Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. Have an amazing
Speaker 3: show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?
Speaker 4: Indeed we do.
Speaker 2: It looks like the cultural revolution is off that intellectuals
Speaker 2: are going to get at least a reprieve from being
Speaker 2: sent to the iPhone factory to screw in all of
Speaker 2: the little little screw for ninety days temporarily. Anyway, of course,
Speaker 2: we're going to cover a lot about the tariffs. Show
Speaker 2: is not one hundred percent tariffs, but it's about ninety
Speaker 2: percent tariffs. I would say we've got Joe Wisenthal coming
Speaker 2: in to break down what Trump is doing, what it means,
Speaker 2: market reaction, all of that good stuff. We've got some
Speaker 2: pretty serious and I think pretty credible allegations of insider trading.
Speaker 2: So we will break down for you the timeline and
Speaker 2: the evidence and you can evaluate for yourself. We got
Speaker 2: a bunch of you know, Republicans and administration officials.
Speaker 4: What they were saying.
Speaker 2: Before the pause or the roll back, what they're saying now.
Speaker 4: It's pretty extraordinary.
Speaker 2: The President himself being much more honest about the reason
Speaker 2: that he decided to change course. Basically got freaked out
Speaker 2: by the bond market, so he joined the Panicans. I
Speaker 2: guess I'm really excited for this. We have Ryan Peterson,
Speaker 2: he's the CEO of Flexport, coming on to talk about
Speaker 2: also this terraf regime, what is going to mean. But
Speaker 2: also more importantly, there's another change that's coming down the
Speaker 2: pike that we briefly mentioned the other day that could
Speaker 2: be incredibly significant and quite devastating to supply chains and
Speaker 2: to global shipping. So really want to hear from him
Speaker 2: on that. And then we've got a couple of updates
Speaker 2: with regard to both immigration policy, social media accounts are
Speaker 2: now going to be filtered for any sort of quote
Speaker 2: unquote anti semitism before people are given student visas or
Speaker 2: green card status, things like that. And also we have
Speaker 2: a quite significant couple of court updates with regard to
Speaker 2: the Alien Enemies Acts that wanted to follow up on
Speaker 2: that since we had that segment with Peaceco breaking down
Speaker 2: the Supreme Court.
Speaker 4: Ruling the other day.
Speaker 2: So to all of you guys who have been helping
Speaker 2: us out this week amidst a lot of economic turmoil,
Speaker 2: we have really really appreciated. We've seen a big spike
Speaker 2: this week just because of interest in tariffs on what's
Speaker 2: going on. So if you can become a premium member,
Speaker 2: of course, we really appreciate it. If you can't do that,
Speaker 2: totally get it. If you can like, if you can subscribe,
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Speaker 1: Exactly right Breakingpoints dot com.
Speaker 3: And for the podcast listeners, we don't forget about you either.
Speaker 3: As we said, the best thing you can do leave
Speaker 3: a five star review or take the episode literally, just
Speaker 3: share it with a friend. It's tremendously impactful. So let's
Speaker 3: you go ahead and start with the tariffs, as you
Speaker 3: said the White House. I'm sure some of you have
Speaker 3: heard at the point a pause is on. Let's go
Speaker 3: and put it up there on the screen. Quote based
Speaker 3: on the lack of respect China has shown to the
Speaker 3: world market, I am hereby raising the tariff charged to
Speaker 3: China by the United States of America to one hundred
Speaker 3: and twenty five percent effective immediately. That's a retaliation for
Speaker 3: their eighty four percent tariff that was put into place.
Speaker 3: There's still some big questions as to that one hundred
Speaker 3: and twenty five percent tariff. Does it in addition to
Speaker 3: the twenty percent tariff that we're there meaning would be
Speaker 3: what is that one hundred and fifty five percent tariff?
Speaker 1: Seems to be possible, he says, But this is the
Speaker 1: most important point.
Speaker 3: I have authorized a ninety day pause and substantially lowered
Speaker 3: reciprocal tariff during this period of ten percent effective immediately,
Speaker 3: he says, as a result of more than seventy five
Speaker 3: countries that have called representatives of the United States to
Speaker 3: express interest in negotiations. So immediately afterwards, there were a
Speaker 3: lot of questions here did Trump cave? Did he Was
Speaker 3: this his strategy all along? Was he a madman. Was
Speaker 3: he bluffing? Did he have to convince people he was crazy?
Speaker 3: Was it the art the deal?
Speaker 5: Well?
Speaker 1: Trump actually answered that for himself.
Speaker 3: He came out immediately in front steps of the White
Speaker 3: House and he's like, yeah, I did it because people
Speaker 3: were getting afraid.
Speaker 1: Let's take a lesson.
Speaker 6: Why you decided to put a ninety day pause.
Speaker 7: Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit
Speaker 7: out of line. They were getting yippie, you know, they
Speaker 7: were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid,
Speaker 7: unlike these champions. Because we have a big job to do.
Speaker 7: No other president would have done what I did. No
Speaker 7: other president I know, the presidents, they wouldn't have done it.
Speaker 7: And it had to be done. What was happening to
Speaker 7: us on trade, not only with you know, if you
Speaker 7: look at it, not only with China, but China is
Speaker 7: by far the biggest abuser in history and others also.
Speaker 7: But somebody had to do it. They had to stop
Speaker 7: because it was not sustainable. Last year, China made one
Speaker 7: trillion dollars off trade with the United States.
Speaker 6: It's not right. And now I've reversed it. It's for a.
Speaker 7: Short period of time, but we made two billion dollars.
Speaker 7: We're making now two billion dollars a day, and somebody
Speaker 7: had to do it. Roger actually said that Josh Schwab
Speaker 7: was here a little while ago, one of the great
Speaker 7: financial people, and he said he's been waiting for forty
Speaker 7: years for somebody to do what I did over the
Speaker 7: last month. Nothing's over yet, but we have a tremendous
Speaker 7: amount of spirit from other countries, including China.
Speaker 6: China wants to make a deal. They just don't know
Speaker 6: how quite to go about it.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 6: It's one of those things that are not quite proud people.
Speaker 3: People are getting a little bit eppy. That's what the
Speaker 3: president says. Yet, if you listen to his advisors, this
Speaker 3: was the plan all along. Here's the Commerce Secretary, Howard
Speaker 3: luck Nick. Nobody backed off. Absolutely, this was all part
Speaker 3: of the plan.
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 8: So Miss Secretary tonight, you can definitively say this was
Speaker 8: not a walk back. This was not something that the
Speaker 8: bond markets were cratering and you were worried about it.
Speaker 8: You know that this is part of your plan. There's
Speaker 8: a lot of folks saying and there were just mixed
Speaker 8: messages that really left the markets jitterary.
Speaker 9: Donald Trump is the best negotiator that there is. He
Speaker 9: understands how to do these things, and he gave these
Speaker 9: were crystal clear instructions. No negotiating till two days ago.
Speaker 9: He would be willing to negotiate, but broadly, and then
Speaker 9: yesterday was I'll do bespoke, and bespoke that's what launched it.
