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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds and Larry David Rose, Bill Maher's meeting

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Speaker 1: with Trump as my dinner with Adolf.

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Speaker 2: We have such a great show for you today.

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Speaker 1: The New Republic's Mike Tamaski tries to make sense of

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Speaker 1: where Trump's lawlessness is headed. Then we'll talk to the

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Speaker 1: author of the Strength in Numbers newsletter, g Elliott Morris,

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Speaker 1: about what polls can tell us about Trump's agenda.

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Speaker 2: But first the news.

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Speaker 3: So, Molly, there's a million reports out that Pete Haiksith

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Speaker 3: is going to have to resign. I'm always skeptical of

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Speaker 3: those in US, are you? But we do have the

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Speaker 3: first Republican calling for him to resign, and it's the

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Speaker 3: guy with the most Republican name of all time, Don Bacon.

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Speaker 1: So Bacon has done this before. Bacon is sort of

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Speaker 1: the Jeff Flake twenty twenty five. He calls Hegseth an

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Speaker 1: amateur person, which for a weekend television hosts, that's not

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Speaker 1: very nice. He stood up for things before. Now I

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Speaker 1: want to just remind you that he is in Nebraska.

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Speaker 1: He comes from Nebraska's second congressional district. Whenever you see

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Speaker 1: a Republican standing up for something, and this is not

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Speaker 1: always true, but it is often true, you should look

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Speaker 1: at their district and find out if it's a red

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Speaker 1: district or a purple district.

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Speaker 3: A helpful thing is right on Wikipedia usually says their CPI,

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Speaker 3: which a lot of people don't know, is the Cook

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Speaker 3: Political Index, and I'll tell you how far it leans

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Speaker 3: left or right.

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Speaker 1: So Nebraska's second congressional district, which is where he comes from,

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Speaker 1: it's an R plus three, so it is not a

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Speaker 1: very Republican district. So Marjorie Taylor Green is in an

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Speaker 1: R plus nineteen and Don Bacon is in an R

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Speaker 1: plus three, and the difference between an R plus three

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Speaker 1: and an R plus nineteen is Don Bacon says things

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Speaker 1: like Donald Trump should be king. Marjorie Taylor Green says

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Speaker 1: things like Donald Trump should be God king because there's

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Speaker 1: seventeen percent more Republicans in her district. That is why

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Speaker 1: I say to you, always be suspicious of Republicans who stand.

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Speaker 2: Up, but not even that.

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Speaker 1: I mean Bacon has done that, and I think it's good,

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Speaker 1: and I think standing up to Trump is always good, and.

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Speaker 2: There's a dearth of courage right now in America.

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Speaker 1: But that said, just always be a little cynical because

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Speaker 1: these people are cowards. That said, I do think we're

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Speaker 1: going to see more standing up to Trump as his

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Speaker 1: poll numbers creator and as they crash the economy. So

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Speaker 1: I think it's very likely that you'll see more quote

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Speaker 1: unquote bravery and well it is good and we do

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Speaker 1: like it, and it may be the difference between authoritarianism

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Speaker 1: and continuing as are you know, not perfect democracy. I

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Speaker 1: do think it's worth remembering like public sentiment has changed.

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Speaker 1: The people have different incentives, structures. They are not just

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Speaker 1: doing this out of the goodness of their heart. That said,

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Speaker 1: Bacon did say that he does not think texting sensitive

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Speaker 1: or plans is something the Secretary of Defense should be doing.

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Speaker 1: By the way, this man manages three million people. This

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Speaker 1: is a humongous agency filled with a lot of important

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Speaker 1: stuff that they're doing. Also, Elon wants to fire a

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Speaker 1: huge swath of them because of Doge.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: In other bleak News, sixty Minutes, despite its weakening relevance,

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Speaker 3: has long been one of the better journalists that out

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Speaker 3: what our country has had and a long time producer

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Speaker 3: is leaving because they feel the tide turning.

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Speaker 1: On that So sixty Minutes has done some really really

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Speaker 1: important journalism, especially right now. And this producer is a

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Speaker 1: guy called Bill Owens. And every time someone does something

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Speaker 1: like this, there are not a lot of great jobs

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Speaker 1: in television journalisms. There are not a lot of jobs

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Speaker 1: in journalism period. So the fact that this guy is

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Speaker 1: leaving probably one of the best jobs in television. But

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Speaker 1: he's been there for a long time, and he's a

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Speaker 1: serious journalist. In fact, what he tells The New York

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Speaker 1: Times is so having defended this show and what we

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Speaker 1: stand for from every angle over time, with everything I could,

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Speaker 1: I'm stepping aside so the show can move forward, he

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Speaker 1: wrote in the memo, which was obtained by The Times.

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Speaker 1: Sixty Minutes has faced mounting pressure in recent months from

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Speaker 1: both President Trump, who sued CBS for ten billion dollars.

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Speaker 1: You'll ten billion dollars to get you know what, CBS

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Speaker 1: doesn't have ten billion dollars to give to Donald Trump.

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Speaker 3: Some real Austin Powers stuff right there.

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Speaker 2: Accused the program of unlawful.

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Speaker 1: And illegal behavior. And this is because I don't know

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Speaker 1: why he's mad at them.

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Speaker 2: About this. Is this because of the Harris interview where

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Speaker 2: they he felt that it was.

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Speaker 1: Edited in a way that made her look better than

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's just this is this thing with Trump.

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Speaker 1: He's an Autocrat, and you know, not all of this

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Speaker 1: makes sense or any of this, not even any of

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Speaker 1: this makes sense. So this guy, bill Owens is really

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Speaker 1: a hero to do this, to give up one of

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Speaker 1: these really best jobs in media because you don't feel

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Speaker 1: that CBS is doing what's right or that that's a

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Speaker 1: big deal. And we really do applaud him in a

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Speaker 1: world filled with cowards and a world filled with Paul Weiss's.

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Speaker 1: Don't be a Paul Weiss, be a Mark Elias, be

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Speaker 1: a Bill Owens, like, do the right thing, even if

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Speaker 1: the short term looks bad. We got to stick up

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Speaker 1: for what's right here some mind.

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Speaker 3: Now we turn to the Handmaid's Tale like portion of

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Speaker 3: our news unbelievable. The White House is presently a sessex apollo,

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Speaker 3: such as baby bonuses, menstrual cycle classes, and some other

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Speaker 3: questionable ideas to try to boost the birth rate.

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Speaker 2: So here's the problem.

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Speaker 1: For the economy to survive, we've got to keep having children,

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Speaker 1: otherwise we're going to become Japan. But the problem is,

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Speaker 1: I mean, we're probably going to become Japan anyway because

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Speaker 1: of stiflation, but we won't have the cute outfits or

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Speaker 1: any of the cool food. Will just be US with Japanese.

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Speaker 1: But no, the problem here with this is that so

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Speaker 1: Trump administration doesn't want immigrants. They hate immigration, they don't

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Speaker 1: want immigration. But the problem is the only way for

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Speaker 1: our economy to survive is to get immigrants. So instead

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Speaker 1: of just welcoming immigrants and making a path to citizenship,

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Speaker 1: which is what you would do if you were not

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Speaker 1: completely insane, they're going to try to make the white

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Speaker 1: people have babies.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 1: This is natalism, This is the whole idea is to

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Speaker 1: get more white babies. And the problem is America is

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Speaker 1: wildly expect and nobody has seen their way of life go, right.

