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Speaker 1: See Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: No One, but no One is offering you action Mike.

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Speaker 3: It's a gambling experience of life too.

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Speaker 2: It's by way of saying, I understand man, Mike.

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Speaker 3: I know what you want, I know what you need.

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Speaker 2: This is where you belong. What is up? Everybody?

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by Draft Kings.

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Speaker 4: I am your host, Chris Raybond, and today it is

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Speaker 4: our annual Oscars betting episode. I'm joined by fellow Oscar

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Speaker 4: betting expert dare I say, enthusiast co host of the

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Speaker 4: Payoff Pitch, as well uh, the very very knowledgeable Colin Witcharch.

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Speaker 4: You can find him on Twitter at Ceo Witchurch w

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Speaker 4: H I T C h U r c H Colin,

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Speaker 4: what's going on?

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Speaker 2: Thanks for joining me?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, happy to be here, Chris. We did this last year.

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Speaker 1: It was a little bit of a mixed bag. If

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Speaker 1: I recall last year the Oscars, there was a lot.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot more up in the air. I think

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Speaker 1: this year and of the major categories, I'm really excited

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Speaker 1: to dive back in. I follow you and I come

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Speaker 1: at this. I think from different angles. I start following

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Speaker 1: these odds and tracking these odds like six months ago.

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Speaker 1: You jump in kind of at the end. You've got

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Speaker 1: your model, you've got your your theory. Will people will

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Speaker 1: hear us talk a lot about gold Derby today, and

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Speaker 1: they're experts and editors. But I live and breathe film,

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Speaker 1: and so what better way to add on to my

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Speaker 1: film obsession than betting on the Oscars, which I've been

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Speaker 1: following insanely close for more than twenty years now.

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Speaker 3: So let's do it.

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Speaker 1: Let's let's get into twenty twenty six. I'm excited about it.

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Speaker 4: Okay, Yeah, so you got a good decade on me

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Speaker 4: because I started getting into it. I think it was

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Speaker 4: the year that your Moonlight one. I was like, I

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Speaker 4: think Moonlight's gonna win, but I wasn't betting. I didn't

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Speaker 4: even know you could bet the Oscars that year, and

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Speaker 4: then it won. I was like, holy shit, I could

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Speaker 4: have made money on this. And then every single year

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Speaker 4: since I've been betting, so it's been been about ten years.

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Speaker 4: But all right, let's get let's We're gonna start with

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Speaker 4: Best Picture. We're gonna go through the major categories, and

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Speaker 4: then we have a bunch of best bets if you

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Speaker 4: will on some of the you know, lesser categories where

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Speaker 4: usually there's more of an edge, although, as you mentioned, Colin,

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Speaker 4: this year, I do think even some of the main

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Speaker 4: categories are a little bit more up in the air

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Speaker 4: than in than in prior year. So I'm gonna start

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Speaker 4: us off with Best Picture, Colin. Just curious if you

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Speaker 4: had to give me like a preferential ballot top three

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Speaker 4: before we get into who you think is actually gonna

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Speaker 4: win and who you're betting on, just like you know,

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Speaker 4: like you're one, two three on preferential ballot, who would

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Speaker 4: they be for this year?

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Speaker 2: Uh?

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Speaker 1: Honestly, you know, I I'm very very comfortable being like

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Speaker 1: super contrarian when it comes to what my favorite films

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Speaker 1: of the year are. You know, I fancy myself something

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Speaker 1: of a film critic. I went to school forward all

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Speaker 1: that stuff. Uh, the Academy kind of nailed it this year.

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Speaker 1: One Battle after another is probably my my favorite film.

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Speaker 1: The best film of the year to me, in my opinion,

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Speaker 1: Sinners is right up there, and then those are the

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Speaker 1: two favorites, and right behind that Hamnet I would probably

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Speaker 1: put third. There are a couple others that I liked.

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Speaker 1: Nine of the ten nominees I would say are very

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Speaker 1: good movies.

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Speaker 2: I guess the one you didn't like. Let me try

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Speaker 2: to guess. Let me try to guess.

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Speaker 1: Actually eight of ten I would say, I like that

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Speaker 1: if if Frankenstein did not vibe with Frankenstein at all

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Speaker 1: this year, and that brolled my heart because I love

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Speaker 1: Germo del Toro. And then f one severely disappointing.

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Speaker 3: It's uh.

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Speaker 1: It was about the director of Top Gun Maverick. It

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Speaker 1: was the exact same story as Top Gun Maverick, but

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Speaker 1: lacked all the nostalgia that made Top Gun from the

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Speaker 1: first movie that made Top Gun Maverick so entertaining. Everything

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Speaker 1: else I enjoyed to varying degrees, but one battle Sinner's

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Speaker 1: Hamnet big fans of those that would be my top

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Speaker 1: three if I were a voter of some sort.

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Speaker 2: Okay, what about if you were better? What are we

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Speaker 2: doing here?

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Speaker 4: So, and just to for everyone listening out there, we

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Speaker 4: have prediction markets now too, so draftings. We have the

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Speaker 4: sports book and we have the prediction markets. The difference

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Speaker 4: with the prediction markets on draftings is for some of

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Speaker 4: these you could bet no as well. So that is

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Speaker 4: an important distinction. So not only can you bet unlike

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Speaker 4: the winner but you could bet if you just think

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Speaker 4: there's gonna be an upset, for example, you don't know

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Speaker 4: exactly who's gonna make the upset, you could bet know

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Speaker 4: in a lot of categories, which I love. Shouts the

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Speaker 4: DraftKings for doing that, because if you listen to me

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Speaker 4: doing an NFL podcast, you always know that. One of

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Speaker 4: my rights that's a touchdown market is that you can

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Speaker 4: never bet no in THEWS. It's like the Super Bowl

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Speaker 4: or something like that, and then you can bet no touchdowns.

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Speaker 4: So shouts the Draftings for having for a while on

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Speaker 4: us to bet no if you go to the DraftKings prediction.

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Speaker 4: And so some of these odds will be kind of

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Speaker 4: pingpoling back forth depending on where you can get the

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Speaker 4: better odds. But DK predictions should be available in more

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Speaker 4: places to whoever's listening, if you're able. So that that's

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Speaker 4: just one thing I wanted to point it out. But Colin,

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Speaker 4: what are we doing for best pictures?

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Speaker 2: Again? You mentioned it?

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Speaker 4: We have one battle after another as the favored around

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Speaker 4: minus four hundred at the sports book, and then sinners

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Speaker 4: is plus two seventy five a DK sportsbook that is

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Speaker 4: the you know, main kind of countender here everything else

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Speaker 4: is two hundred, you know, plus two thousand or longer.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, So, one Battle after Another has been the favorite

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Speaker 1: for almost the entirety of awards season. The one film

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Speaker 1: kind of late fall late twenty twenty five that seemed

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Speaker 1: like it was going to take it over might have

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Speaker 1: been Hamnet, But one Battle after another has been It

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Speaker 1: seemed it seemed like a foregone conclusion. We were we

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Speaker 1: were leading up to the culmination of One Battle after another.

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Speaker 1: Film of the years Paul Thomas Anderson as Director of

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Speaker 1: the Year. It's still very much expected to do so,

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Speaker 1: but just these last couple of weeks leading up to showtime,

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Speaker 1: there's been some momentum behind Sinners. It's just risen up

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Speaker 1: again over these last couple of weeks. Now one of

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Speaker 1: the major are of the major precursor award shows. The

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Speaker 1: best predictors of Best Picture success are the PGA, the

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Speaker 1: Producer Skilled Awards, and the DGA the Director's Skilled Awards.

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Speaker 1: The PGA's top prize has gone to seventeen the last

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Speaker 1: twenty five Best Picture winners. The DGA is sixteen for

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Speaker 1: the last twenty five that includes last year. In fact,

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Speaker 1: the only two major pre cursor awards to pick a

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Speaker 1: Nora before the Oscars last year were the PGA and

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Speaker 1: the DGA, so one Battle after another won the top

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Speaker 1: prize at both. This year, it also won the top

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Speaker 1: prize at the bat Does, and it won at the

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Speaker 1: Golden Globes. The Golden Globe separates its best pictures into

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Speaker 1: two different categories. One Battle after another was in a

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Speaker 1: category separate from Sinners and Hamnet. One Battle after another

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Speaker 1: won its category, and actually Hamnet beat out Sinners that

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Speaker 1: night in their Best Picture category. Now, the Golden Globes

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Speaker 1: are not a huge precursor. I didn't put a lot

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Speaker 1: of stock into that. The only precursor, though, award that

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Speaker 1: Sinners won was the most recent one two weeks ago

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Speaker 1: at the Screen Actors Skilled Awards, now called the Actor Awards,

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Speaker 1: and there's precedent there far between. Though since two thousand

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Speaker 1: there have been three instances where Best Picture winners only

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Speaker 1: precursor one came from the SAG twenty nineteen when it

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Speaker 1: was Parasite, twenty fifteen when it was Spotlight, and two

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Speaker 1: thousand and five when it was Crash. Now, even if

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Speaker 1: you were taking the math of those last twenty five

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Speaker 1: years at face value, which you absolutely should not do

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Speaker 1: that says that Sinners wins Best Picture about thirteen percent

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Speaker 1: of the time, making the twenty three to twenty six

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Speaker 1: percent range the market is implying terrible value. The experts

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Speaker 1: and editors at gold Derby are buying into the hype two, however,

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Speaker 1: and they have a fairly strong track record, as you'll

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Speaker 1: talk about. I know, Chris, as of this writing or

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, as of last night when I was writing

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Speaker 1: these notes, twenty percent of them were picking Sinners to

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Speaker 1: win Best Picture. So all of this is to say,

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Speaker 1: I still expect one battle after another to win Best

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Speaker 1: Picture on Sunday, but there's enough smoke around Sinners to

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Speaker 1: keep an eye on the number. I have a position

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Speaker 1: on Sinners from a few weeks ago at plus four

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Speaker 1: hundred that I'm sitting on. If you can get plus

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Speaker 1: four hundred or better on Sinners, I would bet it.

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Speaker 1: I think that there's enough value there now. Sinners, as

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Speaker 1: we know, set the record this year for most nominations

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Speaker 1: ever at the Askers it has sixteen. We're gonna find

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Speaker 1: out really early in the night if this is just

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Speaker 1: the night that all of the voters decided Sinners is

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Speaker 1: the film of the year Sinners. They're going to give

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Speaker 1: everything to Sinners. That's what happened at the screen Actors guilled.

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Speaker 1: The Academy might take the same position. We're going to

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Speaker 1: learn it really early in the night with some of

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Speaker 1: these earlier categories. If Sinners is the film of the moment,

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Speaker 1: if you will, and if that's the case, it might

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Speaker 1: ride that momentum right to Best Picture. As it stands,

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Speaker 1: I still expect one battle after another to win, but

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Speaker 1: keep an eye on those odds plus four hundred or better.

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Speaker 1: I think Sinners is live enough that it might be

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Speaker 1: worth a poke.

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Speaker 4: As he talked about all Air, I've watched all of

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Speaker 4: the Best Picture nominations except Secret Agent, so you'll have

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Speaker 4: something on that in terms of the international category in

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Speaker 4: a bit, but have watched all the others. My opinion

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Speaker 4: of Sinners is this what people are calling momentum, I

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Speaker 4: call a recency bias. What uh you know like this

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Speaker 4: is this was like one of the worst Best Picture

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Speaker 4: of noms in my.

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Speaker 2: Opinion, Singers was not good.

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Speaker 3: Wow.

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Speaker 4: What Sinners is is the film everyone saw and that's

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Speaker 4: why it's that's why it's so What everyone's saying to

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Speaker 4: me is momentum it's it's this, it's that, it's recency biased,

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Speaker 4: and it's it's it's you know, familiarity, right, because it

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Speaker 4: was it was high grossing, it was cool.

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Speaker 2: But I think it's actually a pretty strong year. Like

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Speaker 2: I would, I would.

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Speaker 4: I enjoyed Bougonia more than Sinners. I enjoyed the train

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Speaker 4: movie what is it called Trainers?

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Speaker 2: I enjoyed that one more than Centers. Now one's dialogue

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Speaker 2: was comically, let's get that out of the way. But

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Speaker 2: what I like sat back.

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Speaker 4: And like, I just never found myself invested in Sinners

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Speaker 4: like I thought, And I thought it was like two movies.

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Speaker 4: Like I thought, I liked where it was going, and

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Speaker 4: I thought the second half of it was like when

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Speaker 4: Jordan Peele goes wrong. Like it was like it was

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Speaker 4: like Ryan Cooper decided he wanted to make one of

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Speaker 4: those kind of movies instead of just like kind of

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Speaker 4: doing like a period piece and just like you know

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Speaker 4: what I mean. So it kind of delved into like

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Speaker 4: when I don't think he did the Supernatural as well

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Speaker 4: as some other directors made and I wanted to I

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Speaker 4: want because I was looking at it too, I'm like Sinners,

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Speaker 4: it's it's it's the underdog and Best Picture, it's kind

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Speaker 4: of the underdog, and a few a bunch of other

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Speaker 4: categories that like, it could just be Sinners night. But

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Speaker 4: I'm actually more convinced now that Sinners could could set

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Speaker 4: the record her losses.

