Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two hundred
Speaker 1: and sixty one since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic.
Speaker 1: Today's main story A cluster of provinces in Canada banded
Speaker 1: together to form a rule following COVID bubble. They ended
Speaker 1: up with outcomes far better than the rest of the country.
Speaker 1: But what lengths will these provinces go to to keep
Speaker 1: the bubble from bursting? But first, here's what happened in
Speaker 1: virus news today. But Derrena made more progress on its
Speaker 1: promising coronavirus vaccine. The company is requesting emergency clearance for
Speaker 1: the drug today. That's after a new analysis showed that
Speaker 1: it's highly effective. The price Mary analysis found the vaccine
Speaker 1: was over nine percent effective, The results f lining up
Speaker 1: with preliminary findings released earlier this month. Another plus, the
Speaker 1: drug could be especially effective at preventing severe cases of
Speaker 1: the disease. None of the participants in the trial who
Speaker 1: would receive the vaccine developed severe COVID nineteen. New York
Speaker 1: City's positive COVID nineteen test rate jumped above four percent
Speaker 1: based on a seven day average. According to Mayor Bill
Speaker 1: de Blasio. De Blasio also announced that in person viewing
Speaker 1: of the Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree, a huge tourist draw
Speaker 1: would be controlled to allow for social distancing. The mayor
Speaker 1: closed public schools earlier in November when the average positive
Speaker 1: test rate hit three percent, but will reopen schools next
Speaker 1: week for younger students. Finally, cases of coronavirus in England
Speaker 1: fell ear percent after lockdown measures were rolled out in November.
Speaker 1: According to a new study. The finding show cases were
Speaker 1: rising as the country entered a four week lockdown on
Speaker 1: November five. As national restrictions were rolled out, cases declined sharply.
Speaker 1: The report by Imperial College London and IPSOS Mori UK
Speaker 1: was published today and now for today's main story. In Canada,
Speaker 1: the COVID nineteen outbreak has affected much of the country.
Speaker 1: In Quebec, where three in five of Canada's virus deaths
Speaker 1: have hit Rage over new lockdowns is palpable in Ontario. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: I see us are filling up out West caseloads are
Speaker 1: hitting records, but four eastern Canadian provinces comprising two point
Speaker 1: four million people have banded together, barred outsiders and huge
Speaker 1: tightly to health guidelines. As a result, the region has
Speaker 1: a COVID nineteen death rate that's one tenth the rest
Speaker 1: of the countries, with almost no one noticing Atlantic Canada
Speaker 1: has become a pandemic. Shangri law I spoke to Montreal
Speaker 1: Bureau chief Sandrine Rostello about the outpost of quiet obedience
Speaker 1: that calls itself the Atlantic Bubble. What exactly is Canada's
Speaker 1: Atlantic Bubble, how does it work exactly and when did
Speaker 1: it come into effect? So the bubble is something that
Speaker 1: four provinces in Eastern Canada created to sort of salvage
Speaker 1: their their summer season. You had four provinces, so there
Speaker 1: are New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, then Newfoundland
Speaker 1: and Leaped a door, which each had pretty good results
Speaker 1: at the end of the first lockdown. They they were
Speaker 1: cautious in reopening, their cases were really low, and they
Speaker 1: each had basically very stringent rules about entering the province. Actually,
Speaker 1: if you are just a Canadian who wanted to go
Speaker 1: visit Nova Scotia during the summer, it was just not
Speaker 1: possible if you didn't have a really good reason, and
Speaker 1: even then you had to self quarantine for two weeks.
Speaker 1: So these provinces basically said, um, you know what, we're
Speaker 1: going to open to one another so our residents can
Speaker 1: visit the other three provinces and we can have some tourism,
Speaker 1: because otherwise it was going to be a complete catastrophe
Speaker 1: for the economy. And and overall, how has the bubble done?
