WEBVTT - Equity and Bond Signals 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:13.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 0:00:13.840 --> 0:00:17.920 Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern 0:00:18.200 --> 0:00:22.000 on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 0:00:22.360 --> 0:00:25.680 Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 0:00:25.760 --> 0:00:27.200 us live on YouTube. 0:00:27.240 --> 0:00:29.479 So two thousand and nine, I think we got to 0:00:29.560 --> 0:00:32.159 six thousand, six hundred and you know a couple of 0:00:32.280 --> 0:00:37.160 Vikings wins. After that, Ryan Belski went long at the market. 0:00:37.680 --> 0:00:42.200 He writes these beautiful short paragraph by paragraph ed Heyman 0:00:42.600 --> 0:00:46.000 notes on having the courage to be in the market. 0:00:46.360 --> 0:00:48.880 There's five or six people that can do his act 0:00:48.960 --> 0:00:52.120 of just shut up and stay in the market. Update 0:00:52.520 --> 0:00:55.720 the after two thousand and nine view at Dow seven thousand, 0:00:56.160 --> 0:00:58.880 like it's an eight banger. You've done to fifty thousand, 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:00.920 Give me the enthusias this morning. 0:01:01.080 --> 0:01:04.160 Well, it was hard to be bullish in two thousand 0:01:04.160 --> 0:01:04.400 and nine. 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:06.440 It really was, with lots of fear. 0:01:06.480 --> 0:01:09.560 But we've seen the secular bowl market that we've been 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:13.400 in print on since the two nine twenty ten period. 0:01:13.440 --> 0:01:16.160 See several different fits and starts with respect to cyclical 0:01:16.200 --> 0:01:18.759 bulls and cyclical bears. Right now in the fourth year 0:01:19.000 --> 0:01:22.399 of the most recent cyclical bull market, which the majority 0:01:22.440 --> 0:01:26.960 of the bull tom has been about momentum this year 0:01:27.080 --> 0:01:30.000 when we wrote a year ahead piece, which we had 0:01:30.000 --> 0:01:32.839 a great opportunity to talk about in January here on air. 0:01:33.560 --> 0:01:36.760 We've transitioned to an earnings driven market, and you talked 0:01:36.760 --> 0:01:40.000 about Dell coming into before this hit, and you talk 0:01:40.040 --> 0:01:42.640 about micround, and you talk about all these companies being 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:43.880 rewarded for earnings. 0:01:44.200 --> 0:01:45.399 That's actually quite good. 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:48.880 But what is not so good relative to momentum markets 0:01:49.000 --> 0:01:51.960 is that even though the market performance canwill and should 0:01:51.960 --> 0:01:54.920 be still positive, it's usually about half the rate of 0:01:54.920 --> 0:01:58.920 a momentum market on an annual basis, and there's more volatility. 0:01:59.000 --> 0:02:02.560 What we haven't seen is the correction or pullback that 0:02:02.640 --> 0:02:05.560 we typically do see in earnings driven markets. So we 0:02:05.600 --> 0:02:07.600 still think we're going to see some sort of a pullback. 0:02:07.640 --> 0:02:09.720 We don't like the time the market. It's very difficult 0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:12.280 to time the market. That's why we remain invested, but 0:02:12.360 --> 0:02:15.480 we would put our extra powder to work if when 0:02:15.520 --> 0:02:16.320 we see that pullback. 0:02:16.360 --> 0:02:17.400 So what do you put it to our keep put? 0:02:17.480 --> 0:02:19.680 I mean, I know you know what you've been calling for, 0:02:19.840 --> 0:02:21.799 is you know, a broadening sort of speak to us 0:02:21.840 --> 0:02:24.880 equity performance, right and to maybe value or small caps, 0:02:24.919 --> 0:02:27.040 but you know those sectors tend to be concentrated. What 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:31.079 in financial healthcare? You know some of the underperformers of 0:02:31.120 --> 0:02:32.680 the S and P so to speak this year, talk 0:02:32.720 --> 0:02:34.799 to us a little bit about what you're buying when 0:02:34.800 --> 0:02:37.239 you sort of broaden out your allocation to value to 0:02:37.280 --> 0:02:37.880 small caps. 0:02:37.880 --> 0:02:38.760 It's a great question. 0:02:38.800 --> 0:02:42.200 So as as Tommy knows, I learned the business from 0:02:42.400 --> 0:02:44.920 a great gentleman by the name of William O'Neill, and 0:02:45.080 --> 0:02:47.600 he taught me how to be contrarian. And sometimes you 0:02:47.680 --> 0:02:52.040 have to think, uh from a contrarian perspective and be 0:02:52.120 --> 0:02:54.560 where the be where everybody else is not number one 0:02:54.600 --> 0:02:57.400 number two. From a value perspective, there are inherent fundamental 0:02:57.440 --> 0:03:00.440 value properties in the market, especially within finance. But you 0:03:00.440 --> 0:03:02.880 can also buy damian turnaround companies that are let's say, 0:03:02.919 --> 0:03:06.400 broken growth stocks that operationally have been broken due to 0:03:06.480 --> 0:03:10.400 management changes or missteps, that actually have a great platform 0:03:10.840 --> 0:03:13.880 or product. But we really think small cap small MidCap 0:03:14.040 --> 0:03:15.760 is going to be a very exciting place the next 0:03:15.800 --> 0:03:17.959 ten years. If you add up all the small MidCap 0:03:18.560 --> 0:03:20.440 companies in the S and P, one thousand by their 0:03:20.480 --> 0:03:22.360 market cap. They all add up to being less than 0:03:22.440 --> 0:03:24.440 the market cap of Apple, which to me is quite 0:03:24.880 --> 0:03:28.880 amazing and exciting because if you're a portfolio manager and 0:03:28.919 --> 0:03:31.440 a stock picker, you can have tracking here and beat 0:03:31.480 --> 0:03:34.440 the market. So we think ultimately that we're going to 0:03:34.520 --> 0:03:37.040 see a little bit of an earnings revision downgrade to 0:03:37.080 --> 0:03:39.240 the really big stocks that's going to fade into the 0:03:39.240 --> 0:03:41.320 other five hundred and ninety I'm sorry, four hundred and 0:03:41.360 --> 0:03:43.600 ninety three stocks in the S and P five hundred, 0:03:43.640 --> 0:03:46.920 which will ultimately drive more of a broadening out. Yes, 0:03:47.000 --> 0:03:49.240 that means yields will probably fall second half of the 0:03:49.280 --> 0:03:50.960 year and we're going to have some sort of retrieve 0:03:51.000 --> 0:03:52.440 from the conflict in the Middle East. 0:03:52.440 --> 0:03:54.320 Brian, we think of international stocks when you think of 0:03:54.320 --> 0:03:56.480 emerging market equity is up twenty three percent this year. 0:03:56.560 --> 0:03:59.440 God bless you that, I say, God bless you. I 0:03:59.440 --> 0:04:01.680 think it's an amazing run. You got to think back 0:04:01.720 --> 0:04:05.440 about this Nameian UH. After Liberation Day and the hatred 0:04:05.520 --> 0:04:07.440 for the US, everybody, a lot of people left the 0:04:07.520 --> 0:04:09.960 US and then they went to Canada, they went to Europe, 0:04:10.000 --> 0:04:12.440 they went to emerging markets, and they went on a 0:04:12.440 --> 0:04:15.760 big run. But currency isn't the only reason why you 0:04:15.760 --> 0:04:18.600 should buy a particular asset like that number one, number two. 0:04:18.600 --> 0:04:21.040 From a fundamental perspective, what are you buying? 0:04:21.360 --> 0:04:22.200 What are you buying? 0:04:22.240 --> 0:04:24.120 What do they make? What are their goods and services? 0:04:24.360 --> 0:04:25.800 And you got to be a little bit worried in 0:04:25.880 --> 0:04:28.080 terms of the quality of the service relative of the US. 0:04:28.160 --> 0:04:31.520 Bryan Beilski with this, Fumail is here, CEO Cio. He 0:04:31.600 --> 0:04:32.839 answers the phone, He does it. 0:04:32.960 --> 0:04:36.960 All question Tommy answers the questions shuffling around. 0:04:36.760 --> 0:04:41.800 Here, vikings did you take the big I'm I'm going no, no, 0:04:41.880 --> 0:04:44.159 I can't afford to watch JJ McCarthy sit on the 0:04:44.200 --> 0:04:45.479 bench and I can't. 0:04:45.680 --> 0:04:46.680 I can't afford that. 0:04:46.760 --> 0:04:50.479 Okay, it's our oligatory football. Let's get back to the market. 