1
00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:07,080
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast podcast. If you are even remotely

2
00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:16,200
Speaker 1: a savage, you'll run these people over for a second.

3
00:00:15,200 --> 00:00:30,760
Speaker 2: Hello, Welcome to the Action Network podcast UFC Betting Preview.

4
00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:33,360
Speaker 2: I'm Sean Zerulo, joined today by Billy Ward to help

5
00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:37,240
Speaker 2: you break down our best bets, favorite underdogs, top props

6
00:00:37,280 --> 00:00:40,159
Speaker 2: and more for this weekend's UFC card going down in

7
00:00:40,280 --> 00:00:44,720
Speaker 2: Kansas City, Missouri on Saturday night. Fourteen fight card eight

8
00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:48,200
Speaker 2: prelimbs at six pm Eastern, Pretty good pacing there, six

9
00:00:48,240 --> 00:00:51,519
Speaker 2: fight main card at nine pm Eastern. I'd like to

10
00:00:51,520 --> 00:00:53,520
Speaker 2: tell some of the bets that we discuss on today's show.

11
00:00:53,520 --> 00:00:55,680
Speaker 2: Make sure to find the quick slip links in the

12
00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,920
Speaker 2: podcast and the video description, or go to Actionnework dot

13
00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:03,520
Speaker 2: com bet now. The main event of five round welterweight

14
00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,640
Speaker 2: fight between Ian Machado Gary is currently about minus one

15
00:01:06,800 --> 00:01:11,280
Speaker 2: thirty and Carlos protest plus one ten protests Team Fighting

16
00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:15,800
Speaker 2: Nerds protests Kyle Ohio, Mauricio Hoofi, and Jean Silva combined

17
00:01:15,800 --> 00:01:18,840
Speaker 2: twenty four and zero in the UFC. We will forget

18
00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:21,680
Speaker 2: about their other teammates who have losses who they do

19
00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:25,040
Speaker 2: not claim as members of Team Fighting Nerds. On official

20
00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:30,240
Speaker 2: UFC graphics, but protests very decorated, striker excellent mo we

21
00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:33,479
Speaker 2: tie very dangerous Ian Gary. We've seen him in made

22
00:01:33,480 --> 00:01:38,800
Speaker 2: events to date, protests cardio questionable, cross five rounds, grappling

23
00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:42,040
Speaker 2: questionable on bottom. We haven't really seen him tested much.

24
00:01:42,840 --> 00:01:45,600
Speaker 2: But I think the cardio aspect, the fact that everybody

25
00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:48,880
Speaker 2: knows he's a chainsmoker. He's discussed trying to smoke less

26
00:01:48,880 --> 00:01:51,240
Speaker 2: outside of the octagon, like, we literally do not know

27
00:01:51,280 --> 00:01:53,880
Speaker 2: how this guy's cardio is going to look in extended fight.

28
00:01:53,920 --> 00:01:56,160
Speaker 2: But he is the much more dangerous of the two.

29
00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:59,440
Speaker 2: Gary to me is morphing into I said this ability

30
00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:01,880
Speaker 2: last night. Gary is morphing into a Neil Magnet type

31
00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:04,480
Speaker 2: where he knows he doesn't have the power to hurt

32
00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:07,600
Speaker 2: opponents in the division. He has the technique, he has

33
00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:10,600
Speaker 2: grappling upside now that he's working with Charles Oavera. But

34
00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:13,119
Speaker 2: I think he's trying to avoid pocket exchanges. He's trying

35
00:02:13,120 --> 00:02:14,600
Speaker 2: to be all the way in or all the way out.

36
00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:17,520
Speaker 2: He's either grappling with guys cage pushing, trying to get

37
00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:20,600
Speaker 2: them to the ground, or fighting that outside range game

38
00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:23,840
Speaker 2: looking at kick guys from range. Tea calf kicks, etc.

39
00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:27,160
Speaker 2: So I think Gary you know, is going to be

40
00:02:27,200 --> 00:02:29,720
Speaker 2: in a lot of close and competitive decisions going forward,

41
00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:33,200
Speaker 2: longer fights where the optics are sort of weighing his

42
00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:36,880
Speaker 2: volume against better damage from opponents. Neither of these guys

43
00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:39,799
Speaker 2: defend strikes well, and I do like the over here.

44
00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:41,520
Speaker 2: I'm betting the over three and a half. I'm betting

45
00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:45,200
Speaker 2: the fight to go to decision. That's my biggest concern Gary.

46
00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:48,000
Speaker 2: In practice, both defense strikes at about fifty percent, which

47
00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:51,600
Speaker 2: is very low for the division. But I think Gary

48
00:02:51,639 --> 00:02:54,320
Speaker 2: can slow some things down with the cage push, clinching, grappling.

49
00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:58,280
Speaker 2: I lean his direction, but more so on the decision line.

50
00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:00,880
Speaker 2: I'd rather bet Gary by decision of plus two, then

51
00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:03,720
Speaker 2: bet his money line at minus one thirty. I'm also

52
00:03:03,800 --> 00:03:06,120
Speaker 2: going to look for a live number on him after

53
00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:10,280
Speaker 2: round two, maybe after round three, as protests posentially slows

54
00:03:10,560 --> 00:03:12,280
Speaker 2: in a longer fight. But my favorite way to bet

55
00:03:12,280 --> 00:03:13,840
Speaker 2: this either the over three and a half rounds at

56
00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:15,720
Speaker 2: about a picking price or the fight to go to

57
00:03:15,760 --> 00:03:19,320
Speaker 2: a decision at plus one sixty. I made the ghosty

58
00:03:19,400 --> 00:03:23,560
Speaker 2: decision line about plus one twenty five. Billy Ward, want

59
00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:26,080
Speaker 2: to bring you in here, get your breakdown of this

60
00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:29,639
Speaker 2: fight and then any ways you're considering betting it, including

61
00:03:29,680 --> 00:03:31,600
Speaker 2: I believe we're aligned on the live angle for Gary.

62
00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:34,519
Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely real quick fo I get to the fight.

63
00:03:34,960 --> 00:03:37,400
Speaker 3: The way you can tell if someone is an official

64
00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:40,040
Speaker 3: member of the Fighting Nerds is if they win their

65
00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,240
Speaker 3: fight or not, because if they lose their fight, it

66
00:03:42,280 --> 00:03:44,000
Speaker 3: doesn't matter how long they've trained with them, They're not

67
00:03:44,000 --> 00:03:46,440
Speaker 3: a Fighting Nerd if they win. Even if there's some

68
00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:49,120
Speaker 3: Polish dude who spent three months there, all of a sudden,

69
00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:52,320
Speaker 3: you are an official Fighting man last. Actually, it's a

70
00:03:52,320 --> 00:03:55,800
Speaker 3: pretty easy system. If you win, it counts if you lose.

71
00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:59,360
Speaker 3: He or she just trained with us for a few months.

72
00:03:59,360 --> 00:04:02,000
Speaker 3: Not a real mine the team. But yeah, I've enjoyed

73
00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:05,200
Speaker 3: the revisionist history on some of those cracks this week

74
00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:06,800
Speaker 3: as well. Like I'm kind of cool with it if

75
00:04:06,800 --> 00:04:08,800
Speaker 3: we just count the main four who's been there forever.

76
00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:11,880
Speaker 3: But they started adding like Bihela j Chuck got to

77
00:04:11,920 --> 00:04:13,960
Speaker 3: win when he trained with them like that, we can't

78
00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:14,920
Speaker 3: count that if we don't.

79
00:04:14,840 --> 00:04:17,200
Speaker 2: Think Brazil lost with them, right, and they just they

80
00:04:17,200 --> 00:04:18,000
Speaker 2: disregard that one.

81
00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:20,480
Speaker 3: So who, Yeah, we've never heard of her. I don't know,

82
00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:24,920
Speaker 3: but yeah, no, I agree with you. Obviously, a like

83
00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:28,120
Speaker 3: very public chain smoker who hasn't been out of the

84
00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:31,040
Speaker 3: second round in the UFC, seems like it creates one

85
00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:34,520
Speaker 3: of the more obvious like Prada's early Gary late lines.

86
00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:36,360
Speaker 3: What I have in there right now is I have

87
00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:38,960
Speaker 3: Gary in rounds four or five or by decision at

88
00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:41,880
Speaker 3: plus one eighty five, you know, like I think, if

89
00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:45,200
Speaker 3: it goes over, it heavily correlates with Gary winning. But

90
00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:47,200
Speaker 3: I could also see him just getting start shortly by

91
00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:51,039
Speaker 3: pradest because, as you've mentioned, not great striking defense, and

92
00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:53,799
Speaker 3: Gary is usually the taller, longer man in his matchup,

93
00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:55,840
Speaker 3: but he's given up a few inches of reach in

94
00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:58,680
Speaker 3: this one. What I did notice is when he fights

95
00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:01,799
Speaker 3: taller and longer people Neil Magne or Michael venham Page,

96
00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:04,840
Speaker 3: that's when Gary busts out the grappling. And it makes

97
00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:06,760
Speaker 3: a lot of sense because he has a judo background.

