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The word 35 00:02:01,960 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 1: multilateral has become suspect in certain corners of Washington, and 36 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 1: hovering over all of it is the central strategic fact 37 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:13,359 Speaker 1: of our time. China is not just rising, it is competing. 38 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:18,000 Speaker 1: So here's the question, what is America's grand strategy? Now? 39 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:20,799 Speaker 1: It's not a slogan, not a reaction out a tweet, 40 00:02:20,800 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 1: a strategy. My guess today has been decades inside the 41 00:02:24,520 --> 00:02:28,280 Speaker 1: machinery of American foreign policy trying to answer that question. 42 00:02:28,320 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 1: Ambassador Robert Blackwell is a former ambassador to India, former 43 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:36,800 Speaker 1: Deputy National Security Advisor under President George W. Bush, and 44 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:40,400 Speaker 1: really one of the most seasoned strategic thinkers in Washington. 45 00:02:40,440 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 1: He's now the Henry Kissinger Senior Fellow at the Council 46 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:47,200 Speaker 1: on Foreign Relations, and he's out with a special Council 47 00:02:47,360 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 1: special report. I had previewed it for the audience a 48 00:02:50,600 --> 00:02:52,880 Speaker 1: few weeks ago, actually when it first came out. It's 49 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 1: called America Revived, a Grand Strategy of Resolute Global Leadership. Basically, 50 00:02:57,360 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 1: he's laying out an argument that is both a warning 51 00:02:59,320 --> 00:03:01,560 Speaker 1: and a blueprint, and I sort of viewed it as 52 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:05,640 Speaker 1: must if you're running for president, whichever side of the 53 00:03:05,639 --> 00:03:08,600 Speaker 1: eye you're on. I felt this was something that I 54 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:12,520 Speaker 1: think the Ambassador is hoping it will be something these 55 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:15,680 Speaker 1: candidates read and be thinking about, as in case one 56 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:19,800 Speaker 1: of them actually wins the next presidency and can implement 57 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:24,080 Speaker 1: what is a twenty first century national security strategy. So 58 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 1: Ambassaard Blackwell joins me. Now, Bob, good to. 59 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 2: See you, Good to see you. Thanks for having me. 60 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:34,440 Speaker 1: So look you have you know you're you're part of 61 00:03:34,440 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 1: this world. That you know that some people will criticize 62 00:03:37,280 --> 00:03:40,400 Speaker 1: as the uniparty, right, that there's always been a and 63 00:03:40,440 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 1: in the Cold War there really was the quote bipartisan consensus. 64 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:47,560 Speaker 1: And you talk about this in your piece, and there 65 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 1: is no consensus anymore on how what America's role in 66 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:54,240 Speaker 1: the world should be at the moment. And it struck 67 00:03:54,280 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 1: me that what you were trying to do is make 68 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:58,520 Speaker 1: an argument for a new consensus. Is that fair? 69 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:02,960 Speaker 2: That is fair? The consensus of which you speak, Chuck, 70 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 2: governed America's approach to the world from the end of 71 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 2: World War Two to mister Trump, and it was pursued 72 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:17,080 Speaker 2: by presidents in both parties. They did it in certain 73 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:21,480 Speaker 2: different ways, but the essence was a foreign policy based 74 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 2: on alliances which they every president thought contributed American strength, 75 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 2: to American values, which every president thought was the foundation 76 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:39,360 Speaker 2: of America's power projection into the world, and finally avoiding 77 00:04:40,120 --> 00:04:45,360 Speaker 2: the emergence of a peer competitor which would dominate a 78 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:52,160 Speaker 2: crucial region. And I believe President Trump has rejected all 79 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:56,560 Speaker 2: three of those, and so that has produced the debate 80 00:04:57,320 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 2: that were now acutely in. 81 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:03,479 Speaker 1: So let's start with before we get into what you're 82 00:05:03,640 --> 00:05:07,920 Speaker 1: what you're laying out, Let's start with what everybody got 83 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:12,320 Speaker 1: wrong on China. And it just feels like what you know, 84 00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:15,120 Speaker 1: I think, you know, whether it was Nixon and Carter 85 00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:19,320 Speaker 1: believing you could bring them along right frankly Dido with 86 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 1: Clinton and Bush in many ways, I would argue those four, 87 00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:27,919 Speaker 1: in different ways, had had big impacts. And you know, 88 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:31,479 Speaker 1: I think the assumption was that somehow, the more we 89 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:36,039 Speaker 1: brought China into the free market economy, the more the 90 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:38,559 Speaker 1: people of China would see how great a free market 91 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:41,560 Speaker 1: economy is and would reject communism, and it would over 92 00:05:41,600 --> 00:05:47,640 Speaker 1: time essentially help help us win the argument, if you will, 93 00:05:48,240 --> 00:05:49,120 Speaker 1: that didn't happen. 94 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 2: Why, Well, first, I would distinguish Nixon, Kissinger from the rest. Okay, 95 00:05:56,680 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 2: they opened up China for geopolitical reasons to balance the 96 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:08,800 Speaker 2: Soviet Union, and although out of office later Richard Nixon 97 00:06:09,720 --> 00:06:13,880 Speaker 2: hoped that perhaps China would move in a more liberal direction. 98 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:19,160 Speaker 2: Henry Kissinger never made that argument, and I think never 99 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:26,000 Speaker 2: believed it. But you're right there, American leaders' presidents after 100 00:06:26,080 --> 00:06:31,480 Speaker 2: them held the hope that over the decades, China would 101 00:06:31,520 --> 00:06:37,760 Speaker 2: be integrated into this liberal international approach to world order, 102 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:43,960 Speaker 2: and they went on hoping for that up through the 103 00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 2: mid twenty tens and far past one. It should have 104 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:53,720 Speaker 2: been obvious that China had a different set of objectives 105 00:06:53,720 --> 00:06:57,200 Speaker 2: in mind, which was essentially to replace the United States 106 00:06:57,680 --> 00:07:04,360 Speaker 2: as the primary power in the Indo Pacific. And it 107 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:10,760 Speaker 2: wasn't until the late twenty tens, after the pivot Asia 108 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 2: had failed that finally, finally a consensus emerged that China 109 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:25,960 Speaker 2: no longer could be considered a candidate for liberal evolution. 110 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:32,560 Speaker 2: And indeed, Bob Gates makes an argument former Distinguished Secretary 111 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:37,080 Speaker 2: of Defense and a wise man makes the argument that 112 00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:44,120 Speaker 2: China is the most dangerous rival in American history and 113 00:07:44,280 --> 00:07:48,040 Speaker 2: is likely to remain so for years ahead. So it 114 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:52,640 Speaker 2: was a combination of wishful thinking but also not wanting 115 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 2: to spend the money on the defense side, which would 116 00:07:58,960 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 2: be consistent with regarding them as this dangerous rival. And 117 00:08:03,320 --> 00:08:06,600 Speaker 2: we still haven't spent that money up until this day. 118 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 1: You know, there's sort of two things that I think 119 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:14,320 Speaker 1: we in hindsight, I'm curious where would we be if 120 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 1: we had pushed for this. One, of course, is the 121 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:23,160 Speaker 1: Transpacific Partnership, which seemed to be a great potential economic 122 00:08:23,320 --> 00:08:29,000 Speaker 1: sort of bulwark against of getting other Asian allies into 123 00:08:29,000 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 1: a trade pack to be a check on China. Then, 124 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 1: of course, you know, essentially Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump 125 00:08:35,800 --> 00:08:40,439 Speaker 1: came roaring in and essentially cowed the establishment wings of 126 00:08:40,480 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 1: both party to back off on that. And the second 127 00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:48,640 Speaker 1: is if we should have aggressively developed basically Asian What 128 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:54,000 Speaker 1: I use in shorthand is Asia NATO, the quad is 129 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:56,520 Speaker 1: sort of we're at the very beginning here. But should 130 00:08:56,559 --> 00:09:01,840 Speaker 1: we have created both an economic and security packed a 131 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 1: lot sooner? It should have been something we thought about 132 00:09:04,160 --> 00:09:08,360 Speaker 1: in the early odds, you know, either your time in 133 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:10,720 Speaker 1: Bush or the first term of Obama. 