Speaker 1: I mean, how have those four provinces performed in comparison
Speaker 1: to the rest of Canada in terms of say, case
Speaker 1: rates or mortality. So they've had incredibly low numbers, and
Speaker 1: I think it was a big it under the radar
Speaker 1: for the longest time because these provinces, you know, altogether
Speaker 1: they have about two point four million people, so it's
Speaker 1: not a lot. They are their populations are aging, you know,
Speaker 1: especially in Newfoundland for instance, if you look at it,
Speaker 1: the the medium age is actually seven years higher than
Speaker 1: than Ontario. So they were very careful in the way
Speaker 1: they handle this. And they have a population that was
Speaker 1: quite compliant too, So they did really well. I mean,
Speaker 1: think of that p I. Of course, it's an island,
Speaker 1: but it has has had no depth at all. And
Speaker 1: if you look if you take the four provinces together
Speaker 1: and you bring back you bring that back to a
Speaker 1: rate per hundred thousand people. They've had about three deaths
Speaker 1: per hundred thousand people. If you compare that with Canada
Speaker 1: as a whole, that's one tenth. That gives you an
Speaker 1: idea they I think last night checked they had no
Speaker 1: COVID case in the hospital. These are things you you
Speaker 1: haven't heard of anywhere really. So they've they've done extremely well.
Speaker 1: They've been extremely cautious, and they've they've had um measures,
Speaker 1: you know, like safety measures that are respected. Even though
Speaker 1: this this bubble has been remarkably successful, we should say
Speaker 1: in terms of COVID nineteen, have there been any negative effects, um,
Speaker 1: let's say economically speaking, in terms of tourism or the
Speaker 1: Atlantic economy generally. Yeah, absolutely so. So first of all,
Speaker 1: you know, all economies are connected today, so you know
Speaker 1: the fact that uh, there's less demand from restaurants in
Speaker 1: New York for say, uh you know, lobster from Nova Scotia,
Speaker 1: or you know, all sorts the way exports in general
Speaker 1: have been affected. They've been hit for sure, but on
Speaker 1: top of that, you know the specially high um level
Speaker 1: of cautiousness costing them greatly on the tourism front. You
Speaker 1: know a lot of these places come to life during
Speaker 1: the summer. That the summer season is not very long.
Speaker 1: It can get pretty cold in Canada, and tourists just
Speaker 1: didn't come this year. For instance, in Nova Scotia in August,
Speaker 1: tourism was down sevent So. Yes, the Atlantic bubble enable
Speaker 1: people to travel and you know, visit within the bubble,
Speaker 1: but that can't replace you know, like people from Alberta
Speaker 1: and Ontario who also have the budget to spend. It
Speaker 1: has taken a big toll. I think people who are
Speaker 1: talked to in tourism have been patients, you know, but
Speaker 1: they're also looking at what can be done to open
Speaker 1: up the bubble, perhaps not just now because you know,
Speaker 1: the second wave is also affecting them somewhat, but down
Speaker 1: the road they hope to find a solution. Have there
Speaker 1: been any I mean, we've seen this across the board
Speaker 1: with COVID nineteen some unexpected economic developments. Have there been
Speaker 1: any bright spots economically speaking for the bubble real estate
Speaker 1: story of Canada? Yes, So what's been interesting is that
Speaker 1: the real estate market has been really dynamic. You know,
Speaker 1: the sort of things that people is routine in Ontario
Speaker 1: or in places like Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, people overbidding, bidding wars,
Speaker 1: that kind of thing is new to those business were
Speaker 1: not much has happened in recent years that the market,
Speaker 1: the real estate market was already starting to pick up,
Speaker 1: and that's been confirmed. You know, that's the the effect
Speaker 1: of people haven't spent much during the pandemic. They and
Speaker 1: they want more space. We've seen that, you know, across
Speaker 1: the board, but also real estate brokers I talked to
Speaker 1: said they've heard from locals that Marytimers as we call them,
Speaker 1: that made a move to Ontario movie els where in
Speaker 1: Canada for their career and now that they can work
Speaker 1: from home, that there looking into baying back home, or
Speaker 1: baby boomers looking to to come back and you know,
Speaker 1: cash out on that big mention they bought in Toronto
Speaker 1: and and come for much cheaper in their their home province.
Speaker 1: Despite this let's let's just say success of the Atlantic
Speaker 1: travel bubble, it does seem like recently it has been
Speaker 1: in danger of popping. Right, so you know, these places
Speaker 1: are not immune from what's happening elsewhere. Just as a reminder,
Speaker 1: New Brunswick sits next to Quebec. Quebec you know, as
Speaker 1: had the most most death uh the whole of Canada.
