1 00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:07,640 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day two hundred 2 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:11,800 Speaker 1: and sixty one since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. 3 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: Today's main story A cluster of provinces in Canada banded 4 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:21,599 Speaker 1: together to form a rule following COVID bubble. They ended 5 00:00:21,680 --> 00:00:25,400 Speaker 1: up with outcomes far better than the rest of the country. 6 00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:30,040 Speaker 1: But what lengths will these provinces go to to keep 7 00:00:30,040 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 1: the bubble from bursting? But first, here's what happened in 8 00:00:35,520 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 1: virus news today. But Derrena made more progress on its 9 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:52,800 Speaker 1: promising coronavirus vaccine. The company is requesting emergency clearance for 10 00:00:52,840 --> 00:00:57,120 Speaker 1: the drug today. That's after a new analysis showed that 11 00:00:57,160 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 1: it's highly effective. The price Mary analysis found the vaccine 12 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:05,400 Speaker 1: was over nine percent effective, The results f lining up 13 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:10,200 Speaker 1: with preliminary findings released earlier this month. Another plus, the 14 00:01:10,280 --> 00:01:14,800 Speaker 1: drug could be especially effective at preventing severe cases of 15 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:18,000 Speaker 1: the disease. None of the participants in the trial who 16 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 1: would receive the vaccine developed severe COVID nineteen. New York 17 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:28,400 Speaker 1: City's positive COVID nineteen test rate jumped above four percent 18 00:01:28,800 --> 00:01:31,560 Speaker 1: based on a seven day average. According to Mayor Bill 19 00:01:31,600 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 1: de Blasio. De Blasio also announced that in person viewing 20 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 1: of the Rockefeller Center Christmas Tree, a huge tourist draw 21 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:44,600 Speaker 1: would be controlled to allow for social distancing. The mayor 22 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:48,600 Speaker 1: closed public schools earlier in November when the average positive 23 00:01:48,640 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 1: test rate hit three percent, but will reopen schools next 24 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 1: week for younger students. Finally, cases of coronavirus in England 25 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: fell ear percent after lockdown measures were rolled out in November. 26 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:08,440 Speaker 1: According to a new study. The finding show cases were 27 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:11,440 Speaker 1: rising as the country entered a four week lockdown on 28 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 1: November five. As national restrictions were rolled out, cases declined sharply. 29 00:02:18,000 --> 00:02:21,799 Speaker 1: The report by Imperial College London and IPSOS Mori UK 30 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 1: was published today and now for today's main story. In Canada, 31 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:37,400 Speaker 1: the COVID nineteen outbreak has affected much of the country. 32 00:02:37,840 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 1: In Quebec, where three in five of Canada's virus deaths 33 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:46,840 Speaker 1: have hit Rage over new lockdowns is palpable in Ontario. Meanwhile, 34 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:51,520 Speaker 1: I see us are filling up out West caseloads are 35 00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 1: hitting records, but four eastern Canadian provinces comprising two point 36 00:02:57,120 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 1: four million people have banded together, barred outsiders and huge 37 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:06,160 Speaker 1: tightly to health guidelines. As a result, the region has 38 00:03:06,160 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 1: a COVID nineteen death rate that's one tenth the rest 39 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 1: of the countries, with almost no one noticing Atlantic Canada 40 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:19,120 Speaker 1: has become a pandemic. Shangri law I spoke to Montreal 41 00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:24,040 Speaker 1: Bureau chief Sandrine Rostello about the outpost of quiet obedience 42 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 1: that calls itself the Atlantic Bubble. What exactly is Canada's 43 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:42,880 Speaker 1: Atlantic Bubble, how does it work exactly and when did 44 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 1: it come into effect? So the bubble is something that 45 00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:51,400 Speaker 1: four provinces in Eastern Canada created to sort of salvage 46 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 1: their their summer season. You had four provinces, so there 47 00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:59,680 Speaker 1: are New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, then Newfoundland 48 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 1: and Leaped a door, which each had pretty good results 49 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 1: at the end of the first lockdown. They they were 50 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 1: cautious in reopening, their cases were really low, and they 51 00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 1: each had basically very stringent rules about entering the province. Actually, 52 00:04:15,880 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 1: if you are just a Canadian who wanted to go 53 00:04:19,400 --> 00:04:22,480 Speaker 1: visit Nova Scotia during the summer, it was just not 54 00:04:22,600 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 1: possible if you didn't have a really good reason, and 55 00:04:25,120 --> 00:04:28,280 Speaker 1: even then you had to self quarantine for two weeks. 