WEBVTT - Tesla Poised for Expansion 0:00:00.240 --> 0:00:03.280 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day 0:00:03.279 --> 0:00:05.200 we're bringing you the latest news from the world's of 0:00:05.200 --> 0:00:08.920 business and finance, plus technology, politics. So much going on 0:00:08.960 --> 0:00:12.160 in the world of politics, economics, and it's all harnessing 0:00:12.160 --> 0:00:14.840 the power of Business Week reporters and editors. If you 0:00:14.840 --> 0:00:18.280 can download Bloomberg Business Week on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg 0:00:18.320 --> 0:00:20.480 dot com. If you can also listen to our radio 0:00:20.560 --> 0:00:23.439 show at two pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, and be 0:00:23.440 --> 0:00:26.320 sure to watch us too on YouTube by searching Bloomberg 0:00:26.360 --> 0:00:28.560 Global News. You've got to say, well, I was incredibly 0:00:28.560 --> 0:00:30.080 happy to bring in a new year. It was hard 0:00:30.120 --> 0:00:31.400 not to be. As we sit at the top of 0:00:31.440 --> 0:00:33.479 the show, Tim kind of put on edge by the 0:00:33.560 --> 0:00:36.120 NonStop and I feel like dark virus headlines that we've 0:00:36.159 --> 0:00:38.320 been seeing over and over again, even though I think 0:00:38.479 --> 0:00:41.600 so many Americans are numb to these numbers. Um, I 0:00:41.680 --> 0:00:43.239 think for a lot of us this holiday season they 0:00:43.240 --> 0:00:46.400 really head home. Yeah, I really, there was something, you know, 0:00:46.479 --> 0:00:49.880 you just I think being being beyond just tired about 0:00:49.880 --> 0:00:52.640 the situation. You're right that we all either know someone 0:00:52.880 --> 0:00:55.400 and we're really just kind of feeling this personally I 0:00:55.440 --> 0:00:58.080 do want to put out there that global coronavirus infections 0:00:58.120 --> 0:01:01.480 climbed above eighty five million after daily cases in the 0:01:01.520 --> 0:01:03.440 US are to a record of nearly three hundred thousand 0:01:03.480 --> 0:01:05.440 following the New Year holiday. So just some numbers to 0:01:05.480 --> 0:01:08.840 set the tone. Let's get our daily check on COVID 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:12.399 nineteen doctors of our Chowdry, Senior VP in chief Information 0:01:12.440 --> 0:01:15.279 officer at Seattle Children's Hospital, joining us on the phone 0:01:15.720 --> 0:01:18.200 in Seattle. Dr Chowdery, nice to have you here with 0:01:18.280 --> 0:01:21.440 Tim and myself. It does feel like once again COVID 0:01:21.800 --> 0:01:24.560 is again out of control. How do you see it 0:01:25.920 --> 0:01:28.840 the afternoon? And thank you for having me on the show. Yeah, 0:01:28.840 --> 0:01:32.560 I mean it. Certainly we've seen an uptake in COVID spikes, 0:01:32.920 --> 0:01:36.119 but certainly in the state of Washington we have had 0:01:36.160 --> 0:01:39.600 a good handle on the actions that we've been taking 0:01:40.080 --> 0:01:43.080 in terms of a healthcare system, in terms of protecting 0:01:43.080 --> 0:01:46.800 the public. So I think we're coping well in Washington. 0:01:46.920 --> 0:01:48.840 Stay with it. I mean, you were so early to 0:01:50.080 --> 0:01:54.480 the pandemic, the earliest cases were in Washington, and absolutely 0:01:54.520 --> 0:01:56.960 and so it taught us a lot, you know, setting 0:01:57.040 --> 0:02:01.360 up emergency operations centers, me in our health care system 0:02:01.520 --> 0:02:05.240 and keeping track of this on a daily basis. Shutting 0:02:05.240 --> 0:02:08.440 down elective surgeries has all helped to bring us back 0:02:08.480 --> 0:02:16.720 on track. Certainly for pediatrics, we've seen less hospitalization. Where 0:02:16.720 --> 0:02:19.160 do you think we are now as a country versus 0:02:19.200 --> 0:02:23.240 where we were back in February, March, April, May are 0:02:23.280 --> 0:02:26.120 we are? We were in a worse place now. I 0:02:26.160 --> 0:02:28.240 think we've learned a lot, but I think we have 0:02:28.280 --> 0:02:30.320 a long way to go. I think there's a lot 0:02:30.360 --> 0:02:33.040 of logistical things that we need to do in terms 0:02:33.120 --> 0:02:39.240 of vaccine dissemination and tracking people and continuing to follow 0:02:39.240 --> 0:02:41.160 the steps that we need to do in terms of 0:02:41.200 --> 0:02:45.480 social distancing, masking, etcetera. I don't think we're through the 0:02:45.480 --> 0:02:47.959 worst of it. I think we're It's sort of that 0:02:48.360 --> 0:02:52.000 curve of we're reaching that peak and at some point 0:02:52.000 --> 0:02:56.919 we'll see that better situation. But I think we still 0:02:56.919 --> 0:02:59.120 have more work to do. Yeah, it certainly feels that way. 0:02:59.200 --> 0:03:03.440 Dr Charry. Technology Man, we've seen kind of the healthcare 0:03:03.560 --> 0:03:08.320 world um embrace telemedicine and really the use of technology increasingly. 