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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: PODYA All Right, here we go fifteen twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 2: thirty thirty five, forty forty five, fifty and the Kicks

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Speaker 2: Black Comic Football World Stunners.

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Speaker 3: Oh my goodness, he stumble and bumble the latter turn

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Speaker 3: a tyr on the episode j lad A table off

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Speaker 3: the field the night, By God, it's not the size

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Speaker 3: of the dog in the fighting, it's the size of

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Speaker 3: the fight in all. What's up the general nation? Welcome

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Speaker 3: to the Big Nuts on Campus Podcast. This is the

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Speaker 3: Week six college football betting preview presented by DraftKings. I'm

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Speaker 3: stucky enjoining me as always my fellow pebous co host

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Speaker 3: Colin Wilson. A lot to get to today. We will

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Speaker 3: go through five Marquee games. We'll hit a bunch of

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Speaker 3: others in the Marquee game section, talks of injuries, there

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Speaker 3: will be plenty of trash, and we'll get to some

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Speaker 3: Friday night lights talk our favorite favorites, favorite underdogs, and

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Speaker 3: much more. Colin, I was happy to it was our

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Speaker 3: worst week on the agree board that we've ever had,

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Speaker 3: so its happy happy to a race last week. It

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Speaker 3: was one of those weeks where my strongest convictions were off.

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Speaker 3: So but in September that'll happen. You learn a lot

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Speaker 3: about teams when they don't play anyone and then they

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Speaker 3: finally step up and play somebody. You really get a

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Speaker 3: feel for who they are because you can trick a

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Speaker 3: lot of people with soft schedules. So I saw that

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Speaker 3: in a couple of games last week. But I'm ready

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Speaker 3: to move on to this week. I didn't love the

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Speaker 3: card at first, and it has really grown on me

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Speaker 3: as the week has gone on. Are you excited to

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Speaker 3: get into it?

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Speaker 2: I have the same feeling. It's like everybody. I think

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Speaker 2: last week, I was like that nothing can top this week.

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Speaker 2: This next week is gonna be a dread, and then

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Speaker 2: I start realizing, like, I think Cincinnati's for real. I

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Speaker 2: think Vanderbilt has a shot again. I think there's some

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Speaker 2: overlooking a couple of teams. Notre Dame Boise State is

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Speaker 2: a playoff knockout. I know this spreads huge, but it's

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Speaker 2: still a playoff knockout. We still have two service academies

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Speaker 2: going against each other. I think this is actually a

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Speaker 2: really good week of football. I think it's gonna be

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Speaker 2: a great data point.

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Speaker 3: It's always fun. I mean college football. Whenever you think

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Speaker 3: it's gonna be an underwhelming card, it always ends up surprising.

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Speaker 3: Like I'm looking forward to Miami at Florida State Texas

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Speaker 3: at Florida. There's so much intrigue there, like the napier storyline.

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Speaker 3: What is Lagway going to look like after the bye?

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Speaker 3: What is Arch gonna look like? They're both going up

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Speaker 3: against really good defenses. The total is down ten points,

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Speaker 3: so yeah, I'm really looking forward to this card. We'll

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Speaker 3: get in to all of it, but before we get started,

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Speaker 3: a couple quick reminders. If you use Twitter, make sure

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Speaker 3: you check out Playbook. You can use that playbook the

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Speaker 3: new betting bot from Action just can turn your screenshots

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Speaker 3: into a bet slip, or just reply hey playbook, create

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Speaker 3: this bet slip for me, or just tell it hey,

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Speaker 3: bets up. I want the Hey have playbook. I just

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Speaker 3: want this. It is so easy. Create the slip for you,

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Speaker 3: I'll take you right to your book and you don't

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Speaker 3: have to go searching whether it's player, props, parlay. So

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Speaker 3: check it out. I use it all the time. It's

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Speaker 3: very convenient. We'll also have a quick slip link in

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Speaker 3: the video and podcast description where you can find and

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Speaker 3: tail some of the bets we discussed in today's episode,

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Speaker 3: or you can visit Action network dot com slash bet

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Speaker 3: now also if you want to hear me ramble some

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Speaker 3: more if you're not already sick of me. I have

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Speaker 3: a couple other podcasts now that a new co host

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Speaker 3: of the Favorites podcast, which is returned with the new

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Speaker 3: lineup episodes Tuesday, Thursday, Sunday. I did my first solo

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Speaker 3: pod on Sunday. Also do some episodes with Kendri Middleton

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Speaker 3: and Brandon Kravitz Bets Stories, fun stuff that all centered

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Speaker 3: around the NFL, and then Action Network podcasts myself and

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Speaker 3: Chris Raybond previ the entire NFL slate. That episode comes

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Speaker 3: out on Wednesday. The Big Bets on Campus podcast is

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Speaker 3: sponsored by DraftKings and in partnership with DraftKings, we'd like

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Speaker 3: All right, let's get right in to our Marquey games

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Speaker 3: of the day. It's another fabulous weekend of college football.

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Speaker 2: Let's check out the Marquee matchups. We'll all end up

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Speaker 2: that ang for week six.

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Speaker 3: Let's start where we just talked, Texas Florida. So Texas

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Speaker 3: visiting Florida, Texas is anywhere from six and a half

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Speaker 3: to a seven point favor total has come way down

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Speaker 3: to forty two. Forty two and a half. I ended

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Speaker 3: up reluctantly, reluctantly playing Florida here I took the seven.

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Speaker 3: So when I look at these teams, here's here's my

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Speaker 3: thinking on this. Like, I don't show huge numbers, that

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Speaker 3: just show just a tiny bit of value in Florida.

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Speaker 3: Both these offenses have been ugly. Both of these defenses

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Speaker 3: have been a league. So why do I like Florida here? Well,

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Speaker 3: I think that there's a higher chance, there's a higher

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Speaker 3: probability that Lagway benefits more from the bye week than

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Speaker 3: Arch does.

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Speaker 2: Why.

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Speaker 3: Well, we know that we know for a fact that

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Speaker 3: Lagway was hurt in the offseason. We know for a

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Speaker 3: fact that he didn't get to work with his receivers,

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Speaker 3: and we've seen him produced at a high level against

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Speaker 3: SEC caliber defenses before, so we don't know if Arch

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Speaker 3: is hurt. He did get the work with his receivers,

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Speaker 3: and we haven't really seen him produced through the air.

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Speaker 3: So like why I can believe that Lagway is gonna

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Speaker 3: come up. Maybe he's healthier, maybe he gets more timing

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Speaker 3: down with his receivers, And it looks like Dallas Wilson's

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Speaker 3: gonna play. Dallas Wilson, five star freshman, had ten catches

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Speaker 3: for one hundred and ninety five yards and two touchdowns

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Speaker 3: in the spring game. And we've seen how good this

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Speaker 3: Florida defense has been. So there's a lot of upside

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Speaker 3: here for Florida that they know that they might look

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Speaker 3: more functional on offense. Texas is running more man. I

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Speaker 3: think that's good, the more middle of the field closed,

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Speaker 3: I think that's good for Lagway. With Wilson in the lineup,

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Speaker 3: they might actually be able to bring the deep pass back.

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Speaker 3: It's amazing. It's disappear from their offense. It was a

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Speaker 3: strength last year, and I just haven't seen it from

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Speaker 3: March to Trust ever, trust laying seven on the road here.

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Speaker 3: I mean this is a kid who was eleven to

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Speaker 3: twenty four at home against UTEP for one hundred and

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Speaker 3: thirty yards with a touchdown and a pick. This Florida

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Speaker 3: defense has been feisty against everyone. This is also an

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Speaker 3: enormous strength of schedule disparity. Texas strength of scuts around

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Speaker 3: one hundred and fifty in the nation. Florida's number two overall,

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Speaker 3: so at home in the swamp after the buye, I

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Speaker 3: don't expect Florida to quit. This might be their last Turrah.

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Speaker 3: If they don't win this game, it might be the

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Speaker 3: last Tarrah for old Billy Napier. They'll also have a

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Speaker 3: slight special team's edge. Turn my numbers and the total

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Speaker 3: is super low. Points should be at a premium for

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Speaker 3: what it's worth. Napier's twenty six and fourteen against the

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Speaker 3: spread as an underdog sixty five percent, covering by about

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Speaker 3: five points per game. Eight and four against the spread

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Speaker 3: when catching at least a touchdown against SEC teams really

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Speaker 3: should be nine and three. If Laguay didn't throw five

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Speaker 3: picks against LSU SOE. One final thing here is that

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Speaker 3: if you look at Texas's defensive numbers under the hood,

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Speaker 3: they all look elite, right, But they did face Ohio

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Speaker 3: State in the game or Ohios They didn't really try

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Speaker 3: to do much and it was Saying's first start, and

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Speaker 3: then since then they've played a bunch of clowns. But

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Speaker 3: their defense is supposed to be really good. It is elite,

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Speaker 3: but maybe there's a chance that it's a bit overrated

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Speaker 3: because of that and because of the lack of strength

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Speaker 3: of schedule. But if you look where's a weakness in

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Speaker 3: their defense, it's against twelve personnel. They have not been

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Speaker 3: good against twelve personnel. You're going to get a lot

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Speaker 3: of that from Florida. So I took the points here.

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Speaker 3: There's a lot of uncertainty with how these quarterbacks are

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Speaker 3: going to look and it could come down to who

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Speaker 3: makes fewer mistakes, which does worry me a bit about Blagway.

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Speaker 3: But I'm going to trust Florida in the spot at

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Speaker 3: home in the swamp. What do you see here?

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Speaker 2: Well, I make it sick. So I couldn't get on

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Speaker 2: the side. I was really interested in the total and

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Speaker 2: how it was dipping. I didn't know if that was

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Speaker 2: injury related. I didn't know if that was weather related.

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Speaker 2: And I really kind of wanted to sit back, and

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Speaker 2: I did my homework earlier this week and wrote it

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Speaker 2: up for Action Network. And you know what the defenses

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Speaker 2: have done to this point has really been amazing. I

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Speaker 2: don't believe in Arch. I mean, I get it. You

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Speaker 2: had what seven red zone trips against Sam Houston, five touchdowns,

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Speaker 2: two field goals, Like is that supposed to convince me

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Speaker 2: that this eighty fourth overall and finishing drives and this

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Speaker 2: consistent red zone issue that Steve Sarkiz that all of

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Speaker 2: a sudden it's going to be fixed because you had

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Speaker 2: a game against Phil Longo.

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Speaker 3: I mean not only that, even outside the twenty yards

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Speaker 3: are struggling to move the ball like that and everything

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Speaker 3: looks off.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, everything looks off. The strength of the Longhorns is

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Speaker 2: absolutely what Kodakowski's doing with the defense in the three

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Speaker 2: three five, top fifteen overall success rate, best defense in

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Speaker 2: the nation when it comes to limiting quality drives and

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Speaker 2: rush explosives. I just don't expect much from Florida here

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Speaker 2: on the ground. We'll see, you know what Dallas's gonna do.

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Speaker 2: But at the same time, it's you know, it's one

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Speaker 2: of those things where I think Florida needs to kind

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Speaker 2: of find an identity themselves. The last thing I'll mentioned

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Speaker 2: about the Texas d is that there's seventh and hard

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Speaker 2: stops and that is a PFF stat that says a

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Speaker 2: complete failure by the offense. If you can tackle in

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Speaker 2: space in the second level, you get a stop. I

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Speaker 2: think it's really important because I'm not sure Florida's gonna

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Speaker 2: be able to create any explosives unless we see something

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Speaker 2: we haven't seen before from a five star freshman. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: bad Way his numbers in that last game against Miami,

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Speaker 2: where I get it. He didn't have a turnover worthy

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Speaker 2: play and that's what we're looking for. But his average

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Speaker 2: depth of target was three point seven yards. It's like

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Speaker 2: he did to create a big time throw. They Billy

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Speaker 2: Nabor didn't allow him to do a thing to screw up.

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Speaker 2: When you're throwing for three point seven yards, it's tough

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Speaker 2: to screw up. And I think going up against Miami,

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Speaker 2: maybe it was more of those I need Lagway to

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Speaker 2: have a clean mental health billing going into the bye

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Speaker 2: week than anything else. But you know, in passing downs

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Speaker 2: against Miami two point seven yards per play they went

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Speaker 2: twelve to twenty fwo overall pass I just I know

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Speaker 2: it was five interceptions. This is a against LSU. This

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Speaker 2: was a step up not to commit a turnover worthy

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Speaker 2: play against Miami. But at the same time, I just

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Speaker 2: don't see this offense doing anything. They're gonna have to

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Speaker 2: need every single yard after first contact from Jaden Ball,

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Speaker 2: who right now is four yards after first contact. They're

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Speaker 2: gonna need all of that again.

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Speaker 3: But also they just hit a couple explosives to Dallas Wilson,

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Speaker 3: Like you don't need much in this game.

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Speaker 2: To cover with a total one and a half. I'm

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Speaker 2: not disagreeing with you. I just think it's gonna come late.

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Speaker 2: And the reason I think it's gonna come late. And

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Speaker 2: by the way, the Gators defense. Another thing that I

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Speaker 2: love about their stat box. Eighteen possessions they've allowed to

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Speaker 2: cross the forty yard line. Only ten of those have

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Speaker 2: made it into the red zone.

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Speaker 3: Like Donova gets the second hardest schedule in the country.

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Speaker 2: And think about it, Like most teams get stiff in

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Speaker 2: the red zone, they get stiff after the forty Like

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Speaker 2: only half of those drives across the forty even made

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Speaker 2: it to the twenty.

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Speaker 3: You're doing it not getting any pressure because that's the

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Speaker 3: one weakness of their defense.

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Speaker 2: Here's the one thing that I bet. I wrote it

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Speaker 2: up on action. Just blow it for everybody. I took

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Speaker 2: a first quarter under, I took a first half under.

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Speaker 2: These defenses are so elite. Texas hasn't allowed anyone to

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Speaker 2: score on them in the first quarter, and they did

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Speaker 2: play Ohio State. But Florida's only given up a TD

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Speaker 2: in the first quarter period. That's it, seven points, one

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Speaker 2: TD and it was given up to Miami. They played LSU,

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Speaker 2: they played South Florida, Like that's it. These teams are

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Speaker 2: so good in the scripted properce mimid Long Island.

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Speaker 3: Who has a road FBS win this year against Eastern

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Speaker 3: Michigan the Sharks.

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Speaker 2: So listen. Combined, these teams have given up seven points

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Speaker 2: in the first quarter. I played under seven and a

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Speaker 2: half in the first quarter. I played under twenty one

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Speaker 2: and a half in the first half. That's down to

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Speaker 2: twenty and a half. I think what's interesting about this

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Speaker 2: to say stuff that I think there's gonna be scoring

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Speaker 2: in the second half. That first half total is still

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Speaker 2: twenty and a half, and the overall game total has

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Speaker 2: trickled from like what forty and a half up to

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Speaker 2: forty two forty two and a half. So I think

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Speaker 2: it's a slow starting game. And then I think you're right.

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Speaker 2: I think Florida figures a couple things out in the

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Speaker 2: second half, and maybe Sark starts, maybe Sark finds the

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Speaker 2: red zone here and find some play calling down by

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Speaker 2: the twenty. But I like the first half under. I

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Speaker 2: love the first quarter under all right.

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Speaker 3: I'm rolling with the Gators, chomp chomp plus need seven

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Speaker 3: here though, all right, there's some cheap sevens out there

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Speaker 3: right now, too. Agree.

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Speaker 2: I think it's going down.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it'll close lower than seven. All right,

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Speaker 3: I'd say in the State of Florida, Miami at Florida State,

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Speaker 3: Florida State is a four and a half point home

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Speaker 3: underdog total fifty four and a half. Over. Took some

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Speaker 3: money this morning. This is another game I bet. I

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Speaker 3: bet the dog. I took the four and a half.

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Speaker 3: I don't show a huge edge number. I mean, I'm

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Speaker 3: making it a field goal. So and look, I Miami

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Speaker 3: is the fifth best team in the country. Is there

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Speaker 3: a chance we're overrating Miami. It's possible, right. One thing

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Speaker 3: we're not overrating is they're playing the trenches.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, you go, let me throw this stat.