98
00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:09,800
Speaker 3: He's a judo black belt, and you get those takedowns

99
00:05:09,800 --> 00:05:12,000
Speaker 3: from the clinch when you do judo, so he wants

100
00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:14,719
Speaker 3: to clinch with these taller people, eliminate their reach and

101
00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:17,640
Speaker 3: then get takedowns. But he got two takedowns against Michael

102
00:05:17,680 --> 00:05:21,440
Speaker 3: Page two takedowns against Neil Magni and then he's the

103
00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:23,680
Speaker 3: only person to ever take down Shofcott, who's also a

104
00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:27,600
Speaker 3: pretty long range fighter. So I bet this last night

105
00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:29,560
Speaker 3: and they've since taken it down. But the over one

106
00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:32,160
Speaker 3: and a half takedowns was plus one twenty on draftings

107
00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:34,880
Speaker 3: or Ian Gary. I think that at anything better than

108
00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:37,320
Speaker 3: minus one twenty or so is a great pick. You

109
00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:40,400
Speaker 3: can also use that on underdog or you know, pick

110
00:05:40,480 --> 00:05:42,960
Speaker 3: them sites like that is an opten. That's actually my

111
00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:44,839
Speaker 3: favorite way to play it. So if that comes back,

112
00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:47,200
Speaker 3: keep an eye out for the fighter props there. Other

113
00:05:47,279 --> 00:05:49,359
Speaker 3: than that, Gary Live makes a ton of sense. It

114
00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:51,720
Speaker 3: eliminates the risk if you don't think you're gonna make

115
00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:54,200
Speaker 3: it through a fourteen fight card that starts at six pm,

116
00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:56,640
Speaker 3: which I'm a little bit nervous about for myself. That

117
00:05:56,680 --> 00:05:58,360
Speaker 3: four or five decision also makes sense.

118
00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:01,960
Speaker 2: Thoughts on like a Gary over one and a half

119
00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:04,240
Speaker 2: takedowns parlayed with the over on rounds. You know, if

120
00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:06,680
Speaker 2: he's getting takedowns, there's probably more minutes coming off the clock.

121
00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:09,680
Speaker 2: I assume that's something I don't place. First off, I'm

122
00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:12,719
Speaker 2: any works, so I can't access takedown prop stuff like

123
00:06:12,720 --> 00:06:15,160
Speaker 2: that at DK, But is that something I assume you

124
00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:17,280
Speaker 2: can parlay together, and if you can, is that'suth get

125
00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:17,760
Speaker 2: to interest you.

126
00:06:18,279 --> 00:06:20,680
Speaker 3: I don't know if they let you do that. Like

127
00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:22,440
Speaker 3: when you click the same game parlay menu, a lot

128
00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:25,360
Speaker 3: of stuff goes away. Can't test it right now. Yeah,

129
00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:27,599
Speaker 3: obviously that makes a ton of sense because he's probably

130
00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:29,520
Speaker 3: not gonna get two takedowns in the first round, so

131
00:06:29,680 --> 00:06:31,640
Speaker 3: like it adds up. I don't know if they'd let

132
00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:33,640
Speaker 3: you do it, and I also don't know if they'd

133
00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:36,320
Speaker 3: give you much better price on that, because I would

134
00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:40,280
Speaker 3: imagine they understand the correlation just between any stat over

135
00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:42,560
Speaker 3: and the fight over. Yeah, it makes a ton of

136
00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:44,240
Speaker 3: sense if it's there. I'll have to check that out

137
00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:46,920
Speaker 3: see if it is an option if and when those

138
00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,280
Speaker 3: come back up. And again, some of the pick um

139
00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:52,279
Speaker 3: sites allow you to do time props as well as that,

140
00:06:52,360 --> 00:06:53,760
Speaker 3: so that might be the better way to do it.

141
00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:56,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, Same game parlay functionality is starting to roll out

142
00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:59,200
Speaker 2: a little bit more for MMA on some of these sites.

143
00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:03,240
Speaker 2: DK has been by far the most accessible for that

144
00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:06,719
Speaker 2: for quite some time, but on other sites espn FanDuel,

145
00:07:08,279 --> 00:07:11,800
Speaker 2: even like the Cambi books. They actually have like pre

146
00:07:11,920 --> 00:07:14,720
Speaker 2: built sgps now like Fighter and over one and a half,

147
00:07:14,720 --> 00:07:16,480
Speaker 2: Fighter End one under one and a half. You can't

148
00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:18,480
Speaker 2: like click around and make your own. But we're getting

149
00:07:18,480 --> 00:07:20,760
Speaker 2: there to move on or a Fight of the night,

150
00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:23,640
Speaker 2: skipping over the comin event. Billy vested to me last

151
00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:25,640
Speaker 2: night and said no interest in talking about the comin event,

152
00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:27,440
Speaker 2: and then of course in the sheet this morning, Billy

153
00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:29,720
Speaker 2: has a vet on the Komain in his hot prop section.

154
00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:31,880
Speaker 2: But we're gonna go with a different fight for our

155
00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:33,280
Speaker 2: front of the night because we were aligned on a

156
00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:36,760
Speaker 2: money line play here and that is on Michelle Herrara

157
00:07:36,800 --> 00:07:39,680
Speaker 2: at minus one forty two against a boost Maga Metov

158
00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:42,600
Speaker 2: who's currently about plus one twenty five. I make Michell

159
00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:45,000
Speaker 2: about minus one sixty. I also like him to win

160
00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:48,480
Speaker 2: inside the distance at plus one fifty and I like

161
00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:51,520
Speaker 2: him live after round one. I like him coming back

162
00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:53,640
Speaker 2: off of a five round fight to a three round

163
00:07:53,680 --> 00:07:56,920
Speaker 2: fight in terms of pacing. Struggled with Fluffy Hernandez late

164
00:07:56,920 --> 00:07:59,920
Speaker 2: in that fight, got out grappled. There not going to

165
00:08:00,080 --> 00:08:03,280
Speaker 2: happen against the boost Maga Metov, who doesn't have that

166
00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:06,720
Speaker 2: daggas Danny style, you know, chain wrestling. Don't love his

167
00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:09,760
Speaker 2: cardio either. Don't love the cardio for either guy, but

168
00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:13,320
Speaker 2: I think Michelle has better cardio and I do favor

169
00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:17,280
Speaker 2: you know, Abu's longer, taller one, taller five and treach advantage.

170
00:08:17,320 --> 00:08:19,840
Speaker 2: But across a fifteen minute fight, I think Michelle is

171
00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:22,240
Speaker 2: the better minute winner, and I think he maybe takes

172
00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:24,440
Speaker 2: over in the second and third round after potentially losing

173
00:08:25,000 --> 00:08:28,119
Speaker 2: round one against Abush's a good starter. So Billy thoughts

174
00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:30,480
Speaker 2: on this fight, where are you betting Michelle Perrero too?

175
00:08:30,680 --> 00:08:32,559
Speaker 2: And then do you agree or not in terms of

176
00:08:32,559 --> 00:08:33,439
Speaker 2: the live angler.

177
00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:37,160
Speaker 3: I think I agree. On the live I would classify

178
00:08:37,720 --> 00:08:41,880
Speaker 3: Abus's cardio is more like a question mark than a

179
00:08:42,280 --> 00:08:44,880
Speaker 3: definitely bad if that makes sense, Like we just haven't

180
00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:47,440
Speaker 3: we haven't seen him super gas out Michelle. We kind

181
00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:50,160
Speaker 3: of know it's bad but not horrible, and you know

182
00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:54,240
Speaker 3: he's been five rounds, so I get that. But Michelle

183
00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:56,360
Speaker 3: Perrer is also a super fast starter, so I don't

184
00:08:56,400 --> 00:08:59,360
Speaker 3: know that you'll necessarily get the better line, Like it's

185
00:08:59,400 --> 00:09:01,320
Speaker 3: one of those wh if you don't want about this

186
00:09:01,360 --> 00:09:03,240
Speaker 3: pre fight, it makes a ton of sense, and if

187
00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:04,920
Speaker 3: it's a worse line, you just say, oh, well I

188
00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:07,400
Speaker 3: missed it and move on with your day. But yeah,

189
00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:10,440
Speaker 3: it's a really fun fight. Both guys very aggressive, you know.

190
00:09:10,480 --> 00:09:13,600
Speaker 3: I think being named Mega Metov always throws off lines

191
00:09:13,640 --> 00:09:16,040
Speaker 3: a little bit. And while he was born in Dagasan

192
00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:18,640
Speaker 3: like dude is mostly from Germany and trains there, so

193
00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:21,320
Speaker 3: he's not hanging out with Habib in the mountains and

194
00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:24,680
Speaker 3: wrestling all day, So I'm not worried about that. Michelle

195
00:09:24,720 --> 00:09:28,000
Speaker 3: just has all the like athleticism and aggression and physical

196
00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:30,640
Speaker 3: tools because he might backflip over your guard or do

197
00:09:30,720 --> 00:09:33,600
Speaker 3: something crazy booz. I don't think has that kind of

198
00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:36,800
Speaker 3: like upside in terms of just the dynamic movements and

199
00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:40,120
Speaker 3: explosive power. You know, he's been dropped a couple times,

200
00:09:40,920 --> 00:09:42,640
Speaker 3: and oh he did get a knockout in it. He

201
00:09:42,760 --> 00:09:45,240
Speaker 3: knocked out Dustin Stolefus in his debut, but since then

202
00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:48,160
Speaker 3: hasn't shown a ton of power and Michelle can start

203
00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:51,440
Speaker 3: to anybody. But yeah, I'm kind of just I wanted

204
00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:54,199
Speaker 3: to be back on Michelle paida. He was kind of

205
00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:57,520
Speaker 3: gonna get Anthony Hernandez's if he didn't beat him in

206
00:09:57,520 --> 00:10:00,199
Speaker 3: the first round, and he made it interesting, like he

207
00:10:00,240 --> 00:10:02,560
Speaker 3: had his moments in the first round, and it just

208
00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:05,440
Speaker 3: feels like a very good by low opportunity against a

209
00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:09,720
Speaker 3: fighter who's you know, matchmaking style is or not matchmaking,

210
00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:13,040
Speaker 3: but his fighting style is like similar, but in my view,

211
00:10:13,040 --> 00:10:15,920
Speaker 3: a lesser version of Beta where they do they have

212
00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:18,240
Speaker 3: kind of the same flaws. But I think the upside

213
00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:19,280
Speaker 3: for Paida's a lot higher.

