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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to this live edition of voter Nomics, the Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: podcast where politics and markets collide. This year, we noticed

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Speaker 2: voters around the world we're going to have the ability

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Speaker 2: to turn markets, countries, and economies like never before. So

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Speaker 2: we created this series to help you make sense of

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Speaker 2: it all. And we're kind of in the final stretch now,

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Speaker 2: not many more elections to go, but quite a big one.

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Speaker 3: Come.

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Speaker 2: I'm Stephanie Flanders, head of Economics and Government at Bloomberg.

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Speaker 4: I'm Adrian Woodridge, an opinion columnist for Bloomberg Opinion, and.

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Speaker 5: I'm alegra Stratton and I write the readout newsletter that

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Speaker 5: goes out every day at five o'clock.

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Speaker 2: And we have with us for this whole episode. John mcilthwaite,

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Speaker 2: Editor in chief of Bloomberg, Thank you delighted to be here.

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Speaker 2: We've allowed John in as an interloper for this morning's proceedings,

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Speaker 2: which we are holding in Bloomberg's wonderful headquarters in London. Well,

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Speaker 2: as I mentioned, we're looking at the final stretch the

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Speaker 2: last two months of this pivotal US presidential race, and

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Speaker 2: we're also sitting here at the end of the first

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Speaker 2: two months of the new UK Labor government, which has

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Speaker 2: its critical first budget coming up in just seven weeks

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Speaker 2: time I was thinking on the tube here. One common

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Speaker 2: theme on the both sides of the Atlantic the last

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Speaker 2: few days has been that the honeymoon is over, so

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Speaker 2: over for Kamala Harris. If you believe the latest polls

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Speaker 2: from the New York Times this week, and in fact,

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Speaker 2: to some extent our own swing State pole that we've

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Speaker 2: been running every month since November, her momentum as a

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Speaker 2: new candidate appears to have stalled. That could all change

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Speaker 2: if she knocks it out of the park in the tonight.

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Speaker 2: We're going to talk about all of that plenty in

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Speaker 2: the second half of this show, But first I think

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Speaker 2: we should talk about the UK and John. Ever since

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Speaker 2: it came in, the government's not stop talking about tough choices,

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Speaker 2: hard times to come. Is it overdoing it? Is it

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Speaker 2: making the right tough choices?

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Speaker 6: It look like I think it's possibly overdoing the hard

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Speaker 6: times because the British economy is growing quite quickly. I think,

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Speaker 6: on the other hand, it does seem to run into

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Speaker 6: sort of problems at both ends on them. You've got

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Speaker 6: the winter fuel vote tonight, which obviously doesn't look as

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Speaker 6: if it's going to go particularly well. Even if they'll

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Speaker 6: win it quite sort of easily, it'll still it's still

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Speaker 6: caused a lot of sound and the other end, perhaps

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Speaker 6: more represented in this room, that there is everything to

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Speaker 6: do with the budget and fears of an exodus of

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Speaker 6: entrepreneurs and all those people. And I think it's interesting

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Speaker 6: the way that if you wander around places like the

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Speaker 6: city or you spend time with entrepreneurs, there has suddenly,

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Speaker 6: i think been over the past month roughly a fantastic

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Speaker 6: rethink about Starma. It's not quite sure exactly what it's

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Speaker 6: based on, but a whole series of people who voted

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Speaker 6: very casually for Starma or didn't really care when he

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Speaker 6: came in. I think we had a conversation about this

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Speaker 6: here and now deeply frightened, and people are talking about

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Speaker 6: the number of people just before he are going to

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Speaker 6: the United Arab Emirates, going to Italy, going to other

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Speaker 6: places in Europe latest i've now heard today with Cyprus anyway,

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Speaker 6: all these places have suddenly come up, and the idea

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Speaker 6: that Starmer's government is going to hit the growth part

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Speaker 6: of the British economy is something that I think has

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Speaker 6: suddenly become a new part of the debate.

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Speaker 2: Adrian, Do you think that? I mean, I guess the

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Speaker 2: big thing that's changed is he's now Prime Minister, and

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Speaker 2: people tend to like people less once they're actually in

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Speaker 2: power doing things.

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Speaker 4: No, I think the big thing that's changed is that

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Speaker 4: an illusion has disappeared. The illusion was that the Labor

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Speaker 4: Party in power would basically be like the tour is

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Speaker 4: only sane and they're not like the Tory. He's actually

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Speaker 4: a socialist, by which I mean that he doesn't want

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Speaker 4: to nationalize the means of production, but he does want

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Speaker 4: to introduce a quite a significant redistribution of wealth in society.

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Speaker 4: He's significantly to the left of Tony Blair. He thinks

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Speaker 4: that the rich have made out a bit like bandits

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Speaker 4: over the last couple of decades and that the poor

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Speaker 4: have been squeezed, and he is systematically or will be

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Speaker 4: systematically redistributing wealth away from the rich towards poorer people.

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Speaker 4: You can see that in the pay deal for train drivers.

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Speaker 4: You can see it in the pay deal for doctors.

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Speaker 4: We'll see it's in significant raises in taxes for people

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Speaker 4: with disposable income. And you can see it most dramatically

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Speaker 4: in the eighty on private schools. He basically thinks these

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Speaker 4: are not hard working people trying to do the best

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Speaker 4: for their children. He thinks they're basically que jumpers, and

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Speaker 4: they should be charged a decent whack for for jumping

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Speaker 4: the que if they're allowed to do it at all.

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Speaker 4: So I think he's he's a left wing figure and

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Speaker 4: will continue to be a left wing figure throughout the

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Speaker 4: next five years. This is not just a bit of

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Speaker 4: pain that we'll get through and when we reached and

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Speaker 4: then reached the sunny uplands, this is his belief.

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Speaker 2: Allegra, Do you think he's revealing himself to be a

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Speaker 2: rabbit socialist?

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Speaker 7: Oh?

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Speaker 4: Rabbit, I didn't use the word.

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Speaker 5: So I think to a certain extent, we are all

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Speaker 5: being played as someone who was.

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Speaker 7: No well.

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Speaker 5: I had to do the strategic comms for the Treasury

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Speaker 5: during some of Rishie's time as Chancellor, and you definitely

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Speaker 5: approach these big fiscal events by putting out the very

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Speaker 5: worst of what you were going to do, and then

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Speaker 5: in the end what you ended up doing was vanilla

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Speaker 5: or vanilla with a little bit of spice on top.

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Speaker 5: So that's classic playbook staff and I suspect don't know,

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Speaker 5: but I mean some of the things I'm hearing are that,

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Speaker 5: of course it won't be CGT going up to the

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Speaker 5: top rate of income tax. There's some kind of confusion

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Speaker 5: as that, you know, they perhaps they've got in to

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Speaker 5: the treasury in number ten and things aren't quite as

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Speaker 5: easy as they would like it to be, which we'll

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Speaker 5: get on too later about house building and the like

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Speaker 5: and what they're going to deliver in five years, but

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Speaker 5: certainly in this early period they have to manage expectations.

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Speaker 5: That is what they're doing that, and they're doing it

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Speaker 5: well because all of us are having this conversation now

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Speaker 5: about how willflick could end up being And then you know,

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Speaker 5: if they end up doing three percent on CGT, the

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Speaker 5: commentariats say, oh, you know, it wasn't too bad in

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Speaker 5: the end. I think there are some nonetheless some bits

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Speaker 5: that I think discern kind of unwise choices. I think,

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Speaker 5: you know, on the vat point on school fees, yes,

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Speaker 5: they were very clearly were going to do it. Yes,

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Speaker 5: they don't care that people don't like it. Where I

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Speaker 5: think they sort of reveal a weakness is around this idea,

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Speaker 5: it's vindictive to do it. In January, I think around

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Speaker 5: the union settlements. Again, they were quite clear, we're going

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Speaker 5: to settle this. Why haven't people settled it? Why has

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Speaker 5: ri she not settled it? It's so easy, why not

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Speaker 5: stick some reform in there? They didn't stick reform in there,

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Speaker 5: and then linked to that with winter fuel payment. You're

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Speaker 5: saying times are tough, but you've done these big and

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Speaker 5: these are choices that they are revealing that I think,

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Speaker 5: even in their own terms of kind of wanting to

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Speaker 5: redistribute and so on, are revealing, you know, a kind

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Speaker 5: of callousness, slash perhaps kind of disregard for their own

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Speaker 5: MPs that might in the end be a problem.

