WEBVTT - James Stavridis on China-US (Radio)

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<v Speaker 1>Joining US on the program now is retired Navy Admiral

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<v Speaker 1>James Stavrida's former military commander of NATO and Bloomberg opinion columnist.

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<v Speaker 1>Admiral thanks very much for joining us. Uh, and it's nice.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we can start on an optimistic note here.

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<v Speaker 1>Um this piece that that you've written for Bloomberg, China

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<v Speaker 1>thinks fifty years ahead? Can the US. It seems like

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<v Speaker 1>you have an idea that things are about to change,

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<v Speaker 1>and they're optimistic, particularly because of the creation of this

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<v Speaker 1>new House Select Committee on China, headed by Mike Gallagher

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<v Speaker 1>of Wisconsin. Explain why you think this could market change

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<v Speaker 1>in long term thinking, Well, China is one of the

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<v Speaker 1>very few issues upon which there's real bipartisan agreement. I

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<v Speaker 1>think the other one, by the way, is Ukraine, and

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<v Speaker 1>perhaps we can talk about that in a moment. But Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>this idea that I think both sides want to put

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<v Speaker 1>a serious effort into creating a long term US strategy

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<v Speaker 1>for dealing with China is quite signal, and in particular

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<v Speaker 1>it's led by a very impressive, relatively young, thirty eight

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<v Speaker 1>year old Congressman Mike Gallagher, who is a Princeton undergraduate

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<v Speaker 1>a PhD from Georgetown, a combat veteran, a US marine

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<v Speaker 1>in the Forever Wars in Iraq. Really an impressive individual.

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<v Speaker 1>The key is going to be whether that committee can

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<v Speaker 1>be sufficiently bipartisan. I think it can be to really

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<v Speaker 1>create a long term look at how we are approached China.

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<v Speaker 1>What are the elements of an effective long term strategy

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<v Speaker 1>towards China? That's the key question, and I'll give you five.

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<v Speaker 1>One is military. What are the military systems from unmanned

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<v Speaker 1>to space, to special forces to artificial intelligence? Another one

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<v Speaker 1>is diplomatic. How do we construct the best diplomatic approach

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<v Speaker 1>combined allies, partners and friends from Japan to India to

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<v Speaker 1>Singapore in the region. I'd say number three has got

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<v Speaker 1>to be economic. How do we balance the trade and

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<v Speaker 1>tariffs in a way that creates a level playing field

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<v Speaker 1>between these two countries. I'd say number four is cultural informational.

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<v Speaker 1>How do we talk about ourselves our diplomacy, How do

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<v Speaker 1>we counter the authoritarian moves out of China? And then fifth,

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<v Speaker 1>and finally, maybe most important is tech technology. How do

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<v Speaker 1>we construct how we deal with chips, how we ensure

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<v Speaker 1>that we win the race toward artificial intelligence. I think

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<v Speaker 1>all of those need to be blended together in this strategy, Admiral,

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<v Speaker 1>is it inherently more difficult for democracies to to plan

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<v Speaker 1>out over say, fifty years, in that leadership changes sometimes

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<v Speaker 1>every four years. It does, and you put your finger

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<v Speaker 1>on a significant challenge for the United States and for

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<v Speaker 1>other democracies. Exactly as you say, democracy changes in the

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<v Speaker 1>direction can shift pretty dramatically. Um. Whereas in an authoritarian country,

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<v Speaker 1>someone like President she he's seventy, he'll probably be around

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<v Speaker 1>at least another ten, fifteen, maybe twenty years. He can

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<v Speaker 1>keep his hand on the tiller. On the other hand,

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<v Speaker 1>the vibrancy of a democracy that brings new ideas for

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<v Speaker 1>that allows us to reinvent ourselves is also an advantage.

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<v Speaker 1>Bottom line, I'd rather have the hand of cards as

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<v Speaker 1>a democracy. Winston Churchill said democracy it's the worst form

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<v Speaker 1>of government except for all the others. I'll go with that. Yeah. Indeed, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>if we want to unpack some of those five pillars individually, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>let's take militarily, for example, what will be needed as

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<v Speaker 1>part of a long term plan, but as risks attached

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<v Speaker 1>as well in terms of potentially stunning an arms race

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<v Speaker 1>there is, but let me let me tell you, China

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<v Speaker 1>is already embarked on that. They're building ships warships much

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<v Speaker 1>faster than we are. The Chinese navy is three fifty

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<v Speaker 1>significant warships. We have three hundred. China is expanding its

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear strategic forces um, China is expanding into space. We

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<v Speaker 1>still have a lead by the way in many of

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<v Speaker 1>these areas, but that race is already in progress. The

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<v Speaker 1>reality is we've got to move forward. And I would

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<v Speaker 1>put three things at the top of my list. Unmanned

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<v Speaker 1>vehicles to include space, by the way, but also drones

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<v Speaker 1>as we see in Ukraine. Number two, I think artificial intelligence,

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<v Speaker 1>cyber security. And number three, this one may surprise you.