214
00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:21,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. I think pair the better athlete two

215
00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:23,760
Speaker 2: not as big, but I do think he's the more

216
00:10:23,800 --> 00:10:27,080
Speaker 2: explosive of the two, maybe the more durable of the

217
00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:29,400
Speaker 2: two as well, which could ultimately be the difference. Yeah,

218
00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:31,560
Speaker 2: gonna move on to our favorite underdog sections. There's no

219
00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:34,000
Speaker 2: pre fight underdogs that I bet this week. There is

220
00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:36,080
Speaker 2: one particular live angle that I like quite a bit.

221
00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:38,600
Speaker 2: We're gonna save the same in well Maker Fight for

222
00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:40,199
Speaker 2: best Bets section at the end. I was going to

223
00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:42,280
Speaker 2: talk about it here just because I like a plus

224
00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:44,040
Speaker 2: money prop in that fight. We're gonna save that one

225
00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:46,640
Speaker 2: for the end. Let's talk about Billy's favorite money line

226
00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:49,319
Speaker 2: underdogs for this week and start with Andrey Munez. It's

227
00:10:49,360 --> 00:10:53,200
Speaker 2: currently about plus four hundred against ikram Alis Alis Garaff

228
00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:57,720
Speaker 2: coming off of that knockout loss. To Robert Whitaker, munis

229
00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:01,480
Speaker 2: a very good grappler, very decorated. I've seen him lose

230
00:11:01,480 --> 00:11:03,760
Speaker 2: as a big favorite, have seen him win as a

231
00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:06,120
Speaker 2: big underdog. Why are you taking me Knewes on the

232
00:11:06,120 --> 00:11:08,320
Speaker 2: money line here at four to one instead of betting

233
00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:11,120
Speaker 2: his submission prop at plus eight fifty or his inside

234
00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:12,040
Speaker 2: the distance sides.

235
00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:15,480
Speaker 3: Because I could see him just controlling things on the

236
00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:18,480
Speaker 3: ground and not actually pulling off the submission part of it.

237
00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:20,240
Speaker 3: And there's a couple of these that I got slightly

238
00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:22,760
Speaker 3: better lines on earlier, or much better lines on one.

239
00:11:22,800 --> 00:11:24,960
Speaker 3: I got new News at plus four seventy earlier in

240
00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,240
Speaker 3: the week, gave that out my luck rating. I still

241
00:11:27,280 --> 00:11:29,800
Speaker 3: like it at four hundred. Four hundred is kind of

242
00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:32,920
Speaker 3: my unofficial cutoff for like a guy has a path

243
00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:35,400
Speaker 3: to a victory, it's not a wide path. He doesn't

244
00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:37,240
Speaker 3: have a lot of options. But if I can see

245
00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:39,360
Speaker 3: how they win a fight in my mind and it's

246
00:11:39,400 --> 00:11:41,280
Speaker 3: plus four hundred, it's kind of hard to argue with that.

247
00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:44,040
Speaker 3: In the grappling is just the obvious way. Alis Gaioff

248
00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:47,959
Speaker 3: another Dagistani name, beard but no mustache, but more of

249
00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:50,480
Speaker 3: a striker than he is a grappler, and if you

250
00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:52,280
Speaker 3: look at me and News's record, the only two people

251
00:11:52,280 --> 00:11:55,720
Speaker 3: to beat him in the UFC are extremely strong grapplers

252
00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:59,040
Speaker 3: in Paul Craig and Brendan Allen. Outside of that, his

253
00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:01,600
Speaker 3: grappling is one him every fight he's been in, So

254
00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:04,760
Speaker 3: there's a path there. It's not a wide path. This

255
00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:07,600
Speaker 3: one could look horrible in thirty seconds if you can't

256
00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:11,640
Speaker 3: get a takedown, but that path is there. Also. This

257
00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:14,320
Speaker 3: is another one. His over half a takedown prop was

258
00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:16,400
Speaker 3: north of plus two hundred before they took those down,

259
00:12:16,440 --> 00:12:19,160
Speaker 3: So keep an eye on those. But yeah, that's my

260
00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:21,800
Speaker 3: thoughts on your knees. The other one I took early

261
00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:23,679
Speaker 3: in the week. I wouldn't actually take this one now,

262
00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:26,920
Speaker 3: but Jimmy Flick was plus two to seventy five on Sunday.

263
00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:29,040
Speaker 3: I got him at plus two thirty five. He's now

264
00:12:29,040 --> 00:12:33,920
Speaker 3: plus one fifty against Matt Schnell. This is super binary

265
00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:36,160
Speaker 3: fight where I think either Schnell Knox Flick out or

266
00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:39,160
Speaker 3: Flick pulls off some crazy submission. You could probably take

267
00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:41,440
Speaker 3: the submission there. I think that one makes more sense

268
00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:43,640
Speaker 3: with that line coming back in. I don't think it's

269
00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:45,360
Speaker 3: a great price. I haven't looked in the last day

270
00:12:45,400 --> 00:12:47,760
Speaker 3: or two, but that's the other one I had earlier

271
00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:49,760
Speaker 3: in the week. If you looked at that fight at all, Sean.

272
00:12:51,160 --> 00:12:53,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, no bet on that one for me. Eileen Schnell,

273
00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:59,319
Speaker 2: I might prefer. It's weird to say so. The model

274
00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:01,040
Speaker 2: wants me to bet the over that goes to the decision,

275
00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:04,400
Speaker 2: which I'm not doing. There's just no way. Both of

276
00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:07,959
Speaker 2: these guys like like to quit after round one. Neither

277
00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:10,480
Speaker 2: of them have good chins. I think Flick did go

278
00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:13,120
Speaker 2: to a decision in a fight recently that like everybody

279
00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:14,920
Speaker 2: was betting the under the ends inside of the distance

280
00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:17,800
Speaker 2: against was it Nate Manes. He ended up surviving all

281
00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:21,520
Speaker 2: fifteen minutes, So yeah, it's possible, you know. And it's

282
00:13:21,559 --> 00:13:23,560
Speaker 2: a big number on the GTD oft plus three hundred.

283
00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:26,960
Speaker 2: I'm not not super interested in betting it. It's just

284
00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:29,839
Speaker 2: a funny fight and it's great matchmaking because Flick has

285
00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:33,000
Speaker 2: no chin. Schnell is very good technical boxing but doesn't

286
00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:34,640
Speaker 2: have a ton of power, but he's enough power to

287
00:13:34,640 --> 00:13:37,800
Speaker 2: put Flick away, and Schnell has no chin. Flick has

288
00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:40,600
Speaker 2: no power, but Schnell the past two times I believe

289
00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:44,040
Speaker 2: he's been submitted, tapped out with both hands, didn't fight

290
00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:47,240
Speaker 2: the hands, tapped out with both hands together. So it's

291
00:13:47,360 --> 00:13:51,000
Speaker 2: awesome matchmaking. I'm really looking forward to watching this one.

292
00:13:51,440 --> 00:13:53,640
Speaker 2: I would imagine this is like one hundred percent ownership

293
00:13:53,640 --> 00:13:54,679
Speaker 2: of DFS for you, this fight.

294
00:13:57,240 --> 00:14:00,200
Speaker 3: So it's tricky because the line movement makes it like

295
00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:02,640
Speaker 3: you almost have to play Flick because he's plus one

296
00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:06,319
Speaker 3: fifty but like the cheapest fighter on the card. Okay,

297
00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:09,000
Speaker 3: but it's hard because like if he loses, he's gonna

298
00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:12,200
Speaker 3: score zero, so like I'm not quite there. It is

299
00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:14,480
Speaker 3: the fight that I put in my DFS breakdown is

300
00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:16,760
Speaker 3: the like I want both sides of, because Snell is

301
00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:19,040
Speaker 3: going to be super unknowned since he's way too expensive

302
00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:22,680
Speaker 3: for his money line, but also could not flick out

303
00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:24,960
Speaker 3: in fourteen seconds and no one would be all that shock.

304
00:14:25,080 --> 00:14:28,120
Speaker 3: So it's an interesting like strategy angle there where Flick

305
00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:31,200
Speaker 3: on paper projects much better relative to his price. No

306
00:14:31,200 --> 00:14:33,320
Speaker 3: one's going to be on Schnell. I see the angle

307
00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:36,120
Speaker 3: for both guys. It's scary though, because you know, like

308
00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:38,240
Speaker 3: loser probably scores nothing.