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Speaker 2: And just because of your experience, do you think the

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Speaker 2: winter fuel payment, at least the timing of it, if

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Speaker 2: not the decision itself, possibly both, is just a mistake

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Speaker 2: to allow that to be the one thing we could

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Speaker 2: focus on before the budget. I think air with the

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Speaker 2: public sector pay deals rather than have it all.

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Speaker 7: Be part of a big budget.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and giving and you know this, this this argument

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Speaker 5: they're making now, which just let the triple locks inflating

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Speaker 5: your income. Pensioners chill out, you know you're going to

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Speaker 5: be met up. Is the wrong way around to make it,

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Speaker 5: make that argument. It should have been by the way,

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Speaker 5: we're going to need to take this away. But you've

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Speaker 5: done quite well if that's an argument you're going to make.

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Speaker 5: I mean, it's something you know, you've got the leader

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Speaker 5: of the Welsh Stories coming out and saying it's cruel

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Speaker 5: and unnecessary. You know, it's it's it's a bit topsy turvy.

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Speaker 5: And there are other things you know, this room doesn't

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Speaker 5: need mean to tell. You know, there are other aspects

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Speaker 5: of revenue raising they could have gone for.

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Speaker 7: First.

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Speaker 5: I mean, the government was going to do another expensive

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Speaker 5: cut on national insurance. You know, did they necessarily have

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Speaker 5: to do that? Would that have been something given the

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Speaker 5: last government? The Conservative government are probably going to find

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Speaker 5: that difficult. Could they have found something creative there?

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Speaker 2: John, I'm interested. I sometimes think that a government can't

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Speaker 2: win on these things because there's a particular criticism around

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Speaker 2: the amount of uncertainty around the capital gains tax changes,

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Speaker 2: potential inheritance tax changes, even the details of some of

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Speaker 2: the non dom changes which they might they might build

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Speaker 2: on what the previous governments did. Because on the one hand,

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Speaker 2: we tend to say, well, that uncertainty is terrible. All

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Speaker 2: these people are going to leave, and then they might

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Speaker 2: find out it's better than they thought, but they will

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Speaker 2: have already left. But on the other hand, we usually say,

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Speaker 2: if these changes are rushed, they come in quickly with

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Speaker 2: no consultation and no discussion. You know that that's foolish

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Speaker 2: as well, because they'll have lots of hidden coment quinsies.

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Speaker 2: Given that they have, there's a presumption that then there

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Speaker 2: is going to be some increase in wealth and asset taxation,

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Speaker 2: which many economists would have said was justified given the

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Speaker 2: balance of taxes. How could they possibly have struck this

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Speaker 2: balance right for the kind of people in the city.

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Speaker 7: That we hear about.

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Speaker 6: A useful comparison is to go and look at Blair

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Speaker 6: human when Blair came in again, another sort of left

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Speaker 6: center guy who came in with the reputation for being

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Speaker 6: having moderated a party. He came in, He did the bank,

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Speaker 6: he did big sort of signature things. He's still you know,

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Speaker 6: he still did he did some stuff which people would

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Speaker 6: regard as.

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Speaker 2: Being on the left.

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Speaker 6: What Starmer's problem is is that just at the moment

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Speaker 6: when when Britain.

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Speaker 2: Is absolutely desperate for growth, he's.

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Speaker 6: Definitely opened up some possibility of growth in terms of

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Speaker 6: what he's doing on on planning, what he's doing on

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Speaker 6: environmental stuff. I think that, you know, there's definitely growth there.

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Speaker 6: You could argue that if he really wanted growth, the

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Speaker 6: obvious place to do it is to come up with

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Speaker 6: kind of deal with Europe, which I suppose would be

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Speaker 6: the area which I would I would have gone for.

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Speaker 6: And I think if he'd done that, I think that

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Speaker 6: would be that that would give him a little bit

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Speaker 6: more room with playing around with capital gains tags. I

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Speaker 6: think the problem is that he's suddenly hitting if you're

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Speaker 6: looking for growth, the one thing you don't want to

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Speaker 6: do as a left wing government. You don't want to

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Speaker 6: be Francoislon. You don't want to be the people who

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Speaker 6: come in and make us one big left wing thing

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Speaker 6: which scares away capital. That strikes me as mad. There

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Speaker 6: are other ways. I think the school fees thing will

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Speaker 6: make a little bit of difference to that that it's

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Speaker 6: not going to scare away exactly the most mobile people.

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Speaker 6: So I think there is I think there is a

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Speaker 6: genuine worry that just at a time when there was

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Speaker 6: quite a good story to tell the British economies growing.

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Speaker 6: You've got a moderate, as Adrian pointed out, sane government,

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Speaker 6: and we shouldn't forget that a lot of these things

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Speaker 6: were were set up or traps were set up by

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Speaker 6: the less sane members of the Tory Party, including definitely

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Speaker 6: the Europe stuff. But now coming in at this precise moment,

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Speaker 6: you don't want to send a message to international capital

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Speaker 6: that actually or not this nice pragmatic person, you're this

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Speaker 6: person who doesn't.

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Speaker 4: Like we're also closing down one particular post Brexit option.

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Speaker 4: One particular post Brexit option was that we would go

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Speaker 4: for the Singapore or the old Hong Kong model of

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Speaker 4: being a deregulated free markets haven for mobile capital, for entrepreneurship,

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Speaker 4: of all of those things off the shore of Europe.

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Speaker 4: Now we're definitely going through it. I think that was

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Speaker 4: a real option. I think if let me.

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Speaker 2: Just you said that years ago, that we've got rid

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Speaker 2: of that option. I mean, would you really think the

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Speaker 2: last few government, the last few conservative governments the Singapore option.

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Speaker 4: I don't think they were I don't think they knew

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Speaker 4: what they were doing. They were partly pursuing the Singapore option.

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Speaker 4: They're partly pursuing a different sort of option. They're partly

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Speaker 4: pursuing a leveling up option. But if we go for

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Speaker 4: the set of policies that start arm is putting into place,

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Speaker 4: we're definitely not going to go for that option, or blairized.

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Speaker 5: You're referring to the regulation on workers' rights and so on.

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Speaker 4: Referring to that, I'm referring to heavier taxes on capital.

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Speaker 4: Now I did something terrible for my sin jest. I

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Speaker 4: actually read the Dragi report, and the Drugi Report is

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Speaker 4: quite an interesting document, all five hundred pages of it,

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Speaker 4: because it makes it clear that Europe, if DRUGI gets

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Speaker 4: his way, is going to go for a very focused

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Speaker 4: industrial strategy version of Europe with consolidation of industries, with

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Speaker 4: a degree of self protectionism, with a degree of coherence

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Speaker 4: of policy. So it's going to double down on Europe

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Speaker 4: as it were. Now, that creates a strategic opportunity for Britain,

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Speaker 4: but it also creates threat for Britain. The strategic threat

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Speaker 4: is we're not part of that big block. So you've

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Speaker 4: got a world divided into the United States as a

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Speaker 4: big block, China as a big block, and Europe is

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Speaker 4: a big block and Britain offshore there.

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Speaker 2: That's that's the threat.

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Speaker 4: The opportunity is that we we go for a different model,

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Speaker 4: for a more flexible model, but we're going to be

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Speaker 4: trapped in this middle position of a highly regulated, redistributed economy,

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Speaker 4: shut out from the European market, or large junction of

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Speaker 4: the European market. So we lose on all fronts.

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Speaker 2: So we need to have a bit of a reality

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Speaker 2: check here. I mean, I'm just listening. Firstly, they have

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Speaker 2: five years and they've only been in office for two

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Speaker 2: months actually done anything yet that would sort of figure

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Speaker 2: in any history.

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Speaker 4: First impression, and these impressions are very bad.

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Speaker 2: First impressions may maup, but when we talk about doing

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Speaker 2: big things, that suggest that you're on a path to

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Speaker 2: a very socialist future and you're going to scare away

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Speaker 2: all of all of business. You know, in the last

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Speaker 2: fourteen years, we had Brexit, which did more clear economic

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Speaker 2: damage to the economy but also to the city's basic

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Speaker 2: position and with regard to Europe, than any single action

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Speaker 2: of any government. We had corporation tax, the key signal

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Speaker 2: to corporate to businesses around the world go down, but

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Speaker 2: then dramatically up. In the course a few years, we

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Speaker 2: had consistent instability and actually higher taxes on rich people consistently.

