1 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:07,000 Speaker 1: From Bloomberg News and I Heart Radio. It's the big Take. 2 00:00:08,080 --> 00:00:12,720 Speaker 1: I'm West Coastsova. Today, India aims to become the next 3 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:28,680 Speaker 1: economic powerhouse. As many of the world's biggest economies have 4 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:33,479 Speaker 1: slowed recently, India is spending billions of dollars to attract 5 00:00:33,520 --> 00:00:39,360 Speaker 1: global investors and boost manufacturing. Prime Minister Narendra Moody aims 6 00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:43,239 Speaker 1: to propel India to the top ranks of world economic powers, 7 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:47,960 Speaker 1: alongside the US and China, and with a population of 8 00:00:48,040 --> 00:00:51,920 Speaker 1: one point four billion, it's edging past China as the 9 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:55,400 Speaker 1: country with the most people on Earth. But to meet 10 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: his goals, Moody will have to tangle with the remnants 11 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 1: of India's bureaucracy and a legacy of corruption that has 12 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:05,920 Speaker 1: held the country back, and also deal with the stark 13 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:09,399 Speaker 1: gap between rich and poor. We dig into all of 14 00:01:09,440 --> 00:01:12,680 Speaker 1: that today. My colleagues Kai Schultz and Vrishdi ben of 15 00:01:12,760 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 1: All have written a deeply reported story about India's growth. 16 00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 1: Banks have predicted that India will drive a fifth of 17 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:22,760 Speaker 1: world expansion in this decade, making only one of three 18 00:01:22,760 --> 00:01:25,400 Speaker 1: in the world that can generate more than four or 19 00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: so billion dollars in annual output. Growth. Apple has been 20 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:33,039 Speaker 1: boosting its manufacturing in India. It has been exporting phones 21 00:01:33,080 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 1: which are made in India. So there is some promise, 22 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 1: it seems. Now we'll hear from them in just a bit. First, 23 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:45,039 Speaker 1: Milan Vishnev joins me. He's director of the South Asia 24 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 1: Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, 25 00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:52,240 Speaker 1: and he joins me now to talk about Prime Minister Modi, 26 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 1: the man who is pushing for India to reach these 27 00:01:55,600 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 1: ambitious goals. Milan, today we're talking all about out India's ambitions. 28 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:07,480 Speaker 1: How much can we attribute India's recent economic growth to 29 00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 1: Modi himself? Well, I think that's a very complicated question. 30 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:16,560 Speaker 1: I mean, undoubtedly, as the Prime minister, he gets the 31 00:02:16,600 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 1: blame or credit for India's trajectory. But you know, India 32 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:25,520 Speaker 1: has seen a revolution in its economic performance since the 33 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 1: early nine nineties when it underwent pretty sweeping market friendly 34 00:02:30,400 --> 00:02:34,359 Speaker 1: liberal economic reforms, right, and so in some sense, much 35 00:02:34,360 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 1: of the dynamism we see in India over the past 36 00:02:38,000 --> 00:02:41,320 Speaker 1: you know, more than quarter century, is a result of 37 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:46,200 Speaker 1: those reforms. In fact, Prime Minister Modis economic performance since 38 00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:50,040 Speaker 1: coming to power has been rather patchy. Now, of course, 39 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 1: He's had some external shocks like COVID, but he's also 40 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:57,400 Speaker 1: had some self inflicted wounds like demonetization. You know, this 41 00:02:57,639 --> 00:03:01,640 Speaker 1: uh wild idea that you can invalidalidate almost all Indian 42 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 1: currency overnight in a failed attempt to curb corruption. I 43 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:08,320 Speaker 1: think what we are seeing right now is really the 44 00:03:08,360 --> 00:03:12,400 Speaker 1: product of larger international factors and the fact that at 45 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:14,880 Speaker 1: a time that China is slowing, there are a lot 46 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:19,760 Speaker 1: of headwinds in the western economies, India and relative comparison 47 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:25,120 Speaker 1: looks like the healthy performer. One of the things that 48 00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:29,800 Speaker 1: has driven the growth, I imagine, is in his population growth. 