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Speaker 1: We all feel we have less than our parents, right,

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Speaker 1: So how they're going to do this They have no

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Speaker 1: idea because nobody wants have kids. So because the really

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Speaker 1: we need old white guys to decide to get women

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Speaker 1: to have babies. So here are some of their ideas.

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Speaker 1: And I think that it's worth remembering that a lot

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Speaker 1: of this stuff has been tried in Hungary by Victor

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Speaker 1: orbon who Donald Trump wants to be. Most importantly, none

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Speaker 1: of its work there still can't get people to have kids.

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Speaker 1: And also Hungary is just disaster on every level. But

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Speaker 1: here's where we're going, Donald Trump's. Here are some of

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump's best ideas, and maybe not Donald Trump, maybe

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Speaker 1: one of his creepy friends. Five thousand dollars baby bonuses

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Speaker 1: to every woman after she delivers. That will cover about

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Speaker 1: half of the tariffs for the first year.

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Speaker 2: What else? They have?

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Speaker 1: Menstrual psycho classes, because that is not creepy at all.

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Speaker 2: There are calls on the government.

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Speaker 1: To fund programs that educate women on their menstrual cycles.

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Speaker 1: You're cutting headstart, okay, You're cutting free breakfast, You're cutting

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Speaker 1: child's care, you're cutting early whatever medicine for kids. You're

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Speaker 1: cutting food stamps, you're cutting snap, You're cutting all of

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Speaker 1: these things. But you're going to start menstrual classes.

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Speaker 2: Does anyone see how insane these are? These are insane ideas.

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Speaker 1: But I'm excited to know that Vance and Musk are

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Speaker 1: policy experts and advocates of boosting the birth rate have

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Speaker 1: been meeting with White House AIDS. That's creepy people like

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Speaker 1: Steven Miller, and they are boosting the birth rate. These

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Speaker 1: are written proposals. I mean, this is their best mind

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Speaker 1: sitting there trying, and they can just watch The Handmaid's Tail.

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Speaker 1: They don't even need to spend so much time thinking.

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Speaker 1: Just watch The Handmaid's Tale.

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Speaker 3: All I'm gonna say is they don't bring us their best.

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Speaker 1: They do not bring a service. By the way, I

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Speaker 1: think Elon himself should be able to pretty much do it.

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Speaker 3: He gets rejected a lot. I mean, you saw what

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Speaker 3: happened with him in Tiffany Fong on Twitter.

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Speaker 2: I mean, come on, yeah, yeah, yeah, that's true. Doesn't

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Speaker 2: she know the birthrate needs her?

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Speaker 3: Okay, So, speaking of other bleak Handmaid's Tale like news,

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Speaker 3: you know who I don't want having my health.

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Speaker 4: Records speak for yourself.

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Speaker 3: The guy who picks up road kill that testified that

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Speaker 3: he had a braid wor RFK Juniors watching a disease

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Speaker 3: registry to track autistic people, and he's going to use

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Speaker 3: private medical records to make it happen.

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Speaker 1: Oh, come on, it's too easy to remember that RFK

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Speaker 1: Junior is planning to tell us. He's probably going to

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Speaker 1: tell us the vaccines cause autism in the fall September

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Speaker 1: yeh time, Yeah, September again, an autism registry. I just

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Speaker 1: want to go back to this for a minute. RFK

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Speaker 1: has a worm in his brain. It's dead. The worm

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Speaker 1: is no longer eating his brain, but his brain is

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Speaker 1: not fully recovered. No, some things the guy does are

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Speaker 1: not terrible, like food coloring and organic food.

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Speaker 3: We're going to talk about a really bad one in

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Speaker 3: the moment of fuckery today.

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Speaker 1: Right, this feels like Germany nineteen thirty three, like registry tracking.

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Speaker 1: By the way, I just want to point out, like

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Speaker 1: RFK is going to do this. He's ended all of

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Speaker 1: these different programs like tracking all sorts of health stuff. Right,

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Speaker 1: They're not tracking certain diseases like they're going to end

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Speaker 1: all that tracking, but they are going to track people

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Speaker 1: who have autism. So just explain to me how this

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Speaker 1: makes any sense.

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Speaker 2: No, don't, you can't.

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Speaker 3: I was good to say it not to do with that.

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Speaker 3: But what I will explain to you, which I'm sure

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Speaker 3: you already know, is that Trump is now saying about

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Speaker 3: his deportations that the reason they're going to start evading

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Speaker 3: new processes, they cannot everyone a trial.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I love it so much. Yeah, you can't give

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Speaker 1: everyone a trial.

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Speaker 2: Yeah you can.

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Speaker 1: That's how we do it here. He said this during

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Speaker 1: one of his truths. These truths we hold from his

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Speaker 1: truth social America can't give everyone a trial. It's actually

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Speaker 1: the bedrock of our constitution. He's very unhappy. He wants

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Speaker 1: to ship hundreds of Venezuelan men to Seecott, the scary

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Speaker 1: torture prison in Al Salvador. Funny, you know last week

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Speaker 1: we had some Republicans go to Seacott to mug for

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Speaker 1: the cameras in front of all the men in the

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Speaker 1: shaved heads and the white pajamas, a little bit like

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Speaker 1: Abu Grave right when we saw soldiers do that. Not

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Speaker 1: another dark moment in American history. You know, It's funny

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Speaker 1: because it's like, here we are Trump World trying to

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Speaker 1: enact this Alien Enemies Act, which was every time it's

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Speaker 1: been enacted, it's been during war, but it's also been

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Speaker 1: sort of the darkest moments, Like nobody is like we

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Speaker 1: need to go back to turning the Japanese, like that

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Speaker 1: was one of our darkest moments, and that's where we

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Speaker 1: are here more of the darkest moments. So not not surprising,

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Speaker 1: but you know here we are.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I can't think of anything more American than our proud

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Speaker 3: tradition of making people wait two years for trials, to

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Speaker 3: the point that when we see somebody finally stayd trial

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Speaker 3: for something, we all go I thought they were dead.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that's what we do here.

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Speaker 1: Mike Tamaski is the editor of The New Republic and

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Speaker 1: the author of The Middle Out The Rise of Progressive Economics.

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to Fast Politics, Mike Tamaski.

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Speaker 5: It's my favorite thing. Molly Jong Fast.

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Speaker 2: We know each other forever. You taught me how to

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Speaker 2: write opinion.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about the moment we find ourselves in not great,

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Speaker 1: not great great.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it gets weirder every week. This week's weirdness again

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Speaker 5: with the fact that the Pope sized up jd Vance

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Speaker 5: and decided it was time to go check out.

