WEBVTT - Robinhood Shares Take A Slide

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanobek. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. We went through some of

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<v Speaker 1>the headlines when it comes to returning to work. Paul

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<v Speaker 1>Wells Fargo pushing its return to office plan to October.

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<v Speaker 1>Florida's hospitals here in the US have been strained by

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<v Speaker 1>delusion COVID patients UH Closer to home here in New

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<v Speaker 1>York City cases are spiking as well. Let's get an

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<v Speaker 1>international perspective, a perspective from around the world. Joining us

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<v Speaker 1>now is Dr Chizuba we Nady and associate scientists at

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<v Speaker 1>the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All so

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<v Speaker 1>the Nigeria, Country director at the Johns Hopkins International Vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>Access Center, Dr Wenatti joins us from Nigeria. Thanks so

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<v Speaker 1>much for joining us. How are you doing. I'm fine,

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you, It's great to be here. Well, it's great

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<v Speaker 1>to have you on the show. Give us we we

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<v Speaker 1>do focus. We have been focusing a lot on what's

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<v Speaker 1>been happening here in the United States. UM, give us

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<v Speaker 1>an update from Nigeria, because according to the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker,

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<v Speaker 1>only one percent of the population has been inoculated. That's right,

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<v Speaker 1>only one percent of Nigerian's have received the vaccine. And

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<v Speaker 1>that one percent is courtesy of the Kovacs facility. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>We received three point nine million doses way back in February,

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<v Speaker 1>and the government ruled out the vaccination program quite effectively

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<v Speaker 1>and used of all the vaccines. And I have to

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<v Speaker 1>say that one of the concerns with the vaccines is

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<v Speaker 1>the risk of expiration, and so the government was able

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<v Speaker 1>to roll it out without any single vaccine expiring. UM

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<v Speaker 1>and and that really speaks to the need and the

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<v Speaker 1>demand for the vaccine. There is a latent demand for

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<v Speaker 1>these vaccines. Despite the fact that we have heard about

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<v Speaker 1>vaccine hesitancy. There are some people who are heasy, that

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<v Speaker 1>for sure, but there are still quite a number of

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<v Speaker 1>people who want these vaccines. UM there is now a

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<v Speaker 1>new batch of vaccine that we just received m August

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<v Speaker 1>first four million doses from the US government actually through

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<v Speaker 1>recovered facility, and so plants are on their way right

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<v Speaker 1>now to UM get those vaccines rolled out and people vaccinated.

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<v Speaker 1>But as you can see, four million doses will only

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<v Speaker 1>bring us up to one two percent vaccinated. So there's

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<v Speaker 1>still quite a lot of on net need for vaccination,

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<v Speaker 1>for COVID vaccination in Nigeria and indeed in all of

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<v Speaker 1>Africa and many lower middle income countries. So talking on it,

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<v Speaker 1>that's kind of where I wanted to go. What's what's

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<v Speaker 1>the plan or what's expectation in Nigeria and across Africa

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<v Speaker 1>for maybe the intermediate term over the next six months

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of percentage vaccinated, how high do you think

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<v Speaker 1>you can get that number and over what time frame?

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<v Speaker 1>It's very hard to say because as you know, most

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<v Speaker 1>of the global vaccine supplies have been locked up by

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<v Speaker 1>you know, reach out countries who got in there first,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know they the manufacturing and some of SUCU

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<v Speaker 1>companies to produce vaccines for them and secure those vaccine doses.

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<v Speaker 1>But now we're seeing more and more of the rich

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<v Speaker 1>countries UM donating some of their doses to the COVAC facility.

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<v Speaker 1>We know that the COVACT facility your mart to of

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<v Speaker 1>the population of the countries that they would provide vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>to cover those and that would be over a period

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<v Speaker 1>of um you know, from from February that was going

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<v Speaker 1>to be an over a period of one year, one

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<v Speaker 1>and a half years. So in the next six months

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<v Speaker 1>m we are hoping that we should be able to

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<v Speaker 1>get enough vaccines from both the KOVAC Facility as well

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<v Speaker 1>as the African Union who is making our invent also

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<v Speaker 1>to provide some vaccines UM to to try and get

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<v Speaker 1>to that. But we're not sure for if we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to get to because right now the global vaccine supply

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<v Speaker 1>is in very very short um supply and UM the

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<v Speaker 1>prospects for producing enough to to feed the world or

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<v Speaker 1>to satisfy the world need is actually quite a bleak.

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<v Speaker 1>You know. Well, one thing that I've been thinking about

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<v Speaker 1>a lot and look in recent months is the fact

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<v Speaker 1>that in the United States we are so wealthy when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to vaccines, and there are so many Americans

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<v Speaker 1>right now who are sick because they did not take

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<v Speaker 1>a vaccine. And around the world there are so many

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<v Speaker 1>people who would get in line to get the vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>that is just sitting there at a drug store waiting

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<v Speaker 1>for an American to come and get it. From a

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<v Speaker 1>from the perspective of a public health expert, a physician,

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<v Speaker 1>and somebody who's living in a country where only one

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<v Speaker 1>percent is vaccinated, what goes through your head when you

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<v Speaker 1>see that? Yeah, I I I find that. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>that's that's unfortunate really because, um, there are many people

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<v Speaker 1>elsewhere who would line up, like you say, for these vaccines.

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<v Speaker 1>But but that is that is the reality in in

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<v Speaker 1>in the US, and I think it will also be

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<v Speaker 1>the reality in now and middle income countries when we

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<v Speaker 1>do have enough vaccines. There will in every population there

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<v Speaker 1>will be some people who are hesitant. Right, And so

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<v Speaker 1>US has reached that state where you have you have

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<v Speaker 1>satisfied those who will take the vaccine immediately, and you're

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<v Speaker 1>now in the in the phase where you need to, um,

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<v Speaker 1>you need to encourage age those who are still on

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<v Speaker 1>the sense about the vaccine. You encourage them to get

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<v Speaker 1>the vaccine. But there there are some people who will

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<v Speaker 1>not get the vaccine, and that's that's the truth. I

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<v Speaker 1>think the US vaccine mandates. That's a hot topic here

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<v Speaker 1>in the United States and I guess other developed markets

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<v Speaker 1>that have relatively high vaccination rates. Do you think that's

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<v Speaker 1>something that should be enforced either at the you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the government level, or maybe just at a private level.

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<v Speaker 1>If you want to come into my restaurant, you've got

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<v Speaker 1>to prove that you've been vaccinated. Personally, I think so. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>with the way the COVID transmission is happening and the

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<v Speaker 1>risk of of viral variants that you know, could cost

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<v Speaker 1>more harm than good. UM, I think that clearly we

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<v Speaker 1>if we have more vaccination, is going to slow the

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<v Speaker 1>spread of of the of the virus and the variants

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<v Speaker 1>and reduce the odds that even more dangerous variant will emerge.

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<v Speaker 1>And that's something we really need to worry about, UM

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<v Speaker 1>right now. I think many employers want to see that

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<v Speaker 1>their employee show their vascination cards. So at Hopkins, for example, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>there's no mandates per se, but if you're not vaccinated,

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<v Speaker 1>you have to be tested often and so you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's still an inconvenient for you to get tested maybe

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<v Speaker 1>every other day or wearing masks consistently. So I think

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<v Speaker 1>that they definitely has to do something to be done

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<v Speaker 1>if either there's evactive mandates in place or there is

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<v Speaker 1>stricter and more regular testing, because we don't want an

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<v Speaker 1>individual's freedom to infringe on the health of the public

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<v Speaker 1>or the community, So that sense of responsibility must be upheld.

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<v Speaker 1>What is the best way to instill that sense of

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<v Speaker 1>responsibility in someone who says, well, forcing me to get

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<v Speaker 1>a vaccine is a threat to my individual liberty. The

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<v Speaker 1>best way I think is is to put the responsibility

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<v Speaker 1>back on them right to not put the public at risk.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think what they're doing in in in France

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<v Speaker 1>is if you're not vaccinated, then you stay home. Those

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<v Speaker 1>who are vaccinated now have the liberty to go out

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<v Speaker 1>because we're not going to close the economy down for

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<v Speaker 1>those who refuse to get vaccinated and continue to be

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<v Speaker 1>a threat to the public. Help. So, Um, while we

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<v Speaker 1>don't want to infringe on individual liberties and freedoms, um,

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<v Speaker 1>we would have to put the owners back on the

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<v Speaker 1>individual who refuses to get vaccinated to you know, to

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<v Speaker 1>to keep from spreading the disease to other people, So

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<v Speaker 1>you would you if you're not vaccinated, then you would

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<v Speaker 1>have to wear masks, you would have to test frequently,

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<v Speaker 1>and you would have to prove that you're not a

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<v Speaker 1>risk to the public. So I think it's a matter

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<v Speaker 1>of putting a carrot and a stick, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>the stick should be wielded where people, you know, refuse

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<v Speaker 1>to get vaccinated if there's no medical reason for them

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<v Speaker 1>not to get vaccinated. So dr wee not. The delta

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<v Speaker 1>variant is obviously the dominant variant on a global scale.

