1 00:00:14,320 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 1: What's up, guys? 2 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Friday morning episode of 3 00:00:17,600 --> 00:00:18,920 Speaker 2: the Daily Juice podcast. 4 00:00:19,040 --> 00:00:20,000 Speaker 1: My name is Matt Parolt. 5 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:22,440 Speaker 2: You guys can follow me across all socials at Sports 6 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:26,080 Speaker 2: Talk Matt. This podcast being brought to you by Omaha 7 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:30,360 Speaker 2: Steaks dot com slash Juice. That is the website you 8 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:32,680 Speaker 2: punch in that. You go there, you get a subscription. 9 00:00:32,880 --> 00:00:35,440 Speaker 2: They give you ten percent off your first order, free 10 00:00:35,440 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 2: burgers for life, and money back guarantee. All right, let's 11 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:44,839 Speaker 2: talk about last night. I lost three futures. We officially 12 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:49,080 Speaker 2: lost two. Iowa State, North Carolina, Arizona all get sent home. 13 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:52,440 Speaker 2: Revenge of the sports Books. The books had a very 14 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 2: good day. Now I went to and two, so down 15 00:00:56,480 --> 00:00:59,480 Speaker 2: point two, so pretty much a flat day. But before 16 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 2: you're like, Matt, yeah we're in trouble with the futures, 17 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:05,240 Speaker 2: we're actually okay. All right, We're not great, but we're okay. 18 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:10,920 Speaker 2: Marquette and Creighton that is who we need to win today. 19 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:15,760 Speaker 2: All right, Marquette twenty to one, Creighton is thirty to one. 20 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:19,240 Speaker 2: Now we have the Tennessee future as well, so we're 21 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:24,200 Speaker 2: okay there, Marquette needs to win, so I have I'm 22 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 2: gonna explain to you how I am hedging on the 23 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:28,680 Speaker 2: Marquette play against NC State. I'm gonna tell you that 24 00:01:28,720 --> 00:01:30,559 Speaker 2: here in just one second, there was a hedge coming, 25 00:01:30,600 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 2: but a little bit of a different hedge. 26 00:01:31,959 --> 00:01:33,479 Speaker 1: It's what I should have done with Illinois. 27 00:01:34,000 --> 00:01:36,760 Speaker 2: But I do not believe Illinois can beat Yukon, so 28 00:01:36,840 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 2: I didn't want to lose two units on it. And 29 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 2: I would have to have bet too much back on 30 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 2: Yukon to justify it. So I backed off and said, 31 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,720 Speaker 2: you know what, let's let it ride. There wasn't ever 32 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 2: a good time to punt out of that Illinois that 33 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 2: Illinois bet. 34 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 1: I mean I would I could have. 35 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:55,640 Speaker 2: The best number I saw was mass one seventy five, 36 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:59,440 Speaker 2: which would have cash obviously, but that would have been 37 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:01,040 Speaker 2: a lot of money to me to put out to 38 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:02,720 Speaker 2: go ahead and hedge off that, and I was just 39 00:02:02,800 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 2: like not comfortable doing that. I was like, you know what, 40 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:07,040 Speaker 2: if I lose it, I just take the l and 41 00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 2: I move on and I hope to make up the 42 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:13,160 Speaker 2: money later in the tournament with a Marquette bet, a 43 00:02:13,240 --> 00:02:15,640 Speaker 2: Creighton bet, something along those lines. If we get both 44 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:19,840 Speaker 2: Marquette and Creighton into the Elite eight, we're doing really well, 45 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 2: and we'll have a huge opportunity to start to like, 46 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 2: you know, two three unit hedges. Okay, So I know 47 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 2: we're down two units right now. Okay, I know we're 48 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 2: down to I said we were not going to lose 49 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 2: money on this experiment. Okay, So this is I'm hoping 50 00:02:34,880 --> 00:02:36,760 Speaker 2: to hold my word so far. 51 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:39,800 Speaker 1: Okay. So two of the five officially are gone. 52 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:45,240 Speaker 2: North Carolina, which was arguably Well Carolina and Arizona. We're 53 00:02:45,280 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 2: our two shortest numbers arguably okay, next to Tennessee. Then 54 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,440 Speaker 2: it's Marquette and then it's Craton. Okay, so we have 55 00:02:53,520 --> 00:02:57,079 Speaker 2: our two biggest long shots still available and then Tennessee. 