49 00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:34,720 Speaker 1: How much is just this enormous population itself a driver 50 00:03:35,120 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 1: of economic growth that may have happened no matter who 51 00:03:38,360 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: was in charge. Well, you know, I think it's definitely 52 00:03:40,760 --> 00:03:43,880 Speaker 1: an important factor. I mean, economists have this term called 53 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 1: the demographic dividend, which is some countries have this youth 54 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: bulge of people who start from their early twenties and 55 00:03:52,520 --> 00:03:54,840 Speaker 1: go on to their early sixties when they are in 56 00:03:54,880 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: the prime working condition of their lives. And India has 57 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 1: just a mass of ofly large number of people who 58 00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:04,520 Speaker 1: are in that category. I mean, it sort of boggles 59 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 1: the mind. But you know, more than a million Indians 60 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:11,280 Speaker 1: are joining the labor force every month and that process 61 00:04:11,400 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 1: is going to continue for the next couple of decades, 62 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:17,520 Speaker 1: and so it is definitely seen as a plus. But 63 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:20,239 Speaker 1: I should, you know, just issue a caveat here, which 64 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 1: is this is premised on people finding gainful employment that 65 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 1: is going to sustain them, sustain their families, sustain their homes. 66 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:32,560 Speaker 1: And we are seeing right now a reasonable level of 67 00:04:32,600 --> 00:04:36,440 Speaker 1: economic growth, but we are not seeing commensurate growth in 68 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:39,240 Speaker 1: job creation right so I do think that is a 69 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 1: warning sign for people who are looking out and trying 70 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:44,360 Speaker 1: to figure out, you know, where is the Indian economy 71 00:04:44,400 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 1: going to be, say five or ten years from now. 72 00:04:46,640 --> 00:04:51,600 Speaker 1: The unemployment rate in India is very low because as 73 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 1: a poor country, you have to work. You don't have 74 00:04:54,480 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 1: the option of not working. The problem is people are 75 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 1: working in ways that are not up to their potential. 76 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:05,479 Speaker 1: They're working part time, they're working in informal parts of 77 00:05:05,480 --> 00:05:08,359 Speaker 1: the economy. I'd like to talk for a moment about 78 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:10,440 Speaker 1: some of the challenge that Modi has faced at home. 79 00:05:10,480 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 1: You mentioned one of them demonetization, which caused a lot 80 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:16,360 Speaker 1: of unresk. Can you talk to us a bit about 81 00:05:16,520 --> 00:05:20,480 Speaker 1: what that was and what happened. Yeah, So two pretty 82 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:24,279 Speaker 1: large world changing events happened in November two thousand sixteen. 83 00:05:24,320 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 1: One of them was the election of Donald Trump in 84 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:27,960 Speaker 1: the United States, and the other was this thing we 85 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:33,599 Speaker 1: call demonetization where movie came on television that evening and 86 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 1: basically said that by the stroke of midnight, eight six 87 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:42,479 Speaker 1: percent of Indian currency will be invalidated. Um. And these 88 00:05:42,480 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 1: are higher denomination notes, and that doesn't mean your money 89 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 1: is worthless. Uh. You can come in to deposit those 90 00:05:49,720 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 1: bills into the bank or trade them in for new bills. 91 00:05:53,080 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 1: The idea being that if you are corrupt, and if 92 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:59,919 Speaker 1: you are holding quote unquote black money or unaccounted for money, 93 00:06:00,600 --> 00:06:02,480 Speaker 1: you're not gonna want to come up to the bank 94 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 1: and say, you know, here's suitcases full of cash, right, 95 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 1: so you will just basically forfeit a lot of money. 96 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: This created, as you might imagine, a massive panic, right, 97 00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 1: everyone running to the banks, everyone figuring out how to 98 00:06:15,080 --> 00:06:18,359 Speaker 1: pay their suppliers, the entire economy sort of you know, 99 00:06:18,720 --> 00:06:21,520 Speaker 1: hit a giant pause button. And so they went through 100 00:06:21,560 --> 00:06:27,720 Speaker 1: this rather bizarre draconian exercise that essentially was a wash 101 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 1: in terms of cleansing the economy of this so called 102 00:06:32,440 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 1: black money. Now, one positive is that it did push 103 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:40,679 Speaker 1: people into digital forms of payment. So we have seen 104 00:06:41,040 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: a digital payments revolution in India play out over the 105 00:06:44,839 --> 00:06:48,039 Speaker 1: last five or six years. But the question is, you know, 106 00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:52,360 Speaker 1: might there have been more humane, more gentle ways of 107 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:56,160 Speaker 1: doing that rather than putting the entire economy on pause. 108 00:06:56,760 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 1: And yet Moody recovered from that. How did he wind up, 109 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 1: you know, sort of calming all of this discontent. It 110 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:06,440 Speaker 1: was very unpopular amongst economists who didn't think of it 111 00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 1: as a very sound policy, but it actually was very 112 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 1: popular among some Indians because despite the fact that they 113 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 1: had to go through hardship and wait an interminably long 114 00:07:16,880 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 1: bank use and so on and so forth, they thought, 115 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 1: for the first time, somebody is trying to stick it 116 00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 1: to the fat cats who have fleeced this country. Right, 117 00:07:25,360 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 1: So I may be suffering as an ordinary Indian waiting 118 00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:32,360 Speaker 1: in line, but think about the really rich, corrupt person. 