Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser. Every day
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Speaker 1: Global News. You've got to say, well, I was incredibly
Speaker 1: happy to bring in a new year. It was hard
Speaker 1: not to be. As we sit at the top of
Speaker 1: the show, Tim kind of put on edge by the
Speaker 1: NonStop and I feel like dark virus headlines that we've
Speaker 1: been seeing over and over again, even though I think
Speaker 1: so many Americans are numb to these numbers. Um, I
Speaker 1: think for a lot of us this holiday season they
Speaker 1: really head home. Yeah, I really, there was something, you know,
Speaker 1: you just I think being being beyond just tired about
Speaker 1: the situation. You're right that we all either know someone
Speaker 1: and we're really just kind of feeling this personally I
Speaker 1: do want to put out there that global coronavirus infections
Speaker 1: climbed above eighty five million after daily cases in the
Speaker 1: US are to a record of nearly three hundred thousand
Speaker 1: following the New Year holiday. So just some numbers to
Speaker 1: set the tone. Let's get our daily check on COVID
Speaker 1: nineteen doctors of our Chowdry, Senior VP in chief Information
Speaker 1: officer at Seattle Children's Hospital, joining us on the phone
Speaker 1: in Seattle. Dr Chowdery, nice to have you here with
Speaker 1: Tim and myself. It does feel like once again COVID
Speaker 1: is again out of control. How do you see it
Speaker 1: the afternoon? And thank you for having me on the show. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean it. Certainly we've seen an uptake in COVID spikes,
Speaker 1: but certainly in the state of Washington we have had
Speaker 1: a good handle on the actions that we've been taking
Speaker 1: in terms of a healthcare system, in terms of protecting
Speaker 1: the public. So I think we're coping well in Washington.
Speaker 1: Stay with it. I mean, you were so early to
Speaker 1: the pandemic, the earliest cases were in Washington, and absolutely
Speaker 1: and so it taught us a lot, you know, setting
Speaker 1: up emergency operations centers, me in our health care system
Speaker 1: and keeping track of this on a daily basis. Shutting
Speaker 1: down elective surgeries has all helped to bring us back
Speaker 1: on track. Certainly for pediatrics, we've seen less hospitalization. Where
Speaker 1: do you think we are now as a country versus
Speaker 1: where we were back in February, March, April, May are
Speaker 1: we are? We were in a worse place now. I
Speaker 1: think we've learned a lot, but I think we have
Speaker 1: a long way to go. I think there's a lot
Speaker 1: of logistical things that we need to do in terms
Speaker 1: of vaccine dissemination and tracking people and continuing to follow
Speaker 1: the steps that we need to do in terms of
Speaker 1: social distancing, masking, etcetera. I don't think we're through the
Speaker 1: worst of it. I think we're It's sort of that
Speaker 1: curve of we're reaching that peak and at some point
Speaker 1: we'll see that better situation. But I think we still
Speaker 1: have more work to do. Yeah, it certainly feels that way.
Speaker 1: Dr Charry. Technology Man, we've seen kind of the healthcare
Speaker 1: world um embrace telemedicine and really the use of technology increasingly.
Speaker 1: I just was kind of kidding with somebody this morning.
Speaker 1: I have more medical apps on my phone than I've
Speaker 1: ever had before, and that's what I'm using to check
Speaker 1: in and do things. Uh, it's really moved forward in
Speaker 1: a big way. First of all, what I want to
Speaker 1: ask you is, how could we use technology right now
Speaker 1: in a better way to get the vaccine out to
Speaker 1: more people? Maybe to help in the distribution of this vaccine.
