1
00:00:02,279 --> 00:00:16,279
Speaker 1: Yes, you might have heard the saying in investing that

2
00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:18,800
Speaker 1: you should sell one others are greedy and buy one,

3
00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:22,040
Speaker 1: others are fearful. That's a contrarian view. But how do

4
00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:25,479
Speaker 1: you take the contrary and view without proverbally trying to

5
00:00:25,520 --> 00:00:28,680
Speaker 1: catch the falling knife without being wrong? Well, there's somebody

6
00:00:28,720 --> 00:00:31,560
Speaker 1: that we're gonna sit down with today that is that contrarian.

7
00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:34,239
Speaker 1: I mean, has contrary and views, and he is not

8
00:00:34,840 --> 00:00:36,839
Speaker 1: ashamed to tell us where he thinks things are going.

9
00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:38,760
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, he has targets for the

10
00:00:38,880 --> 00:00:42,279
Speaker 1: SNP five, for the NASDAC, for the TAO. Um. We're

11
00:00:42,280 --> 00:00:46,440
Speaker 1: gonna get into what's driving that underneath, where those are going.

12
00:00:46,680 --> 00:00:50,000
Speaker 1: We're also going to dive into catalysts on gold, silver, Um,

13
00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:52,600
Speaker 1: what's driving those markets, why they've been dipping, why they're

14
00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,240
Speaker 1: going back up again? Um, what you should be looking

15
00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:57,280
Speaker 1: at to understand where they're going, and again, what his

16
00:00:57,360 --> 00:01:01,240
Speaker 1: targets are for gold and silver. We're gonna talk about oil,

17
00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:03,760
Speaker 1: We'll talk about other commodities. UM, we'll talk about the

18
00:01:03,800 --> 00:01:07,560
Speaker 1: bigger picture, like where things are really going, including over

19
00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:10,360
Speaker 1: the next couple of years, including the next decade. Um,

20
00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:13,560
Speaker 1: are we gonna see massive inflation. Are we gonna see deflation?

21
00:01:13,680 --> 00:01:15,640
Speaker 1: Is it going to be a big crash? And so

22
00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:17,880
Speaker 1: on and so forth. And we're gonna dig into what

23
00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,559
Speaker 1: he's looking at, why he thinks that, and where things

24
00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:24,200
Speaker 1: are going. We'll talk about um, the potential melt up

25
00:01:24,240 --> 00:01:27,320
Speaker 1: blow off top scenario, UM, how deep that could go,

26
00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,759
Speaker 1: how long it lasts for um, and so many other things.

27
00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:33,320
Speaker 1: It was a great conversation. Second time I've had um

28
00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:36,039
Speaker 1: David the Contrarian on the channel. UM, you do not

29
00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:37,760
Speaker 1: want to miss this. Let's go ahead, just jump right

30
00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:42,399
Speaker 1: into it. Contrarian, he's the contrarian macro advisor, UM, somebody

31
00:01:42,440 --> 00:01:44,520
Speaker 1: that goes against the mainstream. He's got a good voice,

32
00:01:44,520 --> 00:01:46,399
Speaker 1: and so I love to hear. So Dave, welcome back

33
00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:48,880
Speaker 1: to the channel again. Yeah, I'm glad to be back. Mark,

34
00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:52,280
Speaker 1: Thank you, Yeah, thanks Dave. UM. So, yeah, you are

35
00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:55,200
Speaker 1: Dave the contrarian. Um. You know a lot of times

36
00:01:55,360 --> 00:01:57,240
Speaker 1: I guess the old the old saying people probably knows,

37
00:01:57,240 --> 00:01:58,760
Speaker 1: you know, buy when there's blood in the street, or

38
00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:01,640
Speaker 1: um selling others are greedy, and by when others are fearful.

39
00:02:01,640 --> 00:02:04,040
Speaker 1: So I think that's kind of the contrarian um kind

40
00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:05,840
Speaker 1: of tell us about what you do and why you

41
00:02:05,840 --> 00:02:09,959
Speaker 1: have this contrary and approach and kind of how that works. Sure. Um, yeah,

42
00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:12,320
Speaker 1: I've been fourty eight years in the business and I'd

43
00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:15,960
Speaker 1: say almost from the get go I was contrarian. Um.

44
00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,480
Speaker 1: Kind of learned pretty early on that, you know, the

45
00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:23,960
Speaker 1: consensus was not necessarily the rewarding side of things. And

46
00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:28,680
Speaker 1: as I say, contrary and investing really means being very

47
00:02:28,720 --> 00:02:31,720
Speaker 1: contrary to politic stremes. So when the markets near the top,

48
00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:34,760
Speaker 1: everybody's bullish and you want to be opposite that. When

49
00:02:34,760 --> 00:02:37,959
Speaker 1: the market's near bottom, everybody's pretty parished and you want

50
00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:42,079
Speaker 1: to start looking for opportunities. So in the middle, I'm

51
00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:44,800
Speaker 1: not so contrary. And I get a lot of pushback

52
00:02:44,800 --> 00:02:48,560
Speaker 1: now because I'm talking about the melt up and being bullish,

53
00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:51,400
Speaker 1: and people go, yeah, you're you know, you're with everybody

54
00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:55,440
Speaker 1: else who has been bullish. Um. But it's it's later on,

55
00:02:55,520 --> 00:02:57,919
Speaker 1: as we get closer to the end of this, Um,

56
00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:00,480
Speaker 1: I'll get a lot of pushback for being parish and

57
00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:02,400
Speaker 1: people say, hey, this thing has a long way to

58
00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:05,560
Speaker 1: a goo. So, Um, you can't win as a country

59
00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:08,079
Speaker 1: and you're always kind of on the outside of people.

60
00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:11,520
Speaker 1: And when you're when you're contrary and say you're saying

61
00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,520
Speaker 1: something that everybody else agrees with. They want to know

62
00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:18,560
Speaker 1: where you're contrary ism is. So it's a tricky thing.

63
00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:22,600
Speaker 1: But um, I would say right now, UM, in the

64
00:03:22,680 --> 00:03:25,360
Speaker 1: shorter term, you've got a lot of people looking for

65
00:03:25,400 --> 00:03:29,120
Speaker 1: an exit here, people talking about the top uh, talking

66
00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:33,440
Speaker 1: about FED tightening and so, um, you know, my melt

67
00:03:33,560 --> 00:03:36,120
Speaker 1: up call is in a lot of ways contrary, even

68
00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:38,680
Speaker 1: though we're you know, kind of the ninth inning of

69
00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:44,080
Speaker 1: a long bullmark. Yeah, that's great. So everybody listening, I

70
00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:46,760
Speaker 1: want to die through several things, and we'll talk about

71
00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:49,320
Speaker 1: some FED policy. We're gonna talk about inflation, which continues

72
00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:53,360
Speaker 1: to keep going higher. Um, maybe the indexes, you know,

73
00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:55,640
Speaker 1: what's happening there, what we expect to happen. I want

74
00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:58,400
Speaker 1: to I definitely wanna talk about gold, silver oil, talking

75
00:03:58,400 --> 00:04:00,960
Speaker 1: about some political changes, things like that. So for everybody's

76
00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,040
Speaker 1: stay tuned for all that. We'll get David's contrary and

77
00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:06,800
Speaker 1: view on those things. But to your point, David jumping back, Um,

78
00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:09,400
Speaker 1: you are the contrarian, and so to your point, like

79
00:04:09,520 --> 00:04:11,840
Speaker 1: maybe right now you're kind of in consensus with everybody

80
00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:13,920
Speaker 1: about this melt up. But I can say that you

81
00:04:13,960 --> 00:04:16,760
Speaker 1: were calling it even when everybody was very very bearish.

82
00:04:17,400 --> 00:04:19,200
Speaker 1: I'm just curious though, before we start diving too those

83
00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:23,680
Speaker 1: individual topics. So, um, how does it work being contrary

84
00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:25,960
Speaker 1: at the at the ends? As you said, right, so

85
00:04:26,080 --> 00:04:28,720
Speaker 1: like when everybody's bearish or bullish or bullish or bearish

86
00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:30,960
Speaker 1: and so um, you know there may be a lot

87
00:04:31,000 --> 00:04:32,760
Speaker 1: of people have heard like never try to catch a

88
00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:37,479
Speaker 1: falling knife, So um, how do you be contrarian? But um,

89
00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:39,760
Speaker 1: still like not trying to catch that falling knife or

90
00:04:39,760 --> 00:04:42,920
Speaker 1: like wait for that trend to kind of develop. Sure, yeah,

91
00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:46,440
Speaker 1: just keep in mind I'm a strid just so I'm forecasting,

92
00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:50,560
Speaker 1: so I may be talking about you know, the the

93
00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:55,280
Speaker 1: SMP going to or higher. Um, that doesn't necessarily mean

94
00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:58,120
Speaker 1: I'm saying to people you've gotta stay in or you

95
00:04:58,120 --> 00:05:00,880
Speaker 1: should be bullish, because I'm not as a strategist, I

96
00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:03,680
Speaker 1: can't provide advice. Everybody's got to kind of figure out

97
00:05:03,800 --> 00:05:06,200
Speaker 1: for themselves how nimble they want to be, how close

98
00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:09,600
Speaker 1: to the edge they want to get. Um. But as

99
00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:12,280
Speaker 1: a forecaster, I'm trying to tell you where I think

100
00:05:12,320 --> 00:05:16,000
Speaker 1: the top is. So it's not necessarily an endorsement of

101
00:05:16,040 --> 00:05:19,040
Speaker 1: what you do from here. It's more just saying, hey,

102
00:05:19,080 --> 00:05:25,880
Speaker 1: the top is gonna be higher. Um yeah, hey guys,

103
00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:28,240
Speaker 1: let me just interrupt this interview real quick, just to

104
00:05:28,240 --> 00:05:31,520
Speaker 1: plug the show sponsor, and that is block Fi. Now.

105
00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:35,360
Speaker 1: Block five is doing amazing things in the bitcoin finance space.

106
00:05:35,520 --> 00:05:37,279
Speaker 1: As a matter of fact, they've cracked some really big

107
00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:40,480
Speaker 1: news by bringing on the x c ftc UM chair

108
00:05:40,560 --> 00:05:43,640
Speaker 1: Chris gian Carlo Um and they are one of the

109
00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:47,599
Speaker 1: most transparent, most heavily regulated UM companies inside the United States,

110
00:05:47,640 --> 00:05:49,880
Speaker 1: which gives me a lot of trust into what the

111
00:05:49,960 --> 00:05:52,520
Speaker 1: services are. Now, I've recently did a video talking about

112
00:05:52,600 --> 00:05:55,560
Speaker 1: how to retire off of bitcoin, and you can do

113
00:05:55,640 --> 00:05:59,240
Speaker 1: that by leveraging debt and interest against bitcoin. And block

114
00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:02,559
Speaker 1: five is the number one company in the United States

115
00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,200
Speaker 1: or maybe in the world to go to and use UM.

