Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanobek. We're here every day bringing
Speaker 1: you the latest news from the world of business and finance,
Speaker 1: plus technology, politics, economics, all harnessing the power of Business
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Speaker 1: download Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com.
Speaker 1: You can also listen to our radio show at two
Speaker 1: pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on
Speaker 1: YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. We went through some of
Speaker 1: the headlines when it comes to returning to work. Paul
Speaker 1: Wells Fargo pushing its return to office plan to October.
Speaker 1: Florida's hospitals here in the US have been strained by
Speaker 1: delusion COVID patients UH Closer to home here in New
Speaker 1: York City cases are spiking as well. Let's get an
Speaker 1: international perspective, a perspective from around the world. Joining us
Speaker 1: now is Dr Chizuba we Nady and associate scientists at
Speaker 1: the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All so
Speaker 1: the Nigeria, Country director at the Johns Hopkins International Vaccine
Speaker 1: Access Center, Dr Wenatti joins us from Nigeria. Thanks so
Speaker 1: much for joining us. How are you doing. I'm fine,
Speaker 1: Thank you, It's great to be here. Well, it's great
Speaker 1: to have you on the show. Give us we we
Speaker 1: do focus. We have been focusing a lot on what's
Speaker 1: been happening here in the United States. UM, give us
Speaker 1: an update from Nigeria, because according to the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker,
Speaker 1: only one percent of the population has been inoculated. That's right,
Speaker 1: only one percent of Nigerian's have received the vaccine. And
Speaker 1: that one percent is courtesy of the Kovacs facility. UM.
Speaker 1: We received three point nine million doses way back in February,
Speaker 1: and the government ruled out the vaccination program quite effectively
Speaker 1: and used of all the vaccines. And I have to
Speaker 1: say that one of the concerns with the vaccines is
Speaker 1: the risk of expiration, and so the government was able
Speaker 1: to roll it out without any single vaccine expiring. UM
Speaker 1: and and that really speaks to the need and the
Speaker 1: demand for the vaccine. There is a latent demand for
Speaker 1: these vaccines. Despite the fact that we have heard about
Speaker 1: vaccine hesitancy. There are some people who are heasy, that
Speaker 1: for sure, but there are still quite a number of
Speaker 1: people who want these vaccines. UM there is now a
Speaker 1: new batch of vaccine that we just received m August
Speaker 1: first four million doses from the US government actually through
Speaker 1: recovered facility, and so plants are on their way right
Speaker 1: now to UM get those vaccines rolled out and people vaccinated.
Speaker 1: But as you can see, four million doses will only
Speaker 1: bring us up to one two percent vaccinated. So there's
Speaker 1: still quite a lot of on net need for vaccination,
Speaker 1: for COVID vaccination in Nigeria and indeed in all of
Speaker 1: Africa and many lower middle income countries. So talking on it,
Speaker 1: that's kind of where I wanted to go. What's what's
Speaker 1: the plan or what's expectation in Nigeria and across Africa
Speaker 1: for maybe the intermediate term over the next six months
Speaker 1: in terms of percentage vaccinated, how high do you think
Speaker 1: you can get that number and over what time frame?
Speaker 1: It's very hard to say because as you know, most
Speaker 1: of the global vaccine supplies have been locked up by
Speaker 1: you know, reach out countries who got in there first,
Speaker 1: and you know they the manufacturing and some of SUCU
Speaker 1: companies to produce vaccines for them and secure those vaccine doses.
Speaker 1: But now we're seeing more and more of the rich
Speaker 1: countries UM donating some of their doses to the COVAC facility.
Speaker 1: We know that the COVACT facility your mart to of
Speaker 1: the population of the countries that they would provide vaccine
Speaker 1: to cover those and that would be over a period
Speaker 1: of um you know, from from February that was going
Speaker 1: to be an over a period of one year, one
Speaker 1: and a half years. So in the next six months
Speaker 1: m we are hoping that we should be able to
Speaker 1: get enough vaccines from both the KOVAC Facility as well
Speaker 1: as the African Union who is making our invent also
Speaker 1: to provide some vaccines UM to to try and get
Speaker 1: to that. But we're not sure for if we're going
Speaker 1: to get to because right now the global vaccine supply
Speaker 1: is in very very short um supply and UM the
Speaker 1: prospects for producing enough to to feed the world or
Speaker 1: to satisfy the world need is actually quite a bleak.
Speaker 1: You know. Well, one thing that I've been thinking about
Speaker 1: a lot and look in recent months is the fact
Speaker 1: that in the United States we are so wealthy when
Speaker 1: it comes to vaccines, and there are so many Americans
Speaker 1: right now who are sick because they did not take
Speaker 1: a vaccine. And around the world there are so many
Speaker 1: people who would get in line to get the vaccine
Speaker 1: that is just sitting there at a drug store waiting
Speaker 1: for an American to come and get it. From a
Speaker 1: from the perspective of a public health expert, a physician,
Speaker 1: and somebody who's living in a country where only one
Speaker 1: percent is vaccinated, what goes through your head when you
Speaker 1: see that? Yeah, I I I find that. I mean,
Speaker 1: that's that's unfortunate really because, um, there are many people
Speaker 1: elsewhere who would line up, like you say, for these vaccines.
