WEBVTT - Instant Reaction: President Biden Withdraws

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 3>You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm

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<v Speaker 3>David Gerro with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news

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<v Speaker 3>this afternoon. President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid, Biden

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<v Speaker 3>saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice

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<v Speaker 3>President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee.

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<v Speaker 4>Joining us now Bloomberg contributor Genie sheen Zano of Iona University. Genie,

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<v Speaker 4>with this announcement, are the Purple States any less purple?

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<v Speaker 5>I think they.

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<v Speaker 6>Are more up for grabs for the Democrats.

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<v Speaker 5>I think one of the big deciding factors we are

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<v Speaker 5>hearing for President Biden was the fact that you saw

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<v Speaker 5>states that should be reliably blue or somewhat rely on

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<v Speaker 5>blee blue leg Minnesota, New Hampshire, You're talking about my

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<v Speaker 5>home state of New York, New Jersey, that those were

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<v Speaker 5>creeping into the red or as you said, the purple.

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<v Speaker 5>And that is a big problem. And I think that's

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<v Speaker 5>where he saw the writing on the wall. If Donald

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<v Speaker 5>Trump expanded that battleground very very difficult for Joe Biden

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<v Speaker 5>to win, hence his decision today.

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<v Speaker 4>David Gern, Joe Matthew jump in here with Professor z Enough.

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<v Speaker 3>Let me just ask you sort of what you see

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<v Speaker 3>playing out here in the next twenty four hours. So,

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<v Speaker 3>as I say, we had this very quick endorsement from

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<v Speaker 3>the president, as Joe and Tom were talking about just

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<v Speaker 3>a few minutes ago. The impulse here is to be

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<v Speaker 3>to get the vice president on the road. She has

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<v Speaker 3>been on the road, has been holding events and rallies.

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<v Speaker 3>How do you see this week beginning? How do you

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<v Speaker 3>see a gaining steam as it continues?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean Kamala Harris two million dollars in Cape

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<v Speaker 5>Cod yesterday. I think the thinking among many Democrats can't

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<v Speaker 5>speak for all of them, is that this is a

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<v Speaker 5>quick handover. We saw the endorsement. It is a Joe Biden.

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<v Speaker 5>Kamala has campaign so that she is able to take

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<v Speaker 5>over the campaign, the apparatus, the fundraising, which is tremendous

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<v Speaker 5>and move forward. I think the big question hanging over

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<v Speaker 5>everybody's head is is there going to be a contest?

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<v Speaker 5>I am skeptical that we will see a contest at

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<v Speaker 5>this point, particularly given how quickly President Biden endorsed her,

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<v Speaker 5>but it is still a possibility. The other thing is,

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<v Speaker 5>and the lawyers know this better than I do, is

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<v Speaker 5>that there may be some contest in terms of can

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<v Speaker 5>she take over this campaign apparatus. I'm describing it as

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<v Speaker 5>a Biden Harris campaign. It is, but there may be

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<v Speaker 5>legal challenges to that. If there's not, she'll take that over,

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<v Speaker 5>and then I think it's harder for us to see

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<v Speaker 5>a contest. And then the big question is going to

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<v Speaker 5>be what do the delegates do, of course, and who

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<v Speaker 5>does she choose as her vice presidential running mate?

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<v Speaker 4>At this point, Ge, now I want to go to

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<v Speaker 4>your wheelhouse, which is the shades of the Democratic Party

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<v Speaker 4>in nineteen fifty two. You know what, there were shades

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<v Speaker 4>of a Democratic Party. They were all the same. The

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<v Speaker 4>difference from Stevenson the SSE's key fower, come on, it

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<v Speaker 4>was next to nothing. It was just geographic. It was regional.

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<v Speaker 4>Somebody had a pet project in that. We have huge

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<v Speaker 4>polarity in the Democratic Party right now. Is the vice

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<v Speaker 4>president a progressive?

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<v Speaker 5>I am not sure that she will choose in that way.

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<v Speaker 5>You know, the reality is as a political scientist that

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<v Speaker 5>vice presidential choices in all of our research seldom make

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<v Speaker 5>any difference whatsoever. That said, this is an astounding situation,

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<v Speaker 5>unprecedented in the modern era, so it likely could. And

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<v Speaker 5>I think for Kamala Harris as she thinks about her choices,

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<v Speaker 5>you know, we are hearing about the tremendous number of

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<v Speaker 5>really attractive young Democratic governors across the country, from Shapiro

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<v Speaker 5>to Indy Bashir to down in North Carolina to J. D.

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<v Speaker 5>Pritzker in Illinois. It's a large, large number. I'm excluding

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<v Speaker 5>Newsome only because he has the same problem Marco Rubio

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<v Speaker 5>did for Trump in her home state. But that said,

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<v Speaker 5>there's also been a lot of talk about somebody like

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<v Speaker 5>Senator Kelly out in Arizona. If I had to guess,

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<v Speaker 5>I think she is going to choose a geographic match

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<v Speaker 5>rather and somebody who she personally can work with, obviously,

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<v Speaker 5>and who she thinks could be president if something should

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<v Speaker 5>happen to her, as opposed to think about the ideological

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<v Speaker 5>split in the Democratic Party. And the only reason I

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<v Speaker 5>say that is because you're right, there is that difference

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<v Speaker 5>in the party, but one thing that unites all Democrats,

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<v Speaker 5>right now is beating Donald Trump. That's at the forefront

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<v Speaker 5>of all of their minds. Okay, and that's why I

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<v Speaker 5>think she doesn't go progressive.

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<v Speaker 4>Beautifully, said David Gerra. Terry Ames has said this and

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<v Speaker 4>many others. Well, we're desperate for polls like we've never

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<v Speaker 4>been in our modern political history, Bason. Your experience, David Gurra,

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<v Speaker 4>when does our Audi medians get polls that begin to

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<v Speaker 4>color the strength that the vice president has or the

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<v Speaker 4>strength other candidates have.

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<v Speaker 3>It'll be some days until we get enough of them

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<v Speaker 3>that we can have some confidence in them. But we

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<v Speaker 3>know from our reporting and from others reporting that the

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<v Speaker 3>Democratic Party was polling the viability of Kamala Harris as

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<v Speaker 3>a presidential nominee in the days leading up to this.

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<v Speaker 3>We know that in this vacuum that the president was

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<v Speaker 3>in trying to figure this out, this was one of

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<v Speaker 3>his concerns and the party's concerns how this would work.

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<v Speaker 3>And so we have had some polling thus far that

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<v Speaker 3>illustrates what that matchup might be like with Donald Trump,

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<v Speaker 3>and we've seen her hold her own in those polls.

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<v Speaker 3>But to answer your question more thoroughly, Tom, I think

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<v Speaker 3>until we get a more robust set of pulling on

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<v Speaker 3>this is going to take a few days until we

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<v Speaker 3>figure that out. And I'm just going to note here

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<v Speaker 3>the kind of endorsements and comments on this continue to roll,

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<v Speaker 3>and we have a comment now from President Clinton former

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<v Speaker 3>Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. They're issuing a joint statement

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<v Speaker 3>here about Kamala Harris. It begins with a preamble of

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<v Speaker 3>them thanking Joe Biden for the service that he's had

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<v Speaker 3>to the country in this role, most recently but throughout

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<v Speaker 3>his long career. Then they say, we are honor to

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<v Speaker 3>join the president in endorsing Vice President Harris, and we'll

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<v Speaker 3>do whatever we can to support her. GENI, I'm curious

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<v Speaker 3>how well Americans know Kamala Harris. You mentioned how insignificant

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<v Speaker 3>the role of the vice president might be historically, how

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<v Speaker 3>little a difference that might make. But she has name

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<v Speaker 3>recognition and that's something here. But how much do most

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<v Speaker 3>people know about her? And her record is Attorney general

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<v Speaker 3>in California and indeeds are of what makes her tick?

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<v Speaker 3>What are the policy agenda items that are most important

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<v Speaker 3>to her?

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<v Speaker 7>You know?

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<v Speaker 5>I think on the plus side, Kamala Harris has really

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<v Speaker 5>done a very strong job of going out and talking

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<v Speaker 5>about women's health, pushing back on the Dobbs decision. They're

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<v Speaker 5>right for people. I shouldn't just say women to do

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<v Speaker 5>what they want with their own bodies, and that has

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<v Speaker 5>been something I think many Americans now associate with her.

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<v Speaker 5>That said, to your point, While she did run in

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<v Speaker 5>twenty twenty, she was a you know, one term senator

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<v Speaker 5>from California, previously a state attorney general, so well known

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<v Speaker 5>in that state. Not quite as much across the country, though,

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<v Speaker 5>as the first African American woman and Indian American woman

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<v Speaker 5>to achieve the vice presidency, she did get a lot

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<v Speaker 5>of coverage in the announcement of her choice. On the downside,

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<v Speaker 5>she was flagged with the border issue for a long

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<v Speaker 5>time and that has really drawn down people's concerns about

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<v Speaker 5>her ability to do this job. So there's some mixed reaction,

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<v Speaker 5>but she is going to have to go out and

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<v Speaker 5>sort of come out from Joe Biden's shadow, if you will.

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<v Speaker 5>One thing I would note, and I think to her credit,

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<v Speaker 5>throughout all of these last three weeks, she has been

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<v Speaker 5>on the campaign trail pushing hard for Joe Biden, and

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<v Speaker 5>her people were very clear she is not going to

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<v Speaker 5>get involved in this race to see who should feed him,

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<v Speaker 5>and so that is on the plus side for her.

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<v Speaker 4>I look at where we are and folks who want

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<v Speaker 4>to draw in here not only the expected statements by worthies,

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<v Speaker 4>by Democrats, by Republicans, but across all and take advantage

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<v Speaker 4>of the social media at this historic moment. Tim albert

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<v Speaker 4>is at the Atlantic and he's really done studies, careful

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<v Speaker 4>studies of evangelical America, just among other things. And Geenie,

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<v Speaker 4>here's where Tim Alberta comes out really right now. Really

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<v Speaker 4>cannot overstate how problematic this is for Trump's operation. Why

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<v Speaker 4>is that what radically change changes for the campaign apparatus

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<v Speaker 4>of the former president on this Sunday afternoon.

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<v Speaker 5>And Tim who just wrote a beautiful piece on Trump's

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<v Speaker 5>two campaign managers, and that's what I think he is

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<v Speaker 5>alluding to. It was very clear and that really well

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<v Speaker 5>done piece about Chris Lasavitas and Susie Wilds that their

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<v Speaker 5>entire campaign wh was shaped by going against Joe Biden

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<v Speaker 5>to have this switch at the last minute after their convention,

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<v Speaker 5>which is the most coverage argued, we will believe Donald

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<v Speaker 5>Trump is going to get until if there is another

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<v Speaker 5>debate with a new candidate, they have to shift their

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<v Speaker 5>entire focus. So the uncertainty we're talking about for the

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<v Speaker 5>Democrats is also true on the Republican side. And that's

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<v Speaker 5>what I think he's pouting to. They've got to quickly

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<v Speaker 5>shift their focus now to Carris or somebody else, because

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<v Speaker 5>she is not the nominee.

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<v Speaker 4>Jenny, thank you so much. Through the afternoon, Genie, Professor

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<v Speaker 4>Zana will be with us. She's at Iona University, Jennie,

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<v Speaker 4>She and Zano. A number of others are looking at this,

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<v Speaker 4>and one of them is the difference between Ger and

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<v Speaker 4>I were lazy. You know, we do things, We do

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<v Speaker 4>the big take, we do podcasts, we stroll in, we

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<v Speaker 4>go to lunch. Laura Davidson never goes to lunch. She

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<v Speaker 4>is the journalist in Washington covering these tensions, and we're

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<v Speaker 4>thrilled that she could join us. Now, Laura, I want

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<v Speaker 4>you to look forward. There are editors across all of

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<v Speaker 4>our major newspapers, all of our magazines saying I need

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<v Speaker 4>something Tuesday or wind Day morning. What is the distinction,

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<v Speaker 4>Laura Davidson, that you would write about for Tuesday or

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<v Speaker 4>Wednesday morning?

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<v Speaker 7>So the next steps are not clear.

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<v Speaker 8>Biden has endorsed Harris, and presumably that means many of

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<v Speaker 8>his delegates will back Harris. But the big unknown is

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<v Speaker 8>will someone else jump into the race. Democratic rules don't

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<v Speaker 8>Party rules don't require that Biden's delegates back Harris. So,

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<v Speaker 8>you know, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Michigan governed Gretchen Whitmer,

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<v Speaker 8>they want to jump in the race. Suddenly, we could

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<v Speaker 8>have a contested convention on our hands. There's a couple,

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<v Speaker 8>you know, things that are that are totally uncertain here.

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<v Speaker 8>You know, the biggest question is just, you know, where

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<v Speaker 8>do those camps start to fall in line. We're already

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<v Speaker 8>seeing a lot of lawmakers come out and endorsing Kamala Harris.

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<v Speaker 7>She also has an advantage because she can inherit the

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<v Speaker 7>money and the Biden campaign. A new candidate would not

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<v Speaker 7>be able to inherit that money. It would have to

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<v Speaker 7>start from scratch.

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<v Speaker 8>The other thing that's also on everyone's mind too, is

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<v Speaker 8>from a from a global perspective, you know, what does

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<v Speaker 8>this mean for foreign leaders and particularly for adversaries. You know,

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<v Speaker 8>is there some some sort of new, fresh national security

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<v Speaker 8>threat that could be injected into the atmosphere, you know,

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<v Speaker 8>with sort of this period of uncertainty around who might

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<v Speaker 8>be in charge of the Democratic Party going.

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<v Speaker 3>Forward, Laura, what is the way that we've seen Kamala

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<v Speaker 3>Harris being used over these last couple of weeks tell

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<v Speaker 3>you about the path forward? She has been out campaigning. Obviously,

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<v Speaker 3>she's been rather quiet on this issue, but she held

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<v Speaker 3>a very important call with donors on Friday of this week,

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<v Speaker 3>trying to assuage many of their concerns about the prospects

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<v Speaker 3>of this happening as Joe Biden was figuring all of

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<v Speaker 3>this out. Any insight that you can glean just from

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<v Speaker 3>the way that she has been acting or the Democratic

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<v Speaker 3>Party in the campaign have been using her in recent

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<v Speaker 3>days that might foretell what she's going to be like,

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<v Speaker 3>how she's going to approach the campaign going forward.

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<v Speaker 9>You know.

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<v Speaker 8>In addition to that call of donors, we've also seen

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<v Speaker 8>her just more front and center in advertising and you know,

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<v Speaker 8>fundraising appeals that have gone out.

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<v Speaker 7>Via email on social ads.

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<v Speaker 8>She's also been hitting the campaign trail very hard, so

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<v Speaker 8>you can kind of see there was a you know,

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<v Speaker 8>a very quiet ramp up, you know, in case this,

0:11:53.960 --> 0:11:56.680
<v Speaker 8>you know, was the situation that we now find ourselves in.

0:11:57.200 --> 0:11:59.480
<v Speaker 8>What's different about her is she has been very different

0:11:59.520 --> 0:12:02.000
<v Speaker 8>on the campaign trail than Biden. Biden has really focused

0:12:02.000 --> 0:12:05.040
<v Speaker 8>on those blue wall states Michigan and Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.

0:12:05.360 --> 0:12:07.319
<v Speaker 7>She has more focused on some of the southern.

0:12:07.040 --> 0:12:10.120
<v Speaker 8>States, you know, Arizona, Nevada, and the messages that they

0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:12.240
<v Speaker 8>carry are very different. Biden was focused on, you know,

0:12:12.320 --> 0:12:15.480
<v Speaker 8>the economy and jobs on reunion workers. Harris has been

0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:17.640
<v Speaker 8>much more about abortion, that being an issue that she's

0:12:17.720 --> 0:12:20.520
<v Speaker 8>very comfortable talking with and that Biden isn't.

0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:23.800
<v Speaker 7>So there will be sort of a reformulation of you.

0:12:23.720 --> 0:12:26.680
<v Speaker 8>Know how uh, you know, of how Harris tries to

0:12:26.679 --> 0:12:28.840
<v Speaker 8>position herself if she is in fact the nominee and

0:12:28.880 --> 0:12:30.480
<v Speaker 8>of course, you know, if you know all of the

0:12:30.480 --> 0:12:32.840
<v Speaker 8>people who might want to be her running mate, you

0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:34.560
<v Speaker 8>know that's going to be something that party leaders and

0:12:34.559 --> 0:12:36.480
<v Speaker 8>in you delegates are going to be looking at what

0:12:36.559 --> 0:12:37.720
<v Speaker 8>balances her out.

0:12:38.120 --> 0:12:40.480
<v Speaker 7>You know, do you go to someone like Josh Shapiro as.

0:12:40.280 --> 0:12:43.200
<v Speaker 8>A governor of Pennsylvania, they might appeal to to more

0:12:43.240 --> 0:12:44.479
<v Speaker 8>of those blue wall states.

0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:47.040
<v Speaker 7>All of this, you know, parlor parlor talks.

0:12:48.240 --> 0:12:51.160
<v Speaker 8>You know, what's happened now and what's happening on the old.

0:12:51.120 --> 0:12:54.320
<v Speaker 4>Lord Davison, Thank you so much for being saustine as

0:12:54.880 --> 0:12:57.240
<v Speaker 4>I hope you wake you up tomorrow morning at seven am.

0:12:57.360 --> 0:13:00.199
<v Speaker 3>You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm

0:13:00.280 --> 0:13:03.360
<v Speaker 3>David Gurrow with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Plenty ahead,

0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:04.960
<v Speaker 3>This is Bloombak.

0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:17.480
<v Speaker 2>Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from

0:13:17.520 --> 0:13:18.480
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Radio.

0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:21.600
<v Speaker 3>You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm

0:13:21.640 --> 0:13:24.680
<v Speaker 3>David Gerrow with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news

0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:28.640
<v Speaker 3>this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid, Biden

0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:31.480
<v Speaker 3>saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice

0:13:31.480 --> 0:13:35.199
<v Speaker 3>President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee.

0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:38.960
<v Speaker 4>What we're looking for is conversation with people with experience

0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:42.760
<v Speaker 4>and maybe without an angle. And that is absolute definition

0:13:43.280 --> 0:13:47.800
<v Speaker 4>of Wendy Benjamin to say she's deputy Managing editor, it's

0:13:47.800 --> 0:13:50.280
<v Speaker 4>a big long title. She wouldn't come to Bloomberg unless

0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:53.440
<v Speaker 4>it was a big long title. But she was definitive

0:13:53.840 --> 0:13:59.880
<v Speaker 4>at the Associated Press with McClatchy and USA Today is well,

0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:06.359
<v Speaker 4>it's a new media today. You lived the old media.

0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:09.679
<v Speaker 4>LBJ didn't have to put up with this. Truman didn't

0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:12.839
<v Speaker 4>have to put up with this. Let's look forward. How

0:14:12.880 --> 0:14:17.079
<v Speaker 4>do these people position themselves given modern media?

0:14:18.880 --> 0:14:21.520
<v Speaker 1>Well, hi Tom, and thank you for always bringing up

0:14:21.560 --> 0:14:22.040
<v Speaker 1>how long.

0:14:21.920 --> 0:14:22.360
<v Speaker 6>I've been in.

0:14:25.000 --> 0:14:25.560
<v Speaker 4>Trying to do it.