0:03:08.360 --> 0:03:10.240 I just was kind of kidding with somebody this morning. 0:03:10.240 --> 0:03:12.519 I have more medical apps on my phone than I've 0:03:12.560 --> 0:03:15.320 ever had before, and that's what I'm using to check 0:03:15.320 --> 0:03:18.120 in and do things. Uh, it's really moved forward in 0:03:18.160 --> 0:03:19.760 a big way. First of all, what I want to 0:03:19.800 --> 0:03:22.480 ask you is, how could we use technology right now 0:03:22.520 --> 0:03:25.040 in a better way to get the vaccine out to 0:03:25.080 --> 0:03:28.840 more people? Maybe to help in the distribution of this vaccine. 0:03:30.280 --> 0:03:32.720 I think there's going to have to be more centralization 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:35.480 of how you track the vaccine. I mean, at present, 0:03:35.520 --> 0:03:38.520 we're still handing out, you know, little pieces of paper 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:40.880 to say you've been vaccinated. I think at the state 0:03:40.960 --> 0:03:43.440 level that needs to be more coordination in terms of 0:03:43.800 --> 0:03:46.520 is there going to be a standardized app. Certainly in 0:03:46.760 --> 0:03:49.000 our health system, we're trying to track that with our 0:03:49.120 --> 0:03:52.600 own electronic health record systems. But you know, that's another 0:03:52.680 --> 0:03:57.520 national sort of situation. Why do you think we've seen 0:03:57.560 --> 0:03:59.840 so many hiccups in the last couple of weeks when 0:03:59.840 --> 0:04:02.680 it comes to vaccine distribution? So many people have so 0:04:02.680 --> 0:04:03.960 many questions, When am I going to be able to 0:04:03.960 --> 0:04:05.760 get this vaccine? Who do I even call to get 0:04:05.800 --> 0:04:09.520 this vaccine? There's no clarity, and I know that varies 0:04:09.560 --> 0:04:12.360 by state, but in general in the United States, why 0:04:12.360 --> 0:04:15.400 has it been such a bumpy road? I just think 0:04:15.480 --> 0:04:19.440 it's it's something that we haven't prepared well for, right, 0:04:19.480 --> 0:04:22.479 I mean, it's it's that logistical nightmare of how do 0:04:22.560 --> 0:04:25.520 you get everybody vaccinated in the hundreds of millions of 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:28.279 people we had time to compare. That's what's frustrating, I 0:04:28.279 --> 0:04:31.800 think to a lot of Americans. Yeah, and I think 0:04:31.880 --> 0:04:35.119 it's not been It's been disjointed, hasn't it in terms 0:04:35.160 --> 0:04:37.480 of every state has had a different strategy in a 0:04:37.520 --> 0:04:41.480 different plan, and information technology was probably going to be 0:04:41.520 --> 0:04:43.599 the way to pull all of this together. But then 0:04:44.080 --> 0:04:46.800 what you don't want is the situation you're describing. You know, 0:04:46.839 --> 0:04:50.640 I now have to log into fire applications to find 0:04:50.640 --> 0:04:54.200 out what's happening. And then there's also the equity issue 0:04:54.200 --> 0:04:56.560 in the country, right, because not everybody has access to 0:04:56.600 --> 0:05:00.160 the internet or a smartphone or a laptop, So how 0:05:00.160 --> 0:05:03.200 would we cater for those patients that don't have those 0:05:03.560 --> 0:05:06.880 those things available? Is there a conversation that you think 0:05:06.920 --> 0:05:10.359 we need to be having with the Trump administration and 0:05:10.400 --> 0:05:12.960 the folks in Washington so that we can all of 0:05:13.000 --> 0:05:15.760 a sudden make this work better and and work out 0:05:16.160 --> 0:05:19.520 the logistical and distribution problems that we're not having that 0:05:19.560 --> 0:05:22.560 we need to well, I think my hope is at 0:05:22.560 --> 0:05:26.880 a state level we are having those conversations. Certainly, that 