Speaker 1: I think there's going to have to be more centralization
Speaker 1: of how you track the vaccine. I mean, at present,
Speaker 1: we're still handing out, you know, little pieces of paper
Speaker 1: to say you've been vaccinated. I think at the state
Speaker 1: level that needs to be more coordination in terms of
Speaker 1: is there going to be a standardized app. Certainly in
Speaker 1: our health system, we're trying to track that with our
Speaker 1: own electronic health record systems. But you know, that's another
Speaker 1: national sort of situation. Why do you think we've seen
Speaker 1: so many hiccups in the last couple of weeks when
Speaker 1: it comes to vaccine distribution? So many people have so
Speaker 1: many questions, When am I going to be able to
Speaker 1: get this vaccine? Who do I even call to get
Speaker 1: this vaccine? There's no clarity, and I know that varies
Speaker 1: by state, but in general in the United States, why
Speaker 1: has it been such a bumpy road? I just think
Speaker 1: it's it's something that we haven't prepared well for, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's that logistical nightmare of how do
Speaker 1: you get everybody vaccinated in the hundreds of millions of
Speaker 1: people we had time to compare. That's what's frustrating, I
Speaker 1: think to a lot of Americans. Yeah, and I think
Speaker 1: it's not been It's been disjointed, hasn't it in terms
Speaker 1: of every state has had a different strategy in a
Speaker 1: different plan, and information technology was probably going to be
Speaker 1: the way to pull all of this together. But then
Speaker 1: what you don't want is the situation you're describing. You know,
Speaker 1: I now have to log into fire applications to find
Speaker 1: out what's happening. And then there's also the equity issue
Speaker 1: in the country, right, because not everybody has access to
Speaker 1: the internet or a smartphone or a laptop, So how
Speaker 1: would we cater for those patients that don't have those
Speaker 1: those things available? Is there a conversation that you think
Speaker 1: we need to be having with the Trump administration and
Speaker 1: the folks in Washington so that we can all of
Speaker 1: a sudden make this work better and and work out
Speaker 1: the logistical and distribution problems that we're not having that
Speaker 1: we need to well, I think my hope is at
Speaker 1: a state level we are having those conversations. Certainly, that
Speaker 1: would be my hope. If that's actually happening practically, in
Speaker 1: practical terms, I wouldn't be aware of that, but I
Speaker 1: think that's what you need to do, is you need
Speaker 1: to have a standardized approach, and then that approach is
Speaker 1: then passed down from the government to the various states. Certainly,
Speaker 1: you know, I'm I'm from the UK originally, and the
Speaker 1: UK health system has had a top down, centralized government
Speaker 1: approach to how a vaccine would be disseminated, and then
Speaker 1: different health systems have been told this is what's going
Speaker 1: to happen, and maybe we need more of that. Dr Chawdrey,
Speaker 1: Carol and I were talking about children and the vaccine.
Speaker 1: When it comes to children. What is the latest research
Speaker 1: that you're seeing about when we can expect a definitive
Speaker 1: answer as to when children can or cannot actually get vaccinated. Well,
Speaker 1: at present, as you know, it's not a proof for
Speaker 1: anybody in the sixteen Certainly people are working on when
Speaker 1: that will happen. But you know, I'm in technology, not
Speaker 1: specifically on the clinical side, so I don't have a
Speaker 1: current timeline as to when a vaccine will be approved
Speaker 1: for the kids, but it is. You know, it's just
Speaker 1: a reminder that we're still learning. There's still things that
Speaker 1: we have to learn about, uh, the COVID nineteen vaccines
Speaker 1: that are that are out there currently. It's just a
Speaker 1: reminder that we we still don't know everything, and especially
Speaker 1: when it comes to a younger population, which I think
Speaker 1: everyone would say, you know, it's so key to getting
Speaker 1: those schools back open. I mean, I wonder how you
Speaker 1: look at that situation. Um, you know, you obviously focus
Speaker 1: on technology when it plays into the medical world. Technology
Speaker 1: has been crucial, certainly for schooling this time around, but
Speaker 1: there's nothing like kids being back in classrooms. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: think kids do need that personal interaction that helps develop
Speaker 1: them for the future. And certainly even even at adult level,
Speaker 1: we're seeing that disjoint between virtual working versus face to
Speaker 1: face communications. So I think there's definitely an impact, but
Speaker 1: there's still a lot to learn. And you were also
Speaker 1: assuming that of the population will actually take this vaccine.
Speaker 1: Do you think do you think that there's going to
Speaker 1: be a significant I mean, I'm even hearing this among
Speaker 1: healthcare workers who are not comfortable, doctors who are not
Speaker 1: comfortable taking it. How do you see it? What are
Speaker 1: you hearing among your community? Well, if you if you
Speaker 1: look at the data for the state of Washington for
Speaker 1: flu vaccination, only about fifty of the people every season
Speaker 1: take the flu vaccination. So we were applying that same
Speaker 1: statistic to it, which is an unknown vaccine that people
Speaker 1: don't necessarily trust. And I don't even think we're going
Speaker 1: to reach Yeah, I mean I I hope we don't
Speaker 1: see that that type those numbers. I think the other
Speaker 1: side of that is that we could see you know,
Speaker 1: I think people are more concerned and a lot of
Speaker 1: people are more concerned about the effects of COVID than
Speaker 1: they are about the effects of the flu, despite what
Speaker 1: we heard from the President verily very early on in
Speaker 1: this pandemic. Um Dr Chargery, I want to talk a
Speaker 1: little bit about technology in the way that you've used
Speaker 1: technology to transform the patient experience at the hospital, especially
Speaker 1: with with kids, because when kids are in the hospital,
Speaker 1: and when anyone's in the hospital, they need to be
Speaker 1: around people who love them and people who support them. Um,
Speaker 1: what changes have you had to make to visitation in
Speaker 1: the hospital and how have you used technology to help
Speaker 1: bridge some of those divides. So, certainly there's been an
Speaker 1: acceleration to digital transformation throughout healthcare. Because of the pandemic,
Speaker 1: we've we've had to restrict the number of visitors by
Speaker 1: bedside to one parent, and we've deployed iPads at the
Speaker 1: bedside so that children can talk to their caregivers remotely.
Speaker 1: So there's been a massive influx of We weren't doing
Speaker 1: a lot of telehealth, but we really have spiked in
Speaker 1: that telehealth space. And at the same time, we've we've
Speaker 1: made sure that the employees, not all employees, need to
Speaker 1: come in to work. So we've gone from almost zero
Speaker 1: people working from home to over four thousand people working
Speaker 1: from home now and we've done that on a hyper
Speaker 1: converged infrastructure with new Tanics with what I'm sorry say
Speaker 1: that again. So the technology we've used as new Tanics
Speaker 1: hyper converged infrastructure to allow all of this remote working
Speaker 1: and then enable telehealth and telemedicine with the hardware at
Speaker 1: the bedside of these iPads available to kids. That's really access. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's pretty that's pretty significant. Um. Yeah, it's just you know,
Speaker 1: interesting to se see how you know, as they say,
Speaker 1: stress and strain often leads to disruption, and we certainly
Speaker 1: were seeing it playing out here. Doctors a far chowdery.
Speaker 1: Thank you so much, appreciate it. Senior VP, Chief Information
Speaker 1: Officer at Seattle Children's Hospital on the phone from Seattle.
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. Well,
Speaker 1: it's a New Year's tradition when we check in with
Speaker 1: Hindsight Capital. That is the mythical hedge fund is only
Speaker 1: John Author, senior editor for Bloomberg Markets and Bloomberg Opinion
Speaker 1: calumnists can do. John is also author of The Fearful
Speaker 1: Rise of Markets, amongst some other books. He joins us
Speaker 1: on the phone in New York City along with Bloomberg
Speaker 1: Business Week editor Joel Weber with us as well on
Speaker 1: the phone in Brooklyn. Hindsight Capital. I love this. It's
Speaker 1: the hedge fund that just gets it right. All my money.
Speaker 1: Oh that it were true, Joel, you brought this, You
Speaker 1: brought the store our attention. We love this story. Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's a It's an annual occurrence of John's and one
Speaker 1: that you know, we're just doing a modest adaptation for
Speaker 1: this forthcoming issue. Of the magazine. But but John, I
Speaker 1: wanted to ask you, like, where did you originally get
Speaker 1: the idea for the Conceit? Okay, the original idea was
Speaker 1: way back in two thousand and eight, the you know,
Speaker 1: the Great Crisis year, and I started getting really obnoxious
Speaker 1: emails come December from people claiming that they'd actually seen
Speaker 1: this coming and that they were making huge amounts of money.
Speaker 1: Uh So I then, um, so a lot of which
Speaker 1: I considered to be you know, blatant tin site. So
Speaker 1: then just tried tried with the next size, just with
Speaker 1: a Bloomberg terminal, seeing how you could have made money
Speaker 1: in two thousand and eight, almost all of which involved,
Speaker 1: you know, betting shorts on stuff. In two thousand and eight,
Speaker 1: there were there were very few things that actually made
Speaker 1: you any significant amount of money. Uh And yes, people
Speaker 1: loved it, three or four people. I was working for
Speaker 1: the Financial Times then, but even Financial Times readers were
Speaker 1: in several cases dumb enough to write me letters asking
Speaker 1: for fran Hindsight capital address, complaining bitterly that they weren't
Speaker 1: in the Bloomberg term and also was I sure these
Speaker 1: guys were legits? Um this is one of the few
Speaker 1: years I haven't had anything like that, so I've generally
Speaker 1: felt the need to spoil the joke by mentioning up
Speaker 1: top that it was imaginary. Now that I've grasped that
Speaker 1: people didn't realize that there was such a thing as
Speaker 1: a fund that could foresee the future and would make
Speaker 1: nothing but trades that more than double their money every year.
