1 00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:13,360 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Action Network. 2 00:00:13,360 --> 00:00:18,320 Speaker 1: I'm Chad Millman. Listen. We are in full on college 3 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:23,640 Speaker 1: basketball mode. We have the conference tournaments happening this week. 4 00:00:23,960 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 1: We have the incentil A tournament happening in about ten days. 5 00:00:29,720 --> 00:00:31,040 Speaker 1: I'd love to tell you that Scooch is going to 6 00:00:31,080 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 1: be on the podcast, but he's not because while we 7 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: had a brief reunion last week, uh, he is traveling 8 00:00:36,760 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 1: again this week and can I join. I happen to 9 00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:44,559 Speaker 1: think if we could do any better than Scooch, it 10 00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:51,360 Speaker 1: would be with better um bum bum bum bum bum stucky. 11 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 1: So I'm just I'm just a default choice, the backup plan. Well, 12 00:00:56,400 --> 00:00:59,319 Speaker 1: the plan was have you both, and then it makes 13 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: me feel a little bit Scooch bailed. You were going 14 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 1: to be sort of to bring the depth and insight, 15 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:09,160 Speaker 1: and Scooch was going to bring the chuckles. Okay, well 16 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 1: maybe I'll try to bring a few chuckles in there. 17 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 1: You don't sound like you're committed to that idea now, 18 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 1: you just sound like, well, let me let me warm 19 00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:18,560 Speaker 1: up a little bit. Dude. You've been working since like 20 00:01:19,000 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 1: two o'clock this morning. You've already done. I'll take that 21 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:24,600 Speaker 1: bet on ESPM plus. I know you're putting together some 22 00:01:24,640 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 1: college basketball tournament uh conference previews right now, like you're 23 00:01:29,720 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 1: doing a podcast. How much warmer do you have to be? 24 00:01:32,760 --> 00:01:34,960 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm pretty warm. I just mean for the 25 00:01:35,000 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 1: flow of this. I mean I've also recorded about I 26 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:40,560 Speaker 1: think nine podcast episodes in the last two nights, so 27 00:01:40,640 --> 00:01:44,240 Speaker 1: that's true. Uh yeah, it's been a crazy week, but 28 00:01:44,319 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 1: it's it's March. There's zero complaints of mine. This is 29 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 1: a good time to remind people. This is a good 30 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 1: time to remind people that, like, honestly, guy, one of 31 00:01:51,760 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 1: my favorite podcasts is the Action Network Colleges podcast that 32 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:58,400 Speaker 1: you are doing with Michael Mike Randall and Eli Herskovich 33 00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:02,560 Speaker 1: and uh College Wilson And I loved this, and I 34 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:04,640 Speaker 1: tweeted this out the other day when I was listening 35 00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 1: to it, I think on Friday or Saturday, Like, you 36 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:09,680 Speaker 1: opened the podcast, and you're getting so good at hosting 37 00:02:09,680 --> 00:02:13,800 Speaker 1: these podcasts, but you opened the podcast with the four 38 00:02:13,880 --> 00:02:17,720 Speaker 1: of you, All four of you are on the Jacksonville 39 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 1: State U T. Martin game. And if people remember the 40 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:23,119 Speaker 1: last time you're on the podcast a couple of weeks ago, 41 00:02:23,639 --> 00:02:27,680 Speaker 1: I like, randomly chose Jacksonville State from the Ken Palm rankings. 42 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:30,240 Speaker 1: They were a hundred and nine, and I'm like, give 43 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 1: me something about Jacksonville State, and you had the entire 44 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 1: lineup broken down and sort of their chances to make 45 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 1: the tournament and why you like them, And in that game, 46 00:02:41,919 --> 00:02:45,560 Speaker 1: I think you bet jack State. Now we actually we 47 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 1: we all had Tennessee Martin plus ten, but we had 48 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:52,959 Speaker 1: Jacksonville State to win the conference tournament. And I'm sort 49 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:54,680 Speaker 1: of disappointed that you brought it up. So I'm trying 50 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:58,320 Speaker 1: to move on from that. They got absolutely robbed, robbed 51 00:02:58,440 --> 00:03:01,320 Speaker 1: against Murray State, who beat them by two. There was 52 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:04,560 Speaker 1: made up, flagrant technicals. I mean there's people, I mean, 53 00:03:04,919 --> 00:03:07,360 Speaker 1: unbiased people were complaining about it on Twitter. That's how 54 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 1: I always know if the reps are bad, um, because 55 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:12,079 Speaker 1: it's easy to have a lens where you're like this, 56 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:15,679 Speaker 1: this call screwed me. But I saw, you know, from 57 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:19,320 Speaker 1: your old world, Stanford Stephen van Pelt were tweeting like 58 00:03:19,360 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 1: this is just hard to change the whole game. Um, 59 00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:24,840 Speaker 1: So I was I was mixed. I really thought Jacksonville 60 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 1: State had a shot and I wanted to see them 61 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:28,919 Speaker 1: in the tournament. But it was not meant to be. 62 00:03:29,120 --> 00:03:32,280 Speaker 1: Do you feel like, um, there are more people in 63 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:34,800 Speaker 1: the market on teams like Jacksonville State than there ever 64 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 1: have been. Yeah, I mean it's and it's only gonna 65 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 1: get it's only growing. Um. So just I mean what, 66 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:48,640 Speaker 1: there's a data revolution in college basketball and it's creating 67 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:54,680 Speaker 1: more efficient lines than we've ever seen, especially with totals. Um, 68 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 1: and it's only going to get more efficient over time. 69 00:03:58,600 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 1: Explain to me what you mean by a revolution. I 70 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:05,360 Speaker 1: mean there's just having access to something, you know, the 71 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 1: general public for you know, a really small fee, having 72 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:13,440 Speaker 1: access to something like ken Pop, having access to the 73 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 1: Action network and the info that we give out. I mean, 74 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:19,840 Speaker 1: these are things that the general public used to not 75 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 1: even pay attention to. It was, Oh, Duke is playing 76 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:27,760 Speaker 1: this team, and okay, I'm betting Duke. They're really good 77 00:04:27,800 --> 00:04:30,680 Speaker 1: and have NBA players. Well, now people are you know, 78 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:35,040 Speaker 1: starting to understand efficiencies. Uh, and you know, certain strengths 79 00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 1: and weaknesses of certain teams. And you know, I hear 80 00:04:37,560 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 1: I hear people that have bet their whole lives that 81 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: never would say, you know, I think the line is 82 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:46,960 Speaker 1: going to be this or this line is too high 83 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:49,960 Speaker 1: because of this that it's just a new lexicon out 84 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 1: of them that I never heard them talk like