0:05:26.920 --> 0:05:30.440 would be my hope. If that's actually happening practically, in 0:05:30.520 --> 0:05:34.279 practical terms, I wouldn't be aware of that, but I 0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:35.720 think that's what you need to do, is you need 0:05:35.760 --> 0:05:38.840 to have a standardized approach, and then that approach is 0:05:38.880 --> 0:05:43.440 then passed down from the government to the various states. Certainly, 0:05:43.680 --> 0:05:47.360 you know, I'm I'm from the UK originally, and the 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:51.839 UK health system has had a top down, centralized government 0:05:51.880 --> 0:05:55.480 approach to how a vaccine would be disseminated, and then 0:05:55.920 --> 0:05:58.359 different health systems have been told this is what's going 0:05:58.400 --> 0:06:01.640 to happen, and maybe we need more of that. Dr Chawdrey, 0:06:01.839 --> 0:06:05.800 Carol and I were talking about children and the vaccine. 0:06:05.839 --> 0:06:09.200 When it comes to children. What is the latest research 0:06:09.240 --> 0:06:12.200 that you're seeing about when we can expect a definitive 0:06:12.240 --> 0:06:18.560 answer as to when children can or cannot actually get vaccinated. Well, 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:20.440 at present, as you know, it's not a proof for 0:06:20.480 --> 0:06:25.560 anybody in the sixteen Certainly people are working on when 0:06:25.600 --> 0:06:27.839 that will happen. But you know, I'm in technology, not 0:06:27.920 --> 0:06:30.640 specifically on the clinical side, so I don't have a 0:06:30.680 --> 0:06:33.919 current timeline as to when a vaccine will be approved 0:06:33.960 --> 0:06:37.040 for the kids, but it is. You know, it's just 0:06:37.080 --> 0:06:39.400 a reminder that we're still learning. There's still things that 0:06:39.440 --> 0:06:42.960 we have to learn about, uh, the COVID nineteen vaccines 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:45.800 that are that are out there currently. It's just a 0:06:45.839 --> 0:06:48.040 reminder that we we still don't know everything, and especially 0:06:48.080 --> 0:06:49.960 when it comes to a younger population, which I think 0:06:50.320 --> 0:06:53.360 everyone would say, you know, it's so key to getting 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:55.560 those schools back open. I mean, I wonder how you 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:58.719 look at that situation. Um, you know, you obviously focus 0:06:58.720 --> 0:07:01.440 on technology when it plays into the medical world. Technology 0:07:01.440 --> 0:07:04.680 has been crucial, certainly for schooling this time around, but 0:07:04.720 --> 0:07:10.080 there's nothing like kids being back in classrooms. Yeah, I 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:14.440 think kids do need that personal interaction that helps develop 0:07:14.520 --> 0:07:17.400 them for the future. And certainly even even at adult level, 0:07:17.480 --> 0:07:22.840 we're seeing that disjoint between virtual working versus face to 0:07:22.880 --> 0:07:25.920 face communications. So I think there's definitely an impact, but 0:07:26.560 --> 0:07:28.960 there's still a lot to learn. And you were also 0:07:29.040 --> 0:07:34.200 assuming that of the population will actually take this vaccine. 0:07:33.600 --> 0:07:36.400 Do you think do you think that there's going to 0:07:36.440 --> 0:07:38.880 be a significant I mean, I'm even hearing this among 0:07:38.960 --> 0:07:42.200 healthcare workers who are not comfortable, doctors who are not 0:07:42.240 --> 0:07:44.480 comfortable taking it. How do you see it? What are 0:07:44.480 --> 0:07:47.760 you hearing among your community? Well, if you if you 0:07:47.800 --> 0:07:50.240 look at the data for the state of Washington for 0:07:50.360 --> 0:07:54.560 flu vaccination, only about fifty of the people every season 0:07:54.880 --> 0:07:58.600 take the flu vaccination. So we were applying that same 0:07:58.640 --> 0:08:02.600 statistic to it, which is an unknown vaccine that people 0:08:02.640 --> 0:08:05.760 don't necessarily trust. And I don't even think we're going 0:08:05.800 --> 0:08:09.280 to reach Yeah, I mean I I hope we don't 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:11.960 see that that type those numbers. I think the other 