119 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:35,160 Speaker 1: That person is really going to suffer. Now, in the end, 120 00:07:35,520 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 1: that person didn't suffer, but people thought, at least he's 121 00:07:39,800 --> 00:07:42,920 Speaker 1: doing something. What is the opposition doing? Right? Moody has 122 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:46,560 Speaker 1: taken the biggest action against black money in seventy five 123 00:07:46,640 --> 00:07:49,200 Speaker 1: years of this country and we support him. So not 124 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 1: only did it not hurt him, it helped him win elections. 125 00:07:53,640 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 1: And another big challenge he faced more recently was when 126 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: he angered a lot of farmers. Can you talk about 127 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: what happened there? Yeah, So, you know, agriculture has been 128 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:08,800 Speaker 1: in a pretty woeful state in India for many years. 129 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 1: A large section of the population is employed in the 130 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 1: agricultural workforce, but agriculture does not contribute a commensurate amount 131 00:08:18,960 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 1: to the country's GDP. Agriculture tends to be a very 132 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:28,480 Speaker 1: low productivity activity in India, and economists have long called 133 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:33,840 Speaker 1: for a liberalization of that sector to allow for more 134 00:08:33,960 --> 00:08:38,960 Speaker 1: freedom of internal trade in India, a greater participation of 135 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:43,280 Speaker 1: the private sector, to try and eliminate the role of 136 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:48,600 Speaker 1: middlemen in markets so that farmers and buyers or farmers 137 00:08:48,600 --> 00:08:52,320 Speaker 1: and consumers can be more directly linked. So what Moody 138 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 1: did was to pass a series of bills in Parliament 139 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 1: without any consultation either way. Frankly, other political parties or 140 00:09:02,400 --> 00:09:06,240 Speaker 1: any of the state governments. And agriculture is a state 141 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:09,760 Speaker 1: subject under the Indian constitution, and so this is an 142 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 1: area that states have jealously guarded. The central government acted 143 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:16,160 Speaker 1: by saying, well, this is in the national interest and 144 00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:20,439 Speaker 1: actually it has interstate commerce implications, so therefore we can act. 145 00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 1: This created such an uproar amongst farmers, particularly farmers in 146 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 1: the northern stretches of India and states like Punjab and Haryana, 147 00:09:30,400 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 1: who have been, in some regards the biggest beneficiaries of 148 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:38,920 Speaker 1: the existing scheme, the existing subsidy scheme, the existing kind 149 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:42,320 Speaker 1: of state managed scheme. We begin in India where tens 150 00:09:42,320 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 1: of thousands of angry farmers have been camping outside the 151 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:49,080 Speaker 1: capital of New Delhi. They're protesting against the government's new 152 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:52,960 Speaker 1: agricultural laws, which they say could devastate crop prices and 153 00:09:53,040 --> 00:09:56,720 Speaker 1: reduce their earnings. Some say they're quote ready to die 154 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,199 Speaker 1: in a showdown with Prime Minister and the rent Remodi. 155 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,719 Speaker 1: And it was one of those rare times where the 156 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:07,720 Speaker 1: political and popular blowback again maybe just limited to this 157 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 1: section of the country was so large and farmers are 158 00:10:11,480 --> 00:10:14,200 Speaker 1: seen as such a critical vote bank that the government 159 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 1: had to withdraw those bills and with draw those reforms. 160 00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:21,599 Speaker 1: So we're basically back to square one today in India. 161 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:24,599 Speaker 1: One thing that Modi has done, which has drawn a 162 00:10:24,640 --> 00:10:27,240 Speaker 1: lot of scrutiny from the rest of the world, has 163 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 1: been to take a pretty hard line on religious freedom. 164 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:36,559 Speaker 1: And I wonder how that's playing out in India itself 165 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:40,240 Speaker 1: among different portions of population. Can you explain a bit 166 00:10:40,480 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 1: about how that's happened, Well, I think you have to 167 00:10:43,240 --> 00:10:47,079 Speaker 1: start by looking at Mr Modi's party, the b j P. 168 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 1: The b j P and shorthand is often referred to 169 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 1: as India's Hindu Nationalist Party. What does that mean? In 170 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 1: a nutshell, it means that these are people who believe 171 00:10:57,200 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 1: that Hindu culture and Indian culture are synonymous, that they're 172 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:05,960 Speaker 1: one and the same. And because Hindu's makeup roughly of 173 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 1: the population, what they say should go for the entire country. 