116
00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:07,640
Speaker 1: They are leading the charges or paying interest on your

117
00:06:07,640 --> 00:06:09,520
Speaker 1: bitcoin if you park it with them, or you can

118
00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:11,880
Speaker 1: borrow against it. Now, as I broke down in that video,

119
00:06:12,080 --> 00:06:14,480
Speaker 1: you can borrow against your bitcoin, and when you take

120
00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:17,600
Speaker 1: debt against it, it's not taxable. It's not a taxable event.

121
00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:19,320
Speaker 1: You can use that debt for anything that you want,

122
00:06:19,360 --> 00:06:21,880
Speaker 1: including to live off of, to leverage up and buy more,

123
00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:24,359
Speaker 1: or roll it into another asset. UM you can do

124
00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:26,880
Speaker 1: something like I've done recently, like sell some real estate

125
00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:29,880
Speaker 1: put that money into bitcoin. Now as that bitcoin price

126
00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:32,080
Speaker 1: has risen, I'm able to borrow against it and go

127
00:06:32,160 --> 00:06:34,520
Speaker 1: back and buy the same real estate or something similar,

128
00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:37,719
Speaker 1: and I still own the bitcoin, and I also own

129
00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:39,800
Speaker 1: the new asset as well. Lots of ways you can

130
00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:42,400
Speaker 1: do this UM and block five is the company that

131
00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:44,880
Speaker 1: I recommend. Down in the description, I have a link

132
00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:46,600
Speaker 1: that you can click on. If you choose to use

133
00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:48,479
Speaker 1: that link, you can earn up two fifty dollars in

134
00:06:48,520 --> 00:06:51,080
Speaker 1: bitcoin just for using that link. So check out block

135
00:06:51,120 --> 00:06:53,760
Speaker 1: fine now. And that's a good point. So like UM

136
00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:55,880
Speaker 1: in a melt up type scenario, when we go back

137
00:06:55,880 --> 00:07:00,839
Speaker 1: and look at you know, market rallies across UM and

138
00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:03,200
Speaker 1: that's a good point. So like UM in a melt

139
00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:05,040
Speaker 1: up type scenario, when we go back and look at

140
00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:07,680
Speaker 1: you know, market rallies across multiple sectors, we can see

141
00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:09,720
Speaker 1: that most of the growth that comes at that top

142
00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:12,400
Speaker 1: part of that that blowoff, but at the same time

143
00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:14,240
Speaker 1: it's also the most frothy, so you might see the

144
00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:16,960
Speaker 1: most turbulent. So I guess to your point, you're like, well,

145
00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:19,760
Speaker 1: I'm forecasting, but that doesn't mean there might not be

146
00:07:20,440 --> 00:07:24,040
Speaker 1: draw downs like in that stage or something like that. Maybe. Yeah.

147
00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:27,920
Speaker 1: More more importantly I think is that, yeah, volatility can

148
00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:30,880
Speaker 1: be very very great that they yeah, because the slope

149
00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:35,880
Speaker 1: is getting steeper. Um. But also, um, it's a case

150
00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:39,480
Speaker 1: of what comes after the top, and my opinion is

151
00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:41,720
Speaker 1: going to be very big. So it's a risk reward

152
00:07:41,760 --> 00:07:45,200
Speaker 1: thing where how you know, nobody's gonna call this thing perfectly.

153
00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:48,160
Speaker 1: Nobody's you know, certainly investors aren't gonna be able to

154
00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:50,440
Speaker 1: get in and get out exactly at the top and

155
00:07:50,440 --> 00:07:54,440
Speaker 1: then play perfectly unless they're damn lucky. So it really

156
00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:56,640
Speaker 1: comes down to you have to figure out for yourself

157
00:07:57,120 --> 00:08:00,320
Speaker 1: how how close do I want to come to that? Um,

158
00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:03,680
Speaker 1: we're in a fairly unique time because I think we're

159
00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:06,040
Speaker 1: at the end of a thirty nine year bull market.

160
00:08:06,760 --> 00:08:09,400
Speaker 1: I am what I am calling a historic top that

161
00:08:09,480 --> 00:08:14,240
Speaker 1: may stand from many decades. So that means the other

162
00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:16,800
Speaker 1: side of this, where I'm calling for a global bust,

163
00:08:17,680 --> 00:08:22,440
Speaker 1: is very high risk. So it even though we're close

164
00:08:22,520 --> 00:08:25,560
Speaker 1: in time, I think we're gonna see the bus before

165
00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:27,080
Speaker 1: the end of this year, we're gonna see a top

166
00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:29,480
Speaker 1: in the stock market, you know, probably in the next

167
00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:33,800
Speaker 1: few months. Um, even though we're close in time, the

168
00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:37,559
Speaker 1: last leg of this could be in certainly in the

169
00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:41,720
Speaker 1: nast that could be or more so, so you're in

170
00:08:41,760 --> 00:08:44,360
Speaker 1: a kind of a unique time where yes, time wise,

171
00:08:44,400 --> 00:08:49,640
Speaker 1: we're almost at the end, but return wise, return is

172
00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:52,760
Speaker 1: what we've normally see over a couple of years. So

173
00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:55,480
Speaker 1: it's really people have to kind of figure that out

174
00:08:55,480 --> 00:08:57,760
Speaker 1: for themselves, how how close to the vest they want

175
00:08:57,760 --> 00:09:01,640
Speaker 1: to be and how how much risk they to take. Um.

176
00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:04,559
Speaker 1: But understand that, yeah, when you're this late in the game,

177
00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:08,160
Speaker 1: risks are high. Returns can be high, but risks are

178
00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:12,319
Speaker 1: also high, and you just have to balance the two. Yeah.

179
00:09:12,520 --> 00:09:14,600
Speaker 1: So if we look at some uh, well first first

180
00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:16,440
Speaker 1: you said you may not return, so the market could

181
00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,160
Speaker 1: blow off, um, crash and then not return for a

182
00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:22,280
Speaker 1: couple of decades. That's a pretty big statement. But it's

183
00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:24,480
Speaker 1: this this historical precedence to that. So we've seen the

184
00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:27,120
Speaker 1: markets take twenty five years to get back to previous

185
00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:30,079
Speaker 1: all time high. Um, you know, we've dinna take fifteen

186
00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:31,839
Speaker 1: years to get back to previous all time mines. That's

187
00:09:31,880 --> 00:09:34,400
Speaker 1: really not that big of a stretch when when you

188
00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,520
Speaker 1: go back and look historically, but also looking historically, you

189
00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:40,960
Speaker 1: can see like the nineties, the nineties Nazdak boom, for example,

190
00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:43,440
Speaker 1: I mean that shot up a hundred percent in the

191
00:09:43,480 --> 00:09:46,800
Speaker 1: last twelve months. I think something like tents in the

192
00:09:46,880 --> 00:09:52,000
Speaker 1: last eighteen months. So isn't that that big considering some

193
00:09:52,040 --> 00:09:55,320
Speaker 1: of those historical numbers. Yeah, except that we've we've come

194
00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:58,360
Speaker 1: from you know, March, so we're already up a hundred

195
00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:01,960
Speaker 1: percent plus in an aspect. But that extra is you know,

196
00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:05,760
Speaker 1: from that bottom is pretty stepid. Yeah, and I could

197
00:10:05,760 --> 00:10:08,640
Speaker 1: exceed you know, my numbers for sure. The other side

198
00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:10,280
Speaker 1: of this, where I say it's not going to return

199
00:10:10,320 --> 00:10:13,400
Speaker 1: to the highs, that doesn't mean there won't be opportunities

200
00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:17,680
Speaker 1: after the bus after the bear market. We'll have a

201
00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:21,080
Speaker 1: seclical bull market following the bear market. It's just that

202
00:10:21,120 --> 00:10:25,920
Speaker 1: it won't be back to higher highs. And as you know, uh,

203
00:10:25,960 --> 00:10:29,320
Speaker 1: there's a mantra out there of you know, stay invested

204
00:10:29,400 --> 00:10:33,520
Speaker 1: because markets always going to new highs. Well, right, that

205
00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:36,640
Speaker 1: may not be true in the next couple of decades. Yeah,

206
00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:40,320
Speaker 1: And looking back at that. Historically, I just don't know

207
00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:43,000
Speaker 1: why you would want to sit through an draw down

208
00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:44,959
Speaker 1: it takes twenty five years to get back to its

209
00:10:44,960 --> 00:10:48,920
Speaker 1: previous all time high exactly. I mean most people, even

210
00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:52,200
Speaker 1: even younger people, can't afford that, I mean draw down.

211
00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:54,520
Speaker 1: I mean historically it shows that, right eight draw down

212
00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:57,800
Speaker 1: it takes twenty five years. No, no, thank you, not

213
00:10:57,880 --> 00:10:59,840
Speaker 1: for me. Yeah. I keep in mind that we have

214
00:11:00,200 --> 00:11:02,720
Speaker 1: had in the post World War two era, which is,

215
00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:05,280
Speaker 1: you know, the last seventy or eight years, we haven't

216
00:11:05,400 --> 00:11:08,280
Speaker 1: had well. You know, I think the two thousand and

217
00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:12,160
Speaker 1: eight nine sixty six percent draw down the biggest we've had.