0:08:11.960 --> 0:08:13.800 side of that is that we could see you know, 0:08:13.880 --> 0:08:15.520 I think people are more concerned and a lot of 0:08:15.560 --> 0:08:17.800 people are more concerned about the effects of COVID than 0:08:17.800 --> 0:08:19.880 they are about the effects of the flu, despite what 0:08:19.920 --> 0:08:22.040 we heard from the President verily very early on in 0:08:22.040 --> 0:08:24.400 this pandemic. Um Dr Chargery, I want to talk a 0:08:24.440 --> 0:08:26.320 little bit about technology in the way that you've used 0:08:26.320 --> 0:08:30.360 technology to transform the patient experience at the hospital, especially 0:08:30.360 --> 0:08:32.559 with with kids, because when kids are in the hospital, 0:08:32.559 --> 0:08:34.120 and when anyone's in the hospital, they need to be 0:08:34.720 --> 0:08:38.440 around people who love them and people who support them. Um, 0:08:38.480 --> 0:08:42.160 what changes have you had to make to visitation in 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:44.480 the hospital and how have you used technology to help 0:08:44.520 --> 0:08:48.520 bridge some of those divides. So, certainly there's been an 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:53.760 acceleration to digital transformation throughout healthcare. Because of the pandemic, 0:08:54.280 --> 0:08:57.679 we've we've had to restrict the number of visitors by 0:08:57.760 --> 0:09:02.400 bedside to one parent, and we've deployed iPads at the 0:09:02.440 --> 0:09:08.160 bedside so that children can talk to their caregivers remotely. 0:09:08.240 --> 0:09:11.800 So there's been a massive influx of We weren't doing 0:09:11.840 --> 0:09:14.600 a lot of telehealth, but we really have spiked in 0:09:14.600 --> 0:09:18.640 that telehealth space. And at the same time, we've we've 0:09:18.679 --> 0:09:22.240 made sure that the employees, not all employees, need to 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:26.319 come in to work. So we've gone from almost zero 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:30.080 people working from home to over four thousand people working 0:09:30.120 --> 0:09:32.800 from home now and we've done that on a hyper 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:37.440 converged infrastructure with new Tanics with what I'm sorry say 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:40.800 that again. So the technology we've used as new Tanics 0:09:40.880 --> 0:09:45.280 hyper converged infrastructure to allow all of this remote working 0:09:45.480 --> 0:09:50.440 and then enable telehealth and telemedicine with the hardware at 0:09:50.480 --> 0:09:55.320 the bedside of these iPads available to kids. That's really access. Yeah, 0:09:55.400 --> 0:09:59.280 that's pretty that's pretty significant. Um. Yeah, it's just you know, 0:09:59.360 --> 0:10:02.400 interesting to se see how you know, as they say, 0:10:02.600 --> 0:10:05.439 stress and strain often leads to disruption, and we certainly 0:10:05.480 --> 0:10:08.240 were seeing it playing out here. Doctors a far chowdery. 0:10:08.280 --> 0:10:10.880 Thank you so much, appreciate it. Senior VP, Chief Information 0:10:10.920 --> 0:10:14.280 Officer at Seattle Children's Hospital on the phone from Seattle. 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:19.480 This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. Well, 0:10:19.600 --> 0:10:21.600 it's a New Year's tradition when we check in with 0:10:21.679 --> 0:10:24.760 Hindsight Capital. That is the mythical hedge fund is only 0:10:24.840 --> 0:10:28.440 John Author, senior editor for Bloomberg Markets and Bloomberg Opinion 0:10:28.520 --> 0:10:31.200 calumnists can do. John is also author of The Fearful 0:10:31.280 --> 0:10:33.760 Rise of Markets, amongst some other books. He joins us 0:10:33.760 --> 0:10:35.319 on the phone in New York City along with Bloomberg 0:10:35.320 --> 0:10:38.680 Business Week editor Joel Weber with us as well on 0:10:38.720 --> 0:10:42.120 the phone in Brooklyn. Hindsight Capital. I love this. It's 0:10:42.160 --> 0:10:45.720 the hedge fund that just gets it right. All my money. 