134 00:09:12,480 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 2: I think that the situation in Asia was not right 135 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:25,359 Speaker 2: for any interest in a NATO like arrangement for two reasons. 136 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:29,960 Speaker 2: Money is, at that time they didn't regard the China 137 00:09:30,080 --> 00:09:35,600 Speaker 2: threat as so serious that it was required. But the 138 00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:41,160 Speaker 2: second was that from two thousand and one on, of course, 139 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 2: the United States was preoccupied with the War on Terror 140 00:09:46,760 --> 00:09:55,400 Speaker 2: and almost to the exclusion of other issues, including the 141 00:09:55,480 --> 00:09:59,360 Speaker 2: rise of China. Our good friend Steve Hadley, who's one 142 00:09:59,400 --> 00:10:06,439 Speaker 2: of the most ditinguished practitioners practitioners in decades, said in public, 143 00:10:06,559 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 2: we just got China wrong, and we got Shei Jinping wrong. 144 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:16,520 Speaker 2: And I think the primary reason that we got him 145 00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:22,120 Speaker 2: wrong is that to this day we have trouble understanding 146 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 2: how Marxist Chi Jinping really is. It's so foreign to 147 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 2: the way we think of the world. And there's hardly 148 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:37,200 Speaker 2: anybody still alive who remembers that very Marxist Soviet Union. 149 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 2: Its last three and a half decades was a gradual 150 00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:50,680 Speaker 2: slump from that acute Marxism. And what does Marxism tell 151 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:56,720 Speaker 2: Hi Jinping? That China is not safe in the world 152 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:02,320 Speaker 2: without leading it because the other forces will try to 153 00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:06,280 Speaker 2: do China in And so that's I think his policy, 154 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 2: and we still have not developed the will to combat 155 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 2: it with increases in the defense budget and so forth. 156 00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:21,800 Speaker 2: I'll just give you one example, but it is an 157 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:29,319 Speaker 2: example of the limp policies of liberal internationalism. The militarization 158 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:35,880 Speaker 2: of the artificial islands in the South China Sea. We 159 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:42,840 Speaker 2: could see that coming. We watched it, indeed, perhaps spectators, Yeah, 160 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 2: we were spectators. Wow, And I think we backed away 161 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:51,679 Speaker 2: from the danger of a collision with China, and in 162 00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 2: that period we were much stronger in naval forces in 163 00:11:58,640 --> 00:12:01,439 Speaker 2: the South China Sea so forth, but we just let 164 00:12:01,520 --> 00:12:08,240 Speaker 2: it happen. We are our limp reaction to the twenty 165 00:12:08,480 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 2: fourteen Russian acquisition of Ukraine. I have a great long list, 166 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:22,080 Speaker 2: but liberal internationalism became weaker and weaker in its expression, 167 00:12:23,000 --> 00:12:26,679 Speaker 2: and China, I think, was in bold and buy that 168 00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:31,720 Speaker 2: and has taken advantage of it. The last few liberal 169 00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:38,559 Speaker 2: internationalist presidencies I think would be unrecognizable to Harry Truman, 170 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 2: or to Jack Kennedy, or to Scoop Jackson, or to 171 00:12:43,360 --> 00:12:50,040 Speaker 2: Dan moynihan and so forth. They have been weak in 172 00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:54,440 Speaker 2: their reaction to the challenges that we face around the globe. 173 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: So you have to live in the I always joke, 174 00:12:58,160 --> 00:12:59,439 Speaker 1: he used to say this all the time. It meet 175 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:01,439 Speaker 1: the press for politics as it is not as I 176 00:13:01,480 --> 00:13:04,960 Speaker 1: wish it were. So we can we know, we could 177 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:07,040 Speaker 1: talk about what we could have done, should have done, 178 00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:10,000 Speaker 1: et cetera. Now the question is now what do we do? 179 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:14,679 Speaker 1: And I want to start with there hasn't There's been 180 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 1: a lot of in the foreign policy news world a 181 00:13:18,520 --> 00:13:23,559 Speaker 1: lot of intrigue, concern uh, and focus a little bit 182 00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:26,640 Speaker 1: on on the purge she's been doing of his military. 183 00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:30,199 Speaker 1: What do you make of that? And how should we 184 00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 1: what do you how do you view that? What's what 185 00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:35,760 Speaker 1: do you think is going on internally in China's political 186 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:36,720 Speaker 1: leadership at the moment? 187 00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:41,000 Speaker 2: First, the first thing that one should say, since there's 188 00:13:41,040 --> 00:13:45,600 Speaker 2: so much commentary, is that not one of the people 189 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:49,480 Speaker 2: who are writing foreign affairs articles and op eds know 190 00:13:50,040 --> 00:13:53,040 Speaker 2: what it means. So it's all speculation. 191 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:55,960 Speaker 1: Is our intelligence that week in China? 192 00:13:56,320 --> 00:14:01,319 Speaker 2: Well, in order to know since they're such a small circle, 193 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:04,040 Speaker 2: and it's smaller now than it was a month ago, 194 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:08,680 Speaker 2: it's such a small circle, it would be wonderful if 195 00:14:08,720 --> 00:14:13,120 Speaker 2: we had penetrated the very inner workings of the five 196 00:14:13,280 --> 00:14:16,480 Speaker 2: men who made decisions led by Shi Jinping. 197 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 1: Sounds like we might have gotten close which got him paranoid. 198 00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 2: Well, let me just say it is when a general 199 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 2: is charged with leaking nuclear secrets to the Americans. Well, 200 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:34,520 Speaker 2: hooray if it's actually true. But there are a variety 201 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 2: of other interpretations one could make in the Chinese government 202 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:44,920 Speaker 2: saying that, so we are hopefully the president is receiving 203 00:14:45,720 --> 00:14:49,320 Speaker 2: from the intelligence community their best judgment of what's going on, 204 00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:56,000 Speaker 2: and they're speculating less how much they know. I'mdoubtful they 205 00:14:56,240 --> 00:15:00,240 Speaker 2: have penetrated the inner inner workings. So there are two 206 00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 2: biometrically opposed explanations. One is that he's getting the military 207 00:15:11,320 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 2: ready for action, as he said as soon as two 208 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 2: thousand and seven against Taiwan twenty twenty seven. That's theory one, 209 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:33,120 Speaker 2: and he's the older generations are corrupt and not warriors, 210 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:37,680 Speaker 2: to use a word that's now prevalent in Washington. The 211 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 2: second is that this elderly leadership of the PLA began, 212 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 2: perhaps in the faintest possible way, to dissent from the 213 00:15:53,320 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 2: path that Chi Jinping is on, which is more and 214 00:15:56,800 --> 00:16:01,320 Speaker 2: more dominated by this single personality. I don't nobody knows 215 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 2: which of those it is, or a combination of the two, 216 00:16:05,800 --> 00:16:10,200 Speaker 2: but I think we do have to take seriously the 217 00:16:10,200 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 2: military threat that China represents with respect to Taiwan, which 218 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:21,640 Speaker 2: they're working very hard on every single day. And one 219 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 2: of the things that's happened during this period that we've 220 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:29,120 Speaker 2: been discussing, let's say, the last fifteen to twenty years, 221 00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:33,720 Speaker 2: is they've dramatically narrowed the gap between our two militaries, 222 00:16:33,840 --> 00:16:40,040 Speaker 2: especially concerning Taiwan contingencies, and we have to do something 223 00:16:40,080 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 2: about that. Deterrence today is the weakest it's ever been 224 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:48,800 Speaker 2: with respect to deterring China from acting on Taiwan. 