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<v Speaker 1>Do we know anything about how long it will remain

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<v Speaker 1>and driving these surges? Is it just a factor of

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<v Speaker 1>when something else comes along or is there a scenario

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<v Speaker 1>where this dies out as a variant? He should we

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<v Speaker 1>think about it? The way to think about it is that, um,

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<v Speaker 1>the more the virus is transmitted, the more the risk

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<v Speaker 1>of variant emergence. So the delta variant right now, obviously

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<v Speaker 1>you know the results of continuous transmission. The way we

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<v Speaker 1>are going to get rid of the delta variant it

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<v Speaker 1>is for you know, more people to get vaccinated and

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<v Speaker 1>for us to curb transmission by maintaining the same um.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, public health measures social distance and wearing masks,

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<v Speaker 1>avoiding crowds and things like that. So if we look

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<v Speaker 1>at the if we look at the epidemic curve of

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<v Speaker 1>let's say the alpha, we can really tell with the

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<v Speaker 1>alpha because alpha is less transmissible than the delta variants.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're actually looking at a longer term UM scenario

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<v Speaker 1>where if we don't put enough measures in place, the

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<v Speaker 1>delta variants might actually stay longer than we saw, the

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<v Speaker 1>alpha variant being like a major driver of of of

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<v Speaker 1>the epidemic. So I would say that UM, for now,

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<v Speaker 1>it's really really important for us to get the vaccination

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<v Speaker 1>rates of around the world because another variant might emerge

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<v Speaker 1>from a part of the world where vaccines are not available.

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<v Speaker 1>This is exactly what we were warned about months ago,

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<v Speaker 1>and we're seeing it happen right now. Dr She is

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<v Speaker 1>about Wenati, Associate Scientist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School

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<v Speaker 1>Public Health, also Nigeria Country Director at the Johns Hopkins

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<v Speaker 1>International Vaccines Center, the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public

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<v Speaker 1>Health that is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder A

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg philanthropies. Well, the U S economy

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<v Speaker 1>is in the midst of a historic comeback. It's happening, though,

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<v Speaker 1>with the lowest rate of labor force participation in more

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<v Speaker 1>than four decades and a record number of unfilled jobs.

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<v Speaker 1>It leaves economists, policymakers and investors wondering where have all

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<v Speaker 1>the workers gone? Those are the words from Olivia Rockman.

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<v Speaker 1>She's US economy reporter for Bloomberg News. She's joining us

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<v Speaker 1>on the phone from San Diego. Also, Joe Webber's joining us.

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<v Speaker 1>He's at her at Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us

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<v Speaker 1>on the access line from Massachusetts. Yes, San Diego, that's

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<v Speaker 1>pretty nice place to be right now, Olivia, I can

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<v Speaker 1>speak like that as a Californian, Joel, Where have all

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<v Speaker 1>the workers gone? It has been a question that companies

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<v Speaker 1>UM an economists have just been obsessing about um since

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<v Speaker 1>the economy started to pick up steam. And there's help

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<v Speaker 1>wanted signs. The biggest thing I've been seeing a like

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<v Speaker 1>signing bonuses and like this isn't like nothing. We're talking

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<v Speaker 1>like thousands of dollars on up and it's all on

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<v Speaker 1>an attempt to incentivize workers to come out of the

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<v Speaker 1>closet because they have just literally it seems like they've

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<v Speaker 1>gone missing. But it turns out that, um, it's not

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<v Speaker 1>quite as big of a mystery, um as it might seem,

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<v Speaker 1>and that Olivia sort of helped UH do some sleuthing

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<v Speaker 1>and figure out what was at the bottom of it.

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<v Speaker 1>And and Olivia, I'll turn it over to you. But

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<v Speaker 1>part of this is frankly just because of boomers, right,

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<v Speaker 1>that's right. So one of the big factors is that

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<v Speaker 1>boomers retired at double the rate that they did in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty nineteen last year, and so we have this highly

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<v Speaker 1>productive group of workers that now is basically out for

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<v Speaker 1>for good. And then at the same time, we're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>the birth rate decline and we're not seeing young people

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<v Speaker 1>and try to work force at as fact of wait

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<v Speaker 1>as those generations before them did. Well, you know, Olivia

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<v Speaker 1>al from Jersey called me and said, get back to work.

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<v Speaker 1>So here I am back back to work. But one

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<v Speaker 1>of the issues that I think some people may have

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<v Speaker 1>is maybe their skills just kind of lapse here and

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<v Speaker 1>they might not be as employable as maybe they were

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<v Speaker 1>when they're in their workforce. And I'm thinking maybe about

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<v Speaker 1>some some of the older demos um what are you

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<v Speaker 1>finding as at least ages. So it's of course historical

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<v Speaker 1>that employers discriminate against people who are older when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to hiring because they know they won't get as

0:13:36.480 --> 0:13:39.000
<v Speaker 1>many years out of that worker. At the same time,

0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:41.800
<v Speaker 1>while skills may lapse when you spend more time out

0:13:41.800 --> 0:13:44.720
<v Speaker 1>of the workforce, it also means that if you've had

0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:47.720
<v Speaker 1>these long resume gaps when you're applying for a job,

0:13:48.320 --> 0:13:51.760
<v Speaker 1>employers often, you know, let those resumes out or aren't

0:13:51.760 --> 0:13:54.360
<v Speaker 1>as quick to hire, and so it makes it harder

0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:57.079
<v Speaker 1>for people to jump back into the workforce the longer

0:13:57.120 --> 0:14:01.160
<v Speaker 1>they've been away. So what do economists and analysts who

0:14:01.240 --> 0:14:03.960
<v Speaker 1>you speak to say needs to happen when it comes

0:14:04.000 --> 0:14:09.040
<v Speaker 1>to policy making decisions to encourage employees to get back

0:14:09.040 --> 0:14:12.560
<v Speaker 1>to work. There are a number of factors here. So

0:14:12.679 --> 0:14:14.960
<v Speaker 1>one of them that we've kind of found over the

0:14:15.040 --> 0:14:18.120
<v Speaker 1>last six months or so is a childcare problem. And

0:14:18.200 --> 0:14:22.840
<v Speaker 1>so parents, particularly women, left the labor force at high rates,

0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:25.400
<v Speaker 1>and some see the cost of childcare and they say,

0:14:25.440 --> 0:14:27.720
<v Speaker 1>you know what, why go back at a low wage

0:14:27.760 --> 0:14:30.440
<v Speaker 1>when I can just save on that cost. And so

0:14:30.600 --> 0:14:33.800
<v Speaker 1>some of what Biden has proposed in this trillions of

0:14:33.840 --> 0:14:39.360
<v Speaker 1>dollar packages childcare castability. So that's one thing. Another thing

0:14:39.600 --> 0:14:42.520
<v Speaker 1>is the opioid crisis that's caused a lot of people

0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:45.840
<v Speaker 1>to lead the labor force, and again that takes a

0:14:45.920 --> 0:14:52.440
<v Speaker 1>crackdown on you know, rehabilitation and help for these individuals.

0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:55.160
<v Speaker 1>So there's so many categories in each one sort of

0:14:55.160 --> 0:14:58.800
<v Speaker 1>has its own policy structure around it. I want to

0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:04.280
<v Speaker 1>talk more about the opoids, um, because when you think

0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:10.560
<v Speaker 1>about the scale of an epidemic like it was and predated, um, uh,

0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:14.280
<v Speaker 1>this pandemic obviously, um, it's easy to maybe think like

0:15:14.320 --> 0:15:16.960
<v Speaker 1>it it wouldn't have had as big of a dint

0:15:17.400 --> 0:15:20.800
<v Speaker 1>as it seems to be happen be having. So like,

0:15:21.080 --> 0:15:26.840
<v Speaker 1>how are economists looking at at the implications from from opioids?

