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Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Bloomberg eleventh, to Washington, d C,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg twelve honors, to San Francisco, Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: to the Country series at Channel one ninety and around

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Speaker 1: the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus append Bloomberg dot Com.

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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance thirty on Wall Street. I'm Michael

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Speaker 1: McKee along with Tom Keane. Economic Indicators brought you by

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Speaker 1: Commonwealth Financial Network. When it's time to change the conversation,

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Speaker 1: talk with a broker dealer R I A that's ready

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Speaker 1: to listen all six two three six three eight or

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Speaker 1: is it Commonwealth dot com? To learn more, Let's go

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Speaker 1: to any Dell ju days at the First World Desk

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Speaker 1: for today's numbers. Surprising data. Michael on jobless claims they're

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Speaker 1: up up by twenty thousand, a two hundred ninety four

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Speaker 1: thousand economists that expected a lower reading. And it's coming

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Speaker 1: on the heels of last week's report on payroll growth

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Speaker 1: showing April payroll growth load. Now that was March payroll

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Speaker 1: growth sold. I'm sorry. Now let's look at inflation. The

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Speaker 1: import price index up point three percent in April month

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Speaker 1: over month lower than forecast year over year, I drop

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Speaker 1: five point seven percent. Again, you know what I was wrong.

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Speaker 1: I've been talking about April May March. I've been on vacation.

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Speaker 1: It was the April employment report, and these are April

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Speaker 1: import numbers and jobless claims were for last week. So again,

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Speaker 1: jobless claims soaring up by twenty two nine four thousand

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Speaker 1: on the heel of that week April payroll report, import

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Speaker 1: prices up point three percent. At the Bloombark First workdsk

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Speaker 1: on foot felt Judice a little bit confused. But back, Mike,

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Speaker 1: is it the elevation for video? I mean, is well?

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Speaker 1: You know what they do out in Colorado eight weeks

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Speaker 1: that was terrible. Let's bringing Chris now and ask him

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Speaker 1: about these surprising numbers. Chris's with m u f G

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Speaker 1: union bag. I get a note here, Chris that says

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Speaker 1: you can pronounce the m u f G. How do

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Speaker 1: you pronounce that m uf chi Okay, you don't say

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Speaker 1: as a word. You don't say muffa, No, we do not, alright,

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Speaker 1: Uh two thousand. That's got to make people sit up

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Speaker 1: and take note, because everybody's been saying, uh, jobless times

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Speaker 1: are the best contemporary indicator of how things are going

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Speaker 1: in the labor market. We passed off, you know, worry

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Speaker 1: about the April payroll report because jobless claims were still

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Speaker 1: low and now maybe not so much. Yeah, well, maybe

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Speaker 1: I'm just whistling in the dark. It's it's nothing for

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Speaker 1: the moment. Now it looks a little strange here. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that is not a good level. We are just at

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Speaker 1: the best level since the nineteen seventies, two forty seven

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Speaker 1: thousand a few weeks ago. Now it's two nine four Now.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes it gets a little bumpy here around when we

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Speaker 1: get around the turn of the month, especially this month,

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Speaker 1: when we're going you know, we're quickly approaching the summer.

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Speaker 1: But this stands out as being you know, it looks

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Speaker 1: a little bit worrisome. I mean, we've seen some not

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Speaker 1: so good headlines out there. You know, Intel lays off

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Speaker 1: twelve thousand people. Uh, there's signs that there's too many

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Speaker 1: aircraft in the air right now and the markets full

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Speaker 1: there that you know, there's some worrisome things out there.

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Speaker 1: But you can't really have a slowdown in the economy

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Speaker 1: without job losses. But here in the last two weeks,

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Speaker 1: claim claims rising it's a little strange. The granularity of

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Speaker 1: your research note for m UFG Union Bank is simple.

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Speaker 1: You get to see a tip point where a quarter

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Speaker 1: gets better. Is the second quarter tilting two weaker numbers?

