WEBVTT - Interview Only w/ Ambassador Robert Blackwill - America Is Losing The World 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:02.360 This episode of the Chuck Todcast is brought to you 0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:06.240 by Wild Grain. Wild Grain is the first bake from 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:11.280 frozen subscription box for sour dough breads, arteisonal pastries, and 0:00:11.320 --> 0:00:14.800 fresh pastas, plus all the items conveniently baked in twenty 0:00:14.800 --> 0:00:18.759 five minutes or less. Unlike many store brought options, Wild 0:00:18.840 --> 0:00:21.880 Grain uses some simple ingredients you can pronounce and a 0:00:22.040 --> 0:00:25.480 slow fermentation process that can be a lot easier on 0:00:25.520 --> 0:00:28.080 your belly, little gut health there right, and richer in 0:00:28.200 --> 0:00:32.600 nutrients antioxidants. There's also no preservatives and no shortcuts. The 0:00:32.640 --> 0:00:35.800 Wild Grain boxes are fully customizable. In addition to their 0:00:35.880 --> 0:00:38.920 variety box, they have a gluten free box, a vegan box, 0:00:39.200 --> 0:00:42.559 and a new protein box. I will tell you I 0:00:42.600 --> 0:00:44.960 have done the gluten free box. I have done it 0:00:44.960 --> 0:00:48.600 a second time. I have also used the code the 0:00:48.680 --> 0:00:52.040 todcast code. You use the promo code toodcast at checkout 0:00:52.080 --> 0:00:55.640 you get thirty dollars off. I've already used it as 0:00:55.680 --> 0:00:58.880 a gift to somebody else who loves this bread. It 0:00:59.000 --> 0:01:02.560 is hard to find good gluten free bread. It is fantastic. 0:01:02.720 --> 0:01:05.720 They give you step by step instructions. I really dig this. 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:09.760 There is nothing like having an artesion bakery in your 0:01:09.800 --> 0:01:12.560 freezer to chase away the winter chill. Now is the 0:01:12.560 --> 0:01:15.920 best time to stay in and enjoy some comforting homemade 0:01:15.920 --> 0:01:19.440 meals with Wild Grain. I obviously highly recommend it. It 0:01:19.520 --> 0:01:22.240 is worth giving wild Grain to try. Right now, Wildgrain 0:01:22.319 --> 0:01:24.919 is offering my listeners thirty dollars off your first box 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:28.720 plus free croissants for life. Come on when you go 0:01:28.800 --> 0:01:32.959 to wildgrain dot com slash podcast to start your subscription today. 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:36.360 That's thirty dollars off your first box and free croissants 0:01:36.360 --> 0:01:39.640 for life when you visit wildgrain dot com slash podcast, 0:01:39.800 --> 0:01:43.640 or simply use the promo code podcast at checkout. This 0:01:43.680 --> 0:01:50.880 is a sponsor I absolutely embrace, so use that code. 0:01:51.000 --> 0:01:53.440 So if you spend any time thinking about American form moment, 0:01:53.560 --> 0:01:57.120 you can feel the drift. Alliances are under strain. Trade 0:01:57.200 --> 0:02:01.559 is being redefined in some blunts transactional terms. The word 0:02:01.960 --> 0:02:06.840 multilateral has become suspect in certain corners of Washington, and 0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:09.720 hovering over all of it is the central strategic fact 0:02:09.760 --> 0:02:13.359 of our time. China is not just rising, it is competing. 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:18.000 So here's the question, what is America's grand strategy? Now? 0:02:18.760 --> 0:02:20.799 It's not a slogan, not a reaction out a tweet, 0:02:20.800 --> 0:02:24.480 a strategy. My guess today has been decades inside the 0:02:24.520 --> 0:02:28.280 machinery of American foreign policy trying to answer that question. 0:02:28.320 --> 0:02:32.240 Ambassador Robert Blackwell is a former ambassador to India, former 0:02:32.280 --> 0:02:36.800 Deputy National Security Advisor under President George W. Bush, and 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:40.400 really one of the most seasoned strategic thinkers in Washington. 