0:14:26.920 --> 0:14:30.960
<v Speaker 1>It's all about the history today, But I will tell

0:14:31.000 --> 0:14:33.680
<v Speaker 1>you it is. It is a tricky rott, a hope

0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:37.040
<v Speaker 1>for the other Democrats who might who might join the

0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:41.600
<v Speaker 1>race this Today they are all over ex posting how

0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:44.120
<v Speaker 1>grateful they are to the president, without a single word

0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:48.520
<v Speaker 1>about themselves. I think they are all eagerly watching the

0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:52.520
<v Speaker 1>process of what will happen next, whether Kamala Harris does

0:14:52.560 --> 0:14:57.160
<v Speaker 1>become the nominee by fate or by or there will

0:14:57.200 --> 0:15:01.480
<v Speaker 1>be this open process to to choose another nominee, at

0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:05.480
<v Speaker 1>which point these people will definitely start changing their posts

0:15:05.520 --> 0:15:08.000
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter to be more forward looking. But today is

0:15:08.040 --> 0:15:11.040
<v Speaker 1>sort of one of those days where you just focus

0:15:11.120 --> 0:15:14.960
<v Speaker 1>on Biden and whether he did, and don't worry about

0:15:15.000 --> 0:15:17.760
<v Speaker 1>your ambitions for at least publicly for a few.

0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:21.160
<v Speaker 3>Minutes, Wendy Benjamins, and we'll marinate in that for you know,

0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:24.000
<v Speaker 3>twenty four hours, whatever minutes.

0:15:24.160 --> 0:15:27.000
<v Speaker 4>So she when she first came to Washington, she was

0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:30.720
<v Speaker 4>in the octagon bar Willard. Yes, it was the same thing.

0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:32.880
<v Speaker 4>Everything was, you know, we'll think about for a day

0:15:32.960 --> 0:15:35.440
<v Speaker 4>or two, but it was a few minutes. Wendy.

0:15:36.480 --> 0:15:38.720
<v Speaker 3>Nice to speak with you. And I'm curious sort of

0:15:38.840 --> 0:15:41.120
<v Speaker 3>how long it takes for the contours of this campaign

0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:43.200
<v Speaker 3>to change. I was talking with some senior Democrats who

0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:46.800
<v Speaker 3>said their major frustration has been Donald Trump has been

0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:49.600
<v Speaker 3>out campaigning. He's been lying as they saw it, He's

0:15:49.600 --> 0:15:52.440
<v Speaker 3>been lying as we've we've reported. They need a Democrat

0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:55.040
<v Speaker 3>who can push back on that and debate him formally

0:15:55.360 --> 0:15:57.640
<v Speaker 3>in the context of the campaign. They hope on a

0:15:57.640 --> 0:16:00.600
<v Speaker 3>debate stage as well. I'm sure that they see Kamala

0:16:00.600 --> 0:16:03.040
<v Speaker 3>Harris is somebody very capable of doing that. How long

0:16:03.120 --> 0:16:05.800
<v Speaker 3>until we see the contours and the sort of flavor

0:16:05.840 --> 0:16:07.920
<v Speaker 3>and character of this campaign start to change. I guess

0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:09.160
<v Speaker 3>what I'm asking is how long are we going to

0:16:09.160 --> 0:16:11.240
<v Speaker 3>merit it on this the praise for Joe Biden before

0:16:11.280 --> 0:16:13.680
<v Speaker 3>we move on to what is a reset of this

0:16:13.760 --> 0:16:14.680
<v Speaker 3>Democratic campaign?

0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:18.760
<v Speaker 1>Seriously, David, I would start an egg timer right now.

0:16:19.520 --> 0:16:21.440
<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, as we all come back to

0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:26.080
<v Speaker 1>our desk in the office tomorrow, this will already start changing.

0:16:26.160 --> 0:16:28.800
<v Speaker 1>There is no time left. There is no time to

0:16:29.520 --> 0:16:31.840
<v Speaker 1>you know, spend a lot of time thinking about how

0:16:31.960 --> 0:16:34.400
<v Speaker 1>great if you believe that that Joe Biden was, and

0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:37.800
<v Speaker 1>how to move forward. There is only time to get

0:16:37.800 --> 0:16:41.800
<v Speaker 1>this done. The Democratic Convention is in less than a

0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:46.200
<v Speaker 1>month and they have to have a nominee. They also

0:16:46.280 --> 0:16:49.920
<v Speaker 1>were going to virtually nominate Joe Biden's When I say

0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:53.600
<v Speaker 1>virtually mean by phone because the ballot access laws, the

0:16:53.640 --> 0:16:57.040
<v Speaker 1>ballots will be printed in Ohio before the Democratic Convention.

0:16:57.440 --> 0:17:00.160
<v Speaker 1>Ohio a major state that you you know, a lot

0:17:00.160 --> 0:17:02.520
<v Speaker 1>of electoral votes that you have to be on the

0:17:02.600 --> 0:17:06.600
<v Speaker 1>ballot for. So I think there will be tomorrow morning.

0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:08.760
<v Speaker 1>I mean Jamie Harris and the d n C chair

0:17:08.760 --> 0:17:11.520
<v Speaker 1>has already put out a safe in saying we're going

0:17:11.560 --> 0:17:14.320
<v Speaker 1>to start the process now figuring out how to do this.

0:17:14.640 --> 0:17:20.480
<v Speaker 1>Remember this is unprecedented, LBJ who I was a child when.

0:17:20.320 --> 0:17:21.600
<v Speaker 10>He did you hear that?

0:17:21.640 --> 0:17:29.879
<v Speaker 4>Tom Yes, Remember he dropped out in March.

0:17:30.000 --> 0:17:33.719
<v Speaker 1>There was still plenty of time to, you know, to

0:17:33.880 --> 0:17:36.600
<v Speaker 1>have primaries with other candidates. I think Iowa and New

0:17:36.600 --> 0:17:38.840
<v Speaker 1>Hampshire were the only states who had voted by them.

0:17:39.240 --> 0:17:42.440
<v Speaker 1>So you know, this is we're just not in that situation.

0:17:42.520 --> 0:17:44.360
<v Speaker 1>We have to have to get to work right away.

0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:45.760
<v Speaker 4>I want to go to the heart of the matter,

0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:48.240
<v Speaker 4>to the both you and this is something I've quoted,

0:17:48.240 --> 0:17:49.919
<v Speaker 4>but I rarely put up the numbers. I'm not going

0:17:49.960 --> 0:17:52.320
<v Speaker 4>to give you the digits. It's just too much to

0:17:52.400 --> 0:17:58.040
<v Speaker 4>contemplate right now. President Trump garnered seventy four million votes

0:17:58.320 --> 0:18:02.040
<v Speaker 4>the last time around the time before that, when he won,

0:18:02.560 --> 0:18:06.800
<v Speaker 4>he garnered sixty five million votes. Basically, he garnered eight

0:18:07.200 --> 0:18:12.199
<v Speaker 4>million votes losing in twenty twenty. David, let me go

0:18:12.240 --> 0:18:16.200
<v Speaker 4>to you first in Pennsylvania. Who has to show up

0:18:16.320 --> 0:18:21.240
<v Speaker 4>now for the Democratic nominee who was not going to

0:18:21.280 --> 0:18:24.160
<v Speaker 4>show up on Saturday for President Biden.

0:18:24.520 --> 0:18:27.840
<v Speaker 3>Well, Pennsylvania's a particularly interesting question. I mean, they need

0:18:27.880 --> 0:18:29.480
<v Speaker 3>everybody to show up, obviously, and you're going to hear

0:18:29.480 --> 0:18:31.840
<v Speaker 3>that in the coming days and weeks. But you know,

0:18:31.840 --> 0:18:34.600
<v Speaker 3>they're going to be appealing to people who might have

0:18:34.680 --> 0:18:37.200
<v Speaker 3>felt disillusioned by the way all of this was unfolding,

0:18:37.760 --> 0:18:40.080
<v Speaker 3>might have felt like, you know, looking at a contrast

0:18:40.080 --> 0:18:41.960
<v Speaker 3>there that we saw in the debate station Atlanta was

0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:44.720
<v Speaker 3>dispeariting them. Made them feel like the Democrats didn't have

0:18:44.760 --> 0:18:49.040
<v Speaker 3>a viable alternative to Republican nominee. We're going to see

0:18:49.400 --> 0:18:52.680
<v Speaker 3>a big ground game trying to get everybody to the polls. Tom,

0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:54.280
<v Speaker 3>But you know it's funny. We'll talk to Joe Matthew

0:18:54.280 --> 0:18:55.919
<v Speaker 3>in a few moments. Here is somebody that he mentioned

0:18:55.920 --> 0:18:59.680
<v Speaker 3>on the heels of that Republican National Convention is Roy Cooper,

0:18:59.680 --> 0:19:01.960
<v Speaker 3>the gup of my home state of North Carolinas, somebody

0:19:01.960 --> 0:19:03.760
<v Speaker 3>who's seen as maybe somebody who might be in the

0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:06.280
<v Speaker 3>fold here as well. Picking up on what you're saying

0:19:06.440 --> 0:19:08.679
<v Speaker 3>what Wendy said as well, I think geography matters a

0:19:08.680 --> 0:19:10.000
<v Speaker 3>ton of here, And Wendy, I'd love for you to

0:19:10.000 --> 0:19:11.840
<v Speaker 3>come in and just give me your read on that.

0:19:11.840 --> 0:19:14.320
<v Speaker 3>There's Pennsylvania, there's North Carolina. What are the other estates

0:19:14.400 --> 0:19:16.080
<v Speaker 3>or geographies in this country that are going to be

0:19:16.119 --> 0:19:18.720
<v Speaker 3>of just paramount importance here to Democrats going forward.

0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:22.200
<v Speaker 1>Well, the first one that leads to mind, David is Michigan,

0:19:22.280 --> 0:19:27.680
<v Speaker 1>where Gretchen Whitmer, a very popular Democrat, is governor, two

0:19:27.760 --> 0:19:31.119
<v Speaker 1>term governor, very popular. There's no question she is going

0:19:31.160 --> 0:19:34.359
<v Speaker 1>to run for president someday. I don't think and so

0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:38.240
<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, if they're looking for alternatives beyond Kamala,

0:19:38.280 --> 0:19:40.920
<v Speaker 1>Harris and Gretchen Whitmer becomes a big deal. So is

0:19:41.000 --> 0:19:46.280
<v Speaker 1>Joshapiro in Pennsylvania. You know North Carolina. Yeah, North Carolina

0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:48.200
<v Speaker 1>is one of those states that kind of goes back

0:19:48.240 --> 0:19:51.200
<v Speaker 1>and forth. It tends to be conservative. I don't know

0:19:51.480 --> 0:19:54.239
<v Speaker 1>how it might be good to bring in Hammer and

0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:56.680
<v Speaker 1>Andy Basheer of Kentucky or someone like that too.

0:19:56.960 --> 0:19:59.920
<v Speaker 4>Wendy, I had a crossow thrown at me my head

0:20:00.040 --> 0:20:02.760
<v Speaker 4>this morning at breakfast, and I'm going to bring it

0:20:02.880 --> 0:20:07.919
<v Speaker 4>up with you because with no with great respect, Wendy,

0:20:07.960 --> 0:20:10.960
<v Speaker 4>you're the one to answer this question. Now. You just

0:20:11.119 --> 0:20:15.760
<v Speaker 4>mentioned Harris Whitmer is a potential ticket. Is there any

0:20:15.840 --> 0:20:19.399
<v Speaker 4>evidence across the United States of America day today that

0:20:19.480 --> 0:20:24.679
<v Speaker 4>we can elect Anglo Miracle or Teresa May of the

0:20:24.800 --> 0:20:27.800
<v Speaker 4>United Kingdom? Is there any real evidence America is ready

0:20:27.840 --> 0:20:29.480
<v Speaker 4>to elect a woman?

0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:35.320
<v Speaker 1>That's you know, I'm sighing because that's a very difficult question.

0:20:35.720 --> 0:20:39.880
<v Speaker 1>There's certainly no practical reason we shouldn't see we're one

0:20:39.920 --> 0:20:43.080
<v Speaker 1>of the last major countries on Earth not to have

0:20:43.119 --> 0:20:48.000
<v Speaker 1>a female head of state. You know, I certainly think

0:20:48.080 --> 0:20:51.480
<v Speaker 1>it's time for that. And I can't think of a

0:20:51.520 --> 0:20:54.760
<v Speaker 1>reason why we wouldn't elect a woman. Maybe a double

0:20:54.880 --> 0:20:59.480
<v Speaker 1>female ticket might be a little much for America. Crazy

0:20:59.480 --> 0:21:02.040
<v Speaker 1>as that said, since we've elected so many double mail

0:21:02.119 --> 0:21:06.160
<v Speaker 1>tickets in our history. But you know, but I do

0:21:06.240 --> 0:21:08.959
<v Speaker 1>think if the Democrats all right, Mark, it would be

0:21:09.000 --> 0:21:12.960
<v Speaker 1>more like a Harris Super Harris Asher, Harris Shapiro.

0:21:13.520 --> 0:21:15.919
<v Speaker 3>Wanty Benjaminson not I have thrown a virtual croissant at

0:21:15.920 --> 0:21:17.600
<v Speaker 3>you from DC, but she did.

0:21:18.680 --> 0:21:22.080
<v Speaker 4>She said, that's what my expense account has is virtual croissants.

0:21:22.200 --> 0:21:25.640
<v Speaker 4>What I am in Washington, d C. Saying it will

0:21:25.680 --> 0:21:28.320
<v Speaker 4>be a long night for your leading our coverage in Washington.

0:21:29.000 --> 0:21:31.480
<v Speaker 4>Wendy Benjamin, she is the queen of print. Thank you

0:21:31.600 --> 0:21:34.119
<v Speaker 4>so much, Wendy for joining us today. We welcome all

0:21:34.119 --> 0:21:38.040
<v Speaker 4>of you across Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio on YouTube. We're

0:21:38.040 --> 0:21:40.080
<v Speaker 4>making light of it on a Sunday afternoon, but it

0:21:40.160 --> 0:21:43.440
<v Speaker 4>is the most serious point for the nation. It is

0:21:43.480 --> 0:21:48.119
<v Speaker 4>a democratic party, without question, in chaos, the transition from

0:21:48.200 --> 0:21:51.800
<v Speaker 4>an eighty one year old president, he endorses his vice president.

0:21:51.920 --> 0:21:54.399
<v Speaker 4>David's going to cover that in a moment, and some

0:21:54.480 --> 0:21:56.399
<v Speaker 4>of the news flow here we welcome all to you,

0:21:56.480 --> 0:22:00.480
<v Speaker 4>David Gerra and Tom Keen in Washington. Joe you to

0:22:00.480 --> 0:22:03.159
<v Speaker 4>partake here in a moment, and Kaylen Lines is getting

0:22:03.200 --> 0:22:07.000
<v Speaker 4>ready again for the television broadcast this evening. We hope

0:22:07.040 --> 0:22:10.760
<v Speaker 4>to have her on as our schedule allows. Many other

0:22:10.800 --> 0:22:13.760
<v Speaker 4>good people with conversation is well. Thank you for the

0:22:13.800 --> 0:22:17.800
<v Speaker 4>comments out on Twitter, on YouTube and live chat as well.

0:22:18.320 --> 0:22:20.879
<v Speaker 4>David Gera, it was a two step process. The shock,

0:22:21.240 --> 0:22:23.600
<v Speaker 4>which I did not expect on a Sunday afternoon. I

0:22:23.680 --> 0:22:27.240
<v Speaker 4>kept waiting for an LBJ Oval Office moment didn't happen,

0:22:27.920 --> 0:22:30.720
<v Speaker 4>and then the endorsement of the Vice president.

0:22:31.240 --> 0:22:33.800
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, it was a very funny interregnum. So let's start

0:22:33.840 --> 0:22:35.840
<v Speaker 3>with the announcement itself. As you say, you know, I

0:22:35.920 --> 0:22:37.439
<v Speaker 3>was waiting over the course of the weekend for that

0:22:37.440 --> 0:22:39.159
<v Speaker 3>announcement to come out from the White House. You know,

0:22:39.200 --> 0:22:41.160
<v Speaker 3>perhaps there'll be an Oval office speech. As you say,

0:22:41.200 --> 0:22:42.920
<v Speaker 3>I think. I think we might still get that later

0:22:42.960 --> 0:22:45.399
<v Speaker 3>this week. In his letter to the American people, the

0:22:45.400 --> 0:22:48.240
<v Speaker 3>President saying that in the coming days he'll say more

0:22:48.280 --> 0:22:50.159
<v Speaker 3>about his decision to do this. I think yet we

0:22:50.160 --> 0:22:52.440
<v Speaker 3>will get that kind of formal moment for him to

0:22:52.480 --> 0:22:54.560
<v Speaker 3>spell all of this out the way that he wants to.

0:22:55.280 --> 0:22:57.480
<v Speaker 3>But reading that letter one page in length, just a

0:22:57.480 --> 0:23:00.600
<v Speaker 3>few paragraphs, there was no mention of Kamala Harra Joe

0:23:00.600 --> 0:23:03.800
<v Speaker 3>Biden's vice president. Then a few minutes past, a few

0:23:03.840 --> 0:23:06.720
<v Speaker 3>more minutes passed and we got his full throat endorsement

0:23:06.800 --> 0:23:09.879
<v Speaker 3>yes via X of Kamala Harris. He's going to support

0:23:09.920 --> 0:23:13.159
<v Speaker 3>her in the campaign for president. Now we're beginning to

0:23:13.160 --> 0:23:17.159
<v Speaker 3>piece together a how many Democrats come on board with that.

0:23:17.359 --> 0:23:19.000
<v Speaker 3>It seems like in the last hour and a half

0:23:19.080 --> 0:23:22.159
<v Speaker 3>or so many of them have Many prominent Democrats, gray beards,

0:23:22.200 --> 0:23:25.320
<v Speaker 3>younger members of Congress, those who have been rather quiet

0:23:25.359 --> 0:23:27.040
<v Speaker 3>during the course of this as they've waited for this

0:23:27.080 --> 0:23:29.280
<v Speaker 3>to get hammered out by the President who has been

0:23:29.600 --> 0:23:32.080
<v Speaker 3>at his home in Rohobe with be Beach, Delaware, kind

0:23:32.080 --> 0:23:34.280
<v Speaker 3>of figuring all of this out. Thinking through all of this,

0:23:34.760 --> 0:23:36.960
<v Speaker 3>we've heard from them. We'll see how much more that coalesces.

0:23:36.960 --> 0:23:39.600
<v Speaker 3>And then we'll see, as we've been talking about, what

0:23:39.760 --> 0:23:41.800
<v Speaker 3>other interests there may or may not be from other

0:23:41.880 --> 0:23:44.440
<v Speaker 3>people in the Democratic Party to run, and then who

0:23:44.520 --> 0:23:46.320
<v Speaker 3>Kamala Harris, if she is the nomine would pick for

0:23:46.320 --> 0:23:47.800
<v Speaker 3>her vice presidential running mate.