0:15:26.600 --> 0:15:30.800
<v Speaker 1>How how big is that in terms of the missing

0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:35.400
<v Speaker 1>element in this labor force. So drug overdose death in

0:15:35.440 --> 0:15:38.840
<v Speaker 1>particular rose by thirty percent last year. Um. That's a

0:15:38.920 --> 0:15:42.960
<v Speaker 1>huge increase from the years prior. In fact, opioid death

0:15:43.040 --> 0:15:46.640
<v Speaker 1>had been kind of plateau going and have now increased again.

0:15:46.840 --> 0:15:50.160
<v Speaker 1>And the problem there is that in areas where addiction

0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:53.800
<v Speaker 1>rates are higher, we see lower rates of labor force participation.

0:15:54.320 --> 0:15:58.040
<v Speaker 1>And so as this spreads, it sort of worsens the issue. Um,

0:15:58.280 --> 0:16:00.960
<v Speaker 1>Like we've seen a d C for example, been a

0:16:01.040 --> 0:16:06.440
<v Speaker 1>huge problem for many of the employers there. And so

0:16:06.520 --> 0:16:10.320
<v Speaker 1>when you think about, um, what can be done, I mean, like,

0:16:10.360 --> 0:16:11.480
<v Speaker 1>how do you how do you get on the other

0:16:11.520 --> 0:16:16.000
<v Speaker 1>side of this from a policy perspective. So, of course,

0:16:16.040 --> 0:16:19.880
<v Speaker 1>as I mentioned, Biden is proposing this massive infrastructure plan

0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:23.680
<v Speaker 1>which has many different components that are aiming to help

0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:26.560
<v Speaker 1>get people back into the labor force. But as we

0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:29.560
<v Speaker 1>say in our story, you know, labor force participation is

0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:34.280
<v Speaker 1>at a forty year low right now, um, right, Like

0:16:35.160 --> 0:16:39.080
<v Speaker 1>we're back to the seventies exactly. And the seventies was

0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:42.440
<v Speaker 1>a time in which we had you know, historic recession,

0:16:42.560 --> 0:16:47.080
<v Speaker 1>inflation was high, and there were cultural differences then as well. Um.

0:16:47.120 --> 0:16:49.840
<v Speaker 1>And so while we did sort of climb out of

0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:52.680
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic low, we haven't seen a lot of progress

0:16:52.680 --> 0:16:56.160
<v Speaker 1>in labor force participation since August of last year. And

0:16:56.240 --> 0:16:59.160
<v Speaker 1>so it's going to take a lot for for you know,

0:16:59.240 --> 0:17:01.800
<v Speaker 1>policymakers both on the said side and on the White

0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:04.920
<v Speaker 1>House side to come up with solutions to get people

0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:08.000
<v Speaker 1>to start working again. The seventies were quite good for me,

0:17:08.040 --> 0:17:11.600
<v Speaker 1>I'll just point out, all right, let's talk automation here, Olivia.

0:17:11.640 --> 0:17:13.200
<v Speaker 1>When I go to the CBS and get my four

0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:16.200
<v Speaker 1>or five items, I just scan it myself in schedattle.

0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:19.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean, so that's got to be an issue. What's

0:17:19.560 --> 0:17:22.720
<v Speaker 1>really interesting here is in prior recessions, we always saw

0:17:22.880 --> 0:17:28.000
<v Speaker 1>automation coming in kind of to replace manufacturing jobs, factory jobs.

0:17:28.280 --> 0:17:31.800
<v Speaker 1>But because of the health crisis, we've seen automation now

0:17:31.840 --> 0:17:35.200
<v Speaker 1>replacing service workers as well, whether that's in food service

0:17:35.440 --> 0:17:38.399
<v Speaker 1>or as you mentioned as CBS or grocery store. And

0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:41.920
<v Speaker 1>so we've sort of seen what happened in Pire recessions

0:17:41.920 --> 0:17:45.359
<v Speaker 1>now accelerate on the automation front. And in the US,

0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:48.680
<v Speaker 1>we really don't invest that much in reskilling, which would

0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:51.879
<v Speaker 1>help people who've lost their jobs two robots kind of

0:17:51.920 --> 0:17:55.000
<v Speaker 1>get back into the workforce, and so that's that's really

0:17:55.040 --> 0:17:57.399
<v Speaker 1>where we're lacking in that area. Hey, Olivia, just in

0:17:57.440 --> 0:17:59.159
<v Speaker 1>the last thirty seconds that we have with you, the

0:17:59.200 --> 0:18:01.920
<v Speaker 1>jobs report tomorrow it's expected to show that the US

0:18:01.960 --> 0:18:06.040
<v Speaker 1>added just about seventy five thousand jobs in July. What's

0:18:06.080 --> 0:18:09.720
<v Speaker 1>the number that you're going to be paying attention to, though, Well,

0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:13.240
<v Speaker 1>this story is all about labor fourth participation and economists

0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:16.360
<v Speaker 1>for estimating that labor first participation is going to barely

0:18:16.400 --> 0:18:19.160
<v Speaker 1>move upward. And so you know that's going to continue

0:18:19.160 --> 0:18:20.760
<v Speaker 1>to point to this trend that there's going to need

0:18:20.800 --> 0:18:23.360
<v Speaker 1>to be more happy on the policy front to get

0:18:23.440 --> 0:18:27.399
<v Speaker 1>us back. Olivia Rockman is US economy reporter at Bloomberg News.

0:18:27.440 --> 0:18:29.640
<v Speaker 1>She joins us on the phone from San Diego along

0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:32.200
<v Speaker 1>with Joel weber Eder at Bloomberg Business Week. He's joining

0:18:32.280 --> 0:18:35.480
<v Speaker 1>us from Massachusetts. Olivia's story is featured in the current

0:18:35.520 --> 0:18:37.760
<v Speaker 1>issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine. You can read it

0:18:37.760 --> 0:18:41.200
<v Speaker 1>now at the Bloomberg Terminal and on Bloomberg dot com

0:18:41.240 --> 0:18:49.040
<v Speaker 1>slash of business Week. This is Bloomberg business Week with

0:18:49.200 --> 0:18:53.879
<v Speaker 1>Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.

0:18:55.560 --> 0:18:57.680
<v Speaker 1>All right, Paul Sweeney sitting here for Carol Master today

0:18:57.800 --> 0:19:01.320
<v Speaker 1>along with Tips Stenovic, Boy me, M and A is

0:19:01.440 --> 0:19:05.520
<v Speaker 1>alive and well. And that whole concept of content is

0:19:05.640 --> 0:19:08.680
<v Speaker 1>king is absolutely making itself known. And I always described

0:19:08.720 --> 0:19:11.119
<v Speaker 1>that term content is king. It's widely used, but I

0:19:11.200 --> 0:19:15.000
<v Speaker 1>describe it to Sumner Redstone, the media mogul. He used

0:19:15.040 --> 0:19:17.160
<v Speaker 1>to just say that all the time because he owned

0:19:17.160 --> 0:19:19.560
<v Speaker 1>a lot of content. Uh, let's take a look at

0:19:19.560 --> 0:19:21.800
<v Speaker 1>some of these deals with Jerry Smith, media reporter for

0:19:21.800 --> 0:19:23.600
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg News. He joins us on the phone from New

0:19:23.640 --> 0:19:26.800
<v Speaker 1>York City. So, Jerry, first, we had Rees Witherspoon selling

0:19:26.920 --> 0:19:29.720
<v Speaker 1>her Hello Sunshine Media Group to nine million bucks. I

0:19:29.720 --> 0:19:32.879
<v Speaker 1>think this pe folks. And then just today South Parks

0:19:32.880 --> 0:19:36.080
<v Speaker 1>creator signed a new nine million dollar deal with Viacom

0:19:36.200 --> 0:19:39.399
<v Speaker 1>CBS is what's going on out there? Seems like an

0:19:39.440 --> 0:19:42.800
<v Speaker 1>arms race. Yeah, that's absolutely right. I mean there's a

0:19:42.840 --> 0:19:47.080
<v Speaker 1>real land grab right now for high quality programming as

0:19:47.640 --> 0:19:51.240
<v Speaker 1>all the big media giants and tech companies are trying

0:19:51.280 --> 0:19:54.280
<v Speaker 1>to um, you know, fill their streaming services with as

0:19:54.280 --> 0:19:57.400
<v Speaker 1>many TV shows and movies as possible. So this new

0:19:57.440 --> 0:20:01.040
<v Speaker 1>deal Jerry runs through, it covers six more cycles of

0:20:01.160 --> 0:20:05.400
<v Speaker 1>South Park, it includes fourteen made for streaming movies. That's

0:20:05.400 --> 0:20:07.359
<v Speaker 1>the part that really stuck out to me. So this