0:02:40.440 --> 0:02:43.560 He's now the Henry Kissinger Senior Fellow at the Council 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:47.200 on Foreign Relations, and he's out with a special Council 0:02:47.360 --> 0:02:50.600 special report. I had previewed it for the audience a 0:02:50.600 --> 0:02:52.880 few weeks ago, actually when it first came out. It's 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:57.320 called America Revived, a Grand Strategy of Resolute Global Leadership. Basically, 0:02:57.360 --> 0:02:59.280 he's laying out an argument that is both a warning 0:02:59.320 --> 0:03:01.560 and a blueprint, and I sort of viewed it as 0:03:01.680 --> 0:03:05.640 must if you're running for president, whichever side of the 0:03:05.639 --> 0:03:08.600 eye you're on. I felt this was something that I 0:03:08.639 --> 0:03:12.520 think the Ambassador is hoping it will be something these 0:03:12.560 --> 0:03:15.680 candidates read and be thinking about, as in case one 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:19.800 of them actually wins the next presidency and can implement 0:03:19.960 --> 0:03:24.080 what is a twenty first century national security strategy. So 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:27.080 Ambassaard Blackwell joins me. Now, Bob, good to. 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:29.480 See you, Good to see you. Thanks for having me. 0:03:30.400 --> 0:03:34.440 So look you have you know you're you're part of 0:03:34.440 --> 0:03:37.280 this world. That you know that some people will criticize 0:03:37.280 --> 0:03:40.400 as the uniparty, right, that there's always been a and 0:03:40.440 --> 0:03:44.000 in the Cold War there really was the quote bipartisan consensus. 0:03:44.960 --> 0:03:47.560 And you talk about this in your piece, and there 0:03:47.640 --> 0:03:51.760 is no consensus anymore on how what America's role in 0:03:51.800 --> 0:03:54.240 the world should be at the moment. And it struck 0:03:54.280 --> 0:03:56.360 me that what you were trying to do is make 0:03:56.400 --> 0:03:58.520 an argument for a new consensus. Is that fair? 0:03:59.400 --> 0:04:02.960 That is fair? The consensus of which you speak, Chuck, 0:04:04.600 --> 0:04:07.680 governed America's approach to the world from the end of 0:04:07.720 --> 0:04:12.440 World War Two to mister Trump, and it was pursued 0:04:13.480 --> 0:04:17.080 by presidents in both parties. They did it in certain 0:04:17.160 --> 0:04:21.480 different ways, but the essence was a foreign policy based 0:04:21.520 --> 0:04:27.640 on alliances which they every president thought contributed American strength, 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:32.880 to American values, which every president thought was the foundation 0:04:33.320 --> 0:04:39.360 of America's power projection into the world, and finally avoiding 0:04:40.120 --> 0:04:45.360 the emergence of a peer competitor which would dominate a 0:04:45.360 --> 0:04:52.160 crucial region. And I believe President Trump has rejected all 0:04:52.240 --> 0:04:56.560 three of those, and so that has produced the debate 0:04:57.320 --> 0:04:59.560 that were now acutely in. 0:05:01.000 --> 0:05:03.479 So let's start with before we get into what you're 0:05:03.640 --> 0:05:07.920 what you're laying out, Let's start with what everybody got 0:05:07.960 --> 0:05:12.320 wrong on China. And it just feels like what you know, 0:05:12.480 --> 0:05:15.120 I think, you know, whether it was Nixon and Carter 0:05:15.200 --> 0:05:19.320 believing you could bring them along right frankly Dido with 0:05:19.360 --> 0:05:22.400 Clinton and Bush in many ways, I would argue those four, 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:27.919 in different ways, had had big impacts. And you know, 0:05:28.000 --> 0:05:31.479 I think the assumption was that somehow, the more we 0:05:31.560 --> 0:05:36.039 brought China into the free market economy, the more the 0:05:36.120 --> 0:05:38.559 people of China would see how great a free market 0:05:38.600 --> 0:05:41.560 economy is and would reject communism, and it would over 0:05:41.600 --> 0:05:47.640 time essentially help help us win the argument, if you will, 0:05:48.240 --> 0:05:49.120 that didn't happen. 0:05:49.360 --> 0:05:56.440 Why, Well, first, I would distinguish Nixon, Kissinger from the rest. Okay, 0:05:56.680 --> 0:06:02.200 they opened up China for geopolitical reasons to balance the 0:06:02.240 --> 0:06:08.800 Soviet Union, and although out of office later Richard Nixon 0:06:09.720 --> 0:06:13.880 hoped that perhaps China would move in a more liberal direction. 