225 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:54,840 Speaker 1: Well, I'm going to positive theory to you tell me 226 00:16:54,920 --> 00:17:00,240 Speaker 1: if I'm either too cynical and fully fully respect that. 227 00:17:00,720 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 1: But my concern is that she is on the clock 228 00:17:06,359 --> 00:17:10,959 Speaker 1: because he knows that that Trump might let him have Taiwan. 229 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:15,040 Speaker 1: It seems to be it's on the negotiating table. Trump 230 00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 1: has seemed to have allowed that to be. That we 231 00:17:17,840 --> 00:17:21,920 Speaker 1: could quote change our posture starting, you know, no longer 232 00:17:21,960 --> 00:17:28,800 Speaker 1: support independence, things like that. What's what's a worse outcome 233 00:17:30,040 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 1: that we just sort of let it happen and they 234 00:17:32,560 --> 00:17:37,160 Speaker 1: and they get Taiwan without really firing a shot if 235 00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:40,320 Speaker 1: there is a fight, but they get it without us, 236 00:17:40,840 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 1: you know, and we sort of help but not enough 237 00:17:44,400 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 1: and they get it anyway. Or is it something we 238 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:52,439 Speaker 1: should be fighting all the way to stop? 239 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 2: Well, you you at the end highlighted the major issue 240 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:03,080 Speaker 2: which is not really discussed in public, even in the elite, 241 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:11,880 Speaker 2: which is the question that Britain asked itself in nineteen 242 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:15,359 Speaker 2: thirty nine, are we willing to go to war with 243 00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:21,440 Speaker 2: Germany over Poland? And the question not asked around Washington 244 00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:25,879 Speaker 2: in all of the palaver is are we willing to 245 00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:31,400 Speaker 2: go to war with China over Taiwan? Yes? Or no? 246 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 2: And an American president should know that he doesn't have 247 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:41,480 Speaker 2: to announce it, although Joe Biden did for sure. 248 00:18:41,359 --> 00:18:44,880 Speaker 1: Did was that a work? That was the first time 249 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:47,320 Speaker 1: an American president ever done that right? 250 00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,960 Speaker 2: And at each time, as we know, the State Department 251 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:55,760 Speaker 2: walked it back the next morning. But I think we 252 00:18:55,840 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 2: do have some evidence that Biden would go to with 253 00:19:01,280 --> 00:19:06,000 Speaker 2: China over Taiwan. I think you're right that there is 254 00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:10,720 Speaker 2: no such evidence with respect to President Trump, and he 255 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:15,880 Speaker 2: has said things like Taiwan has a little dot on 256 00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:20,920 Speaker 2: the coast of China which stole all of our chip 257 00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:26,640 Speaker 2: technology and so forth. So would he go to war 258 00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:31,200 Speaker 2: with China over Taiwan? I think that at least there's 259 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:39,679 Speaker 2: a doubt in his case, and President Shi Jinping may 260 00:19:39,800 --> 00:19:43,360 Speaker 2: want to test the hypothesis, maybe. 261 00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:44,840 Speaker 1: Not with a I mean if I were sitting in 262 00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:47,000 Speaker 1: his shoes. And again, I don't want this to happen. 263 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:50,680 Speaker 1: I wouldn't wait for another American president to do this, 264 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:52,879 Speaker 1: I'd do it under this one. 265 00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 2: But it's still nobody knows what an American president is 266 00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 2: going to do before he does. And this is particularly 267 00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 2: i might say erratic American president. He can't, even with 268 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 2: the perhaps footprints in the sand, heading toward a quiet 269 00:20:14,720 --> 00:20:19,880 Speaker 2: reaction to such Chinese aggression. He can't be sure. And 270 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:25,800 Speaker 2: using his military force is a great gamble. It hasn't 271 00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:29,760 Speaker 2: been in combat since the late nineteen seventies, it's corrupt 272 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:34,520 Speaker 2: and all the rest. So what if he tries and fails? 273 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:40,480 Speaker 2: So making that decision to say okay, there's not going 274 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:45,879 Speaker 2: to be a better moment than now go. I wouldn't 275 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 2: want to predict what he'll say, but it's certainly true 276 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 2: de terrence is weaker under President Trump. There's no doubt 277 00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:54,679 Speaker 2: about that. 278 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:56,960 Speaker 1: Any If you were in Taiwan, would you be more 279 00:20:57,000 --> 00:21:00,159 Speaker 1: concerned now under the current situation than you've ever been? 280 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:03,240 Speaker 2: Yes? Yeah, absolutely. 281 00:21:06,600 --> 00:21:11,720 Speaker 1: I've always thought the biggest problem American political leaders have 282 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:15,480 Speaker 1: on the Taiwan issue is, particularly with the memory of 283 00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:20,919 Speaker 1: Iraq and Afghanistan still still recent enough for enough people 284 00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:24,520 Speaker 1: that you'd have a hard time convincing the country that 285 00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 1: it's worth going to war over over Taiwan. I mean, 286 00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:35,440 Speaker 1: you see, we're look, Americans are always instinctively isolationists, and 287 00:21:35,440 --> 00:21:37,360 Speaker 1: and then you know, we can be talked into it. 288 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:43,679 Speaker 1: But I think that's a tall political order, Bob, it is. 289 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:51,560 Speaker 2: I agreedy. But if the president is suddenly informed that 290 00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:59,520 Speaker 2: China has started military action against Taiwan, then what does 291 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:03,480 Speaker 2: he do. Well, he can try to avoid responsibility, as 292 00:22:03,560 --> 00:22:05,919 Speaker 2: presidents have done and said, well, the Congress has to 293 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:11,480 Speaker 2: decide this, not me, but there'll be pressure. There'll be 294 00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:15,679 Speaker 2: pressure on him to make a decision, and the longer 295 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:21,720 Speaker 2: he waits, the more likely we won't intervene. So he 296 00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:25,320 Speaker 2: has that time to try to persuade the American people. 297 00:22:25,840 --> 00:22:30,639 Speaker 2: I believe, though, with you, that if it were to 298 00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 2: happen and he were to ask the American people, should 299 00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:39,639 Speaker 2: I go to war with China, a majority is likely 300 00:22:39,880 --> 00:22:47,639 Speaker 2: to say no, it's too far away, it's not important enough. 