218
00:11:12,200 --> 00:11:14,960
Speaker 1: So the last time we had an even draw down

219
00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:19,280
Speaker 1: was um so there's a lot of people say, that's

220
00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:23,560
Speaker 1: not gonna happen. You know, that's almost unprecedented. I just

221
00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:26,240
Speaker 1: think we're at extremes here where I think that's the setup,

222
00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:28,120
Speaker 1: where that's the risk is that we're going to see

223
00:11:28,160 --> 00:11:33,000
Speaker 1: a you know, percent decline. Yeah, now, before we get

224
00:11:33,000 --> 00:11:35,800
Speaker 1: into it, you know, indexes and commodities and things like that,

225
00:11:35,840 --> 00:11:39,120
Speaker 1: which which will um that. It seems like the catalyst

226
00:11:39,200 --> 00:11:41,840
Speaker 1: has been I mean, it seems pretty apparent. I wonder

227
00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:44,280
Speaker 1: if you agree, but has been obviously the Fed policy, right,

228
00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:46,640
Speaker 1: I mean, if eight trillion dollars been injected in the

229
00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:49,480
Speaker 1: last twelve months or whatever, and in addition, um, you know,

230
00:11:49,760 --> 00:11:53,120
Speaker 1: trillions of dollars more coming, you know, for infrastructure projects

231
00:11:53,120 --> 00:11:56,600
Speaker 1: and and and it seems to me there's no sign

232
00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:59,520
Speaker 1: of stopping this. And it seems like we really shifted

233
00:11:59,520 --> 00:12:01,559
Speaker 1: from like two thousand eight, which it seems like was

234
00:12:01,640 --> 00:12:04,920
Speaker 1: kind of reactionary, like oh, shoot, the market stop, let's

235
00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:06,880
Speaker 1: go ahead and start injecting money, to where now they're

236
00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:11,640
Speaker 1: like preemptively injecting money. Um and so um, it seems

237
00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:14,320
Speaker 1: like that's been driving it is that what you're seeing

238
00:12:14,320 --> 00:12:16,280
Speaker 1: as the catalyst for all these things, And it's so like,

239
00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,480
Speaker 1: I mean, how does that end up stopping? Are they

240
00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:21,920
Speaker 1: going to stop injecting money? For sure? If you if

241
00:12:21,920 --> 00:12:24,319
Speaker 1: you look, you know, if you superimpose the market on

242
00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:27,800
Speaker 1: a chart of fiscal and monetary policy, it's the correlation

243
00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:31,120
Speaker 1: is very strong. Um. So uh, you know, since March,

244
00:12:31,880 --> 00:12:36,240
Speaker 1: there's no doubt the driving element has been monetary policy

245
00:12:36,240 --> 00:12:40,319
Speaker 1: in particular, and you know, coupled with the relief spending

246
00:12:40,360 --> 00:12:44,520
Speaker 1: that we've seen route in response to the pandemic so

247
00:12:44,920 --> 00:12:49,200
Speaker 1: so for sure, Um, it's it's that it's driving things.

248
00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:53,520
Speaker 1: But keep in mind, monetary policy then leads to something real,

249
00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:58,960
Speaker 1: and so we're getting real changes in earnings, dramatic increase

250
00:12:59,040 --> 00:13:02,120
Speaker 1: in earnings, real change in GDP. We're probably gonna see

251
00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:06,080
Speaker 1: the biggest GDP a year that we've had since, you know,

252
00:13:06,520 --> 00:13:10,320
Speaker 1: for decades. Um So is that the biggest, the biggest,

253
00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:15,840
Speaker 1: the biggest growth change in GDP, phenomenal GDP and then

254
00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:20,640
Speaker 1: real probably puts inflation is still pretty low. Um So,

255
00:13:20,640 --> 00:13:23,200
Speaker 1: so those are real elements. I mean, people aren't just

256
00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:26,600
Speaker 1: buying air and you know money is just slashing around

257
00:13:26,640 --> 00:13:28,560
Speaker 1: and just go out and buy something that doesn't make sense.

258
00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:32,240
Speaker 1: So there is some logic to it. Um. The problem is,

259
00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:36,679
Speaker 1: um that that I don't believe that that can go

260
00:13:36,720 --> 00:13:38,680
Speaker 1: on forever, or that it can go on for a

261
00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:42,000
Speaker 1: lot longer, because I think we're starting to see the

262
00:13:42,040 --> 00:13:46,160
Speaker 1: downside of printing so much money is inflation. And although

263
00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:50,000
Speaker 1: we haven't in the last forty years had real problems

264
00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:54,160
Speaker 1: with inflation, um, it's starting to break out here from

265
00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:57,160
Speaker 1: long term down trends and the fact is going to

266
00:13:57,280 --> 00:14:01,040
Speaker 1: have their handsful. I think as we moved through this year. UM.

267
00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:05,000
Speaker 1: That's that's really the race here is between the fundamental

268
00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:07,560
Speaker 1: improvements that are coming as a as a response to

269
00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:13,240
Speaker 1: the or in response to the monitory and fiscal um policy,

270
00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:17,720
Speaker 1: and the inflation that that's going to cause. That's going ultimately,

271
00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:21,200
Speaker 1: I think, tie the Fed's hands, force them to have

272
00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:24,480
Speaker 1: to tighten. And the one thing that you can be

273
00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:28,200
Speaker 1: sure of is if they do tight this market's up

274
00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:33,600
Speaker 1: on stilts and it will it will respond negatively to that. Yeah,

275
00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:35,880
Speaker 1: I want to Uh, I want to dig into that

276
00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:38,520
Speaker 1: a little bit more. But maybe we're gonna we're gonna

277
00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:41,120
Speaker 1: come back to that because the FED maybe has some

278
00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:45,200
Speaker 1: other tools that they can use to control inflation. UM.

279
00:14:45,320 --> 00:14:47,280
Speaker 1: And uh, we'll come back to that. But before we

280
00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:49,280
Speaker 1: do that, let's just jump into a couple of things

281
00:14:49,280 --> 00:14:51,840
Speaker 1: that you've been tweeting about and talking about. UM. So

282
00:14:51,960 --> 00:14:54,280
Speaker 1: follow David on Twitter if you're not already, He's he

283
00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:56,320
Speaker 1: throws a lot of this stuff out there. We'll make

284
00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:58,520
Speaker 1: sure to link to it down below. But some of

285
00:14:58,600 --> 00:14:59,960
Speaker 1: the things, so if we if you if you jump

286
00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:01,520
Speaker 1: into stocks, and we have the you know, the main

287
00:15:01,560 --> 00:15:04,720
Speaker 1: three big stock indexes, UM, you've been saying that they're

288
00:15:04,760 --> 00:15:08,200
Speaker 1: kind of in this consolidation pattern, um, which they kind

289
00:15:08,200 --> 00:15:10,480
Speaker 1: of seem to be if you're if you're looking at them,

290
00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:12,920
Speaker 1: but you think you know, the tech stocks, the growth stocks, etta,

291
00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:15,840
Speaker 1: et cetera. Are still poised to make another run. So

292
00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:18,360
Speaker 1: maybe they're consolidating, building up energy and getting ready for

293
00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:21,920
Speaker 1: that next run. Is that what you're seeing? And if so, why, Yeah, absolutely,

294
00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,760
Speaker 1: I think. Um, if you look at particularly the fangs,

295
00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:30,040
Speaker 1: which were obviously the real driving part of last year's run, um,

296
00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:33,160
Speaker 1: they pretty much have gone sideways since the beginning of

297
00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:37,000
Speaker 1: the year. Uh, and you're just beginning to see them

298
00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,600
Speaker 1: lift out of that consolidation. Um. They haven't broken out

299
00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:44,240
Speaker 1: the new highs in most cases, but they are um

300
00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:47,000
Speaker 1: that going sideways. And I think that consolidation is pretty

301
00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:49,480
Speaker 1: well over. What what happens is you have a big

302
00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:53,760
Speaker 1: run and then you consolidate. You can either correct with

303
00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:57,400
Speaker 1: big downside or you can correct sideways for a period

304
00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:01,480
Speaker 1: of time, correct over boughts correct um kind of the

305
00:16:01,560 --> 00:16:04,680
Speaker 1: exuberants that everybody thinks they figured out they want to

306
00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:09,960
Speaker 1: own those stocks. Once they become non performers, people start

307
00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:12,680
Speaker 1: changing their mind on them, and that gives you another

308
00:16:12,920 --> 00:16:15,680
Speaker 1: chance to have another leg up. Uh. And that's what

309
00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,320
Speaker 1: I think we're on the verge of is that the fangs,

310
00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:23,400
Speaker 1: the tech stocks, NASDAC all have kind of been in

311
00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:27,720
Speaker 1: in a few months consolidation in thanks case longer than that,

312
00:16:28,320 --> 00:16:30,680
Speaker 1: and I think they're beginning to show signs that they're

313
00:16:30,680 --> 00:16:33,400
Speaker 1: going to break out in the next month and have

314
00:16:33,960 --> 00:16:37,320
Speaker 1: another leg up. So I think there's uh, you know,

315
00:16:37,360 --> 00:16:39,960
Speaker 1: what you normally see is that the things that got

316
00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:43,920
Speaker 1: you there, the leadership that that got you through this

317
00:16:44,080 --> 00:16:48,320
Speaker 1: bull cycle, typically goes right to the end, and I

318
00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:50,640
Speaker 1: think tech is going to lead right into the end.

319
00:16:50,760 --> 00:16:52,880
Speaker 1: So you've had a lot of people in the last

320
00:16:52,920 --> 00:16:57,080
Speaker 1: several months and particularly less month or two calling the

321
00:16:57,200 --> 00:16:59,600
Speaker 1: end of FANG and the end of NASDAK and the

322
00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:02,560
Speaker 1: end of tech, saying, you know, they've had their day.

323
00:17:02,560 --> 00:17:05,760
Speaker 1: Now they're gonna get hit hard. Um. I disagree. I

324
00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:08,240
Speaker 1: think there's one more leg up in those before you

325
00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:11,600
Speaker 1: get there, um, and they will be hit hard in

326
00:17:11,760 --> 00:17:15,720
Speaker 1: the bear market. But we're just not there yet. It

327
00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:18,760
Speaker 1: seems like the tech stocks really started to stumble when

328
00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:22,000
Speaker 1: the rates started ticking back up again, and maybe because

329
00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:26,040
Speaker 1: tech stocks are so um, you know, debt dependent, you know,

330
00:17:26,080 --> 00:17:29,280
Speaker 1: they need debt to continue to grow UM, and it

331
00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:33,440
Speaker 1: seems like maybe that was causing them to start to stumble. UM.

332
00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:35,360
Speaker 1: Do you see that? Is that something that you're looking

333
00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:37,520
Speaker 1: at and trying to compare against? And then yeah, I

334
00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:42,040
Speaker 1: actually I actually don't think it's it's UM that so much.

335
00:17:42,320 --> 00:17:45,480
Speaker 1: In fact, many of the big tech stocks don't have

336
00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:49,920
Speaker 1: the Christine balance sheets. UM. You know, it's it's lots

337
00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:52,000
Speaker 1: of other sectors that have much more debt on their

338
00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:54,800
Speaker 1: balance sheets. So it's not so much bad as it

339
00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:58,840
Speaker 1: is the tech tends to be UM. It tends to

340
00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:02,760
Speaker 1: be dominated by grow stocks. So with growth stocks, you're

341
00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:07,359
Speaker 1: paying for long term growth UM and and if rates

342
00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:10,560
Speaker 1: go up, you capitalize that growth that ever higher rates

343
00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:14,920
Speaker 1: means you're you know, you're gonna penalize your returns UM.

