1
00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:04,720
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. I'm just about that Action Boss.

2
00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:13,720
Speaker 1: All right. Here we got growing up. I'm sitting up

3
00:00:13,720 --> 00:00:17,960
Speaker 1: to cash stops. We'll see the most gamblers when they

4
00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,200
Speaker 1: go to gamble, they go to win. That's incredible, Big bank,

5
00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:26,000
Speaker 1: small banks. I like to make money. All right, this

6
00:00:26,200 --> 00:00:28,120
Speaker 1: is the ultimate kabinity.

7
00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:32,760
Speaker 2: You want to pull and we are underway.

8
00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:36,879
Speaker 1: What's up, everybody? Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm

9
00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:40,400
Speaker 1: your host, Chris Raybond. This is our NFL Divisional Round

10
00:00:40,640 --> 00:00:44,440
Speaker 1: betting preview. Today we're gonna build our Divisional Round six

11
00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:46,440
Speaker 1: pack of bets with the help of my co host,

12
00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:51,880
Speaker 1: the Prime Minister, A degenerate nation, stucky, stuck happy Division Round,

13
00:00:51,920 --> 00:00:54,640
Speaker 1: best best weekend in sports in my opinion, How you doing?

14
00:00:55,040 --> 00:00:58,520
Speaker 2: That's great weekend. A national championship on Monday as well.

15
00:00:58,960 --> 00:01:01,560
Speaker 2: That podcast. If you're in the college, Big Bets on

16
00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:04,959
Speaker 2: Campus will be out tomorrow night. Won some pennies on

17
00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:08,600
Speaker 2: wild Card weekend, but you got super unlucky in the

18
00:01:08,600 --> 00:01:11,840
Speaker 2: six pack with the Chargers under which loses on a

19
00:01:12,040 --> 00:01:16,840
Speaker 2: blocked extra point returned ridiculous with the I mean a

20
00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:20,320
Speaker 2: pick six, and I mean that was brutal, But yeah,

21
00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:22,880
Speaker 2: I mean I had some easy winners, the Buffalo Under

22
00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:28,440
Speaker 2: the Rams, the Texans, and then just what ruin the

23
00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:31,760
Speaker 2: weekend was the Bucks just sneak the ball, they can't

24
00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:34,560
Speaker 2: get the first down and they fumble it. And credit

25
00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:37,119
Speaker 2: to Jade, Denys was really poised throughout the game, and

26
00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:39,280
Speaker 2: the Commanders did it again. The one that hurt the

27
00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:42,280
Speaker 2: most that was the Packers first half. I also bet

28
00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:44,800
Speaker 2: him plus eleven and a half live. I bet him

29
00:01:44,959 --> 00:01:47,720
Speaker 2: and they lost by twelve. Oh I got yeah, I

30
00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:49,960
Speaker 2: bet him. And of course the Washington Banks in a

31
00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:52,600
Speaker 2: thirty eight yarder, and brandonc Manus's never missed a postseason

32
00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:54,720
Speaker 2: kick in his life. He misses a thirty eight yarder,

33
00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:57,560
Speaker 2: which costs me money in the game. The whole premise

34
00:01:57,600 --> 00:01:59,720
Speaker 2: of it was the Eagles offense not doing anything in

35
00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:03,240
Speaker 2: the first tap and the Packers fumble the opening kick

36
00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:07,040
Speaker 2: and we march on. I'm excited to break these games down.

37
00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:09,360
Speaker 1: So we're gonna go through all these games. We got

38
00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:11,959
Speaker 1: picks for each one, fifty three, forty eight. You're pret

39
00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:14,720
Speaker 1: quot so you good Night's come back here. Just want

40
00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:17,519
Speaker 1: to remind all our listeners. If you're watching or listening

41
00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:20,360
Speaker 1: on your phone and you want to instantly tail any

42
00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:23,680
Speaker 1: of today's picks, go to the episode description. We've got

43
00:02:23,919 --> 00:02:26,200
Speaker 1: DK links for all of these picks. If you click

44
00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:30,480
Speaker 1: those links on your mobile device, your DraftKings app will

45
00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:34,919
Speaker 1: open with the bet slip for that pick. It's very,

46
00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:39,120
Speaker 1: very convenient, a great way to tail right away and

47
00:02:39,200 --> 00:02:41,120
Speaker 1: not miss the best lines.

48
00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:53,480
Speaker 2: Thursday for action, let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

49
00:02:56,960 --> 00:02:59,520
Speaker 1: All right, So for my first pick in the first

50
00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:04,200
Speaker 1: overall the divisional round six pack, I'm going with Dalton

51
00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:08,120
Speaker 1: Schultz over three and a half receptions. This is the

52
00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:12,440
Speaker 1: Texans at the Chiefs. Chiefs eight and a half point favorites,

53
00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:16,520
Speaker 1: the total forty one and a half. And looking at

54
00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:21,240
Speaker 1: this matchup, I really don't know where c J. Stroud

55
00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:24,880
Speaker 1: is going to find open receivers. Because we saw how

56
00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:28,480
Speaker 1: much he struggled for that first half against the Chargers.

57
00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:32,480
Speaker 1: You know this matchup is a lot tougher. We like

58
00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:36,520
Speaker 1: the Texans last week because the Chargers play some zone,

59
00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:40,040
Speaker 1: they don't get as much pressure, especially on the interior.

60
00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:44,360
Speaker 1: Chiefs they can play man coverage. They play it at

61
00:03:44,400 --> 00:03:46,400
Speaker 1: one of the highest rates in the league, seventh most.

62
00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:50,400
Speaker 1: That'll probably go up because it looks like Jalen Watson

63
00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:54,880
Speaker 1: is coming back, and he is there one of the

64
00:03:54,920 --> 00:03:58,200
Speaker 1: top graded man corners in the league, and he gives

65
00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:01,800
Speaker 1: them the ability to man up all across the board

66
00:04:01,800 --> 00:04:05,440
Speaker 1: pretty much. So Dalton Schultz is pretty the only guy

67
00:04:05,520 --> 00:04:09,560
Speaker 1: who I could see consistently being an option for CJ. Stroud,

68
00:04:09,560 --> 00:04:11,240
Speaker 1: because I think you're gonna have to have, you know,

69
00:04:11,320 --> 00:04:16,160
Speaker 1: mix and pass blocking. You're gonna Nico Collins. See Steve

70
00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:19,720
Speaker 1: Spagnola is excellent at taking away number one receivers and

71
00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:22,640
Speaker 1: now you're giving him almost a month to prepare. You

72
00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:26,520
Speaker 1: just cut Deontay Johnson, who was getting open the most

73
00:04:26,560 --> 00:04:29,520
Speaker 1: of anyone not named Nico Collins, but he just couldn't

74
00:04:29,600 --> 00:04:32,120
Speaker 1: keep his mouth shut, started pouting after a win, which

75
00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:34,039
Speaker 1: is you know you've been on a team for a week.

76
00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:37,720
Speaker 1: That's not gonna cut it. And Cade Stover your other

77
00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:41,560
Speaker 1: tight end. He went on ir with a collarbone injury.

78
00:04:41,600 --> 00:04:44,240
Speaker 1: He caught four passes on four targets last week, and

79
00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:47,960
Speaker 1: when Stover's been out, Dalton Schultz's route rate has increased

80
00:04:47,960 --> 00:04:51,600
Speaker 1: to about eighty seven percent. He's usually around seventy eight

81
00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:54,920
Speaker 1: to eighty percent, So that's gonna give him a couple

82
00:04:55,080 --> 00:04:58,000
Speaker 1: more routes during this game, probably, and Kansas City gives

83
00:04:58,080 --> 00:05:02,400
Speaker 1: up the fifth most schedule Justice targets to uh to

84
00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:05,000
Speaker 1: the tight end position because they're very good at funneling

85
00:05:05,279 --> 00:05:07,760
Speaker 1: action away from wide receivers, which I think is gonna

86
00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:09,840
Speaker 1: happen in this matchup. And I think c J. Stroud

87
00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:12,640
Speaker 1: is not gonna have time to really look at you know,

88
00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:15,160
Speaker 1: look down field, so there's probably gonna be some first

89
00:05:15,200 --> 00:05:18,279
Speaker 1: read more first replays from Schultz than usual. And we

90
00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:21,400
Speaker 1: kind of saw this a similar uh you know things

91
00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:23,240
Speaker 1: take place in the first matchup. I don't know if

92
00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:26,400
Speaker 1: it was by design or because you know, Tank Dell

93
00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:29,520
Speaker 1: got hurt midway through. We saw don't Chultz catch five

94
00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,440
Speaker 1: balls on eight targets with a touchdown in that game.

95
00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:34,680
Speaker 1: So now you've got no Dell, you got no Digs,

96
00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:38,919
Speaker 1: you got no Stover and Metchi the cats out of

97
00:05:38,920 --> 00:05:41,440
Speaker 1: the bag with him. He got eight targets last week,

98
00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:44,320
Speaker 1: So now you're probably gonna be able. You're gonna probably

99
00:05:44,320 --> 00:05:46,719
Speaker 1: pay more attention to him as well. So I think

100
00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:49,680
Speaker 1: this sets up as a Schultz game, UH for c J.

101
00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:52,800
Speaker 1: Stroud because you know, look across the board, all the

102
00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:56,039
Speaker 1: other wide receivers struggle versus man more than zone. But

103
00:05:56,120 --> 00:05:58,520
Speaker 1: I do expect a lot of man Robert Woods zero

104
00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:02,240
Speaker 1: point oh two routes yards per route against man coverage.

105
00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:07,000
Speaker 1: And you have Mechi at point nine and Hutchinson is

106
00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:09,520
Speaker 1: barely at half a yard. So I mean, this is

107
00:06:09,600 --> 00:06:12,280
Speaker 1: just going to be a struggle for this entire Texan offense.

108
00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:14,960
Speaker 1: I think I think the Chiefs are going to be

109
00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:17,960
Speaker 1: a little bit more dynamic than then. We kind of

110
00:06:17,960 --> 00:06:20,360
Speaker 1: remember them the last time they were, you know, on

111
00:06:20,400 --> 00:06:23,800
Speaker 1: our TV screens because they've they've had a long time off.

112
00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:27,600
Speaker 1: All their guys are healthy, you know, Pacheco, Marcus Brown's

113
00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:30,320
Speaker 1: had time to acclimate. Hopkins might not be on as

114
00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:31,920
Speaker 1: much of a snap count because I heard there was

115
00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:33,760
Speaker 1: something to do with like the comp pick that they

116
00:06:33,920 --> 00:06:36,279
Speaker 1: might have been limiting him for that. So a lot

117
00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:39,200
Speaker 1: of different things with this Chief offense that I think

118
00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:42,000
Speaker 1: they could push it a little more than usual for

119
00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:44,880
Speaker 1: you know, even for them, And we start to see

120
00:06:44,880 --> 00:06:47,400
Speaker 1: that late in the year. They put up twenty seven

121
00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:53,599
Speaker 1: on Houston, then they put up twenty nine on Pittsburgh

122
00:06:53,680 --> 00:06:56,240
Speaker 1: in to close out the year with their starters. So

123
00:06:56,720 --> 00:06:59,000
Speaker 1: even though this is a low total, game. I do

124
00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:01,360
Speaker 1: think Kansas City is going to get a lead here.

125
00:07:01,400 --> 00:07:03,479
Speaker 1: I think Kansas City is probably gonna be better in

126
00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:06,480
Speaker 1: the past game than the Chargers were because they're gonna

127
00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:09,000
Speaker 1: have time to prepare. I do worry a little bit

128
00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:11,320
Speaker 1: still about you know, Kansas City. O ye, depending on

129
00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:14,560
Speaker 1: what they do with Humphrey and Toney. But this is

130
00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:17,720
Speaker 1: just a tough matchup for Houston because you got Jones

131
00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:20,520
Speaker 1: coming on the with the interior pressure. Like the tackles

132
00:07:20,600 --> 00:07:23,200
Speaker 1: are gonna give up pressure anyway, but like the interior

133
00:07:23,240 --> 00:07:27,280
Speaker 1: pressure is like this, Uston interior line is very bad,

134
00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:30,440
Speaker 1: pretty much their biggest weakness. So I don't like the

135
00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:32,360
Speaker 1: matchup for Uston's offense ago, I don't think they're gonna

136
00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:34,840
Speaker 1: be able to run it. So I think you're gonna

137
00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:37,160
Speaker 1: see a lot of Schultz dump offs, whether it's early

138
00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:39,840
Speaker 1: in garbage time or a mixture of both. So going

139
00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:42,600
Speaker 1: Schultz over three and a half receptions funny enough.

140
00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:45,560
Speaker 2: I was actually if you didn't go with Schultz, I

141
00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:48,720
Speaker 2: was gonna go Schultz over receiving yards. I'm gonna play

142
00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:51,840
Speaker 2: this as well, but I like Schultz over receding yards.

143
00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:55,200
Speaker 2: Even though I listened to your Fantasy Flex episode with Kerner,

144
00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:57,320
Speaker 2: which is always a musclesten, especially during pluff here, and

145
00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:00,120
Speaker 2: he hates Schultz this week, so I was surprised as

146
00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:00,960
Speaker 2: he went with Schultz.

147
00:08:02,320 --> 00:08:04,480
Speaker 1: But it's a funny story about that. I want to

148
00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:06,320
Speaker 1: let Sean tell it on the next flax Good What

149
00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:07,200
Speaker 1: do you like about them?

150
00:08:07,320 --> 00:08:10,760
Speaker 2: I dug deep here, and I really like the matchup.

151
00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:12,240
Speaker 2: I mean, as soon as he went out, like you

152
00:08:12,280 --> 00:08:14,240
Speaker 2: said with Dell went out in the first matchup, I said,

153
00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:17,880
Speaker 2: I tweeted out getting ready to get targeted Schultz because

154
00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:20,680
Speaker 2: that's what's going to happen in this particular matchup. So

155
00:08:20,720 --> 00:08:22,920
Speaker 2: I like over yards end up your over three and

156
00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:25,840
Speaker 2: a half catches. A tight end has gone over forty

157
00:08:25,920 --> 00:08:29,760
Speaker 2: yards in twelve of seventeen games first Kansas City excluding

158
00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:32,600
Speaker 2: Week eighteen. That's just one tight end, not total production.

