1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:02,920 Speaker 1: Joining US on the program now is retired Navy Admiral 2 00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:08,440 Speaker 1: James Stavrida's former military commander of NATO and Bloomberg opinion columnist. 3 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:11,680 Speaker 1: Admiral thanks very much for joining us. Uh, and it's nice. 4 00:00:11,720 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 1: I think we can start on an optimistic note here. 5 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 1: Um this piece that that you've written for Bloomberg, China 6 00:00:19,040 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 1: thinks fifty years ahead? Can the US. It seems like 7 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:26,960 Speaker 1: you have an idea that things are about to change, 8 00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:30,160 Speaker 1: and they're optimistic, particularly because of the creation of this 9 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 1: new House Select Committee on China, headed by Mike Gallagher 10 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:36,560 Speaker 1: of Wisconsin. Explain why you think this could market change 11 00:00:36,640 --> 00:00:40,559 Speaker 1: in long term thinking, Well, China is one of the 12 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: very few issues upon which there's real bipartisan agreement. I 13 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:46,720 Speaker 1: think the other one, by the way, is Ukraine, and 14 00:00:47,120 --> 00:00:50,200 Speaker 1: perhaps we can talk about that in a moment. But Uh, 15 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 1: this idea that I think both sides want to put 16 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: a serious effort into creating a long term US strategy 17 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:04,680 Speaker 1: for dealing with China is quite signal, and in particular 18 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:09,240 Speaker 1: it's led by a very impressive, relatively young, thirty eight 19 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 1: year old Congressman Mike Gallagher, who is a Princeton undergraduate 20 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:19,200 Speaker 1: a PhD from Georgetown, a combat veteran, a US marine 21 00:01:19,520 --> 00:01:24,400 Speaker 1: in the Forever Wars in Iraq. Really an impressive individual. 22 00:01:24,880 --> 00:01:27,400 Speaker 1: The key is going to be whether that committee can 23 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:31,640 Speaker 1: be sufficiently bipartisan. I think it can be to really 24 00:01:31,680 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 1: create a long term look at how we are approached China. 25 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:38,960 Speaker 1: What are the elements of an effective long term strategy 26 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:44,280 Speaker 1: towards China? That's the key question, and I'll give you five. 27 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 1: One is military. What are the military systems from unmanned 28 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 1: to space, to special forces to artificial intelligence? Another one 29 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:59,320 Speaker 1: is diplomatic. How do we construct the best diplomatic approach 30 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:03,800 Speaker 1: combined allies, partners and friends from Japan to India to 31 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:07,920 Speaker 1: Singapore in the region. I'd say number three has got 32 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:11,800 Speaker 1: to be economic. How do we balance the trade and 33 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 1: tariffs in a way that creates a level playing field 34 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:22,520 Speaker 1: between these two countries. I'd say number four is cultural informational. 35 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 1: How do we talk about ourselves our diplomacy, How do 36 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 1: we counter the authoritarian moves out of China? And then fifth, 37 00:02:30,320 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 1: and finally, maybe most important is tech technology. How do 38 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:40,360 Speaker 1: we construct how we deal with chips, how we ensure 39 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:44,640 Speaker 1: that we win the race toward artificial intelligence. I think 40 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 1: all of those need to be blended together in this strategy, Admiral, 41 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 1: is it inherently more difficult for democracies to to plan 42 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:58,480 Speaker 1: out over say, fifty years, in that leadership changes sometimes 43 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:02,320 Speaker 1: every four years. It does, and you put your finger 44 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 1: on a significant challenge for the United States and for 45 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 1: other democracies. Exactly as you say, democracy changes in the 46 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 1: direction can shift pretty dramatically. Um. Whereas in an authoritarian country, 47 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:22,520 Speaker 1: someone like President she he's seventy, he'll probably be around 48 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 1: at least another ten, fifteen, maybe twenty years. He can 49 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:29,720 Speaker 1: keep his hand on the tiller. On the other hand, 50 00:03:30,280 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 1: the vibrancy of a democracy that brings new ideas for 51 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:37,880 Speaker 1: that allows us to reinvent ourselves is also an advantage. 