344
00:18:15,080 --> 00:18:18,040
Speaker 1: So when rates go up, it tends to hurt growth stocks,

345
00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:23,200
Speaker 1: whereas cyclical stocks UM because rates are going up because

346
00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:26,600
Speaker 1: inflation is going up. Cyclical stocks benefit from inflation pushing

347
00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:31,760
Speaker 1: up returns. So it really was more a case of yeah,

348
00:18:31,800 --> 00:18:35,679
Speaker 1: the bond market UM got hit. Interest rates went up.

349
00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:38,080
Speaker 1: You know, we saw the ten year ago from point

350
00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:42,040
Speaker 1: six to one point steven five in a matter of months,

351
00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:46,119
Speaker 1: and you can pretty much correlate that to when the

352
00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:50,040
Speaker 1: fangs in particular, but tech in general, um kind of

353
00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:54,080
Speaker 1: started losing performance and now you know, you get up

354
00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:56,359
Speaker 1: to one seventy five. I was, I think alone are

355
00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:59,720
Speaker 1: pretty close to a loan and calling for rates to

356
00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:03,040
Speaker 1: turn and back down and calling for a one on

357
00:19:03,119 --> 00:19:07,160
Speaker 1: the tenure. We're about halfway through that move, and it's

358
00:19:07,160 --> 00:19:10,680
Speaker 1: not coincidental that you know, tech start living there, lifting

359
00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:14,800
Speaker 1: uh their returns again or outperforming again the last month

360
00:19:14,880 --> 00:19:18,320
Speaker 1: as as rates came down. So I think that continues

361
00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:21,960
Speaker 1: here over the next month or two. Yeah, so the rate,

362
00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:23,840
Speaker 1: the rates kind of continue to slide down and then

363
00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:28,800
Speaker 1: the tech stocks continue to slide back up again. Yea yeah. Um.

364
00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:31,560
Speaker 1: So you know, the NASDAC was kind of known as

365
00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:34,119
Speaker 1: the tech index, but now it seems like even the

366
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:36,920
Speaker 1: SMP is made up and kind of dominated by tech

367
00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:40,480
Speaker 1: stocks as well. So, um, I guess then if you

368
00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:42,040
Speaker 1: if you're looking at the tech growth stocks, I mean,

369
00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:43,760
Speaker 1: both of those indexes are kind of driven by those

370
00:19:43,800 --> 00:19:47,600
Speaker 1: two asset classes or whatever, then that's why you consider

371
00:19:47,640 --> 00:19:50,440
Speaker 1: it or think those will continue higher. And if so, um,

372
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:53,240
Speaker 1: what are the kind of targets you're seeing there. Yeah,

373
00:19:53,280 --> 00:19:56,160
Speaker 1: My my target on now is back to the seventeen thousand.

374
00:19:56,359 --> 00:20:00,600
Speaker 1: So I think we're almost to the old highs here. Um,

375
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:02,480
Speaker 1: you know, selling off a little bit today, but we're

376
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:05,560
Speaker 1: not far off the old high of you know, where

377
00:20:05,560 --> 00:20:08,720
Speaker 1: we were a couple of months ago. Um. And so

378
00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:14,000
Speaker 1: you know, you're looking at probably close to upside from here. UM.

379
00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:19,119
Speaker 1: The SMP I'm looking for and I've said before it

380
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:23,119
Speaker 1: would not shock me to see five thousand. So um,

381
00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:27,080
Speaker 1: you know from here it's probably fifteen percent, but you know,

382
00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:28,960
Speaker 1: it could easily exceed that, and you could see it

383
00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:34,080
Speaker 1: up um and and and the Dow will will participate.

384
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:36,800
Speaker 1: They're certainly Tech in the Dow. But I'd also say,

385
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 1: as much as I think Tech is resuming leadership, it

386
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:43,479
Speaker 1: doesn't mean the cyclicals are now all of a sudden

387
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:46,840
Speaker 1: going to rotate out of favor. Um. They've been consolidating

388
00:20:46,880 --> 00:20:50,920
Speaker 1: for the last month. UM. But I think, um, they're

389
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:53,840
Speaker 1: likely to participate in the upside, just not quite as

390
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:56,520
Speaker 1: much as as the you know, the fangs and the

391
00:20:56,520 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 1: semi conductors and things like that. So I think we're

392
00:20:59,800 --> 00:21:02,320
Speaker 1: gonna to see a fairly broad rally right into the top.

393
00:21:02,720 --> 00:21:05,879
Speaker 1: You know, it's gonna be a lot of groups. I think, Um,

394
00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:10,120
Speaker 1: financials will probably lag because rates are coming down. Um.

395
00:21:10,200 --> 00:21:15,200
Speaker 1: And I've been fighting energy as you know, saying that

396
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:16,919
Speaker 1: that are due for a pull back here, and they

397
00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:20,280
Speaker 1: keep going higher. You know, they may not pull back,

398
00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:23,720
Speaker 1: but it looks to me like, um, they're overdue for

399
00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:25,680
Speaker 1: a pull back. They've been you know, you've had a

400
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:29,719
Speaker 1: nice run here from high fifties to over seventies. So

401
00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:34,520
Speaker 1: oil has so I would expect energy to probably lag

402
00:21:34,600 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 1: a bit here too, Not that they can't go up,

403
00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:40,160
Speaker 1: but they won't go up as much. Yeah, so um,

404
00:21:40,200 --> 00:21:43,000
Speaker 1: if we jump sectors. But staying on that trend, which

405
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 1: is uh, you know you talked about the tenure dropping well,

406
00:21:45,880 --> 00:21:48,440
Speaker 1: going up from point six to five and then coming

407
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:51,160
Speaker 1: back down to one point two. Oh um, it also

408
00:21:51,200 --> 00:21:54,919
Speaker 1: seems that corresponded exactly with gold's drop, right, So as

409
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,240
Speaker 1: soon as the goal as race started going up, gold

410
00:21:57,280 --> 00:22:00,480
Speaker 1: started dropping down. Um. And really it looked like it

411
00:22:00,520 --> 00:22:02,600
Speaker 1: was maybe a combination of the real rates, right, So

412
00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 1: the the rates minus the inflation. Um. Is that is

413
00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:09,040
Speaker 1: that kind of the numbers that you're looking at for gold?

414
00:22:09,080 --> 00:22:10,720
Speaker 1: And is so like what are you seeing there with gold.

415
00:22:10,760 --> 00:22:12,520
Speaker 1: I know you're predicting gold and so we're to still

416
00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:16,159
Speaker 1: making another really good run higher. UM, are those things

417
00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 1: that you're looking at or what else? Yeah? I think

418
00:22:19,720 --> 00:22:23,360
Speaker 1: certainly rates have shown themselves to be a big factor

419
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:27,600
Speaker 1: in the medals and particularly in gold. Unfortunately, I think,

420
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 1: or unfortunately or it's just reality. The al goes do

421
00:22:32,480 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 1: an awful lot in in the you know, in the

422
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:39,480
Speaker 1: macro space, and if if they have a certain relationship

423
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:43,080
Speaker 1: that they I think is important, it's gonna it's gonna play.

424
00:22:43,160 --> 00:22:45,920
Speaker 1: So so they've had it almost as a knee jerk

425
00:22:45,960 --> 00:22:50,080
Speaker 1: relationship that rates go up, gold goes down. Rates good down,

426
00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 1: gold goes up. So I think that's why it's corresponded

427
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,480
Speaker 1: so much. It's not always that tighter correlation, but with

428
00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 1: the all goes out there having the money they push around,

429
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:03,239
Speaker 1: I think that's part of what this is. UM. I

430
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:05,680
Speaker 1: think as we move here, certainly to move down to

431
00:23:05,760 --> 00:23:11,200
Speaker 1: one on the tenure and probably one on the thirty

432
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 1: year UM should help gold ends over, so we'll get

433
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:18,480
Speaker 1: a big part of the lift I think towards you.

434
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 1: You know my target on gold is so it's a

435
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:26,200
Speaker 1: big move from here and sober maybe forty five or fifty. Um,

436
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:29,119
Speaker 1: it won't all happen before we get to one t

437
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:33,119
Speaker 1: on the tenure. Um, I think they'll once. Once you

438
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 1: get a pretty significant move from here, then momentum kicks in,

439
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:42,040
Speaker 1: so it becomes not just interest rates, it becomes you know, um,

440
00:23:42,080 --> 00:23:45,439
Speaker 1: inflation is moving back up. Um, you know, just the

441
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:49,680
Speaker 1: tape is pushing things. So I think people who think

442
00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:51,720
Speaker 1: it's all rates are going to be surprised because I

443
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:55,400
Speaker 1: don't think it's all interest rates. Yeah. I think it's

444
00:23:55,560 --> 00:23:58,800
Speaker 1: uh pretty evident to anybody who's paying attention at all

445
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:01,880
Speaker 1: that all these mark its are so heavily manipulated. Um.

446
00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:04,560
Speaker 1: But it just seems like the gold and silver market

447
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,639
Speaker 1: just to me seems like the most manipulated overall. Um,

448
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,440
Speaker 1: not only because of the you know, giant paper market

449
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 1: versus physical also the amount of spoofing and things that happen,

450
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:16,440
Speaker 1: but but the lbm A setting the price of gold

451
00:24:16,440 --> 00:24:18,639
Speaker 1: on a phone call every day as well. How do

452
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,200
Speaker 1: you think those factors like really play into that price

453
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:24,120
Speaker 1: of gold and silver moving. Yeah, I'm I'm not one

454
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:29,359
Speaker 1: that that pushes the manipulation narrative. Spoofing is really dealing

455
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 1: with pennies. I mean, it's the day to day stuff,

456
00:24:31,880 --> 00:24:35,240
Speaker 1: but it doesn't it's not what impacts whether gold goes

457
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:39,639
Speaker 1: up or down. You know, it's big moves. Um. I

458
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 1: it's certainly manipulation is part of markets if you want

459
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 1: to talk about trading desks doing things and you know,

460
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 1: trying to play um what they see as edges and things. UM.