that, 85 00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:55,479 Speaker 1: And uh, I think it's a good thing that we 86 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:59,160 Speaker 1: have more informed, more informed betting public. It's what we're 87 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 1: ultimately try thing to do at the Action Network. But 88 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:04,960 Speaker 1: on the flip side, it makes I think, a more 89 00:05:04,960 --> 00:05:07,600 Speaker 1: efficient market and it's you know, it becomes a little 90 00:05:07,640 --> 00:05:10,280 Speaker 1: more difficult to back contract, so it's not like the 91 00:05:10,320 --> 00:05:13,320 Speaker 1: early two thousands when you could have a total that 92 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:18,279 Speaker 1: would come out in November and it would move sometimes 93 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:20,080 Speaker 1: if a certain team had a new coaching change and 94 00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 1: they were going to run instead of grind it like 95 00:05:22,720 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 1: they did the year before. But all of that information 96 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:27,880 Speaker 1: is now out there and it's just such a more 97 00:05:27,920 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 1: efficient market. In college basketball. By the way, you can 98 00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:34,080 Speaker 1: get everything stuck he's talking about if you download the 99 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:37,440 Speaker 1: Action Network Gap. It's free. It's so interesting that you 100 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 1: talk about this data revolution, because it feels like it's 101 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 1: been happening for about ten years, and it feels like 102 00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 1: it started with Ken Palm, Like everybody getting into Ken 103 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:52,440 Speaker 1: Palm and understanding the value of Ken Palm and applying 104 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:57,160 Speaker 1: so many different metrics, especially efficiency metrics and sort of 105 00:05:57,160 --> 00:06:01,840 Speaker 1: offensive rating metrics and points per possession metrics that had 106 00:06:01,960 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 1: never been thought of in college basketball. Yeah, I mean 107 00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 1: a perfect example is you'll have these teams that are 108 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:16,040 Speaker 1: really underperforming, or you know, on the flip side, they're overperforming, 109 00:06:16,080 --> 00:06:19,279 Speaker 1: they're getting a little lucky. And in the past, you 110 00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:22,479 Speaker 1: know those teams. You know, say a team was underperforming 111 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:26,800 Speaker 1: consistently over the first two months of the season, because 112 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:30,240 Speaker 1: they were underperforming, you could generally get value in that 113 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:32,800 Speaker 1: team just by starting to back them. But a lot 114 00:06:32,880 --> 00:06:37,240 Speaker 1: of these underlying metrics are capturing you know, they're true performance, 115 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:38,560 Speaker 1: and you can look at I mean, you can look 116 00:06:38,600 --> 00:06:41,280 Speaker 1: at things like a luck metric, but you can look 117 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:45,039 Speaker 1: at some of their underlying adjusted efficiencies and you can 118 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:49,160 Speaker 1: and I think the market is understanding how really good 119 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:52,960 Speaker 1: or really bad certain teams are, regardless of what they're 120 00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 1: doing on the court, and how lucky you're unlucky they're 121 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:59,360 Speaker 1: they're performing. So you've been gambling in college basketball since 122 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:03,200 Speaker 1: you were like six, result and when you first started 123 00:07:03,240 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 1: gambling to now, how much has the idea of this 124 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 1: data changed the way you handicap? Well, I mean, I've 125 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:18,080 Speaker 1: always been a a person that relies on data. Now 126 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:19,960 Speaker 1: and there's a lot more out there that I have 127 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:23,240 Speaker 1: access to, which is great. But I've always been a 128 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 1: person that, you know, combines kind of art and science. 129 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 1: So I'm in college basketball. I love situational angles. I mean, 130 00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:34,800 Speaker 1: these are college kids that you're betting on. There are 131 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 1: letdown spots. There are hangovers and letdowns and sandwiches. Now, 132 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:43,080 Speaker 1: it's not just and that's what I always tell people. 133 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:46,000 Speaker 1: You know, I could train my little sister to pick 134 00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:49,559 Speaker 1: these spots out, but it's a little it's a little 135 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:51,720 Speaker 1: more complicated, and you have to have a feel for it. 136 00:07:51,800 --> 00:07:54,640 Speaker 1: You have to watch these teams and then matchups come 137 00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 1: into play as well, because if a certain matchup is 138 00:07:57,520 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 1: really bad for a team, that could override the spot. 139 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 1: But I have always thought of myself as a cover 140 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 1: that kind of combines the two worlds of the you know, 141 00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 1: the math flash science part of it and the art. 142 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:13,559 Speaker 1: And I think if you can do that successfully, um 143 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:15,880 Speaker 1: combined in those two worlds, I think that's how you 144 00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 1: can become, you know, the most complete college basketball handicapper. 145 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:24,920 Speaker 1: Because situational spots, they do matter in college basketball. I 146 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:27,600 Speaker 1: will argue that to the grave. Well, I I agree, 147 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:32,200 Speaker 1: actually might be NBA is really interesting, right because NBA 148 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 1: you can almost you can you know, for lack of 149 00:08:36,240 --> 00:08:39,320 Speaker 1: a better term, you can predict the situational spot college 150 00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:41,880 Speaker 1: basketball situational spots. And you had a great story this 151 00:08:41,920 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 1: past weekend about six situational spots that you were looking at. 152 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 1: So now I have two questions for you. Uh, let 153 00:08:49,120 --> 00:08:50,280 Speaker 1: me do the first one. I want to get the 154 00:08:50,320 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: situational spots. I'm gonna I'm gonna make a note of 155 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:56,080 Speaker 1: that right now. Um, how would you find data and 156 00:08:56,120 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 1: what data data madage matter to you before sort of 157 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:04,200 Speaker 1: the internet democratized everything. Well, I mean I would have 158 00:09:04,240 --> 00:09:07,200 Speaker 1: to do a lot of the data myself. Um, so 159 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:09,959 Speaker 1: it was maintaining and I don't have to do is 160 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:13,200 Speaker 1: much work in that regard now because of sites like 161 00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 1: kem pom. But you know the hardest part would be 162 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:21,680 Speaker 1: taking You're taking numbers like you know, number of points, 163 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:24,839 Speaker 1: number of possessions, you're getting points per possession on both sides, 164 00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 1: and then removing garbage time and you I would literally 165 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:34,800 Speaker 1: have to go through manually and do that. So what 166 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 1: is garbage time in college basketball? Means generally when the 167 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 1: starters come out, but people have different parameters with the 168 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:45,320 Speaker 1: lead have to be. But back way back in the day, 169 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:48,640 Speaker 1: you would have to go through manually and do that. 170 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:51,480 Speaker 1: Now there's still a lot of that work that does 171 00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:55,680 Speaker 1: get done by betters um serious betters of of removing 172 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:57,960 Speaker 1: those garbage time stats. There are some sites out there 173 00:09:57,960 --> 00:09:59,880 Speaker 1: that do it, but everyone does it a little bit different. 