56 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 2: So look a lot of people like the Valls tonight. 57 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,000 Speaker 2: I'm not gonna knock it. I'm just gonna let it ride. 58 00:03:02,040 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 1: Okay. 59 00:03:02,320 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 2: I have nothing on the Creighton Yukon game or the 60 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:07,959 Speaker 2: Creighton Tennessee game. I picked Tennessee on my bracket, Okay, 61 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,799 Speaker 2: curious as to what I picked. I picked Tennessee. Now 62 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:13,480 Speaker 2: my bracket is destroyed. I pick North Carolina to win 63 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 2: it all, but normally I pick half the final four, right, 64 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:20,840 Speaker 2: and normally I pick the championship game. Half right and 65 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:24,480 Speaker 2: the champions a coin flip, I have Houston playing North Carolina. 66 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 2: I still think Houston's gonna wind up in the National 67 00:03:26,440 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 2: championship game. Who they play, that's a big debate. It's 68 00:03:30,200 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 2: probably going to be Yukon, It's probably going to be Houston. 69 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 2: It's probably gonna be pretty choky. I still think those 70 00:03:35,160 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 2: are the two best teams in college basketball. 71 00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:39,040 Speaker 1: So let's start with Houston. 72 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:43,800 Speaker 2: Okay, Houston is going to be unlike anything that Duke 73 00:03:43,840 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 2: has played defensively this year. They are so physical, they 74 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:50,360 Speaker 2: are so long. Duke shot the ball so well in 75 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:53,680 Speaker 2: their last game against James Madison that they cannot do 76 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:57,520 Speaker 2: it again. In my opinion, I expect a big regression 77 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 2: for Duke here tonight up against Houston. However, I don't 78 00:04:02,720 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 2: want to play the whole game because by halftime, I 79 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:08,600 Speaker 2: do think that John Shire and Duke will make adjustments 80 00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:12,760 Speaker 2: and figure out ways of getting Philipowski in company. I 81 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 2: think Houston wins in covers, but I would prefer to 82 00:04:15,800 --> 00:04:19,359 Speaker 2: go back to the bet that was very profitable during 83 00:04:19,440 --> 00:04:23,039 Speaker 2: the regular season, and that's Houston. In the first half, 84 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 2: they're only laying two. It's a flat half. Houston just 85 00:04:27,120 --> 00:04:29,920 Speaker 2: basically has to be up by a bucket at the break. 86 00:04:30,680 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 2: I don't think Duke shoots the ball the same in 87 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 2: the first half as they did against James Madison, and 88 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 2: I think it takes them a half to get used 89 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:40,960 Speaker 2: to what Houston is going to bring. And I don't 90 00:04:41,000 --> 00:04:44,240 Speaker 2: think Duke defensively is tough enough to handle what Houston's 91 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:46,920 Speaker 2: gonna bring. I think Shedding company, I think they're going 92 00:04:46,960 --> 00:04:48,600 Speaker 2: to be a little bit too much for them to handle. 93 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:51,800 Speaker 2: I like Houston in the first half. I like it 94 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 2: for the game too, But I'm gonna bet Houston minus 95 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:58,440 Speaker 2: two in the first half for one point one units. 96 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 2: Now I mentioned we have nothing on Creighton in Tennessee. 