0:10:48.400 --> 0:10:51.920 Oh that it were true, Joel, you brought this, You 0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:56.559 brought the store our attention. We love this story. Yeah, 0:10:56.559 --> 0:10:59.400 it's a It's an annual occurrence of John's and one 0:10:59.440 --> 0:11:01.839 that you know, we're just doing a modest adaptation for 0:11:02.160 --> 0:11:05.160 this forthcoming issue. Of the magazine. But but John, I 0:11:05.200 --> 0:11:07.280 wanted to ask you, like, where did you originally get 0:11:07.320 --> 0:11:11.640 the idea for the Conceit? Okay, the original idea was 0:11:11.720 --> 0:11:14.160 way back in two thousand and eight, the you know, 0:11:14.240 --> 0:11:19.040 the Great Crisis year, and I started getting really obnoxious 0:11:19.280 --> 0:11:23.120 emails come December from people claiming that they'd actually seen 0:11:23.160 --> 0:11:26.160 this coming and that they were making huge amounts of money. 0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:31.440 Uh So I then, um, so a lot of which 0:11:31.480 --> 0:11:34.200 I considered to be you know, blatant tin site. So 0:11:34.360 --> 0:11:37.960 then just tried tried with the next size, just with 0:11:38.000 --> 0:11:41.160 a Bloomberg terminal, seeing how you could have made money 0:11:41.160 --> 0:11:43.360 in two thousand and eight, almost all of which involved, 0:11:43.840 --> 0:11:46.600 you know, betting shorts on stuff. In two thousand and eight, 0:11:46.640 --> 0:11:48.480 there were there were very few things that actually made 0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:54.199 you any significant amount of money. Uh And yes, people 0:11:54.280 --> 0:11:56.719 loved it, three or four people. I was working for 0:11:56.760 --> 0:11:59.480 the Financial Times then, but even Financial Times readers were 0:12:00.240 --> 0:12:03.679 in several cases dumb enough to write me letters asking 0:12:03.720 --> 0:12:09.400 for fran Hindsight capital address, complaining bitterly that they weren't 0:12:09.400 --> 0:12:11.960 in the Bloomberg term and also was I sure these 0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:15.240 guys were legits? Um this is one of the few 0:12:15.320 --> 0:12:17.680 years I haven't had anything like that, so I've generally 0:12:18.080 --> 0:12:20.480 felt the need to spoil the joke by mentioning up 0:12:20.520 --> 0:12:23.199 top that it was imaginary. Now that I've grasped that 0:12:23.840 --> 0:12:26.120 people didn't realize that there was such a thing as 0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:29.400 a fund that could foresee the future and would make 0:12:30.040 --> 0:12:32.920 nothing but trades that more than double their money every year. 0:12:32.960 --> 0:12:36.240 So there we go, your own h G Wells, I thinking, 0:12:36.360 --> 0:12:41.000 were the world hinds capital? Well, so John, we're let's 0:12:41.000 --> 0:12:44.160 start in Rio where you decided to base Hindsight capital 0:12:44.360 --> 0:12:48.760 this year. Why Rio Rio is because the Brazilian rail 0:12:48.880 --> 0:12:52.080 was by far the weakest currency of the year, and 0:12:53.760 --> 0:12:56.480 money illusion is a wonderful thing. If you're the weak 0:12:56.520 --> 0:12:59.240 of the currency in which you're investing, the better it 0:12:59.240 --> 0:13:02.640 will appear you have done. So the dollar actually had 0:13:02.720 --> 0:13:06.160 quite a poor year. The dollar flatter's quite a lot 0:13:06.200 --> 0:13:10.800 of returns, but the real dropped by more than twenty 0:13:10.880 --> 0:13:14.720 percent against the against the dollars, so you could automatically 0:13:14.760 --> 0:13:17.200 juice up your returns by more than twenty percents just 0:13:17.280 --> 0:13:21.440 by doing that. Um So a number of if you 0:13:21.720 --> 0:13:24.720 if you invested in the Fang stocks, which we're going 0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:27.719 to come to later, the big Internet platform stocks like 0:13:28.640 --> 0:13:32.320 Netflix and Google. You almost exactly doubled your money last 0:13:32.400 --> 0:13:34.480 year in dollars, and you made sending a hundred and 0:13:34.480 --> 0:13:38.720 forty percent in Yale's first of all go to Rio. 0:13:39.120 --> 0:13:41.360 Also because a great idea to shelter last year in 0:13:42.040 --> 0:13:44.560 in Rio. He moved the office to somewhere above with 0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:49.080 a view over eper deeper, name of beach and totally 0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:51.000 double all these trades that are going to double or 0:13:51.040 --> 0:13:54.280 triple your money and enjoy yourself for a year. Totally, dobously, 0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:57.319 quite sensible thing to do. Well, speaking about lockdown lifestyle, 0:13:57.760 --> 0:14:02.640 hindsight was all in on that one. Yes, I mean again, 0:14:03.880 --> 0:14:05.679 was it that difficult to see if you knew that 0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:08.960 a pandemic was coming? You know it really wasn't. So 0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:11.120 there are a number of ways to bet on it. 0:14:11.240 --> 0:14:13.560 One of the one of the best ones was to 0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:17.079 invest in the internet retailers, not just Amazon. There were 0:14:17.120 --> 0:14:20.400 things like It actually did better than Amazon in sensic terms, 0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:24.720 and shorts the really good ones to bet against because 0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:28.480 a lot of a lot of the traditional retailers were 0:14:28.520 --> 0:14:30.800 already in bankruptcy. You're very weak at the beginning of 0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:33.520 the year, but you could bet on real estate investment 0:14:33.560 --> 0:14:39.840 trusts holding retail regional malls, the the guys who hold 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:43.080 the real estate for these stores once they go bust. 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:48.000 And if you put those two trades together, you shorted, um, 0:14:48.040 --> 0:14:51.400 you shorted retail malls and stashed all your money into 0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:55.280 internet retailers. You tripled your money, Which isn't bad in 0:14:55.320 --> 0:15:02.280 one year or all the other one. Yes, So, John, 0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:04.800 I just wanted to ask about, you know, the other 0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:07.840 phenomenon which I do feel perhaps a lot of investors 0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:10.560 did take advantage of. Was this ability to know that, 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:12.600 you know, when in crisis, central banks are going to 0:15:12.680 --> 0:15:15.480 print a lot of money, slash rates for money. What 0:15:15.520 --> 0:15:18.320 was the best way to take advantage of that? There 0:15:18.360 --> 0:15:22.040 were well, there were many, Um. I think one of 0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:28.080 the easiest ones was too bet on a housing market 0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:31.920 boom based on the the the cheaper mortgages that would 0:15:32.040 --> 0:15:36.080 come through. So you bet on lumber futures, which is 0:15:36.120 --> 0:15:40.840 where a housing rebuilding boom will show up first. Uh. 0:15:41.000 --> 0:15:45.760 And you bet against mortgage rates, which which finance mortgages, 0:15:45.760 --> 0:15:49.400 which obviously make very little money. Indeed, when rates go down, 0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:52.680 to go down to zilch and that again roughly tripled 0:15:52.720 --> 0:15:56.960 your money. Or you could just go for whatever there 0:15:57.040 --> 0:16:00.840 is the most duration, like people would uh invest in 0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:07.800 whatever was most interest rate sensitive, which means the longest 0:16:07.920 --> 0:16:12.120 duration possible, the longest into the future possible. So Austria 0:16:13.040 --> 0:16:17.000 issued three years ago a century bond. You don't get 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:21.440 your money back until the seventeen and if you put 0:16:21.480 --> 0:16:26.680 money into that, you lent to Austria, not the strongest 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:32.720 governments in Europe. Uh, and you've made something like seventy 0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:37.480 We don't have a ton of time left. And I 0:16:37.480 --> 0:16:38.840 just wanted to ask, you've been doing this for a 0:16:38.840 --> 0:16:41.840 dozen years at this point, Um, what are the lessons 0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:43.680 we can glean from from doing this at the end 0:16:43.720 --> 0:16:45.800 of every year? Like, what is the big takeaway for 0:16:45.960 --> 0:16:48.960 readers and listeners? You just people just don't know what's 0:16:48.960 --> 0:16:52.320 going to work. People don't know what's going to work. 0:16:52.440 --> 0:16:56.680 I think two things. One is when you see what 0:16:56.920 --> 0:16:59.000 things like what was it is possible, you should just 0:16:59.120 --> 0:17:03.520 bear in mind that, uh, these are what these are 0:17:03.560 --> 0:17:07.480 what would have worked, and often by definition they surprised people. 