174 00:11:10,559 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 1: And this is really the movement in which Mr Modi 175 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:17,080 Speaker 1: and his party are steeped, right, So you could call 176 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 1: it a pro Hindu movement, Hindu majority, Aian movement. But 177 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:25,680 Speaker 1: India is a country of extreme diversity, right. Fourteen percent 178 00:11:25,880 --> 00:11:29,360 Speaker 1: of the population are Muslim And you might say, well, 179 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:31,720 Speaker 1: fourteen percent is not a huge number, but that means 180 00:11:31,760 --> 00:11:35,440 Speaker 1: more than two hundred and thirty or forty million odd 181 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 1: Muslims plus a range of other religious identities, and so 182 00:11:39,720 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 1: there has been a lot of tension between Hindus and 183 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 1: other religious minorities over who belongs, over who truly is 184 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:51,959 Speaker 1: an Indian. And this government, particularly in its second term, 185 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 1: which began in two thousand nineteen, has implemented a number 186 00:11:56,360 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 1: of policies and programs which are seen as openly pro 187 00:12:02,520 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 1: Hindu and in some cases distinctly anti Muslim. Has that 188 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:12,680 Speaker 1: been popular just given the large Hindu majority by and large, Yes, 189 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 1: you know, we don't have great public policy polling data 190 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:18,720 Speaker 1: in India, but you know, let elections speak for themselves. 191 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:22,560 Speaker 1: And what we have seen is that NARENDRMDI and his 192 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 1: party have largely been rewarded for many of these policies. Now, 193 00:12:27,000 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 1: there are many people who believe very strongly in India's 194 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:37,040 Speaker 1: secular constitution that had specific safeguards for religious minorities, who 195 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 1: feel like this is contrary to the spirit in which 196 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 1: India was really founded, and so that is at the 197 00:12:42,800 --> 00:12:47,880 Speaker 1: heart of the political tension. Our conversation continues after the 198 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 1: break million. You've talked a lot about how Moody has 199 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:03,080 Speaker 1: skillfully navigated the various cross currents of Indian society and 200 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: politics and religion. He's also been very careful in his 201 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 1: foreign policy and his approach to other nations. Well, I 202 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:15,840 Speaker 1: think it's a function today of the political and geopolitical 203 00:13:15,920 --> 00:13:21,840 Speaker 1: environment where you no longer necessarily have the soul superpower 204 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:25,800 Speaker 1: of the United States. You have something that looks and 205 00:13:25,880 --> 00:13:28,360 Speaker 1: feels a little bit closer to a kind of Cold 206 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:31,400 Speaker 1: War dynamic where you have, yes, a powerful United States, 207 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:34,840 Speaker 1: but a very powerful and rising China, and then you 208 00:13:34,920 --> 00:13:38,480 Speaker 1: have these kind of middle weight powers countries like Russia, 209 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 1: like the European Union collection of countries, or India, which 210 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:46,559 Speaker 1: are seeking to flex their muscles. And what India has 211 00:13:46,559 --> 00:13:49,880 Speaker 1: tried to do under Modi is really work those seems right, 212 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:53,160 Speaker 1: And basically, when it comes to the United States, say well, look, 213 00:13:53,320 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 1: we are both worried about China and so therefore, you 214 00:13:56,640 --> 00:13:59,760 Speaker 1: know we should work together on defense and strategic and 215 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:02,959 Speaker 1: eque notic priorities. But India can also say to Russia, 216 00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:05,760 Speaker 1: you know, no one is buying your oil right now, 217 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,240 Speaker 1: but you know, we're a poor country who needs your oil. 218 00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 1: And India feels pretty confident that the world is not 219 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 1: going to be able to make India change because they 220 00:14:12,920 --> 00:14:15,440 Speaker 1: need India on other issues. Right, So it is what 221 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 1: this government has called a policy of multi aalignment, where um, 222 00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:23,920 Speaker 1: it's not that we can't have friends and partners and relationships, 223 00:14:24,400 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 1: it's that we can sort of be promiscuous in how 224 00:14:27,240 --> 00:14:31,560 Speaker 1: we do that. And we don't necessarily see any incompatibility 225 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 1: between being friends with Russia today and being friends with 226 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 1: the United States. At the same time, Modi has something 227 00:14:37,960 --> 00:14:42,080 Speaker 1: like I think it's seventy percent popularity ratings in the country. 