56 00:04:29,000 --> 00:04:33,680 Speaker 1: So these provinces basically said, um, you know what, we're 57 00:04:33,680 --> 00:04:36,360 Speaker 1: going to open to one another so our residents can 58 00:04:36,520 --> 00:04:40,480 Speaker 1: visit the other three provinces and we can have some tourism, 59 00:04:40,560 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 1: because otherwise it was going to be a complete catastrophe 60 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:49,039 Speaker 1: for the economy. And and overall, how has the bubble done? 61 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:52,279 Speaker 1: I mean, how have those four provinces performed in comparison 62 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:55,080 Speaker 1: to the rest of Canada in terms of say, case 63 00:04:55,200 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: rates or mortality. So they've had incredibly low numbers, and 64 00:04:59,240 --> 00:05:00,839 Speaker 1: I think it was a big it under the radar 65 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:04,600 Speaker 1: for the longest time because these provinces, you know, altogether 66 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:07,920 Speaker 1: they have about two point four million people, so it's 67 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: not a lot. They are their populations are aging, you know, 68 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 1: especially in Newfoundland for instance, if you look at it, 69 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:19,839 Speaker 1: the the medium age is actually seven years higher than 70 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: than Ontario. So they were very careful in the way 71 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 1: they handle this. And they have a population that was 72 00:05:27,520 --> 00:05:30,760 Speaker 1: quite compliant too, So they did really well. I mean, 73 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 1: think of that p I. Of course, it's an island, 74 00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:38,040 Speaker 1: but it has has had no depth at all. And 75 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,200 Speaker 1: if you look if you take the four provinces together 76 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 1: and you bring back you bring that back to a 77 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:48,679 Speaker 1: rate per hundred thousand people. They've had about three deaths 78 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:52,159 Speaker 1: per hundred thousand people. If you compare that with Canada 79 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:55,359 Speaker 1: as a whole, that's one tenth. That gives you an 80 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 1: idea they I think last night checked they had no 81 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:01,960 Speaker 1: COVID case in the hospital. These are things you you 82 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 1: haven't heard of anywhere really. So they've they've done extremely well. 83 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 1: They've been extremely cautious, and they've they've had um measures, 84 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 1: you know, like safety measures that are respected. Even though 85 00:06:16,440 --> 00:06:19,960 Speaker 1: this this bubble has been remarkably successful, we should say 86 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 1: in terms of COVID nineteen, have there been any negative effects, um, 87 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:29,680 Speaker 1: let's say economically speaking, in terms of tourism or the 88 00:06:29,720 --> 00:06:34,120 Speaker 1: Atlantic economy generally. Yeah, absolutely so. So first of all, 89 00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 1: you know, all economies are connected today, so you know 90 00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:41,320 Speaker 1: the fact that uh, there's less demand from restaurants in 91 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:45,520 Speaker 1: New York for say, uh you know, lobster from Nova Scotia, 92 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:49,200 Speaker 1: or you know, all sorts the way exports in general 93 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 1: have been affected. They've been hit for sure, but on 94 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:57,359 Speaker 1: top of that, you know the specially high um level 95 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 1: of cautiousness costing them greatly on the tourism front. You 96 00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:04,160 Speaker 1: know a lot of these places come to life during 97 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 1: the summer. That the summer season is not very long. 98 00:07:07,120 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 1: It can get pretty cold in Canada, and tourists just 99 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:13,800 Speaker 1: didn't come this year. For instance, in Nova Scotia in August, 100 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 1: tourism was down sevent So. Yes, the Atlantic bubble enable 101 00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:23,080 Speaker 1: people to travel and you know, visit within the bubble, 102 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:27,000 Speaker 1: but that can't replace you know, like people from Alberta 103 00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 