52 00:03:37,880 --> 00:03:41,119 Speaker 1: Bottom line, I'd rather have the hand of cards as 53 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 1: a democracy. Winston Churchill said democracy it's the worst form 54 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:52,839 Speaker 1: of government except for all the others. I'll go with that. Yeah. Indeed, Um, 55 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:57,400 Speaker 1: if we want to unpack some of those five pillars individually, UM, 56 00:03:57,720 --> 00:04:01,480 Speaker 1: let's take militarily, for example, what will be needed as 57 00:04:01,520 --> 00:04:04,360 Speaker 1: part of a long term plan, but as risks attached 58 00:04:04,400 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 1: as well in terms of potentially stunning an arms race 59 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 1: there is, but let me let me tell you, China 60 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:16,240 Speaker 1: is already embarked on that. They're building ships warships much 61 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:19,320 Speaker 1: faster than we are. The Chinese navy is three fifty 62 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 1: significant warships. We have three hundred. China is expanding its 63 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 1: nuclear strategic forces um, China is expanding into space. We 64 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:31,839 Speaker 1: still have a lead by the way in many of 65 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 1: these areas, but that race is already in progress. The 66 00:04:36,480 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 1: reality is we've got to move forward. And I would 67 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:42,280 Speaker 1: put three things at the top of my list. Unmanned 68 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 1: vehicles to include space, by the way, but also drones 69 00:04:46,560 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 1: as we see in Ukraine. Number two, I think artificial intelligence, 70 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:54,880 Speaker 1: cyber security. And number three, this one may surprise you. 71 00:04:55,279 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 1: Special Forces, elite teams, Seals, Green Beret, but also elite 72 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:04,480 Speaker 1: cyber warriors are going to be part of this. We 73 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:07,960 Speaker 1: need to keep moving forward on that military pillar. And well, 74 00:05:08,000 --> 00:05:11,960 Speaker 1: just today Bloomberg reports an extensive outline of of China 75 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:15,600 Speaker 1: building up several unoccupied land features in the South China 76 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:19,359 Speaker 1: Sea near the Sproutley Islands. And in our story we 77 00:05:19,400 --> 00:05:22,599 Speaker 1: cite Western officials and and have satellite photos that show 78 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:27,680 Speaker 1: that fishing fleets operating as Chinese maritime militious have been 79 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:32,000 Speaker 1: carrying out construction activities. Uh in four features of the 80 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:34,720 Speaker 1: Sproutley is not. A listener who knew you were coming 81 00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:37,480 Speaker 1: on the program texted me hoping that I could ask 82 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 1: you if the world has decided that the occupation of 83 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:46,320 Speaker 1: the Sproutleys is okay. No, we have not, and you're 84 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:51,239 Speaker 1: going to continue to see Western maritime powers to include 85 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:54,919 Speaker 1: the United States, are allies like the British, the French 86 00:05:55,000 --> 00:05:58,160 Speaker 1: have signed up to this, the Australians, the Japanese. We're 87 00:05:58,200 --> 00:06:04,240 Speaker 1: going to drive our destroyer right through those contested waters 88 00:06:04,279 --> 00:06:07,000 Speaker 1: in the Spratley's. And by the way, it's not justice 89 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 1: small group of islands. China claims the entire South China 90 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 1: Sea as territorial waters. This is a land area, Brian 91 00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,400 Speaker 1: and Paul, that is half the size of the continental 92 00:06:19,520 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 1: United States. We're never going to let China simply claim 93 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:26,359 Speaker 1: that huge land area, and we're going to continue to 94 00:06:26,400 --> 00:06:31,400 Speaker 1: contest these waters. Um, this is not okay, and you 95 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:35,360 