WEBVTT - Cruel Summer 0:00:00.160 --> 0:00:04.480 Brought to you by Toyota. Let's go places. Hello, I 0:00:04.480 --> 0:00:07.560 am Lauren Vogue. Bam, this is Forward Thinking Jonathan stricklind 0:00:07.600 --> 0:00:09.239 is going to cut him in just a moment, but 0:00:09.360 --> 0:00:12.600 we had a quick addendum to the following episode. It's 0:00:12.640 --> 0:00:15.720 going to be about climate change and future oriented. Though 0:00:15.760 --> 0:00:18.599 we maybe we could not have predicted that when we 0:00:18.640 --> 0:00:21.880 recorded this on September sevent or so, that the Intergovernmental 0:00:21.960 --> 0:00:24.880 Panel on Climate Change was going to release a new 0:00:24.880 --> 0:00:28.600 report just about a week later. Now this new report 0:00:28.800 --> 0:00:30.800 is very much in line with the trends that we're 0:00:30.840 --> 0:00:33.480 going to talk about in this episode. But in case 0:00:33.520 --> 0:00:36.080 you would like the updated facts and figures, I'm going 0:00:36.120 --> 0:00:38.000 to write a blog post about that. It is going 0:00:38.040 --> 0:00:40.960 to go up slightly after this episode airs, so go 0:00:41.040 --> 0:00:43.720 over to fw thinking dot com to check that out 0:00:44.080 --> 0:00:58.600 and stay tuned. Thank you. Welcome to Forward Thinking Taylor 0:00:58.680 --> 0:01:01.640 to one and welcome to Forward Thinking, the podcast that 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:03.760 looks at the future and says it's a cool, cruel 0:01:03.760 --> 0:01:06.280 summer leading me here on my own. I'm Jonathan Strickland, 0:01:06.640 --> 0:01:10.240 I'm Lauren Vogue Obama, and I'm Joe McCormick. And that 0:01:10.520 --> 0:01:13.240 sound of disapproval comes from Lauren, who is shaking her 0:01:13.280 --> 0:01:16.200 head at me. Today we're going to talk about climate change. 0:01:16.240 --> 0:01:18.720 What is climate change? What's global warming? Are they the 0:01:18.800 --> 0:01:22.880 same thing? What's what's the deal? Yeah? Climate change? So 0:01:23.200 --> 0:01:27.360 I saw a movie about it, um, like convenient truth. 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:29.560 You know. It was called The Day After Tomorrow. Oh 0:01:29.800 --> 0:01:32.520 that movie, right, it came out a few years back. 0:01:32.600 --> 0:01:34.000 I don't know if you saw it, but it had 0:01:34.040 --> 0:01:37.480 it had some very attractive actors in it, uh, and 0:01:37.600 --> 0:01:41.240 they fought against the evil villain of climate change. Basically, 0:01:41.920 --> 0:01:44.959 what I learned from it was that climate change creates 0:01:45.360 --> 0:01:50.240 uh intelligent anthropogenic ice that chases you down hallways or 0:01:50.400 --> 0:01:55.080 or Jill down hallways. Right. It's really had it in 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:59.800 for him. Um that that that everything happens in like 0:02:00.280 --> 0:02:02.000 I don't remember. It was like it looked like it 0:02:02.080 --> 0:02:05.040 was like an hour. My favorite part of that movie 0:02:05.200 --> 0:02:09.520 is watching characters running from the cold front as it's 0:02:09.560 --> 0:02:13.560 passing over and turning things instantly into ice, and just 0:02:13.680 --> 0:02:18.040 barely slipping inside a library and shutting the door to 0:02:18.120 --> 0:02:21.480 keep the cold front out people. It's like when people 0:02:21.520 --> 0:02:24.040 run away from an explosion, right and they're able to 0:02:24.040 --> 0:02:26.280 outrun it. Yeah, it made me think that there was 0:02:26.320 --> 0:02:28.000 going to be a knock at the door, and then 0:02:28.040 --> 0:02:31.280 you just hear cold front like, no, don't get it. Yeah, 0:02:32.080 --> 0:02:35.240 but yeah, everything I learned from this movie, is this 0:02:35.280 --> 0:02:39.200 all correct? Let's just say that the film takes some 0:02:39.360 --> 0:02:45.440 liberties with science. Oh okay, so then climate change, global warming, 0:02:45.480 --> 0:02:47.480 these things aren't really happening. See, as it turns out, 0:02:47.520 --> 0:02:50.520 there's actually a middle ground between the movie The Day 0:02:50.520 --> 0:02:54.000 After Tomorrow and the complete denial that climate change and 0:02:54.000 --> 0:02:57.440 global warming are a thing. Well, I like to uh 0:02:57.680 --> 0:03:01.919 listen to what scientists have to say. Let's so, well, 0:03:01.960 --> 0:03:04.640 first let's let's define some terms, right, okay, because I mean, 0:03:04.639 --> 0:03:07.320 obviously we're gonna be talking a lot about global warming 0:03:07.360 --> 0:03:10.280 and climate change. And one thing that we notice is 0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:15.040 that maybe in popular science reporting and in general amongst 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:18.639 the public, these two terms tend to be confused or 0:03:18.720 --> 0:03:22.919 sometimes used interchangeably, and that's not exactly correct. Yeah. It 0:03:22.919 --> 0:03:26.160 turns out that if you talk to scientists, how they 0:03:26.240 --> 0:03:30.880 use these terms is that global warming refers more often 0:03:30.960 --> 0:03:36.280 specifically to the increase in the mean surface temperature of 0:03:36.320 --> 0:03:41.400 the Earth. It's caused specifically by human human emissions. Right, 0:03:41.560 --> 0:03:44.480 that this recent trend we're talking about, right, right, whereas 0:03:44.520 --> 0:03:48.080 climate change refers to both global warming and everything else 0:03:48.120 --> 0:03:51.120 that causes the climate to change over a given period 0:03:51.120 --> 0:03:53.440 of time a k a. Usually a very long period 0:03:53.480 --> 0:03:55.920 of time, right, Yeah, So you can think of global 0:03:55.920 --> 0:03:59.320 warming is sort of like a specific phenomenon and climate 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:03.040 change is like that phenomenon plus all of its effects. Right. 0:04:03.080 --> 0:04:06.080 And then on top of that, you also have the 0:04:06.120 --> 0:04:09.320 scientific literature that tends to use these these two different 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:12.440 terms in very specific contexts. So if you were to 0:04:12.480 --> 0:04:16.120 actually read a paper, one paper might be about global warming, 0:04:16.200 --> 0:04:18.760 another one might be about climate change, and those two 0:04:18.920 --> 0:04:22.400 terms are not meant to be interchanged at all, Whereas, 0:04:22.440 --> 0:04:24.360 like I said, with some of the in the media, 0:04:24.600 --> 0:04:27.080 sometimes they just get tossed around without people really being 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:30.200 very aware of what right it's. It may be that 0:04:30.360 --> 0:04:33.960 someone is unaware of the difference or that they're just misspeaking, 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:35.960 but at any rate, there does seem to be this 0:04:35.960 --> 0:04:39.880 this idea that the two terms are used, or that 0:04:40.000 --> 0:04:42.920 one was used before and now the other one is preferred. 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:45.920 Like there there's a there's a perception and misperception. As 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:49.359 it turns out that global warming was the term that 0:04:49.400 --> 0:04:53.040 everyone was using in the eighties, and then once everyone 0:04:53.080 --> 0:04:55.680 figured out, oh wait, no, no, no, it's not global warming, 0:04:55.680 --> 0:04:59.800 it's climate change. It's switched. That's not actually true. Those 0:04:59.800 --> 0:05:03.039 two terms are still used pretty much just as frequently 0:05:03.120 --> 0:05:06.600 as they were before, but they're in that very specific context. 0:05:06.839 --> 0:05:09.760 So it all depends upon the context of whatever research 0:05:09.760 --> 0:05:12.919 you're reading as to which term will be used. But 0:05:13.040 --> 0:05:15.800 the difference is actually pretty intuitive. They're what they sound like. 0:05:15.839 --> 0:05:19.320 Global warming refers to the warming. Climate change refers to 0:05:19.400 --> 0:05:22.919 the overall climate. But wait a minute, Wait a minute, Joe, Joe, 0:05:23.200 --> 0:05:27.600 I'm I'm confused. I mean, yesterday was not as hot 0:05:27.680 --> 0:05:30.360 as two days ago, which in turn was hotter than 0:05:30.400 --> 0:05:32.680 the day before that, and a few days before that 0:05:32.800 --> 0:05:36.400 was less hot. I don't see how this climate thing 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:40.320 is affecting me. Am I making a mistake. You might 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:43.520 be making a mistake. Um, For one thing, here, your 0:05:43.560 --> 0:05:47.880 sample size is one. It's you. Yeah, I'm a very 0:05:47.920 --> 0:05:54.560 reliable narrator. It's also a very small sample of days. Okay, sure, sure. 0:05:54.920 --> 0:05:59.120 So to understand global trends in climate, we need to 0:05:59.160 --> 0:06:04.120 step back and look at really massive systems and averages 0:06:04.160 --> 0:06:08.600 across a lot of different time scales and geographical location, right, 0:06:08.600 --> 0:06:11.920 because climate is global, whereas weather, which is what you're 0:06:11.960 --> 0:06:15.640 talking about, is is local. Yes, yes, weather is local. 0:06:15.760 --> 0:06:18.720 And weather is something that we usually refer to in 0:06:18.880 --> 0:06:21.839 terms of, well we can it can be as short 0:06:21.880 --> 0:06:24.000 as a few minutes and as long as a few months, 0:06:24.000 --> 0:06:26.000 but that tends to be what we're referring to when 0:06:26.040 --> 0:06:30.919 we talk about weather. Climate is a much longer term, uh, 0:06:31.080 --> 0:06:34.280 subject matter. And like you said, Joe, we're talking about 0:06:34.480 --> 0:06:39.000 global scale with climate, not just Jonathan in the metropolitan 0:06:39.000 --> 0:06:41.719 Atlanta area over the course of the last two weeks. 0:06:42.440 --> 0:06:44.600 So that that but that's one of those other things 0:06:44.600 --> 0:06:47.159 that we see get confused often as the idea between 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:50.240 climate and weather, and in fact, that can cause confusion 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:53.600 when you're discussing things like climate change and global global warming, 0:06:53.680 --> 0:06:56.560 because if someone says, yeah, but you know, this summer 0:06:56.600 --> 0:06:59.599 just didn't seem as hot as last summer, it's it's 0:06:59.640 --> 0:07:02.960 a total different scale than what we're talking about. Basically, 0:07:03.000 --> 0:07:04.440 if you can make small talk about it in an 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:07.320 elevator with someone that you don't know politely, then its weather, 0:07:07.480 --> 0:07:10.680 not climate. That's a good rubric. Did you did you 0:07:10.760 --> 0:07:15.040 notice that the glacial ice is two less over the 0:07:15.120 --> 0:07:17.360 last twenty years than it was over the last hundred 0:07:17.400 --> 0:07:20.800 and twenty years. I see, I have different elevator experiences 0:07:20.800 --> 0:07:27.760 that you clearly do. Okay, Jonathan's elevator experiences are just primo. 0:07:27.800 --> 0:07:31.400 You gotta ask him about them sometimes, Okay. Uh, So 0:07:32.040 --> 0:07:37.520 let's talk about temperature, okay, because clearly the central feature 0:07:37.760 --> 0:07:41.600 of climate change is this idea that the temperature is increasing? 0:07:42.000 --> 0:07:44.920 Number one? Is that true? And number two? How do 0:07:44.960 --> 0:07:47.920 we know? Uh? It is true? And we know because 0:07:47.920 --> 0:07:51.760 we take measurements and we examine them. The acceleration of 0:07:51.880 --> 0:07:55.600 heating that we've seen over the last century is far 0:07:55.760 --> 0:07:59.480 greater than what we can account for using the natural 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:02.200 cycles of the Earth. So, in other words, we're seeing 0:08:02.320 --> 0:08:06.480 a more rapid acceleration in heating than we would normally 0:08:06.560 --> 0:08:09.680 see if, in fact, human intervention had not been a factor. 0:08:09.840 --> 0:08:12.440 So what kind of differences are we talking about in 0:08:12.520 --> 0:08:17.239 recent years? Is it like a hundred degrees hotter? Well? So, okay, 0:08:17.280 --> 0:08:19.520 So over the past five thousand years or so, global 0:08:19.520 --> 0:08:22.960 temperatures rose a total of four to seven degrees celsius, 0:08:23.040 --> 0:08:26.400 depending on you know, the absolute liability of our data, 0:08:26.840 --> 0:08:29.840 And um, that's that's what like seven point two to 0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:32.720 twelve point six degrees fahrenheit. I didn't just make that 0:08:32.800 --> 0:08:34.160 up off the top of my head. I wrote it 0:08:34.200 --> 0:08:37.240 down just to have a saying. Um, but uh, in 0:08:37.280 --> 0:08:41.520 the past century alone, um temperatures rose point seven degrees celsius. 0:08:41.559 --> 0:08:44.120 That's one point to six degrees fahrenheit, which is about 0:08:44.240 --> 0:08:48.240 ten times faster than the average rate of ice age 0:08:48.240 --> 0:08:52.960 recovery warming. And on top of that, projection suggests that 0:08:53.160 --> 0:08:55.640 by the end of the twenty first century, the temperature 0:08:55.640 --> 0:08:58.360 will continue to arise between two degrees celsius and six 0:08:58.400 --> 0:09:02.040 degrees celsius. That's kind of a range that's given. Uh. 0:09:02.080 --> 0:09:04.679 You know, six obviously would be the worst case scenario. 0:09:04.760 --> 0:09:07.560 But even if we were to quote unquote fix all 0:09:07.640 --> 0:09:09.600 the problems, and we'll talk about fixing the problems in 0:09:09.600 --> 0:09:12.040 the future podcast, but if we were to fix them, 0:09:12.080 --> 0:09:16.600 we would still experience, uh, an increase in temperature because 0:09:16.640 --> 0:09:21.080 there's a lag between addressing the problem and having the 0:09:21.080 --> 0:09:24.400 problem actually resolve in any way, right, UM, And all 0:09:24.400 --> 0:09:26.600 of us data is based on a whole lot of 0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:29.719 figures that we are collecting about um. You know, the 0:09:29.720 --> 0:09:32.000 the amount of radiation we're getting from the sun and 0:09:33.200 --> 0:09:38.679 everything unhouse gases that are present in the atmosphere, uh, 0:09:38.720 --> 0:09:42.360 everything from the cloud cover that can be a factor. 0:09:42.400 --> 0:09:45.559 In fact, there's some people who suggest that uh, through 0:09:46.440 --> 0:09:50.600 increased evaporation due to heat heating of the oceans, that 0:09:50.600 --> 0:09:53.520 that will increase the cloud cover and that's that would 0:09:53.559 --> 0:09:58.880 actually help help cool the earth. Uh. I'm not I'm 0:09:58.920 --> 0:10:03.199 not a sold on that particular, on that particular interpretation. 0:10:03.320 --> 0:10:05.079 Got I've got a bunch of information on that one. 0:10:05.480 --> 0:10:08.360 The general answers, We're not sure yet, but we'll talk 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:10.920 about that in a future podcast. But but but now, 0:10:10.920 --> 0:10:13.800 the kind of data that we collect is about the aerosols, 0:10:13.840 --> 0:10:18.520 the particles in our atmosphere, atmosphere gases, the ocean surface 0:10:18.520 --> 0:10:23.120 temperature changes, global sea level, extent of ocean, ice, plant growth, rainfall, 0:10:23.160 --> 0:10:27.640 cloud structure, uh, ground temperature, snow depth records. I mean, 0:10:27.840 --> 0:10:31.760 like all of this data is going into the way 0:10:31.800 --> 0:10:36.960 that scientists define these estimates of global warming and UM. 0:10:37.040 --> 0:10:40.560 When they take all of this data from natural events 0:10:40.720 --> 0:10:44.840 and from human created events, they try to kind of 0:10:44.880 --> 0:10:49.840 reverse engineer the temperature ranges that we've seen and UM, 0:10:49.920 --> 0:10:53.679 the models that they create bork around nineteen fifty. If 0:10:53.720 --> 0:10:56.719 you don't take into account human intervention. Right, So in 0:10:56.960 --> 0:10:59.360 other words, when you if you were to say this 0:10:59.440 --> 0:11:01.720 is only based this is just part of the Earth's 0:11:01.800 --> 0:11:04.760 natural cycle, like this is exactly the same sort of 0:11:04.760 --> 0:11:07.520 thing that's happened in the past. You can't account for 0:11:07.600 --> 0:11:10.120 the amount of change we're seeing now in the in 0:11:10.160 --> 0:11:13.000 the time span. That's the really important part is that 0:11:13.360 --> 0:11:16.080 these are changes that we would see happen to the 0:11:16.080 --> 0:11:19.080 Earth in a natural warming trend, but we would see 0:11:19.080 --> 0:11:22.200 them stretched out over a much longer time span than 0:11:22.440 --> 0:11:26.880 half a century. Okay, so the Earth is definitely warming recently, 0:11:26.960 --> 0:11:31.640 and basically nobody denies this, right, And dude, that's well, well, basically, 0:11:31.760 --> 0:11:34.840 I think most people who look at the science say no, 0:11:35.040 --> 0:11:39.000 there's there's plenty of evidence here, pretty straightforward data. It's 0:11:39.080 --> 0:11:42.120 just getting hotter. It's not like a question about that, 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:44.800 although there are people who will say that, no, it's 0:11:44.880 --> 0:11:48.239 not getting warmer because look, the Arctic ice has recovered 0:11:48.320 --> 0:11:55.360 from ice recovered compared to Therefore the worth the Earth 0:11:55.480 --> 0:11:58.080 is not warming, or it's warming at a slower pace, 0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:02.120 or it's declining. Again, a single year of data isn't 0:12:02.400 --> 0:12:05.600 enough to base a trend upon, and the trends that 0:12:05.640 --> 0:12:08.720 we are talking about have lasted since um at least 0:12:08.840 --> 0:12:12.760 nine Yeah. So, so there are people who do deny 0:12:12.880 --> 0:12:15.800 that the Earth is warming, but they are not as 0:12:16.559 --> 0:12:21.800 numerous as those who deny the larger question of climate 0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:25.679 change in general. Okay, Um, so the Earth is warming, 0:12:25.840 --> 0:12:29.480 what's causing it? Well, that's where not some more the 0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:33.760 argument comes in? Right? Yeah, so have y'all heard of 0:12:33.800 --> 0:12:39.400 the greenhouse effect? Wait? What have you ever been inside 0:12:39.400 --> 0:12:42.200 a greenhouse? I have? Or have you ever been inside 0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:44.680 just a parked car out in the sunlight. My wife 0:12:44.760 --> 0:12:46.959 leaves me there all the time. When into the story, 0:12:48.080 --> 0:12:50.480 I beg her to crack a window, she just takes 0:12:50.520 --> 0:12:53.880 the key out and it's power windows. So I'm just stuck. Seriously, 0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:56.120 people don't leave your animals. No, no, no, it's bad, 0:12:56.320 --> 0:12:59.320 very bad. Um. And it's bad because in a way 0:12:59.480 --> 0:13:03.600 of the green house effect. Okay, so the greenhouse effect 0:13:03.760 --> 0:13:07.680 happens when, um, there is sort of a differential in 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:11.560 the two way transportation of energy through a medium. So 0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:14.640 it happens in a greenhouse when the sunlight comes through 0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:18.520 the glass comes in and allows that that UV radiation, 0:13:18.640 --> 0:13:21.360 all the sun's energy to come through one way, but 0:13:21.400 --> 0:13:26.480 then it traps heat inside. Um. The Earth actually works 0:13:26.480 --> 0:13:28.960 in a very similar way in the atmosphere, right. Yeah, 0:13:29.000 --> 0:13:32.160 the atmosphere is kind of like the glass in a greenhouse. 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:35.120 And this is totally natural and in fact, if it 0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:37.920 didn't happen, there wouldn't really be life as we know it. No, 0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:42.040 if it didn't happen, the Earth would basically be the moon. Um. Right. 0:13:42.120 --> 0:13:45.320 The the the heat trapped by the atmosphere keeps the 0:13:45.360 --> 0:13:48.559 Earth at a habitable temperature. Right, that's exactly right. And 0:13:48.800 --> 0:13:51.440 um So the greenhouse effect is not a bad thing, 0:13:52.000 --> 0:13:55.560 and it's caused by multiple types of gases in the atmosphere. 0:13:55.720 --> 0:13:58.959 Um So, the biggest one actually is water vapor, right, 0:13:59.040 --> 0:14:01.520 that one. That one ends up trapping heat at an 0:14:01.559 --> 0:14:04.800 efficiency far greater than that of other greenhouse gasses. Yeah, 0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:10.880 so water vapor, UM, cloud particles, carbon dioxide uh CFCs 0:14:10.920 --> 0:14:15.520 so chlorofluoro carbons um in O two I believe, and 0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:20.040 methane gases like this. Um. They hover up in the 0:14:20.040 --> 0:14:23.040 atmosphere and what happens is the sunlight passes through them 0:14:23.040 --> 0:14:25.760 on the way to the Earth, bringing energy with it. 0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:29.480 That sunlight hits the Earth's crust and gets absorbed, and 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:32.600 when it radiates back upward it is heat. That heat 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:36.200 gets trapped under those gases and does not pass backward 0:14:36.320 --> 0:14:38.480 out of the Earth, so we get sort of a 0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:42.400 net gain of heat on the planet. Um. A certain 0:14:42.400 --> 0:14:44.760 amount of this of this, like we've said, is good 0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:49.680 because it allows us to not freeze to death. But um, 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:54.800 if you have too much greenhouse effect from an overconcentration 0:14:54.880 --> 0:14:58.320 of greenhouse gasses, you can trap more heat than you're 0:14:58.400 --> 0:15:02.440 used to, which is is what most scientists agree is 0:15:02.480 --> 0:15:05.680 going on right now to cause this heating trend we've 0:15:05.720 --> 0:15:09.200 observed recently, which in turn is driving climate change. So 0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:13.760 what can we do about this? Well, we can't really 0:15:13.800 --> 0:15:16.880 mess with water vapor much because there's a water cycle 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:19.440 on Earth that we need. It turns out water is 0:15:19.480 --> 0:15:22.280 pretty important. Rain is kind of critical, so we don't 0:15:22.280 --> 0:15:24.400 want to mess with the water. Um. But there are 0:15:24.400 --> 0:15:28.360 these other gases that are non condensing gases as opposed 0:15:28.400 --> 0:15:31.480 to water. Because water vapor condenses, it forms clouds. These 0:15:31.480 --> 0:15:36.920 non condensing gases, and mainly most scientists degree carbon dioxide 0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:40.280 are responsible for a huge part of the trend in 0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:44.640 global warming. And the reason this is happening is because 0:15:44.840 --> 0:15:48.600 we've increased the amount of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere 0:15:48.600 --> 0:15:51.520 since the Industrial Revolution. So what you can do is 0:15:51.560 --> 0:15:54.400 you can you can drill a cylinder of ancient ice 0:15:54.480 --> 0:15:56.920 out of a glacier and pull that up and look 0:15:56.960 --> 0:15:59.480 at it. And it turns out when ice freezes, it 0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:02.440 traps little air bubbles in it, and those air bubbles 0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:04.920 are like little time capsules of what the atmosphere was 0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:08.320 like in throughout history. Yeah, and so we can look 0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:10.760 at these, and this is one type of evidence we 0:16:10.800 --> 0:16:15.040 have for the historical presence of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. 0:16:15.640 --> 0:16:18.160 What these ice cores tend to show is that pre 0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:21.720 industrial air had about two hundred and eighty parts per 0:16:21.760 --> 0:16:26.880 million of C O two um. This year we hit 0:16:27.080 --> 0:16:34.840 four hundred parts per million, so we uh, not nearly doubled, 0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:37.880 but we but half a yeah, yeah that's true, half 0:16:37.880 --> 0:16:42.280 again as much. And that's a big deal earlier. And 0:16:42.360 --> 0:16:46.960 so there are questions about exactly how much carbon needs 0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:50.800 to be in the atmosphere to cause a significant increase 0:16:50.840 --> 0:16:54.440 in the greenhouse effect. Um, what I've heard some people 0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:56.480 say is like, well, we really need to get down 0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:58.840 to three d and fifty parts per million for a 0:16:58.880 --> 0:17:03.280 stable climate. UM four hundred was sort of like some 0:17:03.320 --> 0:17:05.720 people have said, that's like a sort of turning point 0:17:05.920 --> 0:17:09.840 or a point of stability that that really cannot be exceeded. 0:17:10.240 --> 0:17:12.399 And now it's like, well, we already hit that, and 0:17:12.720 --> 0:17:16.160 so there's sort of this smoothing scale of what can 0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:21.800 feasibly be tolerated UM. The point is that is that 0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:25.199 there's a correlation between the amount of carbon in the 0:17:25.240 --> 0:17:30.280 atmosphere and the and the temperature the or the sorry 0:17:30.320 --> 0:17:32.359 the climate. So you can look at look at this. 0:17:32.400 --> 0:17:34.960 I think you mentioned earlier that these ice cores, for example, 0:17:35.000 --> 0:17:38.439 you can look at dates um in the strata of 0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:41.680 the ice and it turns out that times when there 0:17:41.760 --> 0:17:44.960 was less carbon in the atmosphere or less carbon dioxide, 0:17:45.520 --> 0:17:50.040 there were ice ages or colder periods, and time when 0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:54.360 the carbon dioxide and the atmosphere spiked there were warmer periods, 0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:57.320 just like we're seeing now. And you can argue that 0:17:57.320 --> 0:18:00.480 part of this is due to U volcanic activity. Even today, 0:18:00.520 --> 0:18:02.439 there have been a couple of large volcanoes that have 0:18:02.560 --> 0:18:06.280 erupted UM over the past few decades that have caused 0:18:06.440 --> 0:18:09.080 a significant amount of carbon dioxide to be released into 0:18:09.080 --> 0:18:11.159 the air. They also tend to release a lot of 0:18:11.480 --> 0:18:16.000 sulfur dioxide, which tends to lower it has a cooling 0:18:16.040 --> 0:18:19.679 effect from cloud creation. Yeah. From what I've read, it 0:18:19.760 --> 0:18:22.160 seems to be that they think that the volcanoes are 0:18:22.200 --> 0:18:26.199 not a significant contributor, certainly not compared to cars. As 0:18:26.240 --> 0:18:28.400 it turns out there are more cars and there are 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:33.879 volcanoes or factory power facilities. Yeah. Um, And so there 0:18:33.880 --> 0:18:36.600 are a few questions. Okay, so we're we're seeing this 0:18:36.720 --> 0:18:40.960 correlation between temperature and the concentration of CO two in 0:18:41.000 --> 0:18:44.000 the atmosphere. Um, but are there other things that might 0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:46.600 be causing it instead. Well, we don't know for sure, 0:18:46.640 --> 0:18:50.920 but most scientists think not. Um. Well, you know, I mean, 0:18:51.119 --> 0:18:53.600 you know, alterations in them in the Earth's orbit and 0:18:53.680 --> 0:18:56.960 the Sun's orbit can change change the climate over a 0:18:56.960 --> 0:18:59.760 given period of time, but not the drastic way that 0:18:59.800 --> 0:19:02.320 we seen it in the past couple decades. Yeah. Like 0:19:02.400 --> 0:19:07.080 some objections you might see sometimes people who say like, oh, 0:19:07.119 --> 0:19:09.960 the Sun is just hotter, like it's warming the Earth 0:19:10.040 --> 0:19:13.760 more than before. But we can actually test that hypothesis 0:19:13.800 --> 0:19:16.880 and that doesn't really stand up apparently, right, the Sun's 0:19:16.960 --> 0:19:19.880 energy varies on about an eleven year cycle. Um, it 0:19:20.000 --> 0:19:22.679 might vary also on a on a greater cycle, but 0:19:22.760 --> 0:19:25.960 we haven't had enough data yet to tell whether that's true. 0:19:26.080 --> 0:19:30.960 And um, as of early the solar brightness since two 0:19:30.960 --> 0:19:34.239 thousand five has actually been slightly lower yeah than in 0:19:34.280 --> 0:19:37.520 the past, So yet we have a warming trend during 0:19:37.560 --> 0:19:40.640 that time. The bottom line is, uh, we're pretty sure 0:19:40.720 --> 0:19:43.840 that there is a substantial link between the amount of 0:19:43.880 --> 0:19:47.480 C O two especially, but other greenhouse gases like methane, 0:19:47.640 --> 0:19:52.520 chlor flora carbons and stuff like that, and the greenhouse 0:19:52.560 --> 0:19:55.880 effect that is causing the global warming trend we see, right, 0:19:55.960 --> 0:19:58.120 So let's um, I guess then we need to talk 0:19:58.119 --> 0:20:00.119 about some of the effects here, and we've touched on 0:20:00.240 --> 0:20:03.240 these obviously, because if you're talking about global warming, a 0:20:03.280 --> 0:20:06.720 lot of effects become fairly self evident, but some of 0:20:06.720 --> 0:20:09.400 them you might not realize at first because they're kind 0:20:09.400 --> 0:20:12.400 of a it's kind of like a domino effect. Right, So, 0:20:12.520 --> 0:20:14.800 what's global warming going to do in the future? All right? Well, 0:20:14.840 --> 0:20:21.840 first of all, I sounded so, yeah, here's a trend 0:20:21.960 --> 0:20:24.399 that we're observing. What's it really going to do in 0:20:24.440 --> 0:20:28.440 the future? Okay, Well, um, there's there are a lot 0:20:28.480 --> 0:20:31.440 of a lot of disagreements, well, maybe not disagreements. There's 0:20:31.480 --> 0:20:35.880 a lot of debate and conversation around this because frankly, 0:20:35.920 --> 0:20:38.960 climate is an incredibly complex thing. There are a lot 0:20:39.000 --> 0:20:42.160 of different factors that all influence one another in different ways, 0:20:42.520 --> 0:20:47.240 and changing the temperature of the Earth is definitely changing climates. 0:20:47.520 --> 0:20:50.480 It's just a question of how drastically are certain climates 0:20:50.480 --> 0:20:52.520 going to change. And you know, once you get to 0:20:52.560 --> 0:20:54.560 a point where you're trying to predict what's happening in 0:20:54.560 --> 0:20:58.320 a particular region, it really gets tricky, right, right, So, 0:20:58.359 --> 0:21:01.240 in other words, saying this is exactly how it's going 0:21:01.280 --> 0:21:05.560 to affect the northeastern United States would be probably an 0:21:05.600 --> 0:21:09.800 irresponsible thing to say as a scientist, unless you were 0:21:09.840 --> 0:21:13.880 able to couch that in probabilities, making probabilistic models, where 0:21:13.920 --> 0:21:16.640 you say there's a certain percentage of likelihood that this 0:21:16.760 --> 0:21:19.240 is going to happen. But keep in mind that's a 0:21:19.280 --> 0:21:22.119 percentage of likelihood, right, and there are just too many, 0:21:22.160 --> 0:21:25.119 too many factors, too many points of data to really 0:21:25.240 --> 0:21:27.919 be certain about that kind of thing. Yeah, and anytime 0:21:28.000 --> 0:21:31.320 we're dealing in um future projections, instead of just say 0:21:31.400 --> 0:21:34.520 I don't know, basic empirical observations. We're talking in terms 0:21:34.520 --> 0:21:38.320 of likelihood certainty. Seeing even with these things that were 0:21:38.480 --> 0:21:42.800 very sure about if it's future speculation, it's like, we're 0:21:44.119 --> 0:21:48.520 not actually positive. And in fact, there there are percentages 0:21:48.560 --> 0:21:52.800 that are like that, there's essentially certainty that we're going 0:21:52.840 --> 0:21:57.359 to see uh increased heat waves in the future. So 0:21:57.680 --> 0:22:02.800 that's scientists have put that uh a near certainty. Other 0:22:02.840 --> 0:22:06.760 ones are you know, at different ranges. But for instance, ice, 0:22:07.320 --> 0:22:11.080 we can we're gonna see less of it. Yeah, there's 0:22:11.080 --> 0:22:13.200 gonna be a lot of melting. So we're gonna see 0:22:13.200 --> 0:22:15.080 a loss of sea ice. We're gonna see reduction in 0:22:15.080 --> 0:22:19.400 glacier sizes. We're gonna see ice breaking up and melting 0:22:19.480 --> 0:22:22.440 earlier in the year on lakes and rivers and places 0:22:22.440 --> 0:22:25.200 where it does freeze over right. That's because every year 0:22:25.400 --> 0:22:28.359 um ice will will reform in the winter and then 0:22:28.400 --> 0:22:30.600 melting down in the summer. And when they talk about 0:22:30.640 --> 0:22:33.359 the glaciers melting, it's not that they're all doing it 0:22:33.400 --> 0:22:36.359 all at once. Forever's um it's it's just that less 0:22:36.440 --> 0:22:39.720 ice is being recaptured in the winter than it was 0:22:39.760 --> 0:22:42.880 the previous So the overall trend is that the glaciers 0:22:42.880 --> 0:22:46.200 are getting smaller in size and over time. And then 0:22:46.359 --> 0:22:50.600 you also we see decrease decreases in snow packs, which 0:22:50.640 --> 0:22:53.439 means you're going to see some actual ecosystems change as 0:22:53.440 --> 0:22:55.560 a result. And by the way, all of this ice 0:22:55.680 --> 0:23:00.000 melting and decreases in snow winds up creating warmer temper 0:23:00.080 --> 0:23:03.680 cheers overall, because ice and snow are reflective, whereas um 0:23:03.880 --> 0:23:06.919 warm ground or warm water or even I mean, you know, 0:23:07.000 --> 0:23:11.040 room temperature ground or water are darker and therefore absorb 0:23:11.119 --> 0:23:14.119 more of that heat coming down from the sun. Ye uh. 0:23:14.320 --> 0:23:17.560 NASA says that the green Land and Antarctic ice sheets 0:23:17.560 --> 0:23:21.159 have decreased in mass UH from two thousand two to 0:23:21.200 --> 0:23:24.200