0:04:50.960 --> 0:04:54.320 And you are legend for going to like these money conferences. 0:04:54.400 --> 0:04:58.200 And what I see is a blending now of speculation 0:04:58.560 --> 0:05:01.560 into investment. You know you're gonna tell me keep these 0:05:01.560 --> 0:05:02.680 two separate accounts. 0:05:02.839 --> 0:05:02.960 Yea. 0:05:03.200 --> 0:05:08.560 Too many people aren't discuss the speculators thinking they're investing, 0:05:08.640 --> 0:05:09.120 but they're not. 0:05:09.400 --> 0:05:13.000 They're not investing, Tom I mean, listen, I think investing 0:05:13.080 --> 0:05:14.920 is like life and life is like investing. You have 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:18.000 to tell stories, you have to live with the product, 0:05:18.040 --> 0:05:20.000 you have to understand the product, and that those are 0:05:20.000 --> 0:05:22.200 the stocks. So you're investing portfolio should be the ones 0:05:22.240 --> 0:05:24.440 that you're going to own, the names that you know, 0:05:24.560 --> 0:05:26.440 the one names you want to be in. And let's 0:05:26.440 --> 0:05:28.120 say your other side of things. Let's say you put 0:05:28.120 --> 0:05:30.920 a thousand dollars into an account, Tommy, and that's a 0:05:30.960 --> 0:05:33.040 thousand dollars that you don't need to live off of. 0:05:33.240 --> 0:05:35.359 Maybe that one thousand dollars turns into ten, maybe it 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:37.559 turns into zero. That's your speculative, mom. 0:05:37.720 --> 0:05:40.120 Brian, you're one of the most successful financial advisors out there. 0:05:40.160 --> 0:05:42.760 I mean, I look, I can't even afford a financial advisor, 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:44.760 tom But I have to ask this. Everybody who does 0:05:44.800 --> 0:05:48.160 afford can't afford when they're invested in SpaceX whatever shares 0:05:48.240 --> 0:05:50.880 somehow like they got in early whatever that stuff is. 0:05:50.920 --> 0:05:52.680 And you know, I'm looking at you, you know your 0:05:52.800 --> 0:05:55.279 recent note, and you're saying everyone is SpaceX frenzied. And 0:05:55.279 --> 0:05:58.719 then I see this headline saying they're lowering their IPO valuation. 0:05:58.360 --> 0:06:08.520 Talk George, and yeah, interesting, okay. Brian Belski Pily Gonx 0:06:09.480 --> 0:06:10.640 seventy seven pages. 0:06:10.880 --> 0:06:13.480 I read the pictures, go I actually. 0:06:13.120 --> 0:06:15.400 Think this is a good thing that we're seeing this, 0:06:15.520 --> 0:06:18.560 And then you heard about anthropic in the opening. I 0:06:18.560 --> 0:06:20.600 think it's actually good that we're kind of peeling us back. 0:06:20.680 --> 0:06:23.360 You ever, you noticed that that the conversation and what 0:06:23.560 --> 0:06:26.919 opening eyes talking about is much more conservative relatively was 0:06:26.960 --> 0:06:27.640 six months ago. 0:06:27.760 --> 0:06:28.679 That means they're performed. 0:06:28.720 --> 0:06:30.560 That's I mean, they're preparing to become a public company 0:06:30.560 --> 0:06:32.200 where we actually have to tell the truth. 0:06:32.240 --> 0:06:33.040 About what's going on. 0:06:33.080 --> 0:06:36.760 But we think the play on SpaceX is Tesla okay interesting? 0:06:36.920 --> 0:06:40.400 So it's not starlink. No, I think it's Tesla interesting. 0:06:40.520 --> 0:06:42.160 I mean, I don't know, is that really where the 0:06:42.160 --> 0:06:42.760 market is on it? 0:06:42.800 --> 0:06:44.760 I know, I don't think so. I mean I think 0:06:44.960 --> 0:06:46.920 I think people want to believe that. They want to 0:06:46.960 --> 0:06:49.480 get it for what it is, the SpaceX, and then 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:52.400 see what happens our play longer term, because I try 0:06:52.400 --> 0:06:53.640 to look out a couple three years. 0:06:53.680 --> 0:06:55.000 I think they're going to combine the company. 