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Speaker 1: I'm so bad, oh, the poor Pope.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely no. He was one of the great popes

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Speaker 5: of my lifetime, which extended back much farther than I

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Speaker 5: care to admit, includes briefly, although I wasn't sentient and

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Speaker 5: wasn't aware of him, But it includes briefly John the

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Speaker 5: twenty third who, from our point of view is the best,

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Speaker 5: because you know, he was the liberal and he opened

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Speaker 5: things up in the English mass of this and that.

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Speaker 5: But then Pape Bendict never went as far as we

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Speaker 5: would have hoped. But he did a lot of things

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Speaker 5: and planted a lot of seeds that I hope will

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Speaker 5: sprout in the future. Anyway, let's stop so.

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Speaker 1: We know he was a good pope because Marjorie Taylor

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Speaker 1: Green tweeted after he died today there were major shifts

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Speaker 1: in global leaderships. Evil is being defeated by the hand

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Speaker 1: of God.

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Speaker 5: I did see that tweet. I didn't quite realize that

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Speaker 5: this was what she was referring to.

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Speaker 1: But of course I too did not realize that was

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Speaker 1: what she was referring to. But later I realized that

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Speaker 1: she was in fact referring to the death of the pope.

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Speaker 1: Imagine if a Democrat did that. Imagine if a Democrat

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Speaker 1: was like even just was like, I never liked him anyway.

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Speaker 5: I mean, yeah, it's insanity, and it's reached an intolerable point.

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Speaker 5: So what else do we have. We have a defense

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Speaker 5: secretary who's obviously way it over his head. It's not

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Speaker 5: as if we didn't know. Now, it's not as if

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Speaker 5: we didn't know. When he was nominated, there were dozens

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Speaker 5: hundreds of people who said, is he kidding? When Trump

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Speaker 5: was talking last year about his beautiful tariffs, the most

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Speaker 5: beautiful world word in the dictionary, there were dozens or

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Speaker 5: hundreds of people saying, he's out of his mind. He's

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Speaker 5: going to tank the markets, he's going to cause a

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Speaker 5: global trade war, he's going to ruin the economy, and

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Speaker 5: he just genuinely doesn't know what he's talking about when

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Speaker 5: he says having an individual trade deficit with any particular

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Speaker 5: country in the world is a horrible thing.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 5: Another aspect of that that is under discussed, in my view,

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Speaker 5: is that he has said many times he wants to

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Speaker 5: go back to like it was in the eighteen hundreds,

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Speaker 5: when we didn't have an internal revenue service. The government

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Speaker 5: just lived off tariff income. That is an insane thought.

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Speaker 5: I could go into the numbers very well. Then, of

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Speaker 5: course there's the jailing of innocent people. And Khalil, his

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Speaker 5: son was born this week.

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Speaker 2: Did you cactually miss the birth of his son.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, because he's in a detention facility, but they moved

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Speaker 1: him to New Jersey.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, but he's a permanent resident.

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Speaker 1: If I'm not mistaken, he's married to a citizen who's

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Speaker 1: married to a citizen another citizen, and whose only supposed

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Speaker 1: crime is having political opinion that this administration doesn't agree with.

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Speaker 1: It's sick, and it's getting sicker. I think the good

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Speaker 1: news here, if there is good news, and you know,

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Speaker 1: you and I we talk about this all the time

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Speaker 1: because we are friends and we tuk on the phone,

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Speaker 1: is that my prior is that I'm a little bit optimistic,

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Speaker 1: which is my worst quality and has proven me has

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Speaker 1: proven to be my achilles heel again and again and again.

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Speaker 1: But we're going to be a little optimistic here. It

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Speaker 1: does feel as if this is still the gang that

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Speaker 1: can't shoot straight. Like they may have had some help

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Speaker 1: with the Heritage Foundation, with Project twenty twenty five, they

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Speaker 1: may have had some more intellectual fortitude, or at least

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Speaker 1: the appearance of, but ultimately, at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: this crew is still pretty incompetent.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, and thank goodness for that, although you know, I

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Speaker 5: also read that like they've executed x out of the

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Speaker 5: total y number of ideas in Project twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 5: And for a gang that can't shoot straight, that's only

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Speaker 5: been in office ninety days. It was a surprisingly high percentage.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to talk about that today because I

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Speaker 1: saw an academic writing about this.

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Speaker 2: This morning, and I thought this was important.

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Speaker 1: Executive orders are Trump World's favorite tool because they're really

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Speaker 1: ultimately like he does them that are not legal, right,

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Speaker 1: They're not thought out the way Democrats used to do.

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Speaker 2: The more Republicans even.

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Speaker 1: Like, you know, a lot of these are like I'm

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Speaker 1: targeting Mark Elias for the Steel dossier and his lack

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Speaker 1: of respect for how.

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Speaker 2: Great I am.

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Speaker 1: And they fall apart in court. And there's a reason

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Speaker 1: they fall apart in court, because they're not legal, right.

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Speaker 5: We have to hope they continue to fall apart in court,

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Speaker 5: especially the one court that matters more than all the

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Speaker 5: other courts. And we'll see what they have to say.

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Speaker 5: You know, I think it's now obviously it's incumbent upon

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Speaker 5: the Supreme Court to say something more forceful about returning

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Speaker 5: Kilmar Abrado Garcia to the United States and getting him

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Speaker 5: out of El Salvador, the one where he wasn't supposed

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Speaker 5: to be sent. Yeah, what are there hundred and ninety

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Speaker 5: five countries in the world they could have sent him

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Speaker 5: to Lesotho. They could have sent him to Sri Lanka.

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Speaker 5: They had any and they have a lot of people.

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Speaker 5: This hasn't quite gotten through to a lot of people.

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Speaker 5: But they can bring him back and then immediately that

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Speaker 5: same day begin legal deportation procedures against him if they

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Speaker 5: wish to do that. But they don't wish to do that.

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Speaker 5: They're keeping him in the one place where they were

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Speaker 5: told they can't keep him. So yeah, I hope the

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Speaker 5: courts follow through. But then if the courts follow through

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Speaker 5: and Trump says, you know, okay, enforce it, then where

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Speaker 5: are we Look.

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Speaker 1: The Supreme Court went nine to zero on the due process,

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Speaker 1: and again I think the reason why the wording was

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Speaker 1: so vague, at least what I've read, is that it

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Speaker 1: was probably that Roberts was trying to get the two

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Speaker 1: Fox News hosts to sign on, because when it was

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Speaker 1: more specific, it was seven two. But even seven to

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Speaker 1: two is humongous for this court. I mean, there's a

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Speaker 1: court that overturned Road. This is a court that said

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Speaker 1: Trump was a king a year ago. So you'll have

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Speaker 1: to wonder if Roberts sort of understands how precarious this

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Speaker 1: moment is.

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Speaker 5: Well I think he does. I think he understands it.

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Speaker 5: The question is whether he has the courage to act

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Speaker 5: on that understanding. But I share your optimism to this extent,

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Speaker 5: Molly More and more people are standing up. What Harvard

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Speaker 5: is doing is very admirable because they didn't just say

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Speaker 5: no to Trump. Now they've turned around and turned the

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Speaker 5: tables on him and said we're suing you. And that's

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Speaker 5: going out of their way and kind of asking for

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Speaker 5: trouble in a good and admirable way. That should embolden people.