Speaker 9: I mean, every country wanted to come and talk to
Speaker 9: us and what are we supposed to do? So Scott
Speaker 9: and I went in and talked to him about what
Speaker 9: do we do and how do we do it? And
Speaker 9: I think this is where we are. So the President
Speaker 9: made his decision. He truthed it out with Scott and
Speaker 9: I in the room, just the three of us together,
Speaker 9: and this is where we are. We just Scott vested,
Speaker 9: myself and Ambassador Jameson Greer, who's our USTR, and just
Speaker 9: have so much work to do with so many different countries.
Speaker 9: But we've got to make fair deals for America. And
Speaker 9: Donald Trump said, for the big countries, the lead negotiator
Speaker 9: of those of those transactions is going to be Donald Trump.
Speaker 9: He wants to do it, he wants to drive it.
Speaker 9: And what could be more fun for Scott and I it.
Speaker 4: Was not a background what could be more fun Sager.
Speaker 3: Marcus Gonning itpie, And so Trump says, we're doing it
Speaker 3: because people got afraid.
Speaker 1: Howard Ludning all part of the plan. You idiots never
Speaker 1: read art of the deal.
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's lot a single scrap of evidence to support that.
Speaker 3: And in reality, all of the talk from behind the
Speaker 3: scenes was not only that he was not going to negotiate,
Speaker 3: he didn't care about the markets. And then he comes
Speaker 3: out and he just says it. He actually undermines all
Speaker 3: of his big defenders. Yeah, that are in the media.
Speaker 3: So before we get to the bond market thing, you
Speaker 3: have anything you want to say, Well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, a couple of just pieces of reporting to add
Speaker 2: to the context. There are apparently two big things. So
Speaker 2: first of all, I don't know if you guys saw
Speaker 2: this floating around, this interview that Jamie Diamond did with
Speaker 2: Marie Barbiromo reporting, is that Trump watched that where he
Speaker 2: said I think that we are going to be in
Speaker 2: a recession because of these moves. Many other people had
Speaker 2: already said this, but and it was like increasingly glaringly obvious.
Speaker 2: And by the way, odds are still pretty decent that
Speaker 2: we're going to end up in a recession. But we'll
Speaker 2: put that aside and talk to Joe Wisenthal a little
Speaker 2: bit more about that. But apparently that, for whatever reason,
Speaker 2: had an impact on him. And then the real thing
Speaker 2: was the bond markets and the Typically when you have
Speaker 2: the stock market fall, you have a lot of people
Speaker 2: fleeing and buying up treasury bonds because it's a flight
Speaker 2: to safety, that's what they call it. The very opposite
Speaker 2: thing was happening here. That freaked everybody out because it's
Speaker 2: an indication that, first of all, things are so bad,
Speaker 2: everyone's just having to liquidate everything to make margin calls
Speaker 2: or keep their head above water. It's what an indication
Speaker 2: of that. It's also an indication guess what, guys, maybe
Speaker 2: the US isn't going to be the safe harbor anymore.
Speaker 2: So when you have those factors, and then also think
Speaker 2: about Trump as a real estate guy who is known
Speaker 2: to use astronomical levels of debt, Well, guess what, but
Speaker 2: your bank loans, the interest rate that you get on
Speaker 2: that is going to be related to the treasury rate.
Speaker 2: So he had a very long time, deep understanding of
Speaker 2: how bad this would be for you know, real estate
Speaker 2: developers or other businesses that want to borrow money from
Speaker 2: the bank. Not to mention one of the eight d
Speaker 2: chess theories of what was going on here is they're
Speaker 2: crashing the economy in order to get the interest rates down.
Speaker 2: The exact opposite thing is happening.
Speaker 4: So if you're going to.
Speaker 2: Have to roll this debt that the US has, there's
Speaker 2: this big debt wall coming up, you're going to be
Speaker 2: paying an even higher price because of these moves that
Speaker 2: you're making. So in the end, he did join the
Speaker 2: Panicans and was like, holy shit, this could be worse.
Speaker 2: And one of the things that was reported, I can't
Speaker 2: remember which outlet reported this, but he was like, you know,
Speaker 2: I'm okay with a recession, but I was getting worried
Speaker 2: that we might be in an actual depression, and so
Speaker 2: he walks back from the edge. Now, to be clear,
Speaker 2: there's still a very hefty terror.
Speaker 4: Regime in place.
Speaker 2: I mean, China's our number one trading partner, know, so
Speaker 2: many of our consumer goods come from China. There is
Speaker 2: an insanely high tariff one hundred and twenty five or
Speaker 2: whatever the hell it is, forty percent one hundred and
Speaker 2: forty percent on goods coming in from China. That alone
Speaker 2: is insanely impactful. Then you still have ten percent tariffs
Speaker 2: across the board. You know, if this is what he
Speaker 2: had originally announced going out to the Rose Garden in
Speaker 2: that speech, there would have been a massive market reaction
Speaker 2: because it's actually worse than what was expected going into
Speaker 2: that speech. But there's a relief because number one, just
Speaker 2: you know, it's not as bad as it was. And
Speaker 2: number two, because it showed that Trump could be moved
Speaker 2: and wasn't just a total madman going for the next
Speaker 2: great depress.
Speaker 1: Yes, that's right.
Speaker 3: That's an important point, and it actually gets to kind
Speaker 3: of a market veto. Let's get into this for the
Speaker 3: bond market before we bring in.
Speaker 1: Joe Wisenthal.
Speaker 3: Charles Gasprino over at Fox News really broke down the
Speaker 3: scare in the bond market and why it ultimately forced
Speaker 3: the White House is hand.
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 5: I want to tell you right now that Donald Trump
Speaker 5: out smarted the world. Trust me, I'm an American. I
Speaker 5: support my president, but that's not really what happened here
Speaker 5: from what I understand, and I know I'll get pushed back,
Speaker 5: but here's what it is. First, off, we should point
Speaker 5: out that one of the good things about this is
Speaker 5: that Scott besson is finally in the White House. He's
Speaker 5: finally leading this. I mean, up until a couple of
Speaker 5: days ago, it was Lutnik, it was Peter Navarro, the
Speaker 5: Commerce Secretary, the Trade Advisor, very much hawks now with
Speaker 5: Scott Bessont, who believes in cutting deals as opposed to
Speaker 5: not just putting these tariffs out there. And let's be
Speaker 5: amercantilistic economy.
Speaker 1: That's number one.
Speaker 5: But number two, let's recall what happened overnight and from
Speaker 5: what I understand, and I'm getting this from people that
Speaker 5: are talking to the White House, what happened in the
Speaker 5: bond market overnight, the spike in yields on the thirty
Speaker 5: year and the ten year bond, which showed that people
Speaker 5: were dumping our bonds. And who are those people dumping
Speaker 5: our bonds? Japan, the biggest holder of bonds, was selling bonds.
Speaker 5: That's what I'm getting from some very big money managers.
Speaker 5: China maybe to some extent, but it was largely Japan
Speaker 5: and others. If you have a mass sale of bonds,
Speaker 5: that means people are losing confidence in the US economy.
Speaker 5: On the ability to do deals with us, and from
Speaker 5: what I understand, this is what forced the hand of
Speaker 5: this ninety day reprieve. Now is it a good thing?
Speaker 5: You know, are people coming to the table. Yeah, But
Speaker 5: if you know, if you read between the lines or not,
Speaker 5: even what Scott Besson said, we have no deals, right,
Speaker 5: there's nobody that is really there saying this is what
Speaker 5: we're going to do. And they paused it anyway. So
Speaker 5: my thing that said, well, I'll give you this, there
Speaker 5: is some art of the deal here. And by the way,
Speaker 5: brilliant move by putting China in the corner. But that's
Speaker 5: a whole separate thing because remember that's a very difficult negotiation.
Speaker 5: Everybody else is a lot easier. They really want to
Speaker 5: they do want to deal with us, whether they want
Speaker 5: to be, you know, forced into really bad trade deals
Speaker 5: on their end as a whole other negotiating story. But
Speaker 5: make no mistake about it, you cannot divorce this decision
Speaker 5: right here from what happened last night, which was you know,
Speaker 5: I people focus on the stock market all the time.
Speaker 5: It's the bond market and the sort of lending markets
Speaker 5: that's the plumbing of the economy, and those markets were
Speaker 5: imploding last night, and that's why we have a ninety
Speaker 5: day freeze. Let's see if those markets improve. If someone
Speaker 5: told me we had a decent treasury auction today, but
Speaker 5: if you can't sell your treasures, guys, and people are
Speaker 5: unloading your treasures, like Japan, which is I believe the
Speaker 5: largest foreign holder after China.
Speaker 3: So as you guys can see there from Charles Gasprino's reporting,
Speaker 3: the bond market is really what forced Donald Trump's hand.
Speaker 3: Spooks to the United States Treasure sector who coming into this
Speaker 3: had said one of the stated goals was to make
Speaker 3: sure that the yield on these bonds was going to
Speaker 3: go lower. That would have, of course, increase in the
Speaker 3: yield would have made mortgages more expensive, it would have
Speaker 3: made the debt servicing more expense. And it's one of
Speaker 3: those where the massive size of that and the overall
Speaker 3: financial impact was a major recessionary indicator. So very very
Speaker 3: clear what went on here, h Donald Trump. This is
Speaker 3: not ourt of the deal. This was straight up he
Speaker 3: got panicked because of the bod market. And now we'll see,
Speaker 3: well he admits it himself, yeah he so, I mean,
Speaker 3: I'm not saying it.
Speaker 2: And it was funny because Gasper that was on Fox
Speaker 2: Fox News or Fox Business was Fox News? Yeah, Fox News,
Speaker 2: and you know it's in the midst of all this
Speaker 2: like North Korea style propaganda about oh art of the
Speaker 2: deal and this was the planel along whenever He's like, well,
Speaker 2: not really based on reporting and now based on the
Speaker 2: president z own words. So let's go and get to
Speaker 2: Joe Wisenthal Bloomberg to break all of us down and
Speaker 2: where we are and what might happen next.
Speaker 3: Very excited now to be joined by Joe Wisenthal of
Speaker 3: the Odd Lots podcast over at Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: He's an all star.
Speaker 3: Him and his co host Tracy are incredible and we
Speaker 3: highly recommend you all listen to them. Joe has been
Speaker 3: making their rounds everywhere explaining to the people about what
Speaker 3: the hell is going on, and we decided that we
Speaker 3: had to have him on here to tell us specifically
Speaker 3: about this whole bond market thing, which we're doing our
Speaker 3: best to break down. Joe, let's take a listen to
Speaker 3: what Donald Trump had to say about the bond market.
Speaker 1: Get your reaction and also in explanations. So let's take
Speaker 1: a listenin the.
Speaker 10: Phone markets that persuaded you to reverse.
Speaker 6: I was watching the bond market. That bond market is
Speaker 6: very tricky. I was watching it. But if you look at.
Speaker 7: It now, it's beautiful.
Speaker 6: The bond market right now is beautiful.
Speaker 7: But yeah, I saw last night where people were getting
Speaker 7: a little queasy. I think everything had well. The big
Speaker 7: move wasn't what I did today. The big move was
Speaker 7: what I did on Liberation Day. We had Liberation Day
Speaker 7: in America. Were liberated from all of the horrible deals that.
Speaker 6: Were made, all of the horrible trade deals that were made.
Speaker 7: And I was helped by people just like this senator,
Speaker 7: congressman and friends, right, and we had great help in
Speaker 7: the Senate. Of course, Republican senators have been amazing. They
Speaker 7: still a doll and likewise in the House.
Speaker 3: So Joe Trump all but meeting there that the bond
Speaker 3: markets are really what forced his hand.
Speaker 1: Can you explain specifically.
Speaker 3: About why that was so impactful for his decision making.
Speaker 11: Yeah, there's a lot of like I would say, sort
Speaker 11: of exoticization of the bond market, particularly in media, and
Speaker 11: people like to have these panises China's jumping bonds you response,
Speaker 11: or Japan dumping bonds and response. It's not that complicated
Speaker 11: really what was going on Tuesday night was extreme panic.
Speaker 11: And in a state of extreme panic, what do you
Speaker 11: do you think about. I got to pay my mortgage
Speaker 11: at the end of the month, I got to pay
Speaker 11: my cell phone bill, I have to pay my Bloomberg subscription,
Speaker 11: and all of that stuff is denominated in dollars.
Speaker 10: Do you sell anything that's not dollars.
Speaker 11: You start selling stocks, you start selling gold, you start
Speaker 11: selling bonds, even which are you know, essentially the safest
Speaker 11: asset in the world, because you want are just those
Speaker 11: liquid dollars to pay your bills. It doesn't help that
Speaker 11: one of the stated goals of this administration outside and
Speaker 11: everything else, was to lower yields, and so this was
Speaker 11: the exact opposite going on. And I think if there's
Speaker 11: probably one market that really resonates with Trump more than
Speaker 11: the stock market, it's the bottom market. Because when your
Speaker 11: real estate your whole, you know, you sort of like
Speaker 11: live and die on your cost, to borrow at your
Speaker 11: cost and capital, it became an untenable situation when you
Speaker 11: saw those dynamic Maybe you can tolerate a hits of
Speaker 11: the stock market, and which I'm actually kind of skeptical
Speaker 11: that the people have the public would have put up
Speaker 11: with very much longer, but it truly becomes untenable when
Speaker 11: people start having to dump what is perceived as like
Speaker 11: the second safest asset in the world. Where the safest
Speaker 11: asset in the world, which is just over nine dollars.
Speaker 2: Got it, guys, can you put a six up on
Speaker 2: the screen. I thought this was interesting chart showing that
Speaker 2: now the midst of tariffs is now actually more tilted
Speaker 2: towards consumer goods, which is just an overall reminder that
Speaker 2: everyone's sort of acting like, okay, well that's over, but
Speaker 2: there's still actually a very steep and almost unprecedented level
Speaker 2: of tariffs that are hitting countries around the world, and
Speaker 2: obviously the massive tariff on China in.
Speaker 4: And of itself is a huge deal.
Speaker 2: So can you help people understand what the reality is
Speaker 2: now and what sort of potential impact it can have
Speaker 2: on the real economy, and you know, your assessment of
Speaker 2: what the markets have done and where they might be added.
Speaker 11: Yeah, look, I'm surprised that we had this huge stock
Speaker 11: market rally yesterday after he pulled back from the brink
Speaker 11: a little bit, because, as I mentioned again Tuesday night, panic, Look,
Speaker 11: the reality is if you just go from now versus
Speaker 11: sort of like pre Rose Garden speech, and you don't
Speaker 11: pay attention to anything that happened. In the meantime, you
Speaker 11: have stock futures that are significantly lower.
Speaker 10: So we've made a hit to the valuation of corporate America.
Speaker 10: Rates are higher.
Speaker 11: Than they were, and the US economy or you know,
Speaker 11: our imports are significantly more tariff than they were. Even
Speaker 11: if you accept this theory that well, you know what
Speaker 11: this is about this big strategy because we're going to isolate,
Speaker 11: We're going to like box out China, We're going to.
Speaker 10: Make all these deals with all these countries that.
Speaker 11: Have lined up to avoid any aggressive reciprocal tariff. Even there,
Speaker 11: we've actually started to drive a wedge between US and
Speaker 11: all of those countries that we want to make a
Speaker 11: deal within, including US, including our continental partners, which are
Speaker 11: more higher tariff. So the fact that is the matter
Speaker 11: that consumer prices will be hired. Now, how this speech
Speaker 11: through to like CPI like actual inflation. I don't think
Speaker 11: it's like totally obvious because if business is slowing, then
Speaker 11: incomes are going to be Hiring is going to be slowing,
Speaker 11: investment's going to be slowing. Maybe you don't actually get insallation,
Speaker 11: but you certainly get less affordability of what people were
Speaker 11: able to buy several weeks ago.
Speaker 10: I think that's the real key thing. The cost of.
Speaker 11: Doing business in the United States is now materially higher
Speaker 11: than it was a week.
Speaker 3: One of the things, Joe, that you were constantly talking
Speaker 3: about over the last week is there are there's a
Speaker 3: lot of cope coming from MAGA influencers in the White House,
Speaker 3: but the stock market is not the real economy.
Speaker 1: It has no connection.
Speaker 3: And I think you have such a good way of
Speaker 3: articulating why that's just empirically not correct. And I want
Speaker 3: people to also to understand you're not some Wall Street
Speaker 3: explainer somebody.
Speaker 10: Yeah, you know, nobody more than you.
Speaker 3: In many respects, but as somebody's been covering this now,
Speaker 3: yeah what twenty years, just explain that to people why
Speaker 3: that's incorrect.
Speaker 11: I've always hated this term, that it's just a cliche
Speaker 11: that probably some columnists once came, Oh, the stock market
Speaker 11: is not the economy. The stock market matters in the
Speaker 11: economy in various ways, and I'll just sort of run
Speaker 11: through them. A lot of people own stocks, at least
Speaker 11: more than half of the US is some sort of explosure.
Speaker 11: So it's not just this niche rich thing to the
Speaker 11: extent that it is skewed. And it is true that
Speaker 11: the ownership of stocks is highly distributed to the ridge.
Speaker 10: It's also true that consumption.
Speaker 11: Is highly skewed, so you're gonna like hit parts of
Speaker 11: the economy that are important drivers of consumption and ongoing activity.
Speaker 11: But there is more than that, because also, like business
Speaker 11: investments is in part going to be determined by the
Speaker 11: cost and capital and the stock market. And when companies
Speaker 11: see their stocks going up and they're being rewarded for
Speaker 11: what they're doing, they do.
Speaker 10: More of it.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 11: And then when they're not and the stock market goes down,
Speaker 11: they take that as a message, oh, we need.
Speaker 10: To cut workers, we need to expand. So it has
Speaker 10: an impact on that.
Speaker 11: It has an impact on VC and early stage higher
Speaker 11: because the dream of any startup is to either go
Speaker 11: public or sell to a public company ultimately. And if
Speaker 11: the if that IPO window is closed, or if those
Speaker 11: public companies have diminished valuations, that reduces your possible exit.
Speaker 11: That reduces the multiples and the valuations you're going to get.
Speaker 11: In the early stage or early stage activity, and then
Speaker 11: finally beyond that, I would just say that, like, no
Speaker 11: one really talks or speaks up for the stockholder. And
Speaker 11: I don't mean that in a facetious way like it's
Speaker 11: going to think of the poor stockholder. I mean a
Speaker 11: lot of people you know, like by stocks on Robinhood.
Speaker 10: And you know, it's so funny to me that.
Speaker 11: There's all this anxiety, particularly from Democrats, like how are
Speaker 11: we going to like reach out to you know, young
Speaker 11: brothers who listen to podcasts and stuff like that, but
Speaker 11: they don't talk about them. They working families and the
Speaker 11: costs of you know, buy stuff, all.
Speaker 10: Of which really matters. But a lot of you know,
Speaker 10: young men who listen to podcasts have Robbinood accounts.
Speaker 11: And so there's there's sort of like ignorance of the
Speaker 11: fact that a lot of people are in some way or.
Speaker 10: Another directly exposed to the stock market.
Speaker 11: Which is why I say they even setting aside the
Speaker 11: bond market tell off that we saw over the last
Speaker 11: couple of days before the blank, I don't think it's
Speaker 11: like tenable to just let stocks fall apart like that
Speaker 11: and not acknowledge how much that directly is going to
Speaker 11: affect things, and how quickly it's going to affect things
Speaker 11: both from a consumption and hiring.
Speaker 2: Stand what is your sense of what this is actually
Speaker 2: all about? You know, because you get all these different explanations.
Speaker 4: Depends on the day.
Speaker 2: Sometimes the same person will say multiple different things. It's reindustrializing,
Speaker 2: it's more round new, it's you know, it's a it's a.
Speaker 4: Go siating tactic.
Speaker 2: Actually, we want Republicans that one of their coked like
Speaker 2: free trade type republicans like, oh, we're actually going to
Speaker 2: try to get to a zero terraff resu. Yeah, that's
Speaker 2: the real goal. I mean, what are you able to divine?
Speaker 2: And by the way, another theory of what's going on
Speaker 2: here is just like insider trading that you know, Trump
Speaker 2: can make announcements and move the market and buy you know,
Speaker 2: and if you're on the inside you can profit off
Speaker 2: of that, and if you're not, then you don't. What
Speaker 2: is your sense of what's actually going on here?
Speaker 10: Yeah?
Speaker 11: The insider trading theories of assign a level of coordination
Speaker 11: internal coordination in the White House that I do not.
Speaker 11: Then I think it's probably giving the White House too
Speaker 11: much credit. You read those that reporting in the Wall
Speaker 11: Street Journal or the New York Times.
Speaker 10: We're knowing even on the inside.
Speaker 11: Knew that there was going to be this pivot until
Speaker 11: maybe ten minutes before, and so I, you know, I
Speaker 11: do not think that the entire plan was like that
Speaker 11: well crafted to like, okay, we're going to put the
Speaker 11: word out among the insiders. All that being said, I
Speaker 11: don't know, And I think this is part of what
Speaker 11: the issue for the market is.
Speaker 10: You know, it's hard to know what the end goal is.
Speaker 10: We all, what do we know.
Speaker 11: We know Trump has been a fan of tariffs for decades,
Speaker 11: so that's a reality one possible. There seems to be
Speaker 11: this cultural thing among a lot of influencers where they
Speaker 11: just like think that manufacturing is like per se good
Speaker 11: that'll be sort of rejuvenating for the nation. In some respective,
Speaker 11: more people were working in the manufactured goods sector.
Speaker 10: What I find annoying about that take is this.
Speaker 11: Sort of uh, you know, covering the eyes of the
Speaker 11: fact that we actually had a lot of factories built
Speaker 11: in twenty twenty two to twenty twenty three, et cetera.
Speaker 10: A lot of this was already going on.
Speaker 11: In fact, it might even get worse of their terraf
Speaker 11: regime if imported intermediate goods to build things actually get costlier,
Speaker 11: so it could actually reverse it. And then the other
Speaker 11: thing I'm wondering about afterwards is, you know, I used
Speaker 11: to think that part of the goal here was like
Speaker 11: it's important for the.
Speaker 10: US to match China on key.
Speaker 11: Manufactured or strategic goods, particularly related to high seed or
Speaker 11: particularly related to things that go into weaponry. Now I'm
Speaker 11: wondering if the goal is just to crush the Chinese economy,
Speaker 11: which again is about the US China tension, but is different.
Speaker 11: It's a little bit more overt and like the goal
Speaker 11: is not to madge China or supersede China. The goal
Speaker 11: is to actually do damage to a growing geopolitical ride.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's certainly possible.
Speaker 3: One of the things that you and I have been
Speaker 3: talking a lot about recently, Joe, is about this idea
Speaker 3: of bringing manufacturing or jobs. But what you have consistently
Speaker 3: pointed out is that since the imposition of tariffs, it
Speaker 3: is the manufacturers themselves who are screaming about increasing costs.
Speaker 3: So in any regime where there would be tariffs, what
Speaker 3: sort of capital injection tax plan confidence with these people
Speaker 3: have to have to actually.
Speaker 1: Wind up to the stated goal of the White House.
Speaker 3: And I think of many Americans who brings some certain
Speaker 3: critical industry, manufacturing, et cetera back to here.
Speaker 1: We don't see that right now.
Speaker 11: Industrialization is insane insanely difficult. Most countries historically seem to
Speaker 11: fail at these efforts. Where they seem to work, there
Speaker 11: seems to be a sort of two things have to happen.
Speaker 10: You have some protection for.
Speaker 11: Domestic industry, and then you have to create some mechanism,
Speaker 11: sorry for those companies to compete, like help in the
Speaker 11: global marketplace, to prove that they're actually doing good things
Speaker 11: rather than just taking a government money or rather than
Speaker 11: just being protected and getting protectionism.
Speaker 10: And so in theory, what you.
Speaker 11: Would want to see is you'd want to see, Okay,
Speaker 11: we're going to give you some degree of protection, either
Speaker 11: in the form of tariffs, you're going to own the
Speaker 11: US market, or export subsidies. But to continue to get
Speaker 11: these things, you have to prove that you're doing the
Speaker 11: best highest tech production and competing at the global level.
Speaker 11: One way that you could theoretically do it, which I
Speaker 11: don't know if there's any appetite for really, but I
Speaker 11: would say invite VID and showing me to set up
Speaker 11: car factories in you know, Georgia, Miss Sippy, et cetera.
Speaker 11: And then you get twofold, you get that technology transfer
Speaker 11: where they're like, okay, this is experienced people who know
Speaker 11: how to build up a plan. And then you make
Speaker 11: contenzloas on the Fords of the GMS compete in the
Speaker 11: world's biggest auto market or maybe the second biggest auto market.
Speaker 11: Now again some of the best players in the world,
Speaker 11: force them to step up their game even further, and
Speaker 11: then you actually can combine industrial policy with capitalist competition.
Speaker 11: It's very hard to do. It's very hard to do politically.
Speaker 11: You know, shareholders still love it. But if you're actually serious.
Speaker 10: About what we want to.
Speaker 11: Have a dynamic manufacturing industry, and I don't think we
Speaker 11: want to have an un dynamic manufacturing industry because then
Speaker 11: it's we're really just talking about assembly line jobs, right, Like,
Speaker 11: if you're having an un dynamic manufacturing these are not
Speaker 11: particularly desirable jobs. And I think again like people should
Speaker 11: sort of, like, I don't know, stick up a little
Speaker 11: bit for the laptop class. And remember, we are very
Speaker 11: lucky to have a lot of employment in this country
Speaker 11: that doesn't require back breaking labor that you can do
Speaker 11: in a cool and air conditioned, comfortable office.
Speaker 10: These are not fandsakes.
Speaker 11: I feel very fortunate the many Americans to get to
Speaker 11: work in an office instead of an assembly line.
Speaker 10: But if you want to.
Speaker 11: Bring back un dynamic on competitive manufacturing, you would bring
Speaker 11: back a lot of pretty miserable jobs.
Speaker 2: Well, especially at a point in time when you know
Speaker 2: the labor movement has been decimated. So you are not
Speaker 2: talking about going back to the fifties. You are talking
Speaker 2: about going back to the nineteen hundreds when you had
Speaker 2: much less labor regulation and lower wages and no federal
Speaker 2: child labor laws and things of that nature. I mean,
Speaker 2: I'm being a little bit hyperbolic here, but the reality
Speaker 2: is you're not going back to those sort of like
Speaker 2: solid union middle class jobs that can support a whole
Speaker 2: family and buy a house because also those things like
Speaker 2: housing have become wildly more expensive. Healthcare, education, those things
Speaker 2: have become wildly more expensive. Something else I wanted to
Speaker 2: get you to weigh in on, Joe is, guys, can
Speaker 2: we put a five up on the screen? People are
Speaker 2: sharing this chart around Yesterday obviously was a big.
Speaker 4: Rebound in the market. One of the biggest gains.
Speaker 2: In the S and P History eighth best day in history.
Speaker 2: When you go look at the other large games that
Speaker 2: are on that list, and it's like, oh, nineteen thirty three,
Speaker 2: nineteen twenty nine, nineteen thirty one, two thousand and eight,
Speaker 2: and even you know, twenty twenty makes the list here
Speaker 2: as well. So you know, I guess give people a
Speaker 2: sense are we kind of out of the woods here
Speaker 2: or One of the things that we've been asking the
Speaker 2: question about as well is even when you roll back
Speaker 2: the tariffs, yeah, we've got a ninety day pause, we're
Speaker 2: going through We're going through all this again in ninety days.
Speaker 4: Like if you're a business owner.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this desis owners like, you can't how can you
Speaker 2: make any decision? I would expect that most CEOs are
Speaker 2: just going to kind of freeze in place and see
Speaker 2: what the hell's going to shake down?
Speaker 11: Why would you take an your risk at least for
Speaker 11: ninety days and look like, you know, this is the
Speaker 11: Trump White House. Why would you want the drama to
Speaker 11: end in ninety days? Why would you want to show
Speaker 11: to end in ninety days? Well, yeah, like why at
Speaker 11: least for the next three months, Why would you want
Speaker 11: to make any major capital outlayer seriously think about expanding
Speaker 11: headcounts in an environment like that. But yes, it's just
Speaker 11: completely true that many of the biggest games have been
Speaker 11: during periods of extreme market volatility and historically have proceeded
Speaker 11: more ugliness. I notice even today some of the games
Speaker 11: are holding particularly well.
Speaker 9: I know.
Speaker 11: Look, I don't like to get too worked up by
Speaker 11: short term stuff. Again, I'm not surprised that we saw
Speaker 11: that big rally yesterday, but there are reasons to think,
Speaker 11: both on the financial side and the real economic side
Speaker 11: that like the story isn't over it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's my last question for you, Joe, is as
Speaker 3: you just alluded to ninety days, what does that? I mean,
Speaker 3: that's an entire quarter of business activity. There's going to
Speaker 3: be very little investment. There will be no major capital
Speaker 3: allocation or decision. That seems to be the exact opposite
Speaker 3: of what you want for a roaring economy. So how
Speaker 3: is this all going to play out over the next
Speaker 3: three months in our capital markets and our job markets? Yeah,
Speaker 3: economic consumer confidence? What are people supposed to do?
Speaker 10: I mean I would actually I like, actually what I've.
Speaker 11: Been trying to talk to people for the last twelve hours,
Speaker 11: So what is the counter argument, because the way you
Speaker 11: like this articulating that didn't just seem so obvious to me.
Speaker 11: So I'm like, what am I missing? Like where's the
Speaker 11: growth impulse going to come from? And I mean that
Speaker 11: like in a serious way, Like I'm like asking people,
Speaker 11: like what is it? Because it sounds very bad at
Speaker 11: a minimum.
Speaker 10: And I think there's.
Speaker 11: Something else too, which is that even if you take
Speaker 11: Secretary of Vesson's comments yesterday, very seriously, Okay, now, loogal
Speaker 11: China has been exposed as a bad actor, and we're
Speaker 11: going to make these deals and we're going to like
Speaker 11: isolate that.
Speaker 10: We're going to make these deals with our friends. We're
Speaker 10: going to isolate them.
Speaker 11: This administration has spent the last several weeks insulting various friends,
Speaker 11: threatening the sovereignty of Canada, threatening Denmark via the claims
Speaker 11: that we're going to acclore Greenland, deeply insulting things that
Speaker 11: have completely shaken some of the most you know, sort
Speaker 11: of stable relationships that we've had to even setting aside
Speaker 11: the tariff shop. This ninety day negotiation is coming in
Speaker 11: an environment in which perceptions of us internationally, which.
Speaker 10: Normally I don't care a lot about let people dislike
Speaker 10: us if.
Speaker 11: We want, But now we're at the point where we're
Speaker 11: negotiating deals with their democratically, in many cases, elected leaders
Speaker 11: who have to be accountable to people who now have
Speaker 11: a much more negative impression of the United States, which
Speaker 11: is not give me a lot of hope that in
Speaker 11: these next ninety days we're going to have these big,
Speaker 11: beautiful deal.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Well, not to mention, I think Sager said this the
Speaker 2: other show, so I'm stealing from him. But China's fighting
Speaker 2: a trade war against us. We're fighting a trade war
Speaker 2: apparently against the whole planet.
Speaker 10: So ten percent terms are still in place.
Speaker 4: That's exactly right.
Speaker 2: That's exactly right, and God only knows what happens next week,
Speaker 2: the week after that, ninety days from now, et cetera.
Speaker 2: So Jill, thank you so much. Like I said, I know,
Speaker 2: super busy. Thank you for making the time. I'm really
Speaker 2: glad to have you on the show.
Speaker 3: Thanks brother, see you, everybody goes thanks side to the
Speaker 3: Odd Lots podcast.
Speaker 1: Share it, listen to it with a friend. It's a
Speaker 1: great show. See man.
Speaker 10: Thank you.
Speaker 2: All right, So let's talk a little bit about the
Speaker 2: time timeline of what unfolded yesterday. And these pretty significant
Speaker 2: questions about who might have had some inside knowledge here
Speaker 2: and been into a position to benefit from the massive
Speaker 2: market spike that came after Trump's announcement of this tariff rollback.
Speaker 4: So let's put this up on the screen.
Speaker 2: Early in the day, he posted this on true Social
Speaker 2: this is a great time to buy DJT now. Apparently,
Speaker 2: according to the reporting, at least at this point he
Speaker 2: hadn't necessarily decided what he was going to do.
Speaker 4: But I mean, who knows, right, who knows?
Speaker 2: So he posts this, okay, and then of course later
Speaker 2: on in the day he makes his announcement. Even before this,
Speaker 2: there were some questions about whether he was just like
Speaker 2: screwing with the market to benefit the people around him.
Speaker 2: And I'm not talking about fringe internet figures or whatever.
Speaker 2: Even on CNBC they were raising questions about whether or
Speaker 2: not this was part of what was going on.
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to that.
Speaker 12: Given what the government's been doing and this administration has
Speaker 12: been doing, it would not shock me, and I hate
Speaker 12: to speculate, if we were to find out that a
Speaker 12: whole bunch of people who work in Washington as our
Speaker 12: elected leaders, one way or the other, ultimately sold stocks
Speaker 12: last week or potentially worse than that short.
Speaker 1: Of the market.
Speaker 4: So Andrew ross Orkin there, that's.
Speaker 1: A big deal.
Speaker 3: We should explain that because people don't release it. Like
Speaker 3: Andrew ross Storkin is the guy who wrote Too Big
Speaker 3: to Fail. Andrew ross Storkin is the voice of like
Speaker 3: the the what between Walls. He's like the wit Wall
Speaker 3: Street whisper he wrote Too Big to Fail.
Speaker 1: He is.
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm having trouble describing him to a lay person.
Speaker 3: I guess what the Morning Joe of Financial News, like
Speaker 3: everybody hangs on his word. He's got the best reporting.
Speaker 3: He does the New York Times deal Book. You can
Speaker 3: get an interview, he can get an interview with every
Speaker 3: billionaire on the I remember talking to a guy who
Speaker 3: worked for a billionaire and he goes, I don't understand
Speaker 3: this Andrew ross Storkin guy, He's like, he goes around
Speaker 3: all of us and he gets to these people's phones.
Speaker 3: He's like, he doesn't even have a phone number. He
Speaker 3: changes his phone number every month. Well, that's the type
Speaker 3: of person we're talking about.
Speaker 2: And if he says it, there are a lot of
Speaker 2: people on Wall Street who are saying because these are
Speaker 2: people who think in terms of market movements and who.
Speaker 4: Stands to benefit.
Speaker 2: So when you have one man who is and you know,
Speaker 2: with this very small, cloistered group of advisors who are
Speaker 2: making these extraordinary seat of the pants announcements that are
Speaker 2: sending the entire market into total meltdown or reviving it
Speaker 2: with a new truth, you have to ask the question
Speaker 2: who knew and who was in a position to place
Speaker 2: the trades at the right time. And we're going to
Speaker 2: show you in a minute there. I mean, there is
Speaker 2: some evidence based on market moves to back up some
Speaker 2: of these theories. It wasn't just Andrew ross Orkin on
Speaker 2: CNBC either, though. After the Trump announcement, Commerce Secretary Howard
Speaker 2: Lutnik is on CNBC and the host comes right up
Speaker 2: to the break of asking him flat out basically, was
Speaker 2: this is Trump just manipulating markets and trying to inside
Speaker 2: or trade here.
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to how that went down.
Speaker 13: He also seems to be a great stock pundit, mister secretary.
Speaker 13: Earlier this morning, before the past he put out a
Speaker 13: message saying it's a great time to buy and here
Speaker 13: we are here, we are much higher.
Speaker 9: I know is bet on Donald Trump? Every time I
Speaker 9: know better.
Speaker 13: He also wrote dj T, which is a ticker for
Speaker 13: for his media company.
Speaker 9: No, no, no, every every text, every text he sends
Speaker 9: to me, that's his name.
Speaker 13: But that was a great time to buy the market, right, I.
Speaker 1: Mean, on can Donald look?
Speaker 9: Donald Donald Trump understands that it's America is the greatest country.
Speaker 9: All right, we are the greatest country, and we have
Speaker 9: the capacity for incredible greatness. But someone needs to take
Speaker 9: the shackles off, someone needs to let our carn our
Speaker 9: farmers sell corn to India.
Speaker 2: So she tiptoes right up to but this doesn't quite
Speaker 2: come out and say she really should have though, actually
Speaker 2: go ahead and put C five up on the screen.
Speaker 2: This is from our friend Unusual Whales, who pointed out, okay,
Speaker 2: interesting before Trump posted that now would be a great
Speaker 2: time to buy. On true social you had traders opening
Speaker 2: up these certain type of calls.
Speaker 4: These are exchange traded.
Speaker 2: Funds that track either the Nasdaq or the S and
Speaker 2: P five hundred. So, just to put this in layman's terms,
Speaker 2: this means you see the spike, you had a huge
Speaker 2: jump in somebody who was betting that these markets were
Speaker 2: going to go up significantly, and on one of these
Speaker 2: in particular, they were betting it was like a just
Speaker 2: a day was the timeframe. So they're basically saying, like,
Speaker 2: I think this market is going to jump up like
Speaker 2: crazy today, and these are highly leveraged, So this is
Speaker 2: a very very risky bet, especially to make in the
Speaker 2: midst of a massive market meltdown.
Speaker 1: You can go to actual zero.
Speaker 3: It's not like buying the S and P five hundred
Speaker 3: exactly exactly.
Speaker 2: So right before the news he says, someone opened up
Speaker 2: five hundred and nine of these calls expiring today, and
Speaker 2: those calls are up twenty one hundred percent in a
Speaker 2: single hour. So if you happened to be in on
Speaker 2: what was gonna unfold during the day, this would be
Speaker 2: exactly the type of market move.
Speaker 1: That you would mis Yes.
Speaker 3: And for example, billionaire Charles Schwab was literally in the
Speaker 3: Oval office around the time that this announcement was made.
Speaker 3: Here's Trump actually bragging about it on camera while he's
Speaker 3: in the Oval office, pointing to Charles Schwab and saying,
Speaker 3: this guy made two point five billion today.
Speaker 1: Take a listen, it's not just.
Speaker 10: Financial wow.
Speaker 3: Just say look, I mean, as Joe said, was there
Speaker 3: really a concerted effort.
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 3: Listen, if you're Charles you hear this going on and
Speaker 3: you don't get on the phone, you'll call your broker.
Speaker 3: You're an idiot, right, those like why wouldn't you do it?
Speaker 3: Or elected officials let's say Trump, read in John Thune
Speaker 3: or any of these other folks. We don't know if
Speaker 3: any of that is true, or Speaker Mike Johnson. We
Speaker 3: know from unusual wills and others. These people are trading
Speaker 3: all the time. And if any of this sounds ridiculous,
Speaker 3: I mean, let's not point to the fact that during
Speaker 3: the market crash, remember Senator Richard Burr.
Speaker 1: Was under federal investigation.
Speaker 3: They seized his cell phone for insider trading allegations and
Speaker 3: even the appearance of corruption.
Speaker 1: Don't forget.
Speaker 3: Also, we will not even get the disclosures from members
Speaker 3: of Congress for months now before we even know if
Speaker 3: they were able to trade on this information, let alone
Speaker 3: White House officials. The way that they're reporting all works,
Speaker 3: it's going to take forever for this to be able
Speaker 3: to come out.
Speaker 1: So there is zero transparency.
Speaker 4: If they even bother to complain.
Speaker 3: Yeah, right, even if they do, and actually a lot don't,
Speaker 3: there's a lot of these exclusions and things that you
Speaker 3: can get. Even the form is ridiculous. It's like, I'm
Speaker 3: worth between twelve and fifty million. You're like, okay, great,
Speaker 3: thank you for the disclosure there, Yes, right, exactly, Yeah,
Speaker 3: I don't know anything about this, but my point just
Speaker 3: broadly is that if you look at the data, it
Speaker 3: is obvious something happened.
Speaker 14: Here.
Speaker 1: We have, for example C seven.
Speaker 3: Please you can see exactly similar spike in the graph
Speaker 3: that unusual Whales found. This is increase of over ten
Speaker 3: percent on call to options ten minutes before the announcement.
Speaker 3: Somebody was making a huge bet right before that.
Speaker 2: This all this was ten minutes before Trump says guess
Speaker 2: what guys were switching switching it up ten percent tariffs
Speaker 2: ninety day pause, ten minutes before that person. They just
Speaker 2: must be a market genius.
Speaker 3: Acre maybe market look theoretically possible, Like they were like, oh,
Speaker 3: I really think Trump is going to make a big
Speaker 3: move today, and so middle of the day right around
Speaker 3: and I'm like, yeah, I don't know, No, no, nobody's
Speaker 3: got really that. I mean, remember that whole October seventh
Speaker 3: insight that we had and we covered here on the show.
Speaker 1: To this day.
Speaker 3: Nobody really knows who shorted the market there immediately before
Speaker 3: what we like, shorted on October sixth and got miraculously lucky.
Speaker 3: There are all these apocryphal tales about nine to eleven
Speaker 3: as well. And look, we can just simply add this
Speaker 3: one to the list. The data is clear somebody did
Speaker 3: make it, So SEC and IRS will know exactly who
Speaker 3: this person is.
Speaker 1: It would be nice. Yeah, at the very least, just
Speaker 1: do an investigation.
Speaker 4: Sir, Trump's SEC will be all over it.
Speaker 3: Well, this is the problem with the data is that
Speaker 3: this stuff, I mean dramatically undermines confidence in the overall system,
Speaker 3: as it should because everybody's like, uh, I'm sitting at home,
Speaker 3: like let's say you're one of the Joe just stood
Speaker 3: up for the stockholder, and you're just like average Joe,
Speaker 3: like Joe, and you're at home and you're watching CNBC
Speaker 3: and you're just sitting there panicking or thinking. And I
Speaker 3: read a horrible article in the Wall Street Journal, And
Speaker 3: this is a good example of how stock crashes can
Speaker 3: be very impactful. Of people who have mandatory withdrawals for
Speaker 3: their children's five twenty nine plans. These are people who
Speaker 3: are responsibly saved and whose kid must go to college
Speaker 3: in the fall, and they're like, yeah, now it's down
Speaker 3: twenty percent and I may need to take out a
Speaker 3: long that's horrible, you know. And yes, they've been investing
Speaker 3: over an eighteen year period. They've definitely made a killing
Speaker 3: on the first half, But what about the last couple
Speaker 3: of years that they put their money in, or maybe
Speaker 3: the money in that they just put in. Now they've
Speaker 3: actually taken a net loss, you know, on that. That
Speaker 3: is exactly the type of thing behavior savings and all
Speaker 3: that otherwise where there are real consequences, not to even
Speaker 3: mention all the retirees who have mandatory withdrawals from their
Speaker 3: four to one k's right now.
Speaker 4: That's right. Well, think about it this way.
Speaker 2: So yesterday was the largest gain I believe in history
Speaker 2: for billionaires, just like astronomical amounts of money made.
Speaker 3: You mean from law, I guess technically, yeah, we're still
Speaker 3: down to it time, okay.
Speaker 2: Yeah, But if you were in a position to know
Speaker 2: that this news was coming out and you were in
Speaker 2: a position to make those moves, you if you're like
Speaker 2: you know, a union with a pension fund that you're running,
Speaker 2: you weren't on the inside, and you're talking about that
Speaker 2: is to benefit ordinary working class people, so you are
Speaker 2: still down right some people were in a position to
Speaker 2: make a killing. Apparently Charles schwas made billions of dollars yesterday.
Speaker 2: That is a direct upward transfer of wealth from retail,
Speaker 2: from pensions, from you know, all of these groups that
Speaker 2: you know are just sort of like normal regular people.
Speaker 14: What is this.
Speaker 2: Sixty percent of Americans have some exposure to the stock mortgage.
Speaker 2: So that's why these stories really Matt. I mean, when
Speaker 2: we think about we covered so much of the insider
Speaker 2: trading allegations with Congress Nancy Pelosi and all of these people,
Speaker 2: and she would be in a position to benefit from
Speaker 2: the knowledge that she has of what Congress is up
Speaker 2: to and what particular companies stand to benefit. That is
Speaker 2: much more indirect, frankly than I mean vastly more indirect
Speaker 2: than Trump literally being able to truth out a total
Speaker 2: new global trading regime. And lord knows, these people have
Speaker 2: no scruples. I mean, Trump did a pump and dump
Speaker 2: with his shitcoin and his wife's shitcoin. Like they're not
Speaker 2: ethical people. They are happy to cash in to their benefit.
Speaker 2: He certainly is, when you know he has knowledge that
Speaker 2: can benefit him, so frankly, I'd be shocked.
Speaker 4: The big question is whether that's the whole purpose of
Speaker 4: what they're up to here.
Speaker 2: And you know, some people are looking at this and
Speaker 2: are like, I can't really divine any other purpose that
Speaker 2: makes any sense here.
Speaker 4: So it is possible that the whole point.
Speaker 2: Is just a sort of like global economic wide pump
Speaker 2: and dump. And if that is the goal, well so
Speaker 2: far they've been phenomenally successful for that. There is one
Speaker 2: person that does not seem to have been on the
Speaker 2: inside in terms of knowing what was going on, and
Speaker 2: that's the US Trade Representative Jameson Greer, who also that's
Speaker 2: the person who Emily had floated might have been mistaken
Speaker 2: for Jeffrey.
Speaker 4: Goldberg, but I think it was. I think it might.
Speaker 4: I saw that it might have been someone different.
Speaker 2: But in any case, maybe he was supposed to be
Speaker 2: on the signal chat letting everybody know, and instead Jeffrey
Speaker 2: Goldberg gotta instead sorry, was testifying before Congress when and
Speaker 2: learned in real time what was going on with this,
Speaker 2: and the Democratic member who was questioning him when he
Speaker 2: finds out, he also immediately goes to the place of
Speaker 2: like what the hell are you people doing? How do
Speaker 2: you you're in the US Trade rep How do you
Speaker 2: not know what's going on and who does and what
Speaker 2: billionaire are standing to benefit here?
Speaker 4: Let's take a.
Speaker 2: Listen to how that went, Dad, This is C four guys,
Speaker 2: let's go ahead and play that.
Speaker 15: Are you aware that the terrors have been paused?
Speaker 14: I am yes.
Speaker 15: When were you made aware of that?
Speaker 9: Well?
Speaker 14: I understood the decision was made a few minutes ago.
Speaker 16: Sitting here under discussion, sitting here under discussion.
Speaker 15: So did you know that this was under discussion?
Speaker 16: And why did you not include that as part of
Speaker 16: your opening remarks?
Speaker 14: So typically, what I don't do is divulge the contents
Speaker 14: of my discussions.
Speaker 15: What are the details of the pause?
Speaker 14: Well, my understanding is that because so many countries have
Speaker 14: decided not to retaliate, we're going to have about ninety
Speaker 14: days No.
Speaker 16: Excuse me, you we are the China increase their tariffs
Speaker 16: on the United States.
Speaker 15: Trump blinked.
Speaker 14: What's the blink? Sir?
Speaker 15: What do you know about this pause? What are the
Speaker 15: details of it?
Speaker 14: Well, the details, as I understand it, is that China
Speaker 14: continues to retaliate. Other countries didn't retaliate. The President two
Speaker 14: or three days ago said we wanted to negotiate with
Speaker 14: those countries that ask for that, ask for meetings. That's
Speaker 14: what we're doing.
Speaker 16: What are the wed How long is the pause? How
Speaker 16: many days? How many weeks?
Speaker 14: I understand it's ninety days. I haven't spoken to the
Speaker 14: present since I.
Speaker 16: So the Trade Representative hasn't spoken to the President of
Speaker 16: the United States about a global reordering of trade?
Speaker 14: Yes, I have, and yet hearing with you so.
Speaker 15: But yet he announced it on a tweet. WTF who's
Speaker 15: in charge?
Speaker 14: The President of United States is in charge?
Speaker 16: And what do you know about those details?
Speaker 4: I don't know what I do.
Speaker 3: You know why that's nuts is because he Jamison Greer.
Speaker 3: Not only is he the US Trade Representative, that's a
Speaker 3: cabinet level official who's technically supposed to be in charge
Speaker 3: of a lot of this stuff. But even more, you know,
Speaker 3: when you implement the tariffs, he's the guy who writes
Speaker 3: all the stuff. He did the formula, you know, all
Speaker 3: the justification of the formula.
Speaker 1: It was him. That's his office. That's what their job
Speaker 1: is supposed to be.
Speaker 3: They're supposed to work with customs and border patrol and
Speaker 3: all of these other agencies to actually implement these tariffs.
Speaker 3: So it's pretty insane that he not only was not
Speaker 3: in the room, he wasn't even consulted, and he learned
Speaker 3: about it by a truth law. He's testifying live before
Speaker 3: the United States Congress. And the thing is, if you
Speaker 3: look at his opening statement, the entire opening statement is
Speaker 3: a justification of the terriff for shame. And then he
Speaker 3: has to be like, actually, it's very smart. What are
Speaker 3: we doing?
Speaker 4: Insane and insanity, it's part of the deal.