Speaker 1: will see the West push China very hard on the 96 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:39,039 Speaker 1: South China Sea. Yeah, it's not just the South China 97 00:06:39,080 --> 00:06:41,360 Speaker 1: See that's disputed as well. I mean, just today there's 98 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 1: a report in the Times about India moving an unprecedented 99 00:06:44,520 --> 00:06:47,720 Speaker 1: number of troops to the border with China and our 100 00:06:47,800 --> 00:06:51,840 Speaker 1: natural bra dish. What can the Quad do in situations 101 00:06:51,920 --> 00:06:55,840 Speaker 1: like this? Yeah, the Quad, for those who aren't in 102 00:06:55,880 --> 00:07:01,520 Speaker 1: this on a minute to minute basis, is Japan, United States, Australia, 103 00:07:01,839 --> 00:07:07,680 Speaker 1: in India, and those four nations the Quad are collectively 104 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:12,600 Speaker 1: combining their security, their diplomacy. Not a formal alliance, but 105 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 1: working together to create a counterweight to China. Is very 106 00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 1: important that the United States, Japan, in Australia, the other 107 00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:26,560 Speaker 1: members of the Quad provide support to India in this 108 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 1: dispute which is getting pretty serious in the Himalayas at 109 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:34,960 Speaker 1: the very top of the world. Yeah. In your piece 110 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 1: that we've been referring to in this chat, you gave 111 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 1: a list of books that people should should read to 112 00:07:42,960 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 1: learn more about this. Maybe I would add one. It's 113 00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 1: called Four, a novel of the Next World War written 114 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 1: by you along with Elliott Ackerman. And the reason I 115 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 1: started off the interview by saying, you know, making a 116 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 1: big deal of let's start off on an optimistic note, 117 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:01,880 Speaker 1: is that it's a pretty dark theme that you have 118 00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 1: in that book. It is it's a novel set in 119 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 1: the year hence the title a novel of the next 120 00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:15,520 Speaker 1: World War, and of course it's about a war with China. 121 00:08:15,600 --> 00:08:19,800 Speaker 1: But here's the optimistic note um. The book is intended 122 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:25,880 Speaker 1: not as predictive fiction, but rather as cautionary fiction. The 123 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 1: idea of the book is to outline how a war 124 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 1: could start, how the US and China could stumble into 125 00:08:32,080 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 1: a war. And by the way, it begins in the 126 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:39,559 Speaker 1: South China Sea with a scenario set in a freedom 127 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 1: of navigation patrol very near the contested island features we 128 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 1: talked about. But here's the point. If we construct a plan, 129 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:52,680 Speaker 1: if we deter China, if we work with allies, partners 130 00:08:52,679 --> 00:08:58,120 Speaker 1: and friends, we can in fact avoid stumbling into a war. 131 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:01,960 Speaker 1: That's why it's so important that we create a coherent 132 00:09:02,120 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 1: plan ultimately to deter China. Bottom line, Look, the relationship 133 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:11,079 Speaker 1: with China is difficult. We're going to have to bend it. 134 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:13,960 Speaker 1: We want to be careful we don't end up breaking 135 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:17,760 Speaker 1: it and ending up in a war with China. I'm 136 00:09:17,840 --> 00:09:21,040 Speaker 1: told by our bureau chief in Taipei that people aren't 137 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:24,520 Speaker 1: that worried about China invading Taiwan. And twenty second, should 138 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:29,320 Speaker 1: they be um. I have one word for you. Ukraine 139 00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 1: people in Kiev ten months ago often said, we know 140 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 1: the Russians really well, they're not actually gonna invade. How 141 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,840 Speaker 1: did that turn out? Yeah, it's a cautionary tale. Admiral, 142 00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 1: thank you for joining us. A good shout retired Navy 143 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:47,920 Speaker 1: Admiral James Stafrida's former military commander of NATO and a 144 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:49,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg opinion columnist