97 00:05:03,520 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 2: I'm just gonna let that ride. All right, Let's talk 98 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 2: about Gonzaga in their game against Purdue. Look it, I 99 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:15,400 Speaker 2: haven't been high on Purdue all year. I know a 100 00:05:15,440 --> 00:05:18,239 Speaker 2: lot of people who really like Purdue. I think Purdue 101 00:05:18,320 --> 00:05:22,080 Speaker 2: is a really tough team. All the metrics really like Purdue. 102 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:24,920 Speaker 2: This is a five point win according to Ken Pom. 103 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 2: If anything told us yesterday, the first number one seed 104 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:32,080 Speaker 2: is gone, the first number two seed is gone. And 105 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:34,440 Speaker 2: I think there's a damn good chance another number one 106 00:05:34,480 --> 00:05:40,040 Speaker 2: seed goes packing. Tommy Lloyd choked, Matt Painter's got that 107 00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 2: same stink about him. It's not really fair, It's just 108 00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 2: it is what it is. I think this Mark Few 109 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:52,720 Speaker 2: led team, they're playing so well. Monster win over Kansas, 110 00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 2: Monster win over McNee State. Yes, I know Purdue won 111 00:05:56,440 --> 00:05:58,679 Speaker 2: by thirty nine and twenty eight, but they played Utah 112 00:05:58,760 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 2: State in Grambling State. 113 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:01,119 Speaker 1: Not good. 114 00:06:01,880 --> 00:06:04,159 Speaker 2: I know Kansas was without their best player. I get that, 115 00:06:04,200 --> 00:06:07,520 Speaker 2: but it's still Kansas, it's still Bill self. I think 116 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:09,719 Speaker 2: Mark Hugh has got a huge opportunity here. The number 117 00:06:09,760 --> 00:06:11,800 Speaker 2: is five and a half. I think Gonzaga's winning to 118 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 2: win the game outright, But I'm taking the dog here. 119 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,120 Speaker 2: Gonzaga plus five and a half. They were eleven and 120 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 2: eight this year ats away from home. They've covered four 121 00:06:20,240 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 2: of their last five games perdue eleven and seven and 122 00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:26,440 Speaker 2: one away from home this year they covered the last two, 123 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:30,880 Speaker 2: but four and six over their last ten. I just 124 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 2: think this is going to be a tight basketball game. 125 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:34,760 Speaker 2: I think Gonzaga can win the game. I really do 126 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:37,760 Speaker 2: to altos one fifty four and a half. I mean 127 00:06:37,760 --> 00:06:40,039 Speaker 2: I lead, I lean kind of towards the over in 128 00:06:40,080 --> 00:06:42,640 Speaker 2: that game, but not like aggressively towards the over in 129 00:06:42,680 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 2: that game, not ten and nine to the under Gonzaga 130 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 2: away from home, eleven and eight to the over for 131 00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 2: Purdue away from home. This year, I'm taking the dog 132 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:55,239 Speaker 2: after I saw last night. I'm not saying it's copycat stuff, 133 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 2: but I just think Gonzaga is live here to win 134 00:06:56,960 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 2: the game. I thought, look, I thought Illinois was love 135 00:07:00,200 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 2: to win the game, and I thought Clemson was live 136 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 2: to win the game. I just let my bets play 137 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 2: out and said, you know what, Like, I don't want 138 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:09,800 Speaker 2: Sweet sixteen hedging. I felt like it was too early, 139 00:07:10,440 --> 00:07:12,880 Speaker 2: so like you had the future, Like you got to 140 00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 2: get to the lead eight of the final four to 141 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:19,720 Speaker 2: really have a decent hedge. And look, if Marquette winds 142 00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 2: up playing, if Marquette wins and Marquette plays Duke, I 143 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 2: love Marquette's chances again in the final four. 144 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:27,200 Speaker 1: Okay, we'll just let that ride. 145 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:29,880 Speaker 2: Marquette plays Houston, I'm gonna hedge off that and we're 146 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 2: gonna go and take Houston because I think Houston will 147 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 2: have a really I mean, I think Houston beats Marquette. 