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:56.680 What do you think about the wealth creation we've seen 0:06:56.720 --> 0:06:58.880 here in the US and how basically what it seems 0:06:58.920 --> 0:07:00.719 like in order to keep the consumption train going, we 0:07:00.800 --> 0:07:03.880 see investors dipping into their savings, right. We just saw 0:07:03.920 --> 0:07:05.960 the data that came out on this because they aren't 0:07:05.960 --> 0:07:07.680 not making any more labor income. I mean, do you 0:07:07.760 --> 0:07:09.840 see that trend continuing? How far can we go for 0:07:09.880 --> 0:07:11.040 consumption to keep up the pace? 0:07:11.280 --> 0:07:13.080 I think we can continue to go for a while, 0:07:13.160 --> 0:07:16.240 especially because the wealth creation that has been created. 0:07:16.600 --> 0:07:18.640 You have to take profits to have those profits in 0:07:18.680 --> 0:07:19.360 your account too. 0:07:19.360 --> 0:07:21.680 And we've seen a lot of longer term investors stay 0:07:21.720 --> 0:07:24.040 in the market. So the best thing that we've seen 0:07:24.080 --> 0:07:27.840 with respect to the market has been that these high 0:07:27.880 --> 0:07:30.320 networth private wealth people have really been keeping this thing going. 0:07:30.560 --> 0:07:32.760 Nerd Patrol and Brian's so good he can do the 0:07:32.800 --> 0:07:35.400 NERD stuff and also talk basic as well. So let's 0:07:35.400 --> 0:07:38.480 go nerd right now. Are not and Cam Harvey of 0:07:38.600 --> 0:07:43.000 Duke and Rob are Nott have a spectacular effort out 0:07:43.040 --> 0:07:46.400 in the Financial Analyst Journal that takes fun of French 0:07:46.960 --> 0:07:50.960 value and growth and blows it up. And their research, 0:07:51.240 --> 0:07:54.840 really hyper detailed research, is you need fewer things in 0:07:54.880 --> 0:07:58.160 your portfolio, not one thousand stocks, right, one hundred stocks, 0:07:58.160 --> 0:08:01.560 et cetera. And the other thing they say to really 0:08:01.600 --> 0:08:04.920 add on is either by growth cheap and the next 0:08:05.000 --> 0:08:08.000 best thing is growth expensive, and instead of a two 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:11.400 part solution growth and value, they come up with four 0:08:11.480 --> 0:08:14.320 box solution and the answers you want to buy growth 0:08:14.600 --> 0:08:17.440 at whatever price you could do it. How growthingness is 0:08:17.480 --> 0:08:19.480 Brian Belski right now. 0:08:19.600 --> 0:08:22.440 It's a great question. We're actually underweight the mag seven. 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:27.240 But our US focused product is really more technology driven, 0:08:28.120 --> 0:08:31.840 communication services driven, more consistent growth. We like the lower 0:08:31.840 --> 0:08:35.960 standardyviation of earnings growth, meaning it's not as volatile. Number one, 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:39.400 Number two, you're really talking about GARP too. If you 0:08:39.440 --> 0:08:42.400 look at the majority of the portfolio that you just explain, 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:44.719 it's growth at a reasonable price, and then you have 0:08:44.800 --> 0:08:49.200 to play and respect these consistent growers that actually are 0:08:49.280 --> 0:08:50.480 high quality growers that. 0:08:50.480 --> 0:08:52.079 Have the momentum growth in that. 0:08:52.360 --> 0:08:55.000 The other thing, too, is that I think the growth 0:08:55.040 --> 0:08:58.719 indices and the value indices tom Or and Damien are 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:02.280 actually a fallacy because you can have the reason why 0:09:02.400 --> 0:09:04.599 value has been doing so well is because Micron's in 0:09:04.640 --> 0:09:08.600 the value index, so is Micron value stock, and some 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:11.000 of these stocks have a percentage and growth and percentage 0:09:11.000 --> 0:09:12.719 and value. So again the way that we look at 0:09:12.760 --> 0:09:15.640 it is let's just buy good values audible Korea. 