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Speaker 1: in West Virginia. All right, Welcome to Hoops Tonight, presented
Speaker 1: by Fandel here at the volume. Happy Monday, everybody, I
Speaker 1: help all of you guys had an incredible weekend. The
Speaker 1: NBA season starts tomorrow. I can't freaking believe it, but
Speaker 1: it's here, and we have about what eight and a
Speaker 1: half months of steady basketball coming ahead of us, and
Speaker 1: I'm very, very excited for Here's the plan for this week.
Speaker 1: So this morning, I want to touch on the Warriors
Speaker 1: extensions that took place over the weekend of Jordan Pool
Speaker 1: and Andrew Wiggins, which are super fascinating on a bunch
Speaker 1: of levels. Because a lot of Warriors fans are referring
Speaker 1: to this as their last dance. I don't necessarily see
Speaker 1: that as the case, but I want to go into
Speaker 1: some details there. Um this afternoon or later this evening,
Speaker 1: we're gonna have another video coming out that's gonna be
Speaker 1: my final, like season preview. It's just gonna essentially be
Speaker 1: my opportunity to put my final predictions down for the season. Now,
Speaker 1: as you all know, predictions are total crapshoot. If we
Speaker 1: all knew what was gonna happen, we all be in
Speaker 1: Vegas making money gambling. That's not the case. I'm just
Speaker 1: gonna give you guys my best guesses based on my
Speaker 1: personal view of the game. Get all that stuff nailed
Speaker 1: down this evening. That's like who I picked to win
Speaker 1: the title, who I think is gonna win the West
Speaker 1: and the East, and biggest Underachiever, Biggest Overachiever m VP,
Speaker 1: that kind of stuff. We're gonna get all that stuff
Speaker 1: down and recorded later on today and then tomorrow is
Speaker 1: gonna be our first live show of the year, So
Speaker 1: we'll be going live right after the final buzzer of
Speaker 1: Lakers Warriors. We have another live show coming this Thursday.
Speaker 1: After the last game of the night. On t n
Speaker 1: T Wednesday, we'll have like an in depth film breakdown
Speaker 1: of Tuesday nights games on that day. You're gonna want
Speaker 1: to make sure that you follow me on Twitter as well,
Speaker 1: because that's where I'll put all the footage breakdowns and
Speaker 1: stuff where I actually can use NBA footage. But yeah, today,
Speaker 1: to start, we're gonna be talking about those Warriors extensions.
Speaker 1: You guys know the drill before we get started. Subscribe
Speaker 1: to the volumes YouTube channels. You don't miss any more videos.
Speaker 1: Follow me on Twitter at Underscore Jason Lts. You guys
Speaker 1: don't miss any show announcements as well as the footage
Speaker 1: breakdowns that I was referencing earlier and then last but
Speaker 1: not least. For whatever reason, you miss one of these
Speaker 1: videos and you can't get back over to YouTube to
Speaker 1: finish them, you can find them wherever you get your
Speaker 1: podcasts Under Hoops tonight. So on that note, let's talk
Speaker 1: some basketball. Why did the Warriors prioritize Jordan and Andrew
Speaker 1: And obviously they did because these were pretty damn lucrative extensions,
Speaker 1: and Raymond was also up for an extension and he
Speaker 1: didn't get one, So that doesn't mean they're not going
Speaker 1: to sign him to one. We don't know yet. We
Speaker 1: don't that's still up in the air and we're gonna
Speaker 1: get to that in a minute. But it's clear that
Speaker 1: Jordan and Andrew were somewhat of a priority. Now why
Speaker 1: is that? I think it's pretty simple. They're young, meaning
Speaker 1: you don't have to worry about age being a factor
Speaker 1: in the contract, but they're also already high level playoff contributor.
Speaker 1: We're gonna do a lot of juxtapi juxtaposition with the
Speaker 1: Lakers today because I think it's hilarious to see the
Speaker 1: gap in management competency and ownership competitiveness between the two,
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna be making some comparisons there. This is
Speaker 1: not the Lakers betting on Taylor Horton Tucker over Alex Caruso,
Speaker 1: because Taylor Horton Tucker was not even a contributor yet.
Speaker 1: He was a bench player for them that had some
Speaker 1: minor success during stretches when Lebron James and Anthony Davis
Speaker 1: were hurt in season. He was not a proven playoff
Speaker 1: contributor yet they Alex Cruso was, and in that case,
Speaker 1: the Lakers misallocated resources, not applying enough value to that.
Speaker 1: Jordan Pool and Andrew Wiggins just both had monumentally impactful
Speaker 1: playoff runs. Andrew Wiggins was probably their second most important
Speaker 1: player in that runs. He either him or Draymond depending
Speaker 1: on who you ask. Jordan Poole in that playoff run
Speaker 1: his first ever playoff run average seventeen points per game
Speaker 1: on sixty from shooting. It was incredible, particularly in that
Speaker 1: Game six in Boston while Steph was on the bench
Speaker 1: in the it was either late first or early second
Speaker 1: when they went on that big run. He was a
Speaker 1: proven playoff player his first time around. And then Andrew
Speaker 1: Wiggins in his combination of defense guarding the other team's
Speaker 1: best player and what he did on offense attacking closeouts
Speaker 1: and knocking down threes, incredibly valuable in the playoffs. So
Speaker 1: they were prioritizing two players that they knew for a
Speaker 1: fact if they needed them to start an NBA Finals
Speaker 1: game this year, they'd be ready for it. They'd be
Speaker 1: capable of doing so, doing it at a high level.
Speaker 1: That's the difference in investing in that kind of youth
Speaker 1: versus investing in youth that's more of a gamble with
Speaker 1: something like what the Lakers did with Taylor Norton Tucker.
Speaker 1: In addition to that, these simply put her just to
Speaker 1: clear foundational pieces for the Warriors future. These are two
Speaker 1: players that if you're if they're your third or fourth
Speaker 1: best player, your second or third best player, and you've
Speaker 1: got a good enough number one, you can win a
Speaker 1: lot of basketball games. So it was just a sound
Speaker 1: investment on that front. And then this was the important
Speaker 1: part that I wanted to get to. They also have
Speaker 1: skill sets that are monumentally important in the modern m
Speaker 1: b A. This is not investing in a guy like
Speaker 1: DeAndre Ayton, who's obviously one of the best players at
Speaker 1: his position, but plays a position that carries significantly less
Speaker 1: value as you get into the playoffs. Right. This is
Speaker 1: not investing in a lower value archetype. This is I'm
Speaker 1: getting a three and D wing that's a lot more
Speaker 1: than a three and D wing, and I'm getting Jordan Pool,
Speaker 1: which we're gonna get you in a second. Let's let's
Speaker 1: talk about if you guys remember over the course of
Speaker 1: the summer, what are the two things that I talked
Speaker 1: about on both ends of the floor. That are the
Speaker 1: most important skills in basketball right now, with the way
Speaker 1: the game has changed on the offensive end, I said
Speaker 1: pull up shooting, right, because that's the best counter to
Speaker 1: any coverage that any team unleashes on you. Well, Jordan's
Speaker 1: Pool in his third season shot thirty eight percent on
Speaker 1: five pull up jumpers per game. As a kid, He's
Speaker 1: a kid, and he's doing that. It's gonna only get
Speaker 1: better from there. And then what was this? What? What?