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<v Speaker 1>Special Forces, elite teams, Seals, Green Beret, but also elite

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<v Speaker 1>cyber warriors are going to be part of this. We

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<v Speaker 1>need to keep moving forward on that military pillar. And well,

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<v Speaker 1>just today Bloomberg reports an extensive outline of of China

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<v Speaker 1>building up several unoccupied land features in the South China

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<v Speaker 1>Sea near the Sproutley Islands. And in our story we

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<v Speaker 1>cite Western officials and and have satellite photos that show

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<v Speaker 1>that fishing fleets operating as Chinese maritime militious have been

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<v Speaker 1>carrying out construction activities. Uh in four features of the

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<v Speaker 1>Sproutley is not. A listener who knew you were coming

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<v Speaker 1>on the program texted me hoping that I could ask

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<v Speaker 1>you if the world has decided that the occupation of

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<v Speaker 1>the Sproutleys is okay. No, we have not, and you're

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<v Speaker 1>going to continue to see Western maritime powers to include

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<v Speaker 1>the United States, are allies like the British, the French

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<v Speaker 1>have signed up to this, the Australians, the Japanese. We're

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<v Speaker 1>going to drive our destroyer right through those contested waters

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<v Speaker 1>in the Spratley's. And by the way, it's not justice

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<v Speaker 1>small group of islands. China claims the entire South China

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<v Speaker 1>Sea as territorial waters. This is a land area, Brian

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<v Speaker 1>and Paul, that is half the size of the continental

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<v Speaker 1>United States. We're never going to let China simply claim

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<v Speaker 1>that huge land area, and we're going to continue to

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<v Speaker 1>contest these waters. Um, this is not okay, and you

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<v Speaker 1>will see the West push China very hard on the

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<v Speaker 1>South China Sea. Yeah, it's not just the South China

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<v Speaker 1>See that's disputed as well. I mean, just today there's

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<v Speaker 1>a report in the Times about India moving an unprecedented

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<v Speaker 1>number of troops to the border with China and our

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<v Speaker 1>natural bra dish. What can the Quad do in situations

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<v Speaker 1>like this? Yeah, the Quad, for those who aren't in

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<v Speaker 1>this on a minute to minute basis, is Japan, United States, Australia,

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<v Speaker 1>in India, and those four nations the Quad are collectively

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<v Speaker 1>combining their security, their diplomacy. Not a formal alliance, but

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<v Speaker 1>working together to create a counterweight to China. Is very

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<v Speaker 1>important that the United States, Japan, in Australia, the other

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<v Speaker 1>members of the Quad provide support to India in this

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<v Speaker 1>dispute which is getting pretty serious in the Himalayas at

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<v Speaker 1>the very top of the world. Yeah. In your piece

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<v Speaker 1>that we've been referring to in this chat, you gave

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<v Speaker 1>a list of books that people should should read to

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<v Speaker 1>learn more about this. Maybe I would add one. It's

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<v Speaker 1>called Four, a novel of the Next World War written

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<v Speaker 1>by you along with Elliott Ackerman. And the reason I

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<v Speaker 1>started off the interview by saying, you know, making a

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<v Speaker 1>big deal of let's start off on an optimistic note,

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<v Speaker 1>is that it's a pretty dark theme that you have

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<v Speaker 1>in that book. It is it's a novel set in

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<v Speaker 1>the year hence the title a novel of the next

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<v Speaker 1>World War, and of course it's about a war with China.

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<v Speaker 1>But here's the optimistic note um. The book is intended

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<v Speaker 1>not as predictive fiction, but rather as cautionary fiction. The

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<v Speaker 1>idea of the book is to outline how a war

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<v Speaker 1>could start, how the US and China could stumble into

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<v Speaker 1>a war. And by the way, it begins in the

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<v Speaker 1>South China Sea with a scenario set in a freedom

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<v Speaker 1>of navigation patrol very near the contested island features we

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<v Speaker 1>talked about. But here's the point. If we construct a plan,

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<v Speaker 1>if we deter China, if we work with allies, partners

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<v Speaker 1>and friends, we can in fact avoid stumbling into a war.

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<v Speaker 1>That's why it's so important that we create a coherent

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<v Speaker 1>plan ultimately to deter China. Bottom line, Look, the relationship

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<v Speaker 1>with China is difficult. We're going to have to bend it.

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<v Speaker 1>We want to be careful we don't end up breaking

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<v Speaker 1>it and ending up in a war with China. I'm

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<v Speaker 1>told by our bureau chief in Taipei that people aren't

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<v Speaker 1>that worried about China invading Taiwan. And twenty second, should

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<v Speaker 1>they be um. I have one word for you. Ukraine

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<v Speaker 1>people in Kiev ten months ago often said, we know

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<v Speaker 1>the Russians really well, they're not actually gonna invade. How

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<v Speaker 1>did that turn out? Yeah, it's a cautionary tale. Admiral,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you for joining us. A good shout retired Navy

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<v Speaker 1>Admiral James Stafrida's former military commander of NATO and a

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg opinion columnist