0:23:47.840 --> 0:23:50.200
<v Speaker 4>And now folks, we will digress, and again we welcome

0:23:50.240 --> 0:23:52.080
<v Speaker 4>all of you to the shock of this news. The

0:23:52.119 --> 0:23:54.720
<v Speaker 4>path forward for the nation, the path forward for the

0:23:54.720 --> 0:23:58.720
<v Speaker 4>Democratic Party, and the pathword only Joe Matthew knows how

0:23:58.760 --> 0:24:04.200
<v Speaker 4>big a piggy ban President Biden has. We're still working on, Joe.

0:24:04.280 --> 0:24:06.360
<v Speaker 4>I see, Oh, let me go to you on this aid. Yeah.

0:24:06.400 --> 0:24:09.760
<v Speaker 3>No, it is a sizeable pigure. It's over one hundred,

0:24:09.800 --> 0:24:12.240
<v Speaker 3>over two hundred and fifty two hundred forty million dollars,

0:24:12.320 --> 0:24:15.560
<v Speaker 3>so a little bit behind Donald Trump, but many, many

0:24:15.560 --> 0:24:19.199
<v Speaker 3>millions of dollars. And as we heard from Lord Davison

0:24:19.240 --> 0:24:21.159
<v Speaker 3>just a moment ago, Kamala Harris has been on the

0:24:21.200 --> 0:24:24.880
<v Speaker 3>campaign trill during this uncomfortable period, raising a lot of money.

0:24:24.960 --> 0:24:27.200
<v Speaker 3>She's on Cape cod presently where she raised two million

0:24:27.240 --> 0:24:29.920
<v Speaker 3>dollars at this most recent fundraiser. So they have been

0:24:29.920 --> 0:24:33.400
<v Speaker 3>out there beating the bushes, trying to get money from donors.

0:24:33.480 --> 0:24:35.760
<v Speaker 3>And as I say that, I have to acknowledge the

0:24:35.800 --> 0:24:39.320
<v Speaker 3>fact that as all of this unfolded, there was concern

0:24:39.359 --> 0:24:41.720
<v Speaker 3>among rank and file Democrats. There was, as we saw,

0:24:41.800 --> 0:24:44.760
<v Speaker 3>concern among members of the House, forty plus of them

0:24:44.800 --> 0:24:47.399
<v Speaker 3>coming out suggesting that Joe Biden should do this members

0:24:47.400 --> 0:24:50.280
<v Speaker 3>of the Senate as well, but also from donors. You know,

0:24:50.280 --> 0:24:54.119
<v Speaker 3>what we've heard is that the chief fundraisers for the

0:24:54.119 --> 0:24:56.399
<v Speaker 3>bind reelection campaign have been fielding all kinds of questions

0:24:56.480 --> 0:24:59.119
<v Speaker 3>from their donors. Jeffre Katzenberg chief among them. He the

0:24:59.119 --> 0:25:01.439
<v Speaker 3>main fundraiser. This was something that they were agitating or

0:25:01.440 --> 0:25:02.560
<v Speaker 3>having to deal with as well.

0:25:02.359 --> 0:25:04.840
<v Speaker 4>For mere mortals. David, you're used to this, Joe Matthews

0:25:04.880 --> 0:25:07.200
<v Speaker 4>used to this as well. For me. The idea of

0:25:07.359 --> 0:25:10.880
<v Speaker 4>you know, X millions of dollars, it's sitting in a bank,

0:25:11.400 --> 0:25:15.879
<v Speaker 4>They're going to spend it evenly and rapidly, ads and

0:25:15.920 --> 0:25:18.800
<v Speaker 4>all the rest of the apparatus, and that the vice

0:25:18.880 --> 0:25:24.200
<v Speaker 4>president can pick up that slug of money. Correct she can?

0:25:24.359 --> 0:25:25.520
<v Speaker 3>They are adamant that she can.

0:25:25.720 --> 0:25:29.679
<v Speaker 4>And what can Governor Shapiro Pennsylvania do. Sell a bottle

0:25:29.720 --> 0:25:32.320
<v Speaker 4>of yengling and try to get through What's he do?

0:25:32.520 --> 0:25:34.280
<v Speaker 3>They would have to sell many trucks of yongling to

0:25:34.320 --> 0:25:36.399
<v Speaker 3>catch up. But this has been what those who have

0:25:36.440 --> 0:25:38.960
<v Speaker 3>supported Kamala Harris being the nominee have said all along

0:25:39.080 --> 0:25:41.840
<v Speaker 3>is this is the Biden Harris campaign. Her name is

0:25:41.880 --> 0:25:44.040
<v Speaker 3>on the ticket. She's helped raise this fire. She could

0:25:44.080 --> 0:25:45.880
<v Speaker 3>get that money and others couldn't, and that has been

0:25:46.040 --> 0:25:48.840
<v Speaker 3>one of the principal reasons why they've said in this

0:25:48.880 --> 0:25:51.159
<v Speaker 3>period when there's been a lot of haggling, she's the

0:25:51.200 --> 0:25:54.080
<v Speaker 3>clear choice because she has access to it. Look, you know, well, Tom,

0:25:54.320 --> 0:25:57.679
<v Speaker 3>these campaigns are expensive campaigns cost many millions of dollars.

0:25:57.800 --> 0:25:59.359
<v Speaker 3>To not have that and to start with what you know,

0:25:59.480 --> 0:26:02.480
<v Speaker 3>many weeks to go into the election would be incredibly dis.

0:26:02.200 --> 0:26:04.280
<v Speaker 4>Is it August tenth of Chicago, Pittsburgh?

0:26:04.720 --> 0:26:06.720
<v Speaker 3>That might be Jackson Hole, but it's a busy I

0:26:06.760 --> 0:26:08.959
<v Speaker 3>can't keep track of it. You're listening to a special

0:26:09.080 --> 0:26:12.040
<v Speaker 3>edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm David Gurrow with Tom Keen

0:26:12.080 --> 0:26:12.880
<v Speaker 3>and Joe Matthew.

0:26:13.320 --> 0:26:15.400
<v Speaker 6>Plenty ahead, This is Bloomberg.

0:26:24.720 --> 0:26:28.400
<v Speaker 2>Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from

0:26:28.440 --> 0:26:29.399
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Radio.

0:26:29.560 --> 0:26:32.480
<v Speaker 3>You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm

0:26:32.560 --> 0:26:35.600
<v Speaker 3>David Gerrow with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news

0:26:35.600 --> 0:26:38.880
<v Speaker 3>this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his re election bid,

0:26:39.160 --> 0:26:42.080
<v Speaker 3>Biden saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed

0:26:42.160 --> 0:26:45.000
<v Speaker 3>Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place as the

0:26:45.000 --> 0:26:46.199
<v Speaker 3>Democratic nominee.

0:26:46.320 --> 0:26:49.399
<v Speaker 4>We're here at this very historic moment for the country,

0:26:49.400 --> 0:26:51.359
<v Speaker 4>and we welcome all of you, and we really appreciate

0:26:51.840 --> 0:26:55.720
<v Speaker 4>our guests for the effort that they've made. This guest

0:26:56.000 --> 0:26:59.040
<v Speaker 4>has said the single most important thing I've heard from

0:26:59.119 --> 0:27:05.160
<v Speaker 4>that horrific debate for President Biden, Terry Haynes appee has said, Tom,

0:27:05.640 --> 0:27:09.600
<v Speaker 4>all that matters are the polls. Mister Haynes joins us. Now.

0:27:09.640 --> 0:27:12.679
<v Speaker 4>I can't say enough about following him on LinkedIn for

0:27:12.800 --> 0:27:18.439
<v Speaker 4>intelligent summaries. Whatever your political persuasion, Terry Haynes, do you

0:27:18.560 --> 0:27:21.359
<v Speaker 4>have polls? And when do you and the vice president

0:27:21.720 --> 0:27:22.440
<v Speaker 4>get them?

0:27:24.920 --> 0:27:27.879
<v Speaker 9>Just you know, there's a bunch of folks pinging me

0:27:28.000 --> 0:27:30.800
<v Speaker 9>and pelting me right now saying you realize, of course

0:27:30.840 --> 0:27:34.399
<v Speaker 9>Harris polls worse than Biden. There's some evidence to that effect.

0:27:34.440 --> 0:27:37.880
<v Speaker 9>There's also some evidence that they pull better. My advice

0:27:37.920 --> 0:27:41.119
<v Speaker 9>all along has been, you know, ignore the ignore the

0:27:41.119 --> 0:27:44.160
<v Speaker 9>green eye shade stuff. You're you're you know, you're now

0:27:44.640 --> 0:27:48.720
<v Speaker 9>from from Washington political technicians who love talking about this

0:27:48.800 --> 0:27:50.600
<v Speaker 9>stuff and how you can dial it up or dial

0:27:50.640 --> 0:27:54.399
<v Speaker 9>it down, Harris is going to be in uncharted waters

0:27:54.440 --> 0:27:57.439
<v Speaker 9>if indeed it is Harris, and I imagine that the

0:27:57.640 --> 0:28:01.640
<v Speaker 9>energy that comes from this campaign and Democrats rallying around her,

0:28:02.520 --> 0:28:04.760
<v Speaker 9>you know, really give Democrats a big shot in the

0:28:04.840 --> 0:28:07.400
<v Speaker 9>arm here and on poles. Last thing I would say

0:28:07.600 --> 0:28:12.240
<v Speaker 9>is the two way national average two day before Biden

0:28:12.320 --> 0:28:15.320
<v Speaker 9>dropped out was Trump up by three, with a bunch

0:28:15.359 --> 0:28:19.000
<v Speaker 9>of polls that have margins of error that are bigger

0:28:19.040 --> 0:28:22.360
<v Speaker 9>than that. So you know, Harris is not far off

0:28:22.400 --> 0:28:26.480
<v Speaker 9>the scent here. And my immediate prediction is she probably

0:28:26.520 --> 0:28:27.360
<v Speaker 9>gets a little stronger.

0:28:27.800 --> 0:28:29.680
<v Speaker 3>Talk about that strength if you would, Terry, It's great

0:28:29.720 --> 0:28:31.320
<v Speaker 3>to speak with you as always, And I've had a

0:28:31.359 --> 0:28:34.359
<v Speaker 3>lot of people say to me, look, Kamala Harris hasn't

0:28:34.359 --> 0:28:36.600
<v Speaker 3>been able to campaign as much as she might like to,

0:28:37.040 --> 0:28:39.080
<v Speaker 3>might not have as big a policy portfolio as she

0:28:39.120 --> 0:28:41.840
<v Speaker 3>wants to, in part because of the relationship that she

0:28:41.920 --> 0:28:44.479
<v Speaker 3>has with the president, in part because they don't want

0:28:44.480 --> 0:28:46.160
<v Speaker 3>her to be outfront. They want to be out front.

0:28:46.840 --> 0:28:49.040
<v Speaker 3>So that wall drops she's able to get out there.

0:28:49.600 --> 0:28:51.239
<v Speaker 3>What are we likely to see from her? I mean,

0:28:51.400 --> 0:28:54.360
<v Speaker 3>I've watched her at some events recently. She is a

0:28:54.400 --> 0:28:57.440
<v Speaker 3>powerful speaker, she's able, she's very facile with everything that's

0:28:57.440 --> 0:29:00.560
<v Speaker 3>in her portfolio and more, what do you expect her

0:29:00.680 --> 0:29:02.400
<v Speaker 3>on the campaign trail to look like?

0:29:02.520 --> 0:29:02.760
<v Speaker 4>Now?

0:29:04.160 --> 0:29:06.120
<v Speaker 9>My advice all along has been I wrote a piece

0:29:06.120 --> 0:29:08.880
<v Speaker 9>about this back in February at one point, I believe

0:29:08.920 --> 0:29:11.680
<v Speaker 9>it or not, about how you know you basically underestimate

0:29:11.720 --> 0:29:14.600
<v Speaker 9>Harris at your peril. It's very fashionable in Washington to

0:29:14.640 --> 0:29:16.920
<v Speaker 9>walk around and say, well, you know, she doesn't speak

0:29:16.960 --> 0:29:19.400
<v Speaker 9>so well. And there's plenty of examples of that, and

0:29:19.440 --> 0:29:22.280
<v Speaker 9>you'll still now see them all in campaign advertisements in

0:29:22.280 --> 0:29:25.720
<v Speaker 9>the next four months. But you know where she's really strong.

0:29:25.840 --> 0:29:28.880
<v Speaker 9>She's really strong, and it's a and it dovetails very

0:29:28.960 --> 0:29:32.840
<v Speaker 9>nicely into the Democratic message, which is on all on

0:29:32.880 --> 0:29:37.479
<v Speaker 9>all the social issues that are the core of the

0:29:37.520 --> 0:29:41.600
<v Speaker 9>core of the Democratic message. And I would expect her

0:29:41.640 --> 0:29:44.240
<v Speaker 9>to hammer away at that. And that is a powerful

0:29:44.280 --> 0:29:47.240
<v Speaker 9>message not only to Democratic base, but it's an enticing

0:29:47.280 --> 0:29:51.600
<v Speaker 9>message to a lot of independent voters as well. One

0:29:51.640 --> 0:29:55.120
<v Speaker 9>thing that the Democrats have to do in order to

0:29:55.160 --> 0:29:59.280
<v Speaker 9>win is to keep but excuse me, keep Trump underwater

0:29:59.480 --> 0:30:04.160
<v Speaker 9>within the endants and Harris. Harris being a hugely forceful

0:30:04.200 --> 0:30:08.080
<v Speaker 9>advocate on social issues of all kinds. And you know,

0:30:08.120 --> 0:30:10.080
<v Speaker 9>it is something I think you'll just you'll see them

0:30:10.080 --> 0:30:11.280
<v Speaker 9>be relentless.

0:30:10.800 --> 0:30:14.560
<v Speaker 4>At I once flunk to test Terry Haynes on vice

0:30:14.600 --> 0:30:18.000
<v Speaker 4>presidential history. I couldn't name any of them. And there's

0:30:18.040 --> 0:30:20.760
<v Speaker 4>this heritage back to eighteen oh two or whatever that

0:30:21.560 --> 0:30:25.120
<v Speaker 4>they're just vice presidents and they'll be Okay, to the

0:30:25.160 --> 0:30:28.040
<v Speaker 4>point you made with David Gerrow moments ago, do we

0:30:28.160 --> 0:30:31.600
<v Speaker 4>really know who the prosecutor from California is?

0:30:34.240 --> 0:30:34.320
<v Speaker 5>No?

0:30:34.440 --> 0:30:35.160
<v Speaker 9>I don't think we do.

0:30:35.280 --> 0:30:37.120
<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I agree, she thinks she's.

0:30:36.880 --> 0:30:41.320
<v Speaker 9>Had very much a meteoric rise, and but you know,

0:30:41.120 --> 0:30:43.840
<v Speaker 9>you haven't seen her out there on her own, really shining.

0:30:43.920 --> 0:30:46.440
<v Speaker 9>And she's never been in a contested election before really

0:30:46.680 --> 0:30:49.760
<v Speaker 9>other than her first one where she barely won. But

0:30:49.880 --> 0:30:52.480
<v Speaker 9>you know, California being the you know, among the bluest

0:30:52.480 --> 0:30:56.440
<v Speaker 9>of blue states, this is a very different this is

0:30:56.480 --> 0:30:58.360
<v Speaker 9>a very different arena.

0:30:58.840 --> 0:31:02.640
<v Speaker 3>It's a it's a very different arena. And you know,

0:31:02.640 --> 0:31:04.280
<v Speaker 3>if I could, I'd love for you to take a

0:31:04.280 --> 0:31:05.680
<v Speaker 3>step at the question that Tom asked me so I

0:31:05.720 --> 0:31:07.600
<v Speaker 3>can answer with some authority the next time he asked me,

0:31:07.600 --> 0:31:09.520
<v Speaker 3>but who is she? Who is she looking for? We

0:31:09.560 --> 0:31:11.120
<v Speaker 3>know what the process is going to be like. She's

0:31:11.160 --> 0:31:13.320
<v Speaker 3>going to meet with all of these folks whose names

0:31:13.360 --> 0:31:15.920
<v Speaker 3>we've seen floated in recent days. See who she gets

0:31:15.960 --> 0:31:18.800
<v Speaker 3>along with, Who might bring what to the ticket? What's yours?

0:31:18.880 --> 0:31:20.640
<v Speaker 3>If you had to game that out, if if you

0:31:20.680 --> 0:31:22.200
<v Speaker 3>had to look at the pluses and minuses of what

0:31:22.240 --> 0:31:24.880
<v Speaker 3>each offers. Who does she need to pick? What type

0:31:24.920 --> 0:31:26.200
<v Speaker 3>of running mate does she need to pick?

0:31:26.960 --> 0:31:30.440
<v Speaker 9>She needs a centrist swing state governor? Would be my

0:31:31.400 --> 0:31:32.200
<v Speaker 9>is my instinct.

0:31:32.320 --> 0:31:35.280
<v Speaker 4>So you're in Philadelphia. I think they've won sixty games

0:31:35.320 --> 0:31:37.240
<v Speaker 4>so far this year. The Phillies are just killing the

0:31:37.360 --> 0:31:39.800
<v Speaker 4>Terry Haynes, you're in Philadelphia.

0:31:40.280 --> 0:31:43.640
<v Speaker 9>My Pittsburgh Pirates to beat them Friday night and Saturday night, so.

0:31:43.600 --> 0:31:46.440
<v Speaker 3>They're in their surveillance correction here on Sunday.

0:31:46.480 --> 0:31:49.720
<v Speaker 4>And their stadium is far their ball field is far

0:31:49.760 --> 0:31:54.640
<v Speaker 4>more elegant than in Philadelphia. In Philadelphia, Terry Hayes, you

0:31:54.720 --> 0:31:57.040
<v Speaker 4>got to go out in the suburbs and I get

0:31:57.080 --> 0:32:01.200
<v Speaker 4>that there's an issue that's demonstrably proven, abortion and changes votes.

0:32:01.680 --> 0:32:06.120
<v Speaker 4>What's the next issue after that? For a nominee such

0:32:06.160 --> 0:32:07.719
<v Speaker 4>as Mazaris.

0:32:08.600 --> 0:32:10.160
<v Speaker 9>I think what you have to do is you you

0:32:10.520 --> 0:32:13.080
<v Speaker 9>really have to goose the uh you really have to

0:32:13.080 --> 0:32:15.560
<v Speaker 9>goose the urban votes. So it's going to be uh,

0:32:15.680 --> 0:32:20.600
<v Speaker 9>civil rights issues attacked from the Supreme Court. Uh, you know,

0:32:20.640 --> 0:32:21.760
<v Speaker 9>all those sorts of things.

0:32:21.960 --> 0:32:22.160
<v Speaker 4>Uh.

0:32:22.200 --> 0:32:24.800
<v Speaker 9>And and you and you have to be you have

0:32:24.840 --> 0:32:27.080
<v Speaker 9>to be nuanced. You have to be firm but nuanced

0:32:27.200 --> 0:32:32.520
<v Speaker 9>on on immigration because uh, in order to attract Hispanic

0:32:32.600 --> 0:32:36.720
<v Speaker 9>voters back. Uh, you know, there's uh, you know, we're

0:32:36.720 --> 0:32:40.280
<v Speaker 9>we're not that far away from uh, you know, the

0:32:40.320 --> 0:32:44.200
<v Speaker 9>old style machine politics. But there will still be efforts

0:32:44.240 --> 0:32:46.840
<v Speaker 9>to to goose that turnout. But what gets people going

0:32:47.480 --> 0:32:50.920
<v Speaker 9>uh will be uh, you know, will be abortion, will

0:32:50.960 --> 0:32:54.040
<v Speaker 9>be social programs, will be kind of the traditional democratic

0:32:54.360 --> 0:33:00.240
<v Speaker 9>uh uh programs combined with the strong thought that what

0:33:00.280 --> 0:33:02.120
<v Speaker 9>Trump and the Republicans want to do is get rid

0:33:02.160 --> 0:33:02.880
<v Speaker 9>of all that stuff.