Speaker 1: What was another specific offensive trait that I spent a
Speaker 1: lot of time talking about over this summer, rim pressure,
Speaker 1: And I talked about all the value that comes from
Speaker 1: rim pressure, not just collapsing the defense you can kick
Speaker 1: to threes, not just making layups, which are a high
Speaker 1: efficiency shot, but the way you can impact things in
Speaker 1: terms of offensive rebounding and changing matchups by drawing help. Well,
Speaker 1: Jordan Pool averaged, according to NBA dot Com, eight point
Speaker 1: two drives per game last year, which was second best
Speaker 1: on the team behind Steph. And again, I always try
Speaker 1: to compare the tracking data or the metrics that we
Speaker 1: have to what I see with my eyes, and persistently,
Speaker 1: what I've told you guys about Jordan Pool is what
Speaker 1: I like about him that makes him so different from
Speaker 1: Stephan Clay is he is so damned fast that he
Speaker 1: can beat people off the dribble all game long. Now,
Speaker 1: Steph he leads the team and drives. He gets to
Speaker 1: the rim all the time. But he does that by
Speaker 1: weaponizing his shooting. He's not just blowing by people with
Speaker 1: quickness that often unless he's getting a big on a switch.
Speaker 1: Jordan Pool has that kind of burst. He's very valuable
Speaker 1: to the team on the offensive end because of his
Speaker 1: ability to get downhill. And then obviously he's a great shooters,
Speaker 1: shot thirty eight percent on five catch and shoot threes
Speaker 1: per game. But the point is is, Jordan Pool gives
Speaker 1: me two of the most important offensive skills in the
Speaker 1: modern NBA, getting downhill to the rim and knocking down
Speaker 1: pull up jump shots. So they're investing in an archetype
Speaker 1: of player that has proven to be super valuable in
Speaker 1: the NBA, in the modern NBA future proof if you
Speaker 1: want to call it that. And then we go over
Speaker 1: to Andrew Wiggins. I think he's one of the five
Speaker 1: best perimeter defenders in basketball. What did I say is
Speaker 1: the most important skill on defense in the modern NBA
Speaker 1: right now? Perimeter defense because containing the ball prevents the
Speaker 1: team from getting into their driving kick and getting the
Speaker 1: role players involved. Andrew Wiggins and what he did to
Speaker 1: contain Luca don Chich and to contain Jayson Tatum through
Speaker 1: both of those teams wildly out of whack in their offense.
Speaker 1: That's how valuable Andrew Wiggins is because of what he
Speaker 1: can do as a perimeter defender. And Andrew Wiggins also
Speaker 1: can knock down pull up jump shots. He was thirty
Speaker 1: on four pull up jumpers per game, which is completely respectable.
Speaker 1: He also was third on the team and drives per
Speaker 1: game with seven drives per game. We talked about that
Speaker 1: uh in some of our preseason breakdowns, how strong an
Speaker 1: athletic he is, and with the way he rips through
Speaker 1: to the bat ask it and how guys just can't
Speaker 1: hold on to him anymore because Andrew is finally starting
Speaker 1: to come to terms with how dominant of an athlete
Speaker 1: he is and how he can weaponize that in a
Speaker 1: basketball game. And then he also shot on catching shoot threes.
Speaker 1: So the bottom line is is these are two really
Speaker 1: smart investments investments from the Warriors. They are modern basketball
Speaker 1: players that bring very important modern skills, they're young, so
Speaker 1: they're smart to invest in in the respect that they're
Speaker 1: not going to diminish in value over the course of
Speaker 1: the contract. And they're absolutely pillars of the franchises future.
Speaker 1: They needed to be prioritized. So the question comes, where
Speaker 1: does Draymond fit in all of this, and it's it's
Speaker 1: an interesting question. First of all, let's just start up
Speaker 1: up front. Draymond is one of the three most valuable
Speaker 1: players on this team. He had some rough moments in
Speaker 1: this playoff run, but there's no question that what he
Speaker 1: does on the defensive end of the floor for them
Speaker 1: is immensely valuable. He missed twenty nine straight games with
Speaker 1: a back injury this season, and the team went sixteen
Speaker 1: and thirteen, and their defense sucked compared to what it
Speaker 1: was and Steph Curry couldn't get the same high quality
Speaker 1: shots that he used to get because Draymond does a
Speaker 1: lot for them on the offensive end, even though it
Speaker 1: doesn't look like he does sometimes. And there are times
Speaker 1: where Draymond does hurt them on offense. That's that goes
Speaker 1: without saying. But there are also times where he makes
Speaker 1: it work. He that that's that's those were his good
Speaker 1: Dad playoff games in the in the in this playoff run,
Speaker 1: when he's not succeeding in some of the things he
Speaker 1: does on offense, screening really hard, making good decisions in
Speaker 1: the role, looking to score just enough to keep the
Speaker 1: defense honest, hunting steph for looks off the ball, those
Speaker 1: sorts of things. When he does those things, he's actually
Speaker 1: a good offensive player. He just had some games in
Speaker 1: this playoff run where he didn't do those things, but
Speaker 1: then he did them when it mattered. In the NBA Finals,
Speaker 1: after he called his shot, he was playing like trash
Speaker 1: and they were down to one, and he was like,
Speaker 1: I'm playing like trash. Oh, by the way, c J
Speaker 1: McCollum orriever the heck he was talking trash year I
Speaker 1: think it was c J. He's like, yeah, by the way,
Speaker 1: they're gonna be ringless just like you. We're gonna win
Speaker 1: this series. And he put his money where his mouth was.
Speaker 1: He guarded Jalen Brown and locked his ass up, and
Speaker 1: then he had his best offensive game of the series
Speaker 1: when they needed it in Game six on the road.
Speaker 1: He's more valuable to winning basketball games right now than
Speaker 1: Jordan's pool is. That doesn't mean that it wasn't a
Speaker 1: smart investment for them to sign Jordan Pool. Absolutely was
Speaker 1: for all the reasons we said earlier, but don't underestimate
Speaker 1: Draymond's value in all of this. The it's just a
Speaker 1: reality of their financial predicament. It would cost it would
Speaker 1: cost you lake of hundreds of millions of dollars to
Speaker 1: retain Draymond as well in all of this, and that
Speaker 1: makes it a tough decision. And so when you're looking
Speaker 1: at the layout and I see, I got Jordan Pool
Speaker 1: that I gotta pay. I got you know, uh, Andrew Wiggins,
Speaker 1: I gotta pay. I got Draymond I gotta pay. I
Speaker 1: got Clay Thompson that I'm gonna have to pay soon.
Speaker 1: You look at that and and it it is complicated.
Speaker 1: And you look at that and you see Draymond and
Speaker 1: Clay are obviously Draymond because of his age and he's
Speaker 1: starting to experience some physical decline. He had some back
Speaker 1: issues last year. And then you've got Clay tom Soon
Speaker 1: who's had two serious injuries in the last couple of years.
Speaker 1: It's you look at that and you go, they will
Speaker 1: if you sign both of those guys to four year extensions,
Speaker 1: they will likely during those extensions experience significant physical declines
Speaker 1: and not be as valuable in the tail end of
Speaker 1: those contracts. That's just the reality of father time. That's
Speaker 1: not an insult. And so when you're looking at the
Speaker 1: layout like you have to make some tough decisions, that
Speaker 1: doesn't mean they won't still be productive basketball players on
Speaker 1: those deals. That doesn't mean they won't deserve the money.
Speaker 1: It just means it has to be factored in when
Speaker 1: they're making those kinds of decisions. That means the Warriors
Speaker 1: were right to pay the young guys and to try
Speaker 1: to negotiate discounted deals for Draymond and Clay. That's just
Speaker 1: good business. You can't fault them for that. But here's
Speaker 1: why I don't because a lot of Warriors fans have
Speaker 1: been going the route of like, oh, they're gonna trade
Speaker 1: these guys. I don't think they're gonna trade either of them.
Speaker 1: And the main reason why is I think Clay is
Speaker 1: going to take a significant discount to remain with the Warriors.
Speaker 1: First of all, they gave him a MAX deal right
Speaker 1: after he tore his a c L. He's experienced a
Speaker 1: vote of confidence from the franchise. He's making over forty
Speaker 1: million this year and over forty million next year. He's
Speaker 1: doing just fine. That in his identity is very much
Speaker 1: tied up with this franchise, even more so than Draymond's is,
Speaker 1: in my opinion, like he just you just it's you.
Speaker 1: You can't even fathom the idea that Clay would play
Speaker 1: for somebody else. So I think Clay as a kind
Speaker 1: of like a uh, you know, as as a return
Speaker 1: of a grateful return for what happened after he town
Speaker 1: his towards a c L. I could see him taking
Speaker 1: a discount of deal. So I think he'll stay. But
Speaker 1: Draymond is way too important to their title chances in
Speaker 1: the immediate future for them to trade. That's the issue,
Speaker 1: because Draymond has legit reasons to maybe you want to
Speaker 1: be elsewhere. For starters, he's been the guy who is
Speaker 1: the Scottie Pippen of this particular dynasty. He is the
Speaker 1: guy that has been consistently underpaid relative to his value.
Speaker 1: This year, he's gonna make just under twenty six million dollars.
Speaker 1: That will be the most he's ever made with the Warriors,
Speaker 1: And like I would argue, he's more valuable to them
Speaker 1: winning than Clay Thompson and Clay Thompson has been making
Speaker 1: over forty So obviously Draymond has reason to be like, Hey,
Speaker 1: at what point do I get taken care of in
Speaker 1: all of this. That's a realistic concern of his, And
Speaker 1: so I could see him after this deal ends. I
Speaker 1: think he'll opt out after this year, He'll opt out
Speaker 1: of the twenty seven and look for a deal. I
Speaker 1: could see him looking like for one last long term deal,
Speaker 1: and if the Warriors try to offer him a discount,
Speaker 1: I could see him going elsewhere to get that money.
Speaker 1: So then it becomes you know he's leaving. If that's
Speaker 1: the case. If you know he's leaving, do you trade him?
Speaker 1: You can't trade him because his value is so unique
Speaker 1: to the Warriors that you're not going to get a
Speaker 1: ton back. It's not like you're gonna get a superstar back.
Speaker 1: So the reality is is they whatever they do, trading
Speaker 1: Draymond hurts them in that particular season. I think later
Speaker 1: today we're gonna do our season preview. I am going
Speaker 1: to say that I think the Warriors are going to
Speaker 1: win the title. I think they're the best team in
Speaker 1: the league right now. They have the best chance to
Speaker 1: win if they trade Draymond overnight, even if they get
Speaker 1: Miles Turner back overnight, they go from my number one
Speaker 1: to behind the Bucks, behind the Clippers, behind the Celtics.
Speaker 1: That's how much of that's how important Draymond is to
Speaker 1: what they do. And I get it's been frustrating. I
Speaker 1: get that he signed with Clutch and he talks about
Speaker 1: Lebron a lot and for some reason that bothers Warriors fans.
Speaker 1: I get that he punched a teammate when he had
Speaker 1: a bad moment. But he is vitally important to the
Speaker 1: Warriors winning basketball games. That is just a fact, and
Speaker 1: so they will not trade him, knowing that it actively
Speaker 1: and significantly handicaps their chance to win. So what will
Speaker 1: probably end up happening, if I had to guess, is
Speaker 1: that he finishes this season with a smile on his face,
Speaker 1: creating no drama, and he approaches the front office and
Speaker 1: asks for a deal. They probably offer him something too small.
Speaker 1: I believe he will opt out of that deal and
Speaker 1: probably signed to go play elsewhere for somewhere in that
Speaker 1: four to eighty four for eighty four for a hundred,
Speaker 1: you know, somewhere between twenty and twenty five million per
Speaker 1: year for another four years somewhere else next summer, some
Speaker 1: team that used him as a culture changer, a guy
Speaker 1: that can come in and overnight completely revamped their defense.
Speaker 1: That's just it's just the reality of the business of
Speaker 1: it all. And again, it's kind of unfortunate because I
Speaker 1: view it as it's kind of insulting to what Draymond
Speaker 1: has done in his years here. But I understand where
Speaker 1: they're coming from from a business perspective of needing to
Speaker 1: pay all these other guys and the realities of the
Speaker 1: luxury tax and the fact that if you pay Draymond
Speaker 1: million a year, it really costs you almost a hundred
Speaker 1: a year, and it's just complicated that way. But yeah,
Speaker 1: that's my guess. I guess that Clay takes a discount
Speaker 1: and stays, Draymond finishes the season, opts out, and then
Speaker 1: signs a long term deal elsewhere because he deserves his
Speaker 1: freaking money. Man, he's seeking another lucrative contract because he's
Speaker 1: been underpaid, and he has every right to do so.
Speaker 1: I don't think I don't think Warriors fans should judge
Speaker 1: him for being disloyal if he decides to leave, because
Speaker 1: he would be leaving because he's the guy who got
Speaker 1: the short end of the stick in this whole thing.
Speaker 1: I wanted to talk about Joe Laco for a second,
Speaker 1: because again it's just I wanted to just put a
Speaker 1: juxtapose with Genie Bust. Obviously, this half million dollar payroll
Speaker 1: that he's gonna pay this season or next season borders
Speaker 1: on insanity, and it's obviously an unrealistic standard to hold
Speaker 1: other owners too. Like when we ask owners to spend,
Speaker 1: it's not like we're asking them to spend a half million.
Speaker 1: We're asking them just to spend reasonably when you have
Speaker 1: a chance to win a championship. But even with that
Speaker 1: adjusted standard, it's still hilarious. Juxtaposed with Genie Buss and
Speaker 1: the Lakers, Joe Lacob and Bob Myers valued the contribution
Speaker 1: of their role players. They recognized Jordan's Pool and Andrew
Speaker 1: Wiggins for their invaluable contribution to winning in this playoff front.
Speaker 1: They saw the basketball and saw how those two guys
Speaker 1: were so important to them winning. Genie and Rob undervalued
Speaker 1: their role players and flipped two quality starters for Russ
Speaker 1: because what they saw when they won the title in
Speaker 1: was Lebron James and Anthony Davis getting a lot of
Speaker 1: dunks and blocks and knocking down big threes. And they
Speaker 1: thought Lebron and a d carried us to the title,
Speaker 1: and they failed to see that it was the fact
Speaker 1: that every single one of their rotation players, not namer
Speaker 1: Gen Rondo, was like six six or bigger, could defend
Speaker 1: multiple positions and attack close outs and just played really smart.
Speaker 1: Basketball is a basketball team that won the title, not
Speaker 1: Lebron James and Anthony Davis. Joe Lacom went deep into
Speaker 1: the tax to retain both of those young role players
Speaker 1: the Bulls. The Bulls offered Alex Cruso nine million per year,
Speaker 1: and Robin Genie was like, goodbye, Alex, good luck in
Speaker 1: Chicago for nine million, And I get it. He's not
Speaker 1: Jordan's pool, but it's nine million dollars man, and I
Speaker 1: get it. Even with the tax, it's like twenty seven
Speaker 1: million or something like that. Still completely inexcusable, especially when
Speaker 1: you factor in that they invested in a young player
Speaker 1: who wasn't ready to contribute yet. Alex Cruso started Game
Speaker 1: six of the finals. It was one of their most
Speaker 1: important players. He was the plus minus guy that all
Speaker 1: the lineups that he wasn't killed. When they went small
Speaker 1: with a D at the five and had Alex Cruister
Speaker 1: with Lebron, they obliterated teams. It just represents a fundamental
Speaker 1: lack of understanding of what wins basketball games. You need
Speaker 1: some star talent with lots of good, complimentary pieces that
Speaker 1: fulfill the vital responsibilities of a basketball team. There was
Speaker 1: a list going around on Twitter last week. I don't
Speaker 1: know if you guys saw it, UM, but it was
Speaker 1: like six or seven players long, and it was all
Speaker 1: players that were on the Lakers roster last year that
Speaker 1: are now out of the NBA Entirely. That like, that
Speaker 1: is that's why people are concerned about the decision makers
Speaker 1: for the Lakers. Jennie Bust did an interview last week.