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Speaker 3: I mean, when you're nominated that many times.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

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Speaker 4: But I actually do like Sinners in a few categories,

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Speaker 4: but not this, Like I think, if like this is

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Speaker 4: the only bet you can make, it's Sinners, Like if

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Speaker 4: you know, unless you're I mean, I don't know how

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Speaker 4: much books are letting you get down, but if you

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Speaker 4: can get enough down on one battle, I think it's

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Speaker 4: you know, it's that's that's the pick. But if you're

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Speaker 4: looking for an underdog bet, I think the only bet

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Speaker 4: is sinners enjoy Marty.

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Speaker 2: Supreme more than sinners.

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Speaker 4: By the way, uh no, uh so yeah, that's how

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Speaker 4: my view. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna bet sinners,

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Speaker 4: I think, but I think that's the bet. If you're

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Speaker 4: looking for if you want to be cheering, you know,

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Speaker 4: for something you want to have some action on it,

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Speaker 4: I think you bet no to uh you bet no

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Speaker 4: to one battle and and you bet yes on Sinners

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Speaker 4: and you pray because it's not it's not impossible, I mean,

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Speaker 4: and especially because we'll talk about director next, Paul Thomas

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Speaker 4: Anderson of One Battle is like the queer front Runner,

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Speaker 4: and some lately we've seen.

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Speaker 2: A little more a few more splits, right, Like sometimes.

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Speaker 4: They're like, all right, well he's gonna get recognized there,

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Speaker 4: so we'll recognize this movie here, and it's it's kind

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Speaker 4: of split up, so that that that would be the angle, right,

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Speaker 4: Like that would kind of be how Sinners gets there,

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Speaker 4: you would think.

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Speaker 1: Right, yeah, definitely, I'm interested in your recency bias because

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Speaker 1: I do think that there is some, uh, there's there's

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Speaker 1: some validity to that, particularly with the uh the Acting

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Speaker 1: Awards being the last movie cursor, right Yeah. However, Sinners

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Speaker 1: is the only Best Picture film F one two, I guess.

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Speaker 1: But if one's not winning Best Picture, it's the only

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Speaker 1: one that didn't that wasn't released in Oscar campaign season.

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Speaker 1: You know, this movie came out ten months ago. Generally

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Speaker 1: Best Picture nominees, best Best Picture contenders come in at

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Speaker 1: the come out at the very very end of twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five. Because they want studios want the recency bias.

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Speaker 1: They want a movie that's fresh in people's minds. Sinners

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Speaker 1: came out so long ago. There's not a super long

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Speaker 1: track record of films winning Best Picture that are released

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Speaker 1: early in the year. I know, Crash, did I think

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Speaker 1: Parasite or everything everywhere all at once might have. I

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Speaker 1: don't have a list off the time.

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Speaker 2: It was a great movie.

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Speaker 4: Like, there's not a track record of movies as bad

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Speaker 4: as Sinners winning Best pictures.

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Speaker 1: I wanted to like it, bro, Like I think if

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Speaker 1: you think Sinners is if you think Sinners is as

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Speaker 1: bad as you say it is, which, first of all,

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Speaker 1: you're insane.

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Speaker 3: Uh, Crash is your is your parallel and Crash.

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Speaker 2: Crash is one of my favorite movies of all time.

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Speaker 4: Bro. Nope, not even doing it. I just I just

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Speaker 4: don't get the hype for Sinners like it was. I

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Speaker 4: love the message behind it. Let me not say that

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Speaker 4: I love the message behind it. But like I thought

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Speaker 4: we were passed. We're twenty twenty six. Now it's not

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty anymore, Like we're I thought we were past,

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Speaker 4: like the fake virtue signally like oh Oscar's not black enough?

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Speaker 4: This that like it's like yo, like I'm as a

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Speaker 4: black person, I don't. I didn't like Sinners. I thought

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Speaker 4: it could have been so much better. And I was

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Speaker 4: a guy who I had a big bet on Black

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Speaker 4: Panther to win Best Picture, and you know they never

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Speaker 4: give Best Picture of like those kind of movies.

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Speaker 2: And I love that that movie.

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Speaker 4: Uh, I just I don't know, Like Sinners to me

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Speaker 4: did not It did not do it for me. It

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Speaker 4: seemed like two separate movies. Michael B. Jordan thing was

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Speaker 4: was great, but like like the actual two characters, like

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Speaker 4: they weren't even as different as like I would have

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Speaker 4: wanted for Michael Jordan, Michael B. Jordan to be getting

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Speaker 4: the hype he's getting, like he was kind of just

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Speaker 4: acting like two of the same slightly different dude in

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Speaker 4: my opinion, like I. And then it was like one

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Speaker 4: half of the movie was like a period piece and

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Speaker 4: the second half was just like okay, it wanted to

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Speaker 4: be a whole different movie. And then it was like

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Speaker 4: this like which I hate these random breaks into song,

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Speaker 4: like absolutely, like you gotta really be good at what

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Speaker 4: you're doing to get away with one of those.

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Speaker 2: And I thought it. I just thought it was corny,

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Speaker 2: let me put it that way.

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Speaker 4: I thought Senters was corny is I thought it was corny.

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Speaker 1: The interesting thing, the interesting thing there for me is

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Speaker 1: and I do look at the narratives a lot like

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Speaker 1: we look at the math here, right, we are the

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Speaker 1: Action Network, but from a film perspective, you gotta look

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Speaker 1: at narratives a little bit. And another interesting thing about

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Speaker 1: betting on the Oscars is that there's clv Isn't is

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Speaker 1: a myth right? Because we don't know who gets second place?

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Speaker 5: Here?

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Speaker 1: I would love, I would love. I've been begging for

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Speaker 1: years for the accounting firm that runs the Academy or

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Speaker 1: the Academy to release ballot totals after.

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Speaker 3: The Yeah, wouldn't it be great?

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Speaker 1: Wouldn't it be great to know who finishes in second

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Speaker 1: place and how close they came? But we don't get that.

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Speaker 1: So if you lose your bet if if you lose,

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Speaker 1: you just lose. There's no almost in Oscar voting. But

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Speaker 1: the one thing so that all comes down to the

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Speaker 1: narrative aspect of it is interesting And we'll get into

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Speaker 1: this a little bit with Best Actor as well with

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Speaker 1: Timothy Shalamy. Is you mentioned the politics behind it to

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Speaker 1: a certain extent, and that has kind of fueled its

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Speaker 1: charge not because of what Sinners is saying, but because

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Speaker 1: of what one battle after another being more contentious and

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Speaker 1: not necessary, and it's more contentious in the fact that

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Speaker 1: everything that's going on in the world right now, and

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Speaker 1: Paul Thomas Anderson made this very divisive film that seems

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Speaker 1: very apt for this time in our history. But he's

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Speaker 1: every time in this entire circuit leading up to the

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Speaker 1: Oscars he's been asked about it, he's just kind of said,

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to speak on that. I let my

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Speaker 1: film do my speaking for me. Now, there's been blowback

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Speaker 1: to that, and I don't think that's fair. Let me

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Speaker 1: be very clear. I don't think it's fair that there's

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Speaker 1: been blowback to him. Like he's making art and there's

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Speaker 1: a difference between art and commentary sometimes to some people.

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Speaker 1: But there has been a little bit of within the industry,

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Speaker 1: like blowback to one battle after another and the folks

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Speaker 1: who made it and and kind of what the actual

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Speaker 1: message is. And you know, in a lot of respects

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Speaker 1: art and society and politics, they they're inseparable to some people,

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Speaker 1: and that's going to matter in the voting. So that's

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Speaker 1: one of the reasons that Sinners has kind of caught

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Speaker 1: up to one battle after another as close as it

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Speaker 1: has now Again, we're talking about like a seventy five

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Speaker 1: percent to twenty five percent gapper, an eighty to twenty

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Speaker 1: gap it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, those are seventy seven to twenty.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but if this were a horse race, you know,

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Speaker 1: we're looking at a month ago, two months ago, one

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Speaker 1: battle after another had a ten body lengthy. Now it's

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Speaker 1: a three body lengthy because it's been the gap has

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Speaker 1: been shrinking. So I will not be surprised if Sinners

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Speaker 1: wins on Sunday. It will be enough that there are

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Speaker 1: not very often upsets in Best Picture. It will be

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Speaker 1: an upset if I'm filling out a ballot. If I'm

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Speaker 1: in a pool and I'm just need to pick who

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Speaker 1: wins Best Picture, I'm picking one battle after another. But again,

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Speaker 1: if you look at the odds board, you see Sinners

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Speaker 1: again around plus four hundred. That's my bet.

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Speaker 4: Well, to hear something so interesting, tidbit, and we'll move

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Speaker 4: on because we've got we spent a lot of time

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Speaker 4: on that.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, you mentioned the upsets.

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Speaker 4: Five straight years from twenty fifteen to twenty twenty, there

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Speaker 4: was an upset every single year in the Best Picture

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Speaker 4: the last four last five no upsets, so it's been

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Speaker 4: it's been like five straight uh dumb like front Runners

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Speaker 4: one and then before that with five straight upsets.

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Speaker 2: So we could be due. We could be due.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, uh yeah, I think I think that the

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Speaker 4: SAG given it the recency bias is like I can't

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Speaker 4: I'm not one hundred percent showing this, but I would

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Speaker 4: venture to guess that the actors are the youngest branch

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Speaker 4: of like Oscar voters, like, because they're actors in there,

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Speaker 4: whereas like producers and all those other people are generally more.

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Speaker 3: Branch though yeah you know, yeah absolutely, but.

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Speaker 4: Like when you talk about politics and all that stuff,

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Speaker 4: it's like that that those awards are more likely to

387
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Speaker 4: just like kind of the gloves in a ways because

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Speaker 4: it's so small and so focused on like one specific

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Speaker 4: place like those two. I think you see more of

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Speaker 4: those kind of like politicy uh situations. But there's also

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Speaker 4: just gonna be a lot of people just watched and

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Speaker 4: there was like like this was like the sixth best film, like,

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Speaker 4: so I I think I think it could very well

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Speaker 4: finish second.

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Speaker 2: I would be surprised about finished first.

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Speaker 4: But I do think that's the only bet you can make,

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Speaker 4: like if you're not if you're betting against one battle,

398
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Speaker 4: it's it's I think it's it is.

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Speaker 2: A two film race.

400
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Speaker 4: Director Paul Thomas Anderson. He is minus the house essentially

401
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Speaker 4: to win. Here, any thoughts there, I mean, the only

402
00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:15,359
Speaker 4: thing you could do is on predictions. You could bet

403
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Speaker 4: no at plus nine hundred, I guess. But that's not enough, right,

404
00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:21,080
Speaker 4: he's minus twenty five hundred on the sports.

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Speaker 1: But to win, Yeah, it's not enough for me. I

406
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Speaker 1: think that regardless of what happens in Best Picture, this

407
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Speaker 1: is PTA's crowning moment. You see the Academy do this

408
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Speaker 1: with directors from time to time, most notably with Martin

409
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Speaker 1: Scorsese back in the day where twenty years ago he

410
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Speaker 1: was this up and coming kid, you know, when he

411
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Speaker 1: was nominated for Best Director for There Will Be Blood

412
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Speaker 1: whilst out to the Coen Brothers and it's like, well, now,

413
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Speaker 1: you know, this film's really impressive, but it's not your time.

414
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Speaker 1: And now we're at twenty years later and they're saying, Wow,

415
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Speaker 1: this guy's up there. He's an aging veteran now and

416
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Speaker 1: we still haven't given him an oscar yet. It's his year.

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Speaker 1: Ryan Coogler love you to death. You're a lot younger.

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Speaker 1: Your time will probably in the future. But everything, every

419
00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:06,280
Speaker 1: precursor points to Pta. The odds point to PTA. Don't

420
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Speaker 1: need to spend a ton of time here. I think

421
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Speaker 1: that he's gonna get his big moment on Sunday Night.

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Speaker 2: Best Actor. I'm going Timothy shallow May all the way here.

423
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Speaker 2: He's you get. You could get him at plus juice.

424
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Speaker 2: Now now, I do think Michael B.

425
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Speaker 4: Jordan was a great bet up until like last well

426
00:20:23,040 --> 00:20:26,240
Speaker 4: up until the sag essentially when now he has overtaken

427
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Speaker 4: Timothy for the Weed, I still think Timothy was better.

428
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Speaker 4: I think I think it is extremely difficult to play

429
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Speaker 4: two characters the way NBJ did. I think he was

430
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Speaker 4: great at what he did, But just watching the movie,

431
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Speaker 4: I thought Timothy, I mean that was the most realistic,

432
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Speaker 4: like fleeting, like I've never seen such realistic tweeting in

433
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Speaker 4: a movie so many.

434
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Speaker 2: Times as I do. With Timmy.

435
00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:52,240
Speaker 4: He was an annoying character, so I think he might

436
00:20:52,240 --> 00:20:53,640
Speaker 4: be getting some hate for that, but that's that would

437
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:54,919
Speaker 4: be my pick. He could get him at plus one

438
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:58,000
Speaker 4: seventy eight in DK predictions plus one eighty five on

439
00:20:58,040 --> 00:20:59,880
Speaker 4: the sportsbooks. You get a couple extra sense of juice

440
00:20:59,880 --> 00:21:02,160
Speaker 4: if go to the sportsbook, and you.

441
00:21:02,080 --> 00:21:02,960
Speaker 2: Can also bet Michael B.

442
00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:06,000
Speaker 4: Jordan No at plus one thirty eight, which actually does

443
00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:07,920
Speaker 4: show a little bit of value according to gold Derby

444
00:21:07,920 --> 00:21:09,680
Speaker 4: as well, because they have him about fifty to fifty

445
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:12,600
Speaker 4: shot there. But I know you kind of have some

446
00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:14,960
Speaker 4: thoughts on this because you think it's like, what like

447
00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,120
Speaker 4: a three, four, maybe even five may race here.