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:19.160 Henry Kissinger never made that argument, and I think never 0:06:19.240 --> 0:06:26.000 believed it. But you're right there, American leaders' presidents after 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:31.480 them held the hope that over the decades, China would 0:06:31.520 --> 0:06:37.760 be integrated into this liberal international approach to world order, 0:06:38.520 --> 0:06:43.960 and they went on hoping for that up through the 0:06:44.000 --> 0:06:49.520 mid twenty tens and far past one. It should have 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:53.720 been obvious that China had a different set of objectives 0:06:53.720 --> 0:06:57.200 in mind, which was essentially to replace the United States 0:06:57.680 --> 0:07:04.360 as the primary power in the Indo Pacific. And it 0:07:04.520 --> 0:07:10.760 wasn't until the late twenty tens, after the pivot Asia 0:07:10.800 --> 0:07:18.200 had failed that finally, finally a consensus emerged that China 0:07:19.080 --> 0:07:25.960 no longer could be considered a candidate for liberal evolution. 0:07:26.480 --> 0:07:32.560 And indeed, Bob Gates makes an argument former Distinguished Secretary 0:07:32.560 --> 0:07:37.080 of Defense and a wise man makes the argument that 0:07:37.280 --> 0:07:44.120 China is the most dangerous rival in American history and 0:07:44.280 --> 0:07:48.040 is likely to remain so for years ahead. So it 0:07:48.080 --> 0:07:52.640 was a combination of wishful thinking but also not wanting 0:07:52.800 --> 0:07:58.360 to spend the money on the defense side, which would 0:07:58.960 --> 0:08:03.280 be consistent with regarding them as this dangerous rival. And 0:08:03.320 --> 0:08:06.600 we still haven't spent that money up until this day. 0:08:07.520 --> 0:08:09.880 You know, there's sort of two things that I think 0:08:09.920 --> 0:08:14.320 we in hindsight, I'm curious where would we be if 0:08:14.360 --> 0:08:17.920 we had pushed for this. One, of course, is the 0:08:18.040 --> 0:08:23.160 Transpacific Partnership, which seemed to be a great potential economic 0:08:23.320 --> 0:08:29.000 sort of bulwark against of getting other Asian allies into 0:08:29.000 --> 0:08:31.560 a trade pack to be a check on China. Then, 0:08:31.600 --> 0:08:35.280 of course, you know, essentially Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:40.439 came roaring in and essentially cowed the establishment wings of 0:08:40.480 --> 0:08:43.880 both party to back off on that. And the second 0:08:43.960 --> 0:08:48.640 is if we should have aggressively developed basically Asian What 0:08:48.760 --> 0:08:54.000 I use in shorthand is Asia NATO, the quad is 0:08:54.040 --> 0:08:56.520 sort of we're at the very beginning here. But should 0:08:56.559 --> 0:09:01.840 we have created both an economic and security packed a 0:09:01.880 --> 0:09:04.120 lot sooner? It should have been something we thought about 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:08.360 in the early odds, you know, either your time in 0:09:08.440 --> 0:09:10.720 Bush or the first term of Obama. 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:19.000 I think that the situation in Asia was not right 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:25.359 for any interest in a NATO like arrangement for two reasons. 0:09:25.679 --> 0:09:29.960 Money is, at that time they didn't regard the China 0:09:30.080 --> 0:09:35.600 threat as so serious that it was required. But the 0:09:35.720 --> 0:09:41.160 second was that from two thousand and one on, of course, 0:09:41.720 --> 0:09:46.120 the United States was preoccupied with the War on Terror 0:09:46.760 --> 0:09:55.400 and almost to the exclusion of other issues, including the 0:09:55.480 --> 0:09:59.360 rise of China. Our good friend Steve Hadley, who's one 0:09:59.400 --> 0:10:06.439 of the most ditinguished practitioners practitioners in decades, said in public, 0:10:06.559 --> 0:10:11.880 we just got China wrong, and we got Shei Jinping wrong. 