0:17:08.080 --> 0:17:11.800 So always cover your backside, never expect to actually do 0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:15.440 as well as hindsight capital. The other one I would 0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:18.480 say is that it's not a fair benchmark for anybody. 0:17:19.000 --> 0:17:21.399 We all of us have to cover the risk that 0:17:21.440 --> 0:17:23.760 we might just be wrong. The other thing is, though 0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:28.199 all in all seriousness, have to have some confidence in 0:17:28.200 --> 0:17:31.840 your convictions. It will take it sometimes, it takes a while, 0:17:31.960 --> 0:17:35.960 but if you just really think through the macro logic, 0:17:36.640 --> 0:17:40.520 there's a there's a yeah, there's a pandemic coming. Asia 0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:43.680 will deal with it better, Europe won't. H and central 0:17:43.680 --> 0:17:47.440 banks or Princess a response most of these things, roughly speaking, 0:17:47.480 --> 0:17:50.320 you could have got. You actually didn't need a ton 0:17:50.359 --> 0:17:52.680 of hindsight this year, like you could figure it out 0:17:52.760 --> 0:17:54.680 kind of how this was going to play out. So 0:17:54.680 --> 0:17:58.040 so score for this one. But listen, who knows about 0:17:58.680 --> 0:18:01.280 one will bring. But we'll look forward to what hindsight 0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:04.639 capital will be up too in the new year. John Authors, 0:18:04.680 --> 0:18:08.199 Senior editor at Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg Opinion columnists, took him 0:18:08.240 --> 0:18:10.959 out on Twitter at John Author's also at Bloomberg dot com. 0:18:11.080 --> 0:18:13.840 Jill Webber, Editor Bloomberg Business Week on the remote access 0:18:13.840 --> 0:18:17.760 from Brooklyn, This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer 0:18:18.080 --> 0:18:21.399 from Bloomberg Radio. Once again, shares of Tesla bucking the 0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:23.880 overall market sell off stock was up as much as 0:18:23.880 --> 0:18:27.080 five and a half percent today On news at Tesla, Uh, 0:18:27.119 --> 0:18:30.000 coming close to meeting it's five hundred thousand vehicle deliveries 0:18:30.040 --> 0:18:33.280 goal for twenties. So let's get to the person who 0:18:33.320 --> 0:18:36.399 knows all things Tesla and Elon Musk. Bloomberg Technology reporter 0:18:36.480 --> 0:18:40.440 Dana Hall are joining us on the phone from San Francisco. Danna, 0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:42.439 thanks for your patients as we were dealing with some 0:18:42.520 --> 0:18:46.520 live breaking news. So Tesla, man it is up again, 0:18:46.880 --> 0:18:49.640 starting off the new year on a strong note. Tell 0:18:49.760 --> 0:18:52.199 us about the vehicle deliveries goal um and what it 0:18:52.240 --> 0:18:55.760 really meant for the company. Sure, so, Elon Musk had 0:18:55.800 --> 0:18:59.320 set a goal of delivering a five hundred thousand cars, 0:18:58.440 --> 0:19:02.080 and then when the pandemic hit, people really questioned whether 0:19:02.119 --> 0:19:05.200 that was doable. Uh, then it seems like they would. 