148 00:07:34,680 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 2: So if Creighton wins, Creighton will have the winner of 149 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 2: Gonzaga Purdue. If it's Gonzaga and Creighton, the point guard 150 00:07:42,840 --> 00:07:46,800 Speaker 2: for Gonzaga is Ryan Nemhart. Ryan Nemhart was the point 151 00:07:46,800 --> 00:07:49,680 Speaker 2: guard who had the controversial play against San Diego State 152 00:07:49,720 --> 00:07:51,760 Speaker 2: that would have sent the Jays to the Final Four 153 00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 2: when he played for Creighton last year. That high irony, Okay, 154 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:01,160 Speaker 2: we will, I would who's favored in that game? Gonzaga, right, 155 00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 2: I think I don't know. We'll hedge that, Okay, that's 156 00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 2: where we'd come in and we would go, Okay, it's 157 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:07,560 Speaker 2: thirty to one for the Creighton Blue Jays. We got 158 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 2: a hedge on this because Gonzaga most likely is gonna 159 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 2: win that game. So like that's how if it plays 160 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:15,600 Speaker 2: out right, that's how we can come back here and 161 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:16,840 Speaker 2: we can make up some of the money that we 162 00:08:16,920 --> 00:08:19,520 Speaker 2: lost on the future wages. Because we're gonna lose another 163 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:22,280 Speaker 2: unit tonight, Okay, either the Creighton Blue Jays or Tennessee 164 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:24,120 Speaker 2: we're losing a unit, Okay, so we're gonna be down 165 00:08:24,160 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 2: three units guaranteed. 166 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 1: So now we've got to make up. We've got to 167 00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:27,720 Speaker 1: make We're going. 168 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:29,760 Speaker 2: To be four or five units profitable at the end 169 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:32,080 Speaker 2: of this to be able to make up for the losses. Okay, 170 00:08:32,120 --> 00:08:34,680 Speaker 2: So that's the ultimate goal, is to have this experiment 171 00:08:34,760 --> 00:08:37,120 Speaker 2: be profitable and give us something a root for and 172 00:08:37,120 --> 00:08:40,160 Speaker 2: be entertaining throughout the entire tournament. All right, So Houston 173 00:08:40,200 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 2: the first half minus two against Duke Gonzaga plus five 174 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:45,840 Speaker 2: and a half for the game up against Perdue. I 175 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:48,040 Speaker 2: do think Inzaga can win the game outright, even though 176 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,679 Speaker 2: the game is in Detroit, Michigan. I give it to you, 177 00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:53,240 Speaker 2: it's going to be heavy Perdue crowd. But I think 178 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:56,360 Speaker 2: Gonzaga really has hit their stride and played really really 179 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:58,880 Speaker 2: well here late in the year, and I think Purdue 180 00:08:58,880 --> 00:09:01,000 Speaker 2: may have a difficult time here even with Zach Edy. 181 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:03,319 Speaker 2: I mean, Gonzaga's got size. Okay, there's not going to 182 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:05,400 Speaker 2: be like Gonzaga is not gonna get pushed around here 183 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:06,640 Speaker 2: and be like I don't know how to guard a 184 00:09:06,679 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 2: guy who's seven for three. 185 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 1: Okay. 186 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 2: They've got a couple of big dudes, two six to 187 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:13,079 Speaker 2: ten guys who they can lean on, a couple of 188 00:09:13,120 --> 00:09:15,280 Speaker 2: six foot eight guys, six' nine guy they can lead. 189 00:09:15,360 --> 00:09:18,120 Speaker 2: On So gonzaga is not, small, Right so they're not 190 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,280 Speaker 2: going to be pushed around the way other teams have With, 191 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:24,360 Speaker 2: perdue and let's Hope predue this is their. Threes perdueances 192 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:27,120 Speaker 2: are threes chance for us potentially to get ourselves into 193 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:30,240 Speaker 2: an upset. Situation But gonzaga's offense is seventh in the. 194 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:34,360 Speaker 2: Country inefficiency sixth in effective field goal, percentage forty second 195 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 2: in three point, percentage in seventh in two point. Percentage 196 00:09:37,679 --> 00:09:41,920 Speaker 2: perdue is, Third inefficiency thirteenth in effective field goal percentage, 197 00:09:41,920 --> 00:09:44,840 Speaker 2: offensively their first in three point percentage and their sixtieth 198 00:09:45,040 --> 00:09:48,880 Speaker 2: in two point. Percentage, defensively perdue because of the eedy 199 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 2: fifteenth and efficiency defensively thirty seventh in effective field goal, 200 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:55,400 Speaker 2: percentage forty first in three point, defense and fifty ninth 201 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:58,079 Speaker 2: and two point. Defense gonzega's got to get the, bunnies 202 00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:00,560 Speaker 2: hit the, layups hit their free. Throws they're not a 203 00:10:00,559 --> 00:10:02,960 Speaker 2: great free throw shoot dem they're. Okay seventy two point 204 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:06,199 Speaker 2: eight percent For gonzaga is not, tremendous but seventy one 205 00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 2: percent tomorrow seventy two point one percent For purdue equally not, 206 00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 2: Great but two point Defense gonzaga is tenth best in the. 207 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:16,600 Speaker 1: Country that's Where edie does all of his. 208 00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 2: Damage, okay so you got about you, know forty eight 209 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:22,400 Speaker 2: point five percent of the offense For purdue is scored 210 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:26,840 Speaker 2: from inside the. Arc good defense For gonzaga there could 211 00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 2: be a big, factor but they don't do a great 212 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:29,280 Speaker 2: job guarding the. 213 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:29,840 Speaker 1: Three all. 214 00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 2: Right if the threes, fall that's How purdue is going 215 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 2: to win the game and potentially win the game going 216 00:10:33,840 --> 00:10:36,200 Speaker 2: away if they hit a bunch of. Threes so hopefully 217 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:38,680 Speaker 2: they miss a bunch of threes And gonzaga is in the. 218 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:42,240 Speaker 2: Game so that leads us With, marquette what do we. 219 00:10:42,280 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 2: Do i'm gonna give you a curve. Ball, okay this 220 00:10:46,520 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 2: is a half a. Unit PLAY Nc state to win the. 221 00:10:52,240 --> 00:10:57,520 Speaker 2: BRACKET Nc state to win and go to the final. Four, 222 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:01,000 Speaker 2: now before you, Go, matt you're. Insane they're gonna have 223 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 2: to go Play. Houston, Correct but it's fourteen to. One, 224 00:11:06,760 --> 00:11:10,200 Speaker 2: okay half a unit at fourteen to one means we 225 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:13,840 Speaker 2: win seven. Units hear me out for a, Second, okay 226 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 2: that would give us seven units going in up Against, 227 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 2: houston all, right only risking a half a. Unit so 228 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:26,160 Speaker 2: then If houston Or duke, wins we'll see If houston, 229 00:11:26,200 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 2: wins IF Nc state wins and they Play, houston it's 230 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:32,920 Speaker 2: gonna be a huge. Number, okay we're essentially sacrificing a 231 00:11:32,920 --> 00:11:36,160 Speaker 2: half a unit. Here you can take the plus two 232 00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:39,000 Speaker 2: hundred ON Nc state if you, want but it's way 233 00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:42,800 Speaker 2: more valuable to have a fourteen to one ticket money. 234 00:11:42,800 --> 00:11:45,120 Speaker 2: Line that's gonna be better than what we're gonna get 235 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:49,079 Speaker 2: FOR Nci state up Against, houston and it makes back 236 00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 2: a little bit of the. Money clearly gives us a 237 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:53,679 Speaker 2: chance to make back a bunch of the money that we. Lost, 238 00:11:53,760 --> 00:11:56,840 Speaker 2: okay if we're dealing with a seven unit potential, there 239 00:11:57,080 --> 00:11:59,360 Speaker 2: we can come in and we're gonna have to lay 240 00:12:01,160 --> 00:12:04,160 Speaker 2: On houston to. WIN i, mean it's gonna be it's 241 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:06,079 Speaker 2: gonna be pretty. Big that number is gonna be pretty. 