0:33:03.040 --> 0:33:05.280
<v Speaker 3>Let me ask you about how Democrats capitalize on the

0:33:05.320 --> 0:33:07.200
<v Speaker 3>timing of this. And I mean I could look back

0:33:07.560 --> 0:33:09.760
<v Speaker 3>and I could say, look, if this had happened during

0:33:09.800 --> 0:33:11.720
<v Speaker 3>the course of the RNC, just think about what that

0:33:11.760 --> 0:33:14.160
<v Speaker 3>final night would have been like with Donald Trump speaking,

0:33:14.200 --> 0:33:15.960
<v Speaker 3>if Joe Biden had issued this letter, now that he

0:33:15.960 --> 0:33:18.440
<v Speaker 3>didn't do this Vietnaval Office address, he could have sent

0:33:18.440 --> 0:33:19.600
<v Speaker 3>this letter out on Thursday.

0:33:20.160 --> 0:33:21.320
<v Speaker 4>Wow, that would have.

0:33:21.320 --> 0:33:23.560
<v Speaker 3>Upended all of the coverage that this had gotten, that

0:33:23.840 --> 0:33:26.880
<v Speaker 3>speech had gotten. All right, we're moving past that. We

0:33:26.960 --> 0:33:29.760
<v Speaker 3>get this letter on a Sunday. How do Democrats seize

0:33:29.760 --> 0:33:33.280
<v Speaker 3>the spotlight and the narrative going forward? Here you have

0:33:33.480 --> 0:33:36.480
<v Speaker 3>the former president weighing in that, you know, suggesting that

0:33:36.520 --> 0:33:39.720
<v Speaker 3>Joe Biden should just step aside from his position entirely. Now,

0:33:39.880 --> 0:33:42.200
<v Speaker 3>what did Democrats need to do to reclaim the narrative?

0:33:43.040 --> 0:33:45.560
<v Speaker 9>Well, firstly, they need to call lesser on Harris. And

0:33:45.640 --> 0:33:48.479
<v Speaker 9>I'm not sure the extent. I mean, this obviously just happened,

0:33:48.520 --> 0:33:51.200
<v Speaker 9>but I'm not sure of the degree that they that

0:33:51.280 --> 0:33:55.440
<v Speaker 9>they want to. I thought Biden's I thought Biden initially

0:33:55.520 --> 0:33:58.120
<v Speaker 9>not endorsing her, and then ten minutes later somebody pointing

0:33:58.160 --> 0:33:59.480
<v Speaker 9>out to him that, you know, you need to go

0:33:59.560 --> 0:34:03.160
<v Speaker 9>endorse her. Uh said volumes about the disarray not only

0:34:03.240 --> 0:34:07.760
<v Speaker 9>in Biden world but among Democrats. Now that said, if

0:34:07.800 --> 0:34:10.440
<v Speaker 9>I was Harris, I'd be I'd be out there this

0:34:10.520 --> 0:34:14.400
<v Speaker 9>afternoon acting like I was the nominee and uh, you know,

0:34:14.440 --> 0:34:16.640
<v Speaker 9>and I'd be going down to uh, you know, the

0:34:16.640 --> 0:34:20.759
<v Speaker 9>Biden campaign head quarters kicking some rear ends too, But

0:34:21.280 --> 0:34:24.120
<v Speaker 9>the sooner that she acts as as the presumptive nominee,

0:34:24.160 --> 0:34:24.839
<v Speaker 9>the better for her.

0:34:25.640 --> 0:34:29.800
<v Speaker 4>First this is critical. Terry unfortunately got one minute left.

0:34:30.080 --> 0:34:32.600
<v Speaker 4>How will we how WI How will she be greeted

0:34:33.120 --> 0:34:35.239
<v Speaker 4>by loyal Biden operatives.

0:34:37.520 --> 0:34:46.280
<v Speaker 9>She'll be greeted with publicly with rapture and privately hugs

0:34:46.280 --> 0:34:50.120
<v Speaker 9>and kisses. But privately they'll feel like, I mean, she

0:34:50.280 --> 0:34:53.399
<v Speaker 9>wasn't part of the part of the coup, but they'll

0:34:53.440 --> 0:34:57.560
<v Speaker 9>they'll feel abashed that their their their guy isn't there anymore.

0:34:59.120 --> 0:35:00.600
<v Speaker 4>I got to leave it there. I look forward to

0:35:00.600 --> 0:35:04.320
<v Speaker 4>your LinkedIn summaries that you do there just really really exquisite.

0:35:04.360 --> 0:35:09.040
<v Speaker 4>Terry Haynes with Pangaea, a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance,

0:35:09.040 --> 0:35:12.040
<v Speaker 4>and we say good morning and good afternoon to all

0:35:12.080 --> 0:35:14.759
<v Speaker 4>of you. Good morning of course in Asia, waking up

0:35:14.840 --> 0:35:17.279
<v Speaker 4>very early in the morning to the news that the

0:35:17.320 --> 0:35:20.239
<v Speaker 4>President of the United States will step aside and he

0:35:20.320 --> 0:35:22.880
<v Speaker 4>will not seek a second term. And of course the

0:35:22.920 --> 0:35:26.280
<v Speaker 4>operative idea here is it is late in the cycle.

0:35:26.360 --> 0:35:30.880
<v Speaker 4>He endorses the vice president from California, Kamala Harris, David

0:35:30.880 --> 0:35:32.880
<v Speaker 4>Gerr and Tom Keane with you in New York will

0:35:32.880 --> 0:35:35.480
<v Speaker 4>have any number of guests in this hour stay with

0:35:35.560 --> 0:35:38.520
<v Speaker 4>our special broadcast from five to seven that will be

0:35:38.520 --> 0:35:41.840
<v Speaker 4>on Bloomberg Television. We welcome all of you on television

0:35:41.880 --> 0:35:46.000
<v Speaker 4>on radio across this nation as well. David, we have

0:35:46.040 --> 0:35:49.239
<v Speaker 4>an esteem guest to bring. And now she survived Milwaukee,

0:35:49.560 --> 0:35:53.160
<v Speaker 4>she's getting ready for Chicago. She's two I think it

0:35:53.200 --> 0:35:55.640
<v Speaker 4>was two weeks in Crete. As she got ready for Chicago,

0:35:56.160 --> 0:35:58.200
<v Speaker 4>ripped up that trip. Why don't you bring in Kaylee

0:35:58.320 --> 0:36:00.160
<v Speaker 4>Lines with her observision.

0:36:00.120 --> 0:36:02.239
<v Speaker 3>Of course, the co host of Balance of Power here

0:36:02.280 --> 0:36:04.880
<v Speaker 3>on Bloomberg Radio and Bloomberg Television. As you say, she

0:36:04.960 --> 0:36:07.799
<v Speaker 3>was at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee and did

0:36:07.800 --> 0:36:10.640
<v Speaker 3>one of the craziest teleportations I've seen in my life,

0:36:10.640 --> 0:36:12.560
<v Speaker 3>Shinjo getting back to Washington for a full day of

0:36:12.600 --> 0:36:14.760
<v Speaker 3>coverage on Friday. As we all were kind of watching

0:36:14.800 --> 0:36:17.560
<v Speaker 3>to see how this would play out, Katie Lines, let

0:36:17.600 --> 0:36:18.960
<v Speaker 3>me ask you, first of all, sort of what you're

0:36:19.000 --> 0:36:21.600
<v Speaker 3>watching for here as you look at these reactions come

0:36:21.640 --> 0:36:25.840
<v Speaker 3>in from Democrats, senior democrats, junior democrats. What those statements

0:36:25.840 --> 0:36:27.880
<v Speaker 3>and aggregate are telling you about the direction of all

0:36:27.920 --> 0:36:28.160
<v Speaker 3>of this.

0:36:29.120 --> 0:36:31.000
<v Speaker 11>Well, I think what's more telling at this point, David,

0:36:31.080 --> 0:36:33.080
<v Speaker 11>is that the people who have not yet in a

0:36:33.120 --> 0:36:37.000
<v Speaker 11>statement given a direct endorsement of Kamala Harris, including most

0:36:37.040 --> 0:36:40.160
<v Speaker 11>of the senior leadership of Democrats in Congress, the House

0:36:40.200 --> 0:36:43.560
<v Speaker 11>Democratic Leader Hackeing Jeffreys, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, have

0:36:43.600 --> 0:36:46.160
<v Speaker 11>not explicitly endorsed her, as Joe Biden did about ten

0:36:46.200 --> 0:36:48.319
<v Speaker 11>minutes after initially putting out the statement that he wasn't

0:36:48.360 --> 0:36:51.440
<v Speaker 11>running for reelection. So those will be some key figures

0:36:51.480 --> 0:36:53.719
<v Speaker 11>to watch, as well as those that we'd understood had

0:36:53.760 --> 0:36:56.160
<v Speaker 11>been in conversation as to whether or not they could

0:36:56.239 --> 0:36:59.200
<v Speaker 11>potentially be the Democratic nominee themselves. Think about the governor's

0:36:59.239 --> 0:37:03.000
<v Speaker 11>Davie pritzkerve Illinois, Gavin Newsom of California, even the likes

0:37:03.000 --> 0:37:06.600
<v Speaker 11>of Joshapiro and Pennsylvania Gretcher Whittmer in Michigan. We haven't

0:37:06.640 --> 0:37:11.520
<v Speaker 11>really heard from them saying anything other than Kaylee service

0:37:11.560 --> 0:37:12.160
<v Speaker 11>as president.

0:37:12.360 --> 0:37:14.640
<v Speaker 4>What are they going to say, Mister Pritzker is in

0:37:14.719 --> 0:37:19.279
<v Speaker 4>Illinois with a massive population loss, Chicago's flat on its back,

0:37:19.320 --> 0:37:23.120
<v Speaker 4>forget about the convention and all that. What is going

0:37:23.200 --> 0:37:25.839
<v Speaker 4>to be their response one day from now? Five days

0:37:25.840 --> 0:37:28.840
<v Speaker 4>from now, ten days from now to a vice president

0:37:28.880 --> 0:37:32.800
<v Speaker 4>with what, David a quarter of a billion dollars? What

0:37:33.520 --> 0:37:34.640
<v Speaker 4>are they what are they going to say?

0:37:34.719 --> 0:37:37.800
<v Speaker 11>Kaylee lines, Well, that's a very good point. The money

0:37:37.920 --> 0:37:39.960
<v Speaker 11>is a huge factor here. Because Harris had been part

0:37:39.960 --> 0:37:42.239
<v Speaker 11>of the Biden Harris campaign. She has access to that

0:37:42.280 --> 0:37:44.480
<v Speaker 11>war chest with hundreds of millions of dollars in it,

0:37:44.560 --> 0:37:46.640
<v Speaker 11>more easily than any other candidate would. Of course, if

0:37:46.640 --> 0:37:49.000
<v Speaker 11>we're thinking about JB. Pritzker, who has his own personal

0:37:49.040 --> 0:37:51.760
<v Speaker 11>fortune that held theoretically could tap to help sellth fund,

0:37:52.160 --> 0:37:55.160
<v Speaker 11>that's a separate conversation. But really it's going to be

0:37:55.200 --> 0:37:57.200
<v Speaker 11>about what happens in the coming days. Is we are

0:37:57.239 --> 0:37:59.080
<v Speaker 11>not working with a great deal of time here at

0:37:59.080 --> 0:38:01.440
<v Speaker 11>the convention. If four weeks from tomorrow, it starts on

0:38:01.480 --> 0:38:03.319
<v Speaker 11>August nineteenth, so that is not a lot of time

0:38:03.719 --> 0:38:06.880
<v Speaker 11>to get together support for a bid to go against

0:38:06.880 --> 0:38:09.600
<v Speaker 11>Harris in an open convention if one wanted to. Of course,

0:38:09.600 --> 0:38:11.600
<v Speaker 11>we're going to be watching very carefully for polling in

0:38:11.640 --> 0:38:14.200
<v Speaker 11>the next few weeks to see how a Kamala Harris

0:38:14.280 --> 0:38:16.479
<v Speaker 11>at the top of the ticket pulls against a Trump

0:38:16.520 --> 0:38:18.719
<v Speaker 11>advance ticket. Since we know that jd Vance is Donald

0:38:18.719 --> 0:38:21.840
<v Speaker 11>Trump's election to be the vice presidential nominee, and that

0:38:21.960 --> 0:38:25.000
<v Speaker 11>polling could dictate the feeling moving forward toward the convention

0:38:25.040 --> 0:38:26.799
<v Speaker 11>as to whether or not someone else needs to try

0:38:26.840 --> 0:38:29.719
<v Speaker 11>to contest this and step in if Kamala Harris is

0:38:29.760 --> 0:38:31.759
<v Speaker 11>not felt to be the strongest candidate to defeat Trump

0:38:31.840 --> 0:38:33.000
<v Speaker 11>in November.

0:38:32.640 --> 0:38:35.560
<v Speaker 4>Kaylee delicate question one of the Cardinal.

0:38:35.239 --> 0:38:37.919
<v Speaker 11>Rules and a democratic prim Republicans are going.

0:38:37.840 --> 0:38:43.160
<v Speaker 4>To a legal challenge to a president. On Bloomberg Television

0:38:43.280 --> 0:38:46.880
<v Speaker 4>and Bloomberg Radio worldwide from her studios in Washington in

0:38:46.960 --> 0:38:49.719
<v Speaker 4>New York, Joe Matthew, David Gurra, and Tom King with

0:38:49.840 --> 0:38:53.960
<v Speaker 4>this special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. Joe Matthew and Katie.

0:38:53.760 --> 0:38:56.759
<v Speaker 3>Lyons, You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance.

0:38:56.880 --> 0:38:59.520
<v Speaker 3>I'm David Ura with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew.

0:39:00.000 --> 0:39:00.719
<v Speaker 9>At this.

0:39:10.200 --> 0:39:13.839
<v Speaker 2>Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. From

0:39:13.960 --> 0:39:14.920
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Radio.

0:39:15.160 --> 0:39:18.080
<v Speaker 3>You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm

0:39:18.160 --> 0:39:21.200
<v Speaker 3>David Gerro with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news

0:39:21.200 --> 0:39:25.120
<v Speaker 3>this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid Biden,

0:39:25.239 --> 0:39:27.960
<v Speaker 3>saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice

0:39:28.000 --> 0:39:32.239
<v Speaker 3>President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee.

0:39:31.880 --> 0:39:34.000
<v Speaker 12>The great Nathan Dean. I'm just delighted to hear that

0:39:34.040 --> 0:39:36.520
<v Speaker 12>we have a dad with us, as we call him

0:39:36.520 --> 0:39:40.400
<v Speaker 12>in Washington here, because Nathan is in touch with the clients,

0:39:40.960 --> 0:39:43.640
<v Speaker 12>the people who use the terminal, the people who will

0:39:43.640 --> 0:39:46.560
<v Speaker 12>trade on this information. And before we bring in Nathan,

0:39:46.600 --> 0:39:48.160
<v Speaker 12>I want to tell you guys that we have heard

0:39:48.560 --> 0:39:51.200
<v Speaker 12>from the nominee in waiting. We just heard from Kamala

0:39:51.239 --> 0:39:54.640
<v Speaker 12>Harris in a written statement here that is full of

0:39:54.680 --> 0:39:58.200
<v Speaker 12>gratitude for several paragraphs, and goes on to write, I

0:39:58.239 --> 0:40:01.280
<v Speaker 12>am honored to have the President's endorsement, and my intention

0:40:01.440 --> 0:40:05.160
<v Speaker 12>is to earn and win this nomination, win the word

0:40:05.200 --> 0:40:07.960
<v Speaker 12>that she chooses. Over the past year, I have traveled

0:40:08.000 --> 0:40:10.960
<v Speaker 12>across the country talking with Americans about the clear choice

0:40:10.960 --> 0:40:13.200
<v Speaker 12>in this momentous election, and that is what I will

0:40:13.239 --> 0:40:15.319
<v Speaker 12>continue to do in the days and weeks ahead. She

0:40:15.440 --> 0:40:19.600
<v Speaker 12>talks about Tom and David uniting the party to defeat

0:40:19.600 --> 0:40:23.040
<v Speaker 12>Donald Trump and his extreme Project twenty twenty five agenda,

0:40:23.320 --> 0:40:26.360
<v Speaker 12>referring to one hundred seven days until election day. Together,

0:40:26.440 --> 0:40:29.280
<v Speaker 12>she writes, we will fight, we will win. This sounds

0:40:29.320 --> 0:40:32.600
<v Speaker 12>like something that is written by someone in the throes

0:40:32.680 --> 0:40:35.520
<v Speaker 12>of a primary contest or potentially throwing their hat into

0:40:35.560 --> 0:40:39.359
<v Speaker 12>the ring, not a sitting vice president on a remarkable day. Here,

0:40:39.719 --> 0:40:42.279
<v Speaker 12>Nathan Dean, thank you for joining us. I wonder who

0:40:42.320 --> 0:40:45.160
<v Speaker 12>you're hearing from today already and how this might move

0:40:45.239 --> 0:40:46.040
<v Speaker 12>markets tomorrow.

0:40:47.040 --> 0:40:49.080
<v Speaker 13>Well, you know that we actually put out a series

0:40:49.120 --> 0:40:51.279
<v Speaker 13>of notes on Friday just on the chance. Look, and

0:40:51.320 --> 0:40:53.680
<v Speaker 13>nobody knew this was going to happen, But a lot

0:40:53.680 --> 0:40:56.520
<v Speaker 13>of the notes that we put out really had two focuses. Now,

0:40:56.560 --> 0:40:59.440
<v Speaker 13>the first focus is the macro level. And really this election,

0:40:59.520 --> 0:41:02.320
<v Speaker 13>in our view, comes down to two things, tariffs and taxes.

0:41:02.600 --> 0:41:04.840
<v Speaker 13>And obviously, when tariffs with Kamala Harris, you get a

0:41:04.880 --> 0:41:07.520
<v Speaker 13>very similar policy than you do to President Biden, which

0:41:07.560 --> 0:41:10.319
<v Speaker 13>is drastically different than that of President Trump. You know,

0:41:10.400 --> 0:41:13.040
<v Speaker 13>President Trump has called for sixty percent tariffs on item

0:41:13.120 --> 0:41:16.759
<v Speaker 13>imports from China. We anticipated Kamala Harris presidency if she

0:41:16.800 --> 0:41:18.600
<v Speaker 13>were to be elected, to be very similar to more

0:41:18.640 --> 0:41:22.839
<v Speaker 13>targeted sector tariffs. Then you have the tax argument. Now,

0:41:22.840 --> 0:41:24.880
<v Speaker 13>the tax argument is going to be a third quarter

0:41:24.960 --> 0:41:27.799
<v Speaker 13>of twenty twenty five argument because the tax of the

0:41:27.920 --> 0:41:31.080
<v Speaker 13>individual tax cuts for the Trump the individual tax cuts

0:41:31.239 --> 0:41:33.279
<v Speaker 13>as part of the Trump tax cuts expired at the

0:41:33.360 --> 0:41:35.719
<v Speaker 13>end of twenty twenty five, and we see a lot

0:41:35.760 --> 0:41:39.600
<v Speaker 13>of information about terms of assistance for lower cut consumers,

0:41:39.640 --> 0:41:42.839
<v Speaker 13>lower income consumers, a lot of relief for the just

0:41:42.960 --> 0:41:45.680
<v Speaker 13>you know, general, lower to middle income class, and would

0:41:45.680 --> 0:41:49.080
<v Speaker 13>anticipate a you know, call for a higher tax rate

0:41:49.160 --> 0:41:52.440
<v Speaker 13>on individuals that are making more than four hundred thousand dollars.

0:41:52.440 --> 0:41:54.560
<v Speaker 13>It's very similar to what President Biden put out. But

0:41:54.600 --> 0:41:57.200
<v Speaker 13>then you also have the sector specific impacts and really

0:41:57.239 --> 0:41:59.960
<v Speaker 13>what our message to clients is, it's a lot of

0:42:00.120 --> 0:42:04.279
<v Speaker 13>the regulatory status quo, because you know, whether it's banks, evs,

0:42:04.320 --> 0:42:07.279
<v Speaker 13>TMT and so forth like bet. We anticipate that she'd

0:42:07.320 --> 0:42:11.840
<v Speaker 13>be very focused on consumer financial regulation. We anticipate that

0:42:11.880 --> 0:42:14.120
<v Speaker 13>she'd probably have a continuation in terms of m and

0:42:14.120 --> 0:42:18.120
<v Speaker 13>A strategy and anti big tech scrutiny like you see

0:42:18.160 --> 0:42:20.200
<v Speaker 13>over at the Federal Trade Commissioner to Lena Cohn. And

0:42:20.200 --> 0:42:22.560
<v Speaker 13>that's a very important point here is that if Kamala

0:42:22.560 --> 0:42:25.200
<v Speaker 13>Harris were to win the presidency, I think the regulatory

0:42:25.280 --> 0:42:28.920
<v Speaker 13>leadership of the Biden era regulators. You know, most of

0:42:28.920 --> 0:42:31.080
<v Speaker 13>them would probably stick around for the first year of

0:42:31.080 --> 0:42:33.360
<v Speaker 13>her presidency. So I think it's just a lot of

0:42:33.400 --> 0:42:36.440
<v Speaker 13>status quo and very different contrasts that you would see

0:42:36.440 --> 0:42:37.440
<v Speaker 13>in her a Trump presidency.

0:42:38.360 --> 0:42:40.120
<v Speaker 12>Interesting, So I guess we're not going to be talking

0:42:40.120 --> 0:42:42.560
<v Speaker 12>about the Kamala trade, Nathan. I've not only heard about

0:42:42.600 --> 0:42:44.719
<v Speaker 12>the Trump trade for the last two weeks, but even

0:42:44.760 --> 0:42:47.279
<v Speaker 12>the JD trade last week. And it's funny you're talking

0:42:47.280 --> 0:42:48.120
<v Speaker 12>about Lena Kahan.

0:42:48.480 --> 0:42:48.960
<v Speaker 4>Does J. D.

0:42:49.160 --> 0:42:51.439
<v Speaker 12>Vance have more in common with Kamala Harris or Donald

0:42:51.480 --> 0:42:54.759
<v Speaker 12>Trump when it comes to the economy and financial regulations?

0:42:55.480 --> 0:42:57.879
<v Speaker 13>So, you know, it's interesting. You know, I just first state,

0:42:57.960 --> 0:42:59.719
<v Speaker 13>you know, this is the vice president policy and it

0:42:59.760 --> 0:43:02.880
<v Speaker 13>really depends on you know, in JD. Vance's case, if

0:43:02.920 --> 0:43:05.600
<v Speaker 13>President Trump were to defer to Senator Vance in terms

0:43:05.600 --> 0:43:08.120
<v Speaker 13>of you go forth and run with these policies. But

0:43:08.200 --> 0:43:11.120
<v Speaker 13>if he were, Senator Vance is very much aligned with

0:43:11.200 --> 0:43:13.279
<v Speaker 13>Lena Khan. In fact, there was an event at the

0:43:13.280 --> 0:43:16.720
<v Speaker 13>Bloomberg DC office not long ago where he said President

0:43:16.840 --> 0:43:20.000
<v Speaker 13>Lina Khan was President Biden's best pick, and he even

0:43:20.160 --> 0:43:22.040
<v Speaker 13>situated last week. I don't think he would do it.

0:43:22.080 --> 0:43:24.120
<v Speaker 13>That he would, you know, pushed for Lena Khan to

0:43:24.160 --> 0:43:26.920
<v Speaker 13>keep her position. But that's the new reality with the

0:43:26.920 --> 0:43:30.400
<v Speaker 13>Republican Party of this idea of economic populism. It's not

0:43:30.520 --> 0:43:32.680
<v Speaker 13>the very old Republican Party where you can just say

0:43:32.719 --> 0:43:35.960
<v Speaker 13>at a high level, Republicans equal good for a big business.

0:43:36.080 --> 0:43:38.440
<v Speaker 13>It's just not the case anymore. So, you know, what

0:43:38.480 --> 0:43:41.239
<v Speaker 13>we often also have to say to our clients though,

0:43:41.320 --> 0:43:43.600
<v Speaker 13>is just remember a lot of this is headline risk

0:43:43.760 --> 0:43:45.560
<v Speaker 13>right now. I'm not saying it's not going to turn

0:43:45.600 --> 0:43:48.040
<v Speaker 13>into things come to the election time, but you will

0:43:48.040 --> 0:43:51.359
<v Speaker 13>see statements from President Trump, President Biden, Senator Vance, Vice

0:43:51.360 --> 0:43:54.560
<v Speaker 13>President Kamala Harris, and when they become president or vice

0:43:54.560 --> 0:43:57.359
<v Speaker 13>president or are elected, then the question is, how are

0:43:57.360 --> 0:43:59.320
<v Speaker 13>you going to get your plan through Congress? It's almost

0:43:59.320 --> 0:44:01.200
<v Speaker 13>like the Hamilton musical again, how are you going to

0:44:01.239 --> 0:44:04.120
<v Speaker 13>get your plan through? And things begin to actually dial down,

0:44:04.160 --> 0:44:06.000
<v Speaker 13>you know, if they start and say I want to

0:44:06.040 --> 0:44:08.640
<v Speaker 13>do a number ten on this issue, by the time

0:44:08.680 --> 0:44:10.680
<v Speaker 13>they get to Congress in maybe a six or a five.

0:44:10.800 --> 0:44:13.160
<v Speaker 13>So you know, just always keep in mind in terms

0:44:13.239 --> 0:44:15.920
<v Speaker 13>of you know, timing and so forth for the clients

0:44:15.920 --> 0:44:19.480
<v Speaker 13>that we're talking to. It's really the tariff argument first,

0:44:19.960 --> 0:44:23.840
<v Speaker 13>taxes second, and then the sector arguments for each individual

0:44:23.880 --> 0:44:25.480
<v Speaker 13>policies and legislation's third.

0:44:25.920 --> 0:44:28.520
<v Speaker 3>Nathan, bearing in mind this is uncharted territory, I wonder

0:44:28.520 --> 0:44:31.200
<v Speaker 3>what these next few months like through leading to the election.

0:44:31.800 --> 0:44:33.320
<v Speaker 3>I think it's safe to say there hasn't been a

0:44:33.360 --> 0:44:36.440
<v Speaker 3>whole lot of business getting done in Washington already. But

0:44:36.760 --> 0:44:38.960
<v Speaker 3>how does this slow this down? You look as well

0:44:39.000 --> 0:44:41.719
<v Speaker 3>at the comments that we're getting from Republicans about whether

0:44:41.800 --> 0:44:45.080
<v Speaker 3>Joe Biden should step aside. Let's set that aside ourselves

0:44:45.080 --> 0:44:47.800
<v Speaker 3>and just note here we have a lame duck president.

0:44:48.320 --> 0:44:50.080
<v Speaker 3>History can tell us a lot about somebody in that

0:44:50.160 --> 0:44:53.719
<v Speaker 3>position from a policymaking perspective, from a political perspective, what

0:44:53.960 --> 0:44:56.160
<v Speaker 3>are these next few months look like given what's changed

0:44:56.160 --> 0:44:57.160
<v Speaker 3>today in Washington.

0:44:57.840 --> 0:45:00.440
<v Speaker 13>Well, look, Joe Biden is a lame duck starting to morning,

0:45:00.440 --> 0:45:02.359
<v Speaker 13>if not this evening. So that's really there's two other

0:45:02.400 --> 0:45:05.080
<v Speaker 13>avenues that we need to talk about. Versus the regulatory stuff.

0:45:05.360 --> 0:45:08.280
<v Speaker 13>You will probably see President Biden PUSH's regulators to finalize

0:45:08.280 --> 0:45:10.520
<v Speaker 13>their agenda as soon as possible. Now, this is going

0:45:10.600 --> 0:45:12.839
<v Speaker 13>to probably come after the Congressional Review Act date. I'll

0:45:12.840 --> 0:45:14.960
<v Speaker 13>spare the audience, but all just you need to know

0:45:15.160 --> 0:45:18.359
<v Speaker 13>is is that any regulation that's essentially finalized from now

0:45:18.400 --> 0:45:20.600
<v Speaker 13>until the end of the year could be overturned if

0:45:20.600 --> 0:45:22.960
<v Speaker 13>the Republicans win a House, the Senate, and the presidency.

0:45:23.160 --> 0:45:25.879
<v Speaker 13>But I would also intenicipate President Biden to look internationally.

0:45:26.120 --> 0:45:28.280
<v Speaker 13>So this is something that we've seen lame duck presidents.

0:45:28.320 --> 0:45:30.040
<v Speaker 13>Do you know President Obama did this in the last

0:45:30.040 --> 0:45:32.440
<v Speaker 13>two years of his term. President George W. Bush did

0:45:32.440 --> 0:45:34.040
<v Speaker 13>this in the last two years of the term. Because

0:45:34.040 --> 0:45:36.480
<v Speaker 13>when Capitol Hill looks at the White House and says, look,

0:45:36.640 --> 0:45:38.239
<v Speaker 13>I'm not going to stick my neck out for you

0:45:38.280 --> 0:45:39.960
<v Speaker 13>because you're not going to be here in six months,

0:45:40.200 --> 0:45:42.719
<v Speaker 13>you lose a lot of political capital. So the presidencies

0:45:42.840 --> 0:45:46.520
<v Speaker 13>often look internationally. So if President Biden has the situation,

0:45:46.640 --> 0:45:48.200
<v Speaker 13>I look, I know we're only three and a half year,

0:45:48.360 --> 0:45:50.680
<v Speaker 13>three and a half months till the election, approximately six

0:45:50.719 --> 0:45:52.800
<v Speaker 13>and a half months until we have a new president.

0:45:53.080 --> 0:45:55.400
<v Speaker 13>But I wouldn't be surprised if President Biden were to,

0:45:55.600 --> 0:45:57.759
<v Speaker 13>you know, take the Air Force one, if you will

0:45:58.040 --> 0:45:59.960
<v Speaker 13>fly abroad and spend a little bit more time over there,

0:46:00.680 --> 0:46:02.520
<v Speaker 13>just because the power of the presidency is a little

0:46:02.560 --> 0:46:04.600
<v Speaker 13>bit more powerful when it comes to international relations.

0:46:05.280 --> 0:46:08.800
<v Speaker 3>Nathan, do you have a good handle on what Kamala

0:46:08.840 --> 0:46:11.520
<v Speaker 3>Harris's policy preferences are? We were talking about trade, talking

0:46:11.520 --> 0:46:14.040
<v Speaker 3>about immigration. Obviously this was a big part of her remit.

0:46:14.080 --> 0:46:17.880
<v Speaker 3>But we're learning day by day more about the junior

0:46:17.920 --> 0:46:20.400
<v Speaker 3>senator from Ohio. The degree to which he's kind of

0:46:20.440 --> 0:46:22.480
<v Speaker 3>an enigma in the Republican Party. That was certainly in

0:46:22.520 --> 0:46:26.000
<v Speaker 3>stark relief during the course of that convention. The way

0:46:26.040 --> 0:46:29.440
<v Speaker 3>that things that he supports and espouses are very separate

0:46:29.480 --> 0:46:31.520
<v Speaker 3>and different from what we saw in Republicans a long

0:46:31.560 --> 0:46:36.960
<v Speaker 3>time ago. How much of Kamala Harris's policy biography is discreet,

0:46:37.120 --> 0:46:39.200
<v Speaker 3>is different from the man with whom she's serving. How

0:46:39.280 --> 0:46:40.560
<v Speaker 3>much do we know about that at this point?

0:46:41.120 --> 0:46:43.080
<v Speaker 13>So it's actually fairly light. I mean, all we're going

0:46:43.080 --> 0:46:45.440
<v Speaker 13>off of. We actually had an hour long call on

0:46:45.440 --> 0:46:47.560
<v Speaker 13>about this on Friday amongst the team going through all this,

0:46:47.640 --> 0:46:49.759
<v Speaker 13>and it's fairly light. You know, we have to go

0:46:49.760 --> 0:46:52.120
<v Speaker 13>back to our time. As Attorney General of California, she

0:46:52.239 --> 0:46:55.480
<v Speaker 13>participated in a twenty five billion dollar settlement against the

0:46:55.480 --> 0:46:57.879
<v Speaker 13>big banks like Bank of America, JP Morgan and Wells

0:46:57.960 --> 0:47:01.600
<v Speaker 13>Fargo on foreclosure practices. Now that was something that forty

0:47:01.680 --> 0:47:04.319
<v Speaker 13>seven other states and the District of Columbia went through.

0:47:04.360 --> 0:47:06.920
<v Speaker 13>But as her time of the Attorney General, she really

0:47:06.960 --> 0:47:11.200
<v Speaker 13>made a significant push on this idea of consumer protection,

0:47:11.320 --> 0:47:14.000
<v Speaker 13>especially when it comes to big business and this idea

0:47:14.000 --> 0:47:16.440
<v Speaker 13>of consumer protection. So we certainly think that if she

0:47:16.520 --> 0:47:18.799
<v Speaker 13>were to move forward and become the president, you could

0:47:18.800 --> 0:47:21.719
<v Speaker 13>see a push on things like offering student debt relief. Look,

0:47:22.200 --> 0:47:24.040
<v Speaker 13>you know, I'm not saying it's the other courts are

0:47:24.040 --> 0:47:26.040
<v Speaker 13>going to allow it, but certainly the president can do

0:47:26.160 --> 0:47:29.720
<v Speaker 13>that and say let's continuing with this type of relief.

0:47:30.000 --> 0:47:32.440
<v Speaker 13>But then as senator, you know from California, then you

0:47:32.520 --> 0:47:34.160
<v Speaker 13>become one of one hundred and it's a little bit

0:47:34.200 --> 0:47:37.160
<v Speaker 13>more difficult. But what I would say is is that overall,

0:47:37.520 --> 0:47:40.439
<v Speaker 13>you know, when President Biden came into office, we viewed

0:47:40.520 --> 0:47:43.160
<v Speaker 13>him as a centrist president, and we think that he

0:47:43.200 --> 0:47:47.040
<v Speaker 13>moved closer to Kamala Harris's policies than Kamala Harris did

0:47:47.080 --> 0:47:49.880
<v Speaker 13>moving to his policies. So I think the President Biden

0:47:49.920 --> 0:47:51.680
<v Speaker 13>policies that you have of today are going to be

0:47:51.760 --> 0:47:54.520
<v Speaker 13>very indicative of Kamala Harris if she were to win.

0:47:54.680 --> 0:47:58.080
<v Speaker 4>Nathan, thank you so much. Nathan Dean in Washington this

0:47:58.160 --> 0:48:02.680
<v Speaker 4>morning again reaction the world to a president who steps aside.

0:48:03.640 --> 0:48:05.400
<v Speaker 4>One headline that I saw, I believe that was the

0:48:05.520 --> 0:48:09.440
<v Speaker 4>Washington Post, our special covers Joe Matthew and Washington David

0:48:09.440 --> 0:48:12.719
<v Speaker 4>Gerr in New York, Tom Keene's special edition of Bloomberg

0:48:12.800 --> 0:48:18.000
<v Speaker 4>Surveillance Joe Matthew stealed for a five PM Balance of Power,

0:48:18.040 --> 0:48:21.680
<v Speaker 4>which we hope to see as well. Joe, you were

0:48:21.680 --> 0:48:26.040
<v Speaker 4>weaned on Massachusetts politics and one of the great things

0:48:26.080 --> 0:48:30.759
<v Speaker 4>of Massachusetts politics is there were Republicans and Democrats in

0:48:30.800 --> 0:48:34.719
<v Speaker 4>the middle. From where you sit, Joe Matthew, is anybody

0:48:34.719 --> 0:48:38.400
<v Speaker 4>out there on this Sunday afternoon, this Sunday edge of evening,

0:48:38.800 --> 0:48:40.479
<v Speaker 4>is anybody in the middle? Boy?

0:48:40.640 --> 0:48:43.240
<v Speaker 12>Well, if you mean in the middle between Kamala Harris

0:48:43.280 --> 0:48:45.280
<v Speaker 12>and somebody else, I think that might be a question

0:48:45.320 --> 0:48:48.080
<v Speaker 12>in the middle politically, I don't know. Do you think

0:48:48.120 --> 0:48:50.480
<v Speaker 12>Seth Moulton, who was one of the first I think

0:48:50.560 --> 0:48:55.760
<v Speaker 12>number three Democrat in Congress north Shore of Massachusetts Salem

0:48:55.760 --> 0:48:57.960
<v Speaker 12>who actually called on Joe Biden to step down and

0:48:57.960 --> 0:49:00.960
<v Speaker 12>called for a new generation. Yeah, remembering he was blackballed

0:49:00.960 --> 0:49:02.840
<v Speaker 12>by many in the Democratic Party when he tried to

0:49:02.880 --> 0:49:06.600
<v Speaker 12>run against Nancy Pelosi. But Middle I don't think is

0:49:06.640 --> 0:49:08.640
<v Speaker 12>going to get you through a primary cycle here, which

0:49:08.680 --> 0:49:10.600
<v Speaker 12>this feels like a lot, although I will point out

0:49:10.680 --> 0:49:14.720
<v Speaker 12>this is pretty important. Gretchen Whitmer and now the governor

0:49:14.760 --> 0:49:18.520
<v Speaker 12>of California, Gavin Newsom, say they will not challenge Kamala Harris.

0:49:18.560 --> 0:49:20.239
<v Speaker 4>This is going to come. So it's moving in real time.

0:49:20.440 --> 0:49:22.879
<v Speaker 4>I root for all of you nationwide. David is doing

0:49:22.920 --> 0:49:25.719
<v Speaker 4>a much better job. Joe lives stuff. I mean, we're

0:49:25.719 --> 0:49:28.680
<v Speaker 4>not like Joe, but David, it's moving in real time

0:49:29.160 --> 0:49:29.720
<v Speaker 4>by this effect.

0:49:29.760 --> 0:49:31.600
<v Speaker 3>And I'd love to get Joe's perspective on this. I mean,

0:49:31.600 --> 0:49:33.560
<v Speaker 3>Tom asked me, Joe sort of what stood out to

0:49:33.600 --> 0:49:35.480
<v Speaker 3>me about the way that this has been playing out,

0:49:35.480 --> 0:49:37.640
<v Speaker 3>and I said, yes, it was that this was done

0:49:37.640 --> 0:49:39.360
<v Speaker 3>in a letter and then we had the endorsement in

0:49:39.400 --> 0:49:41.440
<v Speaker 3>short order and a tweet following that. But it has

0:49:41.480 --> 0:49:45.600
<v Speaker 3>been the kind of mounting quantity of knock on endorsements

0:49:45.600 --> 0:49:47.400
<v Speaker 3>that we've seen from members of Congress, and I'd love

0:49:47.440 --> 0:49:49.160
<v Speaker 3>to just hear perspective on that. Joe how quickly this

0:49:49.160 --> 0:49:50.680
<v Speaker 3>has happened, and what it says to you about the

0:49:50.680 --> 0:49:54.080
<v Speaker 3>Democratic parties willing is here as I see it to Galvin,

0:49:54.160 --> 0:49:56.160
<v Speaker 3>I as an orient itself around Kamala Harris.

0:49:56.880 --> 0:49:58.640
<v Speaker 12>Well, it's not like they didn't have time to prepare

0:49:58.680 --> 0:50:01.000
<v Speaker 12>for this. Apps and knowing that the phone calls were happening,

0:50:01.360 --> 0:50:06.440
<v Speaker 12>the most important ones I've seen here CBC, CCHC. The

0:50:06.560 --> 0:50:10.200
<v Speaker 12>last holdout was Jim Clyburn. You've got the Congressional Black

0:50:10.200 --> 0:50:14.200
<v Speaker 12>Caucus now endorsing Harris with gratitude to Joe Biden. A

0:50:14.239 --> 0:50:17.120
<v Speaker 12>great debt of gratitude, says the statement of the Congressional

0:50:17.200 --> 0:50:21.239
<v Speaker 12>Hispanic Caucus chair now doing exactly the same here on X.

0:50:21.280 --> 0:50:24.120
<v Speaker 12>So this this feels kind of like a coronation. But guys,

0:50:24.160 --> 0:50:26.680
<v Speaker 12>you know, I have to admit I've been pushing back

0:50:26.719 --> 0:50:28.640
<v Speaker 12>on a lot of this conversation over the last week

0:50:28.800 --> 0:50:30.719
<v Speaker 12>because this is I thought, why we had a vice

0:50:30.760 --> 0:50:33.400
<v Speaker 12>president whoever heard of blowing up the whole thing a

0:50:33.400 --> 0:50:36.160
<v Speaker 12>couple of weeks before a convention when you actually have

0:50:36.280 --> 0:50:38.359
<v Speaker 12>someone in waiting who shares the delegates and the money.

0:50:38.360 --> 0:50:40.440
<v Speaker 12>To your point earlier, Tom, it does seem like that

0:50:40.600 --> 0:50:42.759
<v Speaker 12>would have created an enormous a voice and would have

0:50:42.840 --> 0:50:44.400
<v Speaker 12>insulted a lot of people.

0:50:44.480 --> 0:50:48.160
<v Speaker 3>Absolutely, you're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance.

0:50:48.280 --> 0:50:51.600
<v Speaker 3>I'm David Durou with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Plenty ahead.

0:50:51.960 --> 0:50:53.080
<v Speaker 3>This has been.

0:51:03.000 --> 0:51:06.680
<v Speaker 2>Welcome back to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance from

0:51:06.719 --> 0:51:07.680
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Radio.

0:51:08.239 --> 0:51:11.160
<v Speaker 3>You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm

0:51:11.239 --> 0:51:14.279
<v Speaker 3>David Dura with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking news

0:51:14.280 --> 0:51:18.200
<v Speaker 3>this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid, Biden

0:51:18.320 --> 0:51:21.040
<v Speaker 3>saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed Vice

0:51:21.080 --> 0:51:24.920
<v Speaker 3>President Kamala Harris to take his place as the Democratic nominee.

0:51:25.600 --> 0:51:29.160
<v Speaker 4>Joining us now is can I just say my favorite

0:51:29.239 --> 0:51:33.400
<v Speaker 4>Henrietta Trees is just absolutely fabulous at Veda partners with

0:51:33.560 --> 0:51:37.440
<v Speaker 4>encyclopedic knowledge of Capitol Hill. Because this is not just

0:51:37.520 --> 0:51:41.480
<v Speaker 4>about the presidential election, It's about a landslide. Is the

0:51:41.520 --> 0:51:45.920
<v Speaker 4>Republican speak of a Republican House, a Republican Senate with

0:51:46.000 --> 0:51:49.920
<v Speaker 4>mister Trump on term two, I would note Henrietta Trees

0:51:50.000 --> 0:51:53.160
<v Speaker 4>and thank you for joining Joe Matthew, David Gura and myself,

0:51:53.640 --> 0:51:57.160
<v Speaker 4>Jessica Taylor over at to cook political report, writing up

0:51:57.200 --> 0:52:01.600
<v Speaker 4>a single headline only days ago, Michigan Senate moves to

0:52:01.600 --> 0:52:06.880
<v Speaker 4>toss up as Democrats tied to defy political gravity. You

0:52:06.920 --> 0:52:10.880
<v Speaker 4>are expert on houses in Senate. Does does this news

0:52:10.920 --> 0:52:15.520
<v Speaker 4>today make it less likely of a landslide? I would

0:52:15.520 --> 0:52:17.040
<v Speaker 4>say a Republican landslide.

0:52:18.200 --> 0:52:22.120
<v Speaker 14>Yes, thank you for having me the feelings mutual. Yes, absolutely,

0:52:22.120 --> 0:52:25.680
<v Speaker 14>this makes it less of a landslide. American voters and

0:52:25.719 --> 0:52:29.040
<v Speaker 14>in particular Democrats, have been primed for this chaos for

0:52:29.160 --> 0:52:32.120
<v Speaker 14>months now. They knew it well before the sort of

0:52:32.120 --> 0:52:34.880
<v Speaker 14>elites of the party got on board and started calling

0:52:34.880 --> 0:52:37.279
<v Speaker 14>for President Biden to step aside and not run for

0:52:37.320 --> 0:52:42.120
<v Speaker 14>a second term. The American public has disproportionately large support

0:52:42.280 --> 0:52:47.319
<v Speaker 14>for the Senate candidates, including in Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania,

0:52:47.520 --> 0:52:51.080
<v Speaker 14>you know, even Montana, than anything that President Biden was

0:52:51.080 --> 0:52:53.160
<v Speaker 14>doing at the top of the ticket. So his decision,

0:52:53.239 --> 0:52:57.640
<v Speaker 14>his sort of magnanimous and enormous decision to step aside

0:52:57.760 --> 0:53:00.680
<v Speaker 14>and put Kamala at the front up a race for

0:53:00.760 --> 0:53:04.320
<v Speaker 14>the vice presidential ticket, opens up a debate about which

0:53:04.400 --> 0:53:06.320
<v Speaker 14>direction the party is going to go on the electoral

0:53:06.320 --> 0:53:08.840
<v Speaker 14>college front. And what's interesting to me is that you know,

0:53:08.880 --> 0:53:11.760
<v Speaker 14>Trump is ahead by four and a half points in Pennsylvania.

0:53:11.880 --> 0:53:15.040
<v Speaker 14>Biden and Kamala Harris have been doing very well in

0:53:15.080 --> 0:53:18.800
<v Speaker 14>Michigan and Wisconsin comparatively, but the next closest states in

0:53:18.920 --> 0:53:22.080
<v Speaker 14>line are Georgia and then just not too far after that,

0:53:22.200 --> 0:53:25.320
<v Speaker 14>North Carolina. I wouldn't be surprised if the whole Democratic

0:53:25.440 --> 0:53:29.279
<v Speaker 14>Party strategy shifts to more of a southern direction. I'm

0:53:29.320 --> 0:53:32.000
<v Speaker 14>especially just about to publish the electoral college map if

0:53:32.040 --> 0:53:35.480
<v Speaker 14>they lose Nevada and Arizona, which they could pick it

0:53:35.560 --> 0:53:37.080
<v Speaker 14>up still if they win North Carolina.

0:53:37.120 --> 0:53:39.239
<v Speaker 4>And we're sick about this, David Gurrs, I first heard

0:53:39.280 --> 0:53:41.919
<v Speaker 4>that from Joe Matthew. Yes, it's just incredible how that works.

0:53:41.960 --> 0:53:44.439
<v Speaker 3>We've been parroting the Roy Cooper line numerous times, Joe

0:53:44.480 --> 0:53:47.960
<v Speaker 3>over the course over the course of these two hours, Henryette,

0:53:47.960 --> 0:53:50.120
<v Speaker 3>I want to ask you about what happened in March

0:53:50.120 --> 0:53:52.160
<v Speaker 3>of twenty twenty one. That is, when Joe Biden said

0:53:52.160 --> 0:53:54.680
<v Speaker 3>to Kamala Harris, I'm naming you the borders are You're

0:53:54.719 --> 0:53:58.160
<v Speaker 3>going to have responsibility for the US Mexico border and

0:53:58.239 --> 0:54:00.680
<v Speaker 3>policy they're going forward this This is going to be

0:54:00.760 --> 0:54:03.120
<v Speaker 3>something that the specter of this decision is going to

0:54:03.160 --> 0:54:04.759
<v Speaker 3>come out pretty quickly, and they're going to use it

0:54:04.760 --> 0:54:07.120
<v Speaker 3>against her. How does she push back on that? You

0:54:07.160 --> 0:54:09.840
<v Speaker 3>look at what's happened here in recent months, the number

0:54:09.880 --> 0:54:12.480
<v Speaker 3>of border guard interactions with folks crossing the border has

0:54:12.520 --> 0:54:15.360
<v Speaker 3>gone down. There has been progress here. How much is

0:54:15.400 --> 0:54:18.040
<v Speaker 3>that going to stick with the electorate. How effectively do

0:54:18.080 --> 0:54:19.759
<v Speaker 3>you think the Trump campaign would be able to use

0:54:19.800 --> 0:54:22.400
<v Speaker 3>that against Kamala Harris if indeed she is the nominee

0:54:22.440 --> 0:54:23.080
<v Speaker 3>here going forward.

0:54:24.360 --> 0:54:28.120
<v Speaker 14>It's fascinating voter opinion where they have immigration is the

0:54:28.160 --> 0:54:31.720
<v Speaker 14>number one issue. These are disproportionately white, male, middle aged

0:54:31.840 --> 0:54:33.759
<v Speaker 14>voters who are going to be in the Trump camp.

0:54:33.800 --> 0:54:36.960
<v Speaker 14>I think no matter what Democrats convey or Kamala Harris

0:54:37.000 --> 0:54:39.600
<v Speaker 14>conveys about the facts on the ground, I've been marketing,

0:54:39.600 --> 0:54:41.960
<v Speaker 14>you know, obviously, all the time since February.

0:54:42.360 --> 0:54:45.240
<v Speaker 6>And one of the most striking things the constant.

0:54:44.960 --> 0:54:48.520
<v Speaker 14>Request I get for information after our meetings is whenever

0:54:48.560 --> 0:54:51.560
<v Speaker 14>I say, you know, border crossings are down fifty four percent,

0:54:51.600 --> 0:54:54.319
<v Speaker 14>they're down forty percent. They're now at the lowest point

0:54:54.360 --> 0:54:57.440
<v Speaker 14>they have been even since before Biden took office, and

0:54:57.520 --> 0:55:00.200
<v Speaker 14>everybody has to fact check that because it sounds so

0:55:00.760 --> 0:55:03.799
<v Speaker 14>disjointed from what we hear either at the RNC or

0:55:03.880 --> 0:55:05.360
<v Speaker 14>you for the last four years.

0:55:05.600 --> 0:55:07.880
<v Speaker 6>So I think that there's a big education.

0:55:07.600 --> 0:55:11.120
<v Speaker 14>Process that the Kamala Harris and whoever her VP is

0:55:11.160 --> 0:55:14.279
<v Speaker 14>going to be next and President Biden to explain that

0:55:14.320 --> 0:55:17.880
<v Speaker 14>in the last six months they have gotten immigration crossings

0:55:17.920 --> 0:55:20.600
<v Speaker 14>at the border below the level of even when they

0:55:20.640 --> 0:55:23.120
<v Speaker 14>took office. So that message is going to have to

0:55:23.120 --> 0:55:25.920
<v Speaker 14>get across, for sure, mostly to Democratic voters, and I

0:55:25.920 --> 0:55:29.440
<v Speaker 14>would also say suburban white voters like those in Indiana

0:55:29.480 --> 0:55:31.759
<v Speaker 14>who have voted twenty two percent for Nikki Hayley just

0:55:31.800 --> 0:55:35.560
<v Speaker 14>a few weeks back. Land.

0:55:35.680 --> 0:55:37.839
<v Speaker 12>You back to this tweet from jd Vance that has

0:55:37.840 --> 0:55:40.200
<v Speaker 12>a lot of us talking in the wake of Milwaukee,

0:55:40.200 --> 0:55:42.799
<v Speaker 12>where we heard from a number of Republican lawmakers who

0:55:42.880 --> 0:55:45.560
<v Speaker 12>said there's no way that if Joe Biden drops out

0:55:45.600 --> 0:55:47.839
<v Speaker 12>of this race, he can continue serving out the rest

0:55:47.840 --> 0:55:51.000
<v Speaker 12>of this term. Jd Vance saying there is no middle

0:55:51.040 --> 0:55:53.960
<v Speaker 12>ground running for reelection would be a clear admission that

0:55:54.040 --> 0:55:56.720
<v Speaker 12>Trump was right all along about Biden not being mentally

0:55:56.719 --> 0:55:59.600
<v Speaker 12>fit enough to serve as commander in chief. Donald Trump

0:55:59.640 --> 0:56:02.839
<v Speaker 12>puts on truth social following the news today Crooked Joe

0:56:02.880 --> 0:56:05.040
<v Speaker 12>just got knocked out. So now I'll have to do

0:56:05.120 --> 0:56:08.120
<v Speaker 12>it a fourth time. I guess my question is, how

0:56:08.239 --> 0:56:10.560
<v Speaker 12>likely is it if Donald Trump wins another term, will

0:56:10.600 --> 0:56:12.800
<v Speaker 12>he be the forty seventh or forty eighth president.

0:56:15.680 --> 0:56:18.400
<v Speaker 14>I would say if he were to win another term,

0:56:18.680 --> 0:56:20.000
<v Speaker 14>it would be this next time around.

0:56:20.040 --> 0:56:20.920
<v Speaker 6>If that's what you're getting at.

0:56:20.960 --> 0:56:23.040
<v Speaker 14>I mean, I do think it's a false construct to

0:56:23.120 --> 0:56:25.640
<v Speaker 14>come in the way that Jadie Vance does in his

0:56:25.640 --> 0:56:27.520
<v Speaker 14>tweet and say, you know, Biden need But could we.

0:56:27.520 --> 0:56:30.280
<v Speaker 12>Be in a world in which Kamala Harris finds herself

0:56:30.320 --> 0:56:33.920
<v Speaker 12>president of the United States before November and then Donald

0:56:33.920 --> 0:56:35.680
<v Speaker 12>Trump serves another term?

0:56:35.840 --> 0:56:38.719
<v Speaker 14>No, No, I mean, first of all, the challenger doesn't

0:56:38.719 --> 0:56:40.719
<v Speaker 14>get to dictate the terms of the boots on the

0:56:40.719 --> 0:56:44.000
<v Speaker 14>ground reality. Brden is president. There is not another election

0:56:44.080 --> 0:56:46.480
<v Speaker 14>between now and then. Kamala is not gonna, you know,

0:56:46.520 --> 0:56:48.319
<v Speaker 14>step in and you surp his role. This is why

0:56:48.320 --> 0:56:50.719
<v Speaker 14>there's succession, as you just discussed, you know, this is

0:56:50.719 --> 0:56:53.200
<v Speaker 14>what it says in the constitution. So he finishes his term,

0:56:53.280 --> 0:56:56.160
<v Speaker 14>he's not running for another term, and he's decided that

0:56:56.239 --> 0:56:57.880
<v Speaker 14>he's going to endorse Kamala and we'll go through the

0:56:57.880 --> 0:57:00.640
<v Speaker 14>process of the DNC. But no, I don't expect Biden

0:57:00.680 --> 0:57:02.040
<v Speaker 14>to step down. And I think it's a sort of

0:57:02.040 --> 0:57:04.719
<v Speaker 14>a false construct to think that the challenger has any

0:57:04.760 --> 0:57:06.359
<v Speaker 14>say in who the current president is.

0:57:07.680 --> 0:57:10.279
<v Speaker 12>Not to suggest as much, but Joe Biden might find

0:57:10.280 --> 0:57:12.280
<v Speaker 12>that he cannot finish out the rest of this term.

0:57:12.440 --> 0:57:15.040
<v Speaker 12>Kamala Harris would then have to step in. Donald Trump

0:57:15.080 --> 0:57:17.480
<v Speaker 12>could still win the election. I guess I'm just wondering

0:57:17.480 --> 0:57:19.400
<v Speaker 12>if we should all be calling, you know, talking about

0:57:19.560 --> 0:57:22.120
<v Speaker 12>the possibility of Trump forty seven when it could be

0:57:22.200 --> 0:57:24.720
<v Speaker 12>forty eight. What makes you so sure Joe Biden can

0:57:24.760 --> 0:57:25.640
<v Speaker 12>finish out the rest.

0:57:25.520 --> 0:57:26.040
<v Speaker 4>Of his term.

0:57:26.960 --> 0:57:30.480
<v Speaker 14>Well, I'm not his healthcare provider or anything along those lines,

0:57:30.840 --> 0:57:37.320
<v Speaker 14>but I don't think that a groundswell push that has

0:57:37.360 --> 0:57:40.680
<v Speaker 14>successfully gotten him to not run for a second term

0:57:40.720 --> 0:57:43.640
<v Speaker 14>would be effective in trying to get him to resign quickly.

0:57:43.840 --> 0:57:47.080
<v Speaker 14>That's not what the Democratic Party is asking for, That's

0:57:47.120 --> 0:57:48.560
<v Speaker 14>not what the delegates are asking for.

0:57:49.200 --> 0:57:50.440
<v Speaker 6>So I'm not expecting.

0:57:50.760 --> 0:57:52.800
<v Speaker 4>David Gerry, have you seen any more news here, any

0:57:52.840 --> 0:57:55.200
<v Speaker 4>more comments from people I see? I'm watching Fox here

0:57:55.240 --> 0:57:57.800
<v Speaker 4>with our great TV setup here, it's going to be

0:57:57.960 --> 0:58:01.720
<v Speaker 4>fascinating to see the response of the Republicans all this.

0:58:01.800 --> 0:58:03.960
<v Speaker 4>Have you seen any new colors too?

0:58:04.040 --> 0:58:06.520
<v Speaker 3>And see my eye drifting over to Fox News where

0:58:06.520 --> 0:58:08.880
<v Speaker 3>the Chiron was saying Democrats divided. And I will say

0:58:08.880 --> 0:58:11.520
<v Speaker 3>from all that I've read the great summary that we've

0:58:11.520 --> 0:58:14.200
<v Speaker 3>gotten on our top live blog on the Bloomberg, it

0:58:14.240 --> 0:58:16.800
<v Speaker 3>doesn't seem like there is a ton of division within

0:58:16.800 --> 0:58:18.560
<v Speaker 3>the Democrats who have waited on this. Yes, there were

0:58:18.600 --> 0:58:22.160
<v Speaker 3>some like Governor Evers who were withholding an explicit nomination,

0:58:22.280 --> 0:58:24.800
<v Speaker 3>but a lot of people getting in line and endorsing

0:58:24.840 --> 0:58:26.800
<v Speaker 3>Kamala Harris as the nominee.

0:58:26.840 --> 0:58:27.120
<v Speaker 4>I see.

0:58:27.120 --> 0:58:29.480
<v Speaker 3>You know we spoke earlier about President Clinton and Secretary

0:58:29.560 --> 0:58:34.160
<v Speaker 3>Clinton endorsing Kamala Harris in a joint statement. Another married couple,

0:58:34.200 --> 0:58:37.160
<v Speaker 3>Senator Kelly and Gabby Gifford's doing the same thing as well.

0:58:37.200 --> 0:58:38.960
<v Speaker 3>Senator Kelly is somebody we were talking about a little

0:58:39.000 --> 0:58:40.800
<v Speaker 3>earlier on the show as somebody who could be seen

0:58:40.800 --> 0:58:45.720
<v Speaker 3>as a potential nominee, somebody who former astronaut, maybe combat pilot.

0:58:46.360 --> 0:58:48.360
<v Speaker 3>Could he be somebody who woud seek the presidency?

0:58:48.680 --> 0:58:50.760
<v Speaker 4>Yeah? But can he take Pennsylvania.

0:58:50.880 --> 0:58:55.120
<v Speaker 3>Well, he indicating he's no longer no longer interested in

0:58:55.160 --> 0:58:55.480
<v Speaker 3>doing that.

0:58:56.040 --> 0:58:56.280
<v Speaker 4>Yeah.

0:58:56.360 --> 0:58:59.160
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, But to that point, Henrietta, let me ask you

0:58:59.400 --> 0:59:01.160
<v Speaker 3>sort of who you're looking at as we kind of

0:59:01.160 --> 0:59:03.840
<v Speaker 3>look at all of these names and statements coming out here,

0:59:04.160 --> 0:59:05.880
<v Speaker 3>who do you want to hear from? And Joe mentioning

0:59:05.960 --> 0:59:08.280
<v Speaker 3>just moments ago the importance of hearing from Jim Clyburn,

0:59:08.320 --> 0:59:11.840
<v Speaker 3>who essentially annointed Joe Biden to winning the nomination the

0:59:11.920 --> 0:59:14.120
<v Speaker 3>last time around. Are there any that you haven't heard

0:59:14.160 --> 0:59:16.000
<v Speaker 3>from yet? Who do you think is that has the

0:59:16.000 --> 0:59:19.160
<v Speaker 3>most signal importance here as we put together those endorsements

0:59:19.160 --> 0:59:20.200
<v Speaker 3>in the coming hours.

0:59:21.120 --> 0:59:24.200
<v Speaker 14>Well, I didn't realize it was such common understanding already,

0:59:24.200 --> 0:59:25.840
<v Speaker 14>But I do think that a lot of attention to

0:59:26.000 --> 0:59:28.880
<v Speaker 14>be paid on North Carolina and Georgia right now, and

0:59:28.920 --> 0:59:34.800
<v Speaker 14>that strategy Arizona would be a fantastic thing to be

0:59:34.840 --> 0:59:37.680
<v Speaker 14>able to keep in your back pocket for the Democratic Party.

0:59:37.680 --> 0:59:40.880
<v Speaker 14>But if you're following it all the primary data and

0:59:40.920 --> 0:59:44.760
<v Speaker 14>the voting registration and responses coming in there now, which

0:59:44.800 --> 0:59:47.960
<v Speaker 14>is being published weekly, Republicans are far and away ahead

0:59:47.960 --> 0:59:48.640
<v Speaker 14>in Arizona.

0:59:48.720 --> 0:59:51.080
<v Speaker 6>So when you look at the in just as the

0:59:51.120 --> 0:59:51.840
<v Speaker 6>case in Nevada.

0:59:51.920 --> 0:59:53.760
<v Speaker 14>So as you look at who could be the vice

0:59:53.800 --> 0:59:56.640
<v Speaker 14>presidential nominee, you know, a Roy Cooper kind of name

0:59:56.680 --> 0:59:59.320
<v Speaker 14>in North Carolina makes a lot more sense than a

0:59:59.400 --> 1:00:02.400
<v Speaker 14>Mark Kelly. If they're going to pursue that strategy, which

1:00:02.400 --> 1:00:06.120
<v Speaker 14>I assume they would, I wouldn't anticipate Raphael Warnock being involved,

1:00:06.120 --> 1:00:09.600
<v Speaker 14>but I do think that it's really a concentration on

1:00:09.640 --> 1:00:11.760
<v Speaker 14>the swing states. It's my expectation that you're not going

1:00:11.800 --> 1:00:13.360
<v Speaker 14>to see two women on the tickets, so that takes

1:00:13.440 --> 1:00:15.800
<v Speaker 14>Gretch and Whitmer off the table, even though Michigan would

1:00:15.800 --> 1:00:18.880
<v Speaker 14>be very nice to have some additional shoring up. But

1:00:18.960 --> 1:00:23.320
<v Speaker 14>Shapiro in Pennsylvania also makes sense. Pritzker and Illinois has

1:00:23.320 --> 1:00:25.560
<v Speaker 14>talked about a lot, but my personal focus for the

1:00:25.560 --> 1:00:27.280
<v Speaker 14>next couple weeks is going to be on North Carolina

1:00:27.360 --> 1:00:29.160
<v Speaker 14>and Georgia, and I assume that's the direction.

1:00:28.880 --> 1:00:32.080
<v Speaker 12>They're going to go with good reason, Henrietta. When you

1:00:32.120 --> 1:00:34.280
<v Speaker 12>consider the next three weeks, typically you'd want to roll

1:00:34.320 --> 1:00:36.840
<v Speaker 12>out something like this as soon as you can. Following

1:00:36.840 --> 1:00:40.880
<v Speaker 12>your opponent's political convention. The RNC is behind us, Donald

1:00:40.920 --> 1:00:44.400
<v Speaker 12>Trump and JD Vance are already traveling together. How sure.

1:00:44.640 --> 1:00:47.280
<v Speaker 12>Does this ticket need to be before we get into

1:00:47.360 --> 1:00:50.080
<v Speaker 12>Chicago or will this running be decided there?

1:00:51.680 --> 1:00:53.280
<v Speaker 6>I don't think it needs to be sure at all.

1:00:53.320 --> 1:00:56.480
<v Speaker 14>I mean, think of Trump announcing Jadie Vance on Monday

1:00:56.720 --> 1:00:59.040
<v Speaker 14>of the convention. You know, it really doesn't be for

1:00:59.080 --> 1:01:01.640
<v Speaker 14>a few more weeks. Certainly the delegates are going to

1:01:01.640 --> 1:01:04.080
<v Speaker 14>be meeting the Roles Committee and all those groups, but

1:01:04.360 --> 1:01:06.080
<v Speaker 14>you don't need to have a nominee for a while.

1:01:06.240 --> 1:01:08.280
<v Speaker 6>But what I would encourage investors to think about is

1:01:08.280 --> 1:01:08.920
<v Speaker 6>that Trump is.

1:01:08.880 --> 1:01:11.240
<v Speaker 14>At very high numbers in the polls right now, well

1:01:11.280 --> 1:01:14.080
<v Speaker 14>above where he has been leading Biden in all year,

1:01:14.440 --> 1:01:17.800
<v Speaker 14>thirty four points five or six in some states. So

1:01:17.960 --> 1:01:20.240
<v Speaker 14>ask yourself sort of the trajectory of what's going to

1:01:20.280 --> 1:01:22.720
<v Speaker 14>happen from here. We have of all the names we

1:01:22.840 --> 1:01:25.480
<v Speaker 14>just listed on the shortlist for VP, almost none of

1:01:25.560 --> 1:01:28.560
<v Speaker 14>them have written name recognition that's above fifty percent. So

1:01:28.920 --> 1:01:31.480
<v Speaker 14>there's going to be a tremendous amount of focus on

1:01:31.520 --> 1:01:34.400
<v Speaker 14>this seismic event because it is so massive to sort

1:01:34.400 --> 1:01:37.160
<v Speaker 14>of the process of democracy, and that's naturally going to

1:01:37.200 --> 1:01:41.080
<v Speaker 14>attach attract eyeballs. What we're going to see is massive

1:01:41.160 --> 1:01:44.240
<v Speaker 14>name recognition shift the polls. I think pretty materially my

1:01:44.360 --> 1:01:46.440
<v Speaker 14>expectation as we start off at a deficit, I'm going

1:01:46.520 --> 1:01:48.520
<v Speaker 14>to start treating Trump as though he is the incumbent

1:01:48.800 --> 1:01:51.240
<v Speaker 14>because he's been president for you know, it's obviously a

1:01:51.240 --> 1:01:52.680
<v Speaker 14>little bit of a gray area. So I'm going to

1:01:52.680 --> 1:01:56.080
<v Speaker 14>see want to see Kamala above try out by three

1:01:56.200 --> 1:01:58.320
<v Speaker 14>or four points in these swing states in order to

1:01:58.480 --> 1:02:01.320
<v Speaker 14>think that she could reasonably win them. That's going to

1:02:01.320 --> 1:02:02.960
<v Speaker 14>be the strategy. I think poling is going to move

1:02:03.000 --> 1:02:04.760
<v Speaker 14>a lot in the next couple of weeks, which.

1:02:06.960 --> 1:02:09.720
<v Speaker 4>Henrietta, you and Terryans have been just great about that.

1:02:09.880 --> 1:02:13.560
<v Speaker 4>I'm really interested in what the polls show. Henrietta Trey's

1:02:13.720 --> 1:02:16.440
<v Speaker 4>Vada partner somehow. I think we'll speak tomorrow. Thank you

1:02:16.520 --> 1:02:19.320
<v Speaker 4>so much for being with this.

1:02:19.680 --> 1:02:22.560
<v Speaker 3>You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm

1:02:22.600 --> 1:02:24.640
<v Speaker 3>David Dura with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew.

1:02:25.120 --> 1:02:25.680
<v Speaker 4>We you ahead.

1:02:26.080 --> 1:02:38.640
<v Speaker 2>This is Believe. Welcome back to a special edition of

1:02:38.680 --> 1:02:41.280
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Surveillance from Bloomberg Radio.

1:02:41.920 --> 1:02:44.880
<v Speaker 3>You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm

1:02:44.960 --> 1:02:48.000
<v Speaker 3>David Dua with Tom Keen and Joe Matthew. Breaking News

1:02:48.000 --> 1:02:51.240
<v Speaker 3>this afternoon, President Joe Biden abandoned his re election bid,

1:02:51.560 --> 1:02:54.480
<v Speaker 3>Biden saying he would serve out his term, but endorsed

1:02:54.520 --> 1:02:57.400
<v Speaker 3>Vice President Kamala Harris to take his place as the

1:02:57.400 --> 1:02:58.600
<v Speaker 3>Democratic nominee.

1:02:58.880 --> 1:03:02.280
<v Speaker 4>Let us listen Thursday to the vice President of the

1:03:02.400 --> 1:03:03.760
<v Speaker 4>United States.

1:03:03.520 --> 1:03:06.840
<v Speaker 15>Donald Trump were to win in November. He will continue

1:03:06.880 --> 1:03:11.720
<v Speaker 15>to sell out working families, he will continue to attack

1:03:11.960 --> 1:03:21.240
<v Speaker 15>reproductive freedom, and he will continue to undermine our democracy.

1:03:21.320 --> 1:03:24.760
<v Speaker 4>The Vice President of the United States here on this

1:03:25.040 --> 1:03:27.240
<v Speaker 4>very special Sunday that was done a few days ago.

1:03:27.360 --> 1:03:30.400
<v Speaker 4>Joe Matthew, your thoughts here as we move up towards

1:03:30.440 --> 1:03:31.400
<v Speaker 4>your balance of power.

1:03:31.720 --> 1:03:34.240
<v Speaker 12>We heard from JD Vance a short time ago. This

1:03:34.320 --> 1:03:37.120
<v Speaker 12>is the latest since the decision. Joe Biden has been

1:03:37.120 --> 1:03:39.560
<v Speaker 12>the worst president in my lifetime. In Kamala Harris right

1:03:39.600 --> 1:03:41.600
<v Speaker 12>there with him every step of the way. This is

1:03:41.640 --> 1:03:44.360
<v Speaker 12>going to be the message here that nothing has changed.

1:03:44.800 --> 1:03:47.240
<v Speaker 12>Remember what we talked about in Milwaukee. This is the

1:03:47.320 --> 1:03:50.080
<v Speaker 12>same person with a different name. Wait for her to

1:03:50.120 --> 1:03:52.000
<v Speaker 12>show up at the debate with Donald Trump, which I

1:03:52.000 --> 1:03:54.160
<v Speaker 12>will submit is going to be a lot more challenging

1:03:54.200 --> 1:03:56.080
<v Speaker 12>for him than the one he just went through. What

1:03:56.160 --> 1:03:58.919
<v Speaker 12>the line from the Republican Party is what you see

1:03:58.920 --> 1:04:01.240
<v Speaker 12>here is the same as well, you had. We just

1:04:01.360 --> 1:04:03.360
<v Speaker 12>beat Joe Biden. Now we have to do it again

1:04:03.400 --> 1:04:04.280
<v Speaker 12>with Kamala Harris.

1:04:04.520 --> 1:04:06.240
<v Speaker 3>Picking up on something you mentioned there, Joe, I mean,

1:04:06.280 --> 1:04:08.800
<v Speaker 3>I look back at the interview that Bloomberg BusinessWeek did

1:04:08.800 --> 1:04:11.080
<v Speaker 3>with Donald Trump. He said this very explicitly. I think

1:04:11.080 --> 1:04:13.680
<v Speaker 3>they asked him in that interview, Nancy Cook, Bradstone and

1:04:13.920 --> 1:04:16.120
<v Speaker 3>our other colleagues asking him sort of what difference it

1:04:16.160 --> 1:04:19.080
<v Speaker 3>would make if the nominee wasn't going to be Joe Biden.

1:04:19.080 --> 1:04:21.360
<v Speaker 3>And what he said was effectively, the campaign is the same.

1:04:21.800 --> 1:04:23.720
<v Speaker 3>The way that they plan on waging this is the same.

1:04:23.760 --> 1:04:26.720
<v Speaker 3>And Tom, I think that'll be fascinating to see how

1:04:26.760 --> 1:04:28.520
<v Speaker 3>true that is here as we move ahead.

1:04:28.720 --> 1:04:31.880
<v Speaker 4>Joining us right now on Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg Radio, and

1:04:31.920 --> 1:04:35.960
<v Speaker 4>on YouTube. Is the most important person for us and Washington.

1:04:36.080 --> 1:04:39.600
<v Speaker 4>She's Margaret Collins. She's the one that takes care of

1:04:39.600 --> 1:04:42.240
<v Speaker 4>me and Washington gets me through the day somehow, and

1:04:42.320 --> 1:04:45.680
<v Speaker 4>herds cats to the tune of any really David any

1:04:45.880 --> 1:04:49.480
<v Speaker 4>Washington News bureau. The person running the news bureau. It's

1:04:49.520 --> 1:04:50.800
<v Speaker 4>like the worst job at any.

1:04:50.640 --> 1:04:52.720
<v Speaker 3>News Oh, it's a big job. I'll say that I

1:04:52.720 --> 1:04:54.120
<v Speaker 3>would call it the worst, but she does.

1:04:55.440 --> 1:04:59.800
<v Speaker 4>Peggy Collins joins us here on this historic Sunday, Peggy

1:05:00.160 --> 1:05:03.760
<v Speaker 4>to talk about western Massachusetts, because I can remember times

1:05:03.760 --> 1:05:08.440
<v Speaker 4>where Massachusetts surprised me on the edge of a purple state.

1:05:08.520 --> 1:05:10.640
<v Speaker 4>You're out of the College of the Holy Cross, which

1:05:10.680 --> 1:05:15.200
<v Speaker 4>is from Boston, far western Massachusetts. From your reporting and

1:05:15.240 --> 1:05:17.880
<v Speaker 4>all the sources you have at our Washington News Bureau,

1:05:18.400 --> 1:05:22.040
<v Speaker 4>would you assume that purple states became more purple this

1:05:22.120 --> 1:05:23.080
<v Speaker 4>Sunday afternoon?

1:05:24.440 --> 1:05:27.320
<v Speaker 16>Well, I think Tom, it remains to be seen, you know,

1:05:27.400 --> 1:05:30.320
<v Speaker 16>sitting here today in this Washington Bureau that you just

1:05:30.440 --> 1:05:35.280
<v Speaker 16>mentioned with colleagues like our great Joe Matthew and you,

1:05:35.360 --> 1:05:37.680
<v Speaker 16>as you're saying when you're visiting, it's just a historic

1:05:37.800 --> 1:05:41.240
<v Speaker 16>day here in Washington. But there are you know, still

1:05:41.240 --> 1:05:44.600
<v Speaker 16>several months ago, we're coming off of the Republican National

1:05:44.640 --> 1:05:48.600
<v Speaker 16>Convention in Milwaukee, where the Republicans were riding high really

1:05:48.640 --> 1:05:51.920
<v Speaker 16>feeling like that map that you're talking about blue, red,

1:05:51.960 --> 1:05:55.440
<v Speaker 16>purple had really opened up over the last few weeks

1:05:55.440 --> 1:05:59.360
<v Speaker 16>after Biden's disastrous debate, and they were talking about states

1:05:59.400 --> 1:06:03.720
<v Speaker 16>being in play, like Minnesota, New Hampshire, Virginia. But I

1:06:03.760 --> 1:06:06.720
<v Speaker 16>do think, as David was just mentioning, it's going to

1:06:06.840 --> 1:06:09.640
<v Speaker 16>be interesting to see where the pools land over the

1:06:09.680 --> 1:06:12.720
<v Speaker 16>next several days, now that Trump is no longer going

1:06:12.760 --> 1:06:14.960
<v Speaker 16>to be running against Biden, and you're going to have,

1:06:15.080 --> 1:06:17.480
<v Speaker 16>no matter what, the younger candidate, you could have a

1:06:17.520 --> 1:06:21.120
<v Speaker 16>woman candidate, and I think it will change the landscape

1:06:21.160 --> 1:06:21.600
<v Speaker 16>for sure.

1:06:22.760 --> 1:06:27.680
<v Speaker 4>Joe Matthew, excuse me, Joe Matthew. There are important Congress people,

1:06:28.120 --> 1:06:32.480
<v Speaker 4>and then there's the most important Congress person for President.