461
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 1: But I think people think manipulation meaning the Feds manipulating it,

462
00:24:56,040 --> 00:25:00,359
Speaker 1: or the banks are manipulating because there you know, they're short, older,

463
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 1: what have you. UM. I'm not such a big believer

464
00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:07,280
Speaker 1: in that, partly because we we saw gold go from

465
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:14,199
Speaker 1: twur and fifty dollars in two thousand one in eleven,

466
00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 1: so in the decades time, and during that time, there

467
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 1: was a lot of you know, banks with the same

468
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,359
Speaker 1: positions they have now or in the same situations. So

469
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:28,679
Speaker 1: where was the manipulation hold rolled down the um? You know,

470
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,920
Speaker 1: I just think it's an easy thing to argue, partly

471
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 1: because of expectations on the part of investors. There's so

472
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:39,119
Speaker 1: many investors out there that want to believe in gold

473
00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:41,440
Speaker 1: and want to believe that goal is going to take off,

474
00:25:41,600 --> 00:25:44,399
Speaker 1: and you know, think that all this money printings are

475
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:48,199
Speaker 1: gonna lead to hyper inflation, etcetera. That when gold doesn't

476
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 1: move as fast as they think it should, all of

477
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,639
Speaker 1: a sudden they got to find something. You know, what's

478
00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,360
Speaker 1: what's going on here that's not real. So I think

479
00:25:56,400 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 1: manipulation is way overstated. It's not that it doesn't happen

480
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:04,760
Speaker 1: or not having influence there. I also think we underestimate

481
00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:09,840
Speaker 1: um because there is um so much retail interest and

482
00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 1: interest in generally in the medals. They get over brought

483
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,439
Speaker 1: very quickly the minute they lift their heads, but shape

484
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 1: runs in. And I think a lot of the movement

485
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:22,520
Speaker 1: where they disappoint people without you know, with with the

486
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:25,719
Speaker 1: fact that they get cut short, is because there is

487
00:26:25,800 --> 00:26:29,200
Speaker 1: so much speculation in them, people wanting them to go fast.

488
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:32,400
Speaker 1: So I on Twitter, you'll see me say markets move

489
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 1: when they're ready, not when you're ready. You know, it's

490
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:37,680
Speaker 1: it's you know, it's not always what you think it

491
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 1: should do. It's it's you know, markets have lots factors involved. Hey,

492
00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:45,120
Speaker 1: sorry to interrupt this video just one more time. I'm

493
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:47,960
Speaker 1: not running Google ads. So it's actually way less interruption

494
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:50,120
Speaker 1: than I normally would have on a video. And that's

495
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 1: because it's sponsored by block five um. They are opening

496
00:26:53,800 --> 00:26:56,639
Speaker 1: up the world of bitcoin and financial products offering to

497
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 1: pay you interest on your bitcoin um better than a

498
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 1: in a rental property that you have to manage and

499
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 1: control and have the risks. You can just earn interest

500
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:06,399
Speaker 1: on it, or you can leverage against it. Now, I

501
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:10,119
Speaker 1: plan to hold my bitcoin forever and literally never sell

502
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:12,200
Speaker 1: my bitcoin. So how do you do that? Well, if

503
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:14,280
Speaker 1: I need money, I don't want to sell that bitcoin.

504
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:16,400
Speaker 1: I'm gonna pay tax on it, all right, I'm gonna

505
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:18,719
Speaker 1: end up with less and I don't have the bitcoin anymore.

506
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:20,880
Speaker 1: So a better way to do it is to borrow

507
00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 1: against the bitcoin. So I've put all my money into bitcoin.

508
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 1: If I want to buy a car, or I want

509
00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:28,400
Speaker 1: to buy a house, I can borrow against it at

510
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 1: very very low competitive rates. Get my house, get my car,

511
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 1: whatever that may be, and get to keep the bitcoin.

512
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:36,920
Speaker 1: I've done a whole video on this. You can find it.

513
00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:38,959
Speaker 1: I'll link it down to the description below. How to

514
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 1: retire off a bitcoin without paying taxes, and you can

515
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,000
Speaker 1: do that with block fight services. A link to the

516
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:45,640
Speaker 1: video down below. I'm also going to put a link

517
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:47,399
Speaker 1: to block fight if you choose to click on that

518
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 1: link to check them out. You can earn up to

519
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:51,920
Speaker 1: two fifty dollars in free bitcoin just for using that link.

520
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 1: And that's it. Let's go ahead and get back to

521
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:57,360
Speaker 1: the interview. Yeah, you mentioned the two thousand and eight

522
00:27:57,400 --> 00:27:59,840
Speaker 1: so you know, gold crashed along with stocks. I think

523
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,400
Speaker 1: got down to fourteen fifty or something like that, but

524
00:28:03,440 --> 00:28:05,440
Speaker 1: it recovered really quickly. I think it took six seven

525
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:07,399
Speaker 1: months to go back to its previous high as stocks

526
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 1: to six seven years. Um. But you know that seemed

527
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,359
Speaker 1: like it was a response to um, you know, the

528
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,240
Speaker 1: seven hundred billion dollar tart bell out and then the

529
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 1: que that resumed after that, um, and we saw maybe

530
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:21,920
Speaker 1: just you know, one or two trillion pushed it from

531
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 1: nine d um. Now we have eight trillion, and so uh,

532
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 1: we're we're not even able to get past to the

533
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:32,000
Speaker 1: high we set in two thousand eleven with with one

534
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 1: or two trillion dollars printed. I mean, if it was

535
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,080
Speaker 1: ever gonna work, it should work now, right. Yeah, I

536
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:41,000
Speaker 1: want to correct one thing. The balance sheets really only grown,

537
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,480
Speaker 1: um my loose track of numbers, but we're up to

538
00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:50,720
Speaker 1: eight trillion. You know, started in March, uh, wherever we

539
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,560
Speaker 1: were three and a half trillion, So it's not up

540
00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:58,000
Speaker 1: eight trillions, UM, you know, four trillion probably that that's

541
00:28:58,000 --> 00:29:01,560
Speaker 1: a that's a blend of fiscal and monetary Okay, yeah,

542
00:29:01,600 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 1: but yeah, I mean I think that money is going

543
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 1: to have influence. I mean, it's certainly what's driving UM

544
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:12,000
Speaker 1: the inflation with a lag, and I do think we

545
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 1: have more than transitory inflation here. So that's I mean,

546
00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 1: that's my story in terms of the bust, is that

547
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 1: I think inflation does become a real problem later this year,

548
00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:24,719
Speaker 1: and so a lot of this is also the lags.

549
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 1: Monetary policy UM needs to move through to a point

550
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 1: where it does drive the inflation, and we're getting to

551
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 1: that inflection point I think where it's going to become problematic,

552
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 1: probably by the end of the summer. Yeah, So inflation

553
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 1: is not transitory. There's some of it is. I mean,

554
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 1: for sure, the FED is not just um pushing out

555
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 1: a narrative to give them room to print. I think

556
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 1: there really is some that is applied chain oriented and

557
00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 1: can go away once, you know, things get cleared up.

558
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 1: We really had a situation where for many years the

559
00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:09,040
Speaker 1: industrial side of the economy were wide was not the

560
00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 1: driving element. It was the consumer and here and you

561
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 1: know here in the last year and a half, with

562
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 1: with all the money that's been printed not just by

563
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 1: the FED but by central branks around the world and

564
00:30:19,680 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 1: everything going on you know in Europe and China, in

565
00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 1: the US and Canada, Australia, etcetera. It's all come together

566
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 1: to push out this this huge demand for for materials.

567
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 1: And yet the materials companies had had kind of ratcheted

568
00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 1: down their capacity because they never thought they were going

569
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 1: to see that kind of demand again. So we've had

570
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 1: this big ramp up in demand and the companies are

571
00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 1: just not able to produce to meet that demand. That

572
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:52,520
Speaker 1: ramp up will at some point slow down and they

573
00:30:52,560 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 1: can catch up somewhat. So so that part of it

574
00:30:55,760 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 1: is transitory. But ultimately you can label it trying story

575
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 1: or whatever they want to. If inflation really starts to

576
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 1: heat up even more, um by fall, I don't think

577
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:11,080
Speaker 1: I can just say, hey, we have you know, we're

578
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:13,040
Speaker 1: just gonna bank on our faith to the trans story.

579
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna have to react, which means okay,

580
00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 1: so let's uh, let's let's add a little flavor onto

581
00:31:21,640 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 1: this for a minute. So UM, I know you know,

582
00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 1: we talked about finance stuff, and UM, I get comments

583
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 1: a lot if I dip into this, But like I

584
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:31,520
Speaker 1: listened to you for finance, I don't want to listen

585
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 1: to you about politics. UM. But you can't really understand

586
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:37,360
Speaker 1: one without the other, right, because it's the political uh

587
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,239
Speaker 1: initiatives that go in that seem to drive this. And

588
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 1: so we can see there's obviously like these these these

589
00:31:43,400 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 1: political changes that are happening UM. And so we can

590
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:50,520
Speaker 1: see there's this shift to moving two more U B I.

591
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 1: So we can see there's a shift of you know,

592
00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 1: the political movement kind of going to one side. So

593
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:58,960
Speaker 1: we're seeing you know, more E S G narratives that

594
00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 1: are you know, wanting to kind control and capture UM

595
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:04,440
Speaker 1: the way businesses work. And at the same time, a

596
00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:07,640
Speaker 1: shift to you know, more UBI money printing, more infrastructure

597
00:32:07,680 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 1: printing and stuff like that. UM. And then so I'm

598
00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:14,960
Speaker 1: curious how you look at those too affect your outlooks

599
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 1: on things. So, for example, UM, in the United States

600
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:20,240
Speaker 1: and most of the developed world, there's this huge push

601
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 1: to move to renewable cars, right, no more ice combustion engines.

602
00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 1: We want to move to renewables. So how does that

603
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 1: affect oil. Um, your your outlook on oil, I should say,

604
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 1: and then also other assets or I should say commodities

605
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 1: like lithium or cobalt and things like that. Do you

606
00:32:36,760 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 1: do you take those things into consideration? UM? Yes, definitely.

607
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:43,080
Speaker 1: I mean, but my my feeling is on the oil

608
00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:47,920
Speaker 1: UM that we you know, you have policy out there

609
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 1: pushing a certain view. It's not realistic in terms of

610
00:32:53,000 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 1: their time frame of when you're gonna be able to

611
00:32:55,840 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 1: produce enough energy from alternatives, etcetera to meet the demand.

612
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 1: So that means oil is not going away anytime soon.

613
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:08,920
Speaker 1: And in fact, because your policy is also UM trying

614
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 1: to limit carbon fuels because you think they're evil or

615
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:17,000
Speaker 1: what have you, or polluting, UM, you're gonna run into

616
00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,440
Speaker 1: a situation where we're not going to have and you know,

617
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 1: we're gonna have a tight supply demand situation. And as

618
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 1: a result, it's gonna you know, the thing that gives

619
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 1: when you have a very tight supply demand situation as price.

620
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 1: So that's part of my forecast out probably in seven

621
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 1: is that we'll see three plus oil and that's because

622
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 1: they've restricted the supply artificially by shutting it down, but

623
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 1: the demand hasn't really gone away, and and the demand

624
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 1: because we're gonna see and I'm jumping ahead, but if

625
00:33:50,280 --> 00:33:54,080
Speaker 1: we have a global bust, which I am forecasting, and

626
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:58,479
Speaker 1: I define a bust does something that's almost um in

627
00:33:58,560 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 1: many respects like the shild but happens at the speed

628
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 1: of a recession. If we have a global bus, you're

629
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 1: going to see a response from montary and fiscal authorities.

630
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 1: That's many times what we've seen in the last year

631
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 1: and a half. So many times that's a huge statement.

632
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:17,239
Speaker 1: I mean, we've we've seen something here that we've never

633
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 1: seen before. If you then multiply that by several times,

634
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 1: that will then spur big demand in the next cycle.

635
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,239
Speaker 1: For you know, the materials that we're seeing already are

636
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:31,759
Speaker 1: in short supply, So the next cycle, I think there's

637
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:35,920
Speaker 1: going to be huge not only supply issue, but a

638
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:39,959
Speaker 1: big demand for that oil that's gonna, you know, lead

639
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 1: to something we've never seen to the degree we're going

640
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:45,360
Speaker 1: to see it in terms of a tight supply demand.

641
00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 1: Uh So, So yes, E s G plays a role

642
00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 1: in that because I think there frankly, I just think

643
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:57,279
Speaker 1: they're unrealistic about their expectations and it's only going to

644
00:34:57,320 --> 00:35:01,239
Speaker 1: exacerbate what's coming. What we we would have you know,

645
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 1: pretty um, pretty big moves in all the commodities no

646
00:35:06,239 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 1: matter what. But I think he s g just exacerbates it. Yeah,

647
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:14,360
Speaker 1: well I would agree with that statement that it's unrealistic.

648
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,759
Speaker 1: It doesn't seem to stop them. So, um my my

649
00:35:17,880 --> 00:35:21,240
Speaker 1: previous state, California. You know, they've shut down the natural

650
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:24,799
Speaker 1: gas and the nuclear power plants to maneuve to renewable. Well,

651
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:27,520
Speaker 1: the renewable isn't enough, but that doesn't seem to stop him.

652
00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:30,759
Speaker 1: So now there's willing blackouts. Um. So even though it's

653
00:35:30,800 --> 00:35:33,479
Speaker 1: unrealistic and it's proven that it doesn't work, um, doesn't

654
00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 1: seem to stop him. I guess we're just okay being

655
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:38,360
Speaker 1: without power sometimes. Yeah, well look what happened in Texas

656
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 1: last whatever. You know, we're we're making some policy decisions

657
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:46,080
Speaker 1: that I think are based on theories and based on

658
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 1: hopes rather than based on reality. And you know, as

659
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:52,520
Speaker 1: a result, it's gonna be cool. You know, it's gonna

660
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:54,719
Speaker 1: there's gonna be some pain as a result of some

661
00:35:54,760 --> 00:36:00,400
Speaker 1: of these policies that we're making. Yeah, um, what about

662
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:05,719
Speaker 1: some of this great reset stuff? So um by you'll

663
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 1: own nothing, you'll be happy, which, of course, UM, that's

664
00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:10,880
Speaker 1: a big statement by the world I kind of make forum.

665
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 1: But then back to some of the stuff we're seeing now,

666
00:36:14,560 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 1: maybe some of the stuff is playing out which is

667
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 1: limiting the amount of energy production, um, the amount of

668
00:36:19,880 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 1: energy can produce, putting laws into place that limit that

669
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:26,359
Speaker 1: how much energy can be used by businesses and people UM.

670
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:28,439
Speaker 1: And then even maybe some of this stuff for black

671
00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:30,479
Speaker 1: rocks buying if all the single family homes and people

672
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,360
Speaker 1: can't even buy them now they have to be renters. UM.

673
00:36:33,400 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 1: I guess that's a longer term view. I mean, is

674
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:37,360
Speaker 1: that stuff that you're looking at and thinking about like

675
00:36:37,400 --> 00:36:40,200
Speaker 1: over a longer term lens. Um. Yeah, I think it's

676
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 1: all gonna play out. I mean, I have to say

677
00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 1: my I guess I kind of keep it simple stupid

678
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:49,960
Speaker 1: from the standpoint of UM, I think the global bus

679
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:52,360
Speaker 1: is gonna be the biggest downturn we've had since the

680
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:56,359
Speaker 1: Great Depression, UM. And I think it's going to lead

681
00:36:56,400 --> 00:37:02,520
Speaker 1: to UM huge monitoring first goal response all around the globe.

682
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 1: But before we get to that monetary physical response, we're

683
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:09,640
Speaker 1: gonna have a you know, a real financial crisis on

684
00:37:09,680 --> 00:37:12,520
Speaker 1: our hands bigger than two thousand eight nine, and again

685
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:16,759
Speaker 1: this is global UM that then that then leads to

686
00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:21,239
Speaker 1: UM you know, the response, which then with a lag,

687
00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 1: leads to another recovery cycle, but one with an entirely

688
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 1: different focus because it's going to be pushed by physical spending,

689
00:37:28,840 --> 00:37:32,000
Speaker 1: which means it's going to be infrastructure driven, and again

690
00:37:32,040 --> 00:37:34,879
Speaker 1: not just in the US but across the globe. So

691
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:39,719
Speaker 1: you're gonna get into all of that UM. And I understand,

692
00:37:40,040 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 1: you know, the view of a reset and that we're

693
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:45,319
Speaker 1: gonna collapse here and they're gonna, you know, change to

694
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:50,279
Speaker 1: a different reserve currency or basket of currencies, etcetera. I

695
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:54,920
Speaker 1: just think it's premature to be expecting that now. I

696
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:58,879
Speaker 1: think the real time the d day for when all

697
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:02,759
Speaker 1: this stuff kind of UM comes to a head is

698
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:08,120
Speaker 1: probably out late this decade early next decade, when you have,

699
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 1: as a result of a bus leading too much more

700
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:18,319
Speaker 1: policy expansion UM, meaning that you're gonna have inflation going

701
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:20,840
Speaker 1: probably all the way back to where we were in

702
00:38:20,840 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 1: the early eighties, meaning fifteen inflation plus interest rates, and

703
00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 1: that's going to come in direct conflict with the need

704
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 1: to finance all this depth that's been flooded on the system.

705
00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 1: I don't know how that happens, so I think it

706
00:38:39,120 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 1: leads to a collapse. So I think the reset is

707
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 1: forced upon. It is not by the I m f

708
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 1: not and it's not going to be just a US situation.

709
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:49,759
Speaker 1: I think. I think the risk is that when we

710
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:53,359
Speaker 1: get to the thirties, we're looking at a total worldwide

711
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:58,239
Speaker 1: economic collapse and financial collapse, and what comes out of that,

712
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 1: um my years a totalitarianism UM. But it's not this,

713
00:39:04,880 --> 00:39:06,799
Speaker 1: I can tell you. I am not in the camp.

714
00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 1: I think it's silly, this um idea that the sooner

715
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:14,400
Speaker 1: we have this collapse the better because then we can reset.

716
00:39:14,520 --> 00:39:17,799
Speaker 1: And that grammarily on our way. Not gonna how it's

717
00:39:17,840 --> 00:39:23,080
Speaker 1: gonna happen. We are really in a crisis period um

718
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:25,719
Speaker 1: for this country in particular, because we were, you know,

719
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:28,799
Speaker 1: the economic leader of the world um. And that's going

720
00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 1: to have a major impact on the rest of the world.

721
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:35,040
Speaker 1: And I really do fear New World Order, in my opinion,

722
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 1: is code for a communist take over the world, and

723
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 1: that seems to be the most likely direction we're going.

724
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:44,320
Speaker 1: Uh And frankly, there's a lot of useful idiots in

725
00:39:44,360 --> 00:39:48,400
Speaker 1: this country that are kind of thinking new World orders

726
00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:51,880
Speaker 1: something good and there maybe find out it's not not

727
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:55,759
Speaker 1: what they thought it was. Yeah, definitely I agree with

728
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 1: that perspective. I think it happened sooner than the next decade.

729
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 1: But you we'll see what that happens. But um, to

730
00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:04,360
Speaker 1: your point, you know about this moving to totalitarianism and

731
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:08,000
Speaker 1: the reason why I think this is an important to understand. Um. Uh.

732
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 1: Mark Karney, head of the b o E, came out

733
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:14,680
Speaker 1: a couple of days ago and he said that a

734
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:20,200
Speaker 1: quote climate emergency that threatens life on Earth he claims

735
00:40:20,320 --> 00:40:26,400
Speaker 1: requires rigid controls on personal freedom. That's his quote, right,

736
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:29,719
Speaker 1: So it's a climate emergency, so um, in order to

737
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:33,919
Speaker 1: preserve life on Earth, it claims it requires rigid controls

738
00:40:33,960 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 1: and personal freedom. And what would those controls on personal

739
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 1: freedom be? Consumption, energy, expenditure, um, things like that. Right.

740
00:40:41,640 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 1: So uh, no doubt, Um, we're moving that direction because

741
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 1: they're telling us we're moving that direction. He said it

742
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 1: right here. The sad part is um, And again I

743
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:55,359
Speaker 1: think a lot of people are useful idiots that don't

744
00:40:55,440 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 1: know what they're doing. But I also have to wonder

745
00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:01,439
Speaker 1: when you hear it from Mark Kearney, who should know better,

746
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:05,280
Speaker 1: or you know, lots of our leaders in this country.

747
00:41:06,040 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 1: You've got to believe that. You know, again, there's there's

748
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,759
Speaker 1: a lot of people in on this thing, and I

749
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:15,040
Speaker 1: think they're crazy to want this, But you know, you can't,

750
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:21,800
Speaker 1: you can't explain logically evil, mean and frankly, that's what

751
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:25,440
Speaker 1: I do think. Um, that's what they want. They want

752
00:41:25,480 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 1: to move us towards this one world, the government that's

753
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:31,080
Speaker 1: going to control our lives and do all of that.