301 00:22:48,600 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 2: We seem to have a recent inclination to lose wars. No. 302 00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:58,879 Speaker 2: But that's where American leadership comes in and explains to 303 00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:04,320 Speaker 2: the American people, here's why we're going to war. Uh. 304 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:07,440 Speaker 2: But it's a it will be a tough sell. Just again, 305 00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:11,719 Speaker 2: to use a historical analogy, we will never know whether 306 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:18,359 Speaker 2: Fdr WU and the American Congress would have declared war 307 00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:23,520 Speaker 2: on Germany. On Germany once Pearl Harbor had occurred, if 308 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:28,440 Speaker 2: Hitler hadn't declared war on US first, because the the 309 00:23:28,960 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 2: the body of of of opinion was, let's concentrate on Japan. 310 00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:39,400 Speaker 2: They're the ones who attacked US. Germany hasn't attacked US. 311 00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:44,440 Speaker 2: And that decision by Hitler to declare war four days 312 00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:49,639 Speaker 2: later after Pearl Harbor, that's what marri lea Guardia called 313 00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:53,919 Speaker 2: a doozy. Uh. 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So go to 365 00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:36,640 Speaker 1: get sold dot Com use the promo code toodcast. Don't 366 00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:40,960 Speaker 1: forget that code. That's getsold dot Com promo code toodcast 367 00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:42,600 Speaker 1: for thirty percent off. 368 00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:46,600 Speaker 2: Yeah. 369 00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:51,600 Speaker 1: Well, and obviously a giant misstep by the Germans in 370 00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:56,760 Speaker 1: that time. So let's talk about let's assume we get 371 00:26:56,800 --> 00:27:02,720 Speaker 1: through this term without without being fake, without anybody being 372 00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:06,879 Speaker 1: faced with the Taiwan decision. What are you advising the 373 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:09,439 Speaker 1: next president to do in twenty twenty nine or what 374 00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:12,160 Speaker 1: do you hope the next president is thinking about come 375 00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:13,000 Speaker 1: twenty twenty nine. 376 00:27:14,160 --> 00:27:21,879 Speaker 2: Well, I myself am an optimist in several respects with 377 00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:28,760 Speaker 2: respect to your question. First of all, I think President 378 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:35,960 Speaker 2: Trump is a unique singular figure in American history, and 379 00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:41,359 Speaker 2: that he will take much of trump Ism with him 380 00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:47,440 Speaker 2: as he goes out the door, in particular, in particular 381 00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:56,480 Speaker 2: the erratic behavior that he prefers, the contempt for America's alliances, 382 00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:01,400 Speaker 2: the statement that American values have no place in American 383 00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:05,400 Speaker 2: foreign policy, and so forth. Those are so un American 384 00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 2: those views that I think he takes them out the 385 00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:08,720 Speaker 2: door with it. 386 00:28:09,160 --> 00:28:12,080 Speaker 1: You're that confident a president JD. Vance would throw all 387 00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:12,480 Speaker 1: that away? 388 00:28:13,119 --> 00:28:16,840 Speaker 2: Yes, well, I'm speculating. But let me say what I 389 00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:22,359 Speaker 2: think he won't throw away, which is American nationalism, which 390 00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:30,000 Speaker 2: has dominated American grand strategy since the founding. 391 00:28:31,160 --> 00:28:33,000 Speaker 1: I'm glad you point this out. I try to tell 392 00:28:33,000 --> 00:28:35,879 Speaker 1: people the Cold War was an outlier in American history 393 00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:43,880 Speaker 1: in a variety of ways, political parties, political extremism, isolationism, 394 00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:49,520 Speaker 1: and nationalism versus multilateralism. I mean, and unfortunately or fortunately, 395 00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:51,880 Speaker 1: we get to live in that era and we saw, hey, 396 00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:56,200 Speaker 1: that's pretty good. Erica really benefited from this era of multilateralism, 397 00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:58,560 Speaker 1: which makes it a head scratcher. Why would want to 398 00:28:58,600 --> 00:28:58,959 Speaker 1: give it up? 399 00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:07,959 Speaker 2: Became weaker? As I tried to say earlier. And I 400 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:12,040 Speaker 2: can't be sure obviously who the Republican nominee would be 401 00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:15,040 Speaker 2: and what you would say, But I think the challenge 402 00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:22,040 Speaker 2: the debate after Trump will be between American nationalism, which, 403 00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:23,840 Speaker 2: as I say, for more than one hundred and fifty 404 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:29,120 Speaker 2: years was American grand strategy, and I hope a much 405 00:29:29,120 --> 00:29:36,840 Speaker 2: stronger liberal internationalism with a much greater capacity in the military, 406 00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:42,840 Speaker 2: most more defense of international institutions and so forth. And 407 00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:45,400 Speaker 2: I think that'll be the debate. It'll be the Western 408 00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:52,080 Speaker 2: hemisphere versus the globe. And I don't the American people, instinctively, 409 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:55,840 Speaker 2: as you say, Chuck, all the way back to the beginning, 410 00:29:56,520 --> 00:30:01,600 Speaker 2: are anxious about alliances, about intent angling alliances, to use 411 00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:08,120 Speaker 2: the founder's words, and so if it is, if it 412 00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:14,640 Speaker 2: is vice president advanced, then he will call campaign as 413 00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:17,720 Speaker 2: a Trumpist. But I don't think he will be a Trumpist. 414 00:30:17,840 --> 00:30:21,280 Speaker 2: I think most likely he'll be an American nationalist. And 415 00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:25,640 Speaker 2: then that is raising the question, well, who is the 416 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:32,120 Speaker 2: Democrat candidate and what is the Democrat approach to world 417 00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:38,880 Speaker 2: order and US grand strategy today or more pertinently during 418 00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:42,760 Speaker 2: the campaign. And I don't have a clue. Perhaps you do, 419 00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:46,280 Speaker 2: but I know I couldn't. I could sit Yeah, I 420 00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:47,200 Speaker 2: mean you might do. 421 00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:50,120 Speaker 1: I think that your peak bootage is your Joshapiers or 422 00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:54,080 Speaker 1: Wes Moores would be would look very familiar to you 423 00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:57,440 Speaker 1: as far as PID policy over the last thirty or 424 00:30:57,440 --> 00:31:00,440 Speaker 1: forty years, I think so. But who's to say they're 425 00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:03,280 Speaker 1: going to be You know, I think this, You know 426 00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,000 Speaker 1: you don't know for sure, let me look at it 427 00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:12,280 Speaker 1: through Europe's perspective here, you know, Europe is you know, 428 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,520 Speaker 1: I've often joked that Trump's going to make Europe great 429 00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:18,600 Speaker 1: again because They've got to sort of like, well, can't 430 00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:21,600 Speaker 1: rely on America anymore. So let's start making our own 431 00:31:21,600 --> 00:31:26,360 Speaker 1: economic deals, and let's start thinking about our own defense 432 00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:29,000 Speaker 1: packs and things like that. It's going to take a 433 00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:33,320 Speaker 1: while for our European allies to trust us again. So 434 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,959 Speaker 1: how do you build really, if we're going to if 435 00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:38,680 Speaker 1: you get a president that wants to rebuild these alliances, 436 00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:41,160 Speaker 1: how do you do it in such a way where 437 00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:44,240 Speaker 1: it becomes more durable and essentially trump proofit for the 438 00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:44,720 Speaker 1: next time. 439 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:50,960 Speaker 2: Well, that is related to what I said earlier At Davo's. 440 00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:56,280 Speaker 2: Friend of mine asked a foreign minister, well, what about 441 00:31:56,320 --> 00:32:00,480 Speaker 2: after Trump? And he said, well, if the next resident 442 00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:03,800 Speaker 2: looks more like ones we've seen before, okay, but then 443 00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:06,880 Speaker 2: we can get another Trump. And my argument, which my 444 00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:08,960 Speaker 2: friend didn't use, but my argument is no, you're not 445 00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:11,880 Speaker 2: going to get another Trump. He is such a singular 446 00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:15,760 Speaker 2: figure in American history that, as I said, I think 447 00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:20,200 Speaker 2: many of his policies will go with him, but it 448 00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:21,800 Speaker 2: will let me pause. 