Speaker 1: Joining US on the program now is retired Navy Admiral
Speaker 1: James Stavrida's former military commander of NATO and Bloomberg opinion columnist.
Speaker 1: Admiral thanks very much for joining us. Uh, and it's nice.
Speaker 1: I think we can start on an optimistic note here.
Speaker 1: Um this piece that that you've written for Bloomberg, China
Speaker 1: thinks fifty years ahead? Can the US. It seems like
Speaker 1: you have an idea that things are about to change,
Speaker 1: and they're optimistic, particularly because of the creation of this
Speaker 1: new House Select Committee on China, headed by Mike Gallagher
Speaker 1: of Wisconsin. Explain why you think this could market change
Speaker 1: in long term thinking, Well, China is one of the
Speaker 1: very few issues upon which there's real bipartisan agreement. I
Speaker 1: think the other one, by the way, is Ukraine, and
Speaker 1: perhaps we can talk about that in a moment. But Uh,
Speaker 1: this idea that I think both sides want to put
Speaker 1: a serious effort into creating a long term US strategy
Speaker 1: for dealing with China is quite signal, and in particular
Speaker 1: it's led by a very impressive, relatively young, thirty eight
Speaker 1: year old Congressman Mike Gallagher, who is a Princeton undergraduate
Speaker 1: a PhD from Georgetown, a combat veteran, a US marine
Speaker 1: in the Forever Wars in Iraq. Really an impressive individual.
Speaker 1: The key is going to be whether that committee can
Speaker 1: be sufficiently bipartisan. I think it can be to really
Speaker 1: create a long term look at how we are approached China.
Speaker 1: What are the elements of an effective long term strategy
Speaker 1: towards China? That's the key question, and I'll give you five.
Speaker 1: One is military. What are the military systems from unmanned
Speaker 1: to space, to special forces to artificial intelligence? Another one
Speaker 1: is diplomatic. How do we construct the best diplomatic approach
Speaker 1: combined allies, partners and friends from Japan to India to
Speaker 1: Singapore in the region. I'd say number three has got
Speaker 1: to be economic. How do we balance the trade and
Speaker 1: tariffs in a way that creates a level playing field
Speaker 1: between these two countries. I'd say number four is cultural informational.
Speaker 1: How do we talk about ourselves our diplomacy, How do
Speaker 1: we counter the authoritarian moves out of China? And then fifth,
Speaker 1: and finally, maybe most important is tech technology. How do
Speaker 1: we construct how we deal with chips, how we ensure
Speaker 1: that we win the race toward artificial intelligence. I think
Speaker 1: all of those need to be blended together in this strategy, Admiral,
Speaker 1: is it inherently more difficult for democracies to to plan
Speaker 1: out over say, fifty years, in that leadership changes sometimes
Speaker 1: every four years. It does, and you put your finger
Speaker 1: on a significant challenge for the United States and for
Speaker 1: other democracies. Exactly as you say, democracy changes in the
Speaker 1: direction can shift pretty dramatically. Um. Whereas in an authoritarian country,
Speaker 1: someone like President she he's seventy, he'll probably be around
Speaker 1: at least another ten, fifteen, maybe twenty years. He can
Speaker 1: keep his hand on the tiller. On the other hand,
Speaker 1: the vibrancy of a democracy that brings new ideas for
Speaker 1: that allows us to reinvent ourselves is also an advantage.
Speaker 1: Bottom line, I'd rather have the hand of cards as
Speaker 1: a democracy. Winston Churchill said democracy it's the worst form
Speaker 1: of government except for all the others. I'll go with that. Yeah. Indeed, Um,
Speaker 1: if we want to unpack some of those five pillars individually, UM,
Speaker 1: let's take militarily, for example, what will be needed as
Speaker 1: part of a long term plan, but as risks attached
Speaker 1: as well in terms of potentially stunning an arms race
Speaker 1: there is, but let me let me tell you, China
Speaker 1: is already embarked on that. They're building ships warships much
Speaker 1: faster than we are. The Chinese navy is three fifty
Speaker 1: significant warships. We have three hundred. China is expanding its
Speaker 1: nuclear strategic forces um, China is expanding into space. We
Speaker 1: still have a lead by the way in many of
Speaker 1: these areas, but that race is already in progress. The
Speaker 1: reality is we've got to move forward. And I would
Speaker 1: put three things at the top of my list. Unmanned
Speaker 1: vehicles to include space, by the way, but also drones
Speaker 1: as we see in Ukraine. Number two, I think artificial intelligence,
Speaker 1: cyber security. And number three, this one may surprise you.