1:06:32.120 --> 1:06:35.960
<v Speaker 12>Biden, the man who brung him, as Joe Biden likes

1:06:36.000 --> 1:06:40.120
<v Speaker 12>to say, Jim Clyburn now making it official endorsing Kamala

1:06:40.160 --> 1:06:43.520
<v Speaker 12>Harris with a lengthy statement Tom that of course begins

1:06:43.560 --> 1:06:47.360
<v Speaker 12>with a lengthy paragraph talking about the honor and privilege

1:06:47.400 --> 1:06:49.760
<v Speaker 12>of calling Joe Biden a friend, but it ends with

1:06:49.840 --> 1:06:52.520
<v Speaker 12>the endorsement I echo the good judgment he demonstrated, and

1:06:52.600 --> 1:06:56.040
<v Speaker 12>selecting Vice President Harris to lead this nation alongside him,

1:06:56.240 --> 1:06:58.760
<v Speaker 12>and proud to follow his lead in support for candidacy

1:06:58.800 --> 1:07:03.000
<v Speaker 12>to succeed him as the party's nominee for President Peggy Collins.

1:07:03.000 --> 1:07:05.520
<v Speaker 12>This is a pretty big moment and the Democrats supporting

1:07:05.600 --> 1:07:08.080
<v Speaker 12>Kamala Harris, who have been very worried about this being

1:07:08.160 --> 1:07:11.280
<v Speaker 12>blown into an open fight, are probably breathing a sigh

1:07:11.320 --> 1:07:13.840
<v Speaker 12>of relief. Now is the idea of a contested convention

1:07:14.000 --> 1:07:14.800
<v Speaker 12>now off the table?

1:07:16.200 --> 1:07:18.160
<v Speaker 16>I don't think it's off the table, Joe, But the

1:07:18.200 --> 1:07:21.000
<v Speaker 16>signs that we're seeing from our reporting so far is

1:07:21.040 --> 1:07:24.600
<v Speaker 16>that quickly a number of key Democrats, including the Clintons,

1:07:25.000 --> 1:07:27.800
<v Speaker 16>are coming out and endorsing Harris. So the current right

1:07:27.840 --> 1:07:30.880
<v Speaker 16>now seems to be going in her direction without any

1:07:30.960 --> 1:07:35.040
<v Speaker 16>big names that have been talked about, Whitmer, Pritzker, Newsomb,

1:07:35.120 --> 1:07:37.920
<v Speaker 16>you know, coming out yet to challenge. They don't have

1:07:38.040 --> 1:07:41.440
<v Speaker 16>a lot of time left before the Democratic National Convention

1:07:41.600 --> 1:07:45.000
<v Speaker 16>starts on August nineteenth, so the question of whether or

1:07:45.040 --> 1:07:48.680
<v Speaker 16>not the party can hold together behind a candidate between

1:07:48.680 --> 1:07:50.520
<v Speaker 16>now and then is critical.

1:07:51.320 --> 1:07:51.640
<v Speaker 4>Peggy.

1:07:51.720 --> 1:07:55.200
<v Speaker 3>I think of the old Hemingway quote about Bankruptcley slowly

1:07:55.360 --> 1:07:57.920
<v Speaker 3>than all at once as I think about how all

1:07:57.960 --> 1:08:00.760
<v Speaker 3>of this happened, and there was the beginning a handful

1:08:00.800 --> 1:08:03.840
<v Speaker 3>of Congress people who raised alarm about this suggested that

1:08:03.880 --> 1:08:06.080
<v Speaker 3>Joe Biden should drop out. That began to build over

1:08:06.120 --> 1:08:09.240
<v Speaker 3>the last few days that's gotten us to this moment.

1:08:09.880 --> 1:08:12.560
<v Speaker 3>What is your perspective on the timing of all of this.

1:08:12.720 --> 1:08:14.400
<v Speaker 3>You know, we have a few weeks here till the convention,

1:08:14.640 --> 1:08:18.040
<v Speaker 3>one hundred and seven days until the election itself. I

1:08:18.080 --> 1:08:19.960
<v Speaker 3>guess what I'm asking you is is what took the

1:08:19.960 --> 1:08:22.160
<v Speaker 3>president so long as we sort of saw the writing

1:08:22.200 --> 1:08:24.960
<v Speaker 3>on the wall, and how much does that sort of

1:08:25.800 --> 1:08:28.559
<v Speaker 3>not damage the Democratic Party here going forward but set

1:08:28.600 --> 1:08:32.000
<v Speaker 3>them back? Yes, he had COVID, Yes he was road

1:08:32.040 --> 1:08:34.720
<v Speaker 3>with Beach Delaware fighting that and thinking through all of this.

1:08:34.800 --> 1:08:36.479
<v Speaker 3>But what do you make of how long this took

1:08:36.479 --> 1:08:39.519
<v Speaker 3>in light of that poor debate performance and what happens since?

1:08:40.600 --> 1:08:42.360
<v Speaker 16>Well, I think a couple of things, David, As you

1:08:42.439 --> 1:08:45.280
<v Speaker 16>mentioned the debate performance June twenty seventh, but you know,

1:08:45.320 --> 1:08:49.080
<v Speaker 16>we were working furiously through July fourth weekend because cracks

1:08:49.080 --> 1:08:52.240
<v Speaker 16>had already started to form then. So he held on

1:08:52.360 --> 1:08:55.160
<v Speaker 16>for weeks. He held on through NATO, which was happening

1:08:55.200 --> 1:08:58.800
<v Speaker 16>here in Washington after July fourth weekend, and then he

1:08:58.880 --> 1:09:00.840
<v Speaker 16>went through the presser but didn't knock it.

1:09:00.800 --> 1:09:01.519
<v Speaker 1>Out of the park.

1:09:01.720 --> 1:09:05.720
<v Speaker 16>It was okay after the NATO meeting, and I think

1:09:05.760 --> 1:09:08.960
<v Speaker 16>it's this past week the mountain of pressure that just

1:09:09.080 --> 1:09:12.000
<v Speaker 16>kept building and more and more people coming out, even

1:09:12.040 --> 1:09:16.400
<v Speaker 16>while the Republicans were convening in Milwaukee and either even

1:09:16.479 --> 1:09:20.679
<v Speaker 16>after the attemptive assassination with Trump that certain key people

1:09:20.720 --> 1:09:23.479
<v Speaker 16>came out and called for the President to step aside

1:09:23.640 --> 1:09:25.840
<v Speaker 16>in the race. I will also note, when you think

1:09:25.880 --> 1:09:28.360
<v Speaker 16>about the last time this happened in nineteen sixty eight

1:09:28.439 --> 1:09:31.880
<v Speaker 16>with LBJ, he didn't address from the Oval Office. That

1:09:32.000 --> 1:09:34.240
<v Speaker 16>surprised the nation at the time to say he was

1:09:34.280 --> 1:09:36.840
<v Speaker 16>not going to seek reelection. In this case, I think

1:09:36.880 --> 1:09:39.880
<v Speaker 16>Biden really truly was trying to hold on and thought

1:09:39.920 --> 1:09:41.880
<v Speaker 16>he might be able to make a case to stay

1:09:41.920 --> 1:09:44.920
<v Speaker 16>in the race. But ultimately the pressure just broke that

1:09:45.080 --> 1:09:47.519
<v Speaker 16>damn and he had to make the announcement in a

1:09:47.600 --> 1:09:52.080
<v Speaker 16>statement over Twitter because he's dealing with COVID in Rehova speech.

1:09:52.200 --> 1:09:54.160
<v Speaker 16>So I think it's not the way they wanted to

1:09:54.200 --> 1:09:56.400
<v Speaker 16>do it, certainly, and I think he was fighting to

1:09:56.439 --> 1:09:57.479
<v Speaker 16>the bitter end to hold on.

1:09:57.840 --> 1:10:00.639
<v Speaker 3>Peggy, what's that speech going to be? Like alluded to

1:10:00.760 --> 1:10:03.120
<v Speaker 3>in that note to the American people, He's going to

1:10:03.160 --> 1:10:06.000
<v Speaker 3>explain his decision more in the coming days. Here, What

1:10:06.000 --> 1:10:08.040
<v Speaker 3>do you what do our colleagues expect in terms of

1:10:08.080 --> 1:10:11.479
<v Speaker 3>both presentation, what we're likely to hear from the President,

1:10:11.680 --> 1:10:13.479
<v Speaker 3>any sense at this point of how much that's going

1:10:13.520 --> 1:10:15.680
<v Speaker 3>to mirror what we got from LBJ in nineteen sixty eight.

1:10:16.840 --> 1:10:19.479
<v Speaker 16>I think we're still reporting out when exactly that will

1:10:19.520 --> 1:10:22.840
<v Speaker 16>be and where he will do it. We think that

1:10:22.920 --> 1:10:25.400
<v Speaker 16>it would likely be from the White House. But I

1:10:25.400 --> 1:10:27.600
<v Speaker 16>think in terms of the themes we expect him to

1:10:27.640 --> 1:10:31.280
<v Speaker 16>hit so far, would certainly be on democracy. That's something

1:10:31.320 --> 1:10:35.000
<v Speaker 16>that he really hammered in on before the midterms a

1:10:35.040 --> 1:10:37.520
<v Speaker 16>couple of years ago and had a lot of resonance.

1:10:37.560 --> 1:10:39.679
<v Speaker 16>But I do think it's one thing that he really

1:10:39.720 --> 1:10:41.840
<v Speaker 16>had said time and time again that he feels like

1:10:41.880 --> 1:10:44.519
<v Speaker 16>this is an election where democracy is on the line,

1:10:44.840 --> 1:10:48.760
<v Speaker 16>and he feels like he has held up democracy here

1:10:48.800 --> 1:10:51.240
<v Speaker 16>in the country. So we expect that and also expect

1:10:51.320 --> 1:10:54.240
<v Speaker 16>him to note a couple of his key achievements, that

1:10:54.360 --> 1:10:57.840
<v Speaker 16>being the huge infrastructure spending bill that he got passed

1:10:57.840 --> 1:11:01.280
<v Speaker 16>through and the Inflation Act that has a lot of

1:11:01.640 --> 1:11:06.280
<v Speaker 16>future spending on things like energy efficiency electric vehicles, which

1:11:06.280 --> 1:11:08.840
<v Speaker 16>of course the Republicans have attacked. But I think he

1:11:08.960 --> 1:11:13.320
<v Speaker 16>will hone in on some of his legislative achievements and

1:11:13.439 --> 1:11:15.640
<v Speaker 16>harken back to like where he started and what he

1:11:15.680 --> 1:11:17.799
<v Speaker 16>wanted to do when he first became president.

1:11:19.160 --> 1:11:20.680
<v Speaker 12>Peggy, what do you think of the fact that this

1:11:20.760 --> 1:11:23.320
<v Speaker 12>rolled out on Twitter? Is Joe Biden not physically well

1:11:23.400 --> 1:11:25.720
<v Speaker 12>enough to address the American people? Shouldn't this be an

1:11:25.720 --> 1:11:26.800
<v Speaker 12>oval office address?

1:11:28.200 --> 1:11:30.960
<v Speaker 4>You asked a delicate question, Joe Matthew I thought of

1:11:30.960 --> 1:11:33.960
<v Speaker 4>that driving in here. I mean, you really wonder at

1:11:34.000 --> 1:11:37.080
<v Speaker 4>the pace of this. Thank you Joe for asking't it? Peggy?

1:11:38.280 --> 1:11:40.640
<v Speaker 16>I think COVID is one hundred percent a factor. I

1:11:40.680 --> 1:11:44.639
<v Speaker 16>think you know, he wasn't looking good last week when

1:11:44.640 --> 1:11:47.760
<v Speaker 16>they announced that he was he had COVID and was

1:11:47.760 --> 1:11:50.400
<v Speaker 16>going to need to isolate. And I think we're on

1:11:50.439 --> 1:11:53.200
<v Speaker 16>a Sunday and we're going into the week markets are

1:11:53.200 --> 1:11:55.800
<v Speaker 16>going to open in Asia. I think they really did

1:11:55.880 --> 1:11:58.200
<v Speaker 16>feel like, with the mountain of pressure that they needed

1:11:58.240 --> 1:12:00.920
<v Speaker 16>to make a decision. They couldn't just leave it hanging

1:12:00.960 --> 1:12:02.800
<v Speaker 16>in the air in terms of the good for the

1:12:02.840 --> 1:12:05.479
<v Speaker 16>party over the next several days. But I don't think

1:12:05.520 --> 1:12:08.559
<v Speaker 16>this is the ideal scenario for how they would have

1:12:08.720 --> 1:12:11.839
<v Speaker 16>liked to do it. And because he is still recovering

1:12:11.840 --> 1:12:14.479
<v Speaker 16>from COVID, so therefore or can't do a public address

1:12:14.520 --> 1:12:15.680
<v Speaker 16>the way they might have wanted to.

1:12:15.920 --> 1:12:20.479
<v Speaker 4>Margaret Collins, our Washington newsbrial chief, a lengthy Sunday to

1:12:20.520 --> 1:12:22.240
<v Speaker 4>say the least, thank you so much for you and

1:12:22.320 --> 1:12:26.599
<v Speaker 4>your team's effort in Washington. There is a view from

1:12:26.640 --> 1:12:31.080
<v Speaker 4>sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue. It is a different view on

1:12:31.120 --> 1:12:34.960
<v Speaker 4>this Sunday afternoon, David Gura, Jordan Fabian has been seeing

1:12:35.040 --> 1:12:37.000
<v Speaker 4>it from there to Delaware.

1:12:37.600 --> 1:12:39.800
<v Speaker 3>Jordan, great to have you with us here for your

1:12:40.000 --> 1:12:42.439
<v Speaker 3>perspective on this as well. And maybe I can put

1:12:42.439 --> 1:12:44.360
<v Speaker 3>to you a variation of the question that I asked Peggy,

1:12:44.400 --> 1:12:47.360
<v Speaker 3>which is what has this weekend been like? What has

1:12:47.400 --> 1:12:51.040
<v Speaker 3>the build been like in recent days to this moment?

1:12:51.240 --> 1:12:55.160
<v Speaker 3>You charting the president's state of mind and what he's

1:12:55.200 --> 1:12:57.320
<v Speaker 3>been up to. And in Rehoboth Beach where he has

1:12:57.320 --> 1:13:00.760
<v Speaker 3>a home, what finally broke the dam? Final convinced him

1:13:00.920 --> 1:13:03.479
<v Speaker 3>from your reporting, what convinced him that this was the

1:13:03.520 --> 1:13:04.080
<v Speaker 3>decision that he.

1:13:04.040 --> 1:13:04.439
<v Speaker 2>Had to make.

1:13:04.720 --> 1:13:07.519
<v Speaker 10>Yeah, Look, he's been under just relentless pressure from his

1:13:07.640 --> 1:13:11.280
<v Speaker 10>allies even after he was diagnosed with COVID. Last week

1:13:11.640 --> 1:13:15.320
<v Speaker 10>he saw at least a dozen other Democratic lawmakers come out,

1:13:15.400 --> 1:13:18.479
<v Speaker 10>and so it appeared the pressure just became unbearable. It's

1:13:18.520 --> 1:13:21.479
<v Speaker 10>still surprising though, I mean, Biden has been, you know,

1:13:21.479 --> 1:13:25.360
<v Speaker 10>a stubborn guy throughout his career. In the weeks prior,

1:13:25.439 --> 1:13:27.680
<v Speaker 10>it seemed like the pressure was only causing him to

1:13:27.720 --> 1:13:30.840
<v Speaker 10>dig in further. But you know, perhaps weekend, by COVID,

1:13:31.160 --> 1:13:33.479
<v Speaker 10>sitting at home in Rehoboth Beach with his family and

1:13:33.520 --> 1:13:36.759
<v Speaker 10>close advisors, they were able to step back and reflect

1:13:37.080 --> 1:13:39.599
<v Speaker 10>and just see the picture that a past the victories

1:13:39.720 --> 1:13:41.519
<v Speaker 10>against Donald Trump just wasn't tenable.

1:13:44.280 --> 1:13:47.759
<v Speaker 12>What happens, go ahead, go ahead, shoe yes, sorry, David.

1:13:47.840 --> 1:13:50.240
<v Speaker 12>What happens with this meeting with Benjamin Nettan ya who

1:13:50.520 --> 1:13:52.519
<v Speaker 12>this week? Some thought that would be a reason for

1:13:52.640 --> 1:13:55.160
<v Speaker 12>Joe Biden to postpone a statement like this. He still

1:13:55.200 --> 1:13:57.360
<v Speaker 12>plans to meet with the prime minister. Does this go

1:13:57.479 --> 1:13:58.360
<v Speaker 12>as schedules?

1:13:59.600 --> 1:14:01.840
<v Speaker 10>There's a lot of uncertainty right now, and so I

1:14:01.840 --> 1:14:04.760
<v Speaker 10>don't want to say anything definitively, but we haven't heard

1:14:04.800 --> 1:14:08.280
<v Speaker 10>otherwise that that's rescheduled. The President did indicate in his

1:14:08.400 --> 1:14:11.160
<v Speaker 10>statement that he's going to serve out his term, so

1:14:11.479 --> 1:14:14.679
<v Speaker 10>an official act like that, like meeting with the leader

1:14:14.720 --> 1:14:16.960
<v Speaker 10>of Israel would seem to stay on the schedule, but

1:14:17.000 --> 1:14:19.800
<v Speaker 10>we just don't know for sure at this time what

1:14:19.960 --> 1:14:20.679
<v Speaker 10>he's really going.

1:14:20.600 --> 1:14:24.080
<v Speaker 4>To do next week. Joined a delicate question. How is

1:14:24.160 --> 1:14:27.280
<v Speaker 4>missus Biden the first Lady? Has there been any reporting

1:14:27.320 --> 1:14:30.360
<v Speaker 4>this afternoon of well, I guess the family in general,

1:14:30.439 --> 1:14:35.200
<v Speaker 4>but I think all of any persuasion of politics would

1:14:35.280 --> 1:14:38.720
<v Speaker 4>like to know how the first Lady is doing. Has

1:14:38.760 --> 1:14:41.320
<v Speaker 4>there been any reporting on that, Jordan Fabian.

1:14:42.960 --> 1:14:46.160
<v Speaker 10>It's been hard to figure out what exactly the reaction is,

1:14:46.200 --> 1:14:48.439
<v Speaker 10>but this has to be a painful moment for the

1:14:48.439 --> 1:14:51.439
<v Speaker 10>Biden family. Joe Biden is someone who spent five decades

1:14:51.760 --> 1:14:54.960
<v Speaker 10>in Washington working toward the goal becoming president. He finally

1:14:54.960 --> 1:14:58.360
<v Speaker 10>achieves echo in twenty twenty. And you know, he obviously

1:14:58.400 --> 1:15:02.040
<v Speaker 10>accomplished a lot help defeat Donald Trump, but his uh,

1:15:02.360 --> 1:15:05.639
<v Speaker 10>his presidency is going to end in one term against

1:15:05.960 --> 1:15:08.840
<v Speaker 10>and amid a lot of recriminations from fellow Democrats and

1:15:08.920 --> 1:15:09.680
<v Speaker 10>friends to get out.

1:15:09.760 --> 1:15:12.880
<v Speaker 4>Jordan Fabian, thank you so much, your White House correspondent.

1:15:13.080 --> 1:15:15.880
<v Speaker 3>You're listening to a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. I'm

1:15:15.960 --> 1:15:19.080
<v Speaker 3>David Dura with Tom Keane and Joe Matthew plenty ahead

1:15:19.479 --> 1:15:25.360
<v Speaker 3>this he's bloom