449 00:32:21,840 --> 00:32:26,160 Speaker 1: You there, I mostly agree with you, but we have 450 00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:28,640 Speaker 1: I have a friend of mine he always says, you know, 451 00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:33,560 Speaker 1: with Trump, we sometimes forget the phrase failure of imagination. 452 00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,200 Speaker 1: And you know, there have been multiple times we thought 453 00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:39,920 Speaker 1: this would do in Trump, We're not going to return 454 00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:43,880 Speaker 1: to Trump, and yet we've done it. So I would 455 00:32:44,080 --> 00:32:47,200 Speaker 1: you know, I've wondered if the second election of Trump 456 00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:54,480 Speaker 1: really sort of cemented skepticism about America at least for 457 00:32:54,520 --> 00:32:55,160 Speaker 1: another decade. 458 00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:59,720 Speaker 2: I think you're the expert on domestic politics. It's not 459 00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:02,840 Speaker 2: my line of work. But I think it mostly shows 460 00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:07,560 Speaker 2: the weakness of the Democrat candidate, or at least. 461 00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:09,960 Speaker 1: That I don't disagree. I mean the last part of it. 462 00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:13,120 Speaker 2: But but back back to the fundamental point, which is 463 00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:22,080 Speaker 2: the Trump approach, which is, as I say, I think, 464 00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:25,120 Speaker 2: at at the base an American because it has no 465 00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:31,320 Speaker 2: values in it, and every president back to Washington had 466 00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:37,240 Speaker 2: values in in their approach to international affairs. I don't 467 00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:41,160 Speaker 2: think jd. Vance will say the same thing, for example, 468 00:33:41,760 --> 00:33:48,680 Speaker 2: that President Trump says and mister Miller says about that 469 00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:54,360 Speaker 2: power and strength is everything in the world. I would 470 00:33:54,360 --> 00:33:59,440 Speaker 2: be very surprised when I was in the Serengetti. Recently, 471 00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:05,680 Speaker 2: I had a guide say in the Serengetti every night 472 00:34:06,440 --> 00:34:11,480 Speaker 2: animals eat and animals are eaten. Well, I think that's 473 00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:16,760 Speaker 2: mister Miller's view of current civilization, and it's not shared 474 00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:20,520 Speaker 2: by the American people. And I think if mister Vance 475 00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:29,799 Speaker 2: were to campaign on that gangsterism, which incidentally has some 476 00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:34,920 Speaker 2: loyalties at least, that would be a mistake. So anyway, 477 00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:39,800 Speaker 2: whoever's the next president will have the opportunity to build 478 00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:45,200 Speaker 2: that trust. If it's mister Vance and he keeps denigrating 479 00:34:45,239 --> 00:34:52,560 Speaker 2: our democratically elected allies, then trust will not be re established. 480 00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:56,960 Speaker 2: And in life, we know it can be re established 481 00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:02,160 Speaker 2: unless the perforation of the trust ust goes on. And 482 00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:07,120 Speaker 2: so if the next president says, I know trust in 483 00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:12,080 Speaker 2: America has weakened to the Europeans, but just watch me, 484 00:35:12,280 --> 00:35:15,799 Speaker 2: and you're going to see a consistency of our policies. 485 00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:20,240 Speaker 2: And I hope we'll build trust over time. It won't 486 00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:25,120 Speaker 2: happen automatically. But the question which you imply, Chuck, is 487 00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:27,360 Speaker 2: and I don't know the answer, is, well, what about 488 00:35:27,640 --> 00:35:33,399 Speaker 2: if the next president treats the European allies the way 489 00:35:33,480 --> 00:35:37,760 Speaker 2: this one has? Well when is it that they finally 490 00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:41,960 Speaker 2: give up on America and they're not going to do 491 00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:49,600 Speaker 2: it to amplify their risk. But a Europe, and this 492 00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:54,560 Speaker 2: is something that the administration seems not to accept. A 493 00:35:54,680 --> 00:35:59,440 Speaker 2: Europe which really is separated from the United States, is 494 00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:02,480 Speaker 2: a euro which will go on its own, not just 495 00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:07,279 Speaker 2: in dealing with European security issues, but with trade with 496 00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:10,960 Speaker 2: China or treating Israel in the Middle East or whatever. 497 00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:15,560 Speaker 2: It will have no incentives to care much about what 498 00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:21,200 Speaker 2: the United States thinks or advises if we separate from 499 00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:24,960 Speaker 2: them in the way that the President and the Vice 500 00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:30,680 Speaker 2: President seem to want. This curiosity in which the President 501 00:36:31,040 --> 00:36:37,120 Speaker 2: can say nothing positive about Europe while he emphasizes his 502 00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:43,440 Speaker 2: close friendships with Shijinping, who's trying to displace the United 503 00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:48,040 Speaker 2: States as the principal power in Asia and beyond, and 504 00:36:48,120 --> 00:36:52,200 Speaker 2: Vladimir Putin, who is seeking to murder as many innocent 505 00:36:53,480 --> 00:37:01,200 Speaker 2: Ukrainians as he can, are close friends. It is unfathomable. 506 00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:03,840 Speaker 2: For it is me at least. 507 00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:09,400 Speaker 1: One of the my reading of history is nationalism is 508 00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:16,120 Speaker 1: usually comes before wars, and that nationalism is also contagious, 509 00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:20,280 Speaker 1: and when we get more nationalistic, so does the world. 510 00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:25,800 Speaker 1: When we get more protectionists, so do other countries become protectionists. 511 00:37:25,920 --> 00:37:29,800 Speaker 1: And this is something that I think you write soberly, 512 00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:32,399 Speaker 1: but to me this I read it with a bit 513 00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:37,759 Speaker 1: of alarm. I think we've never it feels like we 514 00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:41,040 Speaker 1: are at there are a lot of we are at 515 00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:43,920 Speaker 1: a moment where there's quite a few places where a 516 00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:47,560 Speaker 1: spark could cause something that we can't control. 517 00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:54,200 Speaker 2: Well, in some places it's gotten better, but in some 518 00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:57,719 Speaker 2: places it's gotten worse. I do want to point out, 519 00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:01,360 Speaker 2: and it's not because of American olyes. It's because of 520 00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:07,160 Speaker 2: the IDF and Israel. But that spark is much less 521 00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:11,680 Speaker 2: likely in the Middle East now than it was before 522 00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:16,440 Speaker 2: the Hamas attack on Israel. 523 00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,200 Speaker 1: That is true. The stability in the Middle East there 524 00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:22,239 Speaker 1: may be political. It may have caused more political instability 525 00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:27,000 Speaker 1: in the Democratic Party here, but there is security stability 526 00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:29,239 Speaker 1: in the Middle East in a way that we've not 527 00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:30,239 Speaker 1: seen in a long time. 528 00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:34,200 Speaker 2: Right. But in Europe the danger is and it's an 529 00:38:34,239 --> 00:38:38,400 Speaker 2: analog to what uh you raised with respect to Taiwan, 530 00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:44,720 Speaker 2: who believes that Donald Trump will abide by Article five, 531 00:38:45,160 --> 00:38:48,040 Speaker 2: that is to say, an attack on one as an 532 00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:53,600 Speaker 2: attack on all. Essentially, if Little Green men go into 533 00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:54,520 Speaker 2: a Baltic state. 534 00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:59,359 Speaker 1: Oh, we've heard Tucker Carlson say this about Estonia. Our 535 00:38:59,360 --> 00:39:03,120 Speaker 1: America is American America gonna spill blood for Estonian. 536 00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:09,280 Speaker 2: Right and so uh can Putin, especially if he can't 537 00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:15,279 Speaker 2: conquer Ukraine? Uh? Uh will he test the proposition too? 538 00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:21,000 Speaker 2: About Trump? Souh a spark there could lead to the 539 00:39:21,040 --> 00:39:25,600 Speaker 2: collapse of NATO, for example, Uh if the United States 540 00:39:25,880 --> 00:39:30,760 Speaker 2: were not willing to uh to uh abide by Article 541 00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:39,000 Speaker 2: five or even worse, somehow endorsed the uh little green 542 00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:44,160 Speaker 2: men from Russia the paramilitaries into the Baltic States. And 543 00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:52,520 Speaker 2: President Trump, after his interactions with President Putin, often seems 544 00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:57,200 Speaker 2: to accept President Putin's explanation of what is happening in 545 00:39:57,239 --> 00:40:01,399 Speaker 2: the world. So there there's a point. But the most 546 00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:05,239 Speaker 2: dangerous I'll just say this to make it clear. The 547 00:40:05,280 --> 00:40:10,800 Speaker 2: most dangerous place on earth, as that spark you mentioned 548 00:40:12,040 --> 00:40:18,439 Speaker 2: for the rest of the Trump term, is Taiwan. That's 549 00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:24,840 Speaker 2: because of the reasons we said, I think is the 550 00:40:24,880 --> 00:40:29,520 Speaker 2: most dangerous, and that spark quote could happen anytime. 551 00:40:32,320 --> 00:40:34,480 Speaker 1: This episode of The Chuck Podcast is brought to you 552 00:40:34,480 --> 00:40:37,279 Speaker 1: by American Financing. Let's be honest. The math just isn't 553 00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:40,160 Speaker 1: adding up lately. Between the grocery store and those skyrocketing 554 00:40:40,200 --> 00:40:42,960 Speaker 1: insurance premiums, even with a steady job, more families are 555 00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,680 Speaker 1: being forced to rely on high interest credit cards to 556 00:40:45,760 --> 00:40:49,000 Speaker 1: cover expenses. 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If the US helps create a 608 00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:54,360 Speaker 1: peace steal between Russia and Ukraine that essentially rewards Russia, 609 00:43:55,239 --> 00:43:56,279 Speaker 1: what's the fallout from that? 610 00:43:57,640 --> 00:44:04,680 Speaker 2: Well, the peace steal, the one I would support, will 611 00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:10,880 Speaker 2: reward Russia because there is no stomach in the West 612 00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:15,239 Speaker 2: and no capability in Ukraine to drive Russia out of 613 00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:19,479 Speaker 2: the Donboss and out of Crimea, so they are going 614 00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:23,600 Speaker 2: to profit at the expense of more than a million 615 00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:27,480 Speaker 2: deaths and so forth from their invasion. The question is 616 00:44:28,640 --> 00:44:32,680 Speaker 2: rather is rather, can we stop them where they are 617 00:44:33,640 --> 00:44:38,719 Speaker 2: and retain Ukrainian sovereignty And some of the things that 618 00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:45,840 Speaker 2: mister Wikoff has proposed in the past would jeopardize or 619 00:44:45,920 --> 00:44:54,320 Speaker 2: even end Ukrainian sovereignty. So that's the question. And I think, 620 00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:57,279 Speaker 2: sadly the war is likely to go on because I 621 00:44:57,320 --> 00:45:04,040 Speaker 2: think that there is a a determination in Ukraine not 622 00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:08,240 Speaker 2: to lose their statehood, and that's what Putin, of course 623 00:45:08,480 --> 00:45:12,880 Speaker 2: wants to accomplish. And I just hope the Americans, the 624 00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:18,839 Speaker 2: American administration are not going to assist President Putin In 625 00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:25,520 Speaker 2: that by putting pressure on Ukraine to give up its sovereignty. 626 00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:30,120 Speaker 1: Look, I sort of positive this idea that I think 627 00:45:30,160 --> 00:45:34,200 Speaker 1: she knows that if he wants to that it might 628 00:45:34,360 --> 00:45:38,399 Speaker 1: benefit him to test the premise while Trump's still here, 629 00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:44,360 Speaker 1: then waiting until after Trump leaves. I assume that times 630 00:45:44,400 --> 00:45:49,080 Speaker 1: ten with Putin, that Putin knows he's got he'll never 631 00:45:49,239 --> 00:45:53,880 Speaker 1: have a friendlier American president than the one he has now, 632 00:45:54,760 --> 00:45:57,640 Speaker 1: So what does that mean when it comes to his 633 00:45:57,920 --> 00:45:59,600 Speaker 1: actions in the next two and a half years. 634 00:46:00,200 --> 00:46:03,600 Speaker 2: Well, what can he do? Uh, that's exactly the right question. 635 00:46:04,400 --> 00:46:14,879 Speaker 2: His progress on the battlefield is painfully slow, uh and 636 00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:21,759 Speaker 2: doesn't seem to uh to accelerate now. So I think 637 00:46:21,840 --> 00:46:28,120 Speaker 2: there's no breakout for Putin in the military campaign. So 638 00:46:28,239 --> 00:46:35,520 Speaker 2: the strategy would be to persuade President Trump UH to 639 00:46:35,600 --> 00:46:41,440 Speaker 2: put so much pressure on Ukraine that it will abandon 640 00:46:41,719 --> 00:46:47,600 Speaker 2: its determination to retain its sovereignty and succumb. Well, how 641 00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:52,840 Speaker 2: could President Trump do that? He could say, Uh, we 642 00:46:52,880 --> 00:46:59,440 Speaker 2: will no longer support you with intelligence information, which which 643 00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:05,160 Speaker 2: would be a catastrophic It's. 644 00:47:05,040 --> 00:47:08,040 Speaker 1: The single most valuable thing we still do for them 645 00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:13,040 Speaker 1: wedily give them military, but it's now indirect the way 646 00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:13,959 Speaker 1: it was more. 647 00:47:13,880 --> 00:47:17,440 Speaker 2: Direct, exactly, and it helps them with their targeting, with 648 00:47:17,520 --> 00:47:20,920 Speaker 2: moving their force of all the rest. Well, he can 649 00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:27,240 Speaker 2: as a presidential act actor with unlimited power in that regard, 650 00:47:27,520 --> 00:47:30,640 Speaker 2: he can end it tomorrow. And he could say, if 651 00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:34,120 Speaker 2: you do not accept X y Z, I'm going to 652 00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:39,520 Speaker 2: end it. Second, I'm going to stop selling weapons to 653 00:47:41,000 --> 00:47:44,960 Speaker 2: Europe which they then pass on to you, and Europe 654 00:47:45,000 --> 00:47:49,600 Speaker 2: cannot keep you sufficiently supplied with specially artillery shells, but 655 00:47:49,800 --> 00:47:53,760 Speaker 2: other things as well, and so forth. So Putin could 656 00:47:53,840 --> 00:48:00,200 Speaker 2: hope that with that ultimatum from the United States and 657 00:48:00,280 --> 00:48:06,879 Speaker 2: from President Trump, perhaps the view in the Ukrainian leadership 658 00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:14,000 Speaker 2: would succumb to this American pressure. And I think Putin 659 00:48:14,040 --> 00:48:17,399 Speaker 2: will keep working on that and be patient we talk. 660 00:48:17,680 --> 00:48:20,080 Speaker 2: And this is I'm guilty of this more than you. 661 00:48:20,200 --> 00:48:28,120 Speaker 2: But when I when I'm hopeful, chuck about what America's 662 00:48:28,719 --> 00:48:32,000 Speaker 2: future might be with respect to its its foreign policies. 663 00:48:32,040 --> 00:48:37,040 Speaker 2: When I'm hopeful, I have to say that I have 664 00:48:37,160 --> 00:48:43,480 Speaker 2: to compartmentalize that hope and ignore that the president is 665 00:48:43,560 --> 00:48:45,160 Speaker 2: in office for. 666 00:48:45,040 --> 00:48:47,040 Speaker 1: Three more years. 667 00:48:47,480 --> 00:48:55,399 Speaker 2: So what will he do to further rupture to use 668 00:48:55,440 --> 00:49:02,600 Speaker 2: the Canadian Prime Minister's words, to rupture alliances for now? 669 00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:07,840 Speaker 2: For now? And Greenland is a good a good example. 670 00:49:08,800 --> 00:49:15,359 Speaker 2: Europe is traumatized by what President Trump says, not what 671 00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:22,880 Speaker 2: he does. So so Davos was was a flitter, not 672 00:49:23,120 --> 00:49:28,480 Speaker 2: because President Trump did anything about Greenland. It was he 673 00:49:28,520 --> 00:49:32,320 Speaker 2: said he would consider the use of force. What we need, 674 00:49:33,360 --> 00:49:37,560 Speaker 2: I think to be acutely aware of as in the 675 00:49:37,560 --> 00:49:41,880 Speaker 2: next three years is what does he start not just 676 00:49:42,040 --> 00:49:46,040 Speaker 2: saying but doing. For example, does he make the decision 677 00:49:46,239 --> 00:49:53,320 Speaker 2: to withdraw US forces from South Korea or substantial numbers 678 00:49:53,320 --> 00:50:01,960 Speaker 2: from Japan, from the from Europe? Does he succumb to 679 00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:10,560 Speaker 2: the one China interpretation of the Chinese interpretation of one China, 680 00:50:10,600 --> 00:50:13,120 Speaker 2: which says Taiwan is part of China, and so forth. 681 00:50:14,480 --> 00:50:17,560 Speaker 2: So I think we need to adopt what you and 682 00:50:17,600 --> 00:50:22,480 Speaker 2: I will remember, and others ed Niss's line about watch 683 00:50:22,560 --> 00:50:27,160 Speaker 2: what we do, not what we say. It's especially true 684 00:50:28,480 --> 00:50:33,680 Speaker 2: that to become traumatized every night at two am when 685 00:50:33,719 --> 00:50:39,520 Speaker 2: he tweets out is not a productive way to spend 686 00:50:39,560 --> 00:50:40,880 Speaker 2: your time at two am. 687 00:50:42,200 --> 00:50:46,920 Speaker 1: I still have some you know, what do you make 688 00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:51,160 Speaker 1: of Marco Rubio's role here? I view him as a 689 00:50:51,200 --> 00:50:54,560 Speaker 1: little bit of a firewall in that administration. He certainly 690 00:50:54,560 --> 00:50:57,759 Speaker 1: has the ear of the president. He has his own 691 00:50:57,800 --> 00:51:00,839 Speaker 1: agenda that he is trying to you know, as I joke, 692 00:51:00,920 --> 00:51:03,200 Speaker 1: he's going to there'll be more streets named after him 693 00:51:03,440 --> 00:51:07,360 Speaker 1: in my hometown of Miami than anybody else in the 694 00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:09,480 Speaker 1: next twenty years if he gets what he wants in 695 00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:14,319 Speaker 1: both Cuban Venezuela. But he is a I think he's 696 00:51:14,320 --> 00:51:18,440 Speaker 1: an internationalist. I think he believes in multilateralism. He certainly 697 00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:22,480 Speaker 1: has changed his rhetoric to appease Trump. But would you 698 00:51:22,560 --> 00:51:24,399 Speaker 1: be a lot more concerned if he wasn't there? 699 00:51:25,200 --> 00:51:32,400 Speaker 2: Yes, and yes, And although if I were more important, 700 00:51:32,440 --> 00:51:36,080 Speaker 2: what I'm about to say would damage his standing. 701 00:51:36,280 --> 00:51:39,759 Speaker 1: But I admire everybody's afraid of saying that. Don't praise 702 00:51:39,800 --> 00:51:40,520 Speaker 1: him too much. 703 00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:43,600 Speaker 2: Right, But I admire what he's trying to do. And 704 00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:49,120 Speaker 2: I think he's essentially a classic as I am, a 705 00:51:49,239 --> 00:51:54,560 Speaker 2: classic Republican in the view, in how he views the world, 706 00:51:54,640 --> 00:51:56,279 Speaker 2: the strength of alliance. 707 00:51:56,400 --> 00:51:59,400 Speaker 1: Of the Republican of the as I say, from Eisenhower 708 00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:02,240 Speaker 1: to Romney, there was sort of a Republican foreign policy 709 00:52:02,320 --> 00:52:05,400 Speaker 1: consensus generally, right, Well, I think. 710 00:52:05,280 --> 00:52:07,960 Speaker 2: It went beyond that, but any but in any case, 711 00:52:08,920 --> 00:52:13,080 Speaker 2: I think he has it. In just one topical example. 712 00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:19,640 Speaker 2: I think that he and perhaps Secretary hexas Uh put 713 00:52:19,640 --> 00:52:25,319 Speaker 2: the language in the National Security Strategy, tough language on 714 00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:28,879 Speaker 2: the balance of power in the First Island chain and 715 00:52:30,320 --> 00:52:34,680 Speaker 2: the threats to that. But and so I'm delighted they 716 00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:39,000 Speaker 2: put it in. But because of the President, they couldn't 717 00:52:39,000 --> 00:52:45,279 Speaker 2: mention the country that raises these anxieties, that is to say, China. 718 00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:51,359 Speaker 2: So it's as if, well, let's see who might that be? Yeah, yeah, right. 719 00:52:52,040 --> 00:52:58,200 Speaker 2: So I admire what Secretary Rubio is trying to do, 720 00:52:58,640 --> 00:53:02,239 Speaker 2: and it's the most look at balancing act to go 721 00:53:03,120 --> 00:53:07,600 Speaker 2: just far enough but not too far. I don't believe 722 00:53:07,800 --> 00:53:14,760 Speaker 2: he himself, for example, ever said we must take sovereign 723 00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:19,960 Speaker 2: possession of Greenland. I think he tries to make his point, 724 00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:26,160 Speaker 2: perhaps often through silence, and so good good for him 725 00:53:26,280 --> 00:53:31,480 Speaker 2: for trying and retaining. If he has an year of 726 00:53:31,520 --> 00:53:32,600 Speaker 2: the president. 727 00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:36,640 Speaker 1: Yeah he is. At some point, I expect the President 728 00:53:36,680 --> 00:53:39,319 Speaker 1: to turn on him, but so far he is. That 729 00:53:39,400 --> 00:53:42,839 Speaker 1: hasn't happened. Get your opinion on something. Jake Sullivan, when 730 00:53:42,840 --> 00:53:46,719 Speaker 1: he was Biden's National security advisor, gave a speech it 731 00:53:46,760 --> 00:53:49,719 Speaker 1: may have been in front of CFR counts on formulations 732 00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:53,120 Speaker 1: where he viewed He said, look, we're in a competition 733 00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:55,839 Speaker 1: with China, and there's some He said, if you if 734 00:53:55,880 --> 00:53:58,000 Speaker 1: you want to look at it and use American language, 735 00:53:58,440 --> 00:54:01,080 Speaker 1: you know of swing states. But he viewed him as 736 00:54:01,080 --> 00:54:04,160 Speaker 1: swing nations, and it was sort of at the time 737 00:54:04,719 --> 00:54:07,719 Speaker 1: he was basically trying to convince Biden that he had 738 00:54:07,719 --> 00:54:10,000 Speaker 1: to work with Saudi Arabia. We know you don't. You're 739 00:54:10,040 --> 00:54:14,480 Speaker 1: personally angry, and Biden was not wanting to. You know, 740 00:54:14,520 --> 00:54:18,400 Speaker 1: you'd made this pledge about Saudi Arabia and then you know, 741 00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:21,200 Speaker 1: you make all the pledges in the world and campaign 742 00:54:21,400 --> 00:54:24,520 Speaker 1: and all that, right, and the reality hits. But he 743 00:54:24,640 --> 00:54:30,360 Speaker 1: identified four countries and it was Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, India, 744 00:54:30,560 --> 00:54:35,839 Speaker 1: and I think it was Brazil as sort of these 745 00:54:35,840 --> 00:54:40,080 Speaker 1: swing countries that we had to, you know, these that 746 00:54:40,480 --> 00:54:45,280 Speaker 1: it was necessary to have close alliances with to prevent 747 00:54:45,360 --> 00:54:50,280 Speaker 1: them from going into China's arms. Do you generally agree 748 00:54:50,320 --> 00:54:53,520 Speaker 1: with that take and do you still see that as 749 00:54:53,520 --> 00:54:56,200 Speaker 1: an issue? And I do feel like we've had in 750 00:54:56,239 --> 00:55:01,839 Speaker 1: the twenty first century consecutive one consistency is you've had 751 00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:05,080 Speaker 1: all the presidents trying to make nice with India. 752 00:55:06,080 --> 00:55:11,879 Speaker 2: Yeah. Yes, I do agree with that. And in that context, 753 00:55:13,040 --> 00:55:18,440 Speaker 2: I think we are headed for not a multipolar world 754 00:55:19,520 --> 00:55:25,360 Speaker 2: in which the superpowers are first among equals and so forth, 755 00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:27,880 Speaker 2: although there's a lot of talk about the Middle powers 756 00:55:27,920 --> 00:55:30,520 Speaker 2: now and so forth. I think we're headed for a 757 00:55:30,600 --> 00:55:34,359 Speaker 2: bipolar world that will be very familiar to us, and 758 00:55:34,440 --> 00:55:35,360 Speaker 2: it will be the. 759 00:55:35,200 --> 00:55:35,919 Speaker 1: Old War too. 760 00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:39,640 Speaker 2: Basically. Huh yeah, Well, in that sense, there will be 761 00:55:39,640 --> 00:55:42,160 Speaker 2: many differences, but in that sense, and it will be 762 00:55:42,640 --> 00:55:47,160 Speaker 2: the United States and China trying to attract these major 763 00:55:47,480 --> 00:55:53,000 Speaker 2: other countries in the in the international system, beginning with 764 00:55:54,320 --> 00:55:59,240 Speaker 2: and including the four you mentioned, and that it will 765 00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:06,239 Speaker 2: take ignoring in some cases they are human rights, domestic practices, 766 00:56:06,239 --> 00:56:12,680 Speaker 2: and others. India comes to mind a determined avoidance of 767 00:56:12,760 --> 00:56:16,080 Speaker 2: anything that smells like an alliance while they get closer 768 00:56:16,120 --> 00:56:21,240 Speaker 2: to the United States, which has been happening and so forth. 769 00:56:21,680 --> 00:56:28,840 Speaker 2: And what they want, I think out of the United 770 00:56:28,880 --> 00:56:35,360 Speaker 2: States is a consistency based on American strength, based on 771 00:56:35,400 --> 00:56:40,319 Speaker 2: American strength, not a consistency based on ideology from their 772 00:56:40,360 --> 00:56:44,760 Speaker 2: point of view, and I tried to make an argument. 773 00:56:45,280 --> 00:56:51,320 Speaker 2: It's argued at length in the report that American strength 774 00:56:52,239 --> 00:56:56,280 Speaker 2: has not been impressive the application of American strength you mentioned, 775 00:56:56,320 --> 00:57:03,399 Speaker 2: and I neglected to follow up the the Obama administration's 776 00:57:03,440 --> 00:57:10,359 Speaker 2: decision to abandon the Transpecific Partnership was catastrophic. It was 777 00:57:10,400 --> 00:57:14,000 Speaker 2: the chance to have a framework for international trade in 778 00:57:14,040 --> 00:57:19,480 Speaker 2: Asia led by the United States, and now we have 779 00:57:19,600 --> 00:57:26,360 Speaker 2: no multilateral framework. Meanwhile, Asia itself is organizing and has 780 00:57:26,520 --> 00:57:32,800 Speaker 2: organized itself with such a framework, and we have the irony. 