159
00:08:32,720 --> 00:08:36,120
Speaker 2: Now you have Kates over on IR, A tight end's

160
00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:37,520
Speaker 2: gone over three and a half catches for what it's

161
00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:41,120
Speaker 2: worth in eleven of seventeen games, tight ends on average

162
00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:44,120
Speaker 2: against Kansas City six catches on close to eight targets

163
00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:48,640
Speaker 2: for just under seventy yards per game. That's their primary

164
00:08:48,640 --> 00:08:53,160
Speaker 2: weakness on defense, and as you mentioned, Schultz five for

165
00:08:53,160 --> 00:08:55,120
Speaker 2: forty five on eight targets in the first half, so

166
00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:58,040
Speaker 2: and they're likely to be playing from behind. And I

167
00:08:58,080 --> 00:09:02,320
Speaker 2: think the other thing to keep in mind is if

168
00:09:02,360 --> 00:09:09,360
Speaker 2: you look at if you look at what Stroud did

169
00:09:09,440 --> 00:09:15,079
Speaker 2: from week twelve on, I mean, this is a team

170
00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:18,880
Speaker 2: early down pass rate weeks one to eleven fifty two

171
00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:24,440
Speaker 2: point seven percent early down pass rate since week twelve

172
00:09:25,280 --> 00:09:29,240
Speaker 2: sixty three point two percent, third in the entire NFL,

173
00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:30,640
Speaker 2: which is like what a lot of people have been

174
00:09:30,640 --> 00:09:33,480
Speaker 2: clamoring for seventy one percent in the wildcard round. And

175
00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:38,520
Speaker 2: this is removing game state when the win probability is

176
00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:40,680
Speaker 2: greater than eighty percent for either team, So we're moving

177
00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:43,880
Speaker 2: garbage time. They've gone from like fifty percent early down

178
00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:48,000
Speaker 2: pass right to you know, sixty three sixty four percent

179
00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:51,160
Speaker 2: since week twelve. Their offensive line is also in a

180
00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:54,800
Speaker 2: little better shape than it was in that game against

181
00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:58,080
Speaker 2: Kansas City, because in that game against Kansas City, they

182
00:09:58,120 --> 00:09:59,600
Speaker 2: had a couple offensive line and go down. You had

183
00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:01,800
Speaker 2: Green there, they had Dell go down. I mean, they

184
00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:05,240
Speaker 2: were cooking the Chiefs defense before they lost Dell. In

185
00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:07,920
Speaker 2: some offensive linemen. They also had some horrible calls go

186
00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:11,480
Speaker 2: against them. And this isn't like Kansas City Rep's favorite kansasity.

187
00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:13,640
Speaker 2: But just like there was a couple offensive pass interference calls,

188
00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:17,880
Speaker 2: one on each way that was really bad. So yeah,

189
00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:20,600
Speaker 2: I think Schultz you're gonna get. You're probably gonna get

190
00:10:20,600 --> 00:10:23,199
Speaker 2: a lot of two high looks. Strouds really struggled against them.

191
00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:26,000
Speaker 2: He's gonna be under pressure a lot. You're probably gonna

192
00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:30,640
Speaker 2: get McDuffie on Collins a lot again, And who else

193
00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:33,920
Speaker 2: are you trusting? Like you mentioned Woods, he can't get

194
00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:35,520
Speaker 2: separation Like he's a guy. I'll get you a couple

195
00:10:35,520 --> 00:10:38,280
Speaker 2: of first downs a game against Owne. Just savvy guy,

196
00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:41,040
Speaker 2: but not it's not gonna get any separation against man.

197
00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:43,720
Speaker 2: And I don't think Mix is gonna have much success

198
00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:47,439
Speaker 2: running against his Kansas City defense. And yeah, so I

199
00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:48,920
Speaker 2: think they're gonna have to throw a lout. They're throwing

200
00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:50,880
Speaker 2: a lot more on early downs, and I think Schultz

201
00:10:51,400 --> 00:10:53,720
Speaker 2: is gonna be the beneficiary against Kansas City defense. That

202
00:10:53,720 --> 00:10:56,040
Speaker 2: that's kind of their one week area where you can

203
00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:59,040
Speaker 2: exploit them is to the tight end. And you mentioned

204
00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:02,520
Speaker 2: Mixon staying in the help passback. You don't want Schultz

205
00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:05,480
Speaker 2: doing that, Like Schultz is a miserable pass blocker. He

206
00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:09,400
Speaker 2: also like a little shoulder injury, Like he's he's going

207
00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:12,040
Speaker 2: out in routes and he's gonna be the checkdown guy.

208
00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:14,200
Speaker 2: This game is difficult for me to Handycock. I'm probably

209
00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:15,640
Speaker 2: gonna be on the on the Texans plus A and

210
00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:18,679
Speaker 2: F just because I'm I'm like a tad under seven.

211
00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:21,360
Speaker 2: That's assuming a big bump for this Kansas City offense.

212
00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:23,480
Speaker 2: They're gonna be fully rested. Now, you got to assume

213
00:11:23,480 --> 00:11:27,800
Speaker 2: that Kelsey, who is what seventy plus yards receiving in

214
00:11:27,880 --> 00:11:30,360
Speaker 2: like thirteen or fourteen straight games and five plus catches,

215
00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:31,520
Speaker 2: I mean it's insane.

216
00:11:31,600 --> 00:11:34,400
Speaker 1: In playoffs yeah in five yeah, yeah.

217
00:11:34,240 --> 00:11:36,079
Speaker 2: I mean I should we just we should have just

218
00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:37,079
Speaker 2: taken his props.

219
00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:39,560
Speaker 1: For well, there is five and a half. So I mean,

220
00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:41,040
Speaker 1: with all the though I.

221
00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:43,760
Speaker 2: Think he's seventy yards in all those games.

222
00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:45,640
Speaker 1: My vine is still closer to like fifty fifty to

223
00:11:45,640 --> 00:11:47,679
Speaker 1: fifty five. So it's it's like the books are kind

224
00:11:47,679 --> 00:11:50,280
Speaker 1: of priced like Travis Kelce. You know, you know it's

225
00:11:50,280 --> 00:11:52,440
Speaker 1: gonna be inflated as Travis Kelsey like that.

226
00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:54,320
Speaker 2: But we said it every time and he still goes over.

227
00:11:54,440 --> 00:11:58,520
Speaker 2: But I do think the Chiefs offense might be underrated,

228
00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:00,520
Speaker 2: but it's probably just gonna be like a lot of

229
00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:03,800
Speaker 2: Mahomes underneath stuff like just paper cutting them the death

230
00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:06,560
Speaker 2: down the field, because I do think the Texans defense

231
00:12:06,600 --> 00:12:08,679
Speaker 2: is getting disrespected here. What I worry about is just

232
00:12:08,720 --> 00:12:10,400
Speaker 2: their offense, like the pressure they give up, They're not

233
00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:12,199
Speaker 2: gonna be able to run it. How much can Nico

234
00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:14,400
Speaker 2: Collins do with all the attention on him? Dome team

235
00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:17,560
Speaker 2: going outdoors in the freezing cold and Mahomes is six

236
00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:20,920
Speaker 2: to zero in the divisional round, sixteen touchdowns, no interceptions,

237
00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:23,480
Speaker 2: one hundred and sixteen pass rate in competing over seventy

238
00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:25,760
Speaker 2: percent of his passes. But it's three and three against

239
00:12:25,800 --> 00:12:27,959
Speaker 2: the spread as a favorite of six or more points,

240
00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:30,960
Speaker 2: ten and two against spread all other playoff games, Stroud's

241
00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:32,960
Speaker 2: been good as a dog. They did just go to

242
00:12:33,040 --> 00:12:36,920
Speaker 2: Kansas City, which should help with like familiarity in that atmosphere.

243
00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:39,400
Speaker 2: So I think the line is just a little too high.

244
00:12:39,440 --> 00:12:41,319
Speaker 2: But am I worried about just like the Texans offense

245
00:12:41,400 --> 00:12:46,000
Speaker 2: just does absolutely nothing. Yeah, a bit, But I think

246
00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:48,360
Speaker 2: in order for them to have any chance, Schultz has

247
00:12:48,440 --> 00:12:51,080
Speaker 2: to clear these numbers and for what it's worth, by

248
00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:53,680
Speaker 2: the way, eighteen straight favorites of over a touchdown of

249
00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:58,479
Speaker 2: one straight up in the playoffs. We haven't seen multiple

250
00:12:58,840 --> 00:13:01,520
Speaker 2: favorites of seven or more point sweep against the spread

251
00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:04,000
Speaker 2: in the divisional round since two thousand and one. Sixteen

252
00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:07,120
Speaker 2: straight instances were at least one dog covered, and home

253
00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:08,840
Speaker 2: team's coming off the buy in the division round have

254
00:13:08,880 --> 00:13:11,199
Speaker 2: not been great against the spread thirty three forty two

255
00:13:11,200 --> 00:13:14,199
Speaker 2: and one against the spread forty four percent, seventeen twenty

256
00:13:14,200 --> 00:13:16,360
Speaker 2: four and one as a favorite of seven or more

257
00:13:16,400 --> 00:13:19,480
Speaker 2: points forty two percent. But yeah, I just think this

258
00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:23,720
Speaker 2: line is a little too high for total this low.

259
00:13:24,080 --> 00:13:26,959
Speaker 2: The Texas might have the best defense left in the playoffs,

260
00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:29,840
Speaker 2: you would argue them or the Eagles. But on the

261
00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:32,760
Speaker 2: flip side of the Chiefs offense might be underrated because yeah,

262
00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:33,920
Speaker 2: of all the pieces they have.

263
00:13:33,960 --> 00:13:35,400
Speaker 1: I think it is and they're not gonna be They're

264
00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:37,439
Speaker 1: not gonna be able to run that well. But what

265
00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:40,319
Speaker 1: they do, what they they what they usually do in

266
00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:44,160
Speaker 1: the playoffs is they go super pass heavy but high

267
00:13:44,200 --> 00:13:46,920
Speaker 1: percentage stuff. And what they're gonna be able to do

268
00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:52,160
Speaker 1: now with Marky's Brown, Hopkins and worthy as your three receivers,

269
00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:54,559
Speaker 1: You got Kelsey, you still got Gray if you need

270
00:13:54,600 --> 00:13:56,880
Speaker 1: to kind of help out on you know, Chip on

271
00:13:56,920 --> 00:13:59,160
Speaker 1: the on the edge, and so you could throw him

272
00:13:59,200 --> 00:14:01,000
Speaker 1: in there. And then you got three running backs that

273
00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:03,400
Speaker 1: you can rotate in. So like this, the skill guys

274
00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:06,720
Speaker 1: are fine, healthier now too. Yeah, the skill guys are fine.

275
00:14:06,800 --> 00:14:10,000
Speaker 1: You still got a good interior line. Uh and Mahomes.

276
00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:12,199
Speaker 1: Mahomes will gets you through the rest. And guys are

277
00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:14,319
Speaker 1: gonna come open quicker because now you've got more speed

278
00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:16,200
Speaker 1: on the field. You got Worthy, who can go to

279
00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:18,360
Speaker 1: the slot. You got Brown, and all their guys play

280
00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:20,480
Speaker 1: every position at receiver. That's another thing about the Chiefs.

281
00:14:20,480 --> 00:14:22,440
Speaker 1: They all can go in the slot, they all can motion.

282
00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:24,320
Speaker 1: And I think Worthy is going to be a really

283
00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:26,720
Speaker 1: big factor in this game because, uh, you know, we

284
00:14:26,760 --> 00:14:29,320
Speaker 1: saw the Chargers and in Mconkey, I mean that was

285
00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:31,880
Speaker 1: there as we predicted, that was their only source of offense.

286
00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:34,440
Speaker 1: And I think Worthy's going to be able to kind

287
00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:36,720
Speaker 1: of go on the slot, get the matchups away from

288
00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:39,520
Speaker 1: you know, some of those other Houston corners.

289
00:14:39,560 --> 00:14:41,240
Speaker 2: And I think if you're the Texans, but you have

290
00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:43,600
Speaker 2: to do you have to just trust her out Yeah,

291
00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:47,400
Speaker 2: you're not going to run out, so uh no, you

292
00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:48,720
Speaker 2: just have that has to be your game plan. I

293
00:14:48,760 --> 00:14:51,080
Speaker 2: think you have to spread them out even though your

294
00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:55,560
Speaker 2: weapons are limited, right, Like you just use Schultz Collins

295
00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:58,200
Speaker 2: and then your mishmash of other receivers spread them out.

296
00:14:58,840 --> 00:15:00,880
Speaker 2: And Strout has been great quick pessing, but that's what

297
00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:03,320
Speaker 2: you're gonna need here, quick pat and then he's got

298
00:15:03,320 --> 00:15:05,960
Speaker 2: to use his legs when needed. But the biggest key

299
00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:11,360
Speaker 2: is the defense has to win this game. And the

300
00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:15,760
Speaker 2: Texans defense is capable of creating, having.

301
00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:18,040
Speaker 1: Holmes and like the best supporting cast he's had in

302
00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:18,640
Speaker 1: like years.

303
00:15:18,960 --> 00:15:22,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, but where I'm getting to is, and this is

304
00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:24,720
Speaker 2: a parallel situations Houston, because Stroud is much more likely

305
00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:29,800
Speaker 2: to turn it over. Here. You have to turn it

306
00:15:29,840 --> 00:15:33,000
Speaker 2: over now. The Chief's been getting turnovers lately, they haven't

307
00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:36,960
Speaker 2: and Mahomes hasn't turned it over forever. Texan's got to

308
00:15:36,960 --> 00:15:40,120
Speaker 2: win the turnover battle, get a turnover early, and just

309
00:15:40,200 --> 00:15:42,640
Speaker 2: keep this low scoring. So it should be an interesting game.

310
00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:44,360
Speaker 2: I'll probably on Texans just because I mean, this line

311
00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:47,400
Speaker 2: is three three weeks ago they lost Dell and Ward

312
00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:49,800
Speaker 2: since they also got all shy Year back and other

313
00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:51,240
Speaker 2: got bat they throw off to the lines to be

314
00:15:51,280 --> 00:15:53,360
Speaker 2: in better shape getting out to eight and a half.

315
00:15:53,400 --> 00:15:55,920
Speaker 2: I know the buye, I know Chiefs are healthier, their

316
00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:58,760
Speaker 2: offense might be u narrated, but I think I'll have

317
00:15:58,760 --> 00:16:01,040
Speaker 2: to take eight and a half here. But definitely some concerns,

318
00:16:01,040 --> 00:16:05,120
Speaker 2: but love Schultz For my first pick and the second

319
00:16:05,120 --> 00:16:09,440
Speaker 2: overall of the divisional round six pack. I'm going with

320
00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:14,440
Speaker 2: Sam Laporta over forty eight and a half reception yards

321
00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:19,320
Speaker 2: for the Detroit Lions. This is for the Lions Commander's

322
00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:22,640
Speaker 2: game on Saturday, eight pm Eastern on Fox. Lions nine

323
00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:25,200
Speaker 2: and a half point favorite total fifty five and a half.

324
00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:27,360
Speaker 2: It is super high total for PLAYFF game, but historically

325
00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:31,760
Speaker 2: these really high totals indoors in the playoffs have gone over.