309
00:14:39,200 --> 00:14:41,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think the winner looks minus nine hundred in

310
00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:44,480
Speaker 2: this fight probably ultimately or or they look like they

311
00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:46,520
Speaker 2: were plus nine hundred for a few minutes, and then

312
00:14:46,520 --> 00:14:47,960
Speaker 2: they look minus nine hundred.

313
00:14:47,760 --> 00:14:50,920
Speaker 3: After the back sermission out of nowhere.

314
00:14:51,360 --> 00:14:53,640
Speaker 2: Yes, yes, I mean that I was at the Schnell

315
00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:57,280
Speaker 2: Sumadergy fight, which is not only the best fight I've

316
00:14:57,280 --> 00:14:58,920
Speaker 2: ever seen in person, it's one of the best sporting

317
00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:01,600
Speaker 2: events I've ever seen him Just an absolute blood bat

318
00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:03,880
Speaker 2: between those two. So I always get excited for Matt

319
00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:07,360
Speaker 2: Snell fights and Jimmy Flick, I mean the flying triangle

320
00:15:07,400 --> 00:15:09,720
Speaker 2: like he's he's a very creative submission artist as well,

321
00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:11,080
Speaker 2: really looking.

322
00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:14,960
Speaker 3: As it could be the last fight you have an

323
00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:17,440
Speaker 3: opportunity they'd excited for if this one doesn't go well.

324
00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:22,240
Speaker 2: I think it essentially it could be a double retirement fight.

325
00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:24,880
Speaker 2: Flick retired and came back. I don't know if they

326
00:15:24,920 --> 00:15:26,880
Speaker 2: both have like one more fight in their contract and

327
00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:28,560
Speaker 2: you know they're just fighting it out and this is

328
00:15:28,600 --> 00:15:31,960
Speaker 2: this is it. Snell's also like complained about fighter pay

329
00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:36,040
Speaker 2: in the past. Organization doesn't love him necessarily. So yeah,

330
00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:38,480
Speaker 2: it's it's a really fun, really fun fight. Could be

331
00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:41,520
Speaker 2: a double retirement fight and not one I'm particularly interested

332
00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:43,280
Speaker 2: in betting on. If I if I was to pick

333
00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:44,640
Speaker 2: one bet, you know, and you told me I have

334
00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:47,400
Speaker 2: a free bet. Where's their value? I might say Schnell

335
00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:51,120
Speaker 2: by decision or Schnell decision only, but that's probably like

336
00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:53,200
Speaker 2: mine is not under but yeah, Snell by decision. I

337
00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:54,800
Speaker 2: think you know, if I had to bet this fight,

338
00:15:55,880 --> 00:15:57,960
Speaker 2: Flick would run away, Flick could get hurt, run away.

339
00:15:58,000 --> 00:15:59,720
Speaker 2: Schnell may not have the power to put them away.

340
00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:01,760
Speaker 2: I think that like might be the one value back

341
00:16:01,760 --> 00:16:03,240
Speaker 2: but passed for me.

342
00:16:03,400 --> 00:16:05,880
Speaker 3: And to be clear, I wouldn't take the Flick money

343
00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:07,800
Speaker 3: line now. I just thought it was an interesting fight

344
00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:10,520
Speaker 3: to talk about it, and also wanted to again remind

345
00:16:10,560 --> 00:16:13,040
Speaker 3: everyone on Monday afternoons to go check some of these

346
00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:16,400
Speaker 3: out because I often get much better prices there. Would

347
00:16:16,400 --> 00:16:17,440
Speaker 3: you one more underdog?

348
00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:19,880
Speaker 2: Would you take Flick inside the distance of plus you

349
00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:20,720
Speaker 2: fifty at this point?

350
00:16:22,840 --> 00:16:25,080
Speaker 3: Probably not, But I've got some like you know, anchoring

351
00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:27,120
Speaker 3: bias there, because that's pretty much the line I got

352
00:16:27,120 --> 00:16:28,920
Speaker 3: his money line at earlier in the week. So like,

353
00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:31,600
Speaker 3: it's hard for me to like reverse engineer. Had I

354
00:16:31,680 --> 00:16:33,680
Speaker 3: not done that, what I would think? I mean, sure, like,

355
00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:36,120
Speaker 3: if you really want about this fight, it makes actually

356
00:16:36,160 --> 00:16:38,760
Speaker 3: like here, Schnell decision That makes a lot of sense too.

357
00:16:38,800 --> 00:16:40,240
Speaker 3: If you really want about this one and missed the

358
00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:41,040
Speaker 3: good lines.

359
00:16:40,840 --> 00:16:42,400
Speaker 2: Don't make me bet that, Billy. I don't want to

360
00:16:42,400 --> 00:16:45,880
Speaker 2: do it. Let's talk about your phone. Underdog Chelsea Chandler

361
00:16:45,880 --> 00:16:48,600
Speaker 2: plus you sixty against Jocelyn Edwards, a couple of band

362
00:16:48,640 --> 00:16:51,400
Speaker 2: weights who used to compete at featherweight. Featherweight division has

363
00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:56,960
Speaker 2: been eliminated in women's UH divisions in the UFCUH. Both

364
00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:58,880
Speaker 2: of these fighters have missweighted a number of times, both

365
00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:02,720
Speaker 2: on weight on Friday for Saturday's matchup. You like Chandler

366
00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:04,760
Speaker 2: the underdog at plus two sixty. I think she came

367
00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:07,840
Speaker 2: in as like a decent prospect into the UFC and

368
00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:11,639
Speaker 2: she's looked awful since. Edwards has continually gotten better, but

369
00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:14,239
Speaker 2: has been in a number of split decisions throughout her

370
00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:16,600
Speaker 2: UOC career, and I imagine that is playing into your

371
00:17:16,640 --> 00:17:17,760
Speaker 2: bet on channel here a little bit.

372
00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:21,480
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, she has a real naked choke win

373
00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:24,359
Speaker 3: over Tamyris Vidal, who is like the lowest of the

374
00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:27,680
Speaker 3: low in the UFC Just division, but her last two

375
00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:31,520
Speaker 3: wins before that were split decisions. That's Edwards. The biggest

376
00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:33,200
Speaker 3: point here, though, is it's a fight that's plus four

377
00:17:33,280 --> 00:17:35,639
Speaker 3: hundred to go to a decision, and one fighter is

378
00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:38,399
Speaker 3: you know, a huge underdog, which kind of always want

379
00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:41,879
Speaker 3: to take that, and it's Chelsea Chandler plus three and

380
00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,399
Speaker 3: a half is favored despite being a plus two to

381
00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:47,760
Speaker 3: fifty underdog on the actual money line. So the books

382
00:17:47,800 --> 00:17:49,560
Speaker 3: are telling you we think this is going to be close.

383
00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:52,679
Speaker 3: I just like having those, especially in these women's fights

384
00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:56,119
Speaker 3: that might have a decent amount of grappling, where you

385
00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:58,320
Speaker 3: know the judges probably aren't going to have the easiest

386
00:17:58,359 --> 00:18:00,000
Speaker 3: time in deciding who wins, so you can win the

387
00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,280
Speaker 3: one even if you don't deserve to win it. And

388
00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:05,280
Speaker 3: I don't think Chandler is that, Like her losses are

389
00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:08,960
Speaker 3: Yana Santos and Norma Dumont, which you know, higher level

390
00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:12,920
Speaker 3: fighters than the people well, and then Edwards is lost

391
00:18:12,960 --> 00:18:15,960
Speaker 3: to Perez and Nora Connoli, so like they've both lost

392
00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:19,639
Speaker 3: to anyone kind of decent and beaten lower level competition.

393
00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:22,360
Speaker 3: I just don't see them skill wise is that far

394
00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:25,800
Speaker 3: of a gap. And I think Chelsea Chandler is maybe

395
00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:29,119
Speaker 3: a little bit younger. No, she's thirty four, okay, new

396
00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:31,359
Speaker 3: to the UFC, but on the older side. Not quite

397
00:18:31,359 --> 00:18:34,240
Speaker 3: past the age curve yet, but yeah, I just think

398
00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:36,520
Speaker 3: this one should be lyned closer. The books are telling

399
00:18:36,560 --> 00:18:38,000
Speaker 3: you it's going to be a close fight with that

400
00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:41,640
Speaker 3: point spread line, Let's take a little sprinkle plus two fifty.

401
00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:45,000
Speaker 2: Move on her a top proct section. I'm gonna let

402
00:18:45,040 --> 00:18:46,439
Speaker 2: Billy kick it off here with the fight between mn

403
00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:49,920
Speaker 2: Yang Jang and Anthony Smith. Retirement fight for Anthony Smith,

404
00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:51,720
Speaker 2: or at least the first of what will be several

405
00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:54,320
Speaker 2: retirement fights for him, because I think this is his

406
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:57,480
Speaker 2: first official retirement. I'm sure he'll end up coming back

407
00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:00,159
Speaker 2: at some point. But Jiang has been knocked out in

408
00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:02,400
Speaker 2: round one in the past. I think Brentson Ribero did it.