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Speaker 5: The schools of the Big ten, I hope make this

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Speaker 5: commitment of theirs. More firm does NATO Alliance affairs. I

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Speaker 5: hope more law firms stand up, and you know, I

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Speaker 5: think I do think. And finally, just to say what

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Speaker 5: Rachel Maddow was showing every night for the first ten

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Speaker 5: minutes of her show, all these demonstrations across the country

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Speaker 5: over time, that's all going to matter.

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Speaker 1: So let's just for a minute talk about Trump's Warren

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Speaker 1: because I think it's important. This is straight out of

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Speaker 1: the Hungary playbook, right, This is you go after because

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Speaker 1: Hungary had these fine academic institutions. We saw orbon target

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Speaker 1: academia it worked. He won, quote unquote, which means destroyed

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Speaker 1: the academic institutions. Congratulations, and you no longer matter and

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Speaker 1: the academics just move somewhere else. But this is a

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Speaker 1: page from that, right, because as you and I both know,

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Speaker 1: this is not this is not and in fact, this

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Speaker 1: letter and I want to talk about this. So the

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Speaker 1: letter that they sent, the task on Anti Semitism sent

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Speaker 1: that had three different of these arts of the Trump

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Speaker 1: government signed it.

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Speaker 2: Right, major letter.

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Speaker 1: Had all of these things that would basically put the

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Speaker 1: university into receivership. We will supervise all your teaching, we

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Speaker 1: will supervise all your admissions, we will supervise I mean,

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Speaker 1: it was just like a you will know longer be Harvard,

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Speaker 1: you will be Hillsdale. We're going to make Charlie Kirk

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Speaker 1: your dean of admissions. That was basically what they were saying.

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Speaker 1: What Harvard did right away was publish the letter and

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Speaker 1: say there's no way we can fucking do this, and

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Speaker 1: there's no way we will do this. The next day

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Speaker 1: you had just donations, endless donations coming in, and then

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Speaker 1: you had a groundswell of public support for Harvard. Contrast

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Speaker 1: that with Columbia which acquiesced and now Trump wants more.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's the age old lesson people like this. You

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Speaker 5: give them a little bit and they just keep taking more.

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Speaker 5: But the bottom line question and all these kinds of things,

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Speaker 5: Molly to me is always this, just like, how are

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Speaker 5: you going to be judged by history? House? History going

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Speaker 5: to see you. I think it's pretty clear History's going

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Speaker 5: to judge Harvard very favorably when all this is over,

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Speaker 5: and hope, hopefully we return to being a more or

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Speaker 5: less normal democracy. Brad Karp, the head of SCAD and Arps,

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Speaker 5: is not going to be judged so favorably. That's where

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Speaker 5: people have to take their stands. And then you know

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Speaker 5: it's going to include journalists someday too.

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Speaker 1: You and me, baby, we're going to be this Selena Zito, No,

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Speaker 1: I'm just kidding. When you look at this idea, right

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Speaker 1: that history, it's partially that it's the right thing to do,

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Speaker 1: but also even if you look at the law firms

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Speaker 1: for example, so all of these law firms, right, they're

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Speaker 1: scared about losing corporate clients. This is a money game.

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Speaker 1: The corporate law firms. These guys make ten fifteen million

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Speaker 1: dollars a year. I mean, this is like the really

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Speaker 1: you know, these guys make a ton of money and

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Speaker 1: they were worried about losing clients.

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Speaker 2: This again goes back to these executive worders.

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Speaker 1: None of these are you know, they say they're binding,

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Speaker 1: they're fucking bullshit. It's all made up, right, You take

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Speaker 1: Trump World to court and they lose. The law firms

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Speaker 1: that said no way actually have been winning in court.

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Speaker 1: So the idea here that any of this is, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's all boogeymen.

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Speaker 2: But the ones who made the deal, like scan now.

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Speaker 1: Trump wants more because of course, and so I'm sure

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Speaker 1: you read this or you saw him muse about how

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Speaker 1: perhaps the pro bone of work that these law firms

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Speaker 1: might do could be to help coal companies.

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Speaker 5: I miss that, but I'm sure you know that's just

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Speaker 5: for starters.

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Speaker 1: But coal companies. Like, you're a young associate. You went

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Speaker 1: to Harvard, then you went to Yale law school. You

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Speaker 1: kill yourself working and working and working twenty hour days,

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Speaker 1: and now you are going to represent a coal baron.

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Speaker 5: Right, because they can't afford legal counsel after all.

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Speaker 2: Also, yeah, exact, isn't that crazy?

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Speaker 5: It's total craziness. We don't know what to be outraged at,

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Speaker 5: because at eight in the morning, it's one thing, and

437
00:23:40,160 --> 00:23:41,919
Speaker 5: by tenth thirty in the morning, it's another thing. At

438
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 5: bout one o'clock in the afternoon, it's another thing. But

439
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:47,240
Speaker 5: we're outraged by all of them. And they're all authoritarian,

440
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 5: they're all un American, and some of them are just well,

441
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 5: they're not all. Some of them are just as you said,

442
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:59,240
Speaker 5: ignorance and stupidity and incompetence. So one I wrote about

443
00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:02,399
Speaker 5: in my column this week was Vladimir Putin calling for

444
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:07,399
Speaker 5: a ceasefire and easter ceasefire and then breaking it right again, yeah, again,

445
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,919
Speaker 5: and then asking, well, you know, after what Marco Rubio

446
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:13,160
Speaker 5: said last Friday, what kind of thing do you expect

447
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 5: Vladimir Putin to do? Of course, he's going to do

448
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,680
Speaker 5: whatever he wants. After the Secretary of State of the

449
00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,440
Speaker 5: United States of America said, we're just going to check

450
00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:23,720
Speaker 5: out on this unless we get something within days. It's

451
00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 5: not our problem. It's not our war. That's what he said.

452
00:24:26,280 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 5: It's not our war. So you're sitting in the kremline

453
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 5: and you just you high five the guy next to you.

454
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:35,480
Speaker 5: And now I take it back to Trump saying many

455
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:38,320
Speaker 5: many times on the campaign trail. I will solve that

456
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 5: on my first day, in my first twenty four hours.

457
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 5: As I wrote a lot of times, when people say

458
00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 5: use a phrase like day one, everybody understands they don't

459
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:50,399
Speaker 5: mean it literally. But he did mean this letter he

460
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 5: said on the first day, in the first twenty four hours,

461
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 5: and he said it over and over again. Who was

462
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:58,879
Speaker 5: idiot enough to believe that?

463
00:24:59,119 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 2: I don't know.

464
00:24:59,600 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 1: But again, I wonder if you could speak to little

465
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 1: Marco's incredible weakness here.

466
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 2: He has his job. You've seen other Secretaries of State.

467
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:14,439
Speaker 1: I'm thinking of Rex Tillerson, right, who have done this

468
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:18,879
Speaker 1: job and seemed weak, but not quite weak the same way.

469
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,040
Speaker 1: Why does Marco seem just so weak?