174 00:10:00,760 --> 00:10:03,400 Speaker 1: The same thing applies to football as well. You want 175 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 1: to take out you know, those statistics when a team 176 00:10:06,920 --> 00:10:09,680 Speaker 1: is up twenty one and they're just running the ball 177 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:12,920 Speaker 1: with backups at the end, to really get their true performance, 178 00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:15,200 Speaker 1: but it was just a lot of manual work, and 179 00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:18,280 Speaker 1: you didn't because you were only I was only a 180 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 1: one man operation. I didn't have nowhere near as many 181 00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 1: UH data and variables as I do have access to today. 182 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:31,320 Speaker 1: But then again, it was easier to beck college basketball 183 00:10:31,320 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 1: back then, so you know, it's both sides of the coin. 184 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 1: It was easy to douce he didn't need as much data, 185 00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:40,959 Speaker 1: but now it's becoming more efficient. But the access to 186 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 1: data is crazy. When did you see it really become hard? 187 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 1: Like what year? Did it all of a sudden, We're like, boy, 188 00:10:49,200 --> 00:10:51,319 Speaker 1: these advantage I used to have, they're kind of disappearing. 189 00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:58,679 Speaker 1: I would say probably two thousand tennis is when I 190 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 1: started to have those thoughts and it's just it seems 191 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 1: like it's just a growing force. Um. But yeah, I 192 00:11:07,240 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 1: mean I would say, you know, maybe about seventy nine 193 00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 1: years ago, UM is when I first you know, had 194 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:18,840 Speaker 1: that aha moment like well well this is everything is changing, 195 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 1: um And yeah, you're I think you're right. A lot 196 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:28,560 Speaker 1: of it started with ken Balm. You ruined it for everybody. Yeah, 197 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 1: I mean there was times I remember when I was 198 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:35,040 Speaker 1: betting on college basketball in like high school. I remember 199 00:11:35,080 --> 00:11:38,400 Speaker 1: all being on the forums and this is early two 200 00:11:38,440 --> 00:11:44,640 Speaker 1: thousand's when you could just blindly take you know, a 201 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 1: random team on a Tuesday night that was minus two, 202 00:11:48,559 --> 00:11:51,160 Speaker 1: and you know, they would they would move they say 203 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 1: they were plus two, they would move to minus one. 204 00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:56,400 Speaker 1: And you could blindly follow these line moves and reverse 205 00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:59,120 Speaker 1: line moves in college basketball they would You could have 206 00:11:59,160 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 1: all these people that went tout based on it, um. 207 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 1: But there was just a lot of simple things that 208 00:12:04,040 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 1: you do, especially totals. Uh. There was a lot of 209 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:10,240 Speaker 1: inefficiencies in the college basket market that don't exist today. Well, 210 00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 1: certainly I remember, like you're talking about early two thousands, 211 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:15,280 Speaker 1: that's when I was out in Vegas writing The Odds, 212 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:17,559 Speaker 1: my best selling book about guys who bet on sports 213 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 1: for a living, and you know, following Allan Boston, and 214 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:25,280 Speaker 1: you know he had it just wasn't that hard to 215 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:28,400 Speaker 1: get money down, and like he didn't have to chase 216 00:12:28,480 --> 00:12:30,800 Speaker 1: numbers very hard. Like he'd see a number, he'd get 217 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:35,640 Speaker 1: it really quickly. And he kept everything in a spiral 218 00:12:35,720 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 1: bound notebook on um white, three whole punch lined paper. Um, 219 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:45,320 Speaker 1: I'm not sorry, I'm sorry, not spiral bound, a three 220 00:12:45,320 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 1: whole punch notebook like one of those big binders. And 221 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 1: he would just like have reams and reams of data 222 00:12:50,520 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 1: from that he carries over from year to year on 223 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:58,760 Speaker 1: every single team. Uh, that's how he would make his numbers. Yep. Yeah, 224 00:12:58,760 --> 00:13:00,840 Speaker 1: I mean I have plenty of notebook myself. Philt up. 225 00:13:00,840 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 1: I still love writing. I mean it's not as efficient, 226 00:13:03,160 --> 00:13:06,320 Speaker 1: but I still love taking a notebook and I will 227 00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 1: take all of my conference tournament odds in there. But yeah, 228 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:13,480 Speaker 1: I mean I I remember back this is mid to 229 00:13:13,559 --> 00:13:18,199 Speaker 1: late two thousand's when on Saturday morning, for about an 230 00:13:18,200 --> 00:13:22,880 Speaker 1: hour or two, I would have conversations with Mr Boston 231 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:27,200 Speaker 1: about the college basketball card that day. How did you 232 00:13:27,200 --> 00:13:31,600 Speaker 1: get in touch with Boston? Uh? Covers dot com forms 233 00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:37,400 Speaker 1: and a mutual friend of mine on the forums and 234 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:41,320 Speaker 1: his and uh, you know, he he said, look, you guys, 235 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:44,040 Speaker 1: you guys should talk about college basketball. Someone that followed 236 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 1: me religiously, and yeah, we just we started talking college basketball. 237 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:52,680 Speaker 1: And you'll you'll see Boston have some rants on Twitter 238 00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:54,840 Speaker 1: about the college basketball market because one of the things 239 00:13:54,840 --> 00:13:58,040 Speaker 1: that they they do that I mean that the off 240 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 1: shores are doing now is you'll don't take really small 241 00:14:03,920 --> 00:14:06,800 Speaker 1: action the night, you know, as soon as they put 242 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:09,480 Speaker 1: the lines out and then to shape the lines, and 243 00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 1: you know, people will get frustrated that these you know, 244 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:15,320 Speaker 1: some sharper groups will go out and get a number 245 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:18,080 Speaker 1: but hit it when the limits are really low and 246 00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:21,400 Speaker 1: then really sucking the value out for others. But it's 247 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 1: if you don't do that, someone else is going to 248 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 1: do it. That's the argument. Is there a game? Like 249 00:14:27,440 --> 00:14:29,440 Speaker 1: I had no idea. You and I have never talked 250 00:14:29,440 --> 00:14:31,680 Speaker 1: about this. We have never talked about the fact that, 251 00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:35,640 Speaker 1: like you had a relationship with Alan Boston. Yeah, I 252 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:38,720 Speaker 1: mean it was purely like, hey, let's talk about the 253 00:14:38,720 --> 00:14:41,360 Speaker 1: college basketball card today. Do you like this? Why do 254 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:45,520 Speaker 1: you like this? Do you like that? Um, Saturday mornings 255 00:14:45,600 --> 00:14:51,760 Speaker 1: during the the huge enormous hundred and fifty game slates 256 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:56,120 Speaker 1: that can be very overwhelming when your Calvin college basketball. 