409
00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:05,359
Speaker 2: Also happened multiple times to him regionally a right he

410
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:07,000
Speaker 2: might have knocked out Reberto. I can't remember how that

411
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:09,520
Speaker 2: fight went. He love getting knocked out and run one

412
00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:12,200
Speaker 2: and love knocking opponents out in run one and Jang

413
00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:14,960
Speaker 2: knockout regionally in round one. He looks like an absolute unit.

414
00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:18,080
Speaker 2: He's huge, he hits hard, he's smiling as he's getting

415
00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:20,240
Speaker 2: hit like he seems to enjoy being in the cage.

416
00:19:21,119 --> 00:19:24,520
Speaker 2: But his grappling is a huge mystery. If Anthony says

417
00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:27,240
Speaker 2: Smith clubs him with one overhead and like puts them down,

418
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:29,639
Speaker 2: I'm not going to be stunned. Despite the fact that

419
00:19:29,680 --> 00:19:31,960
Speaker 2: Anthony Smith looks cletely watched, I just don't think Jang

420
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:35,920
Speaker 2: is a good chin. But you're on Smith by decision

421
00:19:36,080 --> 00:19:39,280
Speaker 2: at ten to one, considering Jang's grappling is a complete unknown.

422
00:19:39,320 --> 00:19:40,679
Speaker 2: This could be a good bat. Tell me why you

423
00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:41,280
Speaker 2: like this one.

424
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:44,200
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't love this one, and I feel

425
00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:46,600
Speaker 3: like I should apologize for talking about this fight after

426
00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:48,120
Speaker 3: telling you I didn't want to talk about this fight

427
00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:50,480
Speaker 3: because Draftings took down all the takedown props. I had

428
00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:52,760
Speaker 3: a bunch of takedown props I wanted to talk about here,

429
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:54,480
Speaker 3: and I don't know if they're coming back, so it

430
00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:58,560
Speaker 3: kind of forced my hand. I don't love this bat,

431
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:02,639
Speaker 3: but like I almost that Smith's submission line should pretty

432
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:04,360
Speaker 3: much just be his money line because I don't see

433
00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:07,240
Speaker 3: any other way against this done here. He's got no durability,

434
00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:10,280
Speaker 3: hasn't really shown much power, and I don't know what

435
00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,280
Speaker 3: feels like a decade. It hasn't been that long since

436
00:20:12,280 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 3: he hurt someone striking, but it's it's been a while.

437
00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:19,879
Speaker 3: His last knockdown was twenty twenty one. His last knockdout

438
00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:21,400
Speaker 3: was twenty twenty one, and he still won that fight

439
00:20:21,440 --> 00:20:24,440
Speaker 3: by submission, so like, that's kind of just his only

440
00:20:24,560 --> 00:20:27,639
Speaker 3: route here, and he's plus three fifty plus four hundred

441
00:20:27,720 --> 00:20:30,199
Speaker 3: range is a money line, and we're getting ten to

442
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,840
Speaker 3: one on the submission. So yeah, I mean again, I

443
00:20:32,840 --> 00:20:35,159
Speaker 3: don't I'm not super excited about this. I kind of

444
00:20:35,200 --> 00:20:36,720
Speaker 3: don't even want to watch this fight because I have

445
00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 3: a feeling it's going to be pretty ugly. But if

446
00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 3: you're gonna you know, zero point one point two and

447
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:43,520
Speaker 3: it's done of ten to one, bet that's root for

448
00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:44,959
Speaker 3: the old guy to get one on his way out

449
00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:47,840
Speaker 3: the door. And yeah, it's about it for me fight.

450
00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:50,960
Speaker 2: I like canoncide a distance demand Black Cheer against Kellye Alatang.

451
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:53,920
Speaker 2: That's about minus one oh six. I projected this closer

452
00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:56,880
Speaker 2: to minus one fifty. Black Cheer is very bad striking

453
00:20:56,880 --> 00:21:00,399
Speaker 2: defense defense strikes at forty seven percent. He's excellent jujitsu,

454
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:04,879
Speaker 2: really good powerful grappler, ale Tank likes to brawl. He

455
00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:07,479
Speaker 2: could catch Black Seer in the pocket. If he doesn't,

456
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:09,760
Speaker 2: I think he gets taken down, and I think Blacksheer

457
00:21:09,800 --> 00:21:13,359
Speaker 2: is a good chance of finishing the fight via submission. Again,

458
00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:15,919
Speaker 2: I projected that minus one fifty ten inside the distance

459
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,720
Speaker 2: currently around. To pick a price, I'm probably gonna have

460
00:21:18,800 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 2: to bet that one. Really any thoughts on blacksh'er now, think.

461
00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 3: I haven't looked yet, but I just want to see

462
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,879
Speaker 3: what the specific submission method of victory line is at

463
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 3: bet MGM. And if twisters like four hundred to one

464
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:32,800
Speaker 3: or something crazy, you gotta bet that he's got the

465
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 3: one win by twister, And I'm not if you watch

466
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:36,720
Speaker 3: some of his older fights, like he was trying to

467
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 3: set it up in other fights, which probably means that

468
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 3: the book is out. And for those that don't know,

469
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 3: if you have any suspicion that a twister is coming,

470
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:47,159
Speaker 3: it's extremely easy to avoid, Like if you think the

471
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 3: guy knows that at all, Like you pretty much have

472
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:51,600
Speaker 3: to put yourself in it. But the way you put

473
00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:53,439
Speaker 3: yourself in it is alslow how you get out of

474
00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:55,920
Speaker 3: someone being on your back. So if you don't expect it,

475
00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:59,160
Speaker 3: it's really effective, and he probably expects, like HALLI Tang,

476
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:01,879
Speaker 3: he probably expect at this point. But if they have

477
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 3: some crazy line out there and you have like five

478
00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:06,960
Speaker 3: bucks that you don't really care about. That's that's my

479
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:09,160
Speaker 3: favorite way about this one, because it's how awesome would

480
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:12,360
Speaker 3: it be if he gets a second twister, you know, talking.

481
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:14,560
Speaker 2: About David Nama against Sugar gig At Chakad's in the

482
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:17,400
Speaker 2: public projections that I use to create my projections. This week,

483
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,199
Speaker 2: Giga was a very popular underdog, everybody picking Gigo to

484
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,240
Speaker 2: win the fight fifty to sixty percent of the time

485
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 2: despite being underdog. Odds uh if Onama doesn't grapple here,

486
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:30,119
Speaker 2: If David Orama doesn't grapple, I don't know how he

487
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 2: wins this fight or covers his line comfortably aside from

488
00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,680
Speaker 2: knocking Giga out. But in order to win an extended fight,

489
00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 2: I think he needs top time grappling upside to win

490
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 2: against a more decorated technical striker. So even though my

491
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:44,920
Speaker 2: model's pointing to value on Onama, saying he should be

492
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,199
Speaker 2: closer to minus two hundred, I'm a little skeptical to

493
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:50,400
Speaker 2: bet him on the money line. I'm much rather bet

494
00:22:50,440 --> 00:22:53,199
Speaker 2: Onama inside the distance of plus two fifteen or by

495
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 2: ko at plus four or fifty. Would rather take the

496
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 2: i TD just because he's gotten subistions in the past,

497
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 2: he's attempting subbistions more and I do think he needs

498
00:23:01,600 --> 00:23:04,920
Speaker 2: grappling in order to win this fight comfortably. So, Billy,

499
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 2: how do you see Onama and Giga Chad's playing out

500
00:23:07,240 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 2: Giga missweight today? I'm not sure if I mentioned that

501
00:23:09,680 --> 00:23:12,800
Speaker 2: off the top, but Giga did missweight at Friday's way Ins.

502
00:23:12,840 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 2: The lone guy to missweight thus far is the older guy.

503
00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 2: So do you think that ultimately impacts the fight in

504
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,240
Speaker 2: the later rounds? And then in general, how would you

505
00:23:20,240 --> 00:23:21,920
Speaker 2: bet this one? Yeah?

506
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 3: I love your inside the distance line here. Not only

507
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:26,639
Speaker 3: is Giga older, but he's fought once a year since

508
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,880
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, which is like concerning as these guys

509
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 3: get up there because you wonder, you know their health,

510
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,560
Speaker 3: their body whatever, not allowing them to fight more often.

511
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:36,879
Speaker 3: And he's also taken a lot of strikes in his

512
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,439
Speaker 3: recent fights, Like if you look at the stats, his

513
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:41,879
Speaker 3: early UFC fights did not take a lot of damage,

514
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 3: and then he got hit one hundred and forty four

515
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,960
Speaker 3: times by Calvin Cator, sixty two times by Bruce Lee

516
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:49,960
Speaker 3: Roy Alex Caceres, which is probably the most concerning of these,

517
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 3: and then sixty one Times by Arnold Allen. There's an

518
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,440
Speaker 3: argument that at least while he's trash, on Nama hits

519
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:57,480
Speaker 3: harder than all of those guys. So I wouldn't be

520
00:23:57,600 --> 00:23:59,880
Speaker 3: too shocked by on I'm an knockout and then Plu,

521
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,359
Speaker 3: like you said, he if he can get it to

522
00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 3: the ground, probably has the grappling upside, and i'ma just

523
00:24:05,440 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 3: He's like a small Michelle Pete. He comes out, does

524
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,800
Speaker 3: a lot of stuff. If it doesn't work, doesn't always

525
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 3: go too well for him. So I like that inside

526
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:16,000
Speaker 3: the distance, I could see a case for Giga Live

527
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 3: if Onama isn't able to put him away and over extend.