470
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:26,520
Speaker 5: I would say, because of what we know from his background. Okay,

471
00:25:26,600 --> 00:25:30,280
Speaker 5: so he was running against Trump. He was originally appalled

472
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 5: by Trump, and then he went through this short period

473
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 5: before he dropped out of the race where he was

474
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:37,679
Speaker 5: an insult comic toward Trump. You know, he was like

475
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 5: the Don Rickles of the Republican field of twenty sixteen

476
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,439
Speaker 5: for about a week and a half. And he cracks

477
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:47,120
Speaker 5: some very funny jokes. I must say, at Trump's expense,

478
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:50,639
Speaker 5: but then all that was gone and he became a sycophant,

479
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 5: and he's been a ridiculous sycophant ever since. So of

480
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:56,879
Speaker 5: course he's been a sycophant. So I mean when Trump

481
00:25:57,040 --> 00:26:01,159
Speaker 5: named him, I remember thinking to myself, Okay, that's actually

482
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,640
Speaker 5: a plausible choice for secretary of State for three reasons.

483
00:26:04,760 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 5: One Rubio has been a sycophant for seven years. Number two,

484
00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:14,919
Speaker 5: Rubio will pass unanimously because he's a senator and he's not,

485
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:18,240
Speaker 5: you know, a child bolister. And number three, he's a

486
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 5: perfect choice because Rubio is a nothing. You know, Trump

487
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:23,440
Speaker 5: will be the real secretary of State. And I think

488
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:26,160
Speaker 5: that wasn't you know, that wasn't a particularly insightful reaction

489
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 5: on my part. I'm sure it was your reaction. It

490
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:31,119
Speaker 5: was the reaction of hundreds of people. Those three things.

491
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:31,879
Speaker 2: Yeah.

492
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:34,760
Speaker 1: The other thing that Trump is doing this time, which

493
00:26:34,760 --> 00:26:37,000
Speaker 1: he didn't do last time, which I'm wondering if you

494
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 1: can speak to if you think it's going to work.

495
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:44,760
Speaker 1: Trump is this time not firing people, because last time

496
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 1: he fired everyone and I think he thought that it whatever,

497
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:51,760
Speaker 1: it gave him less gravitas. So he's like knock, going

498
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:55,000
Speaker 1: to fire Hagsatz, despite the fact that heg sas is

499
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:57,639
Speaker 1: pretty fast and loose with a lot of that did

500
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 1: the information that he probably shouldn't be fast and loose with.

501
00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 2: What do you think the play there is?

502
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:05,919
Speaker 5: I see, I'm firing he Sith. I mean based on

503
00:27:05,960 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 5: what you said yesterday at the Easter Egg thing, but

504
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:11,680
Speaker 5: also just based on what we know about him. I mean,

505
00:27:12,119 --> 00:27:15,920
Speaker 5: that's not their play. Their play is to turn everything

506
00:27:15,960 --> 00:27:19,400
Speaker 5: around and make everything about the liberal media and the leftists.

507
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 5: As Hexath said also at the Easter Egg hunt, nothing's

508
00:27:22,760 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 5: their fault. Everything's the fault of the left wing media.

509
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:28,639
Speaker 5: And so you know that's that's really all they have

510
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 5: to say. And that's that, and that Fox and Newsmax

511
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:35,520
Speaker 5: and Sinclair and the rest of them ate that, and

512
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,679
Speaker 5: that becomes the gospel. So if that's what you believe,

513
00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 5: then why on earth would you fire Hexith? You didn't

514
00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:45,920
Speaker 5: do anything wrong because it's all the fault of the media.

515
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:48,440
Speaker 2: Right, So true, Mike TAMASKI, will you.

516
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 5: Please come back anytime?

517
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:50,720
Speaker 2: My dear.

518
00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 1: G Elliott Morris is the author of these Strength in

519
00:27:56,720 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 1: Numbers some stuff Welcome too fast polity ex Sally Morris.

520
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:03,840
Speaker 1: Thanks Wally This is very exciting for me because I

521
00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 1: had wanted to have you on for a million years

522
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:09,040
Speaker 1: when you were at five point thirty eight and you were.

523
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:11,440
Speaker 2: At a network, and network can be persnickety.

524
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:14,239
Speaker 1: So I'm very delighted to get to have you on

525
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:17,399
Speaker 1: because I think there's just a lot to learn from data.

526
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:20,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I think, especially in this moment in politics,

527
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 4: it's really good to ink ourselves two of the facts.

528
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,359
Speaker 4: I mean, this seems to be a problem that's getting

529
00:28:25,640 --> 00:28:30,440
Speaker 4: even worse as the media fractures, and you have one

530
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:34,080
Speaker 4: party in power that is really in favor of that fracturing,

531
00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:38,040
Speaker 4: seeming egging on some of the factlessness. So I think

532
00:28:38,080 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 4: it's a good time for independent people to strike out

533
00:28:40,360 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 4: and devote publications two facts. If I can be oral,

534
00:28:44,520 --> 00:28:45,880
Speaker 4: self congratulatory here.

535
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 1: And partisan too, a little bit partisan, and we like

536
00:28:50,360 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 1: it here because I'm on the opinion side.

537
00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 2: So you have a bunch of things I want to

538
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:55,040
Speaker 2: talk to you about.

539
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,760
Speaker 1: The first thing I think we should talk about is

540
00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:03,880
Speaker 1: Trump's popularity, because I do think there's this authoritarian push

541
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:07,920
Speaker 1: that the administration is doing. You could say it's dismantling

542
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:11,800
Speaker 1: the administrative state. You could say it's authoritarianism. I say

543
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 1: it's authoritarianism, they say it's dismantling the administrative state. But

544
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:19,680
Speaker 1: whatever it is, I want you to talk about just

545
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 1: sort of how popular he was when he came into

546
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 1: office and sort of where he's gone since then, because

547
00:29:25,360 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 1: it's almost one hundred days.

548
00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, whether or not it's authoritarianism or remaking

549
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 4: the administrative state, it's kind of like calling a blackbird

550
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 4: a grackle. That's the same thing. They're using the power

551
00:29:35,240 --> 00:29:37,600
Speaker 4: of the state to their goals. To your question, that

552
00:29:37,760 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 4: does seem to be having an effect on Donald Trump's popularity,

553
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 4: on his approval rating in particular, but also his approval

554
00:29:43,760 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 4: rating on handling certain issues. So on my stub stack

555
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:51,480
Speaker 4: at Strengthen Numbers, I have an average of Trump's approuval polls.

556
00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 4: It's sort of the intellectual follow of the average we

557
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:58,040
Speaker 4: had at five point thirty eight before it was shut down,

558
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 4: and it has Donald Trump's net approval rating today at

559
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:03,400
Speaker 4: minus six. Okay, that's the difference between his approval rating

560
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 4: at forty five percent and his disapproval rating at fifty

561
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:09,200
Speaker 4: one percent. So we find a majority of the country

562
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:12,959
Speaker 4: disapproves of the job he's doing today. And when he started,

563
00:30:12,960 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 4: you know, his approval rating was at fifty and his

564
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 4: disapproval rating was at forty. So this is a pretty

565
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:21,520
Speaker 4: big inversion of where he started as presidency.