326
00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:36,040
Speaker 2: I don't have a strong feel for the side or

327
00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:38,840
Speaker 2: total in this game because what I think it's probably

328
00:16:38,840 --> 00:16:43,880
Speaker 2: going to come down to is fourth down variants. I mean,

329
00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:46,120
Speaker 2: these are two of the most aggressive fourth down teams

330
00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:49,800
Speaker 2: in the NFL, Commanders number one in fourth down EPA

331
00:16:49,880 --> 00:16:51,720
Speaker 2: of any team over the past twenty years. How much

332
00:16:51,720 --> 00:16:53,960
Speaker 2: longer can they get away with it? They're also not

333
00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:57,200
Speaker 2: that explosive of a passing team in general, So like

334
00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:00,840
Speaker 2: the Lions can play their aggressive man and Daniels hasn't

335
00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:02,960
Speaker 2: been as good against man. He hasn't been great against

336
00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:05,600
Speaker 2: the blitz. Like Mclaurin's just gonna have to go off Diami.

337
00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:07,320
Speaker 2: Brown's gonna have to like they're gonna have to he's

338
00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:09,639
Speaker 2: and it's gonna come down to Daniel's legs. And but

339
00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:11,320
Speaker 2: I don't know how Washington get stops. I mean their

340
00:17:11,359 --> 00:17:14,400
Speaker 2: D is bad across the board. I mean your twenty

341
00:17:14,440 --> 00:17:19,320
Speaker 2: fourth rush success rate, twenty seventh rush EPA. I I

342
00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:21,840
Speaker 2: don't know. In fact, the Lion's been so good first

343
00:17:21,840 --> 00:17:24,000
Speaker 2: half against the spread. Place will be zoo and maybe

344
00:17:24,040 --> 00:17:26,200
Speaker 2: a slightly into Lions first half at like minus six.

345
00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:28,679
Speaker 2: But fourth down Barrens is gonna play a huge role

346
00:17:28,720 --> 00:17:31,040
Speaker 2: in this game, and it wouldn't be surprised, like the

347
00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:35,199
Speaker 2: Commanders are a backdoor chance. But I don't think this is

348
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:39,960
Speaker 2: like the ideal offense to beat the Lions. Flawed, you know,

349
00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:44,000
Speaker 2: aggressive cover one, blitzing D. But we'll see elite they

350
00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:47,600
Speaker 2: do struggle with mobile quarterbacks. McLaurin, who just has to

351
00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:52,560
Speaker 2: go crazy here. But the reason I like Laporta here

352
00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:56,920
Speaker 2: for a number of reasons, but Jared Goff is gonna

353
00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:58,840
Speaker 2: face a lot of man coverage here. He's elite verse

354
00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:02,280
Speaker 2: man coverage this year. He's gonna have time to throw.

355
00:18:02,720 --> 00:18:05,399
Speaker 2: Laporta is dominant against man coverage even go back to

356
00:18:05,440 --> 00:18:07,520
Speaker 2: college and college at two point seven two yards per

357
00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:12,280
Speaker 2: rout room, which is absurdity. He's also a huge red

358
00:18:12,359 --> 00:18:14,280
Speaker 2: zone target yere. I like his reception yards over I'm

359
00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:17,040
Speaker 2: probably gonna play them anytime touchdown. There's a lot of

360
00:18:17,080 --> 00:18:20,200
Speaker 2: options there. But the line should score here. But Washington

361
00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:24,359
Speaker 2: twenty six dboa verse tight ends their third worst in

362
00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:27,280
Speaker 2: the NFL in defending the middle of the field, and

363
00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:30,960
Speaker 2: Laporta is really coming on end of the year, and

364
00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:34,520
Speaker 2: I don't think the market's fully adjusted for that. He

365
00:18:34,600 --> 00:18:38,160
Speaker 2: wasn't healthy for most of the year, and Campbell has

366
00:18:38,200 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 2: mentioned that. Now you look at his last five games,

367
00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:43,120
Speaker 2: by the way, before his last five has gone over

368
00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:46,359
Speaker 2: his reception this reception yards number and receptions. But if

369
00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:48,919
Speaker 2: you look at the first eleven games this year, he

370
00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:53,800
Speaker 2: had thirty one catches on forty four targets for three

371
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,679
Speaker 2: ninety one. Last five games twenty nine on thirty nine

372
00:18:57,680 --> 00:18:59,800
Speaker 2: targets for three thirty five. So his average on the

373
00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:03,560
Speaker 2: first eleven games two point eight catches on four targets

374
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:08,840
Speaker 2: thirty six yards, last five games five point eight catches

375
00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:12,920
Speaker 2: on seven point eight targets for sixty seven yards eighteen

376
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:15,520
Speaker 2: game pace. He just look the first eleven about fifty

377
00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:18,040
Speaker 2: catches six hundred and thirty nine yards, his eighteen game

378
00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:20,840
Speaker 2: pace over the last five one hundred and five catches

379
00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:23,680
Speaker 2: twelve hundred yards. And for what it's worth, his last

380
00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:26,119
Speaker 2: two playoff games last year, he had nine catches on

381
00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:30,000
Speaker 2: eleven targets in both of those games. I also think

382
00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:36,480
Speaker 2: that the Commanders their numbers against tight ends are bad,

383
00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:41,520
Speaker 2: but I think they're even worse than the number show

384
00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 2: number one. They played a very easy schedule, but they

385
00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:49,600
Speaker 2: placed they faced hurts, got hurt. They placed picket Cooper Rush, Dalton,

386
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:53,720
Speaker 2: Trey Lance, Deshaun Watson, Spencer Rattler, And then if you

387
00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:58,720
Speaker 2: dig a little deeper, played the Cowboys without Ferguson, the

388
00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:05,720
Speaker 2: Eagles without God, the Cardinals without McBride so like, and

389
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:08,480
Speaker 2: McBride is elite versus man too. He didn't play in

390
00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:10,800
Speaker 2: that game, so he had Higgins, I think was their

391
00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:14,560
Speaker 2: their number one tight end so I I think they're

392
00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:17,120
Speaker 2: even worse than their number show based on some schedule

393
00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:21,399
Speaker 2: and most importantly the injury locked. So I think Laporta

394
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:25,160
Speaker 2: is gonna have easy, easy catches here in a huge day.

395
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:27,439
Speaker 2: I mean, I think he's probably gonna end up with

396
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 2: eight targets, probably a couple of explosives. And the Commanders

397
00:20:32,320 --> 00:20:36,360
Speaker 2: they're bad against the run, but you can't just get

398
00:20:36,359 --> 00:20:38,159
Speaker 2: They're gonna have to sell out here. They're gonna have

399
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:39,879
Speaker 2: to come up and because the Lions are gonna come

400
00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 2: out and they're gonna run it, and I think that's

401
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:45,840
Speaker 2: just gonna open up opportunities for Laporta. So give me

402
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 2: over forty eight and a half yards. I don't project

403
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,800
Speaker 2: these things, well do you guys do that? I checked

404
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:53,719
Speaker 2: with Kerner and a couple other guys I trust who

405
00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:55,680
Speaker 2: are like fifty to fifty one, so at least they're

406
00:20:55,720 --> 00:21:01,320
Speaker 2: over this number fifty and brock right zero targets his

407
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:05,640
Speaker 2: last four games, So like it's it's gonna be Laporta.

408
00:21:05,800 --> 00:21:07,439
Speaker 2: You also have a Lottimore back healthy, he's got a

409
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:10,120
Speaker 2: game under his belt. Maybe he's a little more effective

410
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:14,520
Speaker 2: this week and kind of takes a few catches away

411
00:21:14,560 --> 00:21:19,880
Speaker 2: from uh Jamison Williams. But I think Laport is gonna

412
00:21:19,880 --> 00:21:21,159
Speaker 2: be big that The only thing I worry about is

413
00:21:21,200 --> 00:21:23,600
Speaker 2: just the lines run it a million times. But this

414
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,080
Speaker 2: is a high total they should score and they're gonna

415
00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:27,879
Speaker 2: put up points. And I think Laport will have a

416
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:29,440
Speaker 2: bunch of easy catches here. What do you think?

417
00:21:30,840 --> 00:21:33,320
Speaker 1: No, yeah, I think this whole line's offense is is

418
00:21:33,359 --> 00:21:35,360
Speaker 1: gonna cook. I think they're gonna be very like they're

419
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:37,400
Speaker 1: gonna like, you know, Ben Johnson, this is his this

420
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:39,920
Speaker 1: is what his last uh you know, his last hurrah

421
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:42,080
Speaker 1: here before he takes a head coaching job somewhere, So

422
00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,120
Speaker 1: you know, he's gonna be the only thing you might

423
00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:46,920
Speaker 1: won't worry about is like that Dan Skipper doesn't take

424
00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,879
Speaker 1: some targets away from laporta like that's that's the biggest concern.

425
00:21:50,920 --> 00:21:53,720
Speaker 1: But yeah, I think Washington, uh you know that that's

426
00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 1: you know Wagners. I saw him on the injury report,

427
00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:58,120
Speaker 1: so yeah, you know that's that could be an issue

428
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,280
Speaker 1: too as well. But you know, with Latimore here kind

429
00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 1: of changes the calculus a little bit of how you

430
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:06,360
Speaker 1: attack Washington compared to earlier in the year. So yeah,

431
00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:09,080
Speaker 1: those tighter numbers could get even worse just because now

432
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:11,240
Speaker 1: you have a corner who you're a little bit less

433
00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:14,080
Speaker 1: likely for a lot less likely maybe who knows the target.

434
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:16,360
Speaker 1: Although he wasn't playing as well as he wasn't early

435
00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 1: in the year either, So but yeah, I think I

436
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 1: think Laporter.

437
00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:22,920
Speaker 2: Just based them again today and and la.

438
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,200
Speaker 1: Porter the crucial thing for him is earlier in the

439
00:22:25,280 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 1: year it was kind of like the Mark Andrews situation

440
00:22:27,320 --> 00:22:28,919
Speaker 1: with him. I don't know if he wasn't healthy or.

441
00:22:28,920 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 2: What he wasn't He wasn't around routes, he wasn't run round.

442
00:22:31,840 --> 00:22:33,439
Speaker 2: They've confirmed that that he wasn't healthy.

443
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,959
Speaker 1: So he's been at about I projecting him for ninety

444
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 1: percent around ninety percent, whereas most of the year he was,

445
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:42,359
Speaker 1: you know, sixty five seventy, then he got up to eighty.

446
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:46,640
Speaker 1: But yeah, playoffs, he should be a full go. Your

447
00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:48,440
Speaker 1: biggest concern is probably they blow him out. But I

448
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 1: actually lean Washington here. I think that all the concerns

449
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:56,919
Speaker 1: we had about this Lion defense and you know, them

450
00:22:56,960 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 1: being able to kind of get through this gallet or

451
00:22:59,359 --> 00:23:01,200
Speaker 1: just get you know, get through everything and get to

452
00:23:01,359 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 1: get to the Super Bowl. After these injuries still applies.

453
00:23:04,560 --> 00:23:07,080
Speaker 1: We just we know now that Donald was just a pumpkin,

454
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:10,200
Speaker 1: Like I mean, we knew it before, but we shouldn't

455
00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:12,920
Speaker 1: just forget everything we kind of felt about the Lions

456
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:15,080
Speaker 1: just because Sam Donald is a pumpkin and gave them

457
00:23:15,080 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 1: a buye, you know what I mean. Like this is

458
00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 1: still a team that did this Commander team just I mean,

459
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:21,680
Speaker 1: they got us last week with the Bucks. I mean,

460
00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:23,680
Speaker 1: how many times did the Bucks stop a great game

461
00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,400
Speaker 1: plan by the Bucks? And just you know, you can't

462
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,479
Speaker 1: stop a team. It's like eight times in a row

463
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:30,800
Speaker 1: with the goal wise, So that fumble was just massive

464
00:23:30,840 --> 00:23:32,919
Speaker 1: and it still took him till fourth down and it

465
00:23:33,000 --> 00:23:35,639
Speaker 1: was a ball that could have been broken up. So

466
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:37,879
Speaker 1: I do think there's some regression coming. But at the

467
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 1: same time, it's Jaden Daniels's legs. If he's getting four

468
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 1: downs against that defense every time, they're gonna they're probably

469
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:46,640
Speaker 1: gonna keep up and keep it within the score back

470
00:23:46,680 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 1: door or not. So yeah, I would I would wean

471
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 1: Commanders hoping it gets to ten. That would make me

472
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 1: feel a little better. But I think I'd rather I

473
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 1: feel a lot more comfortable about a team like that

474
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:57,639
Speaker 1: than a team like the Texans if I'm betting one

475
00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:00,239
Speaker 1: of these bigger numbers just because I know I've I

476
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 1: know for a fact that the Commanders can kind of

477
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 1: can do this. I don't know if the Texas can

478
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 1: do this with you know, offensively.

479
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:09,040
Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, I'm just not sure that cam is

480
00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:11,160
Speaker 2: gonna run it. And they're not. They don't they don't

481
00:24:11,200 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 2: have like they haven't been as good against man, Like

482
00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:16,160
Speaker 2: the Lions are second blitz the second most blitz heavy

483
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 2: defense doing it even more now and they're they're gonna

484
00:24:18,680 --> 00:24:22,240
Speaker 2: play as man as much as anybody. And then Washington

485
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,160
Speaker 2: has not had an explosive passing offense.

486
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,280
Speaker 1: Told me not to play under like fifty eight against

487
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,680
Speaker 1: like Minnesota, Like now you're scared of whych like Washington

488
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:34,160
Speaker 1: brod Sam Donald like like Washing, I think Washington will

489
00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 1: be fine, Like we know what Sam Garnald is, Like

490
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:39,359
Speaker 1: I think that I think that's just the issue. Like

491
00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 1: I think we like we we were all worried about

492
00:24:41,960 --> 00:24:44,639
Speaker 1: the Lions defense. Now were just acting like they're fine

493
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 1: because they had one good game.

494
00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:48,920
Speaker 2: I mean, I don't think that they're fine at all.

495
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:53,880
Speaker 2: But uh, I don't know if this is the perfect

496
00:24:53,920 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 2: matchup to fully explad it because I don't. The problem

497
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 2: is I don't see way like Minnesota had a good

498
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:00,959
Speaker 2: d on paper they could do Like Washington's defense is

499
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 2: legit bad. How are they stopping this line's offense and

500
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:06,640
Speaker 2: doors so and then I just worried about the fourth

501
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 2: down there it's crashing down to earth for Washington and

502
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 2: you can't get away with that against Detroit in Detroit.

503
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, this is that's probably a deep maybe a

504
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:19,560
Speaker 1: Lions team total over or something too.

505
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 2: I mean, I would rather take that super high, but

506
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:23,520
Speaker 2: I don't. I don't mind me.

507
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:26,400
Speaker 1: How are they not getting to thirty five? Like they're

508
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 1: getting five touchdowns game and less. Let's watch Iton like

509
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:33,399
Speaker 1: just hand slams Brian Robinson into a wall for like

510
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:35,360
Speaker 1: twenty times like they did against Tampa Bay.

511
00:25:35,560 --> 00:25:37,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, you would hope they don't do that here.

512
00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, his prop is down to like eight, and like

513
00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 1: his carry prop is like eight and a half. I'm

514
00:25:41,400 --> 00:25:44,160
Speaker 1: actually showing a little value on the over now, Like it's.