0:10:12.440 --> 0:10:16.520 And I think the primary reason that we got him 0:10:16.520 --> 0:10:22.120 wrong is that to this day we have trouble understanding 0:10:22.760 --> 0:10:28.280 how Marxist Chi Jinping really is. It's so foreign to 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:31.600 the way we think of the world. And there's hardly 0:10:31.640 --> 0:10:37.200 anybody still alive who remembers that very Marxist Soviet Union. 0:10:37.720 --> 0:10:41.880 Its last three and a half decades was a gradual 0:10:43.320 --> 0:10:50.680 slump from that acute Marxism. And what does Marxism tell 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:56.720 Hi Jinping? That China is not safe in the world 0:10:57.800 --> 0:11:02.320 without leading it because the other forces will try to 0:11:02.360 --> 0:11:06.280 do China in And so that's I think his policy, 0:11:06.480 --> 0:11:13.280 and we still have not developed the will to combat 0:11:13.320 --> 0:11:18.240 it with increases in the defense budget and so forth. 0:11:18.240 --> 0:11:21.800 I'll just give you one example, but it is an 0:11:21.840 --> 0:11:29.319 example of the limp policies of liberal internationalism. The militarization 0:11:29.800 --> 0:11:35.880 of the artificial islands in the South China Sea. We 0:11:35.920 --> 0:11:42.840 could see that coming. We watched it, indeed, perhaps spectators, Yeah, 0:11:43.000 --> 0:11:47.880 we were spectators. Wow, And I think we backed away 0:11:47.920 --> 0:11:51.679 from the danger of a collision with China, and in 0:11:51.720 --> 0:11:58.360 that period we were much stronger in naval forces in 0:11:58.640 --> 0:12:01.439 the South China Sea so forth, but we just let 0:12:01.520 --> 0:12:08.240 it happen. We are our limp reaction to the twenty 0:12:08.480 --> 0:12:15.400 fourteen Russian acquisition of Ukraine. I have a great long list, 0:12:16.000 --> 0:12:22.080 but liberal internationalism became weaker and weaker in its expression, 0:12:23.000 --> 0:12:26.679 and China, I think, was in bold and buy that 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:31.720 and has taken advantage of it. The last few liberal 0:12:31.840 --> 0:12:38.559 internationalist presidencies I think would be unrecognizable to Harry Truman, 0:12:39.480 --> 0:12:43.280 or to Jack Kennedy, or to Scoop Jackson, or to 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:50.040 Dan moynihan and so forth. They have been weak in 0:12:50.120 --> 0:12:54.440 their reaction to the challenges that we face around the globe. 0:12:55.160 --> 0:12:57.800 So you have to live in the I always joke, 0:12:58.160 --> 0:12:59.439 he used to say this all the time. It meet 0:12:59.480 --> 0:13:01.439 the press for politics as it is not as I 0:13:01.480 --> 0:13:04.960 wish it were. So we can we know, we could 0:13:05.120 --> 0:13:07.040 talk about what we could have done, should have done, 0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:10.000 et cetera. Now the question is now what do we do? 0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:14.679 And I want to start with there hasn't There's been 0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:18.480 a lot of in the foreign policy news world a 0:13:18.520 --> 0:13:23.559 lot of intrigue, concern uh, and focus a little bit 0:13:23.600 --> 0:13:26.640 on on the purge she's been doing of his military. 0:13:27.280 --> 0:13:30.199 What do you make of that? And how should we 0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:32.800 what do you how do you view that? What's what 0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:35.760 do you think is going on internally in China's political 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:36.720 leadership at the moment? 0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:41.000 First, the first thing that one should say, since there's 0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:45.600 so much commentary, is that not one of the people 0:13:45.600 --> 0:13:49.480 who are writing foreign affairs articles and op eds know 0:13:50.040 --> 0:13:53.040 what it means. So it's all speculation. 0:13:53.960 --> 0:13:55.960 Is our intelligence that week in China? 0:13:56.320 --> 0:14:01.319 Well, in order to know since they're such a small circle, 0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:04.040 and it's smaller now than it was a month ago, 0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:08.680 it's such a small circle, it would be wonderful if 0:14:08.720 --> 0:14:13.120 we had penetrated the very inner workings of the five 0:14:13.280 --> 0:14:16.480 men who made decisions led by Shi Jinping. 0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:19.640 Sounds like we might have gotten close which got him paranoid. 0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:24.760 Well, let me just say it is when a general 0:14:24.840 --> 0:14:30.560 is charged with leaking nuclear secrets to the Americans. Well, 0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:34.520 hooray if it's actually true. But there are a variety 0:14:34.560 --> 0:14:38.560 of other interpretations one could make in the Chinese government 0:14:38.600 --> 0:14:44.920 saying that, so we are hopefully the president is receiving 0:14:45.720 --> 0:14:49.320 from the intelligence community their best judgment of what's going on, 0:14:50.240 --> 0:14:56.000 and they're speculating less how much they know. I'mdoubtful they 0:14:56.240 --> 0:15:00.240 have penetrated the inner inner workings. So there are two 0:15:02.280 --> 0:15:11.040 biometrically opposed explanations. One is that he's getting the military 0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:16.120 ready for action, as he said as soon as two 0:15:16.160 --> 0:15:24.560 thousand and seven against Taiwan twenty twenty seven. That's theory one, 0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:33.120 and he's the older generations are corrupt and not warriors, 0:15:33.160 --> 0:15:37.680 to use a word that's now prevalent in Washington. The 0:15:37.720 --> 0:15:46.640 second is that this elderly leadership of the PLA began, 0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:53.320 perhaps in the faintest possible way, to dissent from the 0:15:53.320 --> 0:15:56.720 path that Chi Jinping is on, which is more and 0:15:56.800 --> 0:16:01.320 more dominated by this single personality. I don't nobody knows 0:16:01.640 --> 0:16:05.000 which of those it is, or a combination of the two, 0:16:05.800 --> 0:16:10.200 but I think we do have to take seriously the 0:16:10.200 --> 0:16:16.800 military threat that China represents with respect to Taiwan, which 0:16:16.840 --> 0:16:21.640 they're working very hard on every single day. And one 0:16:21.680 --> 0:16:24.240 of the things that's happened during this period that we've 0:16:24.280 --> 0:16:29.120 been discussing, let's say, the last fifteen to twenty years, 0:16:29.200 --> 0:16:33.720 is they've dramatically narrowed the gap between our two militaries, 0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:40.040 especially concerning Taiwan contingencies, and we have to do something 0:16:40.080 --> 0:16:44.720 about that. Deterrence today is the weakest it's ever been 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:48.800 with respect to deterring China from acting on Taiwan. 0:16:50.560 --> 0:16:54.840 Well, I'm going to positive theory to you tell me 0:16:54.920 --> 0:17:00.240 if I'm either too cynical and fully fully respect that. 0:17:00.720 --> 0:17:06.240 But my concern is that she is on the clock 0:17:06.359 --> 0:17:10.959 because he knows that that Trump might let him have Taiwan. 0:17:11.960 --> 0:17:15.040 It seems to be it's on the negotiating table. Trump 0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:17.800 has seemed to have allowed that to be. That we 0:17:17.840 --> 0:17:21.920 could quote change our posture starting, you know, no longer 0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:28.800 support independence, things like that. What's what's a worse outcome 0:17:30.040 --> 0:17:32.520 that we just sort of let it happen and they 0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:37.160 and they get Taiwan without really firing a shot if 0:17:37.200 --> 0:17:40.320 there is a fight, but they get it without us, 0:17:40.840 --> 0:17:44.280 you know, and we sort of help but not enough 0:17:44.400 --> 0:17:49.520 and they get it anyway. Or is it something we 0:17:49.520 --> 0:17:52.439 should be fighting all the way to stop? 0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:58.080 Well, you you at the end highlighted the major issue 0:17:58.119 --> 0:18:03.080 which is not really discussed in public, even in the elite, 0:18:03.200 --> 0:18:11.880 which is the