Speaker 1: I can't remember exactly who it was with UM, but
Speaker 1: in it she insinuated that she was targeted for being
Speaker 1: a woman about her inner circle, and she specifically said, like, hey,
Speaker 1: why do they question who's in, you know, Mark Cuban's
Speaker 1: inner circle. And the host rightfully pushed back and was like, well,
Speaker 1: they questioned Jerry Jones too. The issue is not the
Speaker 1: fact that it's your inner circle and your female it's
Speaker 1: the fact that you're employing family members, and these family
Speaker 1: members are making confusu family members friends, like picking based
Speaker 1: on personal relationships rather than expertise, and then those people
Speaker 1: that you have personal relationships making bad decisions. For Jerry
Speaker 1: Jones on the football field and for Genie Buss on
Speaker 1: the basketball court. That's like when you're wondering why they
Speaker 1: question your inner circle. That's why that half the roster
Speaker 1: from last year is no longer on the team, when
Speaker 1: the are no longer in the league entirely. When you
Speaker 1: look at Joe Lake and he's winning and investing in
Speaker 1: young role players and you let a young role player
Speaker 1: walk for nine million dollars, they're gonna question you about
Speaker 1: that when you consider can you when you consistently and
Speaker 1: persistently make confusing basketball decisions and they know that your
Speaker 1: inner circle is Kurt Rambis, who was a player coach
Speaker 1: who's only success came within the Lakers franchise, and he
Speaker 1: was famous for going into Frank Vogel's coaches meeting last
Speaker 1: year and saying, more, DeAndre Jordan, please, that'll fix all
Speaker 1: our problems. When that happens, When Kobe's former agent, who
Speaker 1: as we discussed as more is more of like a
Speaker 1: snake oil salesman who's trying to sell bad basketball decisions
Speaker 1: to the Laker fan base when he is completely uninterested
Speaker 1: in the guys that lad the types of players that
Speaker 1: lead you to a title in two thousand twenty. They're
Speaker 1: going to question your decision making when it's bad decision
Speaker 1: after bad decision after bad decision, one that leads to
Speaker 1: the best team in the world in being literally literally
Speaker 1: a playing team with Lebron James and Anthony Davis on
Speaker 1: the roster less than two years later, when they're projected
Speaker 1: to win less than fifty games, when the when when
Speaker 1: they look when they look as bad as they did
Speaker 1: last year, they're going to question that. They're going to
Speaker 1: be like, Okay, your decision makers are your your best
Speaker 1: friend and his husband, Kurt Rambis, your h Kobe's former agent,
Speaker 1: and then to your nephews, they're gonna be like, maybe
Speaker 1: they need to have somebody in that front office that
Speaker 1: is a basketball expert. And that's his only connection to you.
Speaker 1: The only connection he has to you is that he
Speaker 1: submitted a resume that discusses how good he is in
Speaker 1: his history making basketball decisions. That's why he works for you.
Speaker 1: That's the when. When that is the case, they won't
Speaker 1: blame you anymore, Jennie. They will blame that guy. But
Speaker 1: when it's your friends and family that work for you
Speaker 1: and the bad decisions happen, they're gonna look at you
Speaker 1: as having made mistakes, surrounding yourself with people who aren't
Speaker 1: up to the task. It's it's about basketball at its core.
Speaker 1: Winning cures everything. Do you think do you think do
Speaker 1: you think they will say anything to you if you
Speaker 1: if you guys just won basketball games, you're failing to
Speaker 1: win basketball games with Lebron James and Anthony Davis on
Speaker 1: the roster, they have every right to be concerned the
Speaker 1: way that they are. And again, I know that's kind
Speaker 1: of a whole other thing, but it's just it's so
Speaker 1: interesting to see that juxtaposed with the with the Warriors situation.
Speaker 1: It's just really interesting to see that juxtaposed tip off
Speaker 1: the NBA season. With FanDuel, America's number one sports book,
Speaker 1: new customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in free
Speaker 1: bets guaranteed when you place your first five dollar bet.
Speaker 1: Plus FanDuel is the only sports book that's giving all
Speaker 1: customers three months of NBA League Pass when they make
Speaker 1: a five dollar bet on the NBA. Then you can
Speaker 1: watch all the action as you bet on everything from
Speaker 1: money line to point spreads to totals. I've talked about
Speaker 1: a lot of futures over the course of this summer.
Speaker 1: The one I like the most right now is Yannice
Speaker 1: to win the m v P. Get great odds on it.
Speaker 1: Luca doesn't really make a ton of sense to me
Speaker 1: because I don't think the Mavericks are gonna win enough games.
Speaker 1: The Bucks are gonna win a ton of games. Janice
Speaker 1: is gonna put up crazy numbers and advanced metrics that
Speaker 1: the voters like so much, and he hasn't won since,
Speaker 1: so he's fresh in the minds of the voters. I
Speaker 1: really really like Janice to win m v P. So
Speaker 1: don't miss out on your chance to get one hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty dollars in free bets plus three months of
Speaker 1: NBA League Pass with promo code Jason t make every
Speaker 1: moment more with fan Duel, the official sports book partner
Speaker 1: of the NBA. We're gonna be doing our season preview
Speaker 1: predictions today, just kind of league. Why there's some specific
Speaker 1: predictions that I want to nail down. Who will win
Speaker 1: the East, who will win the West, who will win
Speaker 1: the NBA title. I want to talk a little bit
Speaker 1: about that specific NBA Finals matchup that I am predicting.
Speaker 1: I want to talk about which team I expect to
Speaker 1: overachieve the most, which team I expect to underachieve the most,
Speaker 1: who win m v P. And then at the very end,
Speaker 1: I want to spend some time talking about the Lakers
Speaker 1: because they're They're opening schedule to start the season is
Speaker 1: incredibly difficult, and it's very possible that they get off
Speaker 1: to a very poor start, which could lead to a
Speaker 1: bunch of potential ramifications. So I wanted to spend a
Speaker 1: little bit of time talking about them at the end.
Speaker 1: You guys know the drill before we get started. Subscribe
Speaker 1: to the Volumes YouTube channels you don't miss any more
Speaker 1: of our videos. Follow me on Twitter at underscore Jason
Speaker 1: lt so you guys don't miss any show announcements as
Speaker 1: well as footage breakdowns. There's a couple of specific breakdowns
Speaker 1: I plan on doing this Wednesday of the opening night games.
Speaker 1: A lot of footage and stuff that will be on
Speaker 1: my Twitter feeds, you're gonna want to follow me there.
Speaker 1: And then, last but not least, for whatever reason, you
Speaker 1: guys miss one of these videos and you can't get
Speaker 1: back over to YouTube to finish them. You can find
Speaker 1: them wherever you get your podcasts. Under Hoops tonight. And
Speaker 1: on that note, let's talk some basketball. So when we're
Speaker 1: talking about who's gonna win the NBA title, we kind
Speaker 1: of are narrowing it down to four teams and I
Speaker 1: feel like most people probably agree with me there. And
Speaker 1: we also got a similar type of feedback from the
Speaker 1: NBA g M survey which picked these same four teams
Speaker 1: as the team's most likely to win the title. That
Speaker 1: would be the Warriors, the Bucks, the Celtics, and the Clippers. Now,
Speaker 1: to be clear up front, all four of those teams
Speaker 1: have flaws. This is not the two thousand seventeen Warriors,
Speaker 1: the two thousand eighteen Warriors. This is not a clear
Speaker 1: cut favorite type of season. This is a season where
Speaker 1: we have multiple teams that are on that top tier
Speaker 1: of the league. The Warriors in the Bucks, for instance,
Speaker 1: don't quite have as much total roster talent as the
Speaker 1: Clippers and the Celtics do. In my opinion. But the
Speaker 1: Clippers and the Celtics, they don't have Janis and Steph,
Speaker 1: the two best players in the entire world, so their
Speaker 1: top tier talent it's not quite as good. I think
Speaker 1: the Warriors core lineups have some undersized perimeter defenders, which
Speaker 1: can lead to specific problems in specific matchups, although they
Speaker 1: managed to get by past that problem this past season.
Speaker 1: The Bucks have pretty unreliable role players spotting up on
Speaker 1: the perimeter. That really hurt them against Boston. That was
Speaker 1: their biggest weakness last year. The Celtics, there two stars,
Speaker 1: Jalen Brown and Jayson Tatum, are both pretty like pretty
Speaker 1: unreliable decision makers, right like, you don't trust them in
Speaker 1: big moments not to make, you know, crippling mistakes. So
Speaker 1: that's the Celtics big problem. Then we go to the Clippers,
Speaker 1: and I think particularly their role player wings, the wings
Speaker 1: they have around Kawai and Paul George are a little
Speaker 1: bit slow footed, which could put them into some problems
Speaker 1: against teams that are quicker on the perimeter. So when
Speaker 1: I'm looking at those top four teams, they all have flaws,
Speaker 1: they all have strengths. There's no clear cut team that's
Speaker 1: above all of them. So who is the safest bet?
Speaker 1: You had to pick one of those four teams and
Speaker 1: the Warriors. And I've talked about this a lot when
Speaker 1: we when we had them number one in our power rankings,
Speaker 1: and we talked about them during the preseason. The reason
Speaker 1: why I picked the Warriors as who I think is
Speaker 1: going to win the title this year is they have
Speaker 1: the best combination of factors that make them the safest bet.
Speaker 1: They have the best combination of upper management should they
Speaker 1: need to sign, buy out players or make a trade
Speaker 1: in the middle of the season. A competent coaching staff
Speaker 1: that caters their philosophy towards the roster as opposed to
Speaker 1: their you know, stubborn ideologies about basketball. They also cater
Speaker 1: their ideologies towards things that work in the modern m
Speaker 1: b A. I also trust their coaching staff more than
Speaker 1: the other three teams on that list to make pivotal
Speaker 1: adjustments in a playoff series, like putting Draymond Green on
Speaker 1: Jalen Brown for instance. Those kinds of things. I trust
Speaker 1: their coaching staff the most. They're superstar talent. I'm getting
Speaker 1: Steph Curry in this case, who I believe is the
Speaker 1: second best player in the world quality players. And then
Speaker 1: this is the big one, continuity and experience, knowing how
Speaker 1: to play together and knowing how to win playoff series
Speaker 1: because they've won so damn many of them over the years.
Speaker 1: They've won coming from behind, they've won in dominant fashion.
Speaker 1: They've won in two thousand, fourteen, fifteen, they've won in
Speaker 1: two thousand and twenty two. Right, they just have When
Speaker 1: we're talking about all of those factors, all of those
Speaker 1: teams that we just mentioned has strengths or weaknesses in
Speaker 1: certain parts of those factors. But the Warriors are the
Speaker 1: best of those four in all of them combined. If
Speaker 1: I'm looking for the best combination of management, coaching, star talent,
Speaker 1: role players, continuity and experience, the Warriors are just the
Speaker 1: safest bet. That doesn't mean they will win, but it
Speaker 1: makes them the safest bet out of those four. So
Speaker 1: I'm picking the Warriors. To be clear, right here, the
Speaker 1: eve of the start of the season, I am picking
Speaker 1: the Warriors to win the NBA titles. So who will
Speaker 1: win the West? Obviously the Warriors probably over the Clippers
Speaker 1: in the Western Conference finals would bet my guest, But
Speaker 1: who knows how injuries will play a role. In seating
Speaker 1: as things go along. In the end, I've always viewed
Speaker 1: the Clippers as the biggest threat out West to beat
Speaker 1: the Warriors because they have such great perimeter size and
Speaker 1: the Warrior's specific weakness is perimeter size on the defensive
Speaker 1: end of the floor. So even though I view the
Speaker 1: Clippers as their biggest threat and I view them as
Speaker 1: the team that will play play against him in the
Speaker 1: Western Conference Finals, I think that the one of the
Speaker 1: biggest reasons why I picked the Warriors over the Clippers
Speaker 1: in that matchup is in the end, I think I
Speaker 1: think it'll be the gap in foot speed that kills them.
Speaker 1: We talked about this, but when you look at you know,
Speaker 1: the Clippers are known for this team being this team
Speaker 1: that has a ton of wings that can guard multiple
Speaker 1: positions and do multiple things on the offensive end of
Speaker 1: the floor. Right, So, if I've got you know, and
Speaker 1: I need to get past Kawai and Paul George for
Speaker 1: a second, i gotta start looking at Marcus Morris and
Speaker 1: Nick Patum and Robert Covington right like, I'm getting into
Speaker 1: this list of these kind of older wings, and yes
Speaker 1: they can guard multiple positions. Yes they have a history
Speaker 1: of being good role players at their positions, but they're
Speaker 1: just they're starting to get to the point where they're
Speaker 1: a little bit more slow footed than they used to be.
Speaker 1: And particularly when you're guarding the Warriors, who are gonna
Speaker 1: put you through a plethora of actions during every single game,
Speaker 1: way more actions than any other team is going to run,
Speaker 1: and then so much cutting and running off the screens
Speaker 1: and covering a ton of ground. They're a player movement offense.
Speaker 1: With how much they move around, it's going to be
Speaker 1: particularly tough for the Clippers to keep up with them
Speaker 1: with their slower feet. So that would be why I
Speaker 1: picked the Warriors over the Clippers to win the Western Conference.
Speaker 1: So who win the East? So this is my big
Speaker 1: switch up from the power rankings. Um again, I don't
Speaker 1: I don't see the point in being married to a pick.
Speaker 1: You should react to new information or if you have
Speaker 1: a change of heart, you should embrace that. In my opinion,
Speaker 1: I had originally picked Boston because of the Malcolm Broadden acquisition.
Speaker 1: I thought it addressed their ball handling concerns and I
Speaker 1: thought that it kind of it was an indicator of
Speaker 1: philosophy that I like to which is push your chips
Speaker 1: in the middle. Do your best to be the best
Speaker 1: that you can be because other teams are consistently getting
Speaker 1: better around you. It bothered me that the Bucks really
Speaker 1: didn't do anything this summer, and then the Celtics were like, Hey,
Speaker 1: we stuck at ball handling. Let's go get Malcolm Brogden.
Speaker 1: He can dribble the basketball. I liked that about Boston
Speaker 1: and that's why I picked them. However, I really don't
Speaker 1: want to be sitting on my couch in May watching
Speaker 1: the Eastern Conference Finals feeling like an idiot for picking
Speaker 1: against the Honice. That's kind of where I'm at right now.
Speaker 1: I think he's the best player in the world on
Speaker 1: a tier by himself. I think he's made strides as
Speaker 1: a passer, particularly that made him unstoppable on the offensive
Speaker 1: end in a way that he didn't used to be.
Speaker 1: And then I also think he's the best defensive player
Speaker 1: in the world. So from that standpoint especially, and I
Speaker 1: gotta give them a little bit more credit. I said
Speaker 1: that the Celtics addressed their biggest weakness, which was ball
Speaker 1: handling right well, the Bucks had a big weakness in
Speaker 1: off ball shooting. Their inability to knock down shots when
Speaker 1: the Celtics loaded up on Janice, particularly at the end
Speaker 1: of that series, really killed them. And I don't think
Speaker 1: we're factoring in enough to how the return of Chris
Speaker 1: Middleton taking you know, forty playoff minutes a night from
Speaker 1: one of those weaker spot up players, and the influx
Speaker 1: of guys like Joe Ingles for instance, as significant upgrades
Speaker 1: at that specific flaw that they had last year. So
Speaker 1: even though a lot of the things with my brain
Speaker 1: are pointing me towards Boston, my gut is telling me
Speaker 1: don't pick against Nice. And so from that standpoint, before
Speaker 1: the season, before we've seen any basketball, I am going
Speaker 1: to be picking the Bucks over the Celtics to win
Speaker 1: the Eastern Conference, which means I'm expecting a Warrior Is
Speaker 1: Bucks NBA Finals, which I think would be most NBA
Speaker 1: fans dream because it's such an interesting matchup. So I
Speaker 1: wanted to spend a couple of minutes talking about that
Speaker 1: particular matchup. So, first of all, it starts with Draymond
Speaker 1: verse Janice. We have, you know, if I talked a
Speaker 1: lot about, you know, over the summer when we were
Speaker 1: talking about player rankings, we were talking about Janice and
Speaker 1: how you know, uniquely, he just destroys your stereotypical perimeter defenders.
Speaker 1: Right Like, if I was ranking the best perimeter defenders
Speaker 1: in the world, I've got you know, Ben Simmons, Andrew Wiggins,
Speaker 1: Jason Tatum, Michail Bridges, maybe a couple other guys. You know,
Speaker 1: outside of Ben Simmons, who is who actually has done
Speaker 1: a pretty decent job on your Honest, those other three
Speaker 1: guys are are hopeless guarding. Like if you put Micail Bridges,
Speaker 1: Jason Tatum, or j Leon Brown on HONEST for a
Speaker 1: playoff series, they would get obliterated. And it's just kind
Speaker 1: of the unique matchup problem that Janice causes because of
Speaker 1: how big and strong he is. Right Well, if I was,
Speaker 1: I talked a lot over the summer, if you were
Speaker 1: building a defender in a lab to guard Janice, the
Speaker 1: two guys that came to mind to me were Lebron
Speaker 1: James and Draymond Green because they are incredibly strong for
Speaker 1: their specific position, and they have the unique ability through
Speaker 1: instincts and crafty nous to even defend above what their
Speaker 1: strength level is. That's what made Lebron capable of guarding
Speaker 1: all five positions when he was in his prime and
Speaker 1: still a little bit to this day. And Draymond Green,
Speaker 1: even though he's you know my height, is one of
Speaker 1: the best defensive players of all time because of his
Speaker 1: unique combination of strength, low center of gravity, instincts, the
Speaker 1: ability to slide his feet. The other big thing that
Speaker 1: would make that tough for you, Honest in particular, is
Speaker 1: j Honest would have to kind of beat him with
Speaker 1: his brain as much as he does with his body,
Speaker 1: because over the course of that series, Draymond's gonna pick
Speaker 1: up on his go to moves. If he gets beat
Speaker 1: on a specific move, he's gonna make a mental note
Speaker 1: of it. Draymond loves that chess match of defense and
Speaker 1: identify little things that he can fix and rectify to
Speaker 1: become a better defender over the course of a series.
Speaker 1: That specific matchup, that Draymond versus Janice matchup would be
Speaker 1: such an incredibly interesting basketball matchup to watch. And then
Speaker 1: the other big part of that series that would be
Speaker 1: tough is the traditional drop coverage that Milwaukee would inevitably
Speaker 1: run against Steph Curry. And we literally saw that against
Speaker 1: Boston last year. They baited Steph into pull up jump
Speaker 1: shooting when he's the best pull up jump shooter in
Speaker 1: the world. I can't remember the exact numbers, but the
Speaker 1: Warriors averaged around like twenty twenty one pull up jump
Speaker 1: shots per game last year in the regular season, and
Speaker 1: that pumped up against Boston. Because they're not stubborn. They
Speaker 1: will do what they have to do to beat your
Speaker 1: particular coverages, and they have the guys to do it
Speaker 1: in this case Steph Curry. And then obviously we've talked
Speaker 1: a lot about how Jordan Pool has turned into a
Speaker 1: really good, high volume pull up jump shooter as well.
Speaker 1: It's two incredibly different teams and whichever style controls the
Speaker 1: game will end up winning. And again, I'd pick Golden
Speaker 1: State for all the reasons we just talked about. They're
Speaker 1: the best combination of management and coaching, star talent, role players,
Speaker 1: community experience, all that stuff. They're the safe for bet.
Speaker 1: But man, would that be an interesting NBA Finals series?
Speaker 1: And I hope that this is the year that we
Speaker 1: get to see it. So what team do I expect
Speaker 1: to overachieve the most? I'm going with Philly. Now, everyone's
Speaker 1: pretty low Unfilly for a bunch of obvious reasons, right,
Speaker 1: Like James Harden's playoff history, which is well documented and
Speaker 1: it really is a problem. He's one of the biggest
Speaker 1: playoff underachievers relative to his regular season success in NBA history.
Speaker 1: It's a legitimate concern with him. Right. We also have
Speaker 1: James Harden's recent decline. He just hasn't looked much like
Speaker 1: himself at all over the last couple of years. Then
Speaker 1: we have with Joel Embiide his injury history. It's always hurt,
Speaker 1: and then he kind of has some bad body language
Speaker 1: stuff when things go south in the playoffs. And then
Speaker 1: we have to Rivers, who also has a history of
Speaker 1: blowing playoffs series. So we had this like list of
Speaker 1: of obvious red flags that are kind of deflecting a
Speaker 1: lot of attention away from the Sixers. And there's some
Speaker 1: legitimacy to that, like, for instance, I don't have them
Speaker 1: in my top tier of contenders, but I think they're
Speaker 1: just as talented, which we'll talk about in a second.
Speaker 1: So obviously I'm factoring that in as well, and we
Speaker 1: should We should not gloss over that stuff entirely, but
Speaker 1: we do in a lot of cases like this overlook
Speaker 1: the good that comes with the Sixers. For one, they're
Speaker 1: every bit as talented is the best teams in the league.
Speaker 1: I would argue they had the most talented top four
Speaker 1: out of any team in the league. If you've got
Speaker 1: Joel and B, James Harden, Tobias Harris and Tyres Maxie,
Speaker 1: you're I you'd be hard pressed to find a top
Speaker 1: four that's as good. There are other good top fours
Speaker 1: in the leagues, and I again, I would pick the
Speaker 1: top four teams in the league as better teams than
Speaker 1: the Sixers, but in terms of talent, they're right up
Speaker 1: there in that conversation. And I also expect James Harden
Speaker 1: to have his best season since two thousand nineteen. We've
Speaker 1: talked about this a ton over the course of the summer,
Speaker 1: but I just think he's I think that I think
Speaker 1: that his lack of success over the last couple of
Speaker 1: years has caused him to come to terms with some
Speaker 1: of the realities of his body changing as he's getting older.
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna be in better shape this year.
Speaker 1: I think his hamstring will hold up as a result.
Speaker 1: I think over the course of the season he'll get
Speaker 1: an even better shape, and I think he'll regain some
Speaker 1: of that burst he's like he's like my age, he's
Speaker 1: like thirty two years old. He's not. This dude is
Speaker 1: not This is not a washed up old veteran. Yes,
Speaker 1: he's lived a hard life, but there's lots of basketball
Speaker 1: left in James Harden's legs. And if he can get
Speaker 1: his conditioning back, I don't see any reason why he
Speaker 1: can't have a bounce back season. And then anytime you
Speaker 1: have a player the talent level of Joel Embiid, who
Speaker 1: I think is the eighth best player in the world,
Speaker 1: you can't ever discount a healthy Joel embiat playoff run
Speaker 1: and how and if he's dominant enough, how that could
Speaker 1: put the Sixers in position to win a lot of
Speaker 1: a lot of big games. So they're really just say,
Speaker 1: not so long shot to win the East. That's why
Speaker 1: I have them as the team I expect to overachieve.
Speaker 1: All right, the team I expect underachieve. I am going
Speaker 1: with the Suns. So, first of all, they benefited from
Speaker 1: a great deal of injury luck in the playoffs. They
Speaker 1: beat the Lakers without Anthony Davis, they beat the Nuggets
Speaker 1: without Jamal Murray, they beat the Clippers without Kawhi Leonard,
Speaker 1: and then they beat the Bucks twice when Janice was
Speaker 1: his first two games back from a hyper extended knee,
Speaker 1: and then Joannice just literally ran rough shot over them
Speaker 1: and beat them four times in a row. But we
Speaker 1: flowed directly from that into two, which was a season
Speaker 1: where the West was historically weak because a bunch of
Speaker 1: teams were down for various reasons. Clippers were down because
Speaker 1: of Kauai, the Lakers were down because the Lebron and
Speaker 1: a d getting hurt all the time. The Nuggets were
Speaker 1: down because Michael Porter Jr. And Jamal Murray were out there.
Speaker 1: Just it was just a week Western Conference in that
Speaker 1: particular year, and they won a ton of regular season games,
Speaker 1: but then they got into the playoffs and looked somewhat
Speaker 1: less than dominant against a really good, exciting, young New
Speaker 1: Orleans Pelicans team, and then they lost in really embarrassing fashion,
Speaker 1: humiliating fashion to the Dallas Mavericks. So there's some kind
Speaker 1: of like weird residual energy from that. Then we have
Speaker 1: DeAndre Ayton's contract situation that was very strange. Clearly wanted
Speaker 1: to go to the Pacers. He has beef with Monty Williams,
Speaker 1: which may or may not get resolved at some point,
Speaker 1: Chris Paul is turning into one of the oldest players
Speaker 1: in the league, and he's under size, which can always
Speaker 1: be that can be an issue for younger players letter
Speaker 1: let alone players in his position. And then just in general,
Speaker 1: the West is much much better this year. We've got
Speaker 1: the return of the Nuggets to full strength, the return
Speaker 1: of the Lakers to their version of full strength, the
Speaker 1: return of the Clippers the full strength the Minnesota Timberwolves
Speaker 1: made a big time trade. They have more talent than
Speaker 1: they did last year. Then we've got young teams like
Speaker 1: New Orleans coming up that I expect to capitalize on
Speaker 1: some of their success from the end of the year.
Speaker 1: Last year, I seriously considered New Orleans for my overachieving team.
Speaker 1: Sacramento uh with the acquisition of Kevin Herder um uh
Speaker 1: and I'm blanking on his name right now. But the
Speaker 1: young uh, the young wing that they drafted, the that
Speaker 1: I really like, who's been killing it in preseason. They're
Speaker 1: an interesting team. The West is much much tougher this year.
Speaker 1: What does that translate to? It means night in and
Speaker 1: night out. Keegan Murray, by the way, is his name? Sorry?
Speaker 1: I get terrible with names. Randomly. I'm like, like, have
Speaker 1: a good memory sometimes and horrible memory others. It's really frustrating.
Speaker 1: But night in and night out, the schedule in the
Speaker 1: Western Conference is just gonna be a lot tougher than
Speaker 1: it was last year. Did you know that last year
Speaker 1: the Sons won thirty three of their games requiring crunch
Speaker 1: time to win, which was most in the league by
Speaker 1: a mile. The Raptors were second with twenty six. What
Speaker 1: that means is, yes, the Suns were dominant, but these
Speaker 1: games were close, and we're competitive, and they were winning
Speaker 1: often because Chris Paul just made enough plays at the
Speaker 1: end of the game or Devin Booker just made enough
Speaker 1: plays at the end of the game. That means they're
Speaker 1: not blowing teams out. This wasn't the Boston Celtics. The
Speaker 1: Boston Celtics beat the crap out of everybody last year.
Speaker 1: The Suns were winning in close games. So when you
Speaker 1: have a night and night out tougher schedule, some weird
Speaker 1: baggage kind of lingering around the team, and a team
Speaker 1: that already was thriving on other teams getting hurt and
Speaker 1: or winning in tight game environments at the end, there's
Speaker 1: just a lot of reasons why this could swing the
Speaker 1: other way, it's more more accurately, I'd say it wouldn't
Speaker 1: take much for this to swing the other way. Now.
Speaker 1: They're still super talented, talented enough to win a whole
Speaker 1: lot of games, even if Chris Paul misses time, even
Speaker 1: if Devin Booker misses time. But with the drama uderneath
Speaker 1: the surface, it won't take much for this team to fracture.
Speaker 1: And when they fracture, they lose the buy in. When
Speaker 1: they lose the buy in, the defensive end slips and
Speaker 1: the offensive ball movement slips. Look at what happened to
Speaker 1: the Lakers last year when they didn't buy into Frank Vogel.
Speaker 1: Even with as much talent as they have, it's not
Speaker 1: completely unrealistic that they could go and thirty seven because
Speaker 1: some of those games don't go their way, and then
Speaker 1: they're in the West this year. That might be a
Speaker 1: playing team, which is a really far cry from being
Speaker 1: the undisputed best team in the regular season last year.
Speaker 1: So I have the Sons as the team I expected underachieve.
Speaker 1: All Right, who I think is gonna win M v P.
Speaker 1: I'm picking you, honest. The Luca pick just doesn't make
Speaker 1: much sense to me. I I do not understand why
Speaker 1: he's so heavily favored. The Dallas Mavericks had a weird offseason.
Speaker 1: They lost one of the primary ball handlers, didn't get
Speaker 1: another one in return. Christian Wood is now going to
Speaker 1: come off the bench for them. It's just it's a
Speaker 1: funky team. I like them. Still is a playoff threat,
Speaker 1: but I do not see them as a team that's
Speaker 1: going to win enough regular season games to win an
Speaker 1: MVP this year. And then when you look at Janice,
Speaker 1: it's kind of shaping up to be the perfect set
Speaker 1: of circumstances for him to win an MVP. First of all,
Speaker 1: his team is gonna win a ton of games, and
Speaker 1: they're gonna be one of the top seeds. That's just
Speaker 1: a reality of the Bucks roster. He'll put up ridiculous
Speaker 1: counting stats, like he always does. He'll put up ridiculous
Speaker 1: advanced metrics, the catch balls and stuff, which I don't
Speaker 1: personally care about, but there are a lot of MVP
Speaker 1: voters who do, so you have to factor that in here.
Speaker 1: He's the best defensive player in basketball. MVP voters love that.
Speaker 1: They love players who play both ends of the floor.
Speaker 1: He tries hard every night. That's almost that's incredibly important
Speaker 1: to m VP because m VP voters have always discounted
Speaker 1: the veterans, the guys who've been around around a long time,
Speaker 1: because they don't try hard often enough. And then, most importantly,
Speaker 1: he hasn't won an MVP S so it will be
Speaker 1: fresh to the voters. You won't pay at tax, that
Speaker 1: Lebron tax that used to talk about all those years ago,
Speaker 1: where it's just like you're so dominant for so long
Speaker 1: that like your bar is just different than everyone else,
Speaker 1: and a lot of your success goes kind of under
Speaker 1: the table. I think, I think Johannas and I believe
Speaker 1: that FanDuel he's plus seven hundred, although the odd deadline
Speaker 1: might have moved since I last looked. But I just
Speaker 1: think I think he's I think he's shaping up for
Speaker 1: just a textbook revenge campaign, and everybody just remembers how
Speaker 1: dominant he is. The Bucks win a ton of games,
Speaker 1: they're the one seed in the East or the two
Speaker 1: seeds in the East. He's clearly the best player in
Speaker 1: the world, and everyone just finally relents and gives him
Speaker 1: an m v P. So I think Janice is actually
Speaker 1: a really really smart bet, especially that kind of odds
Speaker 1: to win the m v P this year. Um, all right,
Speaker 1: last thing before we get out of here, I wanted
Speaker 1: to spend a couple of minutes talking about the Lakers
Speaker 1: opening schedule because this is insane because they're the team
Speaker 1: that I think has the most up in the air
Speaker 1: and the early phases of the season and a team
Speaker 1: that has really divergent paths. Because the Lakers have like
Speaker 1: a long shot chance to win the title, right if
Speaker 1: some things shape out. They make a trade with Russ,
Speaker 1: they get a couple of good role players back Lebron
Speaker 1: and a d both played like top five players, Like, yeah,
Speaker 1: you're you're dumb if you don't think they can win
Speaker 1: a title of things go that way, But they also
Speaker 1: have like a bunch of different ways that it could
Speaker 1: go south and they could miss the playoffs entirely, you know,
Speaker 1: not even necessarily just because of injuries. Right, So they
Speaker 1: have like a wide range of outcomes. But the the
Speaker 1: I do think it's really interesting how tough their schedule
Speaker 1: is to start the year, which is very different from
Speaker 1: last year. Last year, I remember they their schedule was
Speaker 1: just stacked with cupcakes for the first basically like month
Speaker 1: of the season, and the Lakers still underperformed against that
Speaker 1: particular schedule. So for starters start the season against the
Speaker 1: Warriors on Tuesday, and then they turn around and play
Speaker 1: the Clippers on Thursday. They'll be significant underdogs in both games.
Speaker 1: They could play well and go oh and two in
Speaker 1: both of those games. Then they play the Blazers. That's
Speaker 1: a game they should win, but it'll be a tough game.
Speaker 1: Then their next four are Nuggets, Wolves, Nuggets, Pelicans. That's
Speaker 1: four really tough games, and two of them are on
Speaker 1: the road, particularly those first two against the Nuggets and
Speaker 1: Wolves are on the road. And then three of their
Speaker 1: next six after that are against the Calves, Clippers, and Nets,
Speaker 1: three teams that I had very high in my power rankings.
Speaker 1: So they will be like and again, even if you
Speaker 1: believe in the Lakers ceiling, which I do, even if
Speaker 1: you believe in that, they're at a massive continuity disadvantage
Speaker 1: right now. They did not get a ton of time
Speaker 1: playing together in preseason because Anthony Davis was dealing with
Speaker 1: some back stuff and they had some important players a wing.
Speaker 1: I expect him to play a lot in Troy Brown Jr.
Speaker 1: Was out with injury for a while. Dennis Shrewder was
Speaker 1: dealing with a visa situation and then he just broke
Speaker 1: his finger thumb or something like that, so he's gonna
Speaker 1: be out for a while. Like they had, they they
Speaker 1: are going to be at a massive continuity disadvantage in
Speaker 1: every single one of those games. They're building this from
Speaker 1: scratch essentially, so they could very easily be under five
Speaker 1: hundred through their team games. That schedule that I just
Speaker 1: laid out for you is their first thirteen games. There's
Speaker 1: a version of that story where they beat the three
Speaker 1: bad because I think they have two matchups with the
Speaker 1: Pistons and like one with the Spurs in there, and
Speaker 1: then maybe they beat the Blazers. There's four wins. But
Speaker 1: what about those other those other nine games there? What
Speaker 1: if they go what if they win three of those? Right? Like,
Speaker 1: there's a version of this where they could be seven
Speaker 1: and six, six and seven. They could very easily be
Speaker 1: under five d through thirteen games, even if they play
Speaker 1: well because of the continuity disadvantage and because of how
Speaker 1: difficult the schedule is. Now For me personally, I would
Speaker 1: preach patients there and I would say, look, you have
Speaker 1: a really tough schedule. You don't have continuity. You need
Speaker 1: to weather this storm a little bit. You'll hit your
Speaker 1: stride later on in the season. That would be what
Speaker 1: I would say. But this is the Lakers, a team
Speaker 1: that's under a great deal of pressure, that has this
Speaker 1: Russell Westbrook situation hanging over them. Now, Russell Westbrook's coming
Speaker 1: off the bench. I've heard from people that are involved
Speaker 1: with the team that it probably as a precursor. They's
Speaker 1: kind of like a last chance, Like if he can't
Speaker 1: succeed in this role, then they would consider sending him
Speaker 1: home before until a trade gets found. So, like, the
Speaker 1: reality is is this this first thirteen games, with the
Speaker 1: combination of the drama and and the difficulty of the schedule,
Speaker 1: things could go south pretty quickly. And so there's two
Speaker 1: ways that it could go from there. One, it could
Speaker 1: go them into feeling enough urgency to finally trade Russ,
Speaker 1: which would be good. But the flip side of that
Speaker 1: is it could also go them into thinking that this
Speaker 1: team is a lost cause. And if they get if
Speaker 1: they get convinced that the team that this team is
Speaker 1: a lost cause, they could decide to do nothing. And
Speaker 1: if that's the case, then you know, now you're punting
Speaker 1: a season of Lebron James and your twenty in a
Speaker 1: season of Anthony Davis under contract in his twenties. I
Speaker 1: think it would be a huge mistake because, especially these
Speaker 1: early season losses would be just as much a byproduct
Speaker 1: of continuity as it would be about talent. The big
Speaker 1: swing factor there. The one that we have that we've
Speaker 1: got to keep an eye on is how good do
Speaker 1: Lebron James and Anthony Davis look? Because if you're six
Speaker 1: and seven, but Lebron and a D look fantastic, that way,
Speaker 1: that will go them into trading the picks and getting
Speaker 1: role players around them before it's too late. But if
Speaker 1: Lebron and a D don't look great, it could go
Speaker 1: the opposite direction and that could be the everything they
Speaker 1: need to feel like this team is worth punting on.
Speaker 1: But yeah, it's gonna be interesting watching the Lakers to
Speaker 1: start the season. There it could go south quickly without
Speaker 1: tough their schedule is. But those are my picks to
Speaker 1: start this season. Obviously, I'm not married to anything. That's
Speaker 1: just where I'm at right now. Um and again with predictions,
Speaker 1: and I tell you guys this all the time, predictions
Speaker 1: are just predictions and their guesses. If I was right
Speaker 1: all the time, I wouldn't be doing this. I'd be
Speaker 1: in Vegas betting on these things. And uh, I don't
Speaker 1: know many professional gamblers out there, because it really is
Speaker 1: that difficult to predict sports. That's why we love sports
Speaker 1: so much, so much as up the air. UM. But
Speaker 1: I'm always gonna give you guys my predictions because I'm
Speaker 1: not afraid of being wrong, and I'm just gonna do
Speaker 1: my best and base it on my analysis and base
Speaker 1: it on the things that I see on tape. UM.
Speaker 1: But I'm very, very excited just to give you guys
Speaker 1: an idea of the schedule coming up again. UM Tomorrow night,
Speaker 1: right after Lakers Warriors will be going live Wednesday. Keep
Speaker 1: an eye during the day for a film breakdown on
Speaker 1: Tuesday night's games with footage that's on my Twitter feed.
Speaker 1: Thursday night will be a combination of instant reaction to
Speaker 1: Lakers Clippers in the other National TV game from that night,
Speaker 1: as well as breakdown of Wednesday nights games. We'll get
Speaker 1: to see the I believe the Nets play that night
Speaker 1: on Wednesday night as well, so live show Tuesday Night
Speaker 1: show during the day on Wednesday, live show, Thursday night
Speaker 1: show during the day on Friday. That's our kind of
Speaker 1: schedule for the rest of the week. As always, I
Speaker 1: sincerely appreciate you guys support. I am so so so
Speaker 1: excited to embark on this long nine month journey with
Speaker 1: you guys and to see what we can build this into.
Speaker 1: I appreciate you guys so much, and I will see
Speaker 1: you tomorrow night for the season opener. I'm stoked. It's
Speaker 1: gonna be fine. Let's do it. The volume