Speaker 1: But but that is that is the reality in in
Speaker 1: in the US, and I think it will also be
Speaker 1: the reality in now and middle income countries when we
Speaker 1: do have enough vaccines. There will in every population there
Speaker 1: will be some people who are hesitant. Right, And so
Speaker 1: US has reached that state where you have you have
Speaker 1: satisfied those who will take the vaccine immediately, and you're
Speaker 1: now in the in the phase where you need to, um,
Speaker 1: you need to encourage age those who are still on
Speaker 1: the sense about the vaccine. You encourage them to get
Speaker 1: the vaccine. But there there are some people who will
Speaker 1: not get the vaccine, and that's that's the truth. I
Speaker 1: think the US vaccine mandates. That's a hot topic here
Speaker 1: in the United States and I guess other developed markets
Speaker 1: that have relatively high vaccination rates. Do you think that's
Speaker 1: something that should be enforced either at the you know,
Speaker 1: the government level, or maybe just at a private level.
Speaker 1: If you want to come into my restaurant, you've got
Speaker 1: to prove that you've been vaccinated. Personally, I think so. Um,
Speaker 1: with the way the COVID transmission is happening and the
Speaker 1: risk of of viral variants that you know, could cost
Speaker 1: more harm than good. UM, I think that clearly we
Speaker 1: if we have more vaccination, is going to slow the
Speaker 1: spread of of the of the virus and the variants
Speaker 1: and reduce the odds that even more dangerous variant will emerge.
Speaker 1: And that's something we really need to worry about, UM
Speaker 1: right now. I think many employers want to see that
Speaker 1: their employee show their vascination cards. So at Hopkins, for example, UM,
Speaker 1: there's no mandates per se, but if you're not vaccinated,
Speaker 1: you have to be tested often and so you know,
Speaker 1: it's still an inconvenient for you to get tested maybe
Speaker 1: every other day or wearing masks consistently. So I think
Speaker 1: that they definitely has to do something to be done
Speaker 1: if either there's evactive mandates in place or there is
Speaker 1: stricter and more regular testing, because we don't want an
Speaker 1: individual's freedom to infringe on the health of the public
Speaker 1: or the community, So that sense of responsibility must be upheld.
Speaker 1: What is the best way to instill that sense of
Speaker 1: responsibility in someone who says, well, forcing me to get
Speaker 1: a vaccine is a threat to my individual liberty. The
Speaker 1: best way I think is is to put the responsibility
Speaker 1: back on them right to not put the public at risk.
Speaker 1: So I think what they're doing in in in France
Speaker 1: is if you're not vaccinated, then you stay home. Those
Speaker 1: who are vaccinated now have the liberty to go out
Speaker 1: because we're not going to close the economy down for
Speaker 1: those who refuse to get vaccinated and continue to be
Speaker 1: a threat to the public. Help. So, Um, while we
Speaker 1: don't want to infringe on individual liberties and freedoms, um,
Speaker 1: we would have to put the owners back on the
Speaker 1: individual who refuses to get vaccinated to you know, to
Speaker 1: to keep from spreading the disease to other people, So
Speaker 1: you would you if you're not vaccinated, then you would
Speaker 1: have to wear masks, you would have to test frequently,
Speaker 1: and you would have to prove that you're not a
Speaker 1: risk to the public. So I think it's a matter
Speaker 1: of putting a carrot and a stick, and I think
Speaker 1: the stick should be wielded where people, you know, refuse
Speaker 1: to get vaccinated if there's no medical reason for them
Speaker 1: not to get vaccinated. So dr wee not. The delta
Speaker 1: variant is obviously the dominant variant on a global scale.
Speaker 1: Do we know anything about how long it will remain
Speaker 1: and driving these surges? Is it just a factor of
Speaker 1: when something else comes along or is there a scenario
Speaker 1: where this dies out as a variant? He should we
Speaker 1: think about it? The way to think about it is that, um,
Speaker 1: the more the virus is transmitted, the more the risk
Speaker 1: of variant emergence. So the delta variant right now, obviously
Speaker 1: you know the results of continuous transmission. The way we
Speaker 1: are going to get rid of the delta variant it
Speaker 1: is for you know, more people to get vaccinated and
Speaker 1: for us to curb transmission by maintaining the same um.
Speaker 1: You know, public health measures social distance and wearing masks,
Speaker 1: avoiding crowds and things like that. So if we look
Speaker 1: at the if we look at the epidemic curve of
Speaker 1: let's say the alpha, we can really tell with the
Speaker 1: alpha because alpha is less transmissible than the delta variants.
Speaker 1: So we're actually looking at a longer term UM scenario
Speaker 1: where if we don't put enough measures in place, the
Speaker 1: delta variants might actually stay longer than we saw, the
Speaker 1: alpha variant being like a major driver of of of
Speaker 1: the epidemic. So I would say that UM, for now,
Speaker 1: it's really really important for us to get the vaccination
Speaker 1: rates of around the world because another variant might emerge
Speaker 1: from a part of the world where vaccines are not available.
Speaker 1: This is exactly what we were warned about months ago,
Speaker 1: and we're seeing it happen right now. Dr She is
Speaker 1: about Wenati, Associate Scientist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School
Speaker 1: Public Health, also Nigeria Country Director at the Johns Hopkins
Speaker 1: International Vaccines Center, the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public
Speaker 1: Health that is supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder A
Speaker 1: Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg philanthropies. Well, the U S economy
Speaker 1: is in the midst of a historic comeback. It's happening, though,
Speaker 1: with the lowest rate of labor force participation in more
Speaker 1: than four decades and a record number of unfilled jobs.