754
00:41:31,280 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 1: I don't know why. I don't know why anybody that's

755
00:41:34,239 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 1: seen what we had in America would want to go

756
00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:38,520
Speaker 1: a different direction. But all I can say is that

757
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:41,279
Speaker 1: seems to be the direction we're headed. And some of

758
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:45,120
Speaker 1: these people should know better. Um. And so you know,

759
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:49,320
Speaker 1: Mark Karney saying that is concerning Frankly at this point,

760
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:54,120
Speaker 1: given what's happened in what I call supercycle that I

761
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:58,560
Speaker 1: define a supercyclists. The big cycle is between two depressions,

762
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:01,840
Speaker 1: the last depression being the Great Depression of the thirties,

763
00:42:02,280 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 1: the next depression I believe being the thirties, and so

764
00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:09,920
Speaker 1: we're in the last decade of a supercycle. In my opinion,

765
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:12,240
Speaker 1: this is all pretty much baked in the cake anyway

766
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 1: that you know, I am not a fan of by

767
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:17,759
Speaker 1: the administration or what they're doing. I'm not a fan

768
00:42:17,840 --> 00:42:20,719
Speaker 1: of climate change. For this redistribution of income is really

769
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:25,560
Speaker 1: what its motivation is. Um And I'm saddened by see

770
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:27,920
Speaker 1: how many people are kind of bamboozled by all that.

771
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:34,279
Speaker 1: But um, but I think even even without them, this

772
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:36,759
Speaker 1: is almost it's so late in the game now you

773
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:41,320
Speaker 1: can't turn back. And and earlier on, it wasn't driven

774
00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:45,040
Speaker 1: by an agenda. Earlier on, it was just a natural

775
00:42:46,000 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 1: process that moving from a system that came out of depression.

776
00:42:50,640 --> 00:42:53,160
Speaker 1: People knew the lesson they learned in the depression, and

777
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 1: you get so far removed from them, and now people

778
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 1: think there's a free lunch and let's let's have mm T,

779
00:42:58,760 --> 00:43:03,320
Speaker 1: let's just print and spend money because there's always you know,

780
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:05,759
Speaker 1: rates are low and they're always gonna be low. Well,

781
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:09,000
Speaker 1: no they aren't. Yeah, yeah, I mean you get to

782
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:10,839
Speaker 1: a situation, you know, kind of like what the Fourth

783
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:13,880
Speaker 1: Turning talks about, where you have um generations who have

784
00:43:14,120 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 1: never produced. All they do is consumes, so they're living

785
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 1: off the production of generations before them, So they don't

786
00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:21,880
Speaker 1: have a real world understanding. But yeah, they're the ones

787
00:43:21,920 --> 00:43:24,600
Speaker 1: in academia and politics that are making the decisions, and

788
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:27,080
Speaker 1: so it's unfortunate, you know what happens with that. But

789
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:29,759
Speaker 1: if we take that and then kind of take a

790
00:43:29,800 --> 00:43:31,719
Speaker 1: couple of steps backwards to worry worse, we'll kind of

791
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:33,600
Speaker 1: bring this back to full circle and will wrap it up.

792
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:37,440
Speaker 1: But so if we understand that they have this um

793
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:41,759
Speaker 1: need and to push towards more control, we can see this.

794
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 1: I just told you Mark Karney, I read his quote.

795
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:46,919
Speaker 1: They want that. UM. We can see that they're really

796
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:49,839
Speaker 1: driving this economy, right. So they're they're they're they want

797
00:43:49,840 --> 00:43:52,759
Speaker 1: to print this infrastructure, they want to push money for renewables,

798
00:43:53,080 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 1: push money to push this E S G narrative. Um.

799
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 1: It's obviously crushing economies all over the world, but no problem,

800
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:01,480
Speaker 1: will print money for them as well. UM. So it

801
00:44:01,520 --> 00:44:03,320
Speaker 1: seems like they really want to drive this. Now you

802
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:06,880
Speaker 1: have talked about earlier about that's pushing inflation UM. But

803
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:10,160
Speaker 1: they may need to pull back on that money printer

804
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:13,160
Speaker 1: to to to stave off inflation. UM. But at the

805
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:15,680
Speaker 1: same time, if they do, the whole thing could fall apart.

806
00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:19,840
Speaker 1: So they have other tools like yield curve control, for example,

807
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:23,759
Speaker 1: to suppress the rates. It could even go as bad

808
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:28,360
Speaker 1: as controlling prices to limit inflation. And we've seen countries

809
00:44:28,360 --> 00:44:30,759
Speaker 1: already talking about that. We've even seen people in the

810
00:44:30,840 --> 00:44:34,880
Speaker 1: United States talking about that. So, UM, I guess in

811
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:39,000
Speaker 1: light of all that, UM, do you think this this uh,

812
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:42,520
Speaker 1: this blowoff top as you're projecting right, this draw down

813
00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:44,360
Speaker 1: that could happen, you know, in the next year or something.

814
00:44:45,280 --> 00:44:48,879
Speaker 1: Is that because um, they go till they blow meaning

815
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:51,320
Speaker 1: they're full pedal to the metal, printing as much amazing

816
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 1: can and it just stops working, um, diminishing returns. Or

817
00:44:55,400 --> 00:44:57,560
Speaker 1: is it that they're like, Wow, inflation is way too hot.

818
00:44:57,760 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 1: We need to pull back and it's more of like

819
00:44:59,200 --> 00:45:03,239
Speaker 1: a self induced Yeah, it's it's really a case where

820
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:06,239
Speaker 1: I think they you know, keep in mind it's even

821
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:10,320
Speaker 1: though we're forty plus years removed from the hyperinflation of

822
00:45:10,400 --> 00:45:14,120
Speaker 1: the early eighties. It's been my observation, and I've been

823
00:45:14,160 --> 00:45:18,880
Speaker 1: in this business in seventy three that it was just amazing,

824
00:45:19,000 --> 00:45:22,400
Speaker 1: decade after decade what happened to us in the early

825
00:45:22,520 --> 00:45:28,200
Speaker 1: eighties that I lived through as an investor. UM was

826
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:32,920
Speaker 1: still the conscience that kind of kept things under control

827
00:45:33,000 --> 00:45:36,920
Speaker 1: for you know, every cycle. The minute it lifted, it's

828
00:45:36,960 --> 00:45:38,960
Speaker 1: had people said, own inflation is coming back, and they

829
00:45:39,040 --> 00:45:41,520
Speaker 1: got nervous, and then they'd find inflation wasn't coming back,

830
00:45:41,600 --> 00:45:43,960
Speaker 1: and that you went back until we ratchet it all

831
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:47,759
Speaker 1: the way down to pretty much zero UM. And so

832
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 1: now we're at a point that we haven't been at

833
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:54,240
Speaker 1: really in the last forty years where it's it's truly

834
00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 1: breaking out and it's not a fake out, and it's

835
00:45:57,280 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 1: not one of these things where it was, you know,

836
00:46:00,080 --> 00:46:03,759
Speaker 1: a false call that inflation is a risk here. So

837
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:07,520
Speaker 1: they but they still have that conscious that the conscience

838
00:46:07,560 --> 00:46:10,640
Speaker 1: that they do understand that, boy, we don't want to

839
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:13,080
Speaker 1: go back to those early eight days and early eight

840
00:46:13,120 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 1: these days. And you know, we went in the late

841
00:46:16,640 --> 00:46:21,360
Speaker 1: seventies from six or seven percent inflation and it was

842
00:46:21,440 --> 00:46:23,719
Speaker 1: only took two to three years when we were at

843
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:27,680
Speaker 1: twenty percent inflation. So they realized that if they let

844
00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:30,760
Speaker 1: the genie out of the bottle, it's not an easy

845
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:34,239
Speaker 1: game to get it back in. So so I think

846
00:46:34,320 --> 00:46:37,839
Speaker 1: that does have as much as everybody's worried the fence

847
00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:41,080
Speaker 1: bringing too much money and the fence um talking about

848
00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:44,879
Speaker 1: it's still a couple of years before they have to tighten, etcetera. UM.

849
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:47,120
Speaker 1: I think in the back of their mind they know

850
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:50,359
Speaker 1: it's closer than that. Number one and number two. Whether

851
00:46:50,440 --> 00:46:54,000
Speaker 1: they know it or not, they're gonna They're not gonna

852
00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:57,800
Speaker 1: have a lot of tolerance for inflation and pushing you know,

853
00:46:57,880 --> 00:47:00,880
Speaker 1: a lot higher. I think, well, if we see you know,

854
00:47:01,000 --> 00:47:03,319
Speaker 1: the numbers coming in months by month for the next

855
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:07,759
Speaker 1: several um at the levels we've seen recently, they're gonna

856
00:47:07,800 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 1: get nervous. So that's that's first and foremost that they

857
00:47:11,160 --> 00:47:14,919
Speaker 1: will I think step in and tighten. And I think

858
00:47:14,960 --> 00:47:18,040
Speaker 1: Titan is going to be probably more from the standpoint

859
00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:21,600
Speaker 1: of money than interest rates. Everybody, most most of the

860
00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:23,840
Speaker 1: street talks in terms of rates. I look at his

861
00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:27,000
Speaker 1: money is much more important. I think they will drain

862
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:31,239
Speaker 1: the system of as much as a trillion dollars if

863
00:47:31,320 --> 00:47:33,840
Speaker 1: they feel the inflation is breaking out here and not

864
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:38,719
Speaker 1: just transitory. UM. And then you bring in to the

865
00:47:38,800 --> 00:47:42,200
Speaker 1: equation the fact that we had what we had in

866
00:47:42,280 --> 00:47:45,600
Speaker 1: the last fifteen months in terms of a pandemic that

867
00:47:45,760 --> 00:47:49,560
Speaker 1: led to a worldwide shutdown of the economy, and where

868
00:47:49,800 --> 00:47:54,000
Speaker 1: as much as statistically we're seeing recovery. We still have

869
00:47:54,080 --> 00:47:57,359
Speaker 1: a lot of landlords not getting collecting rent. We still

870
00:47:57,440 --> 00:48:01,600
Speaker 1: have a lot of um people working. We still have

871
00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:05,160
Speaker 1: you know, a lot of people who are I haven't

872
00:48:05,239 --> 00:48:08,080
Speaker 1: haven't paid their mortgage in a year. You don't just

873
00:48:08,200 --> 00:48:10,480
Speaker 1: all of a sudden say Okay, the economy are covered.

874
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:12,960
Speaker 1: I'm gonna catch up on those twelve months i didn't pay.