question that Britain asked itself in nineteen 0:18:12.040 --> 0:18:15.359 thirty nine, are we willing to go to war with 0:18:15.520 --> 0:18:21.440 Germany over Poland? And the question not asked around Washington 0:18:21.600 --> 0:18:25.879 in all of the palaver is are we willing to 0:18:26.000 --> 0:18:31.400 go to war with China over Taiwan? Yes? Or no? 0:18:32.119 --> 0:18:37.800 And an American president should know that he doesn't have 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:41.480 to announce it, although Joe Biden did for sure. 0:18:41.359 --> 0:18:44.880 Did was that a work? That was the first time 0:18:44.920 --> 0:18:47.320 an American president ever done that right? 0:18:47.520 --> 0:18:50.960 And at each time, as we know, the State Department 0:18:51.040 --> 0:18:55.760 walked it back the next morning. But I think we 0:18:55.840 --> 0:19:01.000 do have some evidence that Biden would go to with 0:19:01.280 --> 0:19:06.000 China over Taiwan. I think you're right that there is 0:19:06.040 --> 0:19:10.720 no such evidence with respect to President Trump, and he 0:19:10.760 --> 0:19:15.880 has said things like Taiwan has a little dot on 0:19:15.920 --> 0:19:20.920 the coast of China which stole all of our chip 0:19:21.000 --> 0:19:26.640 technology and so forth. So would he go to war 0:19:26.760 --> 0:19:31.200 with China over Taiwan? I think that at least there's 0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:39.679 a doubt in his case, and President Shi Jinping may 0:19:39.800 --> 0:19:43.360 want to test the hypothesis, maybe. 0:19:43.040 --> 0:19:44.840 Not with a I mean if I were sitting in 0:19:44.840 --> 0:19:47.000 his shoes. And again, I don't want this to happen. 0:19:47.760 --> 0:19:50.680 I wouldn't wait for another American president to do this, 0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:52.879 I'd do it under this one. 0:19:53.240 --> 0:19:57.320 But it's still nobody knows what an American president is 0:19:57.359 --> 0:20:02.280 going to do before he does. And this is particularly 0:20:02.560 --> 0:20:06.800 i might say erratic American president. He can't, even with 0:20:08.200 --> 0:20:14.320 the perhaps footprints in the sand, heading toward a quiet 0:20:14.720 --> 0:20:19.880 reaction to such Chinese aggression. He can't be sure. And 0:20:20.800 --> 0:20:25.800 using his military force is a great gamble. It hasn't 0:20:26.000 --> 0:20:29.760 been in combat since the late nineteen seventies, it's corrupt 0:20:29.800 --> 0:20:34.520 and all the rest. So what if he tries and fails? 0:20:35.280 --> 0:20:40.480 So making that decision to say okay, there's not going 0:20:40.520 --> 0:20:45.879 to be a better moment than now go. I wouldn't 0:20:45.920 --> 0:20:48.840 want to predict what he'll say, but it's certainly true 0:20:49.160 --> 0:20:54.240 de terrence is weaker under President Trump. There's no doubt 0:20:54.240 --> 0:20:54.679 about that. 0:20:54.720 --> 0:20:56.960 Any If you were in Taiwan, would you be more 0:20:57.000 --> 0:21:00.159 concerned now under the current situation than you've ever been? 0:21:00.880 --> 0:21:03.240 Yes? Yeah, absolutely. 0:21:06.600 --> 0:21:11.720 I've always thought the biggest problem American political leaders have 0:21:11.800 --> 0:21:15.480 on the Taiwan issue is, particularly with the memory of 0:21:14.960 --> 0:21:20.919 Iraq and Afghanistan still still recent enough for enough people 0:21:21.880 --> 0:21:24.520 that you'd have a hard time convincing the country that 0:21:24.560 --> 0:21:28.800 it's worth going to war over over Taiwan. I mean, 0:21:29.359 --> 0:21:35.440 you see, we're look, Americans are always instinctively isolationists, and 0:21:35.440 --> 0:21:37.360 and then you know, we can be talked into it. 0:21:37.400 --> 0:21:43.679 But I think that's a tall political order, Bob, it is. 0:21:43.680 --> 0:21:51.560 I agreedy. But if the president is suddenly informed that 0:21:52.800 --> 0:21:59.520 China has started military action against Taiwan, then what does 0:21:59.520 --> 0:22:03.480 he do. Well, he can try to avoid responsibility, as 0:22:03.560 --> 0:22:05.919 presidents have done and said, well, the Congress has to 0:22:06.920 --> 0:22:11.480 decide this, not me, but there'll be pressure. There'll be 0:22:11.600 --> 0:22:15.679 pressure on him to make a decision, and the longer 0:22:15.680 --> 0:22:21.720 he waits, the more likely we won't intervene. So he 0:22:21.840 --> 0:22:25.320 has that time to try to persuade the American people. 0:22:25.840 --> 0:22:30.639 I believe, though, with you, that if it were to 0:22:30.760 --> 0:22:35.560 happen and he were to ask the American people, should 0:22:35.560 --> 0:22:39.639 I go to war with China, a majority is likely 0:22:39.880 --> 0:22:47.639 to say no, it's too far away, it's not important enough. 0:22:48.600 --> 0:22:53.480 We seem to have a recent inclination to lose wars. No. 0:22:54.240 --> 0:22:58.879 But that's where American leadership comes in and explains to 0:22:58.960 --> 0:23:04.320 the American people, here's why we're going to war. Uh. 0:23:04.680 --> 0:23:07.440 But it's a it will be a tough sell. Just again, 0:23:07.520 --> 0:23:11.719 to use a historical analogy, we will never know whether 0:23:13.400 --> 0:23:18.359 Fdr WU and the American Congress would have declared war 0:23:18.640 --> 0:23:23.520 on Germany. On Germany once Pearl Harbor had occurred, if 0:23:23.600 --> 0:23:28.440 Hitler hadn't declared war on US first, because the the 0:23:28.960 --> 0:23:35.720 the body of of of opinion was, let's concentrate on Japan. 0:23:35.920 --> 0:23:39.400 They're the ones who attacked US. Germany hasn't attacked US. 0:23:39.440 --> 0:23:44.440 And that decision by Hitler to declare war four days 0:23:44.520 --> 0:23:49.639 later after Pearl Harbor, that's what marri lea Guardia called 0:23:49.640 --> 0:23:53.919 a doozy. Uh. That's that's a historic doozy. 0:23:56.560 --> 0:23:58.720 This episode of the Chuck Podcast is being brought to 0:23:58.720 --> 0:24:01.000 you by Quins. As you you know, a well built 0:24:01.160 --> 0:24:03.800 wardrobe is about the pieces that work together, hold up 0:24:03.840 --> 0:24:07.040 over time, and frankly allow you to be flexible and 0:24:07.119 --> 0:24:11.280 sort of business casual, to say social casual. Quins does 0:24:11.280 --> 0:24:14.359 this really well. They have premium material, thoughtful design, and 0:24:14.400 --> 0:24:17.280 some everyday staples that feel easy to wear, easy to 0:24:17.320 --> 0:24:20.359 rely on even as the weather shifts. I've got some 0:24:20.400 --> 0:24:23.240 sweaters from Quints. I love them. I can use them 0:24:23.240 --> 0:24:25.560 for here on the podcast, I can do a business 0:24:25.600 --> 0:24:27.960 meeting with them. They have every day essentials. I love 0:24:28.000 --> 0:24:30.399 the quality so far. It's lasting really well. I've had 0:24:30.440 --> 0:24:33.240 it for a while. They have organic cotton sweaters, polos 0:24:33.280 --> 0:24:36.080 for every occasion. They have some nice jackets, including you know, 0:24:36.200 --> 0:24:38.879 lighter jackets as things I hope warm up at some 0:24:38.920 --> 0:24:41.159 point down here in the Mid Atlantic. The list goes on. 0:24:41.480 --> 0:24:43.199 All of it is built to hold up for you 0:24:43.280 --> 0:24:45.959 to wear this stuff all the time, right, Not just 0:24:45.960 --> 0:24:48.360 something you pull out once a quarter to look nice 0:24:48.400 --> 0:24:50.920 at work. No stuff that you might wear every week. 0:24:51.000 --> 0:24:54.240 They only partner with factories that meet some rigorous standards 0:24:54.240 --> 0:24:58.040 for crashmanship and ethical product. Bottom line, I wear it. 0:24:58.280 --> 0:25:00.840 I'm happy. It's been really good. It isn't going to 0:25:00.920 --> 0:25:04.480 break the bank. So refresh your wardrobe with Quints. Go 0:25:04.560 --> 0:25:08.280 to quins dot com slash chuck for free shipping on 0:25:08.320 --> 0:25:10.880 your order and a three hundred and sixty five day 0:25:10.920 --> 0:25:13.920 opportunity to return it. Now available in Canada too. That's 0:25:14.080 --> 0:25:19.399 qui NC dot com slash chuck, free shipping, three hundred 0:25:19.400 --> 0:25:23.560 and sixty five day returns. Quints dot com slash chuck. 0:25:24.440 --> 0:25:27.080 Do you hate hangovers, We'll say goodbye to hangovers. Out 0:25:27.080 --> 0:25:29.640 of Office gives you the social buzz without the next 0:25:29.720 --> 0:25:32.040 day regret. They're best selling out of office gummies were 0:25:32.040 --> 0:25:34.920 designed to provide a mild, relaxing buzz, boost your mood, 0:25:35.040 --> 0:25:38.600 and enhance creativity and relaxation. With five different strengths, you 0:25:38.600 --> 0:25:40.800 can tailor the dose to fit your vibe, from a 0:25:40.880 --> 0:25:45.600 gentle one point five milligram microdose to their newest fifteen 0:25:45.640 --> 0:25:49.720 milligram gummy for a more elevated experience. Their THHC beverages 0:25:49.760 --> 0:25:52.920 and gummies are a modern, mindful alternative to a glass 0:25:52.960 --> 0:25:55.160 of wine or a cocktail. And I'll tell you this, 0:25:55.359 --> 0:25:58.520 I've given up booze. I don't like the hangovers. I 0:25:58.600 --> 0:26:01.880 prefer the gummy. It's variance. Soul is a wellness brand 0:26:01.920 --> 0:26:04.760 that believes feeling good should be fun and easy. Soul 0:26:04.840 --> 0:26:08.840 specializes in delicious hemp derived THHC and CBD products, all 0:26:08.880 --> 0:26:11.840 designed to boost your mood and simply help you unwind 0:26:12.200 --> 0:26:14.320 so if you struggle to switch off at night. Sol 0:26:14.359 --> 0:26:17.240 also as a variety of products specifically designed to just 0:26:17.320 --> 0:26:19.840 simply help you get a better night's sleep, including their 0:26:19.880 --> 0:26:23.080 top selling sleepy gummies. It's a fan favorite for deep 0:26:23.280 --> 0:26:26.200 restorative sleep. So bring on the good vibes and treat 0:26:26.240 --> 0:26:29.639 yourself to Soul today. Right now, Soul is offering my 0:26:29.720 --> 0:26:32.960 audience thirty percent off your entire order. So go to 0:26:33.000 --> 0:26:36.640 get sold dot Com use the promo code toodcast. Don't 0:26:36.640 --> 0:26:40.960 forget that code. That's getsold dot Com promo code toodcast 0:26:41.080 --> 0:26:42.600 for thirty percent off. 0:26:46.359 --> 0:26:46.600 Yeah. 0:26:46.600 --> 0:26:51.600 Well, and obviously a giant misstep by the Germans in 0:26:51.640 --> 0:26:56.760 that time. So let's talk about let's assume we get 0:26:56.800 --> 0:27:02.720 through this term without without being fake, without anybody being 0:27:02.760 --> 0:27:06.879 faced with the Taiwan decision. What are you advising the 0:27:06.920 --> 0:27:09.439 next president to do in twenty twenty nine or what 0:27:09.480 --> 0:27:12.160 do you hope the next president is thinking about come 0:27:12.200 --> 0:27:13.000 twenty twenty nine. 0:27:14.160 --> 0:27:21.879 Well, I myself am an optimist in several respects with 0:27:22.000 --> 0:27:28.760 respect to your question. First of all, I think President 0:27:28.840 --> 0:27:35.960 Trump is a unique singular figure in American history, and 0:27:36.080 --> 0:27:41.359 that he will take much of trump Ism with him 0:27:41.880 --> 0:27:47.440 as he goes out the door, in particular, in particular 0:27:48.160 --> 0:27:56.480 the erratic behavior that he prefers, the contempt for America's alliances, 0:27:57.480 --> 0:28:01.400 the statement that American values have no place in American 0:28:01.440 --> 0:28:05.400 foreign policy, and so forth. Those are so un American 0:28:05.920 --> 0:28:08.080 those views that I think he takes them out the 0:28:08.119 --> 0:28:08.720 door with it. 0:28:09.160 --> 0:28:12.080 You're that confident a president JD. Vance would throw all 0:28:12.080 --> 0:28:12.480 that away? 0:28:13.119 --> 0:28:16.840 Yes, well, I'm speculating. But let me say what I 0:28:16.880 --> 0:28:22.359 think he won't throw away, which is American nationalism, which 0:28:23.840 --> 0:28:30.000 has dominated American grand strategy since the founding. 0:28:31.160 --> 0:28:33.000 I'm glad you point this out. I try to tell 0:28:33.000 --> 0:28:35.879 people the Cold War was an outlier in American history 0:28:36.040 --> 0:28:43.880 in a variety of ways, political parties, political extremism, isolationism, 0:28:43.920 --> 0:28:49.520 and nationalism versus multilateralism. I mean, and unfortunately or fortunately, 0:28:49.520 --> 0:28:51.880 we get to live in that era and we saw, hey, 0:28:51.920 --> 0:28:56.200 that's pretty good. Erica really benefited from this era of multilateralism, 0:28:56.560 --> 0:28:58.560 which makes it a head scratcher. Why would want to 0:28:58.600 --> 0:28:58.959 give it up? 0:29:00.160 --> 0:29:07.959 Became weaker? As I tried to say earlier. And I 0:29:08.000 --> 0:29:12.040 can't be sure obviously who the Republican nominee would be 0:29:12.240 --> 0:29:15.040