1: and Ontario who also have the budget to spend. It 104 00:07:30,760 --> 00:07:34,520 Speaker 1: has taken a big toll. I think people who are 105 00:07:34,600 --> 00:07:38,680 Speaker 1: talked to in tourism have been patients, you know, but 106 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:41,400 Speaker 1: they're also looking at what can be done to open 107 00:07:41,480 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 1: up the bubble, perhaps not just now because you know, 108 00:07:44,920 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 1: the second wave is also affecting them somewhat, but down 109 00:07:48,680 --> 00:07:52,600 Speaker 1: the road they hope to find a solution. Have there 110 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 1: been any I mean, we've seen this across the board 111 00:07:55,800 --> 00:08:00,840 Speaker 1: with COVID nineteen some unexpected economic developments. Have there been 112 00:08:00,960 --> 00:08:05,800 Speaker 1: any bright spots economically speaking for the bubble real estate 113 00:08:06,680 --> 00:08:11,280 Speaker 1: story of Canada? Yes, So what's been interesting is that 114 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 1: the real estate market has been really dynamic. You know, 115 00:08:15,480 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 1: the sort of things that people is routine in Ontario 116 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 1: or in places like Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, people overbidding, bidding wars, 117 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:28,000 Speaker 1: that kind of thing is new to those business were 118 00:08:28,080 --> 00:08:31,320 Speaker 1: not much has happened in recent years that the market, 119 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:33,640 Speaker 1: the real estate market was already starting to pick up, 120 00:08:33,679 --> 00:08:37,480 Speaker 1: and that's been confirmed. You know, that's the the effect 121 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:40,600 Speaker 1: of people haven't spent much during the pandemic. They and 122 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 1: they want more space. We've seen that, you know, across 123 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:47,000 Speaker 1: the board, but also real estate brokers I talked to 124 00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 1: said they've heard from locals that Marytimers as we call them, 125 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: that made a move to Ontario movie els where in 126 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 1: Canada for their career and now that they can work 127 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 1: from home, that there looking into baying back home, or 128 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:05,200 Speaker 1: baby boomers looking to to come back and you know, 129 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: cash out on that big mention they bought in Toronto 130 00:09:09,600 --> 00:09:13,680 Speaker 1: and and come for much cheaper in their their home province. 131 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 1: Despite this let's let's just say success of the Atlantic 132 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 1: travel bubble, it does seem like recently it has been 133 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 1: in danger of popping. Right, so you know, these places 134 00:09:28,440 --> 00:09:32,000 Speaker 1: are not immune from what's happening elsewhere. Just as a reminder, 135 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 1: New Brunswick sits next to Quebec. Quebec you know, as 136 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:39,880 Speaker 1: had the most most death uh the whole of Canada. 137 00:09:39,920 --> 00:09:41,960 Speaker 1: At some point, I think it was about sixty percent 138 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:45,559 Speaker 1: of old Canadian COVID death happened in Quebec. So that 139 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:49,559 Speaker 1: was the main reason why New Brunswick really like made 140 00:09:49,600 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: getting in much harder. That said, you know, uh, these 141 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 1: provinces have a lot of workers who are so called 142 00:09:56,840 --> 00:10:00,120 Speaker 1: rotational workers who who come in. There's a pro took 143 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 1: called for them to sell fivesolate and tests and all 144 00:10:02,640 --> 00:10:06,720 Speaker 1: these things, but they also cannot prevent their own residents 145 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 1: from traveling elsewhere in Canada. There's been an increase in 146 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:15,319 Speaker 1: important cases over the past few weeks and that really 147 00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:18,520 Speaker 1: scared off some of the provinces. So what we saw recently, 148 00:10:18,880 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 1: um we saw Newfoundland and p I withdraw from the 149 00:10:23,320 --> 00:10:26,480 Speaker 1: bubble for at least two weeks and and see what 150 00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 1: happens next. So you know, people have been talking about 151 00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:32,600 Speaker 1: breaking the bubble falling apart. That really has nothing to 152 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:35,960 Speaker 1: look forward to in Canada at the moment. Uh, the 153 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:39,200 Speaker 1: numbers are still pretty good. What the characterized is this 154 00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 1: provinces is that they've had really low numbers. They've been 155 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 1: very cautious and so that's what they're doing right now. Again. 156 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:49,720 Speaker 1: You know, by saying, okay, let's get out of the bubble. 157 00:10:49,760 --> 00:10:53,240 Speaker 1: We might come back, but numbers in Nova Scotia and 158 00:10:53,280 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 1: New bruns were called worrying us. So we were drawing 159 00:10:56,400 --> 00:11:00,440 Speaker 1: for a bit and looking ahead. Obviously we have the 160 00:11:00,520 --> 00:11:05,160 Speaker 1: holidays coming up um potentially a lot of interprovincial travel. 161 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 1: Do you think that the bubble is likely to hold 162 00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:13,880 Speaker 1: for say, December and into I think the bubble as 163 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:17,960 Speaker 1: as it is the internal travel perhaps. I think everyone's 164 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:22,080 Speaker 1: looking at this very closely. But but again, like for instance, 165 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:24,400 Speaker 1: I'll give you my own example and my my partners 166 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:28,640 Speaker 1: from New Brunswick and he hasn't seen his family for 167 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:31,640 Speaker 1: for more than a year, and there's no visiting for 168 00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 1: Christmas because even though technically it would be allowed in 169 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:38,840 Speaker 1: you would have to self isolate for two weeks on arrival, 170 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:42,360 Speaker 1: you know, and then what go back immediately to Montreal. 171 00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:45,880 Speaker 1: I mean, these these rules, as long as they're here, 172 00:11:45,880 --> 00:11:49,199 Speaker 1: are really going to deter travel from elsewhere in Canada. 173 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:51,320 Speaker 1: So I think they have this level of protection in 174 00:11:51,360 --> 00:11:56,280 Speaker 1: place even for the holidays. That two weeks self isolation 175 00:11:56,280 --> 00:11:59,679 Speaker 1: policy one that we see throughout Canada is obviously a 176 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:03,280 Speaker 1: major deterrent um. But it sounds like there are plans 177 00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:07,480 Speaker 1: potentially that that that period could be shortened. Yeah, so 178 00:12:07,520 --> 00:12:10,520 Speaker 1: what we're seeing right now in Alberta for the past 179 00:12:10,880 --> 00:12:13,360 Speaker 1: almost five weeks I think, but five weeks now, there's 180 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:16,680 Speaker 1: been a pilot in place too to test people on 181 00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:20,080 Speaker 1: arrival at the airport and also at a one land 182 00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:24,280 Speaker 1: crossing and as soon as people get those tests while 183 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:26,560 Speaker 1: they self isolate because you know, when you get into 184 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:29,360 Speaker 1: Canada you have to self isolate for two weeks, and 185 00:12:29,920 --> 00:12:32,000 Speaker 1: even if you're a resident, even if you come from 186 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 1: a country with low risk and that has really hard 187 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:38,840 Speaker 1: international travel. So right now in Alberta, this pilot test 188 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: people on arrival. Once they get their results usually after 189 00:12:42,920 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 1: thirty one or thirty six hours, if it's negative, they 190 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 1: can sort of go back to quasi normal life. They 191 00:12:50,200 --> 00:12:53,280 Speaker 1: have to you know, test a second time. But that 192 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:56,079 Speaker 1: could be almost a game changer in the short term 193 00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:59,840 Speaker 1: for the industry because if the quarantine could be short 194 00:13:00,200 --> 00:13:03,840 Speaker 1: a lot more people presumably would travel. And that's something 195 00:13:03,960 --> 00:13:08,079 Speaker 1: that Atlantic Provinces people in the tourism industry that depends 196 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:11,360 Speaker 1: so much on it are following closely because if their 197 00:13:11,440 --> 00:13:16,120 Speaker 1: government were inspired to adopt something similar that would really 198 00:13:16,160 --> 00:13:25,200 Speaker 1: help revive and salvage next summer. That was Sandre and Rostello, 199 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:27,800 Speaker 1: and that's it for our show today. For coverage of 200 00:13:27,800 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 1: the outbreak from one twenty bureaus around the world, visit 201 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:35,520 Speaker 1: bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus and if you like the show, 202 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,160 Speaker 1: please leave us a review and a rating on Apple 203 00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:41,440 Speaker 1: Podcasts or Spotify. It's the best way to help more 204 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:45,840 Speaker 1: listeners find our global reporting. The Prognosis Daily edition is 205 00:13:45,840 --> 00:13:50,120 Speaker 1: produced by Top for Foreheads, Jordan's Gas Pure, Magnus Hendrickson, 206 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:54,199 Speaker 1: and Nick Laura Carlson. Today's main story was reported by 207 00:13:54,200 --> 00:13:58,840 Speaker 1: Sandrin Rostello. Original music by Leo Sidrin. Our editors are 208 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 1: Rick Shine and friend Cessca Levie. Francesca Levi is Bloomberg's 209 00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:05,680 Speaker 1: out of podcasts. Thanks for listening.