Speaker 1: So there we go, your own h G Wells, I thinking,
Speaker 1: were the world hinds capital? Well, so John, we're let's
Speaker 1: start in Rio where you decided to base Hindsight capital
Speaker 1: this year. Why Rio Rio is because the Brazilian rail
Speaker 1: was by far the weakest currency of the year, and
Speaker 1: money illusion is a wonderful thing. If you're the weak
Speaker 1: of the currency in which you're investing, the better it
Speaker 1: will appear you have done. So the dollar actually had
Speaker 1: quite a poor year. The dollar flatter's quite a lot
Speaker 1: of returns, but the real dropped by more than twenty
Speaker 1: percent against the against the dollars, so you could automatically
Speaker 1: juice up your returns by more than twenty percents just
Speaker 1: by doing that. Um So a number of if you
Speaker 1: if you invested in the Fang stocks, which we're going
Speaker 1: to come to later, the big Internet platform stocks like
Speaker 1: Netflix and Google. You almost exactly doubled your money last
Speaker 1: year in dollars, and you made sending a hundred and
Speaker 1: forty percent in Yale's first of all go to Rio.
Speaker 1: Also because a great idea to shelter last year in
Speaker 1: in Rio. He moved the office to somewhere above with
Speaker 1: a view over eper deeper, name of beach and totally
Speaker 1: double all these trades that are going to double or
Speaker 1: triple your money and enjoy yourself for a year. Totally, dobously,
Speaker 1: quite sensible thing to do. Well, speaking about lockdown lifestyle,
Speaker 1: hindsight was all in on that one. Yes, I mean again,
Speaker 1: was it that difficult to see if you knew that
Speaker 1: a pandemic was coming? You know it really wasn't. So
Speaker 1: there are a number of ways to bet on it.
Speaker 1: One of the one of the best ones was to
Speaker 1: invest in the internet retailers, not just Amazon. There were
Speaker 1: things like It actually did better than Amazon in sensic terms,
Speaker 1: and shorts the really good ones to bet against because
Speaker 1: a lot of a lot of the traditional retailers were
Speaker 1: already in bankruptcy. You're very weak at the beginning of
Speaker 1: the year, but you could bet on real estate investment
Speaker 1: trusts holding retail regional malls, the the guys who hold
Speaker 1: the real estate for these stores once they go bust.
Speaker 1: And if you put those two trades together, you shorted, um,
Speaker 1: you shorted retail malls and stashed all your money into
Speaker 1: internet retailers. You tripled your money, Which isn't bad in
Speaker 1: one year or all the other one. Yes, So, John,
Speaker 1: I just wanted to ask about, you know, the other
Speaker 1: phenomenon which I do feel perhaps a lot of investors
Speaker 1: did take advantage of. Was this ability to know that,
Speaker 1: you know, when in crisis, central banks are going to
Speaker 1: print a lot of money, slash rates for money. What
Speaker 1: was the best way to take advantage of that? There
Speaker 1: were well, there were many, Um. I think one of
Speaker 1: the easiest ones was too bet on a housing market
Speaker 1: boom based on the the the cheaper mortgages that would
Speaker 1: come through. So you bet on lumber futures, which is
Speaker 1: where a housing rebuilding boom will show up first. Uh.
Speaker 1: And you bet against mortgage rates, which which finance mortgages,
Speaker 1: which obviously make very little money. Indeed, when rates go down,
Speaker 1: to go down to zilch and that again roughly tripled
Speaker 1: your money. Or you could just go for whatever there
Speaker 1: is the most duration, like people would uh invest in
Speaker 1: whatever was most interest rate sensitive, which means the longest
Speaker 1: duration possible, the longest into the future possible. So Austria
Speaker 1: issued three years ago a century bond. You don't get
Speaker 1: your money back until the seventeen and if you put
Speaker 1: money into that, you lent to Austria, not the strongest
Speaker 1: governments in Europe. Uh, and you've made something like seventy
Speaker 1: We don't have a ton of time left. And I
Speaker 1: just wanted to ask, you've been doing this for a
Speaker 1: dozen years at this point, Um, what are the lessons
Speaker 1: we can glean from from doing this at the end
Speaker 1: of every year? Like, what is the big takeaway for
Speaker 1: readers and listeners? You just people just don't know what's
Speaker 1: going to work. People don't know what's going to work.
Speaker 1: I think two things. One is when you see what
Speaker 1: things like what was it is possible, you should just
Speaker 1: bear in mind that, uh, these are what these are
Speaker 1: what would have worked, and often by definition they surprised people.
Speaker 1: So always cover your backside, never expect to actually do
Speaker 1: as well as hindsight capital. The other one I would
Speaker 1: say is that it's not a fair benchmark for anybody.
Speaker 1: We all of us have to cover the risk that
Speaker 1: we might just be wrong. The other thing is, though
Speaker 1: all in all seriousness, have to have some confidence in
Speaker 1: your convictions. It will take it sometimes, it takes a while,
Speaker 1: but if you just really think through the macro logic,
Speaker 1: there's a there's a yeah, there's a pandemic coming. Asia
Speaker 1: will deal with it better, Europe won't. H and central
Speaker 1: banks or Princess a response most of these things, roughly speaking,
Speaker 1: you could have got. You actually didn't need a ton
Speaker 1: of hindsight this year, like you could figure it out
Speaker 1: kind of how this was going to play out. So
Speaker 1: so score for this one. But listen, who knows about
Speaker 1: one will bring. But we'll look forward to what hindsight
Speaker 1: capital will be up too in the new year. John Authors,
Speaker 1: Senior editor at Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg Opinion columnists, took him
Speaker 1: out on Twitter at John Author's also at Bloomberg dot com.
Speaker 1: Jill Webber, Editor Bloomberg Business Week on the remote access
Speaker 1: from Brooklyn, This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer
Speaker 1: from Bloomberg Radio. Once again, shares of Tesla bucking the
Speaker 1: overall market sell off stock was up as much as
Speaker 1: five and a half percent today On news at Tesla, Uh,
Speaker 1: coming close to meeting it's five hundred thousand vehicle deliveries
Speaker 1: goal for twenties. So let's get to the person who
Speaker 1: knows all things Tesla and Elon Musk. Bloomberg Technology reporter
Speaker 1: Dana Hall are joining us on the phone from San Francisco. Danna,
Speaker 1: thanks for your patients as we were dealing with some
Speaker 1: live breaking news. So Tesla, man it is up again,
Speaker 1: starting off the new year on a strong note. Tell
Speaker 1: us about the vehicle deliveries goal um and what it
Speaker 1: really meant for the company. Sure, so, Elon Musk had
Speaker 1: set a goal of delivering a five hundred thousand cars,
Speaker 1: and then when the pandemic hit, people really questioned whether
Speaker 1: that was doable. Uh, then it seems like they would.
Speaker 1: They were going to meet it, and on Saturday Tesla
Speaker 1: released the numbers. They were just a hair short, like
Speaker 1: fifty cars. So basically the market is saying they met it.
Speaker 1: I mean, you can quibble with whether they really met
Speaker 1: it or not, but you know, this is pretty extraordinary
Speaker 1: for giving the pandemic and given the fact that many
Speaker 1: consumers are kind of holding onto whatever shavings they have,
Speaker 1: and it just sort of bodes well for the new year.
Speaker 1: It kind of sets them up. Now everyone is wondering
Speaker 1: what kind of guidance they're going to give for total deliveries,
Speaker 1: and we should learn more about that when Tesla reports
Speaker 1: earnings later this month, right, So now it's all about
Speaker 1: the guidance, right then, I mean, what are what are
Speaker 1: people looking for in terms of numbers? Do you think
Speaker 1: I mean on the last on a Q three or
Speaker 1: you call elan sort of hedge, but someone said do
Speaker 1: you think you could deliver eight hundred thousand? And Ellen said, well,
Speaker 1: you're not far off. So people are thinking like at
Speaker 1: least seven fifty, maybe eight fifty. You know, all of
Speaker 1: depends on China um and in the model. Why but
Speaker 1: you remember, you know, this is also the year that
Speaker 1: Tesla is building new factories in Berlin and Austin, so
Speaker 1: they will have more capacity. And I think, you know,
Speaker 1: one of the things that you're seeing some of the
Speaker 1: bears on Twitter I mentioned is well, of course they're
Speaker 1: delivering more cars now they have more factories. So you know,
Speaker 1: how is you know, are they really still growing or
Speaker 1: is it just that they now have more capacity. But um,
Speaker 1: you know, it's just been an extraordinary year for the
Speaker 1: company and they're heading into one and a very strong position. Yeah, totally.
Speaker 1: So what are your expectations that you know, what might
Speaker 1: be some of the main stories for Tesla, Because I
Speaker 1: do wonder, Dana, and you know this company, you know
Speaker 1: better than most. I do feel like Elon Musk is
Speaker 1: someone who can juggle a lot. But you are building,
Speaker 1: you know, some massive facilities here in the US or
Speaker 1: more massive facilities also in Berlin, and at the same time,
Speaker 1: you've got to make sure that output is kept up,
Speaker 1: and at the same time you're facing you know, greater
Speaker 1: competition in the Chinese market, which is so important to
Speaker 1: your future. Like how do you juggle all that? So
Speaker 1: I just wonder what you're thinking might be kind of
Speaker 1: some of the big themes for Tesla this year. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, I think the big theme for the year
Speaker 1: is just sort of scaling operations globally and relying more
Speaker 1: on the kind of bench of talent that he has
Speaker 1: a Tesla and other executives. It will be interesting to
Speaker 1: see where Ellen spends his time. I mean, he told
Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal right before the holidays that he has
Speaker 1: moved to Texas, where he's focusing both on the Giga
Speaker 1: factory in Austin, but also, you know, SpaceX has huge
Speaker 1: projects underway in terms of building another rocket called Starship UM,
Speaker 1: and so he's going to be spending a lot of
Speaker 1: his time in Texas. Uh. You know, I think in
Speaker 1: terms of products, the next big things for Tesla are
Speaker 1: the rollout of UM, the technology that they call full
Speaker 1: stuff driving at that regulators haven't fully approved yet UM
Speaker 1: and the cyber truck. I mean, you know, this cyber
Speaker 1: truck is apparently coming later this year and the fanboys
Speaker 1: are very eager for any details on that UM. And
Speaker 1: then I think it'll be interesting to see what other
Speaker 1: markets Tesla enters. I mean, obviously, China is the world's
Speaker 1: largest auto market, and that's going to be critically important.
Speaker 1: But you know, we've heard a lot of noise about
Speaker 1: Tesla entering India and Israel and potentially South America, and
Speaker 1: so if you look at the global map, there are
Speaker 1: a lot of markets where Tesla doesn't have any operations.
Speaker 1: So how are they going to grow in terms of
Speaker 1: just entering new countries? Yeah, And I want I wonder too,
Speaker 1: just about in terms of keeping up this momentum here,
Speaker 1: because for so many years DNA it was just this,
Speaker 1: it was this supply problem. Right. The interest was there,
Speaker 1: the demand was there, but the supply wasn't necessarily there.
Speaker 1: So how do they keep growing that? How do they
Speaker 1: keep growing these numbers to satisfy investors who have sent
Speaker 1: the stock higher by what? As you note in your article, Yeah,
Speaker 1: it's pretty it's pretty unbelievable. I mean, so that's so
Speaker 1: that's the fundamental question, right, Like for so for years,
Speaker 1: you know, Musk said that the problem was production. We're
Speaker 1: in production. How you know we're having all these issues.
Speaker 1: They struggled to ramp up them on all three then
Speaker 1: they but then basically they figured it out. And now
Speaker 1: they've introduced the model why and as far as I
Speaker 1: could tell, the model why, you know, the production ramp
Speaker 1: has been okay. I mean every you know, there's a
Speaker 1: lot of stuff on Twitter about you know, rubes falling
Speaker 1: off and these panel gaps and what. You know, you
Speaker 1: don't want to hear that when you're getting a car.
Speaker 1: But but fundamentally like it, you know, it's they seem
Speaker 1: to have gotten the production strained out. So then the
Speaker 1: question was like well, what really is the demand for
Speaker 1: this car? And in a pandemic, are people really going
Speaker 1: to be buying new cars? And it sounds like the
Speaker 1: truth is that actually, in a pandemic, people are more
Speaker 1: inclined to buy five cars because they're worried about taking
Speaker 1: public transportation. And you know, I just can't hammer enough.
Speaker 1: Climate change is so real to so many people now.
Speaker 1: I mean, the entire West Coast was on fire all summer,
Speaker 1: and so you have people that are saying, you know,
Speaker 1: my next car is going to be an electric and um,
Speaker 1: you know, Tesla will Tesla continues to try to drop
Speaker 1: the price as they you know, improve their manufacturing and
Speaker 1: drive down the back praised that the car will become
Speaker 1: more affordable to more people. Um, you know, people always
Speaker 1: ask me why don't I drive a Tesla And the
Speaker 1: truth is that I don't drive very much because I
Speaker 1: usually take transportation. But I'll feel like I've been working
Speaker 1: from home since March, so don't I'm not in the
Speaker 1: market to buy a new car. But um, you know,
Speaker 1: you're seeing more and more people buy Tesla's outside of
Speaker 1: their home state of California. You saw a lot of
Speaker 1: people take delivery in the last quarters of the year.