515
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 2: Do you like Laporta over four and a half catches

516
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:46,679
Speaker 2: or no?

517
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:49,879
Speaker 1: I would rather the yards because he's explosive. And this

518
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:52,400
Speaker 1: is a situation where you got to remember from from

519
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:57,800
Speaker 1: a volume standpoint, what you don't want efficiency necessarily, which

520
00:25:57,840 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 1: is why I like the Schultz catches, because like I

521
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,440
Speaker 1: Houston is not going to be efficient, So like there's

522
00:26:02,480 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of opportunities where with this Lions team,

523
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 1: there's gonna be explosive play. So like let's say reporter

524
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:12,000
Speaker 1: only catches two for like seventy yards, you know that's

525
00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 1: a possibility because let's say Jamo catches a long touchdown,

526
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,800
Speaker 1: that's a drive that reporter can't do anything. Let's say

527
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,520
Speaker 1: Gibbs get some long touchdown that you know, like if

528
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 1: there's explosive plays, it takes away because four and a

529
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:25,679
Speaker 1: half catches that that's like that's a lot of catches

530
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,080
Speaker 1: that now you're talking about more than one per quarter,

531
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 1: so and and there's a blowout potential. So yeah, I

532
00:26:32,040 --> 00:26:36,040
Speaker 1: would for report, I would definitely wean yards in that

533
00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,520
Speaker 1: situation because like you're indoors an explosive.

534
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:40,960
Speaker 3: All right.

535
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:44,439
Speaker 1: So for my second pick, the third overall of the

536
00:26:44,920 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 1: Divisional round six pack, going with the Eagles rams first

537
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:57,880
Speaker 1: half under twenty two and a half. This is obviously

538
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 1: the first game on Sunday. Eagles are six point favorites,

539
00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:07,080
Speaker 1: The total is forty three and a half twelve pm

540
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 1: Eastern on NBC and Peacock. And this has been popular

541
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 1: played for me, these Eagles first half unders. Another one

542
00:27:13,800 --> 00:27:15,840
Speaker 1: I hit last week. I think there was ten total

543
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 1: points in that in that first half, and they all

544
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:20,640
Speaker 1: came in with the Eagles in the first quarter off

545
00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:23,560
Speaker 1: that off that fumble pretty much as you described. And

546
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,920
Speaker 1: in this matchup. The reason I like the first half

547
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 1: under is because I do think as the game progresses

548
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,720
Speaker 1: there are some things, you know, that I don't like

549
00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:36,880
Speaker 1: about the Rams defense. Like I thought they wore down

550
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 1: in that first matchup. And you saw Saquon bark we

551
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:43,640
Speaker 1: bust off both of his explosives in that second half

552
00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 1: of that first matchup, but earlier he ran.

553
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 2: For fifty five I believe it was five, and he

554
00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 2: only had seventy something at the half.

555
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:54,880
Speaker 1: Right only right, yeah, only yeah, Yeah, there all tip

556
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:57,440
Speaker 1: the two to fifty five, right, So he had a

557
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:00,680
Speaker 1: couple of long runs. He's gonna wear the defense down. Uh.

558
00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:03,760
Speaker 1: They did play on you know, Uh, they were the

559
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 1: last team to play, so a little bit of a

560
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:08,440
Speaker 1: short rest situation there, So don't love that for the

561
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 1: full game. Uh, And Philadelphia is just prone to these

562
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:15,359
Speaker 1: slower starts, and I think mcveay's gonna lean into that.

563
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 1: Last week, what you saw was kind of we're indoors, uh,

564
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:22,800
Speaker 1: and so they he felt a lot more comfortable with

565
00:28:22,840 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 1: Stafford going past heavy. Uh. Yeah, yeah, So Stafford started

566
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:33,239
Speaker 1: super hot, like ten out of ten, and it was

567
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:35,720
Speaker 1: just you didn't they didn't run kyron nearly as much

568
00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 1: as they had been in some other matches. But this

569
00:28:38,040 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 1: matchup outdoors, cold weather. Uh. And if you look at

570
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 1: mcvay's game plans a lot more run heavy in the

571
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 1: first half in these kind of matchups, and you're you're

572
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:53,720
Speaker 1: looking at some of these outdoor games like uh the uh,

573
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 1: the Niners game on Thursday night, Like there was just

574
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:59,240
Speaker 1: a few of those games late in the year where

575
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:03,320
Speaker 1: uh mathu. The Seahawks game with the Rams just really

576
00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 1: struggled early in that game. And I know their offensive

577
00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:09,320
Speaker 1: line is in better shape, but still I think this

578
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:11,120
Speaker 1: is going to be a heavy, tiring game. That's what

579
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:14,720
Speaker 1: we've seen from McVey as like an underdog and outdoors

580
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:16,920
Speaker 1: essentially when he when he doesn't think his pass offense

581
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 1: can have as much success, which against this Eagles defense,

582
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 1: that yeah, they lost to Kobe Dean, but still excellent corners,

583
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:25,960
Speaker 1: still going to give you know, the Rams some problems

584
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 1: protection wise, I think. So I think this is a

585
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 1: spot where he's gonna want to run early, and we

586
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:32,360
Speaker 1: know the Eagles are going to run early. But the

587
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 1: bonuses the Rams defense has gotten a lot better. You know,

588
00:29:36,000 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 1: it's not going to be easy to stop this Eagles team.

589
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 1: But Jalen Hurts hasn't looked quite right. He hasn't played

590
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 1: amazingly well. We don't know if A. J. Brown is

591
00:29:45,600 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 1: fully one hundred percent he's healthy. Rams love to play zone.

592
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 1: You tend to have less touchdown passes and things like that.

593
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 1: Against zone tends to funnel the ball more to Smith,

594
00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 1: which I mean it's still not you know, he's still explosive,

595
00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 1: but less so than than AJ Brown. So so just

596
00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 1: a lot of different situations where I think that you're

597
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 1: going to continue to see both of these teams kind

598
00:30:06,040 --> 00:30:07,720
Speaker 1: of play the way they have in the first half.

599
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 1: And that's been for the Rams twelve and six to

600
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 1: the under, for the Eagles eleven and seven to the under.

601
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 1: So both of these teams among the most profitable first

602
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:19,080
Speaker 1: half under teams. And you brought it up last week.

603
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 1: The Eagles, they starts off, Who knows how many points

604
00:30:21,680 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 1: they would have scored if they didn't get that fumble,

605
00:30:24,040 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 1: because first quarter they are averaging let's see four points

606
00:30:30,080 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 1: per game now including postseason, that is nineteenth and then

607
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 1: first half they're middle of the pack around twelve point three.

608
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 1: But you know, twelve even if they get.

609
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:44,120
Speaker 2: To schedule of opposing defenses in the NFL.

610
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the Rams are much improved, So I do

611
00:30:46,880 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 1: think the Eagles probably get at least they probably punched

612
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 1: one in at maybe even two. But I don't I'm

613
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 1: not looking at this Rams offense is starting as hot.

614
00:30:54,520 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 1: I think they're just gonna be a lot more run heavy.

615
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 1: I think some of those red zone issues could creep

616
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:00,960
Speaker 1: up because it usually doesn't go as smoothly for Stafford

617
00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 1: in the red zone either. Outdoors, you worry about the kicker,

618
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 1: who was an issue earlier in the year. It has

619
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,239
Speaker 1: gotten a lot better, but that could creep up at

620
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:11,040
Speaker 1: any time. Stafford in the cold weather, Elliott too.

621
00:31:10,960 --> 00:31:13,400
Speaker 2: Elliott right now, Elliott, Yeah, going through some stuff.

622
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:16,680
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's and you know, even for Fanjo, we

623
00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 1: know Fanjo, we know what he does. He wants to

624
00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:21,960
Speaker 1: protect against the explosive and like that's kind of that's

625
00:31:22,000 --> 00:31:24,760
Speaker 1: also what McVeigh. That's like he's he was obsessed with

626
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:26,880
Speaker 1: that kind of defense too, and so like both of

627
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 1: these teams don't want to give up explosives. He saw

628
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 1: that first half under cash in the first meeting, even

629
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 1: with the Eagles scoring with a minute I believe it's

630
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:36,800
Speaker 1: like a minute and a half to go in the

631
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 1: first board, they scored a touchdown. In the first half,

632
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 1: they scored a touchdown, and the under the first half

633
00:31:41,280 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 1: hundred still cash in that game. So I think there

634
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 1: is I think there's twenty first half points in that one.

635
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:47,680
Speaker 1: So yeah, I think this is just for a playoff game,

636
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 1: a little bit too high. But over the full course

637
00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:52,560
Speaker 1: of the game, I do worry about the defense wearing

638
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:56,000
Speaker 1: down for the Rams, and I worry about, uh, you know,

639
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 1: at once the Rams, if they get behind Stafford, getting

640
00:32:00,080 --> 00:32:01,720
Speaker 1: to a little bit of a groove, you know, them

641
00:32:01,760 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 1: figuring out how exactly to exploit the Nikobe Dean loss.

642
00:32:06,280 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 1: You know, they have four different tight ends. If Higgby plays,

643
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 1: and Higby's playing really well, So over the full course

644
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:12,280
Speaker 1: of the game, you know, I could see I could

645
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 1: see this guy with some experience start to get it together,

646
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 1: but I think this is going to be ugly. Another

647
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:20,080
Speaker 1: ugly start for the Rams in cold weather, and I

648
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 1: think the Eagles, you know, start a little bit I

649
00:32:23,760 --> 00:32:25,440
Speaker 1: mean they always start a little bit slower. But I

650
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 1: think this RAMS defense is underrated. So give me first

651
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 1: half under twenty two and a half. We'd love it

652
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 1: to get to twenty three, but it looks like this

653
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 1: total is going the other way. Maybe if we get

654
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:36,160
Speaker 1: some good weather, it might pop up, but I don't

655
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:38,440
Speaker 1: think we're getting a twenty three, but that is the

656
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:41,280
Speaker 1: key number. But I'm expecting this to be you know,

657
00:32:41,320 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 1: in the like twenty seventeen to twenty So still playing

658
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 1: the under twenty two and a half. But if you

659
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:47,959
Speaker 1: don't see me put in an app I'm just That's

660
00:32:47,960 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 1: probably why I'm just waiting to see get if we

661
00:32:51,480 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 1: get an increase again, because it did open for full

662
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 1: game at forty I think forty six and a half

663
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 1: and it got steamed down. So as we get closer

664
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:01,960
Speaker 1: to back off the public, you know, could get some

665
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:04,000
Speaker 1: public money, maybe it shoots up enough to get get

666
00:33:04,080 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 1: us to at least a twenty three flat but we'll

667
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 1: see anyway. Any other thoughts on this, Yeah, I.

668
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 2: Might have some. I like this. I'm gonna be on this.

669
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 2: I might have some full game under two just because

670
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 2: I think the Eagles win probably and they're so good

671
00:33:20,120 --> 00:33:23,400
Speaker 2: in the second half of games, just bleeding clock with

672
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:25,960
Speaker 2: just eight to nine minute drives, and you can run

673
00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 2: efficiently on the Rams. Like you look at their yards

674
00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:30,680
Speaker 2: before contact. They don't give up explosive runs. Now they

675
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:34,720
Speaker 2: do give up explosive passes, which is a concern. But

676
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 2: hurts isn't right and A J. Brown is one hundred

677
00:33:38,040 --> 00:33:40,360
Speaker 2: percent not fully healthy. Yeah, I mean I went back

678
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:43,760
Speaker 2: and watched that game last week. He is his knee

679
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 2: is not. He is not at one hundred percent. That's

680
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 2: huge because the Rams corners against the number one, number

681
00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 2: two receivers, it's troubling. DeVante spent didn't even play in

682
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:57,560
Speaker 2: that first game and haven't seen that right tackle didn't

683
00:33:57,560 --> 00:33:59,479
Speaker 2: play for the Rams, and Higby didn't play, So that

684
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 2: worries me a little bit. And Barkley versus the Rams

685
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 2: linebackers is a big mismatch in this game. But yeah,

686
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:08,880
Speaker 2: the one thing that gives me concern is if like

687
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 2: just hurts last week was rust and the concussion after effects,

688
00:34:14,160 --> 00:34:16,759
Speaker 2: and like the offense just looks like it did, say

689
00:34:16,760 --> 00:34:19,160
Speaker 2: in the Steelers game all of a sudden, like it

690
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 2: was just completely explosive and they start throwing it down

691
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:25,360
Speaker 2: the field. But what have we seen all year? We

692
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 2: can believe in this Eagles defense. The Fangio versus McVeigh

693
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:32,520
Speaker 2: matchup as a fascinating one. That's gonna be a great

694
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:34,880
Speaker 2: chess match. McVeigh. This is a tough situation spot for

695
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 2: the Rams, like short rest rest disadvantage going across the country,

696
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:41,160
Speaker 2: but he has been good in these spots. He's sixteen

697
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:42,759
Speaker 2: and seven against the spread on shure arrest, twelve and

698
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:46,719
Speaker 2: two against the spread the last fourteen. The other thing

699
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 2: I worry about is the Eagles offensive line, like it

700
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 2: can neutralize that Rams defensive line. That's what happened in

701
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 2: the first meeting. And then the back end is problematic

702
00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:02,399
Speaker 2: for the Rams, and the Eagles do a great job.

703
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 2: They don't allow anything explosive. They're so disciplate on the

704
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:06,920
Speaker 2: back end. The Kobe Tino hurt a little bit. We'll

705
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 2: see if how much of Trotter, the young kid. We'll

706
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 2: see how much they use him and the good thing

707
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 2: is the.

708
00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:16,320
Speaker 1: Good thing is for them that when they go to dime,

709
00:35:18,600 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 1: Bond usually wears the green dot, so like they have,

710
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:26,919
Speaker 1: he's already has experienced communicating. Because that's what you worry

711
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:30,120
Speaker 1: about as far as unders with a green dot out

712
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:32,000
Speaker 1: is that not even even though I mean Dean is

713
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,960
Speaker 1: hobnously accounted green dot. But more so you worry about

714
00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:39,760
Speaker 1: communication issues affecting other players, like the safeties, the corners

715
00:35:40,040 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 1: that can lead to explosive plays. But the fact that

716
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 1: you have another excellent coverage linebacker that also has experienced

717
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:49,880
Speaker 1: communicating and wearing the dot, I think is a big help,

718
00:35:50,760 --> 00:35:52,560
Speaker 1: you know, to the Rams defense. And I think also

719
00:35:53,160 --> 00:35:55,839
Speaker 1: I do think was it Shula? I think I think

720
00:35:55,840 --> 00:35:58,720
Speaker 1: it's called him some good games. I think this RAMS

721
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:00,720
Speaker 1: team kind of knows what they are. And I think

722
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 1: you saw against the Vikers. Why did trum mc bay

723
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:07,240
Speaker 1: rest instead of playing his guys Because he knew rest

724
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 1: he could go indoors and he had confidence in his

725
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:12,759
Speaker 1: offense even though that defense was high he ranked, but

726
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 1: he else any had confidence in his defense. This matchup,

727
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 1: I think was the one he was hoping to avoid,

728
00:36:17,360 --> 00:36:20,200
Speaker 1: you know, a cold weather matchup, at Philly where they

729
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:22,360
Speaker 1: where they put up thirty seven in the first meeting.

730
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:24,480
Speaker 1: So this one, I think he's going to play it

731
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:27,399
Speaker 1: a little closer to the vest, try to shorten the game,

732
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 1: hand it to Kyron. So yeah, I think the first

733
00:36:30,080 --> 00:36:33,640
Speaker 1: half still is better, but you know, full game, there's

734
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:35,240
Speaker 1: some ways that could get there. I mean the Eagles

735
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 1: could have just as well lay an egg too. I

736
00:36:36,640 --> 00:36:40,400
Speaker 1: mean I think this Rams like because the line for Stafford,

737
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 1: he didn't really have his full line, so if they

738
00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 1: could just protect him. Because a lot of the sacks

739
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:45,840
Speaker 1: he took in that first game, if you went I

740
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:47,759
Speaker 1: went back and watched, there was a couple like one

741
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:49,480
Speaker 1: or two right before the half where they were just

742
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:52,520
Speaker 1: trying to get points or just punt it away. And

743
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 1: then there was another one with a couple more McClendon

744
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:57,799
Speaker 1: who's not playing anymore, who just got feet right off

745
00:36:57,800 --> 00:36:59,400
Speaker 1: the ball. So a lot of the sacks that he

746
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:03,000
Speaker 1: took were preventable. If those are preventable, and the Rams

747
00:37:03,200 --> 00:37:05,160
Speaker 1: could just kind of, you know, get a couple first

748
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:08,640
Speaker 1: downs at kir in each drive, I think this is

749
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:11,040
Speaker 1: very good under type.

750
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do expect them to start, so there could

751
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:15,600
Speaker 2: be some rain here if you'll put some numbers to

752
00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:18,040
Speaker 2: a Rams first quarter offense twenty ninth and success rate

753
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:21,399
Speaker 2: thirtieth and EPA per play, Eagles first quarter offense twenty second,

754
00:37:21,480 --> 00:37:24,000
Speaker 2: success rate twenty fourth EPA per play, although the Rams

755
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 2: first quarter defense is the worst in the league and

756
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 2: EPA for play. For what it's worth, but do you look,

757
00:37:28,120 --> 00:37:30,879
Speaker 2: these are two top six red zone defenses in terms

758
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 2: of touchdown percentage loud below average offenses in the red zone.

759
00:37:34,719 --> 00:37:37,880
Speaker 2: I think the Rams are twenty fifth and touchdown percentage

760
00:37:37,920 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 2: inside the red zone. Look at the Rams outdoors Stafford.

761
00:37:42,120 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 2: One of the reasons I think that that buy was

762
00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 2: smart is because they didn't have a buy since like

763
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 2: week five, Stafford older quarterback. Now outdoors short week I

764
00:37:50,280 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 2: he might not look as good. Here's what the Rams

765
00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:53,799
Speaker 2: have done in the first half. I'll close with this,

766
00:37:54,239 --> 00:37:56,800
Speaker 2: and in outdoor games this year, and those numbers for

767
00:37:56,840 --> 00:38:00,160
Speaker 2: the first quarter are all their games just here, and

768
00:38:00,200 --> 00:38:02,800
Speaker 2: they're bad. Here are there games in the first half

769
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:07,759
Speaker 2: outdoors down ten six at Chicago, down thirteen to three

770
00:38:07,840 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 2: at Seattle, up fourteen ten at New England three three

771
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:17,120
Speaker 2: at San Francisco, rain game, down nine to six at

772
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:23,359
Speaker 2: New York five games outdoors. In the first half, they

773
00:38:23,360 --> 00:38:26,280
Speaker 2: were outscored forty five to thirty two, average score nine

774
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 2: to six point four. So it's been ugly.

775
00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:34,319
Speaker 1: I just rewatched all of those games in preparation for

776
00:38:34,360 --> 00:38:36,799
Speaker 1: this podcast, so imagine how I'm feeling right now. I

777
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 1: just watched all that disgustingness. That's how I like, I

778
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:42,359
Speaker 1: can remember specific sacks about like, oh man, it was yeah,

779
00:38:42,400 --> 00:38:44,719
Speaker 1: it was bad. And I think I think that, like

780
00:38:44,800 --> 00:38:46,440
Speaker 1: last week was an aberration. They had all the time

781
00:38:46,480 --> 00:38:49,360
Speaker 1: to prepare, like like you said, by time to get healthy,

782
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:52,040
Speaker 1: time to prepare, and an opponent that they felt confident,

783
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:53,759
Speaker 1: you know, that they could do something.

784
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:54,040
Speaker 3: I don't.

785
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 1: I don't think they're gonna feel with confident in what

786
00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:58,080
Speaker 1: they you know, what they did last week being able

787
00:38:58,080 --> 00:39:00,400
Speaker 1: to work the same because I even remember at that

788
00:39:00,600 --> 00:39:03,320
Speaker 1: game at certain points and being like it was almost

789
00:39:03,360 --> 00:39:05,719
Speaker 1: like the slowest thing with the Houston where I know

790
00:39:05,760 --> 00:39:08,319
Speaker 1: they've been passing on early downs for a few weeks now,

791
00:39:08,360 --> 00:39:09,960
Speaker 1: but I was just like, huh, I can't believe they

792
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:11,640
Speaker 1: didn't hand it to Kiren right there. Ye, Kim believe

793
00:39:11,640 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 1: the didn't hand it to Kirn right there? And they

794
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 1: were just picking up chunks. I don't think that's gonna

795
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:15,680
Speaker 1: happen this week.

796
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:16,279
Speaker 3: Yep.

797
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 2: One last thing, you said a lot of zone from

798
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:22,000
Speaker 2: the Rams, so I am worried about the secondary. But

799
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 2: I don't think Brown is fully healthy. And no quarterback

800
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 2: is a bigger delta in his numbers this year versus

801
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:29,080
Speaker 2: man and zone than Hurts.

802
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 1: So you can hold the ball's honold.

803
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:36,239
Speaker 2: That should allow for some sacks, just to him holding

804
00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:39,920
Speaker 2: the balls along which which should kill some drives. All right,

805
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:42,480
Speaker 2: For my second pick and the fourth overall the division

806
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:46,760
Speaker 2: round six pack, I'm going with the Baltimore Ravens first

807
00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:51,680
Speaker 2: half money line minus one ten. I don't have to

808
00:39:51,680 --> 00:39:54,279
Speaker 2: get into the numbers. I mentioned them incessantly all year.

809
00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 2: Lamar Jackson first half, God's most profitable quarterback in NFL history.

810
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 2: In the first half. You slice it as a favorite

811
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 2: dog pick whatever you want. It's all sixty six, sixty

812
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:08,560
Speaker 2: seven to sixty eight percent against the spread. I make

813
00:40:08,640 --> 00:40:12,839
Speaker 2: this game right around a true coin flip. But I

814
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:14,880
Speaker 2: do like the Ravens in the first half for a

815
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:18,400
Speaker 2: number of reasons, and in a silent like even in Buffalo,

816
00:40:19,760 --> 00:40:26,759
Speaker 2: I think the Ravens are a bad matchup for the Bills.

817
00:40:27,400 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 2: So like Number one, the Bills run defense is vulnerable.

818
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:36,839
Speaker 2: Don't get some stuffs, but it is not a great

819
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:40,799
Speaker 2: run defense. They allow a ton of explosive runs. That's

820
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:45,120
Speaker 2: a nightmare against Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. The whole

821
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:47,239
Speaker 2: d has been trending down by the way over the

822
00:40:47,280 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 2: second half of the year, even as they got a

823
00:40:49,160 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 2: little healthier, and they face the fairly easy schedule of

824
00:40:52,040 --> 00:40:55,759
Speaker 2: opposing offenses all year. They're the second worst defense in

825
00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:58,840
Speaker 2: the NFL in defending over the middle of the field.

826
00:41:00,360 --> 00:41:04,920
Speaker 2: That's problematic against Baltimore with or without Say Flowers. I

827
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:07,239
Speaker 2: mean at Say Flowers, he missed. They missed the day.

828
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 2: Flowers like play action. But the first meeting they blew

829
00:41:10,600 --> 00:41:14,920
Speaker 2: out the Bills and he didn't do much in that game.

830
00:41:15,719 --> 00:41:19,800
Speaker 2: But the Ravens can stop the Bills rushing attack without

831
00:41:20,040 --> 00:41:25,240
Speaker 2: doing anything without changing their defense. The Bills can't stop

832
00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 2: the Ravens rush offense without drastically changing what they want

833
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:31,440
Speaker 2: to do, which I think they're gonna have to do.

834
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:32,719
Speaker 2: They're gonna have to go heavier here.

835
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 3: I know.

836
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:35,239
Speaker 2: In the first meeting, it's worth mentioning that they were

837
00:41:35,280 --> 00:41:39,760
Speaker 2: playing Baal Inspector and Nicholas Moro. I think the Eagles

838
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:41,640
Speaker 2: just signed at linebacker through the Yeact. Yeah, they were

839
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:44,480
Speaker 2: down all their linebacker, Tron Johnson was hurt. But I

840
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:47,080
Speaker 2: think they're gonna have to go a little bigger here.

841
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 2: I mean, I think thirty percent of the time, which

842
00:41:50,320 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 2: is high for them. They went a little bigger in

843
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 2: the first meeting, but it still didn't matter. I mean

844
00:41:55,000 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 2: Ravens last week they went multiple backs or tight ends

845
00:41:57,520 --> 00:41:59,920
Speaker 2: on eighty nine percent of their snaps, even at fifteen snaps.

846
00:42:00,120 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 2: Josh Jones is their sixth offensive lineman.

847
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:04,960
Speaker 1: Both of these people love that love sixty offensive line.

848
00:42:05,080 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 2: Ye and Bills use the base defense only three point

849
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 2: six percent of the time, which and they even use

850
00:42:10,080 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 2: dime at sixteen percent, which is the highest base the lowest.

851
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 2: So like the Ravens could just come in and bully them,

852
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:19,160
Speaker 2: they're gonna have to adjust, bring your safeties down. Maybe.

853
00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 2: I mean the whole mc dermott tenant is like, let's

854
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:24,319
Speaker 2: take away the exposed to play, make the teams work

855
00:42:24,360 --> 00:42:26,640
Speaker 2: the way down the field. I don't think you can

856
00:42:26,680 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 2: do that here. Maybe you can, But in the first meeting,

857
00:42:29,040 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 2: the Ravens ran at thirty four times for two hundred

858
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:33,720
Speaker 2: and seventy one yards eight yards per carry and blew

859
00:42:33,719 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 2: them out. So I think Buffalo is gonna have to

860
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:40,880
Speaker 2: eventually cheat against the run. It's just a bad matchup

861
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:42,120
Speaker 2: because the Raves gonna be able to throw in the

862
00:42:42,120 --> 00:42:45,160
Speaker 2: middle of the field take advantage of the Bills linebackers

863
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:47,719
Speaker 2: and safeties, which is their weakness. Milano is just not

864
00:42:47,800 --> 00:42:52,000
Speaker 2: the same player that he's been pre injuries, So yah,

865
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 2: the defensive line is a bit undersize the world. It's

866
00:42:54,960 --> 00:42:56,959
Speaker 2: not an elite defensive line. And on the other side

867
00:42:56,960 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 2: of the ball, Josh Allen unbelievable. I can't wait for

868
00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:04,560
Speaker 2: this matchup of Allen versus Mahomes. But it's not like

869
00:43:04,640 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 2: his receivers aren't illeally and that's what you need to

870
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:11,640
Speaker 2: beat this Ravens defense. Ravens past defense talked about the

871
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 2: changes that they made schematically communication wise, but there's still

872
00:43:15,200 --> 00:43:18,760
Speaker 2: a bit vulnerable in my eyes to very elite receivers.

873
00:43:18,760 --> 00:43:20,400
Speaker 2: Even saw that last week of the Steelers, the Steelers

874
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:24,520
Speaker 2: had some deep shots to pick and so the way

875
00:43:24,520 --> 00:43:27,840
Speaker 2: that I'd see this game playing out is the Ravens

876
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:33,080
Speaker 2: being able to sustain drives on a much more consistent basis.

877
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 2: Bills are probably gonna come out and they're not gonna

878
00:43:36,640 --> 00:43:39,000
Speaker 2: have much success running the ball. It's probably gonna kill

879
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:44,600
Speaker 2: a few drives, and I think the Ravens ultimately are

880
00:43:44,640 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 2: up at the half just based on matchups where but

881
00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:51,759
Speaker 2: I still think the Bills can easily win this game.

882
00:43:51,800 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 2: And I might look but to bet the Bills second half.

883
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 2: This is crazy in that Ravens have Lamar Jackson, who's

884
00:43:58,160 --> 00:43:59,839
Speaker 2: the most profitable quarterback and the end of all history.

885
00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:01,360
Speaker 2: In the first half against the spread, he knows the

886
00:44:01,400 --> 00:44:03,560
Speaker 2: most profitable quarterback in nfustree and the second half against

887
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:08,000
Speaker 2: the spread Josha seventy four, forty four and three sixty

888
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:10,880
Speaker 2: three percent most profitable NFL A Street fifteen and two

889
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:14,240
Speaker 2: against the spread the second half this year. So what happened?

890
00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 2: What is? How do I think this game? I play

891
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:18,960
Speaker 2: out Obviously, turnovers and flukes and whatever I mean these

892
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 2: anything can happen in this game. The margins are so thin.

893
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:26,440
Speaker 2: But then second half, Bill's playing from behind, seeing Ravens

894
00:44:26,480 --> 00:44:31,560
Speaker 2: give up some leads, it's unleash Allen and let him

895
00:44:31,960 --> 00:44:35,319
Speaker 2: just go crazy. Abandon the run. You're playing from behind,

896
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 2: and I could see the Bills coming back and winning

897
00:44:40,520 --> 00:44:43,440
Speaker 2: this game with Alan just going into god mode with

898
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:45,959
Speaker 2: his legs, hitting some deep shots after he creates time

899
00:44:46,280 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 2: because the Ravens aren't going to get elite pressure here.

900
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:52,080
Speaker 2: Bill's offensive line is good, Ravens don't really generate a

901
00:44:52,080 --> 00:44:56,000
Speaker 2: ton of natural pass rush, especially on early downs, so

902
00:44:56,520 --> 00:44:57,880
Speaker 2: I think it might be more of a struggle for

903
00:44:57,920 --> 00:45:02,239
Speaker 2: the Bills in the first half. But just like it's

904
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:04,640
Speaker 2: just not a great matchup for Buffalo, the heroics of

905
00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:08,400
Speaker 2: Allen could still win in this game with the Ravens

906
00:45:08,440 --> 00:45:13,360
Speaker 2: secondary giving up some chunk plays late. But Bills have

907
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:15,399
Speaker 2: also been I mean, there's there's some variance things working

908
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:18,959
Speaker 2: against the Bills, like the they benefited more than any

909
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:22,600
Speaker 2: team the NFL and turnovers both offensively and defensively. They've

910
00:45:22,640 --> 00:45:24,759
Speaker 2: also played a much easier schedule than Baltimore and bo

911
00:45:24,960 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 2: was in the unluckiest team in the NFL with penalties,

912
00:45:28,840 --> 00:45:30,840
Speaker 2: so we'll see if they have some procedural penalties on

913
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:32,319
Speaker 2: the road, that could be a thing. But they've been

914
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 2: just i mean, just to your judgment call penalties by

915
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:38,920
Speaker 2: far the unluckiest team in the NFL this season. But

916
00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:44,480
Speaker 2: I'm gonna trust Lamar in the first half, and I

917
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 2: might look to come back on the Bills in the

918
00:45:46,080 --> 00:45:50,239
Speaker 2: second half. If history repeats itself, Ravens would cover first half,

919
00:45:50,280 --> 00:45:55,040
Speaker 2: Bill's cover second half. But give me Baltimore first half

920
00:45:55,120 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 2: money line.

921
00:45:56,880 --> 00:45:59,000
Speaker 1: That kind of leads me into my next pick. We

922
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:02,520
Speaker 1: can talk more about this game. So for my a

923
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:05,720
Speaker 1: third pick and the fifth overall of the Divisional round

924
00:46:06,160 --> 00:46:11,200
Speaker 1: six pack, I'm going with the Ravens Bills under fifty

925
00:46:11,280 --> 00:46:14,279
Speaker 1: one and a half. Oh man, this is a scary one,

926
00:46:14,360 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 1: I admit, but I just can't get to a fifty

927
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:22,879
Speaker 1: plus total in this game given the circumstances, because, first

928
00:46:22,920 --> 00:46:27,560
Speaker 1: of all, mentioned in you know that first matchup, Bills

929
00:46:27,640 --> 00:46:32,520
Speaker 1: were severely undermanned on defense and in areas that could

930
00:46:32,520 --> 00:46:36,640
Speaker 1: have helped them tremendously against Lamar Jackson specifically, and this

931
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 1: raven you know, offense, and it was still it was

932
00:46:40,200 --> 00:46:42,920
Speaker 1: still a thirty five to ten game. And that's this

933
00:46:42,960 --> 00:46:46,400
Speaker 1: was at the point where the Ravens defense was one

934
00:46:46,400 --> 00:46:47,960
Speaker 1: of the worst in the league. I mean, this wasn't

935
00:46:48,040 --> 00:46:50,319
Speaker 1: This wasn't post Week eleven when they have, you know,

936
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:52,319
Speaker 1: some of the best numbers in the league, which they

937
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:55,600
Speaker 1: do now. So yes, I do think, you know, these

938
00:46:55,719 --> 00:46:57,719
Speaker 1: coaches are gonna make adjustments. But if you look at

939
00:46:57,800 --> 00:47:00,640
Speaker 1: just how this the Bills are kind of approaching this.

940
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:04,319
Speaker 1: Uh they're saying, Okay, well, how are you gonna stop

941
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:07,759
Speaker 1: the Ravens run game? You know you're you're you like

942
00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:11,200
Speaker 1: to play nickel. You got thrashed in the first meeting,

943
00:47:11,480 --> 00:47:13,960
Speaker 1: And they're saying, well, a lot of it was that

944
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:17,200
Speaker 1: we got you know, we didn't have the offense, really

945
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:19,600
Speaker 1: couldn't possess the ball, and we didn't. We just kind

946
00:47:19,600 --> 00:47:22,520
Speaker 1: of kept giving them, uh, you know, leads, and then

947
00:47:22,560 --> 00:47:24,839
Speaker 1: we had to play from behind. So I think what

948
00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:27,880
Speaker 1: the what the Bills were doing last week against Denver

949
00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:32,800
Speaker 1: wasn't just like a game plan specific thing. Against Denver,

950
00:47:33,120 --> 00:47:35,319
Speaker 1: there were aspects of it with the run heaviness, but

951
00:47:35,800 --> 00:47:37,400
Speaker 1: I think that they were it was kind of a

952
00:47:37,400 --> 00:47:40,000
Speaker 1: tune up to trying to be that ball control offense

953
00:47:40,880 --> 00:47:43,280
Speaker 1: against Baltimore. And I know they're hard to run against.

954
00:47:43,280 --> 00:47:47,359
Speaker 1: But the thing what I see Buffalo doing here is

955
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:52,120
Speaker 1: Reggie Gilliam who's been playing a lot more down the stretch,

956
00:47:52,560 --> 00:47:55,960
Speaker 1: even in important games, and the sixth offensive linemen. Maybe

957
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:58,759
Speaker 1: both so That's something when you talk about, Okay, how

958
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:00,680
Speaker 1: are you going to beat you know, how you're gonna

959
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:02,880
Speaker 1: run against the raven scene that just doesn't give up yards.

960
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:05,960
Speaker 1: It's wrong. Well, most of those downs are coming against

961
00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:09,239
Speaker 1: normal you know, offenses one to one personnel, you know,

962
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:12,279
Speaker 1: maybe someone two. But when you start getting into these

963
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:14,800
Speaker 1: jumbo formations, that's how you kind of even the playing

964
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:17,520
Speaker 1: field out. So I think you see Buffalo do a

965
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:20,279
Speaker 1: lot of that. And on the other hand, I think

966
00:48:20,320 --> 00:48:22,680
Speaker 1: Baltimore is gonna continue to want to run too, because

967
00:48:22,760 --> 00:48:24,600
Speaker 1: that's where they have their edge. So they're gonna bring

968
00:48:24,640 --> 00:48:27,719
Speaker 1: out heavy personnel. But Buffalo has struggled. I think the

969
00:48:27,760 --> 00:48:29,640
Speaker 1: third worst EPA against two to one, which is a

970
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:31,319
Speaker 1: full back. You know, not many teams can do that.

971
00:48:31,360 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 1: Baltimore has re card, So Baltimore is gonna come out

972
00:48:34,040 --> 00:48:36,760
Speaker 1: and and force Buffalo to you know, kind of defend

973
00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:39,760
Speaker 1: that Reid option. But Milonill being back, he was playing

974
00:48:39,760 --> 00:48:42,239
Speaker 1: a new role, third down spy that was doing some

975
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:45,680
Speaker 1: good things against Vo Nicks. And we know Buffalo still

976
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:48,439
Speaker 1: is gonna sit back at times. And I do agree.

977
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 1: I think the explosives are a concern, But we had

978
00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:52,320
Speaker 1: a we had an explosive on the first player of

979
00:48:52,400 --> 00:48:55,319
Speaker 1: the game against Buffalo, and at first meeting, I think

980
00:48:55,320 --> 00:48:57,640
Speaker 1: it was on eighty seven yard for Henry and uh

981
00:48:58,000 --> 00:49:01,280
Speaker 1: and still ended on forty landon forty five, I believe

982
00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:03,799
Speaker 1: for the full game. So now we're getting you know,

983
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:06,239
Speaker 1: fifty one and a half, and I beliven with this

984
00:49:06,320 --> 00:49:10,080
Speaker 1: some some trends. So number one, this is a luck under.

985
00:49:10,520 --> 00:49:12,880
Speaker 1: Both teams have been getting lucky scoring wise, and that

986
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:16,600
Speaker 1: takes into account how amazing Alan and Lamar already are.

987
00:49:16,680 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 1: It's not saying like they're scoring you know, overexpected, because

988
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:23,160
Speaker 1: they're just great under expected, because they're just great quarterbacks

989
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:24,960
Speaker 1: and those guys are going to score over expected like

990
00:49:25,160 --> 00:49:27,640
Speaker 1: this is. They've still been getting luck. I mean, uh,

991
00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:34,040
Speaker 1: there's you know, things like turnovers like you mentioned, field goals, variants, penalties,

992
00:49:34,080 --> 00:49:38,200
Speaker 1: things like that and these in the playoffs, like luck

993
00:49:38,280 --> 00:49:40,600
Speaker 1: under is crushed normally, but in the playoffs when you

994
00:49:40,640 --> 00:49:44,160
Speaker 1: have this is a minus nine, when you have anything

995
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:47,640
Speaker 1: over a one point twenty five in the playoffs, twenty

996
00:49:47,680 --> 00:49:50,880
Speaker 1: four and eight seventy five percent six hit rate to

997
00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:57,080
Speaker 1: the under on these and my favorite stat Baltimore seven

998
00:49:57,160 --> 00:50:02,480
Speaker 1: times they've been in the playoffs with Lamar Jackson. They

999
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:05,279
Speaker 1: have yet to go over a total, So give me

1000
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:08,280
Speaker 1: the under one and a half. Bill's Ravens. It's scary.

1001
00:50:08,400 --> 00:50:09,919
Speaker 1: I know you might get a better number two. It's

1002
00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:11,560
Speaker 1: another one. I wanna wait a little bit. You're gonna

1003
00:50:11,600 --> 00:50:14,880
Speaker 1: get some weather, but you get it. Lamar even admitted

1004
00:50:14,880 --> 00:50:16,760
Speaker 1: he gets a little up tight in these kind of games.

1005
00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:19,759
Speaker 1: Both teams could go run heavy. So yeah, like like

1006
00:50:19,800 --> 00:50:20,520
Speaker 1: the under.

1007
00:50:22,560 --> 00:50:26,160
Speaker 2: No real feel I would worry about. I don't hate it.

1008
00:50:26,280 --> 00:50:27,879
Speaker 1: I worried. I would worry. You don't get me wrong,

1009
00:50:27,920 --> 00:50:29,280
Speaker 1: But like you said, you gotta be comfortable.

1010
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 2: I would actually maybe even prefer the first half under.

1011
00:50:35,200 --> 00:50:39,719
Speaker 2: My biggest worry about it would be like a late

1012
00:50:39,920 --> 00:50:43,400
Speaker 2: fourth quarter, just back and forth when these quarterbacks are unleashed.

1013
00:50:43,440 --> 00:50:44,520
Speaker 1: Like there's the.

1014
00:50:44,760 --> 00:50:47,560
Speaker 2: Other thing is that you're not gonna get many neither

1015
00:50:47,560 --> 00:50:49,600
Speaker 2: of these I don't think either team's gonna get great pressure.

1016
00:50:49,960 --> 00:50:53,800
Speaker 2: Either team really blitz as much. Neither quarterback takes sacks,

1017
00:50:53,960 --> 00:50:55,279
Speaker 2: and they're gonna be able to use their legs to

1018
00:50:55,320 --> 00:50:59,160
Speaker 2: extend drives. So it's gonna be hard to get like

1019
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:03,600
Speaker 2: negative plays in this game to kill drives.

1020
00:51:04,680 --> 00:51:07,040
Speaker 1: But got Carl Jeffers, though you got Carl Jeffer's eleven

1021
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:10,600
Speaker 1: and three to the under postseason, so.

1022
00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:12,799
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's a high total, but it doesn't look

1023
00:51:12,800 --> 00:51:15,000
Speaker 2: if there's gonna be wins for what it's worth wins.

1024
00:51:15,200 --> 00:51:18,720
Speaker 2: Texans Chiefs, you could have gusts like twenty five thirty

1025
00:51:18,719 --> 00:51:22,279
Speaker 2: miles per hour a long corner to corner, it's gonna

1026
00:51:22,280 --> 00:51:24,360
Speaker 2: feel like ten degrees. Rams Eagles you could have gusted

1027
00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:28,600
Speaker 2: around twenty miles per hour, but looks like eight to ten.

1028
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 2: That could impact some long passes, maybe some long field goals.

1029
00:51:32,320 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 2: In this one, it doesn't look like there's gonna be

1030
00:51:36,000 --> 00:51:39,040
Speaker 2: maybe gusts up to thirteen, so it's not really impactful.

1031
00:51:39,480 --> 00:51:40,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's right on that edge.

1032
00:51:40,880 --> 00:51:43,120
Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, I mean, I but the sustain is like,

1033
00:51:43,800 --> 00:51:48,000
Speaker 2: but it's gonna feel like it's seven degrees. I'm just

1034
00:51:48,040 --> 00:51:51,120
Speaker 2: too super curious see how the Bills play this that

1035
00:51:51,120 --> 00:51:53,759
Speaker 2: that's probably my biggest overall concern is like do they

1036
00:51:54,920 --> 00:51:57,399
Speaker 2: change their ways because I think that they just say, like, look,

1037
00:51:57,400 --> 00:51:59,360
Speaker 2: we're gonna prevent exposed to plays like they normally do,

1038
00:52:00,560 --> 00:52:03,040
Speaker 2: and you're gonna make the Ravens Marscille. They're gonna take

1039
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:07,279
Speaker 2: time the bill's methodical and then and the way that

1040
00:52:07,360 --> 00:52:10,040
Speaker 2: they drive the field. Like, but if the bills like

1041
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:12,120
Speaker 2: say like, hey, we're gonna change up what we do,

1042
00:52:12,320 --> 00:52:15,400
Speaker 2: like McDermott changes up, it's not easy to do. But

1043
00:52:15,440 --> 00:52:17,120
Speaker 2: if they like just sell out to say, we're not

1044
00:52:17,120 --> 00:52:19,759
Speaker 2: gonna let Lamar and Henry beat us and there's no

1045
00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:22,279
Speaker 2: flowers like you try to beat us through the air,

1046
00:52:23,800 --> 00:52:25,800
Speaker 2: maybe that leads to a bunch more explosive plays. I

1047
00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:26,200
Speaker 2: don't know.