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Speaker 2: In all the mobile quarterbacks they've faced, they've given up

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Speaker 2: ten net rushing yards to those mobile quarterbacks. So they

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Speaker 2: are owning the trench.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. The offensive line one of the best in the country.

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Speaker 3: Their defensive line is two of the best defensive ends

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Speaker 3: with Messador and Bain. But I have in the top

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Speaker 3: five team in the country. I downgraded Florida State slightly

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Speaker 3: after last week, even though they should have won that game.

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Speaker 3: What do they have like sixty seventy percent post game

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Speaker 3: win probability? But it been caught peeking ahead a little bit.

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Speaker 3: But I only have them as a field goal favorite here.

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Speaker 3: And this is their first road game of the year, yep.

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Speaker 3: And look, they have looked impressive. Miami has looked impressive,

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Speaker 3: but even like when I just for opponent, their offense

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Speaker 3: doesn't look amazing amazing, So you know, for like a

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Speaker 3: top five team. And they did get to play CJ.

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Speaker 3: Carr at home in his first ever road start. They

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Speaker 3: played South Florida one and probably the worst situational spot

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Speaker 3: of the entire season when they just had nothing left

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Speaker 3: at their two ranks, so like it was broken.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean USF beat Florida and for them as

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Speaker 2: a program was so big, they didn't care about going

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Speaker 2: down to play Miami.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and they were exhausted. They played They beat Boise

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Speaker 3: before then in Miami was coming off of a bye.

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Speaker 3: So they've had some breaks in the schedule with when

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Speaker 3: they played teams that might have that might be inflating

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Speaker 3: their actual power rating number a bit. But I have

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Speaker 3: them in top five. But I still show value in

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Speaker 3: Florida State. And this is Beck's first road game with Miami.

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Speaker 3: You want to look at Beck's roads splits from last year.

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Speaker 3: Last year at Georgia, beckuck home was at twenty five

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Speaker 3: touchdowns and five interceptions. On the road, his completion percentage

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Speaker 3: dropped by ten percent. He had a three to seven

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Speaker 3: touchdown to interception ratio and a sack rate that more

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Speaker 3: than double. He looked rough on the road. So maybe

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Speaker 3: this offense does doesn't look as smooth in Tallahassee in

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Speaker 3: front of a raucous crowd. I think that with you know,

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Speaker 3: with these ends, these menaces on the end and Baine

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Speaker 3: and mesdor like having this misdirection and this miles on

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Speaker 3: offense can actually work in Florida State's favor. I think

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Speaker 3: they can move the ball here. So this is mainly

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Speaker 3: a numbers play in addition to Mario. Mario's going to

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Speaker 3: mess up one of these games, and I think it

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Speaker 3: might be this one. For what it's worth. As a

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Speaker 3: road favorite of at least a field goal against Power

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Speaker 3: four teams, Mario sixteen and twenty six against the spread

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Speaker 3: thirty eight percent, failing to cover by about four points

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Speaker 3: per game on average. He's four and twelve against the

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Speaker 3: spread in league games as a road favorite in the ACC,

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Speaker 3: failing to cover by nine points per game twenty nine

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Speaker 3: percent against the spread. Meanwhile, Norvelle seven and one against

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Speaker 3: the spread eighty seven and a half percent, is a

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Speaker 3: home dog against ranked teams, covering by about nine points

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Speaker 3: per game, literally the complete opposite of Mario. He's won

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Speaker 3: four of those eight outright. The only one he didn't

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Speaker 3: cover was that flukey loss at Clemson. Oh my god,

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Speaker 3: I'm still pissed about that bet in again that they

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Speaker 3: should have won. He's been nails as a dog big.

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Speaker 3: I think just in game decision making edge to Florida

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Speaker 3: State here, so I took the four and a half.

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Speaker 3: I think Thenoles gonna have a really, really good shot

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Speaker 3: of pulling off this upset. I think this goes right

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Speaker 3: down to the wire. I'm still not sold on Miami's

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Speaker 3: kicker either. Davis hasn't missed yet, but I'm still not sold.

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Speaker 3: What are you seeing here?

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Speaker 2: He hasn't missed, but I'm not sold.

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Speaker 3: I mean he's like four or four.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, crazy Mario is in the top twenty in middle eight.

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Speaker 2: I didn't expect that I made the game four, so

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Speaker 2: I wasn't able to get in on the side this week.

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Speaker 2: But I wanted Florida State the entire time. I just

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Speaker 2: thought we might get a little bit better number after

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Speaker 2: what happened against Virginia. And I think the Virginia game

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Speaker 2: is a pause for concern if you want to take

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Speaker 2: on the Seminoles. But you know this, I think offensively time, like.

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Speaker 3: Florida State is a team that dominated out at home. Still, yeah,

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Speaker 3: Alabama has looked pretty good since, like, so we have

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Speaker 3: to give them credit for that win, like, and that

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Speaker 3: was at home and they looked great and we had I.

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Speaker 2: Think it was a great effort issue on Alabama's part.

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Speaker 2: I did a complete effort issue.

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Speaker 3: But let's smoke get a lot of credit. They dominated

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Speaker 3: that game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, so I think there's gonna be this is

359
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Speaker 2: a tougher game. I mean, this is the most disciplined

360
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Speaker 2: offense in the Crystal Ball era. That's what I'm looking

361
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Speaker 2: forward to seeing. You're gonna put this Miami team on

362
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Speaker 2: the road for the first time. Right now, there's sixth

363
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Speaker 2: and Havoc allowed. I can't remember Miami team that's been

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Speaker 2: this safe on offense, especially with cam Ward under center.

365
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Speaker 2: Right now we're sixth and Havoc allowed, their top twenty

366
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Speaker 2: and success rate finishing drives passway. I could just go

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Speaker 2: on and on about how great this offense has been,

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Speaker 2: and I think the defense has been even better. I mean,

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Speaker 2: Corey Heatherman is a higher has just been fantastic against

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Speaker 2: mobile quarterbacks. Like I said before, I think it's worth

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Speaker 2: noticing the reason I want to play Florida State and

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Speaker 2: I haven't, and the reason I'm playing the over grading

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Speaker 2: is falling for Miami week after week. I mentioned it

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Speaker 2: on the last pod that there were some concerns in

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Speaker 2: the USF box score that maybe the tackling wasn't as

376
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Speaker 2: good as we thought. Against Notre Dame, they missed seven tackles.

377
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Speaker 2: That's really good, and then they missed over a dozen

378
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Speaker 2: against USF. In the last two games against USF and Florida,

379
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Speaker 2: they've missed thirty two tackles. The tackling is going the

380
00:18:21,280 --> 00:18:23,960
Speaker 2: wrong way for Miami right now. And if Florida State

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Speaker 2: is able to get into the back half of that secondary,

382
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Speaker 2: get a round Ruben Bay and get around those edges,

383
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Speaker 2: then it could be a problem now for Florida State.

384
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Speaker 2: Their offensive line is ranked number one right now in lineyards.

385
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Speaker 2: I mean, this is going to be a huge battle

386
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Speaker 2: in the trench. Tommy Caslona's problem him and Gavin Sauchek.

387
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Speaker 2: The problem is they run inside zone and Miami's just

388
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Speaker 2: putting up elite numbers against inside zone sixty two percent

389
00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:46,840
Speaker 2: success rate and defending it. So you think Castalanis is

390
00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:48,440
Speaker 2: going to have to go to the air. So I

391
00:18:48,560 --> 00:18:50,720
Speaker 2: went as deep as to look as what Miami usually

392
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Speaker 2: runs with their nickel defense. What do they run cover three?

393
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Speaker 2: What is Tommy caslanis absolutely destroyed cover three. I went

394
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Speaker 2: to this year's stats, I went to last year fifty

395
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Speaker 2: eight percent success rate against cover three with a twenty

396
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Speaker 2: five percent explosive play rate. He likes facing cover three.

397
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Speaker 2: So if you look at the fact that Beck has

398
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Speaker 2: dominated quarters coverage, which is what FSU plays, Caslanos has

399
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:15,639
Speaker 2: dominated cover three, which is what Miami plays. And you

400
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Speaker 2: throw in a growing mistackle rate by Miami and the

401
00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:20,919
Speaker 2: fact that the FSU defensive line got thrown around by

402
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Speaker 2: Virginia last week. I took over immediately at the beginning

403
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Speaker 2: of this week. I want to get in with you

404
00:19:25,440 --> 00:19:30,440
Speaker 2: on Florida State. I probably will because I'm on the border. Now. Yeah,

405
00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:32,159
Speaker 2: let's put it on the board because I don't think fours.

406
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Speaker 2: I don't think four is going to be there when

407
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:34,160
Speaker 2: this closes.

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00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:37,440
Speaker 3: I think I think it closes three and a half four.

409
00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:40,520
Speaker 3: All right, FSQ on the board. Let's head back to

410
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Speaker 3: the SEC. Oh baby, you got a good one between

411
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Speaker 3: Vanderbilt and Alabama and Tuscaloosa. Alabama ten and a half

412
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Speaker 3: point favorite total sitting around fifty five.

413
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Speaker 2: You can't put this game in a spreadsheet.

414
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Speaker 3: Yeah, this game. I mean, look, there's so many angles

415
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Speaker 3: to attack here. Alabama with revenge from last year, they're

416
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Speaker 3: coming off the Georgia game. Just like last year, they

417
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Speaker 3: came out the Georgia game and then lost at Vanderbilt

418
00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:05,639
Speaker 3: as twenty three and a half point favorites. That was

419
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Speaker 3: at Vanderbilt. Now they're only likeing ten and a half

420
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Speaker 3: at home Vanderbilt.

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Speaker 2: Johnny and met our boy Johnny on the sidelines for Vanderbilt.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's I can't wait for this game Pavia as

423
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Speaker 3: an underdog, like, I won't bet Alabama here, I won't

424
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Speaker 3: lay ten and a half against Pabby. Pabby is sixteen

425
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Speaker 3: and four against the spread, with twelve straight up wins.

426
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Speaker 3: At Vandy, He's six and zero against the spread as

427
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Speaker 3: a road underdog, he's won four of those six again

428
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Speaker 3: against SEC teams, four of those six outright. Then you

429
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Speaker 3: have Debor his teams who have struggled consistently, and this

430
00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,240
Speaker 3: goes back to the saving days with mobile quarterbacks. You

431
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Speaker 3: look at all the losses they've had, all mobile quarterbacks,

432
00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:46,960
Speaker 3: all of these non traditional offenses. Well that's what Vandy runs.

433
00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:50,360
Speaker 3: Dbor is, a double digit underdog, has lost four times outright,

434
00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:53,520
Speaker 3: that's the same number of times that Saban did it

435
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:58,399
Speaker 3: throughout his entire career in Tuscaloosa. He is one in

436
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:00,920
Speaker 3: four against the spread as a double day favored away

437
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 3: from home, though, but he is five and two against

438
00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:06,639
Speaker 3: the spread as a double digit favorite at home. A

439
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:08,800
Speaker 3: lot of Alabama's issues have come on the road in

440
00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:12,760
Speaker 3: recent seasons. I assume that Bama will be focused here.

441
00:21:12,800 --> 00:21:15,680
Speaker 3: They want blood from last year. But is there some

442
00:21:15,920 --> 00:21:18,879
Speaker 3: sort of mental letdown after the physical letdown at the

443
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:22,159
Speaker 3: Georgia game. There's so much to break down. If I

444
00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:24,879
Speaker 3: adjusted for opponent, I have Vandy's offense is like one

445
00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,320
Speaker 3: of the five best in the country. Their offense has

446
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:31,760
Speaker 3: been unbelievable. Now, they haven't played the best competition, but

447
00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:34,120
Speaker 3: I'm adjusting for that, and it's through the roofs.

448
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:36,560
Speaker 2: So how are you thirty one seconds per play in

449
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:37,840
Speaker 2: scoring over fifty points?

450
00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:42,120
Speaker 3: It's amazing, So I would lead. So, look, Banna can't

451
00:21:42,160 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 3: run the ball. It's a problem. They can't run the

452
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:50,160
Speaker 3: ball against anyone, and that's they've been horrific in that aspect.

453
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:52,879
Speaker 3: Vandy's rundy is much better than their past day. So

454
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:54,960
Speaker 3: I think Alabama is going to come out here and

455
00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:57,400
Speaker 3: attack through the air. I think they should have success

456
00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:01,440
Speaker 3: doing that, and I think Vandy can have success against

457
00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 3: this Alabama defense. Like I still maintained that the Alabama

458
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:08,640
Speaker 3: corners are overrated. I know everyone loves them. They're gonna

459
00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:11,560
Speaker 3: be without a key linebacker. We saw Georgia run all

460
00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 3: over Alabama. Alabamas run defense looks a little vulnerable. They

461
00:22:15,040 --> 00:22:19,960
Speaker 3: have struggled with these these mobile quarterbacks and non traditional offenses.

462
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,920
Speaker 3: So I think Vandys can put up points. Now will

463
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:29,080
Speaker 3: Vandy just go super even slower and like more run

464
00:22:29,160 --> 00:22:32,800
Speaker 3: heavy to just shorten the game? That's my one concern

465
00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:35,040
Speaker 3: about the total, because I definitely lean over, like I

466
00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 3: think that's gonna get his points. I think this Vandy

467
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:41,400
Speaker 3: offense is real. Sadly, I make the game ten point five.

468
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,680
Speaker 3: So like I'm right ha on market here. I was

469
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:50,159
Speaker 3: shocked just with so many factors, Like I thought that

470
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:54,000
Speaker 3: I might have value in this game. I think it's

471
00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 3: gonna be a great live betting game. I might take

472
00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 3: Vandy pre Like, here's the thing, if the Alabama wins

473
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 3: the top, I mean, if Alven gets the ball first,

474
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 3: I think they're going to go down and score. The

475
00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:09,199
Speaker 3: war is so good early in these games. So then

476
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 3: they go up seven to nothing, yep, and then I

477
00:23:11,560 --> 00:23:15,000
Speaker 3: can get a better number with Vandy, but I also

478
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 3: trust this bandy staff who's so good in the scripted

479
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:22,320
Speaker 3: portion that if Vandy gets the kick then and go,

480
00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 3: I think they might go down and score.

481
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:25,639
Speaker 2: So I don't know.

482
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 3: I might play this live. I think Vanderbilt has a shot,

483
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:31,879
Speaker 3: but I do expect them going to be buttoned up.

484
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 3: I do expect them to move the ball through the air.

485
00:23:33,920 --> 00:23:34,880
Speaker 3: I can't wait for this game.

486
00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:38,399
Speaker 2: What are you saying, Yeah, Ty Simpson, clean windows, we

487
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:40,879
Speaker 2: do like that. I think, by the way, I just

488
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:42,399
Speaker 2: put it in the apple you were talking about. I

489
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:44,159
Speaker 2: love the over in this game too. Are projecting a

490
00:23:44,359 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 2: total at fifty nine and a half, so that's above

491
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:49,159
Speaker 2: the key of fifty five. There are a couple of

492
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 2: fifty fives out there right now DraftKings fifty five and

493
00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 2: a half, but you can buy it for ten cents

494
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:58,239
Speaker 2: back down to the key of fifty five. I think

495
00:23:58,280 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 2: what you have to do is you have to ask yourself,

496
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 2: how do Anderbilt win this game? Last year? Ninety hidden

497
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,399
Speaker 2: yards that boosted their average starting field position to the

498
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 2: thirty one.

499
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 3: Also controlled the ball the entire game.

500
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:13,399
Speaker 2: Multiple methodical drives limited Alabama to none. Alabama had two

501
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 2: turnovers that included a Jalen Milroe interception. Alabama was stuffed

502
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,440
Speaker 2: on fifty percent of their nineteen carries Alabama was had.

