1 00:00:01,400 --> 00:00:04,120 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, along 2 00:00:04,120 --> 00:00:06,240 Speaker 1: with my co host of Bonnie Quinn. Every business day 3 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:10,400 Speaker 1: we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, 4 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 1: along with essential market moving news. Kind the Bloomberg Markets 5 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: Podcast on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:21,759 Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com. It is time for Bloomberg Opinion. 7 00:00:22,000 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 1: We're pleased to be joined by Bloomberg Opinion colums Peter Back. 8 00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:27,520 Speaker 1: He's a director at the Center for Health Policy and 9 00:00:27,640 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 1: Outcomes at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center in New York City. 10 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:34,840 Speaker 1: Dr Box, thanks so much for joining us here. Really 11 00:00:34,880 --> 00:00:38,960 Speaker 1: fascinating column you have out talking about hospitals and the 12 00:00:39,040 --> 00:00:41,960 Speaker 1: drug that's getting a lot of i think press and 13 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:44,560 Speaker 1: a lot of attention for treatment, which is ROMM depth severe. 14 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 1: Give us a sense of kind of how hospitals are 15 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:50,320 Speaker 1: viewing this drug, how successful it has proven to be, 16 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:53,680 Speaker 1: and what you think it's future might be. Well, good morning, 17 00:00:53,720 --> 00:00:56,400 Speaker 1: Thanks so much for having me. The drug it's a 18 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 1: drug that works against the COVID virus, has some data 19 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:04,000 Speaker 1: us suggesting it helps speed the recovery of COVID patients 20 00:01:04,160 --> 00:01:06,520 Speaker 1: and we don't really have a lot of other treatments 21 00:01:06,520 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 1: out there. So there's enthusiasm, but right now there's a shortage. 22 00:01:10,840 --> 00:01:13,840 Speaker 1: The drug costs a tremendous amount of money. It's about 23 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:17,360 Speaker 1: three thou dollars plus per treatment course. It has no 24 00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 1: data that demonstrates convincingly it saves lives, and uh, the 25 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:27,160 Speaker 1: administration has sought to corner the worldwide market for it 26 00:01:27,440 --> 00:01:31,959 Speaker 1: so hospitals can use it. But with all that optimism, 27 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:35,720 Speaker 1: my column focuses on two things. One is the data 28 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:39,720 Speaker 1: on remdesiviere is from a different time, even though it's 29 00:01:39,720 --> 00:01:42,679 Speaker 1: a few months ago. It was studied on older people. 30 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 1: The pandemic has moved to younger people, and it was 31 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 1: studied without steroids, deck and me etho zone specifically, which 32 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 1: is clearly showing an ability to save lives. And so 33 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:57,600 Speaker 1: now we need to understand is remdesiviere have a place 34 00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:01,000 Speaker 1: here before we proceed to give it to a bunch 35 00:02:01,000 --> 00:02:04,320 Speaker 1: of people and spend billions of dollars on it. Dr Bach, 36 00:02:04,400 --> 00:02:08,359 Speaker 1: what can we say categorically and scientifically about round U 37 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:12,680 Speaker 1: severe in terms of its relationship with COVID nineteen, We 38 00:02:12,720 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 1: can say that there is one study that shows it 39 00:02:16,080 --> 00:02:20,200 Speaker 1: shortens the duration of illness. Uh, and that is about it. 40 00:02:20,320 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 1: That's good news that don't get me wrong. But this 41 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:27,440 Speaker 1: is not the panacea. This doesn't turn around the pandemic. 42 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:29,520 Speaker 1: This doesn't mean we can get rid of masks or 43 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:32,399 Speaker 1: go back to school or anything like that. We need 44 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:36,560 Speaker 1: to make these incremental steps. That's how it always works. 45 00:02:36,600 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 1: And so this is not a disparagement of this piece 46 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:43,840 Speaker 1: of progress. It's a fair reckoning with just how big 47 00:02:43,880 --> 00:02:48,679 Speaker 1: these steps typically are, which is not very dr buck. 48 00:02:48,720 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 1: You know, I'm reading more, and I guess we're all 49 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 1: reading more and more stories about hospitals in southern California 50 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,680 Speaker 1: and Texas and far to being overrun. No more, I 51 00:02:56,760 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 1: see you beds available. It's just it's just a simple 52 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:03,279 Speaker 1: replay of what we experienced in the New York metropolitan 53 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:06,880 Speaker 1: market back in March and early April. Are you surprised 54 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:11,799 Speaker 1: that the hospital system across the country, given what they 55 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:17,560 Speaker 1: witnessed in New York metro area, aren't better prepared? No, 56 00:03:17,680 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 1: I'm not. Part of it is you know, triumph of 57 00:03:20,080 --> 00:03:23,959 Speaker 1: hope over experience, the optimism that you know, it hasn't 58 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 1: happened here, so it won't happen. Uh ever, but it's 59 00:03:28,080 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 1: also these are you know, fixed physical structures. They can't 60 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 1: suddenly have four times as many I see you beds. Uh. 61 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 1: There are serious limitations to workforce surge. There's not that 62 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 1: much supply, there's personal protective equipment. People are scattered across 63 00:03:45,280 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 1: the country, and moving people is difficult. And so no, 64 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 1: I'm not surprised at all. We knew from the beginning 65 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 1: that our most limited, our biggest constraint in handling this 66 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:00,800 Speaker 1: pandemic was the health care system itself. Was the reason 67 00:04:00,920 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 1: we tried to flatten the curve so we could both 68 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:07,400 Speaker 1: get better at treating this and also maintain, if you will, 69 00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:11,920 Speaker 1: a steady, manageable flow of patients. And we have failed 70 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:15,840 Speaker 1: to do that, even though every other Western country has succeeded. 