1048
00:52:26,600 --> 00:52:28,640
Speaker 1: I mean that, yeah, that that's could happen, but I

1049
00:52:28,680 --> 00:52:31,880
Speaker 1: just feel like, yeah, I'm just out within reason. We know,

1050
00:52:32,000 --> 00:52:33,880
Speaker 1: like we know teams are gonna switch up their schemes

1051
00:52:33,920 --> 00:52:36,319
Speaker 1: a little bit for the playoffs, but I think like

1052
00:52:36,400 --> 00:52:38,680
Speaker 1: those could like there's always gonna be flaws when you're

1053
00:52:38,680 --> 00:52:40,960
Speaker 1: talking about an under fifty plus. But I think that

1054
00:52:41,160 --> 00:52:44,000
Speaker 1: from what we know about McDermott, he's still not gonna

1055
00:52:44,000 --> 00:52:46,880
Speaker 1: want to like just come out and jeopardize like this

1056
00:52:47,040 --> 00:52:48,719
Speaker 1: chance like after WOS it's a chief so many times,

1057
00:52:48,800 --> 00:52:50,960
Speaker 1: like he's gonna be aggressive in spots, but I don't

1058
00:52:51,000 --> 00:52:53,480
Speaker 1: know if it's gonna be selling out to you know,

1059
00:52:53,600 --> 00:52:56,840
Speaker 1: and I think he would rather make this raven offense. Uh,

1060
00:52:57,000 --> 00:52:59,120
Speaker 1: drive the field without Zay Flowers and just you know,

1061
00:52:59,160 --> 00:53:01,120
Speaker 1: if he can just limit some of the exposures because

1062
00:53:01,280 --> 00:53:04,680
Speaker 1: they've they have their linebackers back like you know, Milano

1063
00:53:04,719 --> 00:53:06,879
Speaker 1: ban and they they're switching up like schemes in terms

1064
00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:09,160
Speaker 1: of you know who does what, and they different spies

1065
00:53:09,160 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 1: and different schemes with the you know, who takes Henry

1066
00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:14,480
Speaker 1: and who takes uh, who takes the quarterback? Because like

1067
00:53:14,480 --> 00:53:16,400
Speaker 1: the Steelers, I can't believe this, they just had like

1068
00:53:16,480 --> 00:53:18,560
Speaker 1: one they just did like the scrape whatever you know,

1069
00:53:18,560 --> 00:53:21,759
Speaker 1: with the guy loops around and then the safety replaces

1070
00:53:22,080 --> 00:53:24,920
Speaker 1: they and Watt gets the running back. They just did

1071
00:53:24,960 --> 00:53:26,600
Speaker 1: that for the whole game and it's like the third

1072
00:53:26,640 --> 00:53:28,719
Speaker 1: divisional matchup. They didn't they didn't switch up their scheme

1073
00:53:28,719 --> 00:53:30,600
Speaker 1: at all. So I think the I think the Bills

1074
00:53:30,640 --> 00:53:33,279
Speaker 1: are going to be a little more multiple and yeah,

1075
00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 1: so that that's kind of why I like, uh, it's

1076
00:53:35,640 --> 00:53:37,959
Speaker 1: under I just think there's we're just we're just looking

1077
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:40,680
Speaker 1: at this teams like, oh, they're these are just offensive juggernauts.

1078
00:53:40,680 --> 00:53:44,040
Speaker 1: But both of these coaches, I think or both of

1079
00:53:44,080 --> 00:53:46,040
Speaker 1: these yeah, both of these defensive coaches I think are

1080
00:53:46,040 --> 00:53:47,920
Speaker 1: gonna want to gonna throw in some wrinkles too. I

1081
00:53:47,920 --> 00:53:49,440
Speaker 1: guess you know what I mean.

1082
00:53:49,280 --> 00:53:51,279
Speaker 2: I'm just Devil's advocate. I don't hate that.

1083
00:53:52,920 --> 00:53:53,200
Speaker 3: All right.

1084
00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:56,560
Speaker 2: For my third pick and the sixth overall of the

1085
00:53:56,560 --> 00:54:00,439
Speaker 2: division round six pack, staying in Raven's bell, I'm gonna

1086
00:54:00,440 --> 00:54:04,480
Speaker 2: go with Isaiah Likely over thirty three and a half

1087
00:54:05,560 --> 00:54:09,800
Speaker 2: receiving yards. I think the number is too low. I

1088
00:54:09,800 --> 00:54:11,560
Speaker 2: don't think say Flowers is going to play. Even if

1089
00:54:11,560 --> 00:54:13,320
Speaker 2: he does, I don't think he's gonna be fully effective,

1090
00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:15,839
Speaker 2: and he's not gonna be at one hundred percent. And

1091
00:54:15,880 --> 00:54:17,120
Speaker 2: if he does, they're still going to go with a

1092
00:54:17,120 --> 00:54:18,800
Speaker 2: ton of two tight end sets. Likely is gonna be

1093
00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:20,760
Speaker 2: out there a ton. He's gonna get even more favorable

1094
00:54:20,760 --> 00:54:23,359
Speaker 2: matchups against the Bills in the middle of the field,

1095
00:54:23,360 --> 00:54:26,560
Speaker 2: against their safeties. I guess their linebackers who have to

1096
00:54:26,600 --> 00:54:29,799
Speaker 2: be so concerned about the run here and the Bill.

1097
00:54:29,880 --> 00:54:31,400
Speaker 2: What the Bills do is they either give up like

1098
00:54:31,520 --> 00:54:33,080
Speaker 2: they give a lot of exposive runs, but they also

1099
00:54:33,120 --> 00:54:35,720
Speaker 2: like will stuff a bunch of runs on early downs.

1100
00:54:36,080 --> 00:54:37,680
Speaker 2: So I think the Ravens could be in a bunch

1101
00:54:37,680 --> 00:54:39,800
Speaker 2: of you know, they might get a lot of Henry

1102
00:54:39,840 --> 00:54:42,080
Speaker 2: first down big runs Lamar first down big runs, but

1103
00:54:42,080 --> 00:54:44,239
Speaker 2: there's gonna be some times when they're in second, third

1104
00:54:44,280 --> 00:54:47,360
Speaker 2: and long, and I think likely is going to be

1105
00:54:47,360 --> 00:54:50,959
Speaker 2: open all over in the middle of the field. Here

1106
00:54:51,440 --> 00:54:55,080
Speaker 2: last week mentioned it Ravens multiple backs of tight ends

1107
00:54:55,120 --> 00:54:58,279
Speaker 2: eighty nine percent of snaps without flowers last week. Here

1108
00:54:58,280 --> 00:55:02,319
Speaker 2: are the wide receiver routes twenty one Whilas fifteen, I ten,

1109
00:55:02,560 --> 00:55:05,759
Speaker 2: Miller five Walker one likely was out why twenty eight

1110
00:55:05,800 --> 00:55:11,200
Speaker 2: times in the slot fifteen he ran nineteen routes. He

1111
00:55:11,320 --> 00:55:16,239
Speaker 2: was basically their wide receiver one last week and they

1112
00:55:16,239 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 2: were that was gonna blowout. I don't expect the Ravens

1113
00:55:18,719 --> 00:55:20,799
Speaker 2: to blow up the Bills. I expect the game state

1114
00:55:20,840 --> 00:55:23,359
Speaker 2: to be favorable to Lamar having to throw for most

1115
00:55:23,400 --> 00:55:26,359
Speaker 2: of this game. And I do think the Bills are

1116
00:55:26,360 --> 00:55:29,600
Speaker 2: going to have to focus more on the run. Can't

1117
00:55:29,600 --> 00:55:35,040
Speaker 2: defend over the middle of the field. Safeties are extremely vulnerable,

1118
00:55:35,360 --> 00:55:39,240
Speaker 2: linebackers are vulnerable in coverage. Might have to go heavier

1119
00:55:39,440 --> 00:55:43,400
Speaker 2: more snaps, which makes them even more vulnerable. So yeah,

1120
00:55:43,560 --> 00:55:47,000
Speaker 2: I like likely to have a huge day here.

1121
00:55:47,800 --> 00:55:47,920
Speaker 3: Well.

1122
00:55:47,920 --> 00:55:50,319
Speaker 2: Also, well, I'll get your thoughts there. You like that

1123
00:55:50,360 --> 00:55:50,680
Speaker 2: as well?

1124
00:55:51,320 --> 00:55:53,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, I think I think the marks too low

1125
00:55:53,760 --> 00:55:55,920
Speaker 1: on Likely. I totally agree. I think either way you

1126
00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:59,239
Speaker 1: look at it, you know Baltimore want you know, Buffalo

1127
00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:01,760
Speaker 1: tends to be smaller, but they're gonna have to play bigger.

1128
00:56:01,800 --> 00:56:04,560
Speaker 1: So that just helps with having a guy like Likely

1129
00:56:04,600 --> 00:56:07,240
Speaker 1: who is still a tight end, still has some size,

1130
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:09,719
Speaker 1: but also has that speed that now he's the guy

1131
00:56:09,760 --> 00:56:11,680
Speaker 1: that can because you're always gonna have Andrews on the field,

1132
00:56:11,680 --> 00:56:14,359
Speaker 1: like we know that, so Likely, by adding him into

1133
00:56:14,440 --> 00:56:17,439
Speaker 1: the mix, you kind of you have that edge back

1134
00:56:17,480 --> 00:56:20,799
Speaker 1: where you still have a size guy, uh you know

1135
00:56:20,840 --> 00:56:23,440
Speaker 1: in your run game, but you have that speed and

1136
00:56:23,480 --> 00:56:27,359
Speaker 1: that wide receiver like ability outlide. So yeah, I think

1137
00:56:27,400 --> 00:56:29,799
Speaker 1: he had and you know he would if they you know,

1138
00:56:29,880 --> 00:56:31,840
Speaker 1: if he could he can match up on a corner

1139
00:56:31,880 --> 00:56:33,799
Speaker 1: and you know, do some you know, if that's how

1140
00:56:33,800 --> 00:56:35,560
Speaker 1: they want to play it too. So there's a lot

1141
00:56:35,560 --> 00:56:37,560
Speaker 1: of different ways which I think. I think like that,

1142
00:56:37,760 --> 00:56:38,200
Speaker 1: I don't think.

1143
00:56:38,320 --> 00:56:40,080
Speaker 2: I don't think Flowers are gonna play like I think.

1144
00:56:40,280 --> 00:56:42,920
Speaker 1: I don't there I'm not expecting I'm not expecting.

1145
00:56:44,040 --> 00:56:44,320
Speaker 2: Play.

1146
00:56:44,960 --> 00:56:47,000
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, I would see he's doubt I would consider

1147
00:56:47,040 --> 00:56:50,359
Speaker 1: him doubtful even though there's no like designations yet. But uh,

1148
00:56:50,640 --> 00:56:53,200
Speaker 1: if you just look at likely routes run rate over

1149
00:56:53,239 --> 00:56:55,759
Speaker 1: the past few games, you know, most of the season's

1150
00:56:55,760 --> 00:56:58,720
Speaker 1: been in that fifty sixty percent range, kind of splitting

1151
00:56:58,840 --> 00:57:01,000
Speaker 1: down the middle with Andrews. Maybe Andrew started getting a

1152
00:57:01,000 --> 00:57:04,120
Speaker 1: little more and over the stretch run but last couple

1153
00:57:04,120 --> 00:57:07,600
Speaker 1: of games it's been right up around eighty percent seventy

1154
00:57:07,640 --> 00:57:10,480
Speaker 1: five eighty percent, So and like you said, there's been

1155
00:57:10,520 --> 00:57:13,680
Speaker 1: no numerous blowouts, so there's even some room to grow

1156
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:16,240
Speaker 1: on at the more you're passing the more the more

1157
00:57:16,320 --> 00:57:18,800
Speaker 1: that rate can kind of creep up. So yeah, I

1158
00:57:18,800 --> 00:57:20,880
Speaker 1: think like we is, Yeah.

1159
00:57:20,720 --> 00:57:21,880
Speaker 2: This will be like one of them could be one

1160
00:57:21,880 --> 00:57:23,720
Speaker 2: of the most favorable game scripts for the mare throwing

1161
00:57:23,720 --> 00:57:24,120
Speaker 2: all year.

1162
00:57:25,960 --> 00:57:28,640
Speaker 1: For six pack, we got Sam Laporta over forty eight

1163
00:57:28,640 --> 00:57:31,880
Speaker 1: and a half for seving yards Baltimore first half money line,

1164
00:57:31,920 --> 00:57:35,080
Speaker 1: Isaiah Likely over thirty three and a half for seving yards,

1165
00:57:36,000 --> 00:57:39,640
Speaker 1: At Schultz over three and a half, catches Rams Eagles

1166
00:57:39,680 --> 00:57:43,160
Speaker 1: first half under twenty two and a half, and then

1167
00:57:43,200 --> 00:57:47,280
Speaker 1: we got Bill's Ravens under fifty one and a half.

1168
00:57:47,440 --> 00:57:51,040
Speaker 1: So that's our divisional round six pack, and now it's

1169
00:57:51,040 --> 00:57:52,120
Speaker 1: time for our coaches pepto.

1170
00:57:52,760 --> 00:57:54,680
Speaker 2: Every time we get ready to play, I just want

1171
00:57:54,720 --> 00:57:55,240
Speaker 2: to throw up.

1172
00:57:55,600 --> 00:57:59,080
Speaker 1: How sick I'm watching you guys play. Just how bad.

1173
00:57:58,960 --> 00:57:59,520
Speaker 2: Can it get?

1174
00:57:59,840 --> 00:58:04,120
Speaker 1: And once again we're going to NFL Film's legend, my guy,

1175
00:58:04,240 --> 00:58:07,600
Speaker 1: John Fassenda and after reasons to this, I mean you

1176
00:58:07,680 --> 00:58:12,200
Speaker 1: got it. Dedicated to Talton Schultz and Isaiah Likely and

1177
00:58:12,280 --> 00:58:14,160
Speaker 1: m Sam Laporter, because I just think it's kind of

1178
00:58:14,160 --> 00:58:18,000
Speaker 1: funny to imagine him talking about those guys who are

1179
00:58:18,040 --> 00:58:19,760
Speaker 1: just not all important in the grand scheme of things,

1180
00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:24,480
Speaker 1: but very important to us. This week on the division

1181
00:58:24,480 --> 00:58:25,080
Speaker 1: around six.

1182
00:58:25,000 --> 00:58:28,240
Speaker 3: Pack the Sky.

1183
00:58:28,280 --> 00:58:31,840
Speaker 4: His eyes are always on the sky because out of

1184
00:58:31,840 --> 00:58:33,560
Speaker 4: the vast blue dome comes out.

1185
00:58:33,520 --> 00:58:36,640
Speaker 3: For which he searches. In a world where the quarry

1186
00:58:36,720 --> 00:58:39,560
Speaker 3: pursues the hunter, this man is the hunter.

1187
00:58:40,800 --> 00:58:44,080
Speaker 4: This man scampers to an isolated position on the fringe

1188
00:58:44,120 --> 00:58:44,720
Speaker 4: of iolans.

1189
00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:47,040
Speaker 3: For his job is not to.

1190
00:58:47,040 --> 00:58:50,960
Speaker 4: Collide and bruise and howl and punish, but rather, his

1191
00:58:51,080 --> 00:58:54,280
Speaker 4: job is to streak beneath the diamond sky with one

1192
00:58:54,320 --> 00:58:58,560
Speaker 4: hand waving free to make the circus catch. It's his

1193
00:58:58,680 --> 00:59:00,840
Speaker 4: job and his glory to write eyes on the voice

1194
00:59:00,880 --> 00:59:04,720
Speaker 4: of the cheering throng. For this man is the receiver,

1195
00:59:05,880 --> 00:59:06,880
Speaker 4: a man whose.

1196
00:59:06,680 --> 00:59:09,400
Speaker 3: Labor it is to try and catch the win.

1197
00:59:10,720 --> 00:59:15,360
Speaker 4: So dream on, young America, dream of the beacon, Dream

1198
00:59:15,400 --> 00:59:15,960
Speaker 4: of these.

1199
00:59:15,840 --> 00:59:19,960
Speaker 3: Miracle men with miracle hands. Dream of these men.

1200
00:59:20,080 --> 00:59:23,760
Speaker 4: Some would speed, some would race, and some would moves.