0:09:16.080 --> 0:09:18.439 Is it the same thing in the Pacific RIM in 0:09:18.520 --> 0:09:24.120 Korea that all the movements in TSM. Well, yeah, basically 0:09:24.120 --> 0:09:26.000 they're the micron of the Pacific RIM. 0:09:25.960 --> 0:09:26.360 Right yeah. 0:09:26.400 --> 0:09:27.600 No, I mean, I don't want to get away from 0:09:27.600 --> 0:09:30.160 Brian Delski and talk about how equity flows impact effects 0:09:30.160 --> 0:09:31.040 and emerging markets, but. 0:09:31.000 --> 0:09:32.560 I'm happy to do it. We'd do that in a minute. 0:09:32.559 --> 0:09:34.080 But Brian, I have to ask you, because we have 0:09:34.160 --> 0:09:36.679 you here, all my friends on the golf course who 0:09:36.720 --> 0:09:39.680 have financial advasures talking about these tax advantaged funds, this 0:09:39.960 --> 0:09:43.280 tax efficient structure that allows them to take losses against their. 0:09:43.120 --> 0:09:46.160 Gains tax harvest. 0:09:46.360 --> 0:09:47.839 That's harvesting. That's the word I've been with. 0:09:47.960 --> 0:09:49.240 Thank you testing. 0:09:49.520 --> 0:09:51.719 I mean, what is I don't understand it. I mean, 0:09:51.760 --> 0:09:54.160 I'm you know, I'm just a high schooler here. I mean, 0:09:54.240 --> 0:09:56.280 talk to me a little bit about the attraction to that. 0:09:56.400 --> 0:09:57.480 I mean, how does it work? 0:09:58.400 --> 0:10:00.800 You know, I'm not technically a financial I'm just a 0:10:00.960 --> 0:10:05.280 I'm just a simple CEO and chief investment officer, sometimes strategist, 0:10:05.320 --> 0:10:07.080 and sometimes the chief bottle washer. 0:10:07.120 --> 0:10:08.679 So I actually that. 0:10:08.360 --> 0:10:10.920 That just blew me right, that Saint claud State Education, 0:10:11.000 --> 0:10:12.720 you just blew me right. I have no idea what 0:10:12.760 --> 0:10:13.080 that means. 0:10:13.080 --> 0:10:15.360 You know, I gotta get read on this time. There's 0:10:15.400 --> 0:10:17.720 a whole thing to manage losses. 0:10:18.040 --> 0:10:19.800 You and I've heard about age. 0:10:19.880 --> 0:10:21.640 I've heard about it, but I don't think exactly how. 0:10:21.720 --> 0:10:23.480 Okay, Well, the way it works is it's a way 0:10:23.520 --> 0:10:25.640 to develop out seventy five to one hundred and twenty 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:26.960 five basis points of fees. 0:10:27.840 --> 0:10:30.520 This is really, this is really, you know, it's always 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:33.280 everyone in short Hill, New Jersey, to just hear that. 0:10:33.360 --> 0:10:36.160 The first order, the first order recurrens function of this 0:10:36.720 --> 0:10:39.560 is real simple. You sell sell the first loss, I 0:10:39.559 --> 0:10:42.360 feel great. So the second loss you get out in 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:46.720 the seventh, eighth and nine, ten loss and the fortune 0:10:47.000 --> 0:10:48.079 isn't working, is it? 0:10:48.200 --> 0:10:48.360 Now? 0:10:48.360 --> 0:10:52.079 You're talking Minnesota Twins baseball. 0:10:53.400 --> 0:10:55.000 Or are you talking New York to that's football fifty 0:10:55.000 --> 0:10:57.079 seven years to to be fifty eight. I mean, let's 0:10:57.120 --> 0:10:58.599 knock on wood. I mean it's almost. 0:10:58.880 --> 0:11:01.040 Fifty three for the for the next so let's go. 0:11:01.200 --> 0:11:02.600 Yeah, let's go house. 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:05.640 Running a business. Let's finish up with us. You're sitting 0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:08.760 there yet, you know you were very comfortable with a 0:11:08.800 --> 0:11:11.640 fabulous bank and you know major shot that they've moved 0:11:11.640 --> 0:11:13.880 on from here. They survived bell ski walking up. Of 0:11:13.920 --> 0:11:15.880 course it is the door and that's great and you've 0:11:15.880 --> 0:11:18.559 been total class act about it. I know some Canadian 0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:22.320 firms have picked you up. For everybody out there that 0:11:22.520 --> 0:11:26.440 just dreams about doing a bell ska, what's the biggest headache? 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:29.280 Well, you know, when you think about working for the 0:11:29.320 --> 0:11:31.520 man quote unquote for thirty six years, you think about 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:33.600 all the bad stuff. There's actually some really good things 0:11:33.600 --> 0:11:36.360 working for the man. That includes compliance and legal and 0:11:36.400 --> 0:11:37.720 all that kind of stuff. You wake up at two 0:11:37.720 --> 0:11:40.360 o'clock in the morning sometimes and you're thinking, oh my gosh, 0:11:40.400 --> 0:11:42.360 am I going to be able to make payroll? And 0:11:42.400 --> 0:11:45.319 so it's equal parts excruciating, but it's exciting. We've we 0:11:45.440 --> 0:11:47.840 really wanted to execute on Canada first time because nine 0:11:47.880 --> 0:11:49.200 and a half of our twelve and a half billion 0:11:49.240 --> 0:11:51.960 we're in Canada. So we have great platform partners in 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:55.920 RBC and National and now Ia Wealth in Canada, and 0:11:55.960 --> 0:11:58.800 we've executed on three ETFs and a mutual finding Canadas. 0:11:58.840 --> 0:12:01.040 We feel like the businesses is good there now. We 0:12:01.280 --> 0:12:04.160 last week we executed here on a brand new ETF 0:12:04.200 --> 0:12:07.000 and we've got some ore registered investment advisor partners here 0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:09.440 that we can be on the on the platform. What 0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:12.440 we do is provide a model for our value portfolio, 0:12:12.480 --> 0:12:13.319 our smid portfolio. 0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:15.800 We don't have clients. We just try to make people money. 0:12:15.800 --> 0:12:18.600 Well, TUNEA is just emailed in. He says, what's the ETF, 0:12:18.720 --> 0:12:21.480 what's the flavor of UTF you're doing with a four 0:12:21.559 --> 0:12:22.840 hundred others that were created. 0:12:22.920 --> 0:12:25.200 Here's the flavor you brought up the other part about 0:12:25.240 --> 0:12:26.959 owning all these stocks. Now, as you know, I was 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:29.520 an institutional strategist and the majority of my career. So 0:12:29.559 --> 0:12:31.959 you walk into all the smart people at JP Morgan, 0:12:31.960 --> 0:12:34.120 they own three hundred and fifty stocks too many. What 0:12:34.240 --> 0:12:37.600 we have learned in our extensive back testing is that 0:12:37.640 --> 0:12:38.400 fifty stocks is. 0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:39.400 Kind of the magic number. 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:42.200 You are correct, fifty stocks is I never give my 0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:46.400 opinion for Fidelity fifty And for the Sequoia people, what 0:12:46.480 --> 0:12:47.920 they invented was a miracle. 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:48.680 Go yeah. 0:12:48.720 --> 0:12:51.920 So we run a focused portfolio that's forty five stocks, 0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:54.360 or we run a value portfolio that's fifty stocks. We 0:12:54.440 --> 0:12:57.880 run a smid portfolio that's seventy five stocks around diviting growth. 0:12:58.000 --> 0:13:00.280 That is about dividing growth companies that grow the divid 0:13:00.320 --> 0:13:02.600 in overtime. They have castfolios about the divinil to fifty 0:13:02.640 --> 0:13:05.000 stocks against the aristocrats, and then we run an all 0:13:05.040 --> 0:13:06.760 cap that we put everything all together in that. 0:13:06.880 --> 0:13:09.160 Okay, you want to squeeze one more in here. 0:13:09.360 --> 0:13:11.160 I mean, look, I'm just listening. I'm just learning here, 0:13:11.200 --> 0:13:13.800 you know. I mean this is really well to run 0:13:14.080 --> 0:13:14.840 small and MidCap. 0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:16.079 I mean this is fun. 0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:18.679 I think research about to have a fair child. Right, 0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:20.520 I have two children that I know of, and we 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:23.400 run five. That was a joke. We have five portfolios. 0:13:23.640 --> 0:13:26.400 The smith is exciting because you can play longer term 0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:28.719 themes like we bought a company called Celsius a few 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:32.120 years ago. On tennis shoes, shake shack, these names that 0:13:32.160 --> 0:13:34.000 you want to be in longer term that kind of 0:13:34.000 --> 0:13:36.720 people have forgotten. They talk about but they don't really 0:13:36.760 --> 0:13:37.800 own brands retail. 0:13:38.000 --> 0:13:40.800 I can emphasis the bottle that you just heard their folks. So, 0:13:40.920 --> 0:13:44.360 mister Belski on fifty stocks, I don't know if it's 0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:47.200 fifty to thirty, it's not my opinion. It matters. But 0:13:47.320 --> 0:13:50.679 this is the revolution of half a century, and I 0:13:50.800 --> 0:13:53.360 say this is we just had the death of mister 0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:57.040 market wits to go from three hundred stocks down somewhere 0:13:57.080 --> 0:13:59.760 in the vicinity south of one hundred stocks is the 0:14:00.120 --> 0:14:05.040 absolute foundational structure of modern management. How seriously, how do 0:14:05.120 --> 0:14:07.160 the Twins look? They beat the Red Sox. 0:14:07.000 --> 0:14:09.600 And now they go to Chicago and they get crushed. 0:14:09.640 --> 0:14:12.960 I mean they're there and listen. I like their uniforms, 0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:15.920 love their unis. I'll be there next week. It's an 0:14:15.920 --> 0:14:18.480 eight minute walk for my place in Minneapolis. That's probably 0:14:18.520 --> 0:14:20.400 the best part of my life in terms of being 0:14:20.400 --> 0:14:21.920 in Minneapolis, to be able to go the Twins, and. 0:14:21.920 --> 0:14:24.360 Then there's the Vikings. Brian Belski, thank you so much. 0:14:24.400 --> 0:14:27.040 With humilists, can't say enough. He spends more time with 0:14:27.560 --> 0:14:28.080 than with us. 0:14:28.720 --> 0:14:30.720 It's the afternoon when. 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:32.240 Scott the answer is yes, okay. 0:14:32.280 --> 0:14:34.440 Brian Belski, thank you so much. 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:35.160 Appreciated. 0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:39.800 Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this. 0:14:47.040 --> 0:14:50.600 You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 0:14:50.680 --> 0:14:53.880 weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on 0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:57.320 Apple Karplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, 0:14:57.520 --> 0:14:59.160 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:01.760 Just start strong and now. Lindsay Rosser joins us Golden 0:15:01.800 --> 0:15:03.040 Success Management. 0:15:03.160 --> 0:15:03.840 So how has. 0:15:03.800 --> 0:15:06.800 Life changed with a Mando line them darkening the door? 0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:08.480 I mean, she's a terror. 0:15:08.680 --> 0:15:12.880 It's wonderful. It's you know, it's it's another blonde talking credit. 0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:17.200 Better. That was such a good album time, Petty Blonde's 0:15:17.240 --> 0:15:23.320 talking credit. Actually, seriously, what do you learn from Amanda 0:15:23.360 --> 0:15:26.640 Lignum when you reader works? How does it help you allocate? 0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:27.120 Yeah? 0:15:27.240 --> 0:15:32.440 No, she's she's really helpful andsightful. One of the pieces 0:15:32.440 --> 0:15:34.960 she had recently was talking about private credit and not 0:15:35.040 --> 0:15:39.120 being concerned about it being a systematic risk that we 0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:41.840 feel if you look at non accruls i e. Is 0:15:41.840 --> 0:15:45.200 anything going bad in the pockets of private credit, those 0:15:45.280 --> 0:15:49.200 numbers are actually low on average. Obviously their pockets like 0:15:49.240 --> 0:15:52.120 software where there are some concerns, for example, or retail. 0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:54.880 But she really just gives you the numbers and gives 0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:57.520 you the facts, and that's what you need to be 0:15:57.520 --> 0:16:00.120 able to manage portfolios in this market. And it's all so, 0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:01.400 by the way, good to have a buddy. 0:16:02.680 --> 0:16:05.720 Well, well, lindsay, I mean, you know, private credit notwithstanding, 0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:07.200 I mean we know about all the landmines that are 0:16:07.240 --> 0:16:08.040 kind of lurking there. 0:16:08.120 --> 0:16:09.960 Let's talk about public credit. I'd love to call it. 0:16:09.920 --> 0:16:12.240 You know, our audience's attention to the fact that investment 0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:14.240 grade corporate credit spreads here in the US are at 0:16:14.240 --> 0:16:16.080 the lowest since ninety eight. I think if you look 0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:18.280 at em sovereign and US high yield credit spreads, you're 0:16:18.320 --> 0:16:20.600 talking lowest in so seven. I mean, this is almost 0:16:20.600 --> 0:16:22.760 twenty years here, So you know, what are we missing? 0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:24.320 I mean I would have thought that the demand for 0:16:24.360 --> 0:16:26.560 private credit would have crowded out the public market. 0:16:26.720 --> 0:16:27.920 That doesn't appear to be happening. 0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:30.400 Well, I think there are two things. One to start 0:16:30.440 --> 0:16:33.560 with your ladder point, there isn't a crowding out because 0:16:33.640 --> 0:16:35.880 there's just a ton of money out. Look at all 0:16:35.880 --> 0:16:39.239 these deals getting done. There's no pushback, there's no hesitancy 0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:42.560 back to where spreads are all time tights looking a 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:45.760 twenty year window, There's been a big change in the 0:16:45.800 --> 0:16:47.360 constituents of the index. 0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:49.520 It's actually moved. 0:16:49.280 --> 0:16:51.560 In a way that we if you kind of adjust 0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:55.160 for the better credit quality, the shorter duration, we actually 0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:56.400 aren't at all time tights. 0:16:56.520 --> 0:16:57.920 There's a little bit more you can go. 0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:00.760 Now, now, let's be real that there's not a ton 0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:03.120 of a way We're not going to tighten another twenty 0:17:03.160 --> 0:17:06.600 basis points, but that perspective's helpful. What is really the 0:17:06.600 --> 0:17:09.919 most important thing are spreads justified? And when you look 0:17:09.960 --> 0:17:11.919 at earnings, you look at balance sheet, you look at 0:17:11.960 --> 0:17:14.080 again those technicals of cash answers. 0:17:14.160 --> 0:17:16.520 Yes, I was in Toronto a long time ago, back 0:17:16.560 --> 0:17:18.840 when the least were good, and I had the privilege 0:17:18.840 --> 0:17:21.560 of Sir John Templeton and room with myself. He was very, 0:17:21.680 --> 0:17:25.040 very kind, and he had that famous phrase, there will 0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:29.520 be a shortage of bonds here we are. Why Why 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:32.760 is there a shortage of bonds where everybody's nuts to 0:17:32.800 --> 0:17:34.960 issue and everything gets gobbled up? 0:17:35.240 --> 0:17:38.000 Sure, I think it's the demographic story, right. 0:17:37.800 --> 0:17:40.760