Speaker 1: And then remember too that there's this army of retail
Speaker 1: investors who have gotten grown wealth by investing in the
Speaker 1: stock and now they can afford the car where maybe previous.
Speaker 1: It's a good point. Yeah, listen, we as a family,
Speaker 1: we think the next car, we want it to be
Speaker 1: an evy or you know something that isn't you know,
Speaker 1: an alternative vehicle. But I guess evs are all the
Speaker 1: only traice. You don't can do hydrogen cells yet that's
Speaker 1: not there. All right, Danna always um a great catch
Speaker 1: up with you, Danna Hall. She's technology put at Bloomberg
Speaker 1: News on the phone from San Francisco. As we mentioned,
Speaker 1: uh Tesla shares up about three and a half percent
Speaker 1: as we speak. Journal. Yeah, but you let me drive. No,
Speaker 1: no, no no, honey, please, I'll do the right drivel. I
Speaker 1: want to drive. Just drive. It's good question trying. This
Speaker 1: is the drive to the globe. Give me thanks, we'll
Speaker 1: try us down on Bloomberg Radio. All right, first trading
Speaker 1: day one. We're just a few minutes away, about ten
Speaker 1: minutes away from that closing bell. Time for the drive
Speaker 1: to the close and back with us. As Aaron Kennon,
Speaker 1: co founder and chief executive officer, Clear Harbor Asset Management
Speaker 1: about nine million dollars in assets under management. Errands on
Speaker 1: the phone from Stanford, Connecticut, Aaron, Happy New Year. How
Speaker 1: are you just fine? Carol? Happy New Year to you.
Speaker 1: Into Tim? Well, thank you, thank you. Well we're doing okay.
Speaker 1: I think like the rest of us is kind of
Speaker 1: watching some of those virus headlines, trying to make sense
Speaker 1: of it and what it means kind of for the
Speaker 1: next couple of months in terms of everybody getting safe
Speaker 1: and vaccinated and then kind of our world reopening. How
Speaker 1: do you see it, how do you factor it in?
Speaker 1: What kind of visibility do you feel like you really
Speaker 1: have right now? Well, I think you know, as we
Speaker 1: approached today, UM, some new news over the weekend and
Speaker 1: and some sort of evolving news, and COVID vaccine rollout
Speaker 1: is certainly um one of them. It's it's of concern
Speaker 1: that is the speed at which we are rolling it
Speaker 1: up both here and frankly around the world. And we
Speaker 1: have the Georgia runoff, which is another significant variable which
Speaker 1: only a few weeks ago seemed to be tilting towards
Speaker 1: the GOP and now seems to be tilting the other way,
Speaker 1: which has huge consequences for stimulus and the overall balance
Speaker 1: of power and um and I think the third variable
Speaker 1: that's going on markets is probably been an evolution over
Speaker 1: the last week or so, is this notion that the
Speaker 1: transition of power may may in fact be a bit
Speaker 1: more rocky between now and inauguration day. So quite disconcerting. Wow, Well,
Speaker 1: let's talk about Georgia because that's happening tomorrow. If Democrats win,
Speaker 1: What do markets do? Well? I think that different underlying
Speaker 1: components of the market will do different things, right, so
Speaker 1: the FED is going to keep their foot on the
Speaker 1: gas pedals. So this sort of idea that we see
Speaker 1: massive fiscal stimulus or that we see a massive infrastructure
Speaker 1: program tim, I don't think it necessarily means that we
Speaker 1: see higher rates, so um um. With that said, I
Speaker 1: think there'd be some concern around on the regulatory side
Speaker 1: of the docket, so you would probably see a different
Speaker 1: sort of shift in the paradigm around sort of sector
Speaker 1: rotation um and uh and And frankly, I think we
Speaker 1: have to also keep an objective eye on what what
Speaker 1: does a a A A move in Georgia by the
Speaker 1: Democrats of victory by those two uh, and Georgia mean, Um,
Speaker 1: the Senate will still be very much balanced. It will
Speaker 1: just be things slightly and there are some you know,
Speaker 1: conservative or moderately conservative Democrats that can still certainly keep
Speaker 1: things towards the center. Well, that's you know, I think
Speaker 1: worth exploring a little bit deeper airing, because I think
Speaker 1: we do need to understand what the outcomes mean really
Speaker 1: when it comes to maybe new legislation or new regulations.