781 00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:34,840 Speaker 1: Now is in charge of it is. 782 00:57:35,360 --> 00:57:40,520 Speaker 2: China has applied to be a member. What is the 783 00:57:40,640 --> 00:57:46,880 Speaker 2: essence of the Transit Pacific Partnership. So what I'm advising 784 00:57:47,280 --> 00:57:53,120 Speaker 2: is a much more robust engagement with the international system 785 00:57:53,200 --> 00:58:01,280 Speaker 2: than recent administrations. That's liberal internationalism, strength and in every dimension. 786 00:58:02,120 --> 00:58:09,120 Speaker 2: And an increased defense budget which stops China from narrowing 787 00:58:09,160 --> 00:58:13,520 Speaker 2: the gap and therefore produces deterrence for the across the 788 00:58:13,560 --> 00:58:17,240 Speaker 2: Taiwan Strait. And I know that'll be a hard sell 789 00:58:18,520 --> 00:58:22,480 Speaker 2: and the American people, the American will have to be persuaded. 790 00:58:22,960 --> 00:58:26,600 Speaker 2: But that's what we used to believe presidents do, which 791 00:58:26,720 --> 00:58:33,040 Speaker 2: is persuade the American people that what they want to do, 792 00:58:33,480 --> 00:58:37,600 Speaker 2: what America's role in the world should be, is part 793 00:58:37,640 --> 00:58:42,080 Speaker 2: of their job. And I think President Trump has articulated 794 00:58:42,120 --> 00:58:47,200 Speaker 2: a vision very powerfully. I think it's counter productive in 795 00:58:47,240 --> 00:58:51,880 Speaker 2: almost every way, but he's worked hard at it. The 796 00:58:51,920 --> 00:58:56,320 Speaker 2: next president, if it proceeds anywhere near along the lines, 797 00:58:56,400 --> 00:59:02,520 Speaker 2: I would like he or she will in an equally 798 00:59:03,320 --> 00:59:08,040 Speaker 2: resolute way give the American people, beginning in the campaign, 799 00:59:08,720 --> 00:59:12,040 Speaker 2: a different view of America's role in the world and 800 00:59:12,080 --> 00:59:16,320 Speaker 2: the role in which they and their children are going 801 00:59:16,400 --> 00:59:20,480 Speaker 2: to live. And to go back to the most primary point, 802 00:59:21,120 --> 00:59:26,120 Speaker 2: do the American people really want to live in mister 803 00:59:26,240 --> 00:59:29,600 Speaker 2: Miller's world? Do they really want to live in a 804 00:59:29,680 --> 00:59:36,880 Speaker 2: world without rules, in which the strong dictate to the week, 805 00:59:37,040 --> 00:59:42,360 Speaker 2: without any without any framework of right and wrong? Do 806 00:59:42,400 --> 00:59:44,640 Speaker 2: they want to live in the world in which the 807 00:59:44,680 --> 00:59:50,640 Speaker 2: American president says, I operate in no moral context, what 808 00:59:50,800 --> 00:59:54,800 Speaker 2: I decide is right or wrong. Is that the world 809 00:59:54,840 --> 00:59:57,640 Speaker 2: they want their kids to live in. It's not the 810 00:59:57,680 --> 01:00:01,720 Speaker 2: world I want my kids and grand kids to live in. 811 01:00:02,240 --> 01:00:04,360 Speaker 1: Let me get you out of here on this, which 812 01:00:04,400 --> 01:00:07,200 Speaker 1: is you talk about that we're headed to this bipolar world? 813 01:00:08,520 --> 01:00:11,600 Speaker 1: And you know, I think in maps, and I think 814 01:00:11,600 --> 01:00:14,560 Speaker 1: in numbers, and I think in states, and I look 815 01:00:14,560 --> 01:00:17,600 Speaker 1: at the world and I look at continents, and China's 816 01:00:17,640 --> 01:00:21,280 Speaker 1: ahead of America in Africa, China might be a head 817 01:00:21,280 --> 01:00:24,880 Speaker 1: of America in South America. China might be ahead of 818 01:00:24,920 --> 01:00:31,720 Speaker 1: America in Asia, not in Europe. And you know it's maybe, 819 01:00:32,200 --> 01:00:34,520 Speaker 1: maybe we have a slight advantage in the Middle East, 820 01:00:34,640 --> 01:00:39,000 Speaker 1: But are we behind when it comes to this great competition? 821 01:00:39,040 --> 01:00:41,120 Speaker 1: If this is indeed where we're headed. 822 01:00:42,120 --> 01:00:47,360 Speaker 2: Not yet, But the trends are bad the military trends 823 01:00:47,400 --> 01:00:52,160 Speaker 2: are bad, and that's the reason I believe we need 824 01:00:52,200 --> 01:00:56,520 Speaker 2: to increase our defense budget and reform our defense processes 825 01:00:56,560 --> 01:01:00,200 Speaker 2: and acquisition and all the rest. So militarily, the app 826 01:01:00,280 --> 01:01:08,880 Speaker 2: is dramatically closed. China's diplomacy is still outmatched by American diplomacy. 827 01:01:08,920 --> 01:01:13,400 Speaker 2: Look who's negotiating, uh, the Gazza, the Gaza cease fire 828 01:01:13,600 --> 01:01:14,840 Speaker 2: and Ukraine and support. 829 01:01:15,200 --> 01:01:16,880 Speaker 1: But I got rid of a ID that wasn't a 830 01:01:16,880 --> 01:01:17,320 Speaker 1: good idea. 831 01:01:17,640 --> 01:01:20,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, but they they are gaining ground. And then of 832 01:01:20,920 --> 01:01:28,360 Speaker 2: course economically, they are forging business deals and trade agreements 833 01:01:29,600 --> 01:01:35,000 Speaker 2: with India, with Europe, with so forth. While we have 834 01:01:35,080 --> 01:01:41,520 Speaker 2: a basically a we will course you into an agreement 835 01:01:42,480 --> 01:01:50,360 Speaker 2: in principle which is condemned by your domestic audiences, and 836 01:01:50,440 --> 01:01:53,280 Speaker 2: we'll see if they really come to pass. And just 837 01:01:53,560 --> 01:02:00,120 Speaker 2: a word, the President said in the last week that 838 01:02:00,160 --> 01:02:06,479 Speaker 2: we'd produced a miraculous new trade agreement with India, where 839 01:02:06,480 --> 01:02:11,760 Speaker 2: I spent from your ambassador, and Mody now is in 840 01:02:12,800 --> 01:02:19,600 Speaker 2: across the board attacks that that agreement in general does 841 01:02:19,640 --> 01:02:26,680 Speaker 2: not protect Indian vital national interest. So we are losing 842 01:02:26,760 --> 01:02:31,919 Speaker 2: ground and contempt for the Third World. Quite apart from 843 01:02:31,960 --> 01:02:36,480 Speaker 2: the moral vacuum that is is over the long run, 844 01:02:39,080 --> 01:02:42,720 Speaker 2: detrimental to American national interests if you look at the 845 01:02:42,760 --> 01:02:48,440 Speaker 2: population trends, if you look at where the minerals are 846 01:02:48,480 --> 01:02:52,440 Speaker 2: and so forth. And to just talk about the Third 847 01:02:52,480 --> 01:03:01,040 Speaker 2: World as if it was only a swamp that can 848 01:03:01,120 --> 01:03:06,800 Speaker 2: never be rescued the way the president does is just 849 01:03:07,200 --> 01:03:08,200 Speaker 2: bad strategy. 850 01:03:08,840 --> 01:03:12,880 Speaker 1: You are proving, you are proving your experience as a diplomat. 851 01:03:13,480 --> 01:03:15,240 Speaker 1: I think what you're referring to is when he would 852 01:03:15,240 --> 01:03:17,760 Speaker 1: call them s whole countries. But I can say it, 853 01:03:17,800 --> 01:03:19,760 Speaker 1: and I know you will never say it that way, 854 01:03:19,760 --> 01:03:20,680 Speaker 1: but that is what he did. 855 01:03:21,360 --> 01:03:25,400 Speaker 2: Well, that is what he did, you know, and I 856 01:03:25,440 --> 01:03:27,200 Speaker 2: want to say that. I don't want to end. We're 857 01:03:27,200 --> 01:03:29,760 Speaker 2: getting her then on a negative note. But the one 858 01:03:29,800 --> 01:03:33,200 Speaker 2: thing I would say two, I think America remains the 859 01:03:33,240 --> 01:03:39,920 Speaker 2: most powerful country on Earth, militarily, economically, and diplomatically. So 860 01:03:40,040 --> 01:03:45,080 Speaker 2: we have vast instruments to help shape world order to 861 01:03:45,200 --> 01:03:49,520 Speaker 2: our benefit and to the benefit of our values. That's 862 01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:52,960 Speaker 2: number one, and that will be true at the end 863 01:03:53,240 --> 01:04:00,800 Speaker 2: of the Trump administration. But number two is that the 864 01:04:00,920 --> 01:04:06,400 Speaker 2: trends are against us, and President Trump with three more 865 01:04:06,520 --> 01:04:10,360 Speaker 2: years in office, I do not believe is going to 866 01:04:10,480 --> 01:04:14,280 Speaker 2: change his view of the world or how he operates. 867 01:04:15,040 --> 01:04:18,320 Speaker 2: I believe this is what you see is what you get. 868 01:04:18,920 --> 01:04:22,720 Speaker 2: He's believed many of these things. He's detested the Europeans 869 01:04:23,240 --> 01:04:27,120 Speaker 2: and their democrats and their democracies for half a century 870 01:04:27,200 --> 01:04:29,920 Speaker 2: or more. He's not going to change. He's not going 871 01:04:29,960 --> 01:04:34,600 Speaker 2: to change his attraction to autocratic government and so forth. 872 01:04:35,000 --> 01:04:44,040 Speaker 2: So we're powerful, but we are in this very dangerous 873 01:04:45,560 --> 01:04:48,360 Speaker 2: next three years of the combination of the growth of 874 01:04:48,440 --> 01:04:53,480 Speaker 2: Chinese power and a president who does not defend either 875 01:04:54,760 --> 01:04:59,880 Speaker 2: traditional American national security, vital national interests, or American values. 876 01:05:01,120 --> 01:05:08,280 Speaker 1: Well, hopefully this is a document that many a presidential 877 01:05:08,320 --> 01:05:11,840 Speaker 1: candidate reads and absorbs on both sides of the aisle. 878 01:05:12,320 --> 01:05:15,160 Speaker 1: And here's hoping we can actually have a debate, though 879 01:05:15,200 --> 01:05:19,480 Speaker 1: I fear our twenty twenty presidential primary debates will have 880 01:05:20,200 --> 01:05:22,840 Speaker 1: a couple of questions on Taiwan and Ukraine and then 881 01:05:22,880 --> 01:05:26,160 Speaker 1: everything else will be back to domestic. But you of 882 01:05:26,240 --> 01:05:29,400 Speaker 1: outlined why we need a better debate about America's role 883 01:05:29,400 --> 01:05:31,680 Speaker 1: in the world, and hopefully we'll get one. Bob'says terrific. 884 01:05:32,320 --> 01:05:33,920 Speaker 1: Great to catch up with you. I always learn a 885 01:05:34,000 --> 01:05:34,960 Speaker 1: ton from you. 886 01:05:35,080 --> 01:05:36,280 Speaker 2: Thank you very much for having me