257 00:14:56,120 --> 00:14:58,200 Speaker 1: I mean, that's I think that's the hardest thing to 258 00:14:58,240 --> 00:14:59,920 Speaker 1: do is take a look at a Saturday card, go 259 00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:01,880 Speaker 1: through it all and make sure you don't miss anything, 260 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 1: and then try and narrow down what you're going to bet, 261 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:07,040 Speaker 1: because there's ultimately going to be things that you regret 262 00:15:07,120 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 1: that you didn't bet, but you have to just be 263 00:15:10,080 --> 00:15:14,240 Speaker 1: fine with it. Yeah. I remember sitting on couches, like 264 00:15:14,400 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 1: in his house, watching him just try to juggle every 265 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 1: single game that's coming on five dimes, ten dimes, twenty times, 266 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:25,040 Speaker 1: here's a halftime, you know, like putting money back into play. 267 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:27,560 Speaker 1: The amount of flow that was going in and out 268 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:33,120 Speaker 1: of his house was insanity. That's crazy. It was super 269 00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:36,240 Speaker 1: It was super, super fun. All Right. The other thing 270 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 1: I want to ask you about you mentioned something really 271 00:15:37,880 --> 00:15:40,880 Speaker 1: interesting situational spots. You had a great story this past 272 00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 1: weekend around situational spots. You just talked about how that 273 00:15:45,440 --> 00:15:52,560 Speaker 1: is um so vital in handicapping college basketball. Your situational 274 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 1: spots this past weekend. You accurately predicted I think five 275 00:15:56,160 --> 00:16:01,400 Speaker 1: of the six. Um, if I'm not mistaken, tell me 276 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:03,600 Speaker 1: what you're looking for in a situational spot, and does 277 00:16:03,680 --> 00:16:07,560 Speaker 1: anything apply to conference or incidably tournament? Now, yeah, I 278 00:16:07,560 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 1: mean they finished up. It was something I did, you know, 279 00:16:09,680 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 1: every once in a while during the weekdays and then 280 00:16:11,360 --> 00:16:15,000 Speaker 1: always every Saturday. I think they finished up forty five 281 00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:20,040 Speaker 1: and thirty this year. Um, but they are now pretty 282 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 1: much obsolete. It's you know, and maybe every once in 283 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:27,400 Speaker 1: a while have I'll have something in the conference tournament 284 00:16:27,400 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 1: where some team you know, lost twice in heartbreaking fashion 285 00:16:32,600 --> 00:16:36,480 Speaker 1: and really once the rematch or maybe something like Nevada 286 00:16:36,640 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 1: the way if they get a rematch or a third 287 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 1: game against Utah State in the Mountain West Final. I mean, 288 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 1: this is a Nevada team that wants you toss a 289 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:47,560 Speaker 1: bad day. I mean, you had Jordan Caroline punching the 290 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:51,800 Speaker 1: fire extinguisher. You know, fans apparently we're saying things, coaches 291 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:54,120 Speaker 1: were saying things. They were fired up after that game, 292 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:57,320 Speaker 1: so maybe they come out with just a little extra fire. 293 00:16:57,360 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 1: I want to step on their throats. But at the 294 00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:03,600 Speaker 1: end of the day, these are postseason tournaments, so and 295 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:06,680 Speaker 1: you know, especially with the n c A Tournament, everyone 296 00:17:07,080 --> 00:17:10,399 Speaker 1: is going to give their best effort um, you know, 297 00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:13,840 Speaker 1: so one of you have to look at things like rest. 298 00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:17,000 Speaker 1: Uh and you know, teams that are playing four games 299 00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:19,800 Speaker 1: in four days and they might not have depth, but 300 00:17:19,880 --> 00:17:24,760 Speaker 1: those are I think more metrics based things than situational spots. 301 00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean after a pretty much last weekend 302 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:32,639 Speaker 1: last Saturday, it was really the last Hurrah, which was uh, 303 00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 1: sort of sada because the season flew by. But yeah, 304 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:39,520 Speaker 1: situations about don't really have much warrant moving forward. It 305 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:41,840 Speaker 1: is amazing how the season flew by. But I also 306 00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:45,760 Speaker 1: like this is something else the college basketball betters always 307 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:52,479 Speaker 1: talk about, like religiously getting best effort, you know, getting 308 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 1: max effort, as if anybody could figure out what that's 309 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 1: going to be for eight year old kids, do you 310 00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:02,119 Speaker 1: know what I mean? Like, tell me, explain to me 311 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:04,879 Speaker 1: how you know you're gonna get max effort at this 312 00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:09,280 Speaker 1: point versus another time. Obviously you know it's different in 313 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 1: the regular season, but tell me when you're looking for 314 00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 1: max effort versus when you're not. I mean, you don't 315 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:18,680 Speaker 1: know that's the thing when people will always say. My 316 00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 1: favorite is when people will point to a game where 317 00:18:21,760 --> 00:18:23,920 Speaker 1: I'm like, I like this situational spot, and then they'll 318 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:26,719 Speaker 1: watch it and say, well, look, that's that's that they 319 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,639 Speaker 1: got beat. Situation spots don't mean anything. It's just like 320 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 1: when you're capping games, you're not trying you know, if 321 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 1: you're just doing it from a pure numbers perspective, you're 322 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:39,120 Speaker 1: not trying to hit what I'm doing with my situational 323 00:18:40,080 --> 00:18:42,520 Speaker 1: with spots that I want to hit, you know, ideally 324 00:18:44,400 --> 00:18:46,639 Speaker 1: percent over time. So if I think I have an 325 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:50,399 Speaker 1: edge over a long period of time, um, then I'm 326 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:52,520 Speaker 1: gonna get it. There's gonna be times when the team 327 00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:55,199 Speaker 1: doesn't show up and you think they do. But again, 328 00:18:55,280 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 1: it's it's really understanding the schedule, understanding the team is 329 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:01,720 Speaker 1: really being in tune with and it's a lot of 330 00:19:01,720 --> 00:19:03,879 Speaker 1: that comes from watching a lot, but it's there's a 331 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:07,159 Speaker 1: there's an intuition part of it. There's it's it's not 332 00:19:07,240 --> 00:19:08,960 Speaker 1: pure science. It's a lot of it is art. I 333 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:14,080 Speaker 1: mean a perfect example was Seaton Hall this past weekend. 334 00:19:14,119 --> 00:19:17,160 Speaker 1: I love them versus Villanova because I mean the first 335 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:20,240 Speaker 1: time those two teams played Villanova was up I think 336 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:24,320 Speaker 1: forty five at one miles Pal had three points. I mean, 337 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:29,240 Speaker 1: that was absolutely their most embarrassing loss of the season. 338 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:32,199 Speaker 1: Now they're at home playing for the Attorney Lives, and 339 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:35,160 Speaker 1: you could see from the jump that team came up, 340 00:19:35,359 --> 00:19:39,040 Speaker 1: fired up on defense and was just there all of 341 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:42,879 Speaker 1: their energy. And that's ultimately all I want when I 342 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 1: bet these situational spots. But yeah, I mean there's no science. 343 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:49,960 Speaker 1: There's no formula to it, which will which will frustrate, 344 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:52,960 Speaker 1: which frustrates a lot of you know, pure math based 345 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:58,280 Speaker 1: handicappers that that will just say you're talking gibberish. But um, yeah, 346 00:19:58,320 --> 00:20:00,480 Speaker 1: there's no You have to be really in tune, watch 347 00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 1: a lot and and then a lot of it's just 348 00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:05,000 Speaker 1: part art and some people can get it and some 349 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 1: people can't. All right, so we're in conference tournaments. Everyone's 350 00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:12,280 Speaker 1: going to get going this week. Tell me what you're 351 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:14,119 Speaker 1: thinking right now? What are you looking at? If you 352 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:19,640 Speaker 1: had to prioritize your futures bets for conference tournaments? Ranked 353 00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:23,439 Speaker 1: them for me, Force ranked them. Well. I mean, so 354 00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:25,399 Speaker 1: a lot of what what I'll look to do is 355 00:20:25,760 --> 00:20:31,160 Speaker 1: I'll have a few lottery tickets and you know, I'll 356 00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,480 Speaker 1: take a shot on a team like a Penn State. 357 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:35,600 Speaker 1: I don't have too much invested in it, but a 358 00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:39,439 Speaker 1: Penn State at six one, they're playing as well as 359 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,480 Speaker 1: anyone in that conference. They're really a top thirty five 360 00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:45,200 Speaker 1: team in the country and they won't make the tournament. 361 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,600 Speaker 1: But this team is playing so well and I think 362 00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:51,400 Speaker 1: that they can make a potential run provide a headge opportunity. 363 00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 1: Same thing with Syracuse. They're always tough in a tournament 364 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,440 Speaker 1: setting there eighty to one. They're gonna play Duke after 365 00:20:57,760 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 1: a cupcake first game ions first game back, it might 366 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: be tough to assimilate them. It might have a little rust, 367 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:07,160 Speaker 1: do can't shoot the three, terrible zone offense. So I'll 368 00:21:07,160 --> 00:21:09,840 Speaker 1: have a couple of lottery picks. But what I really 369 00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,159 Speaker 1: like to look for and my biggest investments, and I 370 00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:15,680 Speaker 1: have a piece on my favorite conference tournament futures for 371 00:21:15,720 --> 00:21:18,760 Speaker 1: all the ones, there's eleven that start tomorrow. I like 372 00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:22,560 Speaker 1: to look for MS priced futures based on the implied outs, 373 00:21:22,600 --> 00:21:24,960 Speaker 1: and what I mean by that is look at the 374 00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:27,480 Speaker 1: The Big Twelve is a perfect example. You can find 375 00:21:28,200 --> 00:21:31,840 Speaker 1: Texas out there at twelve to one to win the 376 00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 1: Big Twelve. Tournament. They're gonna they play in the quarterfinals 377 00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:39,800 Speaker 1: against Kansas, and Kansas is out there at about plus 378 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:43,560 Speaker 1: three fifty. When those two teams play, it's going to 379 00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:46,280 Speaker 1: essentially be a coin flip. I mean, the line will 380 00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:49,960 Speaker 1: probably be Kansas minus one and a half minus two, 381 00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,960 Speaker 1: but Kansas is plus three fifty in Texas is twelve 382 00:21:54,040 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 1: the one that's outrageous. It really should be Kansas six 383 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:58,560 Speaker 1: to one, Texas seven one. There's a couple of things 384 00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:02,760 Speaker 1: driving that Kansas name recognition, you know, their success in 385 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 1: the Big Twelve. A lot of people always want to 386 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 1: bet Kansas to win the Big Twelve. It just isn't 387 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,960 Speaker 1: the same team. I mean, they have two regulation wins 388 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:14,520 Speaker 1: all season long on the road to One of them 389 00:22:14,560 --> 00:22:16,399 Speaker 1: was at Oklahoma State, who had a three and a 390 00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 1: wide open three two tie at the end of the game, 391 00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,800 Speaker 1: and the other one was against against Baylor. That's it. 392 00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:25,280 Speaker 1: This is not your older brother's Kansas team. And Texas 393 00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:27,639 Speaker 1: had a huge slide to end the year. They were 394 00:22:27,640 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 1: one in four in their last five. But over those 395 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 1: five games, Carlin Woach was Karin Roach excuse me, was suspended. 396 00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 1: He's back now for the Big Twelve tournament. He's their 397 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 1: leading score average about fifteen a game. They have about 398 00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,040 Speaker 1: six other guys at average between eight and ten, but 399 00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:46,720 Speaker 1: they have no real guy who could take over and 400 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,880 Speaker 1: shoulder that score that they need. Roach leads their teams 401 00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:53,440 Speaker 1: and steals. They're a completely different team with roach back. 402 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:55,960 Speaker 1: So there is just a ton of value with Texas 403 00:22:55,960 --> 00:22:58,680 Speaker 1: based on this market assumption that Kansas is going to 404 00:22:58,720 --> 00:23:01,160 Speaker 1: beat them. But that's basically a win flip game. So 405 00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:03,679 Speaker 1: Texas is one of my favorite ones at twelve to one. Now, 406 00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:05,520 Speaker 1: they could go out and get beat by Kansas because 407 00:23:05,520 --> 00:23:07,840 Speaker 1: it's a coin flip game, but at twelve the one, 408 00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:09,840 Speaker 1: I'm willing to take a shot on them. That's such 409 00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:15,479 Speaker 1: a great stat to regulation wins during the regular season 410 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:18,600 Speaker 1: on the road all year, and the only other one 411 00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:22,520 Speaker 1: was at TCU and overtime UM and that Baylor game was, 412 00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:24,840 Speaker 1: you know, the game after Baylor lost one of their 413 00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 1: best players in Tristan Clark. But they've just been a 414 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:29,480 Speaker 1: horror show on the road away from Martins. They're still 415 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:32,720 Speaker 1: tough as nails and Allen Field House, but I mean, 416 00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:35,680 Speaker 1: just look at some of the splits. I mean, they 417 00:23:35,800 --> 00:23:39,240 Speaker 1: would beat Kansas State at home easily, but lose that. 418 00:23:39,400 --> 00:23:42,719 Speaker 1: Kansas State. They beat Texas Tech at home easily and 419 00:23:42,760 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 1: lost by but I don't even know sixty and Lubbock. 420 00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 1: This team is so young and they're they're just they're 421 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:53,520 Speaker 1: away from Allen Field House. They are so vulnerable. I 422 00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:55,320 Speaker 1: actually think Texas is going to get them in the 423 00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:58,119 Speaker 1: first round. But it's again, it's just a coin flip. 424 00:23:58,119 --> 00:23:59,920 Speaker 1: And the difference in the price twelve the one of 425 00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,359 Speaker 1: three to one. It's crazy, all right, So that's one, 426 00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:08,000 Speaker 1: give me another. I also think the pack twelve offers 427 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:12,520 Speaker 1: some value. Uh with Oregon. Oregon, you can find them 428 00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:15,399 Speaker 1: six seven to one. Thing is they're gonna have to 429 00:24:15,400 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 1: win four games in four days. But their first games 430 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:22,000 Speaker 1: against Washington State, who's quit, they're done. It's gonna be 431 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 1: an easy win for them. And this is a team 432 00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,120 Speaker 1: that's really coming on at the end of the year. 433 00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,359 Speaker 1: They've dealt with a ton all year long. So they 434 00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,680 Speaker 1: had Bowl Boll who was their big, their seven foot 435 00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:34,480 Speaker 1: big man who averaged twenty one and nine. He went 436 00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:38,000 Speaker 1: out for the year in mid December. They had you know, 437 00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:40,240 Speaker 1: Louis King was out for a while, Wootten was out 438 00:24:40,240 --> 00:24:42,280 Speaker 1: for a while, so they just had a lot. We're 439 00:24:42,320 --> 00:24:45,639 Speaker 1: in flux all year long, but now they're finally starting 440 00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:49,240 Speaker 1: to get an identity play together the end of the 441 00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:51,040 Speaker 1: year on a three game winning streak, including a win 442 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:54,719 Speaker 1: at Washington. And you know, Dan Alman is just a 443 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:59,240 Speaker 1: great coach with especially in the tournament setting. He's constantly 444 00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:02,160 Speaker 1: changing his d senses. They're one of about twenty five 445 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:07,680 Speaker 1: teams that will throw in a zone over the time, 446 00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,400 Speaker 1: and they'll throw a lot of minient man and they'll 447 00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 1: even press a quarter of the time. So they just 448 00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 1: keep they keep teams off balance, which is tough in 449 00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:18,520 Speaker 1: a tournament setting. Uh, this team is really coming on. 450 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:22,199 Speaker 1: It's just a wide open pack twelve. I think Washington 451 00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,159 Speaker 1: is the most dangerous team in the n c A 452 00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:27,760 Speaker 1: tournament because of their zone. But these teams have all 453 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:31,720 Speaker 1: seen that Washington zone multiple times. Now. That's why I 454 00:25:31,720 --> 00:25:34,399 Speaker 1: think you're seeing Washington struggle down the line and in 455 00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:37,440 Speaker 1: a crazy pack twelve. I think Oregon is going to 456 00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,280 Speaker 1: make a run to the final here at least Washington 457 00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:44,400 Speaker 1: and Marquette, two teams that I was so high on 458 00:25:44,880 --> 00:25:48,600 Speaker 1: about a month ago. I bought future tickets on both 459 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:52,879 Speaker 1: of them. I bought future tickets like in a rush 460 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:56,560 Speaker 1: after listening to the first Action Network Colleges podcast of 461 00:25:56,600 --> 00:26:02,480 Speaker 1: the season with You and Eli and Mike and Colin Wilson. Um, 462 00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:07,800 Speaker 1: these teams are freaking crater. I think I have another 463 00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:11,680 Speaker 1: call coming in now. Listen. It's just a podcast. Why 464 00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:17,120 Speaker 1: don't you get it? The look what I'm saying is 465 00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:19,960 Speaker 1: is Washington and I've been preaching this. There is zero 466 00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,680 Speaker 1: reason to worry about Washington. Um there. I mean, unless 467 00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:25,120 Speaker 1: they don't get in the tournament, I don't think it's 468 00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:30,520 Speaker 1: gonna happen. But they're there. Syracuse West, that's who they are. 469 00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,800 Speaker 1: Their head coach was an assistant for under Bayond for 470 00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:36,960 Speaker 1: twenty years. He went out there and you know, and 471 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:41,560 Speaker 1: he installed the same exact two three zone, and they 472 00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:44,160 Speaker 1: do it actually more. They're the only team that runs 473 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,800 Speaker 1: own more than Syracuse this year, and they're actually doing 474 00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,520 Speaker 1: it with more effectiveness. But you'll see at the end 475 00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:51,840 Speaker 1: of the year during the regular season in the past 476 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,840 Speaker 1: where Syracuse struggles. I mean, this isn't a team that 477 00:26:54,920 --> 00:26:57,040 Speaker 1: gets a one seed a two seeds every year. But 478 00:26:57,080 --> 00:26:58,880 Speaker 1: then they get into the tournament and they're playing these 479 00:26:58,880 --> 00:27:01,920 Speaker 1: teams that haven't seen that zone with all of its length, 480 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:06,679 Speaker 1: which Washington has as well, and teams are lost in 481 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:08,800 Speaker 1: these foreign gyms that they're not used to playing in, 482 00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:11,480 Speaker 1: and so Washington is going to be the same exact 483 00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:14,719 Speaker 1: thing in Syracuse. Syracuse will be as just as dangerous 484 00:27:14,720 --> 00:27:16,479 Speaker 1: as they always are in the tournament when they get in, 485 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:19,040 Speaker 1: and you know, these teams will be around maybe a 486 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:22,000 Speaker 1: seven and eight seed. Uh, And they're just a team 487 00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:23,960 Speaker 1: you do not want to play because all they do 488 00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,320 Speaker 1: is play that zone. They have one of the best 489 00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:29,000 Speaker 1: defenders in the nation and table, they're one of the 490 00:27:29,040 --> 00:27:32,719 Speaker 1: most experienced teams in the nation. They're actually number one 491 00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,840 Speaker 1: in minutes continuity, which is a Ken Palm metric that 492 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:39,240 Speaker 1: looks at minutes played last year by all the players 493 00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:42,360 Speaker 1: on a team compared to this year, and they're over 494 00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:46,360 Speaker 1: the averages around fifty. So this team's played together a 495 00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:48,760 Speaker 1: ton that really experienced a lot of seniors, and they 496 00:27:48,800 --> 00:27:51,639 Speaker 1: have a unique scheme and it's that zone, and that 497 00:27:51,800 --> 00:27:54,360 Speaker 1: is what you look for in a team that can 498 00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:57,200 Speaker 1: make a run with a deep future. I mean, even 499 00:27:57,280 --> 00:28:00,879 Speaker 1: Baylor they made a couple of lead eight run because 500 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:04,080 Speaker 1: of their zone, and it's it's just these unique A 501 00:28:04,119 --> 00:28:06,679 Speaker 1: lot of times its zones that teams aren't used to 502 00:28:06,720 --> 00:28:10,720 Speaker 1: seeing can trip up anyone in the tournament. Marquette is 503 00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:14,320 Speaker 1: a different story. Marcus Howard is wearing down their their turnovers, 504 00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:19,240 Speaker 1: their defense has just been bad. I mean, I'm I'm 505 00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:21,960 Speaker 1: actually hoping that they get bounced early in the Big 506 00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:25,320 Speaker 1: East Tournament, get a week off, figure things out. Marcus 507 00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:28,200 Speaker 1: Howard can still take over game, go for fifty. They're 508 00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:31,080 Speaker 1: not dead in the water, but there's some worrying signs there. 509 00:28:31,440 --> 00:28:36,040 Speaker 1: What do I do with Murray State. I mean it's 510 00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:40,360 Speaker 1: I think that's I think you want to wait and see. 511 00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:41,880 Speaker 1: I don't think you want to buy a future on 512 00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:43,280 Speaker 1: them now. You want to wait and see what their 513 00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:46,160 Speaker 1: bracket looks like. But I'm not a buyer in in 514 00:28:46,240 --> 00:28:49,200 Speaker 1: Mary State. I mean you can look at a lot 515 00:28:49,240 --> 00:28:52,880 Speaker 1: of these teams historically in college, these mid majors, if 516 00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:54,320 Speaker 1: you look back at a lot of the teams that 517 00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:59,600 Speaker 1: made a deep runs, they're not generally driven by one 518 00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:02,400 Speaker 1: star player. And Mary stayed as a one man band. 519 00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:05,520 Speaker 1: I mean, it is Morant and that is pretty much it. 520 00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:07,800 Speaker 1: I mean there have been there have been mid majors 521 00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:11,000 Speaker 1: with NBA stars that never even make the n C 522 00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:14,520 Speaker 1: a tournament. Damian Lillard comes to mind, um, but you 523 00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:19,440 Speaker 1: don't really normally see just a one man team make 524 00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,920 Speaker 1: a deep run from a mid major in the n 525 00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:26,880 Speaker 1: c A tournament. Pretty easy to team against. They're gonna 526 00:29:26,920 --> 00:29:29,920 Speaker 1: get killed inside. I mean, if they play a really 527 00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:34,480 Speaker 1: guard heavy team, Morant can maybe win a couple of games, 528 00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:36,360 Speaker 1: but I think it's gonna be tough for Mary's State. 529 00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:39,520 Speaker 1: I'm not I'm not a buyer. I'm actually would be 530 00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:43,800 Speaker 1: more intrigued with Belmont and their motion offense if they 531 00:29:43,840 --> 00:29:46,560 Speaker 1: get in. I mean, there it's an outside shot for 532 00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:49,680 Speaker 1: an outlaw at large, but it's just Morant and that's it. 533 00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:54,920 Speaker 1: I mean, maybe he can go for and and pick 534 00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:56,280 Speaker 1: up a win or two, but I don't like their 535 00:29:56,360 --> 00:30:00,320 Speaker 1: chances to make a really deep run as a regular better, 536 00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:04,520 Speaker 1: as someone who could be described practically as a professional better. 537 00:30:05,880 --> 00:30:09,040 Speaker 1: I think the most polarizing team in all of college 538 00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:16,640 Speaker 1: basketball for betters for years decades has been Duke. Where 539 00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:19,560 Speaker 1: do you stand on Duke as a team to bet on? 540 00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:28,400 Speaker 1: I personally despise Duke basketball and the reason I do 541 00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:30,600 Speaker 1: and the reason I carried through and I don't let 542 00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:32,600 Speaker 1: it affect my handicap and I'll bet them at times, 543 00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:35,560 Speaker 1: so generally I would think that they tend to be 544 00:30:35,600 --> 00:30:40,080 Speaker 1: a little overvalued in spots. Their home court is fully 545 00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:43,320 Speaker 1: captured in the market. But the reason I hate Duke 546 00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 1: is the reason that I started betting. My dad is 547 00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:51,040 Speaker 1: a huge, huge Duke fan, and in the nineties, when 548 00:30:51,040 --> 00:30:55,160 Speaker 1: I was kid seven years old, eight years old, I 549 00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:59,120 Speaker 1: used to bet them twenty dollars that Duke would lose 550 00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:03,520 Speaker 1: every game. And it was the greatest betting scheme ever 551 00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:07,560 Speaker 1: because if Duke one and they would win almost every 552 00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:10,280 Speaker 1: game but one every year back then, he wouldn't make 553 00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:12,600 Speaker 1: me pay him twenty or something that was seven year 554 00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:15,880 Speaker 1: old kids, but if one game that Duke lost, I 555 00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:19,760 Speaker 1: would get twenty bucks. So I grew up rooting against Duke. 556 00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:24,800 Speaker 1: I grew up when my dad was at the Duke 557 00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:28,320 Speaker 1: Kentucky game and he was sitting at him and he 558 00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:30,160 Speaker 1: was at the spectrum the lightner shot when he went 559 00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,360 Speaker 1: ten to ten, he was under the basket where later 560 00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:36,200 Speaker 1: Or made it. And I don't really remember this, but 561 00:31:36,320 --> 00:31:39,000 Speaker 1: my mom I thought I was I think I was eight. 562 00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:42,040 Speaker 1: My mom says that I cried and then I wouldn't 563 00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:46,959 Speaker 1: talk to my dad for a week and now I, uh, 564 00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:50,640 Speaker 1: I am dating and will eventually marry a girl that's 565 00:31:50,720 --> 00:31:53,320 Speaker 1: and live in Lexington went to Kentucky. He whole family 566 00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:55,600 Speaker 1: or Kentucky fans. My dad says that the only reason 567 00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:57,120 Speaker 1: I'm doing this is to still get him back for 568 00:31:57,160 --> 00:32:03,920 Speaker 1: that shot you're gonna for posh. Yeah, eventually some time 569 00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:07,240 Speaker 1: later this year. Did she know that? I think so? 570 00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:10,560 Speaker 1: You think so? Are you know? So? I know so? 571 00:32:11,120 --> 00:32:13,120 Speaker 1: Because you told her you said, I'm going to propose her. 572 00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:15,600 Speaker 1: She said, asshole, you better proposed to me before the 573 00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:20,000 Speaker 1: end of the year. Uh both Now, No, I so 574 00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:22,640 Speaker 1: I told her that I would. I know that I'm 575 00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:24,000 Speaker 1: going to be with her. I mean, she's a she's 576 00:32:24,040 --> 00:32:27,360 Speaker 1: a she's a better too. It was meant to be um. 577 00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:30,920 Speaker 1: But now so I have a personal reason. They hate 578 00:32:30,960 --> 00:32:32,320 Speaker 1: to but I also love them because it's the reason 579 00:32:32,400 --> 00:32:35,440 Speaker 1: that they got me into betting. But I tend. I 580 