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Speaker 2: So it seems odd to me. We talked in the

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Speaker 2: campaign a lot about the importance above all of stability,

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Speaker 2: of sort of a basic commitment to a strategic economic model.

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Speaker 2: It seems a bit on. It may be that they're

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Speaker 2: going to screw up, but they really haven't done very

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Speaker 2: much yet on a drastically different.

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Speaker 4: First of all, the fact that the previous government did

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Speaker 4: a bunch of stupid things is not an excuse for

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Speaker 4: this government.

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Speaker 2: They haven't done that many stupid things.

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Speaker 4: But secondly, I think that it's not creating stability. They're

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Speaker 4: not creating stability, they're actually beginning to create instability. We

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Speaker 4: heard just before we came in this room from a

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Speaker 4: distinguished figure who said that twenty percent of his friends

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Speaker 4: were thinking of moving out of the country. You don't

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Speaker 4: think of moving out of the country because it's a stable,

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Speaker 4: welcoming blaze.

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Speaker 6: Just just as a pole in this room, anyone put

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Speaker 6: their hand up who has met someone who's just who

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Speaker 6: is thinking about going. I think just for those people

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Speaker 6: who are listening on the radio, I would say, virtually

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Speaker 6: everybody has their hand up.

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Speaker 7: That's not what.

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Speaker 2: Are they leaving because they actually think that the UK

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Speaker 2: is going to grow more slowly and have a less

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Speaker 2: stable future, or because they are concerned about their personal

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Speaker 2: tax situation, which is not a bad reason to leave.

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Speaker 2: What I'm saying that is the main three reason people

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Speaker 2: are leaving. It's not because they actually think the UK

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Speaker 2: is going to the dogs.

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Speaker 4: Well, that's wealth creation. These are a bunch of wealth

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Speaker 4: creators leaving the country and leaving the country with your opportunities.

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Speaker 7: Can I can I?

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Speaker 5: Can I move it on to talk about your five

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Speaker 5: year point that we're two months into five years, which

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Speaker 5: is if you look back at the Boris Johnson government

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Speaker 5: that had a similar mandate and it had didn't have

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Speaker 5: as thumping a majority as Kistarma has, but it had

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Speaker 5: you know, there was a similar vibe when he came

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Speaker 5: in of wow, we can you know we have we

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Speaker 5: have an ability to do what we want and he

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Speaker 5: was going to do leveling up and in Kissed Armer's case,

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Speaker 5: it is build, build, build. I think inside number ten

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Speaker 5: and eleven they will be aware that it isn't just

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Speaker 5: two months into five years that you have to start

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Speaker 5: to have an idea of how you break down these

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Speaker 5: systemic reasons why we haven't done this historically. So I

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Speaker 5: suppose I just want to be a corrective to the

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Speaker 5: yes they have five years. And one of our reporters,

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Speaker 5: who was talking about the Build Build, Build a gender

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Speaker 5: on the in the City podcast the other day, was saying,

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Speaker 5: you know, he suspects that that one point five million

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Speaker 5: of housing being built, well, probably a lot of it

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Speaker 5: will be at the back end because the systemic problems

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Speaker 5: that have stopped us building hitherto are real. Probably Rachel

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Speaker 5: Reeves and Kissed Armor are looking at them and getting advice,

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Speaker 5: which is it is not going to be that easy

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Speaker 5: to shift this. Otherwise other people would have done And

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Speaker 5: I think if you look back at the Johnson government,

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Speaker 5: there was a sense of like crumbs, how we're going

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Speaker 5: to do leveling, How we actually going to do this?

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Speaker 5: Is it going to take two terms? How we're going

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Speaker 5: to build these forty hospitals and so on? COVID came along,

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Speaker 5: so we actually didn't see that. The pandemic quite early

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Speaker 5: into his turn meant that there was a number of

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Speaker 5: other things he was judged by, but had it not

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Speaker 5: come along. I think you would have seen it sort

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Speaker 5: of how do we level up the country? Can we

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Speaker 5: break down these vested interests? And I think that that

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Speaker 5: is now true for Starma and I think the one

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Speaker 5: question I would ask over and above can you take

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Speaker 5: on Nimbi's and so on, is do we have the

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Speaker 5: workforce to do what you want to do?

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Speaker 7: A llego.

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Speaker 2: I love that you've taken us to that because we

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Speaker 2: are going to have to move on to the US.

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Speaker 2: And I think you're absolutely right. I mean, it's a

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Speaker 2: brilliant to have a good argument about it. Rare that

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Speaker 2: we can summon up such disagreement and voter nomics. But

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Speaker 2: I think my concern is that the government we end

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Speaker 2: up focusing on quite small things instead of the very

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Speaker 2: big challenges that they highlighted themselves in the campaign and allegory,

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Speaker 2: you're quite right. I mean six months time, if we're

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Speaker 2: still talking about all the things that we've just been

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Speaker 2: talking about, not talking about how they are tackling that

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Speaker 2: supply side agenda, and particularly things like housing supply planning,

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Speaker 2: unlocking in in the grass roots, not just what's going

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Speaker 2: on here in the city and with high paid accountants.

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Speaker 2: I think that will be a real indictment of the

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Speaker 2: government if we're still looking at these symbolic things, and

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Speaker 2: then I will start to side more with Adrian. But

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Speaker 2: we do have there are five years to go. Set

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Speaker 2: your clocks. People come back here in January. But we

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Speaker 2: do have. We have five years. And in the meantime,

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Speaker 2: of course, all those very smart labor strategists that got

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Speaker 2: labor aware of all of this, we have been quickly

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Speaker 2: getting out of Dodge to go and help somebody else,

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Speaker 2: and we have. We had a story this weekend that

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Speaker 2: was talking about how the labor strategists are going over

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Speaker 2: migrating to the US at least temporarily to lend their

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Speaker 2: help to the to the Kamala Harris campaign, to join

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Speaker 2: us to talk about the US election. In this kind

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Speaker 2: of final straight we have the head of Bloomberg Opinion,

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Speaker 2: Tim O'Brien, who's also the author of Trump Nation, The

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Speaker 2: Art of Being the Donald. Tim, happy to have you here.

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Speaker 2: That you've set yourself up this week. You're going to

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Speaker 2: have to stay up really late to watch the debate.

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Speaker 7: It'll be an all nighter.

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Speaker 2: Just just let's all talk about the debate briefly, and

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Speaker 2: then maybe then talk about this sort of last stretch

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Speaker 2: of the broader campaign out of being the Donald. Which

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Speaker 2: Donald do you think we'll see tonight?

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Speaker 7: Oh?

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Speaker 8: I think nasty Donald. I think you know, at the

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Speaker 8: RNC and Milwaukee, they wanted unifier Donald, and he had

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Speaker 8: every reason to do that. You know, he went into

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Speaker 8: the RNC in Milwaukee with incredible momentum. Biden had belly

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Speaker 8: flopped the convention eight in June, and there been the

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Speaker 8: failed assassination attempt, and he had a very good convention.

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Speaker 8: I was there at that convention. There was great energy

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Speaker 8: on the ground for the Republicans. And then he got

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Speaker 8: up on the stage and he spent about fifteen minutes

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Speaker 8: talking about being shot and sort of retold the tale

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Speaker 8: and then immediately went into division. And all of his

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Speaker 8: advisors were saying, talk about unity, bring the country together.

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Speaker 8: You have this advantage, you have all this momentum behind you,

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Speaker 8: and he couldn't do it because that's not who he is.

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Speaker 8: And I think his advisors are recommending tonight that the

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Speaker 8: kind Donald be on the debate stage. But I think,

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Speaker 8: like his speech of the RNC, you may get about

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Speaker 8: five minutes of kind Donald, and you'll get eighty five

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Speaker 8: minutes of nasty Donald.

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Speaker 2: But it's kind. And remember that It's worth remembering that

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Speaker 2: speech because it was while it was while Joe Biden

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Speaker 2: was still in the race, he was absolutely looked like

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Speaker 2: he was going to be sailing to November. I think tonight.

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Speaker 2: I mean, along with being kind, I think his advisers

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Speaker 2: are telling him to sort of stick on message, talk

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Speaker 2: about if he talks about policy, there's plenty that he

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Speaker 2: can take on about Karmala Harris. But I did hear

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Speaker 2: someone joke that was like asking him to stick on messages,

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Speaker 2: like asking your cat to do string theory.

