WEBVTT - A Bubble Made Up of Millions 0:00:03.040 --> 0:00:07.640 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two hundred 0:00:07.720 --> 0:00:11.800 and sixty one since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. 0:00:12.400 --> 0:00:17.000 Today's main story A cluster of provinces in Canada banded 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:21.599 together to form a rule following COVID bubble. They ended 0:00:21.680 --> 0:00:25.400 up with outcomes far better than the rest of the country. 0:00:26.120 --> 0:00:30.040 But what lengths will these provinces go to to keep 0:00:30.040 --> 0:00:35.360 the bubble from bursting? But first, here's what happened in 0:00:35.520 --> 0:00:47.400 virus news today. But Derrena made more progress on its 0:00:47.440 --> 0:00:52.800 promising coronavirus vaccine. The company is requesting emergency clearance for 0:00:52.840 --> 0:00:57.120 the drug today. That's after a new analysis showed that 0:00:57.160 --> 0:01:01.680 it's highly effective. The price Mary analysis found the vaccine 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:05.400 was over nine percent effective, The results f lining up 0:01:05.400 --> 0:01:10.200 with preliminary findings released earlier this month. Another plus, the 0:01:10.280 --> 0:01:14.800 drug could be especially effective at preventing severe cases of 0:01:14.840 --> 0:01:18.000 the disease. None of the participants in the trial who 0:01:18.040 --> 0:01:23.880 would receive the vaccine developed severe COVID nineteen. New York 0:01:23.959 --> 0:01:28.400 City's positive COVID nineteen test rate jumped above four percent 0:01:28.800 --> 0:01:31.560 based on a seven day average. According to Mayor Bill 0:01:31.600 --> 0:01:36.200 de Blasio. De Blasio also announced that in person viewing 0:01:36.360 --> 0:01:40.080 of the Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree, a huge tourist draw 0:01:40.400 --> 0:01:44.600 would be controlled to allow for social distancing. The mayor 0:01:44.680 --> 0:01:48.600 closed public schools earlier in November when the average positive 0:01:48.640 --> 0:01:53.360 test rate hit three percent, but will reopen schools next 0:01:53.360 --> 0:01:59.120 week for younger students. Finally, cases of coronavirus in England 0:01:59.280 --> 0:02:04.080 fell ear percent after lockdown measures were rolled out in November. 0:02:04.520 --> 0:02:08.440 According to a new study. The finding show cases were 0:02:08.560 --> 0:02:11.440 rising as the country entered a four week lockdown on 0:02:11.560 --> 0:02:17.240 November five. As national restrictions were rolled out, cases declined sharply. 0:02:18.000 --> 0:02:21.799 The report by Imperial College London and IPSOS Mori UK 0:02:22.520 --> 0:02:33.440 was published today and now for today's main story. In Canada, 0:02:33.720 --> 0:02:37.400 the COVID nineteen outbreak has affected much of the country. 0:02:37.840 --> 0:02:41.200 In Quebec, where three in five of Canada's virus deaths 0:02:41.200 --> 0:02:46.840 have hit Rage over new lockdowns is palpable in Ontario. Meanwhile, 0:02:47.280 --> 0:02:51.520 I see us are filling up out West caseloads are 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:57.040 hitting records, but four eastern Canadian provinces comprising two point 0:02:57.120 --> 0:03:02.280 four million people have banded together, barred outsiders and huge 0:03:02.360 --> 0:03:06.160 tightly to health guidelines. As a result, the region has 0:03:06.160 --> 0:03:10.120 a COVID nineteen death rate that's one tenth the rest 0:03:10.160 --> 0:03:14.840 of the countries, with almost no one noticing Atlantic Canada 0:03:14.919 --> 0:03:19.120 has become a pandemic. Shangri law I spoke to Montreal 0:03:19.200 --> 0:03:24.040 Bureau chief Sandrine Rostello about the outpost of quiet obedience 0:03:24.360 --> 0:03:38.720 that calls itself the Atlantic Bubble. What exactly is Canada's 0:03:38.800 --> 0:03:42.880 Atlantic Bubble, how does it work exactly and when did 0:03:42.880 --> 0:03:46.480 it come into effect? So the bubble is something that 0:03:46.680 --> 0:03:51.400 four provinces in Eastern Canada created to sort of salvage 0:03:51.440 --> 0:03:55.280 their their summer season. You had four provinces, so there 0:03:55.320 --> 0:03:59.680 are New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, then Newfoundland 0:03:59.680 --> 0:04:03.680 and Leaped a door, which each had pretty good results 0:04:03.800 --> 0:04:06.360 at the end of the first lockdown. They they were 0:04:06.520 --> 0:04:10.680 cautious in reopening, their cases were really low, and they 0:04:10.720 --> 0:04:15.800 each had basically very stringent rules about entering the province. Actually, 0:04:15.880 --> 0:04:19.240 if you are just a Canadian who wanted to go 0:04:19.400 --> 0:04:22.480 visit Nova Scotia during the summer, it was just not 0:04:22.600 --> 0:04:25.080 possible if you didn't have a really good reason, and 0:04:25.120 --> 0:04:28.280 even then you had to self quarantine for two weeks. 