Speaker 1: I mean safe to say at least the first six months,
Speaker 1: if not longer, of a Biden administration is going to
Speaker 1: be focused on doing everything in anything to get the
Speaker 1: labor market back to as close to normal as possible
Speaker 1: and the economy. Isn't it safe to say that we
Speaker 1: can make that assumption? I think so absolutely, and in
Speaker 1: fact that those are the trends that we've seen over
Speaker 1: the last few weeks and a few months. We've gone
Speaker 1: from negative growth towards two positive growth. And I think
Speaker 1: two thousand and twenty will probably end up being a
Speaker 1: minus called three and a percent GDP growth here, and
Speaker 1: if all goes as planned, I think most estimates are
Speaker 1: calling for something like four percent growth. So uh, some
Speaker 1: things will of course be out of the control of Congress,
Speaker 1: which is, you know, will will another strain of covid
Speaker 1: um prove less efficacious on the vaccine front. It doesn't
Speaker 1: seem like that's the case. There was concerned this morning
Speaker 1: that a strain out of South Africa was in fact
Speaker 1: potentially not uh covered by the vaccine. But I've read
Speaker 1: some expert opinions that that's not in fact the case.
Speaker 1: But we will see many speed bumps along the road here. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I want to go back to what you said about
Speaker 1: the time between now an inauguration day and uncertainty between
Speaker 1: now and then. I mean, we are literally sixteen days
Speaker 1: away from that, just over two weeks. What can happen
Speaker 1: between now and then? That's going to speak investors well, Tam,
Speaker 1: I I I hesitate on that because, um, it's only speculation,
Speaker 1: but it would it would most likely emanate from UM
Speaker 1: Pennsylvania have UM and it would probably uh not involve
Speaker 1: the eleven Senators unfortunately that are not going to vote
Speaker 1: in an affirmative way on the sixth or the hundred
Speaker 1: odd House Republicans who are not going to vote an
Speaker 1: affirmative way on the sixth UM. And I I don't
Speaker 1: think that's likely that they vote no on the sixth. Oh, well,
Speaker 1: they've already claimed, they already stated that they would, so
Speaker 1: I think we have to take them for their word.
Speaker 1: But I think the reality is that the outcome is
Speaker 1: cooked in the in the books when we look at
Speaker 1: the numbers, president president like Biden will be our next president. Um.
Speaker 1: But it's a sad commentary. I watched all one two
Speaker 1: minutes of the telephone call between the Georgia Secretary State
Speaker 1: and the President on Saturday night, and I was, even
Speaker 1: as an American, but frankly as a Republican, appalled by
Speaker 1: what I heard, um coming out of the mouth of
Speaker 1: our commander in chief. Just very disheartening. Well, and you know,
Speaker 1: just got a few minutes or a few seconds left
Speaker 1: here erin. I do wonder, you know, more republic kinds
Speaker 1: maybe not coming out and saying, well, wait a minute.
Speaker 1: You know, we're talking about our democracy in our system
Speaker 1: that has been in place for you know, a few
Speaker 1: hundred years here, and I do wonder what that might
Speaker 1: be foreshadowing in terms of how the Democrats and Republicans
Speaker 1: ultimately work on the other side of you know, in
Speaker 1: a Biden White House, are you a little nervous about
Speaker 1: how that might work or not work, and just got
Speaker 1: about forty seconds here. Yeah, I mean, I'm an idealist
Speaker 1: in so many ways, and I believe that when good
Speaker 1: intention people come together, they try to find compromise to
Speaker 1: move the proverbial ball down the field. And I do
Speaker 1: fear that the water has been poisoned and that may
Speaker 1: be less likely to happen now going forward. But if
Speaker 1: you look at Biden's history as a senator dating back
Speaker 1: many decades, he is someone who wants to work with
Speaker 1: the other side. Hopefully he'll he'll he'll strive to do that. Yeah,
Speaker 1: figures crossed on that, no doubt about it. Um. Aaron,
Speaker 1: thank you so much, always thoughtful. Aaron Kennon, co founder,
Speaker 1: chief executive officer, Clear Harbor Asset Management about nine redmillion
Speaker 1: in assets under management, on the phone from Stanford, Connecticut.
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Download
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