228 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:44,680 Speaker 1: So he must be doing these things fairly right, at 229 00:14:44,760 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 1: least as far as his citizens are concerned. He's up 230 00:14:47,560 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 1: for re election in four again. Do you think that 231 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 1: he will easily win again? Well, he and his party 232 00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:59,600 Speaker 1: are in the pole position without a doubt. One of 233 00:14:59,760 --> 00:15:04,440 Speaker 1: the particularities about this Indian political moment is that there 234 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:10,240 Speaker 1: is only one Pan Indian political party that has widespread support, 235 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 1: and that is the b j P of Mr Mode. 236 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:16,880 Speaker 1: It's largely frankly because of his charisman popularity. The only 237 00:15:17,040 --> 00:15:21,720 Speaker 1: other national poll of politics, the Indian National Congress, is 238 00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 1: a shell of its former self. It has badly lost 239 00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:30,760 Speaker 1: two consecutive elections. It is suffering through a leadership challenge 240 00:15:30,800 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 1: and ideological or vision challenge and organizational challenge. So in 241 00:15:34,680 --> 00:15:37,920 Speaker 1: that vacuum, the b j P really is the only 242 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 1: soul hegemon. So I think for most politically analysts, the 243 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:44,800 Speaker 1: question is not really about four where the b JP 244 00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:48,440 Speaker 1: looks like they will sail through relatively easily, but really 245 00:15:48,480 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 1: what comes after that? Will there be some kind of 246 00:15:51,600 --> 00:15:55,600 Speaker 1: creative destruction in the opposition space where either the Congress 247 00:15:55,640 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 1: reinvents itself or other claimants to power, other regional claimants 248 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 1: you know, decide to expand decide to work together, decided 249 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:05,160 Speaker 1: to form some kind of you know, ad hoc coalitions. 250 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 1: That remains to be seen. But at the present momentum, 251 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:11,640 Speaker 1: the b JP is operating with many degrees of freedom 252 00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:14,800 Speaker 1: and room to maneuver mill invasion of Thanks so much 253 00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 1: for talking with me today. Thanks for having me. Now 254 00:16:19,560 --> 00:16:22,920 Speaker 1: let's bring in my colleagues Sky Shows and Rishdi Beneval, 255 00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:28,040 Speaker 1: who have dug into the details about how India plans 256 00:16:28,080 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 1: to catapult itself forward. Rishti, why don't we start with you? 257 00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 1: What is Moody doing to attract these billions of dollars 258 00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:39,800 Speaker 1: in global investments in the country. So Moody has been 259 00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:43,720 Speaker 1: trying to attract manufacturing in India for a very long time. 260 00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:47,840 Speaker 1: It's been his dream since when he was first elected 261 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:51,080 Speaker 1: as Prime Minister of the country to make India factory 262 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 1: for the world and the government has tried different different 263 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 1: programs since then to make it work, but unfortunately nothing 264 00:16:57,920 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 1: has worked so far. As opposed intage of GDP, India's 265 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 1: manufacturing remains around fourteen fifteen person and not moving much. Recently, 266 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:11,920 Speaker 1: the government has started offering some incentives where companies when 267 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:15,879 Speaker 1: they boost production in India, they get some financial incentives 268 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:20,160 Speaker 1: from the government and that seems to be working now. 269 00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:24,240 Speaker 1: We see recently Apple has been boosting its manufacturing in India. 270 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:27,680 Speaker 1: It has been exporting phones which are made in India, 271 00:17:27,880 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 1: So there is some promise, it seems now. One thing 272 00:17:31,560 --> 00:17:33,840 Speaker 1: you write in this story is that a lot of 273 00:17:33,880 --> 00:17:36,680 Speaker 1: countries of the world are starting to sort of retract 274 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 1: in their economies, whereas India's economy is growing pretty rapidly. 275 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:45,119 Speaker 1: Is that right, guy? That's right. India's economy is growing quickly, 276 00:17:45,680 --> 00:17:49,680 Speaker 1: and we've seen rapid growth post nine, which is when 277 00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:54,919 Speaker 1: India opened up its economy liberalized. Post that period, you 278 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 1: saw foreign businesses start to open factories on home soil. 279 00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:03,440 Speaker 1: You saw the devaluation of the rupee, you saw many 280 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:06,679 Speaker 1: efforts to lower tariffs, and so that's all created a 281 00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:10,240 Speaker 1: much stronger market to compete globally. In India has attempted 282 00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:13,960 Speaker 1: to capture that momentum. Mody spending a record amount of 283 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:18,200 Speaker 1: India's budget this fiscal YearIn capital investments. So there's a 284 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: real push to make it much more of a conducive 285 00:18:21,080 --> 00:18:24,120 Speaker 1: place to do business, and I think that India has 286 00:18:24,160 --> 00:18:29,479 Speaker 1: demonstrated some success on that front. Victually, you mentioned how 287 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:34,800 Speaker 1: Moody's efforts to make India the manufacturer for the world 288 00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:38,960 Speaker 1: have had mixed results. And yet we're hearing from how 289 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:42,439 Speaker 1: quickly the economy is growing, how people have money to spend. 290 00:18:42,760 --> 00:18:45,200 Speaker 1: What are some of the industries that are really leading 291 00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:51,359 Speaker 1: this fast growth in India? Electronics is clearly whinner, it 292 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:54,360 Speaker 1: seems at the moment they have been doing well. They 293 00:18:54,400 --> 00:18:58,880 Speaker 1: have been benefiting from these incentives announced by the government 294 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:02,919 Speaker 1: in the recent deal. Apart from that, the government has 295 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:08,200 Speaker 1: been working in pharmaceutical sector. Software has been India's the 296 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 1: strength for a very long time now. And what is 297 00:19:11,520 --> 00:19:15,919 Speaker 1: India doing to attract big companies like Apple away from China? 298 00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:18,359 Speaker 1: Away from other countries, because obviously that would be a 299 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:22,000 Speaker 1: very big deal if Apple and other large companies were 300 00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:26,679 Speaker 1: to move more of their production to India. One of 301 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 1: the things that India is doing is providing financial incentives 302 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 1: to companies that expand in India. So this is a 303 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 1: pool of roughly twenty four billion dollars and it's rolling 304 00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:39,560 Speaker 1: out over the next few years and more than a 305 00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:43,159 Speaker 1: dozen industries. So some of that money will support the 306 00:19:43,160 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 1: production of mobile phones, semiconductors, and solar panels, and the 307 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:51,720 Speaker 1: aim is to expand the program to manufacturers of other 308 00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 1: goods in the coming months. One thing that really stood 309 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,879 Speaker 1: out to me in your story is that India has 310 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,159 Speaker 1: creating more of these so called unicorn companies. These are 311 00:20:03,200 --> 00:20:06,399 Speaker 1: companies that are worth a billion dollars before they go public. 312 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,840 Speaker 1: What sort of companies are these and how is India 313 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:15,640 Speaker 1: becoming such an engine of new high valued companies. Most 314 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:19,440 Speaker 1: of these companies are startups in technology sector, so we 315 00:20:19,520 --> 00:20:23,840 Speaker 1: have seen these small companies mushrooming in India. There are 316 00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:28,280 Speaker 1: players who are coming in education sector, food delivery, different 317 00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:31,760 Speaker 1: mobile apps that are being used or right healing apps. 318 00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:34,359 Speaker 1: So we have seen this sector coming up in a 319 00:20:34,400 --> 00:20:37,720 Speaker 1: big way. And uh they are able to attract good 320 00:20:37,800 --> 00:20:41,560 Speaker 1: valuations from investors, and they have been doing pretty well 321 00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:44,680 Speaker 1: in the recent past, but now there are also questions 322 00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:47,480 Speaker 1: about the valuations they are attracting. So it remains to 323 00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:50,960 Speaker 1: be seen that how far these unicorns can goo. Hi. 324 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:55,880 Speaker 1: India's population has grown really quickly, and it's also young. 325 00:20:56,560 --> 00:20:59,520 Speaker 1: I asked malenvation of this question earlier, and so I'll 326 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:04,160 Speaker 1: ask you to do is India's young population and advantage? 