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Speaker 1: Now here's a highlight from Coast to Coast AM on

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Speaker 1: iHeart Radio and welcome back to Coast to Coast George

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Speaker 1: nor with you, John, You with us as we talk

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Speaker 1: about the tense situation between China, the US, and Taiwan. John,

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Speaker 1: there are sixty two thousand US citizens in Taiwan. Most

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Speaker 1: of them have dual citizenships between the US and Taiwan.

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Speaker 1: Why does China care about one more person, albeit the

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Speaker 1: Speaker of the House going to Taiwan. Well, this is

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Speaker 1: the heart of the matter, is because China considers Taiwan

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Speaker 1: to be a province, and so they don't want to

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Speaker 1: see anyone, particularly American political leaders, visiting Taiwan giving a prominence,

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Speaker 1: maybe recognizing its independence, although American leaders have been trying

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Speaker 1: to be very careful since the time of Jimmy Carter

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Speaker 1: not to imply that Taiwan was actually a separate, independent country.

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Speaker 1: But they don't want anyone to anyone from the outside

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Speaker 1: to try to give Taiwan any kind of recognition that

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Speaker 1: it's nothing more than just a runaway province from the mainland.

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Speaker 1: And so that's why someone like Speaker they went, as

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Speaker 1: you said, there are other sixty four thousand Americans in

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Speaker 1: Taiwan are not a threat and don't bother the Chinese

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Speaker 1: as much as Nancy Pelosi or when President of Biden

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Speaker 1: says several times that he thinks of the United States

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Speaker 1: would defend Taiwan if we were attacked by China. We

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Speaker 1: have a de facto diplomatic mission in Taipei, the capital

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Speaker 1: of Taiwan, almost like an embassy, but not quite. I mean,

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Speaker 1: so we're there. Yeah, well, yeah, this is a thing.

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Speaker 1: This is a problem that came up when the United

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Speaker 1: States made the final push to win the Cold War.

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Speaker 1: We had recognized actually Taiwan and the Chang Kai Shek

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Speaker 1: government as a legitimate government of China, even after it

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Speaker 1: had lost in the Civil War. And then you remember

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Speaker 1: Richard Dixon. People said only Nixon could go to China,

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Speaker 1: and Nixon did go to China because Nixon and Kissinger

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Speaker 1: wanted to get China on our side against the Soviet Union,

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Speaker 1: which was a successful strategy, but the price was in

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Speaker 1: order to get the Chinese on our side, to recognize China,

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Speaker 1: we had to accept that Taiwan was not a real country.

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Speaker 1: But as you say, in a lot of ways, we do.

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Speaker 1: We have a diplomat mission, we sell Taiwan weapons. If

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Speaker 1: Taiwan were really just a province of China, what are

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Speaker 1: we doing selling them weapons? Is if China we're selling

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Speaker 1: Florida weapons. And I remember what opened that door up

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Speaker 1: between China and the United States Ping pong diplomacy, Remember

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Speaker 1: that unbelievable times? Well, is China seriously? I mean we've

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Speaker 1: heard all kinds of things that they could shoot down

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Speaker 1: Pelosi's plane And what kind of crazy talk is that? John, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's what China is going to do.

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Speaker 1: That would be I mean that would be basically an

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Speaker 1: active war to shoot down basically, you know, the number

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Speaker 1: three person in the line of succession to the American presidency,

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Speaker 1: the leader of our Congress. That's an assassination. Yes, I

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Speaker 1: think that's people just being alarmist, you know. I could

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Speaker 1: I could see maybe even people within the Biden administration

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Speaker 1: or the military leak that because they want to discourage

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Speaker 1: Pelosi from going. Unfortunately, I think that kind of talk

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Speaker 1: also is going to make it hard for Pelosi not

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Speaker 1: to go because she doesn't want to look like she

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Speaker 1: was going because of the Chinese government, or because leaks

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Speaker 1: from the bid administration. She's a Speaker of the House.

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Speaker 1: Why shouldn't you be able to go if she decides.

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Speaker 1: Is this her idea to go in the first place?

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Speaker 1: I think so, I mean, I think the I think

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Speaker 1: if the Biden administration would love it if she didn't go.

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Speaker 1: They don't want any more of a spotlight to be

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Speaker 1: put on Taiwan. I think they're very worried that China

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Speaker 1: might react at a negative way. Now, not shooting down

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Speaker 1: place he's plane, but they could start harassing Taiwan more.

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Speaker 1: They could even do something worse like interfering with air

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Speaker 1: traffic or even shipping blockade. Yeah, Taiwan's right off their coast.

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Speaker 1: We're the ones who are thousands and thousands of miles

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Speaker 1: away from Taiwan. China has a large and growing navy

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Speaker 1: that could try to blockade. As you mentioned the Cuban

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Speaker 1: missile crisis, right, they could try to put up a

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Speaker 1: blockcade Taiwan. We have seen how tough the Ukrainians have

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Speaker 1: fought the Russian soldiers. The number I hear is that

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Speaker 1: they're seventy five wounded or dead Russian soldiers already in

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Speaker 1: the Ukraine. Are the Taiwanese troops that good too. Well.

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Speaker 1: You know, the Ukrainians have surprised everybody except themselves, of course,

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Speaker 1: so they surprised not just the Russians, they surprised the

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Speaker 1: Biden administration and a lot of Western Europeans. I really

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Speaker 1: admire their fighting spirit and their ability, given that they

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Speaker 1: are such material disadvantage there. I think Taiwan is similarly

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Speaker 1: at a disadvantage. But there are a lot of questions

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Speaker 1: about just like there were questions about Ukraine. We don't

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Speaker 1: really know. There are questions about how well Taiwan's armed

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Speaker 1: forces would fight. They haven't had to fight a war

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Speaker 1: since they were treated across the Taiwan Straits after they

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Speaker 1: lost the Civil War, and so we don't know how

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Speaker 1: well the times of if you read reports and studies

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Speaker 1: to suggests that Taiwan is not ready for the kind

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Speaker 1: of war that you would have to fight. You know

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Speaker 1: that the that the Ukrainians are fighting in against Russia,

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Speaker 1: where you're fighting for every square mile, where you're fighting

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Speaker 1: in the cities, you're a fire urban warfare, and you

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Speaker 1: even fight back into retreat into the mountains. And Taiwan

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Speaker 1: is a mountainous island people, You know, Taiwan's a wealthy country.

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Speaker 1: They might be, they might not have that kind of

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Speaker 1: fighting spirit. Nobody knows. Also, Taiwan needs to really upgrade

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Speaker 1: its armed forces, not with the fanciest technological weapons. That

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Speaker 1: what they need to do, buy a lot of minds

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Speaker 1: and missiles. Because China, the hard thing for them was

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Speaker 1: they would have to launch one of the largest amphibious

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Speaker 1: operations in the history of mankind to get across that

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Speaker 1: straight with a large army extremely difficult. And the best

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Speaker 1: thing that the Chilanese could do would be actually to

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Speaker 1: rely on old fashioned weapons like lots of minds, like

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Speaker 1: lots of missiles, rather than buying the latest American jet fighters.

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Speaker 1: With the Chinese, how did they advance as quickly as

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Speaker 1: they did? I mean you remember back during World War Two?

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Speaker 1: I mean they were like sticks and stones and now

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Speaker 1: there as competitive as anybody. How'd they do it? Well,

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Speaker 1: there's a reason why a lot of their advanced jet fighters,

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Speaker 1: why their new aircraft carrier look a lot like American ones,

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Speaker 1: because they probably are. Yeah, no, no, they because they

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Speaker 1: have been engaged and this was true even at the

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Speaker 1: time in the Bush administration. They have engaged in what

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Speaker 1: one you know, one general called the largest theft of

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Speaker 1: technology and intellectual property in the history of mankind. They

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Speaker 1: have stolen a lot of our military secrets and use

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Speaker 1: them to construct their own, their own top of the

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Speaker 1: line aircraft and so on. Now, the thing is the

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Speaker 1: Chinese have not actually done that well when they've actually

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Speaker 1: had to fight. You know, they fought us to a

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Speaker 1: draw in the Korean War, but according to some estimates,

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Speaker 1: they suffered a million casualties. I mean, they've suffered a

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Speaker 1: million dead or wounded in the Korean War, where the

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Speaker 1: United States and even it was much much more, we

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Speaker 1: were below one hundred thousand. They had a terrible war

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Speaker 1: with Russia, and the sixties they had a terrible war

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Speaker 1: with Vietnam. They I mean, they actually have had a

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Speaker 1: track record of being pretty hostile more like to their neighbors.

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Speaker 1: But they have not done that well in those military conflicts.

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Speaker 1: They actually have tended to be like the Russians. They've

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Speaker 1: tried to use sort of massive you know, human wave

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Speaker 1: attacks is what we saw in the Korean War, and

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Speaker 1: so we don't know they have They've spent a lot

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Speaker 1: of money, they have upgraded their technology. They're competing with

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Speaker 1: us in cyber in space and a lot of the

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Speaker 1: new frontier, frontiers of where I wrote a book about

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Speaker 1: this called Striking Power, which you kindly mentioned, about high

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Speaker 1: technology and new weapons. But we don't know a lot

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Speaker 1: about the morale and fighting skill of the Chinese army.

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Speaker 1: John you. John's website, of course, is linked up at

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Speaker 1: Coast to coastam dot com. He's got several books. How

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Speaker 1: many books you got now? Three? Plus I just published

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Speaker 1: my tenth, so wow, I see you haven't been on

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Speaker 1: the show in five years. I think I got three

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Speaker 1: done in that five year period. Do you think conflict

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Speaker 1: with China is inevitable? You know that is the toughest question, George.

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Speaker 1: I like to think that just like the United States

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Speaker 1: and the Soviet you can even as as you mentioned,

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Speaker 1: you know, we were about the future for the next generation.

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Speaker 1: We worry about the tensions and the instability when you

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Speaker 1: look at it now, historians call the Cold War actually

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Speaker 1: the long piece. There was no great power war from

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Speaker 1: nineteen forty five to nineteen ninety two or nineteen nine.

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Speaker 1: Whenever you want to end the Cold War, hopefully the

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Speaker 1: United States and China, even if their rivals, even if

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Speaker 1: we're competitors, we're going to reach some kind of systems,

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Speaker 1: some kind of modus vivendies, some kind of understanding that

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Speaker 1: will prevent conflict. Because you know, the Chinese, China and

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Speaker 1: the United States are are the two most powerful countries

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Speaker 1: in the world. We have the largest economies. China's military

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Speaker 1: is growing fast that we come closer and closer to ours,

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Speaker 1: it would be a disaster for the United Station China

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Speaker 1: to actually go to war with both sides having large

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Speaker 1: nuclear arsenals. Hopefully we will be able to come to

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Speaker 1: an understanding about where our interests should not be allowed

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Speaker 1: to come and cause any kind of direct conflict, just

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Speaker 1: like happened with the Unit States in the Soviets. Do

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Speaker 1: you have any concern, John, that somebody be in Russia

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Speaker 1: China will use a nuke. I do I think you

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Speaker 1: pointed that out. I mean you said, I think quite regularly,

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Speaker 1: you know, in terms of nuclear war worries. You know,

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Speaker 1: this is maybe one of the worst times since the

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Speaker 1: Cuban Missile crisis. It's a different kind of concern though.

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Speaker 1: I think back with the Cuban missile crisis, the US

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Speaker 1: and the civilian almost did come to blows. Luckily, both

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Speaker 1: sides stepped back from the brink. The problem now is

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Speaker 1: not that The problem now is that more countries are

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Speaker 1: getting nuclear weapons and we don't seem to be able

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Speaker 1: to stop them. North Korea has nuclear weapons and as

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Speaker 1: one of the it is I think the worst regime

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Speaker 1: in the world, which you know, where basically one tenth

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Speaker 1: of the population terribly oppresses the other nine tenths of

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Speaker 1: the population, and you have basically think a very unstable

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Speaker 1: leader there's got a nuclear arsenal. And then as you

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Speaker 1: mentioned the Iranians, you know, sort of a revolutionary country

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Speaker 1: that really wants to upset the order of things, is

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Speaker 1: getting new clear opens. And then you have Russia and

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Speaker 1: China who also have a desire to change the world

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Speaker 1: and the rules that the United States built to them

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Speaker 1: to the world's great benefit, to Russian and China's benefit.

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Speaker 1: But those two countries have large nuclear arsenals and they

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Speaker 1: are you know the fancy terms revisionist powers. They want

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Speaker 1: to change the way the world is, they want to

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Speaker 1: change your rules, make themselves more powerful. You know, we're

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Speaker 1: going to have tension, and we're going to have right,

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Speaker 1: We're going to have friction with those countries. And if

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Speaker 1: it ever does come to a conflict. They're the more powers,

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Speaker 1: more nuclear weapons. Maybe there could be an accident, or

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Speaker 1: maybe somebody could act irrationally. I agree that it would

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Speaker 1: be terrible for the world, but the odds definitely seem

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Speaker 1: to be higher now than they were at the end

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Speaker 1: of the Cold War. I wonder where that doomsday clock

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Speaker 1: is pointing now, these stays John Yeah, the Bolton of

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Speaker 1: the American scientists. I haven't seen it lately, but if

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Speaker 1: they word doing the clock, it's probably now than it

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Speaker 1: was twenty years I think midnight than was twenty years ago.

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Speaker 1: What if Dancy Pelosi said to the Chinese government, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to go to Taiwan, I'm coming to

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Speaker 1: Beijing to spend a weekend. It's a great idea, it

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Speaker 1: really would be. Although you know they might test her

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Speaker 1: for COVID. You may never get out of the country. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's true. I'm a keeper tough situation. I don't know

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Speaker 1: what's going to happen. I cannot bet on this one,

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Speaker 1: can you. My prediction, it's hard to predict. My guests

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Speaker 1: would be that the Chinese are going to complain a lot,

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Speaker 1: They're going to make threats, but they, as you point out,

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Speaker 1: assassinating the speaker of the House, you know, trying to

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Speaker 1: militarily interfere with the trip is a serious step. I

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Speaker 1: don't think the Chinese will do it. I think their

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Speaker 1: long term strategy is and has been, let's keep growing,

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Speaker 1: let's keep growing our economy, let's keep adding to our military,

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Speaker 1: and if eventually we will just take our rightful position

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Speaker 1: where we don't have to fire a shot, well, eventually

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Speaker 1: get Taiwan just like we got Hong Kong. We don't

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Speaker 1: need to have a destructive war which is unpredictable, could

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Speaker 1: lead to the overthrow of the Chinese Communist Party and

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Speaker 1: president give Why risk all that when they think time

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Speaker 1: is on their side. Anyway, we saw a couple of

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Speaker 1: years ago the conflict in Hong Kong, where a lot

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Speaker 1: of people were very upset. What were the Chinese taking over?

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Speaker 1: Could that happen with the Taiwanese too, Maybe? Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: mean that's that's partially what the Chinese are thinking. I think,

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Speaker 1: as you've pointed out, they're looking at a lot of

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Speaker 1: the recent events that have happened in the world and

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Speaker 1: it's giving them more confidence. So they saw the failed

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Speaker 1: withdrawal in Afghanistan, they see a kind of lukewarm support

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Speaker 1: for Ukraine, and they saw basically a lack of reaction

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Speaker 1: about Hong Kong. Nobody sanctioned the Chinese economy over Hong

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Speaker 1: Kong is too large and important, right, No Chinese leaders

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Speaker 1: were sanctioned because of Hong Kong the way that we've

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Speaker 1: been sanctioning the Russians. And we certainly didn't send arms

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Speaker 1: or weapons to Hong Kong. So if you're Beijing, why

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Speaker 1: not see how far you can go with Taiwan. Maybe

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Speaker 1: a lot of what the units is saying is just bluster.

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Speaker 1: So that's actually one way Pelosi could help things. That's

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Speaker 1: one way Biden could help things. And this is a

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Speaker 1: lesson we get from the Cold War and the human

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Speaker 1: missile crisis, as you point out, is we have to

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Speaker 1: be very clear and mean what we say and say

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Speaker 1: what we mean, not be sort of ambiguous or vague,

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Speaker 1: because when there's unclarity that might encourage Beijing to take risks.

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Speaker 1: Listen to more Coast to Coast AM every weeknight at

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Speaker 1: one am Eastern and go to Coast to Coast am

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Speaker 1: dot com for more