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Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 2: the future of this show.

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Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 3: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

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Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 2: you'll access to our full shows, unedited, ad free, and

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Speaker 2: all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

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Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday. Have an amazing

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Speaker 3: show for everybody today. What do we have, Crystal?

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Speaker 4: Indeed we do.

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Speaker 2: It looks like the cultural revolution is off that intellectuals

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Speaker 2: are going to get at least a reprieve from being

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Speaker 2: sent to the iPhone factory to screw in all of

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Speaker 2: the little little screw for ninety days temporarily. Anyway, of course,

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Speaker 2: we're going to cover a lot about the tariffs. Show

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Speaker 2: is not one hundred percent tariffs, but it's about ninety

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Speaker 2: percent tariffs. I would say we've got Joe Wisenthal coming

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Speaker 2: in to break down what Trump is doing, what it means,

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Speaker 2: market reaction, all of that good stuff. We've got some

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Speaker 2: pretty serious and I think pretty credible allegations of insider trading.

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Speaker 2: So we will break down for you the timeline and

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Speaker 2: the evidence and you can evaluate for yourself. We got

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Speaker 2: a bunch of you know, Republicans and administration officials.

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Speaker 4: What they were saying.

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Speaker 2: Before the pause or the roll back, what they're saying now.

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Speaker 4: It's pretty extraordinary.

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Speaker 2: The President himself being much more honest about the reason

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Speaker 2: that he decided to change course. Basically got freaked out

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Speaker 2: by the bond market, so he joined the Panicans. I

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Speaker 2: guess I'm really excited for this. We have Ryan Peterson,

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Speaker 2: he's the CEO of Flexport, coming on to talk about

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Speaker 2: also this terraf regime, what is going to mean. But

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Speaker 2: also more importantly, there's another change that's coming down the

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Speaker 2: pike that we briefly mentioned the other day that could

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Speaker 2: be incredibly significant and quite devastating to supply chains and

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Speaker 2: to global shipping. So really want to hear from him

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Speaker 2: on that. And then we've got a couple of updates

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Speaker 2: with regard to both immigration policy, social media accounts are

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Speaker 2: now going to be filtered for any sort of quote

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Speaker 2: unquote anti semitism before people are given student visas or

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Speaker 2: green card status, things like that. And also we have

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Speaker 2: a quite significant couple of court updates with regard to

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Speaker 2: the Alien Enemies Acts that wanted to follow up on

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Speaker 2: that since we had that segment with Peaceco breaking down

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Speaker 2: the Supreme Court.

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Speaker 4: Ruling the other day.

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Speaker 2: So to all of you guys who have been helping

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Speaker 2: us out this week amidst a lot of economic turmoil,

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Speaker 2: we have really really appreciated. We've seen a big spike

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Speaker 2: this week just because of interest in tariffs on what's

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Speaker 2: going on. So if you can become a premium member,

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Speaker 2: of course, we really appreciate it. If you can't do that,

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Speaker 2: totally get it. If you can like, if you can subscribe,

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Speaker 2: if you can share the videos, that helps us tremendously.

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Speaker 1: Exactly right Breakingpoints dot com.

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Speaker 3: And for the podcast listeners, we don't forget about you either.

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Speaker 3: As we said, the best thing you can do leave

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Speaker 3: a five star review or take the episode literally, just

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Speaker 3: share it with a friend. It's tremendously impactful. So let's

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Speaker 3: you go ahead and start with the tariffs, as you

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Speaker 3: said the White House. I'm sure some of you have

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Speaker 3: heard at the point a pause is on. Let's go

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Speaker 3: and put it up there on the screen. Quote based

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Speaker 3: on the lack of respect China has shown to the

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Speaker 3: world market, I am hereby raising the tariff charged to

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Speaker 3: China by the United States of America to one hundred

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Speaker 3: and twenty five percent effective immediately. That's a retaliation for

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Speaker 3: their eighty four percent tariff that was put into place.

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Speaker 3: There's still some big questions as to that one hundred

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Speaker 3: and twenty five percent tariff. Does it in addition to

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Speaker 3: the twenty percent tariff that we're there meaning would be

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Speaker 3: what is that one hundred and fifty five percent tariff?

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Speaker 1: Seems to be possible, he says, But this is the

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Speaker 1: most important point.

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Speaker 3: I have authorized a ninety day pause and substantially lowered

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Speaker 3: reciprocal tariff during this period of ten percent effective immediately,

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Speaker 3: he says, as a result of more than seventy five

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Speaker 3: countries that have called representatives of the United States to

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Speaker 3: express interest in negotiations. So immediately afterwards, there were a

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Speaker 3: lot of questions here did Trump cave? Did he Was

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Speaker 3: this his strategy all along? Was he a madman. Was

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Speaker 3: he bluffing? Did he have to convince people he was crazy?

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Speaker 3: Was it the art the deal?

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Speaker 5: Well?

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Speaker 1: Trump actually answered that for himself.

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Speaker 3: He came out immediately in front steps of the White

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Speaker 3: House and he's like, yeah, I did it because people

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Speaker 3: were getting afraid.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a lesson.

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Speaker 6: Why you decided to put a ninety day pause.

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Speaker 7: Well, I thought that people were jumping a little bit

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Speaker 7: out of line. They were getting yippie, you know, they

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Speaker 7: were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid,

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Speaker 7: unlike these champions. Because we have a big job to do.

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Speaker 7: No other president would have done what I did. No

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Speaker 7: other president I know, the presidents, they wouldn't have done it.

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Speaker 7: And it had to be done. What was happening to

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Speaker 7: us on trade, not only with you know, if you

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Speaker 7: look at it, not only with China, but China is

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Speaker 7: by far the biggest abuser in history and others also.

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Speaker 7: But somebody had to do it. They had to stop

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Speaker 7: because it was not sustainable. Last year, China made one

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Speaker 7: trillion dollars off trade with the United States.

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Speaker 6: It's not right. And now I've reversed it. It's for a.

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Speaker 7: Short period of time, but we made two billion dollars.

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Speaker 7: We're making now two billion dollars a day, and somebody

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Speaker 7: had to do it. Roger actually said that Josh Schwab

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Speaker 7: was here a little while ago, one of the great

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Speaker 7: financial people, and he said he's been waiting for forty

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Speaker 7: years for somebody to do what I did over the

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Speaker 7: last month. Nothing's over yet, but we have a tremendous

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Speaker 7: amount of spirit from other countries, including China.

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Speaker 6: China wants to make a deal. They just don't know

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Speaker 6: how quite to go about it.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 6: It's one of those things that are not quite proud people.

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Speaker 3: People are getting a little bit eppy. That's what the

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Speaker 3: president says. Yet, if you listen to his advisors, this

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Speaker 3: was the plan all along. Here's the Commerce Secretary, Howard

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Speaker 3: luck Nick. Nobody backed off. Absolutely, this was all part

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Speaker 3: of the plan.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 8: So Miss Secretary tonight, you can definitively say this was

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Speaker 8: not a walk back. This was not something that the

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Speaker 8: bond markets were cratering and you were worried about it.

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Speaker 8: You know that this is part of your plan. There's

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Speaker 8: a lot of folks saying and there were just mixed

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Speaker 8: messages that really left the markets jitterary.

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Speaker 9: Donald Trump is the best negotiator that there is. He

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Speaker 9: understands how to do these things, and he gave these

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Speaker 9: were crystal clear instructions. No negotiating till two days ago.

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Speaker 9: He would be willing to negotiate, but broadly, and then

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Speaker 9: yesterday was I'll do bespoke, and bespoke that's what launched it.

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Speaker 9: I mean, every country wanted to come and talk to

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Speaker 9: us and what are we supposed to do? So Scott

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Speaker 9: and I went in and talked to him about what

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Speaker 9: do we do and how do we do it? And

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Speaker 9: I think this is where we are. So the President

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Speaker 9: made his decision. He truthed it out with Scott and

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Speaker 9: I in the room, just the three of us together,

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Speaker 9: and this is where we are. We just Scott vested,

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Speaker 9: myself and Ambassador Jameson Greer, who's our USTR, and just

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Speaker 9: have so much work to do with so many different countries.

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Speaker 9: But we've got to make fair deals for America. And

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Speaker 9: Donald Trump said, for the big countries, the lead negotiator

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Speaker 9: of those of those transactions is going to be Donald Trump.

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Speaker 9: He wants to do it, he wants to drive it.

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Speaker 9: And what could be more fun for Scott and I it.

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Speaker 4: Was not a background what could be more fun Sager.

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Speaker 3: Marcus Gonning itpie, And so Trump says, we're doing it

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Speaker 3: because people got afraid.