566
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:24,920
Speaker 1: I want you to sort of track how this went.

567
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 1: He was as popular as he'd ever been, won the

568
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:28,560
Speaker 1: popular vote.

569
00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 2: What were the sort of.

570
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 1: Things that you can point to that change the trajectory.

571
00:30:33,560 --> 00:30:36,320
Speaker 4: This is a hard problem to solve in social science

572
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 4: because there's two things going on. One is just there's

573
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:43,720
Speaker 4: like a general trend down in your approval rating as

574
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 4: time goes on. So you know Trump, twenty seventeen, Joe Biden,

575
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 4: Barack Obama, all of those approval ratings just fell gradually

576
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:56,520
Speaker 4: as the presidency kicked off. The political scientists would say,

577
00:30:56,600 --> 00:31:01,160
Speaker 4: this is because the party in power moves policy away

578
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:04,440
Speaker 4: from the average voter just by virtue of being the

579
00:31:04,480 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 4: party in power, and you marginalize a small number of

580
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 4: people with every policy change, and that just adds up.

581
00:31:11,440 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 4: It certainly seems to be part of the explanation Trump's

582
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 4: his net approval rating falling, you know, seventeen points is

583
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 4: about how much it fell in twenty seventeen as well

584
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 4: over this amount of time in his first term. But

585
00:31:23,560 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 4: that's not to say that events don't matter. It's just

586
00:31:25,960 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 4: that they kind of pile up on each other over time.

587
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,920
Speaker 1: Right, But there are certain For example, in Biden world,

588
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:37,680
Speaker 1: the Afghanistan withdrawal, say what you will about it, liked it,

589
00:31:37,680 --> 00:31:40,680
Speaker 1: didn't like it. Most people didn't like it. I think

590
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:45,760
Speaker 1: pretty true, but it did not pull well. So and

591
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:49,480
Speaker 1: it really was a moment where his numbers started to

592
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 1: just create. So I wonder, like it seems to me

593
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 1: from what I understand, the tariffs are huge. That was

594
00:31:56,760 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 1: a huge moment in Trump administration.

595
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, so on April second, Best Liberation Day, the day

596
00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 4: his tariffs go into due effect, he's at a minus

597
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 4: two approval rating, and now now he's at minus six

598
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:14,480
Speaker 4: minus seven, And that's where most of the change in

599
00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:17,680
Speaker 4: his apprewer rating has happened since April second. So you

600
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:19,200
Speaker 4: kind of have to use the other data to make

601
00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:22,760
Speaker 4: the argument that these things are being noticed by people.

602
00:32:22,800 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 4: But I think you have a strong argument there as well.

603
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 4: It's the lead story on every news outlet, at least

604
00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 4: until last week. People say terrorists arey, you know, they

605
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 4: don't like them by twenty points or nineteen points. So

606
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 4: that's a compelling argument to me. I think that's probably

607
00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 4: the biggest political misstep for the administration so far.

608
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:42,640
Speaker 2: Yeah.

609
00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:45,920
Speaker 1: So the tariffs, and this gets to something you wrote

610
00:32:45,920 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 1: about just recently on your Strength a numbers substaff. Should

611
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:54,120
Speaker 1: Democrats focus on immigration or the economy? So Gavin Newsom

612
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 1: said this thing about how the tariffs were more detrimental

613
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 1: than the disappearing people and that Democrats should focus on that.

614
00:33:02,320 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 2: What what is the data say?

615
00:33:04,560 --> 00:33:07,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, if you look at the answer to the

616
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 4: question do you approve of the job the president is

617
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 4: doing on X? Where X is like immigration, economy, trader,

618
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 4: what have you, then you get about a four point

619
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:21,200
Speaker 4: approplarating for the president. So four percentage point more people

620
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:25,040
Speaker 4: say he approves than disapprove, you know. So you might

621
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 4: see that numbers say like, oh, what he's doing is popular,

622
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 4: But what's actually happening is this question is too broad

623
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 4: to really capture the nuances of public opinion on immigration.

624
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 4: That's my argument at least. So if you then ask people,

625
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 4: you know, not do you approve of the job the

626
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 4: president is doing on immigration, but do you think the

627
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:46,960
Speaker 4: president should obey federal court rulings even if he disagrees

628
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 4: with them. For example, which is what's happening in the

629
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 4: Abrego Garcia case. Eighty two percent of people say the

630
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 4: president should obey the court ruling. If you ask, you

631
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:57,680
Speaker 4: should Trump keep deporting people just by the court order?

632
00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:00,960
Speaker 4: Stop it? You know? Most Americans about sixty percent say

633
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:04,400
Speaker 4: he should stop. If you and sorry to list things,

634
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 4: but if you ask people you know, should should the

635
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 4: US government deport undocumented immigrants who have lived here for

636
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,960
Speaker 4: more than ten years? Than by thirty seven points people

637
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 4: say no, don't do that. So my whole sort of

638
00:34:16,000 --> 00:34:18,120
Speaker 4: project here at this immigration polling is just to get

639
00:34:18,120 --> 00:34:21,760
Speaker 4: people to acknowledge that there's nuances, that there's some types

640
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 4: of immigration policies that people like and don't like, and

641
00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,840
Speaker 4: that the broad question do you approve of whatever the

642
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 4: executive is doing is not super helpful.

643
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly.

644
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:35,279
Speaker 1: So let's just go another sort of minute on this,

645
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 1: which is, and I think you're right when you write

646
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:39,439
Speaker 1: about this. You talk about the idea that in fact,

647
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:43,399
Speaker 1: parties can hold two things in their head, right, that

648
00:34:43,640 --> 00:34:47,040
Speaker 1: you can focus on this sort of norms crushing of

649
00:34:47,120 --> 00:34:50,879
Speaker 1: deporting people who have not faced through process, and then

650
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:57,240
Speaker 1: also the importance of not crashing the economy. So Trump's

651
00:34:57,280 --> 00:34:59,960
Speaker 1: people seem and I think this is something I really

652
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,879
Speaker 1: want to dig into because today is yet another day

653
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:05,600
Speaker 1: that ends and why and so the markets are down

654
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:09,719
Speaker 1: and the bond anxiety gold is up. I mean, all

655
00:35:09,800 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 1: the indicators that they that people are not happy with

656
00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 1: what the government is doing on the economy. Explain to

657
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:18,760
Speaker 1: me how it breaks down on Poland, because it's interesting

658
00:35:18,880 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 1: and important.

659
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:19,880
Speaker 2: I think.

660
00:35:20,040 --> 00:35:24,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, so maybe some relevant numbers here. About seventy percent

661
00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:27,320
Speaker 4: of Americans say they don't like Trump's tariff policies.

662
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:28,840
Speaker 2: Seems pretty high.

663
00:35:29,080 --> 00:35:32,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's like a pretty negative signal with the incumbent

664
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:33,280
Speaker 4: White House.

665
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:36,080
Speaker 1: Since you're a data die, can you just explain to

666
00:35:36,120 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 1: us how hard it is to get seventy percent of

667
00:35:37,960 --> 00:35:39,600
Speaker 1: Americans to agree on anything.