00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:38,440 Speaker 1: mean a lot of the hate also comes from the 581 00:32:38,440 --> 00:32:40,320 Speaker 1: they They are no longer this team, by the way, 582 00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:45,440 Speaker 1: but they started the whole flopping revolution, and you know so, 583 00:32:45,600 --> 00:32:48,280 Speaker 1: I mean people always hate the flops and all the 584 00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:51,400 Speaker 1: calls that Duke would get on those flops. Now they're 585 00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:54,320 Speaker 1: just an NBA team, So they're not like that. I mean, now, 586 00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:57,880 Speaker 1: now the new Duke is like Wisconsin, uh, and you 587 00:32:57,920 --> 00:32:59,880 Speaker 1: know all of the flops. So but I think that 588 00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:03,160 Speaker 1: drives it a lot to all of the Cameron crazys, 589 00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:06,520 Speaker 1: the floor slapping, there's just a lot of things that 590 00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:10,040 Speaker 1: you know are unlikable for dupe. But I think it's 591 00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:12,720 Speaker 1: good for college basketball when Duke is really good, which 592 00:33:12,760 --> 00:33:17,520 Speaker 1: they usually are. Did you buy a ring? Ah? No? 593 00:33:17,560 --> 00:33:19,640 Speaker 1: Not yet? All right, Well, if you need help with that, 594 00:33:19,720 --> 00:33:22,160 Speaker 1: let me know. What's that. If you need help with that, 595 00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:25,840 Speaker 1: let me know. We'll do all right. Stucky, I gotta go. 596 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:27,640 Speaker 1: I got a meeting. I can't sit around a podcast 597 00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:29,120 Speaker 1: with you all day. I can shoot the ship. I 598 00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:31,160 Speaker 1: could hear about what's going to happen with your engagement. 599 00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:34,520 Speaker 1: We could talk about college basketball. But you're busy. You're 600 00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:38,360 Speaker 1: a multimedia superstar. I'm busy, you know, trying to run 601 00:33:38,280 --> 00:33:42,640 Speaker 1: an operation. Here. When's the next bestseller coming? Listen? Man, 602 00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:46,880 Speaker 1: I got so much work to do. I can't sit 603 00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:49,440 Speaker 1: around writing books all day. That's like, you know, it's 604 00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:52,960 Speaker 1: what you can do when like you've got nothing else 605 00:33:53,000 --> 00:33:57,160 Speaker 1: to do. It's like a luxury. Oh yeah, the answer 606 00:33:57,200 --> 00:34:00,280 Speaker 1: doesn't have to be today, five years or I don't know, 607 00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:02,200 Speaker 1: is there another one coming down the line, or you 608 00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:05,000 Speaker 1: don't write No, no, no, I'll definitely write another book 609 00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:08,319 Speaker 1: at some point in my life. But I think if 610 00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:10,319 Speaker 1: I had stayed at ESPN, I probably writing a book 611 00:34:10,400 --> 00:34:12,839 Speaker 1: right now. But that was also an indication me like 612 00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:15,560 Speaker 1: it might be time to leave ESPN. I was starting 613 00:34:15,560 --> 00:34:17,719 Speaker 1: to have like a lot of the other ideas of 614 00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:21,360 Speaker 1: what I could think I could be doing. And uh, instead, I, 615 00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:23,799 Speaker 1: you know, decided to check it all and go work 616 00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,399 Speaker 1: at the Action Network because that seemed like a better 617 00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:28,399 Speaker 1: idea than trying to write a book. That's how hard 618 00:34:28,440 --> 00:34:30,120 Speaker 1: it is to write a book. I decided to go 619 00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:32,360 Speaker 1: somewhere where we could all start a company from scratch. 620 00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:38,040 Speaker 1: I'm with it. Well, I'm glad that you came on board, 621 00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:40,120 Speaker 1: and I will see you in Vegas next week. I 622 00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:41,759 Speaker 1: will see you next week in Vegas. That's right. We 623 00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:43,680 Speaker 1: gotta tell people we have a big event going on 624 00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:47,040 Speaker 1: at the Palms in Vegas next week. Free event. Uh. 625 00:34:47,080 --> 00:34:49,320 Speaker 1: It starts at seven o'clock. I'm gonna be there, Stuck, 626 00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:51,560 Speaker 1: He's gonna be there. Blackjack is gonna be there. LaDuke 627 00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:53,880 Speaker 1: is going to be there, Darren Ravel is going to 628 00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:57,320 Speaker 1: be there. Uh, free event. You do not have to 629 00:34:57,320 --> 00:34:59,320 Speaker 1: pay to go with the little chalk talk pre tournament 630 00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:01,759 Speaker 1: chalk talk, watch the play in games. It's gonna be 631 00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:04,400 Speaker 1: a blast. I totally should have mentioned that in the 632 00:35:04,440 --> 00:35:08,239 Speaker 1: podcast at some point. Yeah, for anyone listening, I'll be 633 00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:10,759 Speaker 1: out there whole weekend. I mean if I'm going on 634 00:35:10,840 --> 00:35:13,200 Speaker 1: there ones that I can't leave during the tournament, so 635 00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:16,560 Speaker 1: I'll be coming back a lot of work in between 636 00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:21,920 Speaker 1: two with coming back on Monday. So if anyone is around, 637 00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:25,160 Speaker 1: just uh for those other days, probably at the Westgate 638 00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:28,560 Speaker 1: a couple of days, just shout my way. Go to 639 00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:34,800 Speaker 1: Action Network dot com slash Madness Hyphen Party. Action Network 640 00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:39,480 Speaker 1: dot com slash Madness hyphen Party, and it's going to 641 00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:41,719 Speaker 1: be a blast. You get free entry, drink, tickets, a 642 00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:44,319 Speaker 1: T shirt. Um, go are sef We've already had like 643 00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,799 Speaker 1: three people RSPP for this thing. It turns out we're 644 00:35:47,840 --> 00:35:49,719 Speaker 1: big in the event space because remember we had the 645 00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:52,359 Speaker 1: podcast for the favorites and like we had to turn 646 00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:54,400 Speaker 1: people away. There were so many people we didn't we 647 00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:58,120 Speaker 1: didn't we underestimated how popular we are. Well, that's a 648 00:35:58,120 --> 00:36:00,520 Speaker 1: good thing. Yeah, I'm excited for it should be a 649 00:36:00,640 --> 00:36:04,000 Speaker 1: blast and uh, it's it's just a great time to 650 00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:07,400 Speaker 1: be in Gas that night before the n A Tournament 651 00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:12,319 Speaker 1: the first Thursday, which we'll start at nine in the morning. There, 652 00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:14,880 Speaker 1: it's a great time to be there with all the excitement. 653 00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:18,680 Speaker 1: It's betting Christmas Eve, beautiful Stuck, I'll see you out there, baby. 654 00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:22,400 Speaker 1: All right, thanks, thank you too, Stuck. You for the 655 00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:26,600 Speaker 1: in depth college basketball plus the uh insight, the fact 656 00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:28,799 Speaker 1: that he's going to get engaged sometime this year. We're 657 00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:30,480 Speaker 1: really excited about that. We're gonna throw a big party. 658 00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:33,279 Speaker 1: We're also having that big party in Vegas. This has 659 00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:37,879 Speaker 1: been the favorites from the Action Network. Download us from 660 00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:42,359 Speaker 1: Radio dot com, Slash, the Action Network, or wherever you 661 00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:45,480 Speaker 1: get your podcasts. Until next time, Thank you very much.