528
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 3: That's a little bit scared with the misted weight because

529
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:24,680
Speaker 3: I haven't looked at him on the scale. You don't

530
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:26,680
Speaker 3: know if that's a missed weight because you're like, man,

531
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:28,360
Speaker 3: I didn't feel like cutting the last two pounds. I'm

532
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:31,159
Speaker 3: just gonna feel great or like I killed myself to

533
00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 3: try to get there. I'm still working really hard. It

534
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 3: just didn't happen, and you're going to be broken. So

535
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 3: if not for that, I would think about Giga Live.

536
00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:40,760
Speaker 3: I'm probably just gonna stay away from it. Though with

537
00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 3: that factor, thrown in.

538
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I saw he misweight. I didn't physically see what

539
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,160
Speaker 2: he looked like if he you know, drained or looked

540
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:49,920
Speaker 2: particularly like malnourished or anything. So we'll take a look

541
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,920
Speaker 2: at Giga. I'm giving the weight. Miss. You know, Nama

542
00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:55,360
Speaker 2: does kind of slow down after starting fast given the weight,

543
00:24:55,400 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 2: Miss agree, I'm less inclined to bet Giga live in

544
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 2: that spot, but Oama inside the distance definitely caught my attention.

545
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 2: Plus two fifteen. Let's transition to our best bets as

546
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:08,920
Speaker 2: I continue to talk about props on a couple of

547
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,240
Speaker 2: these fights, but there's three underdog money lines that I like.

548
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:15,280
Speaker 2: I like prop bets on two of those fighters. Billy

549
00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 2: co signs on one of them, and then we've got

550
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,040
Speaker 2: one more fight we're going to talk about where Billy

551
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 2: has a money line play and I have a prop

552
00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:24,400
Speaker 2: as well. So with that, let's talk about Evan Elder

553
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,920
Speaker 2: against Gage Young. Elder I believe is a late replacement

554
00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:31,480
Speaker 2: for Young's opponent, who was sent to prison potentially for

555
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 2: doing some mets up things. Elder, I think though, is

556
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,919
Speaker 2: just like a better, bigger version of Gaige. Yup, He's taller, longer,

557
00:25:38,080 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 2: one or taller two inches longer. He's the more fluid

558
00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:43,879
Speaker 2: of the two. On the feet, I think he moves better.

559
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 2: I think he's more technical. So I don't really see

560
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 2: what Young has in order to threaten Ellen Elder unless

561
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:55,360
Speaker 2: I've completely misassessed their relative talent level. He was competitive

562
00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 2: against killing style killed on Contender Series, but he was

563
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 2: also taken down nine times in that. Elder looked pretty

564
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:04,919
Speaker 2: good in Colorado, Cardio hold up in Denver. So overall,

565
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 2: I think have an Elder kind of an underrated guy,

566
00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 2: pretty boring name, you know, sort of flies under the radar.

567
00:26:10,080 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 2: But minus two hundred to me, seemed like value. And

568
00:26:13,280 --> 00:26:15,440
Speaker 2: then I like him actually to win inside the distance

569
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 2: at about plus three point fifty seems like more of

570
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:21,360
Speaker 2: a point fighter. But there could be a talent gap

571
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 2: here and I could see him pulling off the finish.

572
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 2: Thoughts on Elder engage John Billy.

573
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was struggling with this fight, and then I

574
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 3: went back and read my Contender series breakdown on Gage Young,

575
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 3: and what I wrote was he's kind of sloppy in

576
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:39,719
Speaker 3: the striking. His striking is, you know, pretty raw, like

577
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 3: he you know, will throw hard here and there, but

578
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 3: doesn't really look like he has a lot of experience

579
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,720
Speaker 3: in there, but he's an American wrestler who, if he

580
00:26:46,760 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 3: can just make it a grind it out wrestling match,

581
00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 3: has a shot to win. And then he got taken

582
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:54,359
Speaker 3: down nine times by a tall, skinny Australian striker. And

583
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 3: when that happened, I was like, so the thing that

584
00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 3: we thought you were best at isn't working against a

585
00:27:00,160 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 3: who's more of a striker. I don't really know what

586
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:06,199
Speaker 3: kind of upside you have here, like how you win fights.

587
00:27:06,680 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 3: And yeah, Ivan Alder, he's two and two in the UFC,

588
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 3: kind of got a rough start. He's been fine, right

589
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 3: like as you put it, you know, boring name. I

590
00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:18,280
Speaker 3: think he's the next Like I don't know Nico Price

591
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,480
Speaker 3: or Tim Means or guys just gonna stick around forever

592
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 3: and be like roughly five hundred. But if you're gonna

593
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:25,960
Speaker 3: be that guy, you got to be late minute or

594
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,680
Speaker 3: last minute replacements who came in off a Contender series loss.

595
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:30,880
Speaker 3: And I think he does that. I haven't thought too

596
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:34,040
Speaker 3: hard about inside the distance versus decision or any of that,

597
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,800
Speaker 3: but yeah, you know, it's a little bit pricey around

598
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:39,880
Speaker 3: two to one, but I'm fine with that I have another.

599
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:45,360
Speaker 2: Roberto Romero. I make him about minus one fifty. He's

600
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 2: currently minus one twenty five. Really like his aggression, his

601
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 2: pressure heavy style. Timothy Kuamba, I don't think is necessarily

602
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 2: UFC level. He won a decision on Contender Series that

603
00:27:56,560 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 2: he probably didn't deserve. He's a local kid from Las Vegas.

604
00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:01,960
Speaker 2: Trains in Las Vegas had a lot of people in

605
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 2: the building there. They've since changed the rules on how

606
00:28:05,080 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 2: many people you're allowed to have in the building for

607
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:09,760
Speaker 2: your Contender Series fights. It was very loud for Timothy Kwamba,

608
00:28:10,119 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 2: and I think that did ultimately influence the judges. Has

609
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:16,480
Speaker 2: not impressed me since he's been in the UFC tends

610
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 2: the backup, and I think the forward optics for Romero

611
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 2: here are going to ultimately get his hand raised. Also,

612
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:24,399
Speaker 2: being outside of Vegas, Kama not going to get that

613
00:28:24,480 --> 00:28:27,240
Speaker 2: hometown judging. But I do think he's durable. I think

614
00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 2: both guys are durable. I like Romero by decision at

615
00:28:29,840 --> 00:28:32,280
Speaker 2: about plus two thirty, and then I also like him

616
00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 2: on the money line at minus one twenty five. Billy,

617
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:37,199
Speaker 2: this is a bet that you're co signing on. Why

618
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:40,200
Speaker 2: do you like Ramera too? Yeah?

619
00:28:40,240 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 3: I mean you hit most of it. Timmy Kwamba is,

620
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:44,840
Speaker 3: you know, officially one and two in the promotion cond

621
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 3: of Contender Series, but he's not. He's zero and three.

622
00:28:47,280 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 3: And even though he won that fight on the Contender Series,

623
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 3: they didn't immediately sign him. Like he only got into

624
00:28:51,720 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 3: the UFC because they needed I don't know exactly what

625
00:28:54,600 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 3: the circumstances were, but he fought. His UFC debut was

626
00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 3: eight days after he fought somewhere else, so that was

627
00:28:59,880 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 3: the planned, right, Like, no one agrees to do that

628
00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 3: on purpose. Yeah, I just don't think he's especially good.

629
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:08,800
Speaker 3: I don't think Romero is great either, but he just

630
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 3: he does more right. He's willing to get in there

631
00:29:11,400 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 3: in exchange and like push the pace, and that looks

632
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 3: really good for the judges, especially with a live crowd,

633
00:29:16,160 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 3: because he's just he's doing more stuff. Like I wish

634
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 3: I had a more articulate way to phrase that, but

635
00:29:21,200 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 3: sometimes just the more active fighter who looks like they're

636
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 3: trying to finish the fight versus just kind of hang

637
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:29,960
Speaker 3: out in a fight for fifteen minutes, is who's gonna

638
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:32,840
Speaker 3: get the decision? Plus I would say Romero has most

639
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:36,240
Speaker 3: of the finishing outside. So between those two things, is

640
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 3: it still right around even money ivn't checks? Yeah, yeah,

641
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 3: minus one twenty, minus one thirty on Romero. I think

642
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 3: he should be in that like of an Elder kind

643
00:29:47,040 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 3: of range. Price wise.

644
00:29:48,600 --> 00:29:50,960
Speaker 2: He's actually creeped up to minus one thirty this morning,

645
00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 2: and like I said, I made that minus one fifty.

646
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 2: That's one I would jump on sooner rather than later.

647
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 2: Kwama really hasn't shown much to justify being a guy

648
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:00,560
Speaker 2: that you actually want to put your money on at

649
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 2: this level. One other favorite money line that I like,

650
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:05,760
Speaker 2: I'm not sure I'm going to play this straight. If

651
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 2: I'm gonna end up parlaying this up with Evan Elder,

652
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 2: what I'm going to do with it? But Randy Brown,

653
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:12,840
Speaker 2: I make minus three point fifty against Nick Delby. We

654
00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 2: love Nick Delby on this podcast, catching big underdog tickets

655
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 2: for us, but this is a difficult matchup for him

656
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 2: against the guy who's much quicker, longer, and can grapple.