Speaker 1: It leaves economists, policymakers and investors wondering where have all
Speaker 1: the workers gone? Those are the words from Olivia Rockman.
Speaker 1: She's US economy reporter for Bloomberg News. She's joining us
Speaker 1: on the phone from San Diego. Also, Joe Webber's joining us.
Speaker 1: He's at her at Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us
Speaker 1: on the access line from Massachusetts. Yes, San Diego, that's
Speaker 1: pretty nice place to be right now, Olivia, I can
Speaker 1: speak like that as a Californian, Joel, Where have all
Speaker 1: the workers gone? It has been a question that companies
Speaker 1: UM an economists have just been obsessing about um since
Speaker 1: the economy started to pick up steam. And there's help
Speaker 1: wanted signs. The biggest thing I've been seeing a like
Speaker 1: signing bonuses and like this isn't like nothing. We're talking
Speaker 1: like thousands of dollars on up and it's all on
Speaker 1: an attempt to incentivize workers to come out of the
Speaker 1: closet because they have just literally it seems like they've
Speaker 1: gone missing. But it turns out that, um, it's not
Speaker 1: quite as big of a mystery, um as it might seem,
Speaker 1: and that Olivia sort of helped UH do some sleuthing
Speaker 1: and figure out what was at the bottom of it.
Speaker 1: And and Olivia, I'll turn it over to you. But
Speaker 1: part of this is frankly just because of boomers, right,
Speaker 1: that's right. So one of the big factors is that
Speaker 1: boomers retired at double the rate that they did in
Speaker 1: twenty nineteen last year, and so we have this highly
Speaker 1: productive group of workers that now is basically out for
Speaker 1: for good. And then at the same time, we're seeing
Speaker 1: the birth rate decline and we're not seeing young people
Speaker 1: and try to work force at as fact of wait
Speaker 1: as those generations before them did. Well, you know, Olivia
Speaker 1: al from Jersey called me and said, get back to work.
Speaker 1: So here I am back back to work. But one
Speaker 1: of the issues that I think some people may have
Speaker 1: is maybe their skills just kind of lapse here and
Speaker 1: they might not be as employable as maybe they were
Speaker 1: when they're in their workforce. And I'm thinking maybe about
Speaker 1: some some of the older demos um what are you
Speaker 1: finding as at least ages. So it's of course historical
Speaker 1: that employers discriminate against people who are older when it
Speaker 1: comes to hiring because they know they won't get as
Speaker 1: many years out of that worker. At the same time,
Speaker 1: while skills may lapse when you spend more time out
Speaker 1: of the workforce, it also means that if you've had
Speaker 1: these long resume gaps when you're applying for a job,
Speaker 1: employers often, you know, let those resumes out or aren't
Speaker 1: as quick to hire, and so it makes it harder
Speaker 1: for people to jump back into the workforce the longer
Speaker 1: they've been away. So what do economists and analysts who
Speaker 1: you speak to say needs to happen when it comes
Speaker 1: to policy making decisions to encourage employees to get back
Speaker 1: to work. There are a number of factors here. So
Speaker 1: one of them that we've kind of found over the
Speaker 1: last six months or so is a childcare problem. And
Speaker 1: so parents, particularly women, left the labor force at high rates,
Speaker 1: and some see the cost of childcare and they say,
Speaker 1: you know what, why go back at a low wage
Speaker 1: when I can just save on that cost. And so
Speaker 1: some of what Biden has proposed in this trillions of
Speaker 1: dollar packages childcare castability. So that's one thing. Another thing
Speaker 1: is the opioid crisis that's caused a lot of people
Speaker 1: to lead the labor force, and again that takes a
Speaker 1: crackdown on you know, rehabilitation and help for these individuals.
Speaker 1: So there's so many categories in each one sort of
Speaker 1: has its own policy structure around it. I want to
Speaker 1: talk more about the opoids, um, because when you think
Speaker 1: about the scale of an epidemic like it was and predated, um, uh,
Speaker 1: this pandemic obviously, um, it's easy to maybe think like
Speaker 1: it it wouldn't have had as big of a dint
Speaker 1: as it seems to be happen be having. So like,
Speaker 1: how are economists looking at at the implications from from opioids?
Speaker 1: How how big is that in terms of the missing
Speaker 1: element in this labor force. So drug overdose death in
Speaker 1: particular rose by thirty percent last year. Um. That's a
Speaker 1: huge increase from the years prior. In fact, opioid death
Speaker 1: had been kind of plateau going and have now increased again.
Speaker 1: And the problem there is that in areas where addiction
Speaker 1: rates are higher, we see lower rates of labor force participation.
Speaker 1: And so as this spreads, it sort of worsens the issue. Um,
Speaker 1: Like we've seen a d C for example, been a
Speaker 1: huge problem for many of the employers there. And so
Speaker 1: when you think about, um, what can be done, I mean, like,
Speaker 1: how do you how do you get on the other
Speaker 1: side of this from a policy perspective. So, of course,
Speaker 1: as I mentioned, Biden is proposing this massive infrastructure plan
Speaker 1: which has many different components that are aiming to help
Speaker 1: get people back into the labor force. But as we
Speaker 1: say in our story, you know, labor force participation is
Speaker 1: at a forty year low right now, um, right, Like
Speaker 1: we're back to the seventies exactly. And the seventies was
Speaker 1: a time in which we had you know, historic recession,
Speaker 1: inflation was high, and there were cultural differences then as well. Um.
Speaker 1: And so while we did sort of climb out of
Speaker 1: the pandemic low, we haven't seen a lot of progress
Speaker 1: in labor force participation since August of last year. And
Speaker 1: so it's going to take a lot for for you know,
Speaker 1: policymakers both on the said side and on the White
Speaker 1: House side to come up with solutions to get people
Speaker 1: to start working again. The seventies were quite good for me,
Speaker 1: I'll just point out, all right, let's talk automation here, Olivia.
Speaker 1: When I go to the CBS and get my four
Speaker 1: or five items, I just scan it myself in schedattle.
Speaker 1: I mean, so that's got to be an issue. What's
Speaker 1: really interesting here is in prior recessions, we always saw
Speaker 1: automation coming in kind of to replace manufacturing jobs, factory jobs.
Speaker 1: But because of the health crisis, we've seen automation now
Speaker 1: replacing service workers as well, whether that's in food service
Speaker 1: or as you mentioned as CBS or grocery store. And
Speaker 1: so we've sort of seen what happened in Pire recessions
Speaker 1: now accelerate on the automation front. And in the US,
Speaker 1: we really don't invest that much in reskilling, which would
Speaker 1: help people who've lost their jobs two robots kind of
Speaker 1: get back into the workforce, and so that's that's really
Speaker 1: where we're lacking in that area. Hey, Olivia, just in
Speaker 1: the last thirty seconds that we have with you, the
Speaker 1: jobs report tomorrow it's expected to show that the US
Speaker 1: added just about seventy five thousand jobs in July. What's
Speaker 1: the number that you're going to be paying attention to, though, Well,
Speaker 1: this story is all about labor fourth participation and economists
Speaker 1: for estimating that labor first participation is going to barely
Speaker 1: move upward. And so you know that's going to continue
Speaker 1: to point to this trend that there's going to need
Speaker 1: to be more happy on the policy front to get
Speaker 1: us back. Olivia Rockman is US economy reporter at Bloomberg News.
Speaker 1: She joins us on the phone from San Diego along
Speaker 1: with Joel weber Eder at Bloomberg Business Week. He's joining
Speaker 1: us from Massachusetts. Olivia's story is featured in the current
Speaker 1: issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine. You can read it
Speaker 1: now at the Bloomberg Terminal and on Bloomberg dot com
Speaker 1: slash of business Week. This is Bloomberg business Week with
Speaker 1: Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 1: All right, Paul Sweeney sitting here for Carol Master today
Speaker 1: along with Tips Stenovic, Boy me, M and A is
Speaker 1: alive and well. And that whole concept of content is
Speaker 1: king is absolutely making itself known. And I always described
Speaker 1: that term content is king. It's widely used, but I
Speaker 1: describe it to Sumner Redstone, the media mogul. He used
Speaker 1: to just say that all the time because he owned
Speaker 1: a lot of content. Uh, let's take a look at
Speaker 1: some of these deals with Jerry Smith, media reporter for
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News. He joins us on the phone from New
Speaker 1: York City. So, Jerry, first, we had Rees Witherspoon selling
Speaker 1: her Hello Sunshine Media Group to nine million bucks. I
Speaker 1: think this pe folks. And then just today South Parks
Speaker 1: creator signed a new nine million dollar deal with Viacom
Speaker 1: CBS is what's going on out there? Seems like an
Speaker 1: arms race. Yeah, that's absolutely right. I mean there's a
Speaker 1: real land grab right now for high quality programming as
Speaker 1: all the big media giants and tech companies are trying
Speaker 1: to um, you know, fill their streaming services with as
Speaker 1: many TV shows and movies as possible. So this new
Speaker 1: deal Jerry runs through, it covers six more cycles of
Speaker 1: South Park, it includes fourteen made for streaming movies. That's
Speaker 1: the part that really stuck out to me. So this
Speaker 1: is these are for Paramount plus because it's really confusing
Speaker 1: because you can watch south Park on HBO Max. Yeah
Speaker 1: that's right. I mean that's an example of just how
Speaker 1: um you know splintered. The full streaming world is where
Speaker 1: you know, the old episodes of the show might be
Speaker 1: in one streaming service and the new reboot of the
Speaker 1: show is on another. I mean, there's another example where
Speaker 1: Peacock is doing a reboot of The Fresh Prince of
Speaker 1: bel Air, but the old episodes of Fresh Princes are
Speaker 1: on HBO Max. I think ya com CBS. Their deal
Speaker 1: with the South Park creators runs longer than their license
Speaker 1: to deal with HBO Max, and I think the strategy
Speaker 1: there is eventually those shows, those old episodes of South
Speaker 1: Park end up on Paramount Plus along with all the
Speaker 1: new shows and movies that the creators are making. Jerry,
Speaker 1: I'm getting to the point of being and I'm a
Speaker 1: media analyst, have covered this stuff for thirty five years
Speaker 1: of getting completely overwhelmed by the choices there, but I
Speaker 1: cannot report that after again thirty or five years, I
Speaker 1: finally cut the cord for no other reason than we
Speaker 1: sold our house, you know. Um, But it's interesting here.
Speaker 1: What do you think is next? I mean, are we
Speaker 1: can see more and more of these A list people,
Speaker 1: you know, I kind of go out there and try
Speaker 1: to form production companies and but also content and sell out. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, this is really an incredible time. If you
Speaker 1: are you know, independent studio, I mean Lebron james Is
Speaker 1: Production Studio is also exploring its sale. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: I think that there's uh, you know, these streaming services
Speaker 1: they just need more and more programming and certainly they're
Speaker 1: just in how studios are making a lot of it.
Speaker 1: But if you're an independent producer, I mean you have
Speaker 1: your your phone is probably ringing off the hook right
Speaker 1: now with streaming services that are are looking to do
Speaker 1: deals with you. Well to that, and Jerry, you have
Speaker 1: a new story out in Bloomberg Business. We can current issue.
Speaker 1: It's all about none other than the daily shows. John Stewart.
Speaker 1: He's going to Apple TV. This is cool. Yeah, this
Speaker 1: is cool. And and this is interesting because I remember
Speaker 1: years ago this was what Jerry where uh hbo signed
Speaker 1: a deal with Jon Stewart after he was on Comedy
Speaker 1: Central and nothing ever came of that. Yeah that's right.
Speaker 1: He Um, you know, he had an idea and a
Speaker 1: very ambitious idea to do some sort of animated show
Speaker 1: related to current events and it uh and it just
Speaker 1: died in production. Um. But yeah, he has a new
Speaker 1: show that's coming out on Apple TV TV plus next month. Um,
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a little bit different format in the
Speaker 1: Daily Show. He's going to spend an hour really doing
Speaker 1: a deep dive on a certain specific topic. Um. He
Speaker 1: hasn't said what these topics are going to be yet,
Speaker 1: but it sounds similar to what John Oliver does, a
Speaker 1: former colleague of Stuart's from The Daily Show, John Oliver
Speaker 1: as a show on HBO called Last Week Tonight where he, um,
Speaker 1: you know, spends much of the program just um doing
Speaker 1: a really in depth piece on on a specific topic. Um.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean Apple TV Plus has has sort
Speaker 1: of flown under the radar in the whole discussion about
Speaker 1: the streaming wars. Um, certainly Apple has very deep pockets,
Speaker 1: but um, in streaming service, the library is a lot
Speaker 1: thinner than um, you know, Netflix or HBO Max. But
Speaker 1: they certainly, you know, they have a hit show right now,
Speaker 1: Ted Lasso. Everybody seems to be talking about Ted Lasso. Um,
Speaker 1: you know in this Jon Stewart show. I know they're
Speaker 1: hoping that that's going to be generating a lot of buzz.
Speaker 1: And it's an important moment for Apple Apple TV Plus
Speaker 1: because a lot of the people who signed up got
Speaker 1: one year free trials and those were extended and extended again,
Speaker 1: and now they're starting to wear off, so that, you know,
Speaker 1: Apple TV plus really needs some compelling content to keep
Speaker 1: people around once they're free trial in. Yeah, I mean
Speaker 1: it's and it's not for lack of resources, right j
Speaker 1: When you think about the balance sheet of Apple, if
Speaker 1: they if they really really wanted to get in here,
Speaker 1: there's no opping them. Do we have any idea of
Speaker 1: the terms of this John Stewart deal? Uh, you know,
Speaker 1: I mean he's going to be producing other programming for
Speaker 1: Apple as well. I think, um, you know, but it's
Speaker 1: definitely Apple is As you said, they've got very deep pockets.
Speaker 1: I think everyone in Hollywood has been waiting for them
Speaker 1: to start taking some big swings. Uh. You know, they
Speaker 1: have Oprah Winfrey, They have a lot of really big
Speaker 1: name talent um you know that that are making shows
Speaker 1: and movies for them, and I think it's um, you know,
Speaker 1: the John Stewart Show will be a really interesting example
Speaker 1: also because um, you know that the whole late night
Speaker 1: um comedian talk shows haven't always translated well on streaming services.
Speaker 1: We haven't seen anything that's really broken through in the
Speaker 1: same way that you know, the broadcast networks with the
Speaker 1: Tonight show. UM, you know that that that they have,
Speaker 1: so that'll be really interesting to see. Um, you know
Speaker 1: how John Stewart Show does. Hey, Jerry, can't let you
Speaker 1: leave without talking about Viacom CBS because I know you're
Speaker 1: up early covering those earnings. Today shares a Viacom CBS
Speaker 1: higher by more than seven right now. UM, what's the
Speaker 1: headline there? Well, certainly streaming. Uh, you know, they're starting
Speaker 1: to see some traction with with Paramount Plus. They're starting
Speaker 1: to expand internationally. They announced a big deal where they're
Speaker 1: going to be launching Paramount plus UM on Sky's European networks.
Speaker 1: That's the deal Skies, owned by Comcast. There was a
Speaker 1: lot of chatter about maybe Comcasting Viacom CBS could do
Speaker 1: some sort of m and a, but at least for now,
Speaker 1: it looks like they're just going to be partnering on
Speaker 1: UM launching streaming services in Europe. UM. Also, the ad
Speaker 1: market is bouncing back. Last year, advertisers really pulled back
Speaker 1: at the height of the pandemic, and now they're starting
Speaker 1: to spend again. And every media company now is UM
Speaker 1: you know, saying that the markets bouncing back. Amazing good stuff.
Speaker 1: Jerry Smith, media reporter for Bloomberg News, joining us on
Speaker 1: the phone from New York. Lads of m n A
Speaker 1: some act positions looking for content in the media world.
Speaker 1: Taking a look right now at the real time price
Speaker 1: of robin Hood took her h O O D down
Speaker 1: twenty two today. That follows three days of gains, still
Speaker 1: though trading at fifty four dollars a share, significantly higher
Speaker 1: than the I p O price of just a week ago.
Speaker 1: The reason for this decline today investors filing to sell stock,
Speaker 1: venture capitalists who are cashing in billions of dollars after
Speaker 1: robin Hood's increase in share price in recent days. Annie
Speaker 1: Massa is investing reporter at Bloomberg News. She joins us
Speaker 1: on the phone from New York City. Uh, Annie, Uh,
Speaker 1: it's the sell off has accelerated since we last spoke
Speaker 1: on quick Take a few hours ago. Uh. Is this
Speaker 1: just a result of the volatility that we've seen in
Speaker 1: robin Hood in in the last six days. It's a
Speaker 1: real reversal from what we were seeing earlier this week.
Speaker 1: As you mentioned, we had a three day stretch earlier
Speaker 1: this week when robin Hood's price doubled and that it
Speaker 1: was a turnaround from I p O day when it
Speaker 1: sold off. So you've seen these big, big swings in
Speaker 1: robin Hood over the course of the past week and
Speaker 1: it's only been a public company for a single week. Yeah,
Speaker 1: any what jumped out of me was the lock up
Speaker 1: or lack there of. On any of my equity deals,
Speaker 1: you'd have to have a six month lock up here,
Speaker 1: but these guys didn't. Why not? So this this is
Speaker 1: a bit different. Some of the reason that we've seen
Speaker 1: this sell off today and one of the surprises that
Speaker 1: came out this morning was you're seeing some of the
Speaker 1: big venture capital backers of robin Hood UM getting the
Speaker 1: opportunity to UH sell shares to the tune of ninety
Speaker 1: eight million shares. Now that's not all happening at once,
Speaker 1: but they do have the ability to do that and UM,
Speaker 1: as you mentioned the in a typical I p O process,
Speaker 1: those lockups are in place to kind of stabilize the
Speaker 1: price of the stock went in the public and robin
Speaker 1: Hood had a couple other factors in play here. They
Speaker 1: had an unusually large allocusian to retail. They have these
Speaker 1: provisions for their venture backers, who, as you remember, kind
Speaker 1: of failed them out earlier in the year during the
Speaker 1: game stop and and C volatility UM they raised an
Speaker 1: emergency more than three billion dollars UM, I mean nearly
Speaker 1: overnight from their VC backers, so that um those dynamics
Speaker 1: are a bit more unique to Robin Hood. Any Even
Speaker 1: though robin Hot stock is down right now, over the
Speaker 1: last three days, it's higher by more than do we
Speaker 1: know why the stock moved higher so quickly? Was this?
Speaker 1: Is this a meme stock? Now? Basically that's what it
Speaker 1: seems like. It's it's it's like nothing fundamental has changed, right,
Speaker 1: it does seem it does seem to have some of
Speaker 1: that means some of those meme stock characteristics, just seeing
Speaker 1: those crazy swings with no real fundamental change that we
Speaker 1: can identify UM and and the big retail participation. Something
Speaker 1: that's interesting about these dynamics with Robin Hood right now
Speaker 1: is there wasn't as much retail UM activity on the
Speaker 1: first day of trading, but it picked up pretty considerably
Speaker 1: in the past couple of days, even becoming the fourth
Speaker 1: most traded stock on retail trading platforms yesterday. So, I mean,
Speaker 1: the retail action has definitely arrived. It just arrived a
Speaker 1: few days after the I PM. Yeah, I'm going at
Speaker 1: the volume here. Over sixty four million shares have traded
Speaker 1: so far today. That feels like retail to me. And
Speaker 1: it has a company commented all about their stock price,
Speaker 1: you know, moving over the last several days. They haven't
Speaker 1: commented on it. They they've only pointed to statements that
Speaker 1: executives have made in the past about how they're keeping
Speaker 1: their eye on the long term. Here. Still, you have
Speaker 1: to imagine that at robin Hood headquarters or working from home,
Speaker 1: they're keeping an eye on this share price because yesterday
Speaker 1: the stock was held in multiple times for volatility. So
Speaker 1: that's the type of thing you can entirely ignore. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's just in the first That was just in the
Speaker 1: first you know, like the first eleven minutes of trading,
Speaker 1: I believe it was. It was a wild ride. Um
Speaker 1: any what what's the next catalyst that we should be
Speaker 1: looking for for robin Hood. I mean, since it's a
Speaker 1: meme stock, I hesitate to even ask the question because
Speaker 1: there's no sort of rhyme of reason as to why
Speaker 1: it moves. But given that we got this filing earlier
Speaker 1: today that sent the stock price plummeting, what are you
Speaker 1: on the lookout for. One important thing that we haven't
Speaker 1: touched on yet is that options on robin Hood began
Speaker 1: trading yesterday, so those uh lad a couple of days
Speaker 1: behind the day that the stocks started trading, So that
Speaker 1: may have amplified some of the volatility that we saw.
Speaker 1: And um, you know, hundreds of thousands of options were
Speaker 1: trading hands yesterday, so that added the action. But um,
Speaker 1: one other thing to look out for in the future
Speaker 1: is the resolution of some of the regulatory um inquiries
Speaker 1: that they've revealed. Even in a couple of days leading
Speaker 1: up to the I p O, there are still very
Speaker 1: much open investigations, so that's something to keep an eye
Speaker 1: on as well. Annie massa investing reporter for Bloomberg News,
Speaker 1: joining us on the phone from here in New York
Speaker 1: the Journal. Yeah, but you let me drive. Oh no,
Speaker 1: no, no no, no home please, I'll do the riding. I
Speaker 1: want to drive. All just drive, baby, it's the questions
Speaker 1: to try. This is the drive to the globe that community. Thanks,
Speaker 1: we'll dry us Nada Boomberg Radio. All right here we
Speaker 1: are looking at these markets at or near record highs.
Speaker 1: Once again, you know a lot of folks are debating
Speaker 1: whether to stay in a growth trade that's worked for
Speaker 1: such a long time go with a rotation trade into
Speaker 1: more cyclical names. And that's kind of been a little
Speaker 1: bit of a discussion within the equity markets. Let's check
Speaker 1: in with our next guests, Uh see where they come out.
Speaker 1: Sandy Villery, portfolio manager Villery and Company with two billion
Speaker 1: dollars in assets under management, joining us on the phone
Speaker 1: in New Orleans. Sandy, thanks so much for joining us.
Speaker 1: I'd love to get your thoughts on kind of maybe
Speaker 1: where you're leaning, where you shake out in terms of
Speaker 1: this growth versus the rotation into maybe more value cyclical
Speaker 1: Where are you guys? Yeah, I mean, thank thanks for
Speaker 1: having me, by the way, And um, I would say
Speaker 1: that you know, when you look at something like the
Speaker 1: tenure Treasury and it's it's down where it is, uh,
Speaker 1: it starts to make us a little bit nervous. I
Speaker 1: mean basically it's telling you, I mean, the bond market
Speaker 1: tends to be smart in the stock market, and it's
Speaker 1: kind of telling you that, you know, growth is gonna slow.
Speaker 1: So um, you know, we we we kind of think
Speaker 1: we want to take some profits and and maybe some
Speaker 1: technology stocks that have done quite well, probably on the
Speaker 1: growth side, as you know, they've got a nice tail
Speaker 1: win with rates coming down. And if if our belief
Speaker 1: is that rates can pop up, you know, perhaps by
Speaker 1: you know, the end of the year, when maybe this
Speaker 1: you know, delta variant gets behind us and and maybe
Speaker 1: it peaks out here over the short run, Um, then
Speaker 1: we want to we want to switch into things like
Speaker 1: financials and maybe more cyclicals they could uh you know,
Speaker 1: being be in some trouble over the short run as
Speaker 1: RACHEL going down, but then look to reverse. So we
Speaker 1: kind of want to be a little bit contrarian as
Speaker 1: to kind of where all the you know, the masses
Speaker 1: are are headed right now? Does that picture change at
Speaker 1: all tomorrow if if we get a huge bee with
Speaker 1: the jobs report. Yeah, it's interesting because um, you know,
Speaker 1: we saw you know, June comes in at eight hundred
Speaker 1: fifty thousand. Hopefully uh we get near this eight seventy
Speaker 1: thousand number for July. But the question is is a
Speaker 1: bad number actually good news for the stock market, um,
Speaker 1: because you know, you could you could have um, you
Speaker 1: know situation where maybe we start to taper um a
Speaker 1: little bit you know soon, or maybe we start taper
Speaker 1: by the end of the year, or maybe we don't.
Speaker 1: So I think a bad number could could lead you towards, um,
Speaker 1: you know, the FED being you know, kind of staying
Speaker 1: a little bit more delish longer than than what people
Speaker 1: are expecting. So if you want more more you know,
Speaker 1: more more Jews from the Fed, then maybe you want
Speaker 1: a little bit of a bad number. It's interesting, so
Speaker 1: sane I'm looking at the Russell two thousands day of
Speaker 1: having a very good day up about one point seven.
Speaker 1: I know historically you guys have favorite small cap uh stocks.
Speaker 1: Is that still the case in what sectors are kind
Speaker 1: of interesting to you guys? Yeah, no, we we we
Speaker 1: do favorite small caps. We just think over the long run, Uh,
Speaker 1: it certainly gives you the opportunity to have us, you know,
Speaker 1: a company bought out or it gives you, um, you
Speaker 1: know hopefully, Uh, we're trying to find that that company
Speaker 1: that becomes the next you know, Amazon or Walmart, if
Speaker 1: you will. So we like to we definitely like to
Speaker 1: be in this more smaller cap names. And I think
Speaker 1: we are trying to take advantage of, you know, with
Speaker 1: with things like financials that are a little bit um
Speaker 1: again under some pressure with falling rates and having a
Speaker 1: more difficult time you know, with their net interest margins, etcetera,
Speaker 1: trying to take advantage and being a little bit contrarian.
Speaker 1: And then we also want to buy you know, some
Speaker 1: things that are a little bit um maybe tied to
Speaker 1: the reopening of the economy that all of a sudden
Speaker 1: are under pressure, you know, because of the delta variant
Speaker 1: and and and and some uncertainty. So we we love,
Speaker 1: we love some names that are more cyclical and uh
Speaker 1: and tied to the reopening. We're just looking towards maybe
Speaker 1: buying them, you know, maybe in the lows in in
Speaker 1: in August or September. Um. I think August is maybe
Speaker 1: the third worst month for the market, you know, since
Speaker 1: the fifties, and I think September is the worst month.