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Speaker 1: Howard Ludning all part of the plan. You idiots never

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Speaker 1: read art of the deal.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, there's lot a single scrap of evidence to support that.

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Speaker 3: And in reality, all of the talk from behind the

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Speaker 3: scenes was not only that he was not going to negotiate,

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Speaker 3: he didn't care about the markets. And then he comes

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Speaker 3: out and he just says it. He actually undermines all

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Speaker 3: of his big defenders. Yeah, that are in the media.

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Speaker 3: So before we get to the bond market thing, you

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Speaker 3: have anything you want to say, Well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, a couple of just pieces of reporting to add

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Speaker 2: to the context. There are apparently two big things. So

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Speaker 2: first of all, I don't know if you guys saw

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Speaker 2: this floating around, this interview that Jamie Diamond did with

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Speaker 2: Marie Barbiromo reporting, is that Trump watched that where he

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Speaker 2: said I think that we are going to be in

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Speaker 2: a recession because of these moves. Many other people had

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Speaker 2: already said this, but and it was like increasingly glaringly obvious.

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Speaker 2: And by the way, odds are still pretty decent that

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Speaker 2: we're going to end up in a recession. But we'll

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Speaker 2: put that aside and talk to Joe Wisenthal a little

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Speaker 2: bit more about that. But apparently that, for whatever reason,

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Speaker 2: had an impact on him. And then the real thing

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Speaker 2: was the bond markets and the Typically when you have

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Speaker 2: the stock market fall, you have a lot of people

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Speaker 2: fleeing and buying up treasury bonds because it's a flight

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Speaker 2: to safety, that's what they call it. The very opposite

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Speaker 2: thing was happening here. That freaked everybody out because it's

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Speaker 2: an indication that, first of all, things are so bad,

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Speaker 2: everyone's just having to liquidate everything to make margin calls

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Speaker 2: or keep their head above water. It's what an indication

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Speaker 2: of that. It's also an indication guess what, guys, maybe

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Speaker 2: the US isn't going to be the safe harbor anymore.

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Speaker 2: So when you have those factors, and then also think

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Speaker 2: about Trump as a real estate guy who is known

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Speaker 2: to use astronomical levels of debt, Well, guess what, but

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Speaker 2: your bank loans, the interest rate that you get on

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Speaker 2: that is going to be related to the treasury rate.

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Speaker 2: So he had a very long time, deep understanding of

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Speaker 2: how bad this would be for you know, real estate

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Speaker 2: developers or other businesses that want to borrow money from

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Speaker 2: the bank. Not to mention one of the eight d

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Speaker 2: chess theories of what was going on here is they're

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Speaker 2: crashing the economy in order to get the interest rates down.

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Speaker 2: The exact opposite thing is happening.

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Speaker 4: So if you're going to.

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Speaker 2: Have to roll this debt that the US has, there's

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Speaker 2: this big debt wall coming up, you're going to be

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Speaker 2: paying an even higher price because of these moves that

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Speaker 2: you're making. So in the end, he did join the

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Speaker 2: Panicans and was like, holy shit, this could be worse.

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Speaker 2: And one of the things that was reported, I can't

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Speaker 2: remember which outlet reported this, but he was like, you know,

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Speaker 2: I'm okay with a recession, but I was getting worried

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Speaker 2: that we might be in an actual depression, and so

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Speaker 2: he walks back from the edge. Now, to be clear,

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Speaker 2: there's still a very hefty terror.

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Speaker 4: Regime in place.

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Speaker 2: I mean, China's our number one trading partner, know, so

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Speaker 2: many of our consumer goods come from China. There is

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Speaker 2: an insanely high tariff one hundred and twenty five or

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Speaker 2: whatever the hell it is, forty percent one hundred and

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Speaker 2: forty percent on goods coming in from China. That alone

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Speaker 2: is insanely impactful. Then you still have ten percent tariffs

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Speaker 2: across the board. You know, if this is what he

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Speaker 2: had originally announced going out to the Rose Garden in

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Speaker 2: that speech, there would have been a massive market reaction

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Speaker 2: because it's actually worse than what was expected going into

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Speaker 2: that speech. But there's a relief because number one, just

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Speaker 2: you know, it's not as bad as it was. And

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Speaker 2: number two, because it showed that Trump could be moved

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Speaker 2: and wasn't just a total madman going for the next

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Speaker 2: great depress.

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Speaker 1: Yes, that's right.

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Speaker 3: That's an important point, and it actually gets to kind

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Speaker 3: of a market veto. Let's get into this for the

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Speaker 3: bond market before we bring in.

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Speaker 1: Joe Wisenthal.

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Speaker 3: Charles Gasprino over at Fox News really broke down the

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Speaker 3: scare in the bond market and why it ultimately forced

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Speaker 3: the White House is hand.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 5: I want to tell you right now that Donald Trump

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Speaker 5: out smarted the world. Trust me, I'm an American. I

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Speaker 5: support my president, but that's not really what happened here

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Speaker 5: from what I understand, and I know I'll get pushed back,

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Speaker 5: but here's what it is. First, off, we should point

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Speaker 5: out that one of the good things about this is

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Speaker 5: that Scott besson is finally in the White House. He's

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Speaker 5: finally leading this. I mean, up until a couple of

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Speaker 5: days ago, it was Lutnik, it was Peter Navarro, the

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Speaker 5: Commerce Secretary, the Trade Advisor, very much hawks now with

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Speaker 5: Scott Bessont, who believes in cutting deals as opposed to

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Speaker 5: not just putting these tariffs out there. And let's be

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Speaker 5: amercantilistic economy.

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Speaker 1: That's number one.

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Speaker 5: But number two, let's recall what happened overnight and from

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Speaker 5: what I understand, and I'm getting this from people that

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Speaker 5: are talking to the White House, what happened in the

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Speaker 5: bond market overnight, the spike in yields on the thirty

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Speaker 5: year and the ten year bond, which showed that people

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Speaker 5: were dumping our bonds. And who are those people dumping

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Speaker 5: our bonds? Japan, the biggest holder of bonds, was selling bonds.

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Speaker 5: That's what I'm getting from some very big money managers.

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Speaker 5: China maybe to some extent, but it was largely Japan

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Speaker 5: and others. If you have a mass sale of bonds,

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Speaker 5: that means people are losing confidence in the US economy.

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Speaker 5: On the ability to do deals with us, and from

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Speaker 5: what I understand, this is what forced the hand of

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Speaker 5: this ninety day reprieve. Now is it a good thing?

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Speaker 5: You know, are people coming to the table. Yeah, But

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Speaker 5: if you know, if you read between the lines or not,

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Speaker 5: even what Scott Besson said, we have no deals, right,

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Speaker 5: there's nobody that is really there saying this is what

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Speaker 5: we're going to do. And they paused it anyway. So

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Speaker 5: my thing that said, well, I'll give you this, there

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Speaker 5: is some art of the deal here. And by the way,

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Speaker 5: brilliant move by putting China in the corner. But that's

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Speaker 5: a whole separate thing because remember that's a very difficult negotiation.

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Speaker 5: Everybody else is a lot easier. They really want to

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Speaker 5: they do want to deal with us, whether they want

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Speaker 5: to be, you know, forced into really bad trade deals

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Speaker 5: on their end as a whole other negotiating story. But

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Speaker 5: make no mistake about it, you cannot divorce this decision

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Speaker 5: right here from what happened last night, which was you know,

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Speaker 5: I people focus on the stock market all the time.

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Speaker 5: It's the bond market and the sort of lending markets

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Speaker 5: that's the plumbing of the economy, and those markets were

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Speaker 5: imploding last night, and that's why we have a ninety

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Speaker 5: day freeze. Let's see if those markets improve. If someone

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Speaker 5: told me we had a decent treasury auction today, but

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Speaker 5: if you can't sell your treasures, guys, and people are

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Speaker 5: unloading your treasures, like Japan, which is I believe the

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Speaker 5: largest foreign holder after China.

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Speaker 3: So as you guys can see there from Charles Gasprino's reporting,

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Speaker 3: the bond market is really what forced Donald Trump's hand.

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Speaker 3: Spooks to the United States Treasure sector who coming into this

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Speaker 3: had said one of the stated goals was to make

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Speaker 3: sure that the yield on these bonds was going to

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Speaker 3: go lower. That would have, of course, increase in the

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Speaker 3: yield would have made mortgages more expensive, it would have

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Speaker 3: made the debt servicing more expense. And it's one of

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Speaker 3: those where the massive size of that and the overall

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Speaker 3: financial impact was a major recessionary indicator. So very very

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Speaker 3: clear what went on here, h Donald Trump. This is

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Speaker 3: not ourt of the deal. This was straight up he

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Speaker 3: got panicked because of the bod market. And now we'll see,

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Speaker 3: well he admits it himself, yeah he so, I mean,

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Speaker 3: I'm not saying it.

