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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: The single best idea, and it's a different single best idea.

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Speaker 2: We had a magical day to day on the Jobs Report.

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Speaker 2: The team, I mean the team literally blew up the show.

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Speaker 2: We had people calling in. We didn't know who they were.

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Speaker 2: They just want to come on, and we're like no, no,

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Speaker 2: and we said yes, no, yes, whatever, and it was

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Speaker 2: right to the end. We finished week with Ed Ludlow

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Speaker 2: of Bloomberg Technology. I mean, I don't know why we

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Speaker 2: did it. He had to brag about Chelsea beating Tottenham.

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Speaker 2: But the answer is, after an exhausting week and the

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Speaker 2: amazing jobs report and the ever more amazing markets overlaid

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Speaker 2: by am Jen and Apple is it was an extraordinary

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Speaker 2: day to do a single best idea. And we're going

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Speaker 2: to do it differently now sometimes. And I'll give you

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Speaker 2: a window into the show. We have guests booked up

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Speaker 2: sequentially and they're listening before they go on, and therein

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Speaker 2: we've got a zoom loop where I see some of

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Speaker 2: the zooms, but the control room sees all of the zooms,

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Speaker 2: and I don't know who's listening who's not, but they

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Speaker 2: like to listen into the show to get a sense

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Speaker 2: of what we're talking about. So Mark Zandy's on from

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Speaker 2: Lootie's Analytics Iconic, and all of a sudden I learned

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Speaker 2: Claudia Sam is listening because she's on deck, and so

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Speaker 2: we do all. We call it an audible and we

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Speaker 2: literally say, let's audible this and bring in Zandy and

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Speaker 2: PM together. How special is this? And to explain us

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Speaker 2: to you, this is University of Pennsylvania Academics with Michigan

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Speaker 2: Academics and Michigan economics, and they're really too. The historical

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Speaker 2: construct of every college is different, and penn is decidedly nuanced,

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Speaker 2: indifferent and interesting than the really world class work at

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Speaker 2: Michigan as well. Here together, Mark Zandy and Claudia.

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Speaker 3: I think the low on unemployment correct me if I'm wrong, Claudie,

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Speaker 3: I know you look at it really careful. Is like

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Speaker 3: three four not too long ago, maybe six nine months ago,

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Speaker 3: where at three to nine, you know, your rule of thumb,

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Speaker 3: you're heuristic would say we should be nervous about recession here,

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Speaker 3: not to some future. Do I have that right? And

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Speaker 3: what would it take for your alarm bells to go

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Speaker 3: off that unemployment's rising too high? Too fast.

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Speaker 1: Anytime we see the unemployment rate rise, we should keep

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Speaker 1: an eye on it, like that's not a good thing. Now,

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Speaker 1: this is for the unemployment rate, and in general, I

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Speaker 1: look at the three month averages and so the low

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Speaker 1: that we saw last year was three and a half

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Speaker 1: percent of that three month average, and today we're on

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Speaker 1: average at three point eight percent, So three tens percentage

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Speaker 1: point rise. Sometimes it comes into a recession, but it

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Speaker 1: is not a reliable indicator that we are in one.

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Speaker 1: That reliable and indicator would be a five tens percentage point.

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Speaker 1: Like I said, we should always pay tension to rise

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Speaker 1: in that unemployment rate, and yet there are not alarm

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Speaker 1: bells here.

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Speaker 2: Really special Mark Sandy Moody Analytics, and Claudia sam Now

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Speaker 2: at New Century greatly. You appreciate that moment, really, really

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Speaker 2: a special People say to me, what's the most special

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Speaker 2: economics moment that we've ever had, And there's you know,

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Speaker 2: there's one day in Chicago had the honor of interviewing

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Speaker 2: the laureates Friedman and Lucas back to back. But I

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Speaker 2: would say in all the years, the most amazing two

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Speaker 2: and fortuitous conversation was Kenneth Rugoff and Joseph Stiglitz together

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Speaker 2: in Davos, and I do want to point out for

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Speaker 2: your weekend reading Joe Stiglitz out with a magnificent new book.

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Speaker 2: Every conservative should read it, every liberal. To me, it's

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Speaker 2: got the tone of his globalization and our discontent. So

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Speaker 2: we'll have to see how the stiglet puss done. We'll

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Speaker 2: get the Laureate on here in the coming days. He's

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Speaker 2: doing a media tour, he's doing like the View, and

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Speaker 2: you know Kelly Clarkson and you know the rest of

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Speaker 2: them as well. We'll get Joe Stigletz on here at

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Speaker 2: some point. That was a shock last night to see

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Speaker 2: what Apple did with her cash flow. It's not whether

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Speaker 2: I predict it or not, and I don't do by hotel,

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Speaker 2: but certainly the dividend increase of four percent, the one hundred

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Speaker 2: and ten billion share buyback, a record buy back in

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Speaker 2: our history, speaks volumes. Someone that could collate all of

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Speaker 2: this with the economics of the moment, but also critically

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Speaker 2: with the stock market and a lift up we've seen

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Speaker 2: today is Urian Timor, without question, the most sophisticated chart

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Speaker 2: analysis in the world. Here is urine in Timor of fidelity.

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Speaker 4: So the good news for this year and why I

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Speaker 4: think that the cyclical bull market is not over yet,

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Speaker 4: is that earnings are growing. You know, the started with

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Speaker 4: the fourth quarter earning season that was a really good,

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Speaker 4: solid one. This one is another solid one. You know,

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Speaker 4: eighty percent beating by nine percentage points or so. That's

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Speaker 4: fairly you know, typical companies generally beat. But the ear

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Speaker 4: inex momentum is there, and that takes the pressure off

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Speaker 4: the FED to immediately give the market those rate cuts

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Speaker 4: that you know it craved just six months ago. And

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Speaker 4: the FED is not, you know, that restrictive. It's restrictive.

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Speaker 4: You know, if inflation's three three and a half, if

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Speaker 4: that's where we're settling in for now and a real

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Speaker 4: rate of one percent, you're looking at four four and

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Speaker 4: a half as the neutral rate. The FEDS at five

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Speaker 4: and three eights. Most versions of the tailor rule that

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Speaker 4: I track are between five and six. So FEDS where

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Speaker 4: it should be and the market is not overly dependent

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Speaker 4: on rate cuts here.

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Speaker 2: I don't think way too much math there in dynamics

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Speaker 2: for a Friday, no question about it, Eurine timor just outstanding.

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Speaker 2: I want to make clear we did that conversation before

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Speaker 2: the jobs report, and I'm not going to mince words,

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Speaker 2: it would have been a different Urine timor seven minutes

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Speaker 2: later when we did get the stunning jobs report. We're

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Speaker 2: out on Apple car Play, Android Play as well. Somebody

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Speaker 2: wrote in they said, is Lisa Matteo and Miami at

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Speaker 2: Formula One? Jason Kelly's there. I thought Lisa was there

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Speaker 2: with him. She's out in Chicago with Aner Ragrana doing

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Speaker 2: a wonderful panel. So we say, maybe we'll have Lisa

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Speaker 2: Matteo with us back on Monday. We're on YouTube search

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcasts again. Bloomberg Podcasts is sort of the foundation

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Speaker 2: of what we're piecing together in this new digital world,

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Speaker 2: and on Apple Podcasts it is single best idea