657
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:25,800
Speaker 2: You know, Brown four inch reach advantage, four inch, is taller.

658
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 2: He's not going to get held up against the fence

659
00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 2: for long stretches like Dalby wants to. Delby lands a

660
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 2: takedown somehow, Brown is not going to get stuck on

661
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:35,760
Speaker 2: his back for significant stretches. In fact, he may be

662
00:30:35,760 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 2: even able to submit Dolby off of his back. He's

663
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 2: very good, very underrated jiu jitsu. But on the feet,

664
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 2: the footwork, the movement, the sniping ability. I think Randy

665
00:30:44,160 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 2: Brown dances his circles around around Nick Dlby here potentially

666
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:52,400
Speaker 2: even covers a point spread, a minus three and a

667
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:54,520
Speaker 2: half point spread. Maybe that's the direction I'll go. You know,

668
00:30:54,600 --> 00:30:57,160
Speaker 2: laying a point spread on Browndlby tends to fight close,

669
00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:00,800
Speaker 2: but I think Brown is significantly more finishing up and

670
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 2: likelier to win a wide decision. Thoughts on the Brown

671
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:06,360
Speaker 2: and Nick Delby fight, Billy, I know, tough to bet

672
00:31:06,360 --> 00:31:08,440
Speaker 2: against your boy. Nick Dlby's kind of better.

673
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 3: I'm absolutely not going to, and I'm still mad that

674
00:31:12,960 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 3: he was. I would argue robbed against not facrit Dianoff

675
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 3: in their last Fighters plus two ninety underdog probably won it.

676
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:23,160
Speaker 3: I don't know why Renot is by far the luckiest

677
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 3: fighter ever in the UFC, Like, I don't understand what

678
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:28,560
Speaker 3: the judges see in this guy. I know you're still

679
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 3: mad about the Carlos Leal Renot fight. Yeah, I mean,

680
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 3: everything you said in this one makes a lot of sense,

681
00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 3: and Nicholas Delby is like forty and a half or

682
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:39,280
Speaker 3: something like that.

683
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:41,480
Speaker 2: So one, yeah, yeah.

684
00:31:41,320 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 3: It's got to fall off at some point. But he's

685
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:45,719
Speaker 3: on what I'm referring to as a five fight win

686
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:48,960
Speaker 3: streak because he got robbed and he somehow looks better

687
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:52,160
Speaker 3: as he gets older, which you know, you always wonder

688
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 3: in the post Usada era how that happens, because dude

689
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 3: looks great. Cardio is great.

690
00:31:57,520 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 2: I don't know.

691
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 3: I'm not saying anything. He's speculate. I'm not betting against

692
00:32:01,840 --> 00:32:03,840
Speaker 3: Nick Delby, though that was a long way of saying,

693
00:32:03,880 --> 00:32:06,040
Speaker 3: you can't make me do it, and I won't until

694
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 3: he actually looks old once we're.

695
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 2: Run by a Danish company, Nick Delby a Danish fighter,

696
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 2: Billy taking the path of leaf resistance in terms of

697
00:32:12,720 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 2: keeping his job with that pick there.

698
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 3: I'm also not betting on him, I will say, like,

699
00:32:16,440 --> 00:32:19,680
Speaker 3: because your points were compelling enough, and I also wasn't

700
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,240
Speaker 3: going to bet on anyway, but I'm not going to

701
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:24,480
Speaker 3: bat against him like that's that's a bridge too far.

702
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:26,840
Speaker 2: Last fight, I wanted to highlight we could see if

703
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 2: there's anything else that we missed before we sign off.

704
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 2: But Cameron Samon against, I'm forgetting Wellmaker's first name. I

705
00:32:34,160 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 2: won't say Matthew, but I know it's not Matthew. Yes,

706
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 2: Malcolm Wellmaker. For some reason his head in my head,

707
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 2: it's Matthew Wellmaker. I do not know why Wallmaker coming

708
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 2: off a Contender series. I went back and read your

709
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:50,720
Speaker 2: Contender Series preview of the Wellmaker fight. You said, quote,

710
00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:52,360
Speaker 2: it's easy to see how he's been involved in a

711
00:32:52,360 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 2: couple of close decisions. His low output makes it hard

712
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 2: to definitively win rounds. He's a very good athlete. He's powerful,

713
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 2: He's two inches tall. He is a foreign treat advantage

714
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 2: over Cameron Salmon, but Salmon is much more regressive. He's

715
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 2: going to put out much more volume and across a

716
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 2: fifteen minute fight. I think he can rally likely in

717
00:33:10,800 --> 00:33:13,680
Speaker 2: the second or third rounds to win a decision. I

718
00:33:13,800 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 2: like Cameron Samon live. I think that may be the

719
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 2: best price point on him. Maybe you could justify a

720
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 2: pre fight bet on him. My model likes the under

721
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 2: or the ends inside the distance between these two. But

722
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 2: plus one fourteen that said, considering well Maker's low volume,

723
00:33:27,360 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 2: the fact that he's never I mean, he's only lost once.

724
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:33,000
Speaker 2: It was an amateur he got submitted via armbar. Has

725
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 2: seemed durable otherwise, but he's fought almost no competition, So

726
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:41,640
Speaker 2: maybe a Salmon cardio oriented attritional finish or just getting

727
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:44,160
Speaker 2: clipped early. He does not defend strikes well. I think

728
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:46,080
Speaker 2: he has like a fifty percent striking defense, but a

729
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:48,440
Speaker 2: lot of that came into the Peyton Talbot fight where

730
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 2: Talbot just sort of overwhelmed them. But that's the thing

731
00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 2: worth mentioning, and I'm sure you agree with this, Billy.

732
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 2: The pacing that he's going to face for Wellmaker completely

733
00:33:56,600 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 2: different from the pacing that he got against Talbot. Talbot

734
00:33:59,320 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 2: was like, you know, fast forwarding against him, where well

735
00:34:02,400 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 2: Maker is going to be a much more normal paced fight.

736
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 2: So you like Salmon, but do you like him pre

737
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 2: fight or are you waiting live and then any other

738
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:11,800
Speaker 2: prop bets you like in this matchup?

739
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:16,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going pre fight on him and you hit

740
00:34:16,440 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 3: most of it. But also it just feels like a

741
00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:22,400
Speaker 3: very good bi low opportunity on a guy we in

742
00:34:22,440 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 3: the MMA collectively were pretty excited about. And then he

743
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:28,799
Speaker 3: lost to Christian Rodriguez and Peyton Talbot. Christian Rodriguez just

744
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:31,479
Speaker 3: beats every undefeated prospect like that's just what he does,

745
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:34,200
Speaker 3: and then loses to guys he shouldn't. And we didn't

746
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:36,760
Speaker 3: really know that at the time, like he hadn't established

747
00:34:36,800 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 3: that pattern yet, but he's you know, the that's the

748
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:44,400
Speaker 3: level check there, and it happened to saman But Rodriguez

749
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:46,360
Speaker 3: also pushed the pace, not so much with the striking,

750
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:50,239
Speaker 3: but landed three takedowns, attempted a lot more than that.

751
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:52,920
Speaker 3: I think, yeah, attempted six takedowns over three rounds, landed

752
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:55,720
Speaker 3: three of them. Always in your face, always doing stuff,

753
00:34:56,320 --> 00:34:58,880
Speaker 3: and well, maker just had such a huge and obvious

754
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 3: athletic edge over his contender, SHARE's opponent, that it's easy

755
00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:05,800
Speaker 3: to look really good there. I think he's probably still

756
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 3: the better athlete than Cameron Salmon, but it's not it's

757
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 3: like arguable, right, you can make a point either way.

758
00:35:13,120 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 3: And I do think Salmon has a lot of grappling

759
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,480
Speaker 3: upside here when he's not fighting someone like Christian Rodriguez.

760
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 3: You know, we saw it in a couple of his

761
00:35:19,280 --> 00:35:21,279
Speaker 3: lights there. He started to mix in the grappling. It

762
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:24,319
Speaker 3: looked a lot better made the striking more dangerous, where

763
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:26,880
Speaker 3: Wellmaker I think is just going to be a somewhat

764
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 3: low output power striker, and Salmon just has more pass

765
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:33,000
Speaker 3: to victory. So the best I saw was minus one

766
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 3: oh two if it got an injuice here. Than that,

767
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:37,000
Speaker 3: I think I'd looked to some of the props a live,

768
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:39,000
Speaker 3: but when it's close to even money, that's it's hard

769
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:41,759
Speaker 3: to pass up on what was once a really well

770
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:42,680
Speaker 3: regarded prospect.

771
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:44,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to wait for Samy to get the

772
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:47,399
Speaker 2: plus money, but I'm also interested in completely agree. He's

773
00:35:47,440 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 2: six years younger, you know, of the two guys here,

774
00:35:49,520 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 2: he is the prospect well Makers thirty. He's probably not

775
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:54,759
Speaker 2: going to get significantly better. He trains it as small

776
00:35:54,840 --> 00:35:57,920
Speaker 2: jam in Georgia. I believe, like there's no UFC training partners.

777
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 2: There not a gym that's going to level them up significantly,

778
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:02,960
Speaker 2: and a lot of the guys he'd beat regionally are

779
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 2: like one and four zero to three. You know, he

780
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 2: fought camps before he even got together.