0:19:05.280 --> 0:19:07.320 They were going to meet it, and on Saturday Tesla 0:19:07.400 --> 0:19:10.480 released the numbers. They were just a hair short, like 0:19:10.560 --> 0:19:14.800 fifty cars. So basically the market is saying they met it. 0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:17.160 I mean, you can quibble with whether they really met 0:19:17.160 --> 0:19:20.040 it or not, but you know, this is pretty extraordinary 0:19:20.080 --> 0:19:22.360 for giving the pandemic and given the fact that many 0:19:22.400 --> 0:19:24.960 consumers are kind of holding onto whatever shavings they have, 0:19:25.200 --> 0:19:27.960 and it just sort of bodes well for the new year. 0:19:28.000 --> 0:19:30.520 It kind of sets them up. Now everyone is wondering 0:19:30.560 --> 0:19:33.240 what kind of guidance they're going to give for total deliveries, 0:19:34.680 --> 0:19:36.919 and we should learn more about that when Tesla reports 0:19:36.920 --> 0:19:39.600 earnings later this month, right, So now it's all about 0:19:39.840 --> 0:19:42.240 the guidance, right then, I mean, what are what are 0:19:42.240 --> 0:19:44.280 people looking for in terms of numbers? Do you think 0:19:46.000 --> 0:19:47.800 I mean on the last on a Q three or 0:19:48.000 --> 0:19:51.119 you call elan sort of hedge, but someone said do 0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:54.200 you think you could deliver eight hundred thousand? And Ellen said, well, 0:19:54.240 --> 0:19:56.280 you're not far off. So people are thinking like at 0:19:56.359 --> 0:19:59.879 least seven fifty, maybe eight fifty. You know, all of 0:20:00.160 --> 0:20:03.919 depends on China um and in the model. Why but 0:20:04.119 --> 0:20:05.800 you remember, you know, this is also the year that 0:20:05.880 --> 0:20:09.440 Tesla is building new factories in Berlin and Austin, so 0:20:09.880 --> 0:20:12.280 they will have more capacity. And I think, you know, 0:20:12.320 --> 0:20:13.720 one of the things that you're seeing some of the 0:20:13.720 --> 0:20:16.320 bears on Twitter I mentioned is well, of course they're 0:20:16.359 --> 0:20:19.680 delivering more cars now they have more factories. So you know, 0:20:19.880 --> 0:20:22.280 how is you know, are they really still growing or 0:20:22.320 --> 0:20:25.520 is it just that they now have more capacity. But um, 0:20:25.600 --> 0:20:27.520 you know, it's just been an extraordinary year for the 0:20:27.560 --> 0:20:31.560 company and they're heading into one and a very strong position. Yeah, totally. 0:20:31.600 --> 0:20:34.360 So what are your expectations that you know, what might 0:20:34.359 --> 0:20:36.119 be some of the main stories for Tesla, Because I 0:20:36.160 --> 0:20:38.720 do wonder, Dana, and you know this company, you know 0:20:38.760 --> 0:20:40.560 better than most. I do feel like Elon Musk is 0:20:40.560 --> 0:20:43.160 someone who can juggle a lot. But you are building, 0:20:43.359 --> 0:20:47.000 you know, some massive facilities here in the US or 0:20:47.040 --> 0:20:50.560 more massive facilities also in Berlin, and at the same time, 0:20:50.560 --> 0:20:52.359 you've got to make sure that output is kept up, 0:20:52.359 --> 0:20:55.240 and at the same time you're facing you know, greater 0:20:55.320 --> 0:20:58.240 competition in the Chinese market, which is so important to 0:20:58.280 --> 0:21:00.520 your future. Like how do you juggle all that? So 0:21:00.520 --> 0:21:02.840 I just wonder what you're thinking might be kind of 0:21:02.880 --> 0:21:06.040 some of the big themes for Tesla this year. Yeah, 0:21:06.080 --> 0:21:07.440 I mean, I think the big theme for the year 0:21:07.520 --> 0:21:11.920 is just sort of scaling operations globally and relying more 0:21:12.080 --> 0:21:14.440 on the kind of bench of talent that he has 0:21:14.440 --> 0:21:16.840 a Tesla and other executives. It will be interesting to 0:21:16.880 --> 0:21:19.560 see where Ellen spends his time. I mean, he told 0:21:19.680 --> 0:21:22.360 Wall Street Journal right before the holidays that he has 0:21:22.440 --> 0:21:25.480 moved to Texas, where he's focusing both on the Giga 0:21:25.480 --> 0:21:28.480 factory in Austin, but also, you know, SpaceX has huge 0:21:28.520 --> 0:21:32.760 projects underway in terms of building another rocket called Starship UM, 0:21:32.840 --> 0:21:34.240 and so he's going to be spending a lot of 0:21:34.280 --> 0:21:36.960 his time in Texas. Uh. You know, I think in 0:21:37.040 --> 0:21:40.200 terms of products, the next big things for Tesla are 0:21:40.280 --> 0:21:43.240 the rollout of UM, the technology that they call full 0:21:43.240 --> 0:21:47.520 stuff driving at that regulators haven't fully approved yet UM 0:21:47.520 --> 0:21:50.000 and the cyber truck. I mean, you know, this cyber 0:21:50.000 --> 0:21:52.600 truck is apparently coming later this year and the fanboys 0:21:52.640 --> 0:21:56.000