0:20:07.440 --> 0:20:10.600
<v Speaker 1>is these are for Paramount plus because it's really confusing

0:20:10.640 --> 0:20:15.320
<v Speaker 1>because you can watch south Park on HBO Max. Yeah

0:20:15.400 --> 0:20:17.680
<v Speaker 1>that's right. I mean that's an example of just how

0:20:18.000 --> 0:20:20.920
<v Speaker 1>um you know splintered. The full streaming world is where

0:20:21.320 --> 0:20:23.119
<v Speaker 1>you know, the old episodes of the show might be

0:20:23.160 --> 0:20:26.000
<v Speaker 1>in one streaming service and the new reboot of the

0:20:26.080 --> 0:20:28.720
<v Speaker 1>show is on another. I mean, there's another example where

0:20:29.000 --> 0:20:32.040
<v Speaker 1>Peacock is doing a reboot of The Fresh Prince of

0:20:32.080 --> 0:20:34.679
<v Speaker 1>bel Air, but the old episodes of Fresh Princes are

0:20:34.680 --> 0:20:38.880
<v Speaker 1>on HBO Max. I think ya com CBS. Their deal

0:20:38.960 --> 0:20:42.359
<v Speaker 1>with the South Park creators runs longer than their license

0:20:42.400 --> 0:20:44.400
<v Speaker 1>to deal with HBO Max, and I think the strategy

0:20:44.480 --> 0:20:47.960
<v Speaker 1>there is eventually those shows, those old episodes of South

0:20:48.000 --> 0:20:50.639
<v Speaker 1>Park end up on Paramount Plus along with all the

0:20:50.680 --> 0:20:54.080
<v Speaker 1>new shows and movies that the creators are making. Jerry,

0:20:54.119 --> 0:20:55.399
<v Speaker 1>I'm getting to the point of being and I'm a

0:20:55.480 --> 0:20:57.520
<v Speaker 1>media analyst, have covered this stuff for thirty five years

0:20:57.520 --> 0:21:00.680
<v Speaker 1>of getting completely overwhelmed by the choices there, but I

0:21:00.760 --> 0:21:02.879
<v Speaker 1>cannot report that after again thirty or five years, I

0:21:02.920 --> 0:21:05.560
<v Speaker 1>finally cut the cord for no other reason than we

0:21:05.640 --> 0:21:09.960
<v Speaker 1>sold our house, you know. Um, But it's interesting here.

0:21:10.520 --> 0:21:11.800
<v Speaker 1>What do you think is next? I mean, are we

0:21:11.840 --> 0:21:14.600
<v Speaker 1>can see more and more of these A list people,

0:21:15.200 --> 0:21:16.399
<v Speaker 1>you know, I kind of go out there and try

0:21:16.480 --> 0:21:22.000
<v Speaker 1>to form production companies and but also content and sell out. Yeah,

0:21:22.000 --> 0:21:26.000
<v Speaker 1>I mean, this is really an incredible time. If you

0:21:26.119 --> 0:21:29.679
<v Speaker 1>are you know, independent studio, I mean Lebron james Is

0:21:30.200 --> 0:21:34.280
<v Speaker 1>Production Studio is also exploring its sale. Um, you know,

0:21:34.720 --> 0:21:38.040
<v Speaker 1>I think that there's uh, you know, these streaming services

0:21:38.119 --> 0:21:41.640
<v Speaker 1>they just need more and more programming and certainly they're

0:21:42.000 --> 0:21:44.400
<v Speaker 1>just in how studios are making a lot of it.

0:21:44.440 --> 0:21:48.520
<v Speaker 1>But if you're an independent producer, I mean you have

0:21:48.880 --> 0:21:50.920
<v Speaker 1>your your phone is probably ringing off the hook right

0:21:50.920 --> 0:21:54.360
<v Speaker 1>now with streaming services that are are looking to do

0:21:54.520 --> 0:21:57.159
<v Speaker 1>deals with you. Well to that, and Jerry, you have

0:21:57.240 --> 0:22:00.760
<v Speaker 1>a new story out in Bloomberg Business. We can current issue.

0:22:00.800 --> 0:22:04.280
<v Speaker 1>It's all about none other than the daily shows. John Stewart.

0:22:04.359 --> 0:22:07.439
<v Speaker 1>He's going to Apple TV. This is cool. Yeah, this

0:22:07.520 --> 0:22:09.560
<v Speaker 1>is cool. And and this is interesting because I remember

0:22:09.680 --> 0:22:15.160
<v Speaker 1>years ago this was what Jerry where uh hbo signed

0:22:15.160 --> 0:22:17.440
<v Speaker 1>a deal with Jon Stewart after he was on Comedy

0:22:17.480 --> 0:22:21.840
<v Speaker 1>Central and nothing ever came of that. Yeah that's right.

0:22:21.840 --> 0:22:23.960
<v Speaker 1>He Um, you know, he had an idea and a

0:22:24.040 --> 0:22:27.520
<v Speaker 1>very ambitious idea to do some sort of animated show

0:22:27.720 --> 0:22:30.520
<v Speaker 1>related to current events and it uh and it just

0:22:30.760 --> 0:22:33.840
<v Speaker 1>died in production. Um. But yeah, he has a new

0:22:33.880 --> 0:22:38.439
<v Speaker 1>show that's coming out on Apple TV TV plus next month. Um,

0:22:38.440 --> 0:22:40.280
<v Speaker 1>it's gonna be a little bit different format in the

0:22:40.359 --> 0:22:43.320
<v Speaker 1>Daily Show. He's going to spend an hour really doing

0:22:43.359 --> 0:22:46.879
<v Speaker 1>a deep dive on a certain specific topic. Um. He

0:22:46.880 --> 0:22:48.760
<v Speaker 1>hasn't said what these topics are going to be yet,

0:22:48.800 --> 0:22:51.560
<v Speaker 1>but it sounds similar to what John Oliver does, a

0:22:51.600 --> 0:22:55.359
<v Speaker 1>former colleague of Stuart's from The Daily Show, John Oliver

0:22:55.440 --> 0:22:58.480
<v Speaker 1>as a show on HBO called Last Week Tonight where he, um,

0:22:58.520 --> 0:23:01.399
<v Speaker 1>you know, spends much of the program just um doing

0:23:01.400 --> 0:23:06.000
<v Speaker 1>a really in depth piece on on a specific topic. Um.

0:23:06.080 --> 0:23:08.280
<v Speaker 1>But yeah, I mean Apple TV Plus has has sort

0:23:08.280 --> 0:23:11.359
<v Speaker 1>of flown under the radar in the whole discussion about

0:23:11.400 --> 0:23:15.160
<v Speaker 1>the streaming wars. Um, certainly Apple has very deep pockets,

0:23:15.240 --> 0:23:18.280
<v Speaker 1>but um, in streaming service, the library is a lot

0:23:18.400 --> 0:23:23.080
<v Speaker 1>thinner than um, you know, Netflix or HBO Max. But

0:23:23.240 --> 0:23:25.920
<v Speaker 1>they certainly, you know, they have a hit show right now,

0:23:25.960 --> 0:23:29.879
<v Speaker 1>Ted Lasso. Everybody seems to be talking about Ted Lasso. Um,

0:23:29.920 --> 0:23:31.680
<v Speaker 1>you know in this Jon Stewart show. I know they're

0:23:31.720 --> 0:23:34.639
<v Speaker 1>hoping that that's going to be generating a lot of buzz.

0:23:34.680 --> 0:23:37.359
<v Speaker 1>And it's an important moment for Apple Apple TV Plus

0:23:37.400 --> 0:23:40.400
<v Speaker 1>because a lot of the people who signed up got

0:23:40.400 --> 0:23:43.560
<v Speaker 1>one year free trials and those were extended and extended again,

0:23:43.600 --> 0:23:46.440
<v Speaker 1>and now they're starting to wear off, so that, you know,

0:23:46.480 --> 0:23:49.760
<v Speaker 1>Apple TV plus really needs some compelling content to keep

0:23:49.800 --> 0:23:53.360
<v Speaker 1>people around once they're free trial in. Yeah, I mean

0:23:53.400 --> 0:23:55.600
<v Speaker 1>it's and it's not for lack of resources, right j

0:23:55.840 --> 0:23:57.520
<v Speaker 1>When you think about the balance sheet of Apple, if

0:23:57.560 --> 0:23:59.439
<v Speaker 1>they if they really really wanted to get in here,

0:23:59.480 --> 0:24:01.800
<v Speaker 1>there's no opping them. Do we have any idea of

0:24:01.880 --> 0:24:05.520
<v Speaker 1>the terms of this John Stewart deal? Uh, you know,

0:24:05.560 --> 0:24:08.520
<v Speaker 1>I mean he's going to be producing other programming for

0:24:08.560 --> 0:24:12.480
<v Speaker 1>Apple as well. I think, um, you know, but it's

0:24:12.520 --> 0:24:16.840
<v Speaker 1>definitely Apple is As you said, they've got very deep pockets.