448
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:19,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's a three man race. We'll talk

449
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 1: a little bit about the history things. This has been

450
00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:24,359
Speaker 1: a crazy flip and it could be recency bias. Like

451
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:26,920
Speaker 1: you said, Chris, when Michael B. Jordan wanted the actual

452
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 1: awards two weeks ago, I was shocked. I was so

453
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:32,080
Speaker 1: sure that Timmy was winning that award. He would have

454
00:21:32,119 --> 00:21:34,359
Speaker 1: solidified himself as the favorite for Best Actor.

455
00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:35,040
Speaker 3: We'd go there.

456
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:38,440
Speaker 1: But the odds have flipped significantly since then to the

457
00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:40,720
Speaker 1: point where Michael B. Jordan is now the favorite. You

458
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:44,639
Speaker 1: might recall a year ago, young star Timothy Shallow May

459
00:21:44,680 --> 00:21:47,840
Speaker 1: seemed headed for his first Best Actor prize for his role.

460
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:50,760
Speaker 1: It didn't happen. He was locked in a tight race

461
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 1: with Adrian Brody. Brody emerged victorious and shallow May who

462
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 1: seems to really, really really care about these kind of things,

463
00:21:57,320 --> 00:22:01,160
Speaker 1: had to wait another year. Early on in the awards season,

464
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:05,159
Speaker 1: it seemed like his challenger was going to be Leonardo Dicapriot,

465
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,959
Speaker 1: who is great to yeah, but buzz for his performance

466
00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:11,080
Speaker 1: kind of faded. A lot of the love for one

467
00:22:11,119 --> 00:22:13,919
Speaker 1: Battle after another acting performances went to other roles in

468
00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:18,080
Speaker 1: that film. Shalamy peaked around minus three point fifty in

469
00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 1: the market for Best Actor in January. He won several precursors,

470
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:26,440
Speaker 1: but things changed at the baft Does. Notably, the BAFTAs

471
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 1: and the sag are the two best precursors for the

472
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:33,880
Speaker 1: acting categories, and at the baft Does, shockingly, that went

473
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:36,359
Speaker 1: to neither of these guys, and it went to a

474
00:22:36,400 --> 00:22:37,840
Speaker 1: guy who's not nominated.

475
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:38,159
Speaker 3: Tonight.

476
00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:42,880
Speaker 1: It went to Robert Amareo for the movie about Tourette

477
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 1: syndrome that I am sure.

478
00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:46,879
Speaker 3: Cause a little bit of.

479
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:50,800
Speaker 1: But the baf does, you know, the baft Does like

480
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,080
Speaker 1: to award their own. They like to award the British folks.

481
00:22:53,080 --> 00:22:56,400
Speaker 1: When given an opportunity. They awarded a British guy over

482
00:22:56,480 --> 00:23:00,560
Speaker 1: Timmy over Michael B. Jordan, not a huge data point overall,

483
00:23:01,040 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 1: and then.

484
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 2: Oscars like were their own, so Timmy would win.

485
00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:13,440
Speaker 1: Yes, And that's honestly, you're right, because Timmy is Timmy.

486
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 1: Timmy is in one respect like the male Emma Stone,

487
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 1: like he's a darling, he's a theater kid. They love

488
00:23:21,080 --> 00:23:21,920
Speaker 1: those guys.

489
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:24,159
Speaker 3: So Michael B.

490
00:23:24,280 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 1: Jordan won at the Actor Awards. Sinners also won Best

491
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:32,800
Speaker 1: Ensemble Cast, the top prize at the SAG and I thought,

492
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 1: maybe we'd get close to fifty to fifty, maybe it'd

493
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:38,920
Speaker 1: be sixty forty Timmy, after that, Challamy just can't shut

494
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:43,320
Speaker 1: up sometimes though after that Shallamy, you may have read this, Chris,

495
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 1: maybe this news to you. He appeared at a CNN

496
00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:48,960
Speaker 1: and Variety town hall event in late February. He had

497
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:53,280
Speaker 1: a conversation with Matthew McConaughey that where he said he

498
00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:55,879
Speaker 1: didn't want movie theaters to go away, to go the

499
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 1: way of ballet or opera, where artists want to keep

500
00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 1: this thing alive even though no no one cares about

501
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:04,000
Speaker 1: it anymore. And boy did that piss people off. He

502
00:24:04,119 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 1: disrespected the ballet and opera community. There was insane blowback.

503
00:24:08,280 --> 00:24:10,160
Speaker 1: I'm not going to get into my personal opinions about

504
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 1: it because I don't. I honestly am the last person

505
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:14,520
Speaker 1: in the world who gives a shit what celebrities say

506
00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 1: on things, just their personal opinions on things. So I

507
00:24:18,359 --> 00:24:23,560
Speaker 1: didn't care, but people cared. And this happened about a

508
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:27,280
Speaker 1: week before balloting ended for Best Actor. So now here

509
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:30,719
Speaker 1: we are, Jordan's the favorite minus one seventy minus two

510
00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 1: hundred range Shallo mas plus one seventy to two twenty range.

511
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:38,880
Speaker 1: And what's extra interesting here is that while the experts

512
00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:42,479
Speaker 1: and editors at gold Derby agree with Jordan flipping with Shalome,

513
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:46,239
Speaker 1: Jordan's still overvalued here. He's only picked around fifty two

514
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:48,440
Speaker 1: percent of the time, but that's because of the presence

515
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,679
Speaker 1: of Wagner Mora for the Secret Agent.

516
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 3: Now.

517
00:24:52,960 --> 00:24:55,399
Speaker 1: We see this every year in the acting categories, where

518
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,880
Speaker 1: a acting performance from a non English language film kind

519
00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 1: of sneaks up and everyone goes, Oh, they're the sleeper,

520
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,919
Speaker 1: they're the stealthy, they're live. We saw it with Sondra

521
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,040
Speaker 1: Hueler two years ago. We saw it with Fernando Torres

522
00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 1: last year. Ends up going for nought, they end up

523
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,119
Speaker 1: losing again. Like I said earlier, we don't know how

524
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,639
Speaker 1: much they lost by, So did you really get some

525
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:18,719
Speaker 1: CLV there? But more than ten percent at gold Derby

526
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 1: have more winning this and more has had momentum all

527
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:24,800
Speaker 1: awards season long. So how do we bet this? Do

528
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:26,639
Speaker 1: we factor in Mora? Do we ignore it? Do we

529
00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:28,719
Speaker 1: say he's going to go the way of Torres and Heuler?

530
00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:31,879
Speaker 1: Or is here real player here as well? Now I

531
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 1: have early positions on both Jordan at about plus one

532
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 1: thirty and Mora at plus nineteen hundred, and I'm going

533
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,240
Speaker 1: to ride those out to showtime. My hunch is that

534
00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:44,119
Speaker 1: Shalla May still has a better chance of winning than

535
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 1: his odds imply, but I'd probably need like plus two

536
00:25:47,119 --> 00:25:50,280
Speaker 1: hundred to show value there. If you can get Michael B.

537
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:52,439
Speaker 1: Jordan at plus money, i'd bet him. If you can

538
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 1: get Wagner Mora at like plus thirteen fifty plus fourteen hundred,

539
00:25:57,520 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 1: I'd bet him there. As it stands, all of these

540
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:03,480
Speaker 1: odds as we're recording, I believe are out of range.

541
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 1: But there's numerous ways to bet depending on where the

542
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:08,720
Speaker 1: odds go in the next couple of days between shallow May, Jordan,

543
00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 1: and Mora.

544
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 4: Anything plus money for me for shoot, I just think

545
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 4: he's he was the clear favorite, and then the Turetts

546
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:19,159
Speaker 4: thing happened, and then the sag happened, and now it's like,

547
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 4: oh it's Michael. Like I think they, I think the

548
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:23,959
Speaker 4: experts and the odds and the people betting everyone kind

549
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,239
Speaker 4: of flipped. But it's all just a reflection of the

550
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:29,199
Speaker 4: market like and not the true acting performance, which is

551
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:29,960
Speaker 4: what they're voting on.

552
00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:34,120
Speaker 2: So it's like we did this before. They told they

553
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:34,560
Speaker 2: told us.

554
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 4: Uh, somebody who's gonna win for politic reasons, and then

555
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 4: they were like, hah.

556
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:40,359
Speaker 2: Best winner, Anthony Hopkins.

557
00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 4: Okay, bye, Like remember remember the Chadwick Boseman, same kind

558
00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:43,720
Speaker 4: of movie too.

559
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:48,440
Speaker 1: I forget that I had money out of Anthony Hopkins

560
00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:48,800
Speaker 1: that night.

561
00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 4: There there you go, Like Timmy is that, Like Timmy

562
00:26:52,680 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 4: was better, and like Micah was great. It's it's close.

563
00:26:56,680 --> 00:26:58,879
Speaker 4: Timmy was better. Now you can get him at plus money.

564
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 4: I agree with you, And like I think Mike was

565
00:27:01,840 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 4: either one of them at plus money. I think makes sense.

566
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 4: I think it is a close call, but I think

567
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,640
Speaker 4: Timmy was better. I think Timmy is getting knocked down

568
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:14,119
Speaker 4: kind of. It's it's artificial, it's it's it's politics. But

569
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 4: at the end of the day, there's still a lot

570
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:20,159
Speaker 4: of non pop political Academy Award voters.

571
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:24,560
Speaker 1: I would say that very very well, very well, maybe

572
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 1: where you're at and I have no I love Again

573
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:30,679
Speaker 1: as a film just a film enjoyer, and as an

574
00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:34,320
Speaker 1: Oscar lover. I love that there are three that I

575
00:27:34,320 --> 00:27:36,520
Speaker 1: don't know who's gonna win Best Actor going into the race.

576
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 1: I'm hoping this leads to us being able to catch

577
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:43,080
Speaker 1: some tickets on Sunday night. But uh, the intrigue is

578
00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:44,120
Speaker 1: is really exciting.

579
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:48,480
Speaker 4: Speaking of intrigue, Best Actress, you mentioned Emma Stone, the

580
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:51,400
Speaker 4: best actress alive in my opinion, who is a long

581
00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 4: shot to win the Best Actress because Jesse Buckley was

582
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,000
Speaker 4: just amazing, So we can't. I want to bet m

583
00:27:57,040 --> 00:27:58,679
Speaker 4: A Stone, but she wasn't as good as Jesse Buffy

584
00:27:59,160 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 4: in this.

585
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 2: In now like this one.

586
00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:05,400
Speaker 1: This is the one acting category that is chalky, where

587
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:09,879
Speaker 1: there's no intrigue. Jesse Buckley is winning Best Actress. She

588
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,320
Speaker 1: is I don't even have the odds in front of

589
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:14,040
Speaker 1: me where she's at.

590
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 4: She is MIAs twenty five hundred. Then you have rose

591
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:19,880
Speaker 4: byrn at twelve to one. Kate Hudson at twenty five

592
00:28:19,920 --> 00:28:22,880
Speaker 4: to one, m Stone at twenty five to one, and Renata.

593
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:25,760
Speaker 2: I don't even know how to say her last day,

594
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 2: Raine Today.

595
00:28:28,160 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 1: You want me to get super like nerdy independent film dork.

596
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:36,400
Speaker 1: Raynatreensville is the best actress on the planet right now.

597
00:28:37,800 --> 00:28:38,560
Speaker 2: She was really good.

598
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:41,280
Speaker 4: I honestly thought she would be when I saw the

599
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 4: I knew Buckley was the favorite, but before I saw

600
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:46,400
Speaker 4: the you know, odds board, I was assuming that she

601
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:48,120
Speaker 4: was going to be the contender.

602
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 1: Check check out for you and for all the listeners.

603
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:54,240
Speaker 1: Check out the worst person in the world. I love

604
00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:58,480
Speaker 1: them Jokum Treers previous film with her starring as well,

605
00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:02,840
Speaker 1: and it's probably the best acting forms I've seen this century. Anyway,

606
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:06,080
Speaker 1: our producer's rolling as I so hard right now, we like,

607
00:29:06,120 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 1: will you guys get back on time? All right, all right,

608
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 1: we get out of here. We got the ultimate thing.

609
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 1: I'll say, the only thing I'll say about best actresses.

610
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 1: There was a time where it seemed like Roseburn was

611
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 1: gonna give Jesse Buckley a run for money. And Roseburn

612
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 1: is phenomenal. And if I had legs, I'd kick you,

613
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 1: which is one of the just darkest bleakest movies I've

614
00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 1: ever seen. I never wanted it was good. I never

615
00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 1: want to watch it again in my entire life. Buckley

616
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:33,040
Speaker 1: has just run rough shed over everyone all awards season long.

617
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 1: She's winning this pretty easily. On Sunday night, Yeah.

618
00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 4: At a Google Rose byrn So supporting actor sog Pen

619
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:49,280
Speaker 4: Scars Guard, those seem to be the two that are

620
00:29:49,760 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 4: getting the most love.

621
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 2: We got Penn at minus.

622
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 4: Three fifty at DK sportsbook, Scars Guard is four to one.

623
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 4: Galleroy Lindo's at six to one, and you have a

624
00:29:58,200 --> 00:30:00,920
Speaker 4: Benisio del Toro for one Bad at twenty to one,

625
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 4: and one with Jacob Alordi Frankenstein twenty five to one.