242 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:07,920 Speaker 2: Large we may need to do it in, Game, okay 243 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:10,400 Speaker 2: and see If. Houston you, know if it comes, down 244 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:13,839 Speaker 2: if it's minus three, hundred you, know how do we win. 245 00:12:13,960 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 2: Back it's not only gonna be a half a. Unit 246 00:12:16,080 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 2: so how do we win back one or two units on? 247 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:22,000 Speaker 2: This we'll play the math game if it gets to, 248 00:12:22,040 --> 00:12:26,440 Speaker 2: that but to hedge off of The marquette. Game so 249 00:12:26,440 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 2: If marquette loses AN Nc state upsets, them and let's be, 250 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:31,640 Speaker 2: honest it's been a good tournament for THE acc other 251 00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:34,120 Speaker 2: Than North carolina. Losing clemson has a real good shot 252 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 2: of Beating alabama and getting themselves to the final. Four, 253 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 2: Okay SO i Mean alabama's got a good shot as. 254 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 2: Well we're talking about really a four or five or 255 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:45,439 Speaker 2: four to six matchup coming up here for a chance 256 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:47,599 Speaker 2: to go to the final four and get To. Arizona 257 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:50,080 Speaker 2: SO i don't know if anybody really thought that was 258 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 2: gonna be the you, know coming out of The west 259 00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:54,720 Speaker 2: and had to see the top three seeds all be 260 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:58,840 Speaker 2: Gone number ONE, unc number Two, arizona number Three baylor 261 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:02,360 Speaker 2: all being kicked. Out clemson could go through and clean 262 00:13:02,400 --> 00:13:05,120 Speaker 2: out another one. Here clemson already cleaned out the two 263 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:08,040 Speaker 2: seed and the three. Seed now clean out the four 264 00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 2: seed and they get to the final. 265 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 1: Four. 266 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:13,440 Speaker 2: Okay SO Nc state is you, know has been super. 267 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:15,840 Speaker 2: Hot they won five games in five. Days they've won 268 00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:17,719 Speaker 2: three games here in this. Tournament could they keep it 269 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:19,440 Speaker 2: going and Beat? Marquette why? 270 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:19,560 Speaker 1: Not? 271 00:13:19,880 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 2: Okay official play half a unit fourteen to one At 272 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:26,400 Speaker 2: FanDuel to win The. 273 00:13:26,480 --> 00:13:29,920 Speaker 1: SOUTH Nc state to win The south. 274 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:34,160 Speaker 2: Again this is a hedge to The marquette situation and 275 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:36,800 Speaker 2: puts us into an opportunity. Here if they Play, houston 276 00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 2: WHICH i think they're going to the nccit Against, houston 277 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:41,679 Speaker 2: they're going to be huge. Favors Maybe duke upsets, them 278 00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 2: Maybe duke wins IN Nc, State duke. Fine most likely 279 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:47,920 Speaker 2: It's marquette two Seed houston one. Seed most likely that's 280 00:13:47,960 --> 00:13:50,000 Speaker 2: what we're going to. See and if that's the, case 281 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:52,920 Speaker 2: we'll hedge out again because it'll be fifteen to, one 282 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:54,920 Speaker 2: and well a chance to hedge off of. That, okay 283 00:13:54,920 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 2: BUT i don't want to put a Full you can 284 00:13:56,080 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 2: put a full unit downe on if you, want BUT 285 00:13:57,920 --> 00:13:59,480 Speaker 2: i don't want to do that BECAUSE i don't want 286 00:13:59,480 --> 00:14:01,320 Speaker 2: to Get we're already going to be three units. Down 287 00:14:01,480 --> 00:14:03,280 Speaker 2: that means we'll be three and a half units. DOWN 288 00:14:03,440 --> 00:14:04,920 Speaker 2: i don't want to build it up so high that 289 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:06,920 Speaker 2: we can't you, know you know WHAT i, Mean, like 290 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:09,600 Speaker 2: we're putting out so much money that If marquette shucks 291 00:14:09,640 --> 00:14:11,360 Speaker 2: the world all of a, usden we're down like ten 292 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:13,559 Speaker 2: units and we still Need marquette to win two more, 293 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:16,120 Speaker 2: games you, KNOW i mean that COULD i could get. 294 00:14:16,160 --> 00:14:17,560 Speaker 2: Scary SO i want to make sure that we're not 295 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 2: getting ourselves so far behind the eight ball that we 296 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:23,320 Speaker 2: can't make it profitable for us on all of. This all, 297 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:27,040 Speaker 2: Right so three bets today in college, basketball but only 298 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:30,000 Speaker 2: two that are going to be cashed today are graded. 299 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:34,040 Speaker 2: Today Row houston in the first half minus two Against 300 00:14:34,120 --> 00:14:37,720 Speaker 2: Duke gonzaga plus five and a half Against PURDUE Nc 301 00:14:37,880 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 2: state half a unit fourteen to one to win The 302 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 2: south bracket here against whoever they, Played They're. Houston if 303 00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 2: they played To houston or they play it's a hedge 304 00:14:48,440 --> 00:14:49,720 Speaker 2: off of The marquete Play houston Or. 305 00:14:49,800 --> 00:14:51,320 Speaker 1: Duke, Right so. 306 00:14:51,280 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 2: One baseball bet for, us and this is JUST i, 307 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 2: mean do you see what The diamondbacks did? Yesterday, okay 308 00:14:56,080 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 2: the GOOZ i was right about The. Rockies they're gonna 309 00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:01,920 Speaker 2: have no. Offense they scored one run sixteen to one. Loss, 310 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:04,480 Speaker 2: NOW i don't Think arizona's going to score sixteen runs 311 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:06,680 Speaker 2: again against. Them but Cal quantrell is going in this. 312 00:15:06,800 --> 00:15:12,320 Speaker 2: Game excuse, me Cal, quantrell journeyman pitcher four and seven 313 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:14,720 Speaker 2: last year with a four point twenty five four point 314 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 2: twenty four. ERA i mean he normally is good for 315 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 2: like four or five. Innings then we get into that 316 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:25,480 Speaker 2: bullpen for for The, rockies which got lit up. YESTERDAY 317 00:15:25,720 --> 00:15:28,840 Speaker 2: i mean just completely and totally. TATTOOED i don't. THINK 318 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:31,400 Speaker 2: i MEAN i didn't see it. COMING i bet the. 319 00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:34,040 Speaker 2: UNDER i didn't think they scored sixteen. RUNS i thought 320 00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:36,800 Speaker 2: we might actually have a chance, to you, know maybe 321 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 2: have a decent performance out of the for one game 322 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 2: for The. Rockies, no it was not even. Close fourteen 323 00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 2: run third inning for. Them if you look at the 324 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:51,640 Speaker 2: box score in this, game The rockies ran out how 325 00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:55,440 Speaker 2: many pitchers an opening? Day? One, two, three? Four five? 326 00:15:55,520 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 2: Pitchers they ran out an opening? Day ten runs given 327 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 2: up By Kyle, freeland all of them. Earned molina came, 328 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 2: in he pitched a third of an, inning he gave 329 00:16:03,640 --> 00:16:06,520 Speaker 2: up six, runs all of them. Earned and the bullpen 330 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:09,880 Speaker 2: came in and pitched the remaining five, innings five and 331 00:16:09,920 --> 00:16:13,200 Speaker 2: a third, innings and they gave up, well no runs, 332 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:15,320 Speaker 2: actually but it was the game was already completely out of, 333 00:16:15,320 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 2: whack was sixteen to. One so WHILE i don't want 334 00:16:17,920 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 2: to go ahead and bet the over in the, game 335 00:16:21,000 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 2: BECAUSE i do think that's, POTENTIAL i don't think The 336 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:26,440 Speaker 2: rockets are going to score very many. RUNS i think 337 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:28,560 Speaker 2: they're going to be in deep trouble here and we've 338 00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 2: Got Meryl kelly going here for The, diamondbacks who last 339 00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 2: year was twelve and eight with a three point two 340 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 2: to three. Eer Meryl kelly last year finished the year 341 00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:40,520 Speaker 2: very very. Strong he was a huge factor and why 342 00:16:40,560 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 2: they made the. Playoffs