0:24:16.880 --> 0:24:19.440
<v Speaker 1>I think everyone in Hollywood has been waiting for them

0:24:19.480 --> 0:24:22.199
<v Speaker 1>to start taking some big swings. Uh. You know, they

0:24:22.240 --> 0:24:25.640
<v Speaker 1>have Oprah Winfrey, They have a lot of really big

0:24:25.720 --> 0:24:29.000
<v Speaker 1>name talent um you know that that are making shows

0:24:29.000 --> 0:24:32.840
<v Speaker 1>and movies for them, and I think it's um, you know,

0:24:32.880 --> 0:24:35.160
<v Speaker 1>the John Stewart Show will be a really interesting example

0:24:35.240 --> 0:24:38.560
<v Speaker 1>also because um, you know that the whole late night

0:24:38.840 --> 0:24:44.720
<v Speaker 1>um comedian talk shows haven't always translated well on streaming services.

0:24:44.760 --> 0:24:47.800
<v Speaker 1>We haven't seen anything that's really broken through in the

0:24:47.840 --> 0:24:51.199
<v Speaker 1>same way that you know, the broadcast networks with the

0:24:51.240 --> 0:24:54.080
<v Speaker 1>Tonight show. UM, you know that that that they have,

0:24:54.240 --> 0:24:56.439
<v Speaker 1>so that'll be really interesting to see. Um, you know

0:24:56.480 --> 0:24:59.160
<v Speaker 1>how John Stewart Show does. Hey, Jerry, can't let you

0:24:59.720 --> 0:25:02.440
<v Speaker 1>leave without talking about Viacom CBS because I know you're

0:25:02.480 --> 0:25:05.680
<v Speaker 1>up early covering those earnings. Today shares a Viacom CBS

0:25:05.760 --> 0:25:08.919
<v Speaker 1>higher by more than seven right now. UM, what's the

0:25:08.920 --> 0:25:13.760
<v Speaker 1>headline there? Well, certainly streaming. Uh, you know, they're starting

0:25:13.760 --> 0:25:16.960
<v Speaker 1>to see some traction with with Paramount Plus. They're starting

0:25:16.960 --> 0:25:21.080
<v Speaker 1>to expand internationally. They announced a big deal where they're

0:25:21.080 --> 0:25:25.680
<v Speaker 1>going to be launching Paramount plus UM on Sky's European networks.

0:25:25.680 --> 0:25:29.119
<v Speaker 1>That's the deal Skies, owned by Comcast. There was a

0:25:29.119 --> 0:25:32.639
<v Speaker 1>lot of chatter about maybe Comcasting Viacom CBS could do

0:25:32.760 --> 0:25:35.240
<v Speaker 1>some sort of m and a, but at least for now,

0:25:35.400 --> 0:25:37.440
<v Speaker 1>it looks like they're just going to be partnering on

0:25:37.920 --> 0:25:42.320
<v Speaker 1>UM launching streaming services in Europe. UM. Also, the ad

0:25:42.359 --> 0:25:47.240
<v Speaker 1>market is bouncing back. Last year, advertisers really pulled back

0:25:47.280 --> 0:25:49.040
<v Speaker 1>at the height of the pandemic, and now they're starting

0:25:49.040 --> 0:25:51.960
<v Speaker 1>to spend again. And every media company now is UM

0:25:52.040 --> 0:25:55.200
<v Speaker 1>you know, saying that the markets bouncing back. Amazing good stuff.

0:25:55.240 --> 0:25:57.560
<v Speaker 1>Jerry Smith, media reporter for Bloomberg News, joining us on

0:25:57.560 --> 0:25:59.440
<v Speaker 1>the phone from New York. Lads of m n A

0:25:59.600 --> 0:26:02.280
<v Speaker 1>some act positions looking for content in the media world.

0:26:02.359 --> 0:26:04.520
<v Speaker 1>Taking a look right now at the real time price

0:26:04.640 --> 0:26:08.080
<v Speaker 1>of robin Hood took her h O O D down

0:26:08.200 --> 0:26:12.840
<v Speaker 1>twenty two today. That follows three days of gains, still

0:26:12.880 --> 0:26:15.760
<v Speaker 1>though trading at fifty four dollars a share, significantly higher

0:26:15.760 --> 0:26:18.000
<v Speaker 1>than the I p O price of just a week ago.

0:26:18.280 --> 0:26:23.240
<v Speaker 1>The reason for this decline today investors filing to sell stock,

0:26:23.320 --> 0:26:27.720
<v Speaker 1>venture capitalists who are cashing in billions of dollars after

0:26:27.920 --> 0:26:30.720
<v Speaker 1>robin Hood's increase in share price in recent days. Annie

0:26:30.720 --> 0:26:33.080
<v Speaker 1>Massa is investing reporter at Bloomberg News. She joins us

0:26:33.080 --> 0:26:35.960
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from New York City. Uh, Annie, Uh,

0:26:36.280 --> 0:26:39.800
<v Speaker 1>it's the sell off has accelerated since we last spoke

0:26:39.840 --> 0:26:42.919
<v Speaker 1>on quick Take a few hours ago. Uh. Is this

0:26:43.080 --> 0:26:45.399
<v Speaker 1>just a result of the volatility that we've seen in

0:26:45.640 --> 0:26:48.720
<v Speaker 1>robin Hood in in the last six days. It's a

0:26:48.760 --> 0:26:51.640
<v Speaker 1>real reversal from what we were seeing earlier this week.

0:26:51.680 --> 0:26:54.760
<v Speaker 1>As you mentioned, we had a three day stretch earlier

0:26:54.760 --> 0:27:00.560
<v Speaker 1>this week when robin Hood's price doubled and that it

0:27:00.600 --> 0:27:03.159
<v Speaker 1>was a turnaround from I p O day when it

0:27:03.280 --> 0:27:07.080
<v Speaker 1>sold off. So you've seen these big, big swings in

0:27:07.240 --> 0:27:09.439
<v Speaker 1>robin Hood over the course of the past week and

0:27:09.480 --> 0:27:12.880
<v Speaker 1>it's only been a public company for a single week. Yeah,

0:27:12.880 --> 0:27:15.639
<v Speaker 1>any what jumped out of me was the lock up

0:27:15.840 --> 0:27:19.119
<v Speaker 1>or lack there of. On any of my equity deals,

0:27:19.359 --> 0:27:21.960
<v Speaker 1>you'd have to have a six month lock up here,

0:27:22.000 --> 0:27:26.040
<v Speaker 1>but these guys didn't. Why not? So this this is

0:27:26.040 --> 0:27:28.400
<v Speaker 1>a bit different. Some of the reason that we've seen

0:27:28.440 --> 0:27:31.320
<v Speaker 1>this sell off today and one of the surprises that

0:27:31.480 --> 0:27:35.040
<v Speaker 1>came out this morning was you're seeing some of the

0:27:35.080 --> 0:27:38.879
<v Speaker 1>big venture capital backers of robin Hood UM getting the

0:27:38.920 --> 0:27:43.760
<v Speaker 1>opportunity to UH sell shares to the tune of ninety

0:27:43.800 --> 0:27:47.000
<v Speaker 1>eight million shares. Now that's not all happening at once,

0:27:47.080 --> 0:27:51.320
<v Speaker 1>but they do have the ability to do that and UM,

0:27:51.359 --> 0:27:54.520
<v Speaker 1>as you mentioned the in a typical I p O process,

0:27:54.960 --> 0:27:58.800
<v Speaker 1>those lockups are in place to kind of stabilize the

0:27:58.880 --> 0:28:03.440
<v Speaker 1>price of the stock went in the public and robin

0:28:03.440 --> 0:28:05.560
<v Speaker 1>Hood had a couple other factors in play here. They

0:28:05.600 --> 0:28:09.520
<v Speaker 1>had an unusually large allocusian to retail. They have these

0:28:09.560 --> 0:28:13.120
<v Speaker 1>provisions for their venture backers, who, as you remember, kind

0:28:13.119 --> 0:28:15.800
<v Speaker 1>of failed them out earlier in the year during the

0:28:15.840 --> 0:28:19.879
<v Speaker 1>game stop and and C volatility UM they raised an

0:28:19.880 --> 0:28:24.040
<v Speaker 1>emergency more than three billion dollars UM, I mean nearly

0:28:24.080 --> 0:28:30.000
<v Speaker 1>overnight from their VC backers, so that um those dynamics

0:28:30.040 --> 0:28:33.520
<v Speaker 1>are a bit more unique to Robin Hood. Any Even

0:28:33.520 --> 0:28:36.560
<v Speaker 1>though robin Hot stock is down right now, over the

0:28:36.600 --> 0:28:40.840
<v Speaker 1>last three days, it's higher by more than do we

0:28:40.960 --> 0:28:44.719
<v Speaker 1>know why the stock moved higher so quickly? Was this?