71 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:21,840 Speaker 1: I think because we have foolishly sat around saying, oh, well, 72 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 1: we'll get a vaccine soon so we can be casual 73 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:29,240 Speaker 1: about this. We've allowed ideology to creep into public health planning. 74 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 1: Maybe more creep in, how about trample over And you know, 75 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:37,679 Speaker 1: so I'm not surprised by any of this. And these 76 00:04:37,720 --> 00:04:41,560 Speaker 1: hospitals are I think, you know, pushed to the limit, 77 00:04:42,120 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 1: and they are not designed in almost any cases to 78 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:49,280 Speaker 1: focus purely on the management of one problem. They manage 79 00:04:49,320 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: a mix of problems in a ratio where there various 80 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:57,680 Speaker 1: constraints hospital beds, staffing, I V. Tubing, Everything is kind 81 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 1: of gets them there, but dr bach when it comes 82 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:03,440 Speaker 1: to the round us of your problem and the fact 83 00:05:03,560 --> 00:05:06,480 Speaker 1: that there aren't significant, large scale trials that can tell 84 00:05:06,520 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 1: us exactly what it can and can't do. When it 85 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:11,159 Speaker 1: comes to coronavirus, how do you get around the fact 86 00:05:11,200 --> 00:05:15,280 Speaker 1: that in a pandemic people jump on anything that looks 87 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:17,720 Speaker 1: like it might work. But for a trial to give 88 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:20,640 Speaker 1: us any real information, you need one sick person and 89 00:05:20,760 --> 00:05:24,159 Speaker 1: one other sick person. One gets the treatment, one doesn't. 90 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 1: How do you make that kind of moral judgment at 91 00:05:26,560 --> 00:05:29,520 Speaker 1: a time like this, Well, it's you know, this is 92 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 1: the foundation of empirical science, that we take our time, 93 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:37,120 Speaker 1: that we don't assume our guesses are right. And this 94 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:40,560 Speaker 1: isn't some fake humility. This is a hard learned humility 95 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:43,560 Speaker 1: from having been shown over and over again our guesses 96 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:47,520 Speaker 1: were wrong, and so we have to do the studies 97 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:51,600 Speaker 1: for exactly the reasons you're suggesting. There's an argument that 98 00:05:51,680 --> 00:05:54,320 Speaker 1: we shouldn't be doing them. We are in a crisis 99 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,680 Speaker 1: that is exploding and expanding around us. What we learned 100 00:05:57,760 --> 00:06:02,040 Speaker 1: today will have impact on ten times, a hundred times, 101 00:06:02,040 --> 00:06:05,520 Speaker 1: potentially a thousand times as many people down the road. 102 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:09,599 Speaker 1: And so that is one element of the moral or 103 00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:14,200 Speaker 1: ethical underpinning of research. Another is, frankly, we have a 104 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:17,600 Speaker 1: rimmed desevere shortage. So what I'm calling for is let's 105 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:19,919 Speaker 1: go do a trial. Let's it will take maybe about 106 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,720 Speaker 1: two thousand people. We could enroll such a trial, get 107 00:06:22,720 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 1: the patients for it in a matter of days. Unfortunately, 108 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:28,799 Speaker 1: because of the number of people coming into hospital, everyone 109 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:31,159 Speaker 1: gets decks of methods m which we know saves lives. 110 00:06:31,360 --> 00:06:35,159 Speaker 1: Half get rammed deseverere hal get placebo or some other control. 111 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:39,120 Speaker 1: We will know in fourteen days and a month whether 112 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 1: or not we're out of time. I'm afraid we'll We'll 113 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:45,919 Speaker 1: revisit this, Thank you so much. Well. One of the 114 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:49,200 Speaker 1: byproducts of this pandemic is it's just kind of exacerbating 115 00:06:49,240 --> 00:06:51,320 Speaker 1: or highlighting some of the tensions between a lot of 116 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:55,920 Speaker 1: nations across the world. And clearly it's a unique time here, 117 00:06:55,920 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 1: and one of the questions is how will the new 118 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:02,920 Speaker 1: world order look post pandemic as we think about kind 119 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:04,839 Speaker 1: of how the United States may or may not lead 120 00:07:04,839 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 1: in how your positioning of Europe and so on. So 121 00:07:07,160 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 1: there's no one better to discuss these big, big geopolitical 122 00:07:10,120 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 1: issues in Alan Crawford, Senior editor International Government for Bloomberg News, 123 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:16,800 Speaker 1: joins us on the phone from Berlin. Alan, thanks so 124 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:18,679 Speaker 1: much for joining us here. You're out with this story 125 00:07:18,720 --> 00:07:21,440 Speaker 1: a few days ago, A new world order for the 126 