WEBVTT - Draft Episode for May 26, 2021 0:00:05.120 --> 0:00:09.200 Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene. Along 0:00:09.240 --> 0:00:13.200 with Jonathan Ferroll and Lisa Brownwitz. Daily we bring you 0:00:13.320 --> 0:00:18.600 insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations. 0:00:18.960 --> 0:00:23.840 Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg dot com, 0:00:23.920 --> 0:00:29.639 and of course, on the Bloomberg Terminal. So this Morning 0:00:29.640 --> 0:00:32.520 with Francie Lacuai featured one of the great market calls 0:00:32.560 --> 0:00:35.360 of all time, David mal Past years ago at bear 0:00:35.440 --> 0:00:39.200 Stearns screaming about the end of the end of deflation 0:00:39.680 --> 0:00:42.320 in Japan. It was one of the truly great calls 0:00:42.560 --> 0:00:44.640 of the early part of the last decade. He is 0:00:44.680 --> 0:00:47.520 now President of the World Bank. David mel Past joins 0:00:47.600 --> 0:00:51.000 us this morning. David, you have always been one to say, 0:00:51.080 --> 0:00:56.920 let markets act. The market for menu factured vaccines is 0:00:57.040 --> 0:01:00.320 out there. Is it a legitimate market or is it 0:01:00.440 --> 0:01:03.760 held up now by politics? Is so many nations are 0:01:03.920 --> 0:01:09.000 desperate for vaccination. Hi, Tom, they are desperate, and I 0:01:09.040 --> 0:01:12.160 think it's really important that the countries that have excess 0:01:12.640 --> 0:01:15.280 free up those excess so they can go to countries 0:01:15.560 --> 0:01:20.080 which have vaccination programs. It's important to do that. Matching 0:01:20.200 --> 0:01:23.520 between the halves and the ones that are ready to 0:01:23.600 --> 0:01:26.560 actually put shots in arms. We have World Bank has 0:01:26.840 --> 0:01:31.160 will have fifty countries by mid year that are ready 0:01:31.480 --> 0:01:34.840 with with the personnel standing by, ready to put shots 0:01:34.840 --> 0:01:38.000 in arms if the world will only let the vaccines flow. 0:01:38.319 --> 0:01:40.880 So it's not really a market. It's controlled a lot 0:01:40.920 --> 0:01:44.039 by the various governments and the options that they took out. 0:01:44.400 --> 0:01:47.240 That was good because it got supply going, but now 0:01:47.280 --> 0:01:50.680 there's a chance to really distribute the supply worldwide. Who 0:01:50.760 --> 0:01:54.160 is your most important phone call to Washington or to 0:01:54.280 --> 0:02:00.840 London to get this done. I've talked with the US administration. 0:02:01.000 --> 0:02:04.680 There's several different parts of the administration. There's UH, there's 0:02:05.000 --> 0:02:08.720 the the NSC, and the there's the HHS, the Health 0:02:08.720 --> 0:02:12.200 and Human Services Department, and so it's I think there's 0:02:12.320 --> 0:02:15.400 there's got to be a consensus within the US that 0:02:15.480 --> 0:02:19.040 there is sufficient supply and therefore it can be released. 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:22.280 And I emphasize to countries that have programs in place. 0:02:22.639 --> 0:02:25.640 You saw the New York Times article I guess yesterday 0:02:25.919 --> 0:02:29.640 which described the waste that's going on for some of 0:02:29.680 --> 0:02:33.240 the distribution outlets. They go to countries that can't use it, 0:02:33.520 --> 0:02:37.040 and then the vaccines are burned because they've they've expired, 0:02:37.240 --> 0:02:39.919 So we want to avoid that and actually get people 0:02:40.320 --> 0:02:44.919 vaccinated that have systems in place. I repeat. The World 0:02:44.919 --> 0:02:48.760 Bank has fifty programs UH will will have uh nearly 0:02:48.800 --> 0:02:52.160 four billion dollars more than four billion dollars ready to 0:02:52.240 --> 0:02:56.560 pay if someone needs money to facilitate and importantly, the 0:02:56.600 --> 0:03:00.680 money can go to actual deployment within countries so that 0:03:00.720 --> 0:03:04.760 they can they can vaccinate we hope hundreds of millions 0:03:04.760 --> 0:03:08.079 of people. Meanwhile, the US has actually started to release 0:03:08.200 --> 0:03:13.000 much more vaccine to other nations that are in need recently. 0:03:13.200 --> 0:03:16.360 How much has a distribution. The increased distribution from the 0:03:16.440 --> 0:03:20.560 US and other companies other countries forestalled the emerging markets 0:03:20.600 --> 0:03:25.200 crisis the World Bank has been seeing brewing. It's important 0:03:25.240 --> 0:03:28.560 to note what the delivery schedules for those vaccines are 0:03:28.800 --> 0:03:31.240 and to know if they're going into countries that are 0:03:31.280 --> 0:03:36.320 prepared to receive the vaccines and actually and actually UH 0:03:36.440 --> 0:03:40.160 deploy them, you know, put shots in arms. UH. And 0:03:40.320 --> 0:03:42.680 one of the one of the big challenges in the 0:03:42.800 --> 0:03:47.640 developing countries really worldwide is the hesitancy. Some people don't 0:03:47.640 --> 0:03:50.080 want to don't want to be vaccinated, So one of 0:03:50.120 --> 0:03:53.600 the things we're doing in in our in client countries 0:03:54.080 --> 0:03:57.880 is have a communications effort by the country to encourage 0:03:57.920 --> 0:04:00.520 people to be vaccinated. That's going to say of lives 0:04:00.800 --> 0:04:03.440 UH and it also brings the economies back on stream. 0:04:03.520 --> 0:04:06.960 So it's important to be vaccinated and to have a 0:04:07.000 --> 0:04:11.000 program of vaccination in these countries. I don't know where 0:04:11.160 --> 0:04:15.040 the us UH supplies are going, and I think you know, 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:19.320 I've called for much greater transparency in terms of the 0:04:19.360 --> 0:04:22.880 supply we have. The World Bank has put up a 0:04:22.920 --> 0:04:26.760 major website that shows all of our program documents. You know, 0:04:26.880 --> 0:04:30.920 it takes a lot of preparation for countries to actually 0:04:31.080 --> 0:04:34.280 show they can vaccinate. So each of the documents is 0:04:34.320 --> 0:04:37.400 you know, as much as fifty pages describing who will 0:04:37.440 --> 0:04:40.840 do the vaccinations, what the what the system within each 0:04:40.839 --> 0:04:43.920 country is in order to do it fairly, and how 0:04:44.120 --> 0:04:46.400 how they'll be paid for, how the costs will be 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:49.240 paid for. So I've encouraged others to do that to 0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:53.440 the transparency is important, David. This is a sensitive question. 0:04:53.760 --> 0:04:57.880 There's a question of which vaccine which countries actually receive, 0:04:57.960 --> 0:05:01.400 and it comes as independent studies show that, for example, 0:05:01.600 --> 0:05:05.800 Chinese vaccines have not been as efficacious as those created 0:05:05.800 --> 0:05:09.440 by Visor and MODERNA. Is the World Bank placing an 0:05:09.480 --> 0:05:12.719 emphasis on the type of vaccine, the brand of vaccine 0:05:12.720 --> 0:05:15.680 that is received and given it to specific countries, or 0:05:15.720 --> 0:05:19.599 is it any vaccine treated equally. They need to be 0:05:19.839 --> 0:05:23.160 w h O approved or approved by a by a 0:05:23.400 --> 0:05:28.120 a regulatory agency the US, Europe, Japan, UH and there's 0:05:28.160 --> 0:05:31.560 only a few that have been approved. But but one 0:05:31.600 --> 0:05:35.000 thing I emphasize is most of the vaccines are better 0:05:35.040 --> 0:05:39.240 than not being vaccinated, and so that's important. Are initially 0:05:39.279 --> 0:05:42.880 in our in our in our January and February programs, UH, 0:05:42.960 --> 0:05:46.680 it was it was mostly Visor and MODERNA and we're 0:05:46.720 --> 0:05:50.080 still we're still using that. But it's very important that 0:05:50.120 --> 0:05:53.839 Astra Zeneca, that Johnson and Johnson, that the Chinese vaccine, 0:05:53.880 --> 0:05:56.920 even which has now been approved at least initially by 0:05:57.160 --> 0:06:01.520 w h O, are available and when ctly. Our programs 0:06:01.800 --> 0:06:06.279 allow different vaccines to be distributed in different parts of 0:06:06.320 --> 0:06:10.640 a country. Rural areas may want a different vaccine than 0:06:10.960 --> 0:06:14.359 hospitals and made your cities, and we've described that in 0:06:14.400 --> 0:06:17.080 our programs. That's a really important part of getting the 0:06:17.160 --> 0:06:22.039 job done properly. So we're able to accept and use 0:06:22.279 --> 0:06:25.000 all of those that I mentioned. Uh, and there will 0:06:25.040 --> 0:06:27.800 be more, which is which is great. Uh. And we 0:06:27.839 --> 0:06:33.360 can also acquire or receive vaccines through kovacs the International Consortium, 0:06:33.640 --> 0:06:36.440 if it has supplied. That's been one of the challenges 0:06:36.640 --> 0:06:40.200 and that was discussed in the New York Times article yesterday. David. 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:42.880 That's an important distinction. And as always we appreciate your time. 0:06:42.880 --> 0:06:45.200 You're often generous with it, So thank you, David Malpas 0:06:45.279 --> 0:06:52.919 that the World Bank President how Would Walked, joined us 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:56.040 now compaty fun Sea of growth equities. Howard, what an 0:06:56.080 --> 0:06:59.279 important transition point for this economy is You've pointed out 0:06:59.440 --> 0:07:01.960 pink growth is here potentially and we're about to make 0:07:01.960 --> 0:07:05.600 this transition from recovery to expansion. How it is a 0:07:05.680 --> 0:07:08.200 market participant? How do you think about that dynamic? Hevin Polton? 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:12.680 Is it? Well, first of all, it's been I think 0:07:12.760 --> 0:07:14.720 you have to say that we can argue about the 0:07:14.760 --> 0:07:18.400 amount of stimulus, what the Feds done and all the spending, 0:07:18.880 --> 0:07:21.559 but it's been very successful. The economy is rip roaring, 0:07:22.120 --> 0:07:24.920 and this is the quarter where we will transition from 0:07:24.960 --> 0:07:27.840 recovery to expansion, and we don't know the exact data 0:07:27.840 --> 0:07:30.200 on then maybe it's today. Maybe we expansion has just 0:07:30.280 --> 0:07:33.800 begun this morning. I don't know, but uh, the outlook 0:07:33.840 --> 0:07:38.280 remains sterling. In terms of growth. You're looking at six 0:07:38.360 --> 0:07:41.240 percent plus growth this year. We haven't seen that in 0:07:41.280 --> 0:07:45.760 this country since after last year we had negative three 0:07:45.760 --> 0:07:47.760 and a half percent growth, the worst growth since nine 0:07:49.160 --> 0:07:52.040 and next year we're looking for a slowdown to aout 0:07:52.080 --> 0:07:54.680 four percent. We haven't even had that for twenty years. 0:07:54.760 --> 0:07:59.400 And so the stimulus and the reopening in the economy 0:07:59.440 --> 0:08:02.680 is providing a tremendous lift. And I do think you 0:08:02.720 --> 0:08:04.800 were talking about the bank lending earlier. I do think 0:08:04.800 --> 0:08:06.680 you're going to see the demand for lawns pick up. 0:08:07.000 --> 0:08:10.520 It has to, given what's going on in the general economy. Howard, 0:08:10.520 --> 0:08:13.360 were you talk about the rocky road ahead. We had 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:16.640 a lovely move here coming out of this expansion, and 0:08:16.680 --> 0:08:19.920 you are enthusiastic, But you talk about a grind and 0:08:20.000 --> 0:08:23.720 you talk about a rocky tape. What I n if 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:27.600 I'm enjoying a rocky tape day to day? Well, I 0:08:27.600 --> 0:08:30.400 would first of all just make the point that typically 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:33.040 in the second year after you get the big advance 0:08:33.120 --> 0:08:35.520 in the market coming off the bottom, that second year 0:08:35.640 --> 0:08:38.599 usually is much more muted, you know, think returns in 0:08:38.679 --> 0:08:42.600 the sort of eight to twelve percent range, not range. 0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:46.520 And if you went back and compared the current trajectory 0:08:46.520 --> 0:08:48.720 of the market to what happened coming out of the 0:08:49.000 --> 0:08:52.520 oh nine bottom, we've been following that path very closely. 0:08:53.160 --> 0:08:55.560 And if we do continue to follow that path or 0:08:55.559 --> 0:08:59.080 that script, then we will have a hiccup or two 0:08:59.440 --> 0:09:02.560 in the next six months, because in two thousand and ten, 0:09:02.720 --> 0:09:05.880 after a surging market in two thousand and nine, that's 0:09:05.880 --> 0:09:08.640 exactly what happened. Now that market is still close higher 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:10.240 in two thousand and ten, and I think it will 0:09:10.559 --> 0:09:14.600 be nicely higher this year. Uh, particularly so because I 0:09:14.640 --> 0:09:16.520 think even more so than in two thousand and ten. 0:09:16.920 --> 0:09:22.560 Earnings outlook is is truly uh remarkable, to say the least, 0:09:22.640 --> 0:09:26.480 because the while the consensus earnings expectations would be for 0:09:26.520 --> 0:09:30.960 growth of about thirty this year and next year, so 0:09:31.800 --> 0:09:33.960 two dollars on the SMP this year, two oh five, 0:09:34.000 --> 0:09:36.440 two oh six next year. Tom if you look at 0:09:36.440 --> 0:09:39.400 the first quarter earnings that have been reported, the annualized 0:09:39.440 --> 0:09:42.079 runway on those is around two hundred dollars. So that 0:09:42.120 --> 0:09:46.319 would suggest that the consensus earnings numbers for both this 0:09:46.440 --> 0:09:49.000 year and next year are materially lower that can be 0:09:49.040 --> 0:09:52.400 substantially higher, and so I do think that, Yeah, I 0:09:52.400 --> 0:09:54.400 think we're gonna have a rocky tape. We've seen that 0:09:54.440 --> 0:09:57.400 a little bit. Rates are are and should be grinding 0:09:57.480 --> 0:10:01.080 higher in tangent with an economy this strong and with 0:10:01.160 --> 0:10:04.000 some heightened inflationary fears. And it's going to be that 0:10:04.240 --> 0:10:08.040 grinding higher interest rates that creates the rocky tape. But 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:11.360 beyond that, the outlook at mean is very positive. I 0:10:11.400 --> 0:10:14.680 would not be too cute in trying to trade this market. 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:17.720 It's too early to turn your back on this school market. 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:20.920 Just real quick here, I'm wondering what is priced in, 0:10:21.040 --> 0:10:24.040 certainly to US equities at this point, given the fact 0:10:24.320 --> 0:10:28.560 that Janie Henderson just upgraded their forecast for global dividend 0:10:28.600 --> 0:10:31.280 payments to one point three six trillion dollars this year, 0:10:31.320 --> 0:10:36.640 the third highest on record, Well, there's a lot priced in, 0:10:37.080 --> 0:10:39.319 and and so you're talking if you looked at those 0:10:39.320 --> 0:10:42.240 consensus numbers and markets, you know, twenty three or so 0:10:42.600 --> 0:10:48.800 times for twelve month earnings historically, you know, for example, 0:10:48.880 --> 0:10:52.800 in two thousand nineteen, when rates were in the low 0:10:52.880 --> 0:10:55.559 two percent range, on the tenure, you had the marketed 0:10:55.600 --> 0:10:58.280 around sixteen and a half times fuller learnings, So there's 0:10:58.480 --> 0:11:01.800 a pretty big gap there. And uh, we should be 0:11:01.880 --> 0:11:05.120 returning to an environment over the next six to twelve 0:11:05.200 --> 0:11:07.720 months where that tenure yield us back in that two 0:11:07.800 --> 0:11:10.000 and a quarter to two and a half percent range. 0:11:10.040 --> 0:11:13.000 That's that's my opinion. And so if you go back 0:11:13.040 --> 0:11:15.319 to that range, that should call, you know, maybe for 0:11:15.440 --> 0:11:18.920 some pressure on equity prices. But but I'll have to 0:11:19.000 --> 0:11:21.640 go back to my comment on earnings. If we earned 0:11:22.600 --> 0:11:26.720 over two hundred dollars this year and to maybe even 0:11:27.000 --> 0:11:31.120 to thirty five next year. Uh, and interest rates are 0:11:32.440 --> 0:11:35.520 moving higher, who's gonna want to own anything but stocks? 0:11:35.960 --> 0:11:38.120 You know, bonds that are going to be negative returns. 0:11:38.480 --> 0:11:41.800 The last twelve months, bonds went nowhere bonsibly negative stocks 0:11:41.840 --> 0:11:46.000 are really the only game in town. And so I 0:11:46.160 --> 0:11:48.640 think that people have to bear that in mind. We 0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:51.199 could be getting a lot of money coming out of 0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:54.439 both cash where a lot of money went during the 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:57.640 last twelve months, both cash as well as fixed income 0:11:58.280 --> 0:12:00.440 in order to fuel continue games and are a lot 0:12:00.480 --> 0:12:02.319 of money still that how we got a lady that 0:12:02.400 --> 0:12:05.480 how it will that abuty fund seat of growth, Sancuty. 0:12:11.640 --> 0:12:14.680 What we're doing economics is we have death siles ten 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:20.160 of the American public, say is one estimation. Jared Bernstein 0:12:20.360 --> 0:12:23.960 is expert at the analysis, the breaking apart, the slicing 0:12:24.040 --> 0:12:27.040 dicing of those death siles, those one tenths of the 0:12:27.080 --> 0:12:30.319 American public. He is with the White House Council of 0:12:30.400 --> 0:12:33.280 Economic Advisors and has been a lead advisor to the 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:37.120 President of the United States for over a decade. Dr Bernstein, 0:12:37.200 --> 0:12:39.360 thank you so much for joining us today. Do you 0:12:39.520 --> 0:12:43.400 have an understanding now about which death siles have been 0:12:43.559 --> 0:12:50.439 advantaged by this historic fiscal stimulus? Who's benefited? Yeah, I know, 0:12:50.520 --> 0:12:52.640 it's a great question. One of the things you see 0:12:52.679 --> 0:12:54.880 when the job market tightens up, and this has been 0:12:54.880 --> 0:12:57.920 a theme of my work for decades, is that those 0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:00.680 in the bottom half we be the bottom I've deciles, 0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:03.679 if you want to stick to that metric, um UH 0:13:04.120 --> 0:13:09.120 benefit disproportionately. When the job market tightens up. You see 0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:13.200 the black unemployment rate come down faster. In those situations, 0:13:13.520 --> 0:13:15.640 you see the wages of low wage workers get a 0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:18.800 bigger pop. They're just a lot more sensitive to the 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:22.520 kinds of bargaining power benefits that come from a full 0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:25.959 employment economy, so heading back the full employment as quickly 0:13:26.040 --> 0:13:28.880 as possible is one of the goals of our of 0:13:29.320 --> 0:13:32.920 our fiscal policy, and the American Rescue Plan is clearly 0:13:33.040 --> 0:13:36.160 helping to pull the recovery forward. Not unlike comments I've 0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:38.360 heard on your show this very morning, the kind of 0:13:38.440 --> 0:13:41.080 outcomes that you'd expect maybe later on the psycho charity, 0:13:41.160 --> 0:13:43.160 you starting to see them develop a little bit earlier 0:13:43.200 --> 0:13:48.079 than anticipated. I'm sorry, what were you asking about in 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:50.400 terms of the outcomes you'd expect in the labor market 0:13:50.520 --> 0:13:53.360 later on in the cycle, which is when you really 0:13:53.480 --> 0:13:55.599 really start to erode some of the slack. Are you 0:13:55.679 --> 0:13:58.600 starting to see some of those symptoms earlier in the cycle. 0:13:58.640 --> 0:14:00.439 We're starting to see them now, as as to say 0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:05.720 several years down the line. I think you're seeing a few, 0:14:05.880 --> 0:14:09.160 but it's more anecdotal and scattered. It really hasn't shown 0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:11.120 up in the data yet. If you look at the 0:14:11.160 --> 0:14:16.319 wage data adjusted for compositional effects, you see some promising 0:14:17.160 --> 0:14:21.520 hints here and there, and you certainly hear anecdotal wage 0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:24.080 offers that are getting a bump. I do think lower 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:27.160 wage workers have some bargaining power based on these dynamics 0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:29.480 that we've been talking about. But remember, we still have 0:14:29.640 --> 0:14:33.480 a highly elevated unemployment rate north of six percent. For blacks, 0:14:33.520 --> 0:14:36.360 the unemployment rate is nine point seven percent, So we 0:14:36.480 --> 0:14:38.480 still have a long way to go. But yeah, we're 0:14:38.560 --> 0:14:40.880 we're seeing some hints in that regard, and I like 0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:44.080 the way you teed it up, John, which is eroding slack. 0:14:44.520 --> 0:14:47.680 That's precisely that that's just so important to middle and 0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:50.080 low wage workers at the moment. There's another dynamic that 0:14:50.400 --> 0:14:53.640 has become very political Charitis. I'm sure you'll appreciate more 0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:57.160 than twenty Republican states, the governors have basically gotten rid 0:14:57.520 --> 0:15:01.200 of the extra additional unemployed and insurance. What do you 0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:03.880 think the consequence of that decision will be in the day, Sat, 0:15:03.960 --> 0:15:05.600 that would expect to see in the coming month, coming 0:15:05.600 --> 0:15:10.080 complements deeper into sum up. Yeah, it's it's it's a 0:15:10.240 --> 0:15:12.800 it's a good question. And and here's you know, one 0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:16.080 of the natural experiments that economists love to tap um. 0:15:16.280 --> 0:15:20.479 And we're we're definitely concerned about taking off enhanced unemployment 0:15:20.520 --> 0:15:23.680 benefits too soon. Every state's going to act on its own, 0:15:23.720 --> 0:15:27.800 and obviously, economic conditions differ across states. The President has 0:15:27.880 --> 0:15:30.560 leaned into this pretty firmly, saying that, you know, people 0:15:30.600 --> 0:15:33.120 who are offered a suitable, safe job need to take it. 0:15:33.200 --> 0:15:36.040 That's part of the rules of the unemployment insurance system. 0:15:36.280 --> 0:15:39.120 But this system has been so important to helping workers, 0:15:39.400 --> 0:15:42.840 not just the standard based system, but also the added 0:15:43.080 --> 0:15:47.200 enhanced benefits for workers who are less connected to unemployment 0:15:47.240 --> 0:15:50.200 because maybe they're gig workers, are self employed, and so 0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:54.560 it's really helped people get through the recovery, gets i'm sorry, 0:15:54.640 --> 0:15:57.440 get through the crisis to the other side. And along 0:15:57.560 --> 0:16:00.200 with the distribution of the vaccine, it's been one of 0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:03.040 the more important parts, you know, shots and arms, checks 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:06.000 and pockets. That's been part of the formula. Jared, do 0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:10.160 you see the enhanced unemployment benefits as being a template 0:16:10.280 --> 0:16:13.000 or serving as a template going forward for some sort 0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:17.360 of universal basic income, especially if the participation rate continues 0:16:17.480 --> 0:16:22.560 to fall as it has over recent decades. You know, 0:16:22.640 --> 0:16:25.080 it's a fair question. I would probably say the direct 0:16:25.160 --> 0:16:27.800 impact payments are the checks are closer to that than 0:16:28.280 --> 0:16:32.280 the UI the unemployment insurance payments. I mean, unemployment insurance 0:16:32.400 --> 0:16:35.680 is just that it's a specific insurance program, a safety 0:16:35.760 --> 0:16:38.280 net for people who lose their jobs. And it's one 0:16:38.360 --> 0:16:40.960 that those course has been in place for many, many decades. 0:16:41.200 --> 0:16:45.160 It's proved to be an extremely important countercyclical force. I 0:16:45.320 --> 0:16:49.760 do think the system needs work, and the administration is 0:16:49.880 --> 0:16:51.560 very committed to doing that. If you listen to the 0:16:51.600 --> 0:16:54.720 President's discussion of making sure that the next time we 0:16:54.840 --> 0:16:56.520 hit it down trip we hit it with the with 0:16:56.800 --> 0:16:59.040 with the UI system, that's that's more ready for that. 0:16:59.720 --> 0:17:01.880 That that I think is an important part of our 0:17:01.960 --> 0:17:06.000 kind of policy infrastructure, that that that we're we're committed 0:17:06.040 --> 0:17:08.480 to working on dr pruting. I want you to speak 0:17:08.560 --> 0:17:10.960 to a small business out there that is petrified of 0:17:11.040 --> 0:17:14.800 what they see from fancy, big corporations of fifteen dollars 0:17:14.880 --> 0:17:18.120 an hour, seventeen dollars an hour and up and up wages. 0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:20.640 I want you to study David Card and the wonderful 0:17:20.680 --> 0:17:24.359 Alan Krueger and the arch fear that if we raise 0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:28.679 those low minimum wages, all the other wages come up 0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:33.920 with it. What's your evidence on that study? Yeah, So 0:17:34.080 --> 0:17:38.000 this is a very consistent finding around minimum wage increases. 0:17:38.080 --> 0:17:41.920 So that if if the minimum wage goes up, many 0:17:42.000 --> 0:17:44.440 studies have found that there are spillover effects that give 0:17:44.480 --> 0:17:48.840 a bump to workers right above that minimum wage level. Again, 0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:52.240 as I mentioned earlier, we are we are seeing increases 0:17:52.359 --> 0:17:55.000 in low wage offers, uh. And I think that's really 0:17:55.080 --> 0:17:57.640 important to people who are coming back into the labor market. 0:17:57.880 --> 0:18:00.200 Think of it as a price signal. You know, I 0:18:00.320 --> 0:18:01.879 was thinking of you the other day, Tom, because I 0:18:01.960 --> 0:18:03.600 was sort of thinking of this in my head, and 0:18:03.640 --> 0:18:05.440 I'm what I thought was kind of a Keenian way, 0:18:05.560 --> 0:18:08.440 which was sort of like Cane's meets Highak. You know, 0:18:08.560 --> 0:18:12.560 the idea that the stimulus both on the fiscal and 0:18:12.640 --> 0:18:15.840 monetary side, really relief on the fiscal and monetary side, 0:18:16.200 --> 0:18:20.000 and you know, the the uh, the monetary policy uh 0:18:20.400 --> 0:18:24.840 also also helping to move the recovery forward. You've got 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:29.560 price signals. You've got price signals. You've got price signals 0:18:29.600 --> 0:18:32.240 that are that are that are pulling workers back into 0:18:32.320 --> 0:18:35.520 the labor force. You've got the vaccine out there, fifty 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:38.520 percent of adults vaccinated, way ahead of our schedule. And 0:18:38.680 --> 0:18:41.119 I think those are all very promising developments. I mean, 0:18:41.160 --> 0:18:42.800 he does this right at the end of the interview, 0:18:42.920 --> 0:18:45.920 John Ferroll. I mean, Dr Burnstein has set this up huge. 0:18:45.960 --> 0:18:48.480 You're gonna come back. Dr Burnstein. And I don't mean 0:18:48.560 --> 0:18:50.800 on jobs today. We love day have you with John 0:18:50.880 --> 0:18:53.080 on jobs? Say, after the report, you've got to come 0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:56.320 back and we've got to talk about the information that's 0:18:56.359 --> 0:18:58.600 out there that we can't see. We gotta go on 0:18:58.680 --> 0:19:01.520 the edge of Joe Stigler and you know the others 0:19:01.560 --> 0:19:03.800 of the information. Just because he said he was thinking 0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:08.399 of you want him back, I only wanted he was thinking, Jared, 0:19:08.440 --> 0:19:13.240 do you look at the dal Jones industrial average? Yeah, 0:19:13.359 --> 0:19:20.080 I've heard about that. When you're in the Here's the thing. 0:19:20.160 --> 0:19:23.160 When you're in the White House, you're you're very careful 0:19:23.320 --> 0:19:26.320 not to react every blip in any index, you know, 0:19:26.680 --> 0:19:29.600 minute to minute or day to day. Much more heads down, 0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:33.080 keep recovery going, deliver the goods to the middle class. 0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:37.640 I think that that's a very diplomatic accounts of that. Yeah, 0:19:37.760 --> 0:19:39.760 it's always think, always going to get you on the show. 0:19:39.920 --> 0:19:49.400 Thank you, sir, besting that house trying to us right now, 0:19:49.680 --> 0:19:51.520 and I am going to rip up the script here 0:19:51.560 --> 0:19:54.320 and I can do that. Of course with the gentleman 0:19:54.400 --> 0:19:58.200 from the Dakota is Kevin Kramer is with orth Dakota, 0:19:58.200 --> 0:20:01.200 I've always got to keep my Dakota is careful here, 0:20:01.359 --> 0:20:04.160 gonna be careful what I do. Senator Kramer, I want 0:20:04.160 --> 0:20:07.119 to stop for a moment for you to speak of 0:20:07.200 --> 0:20:10.639 the symbolism of your Republican Party and the path from 0:20:10.760 --> 0:20:14.200 John Warner dying today at ninety four over to the 0:20:14.320 --> 0:20:18.800 modern Republican party you have identified. I love the idea 0:20:18.880 --> 0:20:22.199 that I think, like Lincoln, you lost your first three elections. 0:20:22.760 --> 0:20:27.800 Tell me how your GOP keeps the Republicans like John 0:20:28.280 --> 0:20:31.680 Warner and frankly, Senator Deportment of Ohio in the full 0:20:32.119 --> 0:20:37.320 how do you keep these liberal Republicans in the party? Well, no, 0:20:37.440 --> 0:20:41.800 thanks for the question. Actually, you know, pragmatism works, and 0:20:42.040 --> 0:20:43.760 I think that one of the things that Donald Trump 0:20:43.840 --> 0:20:46.360 brought to the Republican parties he brought the working class 0:20:46.440 --> 0:20:49.159 Americans to the Republican Party. I think at the end 0:20:49.240 --> 0:20:50.920 of his four years, one of the things we lost 0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:55.639 perhaps are not so much moderates as as probably that 0:20:55.800 --> 0:21:00.199 the polite uh, you know, moderates if you will, um 0:21:00.520 --> 0:21:05.200 certainly the suburban suburban women for example. All of that said, 0:21:05.400 --> 0:21:08.000 I think that we we take the Trump mantra, and 0:21:08.080 --> 0:21:11.399 that is to say, the more um less globalist but 0:21:11.560 --> 0:21:16.600 on America first, globalism, a populism, conservatism, and apply it 0:21:16.760 --> 0:21:20.280 in a gentler way, not not not shyly, by the way, 0:21:20.640 --> 0:21:23.560 but I think we have the right governing philosophy to 0:21:23.680 --> 0:21:26.399 be a majority party. And I just think that. And 0:21:26.640 --> 0:21:29.040 and the other thing is this, quite honestly, Joe Biden 0:21:29.160 --> 0:21:31.120 is going to help us immensely if we can get 0:21:31.160 --> 0:21:33.600 out of our own way and keep highlighting the you know, 0:21:33.680 --> 0:21:36.720 the Biden agenda, which includes everything from destroying American energy 0:21:36.760 --> 0:21:41.439 while building up Iran and in Saudi Arabia and Russian energy. Uh, 0:21:41.600 --> 0:21:44.480 if we talk about, you know, putting so much money 0:21:44.560 --> 0:21:48.119 into the marketplace, um that we create hyper inflation, and 0:21:48.200 --> 0:21:50.399 all the other stuff, the border crisis, what's going on 0:21:50.480 --> 0:21:52.600 in the Middle East, his lack of attention to the 0:21:52.720 --> 0:21:55.720 really big issues. You know, there's nothing like a common 0:21:55.800 --> 0:21:58.399 opponent to help unite people. But I do think our 0:21:58.440 --> 0:22:01.480 own message, to your point, needs to be the Trump 0:22:01.640 --> 0:22:04.600 message delivered in a way that people are listening, and 0:22:04.760 --> 0:22:08.000 the lessons learned of losing the presidency, losing the House, 0:22:08.160 --> 0:22:10.840 losing the Senate. Granted, these are by all small numbers. 0:22:10.920 --> 0:22:15.200 In two thousand twenty two, beccons, how do you coalesced 0:22:15.280 --> 0:22:20.320 the GOP on social issues so removed from the core 0:22:20.400 --> 0:22:24.520 Trump constituency, and I might say social issues that Senator 0:22:24.600 --> 0:22:30.120 Warner of Virginia lead with through the seventies and the eighties. Yeah. 0:22:30.240 --> 0:22:32.119 So I think there's a couple of things. On one 0:22:32.240 --> 0:22:34.560 is we're seeing a trend that actually does benefit us, 0:22:34.640 --> 0:22:37.600 a demographic trend, and that is the Hispanic Americans are 0:22:37.800 --> 0:22:40.040 coming for our way, and they came more our way 0:22:40.160 --> 0:22:42.480 under Donald Trump. They became our our way because of 0:22:42.520 --> 0:22:44.520 Donald Trump because they identified more as a working class 0:22:44.600 --> 0:22:48.320 Americans than they do as Hispanic Americans, which is really 0:22:48.400 --> 0:22:50.560 the heart of the American dream. I think we take 0:22:50.680 --> 0:22:54.680 that same social message and social message that is job 0:22:54.840 --> 0:22:59.000 creation and and pro family. You don't have to apologize 0:22:59.080 --> 0:23:01.960 for being a family. Have to certainly understand the culture 0:23:02.000 --> 0:23:05.199 you live in and and and speak to it. But um, 0:23:05.480 --> 0:23:07.040 I think that we need, you know, we need to 0:23:07.080 --> 0:23:09.680 get back in many cases to our roots, but also 0:23:09.800 --> 0:23:14.119