668
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 4: Seventy percent disapproval is pretty high. That's about the percent

669
00:35:43,680 --> 00:35:45,879
Speaker 4: of people who said Joe Biden was doing poorly out

670
00:35:45,960 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 4: inflation with seventy percent. And I think, and we acknowledge

671
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:51,799
Speaker 4: in hindsight that inflation was pretty bad in twenty twenty two.

672
00:35:51,800 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 4: So it's it's getting to the point where it's like, oh,

673
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 4: this is this is nearly an obvious and obvious truth,

674
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,320
Speaker 4: you know, something you can see with your eyes inside

675
00:35:59,320 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 4: of with data.

676
00:36:00,120 --> 00:36:03,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, the MAGA crew still has his back talk us

677
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:06,719
Speaker 1: through those numbers and sort of what they're thinking is.

678
00:36:06,960 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 4: I mean, I think the White House is thinking here

679
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:14,600
Speaker 4: is that if they and shore up manufacturing in the

680
00:36:14,600 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 4: long term, then that would be politically popular. If they

681
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 4: can stick it to China, then those sort of victories

682
00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:23,960
Speaker 4: are popular. But those are long term plays and in

683
00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 4: the short term you are like draining people's For one case,

684
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:31,439
Speaker 4: people are losing their jobs in manufacturing because businesses can't

685
00:36:31,440 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 4: afford tariffs, and that is definitely showing up in the numbers.

686
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 4: So by an eighteen point margin. For example, in the

687
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:41,480
Speaker 4: latest polling, people say they disapprove of Trump's trade and

688
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:43,200
Speaker 4: economic policy.

689
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:47,800
Speaker 2: Right, which is amazing for a Republican, Right.

690
00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:50,520
Speaker 4: I mean, the Republicans had the advantage on this question

691
00:36:50,719 --> 00:36:54,120
Speaker 4: for the last fifteen years, so he's really you know,

692
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 4: one way of looking at this as Trump is sort

693
00:36:56,120 --> 00:37:00,279
Speaker 4: of blowing probably the best asset Republicans had so the

694
00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:03,960
Speaker 4: last five elections on his sponge that tariffs would work

695
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 4: out right, completely uneminenced.

696
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is something I think about a lot. What's

697
00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 1: the number of die hard magos. What's the number where

698
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 1: you crash the economy and they're still like, my guy

699
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:18,280
Speaker 1: is great, he knows what he's doing.

700
00:37:18,560 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 4: That's a great question. I think it's probably twenty five,

701
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:24,800
Speaker 4: maybe thirty percent. And the reason they say that number

702
00:37:24,840 --> 00:37:27,719
Speaker 4: that that's the number of people who say you should

703
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:31,560
Speaker 4: deport immigrants who have been here for like two decades

704
00:37:31,600 --> 00:37:34,680
Speaker 4: and have legal status. That is the number of people

705
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:39,760
Speaker 4: who say they support Trump's tariffs, who approve extending tax cuts,

706
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,800
Speaker 4: even if it means cutting Medicare, Like about thirty percent

707
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:46,840
Speaker 4: is what you get as the yes to all of

708
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:50,239
Speaker 4: the most extreme Trump policies let's call them extreme, the

709
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 4: most trumpy policies. So I think it's probably about twenty

710
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:56,080
Speaker 4: five or thirty percent, But that would depend on the

711
00:37:56,120 --> 00:37:59,080
Speaker 4: scale of the economic crisis, like great Depression level might

712
00:37:59,120 --> 00:38:02,120
Speaker 4: be worst session level, Like I guess it depends on

713
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 4: how many people are still paying for Fox News and

714
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 4: X subscriptions. You know, there's a media influence going on

715
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:08,919
Speaker 4: here too.

716
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,520
Speaker 1: What percentage of America do you think is the group

717
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 1: that went with Trump but has regrets.

718
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 4: Well, if you ask people straight up, it's like five percent.

719
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 4: If you ask people, Hey, who do you know, do

720
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:22,560
Speaker 4: you regret your vote? In twenty twenty four, low single

721
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 4: digits of people say that they regret it, But that's

722
00:38:26,120 --> 00:38:28,440
Speaker 4: a really hard thing to poll, Like people don't like

723
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 4: to admit they were wrong. And if yeah, if you

724
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:34,239
Speaker 4: ask Kamala Harris supporters, do they regret their vote, it's

725
00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:37,279
Speaker 4: also low single digits. So you know, these things can

726
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:40,239
Speaker 4: equal allow they can cancel each other out and have

727
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 4: small effects on electro performance even if you're you know,

728
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:45,720
Speaker 4: even if there's some regret on either side.

729
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 1: We talk a lot about sort of the middle of

730
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 1: the country, like the ideological middle of the country, and

731
00:38:51,960 --> 00:38:55,880
Speaker 1: I'm curious there's an added to the seventy percent of

732
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:58,920
Speaker 1: the country is the middle. They're all sort of ideologically

733
00:38:59,000 --> 00:39:01,319
Speaker 1: much more centris. Do you think that number's right?

734
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:03,879
Speaker 4: What percentage of other country did you say you think

735
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:04,719
Speaker 4: was centrist?

736
00:39:05,080 --> 00:39:07,480
Speaker 1: What we've sort of heard is that seventy percent of

737
00:39:07,520 --> 00:39:09,719
Speaker 1: the country is sort of the is more centrist.

738
00:39:10,560 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 4: I don't know, I'll just as some nuance here. So

739
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:17,120
Speaker 4: like usually people don't have moderate opinions on a bunch

740
00:39:17,160 --> 00:39:20,239
Speaker 4: of different issues, and you call them moderates. That's really rare.

741
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:23,359
Speaker 4: Most people don't pay attention to politics, and they feel

742
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 4: very intensely about a couple of issues, and then they

743
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:30,120
Speaker 4: pick countervailing opinions on a bunch of stuff. So they'll

744
00:39:30,160 --> 00:39:32,319
Speaker 4: have a liberal, really liberal position on one thing, and

745
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:34,400
Speaker 4: I'll maybe trade in a really conservative position on the

746
00:39:34,400 --> 00:39:37,080
Speaker 4: other thing, maybe immigration, let's say. And then we call

747
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 4: those people moderates just because of the way that polsters

748
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 4: and academics have combined all of those opinions together. But

749
00:39:45,680 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 4: most people don't pay attention to politics enough to like

750
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:51,719
Speaker 4: be centrist. They're just kind of living their lives, and

751
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:54,359
Speaker 4: you can activate them on the left or the right,

752
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 4: depending on what issues are most important to them. So

753
00:39:57,920 --> 00:39:59,920
Speaker 4: one way to answer your question is, like, on immigration,

754
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:03,480
Speaker 4: maybe the country is more right leaning than the audience takes.

755
00:40:03,560 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 4: But on economics, like what people want is stability, predictability.

756
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:11,839
Speaker 4: They want a president who's like committed mostly to fed independence,

757
00:40:12,080 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 4: so the monetary policy is and politicized, and that like,

758
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:19,160
Speaker 4: you know, people also have this baseline expectation that politicians

759
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:22,280
Speaker 4: will react to data that shows they did something wrong.