875
00:48:13,480 --> 00:48:16,240
Speaker 1: So you've got a lot of fragility in the system

876
00:48:17,040 --> 00:48:20,320
Speaker 1: there and everywhere else. You know, there's so it's a

877
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:23,560
Speaker 1: funny situation. It's a really bifurcated situation where we have

878
00:48:24,080 --> 00:48:26,000
Speaker 1: the potential for an economy it looks like it's the

879
00:48:26,040 --> 00:48:30,800
Speaker 1: strongest in decades um, but really below the surface is

880
00:48:30,840 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 1: the most gradulate spent in a long long time. So

881
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:38,799
Speaker 1: it means it doesn't have the tolerance for cranking down

882
00:48:39,040 --> 00:48:42,400
Speaker 1: the system, you know, ratching down money or raising interest

883
00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:46,040
Speaker 1: rates that it might have in other cycles. It means

884
00:48:46,120 --> 00:48:50,680
Speaker 1: I think the FED is gonna find that the response

885
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:54,560
Speaker 1: to their tightening with a very short lag it's gonna

886
00:48:54,560 --> 00:48:58,120
Speaker 1: be a lot larger than they anticipated. And I think

887
00:48:58,160 --> 00:49:00,120
Speaker 1: we're gonna and again I talked about the FED, but

888
00:49:00,160 --> 00:49:02,120
Speaker 1: it's really central banks around the world are going to

889
00:49:02,160 --> 00:49:04,560
Speaker 1: be in the same position. I think we're have in

890
00:49:04,640 --> 00:49:06,799
Speaker 1: a situation where the underlined is going to hit us

891
00:49:07,160 --> 00:49:10,600
Speaker 1: so fast, and they're gonna all the policy makers are

892
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:13,200
Speaker 1: gonna be deer and headlights going what do we do?

893
00:49:13,520 --> 00:49:16,000
Speaker 1: You know, they did a good job of responding to

894
00:49:16,120 --> 00:49:20,160
Speaker 1: the March of but this time around, I think they're

895
00:49:20,200 --> 00:49:22,279
Speaker 1: gonna they're gonna be going, what can we do? Now?

896
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:24,960
Speaker 1: We've already printed all that money, We've already done all this,

897
00:49:25,560 --> 00:49:28,480
Speaker 1: you know, fiscal stimulus. We got to be careful. We

898
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:31,640
Speaker 1: can't just do that again. But they're gonna end up

899
00:49:31,719 --> 00:49:34,440
Speaker 1: having to. It's just gonna take them a little time

900
00:49:34,520 --> 00:49:38,560
Speaker 1: to realize that they don't have a choice. By the way,

901
00:49:38,920 --> 00:49:42,320
Speaker 1: I always say, the difference between me and some of

902
00:49:42,440 --> 00:49:44,560
Speaker 1: the guys you know out there that are the you know,

903
00:49:44,800 --> 00:49:46,799
Speaker 1: the guys that think we're on the way down now

904
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:49,480
Speaker 1: this is the big one, um, you know, the Peter

905
00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:52,560
Speaker 1: Shifts of the world. The difference between those guys and

906
00:49:52,680 --> 00:49:56,360
Speaker 1: me is that I do say there's one more recovery cycle.

907
00:49:56,880 --> 00:49:58,839
Speaker 1: And the reason I can say that, and I've been

908
00:49:58,840 --> 00:50:02,840
Speaker 1: saying for a number a year, is in deflation. And

909
00:50:02,920 --> 00:50:05,880
Speaker 1: that's what the bus. The global bus will be a

910
00:50:05,960 --> 00:50:09,480
Speaker 1: global deflationary bus will go from this inflation concern too

911
00:50:09,600 --> 00:50:13,959
Speaker 1: very quickly the first deflationary downturn, I think, and since

912
00:50:14,040 --> 00:50:21,000
Speaker 1: the Great Depression, widespread deflation UM. So in deflation, central

913
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:24,319
Speaker 1: banks have almost an infinite ability to print money. If

914
00:50:24,400 --> 00:50:27,839
Speaker 1: this were a case where we had inflation, their hands

915
00:50:27,880 --> 00:50:30,799
Speaker 1: will be more tied, they know, because more more money

916
00:50:30,880 --> 00:50:33,960
Speaker 1: means more fuel on the fire, more more inflation. But

917
00:50:34,040 --> 00:50:37,120
Speaker 1: if you're in deflation, the leads and lags to when

918
00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:41,520
Speaker 1: that money brings you back to inflation, and a problematic

919
00:50:41,600 --> 00:50:44,520
Speaker 1: inflation is long enough that they're going to be able

920
00:50:44,560 --> 00:50:46,040
Speaker 1: to say, we got to deal with the here and

921
00:50:46,120 --> 00:50:49,120
Speaker 1: now we've got on our hands right now, major bank

922
00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:52,279
Speaker 1: failures around the world, we have, you know, involuntary debt

923
00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:56,160
Speaker 1: liquidation across the globe. Um, we can't worry about inflation

924
00:50:56,239 --> 00:50:59,080
Speaker 1: right now, We've got to worry about deflation. So that's

925
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:03,440
Speaker 1: why that money will then be get one more recovery cycle.

926
00:51:04,239 --> 00:51:06,960
Speaker 1: Where you run into the problem is that one more

927
00:51:07,040 --> 00:51:12,200
Speaker 1: recovery cycle then then gives you hyper inflation, and you

928
00:51:12,239 --> 00:51:16,400
Speaker 1: will have, unlike the nineteen eighties, you have hyper inflation

929
00:51:17,000 --> 00:51:19,719
Speaker 1: with perhaps four tillion dollars of death. And you know

930
00:51:19,840 --> 00:51:22,400
Speaker 1: right now we're over to fifty. By the time we

931
00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:24,440
Speaker 1: get done with this bus, we could be up at

932
00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:29,160
Speaker 1: three hundred. You you can't. I mean, there's no equation

933
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 1: you can come up with to tell me how you

934
00:51:31,200 --> 00:51:34,080
Speaker 1: solve that. It just leads. It leads to a PONDI

935
00:51:34,120 --> 00:51:39,200
Speaker 1: scheme that just collapses. Yeah. Wow, those are big numbers.

936
00:51:39,360 --> 00:51:42,360
Speaker 1: That's a big picture. Um, and I guess with that

937
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:44,040
Speaker 1: we could go ahead and wrap it up. That's ah,

938
00:51:45,920 --> 00:51:48,080
Speaker 1: we're going to something like that. Um, we know they're

939
00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:50,960
Speaker 1: gonna keep printing. And whether they go to they blow

940
00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:52,400
Speaker 1: or they try to pull back and then try to

941
00:51:52,440 --> 00:51:55,759
Speaker 1: step back on the gas again. Um. Unfortunately, there's only

942
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:57,840
Speaker 1: really one outcome of this. It seems like a be leveraging.

943
00:51:57,960 --> 00:52:01,560
Speaker 1: So the difference between in you know, one scenario and

944
00:52:01,600 --> 00:52:03,800
Speaker 1: the other is, you know, a matter of five or

945
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:07,279
Speaker 1: seven years. It's it's not like, you know, one let's

946
00:52:07,440 --> 00:52:09,480
Speaker 1: go merrily along and the other one, who's, oh no,

947
00:52:09,600 --> 00:52:12,000
Speaker 1: we're in trouble. You know there we end up in

948
00:52:12,040 --> 00:52:16,160
Speaker 1: a bad place either way. Yeah, yeah, I would imagine. Um,

949
00:52:16,520 --> 00:52:18,359
Speaker 1: you said you started your career in nineteen seventy three.

950
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:20,919
Speaker 1: So that's just two years after we started this whole

951
00:52:21,320 --> 00:52:23,399
Speaker 1: you know, fiat money system. I mean, whatever you could

952
00:52:23,440 --> 00:52:25,239
Speaker 1: argue I started earlier, but really that's you know, when

953
00:52:25,280 --> 00:52:27,200
Speaker 1: we got up a gold standard, and so look how

954
00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:31,000
Speaker 1: far we've come in fifty years, and so like to

955
00:52:31,080 --> 00:52:32,799
Speaker 1: say that we could even go another five or seven

956
00:52:32,920 --> 00:52:35,080
Speaker 1: seems like way too long. If we've gone this far

957
00:52:35,160 --> 00:52:38,799
Speaker 1: in fifty I mean, imagine where we're going. This is unsustainable.

958
00:52:39,960 --> 00:52:43,839
Speaker 1: That's that's for sure. It's unsustainable, all right, David, Well,

959
00:52:43,880 --> 00:52:46,600
Speaker 1: that was awesome. Um, thanks for giving us that contrary

960
00:52:46,760 --> 00:52:49,000
Speaker 1: view and really kind of helping us understand kind of

961
00:52:49,000 --> 00:52:51,840
Speaker 1: where these markets and asset prices are going. I appreciate that.

962
00:52:52,320 --> 00:52:54,120
Speaker 1: I'm gonna make sure, like I said, everyone followed David

963
00:52:54,160 --> 00:52:56,759
Speaker 1: on on Twitter. I'm gonna link to his profile down below.

964
00:52:57,000 --> 00:52:59,759
Speaker 1: Anything else you want to call attention to, David, Um,

965
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:03,560
Speaker 1: no other than we talked about bonds. Just understand that

966
00:53:03,680 --> 00:53:06,440
Speaker 1: that moved down to say one twenty on the bond market.

967
00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 1: Obviously I don't know exactly where it's going, but if

968
00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:12,640
Speaker 1: I'm pretty right on that, just understand that's not the

969
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:14,680
Speaker 1: end of the move up in rates. I do think

970
00:53:14,760 --> 00:53:18,600
Speaker 1: as the fed Titans later you could see two and

971
00:53:18,600 --> 00:53:21,879
Speaker 1: a half or some ten year before this year is out.

972
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:25,719
Speaker 1: So you know, the move down is just a short

973
00:53:25,840 --> 00:53:29,399
Speaker 1: term move and I think as we tighten rates move

974
00:53:29,480 --> 00:53:32,080
Speaker 1: back up and that's that's what becomes problematic for the

975
00:53:32,239 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 1: stock market, along with the fact that they pull money

976
00:53:35,600 --> 00:53:40,440
Speaker 1: on the system. Yeah, okay, great, well, thanks for that information, David,

977
00:53:40,560 --> 00:53:42,440
Speaker 1: and thanks for your time. As always, it's a pleasure

978
00:53:42,480 --> 00:53:44,440
Speaker 1: talking to you. I love the insights that you bring.

979
00:53:44,960 --> 00:53:47,759
Speaker 1: Um and without we're gonna wrap it up, okay, Mark, Hey,

980
00:53:47,840 --> 00:54:00,680
Speaker 1: thanks for having me. All right. Four