503
00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:23,959
Speaker 2: And this is the whole thing with the yards per play, right,

504
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 2: I mean, usually yards per play is a big factor

505
00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:29,719
Speaker 2: in postgame win expectancy. Alabama eight point eight yards per

506
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:34,760
Speaker 2: play to Vandy's what was it five point six And

507
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 2: that's why I said, you can't put this game in

508
00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,200
Speaker 2: a spreadsheet. You just can't line these numbers up and

509
00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:40,479
Speaker 2: say automatically that Alabama's going to whip them, because think

510
00:24:40,480 --> 00:24:44,440
Speaker 2: you're absolutely right. Vandy, with Diego Pavia and Cedric Alexander

511
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 2: run all men and inside zone. Bama defensively has been

512
00:24:49,200 --> 00:24:52,359
Speaker 2: horrible and dominated by inside zone so far this year

513
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,160
Speaker 2: forty one percent success rate. They couldn't defend it against Georgia.

514
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,679
Speaker 2: They haven't been able to defend it all year. Bama's

515
00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 2: strength is against outside zone and power concepts. Bandy doesn't

516
00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 2: run outside zone. It is all Alexander and Diego up

517
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,119
Speaker 2: the middle and inside zone, and that is a huge

518
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:12,439
Speaker 2: problem for Alabama's defense. So, you know, Alabama. I think

519
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 2: the other thing too, is like the red zone numbers

520
00:25:13,960 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 2: are kind of skewed. They have the least amount of

521
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 2: red zone attempts by opponents, like, well, it's close, it's

522
00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 2: like a couple people lower than them. But they've only

523
00:25:22,840 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 2: had six the entire year, and of those six red

524
00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 2: zone trips by their opponents, five have been touchdowns. That's

525
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:35,439
Speaker 2: not good. So I think Alabama's completely vulnerable. I think

526
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:38,760
Speaker 2: the fact that Diego and Cedric run this massive amount

527
00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 2: of inside zone and BAMA has not been able to

528
00:25:40,480 --> 00:25:42,680
Speaker 2: defend that against FSU. They were not able to defend

529
00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 2: that against Georgia. I think Alabama's in trouble. So you know,

530
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,320
Speaker 2: but it's one of those things where the spreadsheet spits out,

531
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,880
Speaker 2: Oh the numbers should be thirteen and a half? Can

532
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,639
Speaker 2: I take ten and a half like I should? This

533
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 2: is the same problem I had last year and then

534
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:00,840
Speaker 2: hidden yards, special teams, I thought of drives. You just

535
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 2: you can't put this game in a spreadsheet.

536
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:04,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I make a ten and a half

537
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 3: the vibe, say bandy, But I might. I might have

538
00:26:07,560 --> 00:26:09,080
Speaker 3: a little piece of pre game and then wait to

539
00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,879
Speaker 3: trade this live like because of Vandy. If I get

540
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 3: if Alabma gets, the ball goes down scores, I'm gonna

541
00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,120
Speaker 3: bet Vandy live Okay, but Andy gets the ball first,

542
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:19,160
Speaker 3: goes down and score. I'm probably gonna bet Alabama.

543
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:22,639
Speaker 2: Love what's our? What's our? Remember our stat? Right? Kaylin

544
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 2: de Moore has won every first quarter in every game

545
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 2: as an Alabama coach except for one team. So I'm

546
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:34,040
Speaker 2: a little scared to wait on our Alabama uh first quarter?

547
00:26:34,080 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 2: Bet you know on this one?

548
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't. I don't mind. You're over for sure.

549
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 3: That's the way I have. It's over nothing. Let's talk.

550
00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:44,560
Speaker 3: Let's head to the Big twelve Cincinnati off of a

551
00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 3: big win against Kansas, small home favorite against Iowa State.

552
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 3: I love since the here I played, since the one

553
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:55,439
Speaker 3: of the first bets I.

554
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 2: Made this week, see I took team total over.

555
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:03,760
Speaker 3: I could see that. So basically, so when you look

556
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 3: at Iowa State, they had an impressive win over Arizona

557
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 3: last week, but it was just a lot of past explosives,

558
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:14,680
Speaker 3: Like I'm not sure how you know how consistent of

559
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 3: a form of offense that can be for this team

560
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 3: that lost a lot of talent at the wide receiver position.

561
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:25,239
Speaker 3: Although the since the defense, their pass defense isn't great, right,

562
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 3: but I don't think it's gonna have much success running

563
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,679
Speaker 3: the ball. And by the way, Dante corleone future pro.

564
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:31,880
Speaker 3: I believe he will be back this week. Their best

565
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 3: defensive lineman this since the offense is on fire, I mean,

566
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:38,600
Speaker 3: no matter how you slice it, this has been a

567
00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:43,040
Speaker 3: top twenty offense this season. Their new wide receiver room

568
00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 3: is really coming into form. Brandon Soersby is playing unbelievable football,

569
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 3: and he's gonna go against an Iowa State defense that

570
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,440
Speaker 3: will be without its two all big twelve corners that

571
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:59,159
Speaker 3: they lost for the year to ACL injuries, which just

572
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:03,440
Speaker 3: massive loss. And John Says Williams and Jeremiah Cooper Dominic

573
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:07,120
Speaker 3: Orange their future pro on the interior defensive line. He's

574
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 3: gonna play, but he's banged up and that's massive. Like

575
00:28:09,800 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 3: he commands all the attention. And this is an Iowa

576
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 3: State team that gets no pressure among all Power four teams.

577
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 3: The only team to get less pressure or North Carolina

578
00:28:20,600 --> 00:28:23,959
Speaker 3: and UCLA might win a combined three games this year.

579
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:27,360
Speaker 3: So I wo was State's not going to any pressure since.

580
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 2: He's betting both North Carolina Ucla this week. We'll save

581
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:31,200
Speaker 2: that for the rest of God.

582
00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 3: We'll save that for trash. So I would since he

583
00:28:36,600 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 3: has can have can be a bit vulner about their

584
00:28:38,680 --> 00:28:42,000
Speaker 3: tackle positions at times, but I always State's not going

585
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 3: to exploit that. What Iowa State has been super reliant

586
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:50,080
Speaker 3: on is sticky coverage on the back end, disciplined in there.

587
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 3: You know three three, five stack, Well, now they're gonna

588
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 3: be without too all big twelve corners. I think they're

589
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:59,719
Speaker 3: going to see the effects of that, and I think

590
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 3: since he'll be able to move the ball here. Additionally,

591
00:29:03,080 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 3: the sincey defensive coordinator came from Iowa State. Yep, he

592
00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 3: was there for seven years. Linebacker coach, defensive coach. They

593
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 3: run very similar defense sowarers Bey gets to practice against it.

594
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 3: There's no surprise. A lot of times Iowa State has

595
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 3: an advantage with how they run their d they catch

596
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 3: teams off guard. That's not going to be the case

597
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 3: here now. Iowa State, well know, you know on the

598
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:28,680
Speaker 3: flip side, will know what since he's running. But I

599
00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 3: trust the since the offense and their weapons more than

600
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:35,960
Speaker 3: Iowa State's offense right now. And it's worth noting that

601
00:29:37,840 --> 00:29:39,719
Speaker 3: I would hit his kicker. Issues didn't matter last week

602
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:42,920
Speaker 3: because they blew out Arizona. But their kicker and their

603
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 3: kickoff specials are out, so that could come to rear

604
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 3: its ugly head in a close game. There's also some

605
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 3: late down regression that could work in Sincy's favor here.

606
00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:56,520
Speaker 3: They're third nationally and early downs EPA, but they're only

607
00:29:56,600 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 3: thirty eight percent on third downs. Well, Iowa State much

608
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:04,680
Speaker 3: worse early down offense. They're converting fifty percent of the

609
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:06,959
Speaker 3: third downs. They're also five or five on fourth downs

610
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 3: and their opponents are only four or twelve. So they've

611
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 3: been pretty fortunate in a lot of late down stuff.

612
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:16,959
Speaker 3: And look, I know Matt Campbell's been great as a dog.

613
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:19,360
Speaker 3: He's twenty seven and fifteen against the spread and league play,

614
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 3: but he's just three and seven as a dog as

615
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 3: a short underdog when the spread is three or less.

616
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:27,800
Speaker 3: For what it's worth, that special teams issue in the

617
00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 3: close game could override sadderfield struggles there. But I think

618
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 3: this since the offense is going to move the ball

619
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:36,400
Speaker 3: and I think they're going to get it done at

620
00:30:36,440 --> 00:30:40,000
Speaker 3: home and upset Iowa State. Keep in mind, every Iowa

621
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 3: State win has aged worse, you know, starting with Kansas State,

622
00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 3: who was not the team we thought South Dakota way down,

623
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 3: way worse than SCS. People thought, you know, we'll see

624
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:58,480
Speaker 3: what happens with Arizona, who hasn't played anyone yet. Iowa, Okay,

625
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 3: it's fair, but I mean they won that game by

626
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:02,640
Speaker 3: three at home. It's not like I always been world beaters.

627
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 3: So and then who else did they beat? Oh, Arkansas State,

628
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 3: who they arguably should have lost to on the road.

629
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 3: That's their only road game. Arkansas State is getting drilled

630
00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 3: every week in the Sunbelt, like every like, this resume

631
00:31:15,400 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 3: is a lot there's a lot of smoke and mirrors.

632
00:31:17,000 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 3: I have a lot of respect for Campbell, a lot

633
00:31:18,880 --> 00:31:20,600
Speaker 3: of respect for Roco Back. It's not going to make

634
00:31:20,640 --> 00:31:21,760
Speaker 3: this easy. But I like Cincy.

635
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 2: I like Cincy two. I struggled with my bet this

636
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 2: week when I started doing some box score diving, and

637
00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 2: so Iowa stayed crushed Arizona and the offense was absolutely electric.

638
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 2: But when you go and look and I'm not just

639
00:31:36,080 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 2: saying read the box score, but go and look at

640
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 2: what Iowa State did. And I kind of think that

641
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 2: Matt Campbell put this crap on tape because he knew

642
00:31:43,160 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 2: he was facing Tyson Vade this week. He knew he

643
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 2: was facing his old defensive coordinator, So we put things

644
00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 2: on tape, like a direct snap to the tight end

645
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 2: on a two point conversion. Benjamin Brahmer got handed off

646
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 2: the ball to the six foot seven tight end and

647
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 2: threw a forty five yard TD pass. And then both

648
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 2: Campbell and and Benjamin Brahmer come out in the interview

649
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:04,080
Speaker 2: later and say, oh, yeah, that wasn't even my first read.

650
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:07,200
Speaker 2: Like the tight end is throwing a forty five yard

651
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 2: pass the week before you're facing your old defensive coordinator,

652
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:13,640
Speaker 2: philp So I'm sure Cincinnati's watching that tape like crazy

653
00:32:13,720 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 2: trying to figure out what this offense is going to do.

654
00:32:15,600 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 2: But it's same old Iowa State offense. Sixty one percent

655
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 2: of offensive snaps have been in twelve, thirteen percent have

656
00:32:21,280 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 2: been in thirteen. Personnel. Hell, they've ran six percent of

657
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 2: plays in fourteen. This is Iowa State, to a t,

658
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 2: what they've always wanted to be. And then I kind

659
00:32:29,320 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 2: of soured on Cincinnati because they had a twenty four

660
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 2: percent postgame win expectancy against Kansas. Kansas and Jalen Daniels

661
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:39,600
Speaker 2: had two drives that were just one play, an explosive

662
00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,120
Speaker 2: pass each to Emanuel Henderson that was like seventy five

663
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 2: and ninety three yards. Dante Corleone didn't play last week,

664
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:49,280
Speaker 2: so I don't you know, I'm pretty sure. Yeah, and

665
00:32:49,360 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 2: so Saderfield said this week the only thing he would say,

666
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:54,560
Speaker 2: I think on yesterday and Wednesday said he's trending in

667
00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:56,640
Speaker 2: the right direction. I mean, that still makes me a

668
00:32:56,680 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 2: little bit nervous that there could be a scratch on Saturday.

669
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 2: We'll see. But the Bearcats did struggle to create a

670
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 2: pass rush without the Godfather, so that does make it.

671
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 3: They're not get an elite pressure. They're like bottom twenty

672
00:33:06,960 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 3: among Power four teams than Iowa State. But I do

673
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 3: think Coreleon is important, super important. Right I've been told

674
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:14,360
Speaker 3: he's gonna play, so.

675
00:33:14,880 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 2: When you go to the other side of the ball,

676
00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:19,640
Speaker 2: there's nothing fraudish about this offense. I mean, Soresby's ten

677
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 2: to one TD to in t his turnover worthy play

678
00:33:21,920 --> 00:33:27,479
Speaker 2: rate is a one point five percent. As tiny Elite

679
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:30,640
Speaker 2: Zone and Elite Zone read concepts with Tobbey Walker and

680
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 2: Evan Pryor, I just didn't think that was possible. Tobby Walker,

681
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 2: He's never shown anything in his prior stops to say

682
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 2: that he could do this. But right now they are

683
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 2: top three nationally in rushing success rate and line yards.

684
00:33:40,760 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 2: They are owning the trench. They are heavily in standard

685
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 2: downs all the time, Iowa states three three five. If

686
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,920
Speaker 2: they don't have big citrus, if orange isn't there, I

687
00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 2: mean they hild Arizona to five yards per play no

688
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 2: explosives against Fafida. But if this defense is missing the interior,

689
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:58,360
Speaker 2: now two corners are gone, it's a completely different ballgame. Iways,

690
00:33:58,360 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 2: Say's defense rushypas now sixth, but you know a lot

691
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:04,120
Speaker 2: of that is running cover two because they forced their

692
00:34:04,160 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 2: safeties to come up and help. It's not really the

693
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 2: defensive line. I'm not sure you can do that against

694
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:12,000
Speaker 2: Sowarsby in his arm to me, Corleon makes all the difference.

695
00:34:12,000 --> 00:34:14,200
Speaker 2: I want to know that he plays before I back Cincinnati.

696
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,280
Speaker 2: So my bet this week on Cincinnati was over twenty

697
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 2: seven and a half team total because that offense is legit.

698
00:34:20,960 --> 00:34:23,880
Speaker 2: That zone read concept with Walker and Pryor is insane.

699
00:34:24,400 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 2: I mean third nationally and success rate, lineyards. You can

700
00:34:27,080 --> 00:34:29,240
Speaker 2: count me in on the Bearcats offense getting their share points.

701
00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 3: All right, Let's head back to the SEC. Mississippi State

702
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,719
Speaker 3: at Texas A and M. I think Texas A and

703
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:37,960
Speaker 3: M is a team to watch, team that is under

704
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:39,719
Speaker 3: the rate, flying under the raider, that could make noise

705
00:34:39,760 --> 00:34:42,279
Speaker 3: in the coachwall playoff. I love that I saw from

706
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:44,360
Speaker 3: Elco on that defense last week, some of the tweaks

707
00:34:44,400 --> 00:34:47,959
Speaker 3: that he made coming out of the buy this spot

708
00:34:48,040 --> 00:34:51,320
Speaker 3: screams A and M to me. Just on the surface.

709
00:34:51,360 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 3: This Mississippi State off the heartbreaking overtime loss, this is

710
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 3: their sixth straight week of playing TEXTA. A and M

711
00:34:57,560 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 3: will be much fresher Mississippi State defense. They have some

712
00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:05,640
Speaker 3: late down regression coming. I think they're going to get

713
00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 3: torched here. I like what I see from Texas A

714
00:35:08,000 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 3: and M's defense, so I like the aggies here. What

715
00:35:11,200 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 3: do you see?

716
00:35:11,840 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 2: I absolutely agree and there's no disrespective. Misstate. I still

717
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:16,440
Speaker 2: think they're pretty good. I think they're just they're due

718
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 2: to get their clock cleaned. I mean they're still not

719
00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:21,680
Speaker 2: producing a pass rush, which is kind of needed here Tennessee.

720
00:35:22,200 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 2: Despite that game being so close, they still completed ten

721
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:30,360
Speaker 2: passes of fifteen yards or more. That's a lot. I mean,

722
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:32,680
Speaker 2: Missippi State gave up a lot of explosives, as you

723
00:35:32,800 --> 00:35:36,240
Speaker 2: probably should against Tennessee, but Tennessee doubled the national average

724
00:35:36,239 --> 00:35:38,720
Speaker 2: and explosive drive rate. Well, guess what I mean. Texas

725
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:40,320
Speaker 2: A and M can do the same thing with Craber

726
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:42,760
Speaker 2: and Concepcion. And if you look up the box.

727
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 3: Score, and they're going to dominate the their offensive line

728
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 3: to to dominate the line of scrimmage.

729
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 2: Yes, if you look in the box score, sixteen targets

730
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:51,960
Speaker 2: for Tennessee went to Mike Matthews and Chris Burzel. Those

731
00:35:52,000 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 2: are both lined up at whiteout and they went for

732
00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 2: two hundred and twenty three yards. Who's the white outs

733
00:35:56,800 --> 00:35:58,640
Speaker 2: that we should be looking at if you're if you're

734
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 2: looking for a prop bet here in this game. Craver

735
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:04,400
Speaker 2: is pure slot. I mean, he's an animal, maybe the

736
00:36:04,480 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 2: best in the business. But Casey Concepcion, Terry Bussy and

737
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 2: Ashton Bethel Roman, they're the ones that line up at

738
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:11,919
Speaker 2: whiteout all the time. I think they might be worth

739
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 2: a prop here. The Texas A and M defense deserves

740
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 2: mentioned because they kind of dogged on him a couple weeks.

741
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:20,880
Speaker 2: They allowed just a single explosive pass to Auburn and

742
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:24,759
Speaker 2: Jackson Arnold. The Tigers averaged three point one yards per play.

743
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:26,840
Speaker 2: The Texas A and M defense finally showed up. I

744
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:28,760
Speaker 2: mean that rank of one hundred and eighteenth and tackling

745
00:36:29,560 --> 00:36:32,120
Speaker 2: they only missed six against Auburn. I think it's trending

746
00:36:32,200 --> 00:36:33,800
Speaker 2: in the right direction. To me, the Texas A and

747
00:36:33,920 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 2: M defense is trending in the opposite direction of the

748
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 2: Miami defense. So I think they've turned the corner. I legitimately,

749
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 2: you know, I have a fifty to one national title

750
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:47,320
Speaker 2: ticket from the day after the National title. I'm legitimately

751
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 2: wondering if I need to be making I think they're

752
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,279
Speaker 2: minus one ten to make the playoff somewhere around there.

753
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 2: Like A and M's got legs, I mean legs to

754
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:56,560
Speaker 2: run in the postseason.

755
00:36:56,760 --> 00:36:59,040
Speaker 3: They really got plus two seventy to make the playoff

756
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 3: from yeah, I mean, what are they not.

757
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:05,640
Speaker 2: If the defense improves and you've got Craver and Concepcion.

758
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 3: And that offensive line and run game, eh, it's this

759
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:10,320
Speaker 3: is and good special teams.

760
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:12,640
Speaker 2: This is a national problem for everybody.

761
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,040
Speaker 3: All right, let's hit some I put A and M

762
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:19,480
Speaker 3: on the board, by the way, is that okay? Oh yeah,

763
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 3: all right, let's hit to the rundowns. A couple of

764
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 3: games here Boise stayed at Notre Dame. Notre Dame twenty

765
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:28,359
Speaker 3: and a half point favorite. Shout out to a friend

766
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:30,799
Speaker 3: of the show to Mary I saw tweeted this out

767
00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:33,799
Speaker 3: earlier since Freeman arrived at the start of the twenty

768
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:36,840
Speaker 3: twenty two season. Notre Dame is a national best thirty

769
00:37:36,920 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 3: fourteen and two against the spread, but they're just four

770
00:37:39,600 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 3: and six against the spread against G five teams, including

771
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:44,799
Speaker 3: one and six against the spread versus unranked G five

772
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:47,120
Speaker 3: teams with two outright losses lost to Marshall and NIU.

773
00:37:48,719 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 3: My numbers say there's value on Boise. No thanks, Leonard

774
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:55,839
Speaker 3: Moore should be back, boy. I don't know how Boys

775
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 3: is going to get a stop, and Notre Dame knows

776
00:37:59,160 --> 00:37:59,520
Speaker 3: right now.

777
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:00,200
Speaker 2: Yep.

778
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:06,040
Speaker 3: Two losses, style points matter, Yep, absolutely because my numbers.

779
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:08,400
Speaker 3: But I'm not playing Boys here because they're they're not

780
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:09,120
Speaker 3: going to get a stop.

781
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:09,680
Speaker 2: Yeah.

782
00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 3: Shout out to its not going to stop. Shout out to.

783
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:14,960
Speaker 2: Ten for a thousand text messages about our Notre Dame

784
00:38:15,120 --> 00:38:17,640
Speaker 2: Arkansas rivalry but then not texting me once after we

785
00:38:17,719 --> 00:38:20,200
Speaker 2: got blown out and fired our coach. I appreciate the respect,

786
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:23,440
Speaker 2: like not rubbing it in, but you know, Listen, you're right,

787
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:26,080
Speaker 2: the style points absolutely matter here. Notre Dame needs to

788
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:28,439
Speaker 2: get in and if there's a plethora of two loss teams,

789
00:38:28,440 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 2: they are going to be in the mix without a

790
00:38:29,560 --> 00:38:32,560
Speaker 2: conference championship to play in. So this is really important.

791
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:34,759
Speaker 2: And they need USC to win out too. They they

792
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 2: they need style points here and I wouldn't be surprised

793
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 2: to see Freeman lay it on here if they absolutely

794
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 2: have to do it now.

795
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 3: Both these there are not many games where like everyone's

796
00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 3: gonna be watching and like this is like there's only

797
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:46,359
Speaker 3: a couple. I'm like, this is as close as it gets.

798
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 3: Is that's how easy their schedule is thrust away. I

799
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:49,440
Speaker 3: think USC.

800
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 2: The thing for me is is like you just put

801
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:53,840
Speaker 2: a fifty burger up on Arkansas when you didn't need to,

802
00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 2: and you did. Are you going to put a fifty

803
00:38:56,120 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 2: burger up on the Boise defense, which you absolutely can?

804
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 2: You know, both defenses are pretty horrendous and allowing drives

805
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:05,800
Speaker 2: and points. Bois's one hundred and twenty seventh in defensive

806
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 2: finishing drives. Just cross the forty, you're gonna get a touchdown.

807
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 2: Can Boise stop the potent zone? Read of Price and

808
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:14,960
Speaker 2: Love probably not mild success, right, but look at their

809
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:19,960
Speaker 2: strength to schedule one hundred and tenth. I don't Notre

810
00:39:20,040 --> 00:39:22,920
Speaker 2: Dame's defense needs to improve. They need they really need

811
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:26,000
Speaker 2: to limit Boise to about seventeen points in this game.

812
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:29,440
Speaker 2: But I really actually think they can.

813
00:39:29,640 --> 00:39:31,880
Speaker 3: I think their defense is gonna is already hit rock

814
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:33,680
Speaker 3: bottom for the Arkansas game. Leonard Moore is gonna be

815
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:36,879
Speaker 3: back here, so I think that they'll probably force Matt

816
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 3: Mattox Matson, who puts the ball on harms way to

817
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:40,239
Speaker 3: a couple turnovers, and then this will get ugly.

818
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:42,200
Speaker 2: I think if you have a book that offers it,

819
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:45,080
Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised to see Notre Dame go over

820
00:39:45,160 --> 00:39:46,760
Speaker 2: forty nine and a half here. I think a fifty

821
00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:48,799
Speaker 2: burger on this scoreboard at the end of this day

822
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:51,960
Speaker 2: is something that they want to put up there again consecutively.

823
00:39:52,840 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Freeman, sometimes this team struggle with like the

824
00:39:56,640 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 3: sleepy spots against G five teams. This isn't one of those, right,

825
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:04,399
Speaker 3: like Boise stage, so they'll they'll be ready for this game.

826
00:40:04,640 --> 00:40:07,440
Speaker 3: This is a brand name, yeah, and this isn't like

827
00:40:07,560 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 3: NIU trying to bleed out the clock the entire game.

828
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:14,520
Speaker 3: All right, Uh, Kentucky at Georgia. Georgia, what twenty and

829
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:16,399
Speaker 3: a half point favorite or total forty eight and a half?

830
00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 3: Kirby Smart is like the worst favorite of all the

831
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:22,080
Speaker 3: worst big favorite of all time. I already mentioned before

832
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:24,400
Speaker 3: he's oh and fifteen against the spread as a favorite

833
00:40:24,440 --> 00:40:26,759
Speaker 3: of thirty eight or more, well as a favorite of

834
00:40:26,840 --> 00:40:29,560
Speaker 3: twenty or more Against SEC teams, He's eight and seventeen

835
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:32,279
Speaker 3: against the spread, including oh and seven in his last seven.

836
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:35,480
Speaker 3: Doesn't usually show much. I mean, and we know Kentucky

837
00:40:35,840 --> 00:40:37,719
Speaker 3: and Stoops is just they're gonna play a ton of zone.

838
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:39,440
Speaker 3: They're gonna try and take away the explosive play. They're

839
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:42,040
Speaker 3: gonna try and shorten this game. So my first thought

840
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:45,080
Speaker 3: would be an under here? Do I want to lay

841
00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 3: it with Georgia? Not really, I mean, Stockton hasn't been

842
00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 3: that great against zone defense. His numbers are much better

843
00:40:51,000 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 3: against man, which worries me. So said, yeah, I mean,

844
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 3: I'm on I'm on market. But for how I see

845
00:40:57,600 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 3: this playing out, I could see an under forty eight.

846
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:02,279
Speaker 1: When you worry about results, like so many people in

847
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:05,280
Speaker 1: our society do, it makes it tough to ever be happy.

848
00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:08,399
Speaker 1: So we don't concern ourselves with the results. We try

849
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:12,680
Speaker 1: to focus on unbelievable effort, resiliency and relentless effort, and

850
00:41:12,920 --> 00:41:15,120
Speaker 1: that's what matters. And if you do that, you'll usually

851
00:41:15,120 --> 00:41:15,840
Speaker 1: get good results.

852
00:41:15,960 --> 00:41:16,960
Speaker 3: What are you seeing or anything?

853
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think Josh I like a Josh McCrae any

854
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:22,040
Speaker 2: time TD. He's just a red zone tank. He's got

855
00:41:22,120 --> 00:41:25,160
Speaker 2: ten rushes, ten red zone rushes. I think he's worth

856
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:27,439
Speaker 2: a flyer for in any time TD. But the question

857
00:41:27,560 --> 00:41:30,800
Speaker 2: is is can the Kentucky offense challenge where Georgia can't defend?

858
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:34,399
Speaker 2: Georgia has a horrible pass rush, They only send four

859
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 2: and they don't get pressure. Their defensive passing successory to

860
00:41:37,239 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 2: one hundred and eighteenth and they have a coverage grade

861
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:42,400
Speaker 2: of ninety third. Is Kentucky going to challenge that they

862
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:44,759
Speaker 2: weren't going to? No, absolutely not. Cutter Bowley is not

863
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 2: going to challenge that four turnover worthy plays against South Carolina. Yeah.

864
00:41:49,520 --> 00:41:53,320
Speaker 2: I mean this passing offense of Kentucky does not have

865
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 2: what it takes to attack Georgia where they're weakest and

866
00:41:56,280 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 2: the defense is haviocless one hundred and twenty ninth. They're

867
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:00,839
Speaker 2: just going to play what they got back, all eleven

868
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:03,800
Speaker 2: up and play an eleven man shell EPA outside the

869
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:08,319
Speaker 2: top eighty five against rushing and passing explosives. I mean

870
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:10,760
Speaker 2: it's it's I don't know. The numbers are not pointing.

871
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:14,040
Speaker 2: I know you point out the Kirby trend, but at

872
00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:17,439
Speaker 2: least eight of those were covers. I mean, Georgia hasn't

873
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,440
Speaker 2: had much success in creating explosives, but I think this

874
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 2: is something where they line up an inside zone and

875
00:42:22,080 --> 00:42:24,879
Speaker 2: they run inside zone up against the Kentucky defense. It's

876
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:26,960
Speaker 2: only been forty one percent success, right, That's why I

877
00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:30,680
Speaker 2: do like probably running back props here. I think Bowen's

878
00:42:31,560 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 2: is the dude, but McCrae has been the red zone tank.

879
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:35,640
Speaker 2: If you get a red the McCray anytime TD I

880
00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:36,000
Speaker 2: take that.

881
00:42:37,239 --> 00:42:41,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, this like, this is how this plays out usually

882
00:42:41,440 --> 00:42:43,879
Speaker 3: compared to what your first thought would be. Your first

883
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:46,439
Speaker 3: thought is George is angry. You're playing a bad team.

884
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:50,960
Speaker 3: But all like sixty five percent of the time historically,

885
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:54,880
Speaker 3: these teams off of a top fifteen loss, and you know,

886
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:57,359
Speaker 3: top fifteen team versus top fifty team the next week

887
00:42:57,360 --> 00:42:59,799
Speaker 3: when they're a big favorite, they almost always come out

888
00:42:59,840 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 3: for and.

889
00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:03,759
Speaker 2: This is what is a noon kick, Like, so it's

890
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:06,600
Speaker 2: a run the ball game. Yeah, so it's a Georgia run.

891
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 3: The arg is gonna come out with their hair on fire,

892
00:43:08,760 --> 00:43:11,920
Speaker 3: and that's they could, but that's usually not how these

893
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:16,520
Speaker 3: things transpire. Speaking of potential under Minnesota at Ohio State,

894
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 3: Ohio State twenty three and a half point favorites, I mean,

895
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:23,959
Speaker 3: this is a potential like flat spot for Ohio State,

896
00:43:24,160 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 3: Like I could just see them. You know, they went

897
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:28,320
Speaker 3: on the road, they got that huge win at Washington.

898
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 3: A lot of people were calling for potential upset. This totally. Yes,

899
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:36,279
Speaker 3: this total keeps coming down. Man, I wish I got this.

900
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:40,400
Speaker 3: Wish I already bet this. But number one, how's Minnesota

901
00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:40,919
Speaker 3: going to score?

902
00:43:41,160 --> 00:43:42,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know.

903
00:43:42,760 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 3: Number two these are so what Minnesota is gonna try

904
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 3: to do is shorten this game. They're already there are

905
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 3: always a snail. They're gonna try and shorten this game

906
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:52,680
Speaker 3: as much as possible. Is Darius Taylor playing, I'm not

907
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:55,520
Speaker 3: saying update regardless, I can't see them doing much. We

908
00:43:55,640 --> 00:43:57,680
Speaker 3: also don't talk enough about Ohio State and how slow

909
00:43:57,680 --> 00:44:00,960
Speaker 3: they've been for the past two years. Lastate last year

910
00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 3: was a snail this year, they are like, they are

911
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:07,520
Speaker 3: so slow it's insane. So the tempo of this game

912
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:12,800
Speaker 3: is going to be incredibly slow. Markets coming down on this,

913
00:44:13,040 --> 00:44:16,320
Speaker 3: but it's forty three and a half. I think the

914
00:44:16,400 --> 00:44:19,160
Speaker 3: only teams slower from a second per play basis this

915
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:22,399
Speaker 3: year they Ohio State is ul Monroe and they're they're

916
00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:23,960
Speaker 3: behind like Navy and Bandy.

917
00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:27,839
Speaker 2: Ohio State is thirty one point two seconds per play.

918
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:34,879
Speaker 3: They're super snail. So yeah, I could see Minnesota trying

919
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:37,680
Speaker 3: to take away the explosive play on D and then

920
00:44:37,760 --> 00:44:39,359
Speaker 3: they're going to try and shorten this game even more

921
00:44:39,400 --> 00:44:40,040
Speaker 3: than they usually do.

922
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:41,719
Speaker 2: You're right there, one hundred and thirty fourth.

923
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:48,279
Speaker 3: It's insane. So I had strongly to under like I'm

924
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:50,759
Speaker 3: cup close to market on the spread. I could see

925
00:44:50,760 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 3: Ohio State being a little flat to start, but I

926
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:56,600
Speaker 3: don't see the Minnesota offense having much success. I just

927
00:44:56,640 --> 00:44:59,120
Speaker 3: can't see the path. Do you see anything there?

928
00:44:59,360 --> 00:44:59,520
Speaker 1: You know?

929
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 2: The MINNISA to strength of schedule really kind of shades

930
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 2: their numbers. I mean, they beat Rutgers by three, a

931
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:08,920
Speaker 2: cow loss Northwestern State Buffalo. I'm struggling to find the identity.

932
00:45:08,920 --> 00:45:12,120
Speaker 2: And then when you don't have DT potentially because of

933
00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:14,759
Speaker 2: his hamstring. That kind of clouds things even more. The

934
00:45:14,800 --> 00:45:17,800
Speaker 2: team is still ninety seventh in offensive finishing drives despite

935
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:20,680
Speaker 2: playing this kind of cake schedule, they're one of the

936
00:45:20,719 --> 00:45:22,879
Speaker 2: worst and fbs and creating a run over ten yards

937
00:45:22,960 --> 00:45:24,880
Speaker 2: that's not going to be helped any this week. And

938
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:27,600
Speaker 2: the Ohio State d is top five and everything success

939
00:45:27,600 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 2: for ADPA third down defense, which the third down defense

940
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:34,719
Speaker 2: being fourth nationally. Like, does Minnesota create like two first

941
00:45:34,760 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 2: downs and a drive in this game? I'm not really sure?

942
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:40,640
Speaker 3: And so proving it against that electric Washington offense which

943
00:45:40,680 --> 00:45:43,759
Speaker 3: has like a future pro quarterback, a pro running back,

944
00:45:43,840 --> 00:45:47,919
Speaker 3: a pro wide receiver like Texas has its issues. Take

945
00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:50,880
Speaker 3: it against that Washington offense that the is legit.

946
00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:53,600
Speaker 2: Yeah to me, this is the same game that was

947
00:45:53,600 --> 00:45:57,120
Speaker 2: played two years ago when Ryan Day won thirty seven

948
00:45:57,160 --> 00:46:01,080
Speaker 2: to three. There's overlook, if you want to call it overlook.

949
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:04,160
Speaker 2: Illinois was supposed to be as somebody I guess they

950
00:46:04,200 --> 00:46:07,840
Speaker 2: are again with a win over USC, but a matchup

951
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:10,680
Speaker 2: against you know, Bert and the size of Illinois and

952
00:46:11,000 --> 00:46:13,400
Speaker 2: all that on the road is much bigger than this.

953
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 2: And I think the score of thirty say, if I

954
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:17,800
Speaker 2: had to name it exactly, I'd say thirty seven to

955
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:19,560
Speaker 2: three from what we had two years ago is exactly

956
00:46:19,600 --> 00:46:21,680
Speaker 2: what's gonna happen here. But you know, right has a

957
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:22,560
Speaker 2: chance to put it up.

958
00:46:22,760 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 3: That's great. Maybe both a better exact score prop because

959
00:46:25,160 --> 00:46:26,879
Speaker 3: that was my prediction thirty seven to three.

960
00:46:26,960 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, that's what the score was two years ago.

961
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:30,400
Speaker 2: I mean Ryan Day had a chance to put it

962
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:33,760
Speaker 2: up on them, but no, forty total points.

963
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:36,720
Speaker 3: All right, Yeah, lean under there. Texas Tech at Houston.

964
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:38,800
Speaker 3: Texas Tech eleven and a half point favorite. Looks like

965
00:46:38,840 --> 00:46:41,759
Speaker 3: Barry Morton will play. Houston's really beat up. They got

966
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 3: a lot of injuries last week. They were very lucky

967
00:46:43,640 --> 00:46:44,600
Speaker 3: to win at Oregon State.

968
00:46:45,239 --> 00:46:45,919
Speaker 2: They're so bad.

969
00:46:46,320 --> 00:46:49,239
Speaker 3: Pass defense looks good. They're not gonna able to block

970
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:52,359
Speaker 3: Texas Tech here, so I can't see them moving the ball.

971
00:46:53,120 --> 00:46:55,000
Speaker 3: This looks like an under to me.

972
00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:57,040
Speaker 2: The Houston offense is a disaster.

973
00:46:57,360 --> 00:46:59,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, they're not gonna be able to block Texas Tech

974
00:46:59,080 --> 00:46:59,439
Speaker 3: up front.

975
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:00,120
Speaker 1: No.

976
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:02,759
Speaker 3: Fifty one is a key. At fifty one and a half,

977
00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:07,160
Speaker 3: this looks second under to me. Yeah, Well, the next Tech,

978
00:47:07,239 --> 00:47:08,759
Speaker 3: Houston's gonna try to run the ball. They're gonna try

979
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:09,359
Speaker 3: and shorten this game.

980
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:11,640
Speaker 2: Like Baron Morton has a neck injury? Why is he?

981
00:47:11,800 --> 00:47:13,360
Speaker 2: Why is he even the game? What to hand off?

982
00:47:13,840 --> 00:47:16,439
Speaker 2: Like to me, this is a Jacoby Williams Cameron Dickie

983
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:18,480
Speaker 2: game like, and that's how you get your under. But

984
00:47:18,520 --> 00:47:21,759
Speaker 2: at the same time, Houston, I mean, the offense is

985
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:27,200
Speaker 2: a disaster. Last year, did you know Connor Weegman has

986
00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:29,880
Speaker 2: fifty five pressures and one hundred and twenty five dropbacks?

987
00:47:30,600 --> 00:47:33,239
Speaker 3: Like every the zero line is a mess. They have

988
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:36,239
Speaker 3: injuries and they're not gonna then Texas Tech is the

989
00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 3: best D line in the Big twelve by a million miles.

990
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 2: Well, I let's yeah, I think I think under is

991
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:46,200
Speaker 2: the play, but I think the better play might be

992
00:47:46,920 --> 00:47:49,719
Speaker 2: Houston's team total under and then go around and just

993
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:52,160
Speaker 2: maybe bet at Jacoby Williams or Cameron Dickery prop Cameron

994
00:47:52,239 --> 00:47:55,800
Speaker 2: dickiy prop. But I don't know Houston's offense.

995
00:47:57,080 --> 00:48:00,880
Speaker 3: Anything. In Virginia at Louisville, for what it's worth, Louisville

996
00:48:00,920 --> 00:48:03,360
Speaker 3: six and a half point favorite. Here Tony Elliott is

997
00:48:03,760 --> 00:48:05,279
Speaker 3: ten and one against the spread as a dog of

998
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:08,960
Speaker 3: seven plus in conference games. Yeah, I want to play

999
00:48:09,040 --> 00:48:13,359
Speaker 3: Lovier on the spot, but they're just not and their

1000
00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:15,720
Speaker 3: d has been really good and it looks like Virginia

1001
00:48:15,719 --> 00:48:17,920
Speaker 3: will be without their stud center again, although the kid

1002
00:48:17,920 --> 00:48:20,680
Speaker 3: who shifted over there played really well last week. Louisville,

1003
00:48:21,480 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 3: I love what I've seen from their defense. They can't

1004
00:48:24,040 --> 00:48:26,080
Speaker 3: run the ball, yeah, but their backs just aren't fully

1005
00:48:26,160 --> 00:48:28,840
Speaker 3: healthy yet. So like their backs, they had one of

1006
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:32,520
Speaker 3: the best backfields in the country. They're playing, Watson are playing,

1007
00:48:32,560 --> 00:48:34,960
Speaker 3: but they're not They're not healthy, so like, when are

1008
00:48:34,960 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 3: they going to get healthy? And then I think you're

1009
00:48:36,680 --> 00:48:38,680
Speaker 3: gonna see this offense take off, Like even their their

1010
00:48:38,880 --> 00:48:41,879
Speaker 3: wide receivers are hurt, so like they're gutting through these

1011
00:48:41,920 --> 00:48:44,480
Speaker 3: wins and finding a way to win. But their offense

1012
00:48:44,560 --> 00:48:46,719
Speaker 3: and they're rushing numbers all look bad because the backs

1013
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:51,600
Speaker 3: aren't at one hundred percent, So I can't fully trust them.

1014
00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:53,560
Speaker 2: Here.

1015
00:48:53,760 --> 00:48:56,080
Speaker 3: So this is probably a past we'll be rooting for Louisville.

1016
00:48:57,000 --> 00:48:57,120
Speaker 1: Uh.

1017
00:48:57,320 --> 00:48:58,920
Speaker 3: And then I think it's which is huge, is that

1018
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:02,000
Speaker 3: if they just squeak out this game, get a bye week,

1019
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:05,759
Speaker 3: get healthier. Brahms a dog is always worth a look

1020
00:49:05,800 --> 00:49:08,279
Speaker 3: at Miami. If Miami's so undefeated, they'll be worth a

1021
00:49:08,320 --> 00:49:10,319
Speaker 3: look there, but I got to stay away just because

1022
00:49:10,360 --> 00:49:12,319
Speaker 3: I need to see the full health from the from

1023
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:13,640
Speaker 3: all the weapons on Louisville.

1024
00:49:13,719 --> 00:49:16,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, if we get some positive news on that health,

1025
00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:18,200
Speaker 2: I would want to back Louisville.

1026
00:49:18,200 --> 00:49:19,759
Speaker 3: But I'm sure I make it like seven, and I

1027
00:49:19,840 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 3: make it slightly over seven.

1028
00:49:20,960 --> 00:49:25,200
Speaker 2: So I make it ten. I mean, but yeah, I

1029
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:27,080
Speaker 2: think here's one thing that bothers me about when I

1030
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:29,320
Speaker 2: was doing all the numbers for all the games, Like

1031
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 2: how is Virginia eleventh and Havock allowed with Chandler Morris

1032
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:35,799
Speaker 2: as the quarterback? Like I need to go back and like.

1033
00:49:38,320 --> 00:49:44,120
Speaker 3: Against Army right now, Louisville's.

1034
00:49:42,239 --> 00:49:44,640
Speaker 2: Greated as the number one pass rush for PFF, so.

1035
00:49:45,680 --> 00:49:46,840
Speaker 3: Their d mind is nasty?

1036
00:49:47,080 --> 00:49:49,279
Speaker 2: Is that Virginia have it allowed at eleventh? Is that

1037
00:49:49,320 --> 00:49:51,680
Speaker 2: going to take a serious tumble after this game? So

1038
00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 2: that's that's kind of what I've been thinking with this one.

1039
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:55,880
Speaker 3: I could see it. But Virginia's offense is real, Like

1040
00:49:55,960 --> 00:49:59,839
Speaker 3: they they hit on their portal guys and it's based

1041
00:49:59,880 --> 00:50:03,040
Speaker 3: on their numbers adjusting for opponent. It's it's real, all right,

1042
00:50:04,040 --> 00:50:06,839
Speaker 3: But I still don't fully trust their defense, all right? Uh,

1043
00:50:07,800 --> 00:50:10,120
Speaker 3: Duke cal I kind of lean Cal catching three. My

1044
00:50:10,600 --> 00:50:13,280
Speaker 3: fear from a spot if like both teams are traveling

1045
00:50:13,280 --> 00:50:16,239
Speaker 3: across the Country's Cal played at PC, Duke played at

1046
00:50:16,239 --> 00:50:18,640
Speaker 3: Syracuse at the gates, that travel a little bit. My

1047
00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:23,040
Speaker 3: fear is that jks he still takes too many sacks

1048
00:50:23,760 --> 00:50:27,080
Speaker 3: and that can be problematic against Duke. Yeah, he holds

1049
00:50:27,120 --> 00:50:29,080
Speaker 3: onto the balltone so Mike kill so many drives or

1050
00:50:29,080 --> 00:50:30,920
Speaker 3: too many negative plays, But we lean their way up

1051
00:50:30,960 --> 00:50:33,879
Speaker 3: plus three. Some quarterback injuries worth noting? Is it cam

1052
00:50:34,000 --> 00:50:37,920
Speaker 3: Fancer time again? First? Ucf Both their quarterbacks might be hurt.

1053
00:50:37,960 --> 00:50:42,000
Speaker 3: They have some injuries worth watching Against Kansas Akron I

1054
00:50:42,040 --> 00:50:43,920
Speaker 3: don't know he's finly gonna play against Central Michigan. I

1055
00:50:43,960 --> 00:50:46,839
Speaker 3: don't know they were He was a surprise scratch last week.

1056
00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:50,400
Speaker 3: They were disaster their backup quarterbacks against Toledo. They threw

1057
00:50:50,440 --> 00:50:53,280
Speaker 3: it like twenty four times for seventy yards and Acron

1058
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:55,160
Speaker 3: at a bunch of other starters out there running back,

1059
00:50:55,200 --> 00:50:59,239
Speaker 3: their safety, their linebacker. Kansas State, they're receivers. It looks

1060
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:02,000
Speaker 3: like they are gonna play at Baylor Wisconsin. It looks

1061
00:51:02,040 --> 00:51:04,560
Speaker 3: like Billy Edwards is not going to play, so it's

1062
00:51:04,600 --> 00:51:09,920
Speaker 3: gonna be O'Neill. Wisconsin's unbettable when he plays at Michigan Buffalo.

1063
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:12,960
Speaker 3: Looks like Robison will play at quarterback. There's some tough

1064
00:51:13,040 --> 00:51:16,400
Speaker 3: spots for Penn State. Penn State again off that big loss,

1065
00:51:16,520 --> 00:51:20,040
Speaker 3: big Top five game, and then head across country to

1066
00:51:20,120 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 3: play Ucla. Usually you come out flat, even though you

1067
00:51:22,600 --> 00:51:25,240
Speaker 3: think they'd come out angry. Usually you come out flat.

1068
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:29,359
Speaker 3: Although UCLA can't get pressure, so maybe you know they

1069
00:51:29,440 --> 00:51:32,439
Speaker 3: just fire their oc It's a mess. Washington. Tough spot

1070
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:36,399
Speaker 3: coming across country to take on Maryland after that Marquee game.

1071
00:51:36,440 --> 00:51:38,359
Speaker 3: A lot of injuries to watch with Washington as well.

1072
00:51:38,719 --> 00:51:41,760
Speaker 3: There's also wins to high wins in the Nebraska Michigan

1073
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:44,160
Speaker 3: State game, which is why that total has come down.

1074
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:46,120
Speaker 3: See anything in any of those games I mentioned. I

1075
00:51:46,120 --> 00:51:47,040
Speaker 3: think you played Ucla.

1076
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:49,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I did play UCLA. Penn State had a serious

1077
00:51:49,960 --> 00:51:53,919
Speaker 2: issue going west and playing against usc last year, sort

1078
00:51:53,960 --> 00:51:56,600
Speaker 2: of a letdown spot, and I just look, Franklin has

1079
00:51:56,640 --> 00:51:59,799
Speaker 2: not covered games this year whatsoever. I think Ucla, after

1080
00:51:59,880 --> 00:52:02,879
Speaker 2: the firing of Deshaun Foster, they're going to progressively get

1081
00:52:02,960 --> 00:52:05,839
Speaker 2: better week by week. For the guys that haven't entered

1082
00:52:05,880 --> 00:52:07,359
Speaker 2: the portal and the guys that are there to make

1083
00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:09,279
Speaker 2: themselves better. This will be a theme next week when

1084
00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:12,200
Speaker 2: we start talking about Arkansas again. What are you playing for?

1085
00:52:12,680 --> 00:52:14,760
Speaker 2: You're playing for a better dollar value in the portal

1086
00:52:15,120 --> 00:52:16,120
Speaker 2: and I think, yeah, they're.

1087
00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:18,200
Speaker 3: Playing for the Outback, the pride of the Outback Bowl.

1088
00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:22,560
Speaker 2: So I just I don't see Penn State having a

1089
00:52:22,640 --> 00:52:24,319
Speaker 2: need to run this up that much. And they had

1090
00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:26,279
Speaker 2: problems playing on the West coast last year. I mean,

1091
00:52:26,320 --> 00:52:30,560
Speaker 2: they nearly they needed some Tyler Warren heroics to get

1092
00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 2: out of there alive. And I'm not saying it's going

1093
00:52:32,719 --> 00:52:34,800
Speaker 2: to be that close, but I think we've hit the

1094
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:36,680
Speaker 2: bottom of the barrel as far as the market's concerned.

1095
00:52:36,719 --> 00:52:38,439
Speaker 2: On UCLA, Hey, UCLI.

1096
00:52:38,160 --> 00:52:40,799
Speaker 3: Covered was one of my two wins I had last week.

1097
00:52:41,760 --> 00:52:44,879
Speaker 3: They didn't quit under Skipper. They're fighting like they could

1098
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:46,960
Speaker 3: have folded. In that Northwestern game, they were down, I

1099
00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:49,160
Speaker 3: forget what the score was, seventeen to three at one point,

1100
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:52,560
Speaker 3: they fought, came back. They were fighting. I think they'll

1101
00:52:52,560 --> 00:52:54,719
Speaker 3: continue to fight for him all right. By the way,

1102
00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:57,160
Speaker 3: if you're new here the Action Nework AAP, you were

1103
00:52:57,200 --> 00:52:59,200
Speaker 3: winning Action work map. It's free and if you don't

1104
00:52:59,239 --> 00:53:01,560
Speaker 3: have it. You were missing out on the full BBOC

1105
00:53:01,880 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 3: betting experience. And if you never want to miss event

1106
00:53:05,239 --> 00:53:08,520
Speaker 3: for myself Colin Duck with the whole squad, use code

1107
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:11,640
Speaker 3: BBOC twenty to get twenty hours off a year of

1108
00:53:11,800 --> 00:53:16,000
Speaker 3: action pro access. Promise you it's worth it. All right,

1109
00:53:16,080 --> 00:53:17,760
Speaker 3: It's time for some trash.

1110
00:53:19,239 --> 00:53:23,360
Speaker 2: What's that smell? It tinks? What you mean this trash?

1111
00:53:23,640 --> 00:53:28,360
Speaker 3: The sweet sweet trash. The trash is a gold mine,

1112
00:53:28,440 --> 00:53:31,319
Speaker 3: old mine. All right, it's time for some trash. Been

1113
00:53:31,400 --> 00:53:35,080
Speaker 3: pushing money back and forth with these sixty percent lifetime

1114
00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:38,040
Speaker 3: on the show tracking the trash. This is usually when

1115
00:53:38,160 --> 00:53:40,200
Speaker 3: these start to take off from me. It doesn't guarantee

1116
00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:42,759
Speaker 3: that it's going to do that this year, but uh,

1117
00:53:43,160 --> 00:53:47,200
Speaker 3: let's get into some Let's start Purdue against Illinois. I'll

1118
00:53:47,880 --> 00:53:49,239
Speaker 3: give you the nine and a half. This is this

1119
00:53:49,400 --> 00:53:52,040
Speaker 3: is one of the spots of the year. Illinois six

1120
00:53:52,080 --> 00:53:55,240
Speaker 3: straight game in six straight week. They're off two emotional

1121
00:53:55,280 --> 00:53:59,120
Speaker 3: games against Indiana and against USC and last week, yeah,

1122
00:53:59,120 --> 00:54:01,000
Speaker 3: they look great against Vicia. Caught USC in a dream

1123
00:54:01,040 --> 00:54:04,759
Speaker 3: spot themselves. You know, noon kick or eleven am local kick.

1124
00:54:04,960 --> 00:54:07,120
Speaker 3: They played the US. He played the latest kickoff time

1125
00:54:07,160 --> 00:54:10,360
Speaker 3: the week before. Meanwhile, oh and by the way that

1126
00:54:10,440 --> 00:54:13,799
Speaker 3: I mentioned that Illinois has Ohio State coming to town

1127
00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:17,279
Speaker 3: next week Sandwich City. Meanwhile, Purdue coming off a bye.

1128
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:20,759
Speaker 3: That's really important to me for teams that have a

1129
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:23,040
Speaker 3: brand new staff and a brand new roster. No one

1130
00:54:23,120 --> 00:54:24,839
Speaker 3: has more of a brand new staff and Brandon roster

1131
00:54:24,920 --> 00:54:27,640
Speaker 3: than Purdue. Purdue has been fighty Ryan Brown's been playing well.

1132
00:54:28,600 --> 00:54:30,680
Speaker 3: I still don't trust this Illinois team. This is the

1133
00:54:30,719 --> 00:54:35,200
Speaker 3: same Illinois team that got pantsed by Indiana, the Indiana

1134
00:54:35,280 --> 00:54:38,880
Speaker 3: team that almost lost to Iowa. So the battle for

1135
00:54:38,920 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 3: the cannon dogs have usually historically barked in this series.

1136
00:54:45,560 --> 00:54:50,279
Speaker 3: Purdue is significantly improved. I like the Boilers plus nine

1137
00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:51,600
Speaker 3: and a half for what it's worth. Last year in

1138
00:54:51,640 --> 00:54:53,600
Speaker 3: a similar spot in the game Sandwich between a bunch

1139
00:54:53,640 --> 00:54:56,320
Speaker 3: of ranked teams, Illinois even coming after off of a

1140
00:54:56,440 --> 00:54:59,279
Speaker 3: bye against the corpse of Purdue that won one game

1141
00:54:59,320 --> 00:55:01,520
Speaker 3: they had, they won fifty to forty nine in overtime.

1142
00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:03,839
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think they're gonna be able to move

1143
00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:06,000
Speaker 3: the ball against Illinois defense. It's still some holes. They're

1144
00:55:06,000 --> 00:55:09,719
Speaker 3: still without Savier Scott and Illinois eventually regression is gonna

1145
00:55:09,760 --> 00:55:12,120
Speaker 3: hit this team. I mean, so far, they're perfect on

1146
00:55:12,200 --> 00:55:15,200
Speaker 3: fourth downs or plus five, turnovers produced minus five and

1147
00:55:15,280 --> 00:55:17,759
Speaker 3: by the way, this year these teams have both had

1148
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:21,680
Speaker 3: tough schedules. They're basically dead even in net yards per play.

1149
00:55:21,960 --> 00:55:25,799
Speaker 3: Oiler makers have a higher quality drive rate, So yeah,

1150
00:55:26,080 --> 00:55:30,600
Speaker 3: give me Purdue for what it's worth. Road Conference favorites

1151
00:55:30,640 --> 00:55:33,960
Speaker 3: of more than a touchdown on normal arrest following a

1152
00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:37,560
Speaker 3: win over a ranked opponent forty five percent over the

1153
00:55:37,640 --> 00:55:40,800
Speaker 3: past twenty seasons, and the ill This is probably meaningless,

1154
00:55:40,800 --> 00:55:44,480
Speaker 3: but it's just crazy. The Elini are the least profitable

1155
00:55:44,520 --> 00:55:48,120
Speaker 3: favorite of ten or fewer points in college football over

1156
00:55:48,160 --> 00:55:51,600
Speaker 3: the past twenty seasons. They're sixteen thirty seven and one

1157
00:55:51,640 --> 00:55:54,520
Speaker 3: against the spread, the worst by far thirty percent. It's

1158
00:55:54,760 --> 00:55:57,799
Speaker 3: meaningless to this game, but that's Ron Zook. By the way,

1159
00:55:57,800 --> 00:56:00,880
Speaker 3: if you remember him, give me Perdue on so we're.

1160
00:56:00,719 --> 00:56:04,000
Speaker 2: Actually mentioning the Zucker. I think the over is the

1161
00:56:04,080 --> 00:56:07,520
Speaker 2: better play in this game, but I do lean Purdue.

1162
00:56:07,560 --> 00:56:08,920
Speaker 2: If we could have got ten. It's at nine and

1163
00:56:08,960 --> 00:56:10,400
Speaker 2: a half, so I'm going to pass. I'm putting this

1164
00:56:10,520 --> 00:56:12,120
Speaker 2: on the board with you, but at the same time,

1165
00:56:12,160 --> 00:56:14,560
Speaker 2: I agree with your bet. Perdue's top twenty five and

1166
00:56:14,640 --> 00:56:17,799
Speaker 2: creating quality drives. They are very good top thirty five

1167
00:56:17,840 --> 00:56:21,120
Speaker 2: and passing success right, and Illinois has severely struggled in coverage.

1168
00:56:21,640 --> 00:56:24,080
Speaker 2: So I think Purdue gets their points. I'm and it's

1169
00:56:24,120 --> 00:56:26,160
Speaker 2: a bad spot for Illinois. I just wish we could

1170
00:56:26,160 --> 00:56:26,600
Speaker 2: have got ten.

1171
00:56:27,360 --> 00:56:30,120
Speaker 3: All right, We're going back to the Ohio fade. I'm

1172
00:56:30,160 --> 00:56:33,960
Speaker 3: going with ball State. This Ohio defense remains trash. I'm

1173
00:56:33,960 --> 00:56:35,600
Speaker 3: gonna hear from my guys I know on the call,

1174
00:56:35,800 --> 00:56:38,279
Speaker 3: the guy, my Ohio fans who call in, But this

1175
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:41,080
Speaker 3: is too many points for ball State. They're gonna run.

1176
00:56:41,120 --> 00:56:43,280
Speaker 3: They're basically an option team. You look at their run splits,

1177
00:56:43,320 --> 00:56:45,719
Speaker 3: the how slow they are. It is a hard number.

1178
00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:49,000
Speaker 3: This is basically like laying two touchdowns against an option team,

1179
00:56:49,200 --> 00:56:52,880
Speaker 3: this Ohio team. I like Navarro, I like Chase Hendrix,

1180
00:56:53,000 --> 00:56:55,480
Speaker 3: but this is too many points, too difficult to cover

1181
00:56:55,880 --> 00:56:58,120
Speaker 3: for what's going to be a slow paced game. Ball

1182
00:56:58,200 --> 00:57:02,080
Speaker 3: State coming off the by brand new team, brand new staff.

1183
00:57:02,120 --> 00:57:05,719
Speaker 3: I think that's important here. The Ohio run defense is

1184
00:57:05,800 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 3: missing a couple key pieces, and they have some late

1185
00:57:09,200 --> 00:57:11,160
Speaker 3: down kind of regression coming. They're outside the top one

1186
00:57:11,239 --> 00:57:13,760
Speaker 3: hundred and success rate, but their top ten on late downs.

1187
00:57:14,200 --> 00:57:16,360
Speaker 3: That's not going to keep up. This defense has major,

1188
00:57:16,440 --> 00:57:19,320
Speaker 3: major holes too many points. By the way, for what

1189
00:57:19,400 --> 00:57:22,760
Speaker 3: it's worth, Ohio has been the most profitable team against

1190
00:57:22,760 --> 00:57:24,560
Speaker 3: the spread over the past two seasons, twelve and three

1191
00:57:24,560 --> 00:57:28,520
Speaker 3: against the spread, nine straight covers against non FCS teams.

1192
00:57:29,400 --> 00:57:33,040
Speaker 3: But give me the basically the option ball State team

1193
00:57:33,240 --> 00:57:37,120
Speaker 3: at home. Yeah, Ohio cost us last week. But Bowlingred

1194
00:57:37,160 --> 00:57:39,720
Speaker 3: stole was covered with a pick six, a tip pick six,

1195
00:57:40,520 --> 00:57:42,919
Speaker 3: another pick in the red zone, and then Drew Pine

1196
00:57:42,920 --> 00:57:45,720
Speaker 3: gets hurt out is out for a drive. The backup

1197
00:57:45,800 --> 00:57:49,080
Speaker 3: comes in fumbles, it leads to a short field touchdown

1198
00:57:49,560 --> 00:57:51,640
Speaker 3: like just massive swings. In that game, Bowling Green had

1199
00:57:51,680 --> 00:57:53,760
Speaker 3: three hundred yards in the first half with Drew Pine.

1200
00:57:54,040 --> 00:57:56,320
Speaker 3: They were gashing them a well. Then Pine came back in.

1201
00:57:56,400 --> 00:57:57,760
Speaker 3: He was hobbled the rest of the way. They blitz

1202
00:57:57,840 --> 00:58:01,160
Speaker 3: and he couldn't do anything about it. Mobile quarterback running game.

1203
00:58:01,680 --> 00:58:03,960
Speaker 3: Shorten this game off the by give me ball State

1204
00:58:04,000 --> 00:58:05,760
Speaker 3: anything over two touchdowns put it on the.

1205
00:58:05,720 --> 00:58:08,080
Speaker 2: Board against each other. I'm gonna take Ohio fourteen and

1206
00:58:08,120 --> 00:58:09,520
Speaker 2: a half. That's the number of drives I had.

1207
00:58:09,600 --> 00:58:11,120
Speaker 3: Baby, By the way, I had to head I'm three

1208
00:58:11,160 --> 00:58:13,360
Speaker 3: and one this year withson to not win the SEC.

1209
00:58:13,520 --> 00:58:14,800
Speaker 3: So you need this one in the ages.

1210
00:58:14,840 --> 00:58:16,400
Speaker 2: I like the bobs here. I mean they're I mean

1211
00:58:16,440 --> 00:58:18,400
Speaker 2: they've played a tougher strength to schedule, They've got a

1212
00:58:18,440 --> 00:58:21,440
Speaker 2: top ten defense as far as defensive finishing drives. The

1213
00:58:21,520 --> 00:58:23,960
Speaker 2: ball State offense in this option offense is still bottom

1214
00:58:24,000 --> 00:58:25,320
Speaker 2: ten nationally in rushing success.

1215
00:58:25,400 --> 00:58:25,520
Speaker 1: Right.

1216
00:58:25,560 --> 00:58:27,240
Speaker 2: It's I mean they may be doing something a little

1217
00:58:27,840 --> 00:58:30,439
Speaker 2: funky with a triple option, but it's not getting anything done.

1218
00:58:30,480 --> 00:58:33,240
Speaker 2: They're heavy rushing sixty seven percent. You look at the

1219
00:58:33,240 --> 00:58:36,240
Speaker 2: Ohio offense, like I said, stronger strength to schedule, their

1220
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:39,120
Speaker 2: top twenty five and overall EPA and top thirty five

1221
00:58:39,160 --> 00:58:41,040
Speaker 2: in quality drives. They're gonna get it down the field.

1222
00:58:41,120 --> 00:58:43,600
Speaker 2: And I mean ball States bottom ten and allowing quality

1223
00:58:43,680 --> 00:58:46,680
Speaker 2: drives on defense. I just I don't see Ohio having

1224
00:58:46,760 --> 00:58:48,680
Speaker 2: that many problems here. So and I make it fifteen

1225
00:58:48,680 --> 00:58:50,320
Speaker 2: and a half. So we'll go ahead and go ahead

1226
00:58:50,320 --> 00:58:52,360
Speaker 2: and go ahead to head. I had to add, baby, we.

1227
00:58:52,640 --> 00:58:59,840
Speaker 3: Can't see very good, gosh, very bad.

1228
00:59:00,200 --> 00:59:00,400
Speaker 2: God.

1229
00:59:03,800 --> 00:59:09,280
Speaker 3: We I've going UAB against the Army. This Army team

1230
00:59:09,320 --> 00:59:11,480
Speaker 3: is way down, like their tackles are way down. They

1231
00:59:11,480 --> 00:59:15,040
Speaker 3: don't have Bryson Daly at quarterback. Their defense has has

1232
00:59:15,080 --> 00:59:17,680
Speaker 3: been playing without their nose tackle and in total nine

1233
00:59:17,720 --> 00:59:20,320
Speaker 3: of the top fifteen snap counters from last year. This

1234
00:59:20,520 --> 00:59:22,840
Speaker 3: UAB offense is good. I know they're gonna be without

1235
00:59:22,880 --> 00:59:24,680
Speaker 3: Cody Millener, one of the better receivers, but they were

1236
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:27,040
Speaker 3: still fine against Tennessee. They're coming off of a bye

1237
00:59:27,080 --> 00:59:30,160
Speaker 3: week here, Why is that important? Whether defensive coordinator came

1238
00:59:30,200 --> 00:59:32,400
Speaker 3: from air Force, he knows the option. They already faced

1239
00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:35,200
Speaker 3: the Service Academy earlier this year. And even if they

1240
00:59:35,280 --> 00:59:38,880
Speaker 3: can't slow down Army, they can max scores here. I

1241
00:59:39,040 --> 00:59:41,720
Speaker 3: like YOUAB plus seven plus seven and a half. Either

1242
00:59:41,760 --> 00:59:42,240
Speaker 3: one's fine.

1243
00:59:42,440 --> 00:59:45,160
Speaker 2: I just don't see how Army stops them from scoring.

1244
00:59:45,400 --> 00:59:47,840
Speaker 2: Like I'm trying to make a case against you, and

1245
00:59:47,920 --> 00:59:51,960
Speaker 2: I can't. Now. Uab's defense is horrific. But without the

1246
00:59:52,040 --> 00:59:54,960
Speaker 2: pieces that Army has on offense, then I mean, how

1247
00:59:55,040 --> 00:59:57,280
Speaker 2: much how much is that worth? I mean it is

1248
00:59:57,360 --> 00:59:59,120
Speaker 2: a is Army still plug and player?

1249
00:59:59,240 --> 00:59:59,480
Speaker 3: Is it now?

1250
00:59:59,600 --> 01:00:02,120
Speaker 2: Quarterback dependent? With the kind of offensive style that they run.

1251
01:00:02,400 --> 01:00:04,680
Speaker 3: They missed and the tackles are so important in that

1252
01:00:04,720 --> 01:00:06,960
Speaker 3: offense for communication and calling. I think their tackles are

1253
01:00:07,000 --> 01:00:08,920
Speaker 3: way down. Their offensive line is way down from the

1254
01:00:09,000 --> 01:00:12,200
Speaker 3: from the unit that won the Joe Moore Award, and

1255
01:00:12,280 --> 01:00:14,720
Speaker 3: they're they're line coach is now coaching Central Michigan and

1256
01:00:14,920 --> 01:00:16,600
Speaker 3: this defense has taken a step back as well. So

1257
01:00:16,720 --> 01:00:18,080
Speaker 3: like even if they can't get stops, and I think

1258
01:00:18,080 --> 01:00:19,440
Speaker 3: you AB might be able to get some stops, Like

1259
01:00:19,640 --> 01:00:22,560
Speaker 3: they were fighted against Navy at times, and they now

1260
01:00:22,560 --> 01:00:24,920
Speaker 3: they have two weeks to prepare. They have a defensive

1261
01:00:24,960 --> 01:00:27,880
Speaker 3: quardator knows the option they so then they've already faced

1262
01:00:27,880 --> 01:00:29,720
Speaker 3: the Service Academy. So I think there's a lot of

1263
01:00:29,760 --> 01:00:32,680
Speaker 3: intangibles here working for UAB. Kidnam will move the ball

1264
01:00:33,000 --> 01:00:35,680
Speaker 3: against this Army team is not getting any pressure either,

1265
01:00:35,920 --> 01:00:37,120
Speaker 3: and they're not gonna be able to cover on the

1266
01:00:37,200 --> 01:00:40,360
Speaker 3: back end. They lost eighteen of their twenty five sacks

1267
01:00:40,400 --> 01:00:42,560
Speaker 3: from last year. A couple of guys went to Power

1268
01:00:42,640 --> 01:00:44,040
Speaker 3: five teams. So I like the Blazers.

1269
01:00:44,200 --> 01:00:46,200
Speaker 2: So officially I'm not going to join you, but I

1270
01:00:46,200 --> 01:00:48,600
Speaker 2: would take a UAB team total over. I can't trust

1271
01:00:48,600 --> 01:00:51,760
Speaker 2: the UAB defense that got throttled by Akron. I mean,

1272
01:00:51,840 --> 01:00:52,640
Speaker 2: our Army could.

1273
01:00:52,880 --> 01:00:54,880
Speaker 3: Lighting points for the UAB at that game. You guys

1274
01:00:54,920 --> 01:00:57,640
Speaker 3: are all running to bet UAB as a favor. Now

1275
01:00:57,680 --> 01:00:59,400
Speaker 3: you won't bet them as a doll. You bet them

1276
01:00:59,440 --> 01:01:02,439
Speaker 3: as a dog, not as a favorite. Cat them to score.

1277
01:01:02,520 --> 01:01:06,360
Speaker 3: That's what they did against Tennessee. All right, you Aby's

1278
01:01:06,360 --> 01:01:09,360
Speaker 3: treated me well this year, So I'm now team Trent

1279
01:01:09,480 --> 01:01:12,320
Speaker 3: Dover until they don't cover the team of one.

1280
01:01:13,000 --> 01:01:15,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, if you want to be a fire breather, make

1281
01:01:15,040 --> 01:01:16,080
Speaker 2: sure you sign up today.

1282
01:01:16,680 --> 01:01:20,360
Speaker 3: Next up, we're going with Wyoming against UNLV. I think

1283
01:01:20,360 --> 01:01:22,040
Speaker 3: the whole world knew I was gonna fade Wyoming. I

1284
01:01:22,160 --> 01:01:23,720
Speaker 3: paid Uno the year. You n to be the most

1285
01:01:23,760 --> 01:01:26,480
Speaker 3: fraudulent four and OHO team in the country. They have

1286
01:01:26,640 --> 01:01:33,520
Speaker 3: beat Sam Houston an FCS school UCLA barely and then Mining,

1287
01:01:33,560 --> 01:01:36,440
Speaker 3: Ohio and again they're gonna get blown out in until

1288
01:01:36,520 --> 01:01:39,840
Speaker 3: minue quarterback got hurt and still with the backup, they

1289
01:01:39,880 --> 01:01:42,080
Speaker 3: were about to win and then they fumbled. This UNB

1290
01:01:42,160 --> 01:01:44,560
Speaker 3: team is a complete fraud. Now you're going to Lardie.

1291
01:01:44,960 --> 01:01:48,480
Speaker 3: It's gonna be windy cold at night for this indoor

1292
01:01:48,880 --> 01:01:51,600
Speaker 3: u NLB team. UNV can't stop the run. Wyoming has

1293
01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:54,320
Speaker 3: found something with this freshman running back. He's gonna run

1294
01:01:54,320 --> 01:01:57,800
Speaker 3: all over them. This it's gonna be your classic Wyoming

1295
01:01:58,520 --> 01:02:04,200
Speaker 3: upset win at home. The fraud of UNLV gets exposed.

1296
01:02:04,800 --> 01:02:07,040
Speaker 3: Keep an eye out for Samuel Harris as freshman back.

1297
01:02:07,320 --> 01:02:09,240
Speaker 3: If he had nineteen carries against Colorado, you know you

1298
01:02:09,320 --> 01:02:12,160
Speaker 3: have only had eighteen over the first three weeks. He's

1299
01:02:12,160 --> 01:02:13,960
Speaker 3: averaging seven yards per carry. I think I'll have a

1300
01:02:14,360 --> 01:02:16,520
Speaker 3: really productive day. You and these outside the top hundred

1301
01:02:16,560 --> 01:02:19,160
Speaker 3: rush success rate, bottom ten in rush EPA, and they've

1302
01:02:19,200 --> 01:02:23,320
Speaker 3: played clowns, by the way, UNLV extremely fortunate on late downs,

1303
01:02:23,320 --> 01:02:26,320
Speaker 3: so both sides the ball, third downs they've converted fifty

1304
01:02:26,320 --> 01:02:29,560
Speaker 3: two percent. Opponents are twenty one percent. But they're basically

1305
01:02:29,560 --> 01:02:31,520
Speaker 3: they're outside the top hundred and like early down stuff.

1306
01:02:31,640 --> 01:02:34,240
Speaker 3: Even though they played clowns, they're plus six and turnovers.

1307
01:02:34,520 --> 01:02:38,560
Speaker 3: I mean, it gets no more fraudulent than UNOV. So yeah,

1308
01:02:38,640 --> 01:02:41,360
Speaker 3: gimme Wyoming. By the way, Wyoming thirteen and one against

1309
01:02:41,360 --> 01:02:44,080
Speaker 3: the spread, ninety three percent. As a home conference dog

1310
01:02:44,120 --> 01:02:46,400
Speaker 3: of more than a field goal over the past ten years,

1311
01:02:46,560 --> 01:02:48,920
Speaker 3: they're covering by twelve points per game in that spot.

1312
01:02:49,120 --> 01:02:51,800
Speaker 3: They've won eight of those fourteen games outright with an

1313
01:02:51,800 --> 01:02:56,240
Speaker 3: average spread of eleven. Classic Laradise, give me the Pokes.

1314
01:02:57,040 --> 01:03:01,280
Speaker 2: No, No, Wyoming cannot defend the run at all. I mean, look,

1315
01:03:01,640 --> 01:03:04,720
Speaker 2: is UNLV a fraud. Yes, in two.

1316
01:03:04,720 --> 01:03:06,440
Speaker 3: Weeks you want to back do you want to back them?

1317
01:03:06,480 --> 01:03:08,320
Speaker 3: Laying points on the road and two.

1318
01:03:08,240 --> 01:03:11,120
Speaker 2: Weeks I project Boise by eleven and I would take

1319
01:03:11,120 --> 01:03:13,840
Speaker 2: that all the way up to eighteen, maybe twenty one.

1320
01:03:14,640 --> 01:03:16,280
Speaker 2: That's how bad I think. That's how much I think

1321
01:03:16,400 --> 01:03:19,000
Speaker 2: UNLV is frauds. But at the same time, I'm going

1322
01:03:19,040 --> 01:03:20,680
Speaker 2: to pass on this because I want UNLV to eke

1323
01:03:20,800 --> 01:03:22,840
Speaker 2: this out and then I want them to eke out

1324
01:03:22,920 --> 01:03:25,920
Speaker 2: next week. Who was it? I just saw that they

1325
01:03:25,960 --> 01:03:28,959
Speaker 2: play next week, Like, I need a couple of soft

1326
01:03:29,080 --> 01:03:29,640
Speaker 2: victories here.

1327
01:03:29,680 --> 01:03:31,320
Speaker 3: We're gonna miss it. They're gonna lose this game.

1328
01:03:31,760 --> 01:03:34,640
Speaker 2: Air Force. They're hosting air Force next week, right, and

1329
01:03:34,760 --> 01:03:37,880
Speaker 2: that defense that's not even a JV defense.

1330
01:03:38,200 --> 01:03:40,000
Speaker 3: By the way, the Air Force. I can't even play

1331
01:03:40,080 --> 01:03:41,800
Speaker 3: under fifty two and a half just because the Air

1332
01:03:41,880 --> 01:03:44,520
Speaker 3: Force their arena team. Now I was shocked. I made

1333
01:03:44,520 --> 01:03:45,439
Speaker 3: it fifty one and a half.

1334
01:03:46,480 --> 01:03:48,320
Speaker 2: So I'm passing here. I need UNLV to had two

1335
01:03:48,360 --> 01:03:50,360
Speaker 2: soft wins and then we're gonna hammer Bois. Like, if

1336
01:03:50,360 --> 01:03:53,200
Speaker 2: you get a look aheadline on that somewhere Boise UNLB

1337
01:03:53,440 --> 01:03:54,200
Speaker 2: in two weeks.

1338
01:03:54,720 --> 01:03:59,760
Speaker 3: Laradise staty all right, last one Nevada plus fourteen at Fresno.

1339
01:04:00,240 --> 01:04:02,800
Speaker 3: This is the perfect opportunity to buy the wolf back

1340
01:04:02,840 --> 01:04:05,440
Speaker 3: coming off of a bye for the conference opener. They

1341
01:04:05,480 --> 01:04:07,720
Speaker 3: had the presents off of bye two. But Nevada has

1342
01:04:07,760 --> 01:04:09,640
Speaker 3: the better coaching staff, in my opinion, the better head coach,

1343
01:04:09,720 --> 01:04:11,400
Speaker 3: so I think the bye week will be more beneficial

1344
01:04:11,440 --> 01:04:13,280
Speaker 3: for them. You want to talk about teams that are

1345
01:04:13,320 --> 01:04:16,560
Speaker 3: living different lives. One has been extremely lucky, one has

1346
01:04:16,600 --> 01:04:19,320
Speaker 3: been extremely unlucky. So when you look at the records

1347
01:04:19,360 --> 01:04:20,960
Speaker 3: of this team, it might look like four and one

1348
01:04:21,000 --> 01:04:23,240
Speaker 3: Fresno verse one and three Nevada. It easily could be

1349
01:04:23,280 --> 01:04:26,400
Speaker 3: two and three Fresno verse three and one Nevada. Fresno

1350
01:04:26,480 --> 01:04:29,520
Speaker 3: has their last two wins. They trailed in the fourth quarter,

1351
01:04:29,920 --> 01:04:32,120
Speaker 3: they got out gained. They got out gained by two

1352
01:04:32,200 --> 01:04:34,640
Speaker 3: hundred and twenty yards at Oregon State. And then you

1353
01:04:34,800 --> 01:04:38,600
Speaker 3: have Nevada who's up thirteen tozering late in the fourth

1354
01:04:38,680 --> 01:04:41,520
Speaker 3: quarter against Middle Tennessee, gave up two, gave up two

1355
01:04:41,600 --> 01:04:43,880
Speaker 3: late touchdown drives that were sandwiched between miss field goal

1356
01:04:43,920 --> 01:04:47,720
Speaker 3: and miss field goal and then fumble. They also outgained

1357
01:04:47,760 --> 01:04:50,360
Speaker 3: Western Kentucky led in the fourth quarter in that game,

1358
01:04:50,640 --> 01:04:52,840
Speaker 3: so this easily could be two and three Fresno verse

1359
01:04:52,840 --> 01:04:55,160
Speaker 3: three and one Nevada. This is a big number for

1360
01:04:55,160 --> 01:04:57,439
Speaker 3: a presdent of cover a matchup of two slow paced

1361
01:04:57,480 --> 01:04:59,800
Speaker 3: teams that want to run the ball. Nevada has been

1362
01:04:59,840 --> 01:05:02,040
Speaker 3: on absolutely dreadful in the red zone, but I trust

1363
01:05:02,800 --> 01:05:04,880
Speaker 3: Choke to fix that. They were great there last year,

1364
01:05:05,520 --> 01:05:08,840
Speaker 3: maybe some positive aggression in that aspect, so they were

1365
01:05:09,320 --> 01:05:12,200
Speaker 3: this is this is just way too many points in

1366
01:05:12,240 --> 01:05:14,520
Speaker 3: which should be an uglier game. And for what it's worth,

1367
01:05:14,560 --> 01:05:16,520
Speaker 3: since two thousand and five, no team in college football

1368
01:05:16,520 --> 01:05:19,040
Speaker 3: has cost more betters. Is a double digit home conference

1369
01:05:19,160 --> 01:05:22,840
Speaker 3: favorite than Fresno State. They're thirteen twenty seven and one

1370
01:05:22,880 --> 01:05:25,840
Speaker 3: against the spread thirty two percent, failing to cover by

1371
01:05:25,920 --> 01:05:28,640
Speaker 3: nearly a touchdown per game. No one's afraid of the Valley.

1372
01:05:29,080 --> 01:05:32,640
Speaker 3: Give me the wolf Pack plus fourteen Chubb a party season.

1373
01:05:33,120 --> 01:05:35,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've already bet Nevada plus fourteen if you want

1374
01:05:35,840 --> 01:05:37,400
Speaker 2: to put it on the board of agreement. I also

1375
01:05:37,560 --> 01:05:39,000
Speaker 2: early in the week, one of the first hits I

1376
01:05:39,080 --> 01:05:42,560
Speaker 2: took was under here very slow pace of play.

1377
01:05:43,000 --> 01:05:44,400
Speaker 3: I mean you want of those talking like this. One

1378
01:05:44,400 --> 01:05:46,720
Speaker 3: team's been lucky, the other team hasn't. Like Party is

1379
01:05:47,160 --> 01:05:50,040
Speaker 3: one to six touchdown interception rate with a two to

1380
01:05:50,160 --> 01:05:53,480
Speaker 3: seven big time throw to turner worthy play rate. Warner

1381
01:05:54,240 --> 01:05:57,600
Speaker 3: has a worse ratio of big time so as a

1382
01:05:57,600 --> 01:05:59,400
Speaker 3: turn of worthy plays, but he has five touchdowns and

1383
01:05:59,440 --> 01:06:02,800
Speaker 3: five intercept that's it. That these two teams are not

1384
01:06:03,040 --> 01:06:05,000
Speaker 3: this far apart, and this game should be ugly, and like,

1385
01:06:05,040 --> 01:06:07,080
Speaker 3: I agree with you, low scoring, So I put Nevada

1386
01:06:07,120 --> 01:06:10,600
Speaker 3: on the board. All right, that'll do it for trash Purdue, UAB,

1387
01:06:11,360 --> 01:06:15,919
Speaker 3: ball State, Wyoming and Nevada. Let's get it done. I've

1388
01:06:15,960 --> 01:06:17,240
Speaker 3: got some Friday night lights.

1389
01:06:18,040 --> 01:06:20,880
Speaker 2: That's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts.

1390
01:06:21,720 --> 01:06:22,000
Speaker 1: Let's go.

1391
01:06:23,920 --> 01:06:27,720
Speaker 3: Through these quickly. Western Kentucky at Delaware. I mean Western

1392
01:06:27,800 --> 01:06:31,080
Speaker 3: Kentucky continues to get lucky week in and week out.

1393
01:06:31,440 --> 01:06:33,360
Speaker 3: Delaware looks like they might be the best team in

1394
01:06:33,400 --> 01:06:35,680
Speaker 3: the conference and they're not eligible to win it. Lean

1395
01:06:35,760 --> 01:06:39,040
Speaker 3: Delaware there especially under three. Charlotte at South Florida. I

1396
01:06:39,520 --> 01:06:42,480
Speaker 3: a't South Florida or nothing. Charlotte has more injuries. I

1397
01:06:42,560 --> 01:06:45,080
Speaker 3: think South Florida can name it here New Mexico at

1398
01:06:45,120 --> 01:06:47,640
Speaker 3: Santase State. I actually might buy the buy the dip

1399
01:06:47,720 --> 01:06:50,520
Speaker 3: on Santase State. I got unlucky last week against Staff

1400
01:06:50,600 --> 01:06:52,480
Speaker 3: against Stanford. I know you disagree there. I'm curious to

1401
01:06:52,480 --> 01:06:54,480
Speaker 3: hear your thoughts. West Virginia at b YU. I'm close

1402
01:06:54,520 --> 01:06:57,439
Speaker 3: to market, but with all the West Virginia injuries, it's

1403
01:06:57,800 --> 01:07:00,439
Speaker 3: I can't play them. It would be by U or nothing.

1404
01:07:00,520 --> 01:07:00,680
Speaker 1: There.

1405
01:07:01,160 --> 01:07:03,680
Speaker 3: Any thoughts on those before we get to your ass Dex.

1406
01:07:04,320 --> 01:07:06,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, Delaware, I think they're gonna own the line of

1407
01:07:06,960 --> 01:07:09,480
Speaker 2: scrimmage with the rush. That could be the reason that

1408
01:07:09,560 --> 01:07:11,120
Speaker 2: you can get under if you can find sixty two

1409
01:07:11,120 --> 01:07:13,240
Speaker 2: out there. I think under sixty two that's the key

1410
01:07:13,280 --> 01:07:15,520
Speaker 2: where it's gonna pop. But you know, these teams are

1411
01:07:15,560 --> 01:07:18,480
Speaker 2: really fast, but at the same time needed teams can tackle.

1412
01:07:18,520 --> 01:07:20,200
Speaker 2: But I think Delaware is going to really rush on

1413
01:07:20,280 --> 01:07:22,240
Speaker 2: them and own the line of scrimmage. I even wrote

1414
01:07:22,280 --> 01:07:24,920
Speaker 2: it in my notes here. I expect the USF line

1415
01:07:24,960 --> 01:07:26,320
Speaker 2: to get twenty eight and a half and for the

1416
01:07:26,400 --> 01:07:28,520
Speaker 2: market to be resistance. But the bulls are going to

1417
01:07:28,520 --> 01:07:30,080
Speaker 2: be able to name it. Same thing you said. I

1418
01:07:30,120 --> 01:07:31,840
Speaker 2: think the bulls are be able to name whatever score

1419
01:07:31,880 --> 01:07:34,920
Speaker 2: that they want the West Virginia BYU. Like, you know,

1420
01:07:36,520 --> 01:07:37,760
Speaker 2: the quarterback situation is.

1421
01:07:37,800 --> 01:07:40,400
Speaker 3: Just dire here, right yeah, market for a couple of weeks.

1422
01:07:40,480 --> 01:07:43,000
Speaker 3: He goes out James Pachmar by the way for a

1423
01:07:43,160 --> 01:07:43,800
Speaker 3: true freshman.

1424
01:07:44,080 --> 01:07:46,600
Speaker 2: Jalen Henderson's out, I think his legs were gonna be

1425
01:07:46,600 --> 01:07:48,960
Speaker 2: worth something. Red shirt freshman Khalil Wilkins is going to

1426
01:07:49,000 --> 01:07:50,680
Speaker 2: get the start here. He rushed for thirty nine yards

1427
01:07:50,720 --> 01:07:53,360
Speaker 2: against Utah in the second half. His backup is a

1428
01:07:53,400 --> 01:07:56,120
Speaker 2: true freshman Scotty Fox for West Virginia.

1429
01:07:56,240 --> 01:07:58,960
Speaker 3: Like West people was decimated. The injuries a wide receive

1430
01:07:59,000 --> 01:07:59,720
Speaker 3: injuries all over it.

1431
01:08:00,760 --> 01:08:03,080
Speaker 2: Because this Khlil Wilkins kid can run a little bit.

1432
01:08:03,080 --> 01:08:04,560
Speaker 2: I'd be tempted to take West Virginia if I go

1433
01:08:04,560 --> 01:08:05,920
Speaker 2: as a twenty one, but I don't think I'd be

1434
01:08:05,960 --> 01:08:08,600
Speaker 2: tempted enough to play it. I don't know that's tough.

1435
01:08:09,040 --> 01:08:11,360
Speaker 2: New Mexico. San Jose State the over. I think San

1436
01:08:11,440 --> 01:08:14,160
Speaker 2: Jose State they're just dead last and defending the pass.

1437
01:08:14,360 --> 01:08:16,960
Speaker 2: There's no havoc this. I mean you call you're calling

1438
01:08:16,960 --> 01:08:18,960
Speaker 2: air Force and arena team. Does the Air Force in

1439
01:08:19,000 --> 01:08:21,599
Speaker 2: San Jose State play each other? What's that score going

1440
01:08:21,640 --> 01:08:22,479
Speaker 2: to be a thousand.

1441
01:08:22,680 --> 01:08:24,040
Speaker 3: I think they play each other total.

1442
01:08:24,200 --> 01:08:26,519
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean air force total in the eighties, and

1443
01:08:26,640 --> 01:08:29,040
Speaker 2: then the offense runs twenty four seconds per play. I

1444
01:08:29,120 --> 01:08:30,759
Speaker 2: mean San Jose say, it's extremely fast.

1445
01:08:31,160 --> 01:08:33,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, imagine the air force total in the eighties. Yeah,

1446
01:08:33,400 --> 01:08:35,400
Speaker 3: they're at San Jose State early November.

1447
01:08:36,360 --> 01:08:38,240
Speaker 2: Let me see it by I don't know how. I'm

1448
01:08:38,280 --> 01:08:41,000
Speaker 2: only projecting fifty six points, but yeah, the defenses and

1449
01:08:41,080 --> 01:08:42,760
Speaker 2: those two teams are horrible. But yeah, I like to

1450
01:08:42,840 --> 01:08:45,639
Speaker 2: over there, New Mexico, San Jose State. You are about

1451
01:08:45,680 --> 01:08:48,839
Speaker 2: to enter a world unlike any you've ever seen before,

1452
01:08:49,680 --> 01:08:53,479
Speaker 2: where the beautiful, the brutal, and the brave all meat.

1453
01:09:09,080 --> 01:09:12,640
Speaker 3: Going nowhere fast. San Diego State hosting Colorado State just

1454
01:09:12,760 --> 01:09:15,040
Speaker 3: looks like it could be another ugly one. Any thoughts

1455
01:09:15,080 --> 01:09:16,000
Speaker 3: are on the guys.

1456
01:09:16,040 --> 01:09:17,720
Speaker 2: Over forty and a half. I'd take over forty one

1457
01:09:17,760 --> 01:09:20,080
Speaker 2: if you can find it. Colorado State has zero pass

1458
01:09:20,200 --> 01:09:22,280
Speaker 2: rush and a coverage great outside of the top one hundred.

1459
01:09:22,280 --> 01:09:25,120
Speaker 2: And I said this two weeks ago. Jaden Dinegal, he

1460
01:09:25,280 --> 01:09:28,200
Speaker 2: just wants to throw deep. San Diego State is bottom

1461
01:09:28,280 --> 01:09:30,880
Speaker 2: ten and passing success. Right, they're top twenty five and

1462
01:09:30,920 --> 01:09:33,519
Speaker 2: pass explosives. I mean, that is just one of the

1463
01:09:33,600 --> 01:09:36,639
Speaker 2: more crazy things I've ever seen. And Colorado State runs

1464
01:09:37,040 --> 01:09:39,040
Speaker 2: at about twenty five seconds per play, So we're over

1465
01:09:39,080 --> 01:09:39,880
Speaker 2: the key of forty one.

1466
01:09:40,439 --> 01:09:43,639
Speaker 3: I can't chin you there, right, favorite favorite, it's called

1467
01:09:43,680 --> 01:09:48,000
Speaker 3: the over dog parlay. I'm gonna go with Arizona minus twenty.

1468
01:09:48,439 --> 01:09:51,400
Speaker 3: Pick this out there. Oklahoma State is the worst I

1469
01:09:51,479 --> 01:09:53,960
Speaker 3: have them ranked. I would have them tomorrow on a

1470
01:09:54,000 --> 01:09:57,080
Speaker 3: neutral field underdog to Western Michigan. That's how bad I

1471
01:09:57,120 --> 01:09:59,439
Speaker 3: have them. They are. They are on a different They're

1472
01:09:59,479 --> 01:10:01,599
Speaker 3: the worst all and the worst defense you adjust for opponent.

1473
01:10:01,840 --> 01:10:03,719
Speaker 3: They're all the way with all the power four teams.

1474
01:10:03,720 --> 01:10:06,840
Speaker 3: They're all the way by themselves with both It is pathetic.

1475
01:10:07,080 --> 01:10:11,479
Speaker 3: Now they fired their defensive coordinator. You know who's gonna

1476
01:10:11,479 --> 01:10:14,679
Speaker 3: take over. It's an offensive quality control coach who spent

1477
01:10:14,760 --> 01:10:17,040
Speaker 3: the last four years coaching high school. This is the

1478
01:10:17,120 --> 01:10:19,840
Speaker 3: offensive quality control coach. I wouldn't be surprised if there's

1479
01:10:19,840 --> 01:10:21,639
Speaker 3: more portal legs it's before this game. They are they're

1480
01:10:21,680 --> 01:10:24,679
Speaker 3: starting safety already left. This is a disaster and they're

1481
01:10:24,680 --> 01:10:27,320
Speaker 3: gonna go fast. Arizona should be able to do whatever

1482
01:10:27,320 --> 01:10:29,120
Speaker 3: they want. I expect to focus stuffer here for the

1483
01:10:29,200 --> 01:10:31,640
Speaker 3: last week, and this has block written all over I

1484
01:10:31,680 --> 01:10:35,240
Speaker 3: don't know this team is so bad. It's this has

1485
01:10:35,760 --> 01:10:38,800
Speaker 3: Arizona fifty eight nothing written all over it.

1486
01:10:39,120 --> 01:10:40,840
Speaker 2: A and M's the easiest overdog of the week.

1487
01:10:41,040 --> 01:10:44,320
Speaker 3: Yeah, we talked about it, talk about the game around Arizona, N,

1488
01:10:44,360 --> 01:10:45,400
Speaker 3: A and M. All Right, so i' give you time

1489
01:10:45,439 --> 01:10:47,720
Speaker 3: to think about your underdog money on parlay. So let's

1490
01:10:47,720 --> 01:10:54,240
Speaker 3: go to the favorite moneyline underdog turning good weekends into

1491
01:10:54,439 --> 01:10:55,400
Speaker 3: great weekends.

1492
01:10:56,080 --> 01:10:58,559
Speaker 2: It's time for the money line parlay.

1493
01:10:59,360 --> 01:11:01,519
Speaker 3: We are four and eight on these this year, overall

1494
01:11:01,640 --> 01:11:04,639
Speaker 3: eighty nine one thirty five plus sixteen point seven units.

1495
01:11:05,040 --> 01:11:09,840
Speaker 3: I'm going Farida State, Mario, Mario, please Mario for me?

1496
01:11:11,000 --> 01:11:11,519
Speaker 3: Where you going.

1497
01:11:11,960 --> 01:11:14,680
Speaker 2: I'm trying to make a decision between Bandy Purdue or

1498
01:11:14,760 --> 01:11:17,840
Speaker 2: going super short with South Bama South Bamba. Okay, we're

1499
01:11:17,840 --> 01:11:20,040
Speaker 2: gonna go South Bama. Troy is a complete fraud lost

1500
01:11:20,120 --> 01:11:23,040
Speaker 2: box score against Buffalo, lost two other game that they

1501
01:11:23,160 --> 01:11:26,160
Speaker 2: are a broken team, completely broken South Alabama.

1502
01:11:26,280 --> 01:11:30,200
Speaker 3: All right, We're going with the Jaguars and the Seminoles.

1503
01:11:30,840 --> 01:11:32,559
Speaker 3: That'll do it for us. We'll be back with our

1504
01:11:32,600 --> 01:11:35,639
Speaker 3: recap episode on Monday Morning, featuring the best of your

1505
01:11:35,680 --> 01:11:39,519
Speaker 3: deranged voicemails nine to five nine bad beat, don't forget

1506
01:11:39,560 --> 01:11:41,479
Speaker 3: about it, called and yell at us for all of

1507
01:11:41,520 --> 01:11:44,599
Speaker 3: our bad picks, and make sure you subscribe on Subscribe,

1508
01:11:44,680 --> 01:11:47,000
Speaker 3: subscribe to a friend, tone enemy, and if you want

1509
01:11:47,040 --> 01:11:48,639
Speaker 3: to tell some of the bets we discussed today, look

1510
01:11:48,680 --> 01:11:50,679
Speaker 3: for the quick slipped link in the video and podcast

1511
01:11:50,720 --> 01:11:54,120
Speaker 3: description or visit actionwork dot com slasht now. Make sure

1512
01:11:54,120 --> 01:11:57,640
Speaker 3: you check out at playbook. Thanks to our sponsor DraftKings,

1513
01:11:58,400 --> 01:12:00,479
Speaker 3: Thanks to Colin for joining me. Thanks to our producer

1514
01:12:00,560 --> 01:12:02,400
Speaker 3: David on the back end. Most importantly, thanks to all

1515
01:12:02,400 --> 01:12:03,000
Speaker 3: of you for tuning in.

1516
01:12:03,120 --> 01:12:03,760
Speaker 2: We love all of you.

1517
01:12:04,160 --> 01:12:08,960
Speaker 3: Let's have a big weekend. We'll see Saturday morning, ten

1518
01:12:09,040 --> 01:12:10,720
Speaker 3: thirty am Euston for the live show. Make sure you

1519
01:12:10,800 --> 01:12:13,320
Speaker 3: check out the group of five guys in their episode.

1520
01:12:13,920 --> 01:12:16,920
Speaker 3: But thanks again for tuning in. We'll catch you o later.

1521
01:12:17,080 --> 01:12:38,240
Speaker 2: Cheers, peace Out. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1522
01:12:38,680 --> 01:12:41,479
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1523
01:12:41,800 --> 01:12:44,400
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1524
01:12:44,520 --> 01:12:45,240
Speaker 2: hundred Gambler