Speaker 1: So maybe we get an opportunity to buy some things
Speaker 1: a little bit cheaper if we're patient and selling in
Speaker 1: their strength with you know, firms like Goldman raising their
Speaker 1: price target on the SMP to getting getting everybody excited.
Speaker 1: I think, you know, an opportunity to sell into that
Speaker 1: and looked to buy I think maybe a little bit
Speaker 1: cheaper and some more volatile days uh in the months ahead, yeah, perhaps,
Speaker 1: I mean we're only five days into the into the month,
Speaker 1: not even five trading days into the month. And uh,
Speaker 1: the nasdacs already hired at one point four percent, the
Speaker 1: SMP highed by close to seven tenths of one percent.
Speaker 1: So we'll have to wait and see, Sandy, what what
Speaker 1: would be that that thing that sends markets lower. We
Speaker 1: haven't had a five percent pullback in close for a year. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think if you saw, um, you know, all of
Speaker 1: a sudden, we're going to paper maybe a little bit sooner.
Speaker 1: I think people do expect, you know, um, you know,
Speaker 1: the FED to stop buying them, you know, the d
Speaker 1: and twenty billion of treasuring agencies each month. And perhaps
Speaker 1: if we um, if if that becomes more concrete, you know,
Speaker 1: that could start, you know, by the end of this year.
Speaker 1: You know, perhaps uh, you know, the stimulus party isn't over,
Speaker 1: but maybe they start to flicker the lights, you know
Speaker 1: a little bit faster and um. And so I think
Speaker 1: when the you know, when the when the FED, um,
Speaker 1: you know, it starts to react more and really truly
Speaker 1: becomes um, you know a little bit more hawkish than
Speaker 1: that could be. You know, something that they could send
Speaker 1: the market. You know, um, a little bit further south,
Speaker 1: send you one of the names that you've written up
Speaker 1: as Caesar's. I'm a big fan of the gaming industry
Speaker 1: and was fascinated by the economics and the financials. There,
Speaker 1: give us your call on Caesar's here, seems like it
Speaker 1: would be it would fit in with your thesis of
Speaker 1: a really good reopening play. Yeah, and and you know,
Speaker 1: these guys have done an amazing job. I mean, sometimes
Speaker 1: you've been on the horse and and sometimes you've been
Speaker 1: on the jockey. And Tom Reeg has just been an
Speaker 1: unbelievable operator. He came from Eldorado Resorts and has done
Speaker 1: some great things with you know, is Capri and Tropicana
Speaker 1: and things like that. And so he actually came in
Speaker 1: and bought Caesar's and he's already um, you know, cutting
Speaker 1: expenses and doing these things that are um incredible to
Speaker 1: get his you know, hopefully long term operating margins up
Speaker 1: to and and you know, still they're talking about ten
Speaker 1: dollars of free cash flow shares is certainly in play
Speaker 1: in this This sector kind of trades at eleven and
Speaker 1: thirteen times, so you could be looking at a hundred
Speaker 1: thirty dollar stock. UM. You know, he is very committed
Speaker 1: to you know, the the online gaming as well as
Speaker 1: UM you know, as well as sports betting, and you know,
Speaker 1: four billion dollar acquisition of William Hill, which is the
Speaker 1: third largest sports book operator in the country, is all
Speaker 1: gonna be run through Caesars. And then you get the
Speaker 1: you know, sixty million total rewards customers. It's just, um,
Speaker 1: you know, an amazing an amazing feed. So I think
Speaker 1: I think these guys have a lot of Uh. I
Speaker 1: still think it's very early and what he's capable of doing,
Speaker 1: and he's just had such a good track record that UM,
Speaker 1: you know, we're excited about owning that name, especially if
Speaker 1: you get a sell off you know, uh, if people
Speaker 1: get worried about you know, casino is closing and things
Speaker 1: like that, that's just gonna be a great opportunity over
Speaker 1: the next you know, twelve to eighteen months. What about
Speaker 1: a bank like First Hawaiian. Yeah, I think that's a similar, um,
Speaker 1: a similar situation where if you can get um, you know,
Speaker 1: if you can get into a you know, maybe a
Speaker 1: more reasonable valuation with UM you know, again with interest
Speaker 1: rates you know falling here and really hurting financials. UM,
Speaker 1: these guys have a you know, three point eight percent
Speaker 1: dividend yield and looks very good when you're when you're
Speaker 1: comparing it to a you know, one point two percent
Speaker 1: ten year treasury um. These guys never took tarp Um,
Speaker 1: you know, pretty pretty conservative, you know, back in the
Speaker 1: financial crisis. Never took tarp Um founded in eighteen fifty eight,
Speaker 1: so really kind of a duopoly with Bank of Hawaii.
Speaker 1: And they're also UM sort of a play on not
Speaker 1: only the military that that's over there, but also UM
Speaker 1: the reopening UM and and you know, tourism coming back.
Speaker 1: And I think it's one that UM doesn't seem to
Speaker 1: me to be a UM, you know, real risky at all,
Speaker 1: but but certainly offers a lot of upside should you
Speaker 1: see rates you know, drift higher as we get past
Speaker 1: this delta variant. Sandy Villery, portfolio manager at Villery and
Speaker 1: a company two billion dollars in assets under management, joining
Speaker 1: us this afternoon from New Orleans. Sandy, thanks so much
Speaker 1: for taking the time. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week.
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