781
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:09,400
Speaker 3: That was one of my notes in the Contender series

782
00:36:09,480 --> 00:36:12,839
Speaker 3: articles like super low level of competition. I don't remember

783
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 3: exactly what stat or how I phrased it, but it

784
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 3: was one of the lower ones on that season if

785
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 3: I remember correctly.

786
00:36:18,400 --> 00:36:20,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you bet his opponent. You bet his opponent

787
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:23,480
Speaker 2: about plus two to fifty against him ultimately got knocked out.

788
00:36:23,560 --> 00:36:26,319
Speaker 2: I mean you mentioned that that was a distinct possibility.

789
00:36:26,360 --> 00:36:29,360
Speaker 2: I think the other guy had grappling upside British grappler.

790
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:32,719
Speaker 2: Those guys never come through. But no, I think this

791
00:36:32,760 --> 00:36:35,640
Speaker 2: could be a value spot on Salmon, considering well Maker

792
00:36:35,680 --> 00:36:38,520
Speaker 2: got the knockout. A contender series may not actually be

793
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:42,720
Speaker 2: a legitimate prospect whatsoever. Where Cam Salmon, you know, trains

794
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 2: with drecy Plesley in his gym in South Africa and

795
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:49,800
Speaker 2: is like a well regarded prospect, very technical and continuing

796
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 2: to improve. Just twenty four years old, still not in

797
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 2: his physical prime. Looks like a child, you know, physically

798
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 2: looks like a child. But maybe four years down the line,

799
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:01,680
Speaker 2: Cam Salmon actually matures like a better athlete. We've seen

800
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 2: it from Chase Chase Hooper has gotten bigger and stronger

801
00:37:03,680 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 2: because he's gotten older. He was like, who would have

802
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:07,719
Speaker 2: thought Chase super would be this big and strong at

803
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:09,480
Speaker 2: this point? Right? He looked like a noodle a few

804
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:12,040
Speaker 2: years ago. So maybe Cam Salmon is he is, he

805
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:14,279
Speaker 2: gets into his late twenties, gets a little bit more

806
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 2: physically strong, i'd i'd say, Wellmaker is the better athlete now,

807
00:37:17,320 --> 00:37:20,040
Speaker 2: but four years from now, same same, You can get

808
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:21,719
Speaker 2: to that level. I think. And you know when when

809
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:27,520
Speaker 2: you're talking about athleticism, like we're not just talking power, cardio, stamina,

810
00:37:27,800 --> 00:37:31,480
Speaker 2: you know, I think Samon across fifteen minutes fight, Yeah, yeah,

811
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 2: the quickney exactly, the lateral quickness like across a fifteen

812
00:37:34,840 --> 00:37:37,959
Speaker 2: minute fight. I think Samon maybe looks like the better

813
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:41,400
Speaker 2: athlete a five minute fight. Wellmaker is probably the better athlete, Billy.

814
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:43,000
Speaker 2: Any of their fights, I then we touched on a

815
00:37:43,080 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 2: lot of them. We discussed Gutierres against Castenada before we

816
00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:49,839
Speaker 2: jumped on. Neither of us had any particularly strong take there.

817
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:52,440
Speaker 2: That is a fun fight, though. Any other fights that

818
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 2: we didn't talk about, because there's maybe only one or

819
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:57,279
Speaker 2: two or that you had additional thoughts on before we

820
00:37:57,280 --> 00:37:57,879
Speaker 2: get out of here.

821
00:37:58,719 --> 00:38:02,360
Speaker 3: I'm scanning real quick. There's two fights you mentioned the

822
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:04,560
Speaker 3: pacing ahead of time. If they actually get the eight

823
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 3: fights in or nine fights whatever prelim, I will be

824
00:38:07,719 --> 00:38:11,360
Speaker 3: very surprised in that window. Yeah, I don't think I

825
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:14,319
Speaker 3: have much on Jackie Morim, Verus Polyienna Vienna. That's like

826
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:18,399
Speaker 3: Morem's a minus one thousand favorite. Here did we touch

827
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 3: on everything else? Oh, Castanana Gutierra's uh pretty podcast.

828
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:23,399
Speaker 2: Yeah.

829
00:38:23,440 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 3: The only the interesting there is I've seen people saying

830
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:28,760
Speaker 3: this fight being at forty five favorites gutierres because he's bigger.

831
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:32,360
Speaker 3: I was surprised by that. You said the opposite. I

832
00:38:32,400 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 3: don't know that there's a correct answer to that question. Yeah,

833
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:38,719
Speaker 3: give me your thoughts on that fight, just because I

834
00:38:38,760 --> 00:38:41,919
Speaker 3: am interested. I've seen a wide variety of public opinion there.

835
00:38:42,200 --> 00:38:45,439
Speaker 2: Castinated and takedowns to win. Gutier is more volume, better

836
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:48,279
Speaker 2: technically on the feet, but does run away, doesn't have

837
00:38:48,320 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 2: a ton of power. I think if John Wan's takedowns,

838
00:38:51,320 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 2: he can probably keep getting takedowns, because we've seen Gutierra's

839
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:57,040
Speaker 2: struggle with wrestlers who have success against him in the past,

840
00:38:57,080 --> 00:38:59,520
Speaker 2: and it's not like his takedown defense gets better as

841
00:38:59,520 --> 00:39:03,000
Speaker 2: the fight goes on. He just he tends every time

842
00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:04,360
Speaker 2: he's in the grass, he tends to go down. So

843
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:08,000
Speaker 2: it's it's almost like a spot where if Castaneda gets

844
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:09,879
Speaker 2: a takedown early in round one. I would almost want

845
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:11,399
Speaker 2: to lie bet on him because I feel like they're

846
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 2: going to keep right away. Yeah, yeah, to take down

847
00:39:15,080 --> 00:39:17,799
Speaker 2: TOM'SPT flips to like Castadata minus one fifty maybe just

848
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:20,040
Speaker 2: better right there, because if I think he's able to

849
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:21,799
Speaker 2: show right away that he can get them, I think

850
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 2: he's going to keep getting them where if Kutierrez is

851
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:26,319
Speaker 2: able to resist them early, like I think Gutierras may

852
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 2: resist them for the whole fight. Like it it's almost

853
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 2: like a strength thing, and like I don't know if

854
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:34,600
Speaker 2: Castaneda is strong enough to bowl him over. He's not

855
00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:36,799
Speaker 2: like a super technical wrestler, but I think he might

856
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 2: be able to power over Gutierrez, especially at one forty

857
00:39:39,960 --> 00:39:42,839
Speaker 2: five and especially not having to conserve the gas tank

858
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:45,000
Speaker 2: as much going up from one thirty five to one

859
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:47,319
Speaker 2: forty five. I believe John missed wait the first time

860
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 2: this was booked, and then they rescheduled it and they

861
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 2: moved it up to one forty five. So I mean,

862
00:39:52,719 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 2: if he was the one who missed wait and they

863
00:39:54,000 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 2: moved it up, it should help him more than it

864
00:39:55,400 --> 00:39:57,120
Speaker 2: helps Skutierrez would have mattere.

865
00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:59,799
Speaker 3: They listed it as castanouta illness, but I don't know

866
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:00,560
Speaker 3: if that was.

867
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:04,080
Speaker 2: It was it was a way stopped because he was

868
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:04,600
Speaker 2: getting sick.

869
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, but so you never know what where you're actually

870
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 3: sick or where you're just not going to get there.

871
00:40:09,160 --> 00:40:10,359
Speaker 3: But yeah, that's a good point though.

872
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, so maybe maybe an early live bet on like

873
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:16,080
Speaker 2: first takedown at temp hits it or misses it, Like

874
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 2: maybe maybe jump in on which I get totether that takedown.

875
00:40:20,239 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 2: That's like literally how I think about that fight. I'm like,

876
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:24,319
Speaker 2: I just want to see one grappling exchange before I

877
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:26,839
Speaker 2: know who win. Because Gutierras, I do expect to chip

878
00:40:26,880 --> 00:40:30,120
Speaker 2: away with more volume across fifteen minutes. That'll do it

879
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:31,920
Speaker 2: for a UFC betting preview. You can find more you

880
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:34,759
Speaker 2: have seen betting content for both Billy and myself on

881
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:38,279
Speaker 2: Action Network Tom on actionework dot com. Remember if you'd

882
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:39,759
Speaker 2: like to instantly tail some of the bets that we

883
00:40:39,800 --> 00:40:41,600
Speaker 2: discussed on today's show, we'll go out with quicks of

884
00:40:41,680 --> 00:40:44,600
Speaker 2: links in both the podcasts and video descriptions. Or visit

885
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:48,360
Speaker 2: Actionnework dot com slash bet now. Don't forget to download

886
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:50,400
Speaker 2: the free award winning Action Network Gap and sign up

887
00:40:50,400 --> 00:40:53,759
Speaker 2: for Action pro formediate access to expert picks and analysis.

888
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:55,439
Speaker 2: Best of luck with all your bets this weekend. Enjoy

889
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:58,080
Speaker 2: the fights, enjoy the violence. Thanks for listening, See you

890
00:40:58,120 --> 00:40:58,480
Speaker 2: next time.

891
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

892
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

893
00:41:08,280 --> 00:41:10,920
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

894
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:11,760
Speaker 2: hundred Gambler