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:33.680 So these provinces basically said, um, you know what, we're 0:04:33.680 --> 0:04:36.360 going to open to one another so our residents can 0:04:36.520 --> 0:04:40.480 visit the other three provinces and we can have some tourism, 0:04:40.560 --> 0:04:43.760 because otherwise it was going to be a complete catastrophe 0:04:43.760 --> 0:04:49.039 for the economy. And and overall, how has the bubble done? 0:04:49.040 --> 0:04:52.279 I mean, how have those four provinces performed in comparison 0:04:52.320 --> 0:04:55.080 to the rest of Canada in terms of say, case 0:04:55.200 --> 0:04:59.200 rates or mortality. So they've had incredibly low numbers, and 0:04:59.240 --> 0:05:00.839 I think it was a big it under the radar 0:05:00.920 --> 0:05:04.600 for the longest time because these provinces, you know, altogether 0:05:04.760 --> 0:05:07.920 they have about two point four million people, so it's 0:05:07.960 --> 0:05:12.680 not a lot. They are their populations are aging, you know, 0:05:12.760 --> 0:05:15.560 especially in Newfoundland for instance, if you look at it, 0:05:15.640 --> 0:05:19.839 the the medium age is actually seven years higher than 0:05:20.000 --> 0:05:24.080 than Ontario. So they were very careful in the way 0:05:24.120 --> 0:05:27.000 they handle this. And they have a population that was 0:05:27.520 --> 0:05:30.760 quite compliant too, So they did really well. I mean, 0:05:30.880 --> 0:05:33.400 think of that p I. Of course, it's an island, 0:05:33.839 --> 0:05:38.040 but it has has had no depth at all. And 0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:41.200 if you look if you take the four provinces together 0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:44.400 and you bring back you bring that back to a 0:05:44.480 --> 0:05:48.679 rate per hundred thousand people. They've had about three deaths 0:05:48.720 --> 0:05:52.159 per hundred thousand people. If you compare that with Canada 0:05:52.200 --> 0:05:55.359 as a whole, that's one tenth. That gives you an 0:05:55.440 --> 0:05:58.880 idea they I think last night checked they had no 0:05:58.960 --> 0:06:01.960 COVID case in the hospital. These are things you you 0:06:02.040 --> 0:06:05.560 haven't heard of anywhere really. So they've they've done extremely well. 0:06:05.880 --> 0:06:11.440 They've been extremely cautious, and they've they've had um measures, 0:06:11.480 --> 0:06:16.440 you know, like safety measures that are respected. Even though 0:06:16.440 --> 0:06:19.960 this this bubble has been remarkably successful, we should say 0:06:20.040 --> 0:06:25.320 in terms of COVID nineteen, have there been any negative effects, um, 0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:29.680 let's say economically speaking, in terms of tourism or the 0:06:29.720 --> 0:06:34.120 Atlantic economy generally. Yeah, absolutely so. So first of all, 0:06:34.160 --> 0:06:37.720 you know, all economies are connected today, so you know 0:06:37.839 --> 0:06:41.320 the fact that uh, there's less demand from restaurants in 0:06:41.440 --> 0:06:45.520 New York for say, uh you know, lobster from Nova Scotia, 0:06:45.880 --> 0:06:49.200 or you know, all sorts the way exports in general 0:06:49.240 --> 0:06:52.520 have been affected. They've been hit for sure, but on 0:06:52.600 --> 0:06:57.359 top of that, you know the specially high um level 0:06:57.400 --> 0:07:01.560 of cautiousness costing them greatly on the tourism front. You 0:07:01.560 --> 0:07:04.160 know a lot of these places come to life during 0:07:04.200 --> 0:07:07.000 the summer. That the summer season is not very long. 0:07:07.120 --> 0:07:10.120 It can get pretty cold in Canada, and tourists just 0:07:10.160 --> 0:07:13.800 didn't come this year. For instance, in Nova Scotia in August, 0:07:14.200 --> 0:07:18.840 tourism was down sevent So. Yes, the Atlantic bubble enable 0:07:18.920 --> 0:07:23.080 people to travel and you know, visit within the bubble, 0:07:23.200 --> 0:07:27.000 but that can't replace you know, like people from Alberta 0:07:27.120 --> 0:07:30.720 and Ontario who also have the budget to spend. It 0:07:30.760 --> 0:07:34.520 has taken a big toll. I think people who are 0:07:34.600 --> 0:07:38.680 talked to in tourism have been patients, you know, but 0:07:38.720 --> 0:07:41.400 they're also looking at what can be done