626
00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:07,440
Speaker 4: What do you think here? There's some chance for an

627
00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 4: ups there here.

628
00:30:08,000 --> 00:30:11,280
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, this is one where I'm kicking myself. I

629
00:30:11,280 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 1: want to give a shout out to our colleague Michael

630
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:17,000
Speaker 1: Cross and normally does some TV TV betting force, our

631
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:20,280
Speaker 1: NBA editor. He was calling Penn to me months ago.

632
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,920
Speaker 1: I thought Penn was locked when I saw this movie,

633
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:26,840
Speaker 1: you know, five six months ago. But the odds and

634
00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:30,040
Speaker 1: the precursors, the really early precursors weren't really lining up

635
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:33,560
Speaker 1: and Ecio was getting more love for that film, and

636
00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:35,440
Speaker 1: I didn't get it, and so I didn't bet it.

637
00:30:36,040 --> 00:30:39,960
Speaker 1: And then this seemed like even on nomination day, it

638
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 1: was like, oh, well, any of these five could win

639
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 1: this award. Who knows who's gonna come out on top.

640
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 1: And then the BAFT just came out and Sean Penn wan,

641
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 1: and then the Actor Awards came out in Sean penn

642
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 1: one and it's like, okay, well it's Sean penn One.

643
00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 1: Quick aside is that one of the things I think

644
00:30:54,680 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 1: is exciting about.

645
00:30:55,400 --> 00:30:58,280
Speaker 3: This year's Actor or this year's Oscars.

646
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:02,080
Speaker 1: Is that even if Penn doesn't win this and Benethio

647
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 1: del Toro doesn't win it, which I don't think he's

648
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 1: going to, we could have four first time acting Oscar

649
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 1: winners this year. Because whether it's Michael B. Jordan or

650
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 1: Timothy Shallow may their first time winner. Jesse Buckley is

651
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 1: a first time winner. We'll get to Supporting Actress here

652
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 1: in a second. Sean Penn, of course, has won two Oscars.

653
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 1: He won Best Actor in two thousand and four for

654
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 1: Mystic River in two thousand and nine for Milt. Benicio

655
00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 1: del Toro I mentioned one Best supporting actor all the

656
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:29,120
Speaker 1: way back in two thousand and one for Traffic. He's

657
00:31:29,160 --> 00:31:32,240
Speaker 1: a long shot at this point. Shockingly, not only has

658
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 1: the seventy four year old Stellan Scars Guard never won one,

659
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 1: but this is his first nomination of an otherwise very

660
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:42,480
Speaker 1: illustrious career. He's been a character actor for most of

661
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:46,280
Speaker 1: his career, though, and it sure seems like it's either

662
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:49,480
Speaker 1: gonna be Penner Scars Guard. Here Delroy Lindo's Lurking is

663
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 1: like a super dark horse. If again Sinners over performs

664
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 1: to an absurd degree, I think we could see some

665
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 1: Window love. But a nomination day, it was a surprise

666
00:31:57,720 --> 00:31:59,800
Speaker 1: to many that he even got picked as a nominee.

667
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 1: Pen Though, is priced about right uh to me, Scars Guard,

668
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:07,640
Speaker 1: there's a little bit of value on him. I would

669
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 1: need about three seventy five plus three seventy five or

670
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 1: better to bet Scars Guard.

671
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:14,080
Speaker 4: You know, I was thinking it's a three man race,

672
00:32:14,120 --> 00:32:17,160
Speaker 4: like I think. I thought Penn was really like probably

673
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 4: gonna win. But I saw one battle first, and then

674
00:32:19,880 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 4: I saw sentimental value. The more I look at it,

675
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 4: like Window is a dark horse. I don't think he

676
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 4: got enough screen time like he was great in you know,

677
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:31,960
Speaker 4: the few lines he delivered, but I don't know, he

678
00:32:32,040 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 4: was kind of like in and out centers in my opinion,

679
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 4: like you, Sean Penn was more involved and was just great.

680
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:43,680
Speaker 4: He had like the facial expressions and just but scars

681
00:32:43,680 --> 00:32:48,680
Speaker 4: Guard was almost like the main character in sentimental value.

682
00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 1: He could he could have been put he could have

683
00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 1: been put in, Yeah, for sure.

684
00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 4: So the fact that he's plus three seventy six on

685
00:32:55,360 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 4: DK Predictions plus four hundred on DK Sports, I think

686
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 4: he's the queer chores and that, And then you go

687
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,840
Speaker 4: to to DK Predictions, you could also bet Sean Penn

688
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 4: no at plus two fifty seven, which I think is

689
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 4: great because let's say it's a three man race, so

690
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:10,800
Speaker 4: it's like all right, you know, plus two hundred equal

691
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 4: thirty three percent you know, chance of of no, and

692
00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 4: it's it's longer than that. So I think that's actually

693
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 4: fair too if you think it's a three man race

694
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 4: between you know, scars Guard, Pen and Window. So yeah,

695
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:25,400
Speaker 4: I think I think the value is on Pen No,

696
00:33:26,280 --> 00:33:30,120
Speaker 4: and clearly scars Guard, Yes, like three plus three seventy

697
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:34,040
Speaker 4: six plus four hundred. Like like again, we don't know

698
00:33:34,080 --> 00:33:36,160
Speaker 4: what CLV is gonna be So you can't go exactly

699
00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:38,200
Speaker 4: by the gold Derby stuff for exactly by anything.

700
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 2: Really, it's just is there a chance here? Is there

701
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:41,760
Speaker 2: a decent shot?

702
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 4: Is this a one man race or is this a

703
00:33:43,160 --> 00:33:46,040
Speaker 4: multiman race, a multi or man or woman race, whatever,

704
00:33:46,600 --> 00:33:50,200
Speaker 4: and multi film race Scars Guard it is to me

705
00:33:50,320 --> 00:33:52,880
Speaker 4: clearly in supporting actor, So I think Scars Guard is

706
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 4: by far the choice because it's like you said, he

707
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 4: could have been. He could have been cast or nominated

708
00:33:57,800 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 4: for the leader role in that.

709
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 1: A couple of history oracle data points here I wanted

710
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 1: to bring up. I forgot to bring this up with

711
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 1: Actor when we were talking about shallow May's chances again.

712
00:34:06,920 --> 00:34:10,800
Speaker 1: As I mentioned, the two strongest predictors of acting awards

713
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 1: are the SAG and the baf does Shalla May didn't

714
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 1: win a SAG or a Bafta this year. The last

715
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 1: time Best Actor went to someone who didn't win a

716
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:23,440
Speaker 1: SAG or Bafta, funnily enough, was Sean Penn all the

717
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 1: way back in two thousand and three. The SAG went

718
00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:28,880
Speaker 1: to Johnny Depp, the BAFTA win to Bill Murray. Shawanpenn

719
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 1: won the Oscar. So if Timothy Shallow may wins. He'll

720
00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:34,080
Speaker 1: be bucking that trend. But that brings me to best

721
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:36,720
Speaker 1: Supporting Actor. As I mentioned, Pen won both the SAG

722
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,200
Speaker 1: and the BAFTA. The last time the SAG and the

723
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:43,759
Speaker 1: BAFTA agreed and the OSCAR wasn't correct was all the

724
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 1: way back in two thousand and two when the SAG

725
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:49,680
Speaker 1: and baft TO both awarded Christopher Walkin and Chris Cooper

726
00:34:50,200 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 1: won the OSCAR. So that's a point in Penn's favor.

727
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 1: But as you said, this has been a very strange

728
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:01,640
Speaker 1: race and wide open. I wonder he's watching it. I

729
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:03,560
Speaker 1: wonder if Sean TAM's going to be there. He skipped

730
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 1: out on most of the precursor shows. I don't know

731
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:08,120
Speaker 1: if it's prior obligation or if it's just he's old

732
00:35:08,160 --> 00:35:09,440
Speaker 1: and doesn't give a shit anymore.

733
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:14,440
Speaker 4: Anthony Hopkins, the Anthony Hopkins, Yeah, especially Yeah, I don't know.

734
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:16,840
Speaker 1: I'm interested in if he'll be there on Sunday. I

735
00:35:16,880 --> 00:35:18,879
Speaker 1: think he went to the Golden Globes, so he wasn't

736
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:20,919
Speaker 1: at the Actor Awards. He wasn't at the bath does.

737
00:35:21,760 --> 00:35:23,759
Speaker 3: I'm not sure Supporting actress.

738
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 2: This one's wide open.

739
00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 4: We got Amy Madigan at just a plus like an

740
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,839
Speaker 4: even money favorite for weapons, Tiana Taylor one battle after

741
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 4: another plus one eighty five at the sportsbook, one Mi

742
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 4: Mosaku for sinners plus two fifty, and then we got

743
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:43,600
Speaker 4: a couple of long the two other actresses from Sentimental.

744
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:45,280
Speaker 2: Value are.

745
00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:48,279
Speaker 3: You don't want to try to say I was.

746
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:52,759
Speaker 2: I was trying to say, El Fann No, I don't,

747
00:35:52,800 --> 00:35:53,399
Speaker 2: I don't. I don't.

748
00:35:54,000 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, Inga Inga and el Fanning from Sentimental Value. If

749
00:35:58,200 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 4: you want to say it, go go ahead, And I had.

750
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 3: Heard it before.

751
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:04,239
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna. I don't want to piss off any

752
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 1: of the Swedish people that might be listening to this podcast,

753
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:12,400
Speaker 1: But yeah, this is the most fascinating major race of

754
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:15,720
Speaker 1: the night. We've seen three of the five nominees emerge

755
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 1: as a favorite at various times over the last couple

756
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 1: of months. Tiana Taylor was the early front runner. She's

757
00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:25,440
Speaker 1: still very much in the ballgame. Amy Madigan won the

758
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:29,080
Speaker 1: first major precursor award, which was the Critics Choice Awards,

759
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:32,080
Speaker 1: which proved that she was a real player, and then

760
00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:35,560
Speaker 1: the BAFTA win to Wumi Mosaku, leading to a scenario

761
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:38,360
Speaker 1: where none of the nominees could be considered a significant favorite.

762
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 1: I think they're all at plus money right now, or

763
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:44,520
Speaker 1: they're close to it. Madigan, though, won at the Actor

764
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,080
Speaker 1: Awards that ultimately put her out front. That's where things stand.

765
00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 1: It's the tepid lead, though, and just over fifty percent

766
00:36:51,320 --> 00:36:54,880
Speaker 1: of gold Derby's experts and editors ron Madigan. What's surprising

767
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:57,799
Speaker 1: to me is that Taylor and Masaku were so close

768
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:00,719
Speaker 1: at gold Derby at twenty four and twenty two percent respectively,

769
00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 1: at least when I looked last night. I talked about

770
00:37:04,160 --> 00:37:07,600
Speaker 1: this with Best Actor and the Baptist pick there. But

771
00:37:07,640 --> 00:37:10,319
Speaker 1: I think Massaku's being a little overrated here. She grew

772
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:13,160
Speaker 1: up in England, she's born in Nigeria. Her family emigrated

773
00:37:13,160 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 1: there when she was a year old. And as I said,

774
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:20,240
Speaker 1: the Baptists are notorious forring their own. That the Baftis

775
00:37:20,280 --> 00:37:23,279
Speaker 1: are the only show that Masaku won makes her win

776
00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:27,240
Speaker 1: much less meaningful in my eyes, and much less meaningful

777
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 1: than we're seeing in the odds toward. So I would

778
00:37:30,200 --> 00:37:35,120
Speaker 1: downgrade Masaku's chances here pretty significantly. The Oscar for Best

779
00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 1: Supporting Actress has gone to the SAG winner twenty of

780
00:37:38,040 --> 00:37:42,840
Speaker 1: the last twenty five times. It's the sharpest predictor of

781
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 1: any of the acting categories this century. They've also matched

782
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 1: six straight years and they've only disagreed once since two

783
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:52,840
Speaker 1: thousand and eight, and that was twenty eighteen when Regina

784
00:37:52,920 --> 00:37:56,240
Speaker 1: King beat out Emily Blunt. I am sitting on early

785
00:37:56,280 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 1: tickets on both Madigan and Taylor at plus money. I'll

786
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:02,279
Speaker 1: be right them both out till showtime. But I think

787
00:38:02,280 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 1: the most value here is on the SAG winner Madigan.

788
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be really exciting. She's the

789
00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 1: older nominee, kind of a career achievement award. Another thing

790
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:14,879
Speaker 1: going against her, I will say, is that only once

791
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:17,200
Speaker 1: this century, and only eight times ever has a film

792
00:38:17,239 --> 00:38:20,960
Speaker 1: won Best Supporting Actress with no other nominations on the night,

793
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:25,040
Speaker 1: and this is weapons only nomination. Vicky Christina Barcelona in

794
00:38:25,040 --> 00:38:27,440
Speaker 1: two thousand and eight is the answer. In Penelope Cruise won.

795
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:31,520
Speaker 1: So that's an uphill battle for Madigan, obviously, going against

796
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 1: actresses from the two biggest films of the night, one

797
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 1: battle after another in Sinners in Tiana Taylor and wun Mosaku.

798
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 1: If Amy Madigan pulls out the win, it'll be a

799
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:46,400
Speaker 1: big deal. But I think that all signs are pointing

800
00:38:46,400 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 1: toward her winning this on Sunday Night.

801
00:38:48,920 --> 00:38:50,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like Madigan.