Speaker 1: At some point, I think it was about sixty percent
Speaker 1: of old Canadian COVID death happened in Quebec. So that
Speaker 1: was the main reason why New Brunswick really like made
Speaker 1: getting in much harder. That said, you know, uh, these
Speaker 1: provinces have a lot of workers who are so called
Speaker 1: rotational workers who who come in. There's a pro took
Speaker 1: called for them to sell fivesolate and tests and all
Speaker 1: these things, but they also cannot prevent their own residents
Speaker 1: from traveling elsewhere in Canada. There's been an increase in
Speaker 1: important cases over the past few weeks and that really
Speaker 1: scared off some of the provinces. So what we saw recently,
Speaker 1: um we saw Newfoundland and p I withdraw from the
Speaker 1: bubble for at least two weeks and and see what
Speaker 1: happens next. So you know, people have been talking about
Speaker 1: breaking the bubble falling apart. That really has nothing to
Speaker 1: look forward to in Canada at the moment. Uh, the
Speaker 1: numbers are still pretty good. What the characterized is this
Speaker 1: provinces is that they've had really low numbers. They've been
Speaker 1: very cautious and so that's what they're doing right now. Again.
Speaker 1: You know, by saying, okay, let's get out of the bubble.
Speaker 1: We might come back, but numbers in Nova Scotia and
Speaker 1: New bruns were called worrying us. So we were drawing
Speaker 1: for a bit and looking ahead. Obviously we have the
Speaker 1: holidays coming up um potentially a lot of interprovincial travel.
Speaker 1: Do you think that the bubble is likely to hold
Speaker 1: for say, December and into I think the bubble as
Speaker 1: as it is the internal travel perhaps. I think everyone's
Speaker 1: looking at this very closely. But but again, like for instance,
Speaker 1: I'll give you my own example and my my partners
Speaker 1: from New Brunswick and he hasn't seen his family for
Speaker 1: for more than a year, and there's no visiting for
Speaker 1: Christmas because even though technically it would be allowed in
Speaker 1: you would have to self isolate for two weeks on arrival,
Speaker 1: you know, and then what go back immediately to Montreal.
Speaker 1: I mean, these these rules, as long as they're here,
Speaker 1: are really going to deter travel from elsewhere in Canada.
Speaker 1: So I think they have this level of protection in
Speaker 1: place even for the holidays. That two weeks self isolation
Speaker 1: policy one that we see throughout Canada is obviously a
Speaker 1: major deterrent um. But it sounds like there are plans
Speaker 1: potentially that that that period could be shortened. Yeah, so
Speaker 1: what we're seeing right now in Alberta for the past
Speaker 1: almost five weeks I think, but five weeks now, there's
Speaker 1: been a pilot in place too to test people on
Speaker 1: arrival at the airport and also at a one land
Speaker 1: crossing and as soon as people get those tests while
Speaker 1: they self isolate because you know, when you get into
Speaker 1: Canada you have to self isolate for two weeks, and
Speaker 1: even if you're a resident, even if you come from
Speaker 1: a country with low risk and that has really hard
Speaker 1: international travel. So right now in Alberta, this pilot test
Speaker 1: people on arrival. Once they get their results usually after
Speaker 1: thirty one or thirty six hours, if it's negative, they
Speaker 1: can sort of go back to quasi normal life. They
Speaker 1: have to you know, test a second time. But that
Speaker 1: could be almost a game changer in the short term
Speaker 1: for the industry because if the quarantine could be short
Speaker 1: a lot more people presumably would travel. And that's something
Speaker 1: that Atlantic Provinces people in the tourism industry that depends
Speaker 1: so much on it are following closely because if their
Speaker 1: government were inspired to adopt something similar that would really
Speaker 1: help revive and salvage next summer. That was Sandre and Rostello,
Speaker 1: and that's it for our show today. For coverage of
Speaker 1: the outbreak from one twenty bureaus around the world, visit
Speaker 1: bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus and if you like the show,
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Speaker 1: listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is
Speaker 1: produced by Top for Foreheads, Jordan's Gas Pure, Magnus Hendrickson,
Speaker 1: and Nick Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by
Speaker 1: Sandrin Rostello. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are
Speaker 1: Rick Shine and friend Cessca Levie. Francesca Levi is Bloomberg's
Speaker 1: out of podcasts. Thanks for listening.