to open 0:07:41.480 --> 0:07:44.840 up the bubble, perhaps not just now because you know, 0:07:44.920 --> 0:07:48.680 the second wave is also affecting them somewhat, but down 0:07:48.680 --> 0:07:52.600 the road they hope to find a solution. Have there 0:07:52.600 --> 0:07:55.640 been any I mean, we've seen this across the board 0:07:55.800 --> 0:08:00.840 with COVID nineteen some unexpected economic developments. Have there been 0:08:00.960 --> 0:08:05.800 any bright spots economically speaking for the bubble real estate 0:08:06.680 --> 0:08:11.280 story of Canada? Yes, So what's been interesting is that 0:08:11.960 --> 0:08:15.160 the real estate market has been really dynamic. You know, 0:08:15.480 --> 0:08:19.480 the sort of things that people is routine in Ontario 0:08:19.640 --> 0:08:25.000 or in places like Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, people overbidding, bidding wars, 0:08:25.120 --> 0:08:28.000 that kind of thing is new to those business were 0:08:28.080 --> 0:08:31.320 not much has happened in recent years that the market, 0:08:31.320 --> 0:08:33.640 the real estate market was already starting to pick up, 0:08:33.679 --> 0:08:37.480 and that's been confirmed. You know, that's the the effect 0:08:37.559 --> 0:08:40.600 of people haven't spent much during the pandemic. They and 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:43.400 they want more space. We've seen that, you know, across 0:08:43.440 --> 0:08:47.000 the board, but also real estate brokers I talked to 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:52.120 said they've heard from locals that Marytimers as we call them, 0:08:52.320 --> 0:08:56.120 that made a move to Ontario movie els where in 0:08:56.160 --> 0:08:58.760 Canada for their career and now that they can work 0:08:58.760 --> 0:09:01.800 from home, that there looking into baying back home, or 0:09:02.120 --> 0:09:05.200 baby boomers looking to to come back and you know, 0:09:05.480 --> 0:09:09.480 cash out on that big mention they bought in Toronto 0:09:09.600 --> 0:09:13.680 and and come for much cheaper in their their home province. 0:09:15.040 --> 0:09:19.400 Despite this let's let's just say success of the Atlantic 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:23.000 travel bubble, it does seem like recently it has been 0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:28.400 in danger of popping. Right, so you know, these places 0:09:28.440 --> 0:09:32.000 are not immune from what's happening elsewhere. Just as a reminder, 0:09:32.640 --> 0:09:36.360 New Brunswick sits next to Quebec. Quebec you know, as 0:09:36.400 --> 0:09:39.880 had the most most death uh the whole of Canada. 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:41.960 At some point, I think it was about sixty percent 0:09:42.040 --> 0:09:45.559 of old Canadian COVID death happened in Quebec. So that 0:09:45.640 --> 0:09:49.559 was the main reason why New Brunswick really like made 0:09:49.600 --> 0:09:53.280 getting in much harder. That said, you know, uh, these 0:09:53.280 --> 0:09:56.760 provinces have a lot of workers who are so called 0:09:56.840 --> 0:10:00.120 rotational workers who who come in. There's a pro took 0:10:00.120 --> 0:10:02.640 called for them to sell fivesolate and tests and all 0:10:02.640 --> 0:10:06.720 these things, but they also cannot prevent their own residents 0:10:06.720 --> 0:10:10.280 from traveling elsewhere in Canada. There's been an increase in 0:10:10.480 --> 0:10:15.319 important cases over the past few weeks and that really 0:10:15.360 --> 0:10:18.520 scared off some of the provinces. So what we saw recently, 0:10:18.880 --> 0:10:23.280 um we saw Newfoundland and p I withdraw from the 0:10:23.320 --> 0:10:26.480 bubble for at least two weeks and and see what 0:10:26.559 --> 0:10:29.120 happens next. So you know, people have been talking about 0:10:29.120 --> 0:10:32.600 breaking the bubble falling apart. That really has nothing to 0:10:32.640 --> 0:10:35.960 look forward to in Canada at the moment. Uh, the 0:10:36.080 --> 0:10:39.200 numbers are still pretty good. What the characterized is this 0:10:39.280 --> 0:10:43.000 provinces is that they've had really low numbers. They've been 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:47.040 very cautious and so that's what they're doing right now. Again. 0:10:47.160 --> 0:10:49.720 You know, by saying, okay, let's get out of the bubble. 0:10:49.760 --> 0:10:53.240 We might come back, but numbers in Nova Scotia and 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:56.040 New bruns were called worrying us. So we were drawing 0:10:56.400 --> 0:11:00.440 for a bit and looking ahead. Obviously we have the 0:11:00.520 --> 0:11:05.160 holidays coming up um potentially a lot of interprovincial travel. 0:11:05.679 --> 0:11:08.520 Do you think that the bubble is likely to hold 0:11:08.720 --> 0:11:13.880 for say, December and into I think the bubble as 0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:17.960 as it is the internal travel perhaps. I think everyone's 0:11:18.000 --> 0:11:22.080 looking at this very closely. But but again, like for instance, 0:11:22.080 --> 0:11:24.400 I'll give you my own example and my my partners 0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:28.640 from New Brunswick and he hasn't seen his family for 0:11:28.640 --> 0:11:31.640 for more than a year, and there's no visiting for 0:11:31.720 --> 0:11:34.880 Christmas because even though technically it would be allowed in 0:11:35.520 --> 0:11:38.840 you would have to self isolate for two weeks on arrival, 0:11:39.280 --> 0:11:42.360 you know, and then what go back immediately to Montreal. 0:11:42.760 --> 0:11:45.880 I mean, these these rules, as long as they're here, 0:11:45.880 --> 0:11:49.199 are really going to deter travel from elsewhere in Canada. 0:11:49.280 --> 0:11:51.320 So I think they have this level of protection in 0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:56.280 place even for the holidays. That two weeks self isolation 0:11:56.280 --> 0:11:59.679 policy one that we see throughout Canada is obviously a 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:03.280 major deterrent um. But it sounds like there are plans 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:07.480 potentially that that that period could be shortened. Yeah, so 0:12:07.520 --> 0:12:10.520 what we're seeing right now in Alberta for the past 0:12:10.880 --> 0:12:13.360 almost five weeks I think, but five weeks now, there's 0:12:13.400 --> 0:12:16.680 been a pilot in place too to test people on 0:12:16.800 --> 0:12:20.080 arrival at the airport and also at a one land 0:12:20.080 --> 0:12:24.280 crossing and as soon as people get those tests while 0:12:24.320 --> 0:12:26.560 they self isolate because you know, when you get into 0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:29.360 Canada you have to self isolate for two weeks, and 0:12:29.920 --> 0:12:32.000 even if you're a resident, even if you come from 0:12:32.040 --> 0:12:34.480 a country with low risk and that has really hard 0:12:34.520 --> 0:12:38.840 international travel. So right now in Alberta, this pilot test 0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:42.760 people on arrival. Once they get their results usually after 0:12:42.920 --> 0:12:47.000 thirty one or thirty six hours, if it's negative, they 0:12:47.000 --> 0:12:49.720 can sort of go back to quasi normal life. They 0:12:50.200 --> 0:12:53.280 have to you know, test a second time. But that 0:12:53.360 --> 0:12:56.079 could be almost a game changer in the short term 0:12:56.120 --> 0:12:59.840 for the industry because if the quarantine could be short 0:13:00.200 --> 0:13:03.840 a lot more people presumably would travel. And that's something 0:13:03.960 --> 0:13:08.079 that Atlantic Provinces people in the tourism industry that depends 0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:11.360 so much on it are following closely because if their 0:13:11.440 --> 0:13:16.120 government were inspired to adopt something similar that would really 0:13:16.160 --> 0:13:25.200 help revive and salvage next summer. That was Sandre and Rostello, 0:13:25.559 --> 0:13:27.800 and that's it for our show today. For coverage of 0:13:27.800 --> 0:13:31.080 the outbreak from one twenty bureaus around the world, visit 0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:35.520 bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus and if you like the show, 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:38.160 please leave us a review and a rating on Apple 0:13:38.240 --> 0:13:41.440 Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more 0:13:41.480 --> 0:13:45.840 listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is 0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:50.120 produced by Top for Foreheads, Jordan's Gas Pure, Magnus Hendrickson, 0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:54.199 and Nick Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by 0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:58.840 Sandrin Rostello. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are 0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:03.240 Rick Shine and friend Cessca Levie. Francesca Levi is Bloomberg's 0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:05.680 out of podcasts. Thanks for listening.