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Speaker 2: And it was funny because Gasper that was on Fox

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Speaker 2: Fox News or Fox Business was Fox News? Yeah, Fox News,

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Speaker 2: and you know it's in the midst of all this

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Speaker 2: like North Korea style propaganda about oh art of the

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Speaker 2: deal and this was the planel along whenever He's like, well,

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Speaker 2: not really based on reporting and now based on the

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Speaker 2: president z own words. So let's go and get to

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Speaker 2: Joe Wisenthal Bloomberg to break all of us down and

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Speaker 2: where we are and what might happen next.

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Speaker 3: Very excited now to be joined by Joe Wisenthal of

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Speaker 3: the Odd Lots podcast over at Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: He's an all star.

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Speaker 3: Him and his co host Tracy are incredible and we

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Speaker 3: highly recommend you all listen to them. Joe has been

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Speaker 3: making their rounds everywhere explaining to the people about what

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Speaker 3: the hell is going on, and we decided that we

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Speaker 3: had to have him on here to tell us specifically

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Speaker 3: about this whole bond market thing, which we're doing our

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Speaker 3: best to break down. Joe, let's take a listen to

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Speaker 3: what Donald Trump had to say about the bond market.

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Speaker 1: Get your reaction and also in explanations. So let's take

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Speaker 1: a listenin the.

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Speaker 10: Phone markets that persuaded you to reverse.

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Speaker 6: I was watching the bond market. That bond market is

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Speaker 6: very tricky. I was watching it. But if you look at.

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Speaker 7: It now, it's beautiful.

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Speaker 6: The bond market right now is beautiful.

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Speaker 7: But yeah, I saw last night where people were getting

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Speaker 7: a little queasy. I think everything had well. The big

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Speaker 7: move wasn't what I did today. The big move was

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Speaker 7: what I did on Liberation Day. We had Liberation Day

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Speaker 7: in America. Were liberated from all of the horrible deals that.

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Speaker 6: Were made, all of the horrible trade deals that were made.

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Speaker 7: And I was helped by people just like this senator,

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Speaker 7: congressman and friends, right, and we had great help in

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Speaker 7: the Senate. Of course, Republican senators have been amazing. They

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Speaker 7: still a doll and likewise in the House.

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Speaker 3: So Joe Trump all but meeting there that the bond

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Speaker 3: markets are really what forced his hand.

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Speaker 1: Can you explain specifically.

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Speaker 3: About why that was so impactful for his decision making.

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Speaker 11: Yeah, there's a lot of like I would say, sort

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Speaker 11: of exoticization of the bond market, particularly in media, and

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Speaker 11: people like to have these panises China's jumping bonds you response,

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Speaker 11: or Japan dumping bonds and response. It's not that complicated

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Speaker 11: really what was going on Tuesday night was extreme panic.

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Speaker 11: And in a state of extreme panic, what do you

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Speaker 11: do you think about. I got to pay my mortgage

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Speaker 11: at the end of the month, I got to pay

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Speaker 11: my cell phone bill, I have to pay my Bloomberg subscription,

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Speaker 11: and all of that stuff is denominated in dollars.

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Speaker 10: Do you sell anything that's not dollars.

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Speaker 11: You start selling stocks, you start selling gold, you start

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Speaker 11: selling bonds, even which are you know, essentially the safest

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Speaker 11: asset in the world, because you want are just those

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Speaker 11: liquid dollars to pay your bills. It doesn't help that

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Speaker 11: one of the stated goals of this administration outside and

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Speaker 11: everything else, was to lower yields, and so this was

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Speaker 11: the exact opposite going on. And I think if there's

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Speaker 11: probably one market that really resonates with Trump more than

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Speaker 11: the stock market, it's the bottom market. Because when your

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Speaker 11: real estate your whole, you know, you sort of like

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Speaker 11: live and die on your cost, to borrow at your

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Speaker 11: cost and capital, it became an untenable situation when you

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Speaker 11: saw those dynamic Maybe you can tolerate a hits of

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Speaker 11: the stock market, and which I'm actually kind of skeptical

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Speaker 11: that the people have the public would have put up

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Speaker 11: with very much longer, but it truly becomes untenable when

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Speaker 11: people start having to dump what is perceived as like

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Speaker 11: the second safest asset in the world. Where the safest

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Speaker 11: asset in the world, which is just over nine dollars.

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Speaker 2: Got it, guys, can you put a six up on

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Speaker 2: the screen. I thought this was interesting chart showing that

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Speaker 2: now the midst of tariffs is now actually more tilted

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Speaker 2: towards consumer goods, which is just an overall reminder that

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Speaker 2: everyone's sort of acting like, okay, well that's over, but

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Speaker 2: there's still actually a very steep and almost unprecedented level

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Speaker 2: of tariffs that are hitting countries around the world, and

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Speaker 2: obviously the massive tariff on China in.

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Speaker 4: And of itself is a huge deal.

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Speaker 2: So can you help people understand what the reality is

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Speaker 2: now and what sort of potential impact it can have

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Speaker 2: on the real economy, and you know, your assessment of

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Speaker 2: what the markets have done and where they might be added.

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Speaker 11: Yeah, look, I'm surprised that we had this huge stock

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Speaker 11: market rally yesterday after he pulled back from the brink

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Speaker 11: a little bit, because, as I mentioned again Tuesday night, panic, Look,

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Speaker 11: the reality is if you just go from now versus

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Speaker 11: sort of like pre Rose Garden speech, and you don't

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Speaker 11: pay attention to anything that happened. In the meantime, you

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Speaker 11: have stock futures that are significantly lower.

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Speaker 10: So we've made a hit to the valuation of corporate America.

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Speaker 10: Rates are higher.

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Speaker 11: Than they were, and the US economy or you know,

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Speaker 11: our imports are significantly more tariff than they were. Even

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Speaker 11: if you accept this theory that well, you know what

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Speaker 11: this is about this big strategy because we're going to isolate,

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Speaker 11: We're going to like box out China, We're going to.

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Speaker 10: Make all these deals with all these countries that.

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Speaker 11: Have lined up to avoid any aggressive reciprocal tariff. Even there,

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Speaker 11: we've actually started to drive a wedge between US and

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Speaker 11: all of those countries that we want to make a

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Speaker 11: deal within, including US, including our continental partners, which are

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Speaker 11: more higher tariff. So the fact that is the matter

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Speaker 11: that consumer prices will be hired. Now, how this speech

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Speaker 11: through to like CPI like actual inflation. I don't think

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Speaker 11: it's like totally obvious because if business is slowing, then

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Speaker 11: incomes are going to be Hiring is going to be slowing,

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Speaker 11: investment's going to be slowing. Maybe you don't actually get insallation,

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Speaker 11: but you certainly get less affordability of what people were

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Speaker 11: able to buy several weeks ago.

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Speaker 10: I think that's the real key thing. The cost of.

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Speaker 11: Doing business in the United States is now materially higher

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Speaker 11: than it was a week.

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Speaker 3: One of the things, Joe, that you were constantly talking

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Speaker 3: about over the last week is there are there's a

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Speaker 3: lot of cope coming from MAGA influencers in the White House,

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Speaker 3: but the stock market is not the real economy.

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Speaker 1: It has no connection.

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Speaker 3: And I think you have such a good way of

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Speaker 3: articulating why that's just empirically not correct. And I want

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Speaker 3: people to also to understand you're not some Wall Street

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Speaker 3: explainer somebody.

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Speaker 10: Yeah, you know, nobody more than you.

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Speaker 3: In many respects, but as somebody's been covering this now,

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Speaker 3: yeah what twenty years, just explain that to people why

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Speaker 3: that's incorrect.

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Speaker 11: I've always hated this term, that it's just a cliche

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Speaker 11: that probably some columnists once came, Oh, the stock market

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Speaker 11: is not the economy. The stock market matters in the

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Speaker 11: economy in various ways, and I'll just sort of run

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Speaker 11: through them. A lot of people own stocks, at least

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00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:44,080
Speaker 11: more than half of the US is some sort of explosure.

440
00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 11: So it's not just this niche rich thing to the

441
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 11: extent that it is skewed. And it is true that

442
00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 11: the ownership of stocks is highly distributed to the ridge.

443
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:54,320
Speaker 10: It's also true that consumption.

444
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,520
Speaker 11: Is highly skewed, so you're gonna like hit parts of

445
00:20:56,520 --> 00:21:00,760
Speaker 11: the economy that are important drivers of consumption and ongoing activity.

446
00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:03,120
Speaker 11: But there is more than that, because also, like business

447
00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 11: investments is in part going to be determined by the

448
00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:09,000
Speaker 11: cost and capital and the stock market. And when companies

449
00:21:09,040 --> 00:21:11,119
Speaker 11: see their stocks going up and they're being rewarded for

450
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:12,480
Speaker 11: what they're doing, they do.

451
00:21:12,520 --> 00:21:12,879
Speaker 10: More of it.

452
00:21:13,440 --> 00:21:13,560
Speaker 1: Uh.

453
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:16,600
Speaker 11: And then when they're not and the stock market goes down,

454
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 11: they take that as a message, oh, we need.

455
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 10: To cut workers, we need to expand. So it has

456
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:21,399
Speaker 10: an impact on that.

457
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 11: It has an impact on VC and early stage higher

458
00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:27,280
Speaker 11: because the dream of any startup is to either go

459
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:30,360
Speaker 11: public or sell to a public company ultimately. And if

460
00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:32,760
Speaker 11: the if that IPO window is closed, or if those

461
00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:36,919
Speaker 11: public companies have diminished valuations, that reduces your possible exit.

462
00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,080
Speaker 11: That reduces the multiples and the valuations you're going to get.

463
00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,680
Speaker 11: In the early stage or early stage activity, and then

464
00:21:42,760 --> 00:21:45,399
Speaker 11: finally beyond that, I would just say that, like, no

465
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 11: one really talks or speaks up for the stockholder. And

466
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,800
Speaker 11: I don't mean that in a facetious way like it's

467
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:52,960
Speaker 11: going to think of the poor stockholder. I mean a

468
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:56,320
Speaker 11: lot of people you know, like by stocks on Robinhood.

469
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,600
Speaker 10: And you know, it's so funny to me that.

470
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:02,479
Speaker 11: There's all this anxiety, particularly from Democrats, like how are

471
00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:05,160
Speaker 11: we going to like reach out to you know, young

472
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:07,960
Speaker 11: brothers who listen to podcasts and stuff like that, but

473
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,080
Speaker 11: they don't talk about them. They working families and the

474
00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 11: costs of you know, buy stuff, all.

475
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:15,679
Speaker 10: Of which really matters. But a lot of you know,

476
00:22:15,800 --> 00:22:19,639
Speaker 10: young men who listen to podcasts have Robbinood accounts.

477
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 11: And so there's there's sort of like ignorance of the

478
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 11: fact that a lot of people are in some way or.

479
00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 10: Another directly exposed to the stock market.

480
00:22:25,720 --> 00:22:28,480
Speaker 11: Which is why I say they even setting aside the

481
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 11: bond market tell off that we saw over the last

482
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 11: couple of days before the blank, I don't think it's

483
00:22:33,280 --> 00:22:36,280
Speaker 11: like tenable to just let stocks fall apart like that

484
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:39,439
Speaker 11: and not acknowledge how much that directly is going to

485
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,000
Speaker 11: affect things, and how quickly it's going to affect things

486
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 11: both from a consumption and hiring.

487
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 2: Stand what is your sense of what this is actually

488
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:52,159
Speaker 2: all about? You know, because you get all these different explanations.

489
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:53,000
Speaker 4: Depends on the day.

490
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:57,119
Speaker 2: Sometimes the same person will say multiple different things. It's reindustrializing,

491
00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,880
Speaker 2: it's more round new, it's you know, it's a it's a.

492
00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:00,919
Speaker 4: Go siating tactic.

493
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,560
Speaker 2: Actually, we want Republicans that one of their coked like

494
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 2: free trade type republicans like, oh, we're actually going to

495
00:23:05,880 --> 00:23:08,160
Speaker 2: try to get to a zero terraff resu. Yeah, that's

496
00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,240
Speaker 2: the real goal. I mean, what are you able to divine?

497
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:14,159
Speaker 2: And by the way, another theory of what's going on

498
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 2: here is just like insider trading that you know, Trump

499
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 2: can make announcements and move the market and buy you know,

500
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 2: and if you're on the inside you can profit off

501
00:23:23,040 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 2: of that, and if you're not, then you don't. What

502
00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,160
Speaker 2: is your sense of what's actually going on here?

503
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 10: Yeah?

504
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 11: The insider trading theories of assign a level of coordination

505
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:35,879
Speaker 11: internal coordination in the White House that I do not.

506
00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:38,840
Speaker 11: Then I think it's probably giving the White House too

507
00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:41,480
Speaker 11: much credit. You read those that reporting in the Wall

508
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,200
Speaker 11: Street Journal or the New York Times.

509
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:45,879
Speaker 10: We're knowing even on the inside.

510
00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 11: Knew that there was going to be this pivot until

511
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 11: maybe ten minutes before, and so I, you know, I

512
00:23:51,400 --> 00:23:54,320
Speaker 11: do not think that the entire plan was like that

513
00:23:54,480 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 11: well crafted to like, okay, we're going to put the

514
00:23:56,320 --> 00:23:58,919
Speaker 11: word out among the insiders. All that being said, I

515
00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:00,800
Speaker 11: don't know, And I think this is part of what

516
00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:02,600
Speaker 11: the issue for the market is.

517
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:04,439
Speaker 10: You know, it's hard to know what the end goal is.

518
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 10: We all, what do we know.

519
00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 11: We know Trump has been a fan of tariffs for decades,

520
00:24:09,080 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 11: so that's a reality one possible. There seems to be

521
00:24:13,600 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 11: this cultural thing among a lot of influencers where they

522
00:24:17,600 --> 00:24:20,280
Speaker 11: just like think that manufacturing is like per se good

523
00:24:20,320 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 11: that'll be sort of rejuvenating for the nation. In some respective,

524
00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 11: more people were working in the manufactured goods sector.

525
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 10: What I find annoying about that take is this.

526
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:33,080
Speaker 11: Sort of uh, you know, covering the eyes of the

527
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 11: fact that we actually had a lot of factories built

528
00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 11: in twenty twenty two to twenty twenty three, et cetera.

529
00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 10: A lot of this was already going on.

530
00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:41,160
Speaker 11: In fact, it might even get worse of their terraf

531
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:47,160
Speaker 11: regime if imported intermediate goods to build things actually get costlier,

532
00:24:47,560 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 11: so it could actually reverse it. And then the other

533
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:52,600
Speaker 11: thing I'm wondering about afterwards is, you know, I used

534
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 11: to think that part of the goal here was like

535
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:55,960
Speaker 11: it's important for the.

536
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 10: US to match China on key.

537
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 11: Manufactured or strategic goods, particularly related to high seed or

538
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 11: particularly related to things that go into weaponry. Now I'm

539
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 11: wondering if the goal is just to crush the Chinese economy,

540
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:13,920
Speaker 11: which again is about the US China tension, but is different.

541
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:16,200
Speaker 11: It's a little bit more overt and like the goal

542
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:20,400
Speaker 11: is not to madge China or supersede China. The goal

543
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:23,880
Speaker 11: is to actually do damage to a growing geopolitical ride.

544
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:25,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's certainly possible.

545
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 3: One of the things that you and I have been

546
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:29,440
Speaker 3: talking a lot about recently, Joe, is about this idea

547
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 3: of bringing manufacturing or jobs. But what you have consistently

548
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:35,800
Speaker 3: pointed out is that since the imposition of tariffs, it

549
00:25:35,880 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 3: is the manufacturers themselves who are screaming about increasing costs.

550
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 3: So in any regime where there would be tariffs, what

551
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 3: sort of capital injection tax plan confidence with these people

552
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 3: have to have to actually.

553
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 1: Wind up to the stated goal of the White House.

554
00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 3: And I think of many Americans who brings some certain

555
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 3: critical industry, manufacturing, et cetera back to here.

556
00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 1: We don't see that right now.

557
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:04,919
Speaker 11: Industrialization is insane insanely difficult. Most countries historically seem to

558
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:09,120
Speaker 11: fail at these efforts. Where they seem to work, there

559
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 11: seems to be a sort of two things have to happen.

560
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:13,680
Speaker 10: You have some protection for.

561
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:18,200
Speaker 11: Domestic industry, and then you have to create some mechanism,

562
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,119
Speaker 11: sorry for those companies to compete, like help in the

563
00:26:21,160 --> 00:26:24,280
Speaker 11: global marketplace, to prove that they're actually doing good things

564
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 11: rather than just taking a government money or rather than

565
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:29,600
Speaker 11: just being protected and getting protectionism.

566
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 10: And so in theory, what you.

567
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 11: Would want to see is you'd want to see, Okay,

568
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 11: we're going to give you some degree of protection, either

569
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:37,639
Speaker 11: in the form of tariffs, you're going to own the

570
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 11: US market, or export subsidies. But to continue to get

571
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:44,440
Speaker 11: these things, you have to prove that you're doing the

572
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 11: best highest tech production and competing at the global level.

573
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,879
Speaker 11: One way that you could theoretically do it, which I

574
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 11: don't know if there's any appetite for really, but I

575
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 11: would say invite VID and showing me to set up

576
00:26:56,359 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 11: car factories in you know, Georgia, Miss Sippy, et cetera.

577
00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 11: And then you get twofold, you get that technology transfer

578
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 11: where they're like, okay, this is experienced people who know

579
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 11: how to build up a plan. And then you make

580
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 11: contenzloas on the Fords of the GMS compete in the

581
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:13,800
Speaker 11: world's biggest auto market or maybe the second biggest auto market.

582
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:15,959
Speaker 11: Now again some of the best players in the world,

583
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 11: force them to step up their game even further, and

584
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 11: then you actually can combine industrial policy with capitalist competition.

585
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:26,119
Speaker 11: It's very hard to do. It's very hard to do politically.

586
00:27:26,440 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 11: You know, shareholders still love it. But if you're actually serious.

587
00:27:29,440 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 10: About what we want to.

588
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:32,879
Speaker 11: Have a dynamic manufacturing industry, and I don't think we

589
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 11: want to have an un dynamic manufacturing industry because then

590
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:38,879
Speaker 11: it's we're really just talking about assembly line jobs, right, Like,

591
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,439
Speaker 11: if you're having an un dynamic manufacturing these are not

592
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 11: particularly desirable jobs. And I think again like people should

593
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,000
Speaker 11: sort of, like, I don't know, stick up a little

594
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 11: bit for the laptop class. And remember, we are very

595
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:54,119
Speaker 11: lucky to have a lot of employment in this country

596
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:56,919
Speaker 11: that doesn't require back breaking labor that you can do

597
00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,800
Speaker 11: in a cool and air conditioned, comfortable office.

598
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 10: These are not fandsakes.

599
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 11: I feel very fortunate the many Americans to get to

600
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:05,879
Speaker 11: work in an office instead of an assembly line.

601
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:06,680
Speaker 10: But if you want to.

602
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 11: Bring back un dynamic on competitive manufacturing, you would bring

603
00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 11: back a lot of pretty miserable jobs.

604
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:15,639
Speaker 2: Well, especially at a point in time when you know

605
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 2: the labor movement has been decimated. So you are not

606
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 2: talking about going back to the fifties. You are talking

607
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:24,000
Speaker 2: about going back to the nineteen hundreds when you had

608
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 2: much less labor regulation and lower wages and no federal

609
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:30,679
Speaker 2: child labor laws and things of that nature. I mean,

610
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:33,160
Speaker 2: I'm being a little bit hyperbolic here, but the reality

611
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 2: is you're not going back to those sort of like

612
00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:38,160
Speaker 2: solid union middle class jobs that can support a whole

613
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,560
Speaker 2: family and buy a house because also those things like

614
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,440
Speaker 2: housing have become wildly more expensive. Healthcare, education, those things

615
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 2: have become wildly more expensive. Something else I wanted to

616
00:28:46,680 --> 00:28:48,800
Speaker 2: get you to weigh in on, Joe is, guys, can

617
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:50,920
Speaker 2: we put a five up on the screen? People are

618
00:28:50,920 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 2: sharing this chart around Yesterday obviously was a big.

619
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 4: Rebound in the market. One of the biggest gains.

620
00:28:57,120 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 2: In the S and P History eighth best day in history.

621
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 2: When you go look at the other large games that

622
00:29:03,280 --> 00:29:05,920
Speaker 2: are on that list, and it's like, oh, nineteen thirty three,

623
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 2: nineteen twenty nine, nineteen thirty one, two thousand and eight,

624
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 2: and even you know, twenty twenty makes the list here

625
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 2: as well. So you know, I guess give people a

626
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 2: sense are we kind of out of the woods here

627
00:29:17,120 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 2: or One of the things that we've been asking the

628
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 2: question about as well is even when you roll back

629
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:25,520
Speaker 2: the tariffs, yeah, we've got a ninety day pause, we're

630
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:28,240
Speaker 2: going through We're going through all this again in ninety days.

631
00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 4: Like if you're a business owner.

632
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, this desis owners like, you can't how can you

633
00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:37,200
Speaker 2: make any decision? I would expect that most CEOs are

634
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:39,240
Speaker 2: just going to kind of freeze in place and see

635
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:40,440
Speaker 2: what the hell's going to shake down?

636
00:29:41,280 --> 00:29:43,280
Speaker 11: Why would you take an your risk at least for

637
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:46,640
Speaker 11: ninety days and look like, you know, this is the

638
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 11: Trump White House. Why would you want the drama to

639
00:29:49,280 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 11: end in ninety days? Why would you want to show

640
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:54,080
Speaker 11: to end in ninety days? Well, yeah, like why at

641
00:29:54,160 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 11: least for the next three months, Why would you want

642
00:29:56,520 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 11: to make any major capital outlayer seriously think about expanding

643
00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 11: headcounts in an environment like that. But yes, it's just

644
00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 11: completely true that many of the biggest games have been

645
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 11: during periods of extreme market volatility and historically have proceeded

646
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:14,880
Speaker 11: more ugliness. I notice even today some of the games

647
00:30:14,880 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 11: are holding particularly well.

648
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 9: I know.

649
00:30:16,880 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 11: Look, I don't like to get too worked up by

650
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:22,040
Speaker 11: short term stuff. Again, I'm not surprised that we saw

651
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 11: that big rally yesterday, but there are reasons to think,

652
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:29,680
Speaker 11: both on the financial side and the real economic side

653
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:31,520
Speaker 11: that like the story isn't over it.

654
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's my last question for you, Joe, is as

655
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 3: you just alluded to ninety days, what does that? I mean,

656
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 3: that's an entire quarter of business activity. There's going to

657
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 3: be very little investment. There will be no major capital

658
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:47,840
Speaker 3: allocation or decision. That seems to be the exact opposite

659
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 3: of what you want for a roaring economy. So how

660
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 3: is this all going to play out over the next

661
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,320
Speaker 3: three months in our capital markets and our job markets? Yeah,

662
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 3: economic consumer confidence? What are people supposed to do?

663
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 10: I mean I would actually I like, actually what I've.

664
00:31:01,880 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 11: Been trying to talk to people for the last twelve hours,

665
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 11: So what is the counter argument, because the way you

666
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 11: like this articulating that didn't just seem so obvious to me.

667
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 11: So I'm like, what am I missing? Like where's the

668
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 11: growth impulse going to come from? And I mean that

669
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 11: like in a serious way, Like I'm like asking people,

670
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 11: like what is it? Because it sounds very bad at

671
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:19,200
Speaker 11: a minimum.

672
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 10: And I think there's.

673
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 11: Something else too, which is that even if you take

674
00:31:22,680 --> 00:31:26,480
Speaker 11: Secretary of Vesson's comments yesterday, very seriously, Okay, now, loogal

675
00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:28,719
Speaker 11: China has been exposed as a bad actor, and we're

676
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:30,440
Speaker 11: going to make these deals and we're going to like

677
00:31:30,520 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 11: isolate that.

678
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 10: We're going to make these deals with our friends. We're

679
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 10: going to isolate them.

680
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 11: This administration has spent the last several weeks insulting various friends,

681
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 11: threatening the sovereignty of Canada, threatening Denmark via the claims

682
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:46,760
Speaker 11: that we're going to acclore Greenland, deeply insulting things that

683
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 11: have completely shaken some of the most you know, sort

684
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 11: of stable relationships that we've had to even setting aside

685
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 11: the tariff shop. This ninety day negotiation is coming in

686
00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 11: an environment in which perceptions of us internationally, which.

687
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 10: Normally I don't care a lot about let people dislike

688
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 10: us if.

689
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:07,280
Speaker 11: We want, But now we're at the point where we're

690
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 11: negotiating deals with their democratically, in many cases, elected leaders

691
00:32:11,920 --> 00:32:14,360
Speaker 11: who have to be accountable to people who now have

692
00:32:14,400 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 11: a much more negative impression of the United States, which

693
00:32:17,560 --> 00:32:19,080
Speaker 11: is not give me a lot of hope that in

694
00:32:19,120 --> 00:32:21,480
Speaker 11: these next ninety days we're going to have these big,

695
00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 11: beautiful deal.

696
00:32:22,360 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 1: Yeah.

697
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 2: Well, not to mention, I think Sager said this the

698
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 2: other show, so I'm stealing from him. But China's fighting

699
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:31,360
Speaker 2: a trade war against us. We're fighting a trade war

700
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 2: apparently against the whole planet.

701
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:36,000
Speaker 10: So ten percent terms are still in place.

702
00:32:36,120 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 4: That's exactly right.

703
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 2: That's exactly right, and God only knows what happens next week,

704
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:42,040
Speaker 2: the week after that, ninety days from now, et cetera.

705
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 2: So Jill, thank you so much. Like I said, I know,

706
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:46,760
Speaker 2: super busy. Thank you for making the time. I'm really

707
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 2: glad to have you on the show.

708
00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 3: Thanks brother, see you, everybody goes thanks side to the

709
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:51,000
Speaker 3: Odd Lots podcast.

710
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 1: Share it, listen to it with a friend. It's a

711
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 1: great show. See man.

712
00:32:54,600 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 10: Thank you.

713
00:32:58,000 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 2: All right, So let's talk a little bit about the

714
00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:04,120
Speaker 2: time timeline of what unfolded yesterday. And these pretty significant

715
00:33:04,160 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 2: questions about who might have had some inside knowledge here

716
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 2: and been into a position to benefit from the massive

717
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:15,240
Speaker 2: market spike that came after Trump's announcement of this tariff rollback.

718
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 4: So let's put this up on the screen.

719
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 2: Early in the day, he posted this on true Social

720
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 2: this is a great time to buy DJT now. Apparently,

721
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:27,680
Speaker 2: according to the reporting, at least at this point he

722
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 2: hadn't necessarily decided what he was going to do.

723
00:33:30,320 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 4: But I mean, who knows, right, who knows?

724
00:33:32,680 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 2: So he posts this, okay, and then of course later

725
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 2: on in the day he makes his announcement. Even before this,

726
00:33:41,520 --> 00:33:44,719
Speaker 2: there were some questions about whether he was just like

727
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 2: screwing with the market to benefit the people around him.

728
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:50,360
Speaker 2: And I'm not talking about fringe internet figures or whatever.

729
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 2: Even on CNBC they were raising questions about whether or

730
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 2: not this was part of what was going on.

731
00:33:57,200 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to that.

732
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:01,280
Speaker 12: Given what the government's been doing and this administration has

733
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 12: been doing, it would not shock me, and I hate

734
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 12: to speculate, if we were to find out that a

735
00:34:07,000 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 12: whole bunch of people who work in Washington as our

736
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:12,720
Speaker 12: elected leaders, one way or the other, ultimately sold stocks

737
00:34:12,800 --> 00:34:16,120
Speaker 12: last week or potentially worse than that short.

738
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:16,400
Speaker 1: Of the market.

739
00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:19,400
Speaker 4: So Andrew ross Orkin there, that's.

740
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:19,799
Speaker 1: A big deal.

741
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 3: We should explain that because people don't release it. Like

742
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:24,919
Speaker 3: Andrew ross Storkin is the guy who wrote Too Big

743
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:27,920
Speaker 3: to Fail. Andrew ross Storkin is the voice of like

744
00:34:28,000 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 3: the the what between Walls. He's like the wit Wall

745
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 3: Street whisper he wrote Too Big to Fail.

746
00:34:33,920 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 1: He is.

747
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:38,240
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm having trouble describing him to a lay person.

748
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 3: I guess what the Morning Joe of Financial News, like

749
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 3: everybody hangs on his word. He's got the best reporting.

750
00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 3: He does the New York Times deal Book. You can

751
00:34:46,440 --> 00:34:48,720
Speaker 3: get an interview, he can get an interview with every

752
00:34:48,800 --> 00:34:51,399
Speaker 3: billionaire on the I remember talking to a guy who

753
00:34:51,440 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 3: worked for a billionaire and he goes, I don't understand

754
00:34:53,640 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 3: this Andrew ross Storkin guy, He's like, he goes around

755
00:34:56,040 --> 00:34:58,280
Speaker 3: all of us and he gets to these people's phones.

756
00:34:58,440 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 3: He's like, he doesn't even have a phone number. He

757
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:02,279
Speaker 3: changes his phone number every month. Well, that's the type

758
00:35:02,280 --> 00:35:03,240
Speaker 3: of person we're talking about.

759
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:06,239
Speaker 2: And if he says it, there are a lot of

760
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:09,279
Speaker 2: people on Wall Street who are saying because these are

761
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:12,320
Speaker 2: people who think in terms of market movements and who.

762
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 4: Stands to benefit.

763
00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 2: So when you have one man who is and you know,

764
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,839
Speaker 2: with this very small, cloistered group of advisors who are

765
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 2: making these extraordinary seat of the pants announcements that are

766
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 2: sending the entire market into total meltdown or reviving it

767
00:35:31,000 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 2: with a new truth, you have to ask the question

768
00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 2: who knew and who was in a position to place

769
00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:40,520
Speaker 2: the trades at the right time. And we're going to

770
00:35:40,560 --> 00:35:42,080
Speaker 2: show you in a minute there. I mean, there is

771
00:35:42,120 --> 00:35:45,279
Speaker 2: some evidence based on market moves to back up some

772
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 2: of these theories. It wasn't just Andrew ross Orkin on

773
00:35:48,560 --> 00:35:53,759
Speaker 2: CNBC either, though. After the Trump announcement, Commerce Secretary Howard

774
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 2: Lutnik is on CNBC and the host comes right up

775
00:35:57,200 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 2: to the break of asking him flat out basically, was

776
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 2: this is Trump just manipulating markets and trying to inside

777
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:04,440
Speaker 2: or trade here.

778
00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:06,239
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to how that went down.

779
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:09,239
Speaker 13: He also seems to be a great stock pundit, mister secretary.

780
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:12,279
Speaker 13: Earlier this morning, before the past he put out a

781
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:14,279
Speaker 13: message saying it's a great time to buy and here

782
00:36:14,280 --> 00:36:17,360
Speaker 13: we are here, we are much higher.

783
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:20,480
Speaker 9: I know is bet on Donald Trump? Every time I

784
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:20,959
Speaker 9: know better.

785
00:36:21,120 --> 00:36:23,920
Speaker 13: He also wrote dj T, which is a ticker for

786
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 13: for his media company.

787
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:28,839
Speaker 9: No, no, no, every every text, every text he sends

788
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:29,759
Speaker 9: to me, that's his name.

789
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 13: But that was a great time to buy the market, right, I.

790
00:36:31,680 --> 00:36:33,799
Speaker 1: Mean, on can Donald look?

791
00:36:34,040 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 9: Donald Donald Trump understands that it's America is the greatest country.

792
00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:41,799
Speaker 9: All right, we are the greatest country, and we have

793
00:36:41,880 --> 00:36:45,719
Speaker 9: the capacity for incredible greatness. But someone needs to take

794
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:48,719
Speaker 9: the shackles off, someone needs to let our carn our

795
00:36:49,160 --> 00:36:51,360
Speaker 9: farmers sell corn to India.

796
00:36:51,640 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 2: So she tiptoes right up to but this doesn't quite

797
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 2: come out and say she really should have though, actually

798
00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 2: go ahead and put C five up on the screen.

799
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 2: This is from our friend Unusual Whales, who pointed out, okay,

800
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 2: interesting before Trump posted that now would be a great

801
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:12,720
Speaker 2: time to buy. On true social you had traders opening

802
00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 2: up these certain type of calls.

803
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:16,680
Speaker 4: These are exchange traded.

804
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 2: Funds that track either the Nasdaq or the S and

805
00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 2: P five hundred. So, just to put this in layman's terms,

806
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:26,600
Speaker 2: this means you see the spike, you had a huge

807
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:33,279
Speaker 2: jump in somebody who was betting that these markets were

808
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 2: going to go up significantly, and on one of these

809
00:37:36,520 --> 00:37:40,279
Speaker 2: in particular, they were betting it was like a just

810
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:42,920
Speaker 2: a day was the timeframe. So they're basically saying, like,

811
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:47,279
Speaker 2: I think this market is going to jump up like

812
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:50,239
Speaker 2: crazy today, and these are highly leveraged, So this is

813
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 2: a very very risky bet, especially to make in the

814
00:37:53,600 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 2: midst of a massive market meltdown.

815
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 1: You can go to actual zero.

816
00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 3: It's not like buying the S and P five hundred

817
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 3: exactly exactly.

818
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 2: So right before the news he says, someone opened up

819
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:07,439
Speaker 2: five hundred and nine of these calls expiring today, and

820
00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 2: those calls are up twenty one hundred percent in a

821
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:15,839
Speaker 2: single hour. So if you happened to be in on

822
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:19,880
Speaker 2: what was gonna unfold during the day, this would be

823
00:38:19,960 --> 00:38:22,400
Speaker 2: exactly the type of market move.

824
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:23,040
Speaker 1: That you would mis Yes.

825
00:38:23,040 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 3: And for example, billionaire Charles Schwab was literally in the

826
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:30,319
Speaker 3: Oval office around the time that this announcement was made.

827
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 3: Here's Trump actually bragging about it on camera while he's

828
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 3: in the Oval office, pointing to Charles Schwab and saying,

829
00:38:36,680 --> 00:38:38,400
Speaker 3: this guy made two point five billion today.

830
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:42,359
Speaker 1: Take a listen, it's not just.

831
00:38:50,280 --> 00:38:52,279
Speaker 10: Financial wow.

832
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:55,359
Speaker 3: Just say look, I mean, as Joe said, was there

833
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 3: really a concerted effort.

834
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:57,120
Speaker 1: I don't know.

835
00:38:57,400 --> 00:38:59,800
Speaker 3: Listen, if you're Charles you hear this going on and

836
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:01,720
Speaker 3: you don't get on the phone, you'll call your broker.

837
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 3: You're an idiot, right, those like why wouldn't you do it?

838
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 3: Or elected officials let's say Trump, read in John Thune

839
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 3: or any of these other folks. We don't know if

840
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 3: any of that is true, or Speaker Mike Johnson. We

841
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:16,720
Speaker 3: know from unusual wills and others. These people are trading

842
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:20,960
Speaker 3: all the time. And if any of this sounds ridiculous,

843
00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 3: I mean, let's not point to the fact that during

844
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 3: the market crash, remember Senator Richard Burr.

845
00:39:26,000 --> 00:39:27,400
Speaker 1: Was under federal investigation.

846
00:39:27,520 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 3: They seized his cell phone for insider trading allegations and

847
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 3: even the appearance of corruption.

848
00:39:33,040 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 1: Don't forget.

849
00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:36,640
Speaker 3: Also, we will not even get the disclosures from members

850
00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:39,839
Speaker 3: of Congress for months now before we even know if

851
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:42,760
Speaker 3: they were able to trade on this information, let alone

852
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:45,520
Speaker 3: White House officials. The way that they're reporting all works,

853
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:47,480
Speaker 3: it's going to take forever for this to be able

854
00:39:47,520 --> 00:39:47,920
Speaker 3: to come out.

855
00:39:47,960 --> 00:39:50,480
Speaker 1: So there is zero transparency.

856
00:39:49,800 --> 00:39:51,120
Speaker 4: If they even bother to complain.

857
00:39:51,640 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, right, even if they do, and actually a lot don't,

858
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 3: there's a lot of these exclusions and things that you

859
00:39:56,719 --> 00:39:59,040
Speaker 3: can get. Even the form is ridiculous. It's like, I'm

860
00:39:59,080 --> 00:40:02,240
Speaker 3: worth between twelve and fifty million. You're like, okay, great,

861
00:40:02,320 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 3: thank you for the disclosure there, Yes, right, exactly, Yeah,

862
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:08,160
Speaker 3: I don't know anything about this, but my point just

863
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 3: broadly is that if you look at the data, it

864
00:40:10,800 --> 00:40:12,280
Speaker 3: is obvious something happened.

865
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:12,480
Speaker 14: Here.

866
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:14,360
Speaker 1: We have, for example C seven.

867
00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:17,880
Speaker 3: Please you can see exactly similar spike in the graph

868
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:21,319
Speaker 3: that unusual Whales found. This is increase of over ten

869
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:25,680
Speaker 3: percent on call to options ten minutes before the announcement.

870
00:40:25,800 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 3: Somebody was making a huge bet right before that.

871
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:33,719
Speaker 2: This all this was ten minutes before Trump says guess

872
00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 2: what guys were switching switching it up ten percent tariffs

873
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 2: ninety day pause, ten minutes before that person. They just

874
00:40:43,560 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 2: must be a market genius.

875
00:40:44,640 --> 00:40:48,440
Speaker 3: Acre maybe market look theoretically possible, Like they were like, oh,

876
00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:49,799
Speaker 3: I really think Trump is going to make a big

877
00:40:49,840 --> 00:40:51,800
Speaker 3: move today, and so middle of the day right around

878
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:53,680
Speaker 3: and I'm like, yeah, I don't know, No, no, nobody's

879
00:40:53,680 --> 00:40:57,160
Speaker 3: got really that. I mean, remember that whole October seventh

880
00:40:57,600 --> 00:40:59,879
Speaker 3: insight that we had and we covered here on the show.

881
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:00,560
Speaker 1: To this day.

882
00:41:00,600 --> 00:41:03,920
Speaker 3: Nobody really knows who shorted the market there immediately before

883
00:41:04,160 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 3: what we like, shorted on October sixth and got miraculously lucky.

884
00:41:08,160 --> 00:41:10,720
Speaker 3: There are all these apocryphal tales about nine to eleven

885
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 3: as well. And look, we can just simply add this

886
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 3: one to the list. The data is clear somebody did

887
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:19,080
Speaker 3: make it, So SEC and IRS will know exactly who

888
00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:19,799
Speaker 3: this person is.

889
00:41:20,640 --> 00:41:22,960
Speaker 1: It would be nice. Yeah, at the very least, just

890
00:41:23,000 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 1: do an investigation.

891
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:26,279
Speaker 4: Sir, Trump's SEC will be all over it.

892
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:28,880
Speaker 3: Well, this is the problem with the data is that

893
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:33,320
Speaker 3: this stuff, I mean dramatically undermines confidence in the overall system,

894
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:37,240
Speaker 3: as it should because everybody's like, uh, I'm sitting at home,

895
00:41:38,040 --> 00:41:40,399
Speaker 3: like let's say you're one of the Joe just stood

896
00:41:40,480 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 3: up for the stockholder, and you're just like average Joe,

897
00:41:43,040 --> 00:41:46,320
Speaker 3: like Joe, and you're at home and you're watching CNBC

898
00:41:46,480 --> 00:41:48,840
Speaker 3: and you're just sitting there panicking or thinking. And I

899
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 3: read a horrible article in the Wall Street Journal, And

900
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:53,839
Speaker 3: this is a good example of how stock crashes can

901
00:41:53,880 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 3: be very impactful. Of people who have mandatory withdrawals for

902
00:41:57,280 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 3: their children's five twenty nine plans. These are people who

903
00:41:59,920 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 3: are responsibly saved and whose kid must go to college

904
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:06,520
Speaker 3: in the fall, and they're like, yeah, now it's down

905
00:42:06,640 --> 00:42:08,640
Speaker 3: twenty percent and I may need to take out a

906
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:12,080
Speaker 3: long that's horrible, you know. And yes, they've been investing

907
00:42:12,080 --> 00:42:14,760
Speaker 3: over an eighteen year period. They've definitely made a killing

908
00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 3: on the first half, But what about the last couple

909
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:18,439
Speaker 3: of years that they put their money in, or maybe

910
00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:20,279
Speaker 3: the money in that they just put in. Now they've

911
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:22,960
Speaker 3: actually taken a net loss, you know, on that. That

912
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 3: is exactly the type of thing behavior savings and all

913
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:29,319
Speaker 3: that otherwise where there are real consequences, not to even

914
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 3: mention all the retirees who have mandatory withdrawals from their

915
00:42:32,480 --> 00:42:33,520
Speaker 3: four to one k's right now.

916
00:42:33,400 --> 00:42:35,160
Speaker 4: That's right. Well, think about it this way.

917
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:37,800
Speaker 2: So yesterday was the largest gain I believe in history

918
00:42:37,840 --> 00:42:41,919
Speaker 2: for billionaires, just like astronomical amounts of money made.

919
00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:44,799
Speaker 3: You mean from law, I guess technically, yeah, we're still

920
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:46,480
Speaker 3: down to it time, okay.

921
00:42:46,640 --> 00:42:49,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, But if you were in a position to know

922
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:52,040
Speaker 2: that this news was coming out and you were in

923
00:42:52,040 --> 00:42:55,480
Speaker 2: a position to make those moves, you if you're like

924
00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 2: you know, a union with a pension fund that you're running,

925
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:00,960
Speaker 2: you weren't on the inside, and you're talking about that

926
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:05,480
Speaker 2: is to benefit ordinary working class people, so you are

927
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:08,799
Speaker 2: still down right some people were in a position to

928
00:43:08,840 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 2: make a killing. Apparently Charles schwas made billions of dollars yesterday.

929
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:18,719
Speaker 2: That is a direct upward transfer of wealth from retail,

930
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:24,560
Speaker 2: from pensions, from you know, all of these groups that

931
00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 2: you know are just sort of like normal regular people.

932
00:43:27,640 --> 00:43:28,040
Speaker 14: What is this.

933
00:43:28,080 --> 00:43:31,280
Speaker 2: Sixty percent of Americans have some exposure to the stock mortgage.

934
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:34,120
Speaker 2: So that's why these stories really Matt. I mean, when

935
00:43:34,120 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 2: we think about we covered so much of the insider

936
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:41,800
Speaker 2: trading allegations with Congress Nancy Pelosi and all of these people,

937
00:43:42,280 --> 00:43:45,440
Speaker 2: and she would be in a position to benefit from

938
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:47,759
Speaker 2: the knowledge that she has of what Congress is up

939
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 2: to and what particular companies stand to benefit. That is

940
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:55,320
Speaker 2: much more indirect, frankly than I mean vastly more indirect

941
00:43:55,719 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 2: than Trump literally being able to truth out a total

942
00:43:59,560 --> 00:44:03,839
Speaker 2: new global trading regime. And lord knows, these people have

943
00:44:03,880 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 2: no scruples. I mean, Trump did a pump and dump

944
00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:09,120
Speaker 2: with his shitcoin and his wife's shitcoin. Like they're not

945
00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 2: ethical people. They are happy to cash in to their benefit.

946
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:16,880
Speaker 2: He certainly is, when you know he has knowledge that

947
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:19,080
Speaker 2: can benefit him, so frankly, I'd be shocked.

948
00:44:19,239 --> 00:44:21,759
Speaker 4: The big question is whether that's the whole purpose of

949
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:22,880
Speaker 4: what they're up to here.

950
00:44:22,960 --> 00:44:24,799
Speaker 2: And you know, some people are looking at this and

951
00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:28,200
Speaker 2: are like, I can't really divine any other purpose that

952
00:44:28,280 --> 00:44:29,239
Speaker 2: makes any sense here.

953
00:44:29,680 --> 00:44:31,960
Speaker 4: So it is possible that the whole point.

954
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:35,640
Speaker 2: Is just a sort of like global economic wide pump

955
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:38,480
Speaker 2: and dump. And if that is the goal, well so

956
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 2: far they've been phenomenally successful for that. There is one

957
00:44:41,760 --> 00:44:43,840
Speaker 2: person that does not seem to have been on the

958
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:46,600
Speaker 2: inside in terms of knowing what was going on, and

959
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:49,879
Speaker 2: that's the US Trade Representative Jameson Greer, who also that's

960
00:44:49,920 --> 00:44:52,800
Speaker 2: the person who Emily had floated might have been mistaken

961
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:53,880
Speaker 2: for Jeffrey.

962
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:55,520
Speaker 4: Goldberg, but I think it was. I think it might.

963
00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:56,879
Speaker 4: I saw that it might have been someone different.

964
00:44:56,920 --> 00:44:58,840
Speaker 2: But in any case, maybe he was supposed to be

965
00:44:58,880 --> 00:45:02,400
Speaker 2: on the signal chat letting everybody know, and instead Jeffrey

966
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:07,359
Speaker 2: Goldberg gotta instead sorry, was testifying before Congress when and

967
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:10,200
Speaker 2: learned in real time what was going on with this,

968
00:45:10,440 --> 00:45:13,920
Speaker 2: and the Democratic member who was questioning him when he

969
00:45:13,960 --> 00:45:15,880
Speaker 2: finds out, he also immediately goes to the place of

970
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:17,799
Speaker 2: like what the hell are you people doing? How do

971
00:45:17,880 --> 00:45:19,440
Speaker 2: you you're in the US Trade rep How do you

972
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:22,160
Speaker 2: not know what's going on and who does and what

973
00:45:22,239 --> 00:45:23,799
Speaker 2: billionaire are standing to benefit here?

974
00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:24,359
Speaker 4: Let's take a.

975
00:45:24,280 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 2: Listen to how that went, Dad, This is C four guys,

976
00:45:26,120 --> 00:45:26,920
Speaker 2: let's go ahead and play that.

977
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:29,480
Speaker 15: Are you aware that the terrors have been paused?

978
00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:31,400
Speaker 14: I am yes.

979
00:45:31,719 --> 00:45:33,680
Speaker 15: When were you made aware of that?

980
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:34,120
Speaker 9: Well?

981
00:45:34,160 --> 00:45:36,480
Speaker 14: I understood the decision was made a few minutes ago.

982
00:45:36,640 --> 00:45:40,280
Speaker 16: Sitting here under discussion, sitting here under discussion.

983
00:45:40,320 --> 00:45:42,920
Speaker 15: So did you know that this was under discussion?

984
00:45:42,960 --> 00:45:44,960
Speaker 16: And why did you not include that as part of

985
00:45:45,000 --> 00:45:46,040
Speaker 16: your opening remarks?

986
00:45:46,200 --> 00:45:49,320
Speaker 14: So typically, what I don't do is divulge the contents

987
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:50,120
Speaker 14: of my discussions.

988
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:51,960
Speaker 15: What are the details of the pause?

989
00:45:52,960 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 14: Well, my understanding is that because so many countries have

990
00:45:56,760 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 14: decided not to retaliate, we're going to have about ninety

991
00:45:59,600 --> 00:45:59,920
Speaker 14: days No.

992
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:05,920
Speaker 16: Excuse me, you we are the China increase their tariffs

993
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 16: on the United States.

994
00:46:07,320 --> 00:46:09,160
Speaker 15: Trump blinked.

995
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:11,440
Speaker 14: What's the blink? Sir?

996
00:46:12,960 --> 00:46:15,160
Speaker 15: What do you know about this pause? What are the

997
00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:15,920
Speaker 15: details of it?

998
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:19,680
Speaker 14: Well, the details, as I understand it, is that China

999
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:23,839
Speaker 14: continues to retaliate. Other countries didn't retaliate. The President two

1000
00:46:23,960 --> 00:46:26,120
Speaker 14: or three days ago said we wanted to negotiate with

1001
00:46:26,160 --> 00:46:28,600
Speaker 14: those countries that ask for that, ask for meetings. That's

1002
00:46:28,600 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 14: what we're doing.

1003
00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:31,239
Speaker 16: What are the wed How long is the pause? How

1004
00:46:31,239 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 16: many days? How many weeks?

1005
00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:36,000
Speaker 14: I understand it's ninety days. I haven't spoken to the

1006
00:46:36,000 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 14: present since I.

1007
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:40,440
Speaker 16: So the Trade Representative hasn't spoken to the President of

1008
00:46:40,480 --> 00:46:44,280
Speaker 16: the United States about a global reordering of trade?

1009
00:46:45,719 --> 00:46:47,719
Speaker 14: Yes, I have, and yet hearing with you so.

1010
00:46:47,600 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 15: But yet he announced it on a tweet. WTF who's

1011
00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:52,719
Speaker 15: in charge?

1012
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:54,760
Speaker 14: The President of United States is in charge?

1013
00:46:54,800 --> 00:46:59,760
Speaker 16: And what do you know about those details?

1014
00:47:01,040 --> 00:47:02,320
Speaker 4: I don't know what I do.

1015
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 3: You know why that's nuts is because he Jamison Greer.

1016
00:47:06,000 --> 00:47:08,319
Speaker 3: Not only is he the US Trade Representative, that's a

1017
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:11,800
Speaker 3: cabinet level official who's technically supposed to be in charge

1018
00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:14,440
Speaker 3: of a lot of this stuff. But even more, you know,

1019
00:47:14,520 --> 00:47:17,520
Speaker 3: when you implement the tariffs, he's the guy who writes

1020
00:47:17,680 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 3: all the stuff. He did the formula, you know, all

1021
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:21,880
Speaker 3: the justification of the formula.

1022
00:47:21,920 --> 00:47:24,319
Speaker 1: It was him. That's his office. That's what their job

1023
00:47:24,719 --> 00:47:25,520
Speaker 1: is supposed to be.

1024
00:47:25,600 --> 00:47:27,839
Speaker 3: They're supposed to work with customs and border patrol and

1025
00:47:27,880 --> 00:47:30,200
Speaker 3: all of these other agencies to actually implement these tariffs.

1026
00:47:30,239 --> 00:47:32,360
Speaker 3: So it's pretty insane that he not only was not

1027
00:47:32,400 --> 00:47:34,600
Speaker 3: in the room, he wasn't even consulted, and he learned

1028
00:47:34,600 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 3: about it by a truth law. He's testifying live before

1029
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:38,960
Speaker 3: the United States Congress. And the thing is, if you

1030
00:47:38,960 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 3: look at his opening statement, the entire opening statement is

1031
00:47:41,239 --> 00:47:44,160
Speaker 3: a justification of the terriff for shame. And then he

1032
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:45,960
Speaker 3: has to be like, actually, it's very smart. What are

1033
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:46,400
Speaker 3: we doing?

1034
00:47:46,520 --> 00:47:49,279
Speaker 4: Insane and insanity, it's part of the deal.