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Speaker 1: Or is the second quarter going to surprise us by

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Speaker 1: getting better as we stagger into May and into June. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's the interesting thing. The last three years now,

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Speaker 1: the first quarter of the year has been a dud,

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Speaker 1: and policymakers say, let's wait to see if the economy recovers,

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Speaker 1: and each and every year it has. We don't know

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Speaker 1: this year. But the interesting thing this year is that

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Speaker 1: the jobs market was absolutely spot on perfect in the

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Speaker 1: first quarter and growth was slow. Now could that switch?

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Speaker 1: Could the job market look a little more suspect or

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Speaker 1: perhaps some slowing and jobs growth while the economic growth

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Speaker 1: picks back up to two We don't know. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is the first I'm a little bit surprised by

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Speaker 1: this news today. Thousand that's not a good level. We

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Speaker 1: want to see that come down in the next couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks. Well, jobless claims measure people who lost their

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Speaker 1: jobs and obviously the payroll for people who got jobs.

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Speaker 1: We could see both happening at the same time, I

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Speaker 1: would imagine Danny the question is I mean, Danny still

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Speaker 1: thinking of our last guys, Chris Um. The question is

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Speaker 1: does this suggest that there's some sort of fear in

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Speaker 1: the c suite that people are overstaffed. Yeah, that's what

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Speaker 1: I would worry about. And again going back to those headlines.

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Speaker 1: You know, for the longest time, the weakness in the

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Speaker 1: economy was the oil and gas drilling and mining sector.

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Speaker 1: A lot of job losses there, but other you know,

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Speaker 1: we just got numbers yesterday showing the number of job

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Speaker 1: openings where the second highest in history in the month

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Speaker 1: of March. But all that is rear view mirror type

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Speaker 1: of stuff. The most immediate number for what is wrong

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Speaker 1: or right in the labor market is always going to

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Speaker 1: be the weekly job of claims numbers. So uh, this

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Speaker 1: could be pointing. It's pointing in a darkening Skies direction

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Speaker 1: at the moment, but it is volatile. I mean, we

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Speaker 1: really need to see this come back down to you know,

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Speaker 1: like two fifty something like that. Two fifty thousand people

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Speaker 1: line for jobless benefits because they've been laid off. It's

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Speaker 1: not a good sign this morning. Just rupt you define

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Speaker 1: curve flattening right now? What are we seeing? I mean

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Speaker 1: we were under a hundred beeps early this morning. Right

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Speaker 1: now at one one percentage point between the two year

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Speaker 1: and the ten year. What are the dynamics that you

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Speaker 1: see in the two stents spread? Well, I think the

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Speaker 1: problem is the curves. There's a horrible distortion going on

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Speaker 1: right now on the yield curve, and it's it's lost

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Speaker 1: its signal power. If you're looking for like the curve

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Speaker 1: to invert going into to signal that the economy is

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Speaker 1: getting ready to go into a recession. You know, the

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Speaker 1: problem is the set of left rates down here for

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Speaker 1: so long that the whole world is swapping interest rate

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Speaker 1: payments from fixed to paying uh zero point six percent floating,

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Speaker 1: and this is what is driving down the ten year

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Speaker 1: yields into the mud down to one where it fits.

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Speaker 1: So the curve just isn't the play that used to have. Chris,

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Speaker 1: We're gonna have to leave it there, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: With the m u f G Union Bank, Chris future

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Speaker 1: is up thirteen, Dow futures up seventy nine, the yield

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Speaker 1: one point. This hour of surveillance brought you by Palisades

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Speaker 1: Doughty visit Palisades Doughty dot com. Here's Michael Barr with

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Speaker 1: news headlines. Mike Tom, thank you very much. It is

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Speaker 1: the latest chapter in Brazil's political crisis. Lawmakers and peach

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Speaker 1: President Dilma Roussof. She's been suspended for up to six

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Speaker 1: months while the Senate tries here for allegedly using accounting

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Speaker 1: tricks to hide large budget deficits. The impeachment trial will

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Speaker 1: determine whether Russof can serve out her second term or

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Speaker 1: whether her vice president, Michelle Timer, will take her place

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Speaker 1: through December. The man who shot and killed teenager Trayvon

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Speaker 1: Martin in Florida is putting the gunny used up for auction.

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Speaker 1: George Zimmerman was a neighborhood and Watch volunteer when he

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Speaker 1: shot Martin, who was unarmed. What I've decided to do

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Speaker 1: is not power. I'm a free American and I can

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Speaker 1: do what I like with my possessions. Zimmerman was acquitted

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Speaker 1: of the twelve shooting. The online bidding for the nine

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Speaker 1: millimeter pistol starts at five thousand dollars. The World Health

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Speaker 1: Organization says ninety percent of people living in large cities

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Speaker 1: of lower and middle income countries are facing excessively high

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Speaker 1: air pollution. According to the w h L Report, global

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Speaker 1: or urban air pollution doubles rose eight percent. Global News

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Speaker 1: twenty four hours a day, powered by our twenty four

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Speaker 1: hundred journalists more than a hundred fifty news bureaus from

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Speaker 1: around the world. I'm Michael Barr, Mike tom all right,

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Speaker 1: thank you, Michael. Time now for the Landroverer Parcipani Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: NBC Sports Update with John Stashaw. John alright, Mike, hard

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Speaker 1: to win a baseball game single handedly, but pretty much

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Speaker 1: happened last night for the Mets. He swings and flies

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Speaker 1: one at each center field Baccos Peterson near the wall.

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Speaker 1: It's a sender of this second hard run of the night,

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Speaker 1: three run shots. Why in four days after Bartolo cologne

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Speaker 1: shocking home run, synder Guard drove in all four Mets

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Speaker 1: runs and on the mound put in eight solid and

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Speaker 1: AA's Mets bet the Dodgers four to three. First met

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Speaker 1: picture the Homers twice in the games, and Walt Harrelle

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Speaker 1: Mets half game ahead of Washington, who had quite a

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Speaker 1: night for Mits. Picture match sers her major league record

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Speaker 1: tying twenties strikeouts against his old team Detroit. Five different

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Speaker 1: Tigers struck out three times the Nationals one three to two.

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Speaker 1: Yankees fell behind four nothing in the first inning. They

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Speaker 1: cut the Kansas City lead to for three, but fell

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Speaker 1: seven three. Michael Pinata dropped to one in four. He's

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Speaker 1: got a six c r A Red Sox beet Oakland

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Speaker 1: thirteen to three. Boston scored forty runs in three games

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Speaker 1: against the Gates NBA Playoffs. Golden Stain finished off Portland's

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Speaker 1: taking Game five one twenty one. Clay Thompson thirty three points.

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Speaker 1: The m v P. Steph Curry had twenty nine Warriors

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Speaker 1: into the West Finals Toronto at all the Way held

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Speaker 1: on at the end one over Miami for a three

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Speaker 1: two series lead. St. Louis Blues headed of the Stanley

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Speaker 1: Cup Inference Finals first time in fifteen years. Not much

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Speaker 1: of a Game seven in Dallas, the Blues wanted six

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Speaker 1: to one. With the Bloomberg NBC Sports Update, I'm John

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Speaker 1: step Shower, Thank you John greatly. PS Michael. I don't

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Speaker 1: want to editorialize, but but may I opine please? National

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Speaker 1: League ball is better than American League ball. I I

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Speaker 1: don't disagree with you we'll get We'll get more letters

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Speaker 1: on this than anything else you've said you could do.

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Speaker 1: This is mrccarney. No one cares. Nobody cares. I'm sorry.

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Speaker 1: The pitcher went up and put the ball over the

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Speaker 1: wall twice. Yes, that, and you're the American League fans,

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Speaker 1: so this is unusual. I just I'm to Homer performance

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Speaker 1: four to three ments. Adam Reuben, we love her. ESPN

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Speaker 1: just a killer National League Baseball fan. The Designated HITTERR.

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Speaker 1: We're opinion free, Bloomberg surveillance. The Sports Report brought to

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Speaker 1: you by Lander Parcipii. The spring sales event happening now.

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Speaker 1: Visit landroper parcipi dot com. Landrober above and Ria