760
00:40:22,680 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 4: And I guess if you call that said all that

761
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:28,160
Speaker 4: stuff's centrist, I think it's at least rational, or that's

762
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:31,680
Speaker 4: how people should be behaving. Then definitely a lot more

763
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:33,799
Speaker 4: interests than the ones that are in the whitehounch So

764
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:34,440
Speaker 4: I guess.

765
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:38,319
Speaker 1: So interesting and also just you know, it's sort of

766
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:41,080
Speaker 1: not how I think about things, which I think is important.

767
00:40:41,120 --> 00:40:44,520
Speaker 1: So I'm curious when you look at these protests, what

768
00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:46,520
Speaker 1: do you see in the data on the protests?

769
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, the way that I analyze this is like what

770
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:55,480
Speaker 4: historical midterm cycles does this one look like? And the protests,

771
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 4: like the number of people that are out protesting in

772
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:00,000
Speaker 4: the street, And that matters if it's like twenty million

773
00:41:00,160 --> 00:41:03,440
Speaker 4: versus two, of course, but the real important thing is

774
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 4: like are their protests at all? Are their mass protests?

775
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:11,600
Speaker 4: And then do those protests align with like popular positions

776
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:15,280
Speaker 4: from the opposition party that would indicate an opposition party

777
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:17,840
Speaker 4: doing well in the next election. Is the media responding

778
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,879
Speaker 4: to these protests, covering them, putting footage of people out there?

779
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:22,759
Speaker 4: It's like, yes, well then well then a lot of

780
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 4: people are going to see the coverage of these protests.

781
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:28,080
Speaker 4: So this is sort of the data driven journalism in

782
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 4: terms of like checking boxes empirically to try to match

783
00:41:31,160 --> 00:41:34,399
Speaker 4: things up historically, rather than the data driven journalism that's like, oh, look,

784
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:36,480
Speaker 4: fifty million people turned out, Like I don't know how

785
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:40,240
Speaker 4: many people turned out the last weekend. That doesn't really

786
00:41:40,520 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 4: matter because all the conditions for Democrats capturing the momentum

787
00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:48,080
Speaker 4: from the protests are there.

788
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:52,400
Speaker 2: So interesting. Thank you, thank you, thank you, Elliott. I

789
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:53,239
Speaker 2: hope it'll come back.

790
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:55,360
Speaker 4: Okay, thank you, this is great.

791
00:41:58,120 --> 00:42:02,640
Speaker 2: Moment. Jesse Cannon, Samali.

792
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:08,680
Speaker 3: The FDA under rfk's rule, it's suspending milk quality tests

793
00:42:08,680 --> 00:42:11,760
Speaker 3: amid workforce cuts, which seems bad.

794
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:15,080
Speaker 1: I want to explain this to everyone here. Okay, they

795
00:42:15,160 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 1: are cutting the workforce so that they can give very

796
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:22,279
Speaker 1: wealthy people a tax cut. There is no reason that

797
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 1: this needs to happen. There is no like, all of

798
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 1: this is like, well, we can't do this. We can't

799
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:30,720
Speaker 1: give very wealthy people a tax cut unless we cut

800
00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:35,080
Speaker 1: what the government does for people. So let's cut workforce cuts.

801
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:38,040
Speaker 1: When it comes to food safety, because you know, again

802
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:41,240
Speaker 1: like this is the whole Trump thing. You don't understand

803
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:44,839
Speaker 1: why you have regulations until things go horribly wrong. So

804
00:42:45,280 --> 00:42:49,440
Speaker 1: like that train that derailed in East Palestine, Ohio, you

805
00:42:49,480 --> 00:42:54,040
Speaker 1: don't have those regulations until you have the train derail

806
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:57,920
Speaker 1: in East Palestine. Ohio, and everyone gets sick from the

807
00:42:58,400 --> 00:43:01,640
Speaker 1: you know, the all the chemicals. That's what this is, right.

808
00:43:01,719 --> 00:43:05,520
Speaker 1: So now they're not going to inspect milk quality. And

809
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:07,359
Speaker 1: here's what's going to happen. People are going to get

810
00:43:07,360 --> 00:43:11,319
Speaker 1: sent for milk. This is why we have these quality inspectors.

811
00:43:11,360 --> 00:43:14,400
Speaker 1: This is why we have regulation. Is because there was

812
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 1: a reason. Like Donald Trump loves to talk about tariffs

813
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:21,560
Speaker 1: and how there was a time before the internal revenue system.

814
00:43:21,840 --> 00:43:24,080
Speaker 2: I swear to God, like my man has he has

815
00:43:24,120 --> 00:43:26,880
Speaker 2: like very few ideas and they are so stuck in

816
00:43:26,960 --> 00:43:32,160
Speaker 2: his brain with like sticky tacky whatever. So he's like, yeah,

817
00:43:32,160 --> 00:43:35,799
Speaker 2: there was a time when America is really great. You

818
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 2: know during that time, like people would eat bad fish

819
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:42,040
Speaker 2: and die. This is the goal, right, It's like, you know,

820
00:43:42,200 --> 00:43:44,360
Speaker 2: you drank that milk and it made you so sick.

821
00:43:44,560 --> 00:43:47,399
Speaker 2: That's where we're going to folks, and you hear you

822
00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 2: heard it here first. And when that milk makes you sick,

823
00:43:51,200 --> 00:43:53,760
Speaker 2: remember who told you this is all going to happen.

824
00:43:54,280 --> 00:43:56,600
Speaker 2: And visit me in Seacott.

825
00:43:57,480 --> 00:43:59,680
Speaker 3: I often think of discussions you and I have that

826
00:44:00,000 --> 00:44:01,719
Speaker 3: a lot of people say, oh, this is all to

827
00:44:01,760 --> 00:44:04,319
Speaker 3: benefit the rich, and this is one of those ones

828
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:06,480
Speaker 3: where it's like, no, this is just stupid.

829
00:44:06,760 --> 00:44:08,359
Speaker 2: This is all to benefit the rich.

830
00:44:08,440 --> 00:44:10,600
Speaker 1: I say, this is someone who was you know, who

831
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:12,120
Speaker 1: had a lot of advantages.

832
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:15,040
Speaker 3: Well, but this is also will affect the rich and

833
00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:18,320
Speaker 3: is also just the stupid one that affects everybody.

834
00:44:18,680 --> 00:44:22,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, I guess Elon has a food taster. If

835
00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 1: you don't have a food taster, this is going to

836
00:44:25,040 --> 00:44:27,720
Speaker 1: be very annoying and perhaps you might die.

837
00:44:27,880 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 2: Welcome to Trump's America. You probably won't die, but you

838
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 2: might get a release it.

839
00:44:32,880 --> 00:44:38,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune

840
00:44:38,880 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 1: in every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday to hear the

841
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:48,799
Speaker 1: best minds and politics make sense of all this chaos.

842
00:44:49,080 --> 00:44:51,960
Speaker 1: If you enjoy this podcast, please send it to a

843
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 1: friend and keep the conversation going.

844
00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening.