't pertain to Europe though, what's uh 0:20:28.760 --> 0:20:29.280 or does. 0:20:29.119 --> 0:20:31.760 It sure now? And you're a big tech I mean 0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:34.760 they're used to find almost like cups of coffee there, 0:20:34.800 --> 0:20:37.719 so that's always they're always gonna get that from Brussels. 0:20:38.000 --> 0:20:40.720 But the big issue has been you know, Winter Coon 0:20:41.119 --> 0:20:44.640 from FTC has really been the big issue with her 0:20:44.920 --> 0:20:48.320 looking to be out. That's another part of this rally 0:20:48.359 --> 0:20:50.040 here because I think what it's gonna do is gonna 0:20:50.040 --> 0:20:52.520 be a tidal wave of M and A. You're gonna 0:20:52.520 --> 0:20:55.439 see big tech. You still have DJ and some other issues, 0:20:55.480 --> 0:20:58.200 but you see them more aggressive from an AI perspective, 0:20:58.880 --> 0:21:01.240 and and this is really what tack invessors want to see, 0:21:01.480 --> 0:21:03.560 less regulatory. And then we got to see a red 0:21:03.600 --> 0:21:06.680 sweep you combo that you know, that's something that's a 0:21:06.880 --> 0:21:10.639 that's a backdrop that's very very bullish for tech investors. 0:21:10.880 --> 0:21:14.359 There's been some comments from Trump and from President elect 0:21:15.160 --> 0:21:18.800 Vice President elect jd Vance negative towards maybe some social 0:21:18.840 --> 0:21:19.960 media and tech in general. 0:21:19.960 --> 0:21:21.280 How do you take that into account? 0:21:21.359 --> 0:21:24.440 Yeah, I mean, look, they're not fans of Google meta. 0:21:24.800 --> 0:21:27.560 The irony is you look at TikTok Trump getting in 0:21:27.720 --> 0:21:30.879 basically means TikTok to they're not going to get banned, 0:21:30.880 --> 0:21:33.400 and I don't think anything changes from an ownership perspective. 0:21:33.480 --> 0:21:36.080 So with President look Trump in the White House, what 0:21:36.119 --> 0:21:37.000 does that mean for TikTok? 0:21:37.160 --> 0:21:39.879 So from a twilight zone, even though he started to 0:21:39.920 --> 0:21:43.480 get the actual looking to get TikTok banned, here we 0:21:43.600 --> 0:21:47.480 are one eighty, it's the opposite actually not supporting a 0:21:47.520 --> 0:21:50.760 TikTok ban. So now TikTok doesn't get banned. 0:21:51.119 --> 0:21:51.280 Now. 0:21:51.400 --> 0:21:54.160 Part of that is because Trump is very negative towards 0:21:54.240 --> 0:21:56.359 Google Meta. So when you think about it from a 0:21:56.400 --> 0:21:58.920 tech perspective and you started a whittling the stocks yesterday, 0:21:59.200 --> 0:22:02.119 i'd expect that little twelve round battle that they'll be 0:22:02.160 --> 0:22:05.440 going through with Trump. In terms of some of the 0:22:05.440 --> 0:22:08.919 the issues around you know, what we's on social media 0:22:09.080 --> 0:22:12.959 section two thirty, which has obviously been the shield. So 0:22:13.000 --> 0:22:16.960 section two thirty is really what shields social media comingies legally, 0:22:18.600 --> 0:22:21.480 you know, and that's been a big contentious issue. The 0:22:21.560 --> 0:22:23.600 view is if Trump comes in, what happens to section 0:22:23.640 --> 0:22:26.720 two thirty. I don't think anything happens per se, But 0:22:26.760 --> 0:22:29.040 when you look at some of the risk quote unquote 0:22:29.040 --> 0:22:32.240 in terms of big tech, definitely on social media, and 0:22:32.280 --> 0:22:34.880 then clearly on the China issue in terms of He'll 0:22:34.920 --> 0:22:37.439 be a lot of harsher on tariffs. But now the 0:22:37.520 --> 0:22:41.680 difference is who's to his right as the whisper. It's Musk, 0:22:42.280 --> 0:22:44.840 So Musk is gonna be able I think, and the 0:22:44.920 --> 0:22:48.439 view is on the street navigate these issues when it 0:22:48.440 --> 0:22:52.880 comes to China tariffs, AI with now being the sort 0:22:52.920 --> 0:22:53.520