802
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:53,840
Speaker 4: I think I don't mind, you know, hedging on Taylor

803
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:57,240
Speaker 4: because I think she was really good as well. But

804
00:38:57,280 --> 00:38:59,360
Speaker 4: the thing about Madigan is, you know you mentioned like

805
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 4: those the predictors and gold Derby.

806
00:39:02,200 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 2: This is one where gold Derby has been extremely strong.

807
00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 4: Thirteen of the fourteen top like top ranked gold Derby

808
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 4: choices in this category, you know, since they started tracking

809
00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 4: it have won. So the one time that it didn't

810
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 4: was Jamie Lee Curtis a few years ago.

811
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 2: Got to be fair.

812
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:22,560
Speaker 4: Amy Madigan's gold Derby support is on that lower end,

813
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 4: like the you know, like when there was an upset

814
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 4: with Curtis a few years ago, so that that is

815
00:39:26,760 --> 00:39:29,920
Speaker 4: kind of the caveat there. But generally gold Derby nails

816
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 4: this at better than a ninety percent clip and you

817
00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:35,719
Speaker 4: can get Madigan at even money, so I still think

818
00:39:35,760 --> 00:39:38,000
Speaker 4: she's the best bet. Like I'm looking for, you know,

819
00:39:38,160 --> 00:39:41,239
Speaker 4: underdogs in spots where there's the favorites like minus two, three,

820
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 4: four hundred or up and up here, we could get

821
00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:45,840
Speaker 4: the favorite at even money. So I think you just

822
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 4: take the favorite That's how I would approach it. But yeah,

823
00:39:48,160 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 4: Mosaku is not winning.

824
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:50,200
Speaker 2: I don't know.

825
00:39:50,640 --> 00:39:52,960
Speaker 4: The trend of centers is just being overrated and everything.

826
00:39:53,560 --> 00:39:56,560
Speaker 4: If you haven't noticed, that's the tread. I hate to

827
00:39:56,600 --> 00:39:59,239
Speaker 4: say it, that's the tread. But all right, those are

828
00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:02,480
Speaker 4: the main category. It's some decent value there compared to

829
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:05,080
Speaker 4: most years. But I think the best value tends to

830
00:40:05,120 --> 00:40:08,359
Speaker 4: be in some of these other categories that are maybe

831
00:40:08,400 --> 00:40:10,880
Speaker 4: a little more difficult or you know, just not as popular.

832
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 4: So we have let's see one, two, three, four, five, six, seven,

833
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:20,600
Speaker 4: eight category bets and eight more categories here, and I

834
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:22,680
Speaker 4: think these are going to be where the most values

835
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 4: at all. Right, so we're gonna get into eight more

836
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:28,520
Speaker 4: categories where we have best bets. But before we continue,

837
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 4: it's throw it over to Sean Zerillo for a quick

838
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:33,000
Speaker 4: word from our sponsored DraftKings.

839
00:40:33,160 --> 00:40:35,719
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840
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841
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849
00:41:01,280 --> 00:41:02,800
Speaker 2: We have picks in eight more categories.

850
00:41:02,800 --> 00:41:04,960
Speaker 4: I think these are where the best value is going

851
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:07,560
Speaker 4: to be at just because these are a little less popular,

852
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:11,000
Speaker 4: most of them are going to be long shots or

853
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:12,360
Speaker 4: better values.

854
00:41:12,880 --> 00:41:14,960
Speaker 2: But you do have one colin.

855
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:17,960
Speaker 4: That you like that's the favorite, but you think it's undervalued,

856
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:20,160
Speaker 4: and that is in Best Casting.

857
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:23,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is the first year best Casting. The Academy

858
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 1: added a category this year. It's first time in quite

859
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:28,280
Speaker 1: a while it's done that best Casting. So we don't

860
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:31,560
Speaker 1: have any data really to go off of in Best Casting.

861
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:33,920
Speaker 1: What we can do is look at what the Acting

862
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:37,400
Speaker 1: Guild did with Best Ensemble, and that went to Sinners.

863
00:41:37,960 --> 00:41:42,040
Speaker 1: I think that I'm going to assume that those two

864
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 1: categories will correlate until I'm proven wrong. That I could

865
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 1: be proven wrong this year, but every precursor, the amount

866
00:41:52,080 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 1: of Acting awards that Sinners has gotten has me pretty

867
00:41:57,200 --> 00:42:02,800
Speaker 1: confident in this category. Gold Derby I believe is aligned

868
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:06,600
Speaker 1: here as well. Ben Zausmer of The Hollywood Reporter gives

869
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:10,560
Speaker 1: Sinners a significant edge as well. So I bet Sinners

870
00:42:10,560 --> 00:42:14,359
Speaker 1: for Best Casting at minus three point fifteen. Again, it's

871
00:42:14,440 --> 00:42:17,440
Speaker 1: not the juiciest number, not the most exciting bet you're

872
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 1: gonna make all night, but I think it's about as

873
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:22,080
Speaker 1: close to a lock as we're going to get while

874
00:42:22,120 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 1: still showing value. I'd bet that up to probably about

875
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 1: minus five fifty for best Casting.

876
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:30,600
Speaker 4: I actually have a contraer and take here, so I agree.

877
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:34,200
Speaker 4: My model, like my gold Derby model actually was this.

878
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:37,799
Speaker 4: Sinners is like ninety percent on gold Derby. We like

879
00:42:37,880 --> 00:42:41,319
Speaker 4: minus you know, like minus nine hundred. So totally get

880
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:44,000
Speaker 4: why you would just wade the juice here. But the

881
00:42:44,040 --> 00:42:46,040
Speaker 4: people betting on gold Derby have nothing to go off of,

882
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:48,600
Speaker 4: Like there's this the ward has never been there before.

883
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:50,239
Speaker 4: No one has anything to go off of.

884
00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:50,600
Speaker 2: Right.

885
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:52,680
Speaker 4: One thing we do have to go off of is

886
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:56,799
Speaker 4: that we know strong films, best Picture nominated films tend to.

887
00:42:56,760 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 2: Win a lot of awards.

888
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:01,399
Speaker 4: Well, you can get one battle after another at plus

889
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:04,239
Speaker 4: three hundred. I mean, I think that's worth a long

890
00:43:04,239 --> 00:43:06,440
Speaker 4: shot because what I what I think really does it

891
00:43:06,520 --> 00:43:09,360
Speaker 4: for me is like del Roy was great in Cinders.

892
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 4: In Sinners, one meme was okay, I agree with you.

893
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:15,719
Speaker 4: I think she's a little overrated, and then Michael Jordan.

894
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:16,320
Speaker 2: Was obviously great.

895
00:43:16,480 --> 00:43:20,880
Speaker 4: But One Battle Leo was great, Tiana was great, Sean

896
00:43:20,960 --> 00:43:25,080
Speaker 4: Penn was great, and Chase Infinity, my god, I don't

897
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:26,840
Speaker 4: even know how she didn't get nominated for something like

898
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:29,840
Speaker 4: she might have been the best one in the movie.

899
00:43:30,200 --> 00:43:32,839
Speaker 4: So you're talking about four to three, what's the best

900
00:43:32,880 --> 00:43:37,399
Speaker 4: picture favorite one battle after another? Yeah, So again, let's

901
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:41,320
Speaker 4: say I have an interesting kind of I'm not sure

902
00:43:41,400 --> 00:43:43,879
Speaker 4: if your sports book is gonna let you parway some

903
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:44,520
Speaker 4: of these are not.

904
00:43:44,800 --> 00:43:48,640
Speaker 2: But if Timmy wins actor, I think.

905
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:52,440
Speaker 4: There's also a decent chance that one Battle when's casting,

906
00:43:52,440 --> 00:43:54,360
Speaker 4: and like you could just do like a little fade

907
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:58,600
Speaker 4: of the sag Or Actors Awards because for the recency buy.

908
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:01,000
Speaker 4: So that's that's the way I would approach I feel

909
00:44:01,000 --> 00:44:04,600
Speaker 4: you based on my straight up math like Sinners, but again,

910
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:08,279
Speaker 4: I don't have the data like you know. It's it's

911
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 4: we're basing it off one year of gold Derby, zero

912
00:44:11,160 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 4: years of gold Derby versus fourteen.

913
00:44:14,080 --> 00:44:16,240
Speaker 2: So I'm I'm.

914
00:44:16,040 --> 00:44:17,719
Speaker 4: Gonna go with the contrarian take here, and we'll be

915
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:19,240
Speaker 4: on the opposite sides of this one.

916
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:22,480
Speaker 2: I'll go with one battle at at plus three hundreds.

917
00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:24,480
Speaker 1: It is worth not it is worth noting that all

918
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:27,960
Speaker 1: of the Best Casting nominees this year were Best Picture nominees.

919
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:31,720
Speaker 1: The friend that I think will continue going forward.

920
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:32,320
Speaker 3: I do believe.

921
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:36,240
Speaker 1: I believe we're gonna get a Best Stunt Coordination category

922
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:38,160
Speaker 1: added to the Oscars in the next year too, So

923
00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 1: we'll have another new category that we'll have the same

924
00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:45,040
Speaker 1: issue with, and we'll just we'll grow the the data

925
00:44:45,080 --> 00:44:48,919
Speaker 1: pool as best we can with best Casting as out

926
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 1: we go on, I will say ben z Ausmer I

927
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:56,919
Speaker 1: cited before the Yeah Yeah Ostra Metrics oscar metrics guy.

928
00:44:57,080 --> 00:44:59,800
Speaker 1: He said he pulled ninety members of the casting society

929
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 1: to generates as large of a training set as possible,

930
00:45:04,160 --> 00:45:06,680
Speaker 1: and he makes centners sixty one percent in one battle

931
00:45:06,680 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 1: after another just fourteen percent.

932
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:09,600
Speaker 3: Oh So I like.

933
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 2: That then, because sinners imply odds of sinners like eighty percent. Yeah,

934
00:45:13,160 --> 00:45:15,240
Speaker 2: but I'll fade centers.

935
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:18,440
Speaker 1: His his his bottom wrung guys always have a higher

936
00:45:18,480 --> 00:45:21,760
Speaker 1: percentage than probably necessary, which skews the top on down,

937
00:45:21,880 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 1: like the super Agent is at four and a half

938
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:27,239
Speaker 1: percent and Hamleet's at ten percent. Yeah, you see that

939
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:29,239
Speaker 1: in pretty much all the categories. You have to kind

940
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:31,080
Speaker 1: of pare it down a little bit. But yes, uh,

941
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:34,120
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't have any issue with your strategy here.

942
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:38,719
Speaker 1: I just think, I mean, but we're it's fun that

943
00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 1: we're doing the podcast, Chris, because we're on such opposite

944
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:44,600
Speaker 1: sides here where I think there's a chance Sinners like

945
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:47,600
Speaker 1: sets records and you think there's a chance they set

946
00:45:47,640 --> 00:45:49,400
Speaker 1: records in futility.

947
00:45:49,080 --> 00:45:53,759
Speaker 4: Tity Hey, I like again, like the I even the

948
00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 4: first thing I said before I started watching the films

949
00:45:56,160 --> 00:45:58,400
Speaker 4: was I was like, I'm thinking of vetting Sinners in

950
00:45:58,560 --> 00:46:01,919
Speaker 4: like every category. It's in Underdog, yeah, because it's got

951
00:46:01,920 --> 00:46:03,960
Speaker 4: so many nominations, it must be getting love.

952
00:46:04,000 --> 00:46:05,120
Speaker 2: And then I watched it.

953
00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:07,880
Speaker 4: And I was like, oh, okay, like I don't know,

954
00:46:07,920 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 4: it just it just didn't really do it for me.

955
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 4: But like I'm just using straight up like, Okay, from

956
00:46:15,000 --> 00:46:17,440
Speaker 4: a casting perspective, we have no data to go off of,

957
00:46:17,680 --> 00:46:20,600
Speaker 4: so I can't while I do respect like the gold

958
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:22,960
Speaker 4: Derby people, and I do respect, you know, the surveys

959
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:24,600
Speaker 4: and the like Ben who's been doing this for a

960
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:27,239
Speaker 4: while as well. It's like, bottom line is, no one

961
00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:30,040
Speaker 4: has any data to go off of, and if they're

962
00:46:30,080 --> 00:46:32,520
Speaker 4: doing a poland it's only at sixty percent for sinners

963
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:37,919
Speaker 4: and they're being priced at like eighty percent. I think

964
00:46:37,920 --> 00:46:39,720
Speaker 4: the only other one that has a chance is One Battle,

965
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:42,279
Speaker 4: so I would say that's thirty nine percent. Then like

966
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:43,920
Speaker 4: I would, I would just give all the other ones

967
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:48,200
Speaker 4: to One Battle because like I'm surprised Sentimental Value didn't

968
00:46:48,200 --> 00:46:50,960
Speaker 4: get it get one since they got so many acting

969
00:46:51,000 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 4: nominations otherwise. But yeah, I think One Battle legitimately did

970
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:58,320
Speaker 4: have better casting, like I think, but Tiana Taylor like that,

971
00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:01,200
Speaker 4: that was an amazing casting job. Giana and Chase Infinity

972
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:04,480
Speaker 4: on its own are just that's just an amazing casting job.

973
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:06,960
Speaker 2: And to get that, to get that out of Sewan.

974
00:47:07,040 --> 00:47:10,399
Speaker 4: Like even Leo, like Leo is going underrated and gave

975
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:12,200
Speaker 4: like one of the best performances of his life and

976
00:47:12,200 --> 00:47:14,120
Speaker 4: it was like no one's even talking about it.

977
00:47:14,200 --> 00:47:16,640
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think I think it definitely has.

978
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:19,120
Speaker 4: A shot, like a better than a plus three hundred shot,

979
00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:21,279
Speaker 4: which would be twenty five percent. I think it has

980
00:47:21,320 --> 00:47:23,759
Speaker 4: more than a twenty five percent shot, just because I

981
00:47:23,800 --> 00:47:25,840
Speaker 4: that's just the vibes. That's just vibes. We have no

982
00:47:25,920 --> 00:47:33,960
Speaker 4: data again, but cinematography we both like a long shot. Here,

983
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:36,000
Speaker 4: one battle after another, the favorite.

984
00:47:36,160 --> 00:47:36,680
Speaker 2: What do you got?

985
00:47:37,600 --> 00:47:39,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm on Sinners again here.

986
00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:44,840
Speaker 1: Plus three fifty there, plus three fifty to four hundred range.

987
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:49,400
Speaker 1: So this is pretty interesting race and how it's played

988
00:47:49,440 --> 00:47:53,840
Speaker 1: out over the last couple of weeks. It looked like

989
00:47:53,920 --> 00:47:56,800
Speaker 1: Sinners was going to be a strong favorite early in

990
00:47:56,800 --> 00:48:00,560
Speaker 1: awards season. It won the Critics Circle Honor, It won

991
00:48:01,000 --> 00:48:06,160
Speaker 1: Critics Circle Honors after Critics Circle Honors. Choice is quick

992
00:48:06,200 --> 00:48:11,000
Speaker 1: Chris Circle like honors, honors within individual branches of critics

993
00:48:11,960 --> 00:48:15,960
Speaker 1: moment the momentum swung the other way. Zeusmer wrote about

994
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:19,000
Speaker 1: this a little bit, one battle after another one the

995
00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:22,239
Speaker 1: bat does It won the American Society of Cinematographers most

996
00:48:22,280 --> 00:48:25,400
Speaker 1: recently just this week, so it's jumped out to a

997
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 1: huge lead, and it was a toss up just a

998
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:32,000
Speaker 1: round a month ago. The ASC the American Society Cinematographers

999
00:48:32,040 --> 00:48:34,319
Speaker 1: is a notable data point, but it's worth noting just

1000
00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:37,920
Speaker 1: how much more international the Academy is compared to some

1001
00:48:38,000 --> 00:48:40,400
Speaker 1: of these guilds. So I think Sinners is still very live.

1002
00:48:42,320 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 1: Gold Derby still has Centers around fifty percent, and I

1003
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:50,839
Speaker 1: know Train Dreams has some backers. I think that's where

1004
00:48:50,840 --> 00:48:52,960
Speaker 1: you're gonna talk about a little bit, Chris. But I

1005
00:48:53,080 --> 00:48:55,040
Speaker 1: just think that this is going to be between Sinners

1006
00:48:55,080 --> 00:48:57,560
Speaker 1: and one battle after another. I think it's a true

1007
00:48:57,680 --> 00:49:00,719
Speaker 1: toss up. And if we're seeing centers and like the

1008
00:49:00,760 --> 00:49:02,839
Speaker 1: plus three fifty to plus four fifty range, I think

1009
00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:03,920
Speaker 1: there's real value there.

1010
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 4: I think you have to smash Centers here and Training

1011
00:49:07,719 --> 00:49:10,120
Speaker 4: Dreams because this is the one where like we're just

1012
00:49:10,120 --> 00:49:11,880
Speaker 4: betting the numbers, like we don't know if these voters

1013
00:49:11,880 --> 00:49:15,000
Speaker 4: are gonna do like we So it's like one battle

1014
00:49:15,040 --> 00:49:15,439
Speaker 4: after another.

1015
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:15,719
Speaker 2: Shit.

1016
00:49:15,800 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 4: Whatever the case, as good as it was, should not

1017
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:24,120
Speaker 4: be a prohibitive favorite in this category. Now, Like you said,

1018
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 4: gold Derby has Sinners at forty six percent, one Battle

1019
00:49:27,160 --> 00:49:28,760
Speaker 4: at thirty seven, Train Dreams at seventeen.

1020
00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:33,920
Speaker 2: Sinners is going at what let's see.

1021
00:49:34,280 --> 00:49:35,839
Speaker 4: Let me just make sure we got this right, cause

1022
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:38,960
Speaker 4: it's it's been changing throughout the day. Sinners as we

1023
00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:41,960
Speaker 4: record this is it's down a plus two seventy five.

1024
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 2: It must have just got steamed.

1025
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:46,880
Speaker 4: But either way, it's forty six percent on gold Derby

1026
00:49:47,000 --> 00:49:51,239
Speaker 4: plus two to seventy five in plies a about a

1027
00:49:51,360 --> 00:49:53,359
Speaker 4: twenty seven percent chance.

1028
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:56,080
Speaker 2: That's massive value.

1029
00:49:56,200 --> 00:49:58,360
Speaker 4: So you have to you have to take sinner if

1030
00:49:58,400 --> 00:50:00,439
Speaker 4: you're batting centers anywhere else, you have to to take

1031
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:02,560
Speaker 4: it here Like this is like I am begging people

1032
00:50:02,680 --> 00:50:04,640
Speaker 4: take sinners.

1033
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:03,759
Speaker 2: Uh.

1034
00:50:04,160 --> 00:50:07,279
Speaker 4: It's literally the favorite on gold Derby and you're getting

1035
00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:10,560
Speaker 4: it at plus two seventy five, and gold Derby generally speaking,

1036
00:50:10,840 --> 00:50:13,800
Speaker 4: does know what it's talking about. Overall accuracy is usually

1037
00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:15,680
Speaker 4: in a seventy five to eighty percent range over a

1038
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:18,040
Speaker 4: fourteen year span. So anytime you can get a long

1039
00:50:18,040 --> 00:50:20,880
Speaker 4: shot that's like a favorite on gold Derby, that's like

1040
00:50:20,880 --> 00:50:24,239
Speaker 4: an auto play. Yeah, and then and then now I

1041
00:50:24,280 --> 00:50:26,000
Speaker 4: will say I agree with you. It's a weak front

1042
00:50:26,040 --> 00:50:28,280
Speaker 4: runner because one battle after another, one in the bathroom,

1043
00:50:28,320 --> 00:50:30,920
Speaker 4: and the SSC and the BSc and the ASC. But

1044
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:34,560
Speaker 4: Train Dreams also interesting because, like you said, a little

1045
00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:36,480
Speaker 4: more international, just a little more kind of up in

1046
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:38,759
Speaker 4: the air, Train Dreams is a really international film r anthing.

1047
00:50:38,840 --> 00:50:41,959
Speaker 4: But just I think there is some kind of things

1048
00:50:42,000 --> 00:50:45,520
Speaker 4: could cancel out. Traine Dreams did win a critics choice,

1049
00:50:45,920 --> 00:50:47,839
Speaker 4: so and and gold Derby has training rooms.

1050
00:50:47,880 --> 00:50:50,959
Speaker 2: That's seventeen percent, which is they think it's a legit

1051
00:50:51,040 --> 00:50:52,000
Speaker 2: three film race.

1052
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:55,160
Speaker 4: So Train Dreams, you could get it plus six sixty

1053
00:50:55,239 --> 00:50:58,200
Speaker 4: nine plus you know in that range plus seven hundred.

1054
00:50:58,680 --> 00:50:59,919
Speaker 2: I take a shot there as a head.

1055
00:51:00,160 --> 00:51:02,560
Speaker 4: But you gotta SMA, You've got to smash sinners here

1056
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 4: like this is this is like if you're betting sinners anywhere,

1057
00:51:06,160 --> 00:51:07,280
Speaker 4: please let it be here.

1058
00:51:07,480 --> 00:51:08,120
Speaker 2: Like please.

1059
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:10,680
Speaker 1: One thing I was curious about, and I did a

1060
00:51:10,760 --> 00:51:14,000
Speaker 1: quick search while you were talking, here is Train Dreams,

1061
00:51:14,120 --> 00:51:17,279
Speaker 1: along with Frankenstein. It should be noted are Netflix productions.

1062
00:51:17,800 --> 00:51:19,960
Speaker 1: And there's been a lot of talk about how Netflix

1063
00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:24,600
Speaker 1: films fare at the Oscars. Obviously it's very contentious because

1064
00:51:24,640 --> 00:51:26,800
Speaker 1: they don't put their they put their movies in theaters

1065
00:51:26,840 --> 00:51:30,680
Speaker 1: generally the bare minimum amount to qualify. Most people see

1066
00:51:30,680 --> 00:51:33,400
Speaker 1: them streaming at home. So I was curious if they've

1067
00:51:33,400 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 1: had any success in the Best Cinematography category. And to

1068
00:51:37,960 --> 00:51:41,720
Speaker 1: my surprise and to your data point for you, the answers, yes,

1069
00:51:41,800 --> 00:51:45,799
Speaker 1: they've won Best Cinematography three times. Netflix produced films have

1070
00:51:45,880 --> 00:51:49,200
Speaker 1: all quite on the Western Front May in twenty twenty three,

1071
00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:51,560
Speaker 1: Man and twenty twenty one in Roma in twenty nineteen

1072
00:51:51,560 --> 00:51:54,960
Speaker 1: were all Netflix films that won Best Cinematography. So another

1073
00:51:55,000 --> 00:51:57,360
Speaker 1: point in the Train Dreams I should mention yet is

1074
00:51:57,600 --> 00:52:00,759
Speaker 1: a Netflix film, So another point that's favor there.

1075
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, mank was the one I think is kind of

1076
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:06,839
Speaker 4: the instructive one because that was those five years ago

1077
00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:09,040
Speaker 4: and that was not a favorite at the time. So

1078
00:52:09,080 --> 00:52:11,040
Speaker 4: that's really the one we're kind of looking at, like, Okay,

1079
00:52:11,400 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 4: if it happens, I think it's that you go that way.

1080
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:14,799
Speaker 2: But yeah, this one.

1081
00:52:15,080 --> 00:52:18,040
Speaker 4: The other thing I think actually works, like when you know,

1082
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:19,359
Speaker 4: when you kind of rea I know you read these

1083
00:52:19,400 --> 00:52:21,799
Speaker 4: two like those like secret ballots and who knows if

1084
00:52:21,800 --> 00:52:25,120
Speaker 4: they're really real or just editors playing editor games.

1085
00:52:24,840 --> 00:52:25,000
Speaker 2: But.

1086
00:52:26,600 --> 00:52:28,480
Speaker 4: If they are real, I see a lot of times

1087
00:52:28,520 --> 00:52:30,359
Speaker 4: where it's like, Okay, well this film got recognized here,

1088
00:52:30,360 --> 00:52:32,040
Speaker 4: and this got recognized here, so we want to recognize

1089
00:52:32,040 --> 00:52:35,440
Speaker 4: this film here, right like, And I think the fact

1090
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:39,400
Speaker 4: that Sinners and One Battle after Another both have so

1091
00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 4: many nominations, Training Dreams doesn't have as many.

1092
00:52:42,680 --> 00:52:43,680
Speaker 2: But it was a good film.

1093
00:52:43,840 --> 00:52:45,560
Speaker 4: It was it was a shorter film, but it was

1094
00:52:45,640 --> 00:52:48,560
Speaker 4: very good if if they liked it enough to nominate

1095
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:51,800
Speaker 4: it for Best Picture, this might be a category where

1096
00:52:52,080 --> 00:52:53,839
Speaker 4: people kind of say, you know, like Sinners is gonna

1097
00:52:53,880 --> 00:52:57,120
Speaker 4: get theirs, One Battle is gonna get theirs. Let's give

1098
00:52:57,160 --> 00:52:59,279
Speaker 4: it to train Dreams. So like the fact that gold

1099
00:52:59,280 --> 00:53:03,000
Speaker 4: Derby has a third place this high. Usually don't see

1100
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:05,080
Speaker 4: that unless it's like acting, and it's been like a

1101
00:53:05,120 --> 00:53:07,920
Speaker 4: mix up of all the different precursors. But in like

1102
00:53:07,960 --> 00:53:10,759
Speaker 4: one of the technical categories for a film and third

1103
00:53:10,760 --> 00:53:13,480
Speaker 4: place to get this many you know this much gold

1104
00:53:13,480 --> 00:53:16,799
Speaker 4: Derby support, I'm definitely gonna pay attention to that. So, yeah,

1105
00:53:17,000 --> 00:53:20,040
Speaker 4: sprinkle sprinkle on Training Dreams. But you gotta smash centers here.

1106
00:53:20,120 --> 00:53:21,759
Speaker 4: This is where this is where I go off the

1107
00:53:21,800 --> 00:53:25,879
Speaker 4: brand and say go and I'm I got some more.

1108
00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:28,239
Speaker 4: I got some more coming for you. But talk to

1109
00:53:28,280 --> 00:53:32,839
Speaker 4: me about Best International Feature. Because Sentimental Value seemed like

1110
00:53:33,120 --> 00:53:36,160
Speaker 4: it was loved like so many for acting nominations, but

1111
00:53:36,200 --> 00:53:39,520
Speaker 4: didn't get nominated for casting somehow, but it did get

1112
00:53:39,560 --> 00:53:41,279
Speaker 4: nominated for Best Picture. It's in a kind of a

1113
00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:43,680
Speaker 4: two film race with the Secret Agent, and you like

1114
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:45,479
Speaker 4: the Secret Agent at plus three seventy five.

1115
00:53:45,840 --> 00:53:50,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is my most vibes based Bed of the Night.

1116
00:53:50,840 --> 00:53:54,279
Speaker 1: I know we talk a lot about math here, I

1117
00:53:54,320 --> 00:53:56,520
Speaker 1: talked a little bit about narrative, and this is very

1118
00:53:56,960 --> 00:54:00,839
Speaker 1: narrative driven. BET plus three seventy five for Secret Agent.

1119
00:54:01,440 --> 00:54:04,239
Speaker 1: The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value are the only two

1120
00:54:04,360 --> 00:54:09,080
Speaker 1: Best International Film nominees that are nominated for Best Pictures,

1121
00:54:09,080 --> 00:54:11,279
Speaker 1: so it's pretty easily going to be one of those

1122
00:54:11,320 --> 00:54:16,320
Speaker 1: two films that wins this award. There's nothing super obvious

1123
00:54:16,360 --> 00:54:19,000
Speaker 1: for why Sentimental Value should be so far ahead right

1124
00:54:19,040 --> 00:54:22,440
Speaker 1: now in the OS board, and from a narrative perspective,

1125
00:54:22,920 --> 00:54:24,640
Speaker 1: we talked about this a little bit with Sinners in

1126
00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:27,600
Speaker 1: one Battle after another. The Secret Agent is a very

1127
00:54:27,640 --> 00:54:32,840
Speaker 1: political movie. It's about an oppressive government regime silencing its critics.

1128
00:54:33,280 --> 00:54:39,160
Speaker 1: It resonates with more than just Brazilian audiences because of

1129
00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:43,160
Speaker 1: that and because of gestures broadly at the world at large.

1130
00:54:43,239 --> 00:54:47,800
Speaker 1: Right now, Sentimental Value is the only Best International Film

1131
00:54:47,840 --> 00:54:51,680
Speaker 1: nominee that it's not political. Now, that's not to say

1132
00:54:51,719 --> 00:54:54,840
Speaker 1: it can't resonate with audiences. It's a father daughter story,

1133
00:54:55,440 --> 00:55:00,160
Speaker 1: it's very sweet, it is very pun intended. Sentimental can

1134
00:55:00,200 --> 00:55:03,080
Speaker 1: resonate with people who aren't from that part of the

1135
00:55:03,120 --> 00:55:05,720
Speaker 1: world very easily. But I think given the current climate,

1136
00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:08,280
Speaker 1: we could see a film with a real striking message

1137
00:55:08,280 --> 00:55:13,720
Speaker 1: come through. I have just anecdotally heard a lot more

1138
00:55:13,800 --> 00:55:18,439
Speaker 1: love from people about The Secret Agent than sentimental value.

1139
00:55:18,480 --> 00:55:21,080
Speaker 1: I think it was seen by more people, it was

1140
00:55:21,160 --> 00:55:24,680
Speaker 1: made more widely available in theaters, so I think that

1141
00:55:24,719 --> 00:55:27,240
Speaker 1: there is very real value in Secret Agent. And these

1142
00:55:27,560 --> 00:55:32,480
Speaker 1: the feature, the international feature, documentary, feature animated feature are

1143
00:55:32,520 --> 00:55:35,000
Speaker 1: generally where I personally find the most value in the

1144
00:55:35,000 --> 00:55:39,560
Speaker 1: betting market, and this is probably my favorite bet at

1145
00:55:39,600 --> 00:55:42,680
Speaker 1: plus money. At least of the oscars is Secret Agent here.

1146
00:55:43,640 --> 00:55:44,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I might join you.

1147
00:55:44,640 --> 00:55:46,359
Speaker 4: That's the one I didn't get to yet, so I'm

1148
00:55:46,360 --> 00:55:49,640
Speaker 4: not gonna like that. That's right up my alley, you know,

1149
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:52,439
Speaker 4: like a two film race, and you have one that's

1150
00:55:52,440 --> 00:55:54,719
Speaker 4: like plus three seventy five. So I might join you there,

1151
00:55:54,800 --> 00:55:57,440
Speaker 4: but don't want to give any recommendations when I haven't

1152
00:55:58,200 --> 00:56:01,399
Speaker 4: haven't seen the film, but was I really did enjoy

1153
00:56:01,480 --> 00:56:04,600
Speaker 4: sentimental value, So if it was unpopular, I get why.

1154
00:56:04,760 --> 00:56:07,600
Speaker 4: Maybe there is some kind of like okay, like maybe

1155
00:56:07,640 --> 00:56:09,040
Speaker 4: it's not as strong, but it was.

1156
00:56:09,360 --> 00:56:11,080
Speaker 2: That was a very good film too. I get why

1157
00:56:11,120 --> 00:56:15,160
Speaker 2: the the actors in that film got nominated. So but yeah,

1158
00:56:15,239 --> 00:56:16,959
Speaker 2: I'm looking forward to checking out Secret Agent.

1159
00:56:17,000 --> 00:56:19,960
Speaker 4: But you like that at plus three seventy five should

1160
00:56:19,960 --> 00:56:22,080
Speaker 4: be decent value. I mean, do you even have a

1161
00:56:22,120 --> 00:56:23,640
Speaker 4: limit there? I mean, it sounds like it's gonna be

1162
00:56:23,640 --> 00:56:26,799
Speaker 4: pretty decent value. Yeah, i'd say probably matter what. I'd

1163
00:56:26,840 --> 00:56:28,640
Speaker 4: probably say like plus.

1164
00:56:28,480 --> 00:56:30,640
Speaker 1: Three hundred or better if I had to, if I

1165
00:56:30,680 --> 00:56:32,240
Speaker 1: had to, maybe plus two fifty.

1166
00:56:33,160 --> 00:56:36,439
Speaker 4: Oh oh, it's actually down. So I think that got

1167
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:40,759
Speaker 4: steamed too. It's down a plus one seventy five on

1168
00:56:40,800 --> 00:56:44,000
Speaker 4: the sports book. Yeah, so it got it got steamed down.

1169
00:56:44,120 --> 00:56:44,560
Speaker 2: Wow.

1170
00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:46,760
Speaker 4: So you're saying you wouldn't bet it there sentimental values

1171
00:56:46,800 --> 00:56:51,360
Speaker 4: minus two fifty? Does that change your Uh? Does that

1172
00:56:51,440 --> 00:56:53,520
Speaker 4: change a strategy at all? This is live, so we

1173
00:56:53,680 --> 00:56:54,839
Speaker 4: just when you.

1174
00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:56,280
Speaker 2: Put it in the outline, it might have been plus

1175
00:56:56,280 --> 00:56:58,480
Speaker 2: three seventy five. Yeah, but it was.

1176
00:56:59,400 --> 00:57:01,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean.

1177
00:57:01,120 --> 00:57:03,640
Speaker 4: Our producers, our producers gotta stop betting our damn pitt

1178
00:57:03,680 --> 00:57:04,240
Speaker 4: now its kidding.

1179
00:57:06,040 --> 00:57:08,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's probably stay away from me if it's not

1180
00:57:08,719 --> 00:57:12,839
Speaker 1: at least probably plus two fifty. Okay, I do see

1181
00:57:12,880 --> 00:57:15,400
Speaker 1: in the market. I'm seeing plus three fifteen. Uh in

1182
00:57:15,440 --> 00:57:18,080
Speaker 1: the market just generally, so uh, and you take that

1183
00:57:18,160 --> 00:57:20,880
Speaker 1: there's still some odds out there that are okay, yeah, okay, but.

1184
00:57:20,880 --> 00:57:23,320
Speaker 4: Yeah yeah at draftings, it definitely got steamed down, which

1185
00:57:24,120 --> 00:57:27,680
Speaker 4: I mean to your point that that that's exactly what

1186
00:57:27,720 --> 00:57:28,120
Speaker 4: you're saying.

1187
00:57:28,160 --> 00:57:30,200
Speaker 2: It's like, yeah, it's it's it's old too.

1188
00:57:30,200 --> 00:57:30,400
Speaker 1: Well.

1189
00:57:31,360 --> 00:57:34,800
Speaker 4: Uh okay, So I got some thoughts here. I'm curious

1190
00:57:34,800 --> 00:57:38,400
Speaker 4: as to your opinion of these. These are a couple

1191
00:57:38,400 --> 00:57:42,080
Speaker 4: of my probably my two favorite bets of this Oscar season.

1192
00:57:42,080 --> 00:57:43,280
Speaker 2: And you're gonna you're gonna.

1193
00:57:43,120 --> 00:57:49,000
Speaker 4: Laugh at who I'm picking Best Production Design Sinners plus

1194
00:57:49,080 --> 00:57:49,720
Speaker 4: six hundred.

1195
00:57:50,120 --> 00:57:52,480
Speaker 2: Let's go. So here's why I like this is I

1196
00:57:52,560 --> 00:57:55,120
Speaker 2: like Cinners in the in these categories. It was a

1197
00:57:55,160 --> 00:57:55,760
Speaker 2: movie that it.

1198
00:57:55,720 --> 00:57:58,720
Speaker 4: Was bright, it was like, the sets were great, it

1199
00:57:58,760 --> 00:58:00,360
Speaker 4: was I just I just think the I think was

1200
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:04,439
Speaker 4: a little overrated in centers, and like the screenplay as well.

1201
00:58:04,920 --> 00:58:06,960
Speaker 2: But I actually think it can pick up some of

1202
00:58:07,000 --> 00:58:11,600
Speaker 2: these like visual awards. So six to one for.

1203
00:58:11,560 --> 00:58:16,160
Speaker 4: Production design in twenty twenty three, it's only getting seven

1204
00:58:16,200 --> 00:58:20,120
Speaker 4: percent on gold Derby, So it's gold Derby is actually

1205
00:58:20,120 --> 00:58:24,560
Speaker 4: fading it in this category. But in twenty twenty three,

1206
00:58:24,880 --> 00:58:27,040
Speaker 4: that's just a few years ago. All Quiet on the

1207
00:58:27,040 --> 00:58:30,040
Speaker 4: Western Front one with just three percent of gold Derby support.

1208
00:58:30,720 --> 00:58:33,680
Speaker 4: Twice in the last seven years the number one pick

1209
00:58:33,760 --> 00:58:37,720
Speaker 4: on gold Derby has been upset. So that's a twenty

1210
00:58:37,800 --> 00:58:42,080
Speaker 4: nine percent a twenty nine percent chance there, frank And

1211
00:58:42,080 --> 00:58:46,040
Speaker 4: by the way, Frankenstein is the favorite at minus fourteen

1212
00:58:46,080 --> 00:58:49,520
Speaker 4: hundred and you agree, I think you agree that Frankenstein

1213
00:58:50,080 --> 00:58:51,160
Speaker 4: man is okay.

1214
00:58:52,120 --> 00:58:53,439
Speaker 2: And then, but.

1215
00:58:53,320 --> 00:58:57,080
Speaker 4: More importantly, the upset before all Quiet on the Western Front,

1216
00:58:57,080 --> 00:58:59,560
Speaker 4: it was also had to be to her Ryan Cooper

1217
00:59:00,080 --> 00:59:03,439
Speaker 4: Black Panther twenty eighteen. I had a bet on that too,

1218
00:59:03,960 --> 00:59:06,440
Speaker 4: going back to it here. So this is where I

1219
00:59:06,440 --> 00:59:12,360
Speaker 4: want sinners. When like cinematography, production design, we're getting long

1220
00:59:12,400 --> 00:59:14,480
Speaker 4: shot odds if we think it's this greater movie. These

1221
00:59:14,520 --> 00:59:17,000
Speaker 4: are the upsets that Centers is gonna make. I think

1222
00:59:17,320 --> 00:59:18,760
Speaker 4: even more likely than acting.

1223
00:59:18,920 --> 00:59:22,600
Speaker 1: What say you, yeah, you you you talked me into it.

1224
00:59:22,680 --> 00:59:27,680
Speaker 1: I'll co sign that fits into my all sinners, all

1225
00:59:27,680 --> 00:59:31,200
Speaker 1: sinners strategy. Uh so, yeah, I one hundred percent on

1226
00:59:31,240 --> 00:59:35,440
Speaker 1: board here with with that at at if you like that,

1227
00:59:35,880 --> 00:59:38,000
Speaker 1: and the one that you're about to mention as well.

1228
00:59:37,880 --> 00:59:41,720
Speaker 2: I like that best makeup and hairstyling sinners. Let's say

1229
00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:43,640
Speaker 2: eight hundred. Let's do this again.

1230
00:59:44,600 --> 00:59:47,000
Speaker 4: These are the awards I think if you think Sinners

1231
00:59:47,080 --> 00:59:48,640
Speaker 4: it's gonna be a sinner's night, or even if it's

1232
00:59:48,640 --> 00:59:50,600
Speaker 4: not going to be a sinner's night, this is still

1233
00:59:50,600 --> 00:59:53,200
Speaker 4: how Sinners might get to its, you know, four or

1234
00:59:53,280 --> 00:59:56,000
Speaker 4: five six awards that people think it's gonna win. These

1235
00:59:56,040 --> 01:00:00,000
Speaker 4: awards where it's like Frankenstein, Like what Frankenstein.

1236
01:00:00,120 --> 01:00:02,440
Speaker 2: Frankenstein like what it was cool?

1237
01:00:02,480 --> 01:00:05,240
Speaker 4: But like it's not like this major lock like it

1238
01:00:05,360 --> 01:00:07,760
Speaker 4: just looks like a movie that wins these type of awards.