327 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:07,639 Speaker 1: I do think that India's young population is both an 328 00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:11,920 Speaker 1: advantage and potentially a disadvantage, depending on how the government 329 00:21:11,960 --> 00:21:15,400 Speaker 1: is able to harness the skills that those people bring 330 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:19,000 Speaker 1: to the economy. One of the points that stood out 331 00:21:19,040 --> 00:21:22,720 Speaker 1: from our reporting was that increasingly young people are not 332 00:21:22,800 --> 00:21:26,159 Speaker 1: even looking for jobs for a variety of reasons, but 333 00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 1: one piece of it is that they feel that quality 334 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,959 Speaker 1: jobs are simply not being created in the market. So, 335 00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,399 Speaker 1: on the one hand, you have a very engaged young 336 00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:39,560 Speaker 1: workforce that's ready, that's educated, and that could potentially do 337 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:41,919 Speaker 1: big things in India. On the other hand, you have 338 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:43,960 Speaker 1: a government that's still trying to figure out how to 339 00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 1: put them to work, how to incentivize them to work 340 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:50,800 Speaker 1: in factories, how to create enough quality jobs in the 341 00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:53,919 Speaker 1: services sector, and so I think that that's really going 342 00:21:53,960 --> 00:21:56,760 Speaker 1: to be one of the key challenges for India moving 343 00:21:56,800 --> 00:21:59,320 Speaker 1: forward is how to capitalize in the demographic dividend that 344 00:21:59,359 --> 00:22:02,639 Speaker 1: they have visually right that this is especially true of 345 00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:07,000 Speaker 1: women who have a more difficult time finding quality jobs. 346 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:11,080 Speaker 1: Is the government doing anything to encourage more participation, especially 347 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:14,919 Speaker 1: young women in the workforce. That's true. The participation of 348 00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,959 Speaker 1: women in India's workforce has been falling in There are 349 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 1: estimates ranging from nine person to say nineteen person, which 350 00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,120 Speaker 1: is one of the lowest in the world. Women need 351 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:27,680 Speaker 1: to be part of the workforce if the economy has 352 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:31,119 Speaker 1: to grow at a fast space. We are projecting a 353 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:34,040 Speaker 1: potential growth rate of seven to eight person for India 354 00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:36,560 Speaker 1: and if women are not part of the workforce, then 355 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:39,959 Speaker 1: it will be difficult to achieve. That. The government is 356 00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:44,440 Speaker 1: not doing specifically anything for the women um as of now. 357 00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:48,240 Speaker 1: But yes, there there are demands from various quarters that 358 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:51,239 Speaker 1: how government can make it, you know, easier for for 359 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:54,959 Speaker 1: women to be part of the workforce where they participate 360 00:22:55,000 --> 00:22:59,080 Speaker 1: in big numbers and it is easier for them to 361 00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 1: to work and grow career. Right now in India, most 362 00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:06,199 Speaker 1: of the family board is on women. Can I you 363 00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:10,600 Speaker 1: talked about how India needs to grow its middle class. 364 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,119 Speaker 1: That's often the engine of an economy. Certainly that was 365 00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,200 Speaker 1: true in the US and in Europe and even in China. 366 00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,040 Speaker 1: And also how younger people are feeling like they are 367 00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:23,119 Speaker 1: in a lot of good quality jobs. Is the divide 368 00:23:23,200 --> 00:23:27,600 Speaker 1: between people at the top who are building these big companies, 369 00:23:27,840 --> 00:23:31,359 Speaker 1: getting rich working for these big companies, and the rest 370 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:36,120 Speaker 1: of the country growing. Inequality is certainly growing in India 371 00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:41,159 Speaker 1: post liberalization. You see two things happening. Number one, absolute 372 00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 1: poverty has decreased quite dramatically, which is a great thing 373 00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:47,440 Speaker 1: for India. And number two, the gap between the rich 374 00:23:47,480 --> 00:23:51,919 Speaker 1: and the poor has grown. From the government's perspective, not 375 00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 1: shackling business is a priority. So if that means that 376 00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,720 Speaker 1: these inequalities grow in the short term, that's something they're 377 00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,960 Speaker 1: willing to live with. But it certainly poses the risk 378 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,920 Speaker 1: of social unrest if India is not able to put 379 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:09,120 Speaker 1: more people to work, particularly in jobs that they want 380 00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:14,399 Speaker 1: to do. My conversation with Rishti and Kai continues after 381 00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:25,760 Speaker 1: the break. Rishty, can we talk for a minute about 382 00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:31,000 Speaker 1: India's relationship with China, it's an important relationship. They compete 383 00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,800 Speaker 1: and there have been some tensions. How do the two 384 00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:39,520 Speaker 1: nations regard each other. India and China haven't shared a 385 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:43,880 Speaker 1: great relationship and we have seen tensions on Bordo off 386 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:49,200 Speaker 1: and on in recent tears. We sometimes the tensions blew 387 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:53,159 Speaker 1: up a little bit, but things remain under control. I 388 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:56,760 Speaker 1: think both the leaders India and China they understand this 389 00:24:56,840 --> 00:25:00,360 Speaker 1: is not the time. These are two superpower us in 390 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:03,919 Speaker 1: Asia and they have to think about their economy. So 391 00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:06,760 Speaker 1: that is the reason we think that. You know, we 392 00:25:06,840 --> 00:25:09,880 Speaker 1: have seen some tensions on on border, but things are 393 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:13,199 Speaker 1: under control and both the leaders are conscious of the 394 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,400 Speaker 1: fact that they have to take care of their economy. 