last. Year he gave up just 343 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 2: six earned runs in his last four starts and was 344 00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:50,840 Speaker 2: solid for. Them So Meryl, KELLY i think it's going 345 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 2: to be his last started at. Home he gave up 346 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:56,760 Speaker 2: one earned, run went seven innings Against, houston Against San, 347 00:16:56,800 --> 00:16:59,640 Speaker 2: francis against The. Giants he gave up one earned run 348 00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 2: against The rockies last time out in Lesson, september but 349 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,240 Speaker 2: one earned, run so three earned runs his last three 350 00:17:05,240 --> 00:17:08,439 Speaker 2: starts at home last. Year Marriy kelly was very good at, 351 00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:12,360 Speaker 2: home much like all The dbacks. Pitchers gallen was, Amazing 352 00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:17,520 Speaker 2: kelly was. Amazing run, line run Line diamondbacks minus one 353 00:17:17,560 --> 00:17:20,439 Speaker 2: oh nine minus ONE o. Nine gotta win by more 354 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:23,200 Speaker 2: than one. Run, okay four to two, final we're. Good 355 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,040 Speaker 2: three to one, final we're good. Too nothing, final we're. 356 00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:28,560 Speaker 2: Good just win by more than one run for The. 357 00:17:28,560 --> 00:17:31,200 Speaker 2: DIAMONDBACKS i said it wasn't going to bet baseball. Anymore 358 00:17:31,280 --> 00:17:34,560 Speaker 2: but that bet just screams at me like that was 359 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:36,680 Speaker 2: a personal play THAT i made yesterday that we hit. 360 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 2: That some of you guys trailed and bet. IT i 361 00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:41,040 Speaker 2: bet the. UNDER i lost on, it BUT i got 362 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 2: the run line. Right you guys bet run. Line some 363 00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:44,920 Speaker 2: of you guys, SAID i don't want to bet the 364 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 2: total about bet run. Line i'm betting run line. Again 365 00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 2: let's see IF i could go three and oh they 366 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:51,160 Speaker 2: could win them on the run line for all three. 367 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:53,280 Speaker 2: GAMES i, mean that's how bad The rockies are going to. 368 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:54,600 Speaker 2: Be that's WHY i liked betting the under on The 369 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:57,639 Speaker 2: rockies win total, yesterday like we did officially under sixty 370 00:17:57,640 --> 00:18:00,200 Speaker 2: and a half wins for The. Rockies they are. Horrible 371 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 2: they are absolutely. Horrible so let's jump on him and 372 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:04,960 Speaker 2: fade them here in the early part of the. Year 373 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 2: if we make some money on the run line with, 374 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:08,200 Speaker 2: THEM i, mean they could be Another sales A. 375 00:18:08,320 --> 00:18:09,640 Speaker 1: Shark, okay that's a bit. 376 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,399 Speaker 2: Bad just getting beatd constantly by more than one, run all, 377 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 2: Right so run line minus one or nine For diamondbacks 378 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:21,040 Speaker 2: against The rockies for one point zero Nine, unitskay three 379 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 2: bets in college, BASKETBALL Nc state fourteen to one to 380 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 2: win The south. Bracket half a unit on That zags 381 00:18:26,800 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 2: plus five and a half for one point one Units 382 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 2: houston in the first, half minus two up Against duke 383 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:37,000 Speaker 2: run line For arizona Against, colorado and we'll see which team, 384 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:41,960 Speaker 2: advances which future stays. Alive Between creighton And, Tennessee let's 385 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:44,000 Speaker 2: see if The jays can pull it. Off we want The, 386 00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:46,359 Speaker 2: j's we Want. Marquette those are the two wins we're 387 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:48,919 Speaker 2: pulling for here. Tonight Go Big east to get to 388 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 2: The elite Eight MIAs Matt parold to follow me across 389 00:18:51,280 --> 00:18:54,120 Speaker 2: all socials At Sports Talk. Matt every Morning Dale jus 390 00:18:54,160 --> 00:19:09,560 Speaker 2: podcast always being brought to you by olmastaks Dot com