1239
01:00:08,200 --> 01:00:12,720
Speaker 4: But interestingly enough make them a hairstyling. There's a god

1240
01:00:12,800 --> 01:00:16,040
Speaker 4: for that. They have awards for that. Sinners beat Frankenstein

1241
01:00:16,480 --> 01:00:20,000
Speaker 4: in the Makeup Award, at the Makeup Artists and Hairstyles

1242
01:00:20,000 --> 01:00:25,640
Speaker 4: Gold Awards, Sinners beat Frankenstein at the Hater Styling in

1243
01:00:25,720 --> 01:00:31,400
Speaker 4: the Makeup Artists and Hairstylist Award. So it's plus eight hundred.

1244
01:00:31,520 --> 01:00:34,479
Speaker 4: That doesn't seem right now. It's the number two most

1245
01:00:34,600 --> 01:00:37,720
Speaker 4: likely on gold Derby. The number two most likely on

1246
01:00:37,720 --> 01:00:40,280
Speaker 4: gold Derby in this category has won.

1247
01:00:40,200 --> 01:00:43,840
Speaker 2: Two of the last three years. So something's off here.

1248
01:00:44,560 --> 01:00:46,760
Speaker 4: The market just tends to get this wrong, and so

1249
01:00:47,600 --> 01:00:49,640
Speaker 4: I love this, This is probably my favorite one just

1250
01:00:49,640 --> 01:00:53,040
Speaker 4: because it's longer even than production design. But like everyone

1251
01:00:53,080 --> 01:00:55,200
Speaker 4: looks at Frankenstein, it's like, Okay, it's got to win something.

1252
01:00:56,280 --> 01:00:58,680
Speaker 4: It's gonna win makeup and hairstyling. But what if it

1253
01:00:58,800 --> 01:01:01,640
Speaker 4: just doesn't because it wasn't that good. It was just Frankenstein.

1254
01:01:01,880 --> 01:01:04,120
Speaker 4: It was Frankenstein made it was it was a fine

1255
01:01:04,160 --> 01:01:06,880
Speaker 4: rendition of Frankenstein. But this is a pretty strong year,

1256
01:01:07,040 --> 01:01:09,840
Speaker 4: Like if you think Sinners is a is a strong nominee,

1257
01:01:09,840 --> 01:01:12,760
Speaker 4: which I don't agree exactly on the acting front, but

1258
01:01:12,800 --> 01:01:16,640
Speaker 4: overall fair, like this is where it makes its upset.

1259
01:01:16,680 --> 01:01:18,720
Speaker 4: So yeah, plus eight hundred all day for center is

1260
01:01:18,720 --> 01:01:21,480
Speaker 4: probably my favorite bet catching designs six hundred seconds.

1261
01:01:21,480 --> 01:01:25,439
Speaker 1: I think fading Frankenstein is smart. These are really these

1262
01:01:25,440 --> 01:01:30,120
Speaker 1: are really sharp spots to find a decent plus money favorite,

1263
01:01:30,160 --> 01:01:33,320
Speaker 1: because again, when we see upsets in the oscars, they're

1264
01:01:33,360 --> 01:01:39,040
Speaker 1: oftentimes in these categories that odds makers can't really possibly

1265
01:01:39,160 --> 01:01:40,640
Speaker 1: be be as sharpen.

1266
01:01:41,320 --> 01:01:42,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, odds makers aren't.

1267
01:01:42,560 --> 01:01:45,120
Speaker 4: Probably they don't strike me as like visual people, so

1268
01:01:45,280 --> 01:01:47,360
Speaker 4: like it makes sense that like all the visual categories

1269
01:01:47,400 --> 01:01:50,080
Speaker 4: were just we're just hammering, like the best picture, like

1270
01:01:50,400 --> 01:01:52,600
Speaker 4: dark horse who like everyone wants to bet and all

1271
01:01:52,600 --> 01:01:55,000
Speaker 4: the popular categories that it might actually be overrated in

1272
01:01:55,320 --> 01:01:57,800
Speaker 4: and then like it'll like that that that's that's such

1273
01:01:57,800 --> 01:02:00,520
Speaker 4: an Oscar's day. It's like it'll get it'll get knocked

1274
01:02:00,560 --> 01:02:02,480
Speaker 4: out by like all the ones that like people we

1275
01:02:02,640 --> 01:02:05,000
Speaker 4: pissed off that Timmy still won and we're talking about

1276
01:02:05,000 --> 01:02:07,240
Speaker 4: the ballet thing and like all this and one battle

1277
01:02:07,240 --> 01:02:09,800
Speaker 4: will just win picture like ho hum. But then sinners

1278
01:02:09,840 --> 01:02:11,480
Speaker 4: we win all these like visual awards and beople like

1279
01:02:11,520 --> 01:02:14,439
Speaker 4: oh shit. So yeah, that's that's my angle here, and

1280
01:02:14,560 --> 01:02:16,760
Speaker 4: because we also like it for cinematography, so that's all

1281
01:02:16,760 --> 01:02:20,960
Speaker 4: the visuals essentially, and then the short's always my favorite

1282
01:02:21,000 --> 01:02:22,200
Speaker 4: to kind of get on this because I don't think

1283
01:02:22,200 --> 01:02:23,240
Speaker 4: anyone knows anything in this.

1284
01:02:23,520 --> 01:02:25,120
Speaker 3: This is your stage. This is your stage.

1285
01:02:25,200 --> 01:02:30,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, and some sometimes sometimes you bat like a thousand,

1286
01:02:30,480 --> 01:02:32,760
Speaker 4: sometimes you go for four on these. But this is

1287
01:02:32,760 --> 01:02:35,440
Speaker 4: where I go to Golder because they care about this.

1288
01:02:35,760 --> 01:02:36,920
Speaker 4: They watch these movies.

1289
01:02:37,040 --> 01:02:38,000
Speaker 2: I try.

1290
01:02:38,240 --> 01:02:41,120
Speaker 4: I watched some of them, the front Runners, but I

1291
01:02:41,160 --> 01:02:44,280
Speaker 4: trust Golder even more because they're usually watching all of them.

1292
01:02:44,320 --> 01:02:46,320
Speaker 4: You have real like they're the best data point on these,

1293
01:02:46,360 --> 01:02:48,360
Speaker 4: like you're not finding better data on these. I don't

1294
01:02:48,360 --> 01:02:51,440
Speaker 4: even know if you like like modeling out makes more

1295
01:02:51,480 --> 01:02:54,040
Speaker 4: sense than just trusting the experts here, who have still

1296
01:02:54,160 --> 01:02:57,360
Speaker 4: again been right with about you know, seventy eighty percent

1297
01:02:57,440 --> 01:03:01,240
Speaker 4: quip here. So best Animated short, Butterfly is even money.

1298
01:03:01,240 --> 01:03:04,560
Speaker 4: Gold Derby has it at seventy four percent implied minus

1299
01:03:04,600 --> 01:03:05,400
Speaker 4: two ninety one.

1300
01:03:05,560 --> 01:03:06,320
Speaker 2: Massive value.

1301
01:03:06,720 --> 01:03:09,920
Speaker 4: Butterfly for best Animated Short, Best Documentary short, All the

1302
01:03:09,960 --> 01:03:14,439
Speaker 4: Empty Rooms is minus one sixty nine. That's you know lies,

1303
01:03:14,560 --> 01:03:16,480
Speaker 4: that is that is, you know, juiced up.

1304
01:03:16,520 --> 01:03:19,280
Speaker 2: But gold Derby has it at eighty five percent.

1305
01:03:19,280 --> 01:03:22,240
Speaker 4: That should be minus five sixty three massive value again,

1306
01:03:22,360 --> 01:03:25,480
Speaker 4: so All the Empty Rooms for documentary short, and then

1307
01:03:25,520 --> 01:03:30,160
Speaker 4: Live Action short A Friend of Dorothy. Gold Derby has

1308
01:03:30,200 --> 01:03:33,360
Speaker 4: it as the favorite fifty three percent of gold Derby

1309
01:03:34,200 --> 01:03:37,040
Speaker 4: picks A Friend of Dorothy. You know what it's prices

1310
01:03:37,360 --> 01:03:42,080
Speaker 4: on draftings plus four hundred, So bang that best Live

1311
01:03:42,120 --> 01:03:44,600
Speaker 4: Action short, A Friend of Dorothy. Again, no one knows

1312
01:03:44,640 --> 01:03:47,880
Speaker 4: anything great value on on three of these, on all

1313
01:03:47,920 --> 01:03:51,760
Speaker 4: three of these short films here, So yeah, White love those,

1314
01:03:52,320 --> 01:03:53,120
Speaker 4: and I.

1315
01:03:53,120 --> 01:03:54,240
Speaker 2: Think I think that's it.

1316
01:03:54,560 --> 01:03:56,480
Speaker 4: Just any quick thought before get out of here, favorite

1317
01:03:56,600 --> 01:03:58,080
Speaker 4: favorite bet out of all the bets.

1318
01:03:58,760 --> 01:04:04,120
Speaker 1: I think my favorite bet at the price is the

1319
01:04:04,160 --> 01:04:06,840
Speaker 1: secret Agent for best International Feature. I hit a nice

1320
01:04:06,880 --> 01:04:09,120
Speaker 1: bet a couple of years ago. I'm best Animated Feature

1321
01:04:09,160 --> 01:04:11,280
Speaker 1: at the same price range, and that was also kind

1322
01:04:11,320 --> 01:04:13,200
Speaker 1: of vibes based, so.

1323
01:04:14,640 --> 01:04:15,360
Speaker 3: I'm right there.

1324
01:04:15,880 --> 01:04:20,040
Speaker 1: And best overall bet, most confident bet at the price

1325
01:04:20,120 --> 01:04:22,600
Speaker 1: is probably Amy Madigan for best Supporting Actress.

1326
01:04:23,040 --> 01:04:25,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, and then just to recap your other bets, you

1327
01:04:25,600 --> 01:04:32,480
Speaker 4: like Sinners for best Picture at a price, and for actor,

1328
01:04:32,520 --> 01:04:38,880
Speaker 4: you like NBJ Anything plus money, a long shot on

1329
01:04:38,880 --> 01:04:42,520
Speaker 4: on Mora and supporting you like Scars Guard.

1330
01:04:42,600 --> 01:04:47,320
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, we're a lockstep on most of these, aren't we.

1331
01:04:47,760 --> 01:04:49,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, Yeah, it's just it's just I'm fading Sinners a

1332
01:04:49,560 --> 01:04:53,520
Speaker 4: little harder. So I like Timmy for actor. I'm really

1333
01:04:53,560 --> 01:04:55,680
Speaker 4: confident in that just because I think he should be

1334
01:04:55,680 --> 01:04:59,439
Speaker 4: the rightful favorite and he's not. But best bets are

1335
01:04:59,720 --> 01:05:02,760
Speaker 4: Sinner for production design at six to one and for

1336
01:05:02,960 --> 01:05:06,160
Speaker 4: makeup and hair at eight to one also, and I

1337
01:05:06,160 --> 01:05:10,960
Speaker 4: think great value on the on Sinners in cinematography as well,

1338
01:05:11,000 --> 01:05:13,720
Speaker 4: because you're getting it as a long shot and it's

1339
01:05:13,720 --> 01:05:15,000
Speaker 4: the favorite on gold Derby.

1340
01:05:15,120 --> 01:05:16,400
Speaker 2: And again, if you can bet those.

1341
01:05:16,240 --> 01:05:19,720
Speaker 4: Shorts on dk value on All on Butterfly, all the

1342
01:05:19,760 --> 01:05:22,800
Speaker 4: empty rooms, and a friend of Dorothy That's Gonna do It.

1343
01:05:23,280 --> 01:05:24,320
Speaker 2: Thank you for joining me.

1344
01:05:24,360 --> 01:05:27,080
Speaker 4: Con always always a pledge to tell people where they

1345
01:05:27,160 --> 01:05:28,440
Speaker 4: can can find you.

1346
01:05:29,080 --> 01:05:32,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, find me in the action app ceo wit Church.

1347
01:05:33,120 --> 01:05:34,880
Speaker 1: If you're curious how to spell that, it's just cow

1348
01:05:34,960 --> 01:05:38,120
Speaker 1: hit Church. I'm also over on Blue Sky where I'm

1349
01:05:38,160 --> 01:05:41,520
Speaker 1: talking nonsense and I write about the movies I watch.

1350
01:05:41,840 --> 01:05:46,280
Speaker 1: I am a film critic of sorts. Go on substack

1351
01:05:46,320 --> 01:05:48,080
Speaker 1: and look for a want to watch If you ever

1352
01:05:48,120 --> 01:05:50,200
Speaker 1: want to want to want to read what my thoughts

1353
01:05:50,240 --> 01:05:52,320
Speaker 1: on movies beyond just from a betting perspective.

1354
01:05:52,600 --> 01:05:53,480
Speaker 2: I am Chris Raybon.

1355
01:05:53,520 --> 01:05:55,880
Speaker 4: You can find me at Chris Raybun on Twitter and

1356
01:05:56,040 --> 01:05:58,880
Speaker 4: on the action app That's Gonna Do It. For the

1357
01:05:58,880 --> 01:06:04,280
Speaker 4: Action Network podcast Oscurs twenty twenty six, presented by DraftKings,

1358
01:06:04,360 --> 01:06:14,520
Speaker 4: Let's Get This Money. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1359
01:06:14,920 --> 01:06:17,760
Speaker 4: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.

1360
01:06:18,040 --> 01:06:20,680
Speaker 4: Help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1361
01:06:20,720 --> 01:06:21,520
Speaker 4: hundred Gambler