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Speaker 8: He also doesn't believe it works. Just at his core,

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Speaker 8: he believes that when you're on the attack, you're winning.

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Speaker 5: Will not be nervous that he's taking on a woman

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Speaker 5: who is younger than him.

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Speaker 8: Well, I think what he's nervous about is she has

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Speaker 8: authentic charisma and star power. And Biden was a catatomic zombie,

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Speaker 8: and I think that he I think he wasn't he

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Speaker 8: wasn't worried yet, but you know, cool. And I think

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Speaker 8: the Trump campaign had positioned itself as even though Donald

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Speaker 8: Trump is seventy eight years old, he was the young

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Speaker 8: man in the race. And he was the vital player,

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Speaker 8: and he compared favorably to Biden in that regard, And

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Speaker 8: so they were campaigning at like a thirty five thousand

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Speaker 8: foot level. It really was this cult of personality a

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Speaker 8: on Trump. They were going to do it through social media.

438
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:32,919
Speaker 8: They have a horrible ground game. We can get to that.

439
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,200
Speaker 8: I think that might catch up to them. But they

440
00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:39,399
Speaker 8: really didn't care in Milwaukee in July because everything was

441
00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:43,560
Speaker 8: in their favor. And then the Democrats pulled off this

442
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,720
Speaker 8: amazing reversal of fortunes and put a new candidate in

443
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 8: play who is younger, is dynamic, has star power. And

444
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:54,399
Speaker 8: Trump is a student of very little, but he is

445
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:57,840
Speaker 8: a student of celebrity. And I think he recognizes this

446
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:00,360
Speaker 8: in her, and he's afraid of it. You know, he's

447
00:22:00,400 --> 00:22:03,199
Speaker 8: already raised whether or actually's really a black woman a

448
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:05,000
Speaker 8: number of times. I think if he says that on

449
00:22:05,040 --> 00:22:09,080
Speaker 8: a debate stage tonight, independent voters in Swaying States, which

450
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 8: is where the twenty twenty four election is going to

451
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:13,040
Speaker 8: be won, they don't want to hear that. They want

452
00:22:13,040 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 8: to hear about the economy.

453
00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:16,639
Speaker 2: John, I mean, I was tending expectations too low. I mean,

454
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:20,120
Speaker 2: if you go back to that debate with Joe Biden.

455
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 2: You could argue that Donald Trump was actually very disciplined

456
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 2: in that in the debate.

457
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:27,920
Speaker 6: He was disciplined. I was there with Tim and Milwaukee,

458
00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,840
Speaker 6: and it was extraordinary. The whole thing was around being nice.

459
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:33,000
Speaker 6: It was already soft focused. There were lots of people

460
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 6: coming in and degree of celebrities, everything like that, and

461
00:22:36,840 --> 00:22:39,679
Speaker 6: then every time a Trump came on stage, but particularly Donald,

462
00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:42,159
Speaker 6: it just went veering off. You know, there was a

463
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,320
Speaker 6: teleprompter and it was like watching one which he was

464
00:22:45,359 --> 00:22:47,000
Speaker 6: meant to be following. And to begin with it was

465
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:48,959
Speaker 6: going around quite calm, but in the then it hit

466
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:49,360
Speaker 6: it hits.

467
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:51,639
Speaker 2: With the debate with Biden, he wore the debate with Biden,

468
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,000
Speaker 2: he was the same setup he was, actually he did

469
00:22:54,080 --> 00:22:56,760
Speaker 2: so that the convention he went slightly crazy, but actually

470
00:22:57,320 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 2: the same circumstances and with the mics again going to

471
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 2: be silenced at least some degree. Are we as setting

472
00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 2: expectations too low? I mean, if he's as disciplined as

473
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 2: he was against Biden.

474
00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 7: I also wanted to watch.

475
00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:14,320
Speaker 4: We've just had two disastrous months for Trump in which

476
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:18,080
Speaker 4: the nasty Trump has been totally and completely dominant, which

477
00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:21,800
Speaker 4: the media has been ecstatic about Camilla, in which she

478
00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 4: has actually done much better than any of us expected.

479
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,120
Speaker 4: And there's still level pegging in the polls.

480
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:30,119
Speaker 8: Well, remember, though there's been a swing States, there was

481
00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:33,240
Speaker 8: a huge gap between Trump and Biden right prior to

482
00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:36,399
Speaker 8: Harris coming into the race, five to six points beyond

483
00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 8: the margin of aeron most poles. So she's closed that gap,

484
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,480
Speaker 8: but she hasn't bridged it and gone beyond him. But

485
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 8: you know, she's within two points of him in Florida.

486
00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,879
Speaker 8: If Donald Trump loses Florida, the race is over. I

487
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 8: think the other dynamic that's going on is that the

488
00:23:52,600 --> 00:23:56,000
Speaker 8: Poles don't really capture voters who are still turning out.

489
00:23:56,400 --> 00:24:01,280
Speaker 8: Democrats have had thirteen offices open in North Carolina since January.

490
00:24:01,600 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 8: The Republicans just opened their first, and they did it

491
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 8: with emergency funding from Elon Musk, And they're panicked about

492
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:11,400
Speaker 8: North Carolina, and ground games are where elections are won.

493
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:16,280
Speaker 8: You know, vibes reflect momentum, vibes reflect people's political biases

494
00:24:16,280 --> 00:24:18,240
Speaker 8: and affinities. But at the end of the day, the

495
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:24,160
Speaker 8: really tough work of campaigns is door knocking, direct mail advertising,

496
00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:27,680
Speaker 8: and phone banks and the Democrats and all the swing

497
00:24:27,720 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 8: states have more robust operations than the Republicans right now,

498
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 8: and polls don't capture those voters. It's sort of hockey sticks.

499
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,720
Speaker 8: You don't see them in like the last three to

500
00:24:37,800 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 8: five weeks of a campaign. They suddenly appear. You know

501
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:42,479
Speaker 8: that surprise Mitt Romney in twenty twelve when the Obama

502
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 8: people were in Florida and they were door knocking, and

503
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:47,040
Speaker 8: the Romney people were surprised at the end that they

504
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 8: lost Florida. But the Obama people knew it all along.

505
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:53,240
Speaker 4: But Trump, but Hillary Clinton had a much better gown

506
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:56,440
Speaker 4: game than eventually.

507
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 8: I would argue that she did. I think she was

508
00:24:58,040 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 8: absent in Michigan and Wisconsin, for example, and that cart

509
00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 8: through the race, and they actually thought they were going

510
00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:05,639
Speaker 8: to flip Georgia and Florida and that's where she was,

511
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:08,160
Speaker 8: and they needed to actually shore up the blue wall

512
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 8: in the Upper Midwest. So I don't actually think her

513
00:25:10,640 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 8: ground game was top drawer.

514
00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 2: That is very true. And it was interesting that the

515
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 2: director of the battleground campaign for the Democrats actually came

516
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 2: to one of our Bloomberg ground tables in Chicago at

517
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:23,639
Speaker 2: the Democrat convention, and I asked him what what the

518
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:26,560
Speaker 2: other side had of all the kind of apparatus that

519
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 2: had or the infrastructure on their side that he would

520
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:30,200
Speaker 2: like to have.

521
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 7: He said nothing.

522
00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,000
Speaker 2: He said there was no there was nothing that he'd

523
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 2: like to have on their side. But it is true

524
00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 2: that the polls in twenty twenty turned out to be

525
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:42,440
Speaker 2: much closer in those swing states than expected. So although

526
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:46,159
Speaker 2: Joe Biden won, he won by much smaller margins in

527
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 2: some of those states, and I think that has got

528
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,359
Speaker 2: people spooked, even with the ground game that they have.

529
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:53,520
Speaker 6: I think you're facing a very basic thing. If you

530
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:57,360
Speaker 6: ask people, when you get away from media bubbles, conventions things,

531
00:25:57,400 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 6: you ask people what they care about. You've got the economy,

532
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:02,959
Speaker 6: the US Trump on that, immigration they trust Trump on that,

533
00:26:03,000 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 6: and stuff to do with how America is strong in

534
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,119
Speaker 6: the world. So if what you said at the beginning

535
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:11,480
Speaker 6: I think is right is if he can stop being nasty,

536
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 6: stop being weird, and just focus on the policies, then

537
00:26:15,080 --> 00:26:17,879
Speaker 6: he's actually better or worse and not a bad position.

538
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 2: Bin Alega, do you think she has done or what

539
00:26:21,320 --> 00:26:23,439
Speaker 2: more do you think she needs to do on the economy,

540
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 2: because it is absolutely true it came through an our

541
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:28,760
Speaker 2: swing Staatephole by a wide margin. The most important issue

542
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 2: for people is the economy, and they do still favor

543
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:35,879
Speaker 2: Donald Trump by a wide margin on the economy. The

544
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:39,880
Speaker 2: only substantive speech with a generous use of the word substantive,

545
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:42,440
Speaker 2: that she's made has been on the economy.

546
00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:43,240
Speaker 7: But she's done enough.

547
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:47,400
Speaker 5: It's tricky because it's quite like it was for Richie Sunak,

548
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:50,960
Speaker 5: where you are trying to evaluate how you talk about

549
00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 5: the economy. On the one hand, you're coming out of,

550
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 5: you know, in the broad sweep of things, the pandemic

551
00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,239
Speaker 5: and then the inflation and cost of living crisis, so

552
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:02,159
Speaker 5: you have done a job objectively if you look at

553
00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:04,879
Speaker 5: sort of the last you know, medium term period. But

554
00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:07,399
Speaker 5: people are still feeling it. People are still feeling the

555
00:27:07,400 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 5: effect of everything being exceeded in expensive. So it's very

556
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 5: tricky for It was very tricky for Sunak to talk about.

557
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 5: I promise you'll get onto to Kamala Harris, but it's

558
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 5: very tricky for him to talk about. You know, do

559
00:27:17,440 --> 00:27:19,199
Speaker 5: I say, look at me pat on the back, have

560
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:21,199
Speaker 5: done really well or do I feel their pain and

561
00:27:21,240 --> 00:27:23,000
Speaker 5: talk about that? And you can see that she is

562
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 5: struggling with how to talk about On the one hand,

563
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:27,920
Speaker 5: I've done a good job, Pat me on the back

564
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 5: and tell me if I'm wrong. But then she's also

565
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:33,199
Speaker 5: talking about cost of living, price gouging with grocery shopping

566
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 5: and so on, So it's trying to connect while also

567
00:27:36,240 --> 00:27:37,920
Speaker 5: say hey, we didn't do such a bad job.

568
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:38,879
Speaker 7: It's really tricky.

569
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,439
Speaker 5: I covered as a TV reporter, I covered the Democratic

570
00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 5: primaries in twenty nineteen.

571
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 7: I wasn't that impressed with her.

572
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 5: She was in the TV debates then she was the

573
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:51,400
Speaker 5: worst performer most of the time. So you know, I'm

574
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:53,800
Speaker 5: interested to see this evening the extent to which she

575
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 5: you know, we know Talsea Gabbard is advising Trump. Tulsi

576
00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:00,080
Speaker 5: Gabbard was in those TV debates and she absolutely and

577
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 5: died a couple of blows. So it'd be interesting to

578
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:05,240
Speaker 5: see any effect that she has as an advisor in

579
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:08,480
Speaker 5: that kind of question that the Trump's team must surely

580
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 5: be having, which is, to what extent do you go

581
00:28:10,880 --> 00:28:13,640
Speaker 5: in for the jugular or do you let her as

582
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 5: he did with Biden? Do you let her kind of

583
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:17,679
Speaker 5: on some of these flip flops, do you let her

584
00:28:17,720 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 5: sort of reveal her own problems.

585
00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 4: I also wonder, contrary to what Tim's saying, whether nasty

586
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:27,399
Speaker 4: is necessarily a bad thing with him, because you Richard Nixon.

587
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 4: Richard Nixon once said, never underestimate the amount of evil

588
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 4: there is in people. Yeah, and you know, he won

589
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 4: two elections.

590
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:38,479
Speaker 7: Tim, people, I wonder, I'm sure he won one election.

591
00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 7: And he's last every he's last every when people look.

592
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 5: Back at the Trump Hillary Clinton debates, TV debates, there's

593
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 5: a New York Times report Trump Sorry, who went through

594
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:51,080
Speaker 5: all of them this weekend? She watched all of them,

595
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:53,960
Speaker 5: and she said he comes across this free wheeling, chaotic

596
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 5: and crazy. But actually actually he probably had the last

597
00:28:57,120 --> 00:29:00,160
Speaker 5: laugh in a number of fronts. So she's meticulous. She

598
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:02,440
Speaker 5: lands blows, And I just wonder whether you know.

599
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 8: Well, but remember the polling after all three of those debates,

600
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:07,000
Speaker 8: she was perceived by a large margins and one and

601
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:08,840
Speaker 8: all three, and she went on to lose the election.

602
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:13,040
Speaker 8: So I think that debates ultimately don't turn elections, but

603
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 8: they do they do clarify and solidify people's sense of

604
00:29:16,720 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 8: the person pain.

605
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:21,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, the economy in the grassroots is figuring very prominently

606
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 2: because there's the legacy of inflation, which just is is

607
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 2: still there in people's minds. But on the big picture

608
00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 2: macro policies, feels like remarkably little concern about the macroeconomic

609
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:39,800
Speaker 2: mix that Donald Trump, you know, still probably the most

610
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:42,880
Speaker 2: likely winner of this election, is promising for the next

611
00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 2: few years. And I was particularly struck he gave this

612
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 2: speech to the economic worst speech just had a discussion

613
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:51,320
Speaker 2: that involved just him at the Economic Club of New

614
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 2: York last week to a pretty luminous, you know, almost

615
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 2: as important audience as the one we have here at

616
00:29:56,600 --> 00:30:01,120
Speaker 2: Bloomberg and barely sort of turning ahead as he talked

617
00:30:01,160 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 2: about policies that would explode the deficit and potentially also

618
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:09,760
Speaker 2: push up inflation quite dramatically. I mean, we know that

619
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 2: the increase in tariffs alone would push inflation back well

620
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 2: over a target next year. So I mean, Timm, are

621
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 2: you surprised by how little focused there is on that

622
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,320
Speaker 2: in the business community, which actually seems to be quite

623
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 2: sort of resigned to a potential Trump presidency.

624
00:30:24,440 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 8: Well, I mean, I think for good reason, the business

625
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 8: community wants less regulation. I think the business community also

626
00:30:29,360 --> 00:30:32,600
Speaker 8: wants lower to tax taxes, and often I think the

627
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 8: business community can look through those narrow prisms as the

628
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 8: foundations for good macroeconomic growth without thinking long term about

629
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:43,760
Speaker 8: other things like the availability of labor or investment capital.

630
00:30:44,040 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 8: I don't think Donald Trump talked about policy in New York.

631
00:30:46,520 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 7: It was gibberish.

632
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 8: I mean, calling it policy is a polite a polite word.

633
00:30:50,680 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 8: He explained what he well, he hasn't thought through any

634
00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 8: of this stuff. And I think he was taken by

635
00:30:55,520 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 8: surprise about a question about childcare and how do you

636
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:00,720
Speaker 8: fund childcare? And rather than talk about, you know, a

637
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:03,840
Speaker 8: child tax care credit or an earned income tax credit

638
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:07,840
Speaker 8: or direct subsidies, he grabbed for the tariff straw, which

639
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 8: you know, Donald Trump's not a conservative, He's an anarchist.

640
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 8: And when you say you're going to impose twenty percent

641
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:16,440
Speaker 8: across the board tariffs and fifty percent tariffs on China,

642
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 8: it's inflationary, it's bad for global trade. And what he

643
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 8: believes then is he gets several trillion dollars of money

644
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 8: come into the White House in a bag, and then

645
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 8: he gets to spend that on various programs, one of

646
00:31:27,840 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 8: which is childcare. So it's sort of like painting with numbers.

647
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 8: He hasn't thought it through, and I think he was

648
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,320
Speaker 8: somewhat panicked by the question, so he went into word

649
00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 8: salad and spun it along and then said, yes, I'll

650
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:40,720
Speaker 8: use tariffs to play for childcare.

651
00:31:40,760 --> 00:31:42,360
Speaker 6: I think I think it's interesting though, that I think

652
00:31:42,360 --> 00:31:44,800
Speaker 6: Trump sorted through. There are two extraordinary things to me. One,

653
00:31:44,840 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 6: there's this group of people who do genuinely think that's

654
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 6: slamming on tariffs at this level, it's doing a million

655
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 6: people back across the border will actually it's the right

656
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 6: thing to do, and not just the right thing to

657
00:31:54,800 --> 00:31:57,479
Speaker 6: do economically, will cause growth. They are very much at

658
00:31:57,520 --> 00:31:59,960
Speaker 6: the fringe of Stephanie would regard as economics.

659
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:01,640
Speaker 2: But Milwaukee, you met these people.

660
00:32:01,680 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 6: They are it's a pattern of thought which is tied

661
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 6: together and which they think makes sense. So even if

662
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 6: he and I think he is a bit like the

663
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:12,120
Speaker 6: kind of child who's been sitting in sitting around the

664
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 6: dining table, hearing a few things, but he does tend

665
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 6: you know, the earliest things he ever did was to

666
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 6: back Tariff's opos N after all that sort of stuff,

667
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 6: so it does chime with him. The second thing, which

668
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:25,280
Speaker 6: in this case, I'm more like Stephanie feels about rich

669
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 6: people in Britain. I'm generally staggered by the number of

670
00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:33,880
Speaker 6: kind of capitalists in America who sort of think that's

671
00:32:33,880 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 6: okay for exactly the reasons that Tim said. They just

672
00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:39,080
Speaker 6: tend to think of it's lower taxes were sought out

673
00:32:39,120 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 6: of the rest with Trump, but this time it could

674
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 6: be a lot more difficult.

675
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,120
Speaker 5: Are they're worried about vendettas as well if he becomes

676
00:32:45,960 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 5: I mean.

677
00:32:46,680 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 6: His Tim is a target of many familiar with.

678
00:32:53,320 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 8: I think that John, you know your point about this

679
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,960
Speaker 8: time around, they're evangelical about it is important because they

680
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 8: they went to school in his first administration and now

681
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:06,360
Speaker 8: they know how the lots on the doors work. And

682
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 8: he's bringing in people. He's not going to have the

683
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:12,600
Speaker 8: gym Mattises of the world, you know, or the tailor

684
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 8: Sins of the world. It's going to be people who

685
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 8: are more movement Trumpists. And I think he wants to

686
00:33:19,520 --> 00:33:22,280
Speaker 8: pull the US out of NATO for example. We're going

687
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:23,720
Speaker 8: to see some of these sort of things happen on

688
00:33:23,760 --> 00:33:27,000
Speaker 8: the foreign policy front. They want mass migrations of migrants.

689
00:33:27,040 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 8: I don't think they've thought about.

690
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:30,520
Speaker 2: How to do that, mass deportation.

691
00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 8: Deportation. Yes of immigrants. It's all very trumpst without being economically,

692
00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:39,920
Speaker 8: democratically or rationally sensible.

693
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:42,720
Speaker 4: Well, wait a minute, in terms of being sensible or

694
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:48,959
Speaker 4: not being sensible, between about nineteen twenty four and the

695
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 4: early seventies, America pursued many of these policies in terms

696
00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 4: of very restrictive policies on immigration, in terms of a

697
00:33:57,200 --> 00:34:00,840
Speaker 4: very nationalist set of policies with high tariff protectionism in

698
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 4: the rest of it, particularly in the nineteen twenties and

699
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 4: nineteen thirties, which wait a minute, which which was very

700
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:11,200
Speaker 4: bad for the world economy. For a while, it was

701
00:34:11,280 --> 00:34:13,800
Speaker 4: quite good for the American economy, as nineteen twenties America

702
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:16,680
Speaker 4: had the biggest boom that he's ever had. So I'm

703
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:20,040
Speaker 4: not sure that Trump's policies and the businessmen who support

704
00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:23,400
Speaker 4: Trump's policies would in the short term be catastrophic for America.

705
00:34:23,400 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 4: I think it'd be bad for the world. I think

706
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:26,880
Speaker 4: in the longer term it would be bad for America.

707
00:34:27,040 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 4: But I think you could follow a Trump reelection with

708
00:34:30,800 --> 00:34:32,920
Speaker 4: some of the policies that he's talking about with a

709
00:34:34,000 --> 00:34:34,800
Speaker 4: Trump boom.

710
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:38,279
Speaker 8: So are you disappointed with the rapid GDP growth, wage growth,

711
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:40,400
Speaker 8: and job growth that's already happened over the last four years.

712
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 4: I would say that a lot of what Biden was

713
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 4: doing was consolidating big changes that Trump had been put

714
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:50,880
Speaker 4: into place. I think we're moving from a world in

715
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:56,399
Speaker 4: which prosperity obviously flows from free trade policies to one

716
00:34:56,400 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 4: in which certain countries, powerful countries, America being one of them,

717
00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 4: can you used industrial strategy, industrial policy, tariffs actually to

718
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:07,200
Speaker 4: boost its domestic economy. So I would say that Trump

719
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:12,040
Speaker 4: is the break, Biden is the continuation of Trump, and

720
00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:14,880
Speaker 4: that a further Trump presidency I think disastrous in the

721
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:17,239
Speaker 4: long term, but might in the short term be very

722
00:35:17,239 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 4: good for American business, which is one of the reasons

723
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:21,759
Speaker 4: why American business likes it. It doesn't like it because

724
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:25,960
Speaker 4: it's stupid. It likes it because it sees real benefits

725
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:27,480
Speaker 4: for the US economy.

726
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,400
Speaker 2: You heard it here. First, we should be partying like

727
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 2: it's nineteen twenty seven, nineteen twenty eight. That's what we're

728
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 2: going for.

729
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 4: As I said it, long term disaster.

730
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 2: Long term, it's like three years. I think it's very

731
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:44,399
Speaker 2: good to have a range of perspectives, but I think

732
00:35:44,400 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 2: we probably all agree that there does seem to be

733
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:48,719
Speaker 2: a slightly short term perspective of many of these businesses

734
00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:51,440
Speaker 2: looking at the mix of policies, and I can't As

735
00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:54,880
Speaker 2: an economist, I find it very painful, just precisely what

736
00:35:54,920 --> 00:35:57,359
Speaker 2: Tim was identifying, this idea that you can raise an

737
00:35:57,440 --> 00:36:01,759
Speaker 2: enormous amount from tariffs and also create enormous numbers of

738
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:04,800
Speaker 2: import competing manufacturing jobs in the US, because if you

739
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:06,920
Speaker 2: raise a lot of money, that means you've completely failed

740
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:09,360
Speaker 2: to reduce imports because you're making lots of money on

741
00:36:09,360 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 2: the tariff. Just to say, I wish I could just

742
00:36:11,520 --> 00:36:14,959
Speaker 2: tell him, okay, questions, you get to have your say.

743
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:16,960
Speaker 2: And I think that actually the hand here was the

744
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:17,839
Speaker 2: first one to go up.

745
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 9: So absolutely fascinating, just picking up what Tim and Adriam

746
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:24,399
Speaker 9: we're talking about, and picking up on what the head

747
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:26,399
Speaker 9: of the CIA and m I six was saying last

748
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:29,840
Speaker 9: week about this being the most dangerous point since the

749
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:33,160
Speaker 9: end of the Cold War. Will a Trump presidency, how

750
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,239
Speaker 9: serious will it be globally? We've heard a lot, but

751
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 9: not so much about the global picture.

752
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:40,840
Speaker 2: We might take one other one, just take them in

753
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:42,120
Speaker 2: in pairs.

754
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 1: Thank you very much. I was slightly surprised. I mean,

755
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:47,400
Speaker 1: I know you can't cover everything, but no mention was

756
00:36:47,440 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 1: made of climate action and changes that are needed for

757
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:56,240
Speaker 1: economy in the positions of the different players, and also

758
00:36:56,320 --> 00:37:00,640
Speaker 1: the potential social unrest that we've seen in the UK

759
00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:03,840
Speaker 1: and how that might play out after the election in

760
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 1: the States, and obviously all these things are absolutely crucial

761
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,200
Speaker 1: to the economy. That's what you want to focus on,

762
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:09,600
Speaker 1: thank you.

763
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 2: Okay, So the rest of the world, dangerous for the

764
00:37:11,960 --> 00:37:13,640
Speaker 2: rest of the world, and climate, which of course are

765
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:15,480
Speaker 2: too related, But allegra, do you want.

766
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 5: To And clearly Trump is concerning for the climate agenda.

767
00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 5: I think he's more likely to unwind the regulations in

768
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:25,720
Speaker 5: the US around environmental protection than necessarily. You know, Ira

769
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:29,880
Speaker 5: was very cleverly, brilliantly constructed by the Biden administration to

770
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 5: see a lot of Republican areas benefit in terms of

771
00:37:33,200 --> 00:37:37,240
Speaker 5: jobs and investments. So hopefully he gets that and leaves

772
00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:40,359
Speaker 5: that alone. But on the sort of points about coal

773
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 5: and so and spewing forth lots of pollution, I think

774
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:45,520
Speaker 5: that's the sort of REGs that will go. And then

775
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:48,600
Speaker 5: more broadly the international agenda, the cops and so on.

776
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:51,279
Speaker 5: People are telling me to not worry too much that

777
00:37:51,320 --> 00:37:53,240
Speaker 5: there's still sort of logic he's not going to copy

778
00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:56,520
Speaker 5: this year is of course, straight after his election, a

779
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 5: lot of people forgive me if he wins, a lot

780
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 5: of people saying if he wins, he's unlikely to do pyrotechnics,

781
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:05,319
Speaker 5: immediately pull out, not go, because of course he pulled

782
00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 5: out of the Paris Agreement back in his last term.

783
00:38:08,120 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 7: Wait and see.

784
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 5: I think Ira protects the agenda somewhat because it's been

785
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:14,920
Speaker 5: so focused on Republican areas.

786
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:17,719
Speaker 6: I think very quickly on the going to Milwaukee that

787
00:38:18,000 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 6: the two things you could say if you're a Republican speaking,

788
00:38:20,960 --> 00:38:24,719
Speaker 6: no matter how boring, to encourage things was one talk

789
00:38:24,760 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 6: about transgender stuff and people girls and boys, teams and

790
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 6: things like that. And the other thing was just to

791
00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 6: mention the word energy, and the whole room would burst

792
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:37,960
Speaker 6: into drill baby drills.

793
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 7: Been quite a lot of that as well. So yes,

794
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:40,960
Speaker 7: but it's.

795
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:42,840
Speaker 6: Still that SA on that side, I would be worried.

796
00:38:42,920 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 6: Notwithstanding what Legra said on the on Anthony's point about

797
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:50,319
Speaker 6: the wider world, I think there is the transactional. I mean,

798
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:55,160
Speaker 6: is Trump going to cause as problems? Yes, I'm nati.

799
00:38:55,239 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 6: I'm not as sure as Tim but I'm worried about that.

800
00:38:59,239 --> 00:39:02,399
Speaker 6: I think you have to admit though with Trump he's

801
00:39:02,480 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 6: very transactional, so I think, and he's transactional and he

802
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 6: doesn't want to be seen to be a wimp. So

803
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:12,880
Speaker 6: if you take a problem like Ukraine, for instance, I

804
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:16,440
Speaker 6: think it's possible to imagine Trump quite quickly trying to

805
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:19,719
Speaker 6: come to some kind of deal with Putin that we

806
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 6: might all disapprove of, but might vaguely set the borders

807
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:26,439
Speaker 6: where they are at the moment and sort of let

808
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 6: Ukraine come into a NATO version of NATO. But that

809
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 6: sounds why the Ukrainians know. Would that satisfy people who

810
00:39:34,480 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 6: support them? No, but it's pay Putin? Probably not, but

811
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 6: it might be a way out of it. So I

812
00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 6: think there's on China. I think it's the same kind

813
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:45,000
Speaker 6: of dynamic. Trump is so blown up with his own

814
00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:47,760
Speaker 6: sense of ability to be able to talk to people,

815
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 6: but again, he would be looking to try and do

816
00:39:49,760 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 6: deals at the end of it. He is an American firster. Well,

817
00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:59,759
Speaker 6: that's been his entire strategy. That has terrible consequences sometimes

818
00:39:59,800 --> 00:40:04,040
Speaker 6: for based like Europe. But it does mean that he

819
00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 6: doesn't want to give in to things He doesn't want

820
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 6: to look too weak. Again, Tim knows more about it.

821
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:11,400
Speaker 2: And I think that the sort of pivot away from Europe,

822
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 2: although it would be more extreme under Trump, I think

823
00:40:13,640 --> 00:40:15,960
Speaker 2: you'd have to expect it that at some level that

824
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:21,000
Speaker 2: is a structural shift. Yes, absolutely, A couple more questions. Okay,

825
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:22,640
Speaker 2: So for this side, maybe we take these two.

826
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:28,320
Speaker 10: On this side, Adrian's written brilliantly on meritocracy. One threat

827
00:40:30,040 --> 00:40:34,799
Speaker 10: is that inequality of income and wealth feeds through into

828
00:40:34,840 --> 00:40:39,400
Speaker 10: inequality of opportunity. What are the redistributionist policies in Britain

829
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:43,879
Speaker 10: therefore that you would support me? Yes, you, it must

830
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,359
Speaker 10: be something you would support on redistribution if it's going

831
00:40:46,400 --> 00:40:51,040
Speaker 10: to enhance equality of opportunity and support the meritocracy that

832
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 10: you've defended.

833
00:40:52,320 --> 00:40:57,080
Speaker 4: I'd be much more concerned with broadening opportunity. Has happened

834
00:40:57,160 --> 00:40:59,840
Speaker 4: under Blair, and I would say that the ways to

835
00:40:59,880 --> 00:41:04,640
Speaker 4: do that would be to extend access to private schools

836
00:41:04,680 --> 00:41:08,280
Speaker 4: by making it easier to pay, by increasing the number

837
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:16,560
Speaker 4: of scholarships available, by having a substantial investment. Again, has

838
00:41:16,600 --> 00:41:23,360
Speaker 4: happened under Blair in early opportunities for deprived children. So

839
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:27,920
Speaker 4: I would focus more on opportunity more on creating avenues

840
00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:34,160
Speaker 4: of upward educational mobility. On the issue of transferring wealth

841
00:41:34,200 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 4: down the generations, I'm in two minds, but I think

842
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:40,920
Speaker 4: at the moment, given what's happening in the rest of

843
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 4: the world in terms of a sort of the consolidation

844
00:41:43,640 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 4: of big trading economic blocks, I don't think Britain's interest

845
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 4: lies in being less welcoming to wealthy people.

846
00:41:53,400 --> 00:41:55,840
Speaker 3: I think in the US campaign at some point Kamala

847
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:58,479
Speaker 3: Harris talked about rent controls. I think in the UK,

848
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:02,399
Speaker 3: previous Conservative government tried to regulate football clubs and debate

849
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:04,600
Speaker 3: whether we have a right to have a local football club.

850
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:09,200
Speaker 3: The reaction to the Oasis tickets was to regulate ticket Master.

851
00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:12,000
Speaker 3: Even the winter fuel allowance. You know, there's actually no

852
00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:14,920
Speaker 3: meta debate about whether it's the role of government to

853
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:17,359
Speaker 3: be sort of create little pots of money we hand

854
00:42:17,360 --> 00:42:20,680
Speaker 3: out for winter fuel. Is there anyone, in part from

855
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:24,120
Speaker 3: maybe Kemy Badenoch, who actually thinks in both these countries

856
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 3: that government perhaps should do less but do it better.

857
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:28,759
Speaker 2: That's a good question. I mean, I do think it's

858
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 2: very striking. In the US, you've had this sort of

859
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:35,880
Speaker 2: much discussion around the polarization of the electorate and the

860
00:42:35,960 --> 00:42:38,280
Speaker 2: dramatic sort of moved to the right of the Republican

861
00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 2: Party and the move to the left of the Democrats,

862
00:42:41,200 --> 00:42:43,600
Speaker 2: but they've almost never been so close on many of

863
00:42:43,640 --> 00:42:45,759
Speaker 2: the sort of key elements of the key instincts of

864
00:42:45,800 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 2: economic policy. You know, we both sides have moved a

865
00:42:49,080 --> 00:42:52,839
Speaker 2: long way from the sort of new Democrats slash free

866
00:42:52,880 --> 00:42:56,120
Speaker 2: market era that many of us kind of started our

867
00:42:56,120 --> 00:42:59,759
Speaker 2: careers in. I think that's less obvious in the UK,

868
00:42:59,840 --> 00:43:01,920
Speaker 2: but I do think, you know, to our further discussion,

869
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 2: I think we're probably exaggerating how dramatic some of these

870
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 2: socialist tendencies are in the Labor Party.

871
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:11,239
Speaker 5: Just to respond to your question, people say, you know,

872
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:14,560
Speaker 5: it's a good strap line in a TV hustings, and

873
00:43:14,600 --> 00:43:16,399
Speaker 5: I'm sure Kenny, you know, says it to a great

874
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 5: effect and indeed probably lives.

875
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 7: Trust would be the other one who thinks it.

876
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 5: But the problem is that once they are in government,

877
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:23,719
Speaker 5: possibly she's in government, or whoever wins it is in

878
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:26,640
Speaker 5: government in five years time, possibly when there is then

879
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:28,480
Speaker 5: something that is on the front pages and it runs

880
00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:30,960
Speaker 5: and runs and runs. In reality, the prime minister's official

881
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 5: spokesman because person gets asked about this, They get asked

882
00:43:33,000 --> 00:43:35,760
Speaker 5: about it at PMQ's just the nature of our political

883
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 5: system demands that people are on the hook. And until

884
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:41,120
Speaker 5: you have a political class that is happy to say

885
00:43:41,200 --> 00:43:43,680
Speaker 5: nothing to do with me, take the selsewhere, which we

886
00:43:43,719 --> 00:43:46,560
Speaker 5: don't have. We don't have a media class that is

887
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:48,959
Speaker 5: prepared to think that that's an acceptable response either.

888
00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 4: Slightly on us too, but a lot of this is

889
00:43:50,960 --> 00:43:53,239
Speaker 4: just performative, isn't it. We didn't end up regulating the

890
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:55,239
Speaker 4: football market. We're not going to regulate the price of

891
00:43:55,280 --> 00:43:58,240
Speaker 4: a rated tickets. We just say a few things and

892
00:43:58,280 --> 00:43:59,879
Speaker 4: then everybody forgets about it.

893
00:44:00,160 --> 00:44:02,480
Speaker 8: I mean, you know, I think to Sebastian's question too

894
00:44:02,480 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 8: about redistribution, when we start to talk about the tax structure,

895
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 8: you know, we sometimes just frame this solely where our

896
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 8: income taxes. Obviously this is of great interest in the

897
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 8: UK right now, but I think in the UK only

898
00:44:16,600 --> 00:44:19,879
Speaker 8: about ten percent of government revenue comes from corporate income

899
00:44:19,920 --> 00:44:22,880
Speaker 8: taxes and about twenty percent comes from personal income taxes.

900
00:44:23,080 --> 00:44:26,279
Speaker 8: In the US, about fifty percent of government revenue is

901
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:29,760
Speaker 8: from personal income taxes and only ten percent from corporate taxes.

902
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:32,920
Speaker 8: And I think there's this sort of veil around this

903
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:35,719
Speaker 8: discussion in which we don't really just get it's sort

904
00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:39,240
Speaker 8: of the core basic foundations of how the government creates

905
00:44:39,239 --> 00:44:42,520
Speaker 8: and draws in revenue, Whether there's an equitable balance between

906
00:44:42,560 --> 00:44:45,680
Speaker 8: a corporate tax and a personal income tax. I would

907
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:48,360
Speaker 8: say that the personal income taxes as a percentage of

908
00:44:48,400 --> 00:44:50,760
Speaker 8: the pie in both countries is wildly out of skew

909
00:44:51,480 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 8: relative to the corporate tax rates. And then what's the

910
00:44:55,200 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 8: proper role for the government with that pot of money

911
00:44:58,360 --> 00:45:01,879
Speaker 8: and a well run government, and it helps create economic opportunity,

912
00:45:02,080 --> 00:45:05,799
Speaker 8: I think first and foremost, and there's a strong role

913
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:10,440
Speaker 8: for that, and I think that's where public policy should

914
00:45:10,440 --> 00:45:12,759
Speaker 8: be geared towards, and it should be geared towards opportunity.

915
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:14,560
Speaker 7: To go back, the inflation debate in.

916
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:18,720
Speaker 8: The US is a small facet of a larger affordability debate.

917
00:45:19,080 --> 00:45:20,480
Speaker 4: Just to go quickly back to, I think we do

918
00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:22,600
Speaker 4: have a very interesting model in Europe which we could

919
00:45:22,760 --> 00:45:25,600
Speaker 4: in this country be moving closer to, which is the

920
00:45:25,600 --> 00:45:27,840
Speaker 4: model that they have in Sweden, whereby you're allowed to

921
00:45:28,000 --> 00:45:31,240
Speaker 4: use state money to send your children to private schools.

922
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:34,320
Speaker 4: You have a market, you have a vouch, your system,

923
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:38,000
Speaker 4: you have no inheritance tax whatsoever. You actually, I think

924
00:45:38,040 --> 00:45:40,960
Speaker 4: to Sweden has twice the number per capita of billionaires

925
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 4: that the United States has, and yet there is a

926
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 4: great sense that this country has lots of upward mobility.

927
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:50,759
Speaker 4: So I think it is possible to combine these two things.

928
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:53,239
Speaker 4: It's just that we in Britain are determined to go

929
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:54,439
Speaker 4: down exactly the wrong road.

930
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:58,440
Speaker 5: And also, to answer Sebastian's point, I don't know how

931
00:45:58,440 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 5: many of you here at watching Freddie Flinn toss Field

932
00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:03,319
Speaker 5: of Dreams, but certainly I recommend it.

933
00:46:03,320 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 7: You recommend it.

934
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 5: It's amazing and he goes to press them where he

935
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:10,400
Speaker 5: grew up, and he actually acts like he teach them

936
00:46:10,440 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 5: cricket and a lot. But he is a youth worker

937
00:46:13,800 --> 00:46:17,840
Speaker 5: and we cut them that service to smithereens during the

938
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:20,760
Speaker 5: last ten to fifteen years of the last Conservative government.

939
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:22,920
Speaker 5: And I think that's something that a lot of Conservatives

940
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:25,399
Speaker 5: would look back on and regret. And if you talk

941
00:46:25,400 --> 00:46:27,839
Speaker 5: about social mobility, you know, it's one thing to talk

942
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:30,280
Speaker 5: about it in London and the southeast, but think about

943
00:46:30,280 --> 00:46:34,320
Speaker 5: it in those incredibly poor towns and cities, towns mostly

944
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:37,719
Speaker 5: in the north, where kids don't have an adult.

945
00:46:37,480 --> 00:46:39,800
Speaker 7: Figure to look up to. How on earth you're.

946
00:46:39,680 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 5: Going to get any meritocracy going in those areas if

947
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:44,359
Speaker 5: you don't have a figure. I mean, they can't all

948
00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:47,960
Speaker 5: have Freddie Flintoff, who is an electric character, but.

949
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:49,759
Speaker 7: They can have and they did have.

950
00:46:50,120 --> 00:46:52,280
Speaker 5: And I think that's possibly because we had the pandemic

951
00:46:52,320 --> 00:46:54,560
Speaker 5: and then the cost of living song. We haven't reflected

952
00:46:54,600 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 5: on deficit reduction and whether it was done in the

953
00:46:56,560 --> 00:46:58,840
Speaker 5: right way if you agree with it, A lot of

954
00:46:58,880 --> 00:47:00,560
Speaker 5: people don't agree with it. But if you do agree

955
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:02,440
Speaker 5: with it, did they do the right cuts? And they

956
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:05,239
Speaker 5: cut youth services, they cut drug services, they cut social care.

957
00:47:05,480 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 5: A lot of things became the crises of the last

958
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:08,600
Speaker 5: five years.

959
00:47:09,360 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 2: I think that is one of the great challenges, is

960
00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 2: whether you can shift from not just the focus on

961
00:47:15,760 --> 00:47:18,279
Speaker 2: when we think about investment, not just physical infrastructure, but

962
00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 2: social infrastructure. I think social infrastructure has been so neglected

963
00:47:22,520 --> 00:47:25,000
Speaker 2: on both sides of the Atlantic, and I think Allegria,

964
00:47:25,040 --> 00:47:26,960
Speaker 2: you're quite right, we're coming to an in now. I

965
00:47:26,960 --> 00:47:29,440
Speaker 2: think to take us back to the success of the

966
00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:31,880
Speaker 2: labor government is going to be partly about how it

967
00:47:31,960 --> 00:47:37,480
Speaker 2: manages to narrow some of those gaps with the broader country.

968
00:47:37,520 --> 00:47:39,680
Speaker 2: Whatever we might be thinking in the city, and certainly

969
00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:41,719
Speaker 2: the result in November will have a lot to do

970
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:44,759
Speaker 2: with what those parts of America that we don't spend

971
00:47:44,880 --> 00:47:47,160
Speaker 2: very much time are thinking about the future.