0:28:44.840 --> 0:28:47.480
<v Speaker 1>Is this a meme stock? Now? Basically that's what it

0:28:47.520 --> 0:28:50.600
<v Speaker 1>seems like. It's it's it's like nothing fundamental has changed, right,

0:28:52.600 --> 0:28:54.600
<v Speaker 1>it does seem it does seem to have some of

0:28:54.640 --> 0:28:58.680
<v Speaker 1>that means some of those meme stock characteristics, just seeing

0:28:58.720 --> 0:29:03.480
<v Speaker 1>those crazy swings with no real fundamental change that we

0:29:03.520 --> 0:29:08.960
<v Speaker 1>can identify UM and and the big retail participation. Something

0:29:09.000 --> 0:29:12.680
<v Speaker 1>that's interesting about these dynamics with Robin Hood right now

0:29:12.760 --> 0:29:18.080
<v Speaker 1>is there wasn't as much retail UM activity on the

0:29:18.120 --> 0:29:21.320
<v Speaker 1>first day of trading, but it picked up pretty considerably

0:29:21.400 --> 0:29:24.720
<v Speaker 1>in the past couple of days, even becoming the fourth

0:29:24.760 --> 0:29:30.000
<v Speaker 1>most traded stock on retail trading platforms yesterday. So, I mean,

0:29:30.040 --> 0:29:34.440
<v Speaker 1>the retail action has definitely arrived. It just arrived a

0:29:34.480 --> 0:29:37.400
<v Speaker 1>few days after the I PM. Yeah, I'm going at

0:29:37.400 --> 0:29:39.840
<v Speaker 1>the volume here. Over sixty four million shares have traded

0:29:40.080 --> 0:29:44.080
<v Speaker 1>so far today. That feels like retail to me. And

0:29:44.240 --> 0:29:47.360
<v Speaker 1>it has a company commented all about their stock price,

0:29:47.920 --> 0:29:51.280
<v Speaker 1>you know, moving over the last several days. They haven't

0:29:51.560 --> 0:29:55.080
<v Speaker 1>commented on it. They they've only pointed to statements that

0:29:55.160 --> 0:29:58.160
<v Speaker 1>executives have made in the past about how they're keeping

0:29:58.840 --> 0:30:02.640
<v Speaker 1>their eye on the long term. Here. Still, you have

0:30:02.720 --> 0:30:08.080
<v Speaker 1>to imagine that at robin Hood headquarters or working from home,

0:30:08.320 --> 0:30:11.600
<v Speaker 1>they're keeping an eye on this share price because yesterday

0:30:11.840 --> 0:30:15.000
<v Speaker 1>the stock was held in multiple times for volatility. So

0:30:15.200 --> 0:30:17.600
<v Speaker 1>that's the type of thing you can entirely ignore. Yeah,

0:30:17.640 --> 0:30:18.880
<v Speaker 1>that's just in the first That was just in the

0:30:18.880 --> 0:30:22.000
<v Speaker 1>first you know, like the first eleven minutes of trading,

0:30:22.000 --> 0:30:24.720
<v Speaker 1>I believe it was. It was a wild ride. Um

0:30:24.880 --> 0:30:27.480
<v Speaker 1>any what what's the next catalyst that we should be

0:30:27.480 --> 0:30:29.560
<v Speaker 1>looking for for robin Hood. I mean, since it's a

0:30:29.600 --> 0:30:31.680
<v Speaker 1>meme stock, I hesitate to even ask the question because

0:30:31.680 --> 0:30:33.200
<v Speaker 1>there's no sort of rhyme of reason as to why

0:30:33.200 --> 0:30:36.280
<v Speaker 1>it moves. But given that we got this filing earlier

0:30:36.280 --> 0:30:38.360
<v Speaker 1>today that sent the stock price plummeting, what are you

0:30:38.360 --> 0:30:41.440
<v Speaker 1>on the lookout for. One important thing that we haven't

0:30:41.480 --> 0:30:44.040
<v Speaker 1>touched on yet is that options on robin Hood began

0:30:44.080 --> 0:30:47.640
<v Speaker 1>trading yesterday, so those uh lad a couple of days

0:30:47.680 --> 0:30:51.000
<v Speaker 1>behind the day that the stocks started trading, So that

0:30:51.080 --> 0:30:53.880
<v Speaker 1>may have amplified some of the volatility that we saw.

0:30:54.320 --> 0:30:58.720
<v Speaker 1>And um, you know, hundreds of thousands of options were

0:30:58.720 --> 0:31:02.320
<v Speaker 1>trading hands yesterday, so that added the action. But um,

0:31:02.360 --> 0:31:05.120
<v Speaker 1>one other thing to look out for in the future

0:31:05.800 --> 0:31:09.400
<v Speaker 1>is the resolution of some of the regulatory um inquiries

0:31:09.440 --> 0:31:12.320
<v Speaker 1>that they've revealed. Even in a couple of days leading

0:31:12.400 --> 0:31:14.360
<v Speaker 1>up to the I p O, there are still very

0:31:14.440 --> 0:31:18.400
<v Speaker 1>much open investigations, so that's something to keep an eye

0:31:18.400 --> 0:31:22.720
<v Speaker 1>on as well. Annie massa investing reporter for Bloomberg News,

0:31:22.760 --> 0:31:25.160
<v Speaker 1>joining us on the phone from here in New York

0:31:29.720 --> 0:31:33.200
<v Speaker 1>the Journal. Yeah, but you let me drive. Oh no,

0:31:33.200 --> 0:31:39.440
<v Speaker 1>no, no no, no home please, I'll do the riding. I

0:31:39.600 --> 0:31:47.600
<v Speaker 1>want to drive. All just drive, baby, it's the questions

0:31:47.760 --> 0:31:58.120
<v Speaker 1>to try. This is the drive to the globe that community. Thanks,

0:31:58.120 --> 0:32:04.120
<v Speaker 1>we'll dry us Nada Boomberg Radio. All right here we

0:32:04.200 --> 0:32:08.240
<v Speaker 1>are looking at these markets at or near record highs.

0:32:08.320 --> 0:32:10.280
<v Speaker 1>Once again, you know a lot of folks are debating

0:32:10.600 --> 0:32:12.920
<v Speaker 1>whether to stay in a growth trade that's worked for

0:32:12.960 --> 0:32:15.440
<v Speaker 1>such a long time go with a rotation trade into

0:32:15.440 --> 0:32:17.280
<v Speaker 1>more cyclical names. And that's kind of been a little

0:32:17.280 --> 0:32:19.560
<v Speaker 1>bit of a discussion within the equity markets. Let's check

0:32:19.600 --> 0:32:22.160
<v Speaker 1>in with our next guests, Uh see where they come out.

0:32:22.160 --> 0:32:25.280
<v Speaker 1>Sandy Villery, portfolio manager Villery and Company with two billion

0:32:25.280 --> 0:32:28.240
<v Speaker 1>dollars in assets under management, joining us on the phone

0:32:28.400 --> 0:32:30.560
<v Speaker 1>in New Orleans. Sandy, thanks so much for joining us.

0:32:30.920 --> 0:32:33.520
<v Speaker 1>I'd love to get your thoughts on kind of maybe

0:32:33.560 --> 0:32:36.000
<v Speaker 1>where you're leaning, where you shake out in terms of

0:32:36.040 --> 0:32:39.680
<v Speaker 1>this growth versus the rotation into maybe more value cyclical

0:32:40.000 --> 0:32:43.000
<v Speaker 1>Where are you guys? Yeah, I mean, thank thanks for

0:32:43.040 --> 0:32:44.960
<v Speaker 1>having me, by the way, And um, I would say

0:32:45.000 --> 0:32:46.760
<v Speaker 1>that you know, when you look at something like the

0:32:46.760 --> 0:32:49.600
<v Speaker 1>tenure Treasury and it's it's down where it is, uh,

0:32:49.840 --> 0:32:51.480
<v Speaker 1>it starts to make us a little bit nervous. I

0:32:51.480 --> 0:32:53.800
<v Speaker 1>mean basically it's telling you, I mean, the bond market

0:32:53.800 --> 0:32:55.880
<v Speaker 1>tends to be smart in the stock market, and it's

0:32:55.920 --> 0:32:58.160
<v Speaker 1>kind of telling you that, you know, growth is gonna slow.

0:32:58.600 --> 0:33:00.960
<v Speaker 1>So um, you know, we we we kind of think

0:33:01.000 --> 0:33:03.440
<v Speaker 1>we want to take some profits and and maybe some

0:33:03.840 --> 0:33:06.360
<v Speaker 1>technology stocks that have done quite well, probably on the

0:33:06.360 --> 0:33:08.840
<v Speaker 1>growth side, as you know, they've got a nice tail

0:33:08.840 --> 0:33:11.960
<v Speaker 1>win with rates coming down. And if if our belief

0:33:12.040 --> 0:33:14.680
<v Speaker 1>is that rates can pop up, you know, perhaps by

0:33:14.880 --> 0:33:16.320
<v Speaker 1>you know, the end of the year, when maybe this

0:33:16.760 --> 0:33:19.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, delta variant gets behind us and and maybe

0:33:19.120 --> 0:33:21.880
<v Speaker 1>it peaks out here over the short run, Um, then

0:33:21.880 --> 0:33:24.239
<v Speaker 1>we want to we want to switch into things like

0:33:24.280 --> 0:33:28.000
<v Speaker 1>financials and maybe more cyclicals they could uh you know,

0:33:28.480 --> 0:33:30.400
<v Speaker 1>being be in some trouble over the short run as

0:33:30.480 --> 0:33:33.240
<v Speaker 1>RACHEL going down, but then look to reverse. So we

0:33:33.320 --> 0:33:35.280
<v Speaker 1>kind of want to be a little bit contrarian as

0:33:35.280 --> 0:33:37.600
<v Speaker 1>to kind of where all the you know, the masses

0:33:37.640 --> 0:33:40.160
<v Speaker 1>are are headed right now? Does that picture change at

0:33:40.200 --> 0:33:42.240
<v Speaker 1>all tomorrow if if we get a huge bee with

0:33:42.280 --> 0:33:46.600
<v Speaker 1>the jobs report. Yeah, it's interesting because um, you know,

0:33:46.680 --> 0:33:48.880
<v Speaker 1>we saw you know, June comes in at eight hundred

0:33:48.920 --> 0:33:52.880
<v Speaker 1>fifty thousand. Hopefully uh we get near this eight seventy

0:33:52.880 --> 0:33:55.640
<v Speaker 1>thousand number for July. But the question is is a

0:33:55.680 --> 0:33:58.800
<v Speaker 1>bad number actually good news for the stock market, um,

0:33:58.880 --> 0:34:01.680
<v Speaker 1>because you know, you could you could have um, you

0:34:01.720 --> 0:34:05.080
<v Speaker 1>know situation where maybe we start to taper um a

0:34:05.080 --> 0:34:07.000
<v Speaker 1>little bit you know soon, or maybe we start taper

0:34:07.040 --> 0:34:08.719
<v Speaker 1>by the end of the year, or maybe we don't.

0:34:09.000 --> 0:34:12.600
<v Speaker 1>So I think a bad number could could lead you towards, um,

0:34:12.680 --> 0:34:14.439
<v Speaker 1>you know, the FED being you know, kind of staying

0:34:14.480 --> 0:34:17.399
<v Speaker 1>a little bit more delish longer than than what people

0:34:17.400 --> 0:34:20.239
<v Speaker 1>are expecting. So if you want more more you know,

0:34:20.440 --> 0:34:23.239
<v Speaker 1>more more Jews from the Fed, then maybe you want

0:34:23.239 --> 0:34:25.960
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of a bad number. It's interesting, so

0:34:26.239 --> 0:34:28.440
<v Speaker 1>sane I'm looking at the Russell two thousands day of

0:34:28.560 --> 0:34:30.439
<v Speaker 1>having a very good day up about one point seven.

0:34:30.880 --> 0:34:35.320
<v Speaker 1>I know historically you guys have favorite small cap uh stocks.

0:34:35.400 --> 0:34:37.440
<v Speaker 1>Is that still the case in what sectors are kind

0:34:37.440 --> 0:34:40.480
<v Speaker 1>of interesting to you guys? Yeah, no, we we we

0:34:40.560 --> 0:34:43.520
<v Speaker 1>do favorite small caps. We just think over the long run, Uh,

0:34:43.560 --> 0:34:45.719
<v Speaker 1>it certainly gives you the opportunity to have us, you know,

0:34:45.760 --> 0:34:48.239
<v Speaker 1>a company bought out or it gives you, um, you

0:34:48.280 --> 0:34:51.360
<v Speaker 1>know hopefully, Uh, we're trying to find that that company

0:34:51.400 --> 0:34:53.880
<v Speaker 1>that becomes the next you know, Amazon or Walmart, if

0:34:53.920 --> 0:34:55.719
<v Speaker 1>you will. So we like to we definitely like to

0:34:55.760 --> 0:34:57.839
<v Speaker 1>be in this more smaller cap names. And I think

0:34:57.880 --> 0:35:00.640
<v Speaker 1>we are trying to take advantage of, you know, with

0:35:00.640 --> 0:35:03.040
<v Speaker 1>with things like financials that are a little bit um

0:35:03.120 --> 0:35:06.000
<v Speaker 1>again under some pressure with falling rates and having a

0:35:06.040 --> 0:35:09.440
<v Speaker 1>more difficult time you know, with their net interest margins, etcetera,

0:35:09.719 --> 0:35:11.719
<v Speaker 1>trying to take advantage and being a little bit contrarian.

0:35:12.080 --> 0:35:13.920
<v Speaker 1>And then we also want to buy you know, some

0:35:13.960 --> 0:35:15.880
<v Speaker 1>things that are a little bit um maybe tied to

0:35:15.920 --> 0:35:18.440
<v Speaker 1>the reopening of the economy that all of a sudden

0:35:18.440 --> 0:35:21.240
<v Speaker 1>are under pressure, you know, because of the delta variant

0:35:21.320 --> 0:35:24.399
<v Speaker 1>and and and and some uncertainty. So we we love,

0:35:24.760 --> 0:35:27.120
<v Speaker 1>we love some names that are more cyclical and uh

0:35:27.200 --> 0:35:29.839
<v Speaker 1>and tied to the reopening. We're just looking towards maybe

0:35:29.840 --> 0:35:32.200
<v Speaker 1>buying them, you know, maybe in the lows in in

0:35:32.200 --> 0:35:35.279
<v Speaker 1>in August or September. Um. I think August is maybe

0:35:35.280 --> 0:35:37.759
<v Speaker 1>the third worst month for the market, you know, since

0:35:37.800 --> 0:35:40.120
<v Speaker 1>the fifties, and I think September is the worst month.

0:35:40.200 --> 0:35:42.160
<v Speaker 1>So maybe we get an opportunity to buy some things

0:35:42.200 --> 0:35:44.520
<v Speaker 1>a little bit cheaper if we're patient and selling in

0:35:44.560 --> 0:35:47.000
<v Speaker 1>their strength with you know, firms like Goldman raising their

0:35:47.000 --> 0:35:50.600
<v Speaker 1>price target on the SMP to getting getting everybody excited.

0:35:50.640 --> 0:35:52.759
<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, an opportunity to sell into that

0:35:52.800 --> 0:35:54.279
<v Speaker 1>and looked to buy I think maybe a little bit

0:35:54.320 --> 0:35:58.520
<v Speaker 1>cheaper and some more volatile days uh in the months ahead, yeah, perhaps,

0:35:58.520 --> 0:36:01.400
<v Speaker 1>I mean we're only five days into the into the month,

0:36:01.520 --> 0:36:04.640
<v Speaker 1>not even five trading days into the month. And uh,

0:36:04.719 --> 0:36:07.080
<v Speaker 1>the nasdacs already hired at one point four percent, the

0:36:07.280 --> 0:36:09.520
<v Speaker 1>SMP highed by close to seven tenths of one percent.