Speaker 1: Special Forces, elite teams, Seals, Green Beret, but also elite
Speaker 1: cyber warriors are going to be part of this. We
Speaker 1: need to keep moving forward on that military pillar. And well,
Speaker 1: just today Bloomberg reports an extensive outline of of China
Speaker 1: building up several unoccupied land features in the South China
Speaker 1: Sea near the Sproutley Islands. And in our story we
Speaker 1: cite Western officials and and have satellite photos that show
Speaker 1: that fishing fleets operating as Chinese maritime militious have been
Speaker 1: carrying out construction activities. Uh in four features of the
Speaker 1: Sproutley is not. A listener who knew you were coming
Speaker 1: on the program texted me hoping that I could ask
Speaker 1: you if the world has decided that the occupation of
Speaker 1: the Sproutleys is okay. No, we have not, and you're
Speaker 1: going to continue to see Western maritime powers to include
Speaker 1: the United States, are allies like the British, the French
Speaker 1: have signed up to this, the Australians, the Japanese. We're
Speaker 1: going to drive our destroyer right through those contested waters
Speaker 1: in the Spratley's. And by the way, it's not justice
Speaker 1: small group of islands. China claims the entire South China
Speaker 1: Sea as territorial waters. This is a land area, Brian
Speaker 1: and Paul, that is half the size of the continental
Speaker 1: United States. We're never going to let China simply claim
Speaker 1: that huge land area, and we're going to continue to
Speaker 1: contest these waters. Um, this is not okay, and you
Speaker 1: will see the West push China very hard on the
Speaker 1: South China Sea. Yeah, it's not just the South China
Speaker 1: See that's disputed as well. I mean, just today there's
Speaker 1: a report in the Times about India moving an unprecedented
Speaker 1: number of troops to the border with China and our
Speaker 1: natural bra dish. What can the Quad do in situations
Speaker 1: like this? Yeah, the Quad, for those who aren't in
Speaker 1: this on a minute to minute basis, is Japan, United States, Australia,
Speaker 1: in India, and those four nations the Quad are collectively
Speaker 1: combining their security, their diplomacy. Not a formal alliance, but
Speaker 1: working together to create a counterweight to China. Is very
Speaker 1: important that the United States, Japan, in Australia, the other
Speaker 1: members of the Quad provide support to India in this
Speaker 1: dispute which is getting pretty serious in the Himalayas at
Speaker 1: the very top of the world. Yeah. In your piece
Speaker 1: that we've been referring to in this chat, you gave
Speaker 1: a list of books that people should should read to
Speaker 1: learn more about this. Maybe I would add one. It's
Speaker 1: called Four, a novel of the Next World War written
Speaker 1: by you along with Elliott Ackerman. And the reason I
Speaker 1: started off the interview by saying, you know, making a
Speaker 1: big deal of let's start off on an optimistic note,
Speaker 1: is that it's a pretty dark theme that you have
Speaker 1: in that book. It is it's a novel set in
Speaker 1: the year hence the title a novel of the next
Speaker 1: World War, and of course it's about a war with China.
Speaker 1: But here's the optimistic note um. The book is intended
Speaker 1: not as predictive fiction, but rather as cautionary fiction. The
Speaker 1: idea of the book is to outline how a war
Speaker 1: could start, how the US and China could stumble into
Speaker 1: a war. And by the way, it begins in the
Speaker 1: South China Sea with a scenario set in a freedom
Speaker 1: of navigation patrol very near the contested island features we
Speaker 1: talked about. But here's the point. If we construct a plan,
Speaker 1: if we deter China, if we work with allies, partners
Speaker 1: and friends, we can in fact avoid stumbling into a war.
Speaker 1: That's why it's so important that we create a coherent
Speaker 1: plan ultimately to deter China. Bottom line, Look, the relationship
Speaker 1: with China is difficult. We're going to have to bend it.
Speaker 1: We want to be careful we don't end up breaking
Speaker 1: it and ending up in a war with China. I'm
Speaker 1: told by our bureau chief in Taipei that people aren't
Speaker 1: that worried about China invading Taiwan. And twenty second, should
Speaker 1: they be um. I have one word for you. Ukraine
Speaker 1: people in Kiev ten months ago often said, we know
Speaker 1: the Russians really well, they're not actually gonna invade. How
Speaker 1: did that turn out? Yeah, it's a cautionary tale. Admiral,
Speaker 1: thank you for joining us. A good shout retired Navy
Speaker 1: Admiral James Stafrida's former military commander of NATO and a
Speaker 1: Bloomberg opinion columnist