395 00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,200 Speaker 1: India has to take care of the needs of its 396 00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:23,119 Speaker 1: one point four billion people. It is investment it needs 397 00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:26,920 Speaker 1: right now. China also has bigger issues to take care 398 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:31,880 Speaker 1: of right now. So we believe that they will continue 399 00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:35,879 Speaker 1: to focus on their economies while protecting their border at 400 00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:39,600 Speaker 1: the same time. Actually, India will host the G twenty 401 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,720 Speaker 1: this year. It's a big platform to showcase India and 402 00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 1: make his case to other world leaders. How does Moody 403 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:51,120 Speaker 1: intend to take advantage of this opportunity. Prime Minister Narendra 404 00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:53,800 Speaker 1: Modi would like to send a strong signal to global 405 00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:57,280 Speaker 1: leaders as well as investors that India is the place 406 00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 1: to do business right now, but there is also press 407 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:03,000 Speaker 1: sure on him to shift focus from businesses to the 408 00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:06,920 Speaker 1: poor people ahead of next year general elections. In four 409 00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:10,680 Speaker 1: India is going for elections and PM Moody is going 410 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,919 Speaker 1: to seek a re election again. He has been a 411 00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,359 Speaker 1: Prime minister for two times now and for a third 412 00:26:16,400 --> 00:26:19,480 Speaker 1: time he will be seeking votes and there's a lot 413 00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:21,879 Speaker 1: of pressure on his government to do something for the poor, 414 00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,480 Speaker 1: to create jobs, because we know unemployment is a major 415 00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:27,800 Speaker 1: between the country. One of mos big goals is to 416 00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:32,280 Speaker 1: make India the world's third largest economy behind the US 417 00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:36,080 Speaker 1: in China in a relatively short amount of time looking 418 00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:39,920 Speaker 1: down the road. Do you think that that's a realistic goal. 419 00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:43,800 Speaker 1: I do think it's a realistic goal. Banks are predicted 420 00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:47,080 Speaker 1: that India will drive a fifth of world expansion this decade, 421 00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:49,720 Speaker 1: making only one of three in the world that can 422 00:26:49,760 --> 00:26:53,240 Speaker 1: generate more than four or so billion dollars in annual 423 00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:57,680 Speaker 1: output growth, and so I think that it's something that's 424 00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:03,320 Speaker 1: within reach. As We've discussed growing inequality, problems with employment, 425 00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:07,520 Speaker 1: and this bigger question of whether India can beef up 426 00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:11,879 Speaker 1: it's manufacturing sector. Are three sticking points. If Moody is 427 00:27:11,880 --> 00:27:15,760 Speaker 1: successful in improving those, then I think that the country 428 00:27:15,760 --> 00:27:20,760 Speaker 1: has a real shot. Kai Schultz, Rishidy Beniwald, thanks so 429 00:27:20,840 --> 00:27:27,000 Speaker 1: much for being here. Thank you, thank you. You can 430 00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:30,879 Speaker 1: read more from Bristi Benewald and Kai Schultz at Bloomberg 431 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,800 Speaker 1: dot com. Thanks for listening to us here at The 432 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:36,399 Speaker 1: Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and I 433 00:27:36,520 --> 00:27:39,840 Speaker 1: Heart Radio. For more shows from my Heart Radio, visit 434 00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:43,960 Speaker 1: the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you listen, 435 00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:47,439 Speaker 1: and we'd love to hear from you. Email us questions 436 00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:51,000 Speaker 1: or comments to Big Take at Bloomberg dot net. The 437 00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:54,920 Speaker 1: supervising producer of The Big Take is Vicky Bergolina, Our 438 00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:59,760 Speaker 1: senior producer is Katherine Fink, Our producer is Federica Roman Yellow, 439 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:04,399 Speaker 1: and our associate producer is Zenob Sidiki. Hilda Garcia is 440 00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 1: our engineer. Our original music was composed by Leo Sidrin. 441 00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,760 Speaker 1: I'm West Casova. We'll be back tomorrow with another Big 442 00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:13,040 Speaker 1: Take