0:36:09.640 --> 0:36:11.680
<v Speaker 1>So we'll have to wait and see, Sandy, what what

0:36:11.680 --> 0:36:14.279
<v Speaker 1>would be that that thing that sends markets lower. We

0:36:14.280 --> 0:36:17.839
<v Speaker 1>haven't had a five percent pullback in close for a year. Yeah,

0:36:18.400 --> 0:36:21.080
<v Speaker 1>I think if you saw, um, you know, all of

0:36:21.120 --> 0:36:23.080
<v Speaker 1>a sudden, we're going to paper maybe a little bit sooner.

0:36:23.280 --> 0:36:26.000
<v Speaker 1>I think people do expect, you know, um, you know,

0:36:26.040 --> 0:36:28.000
<v Speaker 1>the FED to stop buying them, you know, the d

0:36:28.120 --> 0:36:31.160
<v Speaker 1>and twenty billion of treasuring agencies each month. And perhaps

0:36:31.239 --> 0:36:34.560
<v Speaker 1>if we um, if if that becomes more concrete, you know,

0:36:34.640 --> 0:36:36.279
<v Speaker 1>that could start, you know, by the end of this year.

0:36:36.680 --> 0:36:40.160
<v Speaker 1>You know, perhaps uh, you know, the stimulus party isn't over,

0:36:40.200 --> 0:36:42.279
<v Speaker 1>but maybe they start to flicker the lights, you know

0:36:42.320 --> 0:36:45.399
<v Speaker 1>a little bit faster and um. And so I think

0:36:45.400 --> 0:36:47.800
<v Speaker 1>when the you know, when the when the FED, um,

0:36:47.840 --> 0:36:50.520
<v Speaker 1>you know, it starts to react more and really truly

0:36:50.560 --> 0:36:53.560
<v Speaker 1>becomes um, you know a little bit more hawkish than

0:36:53.600 --> 0:36:56.000
<v Speaker 1>that could be. You know, something that they could send

0:36:56.000 --> 0:36:59.280
<v Speaker 1>the market. You know, um, a little bit further south,

0:37:00.160 --> 0:37:01.680
<v Speaker 1>send you one of the names that you've written up

0:37:01.680 --> 0:37:05.080
<v Speaker 1>as Caesar's. I'm a big fan of the gaming industry

0:37:05.080 --> 0:37:07.919
<v Speaker 1>and was fascinated by the economics and the financials. There,

0:37:07.960 --> 0:37:10.160
<v Speaker 1>give us your call on Caesar's here, seems like it

0:37:10.200 --> 0:37:11.680
<v Speaker 1>would be it would fit in with your thesis of

0:37:11.719 --> 0:37:16.080
<v Speaker 1>a really good reopening play. Yeah, and and you know,

0:37:16.120 --> 0:37:17.920
<v Speaker 1>these guys have done an amazing job. I mean, sometimes

0:37:17.960 --> 0:37:19.520
<v Speaker 1>you've been on the horse and and sometimes you've been

0:37:19.560 --> 0:37:21.680
<v Speaker 1>on the jockey. And Tom Reeg has just been an

0:37:21.760 --> 0:37:25.000
<v Speaker 1>unbelievable operator. He came from Eldorado Resorts and has done

0:37:25.040 --> 0:37:27.839
<v Speaker 1>some great things with you know, is Capri and Tropicana

0:37:27.880 --> 0:37:30.279
<v Speaker 1>and things like that. And so he actually came in

0:37:30.280 --> 0:37:33.560
<v Speaker 1>and bought Caesar's and he's already um, you know, cutting

0:37:33.600 --> 0:37:36.520
<v Speaker 1>expenses and doing these things that are um incredible to

0:37:36.840 --> 0:37:39.359
<v Speaker 1>get his you know, hopefully long term operating margins up

0:37:39.360 --> 0:37:42.880
<v Speaker 1>to and and you know, still they're talking about ten

0:37:42.960 --> 0:37:46.760
<v Speaker 1>dollars of free cash flow shares is certainly in play

0:37:47.000 --> 0:37:49.040
<v Speaker 1>in this This sector kind of trades at eleven and

0:37:49.120 --> 0:37:51.279
<v Speaker 1>thirteen times, so you could be looking at a hundred

0:37:52.000 --> 0:37:56.040
<v Speaker 1>thirty dollar stock. UM. You know, he is very committed

0:37:56.080 --> 0:37:59.480
<v Speaker 1>to you know, the the online gaming as well as

0:37:59.680 --> 0:38:02.719
<v Speaker 1>UM you know, as well as sports betting, and you know,

0:38:02.840 --> 0:38:05.360
<v Speaker 1>four billion dollar acquisition of William Hill, which is the

0:38:05.400 --> 0:38:08.120
<v Speaker 1>third largest sports book operator in the country, is all

0:38:08.160 --> 0:38:09.719
<v Speaker 1>gonna be run through Caesars. And then you get the

0:38:10.160 --> 0:38:13.640
<v Speaker 1>you know, sixty million total rewards customers. It's just, um,

0:38:13.960 --> 0:38:16.319
<v Speaker 1>you know, an amazing an amazing feed. So I think

0:38:16.680 --> 0:38:18.799
<v Speaker 1>I think these guys have a lot of Uh. I

0:38:18.800 --> 0:38:21.319
<v Speaker 1>still think it's very early and what he's capable of doing,

0:38:21.360 --> 0:38:24.080
<v Speaker 1>and he's just had such a good track record that UM,

0:38:24.200 --> 0:38:26.239
<v Speaker 1>you know, we're excited about owning that name, especially if

0:38:26.239 --> 0:38:28.759
<v Speaker 1>you get a sell off you know, uh, if people

0:38:28.760 --> 0:38:31.520
<v Speaker 1>get worried about you know, casino is closing and things

0:38:31.560 --> 0:38:33.520
<v Speaker 1>like that, that's just gonna be a great opportunity over

0:38:33.520 --> 0:38:36.000
<v Speaker 1>the next you know, twelve to eighteen months. What about

0:38:36.000 --> 0:38:40.400
<v Speaker 1>a bank like First Hawaiian. Yeah, I think that's a similar, um,

0:38:40.840 --> 0:38:43.759
<v Speaker 1>a similar situation where if you can get um, you know,

0:38:44.200 --> 0:38:46.160
<v Speaker 1>if you can get into a you know, maybe a

0:38:46.239 --> 0:38:49.200
<v Speaker 1>more reasonable valuation with UM you know, again with interest

0:38:49.239 --> 0:38:52.480
<v Speaker 1>rates you know falling here and really hurting financials. UM,

0:38:52.560 --> 0:38:54.360
<v Speaker 1>these guys have a you know, three point eight percent

0:38:54.400 --> 0:38:56.879
<v Speaker 1>dividend yield and looks very good when you're when you're

0:38:56.880 --> 0:38:59.040
<v Speaker 1>comparing it to a you know, one point two percent

0:38:59.080 --> 0:39:02.440
<v Speaker 1>ten year treasury um. These guys never took tarp Um,

0:39:02.480 --> 0:39:04.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, pretty pretty conservative, you know, back in the

0:39:04.480 --> 0:39:07.960
<v Speaker 1>financial crisis. Never took tarp Um founded in eighteen fifty eight,

0:39:08.000 --> 0:39:10.400
<v Speaker 1>so really kind of a duopoly with Bank of Hawaii.

0:39:10.719 --> 0:39:12.960
<v Speaker 1>And they're also UM sort of a play on not

0:39:13.040 --> 0:39:15.480
<v Speaker 1>only the military that that's over there, but also UM

0:39:15.520 --> 0:39:19.000
<v Speaker 1>the reopening UM and and you know, tourism coming back.

0:39:19.400 --> 0:39:21.480
<v Speaker 1>And I think it's one that UM doesn't seem to

0:39:21.560 --> 0:39:23.919
<v Speaker 1>me to be a UM, you know, real risky at all,

0:39:23.960 --> 0:39:26.120
<v Speaker 1>but but certainly offers a lot of upside should you

0:39:26.120 --> 0:39:28.480
<v Speaker 1>see rates you know, drift higher as we get past

0:39:28.520 --> 0:39:33.040
<v Speaker 1>this delta variant. Sandy Villery, portfolio manager at Villery and

0:39:33.120 --> 0:39:36.280
<v Speaker 1>a company two billion dollars in assets under management, joining

0:39:36.360 --> 0:39:38.960
<v Speaker 1>us this afternoon from New Orleans. Sandy, thanks so much

0:39:39.000 --> 0:39:44.520
<v Speaker 1>for taking the time. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.

0:39:44.600 --> 0:39:48.200
<v Speaker 1>Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com,

0:39:48.239 --> 0:39:49.880
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0:39:49.920 --> 0:39:53.000
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0:39:53.080 --> 0:39:54.600
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