1201
00:59:23,800 --> 00:59:29,200
Speaker 3: That's steps in. So these men are the receiver. They

1202
00:59:29,240 --> 00:59:31,800
Speaker 3: are the men who try and catch the win.

1203
00:59:34,320 --> 00:59:37,800
Speaker 1: Reporter Schultz, likely, I don't know if you've ever had

1204
00:59:37,800 --> 00:59:42,160
Speaker 1: this many tight ends in a six pag quiz. Yeah, yeah,

1205
00:59:42,200 --> 00:59:45,280
Speaker 1: we need the Kate out and legendary call. I think

1206
00:59:45,760 --> 00:59:47,760
Speaker 1: everyone was on Kate Otten last block. Seak was last

1207
00:59:47,840 --> 00:59:49,800
Speaker 1: year and he came through bigs so hoping for another

1208
00:59:50,120 --> 00:59:53,760
Speaker 1: spot like that. But let's get into our money line

1209
00:59:53,840 --> 00:59:54,720
Speaker 1: underdog parlay.

1210
00:59:57,520 --> 01:00:02,480
Speaker 2: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1211
01:00:02,640 --> 01:00:03,920
Speaker 2: money line parlay.

1212
01:00:05,160 --> 01:00:07,920
Speaker 1: And because we switched the six pack up, you know

1213
01:00:07,960 --> 01:00:10,960
Speaker 1: this time of year there's less games. It's funny because

1214
01:00:11,080 --> 01:00:13,440
Speaker 1: for everyone listening out there stuck and actually debated not

1215
01:00:13,760 --> 01:00:15,600
Speaker 1: doing the segment, We're like, oh, well, you know, we

1216
01:00:15,640 --> 01:00:17,000
Speaker 1: could just do the six pack and kind of get

1217
01:00:17,000 --> 01:00:20,680
Speaker 1: through everything there, but we decided to do moneyline parlay,

1218
01:00:21,000 --> 01:00:23,240
Speaker 1: and what do you know, we got it, got it

1219
01:00:23,280 --> 01:00:28,479
Speaker 1: to cash with the Houston Texans and the Los Angeles Rams.

1220
01:00:28,560 --> 01:00:31,960
Speaker 1: So that was nice to see. We're gonna go with

1221
01:00:32,080 --> 01:00:36,200
Speaker 1: some our favorite long shot bets for divisional rounds. So

1222
01:00:36,280 --> 01:00:38,640
Speaker 1: and we'll get the parlay odds for that as well.

1223
01:00:38,720 --> 01:00:40,720
Speaker 1: So stuck, we got let's go.

1224
01:00:40,880 --> 01:00:45,920
Speaker 2: Likely touchdown quar to one out there anytime touchdown. Just

1225
01:00:45,960 --> 01:00:50,360
Speaker 2: talked about it with his prop and could be some bills,

1226
01:00:50,400 --> 01:00:55,120
Speaker 2: red zone regression, but great matchup. And yeah, I think

1227
01:00:55,160 --> 01:00:57,080
Speaker 2: he's gonna find his way. And Nansa came close last week.

1228
01:00:57,080 --> 01:01:00,320
Speaker 2: I got an eight to one parlay. There's just riding

1229
01:01:00,320 --> 01:01:02,240
Speaker 2: on him and he got down to like inside the five.

1230
01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:04,320
Speaker 2: I was hoping they rewarded him, but they did not.

1231
01:01:05,480 --> 01:01:08,680
Speaker 2: And uh yeah, so I like likely my long long

1232
01:01:08,760 --> 01:01:11,240
Speaker 2: long shot that I consider.

1233
01:01:12,560 --> 01:01:12,800
Speaker 3: C. J.

1234
01:01:12,960 --> 01:01:19,000
Speaker 2: Stroud to lead the game in rushing forty oh.

1235
01:01:19,480 --> 01:01:21,200
Speaker 1: That is that that could?

1236
01:01:21,640 --> 01:01:23,720
Speaker 2: I mean yeah, because the Sheeps have all like this

1237
01:01:23,800 --> 01:01:30,760
Speaker 2: huge conglomerate. They go pass heavier and uh the mixing.

1238
01:01:31,240 --> 01:01:33,200
Speaker 2: I don't think they're gonna have much success running the ball.

1239
01:01:33,880 --> 01:01:36,520
Speaker 2: And you just could see Stroud scrambles and then like

1240
01:01:37,040 --> 01:01:39,240
Speaker 2: if they're down late, he's just like running all over

1241
01:01:41,360 --> 01:01:43,000
Speaker 2: I don't know. I thought forty to one was kind

1242
01:01:43,000 --> 01:01:43,440
Speaker 2: of crazy.

1243
01:01:44,160 --> 01:01:45,919
Speaker 1: So I like that. I like that I could see

1244
01:01:45,920 --> 01:01:49,160
Speaker 1: that because Stroud hit a second gear on that scramble

1245
01:01:50,080 --> 01:01:53,240
Speaker 1: yeah last week, So these things, you know, if that's

1246
01:01:53,280 --> 01:01:55,160
Speaker 1: what it takes, and it guess very well might take

1247
01:01:55,200 --> 01:01:57,160
Speaker 1: that to sustain any kind of offense. I mean, we

1248
01:01:57,200 --> 01:01:59,120
Speaker 1: saw it happened with Sam Donald to wait in that

1249
01:01:59,200 --> 01:02:01,200
Speaker 1: rams gamer should have been taken off the whole time

1250
01:02:01,240 --> 01:02:04,760
Speaker 1: instead of holding the ball falling backwards. So yeah, Stroud

1251
01:02:04,880 --> 01:02:06,840
Speaker 1: might have to do some of that. And it's funny

1252
01:02:06,840 --> 01:02:10,880
Speaker 1: because another candidate for that same market, well, I'm actually

1253
01:02:10,920 --> 01:02:13,120
Speaker 1: gonna go up for my long shot Xavier Worthy for

1254
01:02:13,200 --> 01:02:17,200
Speaker 1: touchdown at plus two twenty. But I think he's an

1255
01:02:17,200 --> 01:02:19,600
Speaker 1: interesting bet to lead the game in Russian as well,

1256
01:02:19,640 --> 01:02:22,320
Speaker 1: just because, like you said, the running bat kind of

1257
01:02:22,320 --> 01:02:24,480
Speaker 1: cance each other out tough matchups, but where he's been

1258
01:02:24,520 --> 01:02:28,120
Speaker 1: getting a lot of carries these last few down the stretch,

1259
01:02:28,200 --> 01:02:30,880
Speaker 1: you know, so I think that could be an extension

1260
01:02:30,920 --> 01:02:32,880
Speaker 1: of the run game for the Chiefs in this one

1261
01:02:32,920 --> 01:02:36,560
Speaker 1: as well. And he has three rushing touchdowns, which is

1262
01:02:37,080 --> 01:02:41,280
Speaker 1: pretty rare for a wide receiver to have, you know, period,

1263
01:02:41,440 --> 01:02:43,880
Speaker 1: and especially one that's not being used like a debo

1264
01:02:44,520 --> 01:02:48,520
Speaker 1: Samuel so Worthy in each of his last three games

1265
01:02:48,520 --> 01:02:50,560
Speaker 1: before resting or yeah, I think he played a one

1266
01:02:50,560 --> 01:02:52,880
Speaker 1: snap in Week eighteen meaningless game, but in those three

1267
01:02:52,920 --> 01:02:56,120
Speaker 1: games before that, three carries for thirty, three carries for

1268
01:02:56,160 --> 01:02:58,720
Speaker 1: ten and two carries for ten. He got a touchdown

1269
01:02:59,040 --> 01:03:02,600
Speaker 1: in the in the Cleveland game and a touchdown opening Day,

1270
01:03:02,640 --> 01:03:05,800
Speaker 1: and also a touchdown from three yards out against the

1271
01:03:05,880 --> 01:03:09,560
Speaker 1: Saints early in the year. So I like him to

1272
01:03:09,600 --> 01:03:13,640
Speaker 1: have that little added boost on the ground, and mentioned

1273
01:03:13,680 --> 01:03:16,840
Speaker 1: that he's just got the best matchup in my opinion

1274
01:03:17,520 --> 01:03:19,440
Speaker 1: of the Chiefs receivers because he can go on the

1275
01:03:19,480 --> 01:03:22,320
Speaker 1: slot and avoid you know, Stingley and those guys that

1276
01:03:22,440 --> 01:03:24,760
Speaker 1: kind of you know, dictate his matchup. And he's got

1277
01:03:24,760 --> 01:03:27,320
Speaker 1: the speed in what could be, you know, so a

1278
01:03:27,360 --> 01:03:29,680
Speaker 1: weather game, a game where it could be a little

1279
01:03:29,680 --> 01:03:32,920
Speaker 1: bit of a grind at times. So yeah, I like Worthy,

1280
01:03:32,920 --> 01:03:35,480
Speaker 1: who's he's also scored in his last two games as

1281
01:03:35,480 --> 01:03:37,280
Speaker 1: a receiver as well, So a lot of ways for

1282
01:03:37,360 --> 01:03:39,160
Speaker 1: him to do it. Part way, both of these four

1283
01:03:39,160 --> 01:03:42,440
Speaker 1: to one for likely Worthy at plus two twenty and

1284
01:03:42,480 --> 01:03:45,640
Speaker 1: you get plus fifteen hundred's a nice little juicy one.

1285
01:03:45,680 --> 01:03:50,800
Speaker 1: But yeah, like like both of these a lot individually.

1286
01:03:51,520 --> 01:03:54,240
Speaker 2: Anytime touchdown, I don't know what would the odd would be.

1287
01:03:54,320 --> 01:03:59,280
Speaker 2: But Tigan Quatoriano, Yes, he's gonna play.

1288
01:03:59,280 --> 01:04:02,840
Speaker 1: You've gotta be active, right, he's activated. Okay, we're good.

1289
01:04:03,400 --> 01:04:04,680
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna be activated.

1290
01:04:04,760 --> 01:04:07,560
Speaker 1: That's hilarious because I told, I told, I told, uh

1291
01:04:07,680 --> 01:04:09,640
Speaker 1: Gifford and the guys on the convinced. I think it

1292
01:04:09,640 --> 01:04:11,920
Speaker 1: was the convinced me. Like pregame last week, I was like,

1293
01:04:12,000 --> 01:04:14,560
Speaker 1: if this guy's back, dude, we got to hammer his touchdown.

1294
01:04:15,200 --> 01:04:17,400
Speaker 1: But he wasn't that he didn't get activated. But that's

1295
01:04:17,400 --> 01:04:18,160
Speaker 1: funny that you say that.

1296
01:04:18,200 --> 01:04:20,240
Speaker 2: This year he has seven career catches, two touchdowns. One

1297
01:04:20,240 --> 01:04:22,840
Speaker 2: came against the Chiefs. He's been hurt. I expect him

1298
01:04:22,880 --> 01:04:25,080
Speaker 2: to get the spot, that Kate Stover spot because he

1299
01:04:25,120 --> 01:04:27,360
Speaker 2: just got placed on IR. But he was a full

1300
01:04:27,400 --> 01:04:31,080
Speaker 2: participant in practice yesterday, tight end. We talked with the

1301
01:04:31,120 --> 01:04:33,760
Speaker 2: Chiefs matchups against the tight end. He also just if

1302
01:04:33,760 --> 01:04:35,800
Speaker 2: the Chiefs blow them out, could be in there.

1303
01:04:35,600 --> 01:04:38,000
Speaker 1: Like late yeah, yeah, exactly.

1304
01:04:38,440 --> 01:04:40,680
Speaker 2: Get a bullshit touchdown. So I'm gonna be looking out

1305
01:04:40,720 --> 01:04:42,560
Speaker 2: for through some cash change if I see anyone. But

1306
01:04:42,800 --> 01:04:44,640
Speaker 2: if they have to go more too tight end seat

1307
01:04:44,680 --> 01:04:46,960
Speaker 2: stuff with blocking and you know he might get some

1308
01:04:47,040 --> 01:04:49,720
Speaker 2: run here it's just him irv Smith and.

1309
01:04:49,720 --> 01:04:54,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, or Smith's revenge game incoming, so coutory. But uh, yeah,

1310
01:04:54,920 --> 01:04:57,520
Speaker 1: that's a good I like that. Yes, that'll do it

1311
01:04:57,560 --> 01:05:00,320
Speaker 1: for us. Uh. Before we get out of here, just

1312
01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:02,920
Speaker 1: want to remind all our listeners. If you're watching or

1313
01:05:02,960 --> 01:05:05,800
Speaker 1: listening on your phone and you want to instantly tail

1314
01:05:05,880 --> 01:05:09,160
Speaker 1: any of today's picks, go to the episode description. We've

1315
01:05:09,200 --> 01:05:11,720
Speaker 1: got DK links for all of these picks. If you

1316
01:05:11,720 --> 01:05:15,800
Speaker 1: click those links on your mobile device, your DraftKings app

1317
01:05:15,960 --> 01:05:20,240
Speaker 1: will open with the bets slip for that pick. It's

1318
01:05:20,360 --> 01:05:24,640
Speaker 1: very very convenient, a great way to tail right away

1319
01:05:24,760 --> 01:05:28,240
Speaker 1: and not miss the best lines. That is a wrap

1320
01:05:28,280 --> 01:05:31,280
Speaker 1: for us. Appreciate y'all listening. As always. You can hear

1321
01:05:31,320 --> 01:05:34,760
Speaker 1: more of me every week going throughout the postseason with

1322
01:05:34,800 --> 01:05:38,360
Speaker 1: my guy Sean Kerner talk and Fantasy DFS player projections,

1323
01:05:38,400 --> 01:05:41,000
Speaker 1: all that good stuff for the postseason on the Fantasy

1324
01:05:41,160 --> 01:05:44,320
Speaker 1: Flex podcast. And of course you can hear Stucky his

1325
01:05:44,560 --> 01:05:49,560
Speaker 1: final college football episode of the season tomorrow over on

1326
01:05:49,800 --> 01:05:54,360
Speaker 1: Big Bets on Campus the podcast. Make sure you check

1327
01:05:54,400 --> 01:05:57,120
Speaker 1: out Big Bets on campus. You can find stuck on

1328
01:05:57,520 --> 01:06:00,280
Speaker 1: X at Stucky Too. I'm at Chris Raybond. We're at

1329
01:06:00,320 --> 01:06:04,240
Speaker 1: those same handles on the free award winning Action Network

1330
01:06:04,480 --> 01:06:08,880
Speaker 1: app Let's Go Keegan Contriano, Baby, Let's get this fight.

1331
01:06:09,120 --> 01:06:18,000
Speaker 2: Tight end weekend. Let's Go.

1332
01:06:20,080 --> 01:06:23,520
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1333
01:06:23,920 --> 01:06:26,760
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1334
01:06:27,040 --> 01:06:29,680
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1335
01:06:29,760 --> 01:06:30,520
Speaker 2: hundred Gambler