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: coronaviruy era is starting to emerge. Give us a sense 127 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 1: of how you think this new world order may look. Well, 128 00:07:30,680 --> 00:07:33,400 Speaker 1: I think we all get the feeling that there's something 129 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 1: momentous underway, and so I tried to take a step 130 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 1: back to take a look at where we are six 131 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 1: months and and already there are definite trains that we 132 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 1: see that the US and I have to see it 133 00:07:48,880 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 1: from an outsaye perspective, it just looks regardless of the politics, 134 00:07:54,760 --> 00:07:58,640 Speaker 1: it just looks as if it's increasingly self obsorbed. I 135 00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:01,680 Speaker 1: head of going into the nev election, of course, but 136 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:05,160 Speaker 1: also with the pandemic, it is having to this this 137 00:08:05,400 --> 00:08:09,720 Speaker 1: terrible envirus, and it's occupied U as far as the 138 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:12,680 Speaker 1: outside world is concerned. But then of course we're seeing 139 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 1: China for for reasons of its own that I don't 140 00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:20,960 Speaker 1: think are completely understood. It's there are these high frictions 141 00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 1: with countries from Canada to Australia, to the UK over 142 00:08:25,080 --> 00:08:28,480 Speaker 1: Hong Kong, and of course with the US as well, 143 00:08:29,040 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 1: and these are all coming together at once, and then 144 00:08:31,000 --> 00:08:34,600 Speaker 1: Europe is in this kind of strange in between position 145 00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 1: where it's trying to it there are signs that may 146 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:42,319 Speaker 1: just emerge from this crisis stronger. What will be the 147 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:45,680 Speaker 1: decisive moment at which it really becomes obvious that China 148 00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 1: has already sort of become a bigger figure in world 149 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:53,960 Speaker 1: politics than maybe the US and Europe had given it 150 00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:58,719 Speaker 1: credit for. Well, I mean, if we're looking at the 151 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:01,679 Speaker 1: six months ahead, and obvious we um the US elections 152 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:04,200 Speaker 1: a huge it's the elephant in the room, if you like. 153 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 1: And certainly the the the analysts that I spoke to, 154 00:09:08,320 --> 00:09:12,680 Speaker 1: they were somewhat wary about um conflicts ahead. I'm not 155 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:16,119 Speaker 1: talking about open conflict, but you know, tensions, more frictions 156 00:09:16,520 --> 00:09:20,960 Speaker 1: ahead of the November election. But equally, as I said 157 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:25,200 Speaker 1: that China is, it's there's all these frictions with other 158 00:09:25,240 --> 00:09:28,839 Speaker 1: countries middling powers if you like. And I think that 159 00:09:29,000 --> 00:09:33,720 Speaker 1: the saints is that these countries, like well across the EU, 160 00:09:33,840 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 1: the UK, Assulia, Canada and others, they are being faced 161 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:42,200 Speaker 1: with a very difficult choice. Do they stand up to 162 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:46,920 Speaker 1: China or do they basically try and keep their head down. 163 00:09:47,400 --> 00:09:50,720 Speaker 1: And I think that there's a sense that their decision 164 00:09:50,760 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 1: will actually go a long way towards determining the approach 165 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 1: to China. So it's interesting here We're gonna have you 166 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:01,240 Speaker 1: mentioned the election, And let's say, for argument's sake, that 167 00:10:01,320 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 1: the that Vice President Biden wins the election, does the 168 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:09,240 Speaker 1: does his Secretary State spend the first one days administration 169 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 1: simply on a plane traveling around to all these countries 170 00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 1: saying that, Okay, those last four years, just forget them. 171 00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 1: We're going back to businesses as usual. We are your friend, 172 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 1: we will be part of the solution. We will lead 173 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:24,199 Speaker 1: you against you know, whether it was a Cold warf 174 00:10:24,800 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 1: thirty or forty years ago to whatever way is we 175 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:30,760 Speaker 1: have in the future, I think undoubtedly that would be 176 00:10:30,800 --> 00:10:33,720 Speaker 1: the case. But for what effect that would have, I'm 177 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: not sure, because on the one hand, yes, it was 178 00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 1: room to improve relations um. On the other then really 179 00:10:41,920 --> 00:10:48,400 Speaker 1: detensions between for example, European countries and France Germany with 180 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: the with the Trump administration, then that has really highlighted 181 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 1: Europe's m europe dependence on the U S which is 182 00:10:57,240 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 1: as uh, it's obviously it goes back to the same 183 00:11:00,040 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 1: in World War and all of the help that the 184 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 1: US has given to Europe and the you know, the 185 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:12,120 Speaker 1: how essential the transatlantic relationship is. But really it's highlighted 186 00:11:12,320 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 1: just this this dependence. And I think that I know 187 00:11:15,559 --> 00:11:19,680 Speaker 1: that European governments and the EU independently are already taking 188 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:24,199 Speaker 1: step to try and to decoupled to some extent, to 189 00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 1: some limited extent. Alan you know, there's always this talk 190 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:32,720 Speaker 1: of clash of civilizations, you know, Henry Kissinger and Neil 191 00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 1: Ferguson talking about, you know, a new Cold War between 192 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:39,439 Speaker 1: the US and China. Those things though, are quite hyperbolic. 193 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:43,240 Speaker 1: Where is there any evidence that there will actually be 194 00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 1: sort of a breakout of conflict, you know, soft or 195 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 1: hard between you know, the bipolar countries in this war. Well, 196 00:11:54,840 --> 00:11:56,720 Speaker 1: certainly one of the islands that I was speaking to, 197 00:11:56,840 --> 00:12:01,000 Speaker 1: who sits in Singapore, then he said that, um, that 198 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:06,840 Speaker 1: his the greatest concern going forward, and he's talking short 199 00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 1: to medium term. Is not that there's some kind of 200 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 1: open conflict between the US and China, because the government's 201 00:12:15,520 --> 00:12:20,760 Speaker 1: obviously realized that that's it would be catastrophic. His concern 202 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:25,440 Speaker 1: is more that there is some kind of like basically mistake, 203 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:29,600 Speaker 1: some kind of error in in these high presentitive areas 204 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:32,080 Speaker 1: such as the South China Sea. Who are you know 205 00:12:32,120 --> 00:12:36,640 Speaker 1: the US has same two aircraft carriers through recently, uh, 206 00:12:36,640 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 1: And that there's more it's basically an accident that could happen. 207 00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:47,680 Speaker 1: That's that's what the concerns are and um, certainly among 208 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:53,959 Speaker 1: the analyst community. So Alan, what's the consensus of the 209 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:57,120 Speaker 1: European Union and Brexit and what the role the UK 210 00:12:57,559 --> 00:13:00,320 Speaker 1: may play here in a prose brexit world terms of 211 00:13:00,320 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 1: the world or or well, that's a good question. That's 212 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:09,760 Speaker 1: actually my next story I'm working on. But I mean, 213 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:13,720 Speaker 1: the UK is in a difficult position that it's it's 214 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 1: really setting out on its own to try and forward 215 00:13:17,480 --> 00:13:23,080 Speaker 1: its own um, its own path in this increasingly um 216 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:27,200 Speaker 1: increasingly attains world at the moment, and so that they 217 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:30,800 Speaker 1: are having the DEPARTMN Minister and Domini grab Con Secretary 218 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:33,959 Speaker 1: has made it clear that they have difficult choices ahead, 219 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:37,600 Speaker 1: and we're seeing that already over Hong Kong, we're seeing 220 00:13:37,640 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 1: it over Huawei. That's not not unique to the UK, 221 00:13:40,400 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 1: of course, but these are these are decisions which will 222 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:48,200 Speaker 1: have potentially very deep ramifications for its relations as an 223 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:52,080 Speaker 1: independent country, a middle and power when it's having to 224 00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:56,120 Speaker 1: deal with the superpowers of of China, but also with 225 00:13:56,320 --> 00:14:00,679 Speaker 1: the any with either the Trump administration, which strangely and 226 00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:04,360 Speaker 1: wants a treat deal, or the Biden Biden administration. We 227 00:14:04,440 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 1: don't know what their position would be on on on 228 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:11,760 Speaker 1: post projexit UK and a treat deal. Alan, looking forward 229 00:14:11,760 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 1: to seeing that story. But this particular story you about 230 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:17,640 Speaker 1: this this morning in the last couple of days, is fascinating. 231 00:14:17,640 --> 00:14:19,680 Speaker 1: Out urge everybody to read it. Alan Crawford a senior 232 00:14:19,760 --> 00:14:22,560 Speaker 1: editor for International Government and Bloomberg News, and his story 233 00:14:22,560 --> 00:14:24,720 Speaker 1: as a new world order for the coronavirus era is 234 00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 1: starting to emerge, and it is an interesting question Paul, 235 00:14:28,040 --> 00:14:30,480 Speaker 1: to talk about who Joe Biden might pick. You know, 236 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 1: in terms of foreign policy, we know already that he 237 00:14:32,880 --> 00:14:37,280 Speaker 1: has the former CIA deputy director on a potential transition 238 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 1: team worthy to become president at some point and you know, 239 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:43,480 Speaker 1: it looks like there might be you know, quite a 240 00:14:43,520 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 1: forceful stance there. So we have a deal today, Analog 241 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:53,680 Speaker 1: Devices acquiring Maximum Integrated Products twenty point nine billion dollars 242 00:14:53,760 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 1: or twenty two premium too Maxims closing shares Friday, and 243 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:02,720 Speaker 1: it's helping the NASDA lead the gains for the indussees today. 244 00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:04,600 Speaker 1: Let's bring somebody in who can tell us so all 245 00:15:04,640 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 1: the details about why this deal was done Wood and 246 00:15:07,280 --> 00:15:10,920 Speaker 1: who is senior technology analyst add Bloomberg Intelligence. We'll just 247 00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:15,600 Speaker 1: explained to us. First of all, why Analog would want Maximum. Great, 248 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:17,960 Speaker 1: thanks for having me on body. So this is all 249 00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:22,920 Speaker 1: about scale and trying to broaden Analog devices ship book print. 250 00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:27,440 Speaker 1: So the competter compete against the larger competitor Texas Instruments 251 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:31,520 Speaker 1: over the long term. So actually, Fannie, I should probably 252 00:15:31,560 --> 00:15:33,120 Speaker 1: let you know. The first thing I do when I 253 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 1: see an M and A deal in the news, I 254 00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 1: go to M A go and I see I type 255 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:38,880 Speaker 1: on there and I click click click on the deal. 256 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 1: I want to see who the advisors are, who are 257 00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 1: the bankers on this deal? And yes, it was be 258 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 1: of A Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley advising the buyer 259 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 1: on the sell side, JP Morgan. So so the big 260 00:15:49,800 --> 00:15:52,960 Speaker 1: heavyweight investment banks weighing in on this deal. So whould 261 00:15:53,200 --> 00:15:55,720 Speaker 1: can we look at this deal here? You talk about 262 00:15:55,720 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 1: it scale, we've heard that before. Give us a sense 263 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 1: of kind of how the same conductor industry is in 264 00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:04,640 Speaker 1: terms of consolidation. Is it's still a fragmented industry or 265 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:08,280 Speaker 1: redound to just a handful of heavyweights. Well, I mean 266 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 1: it is a bifurcating market. So you you have the 267 00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:15,840 Speaker 1: heavyweights like Texas Instruments, um. You know, as well as 268 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:20,920 Speaker 1: analog devices, you have microchip So you have these larger players, 269 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 1: and then you have a bunch of smaller players, specialized 270 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:29,160 Speaker 1: chip makers. UM. So to some degree, it's still fairly fragmented. 271 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:33,240 Speaker 1: Uh roughly, I would say about forty of the market 272 00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:35,960 Speaker 1: share go through these heavyweight players and then fragmented on 273 00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 1: the on the other side. UM. And the one thing 274 00:16:38,480 --> 00:16:41,160 Speaker 1: I will tell you is that look like this market 275 00:16:41,200 --> 00:16:44,680 Speaker 1: has been uh in a phase of consolidation over the 276 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:48,240 Speaker 1: last uh five years or so. Um. You know, it 277 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 1: took a hiatus for the last couple of years. Now 278 00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 1: it's finally it seems as if some companies are looking 279 00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 1: to come back and deal making and and and the 280 00:16:56,320 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 1: analog devices, and Maximum is an example of that. Who 281 00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:03,800 Speaker 1: didn't we have two D seventy five million dollar cost 282 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:07,440 Speaker 1: synergy announcement. It doesn't seem like a lot of cost synergies. 283 00:17:07,760 --> 00:17:13,200 Speaker 1: Am I expecting too much from a merged analog Maximum? Sure? So? So, 284 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:16,080 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, if you look at the scale 285 00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:18,679 Speaker 1: of of Maximum, there's there's really not much that you 286 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:21,360 Speaker 1: can take out. And if I look at the cost 287 00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 1: nergy opportunities here, it's on the gross margin side and 288 00:17:24,600 --> 00:17:27,399 Speaker 1: then uh, not much on the operating margin side. So 289 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:30,120 Speaker 1: on the ghost margin side, you can actually poured over 290 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:33,439 Speaker 1: some of the chip capacity over to the analog devices 291 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:37,240 Speaker 1: uh FABS and then on on on the the outputing 292 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:43,200 Speaker 1: expense side. Um uh Maximum has actually done a very 293 00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 1: good job a streamlining the organization over the last five years, 294 00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 1: so they were really running into the bone. There's a 295 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:53,320 Speaker 1: little bit that they could take away, but not that 296 00:17:53,400 --> 00:17:55,600 Speaker 1: much more. But but even then you are going to 297 00:17:55,680 --> 00:18:00,920 Speaker 1: still see the overall maximum margins in proved to where 298 00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:05,520 Speaker 1: analog devices is, which is around So we'll talk to 299 00:18:05,600 --> 00:18:08,240 Speaker 1: us about the end users here of some of the 300 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 1: chips that analog and maxim puts out it's a sense 301 00:18:10,800 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 1: of who their big customers are and what are some 302 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:15,560 Speaker 1: of the growth drivers for their part of the chip industry. 303 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:20,960 Speaker 1: I wouldn't necessarily that UH call out any particular big 304 00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:25,440 Speaker 1: customers similar to someone like an inteler and Nvidio. If anything, 305 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:28,439 Speaker 1: these guys have a portfolio of over ten UH you know, 306 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 1: ten to twenty thousand ships combined addressing you know, UH, 307 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:38,160 Speaker 1: you know, fifteen thousand different customers. It'll go anywhere between 308 00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:43,159 Speaker 1: maximums exposure into your your Nintendo, UH, your your your 309 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:49,359 Speaker 1: Nintendo switch. Apple has exposure to UH some UH Analog 310 00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:53,600 Speaker 1: devices as an exposure to some Apple devices. Automotive, they're 311 00:18:53,600 --> 00:18:57,200 Speaker 1: they're very big on automotive, industrial robotics are very big 312 00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:01,560 Speaker 1: on UH in that sector, and also data center powered 313 00:19:01,640 --> 00:19:05,640 Speaker 1: chips and and UH and UH converted chips. So well, 314 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:09,800 Speaker 1: they're very broad based from from a customer and industrial perspective. Now, 315 00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:13,479 Speaker 1: these are two of the biggest semiconductor companies. There are 316 00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:16,720 Speaker 1: obviously bigger ones, but you know, Analog at forty three 317 00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 1: billion dollars market cap and you know maximum eighteen nine 318 00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 1: billion dollars, Well, who will be next? So even Finny 319 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:28,120 Speaker 1: and we have an XP skyworks really really really tough 320 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:31,520 Speaker 1: to say. Any Um, you know, I didn't think the 321 00:19:31,800 --> 00:19:36,080 Speaker 1: Maxim deal would happen now during the pandemic. Uh. You know, 322 00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:40,800 Speaker 1: I wouldn't be surprised if uh some of the smaller companies, 323 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:45,040 Speaker 1: some of these these smaller these fenders would come into play. Uh. 324 00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:47,479 Speaker 1: You know, I've I've seen some headlines where someone like 325 00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:51,119 Speaker 1: a serious Logic that provides chips to the iPhone, or 326 00:19:51,240 --> 00:19:56,440 Speaker 1: or semd Tech which which provides a wireless chip, wireless 327 00:19:56,520 --> 00:20:01,960 Speaker 1: chips to the uh to industrial applications, you know. And 328 00:20:02,160 --> 00:20:04,680 Speaker 1: then there's also you need to think that we need 329 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 1: to have a willing buyer as well. I mean, this 330 00:20:08,440 --> 00:20:13,360 Speaker 1: is an all stock deal which helps preserve analog devices cash. Uh. 331 00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 1: The one thing we do have to think about that 332 00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:20,439 Speaker 1: some of the larger companies, uh maybe in cash preservation mode, 333 00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 1: so they won't be able to use their cash as 334 00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:26,640 Speaker 1: much to consumate a large deal like this. Wiginho, thanks 335 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:28,880 Speaker 1: so much for joining us helping us break down this deal. 336 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 1: Wiginho is a senior tech analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He 337 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:37,200 Speaker 1: follows all the devices and the chip makers out there, 338 00:20:37,200 --> 00:20:42,320 Speaker 1: so we appreciate his opinion. Well, The responses to the 339 00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:46,800 Speaker 1: economic fallout of this pandemic have been swift and severe 340 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:48,640 Speaker 1: here in the United States. First, we had the Federal 341 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:52,119 Speaker 1: Reserve really step in and inject tremendous amount of liquidity 342 00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 1: UH into the marketplace. We've had three rounds of fiscal 343 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 1: stimulus coming out of Congress, capped by round three a 344 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:02,000 Speaker 1: couple of months ago, totally three trillion dollars UH. Now 345 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 1: pressure is building on a fourth round to come out 346 00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 1: of Washington, and that is less clear what will be 347 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:10,239 Speaker 1: in that and the size and the timing and so on. 348 00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 1: So to get an update here what it means in 349 00:21:12,840 --> 00:21:15,199 Speaker 1: the world of Washington and for a broader economy, we 350 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:19,040 Speaker 1: welcome Matt Girkin, geopolitical strategist for b c A Research 351 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:22,800 Speaker 1: based in Montreal, Quebec. Thanks so much for joining us. Matt. 352 00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 1: Let's just start off there. Fiscal stimulus round number four. 353 00:21:27,160 --> 00:21:31,119 Speaker 1: What do you expect? When do you expect it? Hey, 354 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 1: thanks for having me on. Well, I would expect something 355 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:37,480 Speaker 1: upward of two trillion US dollars and by the time 356 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:41,160 Speaker 1: then it goes for recess on August and the anything 357 00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,119 Speaker 1: much less than that, anything much less than with the 358 00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:47,280 Speaker 1: House impress past three trillion risks forcing the U S 359 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:50,879 Speaker 1: fiscal thrust to pull back, and that's not something that 360 00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 1: president running for re election would want to have happened. 361 00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:56,680 Speaker 1: What makes you think it'll be two chillion. We're seeing 362 00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:59,960 Speaker 1: one trillion for the next round, and does strike me 363 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:01,840 Speaker 1: that there will have to be some kind of accommodation 364 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:06,320 Speaker 1: made in Congress? Yeah? Right now, the Senate GOP and 365 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 1: actually for several months been saying one trillion. President Trump 366 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 1: and some members of his administration have said two trillion, 367 00:22:14,400 --> 00:22:16,879 Speaker 1: but most recently Mike Pence and one of his ay 368 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,760 Speaker 1: implied that maybe he's on the one trillion side. And 369 00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:22,560 Speaker 1: then the Democrats haven't mentioned we're pushing for a three 370 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:25,440 Speaker 1: trillion dollar bills. So Trump's in the middle. But as 371 00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:27,920 Speaker 1: I say, he's got an election to fight, and he's 372 00:22:27,960 --> 00:22:30,600 Speaker 1: a big spinder anyway, He's been fiscally propligate, so I 373 00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:32,159 Speaker 1: think he'll end up on the big end of this 374 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:34,679 Speaker 1: h siding with the Democrats. And then I think that 375 00:22:34,840 --> 00:22:37,000 Speaker 1: the GOP senators are going to have to just get 376 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:39,679 Speaker 1: with the program because if they don't, they'll suffer if 377 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:43,360 Speaker 1: Trump suffers. So, Matt, We're we're getting closer and closer 378 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:47,280 Speaker 1: to that fall election, which strangely has been on the 379 00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:50,439 Speaker 1: back burner heres as everyone is focused on the pandemic. 380 00:22:50,760 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 1: What's kind of a thinking in your world as to 381 00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:59,680 Speaker 1: what perhaps a Biden presidency might mean. What are something 382 00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 1: you're takeaways that you're looking at right now? Yeah, Well, 383 00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 1: the big change that has happened is that the United 384 00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 1: States is doing this massive stimulus and so if if 385 00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,320 Speaker 1: I'm anywhere close to correct on that stimulus, we could 386 00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:15,160 Speaker 1: end up with something of six percent of global gop 387 00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:20,240 Speaker 1: GDP being US physical stimulus. We're looking at the US 388 00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:23,720 Speaker 1: maybe putting in twenty percent of its own GDP and stimulus. 389 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,000 Speaker 1: So that's a massive turn, and that's going to power 390 00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:29,080 Speaker 1: a cyclical rebound as we've seen in over the long run. 391 00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:31,480 Speaker 1: That should be the decisive factor kind of regardless of 392 00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:35,159 Speaker 1: who wins the election. But a Biden administration clearly is 393 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,960 Speaker 1: going to have a major regulatory shock, reversing the deregulation 394 00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:41,280 Speaker 1: that Trump did. And that's even if he doesn't win 395 00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,720 Speaker 1: the Senate. In truth, he's very likely to win the 396 00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,480 Speaker 1: Senate for the Democrats if he does win the White House, 397 00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:49,400 Speaker 1: and then in that case you could have I think 398 00:23:49,480 --> 00:23:52,440 Speaker 1: an extraordinary windfall of of of a shift to the 399 00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:56,719 Speaker 1: left in terms of healthcare, in terms of immigration, in 400 00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:59,760 Speaker 1: terms of even the tech sector facing a little bit 401 00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,720 Speaker 1: more scrutiny. And then of course you also have, uh, 402 00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 1: you have the cyclical reflationary impacts. They are spending more 403 00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 1: and giving more for people in wages and household uh spending, 404 00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:13,040 Speaker 1: but then you have this headwind for corporates that have 405 00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:15,879 Speaker 1: to worry more about taxes and regulations. The only clues 406 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:19,040 Speaker 1: we have us to the type of campaign that he's 407 00:24:19,080 --> 00:24:22,080 Speaker 1: he's you know, running, or the type of presidency that 408 00:24:22,119 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 1: he would he would lead, though Matt is the people 409 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:29,200 Speaker 1: that he's already appointed to a potential transition team. We're 410 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:34,120 Speaker 1: not really seeing a whole lot of economic messaging. Where 411 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 1: is your evidence to suggest that there will be a 412 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:39,920 Speaker 1: hard turn left? Yeah, Biden is a centrist and that's 413 00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:42,399 Speaker 1: how he won the nomination. He's a He's a sensor 414 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:47,679 Speaker 1: left establishment politician, no question about that. But remember that 415 00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:51,119 Speaker 1: the way that you try to predict the outlook for 416 00:24:51,280 --> 00:24:54,399 Speaker 1: things like this is not by wildly guessing based on 417 00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:57,560 Speaker 1: a president's preferences. I mean, President Trump had a preference 418 00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:00,679 Speaker 1: of a tear up on all Chinese and words, but 419 00:25:00,760 --> 00:25:04,439 Speaker 1: he didn't get that. The issue is that the winner 420 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:06,359 Speaker 1: of the White House is likely to bring the Senate 421 00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:09,119 Speaker 1: with them, and when the Senate goes Democratic and you 422 00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:12,560 Speaker 1: get a full blue sweep, which is certainly what looks 423 00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,399 Speaker 1: likely today if the election were held today, Well, in 424 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:19,160 Speaker 1: that environment, the constraint on the Democratic Party is removed, 425 00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:23,080 Speaker 1: Biden will be pressured by his party to take advantage 426 00:25:23,119 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 1: of a historic situation. And that's remember similar to when 427 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,720 Speaker 1: the Obama administration came in. But there's a lot of 428 00:25:29,720 --> 00:25:32,200 Speaker 1: frustration in the party that there was too much of 429 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:34,880 Speaker 1: an attempt to be bi partisan under the Obama administration, 430 00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:37,359 Speaker 1: so that this is a crisis that really can't go 431 00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,600 Speaker 1: to wait this time around. And I think that's how 432 00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:41,440 Speaker 1: the party is going to play things. So the filibuster, 433 00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:44,560 Speaker 1: for instance, very much at risk in the Senate. So, Matt, 434 00:25:44,600 --> 00:25:47,800 Speaker 1: given that these the Senates, the Republicans in the Senate 435 00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:51,240 Speaker 1: are at risk, here, are you surprised they haven't broken 436 00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:56,119 Speaker 1: ranks with President Trump? Well, I think in some ways 437 00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:58,320 Speaker 1: they have. I mean, I think in the news flow 438 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:00,360 Speaker 1: over the past several months, you've seen a lot more 439 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:02,320 Speaker 1: flaking off from the Senators than you had at any 440 00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,720 Speaker 1: previous time and Trump's administration. And that's because the administration 441 00:26:05,800 --> 00:26:09,480 Speaker 1: is just fundamentally weakened and embattled by a global pandemic 442 00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:13,399 Speaker 1: and a recession. Trump's handling of those issues. So I 443 00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:17,960 Speaker 1: do see some some wobbling within the Senate ranks. But also, 444 00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:21,240 Speaker 1: of course you're seeing the real divisions that always existed 445 00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:23,800 Speaker 1: between the establishment Republicans who might want to be more 446 00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:27,360 Speaker 1: physically hawkish, and President Trump, who's just a big spending 447 00:26:27,440 --> 00:26:31,280 Speaker 1: populist and wants, especially in this case, to make sure 448 00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:33,480 Speaker 1: that he gives the economy ajolt ahead of the election. 449 00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:36,320 Speaker 1: And that may even be behind that little difference between 450 00:26:36,600 --> 00:26:38,800 Speaker 1: you know, Trump implying that he wants to go even 451 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:42,720 Speaker 1: bigger than the Democrats on stimulus, while Mike Pence's office 452 00:26:42,800 --> 00:26:44,560 Speaker 1: is maybe implying he wants to be more where Mitch 453 00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 1: McConnell is at one trillion dollars. But what can we 454 00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,200 Speaker 1: expect to hear from Biden next? I mean, we haven't 455 00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:53,120 Speaker 1: heard all that much. I guess it's not a there's 456 00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:55,440 Speaker 1: not a whole lot of advantage to him being out 457 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:59,080 Speaker 1: there and uh, you know, making a lot of public statements. 458 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:03,560 Speaker 1: But when when Wally start well in August. You know, 459 00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:06,800 Speaker 1: we obviously the virus is throwing everyone for a loop 460 00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:08,960 Speaker 1: on timing. But in August you're supposed to have the 461 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,880 Speaker 1: party conventions, and the party convention is a time where 462 00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:14,760 Speaker 1: he will complete this process. We've seen in recent months 463 00:27:14,840 --> 00:27:17,240 Speaker 1: of him touching every base in the Democratic Party and 464 00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:21,760 Speaker 1: its constituency to show everyone in across the nation that 465 00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:25,159 Speaker 1: he's allied with the Progressive, that he's allied with the 466 00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:28,880 Speaker 1: different voting groups, um and and ultimately he's gonna want 467 00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:32,600 Speaker 1: President Barack Obama's backing and other top Democrats backing. So 468 00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:34,800 Speaker 1: I think he's gonna have to start getting out more 469 00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,879 Speaker 1: uh later in uh in August. But in the meantime, 470 00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:41,919 Speaker 1: he is perfectly happy to kind of hide away in 471 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:44,840 Speaker 1: his basement or wherever he is and let President Trump 472 00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 1: attract the attention with often his controversial or unorthodox statements 473 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:54,200 Speaker 1: and and take the heat. Well. Yes, indeed, Matt, thank 474 00:27:54,240 --> 00:27:56,520 Speaker 1: you so interesting to speak with you. And and indeed, 475 00:27:56,520 --> 00:28:00,200 Speaker 1: as he say, August, it seems quite late. It's I'm 476 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:01,879 Speaker 1: very close to an election. It must be one of 477 00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:03,760 Speaker 1: the few times that you really have only had a 478 00:28:03,800 --> 00:28:06,920 Speaker 1: competitor sort of emerge properly a couple of months before. 479 00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:08,840 Speaker 1: I mean there was there was a little time back 480 00:28:08,840 --> 00:28:11,040 Speaker 1: where he was. He was out there, but he was 481 00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:13,919 Speaker 1: pulled back in quite I think it's a strategy, just 482 00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:16,120 Speaker 1: I think it is. It's nothing but bad news out there. 483 00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:19,440 Speaker 1: Why getting that news cycle exactly? Matt Garkin is geopolitical 484 00:28:19,440 --> 00:28:22,520 Speaker 1: strategist to b c A Research. You joined us there 485 00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:27,639 Speaker 1: from Montreal in Canada. So that's that'll do it for 486 00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 1: this two hours of markets produced day tuned. We're following 487 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:33,560 Speaker 1: the markets throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio. Inducas 488 00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:36,480 Speaker 1: now of one of a quarter percent plus. In fact, 489 00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:41,600 Speaker 1: thanks for listening to Bloomberg Markets Podcast. You can subscribe 490 00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:45,160 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast 491 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:48,440 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Bonnie Quinn. I'm on Twitter at 492 00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:50,760 Speaker 1: Bonnie Quinn, and I'm Paul Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at 493 00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:53,680 Speaker 1: pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you can always catch us 494 00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:55,120 Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio